Tuesday 14 May 2013
Half way through the month, and there has been but one trade
recommendation, and it was a losing one, at that. Here are a
representative group of charts from various sectors that illustrate the
problem for trading in these days of central planners taking over.
The only trade recommendation for May, so far, was the Australian
Dollar, primarily because it was in a protracted trading range, [TR], and near perceived potential support after forming a recent higher swing
low. You go with the facts available at the time of decision-making
and adjust, if necessary, as new developing market activity occurs.
The day identified as "dangerous" is because of the exceptional size of the range and how one can get financially "hurt" when they occur. We are constantly aware of that kind of potential in currencies which is
why we tend to stay away.
The corn chart is representative of the grains for April and May. There has been little to recommend in either direction, even with the trend favoring shorts.
Not much going on in the softs, either. Sugar remains at lows, and
coffee is, well, coffee, a New York market that can undress position
traders very quickly.
Neither gold nor silver were buys after the selling onslaught[er] by JPM in mid-April. Picking bottoms is a trading fool's game, and finding a
place to go short, advantageously, did not happen. at least for us.
The bond market is one of fiction, and it is very difficult to trade that
which is not real. The same is true for the Fed's stock market, the
primary [perhaps only] impetus for the current rally on relatively scant
volume. This is another market of pure fiction that is being manipulated by the Fed to "appear" safe and the only "game in town, as it seeks
to sucker in as much money as possible, making alternatives almost
The greatest risk in this bubble environment is less a consideration of return on money as it is a concern for a return of one's money.
Not much else to recommend.