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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 4...... 156 comments
    Jun 2, 2013 4:35 PM | about stocks: EXP, GPL, AUY, LYSCF, PSEC, PSLV, REMX, SLV, KKD, MUX, GGN, GNT, RAD, GDXJ, LMNX, NEM, ABX, AMZN, XOM, GE, IBM, EMR, ORCL, QCOM, CSCO, CHUY, MDBX, TSLA

    Where do commodities go from here, are stocks and bonds still sound investments? Oil. Etf's Physical metals..

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug, Chris, Focal Point, Tack, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (156)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ANYONE who missed posting on PART 3 ??

     

    I suggest you go back and read it as soo much info was passed around !!

     

    HIT THAT LIKE BUTTON !!
    2 Jun 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3234) | Send Message
     
    @ IT or anyone that wishes to respond
    I have been debating with some anti Gold posters on Robt. Wagners hit piece on Peter Schiff. Here's the simple statement I made. I can't believe the disingenuous reply's .The posters there don't want to acknowledge that some people lost 1/2 or more of their pension and or 401k's after a lifetime of saving,all in the 2008 crash.What am I missing ?
    The stock market does not let you win if you start with $100,000 at 14K DOW and then it goes to 7K and then back to 14 K does it ?Wouldn't you be be a net loser. When you do the math what do you end up with ?
    19 Jun 2013, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    I would copy and place this in Chapter 11. I agree with you however I am taking inflation and other factors in my answer, Others who do this trading daily might have a different response.

     

    Or they may still have this bookmarked as well,, It all depends on what stocks you owned too. Did you not sell any of them ? Because they would have to go back up to the same exact dollar amount per share .
    19 Jun 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3234) | Send Message
     
    Well ,that makes sense of course. But I would just use the DJIA index because most people who had 401K's in 2007 and got wiped out ,turning them into 201 K's in 2008 ,were mostly in Mutual Funds.And what I have noticed when you look at charts MF's are just Stock soup in these retirement accounts. They mirror the DJIA .I suppose if everything was exactly the same when the market returned to 14K from the 7 K level you could say you were even. However how many years of being in the loss column would people be willing to wait? Opportunity costs? I would think that waiting 5 years would be a terrible waste of time +money.The only way it would make sense is if a person (A retired person) that just lost 1/2 of their life savings in the paper market was bold enough to double down on the market coming back. Hoping it would go back up to where it was before they got thrashed . This could only happen of course if they had the resources available to do that. Not likely at all .Just looking for some perspective on this. Since it DID happen, the markets did lose pensioners money after a lifetime of savings was lost forever by Stock traders with no morals .Those traders were the epitome of a "Moral Hazard" I don't believe we can ignore that. Especially considering the market's are poised to do the same thing again with the DOW over 15 K.
    19 Jun 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    CoinsK:

     

    I am one of those guys and I am posting your comment on Chapter 11 of this blog.

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3234) | Send Message
     
    What is chapter 11 ? Not bankruptcy LOL.
    19 Jun 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    Coins,

     

    I see the point about your math regarding the market and that may indeed apply to some investors who sat back and did nothing during that timeframe. Worse yet there are those that sold out at the lows and are now back to work because their lifetime savings were lost and they never allowed themselves the opportunity to get it back with this rebound.

     

    However, without being a genius, there are those that sold some positions when things got ugly raised some cash , then nibbled on the way back up.
    Believe me those folks are definitely ahead here. I had clients that bought (GE) @ 6 . (INTC) @ 12. the list goes on
    I'm not talking about being a perfect market timer either.. Just some common sense.

     

    What it does say is that ALL investments need to be monitored and emotions need to be left at the door, Its not EZ , it comes with experience , some have a natural gift or sense , I'm not one of those gifted , but I had mentors that beat certain principles into me.. saved my personal portfolio and assisted others to get thru that period.

     

    The PM markets are not immune from giving back their entire gains either... No market is.. There are many that say we might just be headed in that direction. So one also has to be cautious and leave emotion out of their decisions..
    Best of luck

     

    .

     

    19 Jun 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting question asked by CURLS..

     

    @ Everyone
    Here's a dumb question. What makes treasury & bond rates increase?

     

    First, it is not a dumb question as I am sure plenty who follow us don't know the answer. So I turn this over to the posters!!!

     

    MAYBE a few can tackle this?
    2 Jun 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Concerning curls' question:

     

    The price of your bond will move inversely to interest rates. When interest rates go up, your bond will go down and when interest rates go down, your bond will go up. these are previously issued bonds trading on the open market.

     

    Let' say your bond is issued for $1,000 for 10 years with a 3% coupon or interest rate, paid every year. Then interest rates rise to 4%.

     

    If you want to sell this bond, nobody will buy it when it is paying 1% below market rates (3% vs. 4%). You can’t change the interest rate on the bond. That’s fixed at 3%. But you can change the price you will take for the bond.

     

    The annual payment of $30 ($1,000 x 3%) must equal a 4% payment. Therefore, your bond must be discounted to $750 so the $30 fixed payment equals a 4% yield on the buyer’s investment ($750 x 4% = $30).

     

    If interest rates are going down you will be able to sell your bond at a premium over face value because the fixed interest rate would be higher than the market rate.

     

    Of course if you keep your bond for 10 years you will cash the interest every year + the original capital will remain intact on year 10.

     

    Krustyman
    2 Jun 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @Krusty -- I'll post this on the new page too. I know about interest rates vs. bond value & premiums & discounts (I owned a muni & cef once upon a time sold to me by a "very nice broker man"). I didn't ask my question well at all. I'm wondering who's setting the treasury prices? How are the rates themselves determined to go up or down? Corporates & junk & munis & bank rates & charge card rates are based off the other going rates.

     

    So when rates went up last week.... who's rates went up (I thought treasury) & who decided to push them? And how did they determine what rate to use? I'm quite sure the answer will make me feel like a kindergartener... but I've gotta ask.

     

    What's very helpful in your answer here, is that I've never had a clear sense of how to calculate the discount or premium equivalence, so I'm saving those notes away!!
    2 Jun 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    curls

     

    with the US$ up it wouldn't surprise me if China dumped some US treasuries...the interest rates swaps derivatives determine interest rates, imho
    3 Jun 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Funny, but can you put that statement is English that newbies can understand. Including me!
    3 Jun 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    IT
    Following is the definition of IRS and the $$ amount:
    An interest rate swap (IRS) is a popular and highly liquid financial derivative instrument in which two parties agree to exchange interest rate cash flows, based on a specified notional amount from a fixed rate to a floating rate (or vice versa) or from one floating rate to another. Interest rate swaps are commonly used for both hedging and speculating.
    The Bank for International Settlements reports that interest rate swaps are the largest component of the global OTC derivative market. The notional amount outstanding as of June 2009 in OTC interest rate swaps was $342 trillion, up from $310 trillion in Dec 2007. The gross market value was $13.9 trillion in June 2009, up from $6.2 trillion in Dec 2007.
    http://bit.ly/11eba1g

     

    JPM and other investment banks (Morgan Stanley) are the agents for the Fed to generate IRS to control interest rates on US treasuries; it is easy to accomplish this because there are no more bonds vigilantes like in the old days and the Fed buys 75%-80% of the bonds; the challenge is for how long this can continue until the bubble bursts
    I hope this helps
    3 Jun 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    You got that? hehe
    3 Jun 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Now I remember where I heard about IRSs. I was checking out, what in the world the stable value fund is, in my 401k (they give no cash option). Must say, IRSs sounded so much less nefarious in the fund prospectus. Here, they leave my head spinning.

     

    So does the Fed set the treasury interest rate? (Is this a basic fact?)

     

    ....then thru witch craft & cutting down of trees into much paper, investment banks acting as agents for the Fed do stuff on paper that swaps around rates resulting in a impact on those previously set Treasury rates?

     

    What was a bond vigilante? Do they still exist in the form of Feds sneaking in at night to stop anyone from buying Fed bonds so the Fed can scoop them up just before dawn... and rescue them still wet & new, from us, the unsuspecting public?
    3 Jun 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations I see your blog has made the SA top 25
    2 Jun 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BD4

     

    I did not know they keep records like that ! Thanks guys, Keep up the dialog!
    3 Jun 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    It's at the bottom of the home page ... http://bit.ly/YMB4YE
    3 Jun 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    Something to ponder this Monday morning.
    Since 1983 the monthly rate of change in the 10-year Treasury
    yield has only exceeded 20% three times.
    That happened early in 2003, followed by a huge rally taking the S & P from the 1000 level to 1500 4 yrs. later. Another 20% change happened again in February 2009, and its obvious what happened after that.
    Just pull up a 10 yr chart of the S & P to put it in perspective.
    Now over the past few weeks it has occurred for a third time and it will be interesting to see if we get a similar result as seen in the two previous instances.

     

    Market will always confound the greatest number of people..
    3 Jun 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Markets look like they are struggling while the metals seem to be gaining strength again. Does anyone think (GDXJ) IS A GOOD BUY RIGHT NOW?
    3 Jun 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    I added 5.24 @ $11.27 up little over 11% . Looking at the chart if it breaks through it could pop from here. http://bit.ly/18MMAgH
    3 Jun 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    (GDXJ) certainly oversold here, so u certainly aren't buying at the top..
    The chart sure looks like there is "blood in the streets" , a sign for LT investors to consider dipping in. I am looking here and the Gabelli (GGN) & (GNT) funds that were mentioned earlier as diversification.

     

    Haven had time to research their distribution history, do u know what that looks like ? Believing you are looking for the longer haul , establishing a position here and collecting a decent distribution, isn't a bad idea.. If it turns out to consolidate here and be stagnant for a while u are at least getting paid to wait.
    3 Jun 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Here is my dilemma. Do I sell (PSEC) expecting a drop lower but losing that large dividend to buy (GDXJ) ???

     

    It is in my wives retirement account . Most shares (PSEC) were bought about a buck higher then today's price...
    3 Jun 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    fear

     

    I have owned GGN for a few years for its high dividends; dividend was reduced from $.14 per month to $.12 last year but don't be surprised if it is reduced again due to the mining stocks being hit; portions of the dividends comes from writing calls on the stocks and from capital gains distributions......I don't know how dividends will be affected if mining stocks continue to stay low
    3 Jun 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Always a difficut call , never ez is it..
    believe u have already figured it out (PSEC) great div, but probably headed lower. (GDXJ) washed out and could be ready for a bounce.. The projected dist. on GDXJ is .75 Or about 6% ?, if so u are sacrificing half your yield for possible appreciation.. Not the end of the world..

     

    How about selling a portion of (PSEC) and buying (GDXJ) ? combo of yield and maybe get the bounce in GDXJ.
    3 Jun 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    How's the dog house IT nice?
    3 Jun 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Italians don't like losing money. I am not Italian. My better half is and the dog hose has company I am sure !!
    3 Jun 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I am in the same boat ,, Luvly , smiling Italian wife , Until the accounts go negative !!

     

    LOL
    3 Jun 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » May ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.0 vs. 51.0 consensus and 50.7 prior.
    Monday, June 3, 10:01 AM ET
    May ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.0 vs. 51.0 consensus and 50.7 prior.

     

    Now if I understand this correctly we just slipped into a contraction, am I correct and if I am what does it mean for the markets ??
    3 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I don't think anything major will happen to the markets until Bernanke retires
    3 Jun 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Did BB retire??
    5 Jun 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I have not seen anything official but the word is that BB desires to retire....He is not attending the annual Jackson Hole, WY, bankers' meeting and his term ending soon
    6 Jun 2013, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    He knows when to bail for sure!
    6 Jun 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin - lol, lol.

     

    @Fear & Greed,
    That 20% change is intriguing.

     

    @Krusty - MUX's done well today (though I missed the ride) as you've been predicting. It was during that earlier morning rise...
    3 Jun 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    Nice day! However, I am not in (MUX) at the moment. It is still the best junior out there (in my view) for people who wants to trade the miners.

     

    I would not be surprised to see the stock run to the $3.50 zone short term.

     

    Right now, I try to identify which stocks have recently broken a multi-year base (during the past weeks/months) on strong volumes. KKD and RAD are one of them. Furthermore, these two are improving their fundamentals, which is another important criteria.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    3 Jun 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those playing the miners what impact does this article have, if any??

     

    http://bit.ly/14pKpZu

     

    Biggest Gold Mine In The World Shutdown: Is This The Catalyst Gold Has Been Awaiting?

     

    Me thinks CURLS has been trading today, been quiet since lunchtime!!
    3 Jun 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    "Me thinks CURLS has been trading today, been quiet since lunchtime!!"

     

    Sadly I have to be out of the house quite a bit... and lose the chance to be playing around. It was going down when I left. So I missed the whole rise :(.

     

    Everyone else have a good stock day?
    3 Jun 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    krusty/curls

     

    I have owned MUX for a while and I think if McEwen succeeds like he did in GG, there is a lot of money to be made; he is in process to sell the copper mine in Argentina and the company has no debt; he also is part owner of LEXVG, a gold exploration company, which released a good report today of exploration work in the Timmins gold district and the company has cash and no debt.
    3 Jun 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    sorry there is a typo it is LEXVF instead of LEXVG
    3 Jun 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rin. I haven't done anything PM related, but I like a company or two that's got a strong new head.

     

    Mux was higher & is came down a lot in between. Does that imply anything?
    3 Jun 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    I tried to bracket your symbol for others but apparently for trading it is missing something. Look as the symbol does not highlight but shows up on Yahoo (LEXVF)... I am sure were missing something!

     

    Should show up in blue!
    4 Jun 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Anyone looking at (YOKU)?

     

    I am really tempted. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    3 Jun 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FOLKS

     

    Did anyone hear the FED spokesperson on FOX today? Said that they will start to taper, or the world was tinker, with slowing down their purchases soon. But left the door wide open that they will ANYTHING they need to do to keep the economy flowing.!!

     

    Now can that be interpreted as maybe possibly opening the faucets further? I heard parts of the interview and came away with the feeling he was playing on both sides of the fence.

     

    @KRUSTY

     

    Did you nibble at all today??
    3 Jun 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
     
    IT
    Those Fed dudes; typical government speakers.....wishy-washy
    3 Jun 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    A lot of research but no trading today and bought Nicolas Darvas book on investing that was published in 1960: How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market:The Darvas system for stock market profits.

     

    I heard that it was a very interesting book.

     

    Krustyman :-)
    3 Jun 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    When you finish the book tonight can you give us your thoughts on it ? :)
    3 Jun 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Tonight? lol! ;-)

     

    Krustyman
    4 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    Ok, I will give you till noon then. It isn't as thick as the bible is it?

     

    Have you any symbols for the group to look at yet? Some Newbies have PM'D me and I have said I would throw out the question to EVERYONE!!
    4 Jun 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    (RAD) and (KKD) as mid-long term investments.

     

    (LMNX) seems ready for a move soon. Short term trading.

     

    I don't know what (YOKU) is waiting for! :-) Short term trading.

     

    (PLG) for agressive traders. This stock is a beauty and the company is full of cash. In addition, platinum is both sensitive to PMs movements and the economy (cars). The perfect metal IMHO.

     

    Krustyman
    4 Jun 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    I see some symbols are getting mixed up. I have found if you post then go back to edit you MUST redo the symbol or you get what you see. That has happened to me! Would you mind just listing the symbols one more time for those who just like to click and read instead of writing it down.

     

    Thanks!
    4 Jun 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    How short do you mean by short term trading? I'm watching (LMNX) & (YOKU).

     

    For (RAD) & (KKD), I'm waiting till there's a dip in the market in general.
    4 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bracket, brackets....!!!! lol
    4 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Done :-)
    4 Jun 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    By short term I mean a couple of days to a couple of weeks.

     

    It depends what my gut is telling me...and the market too! :-)

     

    I may be wrong but I would be surprised to see any significant dip in (RAD) and (KKD). Typical mass psychology. I am not saying that in a condescending way (because I paid to learn that!) but rather because they all had their respective pull-back (from their new 52 weeks high) already IMHO.

     

    I have also observed an interesting fact. People in general are chasing stocks that are making new lows rather than new highs. It is however the later that usually indicates a bull market.

     

    Krustyman
    4 Jun 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    I'm used to the idea that if the market tanks downward, pretty much everything goes with it. I don't want to buy at the high, since I'm expecting more correction. So... based on your learning (nothing condescending about mass psychology... a lot of fields are based on it!) & your stock experience... you're more used to individual stocks moving on their own. ...that's what's been new to me. Do you see the question I have in here? If these are longer term, & the market corrects, aren't I likely to have picked them up at a higher point if I buy now? I can wait till the overall correction when these come down some more too.

     

    Both on review seemed like good finds to me, so I'm not worried about that.

     

    Of course, if things go sideways then up... I should be getting in now. I'll have to think on that.

     

    Short term - thanks. I'll look for a low point to hop in, & wait.
    4 Jun 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    "People in general are chasing stocks that are making new lows rather than new highs. It is however the later that usually indicates a bull market."

     

    I agree, the euphoria talked about as sign of bull running, isn't there. Everyone's on sitting on a pin cushion, waiting to see what everyone else is doing (how the market's moving) to see whether to get in more, or get out more. "Looking for the dips" though is expectation that it will go higher? Though also, there have been several articles about "don't buy this dip." So not even the dips are free game for chasing any more.

     

    On (YOKU) do I'm curious how you'd look at this question. There were a couple dips recently. 6/3 morning, 5/23 close. Would it make more sense to wait till it comes into one of those dips, or go for it along the sequence it's running now? Also, what are you seeing that makes you think it's going to pop?
    4 Jun 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    The ultimate truth is that we never know for sure what will happen with our investments. :-)

     

    But what is important here is to stick with our strategy. Example: When I buy for a long term investment the stock could crash by 30% and I won't care at all. What is important is where the stock should be in 2,3 or 4 years according to my plan. The biggest mistake people are doing IMHO is to sell a (long term) stock when it just crashed 10% short term. Quite the opposite, it's time to buy more (if in a bull market).

     

    The same principle applies to trading as well. If someone buys a stock for trading with a 5% target and then don't sell and change its plan because when the target has been reached he thinks ''it's gonna go higher long term''...well it does not usually work. Same thing when a stock crashes. If you put a mental stop at -5% before the trade, well, sell when it reaches your mental stop. I saw too many people stuck with losers ( I am talking about stocks here :-) ) that became ''long term'' trades when they were supposed to be short term.

     

    Where am I going with all this?? lol :-)

     

    You are doing the right thing. Wait until you are comfortable and follow your plan.

     

    Krustyman
    4 Jun 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    I don't have on plan on these yet. So I was hoping for more of a sense of your plan, so I can figure out my own. Don't worry - I'm not asking things to assume that what's right for you is right for me. I'm just data gathering. I'm a stubborn as a bull contrarian -- except when I agree with the crowds. In other words, I figure things out for myself & then get surprised that there even is a "group" view (like 30% looks like). (All true in my personal non-finanical life too.)

     

    Any thoughts on the questions I posed? (I've gotta leave, so I'll be back later.)
    4 Jun 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @Krusty

     

    I'm back, so I have time to read your comments more thoroughly. That's some sage advice you give!

     

    On (YOKU), I may have missed it in your comments, but what makes it appealing?

     

    On (RAD) & (KKD), if they've had the pullback (that helps that you said that), & they are longer term growth purchases, then it doesn't much matter when to get them. The question for me, is getting in before their done well enough that everyone & his uncle thinks to buy them... vs. wanting to wait till the market goes down more if it's going to, since then everything goes down. I'm very positive on (RAD)'s potential. I have a little more hesitation on (KKD) since it's so competitive a market niche they're in. Though, I remember those donuts were the talk of the town when they started. I wondered then if Dunkin Donuts would survive.

     

    On the short term ideas, it's hard for me to figure out a plan since I don't know what prices & run ups you're thinking of... and I'm not experienced on short term to know what to look for myself yet. I can't tell if they've run up too far to make them not worth the risk. If you have time to post details on any, I'm all ears :). Meanwhile, I'm not sure which I'll buy, and tracking is good too until I have an instinct.

     

    (TSLA) also looks interesting, but with that P/E, I'm not touching it.

     

    ... it is fun though!
    5 Jun 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    I added two small positions in (ACI) and (http://bit.ly/tfbCVq) (http://bit.ly/tfbCVq) .... Vale made me $21 and Arch lost me $12. I see them as the start of longer term holdings.
    I thought this was interesting ... http://bit.ly/11SxZNW
    3 Jun 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BD4 AND OTHERS....

     

    If the dollars days are numbered how can you invest and make money? Please repeat the second symbol for me as well.

     

    Thanks!
    3 Jun 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Sorry IT SA did some strange things to my post VALE was the symbol every time I posted it was bad. Brazilian miner stock of Iron copper Etc. Seemed oversold.
    3 Jun 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article about VALE ... http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Jun 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Am I gonna get any love ( likes ) from my new buddies ??

     

    My % is dropping ( lol )

     

    Seriously , I can use at least one like per comment to try and recruit some newbies that read my comments on other articles. I really do appreciate it !

     

    Thanks.
    3 Jun 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1251) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT --my first post on your blog.
    I will throw some things out about VALE and BHP and commodities (DBC). These are maybe the two largest mining companies in the world. As miners they produce commodities. BHP had a failed rally July - Dec last year. VALE has just been continuously trending down since Jan 2011. DBC is a commodity ETF. All three of these are below their 50 and 200 day MA.

     

    I would say that suggests that there are deflationary pressures out there. Perhaps exhaustion of the expansion process and credit contraction with high debt load as a drag. Anyway they look too negative to assume a bottom yet.

     

    Gold and silver don't necessarily trade as commodities despite the mantras you constantly hear "Oh gold is just a shiny metal with no intrinsic value" (they actually repeat it over and over like a mantra). Actually gold has many high tech uses.

     

    I agree with Goldtrends, that the demand for gold and silver will be due to lack of trust or fear of governments. We know they will totally screw up.

     

    Germany asked that their gold held by the FED be returned to them after the FED would not allow an audit of the gold reserves. Germany is allowing 7 years for he gold to be returned. We now know for sure that the Fed can't print gold.

     

    This just shows that having the physical gold and silver is important. The only reason I can see for it to go down would be a sharp deflation triggered by an event such as a EU failure (Bank or country), or a sharp market drop that causes a liquidity squeeze.

     

    Prospect Capital,(http://bit.ly/Ne44cC) I was going to buy it last summer, then I read http://bit.ly/Qeniyh
    Management earns fees on gross assets. That means they can borrow to the max, bloat the balance sheet, and earn fat fees on gross assets, while increasing risk. Slick New York lawyers
    Prospect Capital Corporation
    10 East 40th Street
    44th Floor
    New York, NY 10016
    4 Jun 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Any thoughts on this one John? .. http://bit.ly/18Lkjoe

     

    Another take on the same... http://bit.ly/ZqXyTR
    4 Jun 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1251) | Send Message
     
    Well, what does "refine huge quantities of gold from the US." mean It says that "it was likely that a client who had invested in the gold futures market had decided to take physical delivery of its gold bars in the US when the contract expired." Are you thinking a foreign CB bought and took delivery on the Comex?

     

    That would be amazing. No wonder the Fed can't send gold back to Germany.
    4 Jun 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    It kind of is what article you believe more.
    Someone taking delivery of 1 billion in gold to make into smaller items would probably do well with premiums so high in Asia.
    If it was scrap gold made into bars by a CB to cover shortages from over leasing gold. A nice conspiracy book could be written.
    4 Jun 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @JOHN

     

    Great points were made by you Thanks! Do you have any suggestions for us who like the higher dividend in place of (PSEC)?

     

    Any thoughts on (GDXJ)?
    4 Jun 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1251) | Send Message
     
    IT
    My last instablog does not reflect current market info. I hope to put up a new one soon, but for now my last article, Gold and Silver Don't Have to Meet Earnings Estimates - Miners Do,
    http://bit.ly/11nbkKI
    - is still timely and relevant to where the market is at now.

     

    I did buy GDXJ, weeks ago to replace some other positions I had sold - I bought it because I hadn't owned it before and I was not triggering the 30 day IRS "Wash Sale" rule. which would have happened if I rebought GG.

     

    GDXJ is showing a short term buy, being above 9,18 and 36 day MAs but may see it drift down toward 28 again. See my explanation below.
    http://yhoo.it/10OdHDQ;range=3m;compare=;ind...

     

    Here is what I am looking for now. There have been two tentative bottoms in mining stocks and with this second pop upward they are getting close to the 50 day MA from which you may see a retreat as we are actually seeing now. From this retreat, if it is not anything major, and it forms a third low point, we may begin hearing comments about triple bottom or on some charts maybe Head and shoulders bottom. Depends on the stock or fund.

     

    I would be looking for this (triple bottom of H&S) to trigger a technical rally in mining stocks (they seem to be leading gold). Hopefully this rally would carry through the 50 day MAs, them it would gather steam. Then one would hold on looking for it to carry up to the 200 day MA where most likely there would be a price reaction. That would be many weeks from now.

     

    As I said in my comment above, look out for any major deflationary event from Europe or the US stock market. Don't believe that metals will move contrary to stocks in a big decline because everyone will be trying to preserve cash, or need liquidity. In other words, stocks down big, means metals down too.
    4 Jun 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks

     

    John Wilson also has a blog that I believe some would be interested and hope he posts some links for us here as well.

     

    Now does anyone have any thoughts on this ?

     

    "More from CYS Investments at KBW (previous): The speed (page 9) with which mortgage rates have increased in unlike anything seen even during the financial crisis, says CEO Kevin Grant. He muses over whether Bernanke's May testimony (taper) was confused messaging or an intentional market test. The punishment inflicted on mREITs (MORT) is well-known, but don't forget: Refinance activity will crater - gain on sale windfall to banks may be over, home affordability is now diminished, banks will be pushed to Treasurys over credit risk as the ROE on government paper is now improved. Grant's talk (webcast) is one all mREIT investors will value."

     

    HOPING WE GET SOME NEWBIES TO POST !!! Is buying rental properties as an investment either by an individual or a group forming a small business with the thought of renting them out a good idea ? I have been asked that and considered it myself.
    4 Jun 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    " Is buying rental properties as an investment either by an individual "

     

    It entirely depends on the specifics. One house in a neighborhood can be a great rental, & the one next door a bad deal.

     

    Rentals are a job. They aren't cheap easy money on the side like non-landlords picture. You have to be available to deal with repairs on a last minute notice. Renters move out, damage things, walk off with the oddest of stuff, don't pay rent & you have to take it to court to get rid of them. On the flip side, for that work, their money buys you a house & the equity increase.

     

    Generally the markets been moving up a small amount. Forclosures & shortsales aren't dominating the way they were. So buys can start to increase. The regulations & bank requirements are much stiffer, so sales aren't gangbusters high volume, but in some markets because there hasn't been new construction in years, there's hot sales & bidding wars. So...

     

    1) What's your market? Can you pick up something relatively cheap? Do you need all cash to make the deals happen fast enough to be the one to get it?

     

    2) What's the rental to monthly cost, i.e. cash flow. It's usually rare to get positive after including repair & maintanance, but that's the goal to get close to.

     

    3) What's the neighborhood & house condition? Key is, is it near good schools so it retains value? Is it a prior rental where even things that work have been abused? Or a well kept private? Offer a price accordingly. How available are renters? How flooded is the market with rentals (usually it's not.)

     

    It can be a great way to make money. It's much a slower process than the stock market. I've never done it with a group, & I'd tend to avoid unless everyone is a silent partner. There are so many decisions that can come up... like when to sell out, who to rent to, what to repair & for how much....I wouldn't want to do that with a group.

     

    There can be a pride & fun to it too. Renters appreciate a good landlord. You own a house. Then when someone trashes it, it can be very frustrating.
    4 Jun 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Thanks for that concise report!
    4 Jun 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else trading today? The market's not doing anything I want to get in on (down, down...). This is boring.
    4 Jun 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Krusty just gave out a few above to look at !!
    4 Jun 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Remember it's Tuesday
    4 Jun 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    So true - but it's not looking like an up day yet! Unfortunately, I have to leave again, & so I'll miss it if there's a climb.
    4 Jun 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Remember it's Tuesday "

     

    Well all it took was ONE fed to speak and he blew that winning streak away ! That is what scares me about this market, but I know some feel it will be a short term downswing.

     

    People way better then me might feel comfortable, maybe been through something like this before. But I haven't so I am taking no chances right now.

     

    Of course I can't find the link as to what Fed person it was. But he/she stated that easing should be implemented !!
    4 Jun 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Remind me, day to buy or sell??
    4 Jun 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/12Hh79z
    4 Jun 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2716) | Send Message
     
    IT-

     

    Today was a DOWN day so you have to go back to the beginning of today's trading, sell everything and then sell it short also.

     

    Oh yeah- Don't forget to cover all the shorts and go long with everything before today's close because tomorrow is going to be an UP day-

     

    It says so in the rule book.

     

    Windwood Trader
    4 Jun 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    bd4:

     

    That chart is hysterical. Does dunkin donuts do discounts on Tuesday mornings, so everyone's in a good mood & buying excessively?

     

    & where were the donuts today?
    4 Jun 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    It was a record ... http://usat.ly/ZMO07S
    4 Jun 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Yes
    4 Jun 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Vale ... http://bloom.bg/15xVDO2

     

    http://bloom.bg/11Vg6xY
    4 Jun 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am heavily invested in physical and have been getting cold feet lately considering selling some. I am above breakeven but I bought it years ago for insurance. Yet all I read is the economy is getting better and quite a few posters hate PM'S. So a thought on that anytime would be helpful.

     

    Don't forget to show your fellow posters some love ( likes ) !!
    4 Jun 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Any thoughts on taking some of the PM money and slowly migrate to a nice solid "Div. Growth" portfolio.. ?

     

    I am not chasing anything here , but we may see some good names that will be thrown out with the bathwater.. I am assembling a watchlist here as they come down, the REIT sector is getting hit hard , but they have had an enormous run .

     

    An idea that may work for you..
    4 Jun 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    That depends on your financial configuration of assets and what % of your total investments the PM's comprise.
    I consider my physical metals as something separate from my IRA type of investments or those in a brokerage acct.

     

    In my IRA I have more longer term holds, all of them pay a dividend, but this year I have gradually moved much of my IRA to money markets (cash) waiting for lower prices that never seem to come. In my IRA I dumped (PSEC) a few weeks ago near 11 and this week replaced it with a small order of (O), a quality REIT that has had a significant pull back due to what I think is an over-reaction to interest rate risks. If it drops to $40 I will pick up some more. A lower divi but better performer, I hope. Check out the articles by Brad Thomas for any REITS.

     

    In my brokerage acct I do shorter term trading (days, sometimes weeks). I get my ideas for these from a variety of places. Alan Brochstein here on SA often has some good ideas for short to long term plays, like (MNKD) and (HYGS), check out their charts.

     

    I dont plan to sell any PM coins until the cows come home or events boost their prices well into new highs, well above $1900/oz unless I had some type of financial disaster emergency.
    Like you, I bought years ago. If they stagnate or slowly drift down in price, oh well.

     

    If your PM holdings are a pretty significant % of your total, like
    40-50% or more, I might sell some to get a better balance.

     

    As for the economy getting better, sure, if you use smoke and mirrors to evaluate it.
    4 Jun 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    tampat I think it is Joe Springer that wrote on MNKD and HYGS. Great articles I might add. He is very thorough on his analysis. Alan is a good writer also.
    4 Jun 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13277) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    You should have gotten "cold feet" a lot sooner. Not selling of lightening big gainers is not disciplined portfolio management. You should always be looking to harvest huge gainers and redeploy to devalued issues that can again duplicate what the gainer did. As I always do, I highly recommend finding depressed value plays that offer substantial dividends because, then, it doesn't make nearly as much difference how fast the issue may rise in price, or might not make any difference at all, if the yield is higher enough.

     

    I am relentlessly looking for value, and it's often easier to find after a panicky spell. As a result of the last week's interest-rate panic, there are lots of depressed issues that got whacked that will be mostly unaffected by rate changes, even if the occur. And, I suspect that rate phobia is way overblown.

     

    Here's are just a few that were creamed in last few days and that merit attention:

     

    PFL
    PHD
    VVR
    JRO
    MTGE
    IVR
    NRF
    RAS
    PMM
    MHI
    NMA
    KCAP
    CHI
    NCV
    4 Jun 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Check out Avi Gilberts latest articles. Personally I like to buy when others want to sell at a loss. Not sure PMs have hit bottom yet, but as volatile as silver is trading, (PSLV) could be a way to trade instead of buy and hold phys. Depends on what indicators you use as to whether or not the economy is getting better.

     

    Alberta Rocks just confirmed that the Hindenburg Omen just went off for the second time in 4 days. I will come back and post the link to his insta. http://bit.ly/UGKbs6

     

    Please carefully read his linked articles so that you properly understand the implications of this indicator.
    4 Jun 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Oops, you're right, thanks for correcting that.
    4 Jun 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2716) | Send Message
     
    >IT-

     

    Re: Physical-

     

    Gold and silver seem to be moving more or less with the market in general while palladium seems to have a mind of it's own.

     

    Take a look at a chart showing palladium's price overlaid on gold and/or silver. I saw one recently but can't remember where. Palladium has them both beat- Hands down, going back a year or two.

     

    Windwood Trader
    4 Jun 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Gold is down off it's high. So unless it's a higher % in your portfolio, why not hold it till it bounces back?

     

    It very well may go down some more as the markets move, but later or sooner it'll be back up again, & the economy will be back on the ropes.

     

    If you have quite a bit (and therefore definitely should get more balance), there's been such a run up for so long, it's still a good time to sell. It's not at the peek, but it's still after a good solid gain.

     

    On the more sophisticated ideas of miners, & types (format of the assess), I'll skip "opening my mouth & removing all doubt."
    4 Jun 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Is that capitulation I hear?
    4 Jun 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Probably. But capitulation to what?
    4 Jun 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is HEEBA'S response to my quote sent via a PM that he said I could share. So now we get another side of the argument..

     

    Its tough to hold physical when we hear all these stories about the economy getting better - completely agree with you. But I dont think the economy is really getting better (company revenues have been flat) its really the stock market that has been giving the impression of a tremendous recovery.

     

    I'd look at it this way - what would you put your money in if you sell?

     

    Option #1 Real Estate: The PRICE is rising even as Housing inventory is still at 1/3 normal levels - so its not surprise homebuilders are rising because people dont have many options. As more inventory comes on the market the price wont continue to rise. Finally, lets not forget rates are at historic lows - what happens if they rise? (and they will) Home prices will drop and many of these home speculators (yes its coming back) will find themselves in a very tough position.

     

    One more note - homebuilder stocks have had a rough two weeks recently so I think smart money is exiting...

     

    Option #2 Stocks: The market has risen like 15% in the first few months so why not put money into traditional stocks? I invest a poriton of our funds in stocks but it is really OVERVALUED - only a few companies are even at fair valuations. When growth is sub-10% and P/E's are 20+ it is not a very good value-time to invest. Finally, margin debt has risen tremendously and is at the same levels as 2000 and 2007 before the market crashes - not so sure I want to be the guy holding the bag when rates or a stock market drop forces money out of the market. The stocks I find interesting (besides PMs) are the commodity/energy stocks that have been hammered and the stocks related to government stimulus (if Congress tries some massive non-Fed stimulus) like infrastructure type stocks - this is the only portion of the market that I find interesting right now

     

    Option #3 Bonds: Not much to say here... buying bonds at the highest they have ever been in terms of valuations is not my cup of tea. Its simple - if you believe rates will rise then you dont want bonds. I own no bonds for myself or any clients and have no intention of buying any

     

    Option #4 Cash: A viable option is just to hold cash and wait for a better entry point in any of the above-mentioned assets. The thing is, I think we're at the gold bottom and if there is a rush to the exits from stocks OR rates start to rise, I think gold and silver is where I would want to be. Heavy short positions in PMs are a good sign for the contrarian investor and if rates rise then there will be significant consequences to stocks and bond markets across the world. People are forgetting that Europe is still unsolved and imagine if US rates rise - what will happen to Euro bonds? Japan's bonds? European Japanese businesses - they will all suffer pretty heavily

     

    And remember gold has risen for 12 years straight - is one bad year a good reason to sell?

     

    Hold tight my friend

     

    Hebba
    4 Jun 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    When I bought my physical years ago I told myself to never sell it , never. If I did not need it just pass it down to my daughter.

     

    So you ask a good question but although quite a few here believe that physical is psychological , not fundamental, I might become Physical with something if it does spike upwards and I sold it !!

     

    My gut says to not sell, I can be wrong but they do look pretty!
    Now my paper metals have been sold a long time ago. It is the physical I just can't part with.

     

    I have had cold feet with stocks before, sold, only to see I sold on a dip and lost out on potential gains. Now time will tell if I am doing the right thing. My allocation isn't out of wack either. I just bought right after the crash and got in at a great price.

     

    Do other physical holders feel the same way?
    4 Jun 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @STILL

     

    No disrespect to Avi. But when I read his articles I interpret them to show both an up and a down. Example. He once stated that silver CAN go to $28 an ounce , BUT also wrote that he hasn't removed his position of 2 years prior that silver MIGHT also drop to $22 an ounce.

     

    Now for traders this might work out, but as an accumulator I don't see the advantage. I also read an article he wrote about gold going UP. Yet not more then 2 days later we got the smackdown where gold dropped down to $1350. I asked him about that and he said he was wrong.

     

    Plus ,and this is important, I have no clue about Elliot Waves because I do not read charts. I have heard people agree with him and others dismiss Elliott Waves completely. Me, I have no opinion since I don't understand it .

     

    If you would like to clarify anything for other please feel free!
    4 Jun 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WT

     

    I did read where Palladium was a good investment a few years ago. But by then I had bought my % of physical and just followed what it did.

     

    But that was a great point!
    4 Jun 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I could have sold at $1900 but I also hold physical for other reasons. One. and accumulators will understand this, is INSURANCE.

     

    Insurance against what you might ask, if you want that answer I am sure others will tell you the WHAT !!
    4 Jun 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (207) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Any European or other international deep value/high yield issues you currently favor for further DD?

     

    Thanks and regards
    5 Jun 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13277) | Send Message
     
    ast:

     

    Europe is a volatile bet, for sure, but here are some issues that I believe are worth consideration:

     

    SAN (probably my favorite)
    BBVA
    VE
    EDPFY
    BGAOY
    VGR
    AWP
    IGR
    5 Jun 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Hey Tack,

     

    Gotta love SAN. Wish I had bought under $5 but I keep buying more any time it's under 7. I move profits from other winners into it and keep collecting that 11% return. It's put a lot of money into my account so far.
    5 Jun 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ASTARR

     

    Welcome and a great question ! Keep posting any thoughts..
    5 Jun 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Here a little reassuring article about PM's you might like;

     

    http://bit.ly/11q19Cc
    4 Jun 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Good article. I might add right before that smackdown in gold and silver I was at a decent size coin show in NYC. I went on a Sunday, THE SHOW WAS FOR 3 DAYS.

     

    Don't you know almost all the vendors selling bullion were wiped out, and Gainesville, which usually carries a huge amount closed up on Saturday and went home. I was told that they also were taking info from you drivers license as well when you bought bullion.

     

    So are we wrong buying it? I do know the Mints sales have slowed down but they were also selling at a ridiculous pace monthly. But that Sunday I found ONE vendor for my friend and he had no problem buying it for a few bucks above on both gold and silver !
    4 Jun 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FOLKS

     

    Thanks for all the input. Been out all day so I will read and research what has been sent. Post my thoughts later..

     

    Hit that LIKE button for all you folks .I will do so later myself. Great commentary here and I have received PM'S from people who are impressed with this forum.

     

    Nice to see new posters with fresh ideas. We all won't agree but at least most of the options should be laid out for each to decide what's best for themselves.
    4 Jun 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    To everyone:

     

    MUX is to watch tomorrow folks. It is showing a lot of strength when gold goes down, which is a good sign. I am ready. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    4 Jun 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    This all leads to my next question... what's your favorite books on investing? Or sites.

     

    I need to learn more (such as the basics) in stock evaluation, and market (timing) evaluation.

     

    Also what's your least favorite, if any?
    5 Jun 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well this mornings economic numbers were again anemic. Poor jobs reports, refinancing seriously low.

     

    So can someone explain how these reports and others that seem to be negative are indeed positive for the markets?

     

    I just don't understand how this cannot effect a Corps. bottom line soon. You have soo many people looking for work !!

     

    Then add this investment idea, when do they spit the bit and say NO MAS!!

     

    Turning single-family rentals from a mom-and-pop business into a Wall Street operation sounds like a good idea, but investor dollars say differently. Colony American Homes (CAHS, a spinoff of CLNY) postpones its IPO citing market conditions, reports the WSJ. The move comes amid the weak performance of recent IPOs American Residential Properties (ARPI) and Silver Bay Realty (SBY).

     

    We might be setting up another housing bubble...THOUGHTS !!??
    5 Jun 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Housing's not an excited oversold sector, so it can't be a bubble. Sounds smart of them to hold off till there's a more upbeat market to IPO into, even if it's waiting just a week or two.

     

    The market's going down, so the negative reports are showing as negative today. The flip is then QE is less likely to be ended (so the theory goes), so the markets get happy on low interest rates & lots of liquid. Nope, nothing makes sense any more.
    5 Jun 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    ''So can someone explain how these reports and others that seem to be negative are indeed positive for the markets?''

     

    They are not. But the market is already a year ahead of that. So investors are anticipating better numbers IMHO.

     

    The next correction could be triggered by such poor numbers. Which would be a good opportunity.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Since I'm not "trading" the market, I try not to let the daily reports either positive or negative affect my thinking.. Lately we have seen some positive reports, some negative, which I view as no change to the outlook that was perceived earlier in the year. Plenty of negative reports and news were swirling around Nov.-Dec'12 , however look at what has transpired in the market since then.. So I try and put the daily stuff into perspective.

     

    Corp. profits - The S & P just recorded an all time record in that regard. The argument that they cannot keep cutting costs, etc. has been stated since the recovery in 2010, yet they continue to grow, and their stock prices have reflected that. All this during a time when unemployment was higher.

     

    We are due for a correction which is now underway. Sentiment has changed and folks are taking profits off of the table , this is normal &
    healthy. Now as we go forward , we will need to see those corp. profits continue the upward trend. I still see corp. earnings guidance to be OK, not great but good.

     

    The overall theme is still in play , where do u go for a decent yield on your money ?.. I believe the div growth investment strategy still works well in this environment.

     

    I'll go out on a limb and say the FED wont taper in '13 like everyone is predicting.. But even if I'm wrong the market is already starting to price that fact in, hence the correction. I also don't see any dramatic rise in rates from here. So, for patient investors we wait for the bargains to show up & selectively add at that time. 

     

    That is how I'm positioning myself at the moment.

     

    Happy Investing !
    5 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    ''I try not to let the daily reports either positive or negative affect my thinking''

     

    Words of wisdom.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    We have a few investment companies that have spent Millions of dollars WEEKLY already buying up foreclosures. Blackrock is one of them. Now what do you think an investment firm is going to do when a high % start to become late, or non payers of the rent?

     

    I think they will be dumping the properties over time. I relayed to you in a PM of a person I know who is a very rich investor who owns half of my next town over. His advice to me was to steer away from owning rentals as he is in his 70's, and is actually SELLING his rental properties. Said he is spending 4 days a week in court so financially it isn't worth the investment.

     

    Also said in 50 years of being a landlord the last 4 years have been the most trying of times for him !!! Some might feel this is an isolated case. I do not as I have heard it from a few investors I know who are running into the same issues.

     

    Now as Treasurer of a huge condo development we are having issues with our self owned rentals as well. Evicting someone ain't easy and the people know it!!
    5 Jun 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    I know the markets are months ahead however I am not so sure I agree with your assessment!
    5 Jun 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY and FEAR

     

    I agree with not letting daily noise affect my thinking and I did not know the S&P had records profits either. So thanks for that info.

     

    I also agree to sit and see if the ole sell in May and go away still applies !!
    5 Jun 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @ IT on rentals

     

    I stand by the same as before -- it depends on the individual situation. One market can be stagnant, with crummy renters & two towns over can be hot as you need.

     

    On foreclosures, it's close to 5 years now since the peek. Every experienced agent back then muttered under their breath that it would take 5-7 years to clear out the foreclosure inventory & get back to normal. For over a year now here where I am, most listings are regular sales. House prices are beginning to come up in much of the country. As rates increase it will slow again, but they are still historically low. People will buy. Most investors were using cash, so rates won't effect their purchases.

     

    It's not that their will "start" to be non-payers. The economy is better so more people can make their rent. That oodles better, but still better than 2008-9 rentals. The ones who weren't going to pay, weren't pay from the day they moved in. (I've even seen security deposit checks bounce.) Those investment firms knew what they were getting into, & have been dealing with it for 5 years now. It's not going to be a new dump onto the market.

     

    As for kicking people out, how hard depends on the local laws. In my area it's very prescribed, & you follow the dotted lines & get them out...or get the rent within 3 months. (You should NEVER have a house where you can't afford to float the rent for over a year plus do some repairs from your own money. You don't want to lose a whole house over that.) The hardest part of kicking someone out is emotional.. It takes a long time because renters beg, & landlords wait. If you file immediately on 1 or 2nd late payment, you'll start the process, & it's not long. And if they get the hint & pay... that works too. Much more problematic is the amount of damage low quality renters can do to a property. Picking well at the start goes a long way.

     

    At any given time, I hear of how "it's terrible, worse than it's ever been." It usually means they have one or two terrible tenants & are frustrated. Or they got into rentals as investors & didn't realize it can be like this. The key is patience when waiting for a good renter, & pricing properly, saves lots of hassles. ...deja vu... where did I hear that recently? Oh yes, advice about stock markets too, lol. (Waiting for good stock & good entry price).

     

    For your 70 old, are his the same houses he started with? Have the neighborhoods changed & he's not getting decent quality renters any more?

     

    Will equity build fast? Probably not like it used to, except in select markets. If you have close to positive cash flow, it doesn't really matter.
    5 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    A like it so much when people are not in agreement with me. :-)

     

    Debating is always instructive.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Question for more experienced traders.

     

    GM rejoined S&P500 a few days ago. I bought GM at $34.81 today. Then a recall announcement came out. I sold at $34.47, figuring I'd pick it back up after it finished going down.

     

    It hit $34.31 & climbed back up a bit. I bought at $ 34.41. Then it switched & went back down rapidly, $34.19 last I looked.

     

    What would you tend to do? Sell before it goes down more & take the loss. Hold & wait a few days or weeks for an upswing? Now it's at $34.12. This news is really tumbling it. I'm surprised. The recall is fairly small items, easy to fix, & get all those customers walking into the dealership. No real safety risk, & no injures or accidents from the issues.

     

    Wow was my timing bad, but that's life. I had no way to know an recall was going to be announced a 1/2 hour after I bought.

     

    ADD: Sigh, it found a support point at $34.12. Guess it will slowly, slowly find it's way back a bit... At least the lost is offset by my last gain.
    5 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Buying one of their cars might be a better deal. The government is selling or about to sell 30 million shares. http://cbsloc.al/139nUIY Autos are a tough business. Making too many and selling too few.
    5 Jun 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Just found this UAW is also selling 20 million shares ... http://on.mktw.net/13F...
    5 Jun 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I agree about the auto investments. My daughter got financed without a co-signer and she graduated 2 years ago from college with a teaching degree. As of now she is the Full time temp at her old high school. But is not employed by them as she does not receive benefits and has to be told daily if she is needed the next day.

     

    I walked out of the dealership when we were done and asked the salesperson why they were so lax on documents needed. His response was they are under guidelines to push as many vehicles out the door as possible. The one's that can't afford it are another departments responsibility to reposes.

     

    Now her boyfriend 2 years ago got approved for a construction vehicle that cost over 150k. HE WAS A START UP BUSINESS, and needed no co-signer either.

     

    So what's up with all of this? Another potential bubble forming?
    5 Jun 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    ''This all leads to my next question... what's your favorite books on investing? Or sites.''

     

    Good idea, curls! Would be cool if everyone could share.

     

    I'll start:

     

    The History of Money (Weatherford)
    A History of Gold and Money (Vilar)
    Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefèvre)
    Debunkery (Fisher)
    Markets Never Forget (Fisher)
    Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel)
    The Intelligent Investor (Graham)
    Trading for a Living (Elder)
    Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (Fisher)
    The Warren Buffet Way (Hagstrom)
    The Essays of Warren Buffet (Cunningham)
    Buffettology (Buffet, Clark)

     

    Sites:

     

    http://bit.ly/YmsykZ

     

    http://bit.ly/t3XFTe

     

    http://bit.ly/19IQyFY

     

    http://www.census.gov

     

    http://www.bls.gov

     

    http://bit.ly/11Z9Q8A

     

    http://1.usa.gov/ZTDg16

     

    http://321gold.com

     

    http://www.aaii.com

     

    http://stockgumshoe.com

     

    Ok that's it for now. Hope it helps. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @Krusty

     

    That's all? What will I do with all my spare time?
    5 Jun 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    :-)

     

    Regarding GM I think it will snap back to $35. It will be included in the S&P 100 and 500 as of tomorrow after the bell. So I see a buying pressure here.

     

    Follow your instinct.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    I thought David Stockmans new book was pretty good.

     

    "The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America"
    5 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    bd4uandu:

     

    I'll have a look to that one. Thanks for sharing.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Report back on all of those on Monday for us. Do you need that much time?

     

    Krusty won't like this but I read Mike Maloney's site daily

     

    http://bit.ly/SFfTrN I believe it is!
    5 Jun 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    BD4 & Krusty - thank you for the info!

     

    I can't tell how to predict those conflicting news items :). Thank you for providing them -- I only had part of the story.

     

    Got back home & it'd closed a lot more down, at $34.02 without my stop triggering

     

    ---BUT----

     

    on after hours market someone offered $34.20... so I got out, (.0167% loss.) I can't believe I got that much better a price when it's barely moving after hours.

     

    Krusty - I used your advice; I'd meant this as a short day trade, small quick gain. That failed. So I'm not changing plans to longer term just to try to recoupe. I may miss something big, but I hadn't researched that & it's not the deal I'm in here for.

     

    Overall, I expect more down than up days for a little while (days or few weeks)... so I don't want to be mostly out right now.

     

    Hope everyone else's day went more upside than mine!

     

    Congrats on picking up MUX, Krusty. It was down quit a bit today I noticed (though I missed it.)
    5 Jun 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Oh, I have stock in Evelyn Woods speed reading.. stock dividends come with your own instructor to you house. So I'll be done by tomorrow morning, ha :).
    5 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    You've followed your plan with GM and that was the right thing to do. You cannot survive as a trader if 1) you don't have a plan or 2) you have a plan but do not follow it. However, I still think that it will snap back to $35 quickly :-)

     

    I was lucky enough to get MUX at an average of $2.59. Now let's see what happens.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the confirmation / support Krusty!

     

    ...you know I'm going to be up early tomorrow looking at GM :). And very tempted to play again next two days. I'll be disappointed if it climbs while I'm out. But at least I'll sleep tonight with a limited loss!

     

    It's a lot of mixed messages on this stock...it will be interesting to see how they play out. It's the economic data on Friday that has me expecting the markets down... so that $35 might not materialize anytime soon, or anytime before the stock fundamentals change. Otherwise I'll completely agree that it'd bounce right back. Still possible, but I didn't want to be in the market on Fri for the overall downside risk. (Hey, if I don't know what I'm doing, at the least I can have some strong opinions :-). )

     

    I was anxious to have something to play, so I jumped in prematurely.

     

    On MUX, I understand the pluses very much. I don't know what has you thinking it's going higher soon? Hope it does! It was a great day to pick it up. Looking back over prices, you got around the low support dip.
    5 Jun 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @BD4, that sounds ominous ---! Also like it has some good depth on underlying issues.

     

    Anyone else have a book or site they like?? Or dislike??

     

    .....the "book that made me the investor that I am today"?
    5 Jun 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to add one here. You have probably never heard of this guy, but he got me into investing 35 years ago. His book is not about making fast millions, but it is about common sense investing for the long haul. His name is Roland Manarin and the book is "Manarin on Money". Lots of sage advice in the book.
    5 Jun 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    Alsobirdman - thanks! I'll look into that book. I'm planning on sticking around here for the long haul :).
    5 Jun 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Hi curls!

     

    Sleeping at night is always important. :-) So GM can wait...

     

    Regarding MUX, as you know it is my second trade since last week on this one so we are now good friends and we have our little secrets :-) eheheh No seriously, the chart is nice, the stock is solid despite the gold price. Seems pushing higner. I like what I see. I may me wrong big time...but you know what? I have a plan! ;-)

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ALSO

     

    Welcome to posting here. I am going to take a look at a few of these books and sites. Glad everyone is trying to educate one another.
    5 Jun 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I like to read Cliff notes!!.....But seriously..

     

    I will pass on a book that wasn't investment related but a good read none the less. ONE SECOND AFTER !! I could not put it down..

     

    Sometimes I just can't read all those experts telling me what the markets are going to do, and better yet . THE TIMING AS WELL !!
    5 Jun 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @ Krusty -- secrets eh?? Good, fun ones?

     

    Since I know only a little about gold & nothing about miners, I'm passing till I can understand how to read a chart & stock better or understand this one better. It just looks like wiggly lines to me. It sounds good, but if it goes awry, I'd be completely lost. so there's always something around the corner to focus on... (like that very large pile of reading I've got collected by now!)
    6 Jun 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    No disrespect here, but your a bulldog on grabbing information. I am impressed !!

     

    I am glad you are asking questions as others have the same ones to ask but wait and see if it comes up. I hope this comfortable environment is working out for all !!

     

    I am learning as well ! Like I have posted I have been a College and High School sports official for over 25 years before my surgery and I don't believe a game I officiated in did not have something NEW for me to learn. Same goes here for investing ..

     

    It is all up the individual to ask and grasp!!
    6 Jun 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Ok, I bought MUX again.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » COINCIDENCE?

     

    FED mentions tapering a few times within days and we get a selloff in the markets. Is this a coincidence??

     

    Appreciate thoughts from all...Learning here as well..

     

    PM guys, your thoughts on the metals response as well...
    5 Jun 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13277) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    No, it's neither a coincidence nor a surprise.

     

    Most folks have no idea how QE worked, where it went (is going) or what the actual consequences of stopping will be (not much), so, predictably, we get panicky behavior.

     

    Of course, consider how ironic it is that we get panicky sell-offs in debt-related issues, based on yield concerns, when the rest of the market is selling equities in fear of an economic slowdown and/or poor 2013Q2 corporate reports/forecasts. They can't both be right. If the economy is slowing, then all that selling of debt-related issues, based on rate fears, will prove entirely unfounded, and if corporate reports are boffo, the equity markets will take off. Choose one, or take a balanced approach.

     

    The selling hysteria of last week created a five-year low in the discounts of various muni ETF's versus their NAV's. For anybody who thinks we may experience a soft patch, these funds are beckoning. They appear to be extremely oversold.

     

    Metals? Other than the usual fear play, metals make utterly no sense if the economy is weakening and, make even less sense if the Fed really is tapering QE. (Actually, QE, again, is meaningless, either way, as it's not getting into the circulating money supply, so anybody buying gold on the basis of inflation protection is wasting their time.)
    5 Jun 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I appreciate the education. Not sure you can answer this but I know you have posted (PSEC) was a large holding of yours. So 2 questions. I have a newbie interested in knowing why the high dividend and I would like to know if you consider this a good entry point as well.

     

    I believe this is in the BDC category and some don't understand it. When you have time and want to field this I appreciate it. I noticed it wasn't on your preferred list you graciously supplied us !

     

    Thanks!
    5 Jun 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13277) | Send Message
     
    Here's a good overview of BDC's: http://bit.ly/UUqAHB

     

    PSEC is one of my holdings, but I always keep positions in the 2-5% range of total portfolio, so I would not classify it as a "large" holding. I presently hold eight BDC's, as I like to invest across a sector, rather than trying to cherry-pick individual winners.

     

    BDC's have been under pressure since mid-May, again suffering along with other classes under interest-rate apprehensions. I do not believe that rates will much affect the actual performance of BDC's. However, one should note that BDC's, as an investment class, are among the most volatile, so do not be surprised to see, when the markets are under pressure, that these issues decline as much or more than the markets.

     

    Personally, I think that various BDC names, including PSEC, represent fair values at present prices, but they may get even better.
    5 Jun 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    That's a great link for clearing this up.

     

    I'd think higher rates would help BDC since more people would need to go to them over straight bank loans, and/or they could charge a higher rate (by structuring their share of proceeds as higher %.) But then again, I'm not the general market. I'd expect the higher volatility comes from risk of small business ventures.

     

    If they are more volatile, I imagine then the place in a portfolio is over time for the dividends, & long enough for the price changes not to matter in your return.

     

    Your explanation really helped me understand what these are about. These would fit well in my portfolio -- when I feel like everything's come down more. I appreciate too your style of picking several throughout the sector.
    5 Jun 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Thanks for taking the time to post a great explanation and a plan as well..
    5 Jun 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Market may be attempting to "price in" the FED's future tapering.
    So no coincidence, also some need a reason to take profits and this is as good as any.

     

    I don't think the FED will taper this year, just my .02..
    5 Jun 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Fear&Greed:

     

    I agree with you. And all this tapering rhetoric is probably used in order to cool down the market and avoid another bubble. The Dow is (technically) overextended right now. The 14,000 (+/- 3%) level will be the worse case scenario IMHO.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I am opening up a new blog and if you find time could you post your history of investing and some tips you learned over the years as well.

     

    I always believed in a value approach. Read books on buying when people are running for the exits. But since I have tried to invest on my own over the last 10 years all I hear is buy and hold is dead.

     

    I personally don't agree with it, but with some of us with a limited budget and starting later in life any general tips? I will post the new blog below and if you feel like this is ok with you answering it can you post it on CHAPTER 5? Should be up in an hr !!

     

    If it is too personal I understand and sorry for asking your advice on it! Thanks...
    5 Jun 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13277) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    The education and experience one gains, much of it by osmosis, over many years of investing is very hard to distill down into a few "tips" or simple rules. However, I will think about this a bit and see if there are some words of wisdom I can offer that might prove of benefit to readers.
    5 Jun 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    That will be fine. Maybe some pitfalls one could avoid that you have scars from:)

     

    A sincere thanks!!
    5 Jun 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10911) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MOVING ALONG TO THE NEXT CHAPTER...WELCOME NEW POSTERS!!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Jun 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4982) | Send Message
     
    Krusty.

     

    S & P 1600 puts market down approx. 5%, lots of analysts have targeted that as next support.. We are almost there..

     

    I get the feeling we'll move below that , put a little scare into people.
    Your 10% just might do that..

     

    Then possibly stumble around during summer depending how next earnings season shapes up.. I like to monitor the "commentary " as the market sells off. Sometimes you can get a good read from that which signals the correction may be over.

     

    Ever go through a pull back , wait patiently ,have a list ready to buy , only to have the headlines , rhetoric, scare you off? make you rethink your strategy ?

     

    I find that is the time to stay with conviction and step back in.. but as you have said - have an exit plan at all times...
    5 Jun 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
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