Interesting Times'  Instablog

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I find investments are very different and difficult in these extremely Interesting Times!! We hear whispers of manipulation. QE'S that have never been done before. Then we have a template experiment in Cyprus to see the worlds reaction. I just ask everyone to sit back and ask themselves "... More
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 1.... 171 comments
    May 3, 2013 8:35 PM | about stocks: GLD, SLV, PSLV, PSEC, LYSCF, REMX

    Where do commodities go from here, are stocks and bonds still sound investments? Oil. Etf's Physical metals..

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug, Chris, Focal Point, Tack, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: GLD, SLV, PSLV, PSEC, LYSCF, REMX
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Comments (77)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My strength is educating myself in silver and gold. I personally feel silver in the physical will be a better long term investment then gold and the ETF'S. Any thoughts on this?
    3 May 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Christopher F. Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (1784) | Send Message
     
    well done.

     

    new silver article here

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    'im bullish on copper too
    3 May 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT
    Thank you for site; both physical silver and gold will have their day soon enough; gold reached its inflation adjusted high first a couple years ago but not so for silver (not sure what its inflation adjusted value should be); great opportunity to make some money with silver; I am not going to ignore gold because of the golden rule "he who has the gold, makes the rules"
    3 May 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Thank you for your thoughts. Why do you think the price of silver has dropped to almost $22 bucks?

     

    Ideas?
    3 May 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I am in physical gold/silver for the long term and I started buying about 10 years ago with GLD/SLV; once I saw what was really going on with ETFs I sold out (no I did not lose money); I believe in market corrections but when I see that gold and silver start on the plus side in the East and by the time markets open in London and NY, both gold and silver going down at the same time in a predictable manner, then I get skeptical of the markets; being skeptical has helped me not losing money; for me silver and gold are manipulated
    3 May 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    I agree the PM markets are being manipulated either by Fed intervention or proxies for the Fed, JPM has been rumored.
    3 May 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So you believe the paper and physical prices are starting to separate? I know of no one who sold physical during the last smackdown. In fact WORLDWIDE people were buying.

     

    Not sure if they are smart or foolish!

     

    Be sure Folks to hit the like button if you appreciate the opinions as that helps everyone taking the time to post and learn... Thanks !
    3 May 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I am very interested in the potential schism between paper and physical PM prices...
    4 May 2013, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FPA

     

    I am also. I found it interesting that after the last smackdown all the vendors raised their premiums to around $6+ bucks. Added to the spot the total cost was close to $30 per ounce of an ASE.

     

    Now as the spot rose a buck the premium dropped a buck to net out to the same price. So is that a coincidence or were the vendors not willing to sell under a pre-determined amount of around $30 per ounce? MAYBE their supply cost was around that and they did not want to take a loss?

     

    Interesting Times eh?
    4 May 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    FPA
    I like to call it separation and divorce
    4 May 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Guys

     

    I found this article from a poster I hope comes here soon..

     

    http://bit.ly/126PGGR

     

    Thoughts on this beauty??
    6 May 2013, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • chuck holladay
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    More sellers than buyers is the easiest answer and I do not know what the more complicated answer is. Over abundance of silver being mined perhaps.
    8 May 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    My favorite ...
    'Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.'
    – Alan Greenspan
    8 May 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CHUCK

     

    Good point but who are the sellers of the metals. I read that the CB'S and the retail investors are all net buyers??
    9 May 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • lasvegasbrad
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Just wrote a check to Northwest Terr Mint last week, paid $14k for 500 coins. By my math, that is $28 - $23 = $5 over spot. How does that mean there are more sellers? Yes, SLV plunged down on Friday, does that mean all the worlds silver is suddenly oversupplied? No, it means paper manipulation by big boys. Total value of SLV (per Zacks) $8 billion. Total world Silver usage approx 1 billion ounces (per silver wheaton) X $23 spot = $23 billion. 4X Easier to manipulate SLV than the true silver market.

     

    Long SLV and long GLD.
    12 May 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @LAS

     

    I hope you bought ASE'S for that price? They are highly regarded as the best money can buy!! SLV is a farce anyway. Read below.

     

    "The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

     

    There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex."

     

    Happy to have you join our discussion!
    13 May 2013, 03:25 AM Reply Like
  • Ponchovilla
    , contributor
    Comments (401) | Send Message
     
    The difference between "smart" and "foolish" is the the price you buy at and the price you sell at. Sometimes you are smart, sometimes you are a fool but never be a moron!
    Smart people realize how little they know. Foolish people know everything. Morons have no clue.
    13 May 2013, 03:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PONCH

     

    This game of investing can change a smart person into a moron very quickly. I know I have thought that of myself a few times. Until I realized that forces are at work that I have no control over. Like some of these flash crashes. Someone made money on it for sure.

     

    If you don't have the inside info you do feel like a moron. I can only hope one day we have a level playing field again. Thanks for joining in !!
    13 May 2013, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    That is what I have been told. But also that the "source" of where one gets coins make a huge difference also. The coin dealer in my town never has huge premiums and said his source excellent but doesn't take new clients so he can service the ones he has.

     

    FWIW
    21 May 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @GOLDTRENDS

     

    I just looked on Gainesvilles web site and they again have an ASE silver shortage. I do not doubt your word on what your dealer said but I find it strange that he will only handle old clients.

     

    Makes me think if he even has any ASE'S at all !!

     

    Easy to say I have plenty BUT you can't have any >>>
    21 May 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Well I just don't go to visit, I've been buying and I watch him look at spot price and tack on 4.5% for leaf's ---silver and gold. He does charge higher for eagles -- 5.5%.

     

    He said his source doesn't take on new clients so he can support the ones he has with product. I've never seen him out of anything except a few months ago when someone from California called and bought every 1/2 dollar silver kennedy coin he had.

     

    Anyway, just telling you what he relayed. But I've never seen higher premiums than that. I asked how he does it and he says he just replaces what he sells everyday with an order.
    22 May 2013, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    @IT Note that the Brent/WTI Spread is now under $9 as of this week's close.... that's not all b/c of the Seaway pipeline. $95 WTI is a sign of incipient inflation in the U.S. A weekly or monthly close over $100 will be a signal, as will dropping 5 year tips yields, obviously.
    3 May 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    Tom

     

    The US exports oil byproducts to the tune of $70B-$80B and when the Brent/WTI spread is wide it is more cost effective to ship abroad while a smaller spread has the opposite effect; furthermore WTI at close to $100+ might throw the economy into a deeper recession; it is going to get interesting with oil at $100+ and the biggest consumer is the DOD
    3 May 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @Tom

     

    Here I was hoping for lower gas prices for my summer driving. If the prices go too high I suspect a recession could take hold. I know of plenty of families living paycheck to paycheck !!

     

    Anyone interested in gold should read his articles BTW
    3 May 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    @Rina good call. WTI @ $100 will be a killer for the midwest and the cost of this year's winter harvest.

     

    @IT Gas prices track the price of Brent not WTI. Either Brent is trading at a discount or WTI is signaling localized,read U.S. domestic, inflation. But, on the coasts, the price of gas is determined by the Brent price due to our balkanized pipeline system.
    4 May 2013, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • nocnurzfred
    , contributor
    Comments (841) | Send Message
     
    Tom;
    I had always been under the impression that WTI was actually more valuable than Brent because it is more fluid & easier to transport/process. That being said [if indeed true], then how did the price reversal ever occur in the first place? Or is this another Great American Give Away? We will buy your less desired Brent for top dollar, and sell you our Good Stuff for cheap.
    IT;
    Commodity education board is great idea. Now teach we, the uninformed masses.
    9 May 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOC

     

    I started this board HOPING those knowledgeable about this would teach others. Including me !!
    9 May 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    Tom

     

    Yes the WTI has been the world standard for pricing crude oil because of its sweetness and the US has been a major producer but I believe there has been a move recently by Arabs to use the Brent for pricing because the price is higher and less volatile; the US has managed the crude oil price to its advantage and Saudi Arabia needs oil priced at about $100 a barrel to not run in economic troubles; if this is true, it is another step closer to get away from petro$$
    9 May 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Following the Fukushima accident in Japan and the gold/silver highs in 2011, gold and silver stocks, together with uranium stocks, took a plunge and it might get worse before stocks improve; before this happened I could pick any stock and make money but since then I have had to reduce mining stocks and reposition myself into DG stocks; luckily I had bought in a decade ago and did not lose too much; I still have some positions in mining stocks but when if I see things moving then I will get in; I am more into physical gold and silver now but I want warn readers to be careful with gold and silver stocks--if the Fed needs gold and silver, I wouldn't be surprised if mines are nationalized
    9 May 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    @NOC We don't export WTI. Brent is the standard by which all other grades are priced.... as a premium/discount to Brent.

     

    WTI price collapsed because of a toxic mix of rapidly rising supply and a pipeline system designed to ensure regional mobility in the case of a nuclear attack. Most of the U.S. gasoline is priced in Brent because the East Coast refineries buy Brent directly and the West Coast ones buy foreign grades priced in Brent. Look at a $BRENT/$GASO chart on Stockcharts... then look at $WTIC/$GASO chart.
    21 May 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    " I want warn readers to be careful with gold and silver stocks--if the Fed needs gold and silver, I wouldn't be surprised if mines are nationalized"

     

    I have read and heard many warnings about paper silver. One of the most popular warnings is that SLV is not backed by physical silver. Forgive my novice thinking but what does all the news under that symbol about transferring in and out tonnes of silver mean if there is no physical silver involved???? I thought it was an indication of the physical silver in vaults backing SLV. If this is not true then what are they referring to???

     

    Anyway, having heard many warnings about SLV, an ETF I owned for a while I became a bit nervous not knowing who or what to believe. So, I did some reading up on various alternatives to physical silver. The reason for my desire to get into physical silver alternatives is due to my IRA, left to me by my dad. My financial advisor and the company he represents do not deal with physical silver. Since I have some long term investments with him and like the company overall, I decided to collect physical silver on my own little by little and use some of the IRA to buy paper silver. My objective was to find the safest stock that represented silver. My ultimate conclusion was that PSLV was the answer. Not only does it mirror the moves in silver prices (as a percentage ...not exact dollar amount) but the ETF is based in Canada and they insist PSLV is backed by physical silver. On their website they state the following....

     

    "Investors can enjoy the security of knowing that the Trust's physical silver bullion is fully allocated and segregated in a secure third party storage location in Canada."

     

    So it is "fully allocated" and stored in Canada. This information was what ultimately convinced me that this was the safest alternative to owning physical silver. Not only do they claim to have all the physical silver to back up their stock but it out of the United States where we just do not know what to believe about many things including the SLV situation... unfortunate but true

     

    Is there anyone here in this forum that believes I am being fooled into a sense of security with PSLV??? If so, why? It is important to me because I may very well double my investment in the near future.

     

    Thanks.
    11 Jun 2013, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Can any commodity posters answer this?
    11 Jun 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    richonsilver,

     

    From what I have read elsewhere you are correct regarding PSLV.
    The bigger question may be whether you are correct on the future price direction of silver.
    11 Jun 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    rich

     

    I started investing in GLD, SGOL, and SLV ETFs but after further investigations, I had doubts because of no audits being performed and sold them (at a gain) and moved on to GTU, PHYS, and PSLV, where annual audits are performed yearly
    11 Jun 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Richonsilver

     

    Why would you increase holdings? Do you expect price increase? Or want to assurance hedge against inflation or money devaluing? i.e. insurance?

     

    It's not dividend paying, so that's something to consider.
    11 Jun 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks , Thanks. I know R will answer if I am wrong but he is looking to average down as he bought higher then today's price. Please correct me R !!

     

    Thanks for the comments as R is a friend of mine finding his way to investing on his own as some of us are doing. His homework was to start from the beginning and ask questions along the way !!
    11 Jun 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    tampat & curls,

     

    Yes, I do expect silver and PSLV prices to go up....and up... and up. Since I am in this for the long haul and have time for that result, I am willing to wait... and wait,,, and wait ...LOL... well hopefully not too too long. As for why am considering doubling up on my investment, yes, as our moderator pointed out, my buy-in price was higher than today's level. In fact it was 25% higher so if I were to buy more now or soon at a similar level in the single figures, it would be for the purpose of averaging down. The purchase I made last time around put PSLV at 10% of my portfolio so doubling up would make it 20% or one fifth of my IRA so its a pretty important decision. It would likely be the last silver stock purchase I make for a while since 20% of my IRA which is much of my investment portfolio overall, seems to be high enough.
    The way I look at it, I bought in at $13 so if I buy the same number of shares at $9, my average price is $11 and if silver rebounds, as I expect it will, my wait time to return to break even will be much shorter and hopefully continue upward from there.
    Aside from that I am looking to learn other places where my investment money can do well. Since I am several years from accessing the IRA, I have time to research, learn and then make moves. I am in here to do just that... research and learn.
    Thanks for your input and opinions.
    12 Jun 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @R

     

    You see I told you they don't bite here !! Except PAWS....
    12 Jun 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    PAWS bites? So far he's purrrred :).

     

    Rich - can we take that to Chapter 7 so we can all talk about it? My first thought is PM are usually 3% of portfolio. They don't pay dividends & they're a "sector." There is so much else you can invest in & have fun with. (Not as shiny, but still quite nice.)

     

    You can repost it here & everyone will see it!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Jun 2013, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Alex123456789
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    Wow. Tom I've read your comments on wti, Brent and natgas benchmarks and I think you should seriously go back to your studies if you firmly believe what you say..
    And good luck to you selling natgas in the u.s with an oil related formula (Brent or else).
    Same goes for crude, I don't know a single refinery I'm the west coast that buys crude on a Brent benchmark.
    3 Jul 2013, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ALEX

     

    Welcome.. We are up to Chapter 21 so looking forward to you catching up with comments!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Jul 2013, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Copper ???

     

    Looking forward to those who have expertise in this area. My wife has been hounding me to invest in copper. So I am open to suggestions.

     

    Any ETF'S ? or companies anyone suggest. If so why now?
    3 May 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • phenix
    , contributor
    Comments (447) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT,
    I have been long Duluth Metals (DM) for several years now (wow...doesn't seem like it!) and have made a fair bit of money on it....it is now in the doldrums like so many other commodity stocks but is still a favourite of mine....it is owned 40% by Antofogasta the Chilean copper giant so has lots of available cash and will not be diluted..if they (DM) run out of cash during the drilling period then Anto will pay the shortfall and get more of DM's shares in exchange....this is not a bad deal in my opinion as it just means that it is all the more likely the mine will be built...it is a huge deposit (world class) that includes precious metals and pgm's. It will take years before it goes into production and there is the risk of environmental groups blocking or slowing the process but it is in a very mining friendly jurisdiction (Minnesota) so I think it should go through. There is a chance it could be bought out but I think it will go to production as a JV. DM also owns adjacent lands that have pm's, copper and pgm's which they are in the process of exploring.
    13 May 2013, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PHENIX

     

    Welcome and thanks for joining. Hopefully someone has an opinion on this company or sector. Anyone like to chime in?
    13 May 2013, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    phenix,

     

    Upon searching the ticker DM, I do not find Diluth Metals. Upon further research I found a ticker DM-U.TO to represent the company but it has a short history. Was this previously under a different ticker? Also, do I have the correct stock ($1.40)? I love to find those diamond ... err copper in the rough stocks that few know about but more often than not these kind of $1 stocks rarely fare well. Can you give us a little more history on these guys?
    11 Jun 2013, 03:46 AM Reply Like
  • techwonk
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Just out of $TC, possibly too soon. My favorite of the available molybdenum miner alternatives despite the leverage.

     

    Considering $REMX while the sector is "treading water".
    3 May 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TECH

     

    "My favorite of the available molybdenum miner alternatives"

     

    For us newbies to this area can you expand on this?

     

    REMX? Why do you like this company. Remember some here have no clue and are looking to learn reasons why. I appreciate it !

     

    Thanks.
    3 May 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • techwonk
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    @InterestingTimes:

     

    $REMX -- etf, dividend yield, less company-specific risk

     

    Moly -- component in steel alloys, thus subject to cyclical risk

     

    Mining co's -- risky overall, high overhead & uncertain outcomes on new mines
    3 May 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Sorry IT, I don't follow copper much.
    I like the silver market. I have holdings in PSLV and SLW. I also hold Vanguard PM fund VGPMX. I recently found a new Sprott investment vehicle, Sprott Resource Corp. Although thinly traded Ilike it. I pays a nice 11% dividend on hard assets. http://bit.ly/UE0VRX
    I also have physical silver, Eagles and rounds. I recently found a new local dealer and plan on adding to physical holdings.
    I see silver as the common mans precious metal. I have interest in anything that I can make money on or preserve what I have.

     

    Have you seen this one? ... http://bit.ly/11AV342
    3 May 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • techwonk
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    @bd I see listings for $SILU and $SPOXF but not your fund
    3 May 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Sprott Resource Corp. SCPZF
    The link I included has info on their portfolio holdings and dividend info.
    3 May 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BD4

     

    Now that was funny . But here's the rub. I have heard this story more than I want to remember. My concern is can they keep the shenanigans up forever?

     

    I always though they could not but then something new pops up and the can gets kicked down the road again. I have also heard Never Fight The Fed ..

     

    I was invested in (SLW) but as I have posted I am concerned with a companies financials if things really get out of hand. That is why I think physical is the way to go .

     

    At my age I really don't want to wake up one morning, put on Fox Business, and see no ticker running. I think my ticker would stop as well.

     

    Thanks and please add as you please.. I enjoyed that cartoon.

     

    My goal is to get posters responding to each other with points that others can read and then they can respond to as well. I would like this to be different then an article. More educational.
    3 May 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT,

     

    I wouldn't mind turning on my TV some day and finding FoxNews off the air, but maybe thats a different channel than Fox business news.
    Well, never mind about that, too political.

     

    As for copper, as you may know copper is supposed to represent the economy in that the demand for copper signals economic growth/ weakness. If you believe the economy will continue to strengthen then copper may work out well but if you think otherwise you might want to stay away from it.

     

    JJC is a copper ETF and it does bounce around a bit depending on the economic report du jour. It went up over 6% Friday but can fall that much or more in a day with a negative report. After all the bouncing around it is still at the same price it was 3 years ago and at its lows.
    4 May 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    @Tampat the short squeeze in Copper may, like the steady rise in WTI, be a signal of domestic inflation in the U.S. finally rearing its head. Now that all three major central banks are printing, the deflation argument is a helluva lot weaker.
    4 May 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    Tom
    I don't know the details but JPM was monkeying around with copper by hoarding huge amounts of physical maybe for their ETF but I would advise readers not to mess with it since JPM will do as GLD and SLV.
    4 May 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Any other opinions on (JJC) ?

     

    I need to do some homework on this for sure!!
    4 May 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT
    JJC is an ETN which might involve counterparty risk in a crunch like in the AIG case
    4 May 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    @Rina I'm not at all surprised to hear this. Blythe has her hands in all of the cookie jars.
    4 May 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Tom

     

    Are you obsessed with inflation or what? I don't believe that inflation is what drives gold. I think inflation is a symptom and not the problem. I think gold runs on confidence.

     

    However, I'm open to your opinion. I'm curious as to how copper can be in a short squeeze while prices dropped to nearly $3 dollars. I've never heard of prices going down on a squeeze.

     

    I'm also interested in how you rationalize gold going down for 20 years from 1980 to 2000 and not following inflation?

     

    I've looked at the raw commodity index, its near its lows for three years. Prices are going up for corporate profits but not raw commodity. And inflation is only in essentials and like I said, the rise is not in raw commodity.

     

    Thanks in advance for your opinion.
    21 May 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    "bounces around" hmmm.. try silver. I have a headache fromt all the bouncing over the past three years.
    11 Jun 2013, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    Here's a veddy scary chart for y'all to consider.

     

    http://bit.ly/107rc22

     

    Student and car loans have been the only source of net credit expansion in the U.S. for a while.
    4 May 2013, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TOM

     

    Yup, and my daughter has both of them! Now here is the kicker. She turns 26 next year and will lose her health benefits under our family plan. Now add to this that she is the Head Substitute Teacher in our school district and under Obamacare the school cannot use her for more than 30 hrs next year or they HAVE to pay her benefits.

     

    They already told her they won't, and it is still very hard to find a full time teaching job where I live. So not sure if she will be adding to this delinquency list or not. She has an 800 credit score and does not want to lose that. But she will be pressed for income next year for sure. Right now she works 5 days per week !!
    4 May 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • evan.prospect
    , contributor
    Comments (704) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how much an 800 credit score is worth in terms of lower financing rates? It might make sense for you to provide a low or no interest loan to help her preserve it until she gets a full-time job. Maybe there are some baby-boomer teachers ready to retire and open up spots for her?
    6 May 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Any interest in the miners ETF'S .. (GDX) or (GDXJ) ???
    5 May 2013, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (2266) | Send Message
     
    Israel spent last night bombing Syria. Anyone have any thoughts as to where it goes from here and the impact on commdoities? Crude/gold?
    5 May 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    Hard to say MW, will probably need to escalate more for a good affect on oil/PM's.

     

    I always have an oil holding though, I look at it as one of the PM's. I am in USL, to hold for whenever the middle east erupts again. I figure its just a matter of when not if.
    5 May 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    23
    I think this is just a distraction because of the G20 meeting in Turkey following week which will be deciding on replacing US$ as a world currency
    5 May 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If it continues I think it will have an impact. This week should be interesting!
    5 May 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, here's a hot topic with all the QE'S.. Will we ever see hyperinflation?

     

    Don't forget to use the LIKE button !!!
    5 May 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    Hyperinflation?
    If you mean the kind seen in Germany and others, I doubt it.
    We may see inflation at a higher rate at some point, but I doubt the US goes into hyperflation. I think the greater risk is a depression or the continuation of muddle through.

     

    Try as they might, the Fed can't speed up the velocity of money and consumers are too debt ridden to spend to the degree necessary to hyperinflate. Wages are not rising and unemployment is not improving despite govt efforts to make it look as if it is getting better through dubious calculations of the UE %. Due to the way UE is calculated its possible the UE rate can continue to drop as the number of unemployed continues to increase.

     

    Of course, I can't say never to hyperinflation, but it needs to be consumer driven and I doubt it something like that will happen anytime soon.
    5 May 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    tampat

     

    I think a falling US$$ of 50%-60% and our dependence on imports will unleash hyperinflation together with trade wars and a breakdown of the supply chains on imports that we depend on
    5 May 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    The Euro and the Yen make up 70% of the weighted dollar avg and since they are on the road of massive QE as well as the US, I dont see the USD dropping 50-60%, at least not short term. Though the USD has been declining since 2002, since 1990 the USD has actually increased in value.

     

    Since 1985 the USD has dropped 50% but no hyperinflation. It will likely continue its slow decline but I believe it will need to fall rapidly in value in a short time to initiate a hyper type of event.
    Its possible, I just dont think its likely.
    5 May 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    @tampat the USDX is completely irrelevant. It is not a trade-weighted index b/c it does not take China into account. The Yuan is at 6.156 and steadily falling. WIth BN winning in Malaysia tonight the Ringgit will begin to appreciate back below Rm3 to the Dollar and the SGD will tag along for the ride.

     

    The Yuan block is emerging in SE Asia. Now that the election is behind Malaysia and Ibrahim has lost (still unsure about that guy, frankly.. I have mixed emotions about the outcome there) Naijib can stop the vote buying and begin really reforming Malaysia's SOE's.
    I'm not sure he will do it, but at least the election is no longer a concern
    5 May 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    tampat
    there are some misunderstandings about hyperinflation; it is not just the devaluation of a currency; it is the after effects of inflation like that we import all that we consume and one day all the supply lines of such imports (credit lines mind you) will disappear resulting in shortages; with $$ losing value exporters might decide to get paid in hard currency in place of junk bonds... I hope this helps.....most people don't know how good they got with cheap imports and low interest rates for the past 30 years or so with the US$ as a world currency but such days are coming to an end
    6 May 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    tampat

     

    I've looked into the Weimar situation. They had no bond market and we're locked out of world ones. When it was demanded they pay for the war repatriations and they weren't allowed to borrow they said ok............if that's what you want.

     

    The rest is history.

     

    If the fed hadn't injected the money they had, we've of collapsed a while ago. Until someone borrows the money, and puts it in the economy and the velocity of money increases the worry is not inflation. Mind you, once we get a default or an event that clears a lot of the leverage, then we'll see fireworks like never before. And that's like the student loan chart. That's not inflationary, its the opposite as the rate of default is one of the worse. Fortunately, gold is not tied to inflation and when the system goes ---- once the current holders have been squeezed, the metals will have their day.

     

    As far as short term, Odds favor a rally beings between now and the 28th of the month. Depending on how strong the price is will answer whether it can sustain for a while.
    22 May 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Tom

     

    Regarding your note to Tampat ----

     

    Are you saying that China and Yuan appreciation will effect our inflation rate and would effect the USD if it was included in the index ? Surely you've looked at the statistics.

     

    In 2012 china exported 425.7 billion dollars worth of goods to the USA and USA has a Gdp 13.67 trillion.

     

    That means that China accounts for 3.2% of our GDP.

     

    I'd be glad to hear your opinion on how that is affecting and will effect our inflation rate going forward and if we only do 3% of our business why would it make such a difference in the US Dollar index that the Yuan is not included?

     

    I'm just interested in what statistics you're looking at to arrive at your conclusions.

     

    and given the fact, which i'm sure you are aware, is that China is printing at a much faster rate than USA.

     

    Thanks in advance for a follow up response.
    22 May 2013, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Rinascimento

     

    In 2012 china exported 425.7 billion dollars worth of goods to the USA and USA has a Gdp 13.67 trillion.

     

    That means that China accounts for 3.2% of our GDP and the Yuan is at a 19 year high.

     

    Canada's currency is up 80% against the USD in the past 7 years and is only 20 cents away from its all time high in 1967. But they only account for 3% of GDP also.

     

    U.S. oil imports are falling to their lowest level since 1987.

     

    Total imports run around 20% of GDP ---- and when we subtract our exports ----- it was running about 50 billion dollars a month net and its dropping fast.

     

    The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in March to its second-lowest level in three years as imports of consumer goods and business equipment declined.

     

    How about our imports lately ?

     

    Imports decreased 2.8 percent, the most since February 2009, to $223.1 billion in March from $229.6 billion in the prior month. Purchases of foreign-made capital equipment and consumer goods dropped.

     

    So our exports are rising, our imports decreasing. Sounds to me like the faster we lower the value of our currency --- the others are doing it even FASTER than we are. That's the currency war thing they talk about.

     

    Funny how people say that is going to cause inflation. Sure didn't during the last depression.

     

    And when people say the dollar as reserve currency is coming to an end. 70% of the total loans in the world are US DOLLAR written.

     

    I have an idea----- when the cost of a pencil gets to twice as much as they cost now -- probably due to Tom's exploding thesis on oil prices, why don't we start making them next door ------and cut all the transportation costs and create JOBS at home ??

     

    Yea ---- and we can call it ----- REVERSE GLOBALIZATION. That folks is what's going to end up happening.

     

    Let me conclude with this ----- yes, the dollar will lose its reserve currency as they all do historically. The uk lost it in the 30's. But they survived ---- there's 194 nations surviving right now without the reserve currency status. And guess what? They have to live within their means.

     

    I SAY WE GIVE IT A TRY.

     

    Eventually we are going to go thru a high inflation period ---- but the debt has to collapse first ---- and once that has happened, GOLD and SILVER will come out of the ashes as the lead investment and --- then we'll get inflation. But in order to do so, a lot of things are gonna have to happen. I go back to the PENCIL example. Once we bring pencils back home ---(and we will) and put people back to work and they get some money in their pockets -------------THEN we can reverse and perhaps see some inflation.

     

    22 May 2013, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    Trends

     

    I like your example about the pencil and I am sure there are many examples similar; if the devaluation of the US$ happens gradually I think the transition of reverse globalization would be less painful for the country and people but with every country devaluating their currencies to the bottom, I am afraid it is going to be painful; in the 30s there were a few players involved and now the entire world is racing to the bottom; I like your discussion points that you discussed;
    22 May 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Rinascimento

     

    you're right about that. Either way --- its going to be painful.

     

    We're getting just a whiff today from ben just mentioning that they would look at ways to exit ----- the Dow is off 220 points from its high today--------gold off 55 dollars from its high today- silver off 1.10 from its high --- Oil off 2.20 net --- I don't know what the high was.

     

    Gold traded 90,000 contracts in an hour ---- only one bigger and that was the crash day ----silver 20,000 contracts in an hour --- I can't find a higher hourly volume.

     

    I haven't seen the USD today --- but i'm willing to bet its higher and at 2 year highs.

     

    A short term low is due in metals between now and Monday/Tuesday --- so we'll see what the next bounce looks like and if displays any strength. I suspect we're close to at least a bottom where we get a 3 to 5 week rally, and then we'll see what the action looks like.
    22 May 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    trends
    Thank you the information for the trading markets; I believe that markets are behaving like this because CBs are getting desperate and try to knockdown gold and silver; other commodities get knock down too since if they keep going up, it will show that their monetary policies are not working
    22 May 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Any opinions on rare earth elements? I am looking at REMX, MCP, REE, QRM, TAS.
    5 May 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    Massive over-supply in REE's right now. China cornered the market by undercutting everyone... now the sector is stuck in the short term.

     

    Still a lot of commodity over-investment because of the last boom/bust cycle to be worked through...
    5 May 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @Tom

     

    I was under the impression that China basically kept all of their REE'S? That they only exported a small percentage. Am I wrong?

     

    I was invested in Lynas a few years ago until they ran into all sorts of problems with their government. But I was unaware of an over-supply for the USA !!
    5 May 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Do you see any value in REMX as a long term hold? It seems the whole segment is in the pits right now. They pay a bit over 2% dividend.
    5 May 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I think your money would be better placed in individual Rare Earth stocks like LYSDY. They don't pay a dividend like REMX, but many of them don't cost $10 per share either. LYSDY popped about 18% today on the Malaysian election news, but it's still under .60 per share. They are on track with their LAMP manufacturing facility, and most of their output is already sold by contract ... I expect the stock to be over $1 in the latter part of the year when their LAMP production facility goes full on-line.
    6 May 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    Tom & IT

     

    The book Red Alert by Stephen Leeb references REEs and other raw materials that China and US need and I recommend its reading; the US is ignoring mining industry at its own risk when we depend on essential elements from overseas and all this outsourcing of electronics parts and component used for defense systems that are made in Asia and closer to China.
    6 May 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the book recommendation I'll check it out.
    7 May 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    I found another book Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers very informative
    9 May 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    REMX has been making nice moves lately.
    9 May 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    I am plowing through Stockmans new read. It's good, he takes no prisoners.
    9 May 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    On hyperinflation, as the BRIC's push forward on a development bank it will give them more latitude in avoiding the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. This can eventually lead to the loss of the dollar world wide as the reserve currency. If there is only a portion of success there will be a portion of dollar strength lost. Over time it can only get worse. If the dollar looses its reserve status hyper inflation is the threat. If is looses strength but remains a partial reserve currency expect stagflation. Neither is good but expect at least one of them. JMHO See link.

     

    http://on.ft.com/13d5hpT

     

    On crop commodities expect inflation later this year. Between our increasing drought, http://huff.to/18Oc5di , and the Chinese drought/water problems, http://bit.ly/13d5hpX things can only get worse. Of course this is the weather we are talking about so it can change quickly but the overall conditions seem to be in a cycle and increasing water demand and grain usage is adding to the problem.

     

    Also expect long term issues on those crops also as we begin to realize the cost inplications of shortages of fertilizers but that is longer term issue. But price will be effected earlier than the final days of depletion. http://bit.ly/18Oc5ty

     

    Gold and silver I think everyone has discussed in detail here but my two cents are that it is a long term buy but short term nightmare not knowing what the manipulation will do. Just buy and stack for later in life. It can not be played in the short term, get physical and stack. Also remember we are running out of silver quickly with an anticipated 20-25 year supply of world reserves based upon 2012 production numbers. Pg 146 at this link. http://on.doi.gov/13d5hGe

     

    Yes they will find more but at what price. It can only go up as they have to search for more and create more mines. It costs a fortune to just open a mine. A good part of silver is consumed never to be seen again. How long can that last without effecting price.

     

    Sorry I could not spend more time IT with this but I have to keep my job. It is an opening for discussions however. Now dont get me started on the GMO and other additives that create problems for our food supply. I encourage you to see this you tube video if you dare and you will be shocked about what happens to the food in America but is outlawed in other parts of the world.

     

    http://bit.ly/18Oc5tG
    6 May 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    DG
    Thank you providing the sites on drought because I keep an eye on it; I am invested in fertilizer TNH for the long term because of its high distribution and because the world needs to be fed; I also invest in the RICI (Rogers international commodites index) which covers everything one can think of; I don't recommend it to anybody because of its volatility but with the right environment, inflationary like you mention or during the run up in commodities, I tell you it catches up in no time
    6 May 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    Rinascimento, I would think organic fertilizers would be a good market as more and more people move to organic foods. I do not know of any that are investable but it just is a thought. Take a look at the last link I posted to see why I think this will be a growing market. I reposted it below. Its new information that many are starting to realize the problems with the food but we have to battle large corporations and corrupt congress and senate to make those changes move faster.

     

    http://bit.ly/18Oc5tG

     

    For a link to how big of a problem this is see this link

     

    http://bit.ly/12dFwDt
    7 May 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DG

     

    Thanks old friend, your post are always an eye opener and I appreciate you taking the time to expose some new ideas for me!

     

    Looking for those rebuttals or agreements now about your comment as they are always informative
    6 May 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    When I click the post it in upper right corner indicating new comments were left on an article I am following nothing happens.

     

    Is anyone else having this prob with SA?
    6 May 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    Sometime that happens. keep trying.
    6 May 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those who REALLY think gold is in a bubble read this!!.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Can't do more than show proof while others just throw out unbacked comments....
    7 May 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the historical prices on the chart it looks like people are seeing prices on sale.
    7 May 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • The Recusant
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    The author's final comments summed it all up nicely with: "This means that gold and silver investors should batten down the hatches and hold or increase their positions - because bubble markets don't end on record-breaking demand while prices drop."
    30 May 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just have a gut feeling that people are selling the ETF'S, forcing the price lower, and then buying physical.

     

    Read the article I posted above that I borrowed from another poster. It opened my eyes for sure!!
    7 May 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    I think investors have lost trust in some ETF's.
    7 May 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » March Consumer Credit rises $7.97B vs. an expected $16B and $18.63B previously (revised from $18.2B). It's the smallest increase in 8 months, with revolving credit falling $1.71B and nonrevolving (auto, student loans) rising $9.68B. [View news story]

     

    What impact should this have???
    8 May 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT
    The consumer credit rise seems low for me considering that it is tax refund time and it shows to me that consumer is hurting; as for the nonrevolving credit for auto I see people driving with expensive SUVs or trucks like the good old days before 2007-2008 and nothing ever happened
    8 May 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • nocnurzfred
    , contributor
    Comments (841) | Send Message
     
    Amazes me when I drive my 18 year old van, to be passed by so many $40+K pickups, SUVs, Acuras', Lexus', etc. Sure they also have $200 a month cable bundles & $80 a month smart phones.
    The consumer is spending, just not in areas like we did 30 years ago. Don't forget the huge credit card debt that so many have to spend high interest to maintain, again an expense that many did not have years ago.
    9 May 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    There is an underground economy that has been completely missed by the economists and their statistics.
    9 May 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    I feel the same way; here I am making a decent salary as an engineer but watching my expenses with a 13 year old Explorer with intent to keep it as long as possible with current prices and all I see people driving expensive cars as if making money like doctors; I doubt it very much
    9 May 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT,

     

    I have been busy writing, but chimed in on the gold/lead article with the following comment, which I hope puts things in perspective for some. Thanks, Doug

     

    The run up in the price of gold started before the introduction of the ETF symbol GLD and subsequent ETFs by about 4 years. The ETFs did in fact allow more investors the ability to buy more gold and I do agree this has some effect on the rising price since the ETFs introductions. But keep in mind, the entire gold bull we have experienced, the Central Banks of the world have been and continue to sell gold through the Washington Agreements and that Agreement began in 1999, at the beginning of the current gold bull market. The IMF has sold gold as well. Yet despite all this selling, gold has continued to rise in price year after year.

     

    I'm a gold dealer, but you don't see me yelling hyperinflation or commenting on paper selling. I think we had a nice run of physical buying and the Mints couldn't keep up with demand. Instead of dwelling on the paper selling, those who favor gold should be concentrating on the price action and premium response with gold "FALLING" in price. What will occur with demand when most people buy gold as it moves higher? What will the premiums be? What "if" the psychology changes? Can you bank on it not changing? That's why I view gold as more insurance.

     

    I had record sales on the 12th and 15th of April with the price crashing (something I did predict). 90% of the business was from clients I had told to dollar cost average into a position since September of 2011 when I was speculating a stronger dollar was coming (because of Euro and Yen weakness). Where are the new buyers at these discounted prices? The problem is, the new buyers are the ones who chase returns (for the most part). They will buy gold at a much higher price and higher than the 5% premium they may have to pay today.

     

    You say the gold story doesn't make much sense and then "simply" bring up hyperinflation/money printing as the reasoning behind the story.

     

    The real "story" is that Federal Reserve Notes have 42 years of existence without a relationship to gold. Anyone with an ounce more intelligence than Congress would insure their portfolio with some gold as Congress sure doesn't do anything about the almost $17 trillion of debt and only talks about lowering deficit spending over a 10 year period, based on GDP that they believe will continue to rise. Continue how? By the Fed pumping more money into the system at $85 billion a month?

     

    Can any rational thinking human deny that this is an issue and not prepare themselves accordingly to how they see the future of debt and money? Can they be blamed for doing so? Can they also still put 80% or 90% of their portfolio where they see other profit potential without being accused of worrying about hyperinflation? Can an investor be a thinking investor without being a chicken little?

     

    It's called asset allocation and far from being a "story." The flaw of Modern Portfolio Theory is they base it on what is called a "risk free asset." Treasuries and currency are hardly risk free. That's why you own some insurance (among many other reasons, mostly related to the $4 trillion+ of sub-investment grade derivatives held by the nations top banks).
    9 May 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Doug

     

    Thanks for the input!
    9 May 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    Do you also favor silver in similar fashion or is only gold filling your pot for the long-term trip?
    11 Jun 2013, 03:44 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Morning to all..

     

    Anyone have a thought about Jaime possibly leaving JPM if he doesn't get his way? Is he bailing out just in time like BB will be ?

     

    Remember if you like the posts from others please hit the LIKE button to get more responses !!
    12 May 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT
    If anything he is being kicked out by the big boyzz because of the Whale losses
    12 May 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Think that is really the reason or that they are running out of gold and want to blame it on someone??

     

    He was a pawn for the Fed wasn't he ? I always thought he was untouchable ?
    12 May 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT
    It could be that the Whale losses are more than admitted and losses have to do with the gold/silver shorts; for sure we'll never know but there are too many higher up changes and how they say where there is smoke, there is fire....we'll find out by the end of the year; JPM is also in charge of the interest rates swaps derivatives!!
    13 May 2013, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, I have had enough of these FLASH CRASHES.. Any thoughts folks?? Is this normal? I really don't remember them happening basically weekly does anyone else??

     

    http://fxn.ws/ZUkQkP
    12 May 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Political topic folks!! I have had enough personally!!

     

    Some poster thought the IRS game is just fine, I do not!! Here was my response. I appreciate some thoughts on this.

     

    "I hope you surely jest. The IRS is ok? I guess Bengazi was too?, Now we have the DOJ raiding AP'S info?, That ok as well. I ASSUME Fast and Furious and Feinstein trying to take away the 2nd amendment is cool?

     

    Where I live my neighbors are getting quite fed up with all the shenanigans taking place. Holder should be held responsible as well as our POTUS. Glad I am a member of the NRA!!"

     

    It looks like things are starting to unravel for this administration and we should hold their feet to the fire!! It looks like an attack on both the 1st and 2nd amendment to me..
    14 May 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here's a link that shows how serious this is !!
    http://huff.to/10nSpw2

     

    I should have included this in my prior post!...
    14 May 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Question for all..

     

    What will happen first. Inflation or deflation?? How will this effect our economy ??

     

    Looking forward to some input.
    19 May 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT
    I believe that we are going to have deflation in sectors of the economy where there are bubbles like the stock markets; the US$ has being going up but I don't think Bernanke wants the US$ up but I see inflation going up when it goes down by making our imports more expensive and oil especially; I don't see how US$ can go up when nothing has been fixed and I believe people are making a mistake buying into safety of US$ and USTs
    20 May 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    Well that would be a 50-50 guess. I think Benny will do ANYTHING, to keep deflation from occurring but he has been at it now for 4 years and things are not changing except we now face a morphing beast so he may give up at some point but I DO NOT THINK SO since they need inflation to erase those debts that we now have. Think what 22 trillion in debt requires to pay off not to mention the FED has a huge amount of debt too. Inflation is what they NEED so I think inflation is what we get.
    20 May 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I wonder what BB has up his sleeve for his next move? Clearly QE'S HAVEN'T really worked to ignite any inflation, and it might send us into a deflationary period it seems..
    20 May 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    How does inflation erase debit? It just changes the relative number for everything...?
    20 May 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    I guess I should have said it makes it easier to pay off with inflated dollars. We are paying in pennies when they inflate the minimum wage to $250 per hour in 10 years for example. It helps those who owe the debt but destroys those who the debt is owed to. Any manipulation results in winners and losers.
    20 May 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Okay, I get it now. The debitor owes x. In this case the gvt. With inflation they still owe by agreement, x. Only now x isn't worth was it was when the deal was made. It's worth a fraction of what it was worth as money inflates.

     

    Come to think of it... it's part of why home ownership tends to work. The mortgage is fixed at a previous level. For a while you're paying interest. After a point with inflation, you're paying the same dollar amount, but it's much less "money".

     

    My gut was for inflation as well, as the manipulated goal of keeping a very mild rise on... (while claiming it doesn't exist so no one panics. Well people who don't buy groceries.) You've stated an important reason why.
    20 May 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    dg
    50-50 guess? I don't think so; think what happened to the housing bubble when it burst? prices went down!! with a cheaper US$$ we are exporting inflation to the world and our imports have higher prices due to higher raw materials, ask China, India, and Brazil where they have to import materials for their manufacturing exports....it is like we don't see inflation when we go at Walmart...what a perfect world
    20 May 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    IT, you first have to define the two before discussing. Then you have to further see what is involved on the supply/demand curve and who is involved. So it's not a black and white scenario.

     

    When I wrote Chapter 4 of my book you are reading, you'll see that's how I started the chapter (Page 52). This is also where Austrians and others disagree, and even Austrians disagree.

     

    I don't consider deflation and inflation prices, as much as I do the money supply. Where I believe many Austrians have it wrong is they don't consider credit in their definitions. I'm not sure why they don't, but as much QE Bernanke has been pumping into the system, why haven't we had inflation? It's because it's still being swallowed up by the contraction process. Yes, some of the liquidity is reaching other areas (stocks and real estate) but this is only temporary. Bernanke has no choice but to continue QE in my opinion.

     

    At some point, we will see inflation. As Japan has shown, it can be further away than most think. But we are not Japan by a long shot.

     

    20 May 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Doug

     

    Any opinion on today's recent bounce back in the metals? I read silver was down 9% overnight? Then I hear Soros and some other have taken a bullish position in gold. Am I correct?

     

    I encourage people to hit the like button if your learned anything or actually think the questions asked are important. It should attract new posters as well. Thanks !
    20 May 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    Would you agree we can't have any sifnificant inflation unless money velocity speeds up? Despite the QE's, Bernanke is not able to speed up the velocity, that needs to come primarily from consumers and its not happening as consumers are still underfunded, plus unemployment is much higher than the govt stats suggest, etc.
    20 May 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    tampat

     

    Bernanke is working overtime in getting freshly printed money to the bankers and international bankers; our friends, the bankers, are using the money to buy assets on the cheap and presently have more assets then before the 2007-2008 collapse; we, the people, are not on the agenda
    20 May 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    Rinascimento, we are not on the agenda because we are on the menu.
    21 May 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    @Rin

     

    I don't know if I totally agree, but that was too funny!!

     

    I don't think there's an actual specific goal to put us on the menu....it's just an unhappy consequence.

     

    ....but I do think every independent investor who's frugal & saves & makes thoughtout decisions (like not getting subprime mortgages)... has been thrown under the bus. There's no interest rate to be had. I didn't buy a big house I couldn't afford, so no one bailed me out so I could keep it or at least not lose my shirt over my greed. If I'd just not pay the IRS, or pay back credit card loans, I'll be cut slack. If I want a ridiculous project instead of to fix our lagging infrastructure, all I have to do is apply for the money. The lack of respect for the Americans who are the most responsible...and rewards for those who aren't... will come back to haunt this country. I don't know the exact pathway, but it's an obvious concept.

     

    And that's my two cents for the day...
    21 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    guns
    You got me; I come I didn't think of it; no wonder Italy is in trouble
    21 May 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    100

     

    I agree with you; the savers are the new sacrificial lambs and the consequences will be tragic but we just got be smarter
    21 May 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3961) | Send Message
     
    DG,
    You caught me drinking coffee, almost had a caffeinated nose. ;-)
    21 May 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    IT, was hoping to get a few of my clients in at the under $21 price, but unfortunately it didn't last long enough for the markets I can trade in to open.

     

    I don't particularly care much what others say or do. Most have been wrong about the fall and have a little egg on their face, but now come out again and say gold and silver are at a bottom, and the metals fall further.

     

    I felt we were close to a clean out if we had continuation of the sell off on Monday, but we didn't. Either way, I am still writing a bullish article by the end of this week.
    21 May 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    Exactly tampat. Bernanke may say to the markets tomorrow that they will "think" about tailoring back QE by a certain future date, or he will not say anything. His words still do matter. He has people thinking all is well, when in fact it is an illusion.
    21 May 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DG

     

    Are we priced at an inflated price? Or have they covered that inflation up as well?
    21 May 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9700) | Send Message
     
    I feel that I am not properly priced, I offer much more value but my wife would probably argue that point.

     

    What are you asking about as far as inflated price. The entire market, gold, Dow? In general I think the inflated price will get worse later. I think we are at risk of a deflating price prior to inflated price but I can not say that its an absolute. It depends upon what Benny does with QE.
    22 May 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DG

     

    Meant as a joke as you first took it. Continued the blog at the bottom. Maybe your thoughts on BB'S speech as well as Lerner taking the 5th ?

     

    Please leave it on the new blog with link at the bottom.

     

    Thanks!
    22 May 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Goldtrends
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    problem is the fed hasn't been able to do anything right --- why should he get this right?

     

    he can print 100 trillion dollars----as long as no one borrows it and invests into infrastructure --- you get the only inflation he has been able to pull off ------the stock market.

     

    debt is not inflationary --- consumption is... and money in pockets. the greater the debt ---the more it takes away from consumption. And we are in a fractional reserve system --- every 1 million dollar loan paid off removes 10 million from ability to loan. We are in a real pickle any way you look at it ----- and its not going to be pretty.

     

    If your paycheck is taken up by paying off your house and buying food and then non left is that inflationary?

     

    If you can't make the payment and default of your house is that inflationary?

     

    I don't think so. Essentials like food ---what we need -- sure that will be inflationary. No argument there.

     

    Again, i'm just giving my opine as that is what this forum is for. I'm not trying to convince anyone or change their thoughts. Just telling you mine -- as its not mainstream. But if it gives you something to think about and expands your understanding of the macro world, then its good.

     

    Let me put it this way ----- this is how screwed up everything is---we have the dow at 15,500 and 48 million on food stamps and we have 17 trillion in debt and rates are zero.

     

    Anyway -- i'm bullish on metals. its just we're going thru a big correction. All markets do that.
    22 May 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    trends
    Yes I believe also that the commodities bull market is still on and like Jim Rogers keeps saying, it is only correcting;if CBs were not managing the markets, things would be a lot different but eventually the markets win; the Fed can not repeal the laws of supply and demand and when commodities prices are depressed, the is less supply and eventually prices will increase more; hey, what the hell, the DOD has to pay even more for their expensive toys!! it is not just investors getting screwed
    22 May 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @GOLDS

     

    This is exactly what I was hoping for when I started this. I like what people are thinking, willing to put in writing, and give their reasons !!

     

    We have people reading but unsure how their question or lack of understanding will be answered. I hope we all understand that we NEED to be in this together. We NEED to EDUCATE one another as well.

     

    Not all have to agree but I want to attract as many opinions as possible from all types of individuals. No question is stupid, neither is any response because we are in unchartered waters right now.

     

    Guessing and timing is fine although I learned a few years ago that is futile. I might feel I know what will happen, it is the when I am unsure of.

     

    So thanks for opening up for us. I am sure a ton of readers learned something new. I did !!
    22 May 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Yes, I'd like to discuss about inflation; many posters keep insisting that there is no inflation; well, I strongly disagree; when beer is been watered down, cheaper ingredients are being substituted for the more expensive original commodities, sizes and weight getting smaller, and higher prices, these are enough reasons for me to call it inflation; you pay more but get less; a lot posters fail to see this.
    22 May 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    I'm female, & it hasn't escaped a lot of grocery shopping mom's! I can't believe people haven't noticed. A can of tuna used to feel almost two people. Now I eat it all myself & go looking for something more. There's folks who haven't noticed it with everything? Definitely there's inflation.
    22 May 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks

     

    Funny but I buy a special shampoo for a skin condition. Now all of a sudden they put it in a fancy box, change the label, but also remove 3 oz as well. They charge the same but people say no inflation??
    22 May 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    curis

     

    Thank you for the acknowledgement; it is frustrating when many posters keep saying inflation is under control or non-existent
    23 May 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    " I offer much more value but my wife would probably argue that point."

     

    Welcome to the club.
    11 Jun 2013, 03:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Hi! Question for everyone --- What do you consider a good average yearly return?

     

    What index or measure do you go by? What resource do you use to get that info?

     

    I've been invested for years, but casual about it. Now I'm looking back & wondering how well I did? If poorly, I'll change strategies! If well, I'll trust my instincts.

     

    So from late Sept 2009 to current - return was 9.8% APY
    after taxes & fees (i.e. total worth then, to total worth now.)
    savings was negligible. Total time 44 months.

     

    From 15 years ago to current - return was 6.8%. APY

     

    I used a compounding calculator to take the total dollar change & figure out the APY if compounded daily for that whole time.
    19 May 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    curis....

     

    Most people simply want to beat inflation, so they use the CPI as their guide (government's version of it). Others use the S&P 500.

     

    80% of mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers don't beat the index. So if you are consistently beating the index, then you are doing quite well. You have obviously beat inflation.
    20 May 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Doug

     

    I posted the same response to Curl in a pm as well. Thanks for backing up my opinion publicly!!

     

    Gonna finish that book soon as well. Wife handed me a honey do list right after the Graduations.. Then of course MY NY teams are or were in the playoffs.

     

    Thanks for dropping in and helping out. BTW a poster asked me what the premium was from you on a 100 oz Engelhard bar of silver. Can you quote anything here??

     

    For those that do not know Doug sells gold and silver and has a site you can visit as well, and an Author of a couple of books you can buy on Amazon!!
    20 May 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    This link might help you out.

     

    http://bit.ly/115ovP2
    20 May 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Doug! I thought this would be a more interesting question for people, than it seems to be.

     

    I'm trying to grow the money for retirement so beating inflation is not nearly adequate.

     

    There's the hype of "keep money in the markets & get average return better than a bank or bonds, over the years." In reality, how much do people really wind up making?

     

    Didn't occur to me till you answered, to just randomly pull S&P numbers from a historical chart & do the same method on them. Looks like my higher number for more recently near 10%, doesn't top the market S&P but the longer term lower number near 6% does for that time period.

     

    While managers don't beat each year... I wonder what their longer term average is. If the better ones had a few very good years, that elevate their running total so they are closer to the index even while not beating it most years. I haven't seen that specific research.
    20 May 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link. It's a great resource for tracking the CPI. Obviously helpful when estimating real returns...!
    20 May 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    IT, thanks....depends on which supplier and the amount purchased. If 500 or more ounces, my costs are the lowest anywhere. I even had a company who is contracting with me for purchases for their clients, and a hedge fund that buys from me. If less than 500, I can still compete well.
    21 May 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    curis, if you look at the work from Ed Easterling, his data goes back 100 years and you can compare notes. Managers may do well with one fund, but then get swayed away to another. Then they may have a bad year. Trading isn't easy. So if you are beating them long term, maybe you should apply for one of their jobs, haha!

     

    I think the key to being successful in trading is to be patient and wait for the right set up. I think a lot of gold and silver investors have learned this the last year or so.

     

    Another key, is one doesn't have to go long. With the ETFs that allow you to trade inversely, some nice profit can be had. But it's a different psychology than most can handle.

     

    Of course no financial advisor would ever recommend you do that, lol.
    21 May 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    When my father first passed on in 2002 and left me an IRA my advisor helped place the funds and said the annual target was to increase the portfolio by 7-10%. He failed miserably at doing this for me but I thought that was a nice range and back then when i figured on making 8% per year over 20 years, the result was impressive. It's just too bad figures on paper mean nothing especially when the arket tanks as it did in 2008. Having been through that experience, I would be please with a consistent return of 6-8% each year. Oh, and by the way, that advisor is no longer my advisor. He is, however, a major reason I started educating MYSELF on the market.
    12 Jun 2013, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Rich - repost this on chapter 7 too! Others would enjoy it. Many I think have similar war stories.
    12 Jun 2013, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Luongo
    , contributor
    Comments (1318) | Send Message
     
    GLD options have expired.... Gold will likely rise this week, but as we move towards futures on options expiration the selling will begin again. the question is whether the Chinese will meet them at a higher price this time and force a massive short squeeze.
    21 May 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (4891) | Send Message
     
    Will be interesting to see what Bernanke says tomorrow as well Tom. If anything. Not sure there is a reason to say anything right now. If he did say anything, it would be on the side of reigning in QE, which could be gold negative. So for now, I am leaning towards lower prices for gold and silver after the meeting. I am sure some of my "leaning" is because I want the prices to fall further in set up for my next article, haha!

     

    I have noticed the volatility on the days Bernanke speaks where one can profit from both sides of the trade. I wrote a comment on it on Avi's article to see if he ever plays that pattern, but didn't get a reply. I used to do business with a guy who would make a killing on straddles like this. Then his wife took all his profits via divorce.
    21 May 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Rare earths have made nice moves lately.
    21 May 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BD4

     

    Can you expand on that ??
    21 May 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2074) | Send Message
     
    Since May 6th,
    REE up 19%
    REMX up 5.87%
    QRM up 12.42%
    Those are nice moves and I hope they continue.
    21 May 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They are nice moves for sure!!
    21 May 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3961) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    tripleblack has an insta on REEs. http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 May 2013, 04:07 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @STILL

     

    Yes, I know. I broke in with those guys years ago. Thanks for supplying the link for others !!

     

    New link for follow up discussions on the bottom........

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 May 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ben spoke...MORE PRINTING !!!!!!!
    22 May 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9082) | Send Message
     
    Is that what he said? I've been watching & it's all so vague.... sounds a whole lot to me like "be happy, don't worry" with a touch of "don't worry your head & let anything I say make your head think too hard."
    22 May 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » INSTABLOG CONTINUED !!!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 May 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Follow the above link to continue new topics !! Ben's comments have the rally in both gold and silver continuing!!

     

    JOIN IN !!
    22 May 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now Lerner takes the 5th !! Leave comments on NEW blog. This one running too long..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 May 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1719) | Send Message
     
    Is it time for gold and silver smackdown yet?
    22 May 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (15172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Please post this on new blog. This one is taking too long to load for a few of us..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 May 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
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