Tufenk's  Instablog

Send Message
Experienced tech investor, real estate and banking experience.
My blog:
  • NIHD: Battleground $5.73 1 comment
    Aug 22, 2013 2:29 PM | about stocks: NIHD, GOOG, MS

    Given today's Morgan Stanley downgrade of NII Holdings (NASDAQ:NIHD) seems to be a very good description of the bear's case for the company. Here are some excerpts:

    Why Underweight?

    • The deployment of 3G networks continues to pose challenges.
    • Sprint'siDENnetworkshutdowninthe US is having a greater than expected impact on demand for NII services.
    • Equity value is being crowded out by the growing debt burden.
    • NII has not yet demonstrated that it can successfully differentiate itself in an increasingly data-centric mobile market. • Although the company may continue to divest assets, we believe the company is unlikely to generate as much interest as it did for its Peruvian assets. • Although NII owns spectrum and towers that may have strategic value for competitors, we note that the balance sheets of the region's mobile operators do not currently give them much flexibility to pursue an M&A agenda.

    Potential Catalysts

    • Negative: A severe devaluation of Latam currencies could pressure the balance sheet and have a negative translation effect on earnings.

    • Negative: Any further delays to 3G network rollouts in Mexico or Brazil
    • Positive: Strategic value, although there is little clarity on potential activity. • Positive: Possible asset monetization involving either towers or an entire country operation.

    • Positive: In our bull case we value the spectrum and towers at up to $9/share net of YE2013 debt, which helps provide a floor for valuation.

    • Positive: New regulation in Mexico aimed at curbing the power of the market leader could enhance NIHD's profitability and/or competitiveness.

    • Positive: Possible launch of software to enable any 3G device to work on NIHD's network. (click to enlarge)

    Our take on the situation is MS is trying to bail out some hedge funds that are short this name and maybe they are really worried about NIHD not turning around. Our question however is why hasn't the stock fallen anymore than it did this morning. The answer maybe coming at the close today. BTW, if someone is really short NIHD, they are looking at a zero and not a $2 drop form the current level. Why write a research report for a $2 drop? Anyway, we see the shorts fixated on breaking the near term low on the stock price outlined in this chart:(click to enlarge)We think that a large player who wants exposure to Lat Am and the real-time knowledge that comes with operating a wireless computing network like a Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) will buy a large stake in this company just for the real time feedback, in the meantime, put on your seat-belts and trade the name.

    Stocks: NIHD, GOOG, MS
Back To Tufenk's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (1)
Track new comments
  • db6strings
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
    They acknowledged $9/share for towers and spectrum and want yo force it down based on nothing new?
    Who are thy trying to get out (short) or possibly in (that large theoretical player you mentioned)?
    Currencies can be hedged.
    Tech rollouts do have bumps.
    Why would 60M shorts chase $2.
    They want to walk away obligated to return worthless shares.
    By the report of a bearish analyst, we are not anywhere near that.
    22 Aug 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.