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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Silver And Gold - Postured To Go Higher. Needs More Time, Though. 1 comment
    Aug 13, 2012 11:59 AM

    Sunday Evening 12 August 2012

    One thing about charts is that, unlike central planners in governments all over the world that make self-serving pronouncements, [aka lies and deceptions], is that charts reflect reality...sometimes not
    always so clearly, but even the lack of clarity is true picture of reality. Charts are used to put any market into a context from which an informed decision can be made. This is not to say there are many "analysts" who do not know how to read a chart, but do so anyway, giving chart analysis a bad name, but that is another, less important story.

    No one is immune from making a bad trade decision, and one of the strongest commodities on the board, gold, led to our losing month for July. We went long both gold and silver, and where silver was a break-
    even trade, gold turned out to be a loss of $1,815 per mini contract,
    [ Xs 2], even with a stop. When we say "anything can happen," it is a basic truism not to take lightly. We happened to "walk into" one of
    gold's larger daily declines just before it happened, and was stopped out for the loss.

    The monthly trading range for silver shows a clustering of closes, and that means a resting spell for either continuation of the previous trend, or a turnaround. There is no confirmation for either, but a few
    observations can made to garner some clues as to which way.

    (click to enlarge)SIU M 12 Aug 12

    The weekly clustering of closes has occurred at support. It can mean a prelude to more downside, or it can lead to an upside breakout. The fact that this resting spell has held above resistance shows that the
    downside momentum has been stopped. With price now trading at/just above the supply trendline tells us that the slight break of the trendline is another indication that the downtrend has weakened...not that it is over, just weakened.

    (click to enlarge)SIU W 12 Aug 12

    The symmetry of price, at or near a potential breakout on all time frames, is significant. Any future directional move will have a unified direction without conflicting interference. In other words, a breakout
    of the daily will not lead to resistance on a weekly because the weekly and monthly are in harmony with the daily.

    We must respect the fact that price on the daily is still under the supply trendline, and also under the 50% area of the trading range, as defined. Both tell us that this is not a market in a strong position, so to expect strength from this point is highly unlikely. The market must show strong range extension to the upside accompanied by strong closes and volume. It can happen next week, or next month, or even
    not at all, so it is best to wait for that highly anticipated confirmation.

    (click to enlarge)SIU D 12 Aug 12

    If anyone wants context for a market, gold shouts out strength. Look at huge is the bullish spacing...[ the distance between the last swing low above the last swing high]. It is an indication of just how strong a market is, evidence by buyers not waiting to enter from thelong side before waiting to see how previous support will be retested. This is one very strong market.

    (click to enlarge)GCV M 12 Aug 12

    A monthly chart is not used for timing, nor is a weekly, for that matter, but as we go down in time frames, discerning an entry level/point becomes more apparent. For as strong as the monthly is, the weekly is
    showing that more time is likely needed to develop an unstoppable force. Forget what you "read" or "hear" about gold. All the gold bugs have been off on timing for much higher prices, and the charts show
    why opinions take a back seat to timing, and those who say gold is NOT a measure of failed fiat need only look at the above monthly chart as to gold being a true measure of a store of value.

    As we move further into the future, it takes more and more worthless fiat to buy the same ounce of gold. Those who choose to believe that central planners, [insert your government of choice here], are going to
    "fix" everything, [everything being the damage they created in the first place], are fools.

    (click to enlarge)GCV W 12 Aug 12

    Just as in silver, and because Lying Ben, I-tell-you-no-lies Timmy, and Obama, who has abandoned ALL campaign promises and has doubled the country's debt, and has abandoned the American public in favor
    of protecting Wall Street, [not a single indictment for massive fraud, just not called fraud by those in power], all of the forces are keeping the lie[s] alive in order to be re-elected, the gold chart tells us that
    there is still time for the deceivers to work their "magic," [scam].

    As an aside, it does not matter who is president. It is the New World Order in charge, not any country government. Need proof? This country was founded as a Republic. That has been abandoned, [actually, purposefully destroyed], and replaced by a federal democracy. Those who do not know the difference are getting what they [did not] asked for.

    Bottom line. For anyone who wants to preserve [even accumulate] wealth, buy physical gold and silver at any price. Just do not hold it in any banking or non-banking entity. It will not be safe and WILL be
    confiscated. As to the futures, there has been no confirmation that an upside move is underway.

    (click to enlarge)GCV D 12 Aug 12

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  • Market Predictor
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Gold has been wandering between the head (29 Dec 11) and the shoulder (5 Oct 11) since 22 Mar 12. What we are now seeing a converging triangle of higher lows and lower highs. Your graph clearly shows this triangle! This is highly bullish and any breakout to the upside out of the triangle is likely to be significant and with volume. There may be a final attempt to test the head one last time to try fake a breakdown of the triangle to shake out the last weak hands. If they do it will be met with rapid reversal as happened on 16 May 12 when the intraday low pushed below the head for 2-3 hours before strong buying caused a close above the head.
    13 Aug 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
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