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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Gold And Silver - Comex Prices Manipulated? Sill "Accurate." 0 comments
    Apr 6, 2013 2:18 PM

    Saturday 6 April 2013

    Charts do not lie. There are a slew of highly respected PMs "gurus"
    with extensive followings. None we know of have been on target in the past year. Not only are the trends still down, prices made new recent
    lows, again, within the trading range, but nowhere near the "prices will reach levels you cannot believe" area. [Insert your own expectation or belief]

    We have been advocating the purchase of physical gold and silver,
    consistently and at any price. The point is not to "make money," but
    to preserve and/or create wealth.

    The purpose in buying, and personally holding, physical PMs is viewed
    much like that of essential needs, like shelter, as an example. You buy
    a house to satisfy a need for shelter. Timing is not the most critical
    factor because it is the security and comfort of ownership that
    matters most. Once that need is taken care of, it becomes less
    important if the value declines because it is a necessity, not something that is traded like baseball cards.

    There will come a time, and based on current charts no one knows
    when, that prices for PMs will become prohibitive and/or governments
    will do what they can to inhibit [steal] ownership, maybe even making
    it criminal to own or use in transactions.

    It does not matter if the markets are manipulated and kept artificially
    low. The one thing that is certain is, prices are low! Comex and London are currently the only measures for price in gold and silver. Does it
    matter that there is a higher premium for larger purchases from
    nations, like Russia, China, and India paying closer to $2,000 the ounce for gold? No. Those countries are buying by the tonne and unable to
    buy large quantities for less. Their purchases may be a more accurate reflection for the "real" price of gold, and if that were true, you are
    looking at discounted prices, "blue plate specials."

    For the man or woman on the street, as it were, it may be harder to
    get delivery of 1,000 oz bars of silver, or 100 oz bars of gold, but they
    can be had. The fact that there are delays in the relatively smaller
    quantities is a sign that one had better "get" while the getting is good.
    Smaller purchases of rolls or individual coins are okay, but premiums
    are increasing, and there have been a few spotty problems on
    availability.

    As to the futures, we have been guarded throughout, making some
    profitable trades and some unprofitable ones, but not with any degree
    of risk exposure because the trends have been down. Along with
    recommending to buy the physical, we have also been consistent
    in not recommending the buying of futures.

    The gurus may make for interesting reading with piles and piles of
    statistics. Western countries are creating infinite amounts of fiat in
    desperate attempts to cover their lies and confiscation of wealth via
    inflation, [the insidious hidden results increased fiat creates, the
    transfer of wealth to governments which is far worse than the outright theft as occurred in Cyprus]. All these compiled "fundamentals" are
    known factors by everyone. If they are true, and no sane person
    believes they are not, then why aren't gold and silver trading at much
    higher prices? Why are gold and silver back to trading range lows?

    The fiat creators, the manipulators control price. If that were not true, PMs would be a lot higher in price just on an inflation-adjusted basis
    alone! Almost everyone, outside of the "insiders," is and has been
    under-estimating the staying power of those in power. They will not
    give up control. They will resort to any means [now shockingly]
    possible.

    If you still think your money is safe in any bank, well, we cannot think
    of anything to say. Enjoy whatever returns your money may be
    getting, but just do not be surprised of not getting your money
    returned, at all. What current world financial news is proving beyond
    a doubt is, "Anything can happen," and what happens will not be good.

    One more time! Buy physical gold and silver, as best you can, and hold it personally, [and obviously responsibly].

    Here is another look at the "manipulated charts," [we do not know of a better source], to see how developing market activity is "developing,"
    under the circumstances. With "guru" estimates very high, and prices
    currently relatively low, the charts remain the most reliable
    barometer, for obviously, they do not lie, whatever may be the lies
    behind them.

    No conclusion drawn about the current trading month for it has just
    begun, and no one knows how/where it will end. The chart comments
    need not be repeated, but the labored decline since the last swing
    high is a message from the market...just not fully played out.

    The primary trend remains up, but its current correction keeps price
    range-bound, net a positive trend sign.

    GCM M 6 Apr 12

    It is almost impossible not to have "sentiments" for much higher prices, giving the messy financial circumstances created by Western
    governments, and almost entirely by those who are unelected
    "officials" calling all the shots. We say this because of our ultimately
    bullish bias for the PMs, yet maintaining a respectfully pragmatic
    approach to the futures.

    The lack of buyer ability to get anywhere near the upper channel line,
    arrow 2, is a sign of weakness. While price is back near the lows of
    the TR, we continue to look for positive signs of a turnaround, even
    though none have been confirmed.

    The failed probe lower could be a potential turning point. Stress is
    place on the adjective "potential," for until it is confirmed it remains
    only that, and odds are against it, until it gets confirmed. This is more
    reading developing market activity, as it currently stands, for it could
    change for the worse, next week, but we like where this otherwise
    bullish pattern is occurring, at an area of support. There are zero
    indications to act upon it, but it does bear watching as potential
    support.

    GCM W 6 Apr 13

    Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The trend is
    down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The three points
    made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary
    opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how strongly held.

    The "observations" are facts, but their implications are more of an
    opinion, however "reasoned"

    One cannot help but note that the last bar on the chart just erased
    two strong decline days. What happened to the sellers? They are in
    charge in a down trend. This kind of activity is contrary to sellers
    being in control. In fact, at least this part, buyers were able to
    overcome the seller's efforts based on the wider of the last 3 bars
    being a rally with a strong close, erasing the higher volume effort from
    the previous two days of selling.

    In actuality, those two "sell" days could well be smart money buying, in the form of short-covering, as weak longs bailed out at the recent new lows, which is why Friday showed an "easier" time rallying. This is not
    sufficient reason for trading from the long side in the futures markets,
    but just an indication from which to be alert.

    Buying against the trend, and at new recent lows, is poor decision-
    making, with no edge.

    GCM D 6 Apr 13

    While no conclusion can be drawn from the monthly chart, the level of volume at this early stage draws attention. Increased volume is a sign
    of increased effort from both buyers and sellers. Markets have a high-
    degree of logic to them, and logic tells us that the volume effort, while equal, favors buyers who are demonstrating an ability to keep sellers
    from driving price lower at an area in trend when it is to their
    advantage.

    We keep saying buying, but the form of buying is likely short-covering and not new net long buyers entering. It may develop that way, but
    that kind of development takes time to turn a market around.

    SIK M 6 Apr 13

    There are similar facts on the silver chart, as was discussed in gold.
    The volume activity of the last three bars is also similar. The caveat
    for silver, [not mentioned for gold, but to a lesser extent is also
    applicable], is the 4th bar from the end. It is a wide-range lower bar
    with a weak close, and it resulted in a break lower out of the trading
    range. The equivalent bar in gold was still within the TR.

    In both instances, that 4th bar showing EDM, [Ease of Downward
    Movement], will act as resistance on rally attempts. Watch how far
    price can rally, [or not] into it to get a read on whether silver will see
    more rally attempts, moving forward. As a rule, one should never buy
    the first rally from a low area. There are no reason to buy futures, yet.

    SIK D 6 Apr 13

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