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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Gold And Silver - It Is Silver Sending A Message. 0 comments
    Jul 5, 2013 11:52 PM

    Friday 5 July 2013

    When the markets "speak," we "listen." For all of the non-stop bullish"news" about the unprecedented demand, more for gold than
    silver, and all of the talk about how useless the COMEX paper
    market is, it has been the paper market that the forces of supply
    and demand have been heeding. If it were otherwise, the
    unprecedented demand for gold would have the price of gold higher
    than the bogus paper market. Yet, that has not been the case.

    When will this bear market in PMs turn around? When it does, and not a moment before. This is not some flip answer, it just happens to be
    the way all bear markets end: when they do. We have seen calls for
    a turnaround for several weeks now, none of which have been even

    If you want to make rabbit stew, first, you have to catch the rabbit.

    First, lets' see some concrete signs that a bottom is in before the
    regurgitation of "Gold is going to $10,000!" starts showing up in a host
    of new articles pandering for attention. It sure did not work for the previous ones.

    The best way is to decide for yourself. Anyone can read a chart, [just not necessarily well], so let us go to the most reliable source, the
    market, and see what the prices of gold and silver have to say about
    what everyone else has been saying about them. People have been
    known to exaggerate, even lie in their "opinions," but the market never does either. It just is.

    The issue we have with gold is a lack of an immediately identifiable
    support area. There is support, a little lower, and for that reason, we
    do not see a strong message coming from gold, just yet. On the other hand, [never take anything for granted in the markets], the fact that
    price is holding above obvious support is an indication of underlying
    strength. IF that is the case, we still need to see some concrete sign
    of stopping activity before price can turn around.

    GCA M 5 Jul 13

    We show some potential support resting under current the price.
    Silver, unlike gold, is already at an area of support. We will get to
    that, shortly.

    GCA W 5 Jul 13

    The reminder about the importance of how a wide-range bar usually
    contains future price activity is shown to keep it fresh in your mind
    when you see it again in the future. If you pay attention to charts,
    you will definitely see this pattern repeat over and over.

    As we did these charts, in order as presented, after seeing the daily
    silver chart, you can come back and revisit this one with a different
    "eye" for its content. The difference between gold and silver was the
    synergy in all the time frames in silver, not so for gold.

    It is a great example of reality is always there to be seen, but
    sometimes we fail to see it. The truth is often under the brightest
    light, while people look elsewhere for a "hidden" message.

    GCQ D 5 Jul 13

    Here is silver on the monthly, already into an identifiable area of
    support. We should be looking closely for some form of stopping
    action, telling us price may stop going down.

    SIA M 5 Jul 13

    Last week's bar stands out as a red flag for its price and volume. The same bar in gold was too similar to one that had already failed, so it
    could not be viewed in a more important vein as this one. We give a
    more detailed analysis on smart money and high volume activity on the daily chart, below. Suffice it to say that what is true on the daily is
    also true for the weekly. It is just more visible and easier to explain
    with more bar examples.

    When you understand the explanation given on the daily, come back
    and look at this one again so you increase your discerning eye more
    when it may seem less is apparent.

    SIA W 5 Jul 13

    Finally! The explanations on the chart as to why silver is sending a
    message. What needs to be understood is that there is no
    confirmation that a bottom is in. Before a trend can turn, it must stop going down.

    No one can definitively say the trend has stopped going down, and
    even when it does, then we must deal with how long it may take to
    reverse. That can take many more months, or a year or two. It could turn around very quickly, but we cannot know the odds for that event, were it to occur. What we do, in the interim, is prepare! If this
    happens, then do that.

    It never pays to buy the first rally after a bear market ends. There is
    usually a form of retesting of the lows before a market can begin to
    move higher. This is the first time we have talked about specifically
    preparing for a possible change in trend, at least from a pragmatic
    perspective. Sentiment for a change has been long-standing, [but
    of no avail.]

    Keep accumulating physical gold and silver, a pragmatic stance we
    have advocated during the entire market decline, but for a different
    purpose. We cannot say the turnaround for gold and silver is "rabbit
    stew" ready, just yet. If the end is near, there will be many more
    signs. The market never lies.

    SIU D 5 Jul 13

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