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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Silver - The PM Bellweather? Possibly. 0 comments
    Jul 8, 2013 12:06 AM

    Sunday 7 July 2013

    A shout-out to I M Vronsky and his crew, [Gold-Eagle], for reaching its475 Millionth view since it began on 1 January 1997. Congrats!

    This is a singular look at silver because of its current position on
    the charts that may be giving our first hint of potential bottoming
    activity. It is a "fashionable sport" for many to call a bottom, or
    a top, even though "they" are consistently wrong. No one can tell
    what has not yet happened, aka the future.

    Charts speak the loudest, [admittedly, not always the clearest, but for a reason], and they never lie. Why do charts never lie? They just
    are. A chart is the true record of all buy and sell decisions executed,
    coming from the most informed to the least informed. Most of the
    problems lie with those who form an opinion, and how they choose to
    impose it onto what any given chart "says."

    We prefer to follow the message of a chart, not lead or predict what it may, or may not do. There is a high degree of logic in charts, and we
    try to draw conclusions from them, just not always successfully. As a
    road map, reading charts is superior to fundamentals, opinions, and
    mechanical technical tools which all use past tense information, impose it on the present tense, and expect it will divine the future tense.

    It appears that silver is at a potential bottoming area, and very close attention to how price develops from today forward may provide key
    information from which one can profit. To start, everything in a chart is potential until it is confirmed. The adjective bottoming, as in
    ongoing, is used because a bottom of any market is a process. It does not happen in just one day, and it can sometimes take several months
    to reverse a down trend. Always keep that in mind, and let the market prove itself to prevent needless risk exposure for those insisting to be
    first.

    It can be seen from the Quarterly chart that the current correction
    has run deep, but price is nowhere near taking out the 2008 swing low, from which the bull move up began. Few ever look at a Qtrly chart,
    but the few who do are in the "smart money" category. Smart money
    does not care about daily charts,[ as most everyone else pays such
    close attention to them.], because they are only interested in major
    moves, and it is these longer term charts that show them best.

    SIA Q 30 Jun 13

    Longer term charts are used for context, to put a market into a
    perspective, ultimately for making a trade determination. Clearly, the trend in silver, and gold, is down. What we can learn from the monthly is the fact that price has reached an important support area.

    The current price has entered the identified support, and we explain
    that support is an area, not just a specific line or price. Consequently, what becomes important, as the lower time frame charts provide
    greater detail, is to watch how price responds/reacts to the target
    area. What we are looking for are clues in a change of behavior, for it
    is a change in behavior that leads to a change in a trend.

    SIA M 7 Jul 13

    The weekly more clearly shows the area of support at which silver has
    now reached. The daily reveals much more.

    SIA W 7 Jul 2013

    A support line was drawn only on the weekly to show the importance
    of the $26 level, but $26 shows up on each of the higher time frames,
    and from that, we know when $26 is retested, it should offer
    resistance, certainly the first time around. We also noted how the
    Ease of Downward Movement, [EDM], sliced right through it, once
    broken.

    Price is always important, but when coupled with volume, it can be the most telling of all information, and it is always right up to date, for
    everyone to see as it develops. Whenever you see high volume
    moves, it is your key that smart money, [SM], is active in the market.
    SM moves in such volume, sometimes it just sticks out. For the most
    part, SM tries to hide its intent, but it is almost impossible to do at
    important market turns.

    The public and speculators do not create high volume; they react
    to it. Everyone knows it is axiomatic that SM sells tops and buys
    bottoms. The public is always on the other side.

    Here is where the logic comes in. Note the first high volume bar in
    June. [We were off one bar to the left when we drew it in]. Price is breaking under a small congestion area. The next highest volume bar,
    just to the left of the oval, is sharply higher than the first. It is when price broke under 21 and 20 on the same day. So many weak longs
    and stops were washed out. [Guess who was on the other side?]

    Within the oval, there are four trading days to discuss. Red volume
    bars means the close on that day was lower than the day before.
    Compare the first red price and volume bar with the one 4 days earlier,
    when price broke under 21 and 20. The volume of the first bar within
    the oval is almost equal to the down volume bar from 4 days ago, but
    compare the size of the trading range. The first price bar in the oval
    is much smaller. Why?

    Volume increased sharply, and the bar was smaller. What the market
    is letting us know is that buyers entered the market and were more
    than matching the effort of sellers. Were that not true, the price
    range would have extended lower.

    The 2nd bar in the oval is much less subtle. Volume was greater than
    the day before, but look at the tiny price range. Buyers stopped
    sellers cold! It was like opening a basket at the 18.50+ area, and the
    buyers said, "We will take as much as you have to offer." For all of
    that increased effort, [volume], sellers were totally spent. Buyers
    were totally in control at a price level and trend that had been
    dominated by sellers. There is more!

    Next day, the highest contract volume and highest volume in months
    produced a price bar that rallied and closed on the high, producing an
    Outside Key Reversal Day, [OKR]. This could be the bottom. It needs
    to be confirmed. If it is not the bottom, the market is telling us we
    are very close to seeing one. Either way, what we saw two weeks
    ago was an important change in market behavior.

    If we were ego-driven and wanted to impress, we could say this is the bottom. It may be, but we still will wait for confirmation.

    We are seeing a price change from weak hands into strong hands,
    [in the paper market]. The 4th bar in the oval was another up day.
    Volume was the smallest of the 4, and note how the price range
    narrowed, and the location of the close was under mid-range the
    bar. Buying had been expended is what that bar was saying, and
    we see price corrected right after. Most of the buying has been
    from short-covering.

    The last bar on the chart shows a down day, wide range and high volume. While price did decline, it did not make a new low for the
    increased effort. We now get to watch more developing market
    activity that will confirm, or not, the logical conclusions extracted
    from the market itself. Now news. No opinions. No mechanical tools. Just price and volume that have combined to tell the story, straight
    from the market's mouth.

    Silver stackers, these lower prices are a gift you should keep on
    taking. Stay tuned.

    SIU D 7 Jul 13

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