Sunday 24 April 2011
We have two charts. The daily shows a question mark on the
viability of breaking through the current resistance of 1337.74.
The weekly says, so what else is new and argues for continuation.
Starting with the former:
The last time price saw 1337.50, back in February, it led to the
largest sell-off in the recent upmove. The smallness of the range
at the high says there was a lack of demand, otherwise, the range
would have| extended higher. The lack of demand was confirmed
by what followed, a one month decline.
Note how large the ranges were and how volume increased as
price dropped. Compare that to the character of the last rally to
get price back to where it was a few months ago. The daily ranges
are smaller, and volume has declined. Plus, the rally was a bit more
labored in time: 18 days down, 25 days to recover.
Thursday's close was a higher high, a higher low and a higher close,
but the location of the close is at the bottom of the range. A weak
close tells us that sellers were in control because buyers could not
keep the price higher. In addition, this weak response occurred at
an obvious resistance level that everyone can see, even the
technically challenged. Normally, that would be a cause for concern,
but this is the Fed/POMO-driven S&P rally that has defied many
negative technical signals.
Why should this one be any different? The one positive aspect is
HOW the market got to resistance. From a point of weakness, on
Monday, 4th bar from the end, price rallied strongly with high-end
closes. The daily chart alone suggests an "iffy" situation at known
resistance. Time to look at the next higher time frame to see what
Here we have a roll-over in contracts, so the February high, the
March contract at the time, is a bit higher than the current high of
the June contract. What you see on the last weekly range is what
is called an Outside Key Reversal, [OKR], and it is as its name
connotes, a reversal, but of a specific variety. The low is lower
than the previous week's low, the high is higher than the previous
week's high, and the close can vary as to bar location. In the
instant week, the close is near the high.
An OKR is usually a sign of strength as the market reverses
course, but the weekly trend has been up and nothing, trend-wise,
is really being reversed. Seeing that, we then looked backwards
to see if we could learn anything in order to look forward. There
were four other such OKR bars, all designated by arrows on the
chart, none of which really reversed an existing trend. But the
name still applies.
In every instance, the OKR close was high-end. Also in every
instance, the market went higher for a minimum of two weeks, the
January OKR, to longer periods as seen by the others. If history
is to repeat, one would have to say we are looking at a no-brainer
Could it be so?