Seeking Alpha

edgetraderplus'  Instablog

edgetraderplus
Send Message
Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
My company:
edgetraderplus
My blog:
edgetraderplus
  • BHP And RIO - Are Stocks Different From Futures? No. 0 comments
    Feb 28, 2013 1:08 AM | about stocks: BHP, RIO

    Wednesday 27 February 2013

    We asked a metals specialist to select two stocks of interest. BHP and RIO were the choices. Are stocks any different from futures?
    Absolutely not. Why not? All markets are a function of supply and
    demand. When demand is greater, price will rise; when supply is
    greater, price will decline. It is the essence for any market, stocks
    or futures.

    As a norm, we do not analyze stocks. In fact, we know nothing about BHP and RIO, beyond assuming they are mining stocks. Our premise is,
    when you reduce any market to price and volume, you get the most accurate information available in order to make buy/sell decisions,
    regardless of whatever is being analyzed.

    Most tend to view fundamentals as a true measure for future price
    prospects. Many use technical analysis to interpret, even "predict"
    where price is likely to go. We use charts, a form of technical analysis,
    but not in the traditional sense. The most important elements for
    understanding the markets comes from reading the price and volume
    relationships in developing market activity. There is no need for
    artificial tools like RSI, moving averages, Stochastics, MACD, etc, etc.
    These are all mechanical measures, using past tense activity imposed
    upon present tense prices to somehow "understand" future
    development. We view them akin to a stopped clock that works with
    precision, twice a day. Not so much for most of the other times.

    When those with access to the most information, with the smartest
    analysts, and the greatest amount money to spend for research, the
    controlling influences behind a market, decide to use that information
    by placing orders buy or sell, all decisions are translated into price and
    volume, and they immediately become a permanent record, along with
    all other buys and sells that comprise the overall market.

    What we will call smart money cannot totally hide what they are doing
    because activity can be tracked by reading the interaction between
    price and volume. All controlling sources require volume to execute
    their trades. Great effort is made to "disguise" their hand, but they are unable to hide from the volume trails left behind. We may not be privy
    to those who make all the important decisions, but we get a proxy
    "view," as it were, by looking over their shoulder as they execute in
    the marketplace.

    If one knows what smart money is doing, one need not know anything
    else about what is being traded. We put that hypothesis to the test
    with BHP and RIO.

    Higher monthly time frames are used to put a market into a context. It reveals the trend, if any, and important areas of successful or failed
    activity that may impel or hinder present tense developing market
    activity. The information gleaned is strictly what the market is saying
    about the collective participants.

    What immediately stands out on the monthly is a lack of a defined
    trend. A closer look at bar activity since the small range 2011 high
    shows how price moves down easier than up. The wider range bars
    occur when price moves lower showing [EDM], Ease of Downward
    Movement.

    Compare the single down bar in May 2012 and how it took seven
    months to retrace that one month. The rally from that low has been
    labored, which is what the market is saying.

    BHP M 27 Feb 13

    The weekly provides greater detail. August of 2011 is when price really accelerated to the downside, a definite sign of weakness. Be aware
    that most of what we say is based upon factual and indisputable
    market data, and from these observable facts, inferences can be
    drawn.

    Volume increased sharply on the decline. Pay close attention to
    exceptionally high levels of volume because it is generated by
    controlling influences, what we call "smart money." Mention was made
    that smart money cannot always hide its hand because it needs to
    transact so many shares. In this instance, smart money was bailing.

    This is confirmed just three weeks later when a retest rally fails to go
    any higher, and that sets an area of resistance moving forward. We
    use that failed level to draw a horizontal line in order to observe how
    price reacts to it in the future.

    In January 2012, the rally stops just short of the upper resistance line, that inability an indication of more weakness, and another horizontal
    line is extended into the future from that lower high to observe future
    price behavior as it approaches this lower resistance area.

    From the 2012 mid-year low at 60, we see a labored rally back to the
    lower of the two failed price areas, and BHP cannot even reach the
    highs of the second area, again. The market is telling us to expect
    more weakness. That observation is confirmed by a move sideways for
    seven weeks. In the 8th week, the market reinforces its message as
    price drops sharply, the EDM erasing the previous 10 week's effort to
    go higher.

    Support comes in at the 60 area, but a look at the daily says some
    potential support exists a little higher.

    BHP W 27 Feb 13

    The daily is an example of why you should always start with higher
    time frames. Taken by itself, it could be said the daily has been in an
    uptrend until January 2013. An awareness of the higher time frames is
    so important, for this reason.

    The 10 week sideways activity failed at an obvious resistance area a
    fact known from the weekly and monthly charts that is not apparent
    on the daily. One thing known about smart money participants is, they sell high, buy low. Would you imagine smart money was actively buying just below resistance? More than likely, the public were accumulating long positions, and now, they are trapped.

    The small range at the 80 plus high, seven bars ago, just under known resistance, was a huge red flag. Small ranges at highs is the market
    letting us know that demand just is not there. If you did not sell by
    the end of the day, BHP was a definite sell on the opening, next day.

    There has been a small measure of support around 74 -75, but when you compare it to the decline from 80, this has been a very weak
    response, at best, and more weakness is likely to follow. A look at
    Wednesday's intra day activity, 27 February, when this was written,
    shows immediate resistance at 76 and 78. How price responds to these areas will provide yet more information about what to expect, moving
    forward.

    Again, all of the information gathered is coming from the market. We
    do not even have to know if this is BHP, AAPL, or corn futures. All
    markets are a function of supply and demand.

    BHP D 27 Feb 13

    There are obvious similarities between BHP and RIO. The resistance
    formed in April 2010 became support, once price rallied above it in
    October. This is pointed out because that price level was where
    support broke down dramatically, at "A," and persists as resistance
    to this day. The market's present is almost always related to its past,
    in some way, and those Remembrances of Things Past, [Marcel
    Proust], is the market's way of offering important guidance for making
    decisions.

    The failed probe higher in January 2012 confirmed the importance of
    the 61+ area as resistance. The wide range EDM decline in May 2012 is the market telling us sellers are in total control. This, too, was
    confirmed by the labored rally over the next 8 months to retrace what
    was lost in just one month.

    RIO M 27 Feb 13

    We thought we had downloaded BHP by mistake, the charts look so
    similar. Comments on the chart pretty much tell what is needed in
    order to know if one should be a buyer or a seller, all based on
    feedback from market activity.

    RIO W 27 feb 13

    The zig-zag lines from the November low connect swing highs and
    swing lows. The easiest definition of a trend down is lower swing lows
    and lower swing highs. The daily just made a lower swing low, and the
    fact that price has not rallied away from support is telling us RIO
    continues to be weak.

    The sharply increased volume in February, the highest since December,
    occurred as price declined, the market's way of letting us know that
    sellers remain in control. 55 is immediate resistance on the daily, if RIO
    can rally, and even stronger resistance is at 56 -57. If 52 - 53 fails to
    hold, price can decline back to the weekly TR low, the 41 area.

    The market offers the best and most reliable information. One can be
    oblivious to the fundamentals, as we are, and still be able to operate
    quite well in knowing when to buy or sell.

    As an aside, some see metals stocks as an alternative for owning the
    underlying metals. They are not. Each should be treated separately,
    based upon individual developing market activity.

    RIO D 27 Feb 13

    Themes: Precious Metals Stocks: BHP, RIO
Back To edgetraderplus' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.