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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 5..... 178 comments
    Jun 5, 2013 10:20 PM | about stocks: PLG, KKD, DBC, MORT, PFL, PHD, VVR, JRO, MTGE, NRF, RAS, PMM, MHI, NMA, KCAP, CHI, NCV, SAN, BBVA, VE, VGR, AWP, IGR, GPL, AUY, LYSCF, PSEC, PSLV, REMX, SLV, MUX, GGN, GNT, RAD, GDXJ, LMNX, NEM, ABX, AMZN, XOM, GE, IBM, EMR, ORCL, QCOM, CSCO, CHUY, MDBX, TSLA

    Where do commodities go from here, are stocks and bonds still sound investments? Oil. Etf's Physical metals..

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug, Chris, Focal Point, Tack, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (178)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I am opening up a new blog and if you find time could you post your history of investing and some tips you learned over the years as well.

     

    I always believed in a value approach. Read books on buying when people are running for the exits. But since I have tried to invest on my own over the last 10 years all I hear is buy and hold is dead.

     

    I personally don't agree with it, but with some of us with a limited budget and starting later in life any general tips? I will post the new blog below and if you feel like this is ok with you answering it can you post it on CHAPTER 5?

     

    If it is too personal I understand and sorry for asking your advice on it! Thanks...

     

    This question is also opened to all who don't mind sharing their story and philosophies...
    5 Jun 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Of course, there's too much to say; it could take a book, or two, but I have tried to distill some thoughts down to ten suggestions that I have discovered help promote success, over time:

     

    1) Pay attention to data, especially corporate and industry data, rather than punditry or news headlines. In the end, the data always wins. Tune out shows, like CNBC, and spend time observing reported data, not opinions, and doing research, instead.

     

    2) Look for value, not momentum. Often times, stocks that were $40 and are now $20 will in the future perform a lot better than stocks that were $20 and are now $40. Similarly, increase holdings in unloved sectors over currently favored ones.

     

    3) Learn how to balance risk, growth and income by utilizing different classes of investments: common stocks, preferred issues, debt, CEF's, ETF's, REIT's, BDC's, options, etc. Gradually adjust allocations as overall market and economic conditions change.

     

    4) Look for significant yields. Above-average yields make it easy to be patient and continue to hold securities that don't move as quickly as you might have predicted, or even have gone down after purchase. With stock with no yields, one can only make money by being correct about price and timing.

     

    5) Understand and use the enormous power of compounding. This cannot be emphasized too much. Many have complained that since 2000 the markets "haven't really gone anywhere." If one were holding portfolios with the following yields, these are the compound gains one would have achieved since 2000, even without a single dollar of capital appreciation:

     

    2% yield - 29%
    3% yield - 47%
    4% yield - 67%
    5% yield - 89%
    6% yield - 113%
    7% yield - 141%
    8% yield - 180%

     

    6) Don't "cherry-pick" and don't over-allocate to single issues. It's much better to find an undervalued sector and place a spread of purchases across several names than it is to try to guess the top performer and/or allocate too much to a single issue. Maintain an inviolate rule not to allocate more than 5% of one's portfolio to any single name. Instead, average about 2.5% per holding. This will prevent undue pain from any "blow-ups," and, rest assured, there will be blow-ups in one's investing life.

     

    7) Do not engage in attempts to time the market by jumping "all in" or "all out." Not only is this impossible to do with any consistent success. It will result in constant anxiety, trying to guess when to buy or sell and often lead to terrible, emotion-laden decisions. Worse, it will forego much of the most powerful force working for investors, i.e, the compounding and reinvestment of yield. That doesn't mean "buy and hold" forever, either. Instead, gradually alter allocations among stocks, preferreds, and debt, as well as sectors, as conditions change and as individual issues reach target levels. The turtle will beat the hare virtually always.

     

    8) Set intended exit targets for investments and act. Often, the buying wise choices can be undone by poor selling choices, or no selling plan. When that undervalued, unloved security/sector one had purchased becomes fairly or overvalued, especially if yields have fallen too low, harvest the gains and redeploy the capital to a new, better-yielding, unloved sector/or issue.

     

    9) Be very cautious in the use of stops. More often than not, stops cost investors money, rather than making them money or preventing losses. When one buys undervalued investments, it's quite possible that they may languish a while, or even decline somewhat. It's not helpful, especially if they offer attractive dividend yields, to get stopped out at short-term losses. And, understand that market makers look for standing sell orders and can and do momentarily manipulate prices to snatch up one's shares, if they think they can sell them shortly for a profit. That stop is merely a worm on the hook for a market maker. If a stock declines, examine why carefully, then if the premise for investing remains valid, add a few more shares, instead of selling. Yield will be better, average prices lower and future gains higher, instead of reaping a loss. The best time to use a stop is if one is holding an issue with large unrealized gains and is fully willing to be stopped out if the issue begins to fall.

     

    10) Lastly, remain calm. Think, don't overreact. Be patient. Be measured in one's actions. "Moderation in all things," as the saying goes. Remember, all periods of economic/market negativity are temporary. Also, remember, one should be investing, not in "nations," but in corporations, as providers of needed goods and services. Life, economies, markets, they're all perpetual. Believe in the future because there assuredly will be one. The needs and wants of global societies are not going away; they're destined to get ever larger.

     

    Make it all work for one's success, as an investor.
    6 Jun 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I sincerely want to thank you for taking the time to organize your thoughts and then type them as well. This is something I believe people read in books but when it is this concise it makes sense!

     

    Again, I KNOW some people will enjoy and learn from this !
    6 Jun 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack & F&G

     

    Your write up is really invaluable.

     

    Also the comments back & forth with F&G, both added more good pieces.

     

    Thank you.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    You know, you could have posted this summary last year and saved me many, many hours of digging through your commentary to get ideas. :)
    7 Jun 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    Thanks for this interesting write up!

     

    Krustyman
    7 Jun 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    We aim to cut through all that red tape. Some posts are priceless!!

     

    Welcome..
    7 Jun 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Thanks. I'm not sure as to what you're trying to do with your instablog, but from what I've read so far it seems to have evolved into sub-forum for people to throw different ideas around. That I can dig on and will bookmark your profile so I can keep up.

     

    I'm writing an instablog about what I'm buying with each paycheck. I have happily stolen ideas from Tack, Douglas Albo, and Monty Spivak. I think that earning interest, dividends, and distributions and compounding them over 20 + years will pay off.

     

    I'm just a guy who made dumb mistakes over the last twelve years or so and now make the average income in this county and will have to play catch-up if I want to be able to retire. I am starting over from scratch and my portfolio is pathetic. That was reinforced when I jokingly challenged another contributer this week that I might do better - he's got a lot more money than I do and is way ahead. Kind of like a kick in the crotch.

     

    The good news is that I've gotten three pay raises this year and simultaneously managed to have my hours cut to where I'm working 26 weeks out of the year for the same money I was last year. And I've paid down some debt to the point where I can contribute a decent amount to investing.

     

    Anywho, thanks for creating what appears to be a forum for learning!
    7 Jun 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    You nailed what I am trying to accomplish. People like you WILL benefit because we have all sorts of experts posting and newbies asking questions and then reading responses , and deciding what direction is best for them.

     

    If you take the time to read the introduction you will get a broad overview. Everyone needs to be pleasant, no question is considered stupid, and Authors of other articles will stop in and participate.

     

    So if you have any specific questions just post them and hopefully a few people will supply you with their thoughts. Always do you own homework. But I have shaped my investment portfolio reading quite a few articles over the years. Now I want a ONE STOP place where ALL are comfortable.

     

    So when you are up to it fire away !! If you LIKE what someone posts then hit the LIKE button. It helps for sure..
    7 Jun 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Tack, That is impressive info. Especially on the compounding yields. Thanks for sharing that with us.
    12 Jun 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRADEWIN

     

    Welcome ! Yes TACK has had some impressive posts for us so far. Glad he stops in and brings his thoughts with him..
    12 Jun 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    I think it's truly valuable information and advice. This looks like a great blog Interesting Times. Thanks for starting it. And good fortune to you.
    12 Jun 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRADE

     

    Thanks, but I always say the posters make it worth doing. I am learning as well and feel blessed to have all sorts of people who really want to help. Even if they disagree they bring their reasons and check their ego's at the door.

     

    I hope you stick around and throw out some comments or questions as well. Plus passing the word on other sites will help as this is a blog, not an article. So word of mouth is the only advertisement we can muster up !
    12 Jun 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tradewin!

     

    Nice to see you. I've saved Tack's summary - lots of good ground rules in it. Especially the compounding.

     

    If you want to peek in on the running conversation from time to time, it's up to chapter 7 now & going to 8.

     

    Are there any areas you're exploring at the moment & trying to learn in?
    12 Jun 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Hey, easy there on Chapter 8...Maybe well let RIN get annoyed and let it take 10 minutes to load up to see my jokes!!
    12 Jun 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Good to hear from you Curls. I'm always exploring and always always learning. Got a couple of shares of PSEC in my Roth. Bought last week. They pay monthly. Or supposed to. The Roth is still the best game in town. Seems to keep me making more rational decisions with my street account. Any excess, I kick it over to the Roth as a contribution. I like this instablog. Safe trading to you.
    12 Jun 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRADE

     

    Chapter 7 has a ton of info on (PSEC). Some of us own it and you might want to take a look. Also consider following me as I usually throw some stuff up on stocktalk to alert people of topics.
    12 Jun 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @Tradewin -- I was going to say... but IT beat me too it... he has a good deal of (PSEC) so there's been lots of discussion about it. Plus some excellent postings by Fear & Greed about the whole BDC "sector." He lists a bunch & also what the this type of business's "story" is - risks, pros...

     

    Aren't Roth's great? Got to love that tax free growth.

     

    Japan is down 6%, @BD4's been posting. Wonder what it will do to tomorrow's trading? Safe trading to you too!
    12 Jun 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Thought the carbon monoxide into your window would make you sleepy. Guess it did not work. You sitting typing with a gas mask on with a miners lighted hat?
    12 Jun 2013, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Ditto. I do not believe buy and hold is dead.

     

    Krustyman
    5 Jun 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    Your advice is some of the best that is out there,,

     

    The comments on compounding on yield should open the eyes of a lot of people.

     

    The only difference for me is that I don't use "stops" , ever .. Just my preference.

     

    I also use covered call writing to enhance yield on a portion of my portfolio.
    That's not for everybody , but it has served me well..

     

    Thanks
    6 Jun 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Pretty much, I don't use stops either, but wanted to suggest when they might be used.

     

    I rarely write covered calls, either, unless the issue for which I am considering writing the call meets two criteria: 1) it has risen in price to the point where the yield has fallen to at or near my lower bound, so I am willing to be called out at the higher price, and 2) the option date is shorter than the next ex-dividend date; otherwise, it's common to get called away before maturity and lose the dividend, too.

     

    More often, I find myself selling OTM puts on issues I like to hold and to which I am willing to add. If the price stays above my strike, I pocket the premium; if it falls below my strike, I buy the shares at a discount and pocket the premium.
    6 Jun 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks

     

    I have received a few PM'S asking if those who have been investing for a while can list maybe their BEST 5 SYMBOLS for the buy and hold scenario.

     

    If anyone chooses to do so can we try to maybe lists one's that pay a decent dividend as well? If not I just thought that income stream might be helpful.

     

    But any option is open. Just bracket the symbols so those folks interested can click on it !

     

    Thanks..
    5 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    My buy and hold
    (MO) (PM) (TNH) (COP) (GIS) (KMP) (GGN) (MDLZ) (MUX)
    6 Jun 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    If I may suggest something. Why not encouraging the people that are sending you PMs to ask their questions directly here? Would be nice to interact with them.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    6 Jun 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    I have been doing that and I think a few have already started. As you know when you post in an article we have seen *fights* break out.

     

    I know because I have started a few..lol.. But once some get comfortable with this format I HOPE they join in as well. Plus I kindly ask if you post on another article can you maybe comment on THAT site if you like THIS and even post the link.

     

    My goal is to learn from all of you. I believe others feel the same way. NEVER is a question a dumb one...NEVER!
    6 Jun 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin

     

    Thanks for sharing. I see you've a (MUX) fan too.

     

    My buy & holds have been various Vanguard index funds. (VYM) & (VXF) & (VBR) were more interesting.
    6 Jun 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Is this why you haven't posted much this week?

     

    http://huff.to/127sevU

     

    Some have all the luck ! Wonder if they found fiat money would this story have made headlines.. Just sayin folks!!
    7 Jun 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    That's funny!! no I am not that lucky....maybe I will send my Roman legions with metal detectors to bring back the empire and pay the legions with coins.......being busy with high school matters for my son
    7 Jun 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    I have a question IT. Concerning Royal Dutch Shell (preferred) The divs. from the B get reinvested automatically into class A shares. The tax on the B is 15%. The tax on the A is 28%. I don't own either, but is there a way to divert the reinvestments to go toward purchasing the class B instead?
    12 Jun 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRADE

     

    Find FEAR AND GREAD. He is our Financial advisor and might know...

     

    I would pose that question on Chapter 7 !! Someone else might know as well. I don't. Sorry...
    12 Jun 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now for my political side. If this is true who else is annoyed???

     

    Verizon had to hand over private phone call records? Seriously?

     

    http://tcrn.ch/12tIf0E
    5 Jun 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    From the days of McCarthyism... this is not a good thing to have "lying around."
    6 Jun 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    That article isn't about politics, it is more about a government going out of control. Most of the government isn't elected or even appointed by elected officials.
    5 Jun 2013, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » STILL

     

    Sometimes I can't believe what I read or hear. Now Rice gets appointed today as well. Really ? Is the POTUS trying to make a point here?

     

    Probably should not have posted this...oops
    5 Jun 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Rice is another good soldier being rewarded for sticking with the story. Another way to look at it, she is handy to throw under the bus (getting pretty crowded under there). :-)
    6 Jun 2013, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » STILL

     

    You have known me for a while now. I am not even going to post what is in my head right now !!

     

    NOTHING will surprise me anymore. Just when you think you have seen it all......( here I go )
    6 Jun 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @STILL

     

    This video also shows others concerns where our Govt. are heading and they don't like it!

     

    http://bit.ly/ZTUwd4
    6 Jun 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    From F&G :)

     

    ------

     

    S & P 1600 puts market down approx. 5%, lots of analysts have targeted that as next support.. We are almost there..

     

    I get the feeling we'll move below that , put a little scare into people.
    Your 10% just might do that..

     

    Then possibly stumble around during summer depending how next earnings season shapes up.. I like to monitor the "commentary " as the market sells off. Sometimes you can get a good read from that which signals the correction may be over.

     

    Ever go through a pull back , wait patiently ,have a list ready to buy , only to have the headlines , rhetoric, scare you off? make you rethink your strategy ?

     

    I find that is the time to stay with conviction and step back in.. but as you have said - have an exit plan at all times...
    -------

     

    That feels right to me from everything I've been reading. You've laid it out so clearly. What commentary do you monitor (where do you find it)?

     

    On getting scared off... I'll have to see when I get there.

     

    I've noticed, the rhetoric can be so influential. Though now that I've watched the media's timing it's pretty funny. The markets move, there's a lag, then they figure out what to say to match it. But boy are they enthusiastic about their claims once they figure out which way to go.
    6 Jun 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    I use CNBC and sometimes Bloomberg , here on SA, & other financial types. I'll listen over a period of time , NOT TO FOLLOW what they are promoting but rather to get a "feel" on the commentary. Its a contrary approach..

     

    An example : if you remember back in late fall last year, fiscal cliff, sequestration, tax hikes all over the news.. Over & over pounding the drum on those issues. Its what is known and referred to as "noise" .

     

    All the while a lot of companies were telling a different story.

     

    I was fortunate , bought some quality names , and rode them during this rally. I also deploy this strategy with individual names , as Tack mentioned a $40 stock that is now $20 may present a better value as long as you do your due diligence..
    As my "tag" implies I try to take advantage of "fear" Selling and look to sell when I see excessive "greed"
    6 Jun 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    So... now I know what your name means! I did figure it was a play on the themes so common in the market-world.

     

    ...so listening for what's effecting everyone, while making decisions based on the real information. Makes sense...

     

    It helps too, to know the experienced traders tend not to use stops. I've guessing they run into selling out at the wrong moments.
    6 Jun 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Plus those flash crashes we discussed could ruin you financially at the wrong time. I don't use stops when I was trading or buy for the long term either.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How about DOW 14k ???

     

    Curls, your catching on real quick about those talking heads for sure!!
    6 Jun 2013, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (2409) | Send Message
     
    I've been thinking about a general thought about the economy, Presidential cycles and recessions. A search on this relationship led me to this article from 1989:

     

    http://nyti.ms/186qMx8

     

    "
    The other two recessions began in the fourth year of a term and the incumbent party promptly lost the White House. Slump Early, Then Rebound"

     

    Since 1989, we've had 1991, 2001, and 2009. Essentially that leave us with this statement

     

    Of the 14 recessions since the days of Calvin Coolidge, no fewer than 12 began in the first year of a new President.

     

    Since we know that a taper or end of printing will lead to a massive contraction, no sitting president would allow this to happen until the end of his term. I expect no taper until mid 2015, I expect a recession/depression in 2016.

     

    Until then, I will stay in equities, book profits and secure them in Physical. When 2015 hits, I plan to be in cash, not sure what currencies, but it will be cash.
    6 Jun 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link, fishfryer.

     

    Krustyman
    6 Jun 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (2409) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, incomplete quote
    "Of the 11 recessions since the days of Calvin Coolidge, no fewer than 9 began in the first year of a new President. The other two recessions began in the fourth year of a term and the incumbent party promptly lost the White House. Slump Early, Then Rebound"
    6 Jun 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Fishfryer

     

    That info is fascinating. I've noticed really big crash days or couple days come when there's significant & usually fairly new, underlying financial issues. There's often a delay after what seemed like troubling times that were filled with more confidence, then thing glitching happens. It would make sense to me if the political timing, has some effect on these timings.

     

    Like you (before seeing your article), I've been picturing the fallout & actual downslide from the current economic issues... to not happen for a year or two. After QE is over & everyone's sided relief, but while it's obvious there's been some effect around the world's finances that's not yet been dealt with. You're article adds another dimension to my gut sense that the actual fallout will be delayed from now. Though, I suspect QE will start ending sooner & the financial gaming will be of some other nature to keep it all afloat for a while.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Let me retype this sentence so it's less garbled:

     

    " There's often a delay after what seemed like troubling times that were filled with more confidence, then thing glitching happens."

     

    It seems like, after troubling times there's a delay that leads to a time filled with more confidence... then the bigger glitching happens.

     

    Also "sided relief" is "sighed relief"
    6 Jun 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FISH

     

    Very interesting observation. Looking for the responses to this!

     

    Now I just heard a report on Fox Business with reporter Charlie Gasperino stating he has spoken to Jamie Dimone from JPM and he stated that if the FED stopped buying Bonds AND TAPERING STARTS we will have "HELL TO PAY"

     

    So does the FED start tapering or not ? If they do will the markets get hit that bad?

     

    Thoughts !!
    6 Jun 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Hebba Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (1308) | Send Message
     
    All this Fed tapering talk is just talk - at this point there can be no tapering but the Fed needs the markets to think that it is an option. The Fed needs to think about the global consequences of its decision - even if the US economy recovers, if the rest of the world is mired in a slump, then Fed tapering would cause interest rates across the world to rise.

     

    What I thought was interesting today was the huge drop in the USD - is this just a JPY-USD pair trade or was something else going on here. Something to monitor...
    6 Jun 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (2409) | Send Message
     
    Hell to Pay is an understatement. QE won't end, it'll always have to be at least the trade deficit ($40b/month) plus some sort of sector push ($45b/month MBS). When housing is fully inflated or overinflated they will move to another sector like school loan forgiveness or shovel ready infrastructure jobs or twist 3.

     

    We all know this will fail eventually, but hopefully it will be a long time from now.
    6 Jun 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I'm inclined to take Bernake at his word. He's not pleased with reaching the end of QE effectiveness without achieving what he wanted. It's time to taper down the program. There's no way they want to create a crisis doing that, so they'll be conservative & wait till the economy as reflected in the numbers, looks like it will handle it.

     

    I don't think the economy is there. I doubt BB & Fed is oblivious to how it's going. So, tapering won't be immediately. Meanwhile, by talking about it, the market does it shock thing, & starts adjusting for it, so they can start to move on tapering when they are ready.

     

    So if things seem stable even if not ideal economically, but Sept, they'll start the first very minor tapering. It'll be a sneeze in a thunder storm. If they don't see stability, or there's political pressure, (or internal bribing), it'll be re-visited early next year.

     

    I'm kind of repeating the obvious, but I think in this case the obvious is what applies. I think he said what he meant, & everyone in the media just pulled it apart looking for what they wanted. The mixed view is exactly how he sees things, & when to begin tapering hasn't been decided by the deciders yet. But they're anxious to get to it, as soon as possible without bringing down the world's economies.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Let's not forget that former Fed chairman Volcker mentioned something before Dimon recently about wishing good luck to BB; I don't know but I don't like any of this...maybe something is in works or just posturing since BB leaving
    7 Jun 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    fish

     

    I agree with you about what the Fed is buying but I would add about the Fed buying up also T bonds that China, Russia, ME , or even Japan would sell
    7 Jun 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So if don't have tapering then both stocks and metals continue to climb I assume. If not appreciate comments on this as well..
    6 Jun 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2228) | Send Message
     
    Hello IT,

     

    Great forum with a lot of excellent discussion. I think you are correct that if we don't have tapering that stocks and metals SHOULD continue to climb, but this has been a disconnected relationship dating back to late January where stocks have risen while metals including the PMs have taken a beating. And testing the logic of the stock market's response to today's NFP, if 175k jobs was the "just right" scenario of enough jobs to support continued growth but not enough jobs to induce the Fed to start tapering, then the PMs should have also rallied on this news as well. Instead, they were taken out to the woodshed. The disconnects across markets are extraordinary right now.

     

    Thanks again IT. I appreciate the discussion forum.
    7 Jun 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ERIC

     

    Thanks for stopping in. Some of us read Eric's articles and I am posting his recent one which I feel all should read and comment on. He is one of a few who actually ANSWERS your posts.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    If we can help him out by posting on his articles it would be appreciated by him for sure!
    7 Jun 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    From here... I went over to check Eric's out a few days ago, & set myself to follow. ...I really appreciate your insights Eric!
    7 Jun 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2228) | Send Message
     
    Thanks IT & curls-100. I really appreciate it!
    10 Jun 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Eric

     

    Your insight is extremely helpful to all of us! Thanks..
    10 Jun 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thursday, June 6, 9:35 AM ET
    An interesting note on gold (GLD) from JPMorgan notes the curious disconnect between the futures and physical markets - where the price is at a record premia to spot in China and India, and the U.S. mint can't keep up with demand. In good news for miners (GDX) trying to control costs, reports from Australia speak of mining equipment makers offering discounts and lead times for trucks falling from 2 years to 2 weeks.

     

    I think the TBTF guys are setting up to go long on the PM'S !!!
    6 Jun 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Any thoughts from the Rare Earths investors on this article?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    6 Jun 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    In chapter 4 of this blog, you said you're keeping PM for insurance. If it's not about money, & it's not excessive in your portfolio, then I'd hang onto it. The immediate financial crisis of 2007-8 is over, but the world always has room for another crisis. Just takes one unexpected geo-political event. I've got family that paid guards brides to get to safety...and everything was fine the few years before. I'm sure most of us have someone in our family tree that did.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Nope, it is for insurance. The more I read daily about what this Patriot act seems to *allow* our POTUS to do the more insecure I feel.

     

    Plus I might have been wrong, but once QE started I felt one day the metals would be worth more. In fact I am way above my breakeven. So I just keep it for security, or pass it down to my daughter if I am wrong.

     

    But either way with the dollar depreciation happening I think I made the right choice. Time will tell !!
    6 Jun 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    GM prices shares at $34.41 ... http://reut.rs/17svXGK
    6 Jun 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @Bd4
    Yep, I got out at 34.20 after hours last night. So strange I thought, that someone would bid that much when the close was only $34.02. I missed chance to sell today at $34.40ish but oh well.

     

    After the announcement tonight, there wasn't much action happening at all. I'm expecting tomorrow some funds will buy in for the S&P500, but the flood of shares will keep it all about the same or drive it down a little.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BD4

     

    I wonder why the GOVT. is selling those shares now at a loss? Think they know something?

     

    Just sayin...
    7 Jun 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Question:

     

    What did the run up at the end of the day mean? The report data was earlier in the day, so that wasn't it directly.

     

    What does it imply will happen tomorrow with the big report coming out? If the report is good economic news, will the markets get happy? Or sad over QE possible ending? Vice versa, if the news is poor, will the markets get sad... or happy?

     

    Any speculations?

     

    Also
    There was a dip to buy into, but this was a lot of last minute enthusiasm. How much of these extreme last minute slides up & down are from the bigger firms & their computers? Or shorts or longs trying to do their thing before an expected change?
    6 Jun 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Watching FBN late today the traders were in a frenzy at the close. Now I don't know if they were betting on bad news tomorrow with the jobs number or good news!!

     

    Are they betting on QE NOT STOPPING, or if the number is bad then they expect the QE'S to continue. Now I know TACK feels this has nothing to do with the markets. But the traders do...

     

    So to answer your question from what I heard the noise was just confusion...Kinda funny but scary at the same time!!
    6 Jun 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Not exactly.

     

    I think QE had very little influence on the economy at this stage and that, therefore, it's cessation will have very little fundamental impact on the economy or markets, in the end. However, that doesn't preclude just the kind of fear and volatile trading we've been seeing. It's the Y2K effect, all over again.
    6 Jun 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Thanks for clearing up your position..
    6 Jun 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    My take on yesterdays late day buying and reversal from the lows was based on the "technicals" .. Most analysts had 1600 on the S & P targeted as a point to start deploying funds.. and had their "Buy " programs in place to do so.. It also coincided with the S& P 50 day MA. a decent level of support, and for the time being that point has held. Don't underestimate the age of electronic trading and the computer generated buy and sell programs around these technical points. They exacerbate these moves both up & down..

     

    Also , I would speculate that short sellers came in after they saw the S & P temporarily violated the 1600 level as we traded down to 1598. That gave them the signal that the market may deteriorate further.. When this didn't happen and they got caught short they waited until end of day , then had to buy back to cover their positions..

     

    Just another day in market land -- LOL

     

    Anyway its a testament to how difficult life it can be as a short term trader..

     

    Or we could just simply say the market went down then the market went up -- LOL Who knows ?

     

    7 Jun 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "I think QE had very little influence on the economy at this stage and that"

     

    Increases in technology make an economy grow. Increases in technology come from incentives to learn. The natural state of any economy is to continually grow. What creates the ups and downs is the introduction and removal of coercion into the economy.

     

    Gov is basically coercion, so attempting to use gov to grow the economy is introducing coercion into the market. The false assumption that gov must be compulsory, has made gov throughout history an agent of theft. Theft is what causes one group to inflate and another group to deflate, and this is what has caused the business cycle throughout history.

     

    Major crashes in asset values throughout history can be traced back to attempts by people to use compulsory gov to make the economy grow. All that happens, is the gov compels people to consume their savings, current consumption increases as a result, asset values are inflated, and since technology didn't change enough to justify that increased consumption, nature forces a correction. We have come to interpret this as the business cycle, and since people in gov never take responsibility for their mistakes, they have convinced people its the free markets causing the booms and busts and not the gov coercive policies transferring wealth and inflating asset values.

     

    So its true that QE doesn't grow the economy, but it does affect asset prices because it is gov coercion being used to issue notes without regard to what the real rate of note creation should be. So while extra notes provide no help in helping us grow food faster and cheaper, it does create additional notes that can be used to bid up asset prices.

     

    When you look at gov policy through history, you will see that when note creation has been a net positive, asset prices go up, and when note creation switches to a net negative, asset prices go down. Since people in gov love to live under the delusion of the mental superiority, they believe they must manage the economy. Thus they believe (like the folks at the Fed Res) they must forever be fiddling with the hot and cold valves. The result is the boom and bust cycle we have been told is the business cycle caused by free markets. The reality is just the opposite.

     

    So, QE is just another gov consumption subsidy, and at some point BB or Yellen will believe they must fiddle with the hot and cold, and without major regulatory relief (which we will never get), when they fiddle with the cold, we will get net Fed Note destruction, and without those notes to bid up asset prices, asset prices will fall. They will react (panic yet again), by switching off the cold and turning the hot back on, and asset prices will rise again.

     

    If you understand this pattern, you can begin to look for the signals of this misguided policy, and find ways to protect yourself from the boom and bust cycle that the misuse of gov coercion can create.
    7 Jun 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ JHOOPER

     

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us. Nice to hear from you again!! Don't be a stranger..,,
    7 Jun 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    Hoop:

     

    You've made it clear in many posts that you're not a fan of Governmental attempts to modulate the economy. I'm not a huge fan, myself, but I have learned to live with reality and play the cards that are on the table.

     

    I would offer one rejoinder, however, to your attribution of boom-and-bust cycles to clumsy government manipulation. There have been booms and busts throughout history, and occasioned back in times when governments, here or elsewhere, were doing precious little to manage or intervene in economies. The reason these cycles occur isn't government inspired; it's because human nature is prone to greed and fear, all by itself, completely unabetted by governments.

     

    Unless we find a way to repeal human nature (good luck), we'll always have manias and panics.
    7 Jun 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "but I have learned to live with reality and play the cards that are on the table."

     

    And that's the point of my post. I would love to change it, and hope to someday see no compulsory gov, but I doubt I will ever see it in my lifetime. So I have learned to accept that it is going to happen, and have decided to find ways to use it to my advantage.

     

    I find no examples in history where gov coercion (when its not being used for its proper role) hasn't distorted markets and caused booms and busts, and I find no examples in history of a free market on a national or global scale. Using reason and logic, we could deduce that a purely free market would have no booms and busts. Particular industries would go away, but others would concomintantly replace them. As such, you would have no widespread reversals of forture for 65% or more of the markets.

     

    So, indeed, my point is that BB, who is operating under a failed assumption of what he is really doing, is apt to make another mistake like he did in 2006 when he inverted the yield curve and brought on the collapse of real estate assets and then equities, which he did by engaging in net Fed note destruction.

     

    "There have been booms and busts throughout history, and occasioned back in times when governments, here or elsewhere, were doing precious little to manage or intervene in economies."

     

    Such as? Tulips were precipated by loose credit policies pushed by the Dutch gov. The panics in the 1800s had govs printing for wars. 1873 you had the banking acts of the 1860s creating inflation. 1893 you had railroad subsidies causing asset inflation. 1907 was Gage and Shaw attempting to do QE with the US treas from 1901 to 1907. 1920 was the end of the inflation of WWI met by maginal income tax rates of 80% and raising the FF rate by the Fed. 1929 was after Strong had died, and the FF rate was raised in the fall of 29 to help the British with the pound. 36-37 you had FDR destroying Fed notes by raising income taxes (on people making over $260k a year - sound familiar). All the way up to 2006 when BB inverted the yield curve and popped the real estate bubble caused by subsidies for real estate.

     

    We cannot leave out the compulsory power of gov to transfer wealth and cause asset inflation out of our analysis, and as we have never seen a period in history of a truly free market (a market free of coercion), we have no examples of what would happen on a wide scale. What we do have is a long history of gov intervention at some level on some scale, and the result is coerced capital consumption that leads to asset inflation that nature eventually corrects. So we have to leave that in our analysis, at least to realize that the boom and bust should panic us into making hasty decisions.

     

    My goal is to get my fellow freedom loving souls to recognize this pattern so they too can utilize it.
    7 Jun 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    My take on yesterdays price action and the intraday reversal is that it revolved around the "technicals" . S & P 1600 had been targeted by a lot of analysts as a support area. It is also happened to be the 50 day MA for the index. Computer Buy programs were then set off at that level.. When we traded down to 1598 , some thought we could fall further and the "shorts' came in. However when the market reversed, the shorts were caught and they added to the buying frenzy in the last few minutes of trading to close & cover their positions .. Don't underestimate the algorithms and computer "buy and sell" programs that take place especially around these types of support or resistance areas.

     

    It s a testament to the difficulty the short term trader has to deal with.
    
    7 Jun 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    A central bank is a consumption subsidy the same way Medicare is a consumption subsidy. They enter the market in different ways, but their effect is the same. They both rely on the gov's power of coercion to distort the equilibrium created based on voluntary demand and supply and that results in capital erosion. On a balance sheet, when capital shrinks, assets shrink. In other words the balance sheet recedes and we call this situation a recession.

     

    However, our technology improves all the time even with the gov coercive distortions (it could improve even more without the distortions) so as long as the gov distortions don't get too far away from our ability to pay for the distortions, the inflated asset prices can be sustained. (This is actually known as the Tyrants Paradox)

     

    Here's one way it could work out. Gov distortions via Obamacare, Dodd Frank, the progressive income tax becoming even more progressive, etc could slowly outpace our ability to pay for those distortions. In which case a pullback in the S&P to 1400 might be countermanded by increased consumption subsidies from the Fed and we get back to 1675 or 1700, but it doesn't last and we settle back to 1400. This cycle continues and you find yourself in a slow death spiral, where the fiscal distortions slightly overwhelm the monetary distortions and the result is the growth of technology can't pay for either of them.

     

    Another scenario is where technology grows slightly faster than the distortions, and then if a pullback occurs to 1400, the Fed can get it back to 1500 and it keeps going to 1700 or higher.

     

    We can also get a scenario where they equal each other and we get a pullback to 1450 and the Fed gets it back to 1550. Then it settles back to 1500 and we stay that way for several years (2013 so far is a good example of this).

     

    Now the really, really hard part is determining which scenario we are facing. Economic data is one way to tell. If the charts are all slowly trending down, and we are seeing more and more fiscal distortions like income taxes doubling, then we can have confidence the trend will keep going down.

     

    My view of the charts is malaise. Good data is constantly being offset by bad data. The charts are only slightly trending up, but the uptrend is very small. This should continue through 2013. 2014 is when things are scheduled to change. So pullbacks in 2013, I think can be repaired by the Fed. So in that case you would buy the dips.

     

    2014 is really going to be tough to tell. If 2014 winds up with the slow death spiral, then in theory you would want to liquidate equities and move to bonds. Thus when risk-off appears and you bought bonds at the peak rates before the risk-off flight to quality appears, then those higher yields will give you nice gains on the downturn. The other strategy would be to just focus on the equity winners, which will be the ones that can crawl to the top of the heap created by regulations and ones that can keep paying nice dividends even though their stock prices are falling due to the overall risk-off trade occurring.

     

    As I said, recognizing the landscape is critical. We have to watch the news for large macro changes, like Obamacare, Dodd Frank, QE, and then watch the economic data to see if technology is growing faster than the gov distortions can put the brakes on it.

     

    In the end, the natural state of the economy is to grow. Gov policies can put the brakes on this, and even cause the economy to settle down into a slow erosion (N Korea and Cuba are an example and Japan from 1650 to 1850 is another). The idea of a drastic collapse into a Road Warrior scenario is overblown. Typically what you get is a slow erosion into a long-term stagnant economy. The trick is to realize what it takes to produce that, and then see if your current environment is leading to that. That's how you avoid a panic with your own funds, and thus avoid having your wealth transferred away by stealth taxes.
    7 Jun 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    hooper

     

    I agree on scenarios but for how long and how far more can the premiums on 10 years, 20 years, or 30 years bonds can theoretically keep on rising? as for me, no way I am going to pay $20,000 for a $10,000 note with negative real returns and the biggest ever bubble; in my humble opinion the weapons of mass destructions derivatives lie IRS, CDS, and mortgages will go off first; that's why I don't think the QEs will ever go away; my scenario is that all depends on the strength of the US$ with many people saying that it will go up to 91-100, which I doubt since nothing has been fixed; my scenario is that Japan will be first, then Europe, and lastly US to go down.
    7 Jun 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    Confusion? Interesting. So tomorrow's report is considered a big deal. If they're buying in, then they're expecting an upside reaction & want shares before that. ...but makes no sense; they could buy earlier in the week.

     

    What time does the report come out?
    6 Jun 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    FUNNY THING.....Well we get to know at 8.30am....BUT those reporting the numbers know before that. Now add those who prepared the numbers knew today !!

     

    You read into what I just wrote what you think..
    6 Jun 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Unemployment is basically the same. Ticked up to 7.6% New jobs up 5k over estimate. I don't see anything earth shattering with these numbers.

     

    Does anyone else?
    7 Jun 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Unemployment ticked up a bit, job gains were minimal. My guess is this will be interpreted as good since it will mean continued QE.

     

    We are in a crazy world where bad economic news is good for the market since it signifies continued QE and good economic news is bad for the market as it suggests dialing down QE.

     

    Just goes to show that when QE is finally dialed down the markets will be toast. Burnt toast.
    QE is the glue holding it all together until it doesn't work anymore.
    Then, watch out belowwwww...
    7 Jun 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    Playing games with unemployment numbers again- And playing games with people's intelligence- still.

     

    Real rate is north of 13%-

     

    Labor participation rate is at the lowest rate it has been since 1979 at 63.4%, and getting LOWER every month

     

    That means millions of workers have given up looking for work and millions more are working part-time or in jobs at much less than their skill level.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/pSpjQo

     

    Windwood Trader
    7 Jun 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    Been yelling that same thought for some time yet it seems not to effect the markets one bit. So who is wrong??
    7 Jun 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    >IT

     

    Much of what counts comes down to GDP, 70% of which is consumer spending. Before I get a lot of corrective comments I know there is more to it, things like productivity, savings, revenue transfers, exchange rates and inflation plus many other factors. With so many less as a percentage of the ready to work labor pool actually working the direction of the economy as a whole has to decline, and it has- The average American family's standard of living has dropped every year for the last 11 years.

     

    The spinmasters can only spin for so long before the whole mess unwinds.

     

    What bothers me is that so much of the "news" out there is riddled with half truths and soundbites attempting to create a wine and roses rah! rah! rally 'round the markets mentality. I'm starting to believe that a significant part of the investing public can't take the effort to look beyond page 1 in the tabloids, and that's what's driving the bus right now. Unfortunately there are curves ahead.

     

    Windwood Trader
    7 Jun 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Nope, me too. CNBC is saying QE will stay on, nothing's changed. So that means bullish for the market. Pre-market trading is up but not overwhelmingly so.
    7 Jun 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So again we see that as long as tapering is put off the markets stay afloat. Doesn't that say we have a fragile market?

     

    Meanwhile I thought gold was suppose to move up with QE'S yet today gold is down $20 bucks.

     

    Humm..
    7 Jun 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Hebba Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (1308) | Send Message
     
    I wouldnt read too much into it - would not be surprised if there is one of those 11:15 AM recoveries when the price spikes up...
    7 Jun 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    Soros going long on the Japanese equity market-
    Short on the yen

     

    http://on.mktw.net/126...

     

    Windwood Trader
    7 Jun 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    Are we to assume that the profit taking on the Japanese market is over then?
    7 Jun 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    Is there a symbol that if others wanted to trade the Japanese market ETF'S you can share ??
    7 Jun 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Japanese markets:

     

    (DXJ)
    7 Jun 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks PAWS..I am guessing Soros already made that 3% rise today ( hummm)
    7 Jun 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    >IT

     

    Playing the Japanese market-

     

    I'm in it for the long haul and the ETF I have found will produce the most after the dust has settled is (SCJ) Japanese Small Cap Index fund. This is one of the few that reacted the least during the recent panic cleansing spree. I have been adding on dips for a couple of weeks and plan to continue.

     

    (SCJ) Up 2.8% today, 7 June.

     

    Windwood Trader
    7 Jun 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WT

     

    Thank you for that info !!! So for those who want to research Japan's markets so far we have to symbols for you.

     

    (DXJ) and (SCJ)
    7 Jun 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those numbers today fell right into that sweet spot. Markets like it so far !!
    7 Jun 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Hebba Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (1308) | Send Message
     
    30-yr and 10-yr are losing significant ground on the day - higher interest rates are not good for markets especially at such elevated levels, but the momentum is too strong. These are the kind of situations that give you significant mid-day reversals when momentum slows and players take their +170 and sell into the weekend.
    7 Jun 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @HEBBA or others!!

     

    What rate of interest does the 10 year and 30 year become an issue for Bernanke ????
    7 Jun 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2228) | Send Message
     
    Hello IT,

     

    I think interest rates, particularly the volatility of interest rates, is already starting to become a problem as they relate to mortgage rates. The fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked as much as it did in such a short period of time runs completely counter to one of the Fed's primary objectives of trying to support a recovery in the housing market. And I'm assuming that the folks at the Fed must know that the net effect of QE is to cause Treasury yields to rise instead of fall. Thus, the best way for them to try and fix the problem at this point would be to take some steam out of stocks and let the flight to safety bring Treasury yields back lower through some more explicit tapering language over the next week or two. All of this assumes, of course, that the Fed hasn't started to lose control of interest rates, although I think much of the recent volatility in yields has been a result of the ongoing market instability in Japan. It will be interesting to see.
    7 Jun 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    (MUX) is terrible today. grrrrr

     

    I am, however keeping my trade open. Should bounce soon. :-)

     

    Krsutyman
    7 Jun 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Well, I just on board for the ride! Relatively small amount in (not nothing though - so waiting for an up day here.)

     

    See nothing in the news to bring (MUX) down. Just a big gold dip. So fingers crossed gold comes up again, like it "should."
    7 Jun 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    IMO gold is trading in a range right now!! Should bounce back...
    7 Jun 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I was just coming here to ask, what's going on with (MUX) today?

     

    @IT said gold is down as stocks are rising, could be it?
    ... but the drop was before opening bell.
    I'm thinking of buying some, it'll bounce.
    unless there's some news I'm missing.

     

    I'm out of the market & missing today's climb up. (Couldn't be here to watch it or get in.) It's not as much of a climb as I'd expect if the bull-mode was back in town. This tells me that there will be more sideways days coming, IMHO. (...unless there's a rapid rise later in the day that changes the picture.)
    7 Jun 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Remember I posted above that late yesterday we had huge buying, that the futures pit was active and bullish AFTER HOURS. Could it be someone had unreleased info to trade on ? NAH !!

     

    Interesting times for sure, and I trust no one when money is involved. I have no proof, just reporting what actually happened yesterday..
    7 Jun 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I'd made note of your observations & the implications... with a "I'll bet you're onto something." Sure enough, I noticed it this morning...that's what yesterday's up was about...<raising eyebrows>? I missed that you said " that the futures pit was active and bullish AFTER HOURS." That adds info to my learning bin on signals.

     

    I'm beginning to conclude those straight steady up & down movements (with no apparent reason behind them) are from the money makers & computers.
    7 Jun 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    curls

     

    have you checked how many shorts MUX has lately? it used to be heavily shorted before
    7 Jun 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    How do I check shorts? So if it was shorted -- that would bring a lot of selling after it went down with Gold, to push it farther down. So, it could be cleared out for an increase?
    7 Jun 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "have you checked how many shorts MUX has lately? it used to be heavily shorted before"

     

    RIN or anyone

     

    Can someone expand on this and explain the importance of shorts on a stock!

     

    Thanks!
    8 Jun 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    During my investing experience in mining stocks similar to MUX, I found out that many hedge funds tend to short them to bring the price down; I see this a buying opportunity for the long term; sometimes positive news from the company will crush the shorts with people buying or the stock will rise when people have to cover their shorts; I don't trade with shorts and only see it as a buying opportunity.
    8 Jun 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    So would you say that the less shorts on a stock from hedge funds are good or bad?

     

    If I understand you correctly (MUX) has less shorts so is that a good or bad sign in your opinion?
    8 Jun 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT
    The less shorts on a stock, the better chance for a stock to rise; I don't know if (MUX) has less shorts, that 's why I mentioned to check it out
    8 Jun 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    For those of us that have no clue where to find that information can you supply a link or a how to do it for us ??

     

    Thanks!
    8 Jun 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin

     

    A whole dimension to look at -- futures effects. I hadn't remotely considered this.

     

    How do I check shorts on a stock? I bought it hopefully low, when shorts were already clearing out.
    8 Jun 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT & curls

     

    http://bit.ly/LDhQ2I

     

    yep, here is the site for NASDAQ with 30,000,000 + short interest as of 15 May highest ever
    8 Jun 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Thanks for the link!!

     

    So then this is a bad sign unless we get a short squeeze ??
    8 Jun 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Yes, this has been my experience
    8 Jun 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Curls ain't going to be happy...
    8 Jun 2013, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rin. I didn't know you could get all that data off Nasdaq. Does look poor - there's more shorts than for IBM, & I'm sure more IBM stocks & volume.

     

    It did just drop down yesterday by 8%. How is this likely to play out? Will that drop mean they've already been able to close out those shorts? .... or likely there will be effort to keep it down still the shorts expire/get filled?

     

    Looks like I'll be holding this for a while.

     

    @ Krusty

     

    What's your opinion on the shorts on (MUX)?

     

    ,...a chance for me to learn
    8 Jun 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    Never used these data reported on the above link so I do not have any opinion. I try to keep everything as simple as possible.

     

    If we could know in real time what the short interest is, that would be another story. But still...I am not sure I would use the data.

     

    My favorite tool is investors' sentiment :-) it works!

     

    Krustyman
    8 Jun 2013, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KRUSTY and CURLS

     

    I also never used this data either. However to add more info to this I read where the big shots (BANKS) have REDUCED their shorts on gold and have gone LONG !!!

     

    So as you can see one set of figures does not make a trade secure!!

     

    Always can find a reason to defend ones argument.
    9 Jun 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Where did you see that the banks went long on gold? Seems interesting.

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Krusty :-)

     

    What is "investors' sentiment"? Or more accurately, how do you go about gauging it. (I bet that's a long topic, but any clues help.)

     

    All I knew, is it was unpopular for no good reason I could see, just funky mood about the market. A leader of down in the sector. So down, is a good time to buy & wait.

     

    @ IT

     

    "I read where the big shots (BANKS) have REDUCED their shorts on gold and have gone LONG !!!"

     

    That's hilarious. ...and this is how I wound up in math. 1+1=2 & no one can go long, short, contradict or start a good old argument about it. (Though in fact, I have seen some.)
    9 Jun 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    Two sources that I did not bookmark. One was your favorite, ZEROHEDGE, and another was an article about the very same thing.

     

    The "book report" basically stated that the lower gold and silver prices allowed the TBTF guys to unwind their shorts and go long. I believe Harvey Organ, and Mike Maloney also covered this as well.

     

    If I am mistaken I am sure someone will correct me. Hopefully Tom, Doug, or Fear will comment on this..
    9 Jun 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    So it's very possible the shift in count is the Nasdaq site's data is older. (I couldn't tell when it's from.) ?

     

    Wonder if they're going long for a good reason, or it's just that it went down, so time to run the other way... I have this mouse in my kitchen, this is reminding me of.
    9 Jun 2013, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Well, if it's from Zerohedge I will not even consider looking at the article. A website that is encouraging his readers to be massively short on the S&P 500 since the 900 level is not serious to say the least. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    It's the pulse.

     

    ''how do you go about gauging it.''

     

    You observe and listen. Scepticism is the key word here IMHO.

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Zerohedge copied it from another source. So I took it at face value. Some are allowed to make mistakes :)

     

    Your choice though
    9 Jun 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Lol, I have no idea what you mean. Breaking it down... Learned instinct is obviously part of it. Skepticism of all sorts of data - makes lots of sense. It's been a month & I've heard more drivel than I could even absorb.

     

    Are you listening for investor sentiment to be poor, so it's buying opportunity? Or for solid sentiment (in spite of media hype)? Where do you get sentiment - SA articles & comments (plus all the other sources out there)? I see lots of articles, but very little that tells me what investor or even institutional investors are thinking. Is it from movement in the charts? So you're not worrying about fundamentals much?

     

    Sorry to ask so many questions. ...'tis fascinating though. Whenever (IF) you get a chance, I'd enjoy hearing your thoughts.
    9 Jun 2013, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    :-)

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    Going to bed. :-)

     

    Tomorrow I'll get back to you.

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    This site also provides short data for a stock with a chart, along with a lot of other data. The short info is always in the 2nd column from the right below.
    Chart in this link is for MUX.

     

    http://bit.ly/118zh2D
    9 Jun 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    "@ IT

     

    "I read where the big shots (BANKS) have REDUCED their shorts on gold and have gone LONG !!!"

     

    That's hilarious. ...and this is how I wound up in math. 1+1=2 & no one can go long, short, contradict or start a good old argument about it. (Though in fact, I have seen some.)"

     

    Not sure what your comment means. Could you explain what's so funny?
    9 Jun 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    tampat

     

    thank you for providing site; I believe MUX stock price will improve by the end of the year since calls far exceed puts when I checked last night but you never know markets
    9 Jun 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin

     

    Where is it that you check for calls & puts?

     

    It's turning out, even if I don't do options,I should learn them as a barometer tool. It's all like a chess game.

     

    @ IT

     

    What was funny was how it's going this way & that way so quickly & everyone's opinion is "it's wonderful" then "it's terrible" all with such enthusiasm. Nothing solid, & nothing concrete you can learn & be done with.
    9 Jun 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    curls

     

    I use pretty much yahoo finance and every stock, if it is optionable, has Options on the left and just click on it...all calls and puts with all different dates should appear...good luck
    10 Jun 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    "According to recent COTs, the commercials have their lowest net short positions since 2001 and 2008. Lots of short covering has been happening and those shorts have started to go long. It's the trend trading hedge funds that are the ones who are all short now. "

     

    Found part of what I read and NO, it isn't from ZEROHEDGE!!
    10 Jun 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    BTW, (GM) was very early 34.81 pre-hours & 1-2xs since. If I'd held, I could have gotten out even :).
    7 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    ''BTW, (GM) was very early 34.81 pre-hours & 1-2xs since. If I'd held, I could have gotten out even :).''

     

    Yep! :-)

     

    But you've followed your plan. That was the right thing to do.

     

    (MUX) is following gold big time today. zzzzz

     

    Krustyman
    7 Jun 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So lets see where the markets end the week. I am going to bet they close almost EVEN !!

     

    That , to me is a sign of traders just trading to make money weekly. Not that the markets are healthier..

     

    You chart people can tell me if I am close. As you know I don't follow charts. But isn't it funny if we just BREAK EVEN for the week?

     

    Thinking outside the box, collusion? manipulation? coincidence?
    I am crazy?

     

    Rates are rising, commodities are dropping , can kicking going on? Am I crazy?
    7 Jun 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @IT - where did you look to see what futures were doing after hours?

     

    I'm noticing that you need to have a pulse on all sorts of areas, it see the full story on the narrow stocks you happen to be in. Gold, Futures, Bonds, Junk Bonds, various sectors....
    7 Jun 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I just watch the last hr on FBN and they do a report on the Futures market everyday! I read a quote a year ago by a seasoned trader and he said that everything prior to 3pm is just posturing and gambling. The last hour is for the real trading !!

     

    I believe Art Cashin was the person. If I felt comfortable I would just own high dividend stocks as you always have that income stream. Reinvest the dividends. However , I do my gambling at the track.

     

    Like I always say I can be way off base. That the rules of trading have either changed or they will revert back one day. I see you are day trading and I can't do that with any conviction anymore because I just don't feel comfortable.

     

    http://bit.ly/126Lgmi READ THIS !!!!

     

    I follow bonds, and if rates are rising I feel BB isn't happy, If I see the metals rise I feel BB isn't happy. Today he was happy because the markets liked the numbers. But on a serious note unemployment is way higher then 7.6%. Job creation is still anemic. You need close to 300k jobs monthly to just stay even with new people entering the job market.

     

    I am no expert, but I am not willing to invest just yet either. I believe long term investors will have a better entry point. I am willing to wait . I do have exposure to a few dividend plays but am basically in dry powder until I feel comfortable.
    7 Jun 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Commodities should be rising with negative real rates but CBs don't like rising commodities because it would show their policies a failure
    7 Jun 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Until the CB'S buy all the gold they need imo they will suppress the price. I also understand other factors come into play as well. But one day the metals prices will be unleashed when the CB'S can profit from it !
    7 Jun 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I got in with only 1.5% of my funds. If I could have been here this morning I would have jumped in for a while & back out by now. On (MUX) of course I bought ($2.48) & it's down 4 cents.

     

    Now that I see the day's pattern, I don't see a raging bull coming back, unless I'm missing something. I'm with you, waiting just a little to see how the markets go before getting back in. June 19th is next Fed release. Then (and I need to work on this plan), I'll get into dividends stocks, & solid companies for a longer haul, so even big drop won't matter. I'd really like a lower entry point. The economy is squeaking along, not roaring.

     

    Meanwhile, while I have it in cash, I'm looking for plays... or at least to learn & get a feel for the movement patterns. At $7% down, I'm hoping it will climb at least a little, & it's at least a little contrarian to my usual holds so if I need to hold it for a while, that will fit in fine.
    7 Jun 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » " I'm with you, waiting just a little to see how the markets go before getting back in."

     

    I may be waiting more then a little. I think the ole saying "sell in MAY and go away to OCTOBER" might actually have some merit to it.

     

    By October we can be in a whole different scenario for sure.. I don't for see a huge upside breakout coming with this fragile of an Economy and the speculators margined to the hilt!

     

    My 2 cents.
    7 Jun 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Bought CDH in Canada (natural gas) and (PLG) today.

     

    :-)

     

    Krustyman
    7 Jun 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    I was looking at (PLG) this morning too, but that gap down on plat and the metals scared me away from it for today. It also had 3 consecutive up days which made me leery on this one for today. Good little trading stock if you catch it at the right time. Looking for an entry for a short term trade.
    7 Jun 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    tampat

     

    I used to own PLG a long time ago and I am not sure it is for the short term trade; there is a disconnect with the price of platinum and palladium with the mining production in South Africa limiting supplies and yet mining stocks are this low.
    7 Jun 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    It's great to buy when stocks are down. :-)

     

    (PLG) is well managed and very well financed. Chinese investors invested a lot of money in January (if I recall correctly).

     

    I am not planning on selling this one before the $1.50/$2.00 zone.

     

    Krustyman
    7 Jun 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    I understand. I often just look for small pops, in and out, like a 2-3 day rally, though sometimes I hold longer.
    8 Jun 2013, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    You hold only for a couple of days? No long term hold at all?

     

    Krustyman
    8 Jun 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    No, in my brokerage acct I dont hold anything long term, especially now with the markets as they are.
    I do believe its possibly we could wake up one day to a 500-1000 point decline with everything going down including the baby in the bathwater.
    I'm not saying this is likely but I do think its possible.

     

    I do hold long term in my IRA's though.

     

    I use my brokerage acct for trading only and if I put on a trade that doesnt go as I expect I look for an exit.
    I will admit I am stuck with a silver holding in my brokrage acct that I have been holding for a while now as I bought it right before the big smack down in PM's and I misjudged how bad and long it was going to be. I am very underwater on that one but will just hold it as long as need be as it isnt a huge position. I think silver will come back up one day, week, month, year.

     

    So generally they are pretty quick trades. I have some positions on right now that I have had for about a week that are bouncing around a few cents of break-even but I think they will go up a bit so am waiting for that. I'm happy to get 10-15% on a short term trade, anything over 20% I consider a gift.

     

    Yes, sometimes I close out a position at a gain and watch it take off higher after I'm out, dont you hate when that happens???
    But then, there are times when I get out with a gain and watch it tank shortly after that. That sure feels good when that happens :)
    8 Jun 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    tampat:

     

    ''Yes, sometimes I close out a position at a gain and watch it take off higher after I'm out, dont you hate when that happens???''

     

    Yeah! It happens all the time! :-) The opposite is also true.

     

    Krustyman :-)
    8 Jun 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    Why platinum?? (PLG)
    7 Jun 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Both a precious metal and economic sensitive (cars). Also, supply is at a 13-year low I think. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    7 Jun 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    Krusty-

     

    Take a look at Stillwater (SWC) as I feel it is a better play.
    I have farther out calls at $13 in addition to the stock.

     

    Windwood Trader
    8 Jun 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Winwood:

     

    Thank you, I will add it to my watch list. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    8 Jun 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Friday, June 7, 2:45 PM ET
    Similar to a pattern seen a few times over the past few weeks, underneath a solid rally in the averages are big declines in a number of income favorites. The culprit again is falling Treasury prices, the long bond off more than a full point and yielding 3.32%. Some popular equity REITs: Equity Residential (EQR -1.3%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.4%), HCP (HCP -1.6%), Realty Income (O -2.6%), Senior Housing (SNH -2.9%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -1.3%), Government Properties (GOV -2%). Also: Continued rout in mREITs. "

     

    NO WAY BB IS HAPPY WITH A 3.32% INTEREST RATE!!
    7 Jun 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    I think those REITS are getting sold off for the wrong reasons (fear of QE ending -- interest rate hikes). Many of them had a really big run and were overpriced but now some are getting back to buying range.

     

    I don't think QE is going to end at all, just BB and friends trying to talk the markets around a bit. I think they will even increase QE if necessary.

     

    The problem is, are we close to seeing a major market downturn or just a mild correction. If its the latter then some quality REITS are getting very buyable with good divi's and may see some real nice moves back up.

     

    If we do get a crash or prolonged downturn, there isn't much of a safe harbor anywhere except to hold cash USD's, as the USD will probably perform the best of the currencies. And contrary to popular opinion, if the markets tank bonds will likely head back up (meaning rates go down).

     

    So its really a major conundrum. Buy now and risk a large downturn or stay out and watch the markets continue higher. I am buying a few things in pretty small quantities so if it continues up I get some participation and if they crash I have funds to add on at cheaper prices when the dust settles. These are not easy times for investors and savers.
    7 Jun 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    NO WAY BB IS HAPPY WITH A 3.32% INTEREST RATE!!

     

    Troubles in IRS swap land??
    7 Jun 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Lets see what happens next week! But bonds interest rates have been creeping up for sure!
    7 Jun 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Bond bubble starting to deflate!!
    7 Jun 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TAMPAT

     

    That is why I throw these things out for discussion. Let's see if others agree...

     

    GEEZ...Just looked and am getting no LIKES.... LOL
    7 Jun 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    You believe there's a correction ahead at the least? Or was this the correction?

     

    I see conflicting info & no idea what to make of it:
    - Markets were happy with the news, particularly Thurs pre-leaked to whomever, into Fri morning.
    - Today after initial fast runup, it was tepid. So, it's not a bull mood back in full (which conflicts with how happy a reaction.).
    - No sell off at peek though, a very last minute buy up.

     

    I don't see a major crash coming immediately. More correction would add up though, & be worth avoiding.

     

    I'm in the same spot, do I go back in, or stay out a bit more. Right now it's still below where I got out, but not by much. I'd like to eventually be in for a buy & hold for a while for most of portfolio, rather than day by day watching.

     

    I'm suspecting bonds will take one more hit when rates raise (rates independent of yields).
    7 Jun 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    To buy and hold would be nice except that at some point this market is going to fall hard, but when is the big question. So I am mostly in cash but still have some small holdings and will make small buys selectively on set backs on something I want to have longer term.

     

    I dont know if the recent setback was the correction or if there's more to come. We may double top here and then head down, but who knows? As long as the market stays above the 50 day MA there is no need to panic.

     

    I think a break below the 50 day MA will be something to watch for. The 50 day MA has held the small downturns all year so a break of that may very well lead to a move down to the 200 day MA which is quite a bit further down.

     

    I have read that margin buying has continued to increase so a move down will cause margin calls, forced selling and create more selling pressure. I couple closes below 1600 SPX might do it.

     

    As for seeing it coming (a crash), we probably wont.
    Watch the volatility to see if it increases, that may be a sign.
    For the crash scenario, we will likely be blind-sided and just get big drops as everyone tries to clear out. When it happens I think bonds will jump and maybe the USD also as people rush for safety, so I keep a small bond position on also. I think the metals and miners will fall also in the crash scenario.
    Of course I could be wrong, but I dont want to be all in right now.
    8 Jun 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I've been reading articles since yesterday -- but your writing was clearer than anything I've read!

     

    The bottomline is no one's quite sure where it's going, but everyone quite sure it's no longer cut&dry safe. Question becomes -- if the crash is a while out or another rally points about to happen -- what to do.

     

    Okay, so now I understand how to use the MA50 & 200MA. Finally, thank you. I've seen the 1600 support in a few professional technical-signs articles, so I could imagine it's used by a speculators as you described. Volatility has gone up, but don't know if it's enough yet.

     

    That's a good point, to keep a close eye on bonds if stocks start moving down... to get in either before, or right as they get money flowing in, if you want bonds or the profit. I just put money into a miner, smallish amount but I'll hold longer term if need be.

     

    Woof (I miss our dog that looked like your picture.)
    8 Jun 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Okay, so now I understand how to use the MA50 & 200MA."

     

    Can anyone include a link to a graph and explain to the newbies where the MA50 and MA200MA are?

     

    Thanks!
    8 Jun 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    If you posted that for my benefit, there's no need. It's easy to click a box on the charts (on Scottrade or whereever I've found them) & the MA is added to the chart.
    8 Jun 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Nope, I posted it for those following and learning as well !!

     

    Me thinks we have a need for that information in the archives of this blog as well...
    8 Jun 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Just pull up any chart on stockcharts http://bit.ly/duZ1er and they use the 50 and 200 day MA as default so they are there without having to do anything to the chart.

     

    I think many other chart providers show the 50 and 200 as defaults also, like this one:
    http://bit.ly/11Onkhc
    9 Jun 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FWIW...I still like (PSEC) with that nice dividend. It got hit already if you look at a one year chart!!

     

    Any opinions??
    7 Jun 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    (HTGC) might be worth a look.

     

    WT
    7 Jun 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    I own a chunk of psec within my Roth (biggest individual holding). I bought it earlier this year and am down. I am also dripping it and have no intentions of selling anytime soon. Take that for what you will from a newbie - I think having a BDC or two whilst banks are reluctant to lend is a positive. If I was contributing to my Roth instead of the taxable account, I would be tempted to double down.

     

    Talk with you folks in eight days - I've got my work rotation starting tomorrow.
    7 Jun 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @User

     

    See you in 8 days. Have an enjoyable week!
    7 Jun 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Curls, In response to your post on another blog, yes, sometimes I split my work between Oakland and S.F.. That Bay Bridge gives everybody trouble during commute times.
    12 Jun 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HERE WE GO !!

     

    "It's looking like the June policy meeting when the Fed will officially signal it's set to begin tapering asset purchases, according to Jon Hilsenrath. Yesterday's lukewarm jobs reports removed pressure to act right away, but the prerequisite necessary to cut back QE - an improving economy - has been met."

     

    What effect, if any, will this have on the markets? Will they taper?

     

    Thoughts on this in next Chapter which will be completed soon!
    SO HOLD YOUR THOUGHTS..
    8 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    UP AND MOVING !!!!
    8 Jun 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
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