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My investing and writing are primarily focussed on macro areas such as currencies, commodities, global investing, and geopolitics. I also closely monitor technology. I generally have a medium to longer-term investment horizon. I encourage you to review the track record of my published articles... More
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The PolyCapitalist
  • Econ Myth Busting: Sorry John Carney, the U.S. is Not a Default Virgin 0 comments
    May 21, 2011 7:31 AM | about stocks: TBT, TMV, TLT
    I'm a big fan of American Public Media's Marketplace radio show, but Friday's show featured CNBC's John Carney and Fortune's Leigh Gallagher discussing the U.S. debt situation.

    Both John and Leigh stated the oft-repeated myth that the U.S. has *never* defaulted.

    If only that were true.

    The above summary is from Carmen Reinhart's and Ken Rogoff's research in their superb book This Time is Different.

    As you can see from their research not only has the U.S. defaulted, but the U.S. has defaulted or 'restructured' (a partial-default) at least once every century since the founding of the republic. Details on each episode can be found in the book and at Carmen's website.

    As Reinhart and Rogoff put it, the U.S. is definitely not a "default virgin".

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Stocks: TBT, TMV, TLT
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