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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Silver - Pushing On A String 0 comments
    Sep 28, 2013 5:24 PM

    Saturday 28 September 2013

    Little in the way of news has transpired in the past week that could
    have an impact on the silver market. The main stage has been set for
    some time, regarding all the known factors affecting silver, to date.
    There is no need to review any of them, at this point.

    What can be noted is that the CFTC has reached the conclusion
    that the "alleged" manipulation by JPMorgan in the silver market, well documented and presented to the CFTC by Andrew Macguire, was
    much ado about nothing.. Just like lackey Eric Holder, chief law [un]
    enforcement official a the Dept of [no]Justice, has not been able to
    uncover any wrongdoing by Wall Street over the past 5 years, the
    CFTC ran into the same "bad luck" during its two-year investigation.

    What this tells everyone with an interest in owning gold and silver is
    that the wheels are coming off the central bankers greed cart, and
    when that happens, silver will be at or above where most imagine it
    can go. Continue to buy and hold. It is just a matter of time. How
    much time will be irrelevant, once it everything falls apart, and fall
    apart it will.

    Our latest view of the market was provided in "Central Bank Death
    Dance, Part I," [here, if you did not read it]. It presents a less
    conventional outlook on what not enough people are taking into
    consideration in trying to understand why silver has not rallied
    strongly, based on otherwise very strong demand factors.

    This article is more abbreviated for content, as a consequence, so we go directly to the charts, and even they have little to add as price
    moves in a sideways fashion.

    The final close for the monthly chart is Monday, but unless price makes
    a dramatic move up or down, September has been an "inside range"
    bar. It has done little to erase the stronger August rally bar, and for
    that reason, a slight edge goes to the bulls. What is critical now is for demand to take over and rally price higher.

    Sentiment aside, our expectation is for a more protracted sideways
    range in the months ahead. We could be wrong, but it is an "odds-on" assessment. As always, we let market activity make the final
    determination, as it always does.

    SI M 28 Sep 13

    Not much can be learned from the weekly and daily charts, so we
    skip to a few intra days to see if there are developing clues. The 90 minute chart shows a strong D/S, [Demand over Supply] day on high
    volume, 18 September. It did not go much higher, and it set up theupper bound for a TR to follow, unknown at the time.

    A few days later, a counter-punch by S/D, [Supply over Demand], on
    even higher volume. This downside effort also failed to result in any
    further downside, and it held the lows of the D/S bar, a plus for the
    buyers.

    Not much else can be said as price has since moved sideways for five
    more TDs, letting us know the buyers and sellers are in balance. What we also know is this form of balance inevitably leads to unbalance, and a directional move can be expected to follow as price moves further
    along the RHS of the TR, [Right Hand Side of Trading Range.]

    SIZ 90m 28 Sep 13

    Zooming down to a 60 minute chart does not offer a higher degree of
    clarity, but there are a few developments that appear more positive
    than otherwise. Keep in mind, this is an intra day chart, and the
    lasting effect is weaker than a higher time frame, weekly or daily.

    The chart comments give what we see. As price moves further along
    the RHS of a TR, the market is closer to reaching an imbalance, and
    that is where some low-risk entries can be made, if the set-up is clear enough on the lower time frame charts.

    The decline for the latter part of Friday was labored after the EUM rally early in the day. [Ease of Upward Movement]. We pay attention to
    the how of developing market activity, and the EUM is stronger than
    the labored "correction" that followed. If we had to take a stand, we
    would expect more upside on Monday, but that is just a non-
    committed "guess" because price can open lower. The market is not
    concerned about our "guesses," anyway.

    We remain lightly committed to the long side, but the sideways activity has not done much for the position. Plan accordingly and follow the
    market's direction.

    SIZ 60m 28 Sep 13

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