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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Gold And Silver - Bullish Hopes In Bear Market, Trend Wins. 0 comments
    Apr 13, 2013 2:19 AM

    Saturday 13 April 2013

    What happened?! is the question so many are asking about Friday's
    waterfall in prices. A better question is, "Why?" Outside of the
    insiders, no one really knows. Yes, there can be some fairly cogent
    explanations, lots of glib answers, but no one knows, for sure.

    What we do know for sure is that the market is always the final
    arbiter. Throughout the decline of the past nearly few years, there
    has been a continued glimmer of hope for a turnaround in
    recognition of the infinite printing of fiat, countries drowning in debt, and the only viable solution, at least in the Western world, has been more debt!

    Who issues that debt? The central bankers, IMF, EU, Basel
    Committee, all unelected, non-represented factions that run the
    lives of the Western world under the sanction of the officially-
    elected-but moneychangers-beholding governments.

    Friday, 12 April 2013, was a sign of desperation. It may become
    known or apparent at some point in the future, but if we strictly
    adhere to the message of current developing market activity, as
    displayed in the charts, almost all market surprises occur within the
    trend. As our Commentary title states, amidst all the bullish hopes
    for PMs to soar to considerably higher levels, the market trend wins, as it always does.

    Our comments have not been immune to those hopes, as we have
    strongly advocated the purchase and holding of physical gold and
    silver, but the comments have also been qualified with the advice to not buy futures, simply because the charts were sending that very
    message. The advice to buy and hold physical gold and silver is as
    important as ever. We have no clue what prompted the Western
    central bankers to crush the markets lower, but it will ultimately
    fail, as history as amply proven.

    "If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs...
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt..."
    Edited from
    Rudyard Kipling's "If"

    The point is to keep a level head in what appears to be turmoil for
    the real turmoil is on the other side, the opposition to PMs as a
    known alternative to the issue of worthless fiat. We cannot say
    nothing has changed, for price just got lower, but the attempt to
    destroy whatever opposes fiat debt is obviously a high priority for
    central planners, and their message is very clear: they will stop at
    nothing to continue their fraud.

    Instead of trying to figure out the unknown, look at what is known
    for certain, and that is the results of the decision-makers who
    cannot hide their intent from the trail left behind, price and volume
    "footprints" for everyone to see, or for those who choose to see
    what too many overlook or ignore.

    One point worth remembering is the charts reflect the paper market,
    and the paper market is in the total control of central banks, so you see what they want you to see, and what they want you to see is
    the apparent failure of PMs to do well. They are succeeding, to that
    extent. Everything else central planners are doing is failing, and
    there is little reason to believe they will succeed in this game plan,

    The trend is always the number one factor, then the location of
    price within the trend. Gold is moving sideways, but still within an
    overall bullish condition, based upon the facts presented. The
    current location within the trend is neutral to slightly negative.

    GCA M 13 Apr 13

    Insiders will never reveal their "hand," especially the central banking
    cabal, but we can read what they are doing, overall, by the clues
    left behind. Within the down channel, there was a definite clue in
    the weakness of the last rally that failed to reach the upper
    channel line. Weak rallies within a bear trend inevitably lead to lower prices. As we always say, one can never know how the market will
    unfold, and certainly no one was prepared for how current market
    activity unfolded on Friday.

    Curiously, the overall volume for the week was not that strong. We
    construe that as an indication that the number of weak sellers and
    stops was not that great.

    GCA W 13 Apr 13

    We presented this Bearish Spacing in our last commentary, when we stated: "Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The
    trend is down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The
    three points made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how
    strongly held."

    The comment stresses opinions are not facts. The trend is very
    much a fact. [First par. after 2nd chart, plus 3rd chart, Comex
    Prices Manipulated? http://bit.ly/YYX5HV]

    One truism to always keep in mind about the markets is: "Anything
    Can Happen." Friday was one of those days. Remember it in that

    GCM D 13 Apr 13Silver

    Silver is already under the 50% retracement from swing low to swing high, which is a general indication of a weaker trend. The bullish
    spacing is smaller than gold's, but price is holding support a little

    As with gold, no one knows how much lower silver can go, and there is no evidence of a turnaround.

    SIA M 13 Apr 13

    We certainly held out "hopes" for a turnaround in previous analyses,
    still not arguing against the tape for taking a long position in the
    futures, and as a consequence, did not even consider the short
    side. That is what a bias will do.

    As pointed out below, given the manner of how price unfolded within the TR, it cannot be a surprise that price continued lower. The
    extent of Friday's decline was a surprise, and it goes back to the
    importance of knowing, "Anything Can Happen."

    SIA W 13 Apr 13

    All anyone can do is wait to see how the market reacts to Friday's
    sell-off. It never pays to guess or anticipate, and no one
    anticipated how price declined so much. Let the market inform us as to what the next development will be, for the market is never
    wrong, and the market never lies. Trust it.

    SIK D 13 Apr 13

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