Saturday 19 April 2014
W D Gann has long been recognized as an astute market trader, and
followers of Gann have been trying to figure out his genius. The best
way to describe how he made so many successful market calls is, in
a word, astrology. Having died in 1955, we did not know him, but we were fortunate enough to have met and befriended his assistant,
Robert Courter. He, too, has since died, but he confirmed what many
who study Gann know, that William Delbert Gann was an
extraordinary astrologer, exceptional.
The Square of Nine, the Circle of 360, his Hexagon, and Master
Charts were all based on astrology. He did not openly admit that in
his newsletters and writings, but he often mentioned "wheels within
wheels," which was how the planets revolved around the Sun.
Most people believe astrology to be akin to reading tea leaves or
using a Ouija board, and he did not want to be put into that category.
We will not get into astrology and the markets, but we have
observed direct correlations between planetary movements and price
action in stocks and futures. Not being astrologically adept, we leave
it to others but acknowledge its validity. The point in mentioning
Gann and astrology is next week's big astrological event, a Cardinal
Grand Cross.
Between April 20th through April 23rd, there are four days of
supreme astrological intensity. They are bookended by the Full Lunar
Eclipse, just passed on the 15th, and an Annular Solar Eclipse on the
29th. [Anyone can do an internet search to understand some of the
terms below, like we just did to find out what a Blood Moon is.]
Essentially, on 23 April, Pluto will be 180 degrees, [opposite] from
Jupiter, and Mars will be 180 degrees from Uranus. All will be in the
13th degree of their respective Sun signs, forming a cross shape,
thus the Cardinal Grand Cross. As the term implies, "opposition,"
usually entails a major polarizing effect.
What can happen? The Ukrainian situation igniting that leads to
war would be one example. Anyone interested can look up more.
We just wanted to mention it because it could have an impact on
world events, and to let people that from an astrological view, it
was known ahead of time. [Not a specific event, but the basis for
one.]
Gann was mentioned to tie in a highly respected market guru with
market astrology. Plus. we have witnessed market moves that were
known to be timed to planetary aspects, in advance, and as recently
as last week.
- 4/15. Full Lunar Eclipse aka a 'Blood Moon' (4
consecutive Blood Moons
throughout 2014 and 2015) - 4/20. Easter Sunday (Roman Catholic & Eastern
Orthodox) - 4/20. Uranus squares Jupiter
- 4/20. Pluto opposes Jupiter
- 4/20. T-square peaks: Jupiter-Uranus-Pluto
- 4/21. Uranus-Pluto square (#5 of 7)
- 4/21. Grand Trine peaks: Venus-Jupiter-Saturn
- 4/22. Jupiter squares Mars
- 4/22. GRAND CROSS PEAKS: MARS-JUPITER-URANUS-
PLUTO
(2014′s most powerful astrological event!) - 4/23. Uranus opposes Mars
- 4/23. Pluto square Mars
- 4/23. T-square peaks: Mars-Uranus-Pluto
- 4/29. Solar Eclipse (Annular)
Source: AstroShaman.com
You would think that how the fundamentals have been so misleading
to so many in the PMs community, that more would pay attention to
what the market says and less to what others have to say about the
markets. It is like building a better mousetrap and expecting people
to come flocking to buy it, which they do not. Why not? Creatures of
habit may be the simplest answer.
We see charts as the "improved mousetrap," as it were, and superior
as a tool for market timing over fundamentals, or any other similar
undertaking, for relating to what and when to buy in the markets.
Still, there are not that many converts who pay more attention to
what the market is saying. The one thing we know for sure is,
regardless of whatever one has in the form of expectations, they are
always subordinate to the final arbiter over price, and that is the
market itself.
We make such a distinction on the daily silver chart, at the end. For
now, here is our ongoing read of developing market activity for gold
and silver:
For months, we have been saying that the gold charts are not
indicating a wild or even a sustained move higher. To the contrary,
despite all the positive fundamentals for demand, on so many levels,
price is marching to a different tune, far removed from all the known and highly constructive news about gold.
If you were to base your decision-making on news alone, one is not
making any money from buying gold. Does that mean one should
refrain from buying it? The best answer comes from knowing your objectives.
If you want security from the out-of-control fiat spending of all
Western governments, then yes, this continues to be the time to buy
gold, [and silver]. In addition to the insane and unprecedented
creation of "money out of thin air," world-wide events are
turning darker and darker. Gold and silver remain one of the best
means for attaining financial peace of mind, and one of the best
forms of wealth preservation. In this regard, price is of no
consequence. Ownership is. Stay the course.
There is ample evidence that your own government sees any money
you hold in banks as theirs for the taking, [Cyprus, Greece, Ireland].
Rules, laws, statutes are already in place to have your funds
confiscated, if you [wrongly] believe that it cannot happen to you.
Both in the US and UK, at a minimum, there have been several
published stories about people's safety deposit boxes raided for their
gold and silver contents.
If you do not want to be subjected to what is going on, and will
surely only get worse and more widespread, than yes, buying gold
and silver makes sense, not to make money, as an incorrect
measure in the short-term, but to be safe and secure in protecting
what you already have from being confiscated, in some manner.
Obviously, owning and holding PMs means you do not keep it in
some bank or [not so] safe deposit box.
If you want to be profiting from owning gold, [and silver], then no,
now is not the time to be committing to the long side, in general.
That is more of a function of trading, and futures and options are the
typical choices. We do not trade options, so they are never a topic of
the charts we discuss.
The best we can say about gold is that it may be transitioning from
its protracted down trend. The signs that gold remains under
pressure are still there, bearish spacing, lower swing highs, etc, and
that means any buying has to be very select, or not at all, again,
profit being the only objective.
The chart comments are apt, and we will add that in addition to the
high volume from four weeks ago, the very small range bar, at the
low, supports the prospects that the bottoming process continues
with increasing positive signs. That can change next week, if the market were to make lower lows, but unless and until that kind of
event happens, we can only draw conclusions from facts that are
known, and not from what may or may not happen.
For whatever reason that it happened, last week's wide range bar
down on sharply higher volume may contain price activity for the
next several TDs, [Trading Days]. Look at the wide range bar lower,
at the beginning of April, in the weekly chart above. It captured
price within its range for the next 7 trading weeks. Then, at the end
of April, same chart, there were two large bars down, and with the
exception of a brief rally above the first of those two bars, price has
been trading with their range for the past year!
Because price closed well off the low of last Tuesday's sell-off, the
sharply higher volume, and price at important support, tells us
buyers are defending the 1280 +/- area as support.
Silver keeps trying. It is like the Little Engine That Could: "I think I
can, I think I can..." One day, now sooner than later, it will move
higher and get over the hill. As you view the daily chart, you can see
price moving farther and farther along the RHS, [Right Hand Side]
of the ongoing TR, [Trading Range]. The farther along price moves
on the RHS, the closer it gets to reaching a final resolve, or a
breaking free of the TR. That it is occurring at such a low-level, and
at important support, an upside breakout is more likely. However, it
is still possible for one more move lower to totally wash out weak
hands and trigger sell stops, at the same time.
Combined with comments on the weekly TR, you can see that silver
just had a break to the downside of its recent little TR. We see it as a positive development because of how it happened: wide range, highest contract volume, close off the low, and no downside
follow-through for next two TDs.
Forget about your own expectations for higher prices, at least in the
sense of wanting higher prices as soon as possible. It is the market
that determines where price trades and for how long. Higher prices
are coming! This is where all the developing fundamentals are put
into a context, but the timing for when price will justify the
fundamental expectations is determined by market activity. That
activity, as just described, and as we have been saying for over a
year, is saying, quite clearly, neither silver nor gold are showing
evidence of an imminent move higher.
Adjust your expectations to what the market is saying, and you will
lower your anxiety level for disappointment and align yourself for
what is. The definitions of is is that which is going on, right now, and
not what is in your own mind, re gold and silver.
