edgetraderplus'  Instablog

Send Message
Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
My company:
My blog:
  • Gold - Disconnect Between Fundamentals And Price. Perception Rules. 0 comments
    Jan 18, 2014 3:58 AM

    Saturday 18 January 2014

    What will it take to turn the gold market around? One would think it
    would be obvious that fundamentals are not the answer, while so many
    believe that fundamentals rule. We are reminded of the
    fundamentalists, especially "value investors" whose financial world was
    literally turned upside down when the stock market crashed in 2008.
    While "value" and "fundamentals" were considered the economic
    bedrock of the stock market, it turns out that everything is really
    steeped in perception, for they changed dramatically.

    The stock market's investment compass was smashed back then, when
    many once considered solid companies lost half their value, some even
    more. The investment community was stunned. But that is "ancient"
    history, as is almost anything that is longer than a few months in
    time. That has been [nearly] forgotten and replaced by the fiat
    euphoria levitating the stock market for the past few years.

    What does this have to do with gold? Like everything else, it is all
    about perception, even in the Precious Metals, [PM]. It gold a
    commodity, it is money? [History proves that only fools consider it a
    "barbaric metal.'] It has been the most consistent barometer of value
    for many centuries. This is but one perception that many in the PM
    camp have forgotten to hold fast, and they only focus on current price
    relative to its peak of a few years ago. A few years out of over 5,000,
    and some wonder about the validity of gold as a safe haven? Oh, ye
    of little faith comes to mind.

    It is a misplaced hand-eye coordinated thought. "All of the
    fundamentals are screaming
    high demand for and a shortage of
    physical gold, but price keeps on dropping."
    Or any close variation that captures price insecurity in the minds of "gold bugs," or as we call them, smart people. If your perception is focused solely on where the
    price of gold is, as opposed to where you think or believe it ought to be, the elites would like to sell you a renewable subscription to their "Fiat Is Better" newsletter.

    Why is gold not at higher price levels?

    An excellent question, and we repeat, the perception that fundamentals should rule is a misplaced one, at least for now. Everyone who is even remotely interested in gold knows that the COMEX and LBMA vaults are
    just about bare. The COMEX has been nursing a default on physical
    delivery for gold and silver since last summer. There have been none.
    Those who stood to take delivery received cash, or rolled forward. This
    is certainly an acknowledgment that there is no gold or silver, yet that
    fact has not translated into a stampede of customers demanding gold.
    Even Deutsche Bank cannot get delivery of their own gold!

    Keep focused on your objectives and the reality of events. Right now,
    people can buy gold coins and bars almost at will. If Deutsche
    Bank has to wait seven years to get just some of its gold back, and
    they are not an isolated example, if the vaults are nearly depleted, and
    you can buy gold coins and gold bars from dealers every day, in light of the whole world recognizing a shortage, everyone should be taking
    advantage of the disconnect between perceived value and the reality of
    current prices and buying as much as they can!

    One thought to keep in mind is, if fundamentals are not what is moving
    the markets, then what is? If the perceived catalyst of fundamentals is
    wrong, then there must be some unseen forces at work. If we can
    perceive what those forces are, we may better understand why PMs are priced where they are. We will have a related article on silver,
    tomorrow, to address that one.

    For right now, there is a 35% off sale going on.

    This is lock-and-load, fire at will, and not a time to be keeping one's
    powder dry. If you know all the available physical gold is being shipped East, primarily to China, and you have immediate access to however
    many ounces you want to buy, why is there any concern over the
    current price of gold? What happens if you cannot buy at any price?!
    Better a year early than a day late.

    The reality is, whatever gold is available is relatively cheap. If you can
    answer the question, for how much longer will you be able to buy it,
    then plan accordingly. If you cannot answer that question, then plan
    accordingly for that event, as well.

    We understand that the charts reflect the bogus COMEX manipulated
    paper price of gold, but that is all that is available, and the physical
    market, measured by tonnes going to a variety of mostly BRICS
    nations, is at a premium to paper. However unreal the COMEX and
    LBMA pricing mechanism may be, it is all that is available, at least
    for now.

    Despite the fact that others who make predictions draws reader
    attention, we do not make them. For one, no one knows how the
    future will develop, just review all of the predictions from 2013 for
    proof. Secondly, there are utterly unnecessary. The market will
    indicate when the trend has changed, and there will be ample
    opportunity to be long paper futures, that is, if there is still a paper
    futures market in the next year.

    The trend remains down. Any predictions you may be reading currently are mostly a regurgitation from the same ones who made predictions
    last year. Is it really necessary to ask how they worked out? One thing we can say about the charts of the market is that they do not mislead.
    They can be misread, at times, but overall, the trend is accurate.

    Will the current 1200 area continue to hold? Odds say no, based only
    on the current down trend, but things can change. However, it is
    always best to wait for confirmation of a change before acting contrary
    to the current trend.

    Compare how quickly price rallied from the late June low, and the wider bar ranges relative to how price has been "hugging" that support line
    for the past several weeks. Also, the ranges are smaller and volume is
    less. The difference is what suggests that price can still go lower, or do more retesting of the 1200 area, at a minimum.

    Can price, or will price rally further into next week? Odds say yes,
    based upon the upper range close, Friday, but how much and for how
    long, given the trend line resistance is not highly promising. This does
    not mean price cannot rally $50 next week, but that we have to make
    judgments based on what is known, at this time.

    Just look at the chart and ask yourself, how many longs are making
    money since 2011? To be clear, this pertains to the futures only. We
    have been constantly advocating the purchase of physical PMs
    throughout the decline, but for a vastly different reason.

    GC W 18 Jan 13

    October and November saw 1260 as support in gold. Once broken, in
    November, 1260 has become resistance. Proof of that was when price
    was rebuffed near mid-December on a retest.

    We saw the small range bars, 2nd and 3rd from the end, as weak
    demand, especially after price declined on a wider range bar, 4th from
    the right. Friday's ability to rally came as a surprise, but the overall
    picture is still one of weakness. Maybe 1260 will be tested again this
    coming week. It will be important to observe how price reacts to get
    an idea of the current strength of weakness for gold futures.

    GC D 18 Jan 14

Back To edgetraderplus' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.