edgetraderplus'  Instablog

edgetraderplus
Send Message
Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
My company:
edgetraderplus
My blog:
edgetraderplus
  • Gold And Silver - Markets Provide Us The Best Information 0 comments
    May 25, 2013 11:11 AM

    Saturday 25 May 2013

    We cannot control the markets, but we can control how to respond towhat they are saying. The paper market has been turned into a
    circus, thanks to JP Morgan, and abetted by the exchanges, COMEX
    and LME. Focus has to remain on the physical market, for it is where
    one can expect to find true value for price. What everyone has learned
    is that as price has declined, demand has disproportionately
    skyrocketed.

    We have written extensively on the acquisition of physical gold and
    silver, regardless of price, because no one can know when the central bankers will lose control and price will erupt like Eyjafjallajökull. The
    world is in the middle of a huge central bank bubble, of which there are many sub-bubbles, as it were. [Anyone who pretends to believe
    whatever information is being disseminated by NWO-owned mainstream media, none of which makes any economic sense, and those who do
    not fully believe, (or at all), what is being said but do not know where else to turn, stay away from all central banks and central planners
    news or information.]

    In addition to creating bubbles that will fail, the Western central
    bankers, and their puppet governments, are also doing battle with
    Eastern countries, mostly BRICS, but more and more countries are
    aligning with them and against the impending demise of fiat regimes.
    Western central banks are on the losing end, as their fraudulent
    rehypothecation of gold, several times over, and the virtually depletedreserves now rest comfortably in the hands of Russia, China,
    India, Turkey, et al, none of which will tolerate any more of the
    reckless mismanagement of the West. It will not end well for those
    of us in the Western sphere of influence.

    The most coveted of all assets around the world has been gold, on
    a grand scale, and silver, on a smaller scale, but grand relative to
    diminishing supply. As we asserted last time, it does not matter what
    the fundamental picture says, for now, the moving forces are those
    in control of the paper market, and the populations of Western
    countries. The power will not be ceded willingly nor readily, so one
    cannot rely upon the known demand factors, no matter how bullishly
    presented. That information is already in the market, and it has not
    created the large mark-up most have been anticipating. It ain't
    happening, yet.

    The paper markets, however much manipulated or disconnected from
    the physical, are the only barometer available, for now. Under normal
    circumstances charts, which reflect the market forces, are the most
    reliable source of information. Here is what they are saying, at this
    point in time.

    In our last article, we said that time was on the side of those currently in control, and it would take longer than most expect before gold and
    silver will reach previous highs and yet higher, after that, [The True
    Story Is About Time, http://bit.ly/12iELsC]. In another previous
    article, we explained how wide range bars can lead to range control for several more bars to follow, and longer, [It Could Get Uglier And Take
    Longer, http://bit.ly/18AlO9G], and we will give more examples of why
    any recovery will take more time.

    The one caveat would be a V-type bottom, when price takes off from
    a low. Because Anything Can Happen, and no one knows in advance
    how a market will unfold, it is mentioned as a possibility.

    Trading Range, [TR], - A, shows the wide range bar from April, and the close is mid-range the bar. Very often, that bar's range will contain
    price behavior for several bars into the future. TR - B is pointed out
    to demonstrate that an ensuing TR can take quite some time. Going
    into the last week of May, the range has been under the close of April, telling us the attempt to rally has been weak.

    Even with the sharp decline from last month, and the overall decline
    since September of 2011, there is still bullish spacing. It occurs when
    the current swing low is above the last swing high, from 2008. It tells
    us that buyers have been willing to buy into the market without
    waiting to see how the last swing high will be tested, an overall bullish condition.

    GCA M 24 May 13

    The importance of a wide range bar is that it tells us of the likelihood
    of a trading range. One can either sell the top of the range and buy
    the bottom of the range, or wait, knowing that the market is unlikely
    to rally higher or break lower, for an unknown period of time and then
    follow the breakout.

    You can see how price has already spent five weeks within the wide
    range bar with a close in the middle. The high of the range has
    provided resistance, and the lower portion has been support. Last
    week's close was in the upper portion of that range, telling us buyers
    were in control at lower price levels.

    Keep in mind, however, that the trend remains down, and the onus is
    on buyers to show a change in strength. We do not see that, yet, but this is the paper market. Buyers have amply demonstrated demand in
    the physical market, but it is no avail, for now.

    GCA W 24 May 13

    The wide range bar scenario is uniformly persistent over all three time
    frames. The daily activity looks weakest of all, but still within the
    range parameters described. Using the "knowledge of the market,"
    from the low of the range, we did use it to advantage to make a
    short-term trade off the lows, with success. It was an against-the-
    trend-trade, but we used the smaller time frames and the knowledge
    that the lower end of the TR would be support, as a basis for it.

    GCM D 24 May 13

    Silver tells a more interesting story. It has been weaker than gold, but the current developing market activity shows promise within a
    weakened environment. Bullish spacing has been eliminated, and the
    swing high from 2008 has proven to be support, at least for now.

    We drew down sloping channel lines, and interestingly, silver is holding
    above the 50% of the channel range, not going to the bottom demand
    line. The underlying implications are bullish, within the context of a
    prevailing downtrend. It does not mean one should be buying futures,
    based on this, just that price is holding relatively well in a bear market.

    Entering the last trading week for the month, at this late date, the
    range is relatively small, which tells us that buyers are meeting the
    efforts of sellers, preventing sellers from moving price lower. It does
    not mean price will not go lower before month's end, but based on the
    facts available, it is a positive sign. It could take more time for buyers to turn the futures market around, but it has to start from somewhere.

    SIA M 24 May 13

    Wide range bars are not inviolate, evidence by the weekly chart. Price did go under the low of the wide range bar, but note the location of
    the close, at the high of the bar and just above the last week's low-
    end close of a selloff week.

    SIA W 24 May 13

    The chart comments relate the current daily activity. Just like TRs
    reveal important high/low information, failed probes also provide clues
    about the character of the market. The 3 points made explain what
    the clues are. The lack of continuation higher speaks to the overall
    trend being down, weighing on attempts to rally.

    We continue to recommend buying the physical, regardless of price,
    and be very selective if/when trading the futures.

    SIN D 24 May 13

Back To edgetraderplus' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.