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Gold - Disconnect Between Fundamentals And Price. Perception Rules.

Saturday 18 January 2014

What will it take to turn the gold market around? One would think it
would be obvious that fundamentals are not the answer, while so many
believe that fundamentals rule. We are reminded of the
fundamentalists, especially "value investors" whose financial world was
literally turned upside down when the stock market crashed in 2008.
While "value" and "fundamentals" were considered the economic
bedrock of the stock market, it turns out that everything is really
steeped in perception, for they changed dramatically.

The stock market's investment compass was smashed back then, when
many once considered solid companies lost half their value, some even
more. The investment community was stunned. But that is "ancient"
history, as is almost anything that is longer than a few months in
time. That has been [nearly] forgotten and replaced by the fiat
euphoria levitating the stock market for the past few years.

What does this have to do with gold? Like everything else, it is all
about perception, even in the Precious Metals, [PM]. It gold a
commodity, it is money? [History proves that only fools consider it a
"barbaric metal.'] It has been the most consistent barometer of value
for many centuries. This is but one perception that many in the PM
camp have forgotten to hold fast, and they only focus on current price
relative to its peak of a few years ago. A few years out of over 5,000,
and some wonder about the validity of gold as a safe haven? Oh, ye
of little faith comes to mind.

It is a misplaced hand-eye coordinated thought. "All of the
fundamentals are screaming
high demand for and a shortage of
physical gold, but price keeps on dropping."
Or any close variation that captures price insecurity in the minds of "gold bugs," or as we call them, smart people. If your perception is focused solely on where the
price of gold is, as opposed to where you think or believe it ought to be, the elites would like to sell you a renewable subscription to their "Fiat Is Better" newsletter.

Why is gold not at higher price levels?

An excellent question, and we repeat, the perception that fundamentals should rule is a misplaced one, at least for now. Everyone who is even remotely interested in gold knows that the COMEX and LBMA vaults are
just about bare. The COMEX has been nursing a default on physical
delivery for gold and silver since last summer. There have been none.
Those who stood to take delivery received cash, or rolled forward. This
is certainly an acknowledgment that there is no gold or silver, yet that
fact has not translated into a stampede of customers demanding gold.
Even Deutsche Bank cannot get delivery of their own gold!

Keep focused on your objectives and the reality of events. Right now,
people can buy gold coins and bars almost at will. If Deutsche
Bank has to wait seven years to get just some of its gold back, and
they are not an isolated example, if the vaults are nearly depleted, and
you can buy gold coins and gold bars from dealers every day, in light of the whole world recognizing a shortage, everyone should be taking
advantage of the disconnect between perceived value and the reality of
current prices and buying as much as they can!

One thought to keep in mind is, if fundamentals are not what is moving
the markets, then what is? If the perceived catalyst of fundamentals is
wrong, then there must be some unseen forces at work. If we can
perceive what those forces are, we may better understand why PMs are priced where they are. We will have a related article on silver,
tomorrow, to address that one.

For right now, there is a 35% off sale going on.

This is lock-and-load, fire at will, and not a time to be keeping one's
powder dry. If you know all the available physical gold is being shipped East, primarily to China, and you have immediate access to however
many ounces you want to buy, why is there any concern over the
current price of gold? What happens if you cannot buy at any price?!
Better a year early than a day late.

The reality is, whatever gold is available is relatively cheap. If you can
answer the question, for how much longer will you be able to buy it,
then plan accordingly. If you cannot answer that question, then plan
accordingly for that event, as well.

We understand that the charts reflect the bogus COMEX manipulated
paper price of gold, but that is all that is available, and the physical
market, measured by tonnes going to a variety of mostly BRICS
nations, is at a premium to paper. However unreal the COMEX and
LBMA pricing mechanism may be, it is all that is available, at least
for now.

Despite the fact that others who make predictions draws reader
attention, we do not make them. For one, no one knows how the
future will develop, just review all of the predictions from 2013 for
proof. Secondly, there are utterly unnecessary. The market will
indicate when the trend has changed, and there will be ample
opportunity to be long paper futures, that is, if there is still a paper
futures market in the next year.

The trend remains down. Any predictions you may be reading currently are mostly a regurgitation from the same ones who made predictions
last year. Is it really necessary to ask how they worked out? One thing we can say about the charts of the market is that they do not mislead.
They can be misread, at times, but overall, the trend is accurate.

Will the current 1200 area continue to hold? Odds say no, based only
on the current down trend, but things can change. However, it is
always best to wait for confirmation of a change before acting contrary
to the current trend.

Compare how quickly price rallied from the late June low, and the wider bar ranges relative to how price has been "hugging" that support line
for the past several weeks. Also, the ranges are smaller and volume is
less. The difference is what suggests that price can still go lower, or do more retesting of the 1200 area, at a minimum.

Can price, or will price rally further into next week? Odds say yes,
based upon the upper range close, Friday, but how much and for how
long, given the trend line resistance is not highly promising. This does
not mean price cannot rally $50 next week, but that we have to make
judgments based on what is known, at this time.

Just look at the chart and ask yourself, how many longs are making
money since 2011? To be clear, this pertains to the futures only. We
have been constantly advocating the purchase of physical PMs
throughout the decline, but for a vastly different reason.

GC W 18 Jan 13

October and November saw 1260 as support in gold. Once broken, in
November, 1260 has become resistance. Proof of that was when price
was rebuffed near mid-December on a retest.

We saw the small range bars, 2nd and 3rd from the end, as weak
demand, especially after price declined on a wider range bar, 4th from
the right. Friday's ability to rally came as a surprise, but the overall
picture is still one of weakness. Maybe 1260 will be tested again this
coming week. It will be important to observe how price reacts to get
an idea of the current strength of weakness for gold futures.

GC D 18 Jan 14