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Craig Brockie
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Craig Brockie is a contrarian investment advisor in Beverly Hills, who provides wealth management services to high net worth clients. He prefers to bill his clients solely based on performance, getting paid only for results.
My company:
Contrarian Advisors
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Contrarian Investing News
  • Cramer Will Be Screaming To "BUY, BUY, BUY" Gold Stocks! 2 comments
    Jun 7, 2013 12:40 PM | about stocks: GDXJ

    Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's "Mad Money" is arguably one of the most well known and certainly one of the most entertaining investment commentators today.

    On April 16th, the day after the gold price bottomed, Cramer had this to say about the gold market, identifying that it was extremely oversold, but hesitant to got out on a limb and suggest that his viewers buy.

    I wish Cramer had had me on his show as the previous day I published an article right here on Seeking Alpha calling for an all-time high in gold above $2,000/oz within 12 months. He probably would have ridiculed me, like only Jim Cramer could, and it would have made for great television.

    It is said that all truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. As a contrarian investor and author, I'm well familiar with these stages.

    My article clearly identified the reliable history of gold to not only rebound from an oversold condition, but achieve a new all-time high within just seven months of bottoming.

    At some point in the near future, I'm expecting Cramer to jump fully on board the gold bandwagon. Because gold mining stocks have already been rising far more in percentage terms than the metal itself and will continue to do so, I expect Jim to be jumping up and down screaming to "BUY, BUY, BUY gold mining stocks".

    As of this week, junior gold mining fund GDXJ has already rallied 20% from its bottom of just three weeks ago...and it's just getting warmed up. This should be no surprise, as history has proven this behavior to be the norm rather than the exception as was pointed out in my recent article, "The Anatomy of a Gold Mining Crash... And Recovery".

    I love when Cramer gets excited. This YouTube clip of him telling investors that he's "buying the market, right here, right now because I know more than anybody" is classic. I look forward to seeing him say the same about gold stocks, sometime between now and when they peak over the next 6-12 months.

    Disclosure: I am long GDXJ.

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Comments (2)
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  • neverquickenough
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Still looking good? I agree with another commentator that gold is kind of like trading in a diverse and confusing religion.

     

    http://bit.ly/10WoxJY
    26 Jun 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Raysbiz
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    @ Mr. Brockie:

     

    First of all, thank you for the quite interesting article - it may be very timely long-term (^^), despite the unfortunate drop in GDXJ after your piece was posted.

     

    I am long in junior mining individual stock myself. Currently I have a large paper loss, but have sold covered calls, and can afford to wait. I'd sold my physical gold which I didn't want to hold on to 'permanently' (i.e., for emergency purposes) at around $1650, because of the price charts at the time, and later bought in (too early) on junior miners with very competitive cost structures. With some luck, my realized profits have been significant, while my current paper loss is keeping me in my positions longer than I'd originally planned.

     

    Anyway, your article taught me some things I didn't know, so I'll mention a couple things you may not know, for your future reference (I will likely be referencing back to this article for MY future reference, due to how intriguing it is).

     

    If you still own junior gold mining fund GDXJ, although it may bounce back somewhat from its current level ($37.62 close on July 15), my technical analysis experience tells me that it will eventually fall to a new low. This has to do with money flow, and price gaps in GLD & SLV (e.g., even below $80 on GLD!). To the degree the rapacious sharks at GS & JPM can keep manipulating massive amounts of paper gold/silver, they will be able to keep driving down the prices of the ETFs, bit by bit... You need to be aware of this. On the other hand, TA indicates that GLD will also someday rise back up over $168.

     

    Your overall thesis may be correct - but this time IS different, IMHO, because of the influence of ETFs & futures. If gold does indeed clear $2,000 / oz., I'd recommend taking the profits, then getting out of the USD.

     

    Good luck!

     

    With respect,
    Raysbiz
    raysbusiness @ hotmail.com
    15 Jul 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
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