Seeking Alpha

Interesting Times'  Instablog

Interesting Times
Send Message
I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
My blog:
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 6........ 180 comments
    Jun 8, 2013 11:19 AM | about stocks: VBR, SCJ, MO, PM, TNH, COP, GIS, KMP, GGN, MDLZ, MUX, VYM, VXF, PLG, KKD, DBC, MORT, PFL, PHD, VVR, JRO, MTGE, NRF, RAS, PMM, MHI, NMA, KCAP, CHI, NCV, SAN, BBVA, VE, VGR, AWP, IGR, GPL, AUY, LYSCF, PSEC, PSLV, REMX, SLV, GNT, RAD, GDXJ, LMNX, NEM, ABX, AMZN, XOM, GE, IBM, EMR, ORCL, QCOM, CSCO, CHUY, MDBX

    Where do commodities go from here, are stocks and bonds still sound investments? Oil. Etf's Physical metals..

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug, Chris, Focal Point, Tack, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Tickers not included above !! (NASDAQ:TSLA)(NYSEARCA:VBR)(NYSEARCA:DXJ)(NYSE:GM)(NYSE:EQR)(NYSE:AVB)(NYSE:HCP)(NYSE:O)(NYSE:SNH)(NYSE:OHI)(NYSE:GOV)(NYSE:HTGC)(NYSE:SWC)....Apparently it only accepts a certain number of symbols.If I missed any please let me know!

Back To Interesting Times' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (180)
Track new comments
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HERE WE GO !!

     

    "It's looking like the June policy meeting when the Fed will officially signal it's set to begin tapering asset purchases, according to Jon Hilsenrath. Yesterday's lukewarm jobs reports removed pressure to act right away, but the prerequisite necessary to cut back QE - an improving economy - has been met."

     

    What effect, if any, will this have on the markets? Will they taper?
    8 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks.

     

    I HATE TO ASK ANYONE TO DO THIS. But I am posting questions on others articles and feel that my like are getting further away from my posts.

     

    I expected this to happen as I want to just throw out topics and suggestions. But if a few of you would spend a few minutes and hit the like button on my posts over the last 6 chapters I would hope to get the other authors to answer my questions.

     

    I always hit *like* on every post to build it up for all of you. Maybe if a few did the same for me I can also get some newbies to post and others to follow me as well.

     

    I HATE asking but feel it will only help over time.

     

    Thanks!
    10 Jun 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    IMO, if they taper at all it will be very minor. I don't really care as I don't see much effect on the economy either way.

     

    What I do find most interesting is the recent jump in t-bill rates and the concommitant rise in mortgage rates. I firmly believe that higher rates are in fact good for the economy as long as they stay within 200-300 basis points above the inflation rate.

     

    A good friend of mine is a custom home builder and realtor. He's been bemoaning the housing market in our area for years. I've been telling him that all we need is for rates to rise and he would be busier than ever. I was out of town this past week and today he told me there were more houses listed in the last week than any other week in the past three years.

     

    I told him that's exactly what I said would happen. Now, he is a glass half-empty guy and said yeah but there were no sales during the week. Well, in real estate you have to have the listings before you can have the sales. All of the new sellers have been sitting on the fence waiting to sell their houses for more money, but now they are thinking they better buy before rates go up too much more. That's what buyers will be thinking as well.

     

    Since I believe housing drives a good share of the economy, I see nothing but better times ahead. I'm all for rates going up a bit more. It's all good unless you are a bond holder.
    8 Jun 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ALSO

     

    Very good points made on housing. However what interest rate who deter people from buying? Or does the homeowner have to decide whether to keep the listed price or drop it?

     

    That is something I have always wondered about!
    9 Jun 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Raising rates isn't really good for housing, except that if they're MOVING UP, it motivates everyone to buy & sell before the rise. (Which is what you've just said, so just to repeat!)

     

    Buyers come from being renters or new graduates with better paying jobs. So everyone calculates monthly payments. Rates go up, you can get less house & may wait. Or rates up, & it's more affordable to keep renting. Then rental rates come up to cover landlord mortgages & you have renters moving back to buying again. So it's zero sum in the long run, with fits & spirts along the way.

     

    I remember 8-10% rates & sales were good. So was interest at the bank. Still it was better at 8 than 10%. Owners can re-fin if rates go down considerably, & people really like to own their house, so not much stops that beyond not qualifying & putting food on the table coming first.

     

    Homeowner's rarely like to drop their prices. Neighborhoods will go down in price & force slower increases. But overall housing tends to a steady increase, so long as wages are the inflation-based same or better. So if the area's losing jobs & salary base or location factors, housings get effected downward. Otherwise, it keeps going same or up. The bubble was very unusual. It was possible to tell too.... I didn't buy on the way up or at the peek because it "felt off" to me (and I was looking hard to move at the time.)

     

    During the bubble, people kept $400 listings where the comps were $200 by then, and claimed it was a "sale price" like anyone was fooled. The longer they insisted on overselling, while the more it went down, the more they lost. Smart money set below, early on....same as with a stock that's tanking...

     

    Well much more than you asked, but I couldn't resist adding my 2 cents :)
    9 Jun 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    More mixed messages. Are they putting out the word tapering, letting the markets get use to it... and they'll finally taper when saying the word stops creating a down turn...never mind economic indicators, lol?

     

    His article was released after hours some articles say, but this one references it at noon. So was it released during the day?
    http://read.bi/11MseeO

     

    I'm not in & missed the run up yesterday, so it's good news for me if the market comes down a bit on monday. Or anyone think it will it get happy to hear it's not immediate tapering & start a new rally till June 19th?
    8 Jun 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Add: Looks like it was mid-day release. So that's why markets stopped climbing mid-day?
    8 Jun 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Emmet Kodesh
    , contributor
    Comments (593) | Send Message
     
    Curls, this is an interesting thought: a steady drip of anaesthetic and then a full dose in the 'main nerve.' It is likely that the entire QE - fiat apocaplypse and replacement era is for the purposes of a "wealth consolidation event" as I call it. There are analogies from many areas of culture. Try this recent piece for a useful view. The fundamentals have not disappeared though they are eclipsed by spin just as a squid squirts ink or jets spew chaff.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Values fill the PM miner space, one just has to have a strong stomach and patience since major players like to buy low.
    10 Jun 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From the FWIW CATEGORY,I am not sure how they calculate their TOP blogs but we just moved up 2 notches overnight!!

     

    Hope more will join us so please spread the word as it seems to be working!

     

    Thanks to all of you, my idea is gaining traction. Hope all are happy with this !
    8 Jun 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • convoluted
    , contributor
    Comments (2173) | Send Message
     
    As to the price of gold, I got asked that question at a dinner last night. A retired doctor insisted that it had to go up in 5 years.
    My opinion, he asked.
    I have no idea, I responded.
    But you're short now (I told him about my current strategy), he said. Good call, but I'm looking out 5 years.
    Why, 5 years, I ask. What about 41/2 years or six years-or December 31, 2016 at 2:15 PM?
    Ok-fair enough. But don't you think all this money printing will ruin the value of the dollar?
    Doc, the real value of the dollar has been on a slippery slope for many years. But, I just don't have a clue as to the value of gold-or cotton, or tea leaves.
    So, as to the issue of precious metal prices, there may be a tradeable correlation out there. But, I see more of a paradox. Why do people continue to buy the real deal and liquidate the paper instruments?
    NOTE: I've sold puts on DUST. I have an order in to sell NUGT puts. I play both ETFs. I simply try to go with the prevailing wind.
    8 Jun 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CONVOL

     

    Thanks for stopping by. Hope you comment often!!!

     

    We can use the ole Pros for sure ..But I do think they are getting concerned about interest rates rising now !!
    8 Jun 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    I looked at Lynas (LYSCF.PK) but Vanguard wanted $50 plus regular commission to trade it, $57 for a .50 stock is a bit steep. Thats just one way.
    8 Jun 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I remember having the same issue a few years ago with Lynas but if I recall there is another symbol that trades at the $7 buck rate.

     

    I was going to be hit with that same exact fee. Ask the on line broker about a different symbol. Let us know !!
    8 Jun 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4

     

    I looked up OTC on Scottrade.
    "For stocks priced under $1, add ½% of the principal value to the commissions shown."
    Would that be close to Vang's $50?

     

    On Vanguard's fee page they don't even mention OTCs. Guess they aren't aiming to trade in them.

     

    I recently traded OTC with Scottrade but it was over $1/sh, & was $7 a trade. It used to be $12 for limit trades but they lower their prices while I wasn't looking...
    8 Jun 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT,
    I think it was tripleblack that explained the dual nature of Lynas a couple of years ago. One is on the Aussie market, the other is here, if I remember correctly.

     

    Lynas other symbol is (LYSDY.PK)
    9 Jun 2013, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @STILL

     

    Yes, it was Triple !! Thanks for the response..
    9 Jun 2013, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    Did you get that symbol for Lynas posted here???

     

    Lynas other symbol is (LYSDY.PK)

     

    Posted by STILLDAZED. I thought it was Tripleblack who found that over a year ago for us !! Great recall STILLDAZED!!

     

    Guessing you own some huh? If so could you elaborate of what has taken place with them over the last 2 years ??

     

    Thanks..
    9 Jun 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT,
    I have followed and am still following Lynas. Lynas has been through a tough year having to do with national politics where the LAMP project is situated. Most of the political problems are resolved and the phase 1 of LAMP production is in progress. There are some economic considerations ongoing as pertains to the Chinese govt. setup of a REE cartel to control REE prices and availability (please see TB's insta as he is very thorough in his analysis). Lynas is one of the very few REE producers not controlled by the fore mentioned cartel. TB also discusses Moly Corp (MCP) and others that are working to produce or in development phases. I will come back with a link to TBs insta. http://bit.ly/17A5ZRF
    9 Jun 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @STILL

     

    Thanks for the update! For those interested in THE REE'S I can say the link provided is a MUST follow !!

     

    I thought I read recently that their govt. was concerned about the waste being dumped and if it was contaminated. Am I wrong?
    9 Jun 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    HI IT,
    It wasn't a govt. concern as much as a certain political party trying to use Lynas as leverage in/up to the recent elections (whipping up of emotions). As long as Lynas lives up to their environmental projection and promises, it is and was a non-issue. The regulations of the govt and the Lynas compliance plan to deal with them are strict, meet international standards and are doable. This is a brief over view and doesn't reflect the time consuming govt process of science committees and court battles in the last year that created impatience and anxiety for share holders.
    9 Jun 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @STILL

     

    So a possible good long term play then. I remember following it around a buck though. Do you have any timeline on this since you are following it?
    9 Jun 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I'm the worst person to ask about timing. I guess if I buy or sell do the opposite. :-)
    9 Jun 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » STILL

     

    I know the feeling, I stopped trying to time the markets $$$$'s ago!!

     

    Lost I might add.. lol
    9 Jun 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    I caught the symbol, thank you. I will check on it more tomorrow. Stilldazed think the environment concerns are legit or just a shakedown? I saw the election was over but they seem to be still in a uproar about it.

     

    http://bit.ly/14MtII4
    9 Jun 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the help with the symbol. I added some today under LYSDY with no premium. LYSDY is their ADR-American Depositary Receipt.
    10 Jun 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I am sure you *like* the symbol??
    10 Jun 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    I "Like" everthing IT thanks ... I hope I will like Lynas as well.
    10 Jun 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    Schwab only wants $7.95 per trade.

     

    Me thinks they will not diminish any QE'S at the moment. Markets are tired of the Boy calling WOLF much too often imo!!
    8 Jun 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    Normally I pay $7 but for some reason on Lynas they had a $50 add on. It's the first stock I have seen like that. Fifty dollar commissions brings back memories. What next fractional pricing?
    8 Jun 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Dick Phillips
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    I wanted to buy some Lynas on Pink Sheets and Fidelity had the same $50 charge. Something to do with their costs to buy the shares. I could buy through them on the Sydney market but the commission was something like $42 plus whatever the dollar exchange rate is to change US$ to Aussie$. I do buy through Fidelity on the Toronto exchange with a $19 commission charge and the exchange issues but it isn't as worrysome to me dealing in CA$. I do find Toronto Exchange usually has more liquidity (more shares exchanged per day) than the same company stock does on Pink Sheets.
    9 Jun 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DICK

     

    We have a symbol for you to save money..

     

    Lynas other symbol is (LYSDY.PK)

     

    WELCOME!!
    9 Jun 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    You are really moving up the charts ... http://bit.ly/YMB4YE No. 17 and rising fast.
    8 Jun 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, you guys are moving me up the charts!!

     

    I have no idea how they calculate it but I guess people *LIKE* this format.. (hint hint )
    8 Jun 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    You gots the momo thing going.
    8 Jun 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Congrats! It is obvious that people like your blog a lot! (hint hint hint) :-)

     

    Curls:

     

    Re: sentiment. I would refer you to the put/call ratio and the bullish sentiment newsletter done by Marketvane.

     

    Put/call: you simply divide the number of puts by the number of calls.

     

    Bullish Sentiment: % bull, bear and neutral.

     

    These are the tools I am really comfortable with.

     

    On top of that, you watch the main tv channels to get a pulse of the message type they are conveying to the public.

     

    There is also the charts, which are applied social psychology tools.

     

    Finally, forums are almost the perfect place to gauge the ambiant sentiment.

     

    Hope this helps. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Hi Krusty :-)

     

    Thanks! I wouldn't have thought to check that info on put/calls. I've been avoiding paid services since you can't tell on your own, if they provide anything handy.

     

    Does MUX still look bullish?

     

    "There is also the charts, which are applied social psychology tools." It must be that class you took, that make them useful to you. Are these also from a website/service?

     

    So though you do it with more experience & background, you tend to a style that I'm comfortable with & finding myself checking out. I like working from "sentiment", as best I could figure it & my several trades done based on it, went very well. Very good to know this stuff can work. Thanks too for sharing. That's more valuable than all the advice on TV & sales sites combined & then some.
    9 Jun 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    (MUX) still looks bullish to me, ready to bounce right on its 30-day moving average. However, I prefer platinum and nat gas in the resources sector.

     

    "There is also the charts, which are applied social psychology tools." It must be that class you took, that make them useful to you. Are these also from a website/service?"

     

    Never took any class for charts. You need one book and you are good to go IMHO. It is the Stan Weinstein book that was published in 1988 "Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets". For regular charts, stockcharts is my favorite. For $15 a month you can go back to 1990. Going back 23 year ago gives you perspective.

     

    You should have a look at sentimentrader.com, you could be interested. Jason Goepfert is an amazing statistician and offers excellent data.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    I've ordered the book from the library. I have more to write... but first I have to fix the m-mimus-a-hump key om my keyboard. Wish me success. I havem't dome this before. Thamk goodmess it's mo im my passwords.
    10 Jun 2013, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    "Thamk goodmess it's mo im my passwords."

     

    Lol! :-)

     

    Keep me posted on the hook.

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    I've been known to talk like that a few times in my younger years. Gotta be killing her not commenting today!!

     

    lol:)
    10 Jun 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Eheheh :-)
    10 Jun 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FOLKS

     

    I just heard a loud crashing noise. You think CURLS just threw her computer out the window??
    10 Jun 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Nope, I'm stronger than that, lol :).

     

    My eyes are closing, but had to say Hi!

     

    I have a keyboard again. I swapped with a non-working unit I use for parts. Sad thing... I tried swapping just the "ns" & broke the n on the new keyboard just a bit too and it's flopping around. ...so I stuck it back on & I was typing away here & the n fell off again in lots of little pieces... I was just going to gripe, but I just finally figured out how to piece it together! There's these little tiny plastic tabs... with even tinier plastic holes. ... now what do I think about HP??

     

    Actually this "slightly newer" keyboard's little connectors are a much better design than the original keyboard's. So in a short time, HP did design improvements with creatively & smarts. Which meant some factory in China had to totally rework their equipment & HP spent the money on it. Hum, interesting.

     

    (Sigh. I know, I'm technically a geek.)
    11 Jun 2013, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    @Krusty

     

    I didn't get the hook yet today. Too busy with my n's. I'm looking forward to it!

     

    @IT - lol!
    11 Jun 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    "crashing noise"

     

    Oh no was it the market, not my computer? If it'd just do that -- we could both solve our dry power problem!!
    11 Jun 2013, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Krusty:

     

    "applied social psychology tools."
    I thought you took a course in the psychology of the markets? (not on charts.)

     

    Stockcharts with lots of diverse options & sentimentrader are both very impressive looking.

     

    (MUX) is really bouncing around. There was an announcement tonight. I'm wondering if it's good or bad? Also with that very odd last minute huge drive up today... did someone know in advance & like the news?

     

    " Monday, June 10, 7:20 PM McEwen Mining (MUX) cuts its 2016 production view to 225K gold equivalent oz. from 290K, which it says could reduce capex requirements to the point where "cash reserves and cash flow from operations could be sufficient to fund the majority of revised production growth." 1 Comment [Commodities] " http://bit.ly/11SP0By
    11 Jun 2013, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    The ''hook''?

     

    lol!

     

    Krustyman :-)
    11 Jun 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    Studied psychology at university for 1 year but that was about it. Then, 1 year in communication, nice! And finally 2 years of business administration...boring zzzzz :-) I understood why analysts' calls were so poor at that moment :-)

     

    Everything I know about the market has been acquired via books and experience. And let me tell you something, I have a lot more to learn. I just turned 40 recently and I am learning every single day.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    11 Jun 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Krusty

     

    So you can call yourself an expert in everything! It's that the way it works? Hope you finally found a major that caught your interest.

     

    So analysts' are so bored, they finally type in whichever word they hit on their dart board (used to relieve the boredom). Makes good sense. As much as some recommendations I've read.

     

    Well, for me, it's nice to be in a place with people who are learning....
    11 Jun 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Group hug? Just got back in from a long day..Gotta catch up !
    11 Jun 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    Yep, me too. And here, we are learning every single day.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    12 Jun 2013, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Group hug for sure! :D

     

    Krustyman
    12 Jun 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thinking maybe ordering Tee shirts or hats? Or at least have Dave Letterman do a TOP 10 lists.??

     

    Not so sure how long we stay here but I could care less. Our group is binding, something I had hoped for. Remember when you were hesitant about posting here? We are all glad you did !

     

    Thanks for your insight and your strategy as well !
    12 Jun 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY and all !

     

    I am hoping that people continue to join us. The help I can use if you posters are in another article participating just drop this link in and invite that author as well.

     

    We all have different Authors we follow so by doing so it opens up a whole different world of followers and hopefully participants!

     

    Do I get a LIKE for that ??
    9 Jun 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » POLITICAL !!!!!

     

    http://huff.to/102SDLd

     

    Is this going to be good news or bad news long term??
    9 Jun 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    To everyone:

     

    Any guesses on what it will do on Monday. And through the week?

     

    @ IT - politics
    That's all short term blips on the market at most. Doesn't effect economics or perceived economics, so it's only emotional response. Which doesn't last long on the market, IMHO.
    9 Jun 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    Next week we have:

     

    Thursday, June 13:
    *Unemployment claims 8:30am
    * Retail Sales 8:30am

     

    Friday, June 14:
    * Producer Price Index 8:30am
    * Industrial Production 9:15am
    * Consumer Sentiment 9:55am

     

    So Thursday and Friday should be interesting.

     

    Krustyman
    9 Jun 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    Krusty has laid out the data points that may affect markets this week.

     

    My .02 -- Short term - S & P has held support at the 50 day MA (1600)
    I believe we may be at crossroads soon, market will need to now trade up to 1675 level & above on the S & P to confirm another move up.

     

    OR fail at those levels and head back down to test that 1600 level again.. Until we see a break either to the upside or downside of those targets, I expect to be in a trading range with some increased volatility...

     

    Just a blip for LT investors , as the LT trend is still intact... Looks like a difficult environment for the short term traders, as the market reacts to every headline now , both positive & negative.. Easy to be shaken out with every knee jerk reaction..

     

    Happy Investing ..
    10 Jun 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Fear&Greed:

     

    Yes, it is true that short term trading is more difficult than it was a month ago.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I am going to take a guess and say Monday will be flat ! Interest rates ticking up a little, and gold about even..
    10 Jun 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    F&G

     

    Thanks for laying this out! Coming back here, & it's still very apropos info. I've seen a few sites claiming the same... long term still bullish but short term undecided/short
    11 Jun 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    http://bloom.bg/eF6A1C

     

    It is early but the futures are a little down. Now as far as politics go I throw that out to kinda change the subject, not to link it to stocks !!

     

    Our group can multi-task !! lol
    9 Jun 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    "It is early but the futures are a little down. "

     

    To make sure I understand the terminology - that means more future bets placed are shorting stocks?
    9 Jun 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CURLS asked a very important question so hopefully someone could tackle it for me??

     

    Thanks !
    10 Jun 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Standard & Poor's affirms its AA+ long-term and A-1+ short-term credit ratings on the U.S., and revises its outlook on the long-term rating to stable from negative to indicate its current view that the likelihood of a near-term downgrade is less than one in three."

     

    Are things getting better????
    10 Jun 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (4237) | Send Message
     
    Didn't the government put a muzzle on the ratings agencies a while back? I seem to remember Egan Jones, and one or two of the big ones getting scolded. I don't believe what they say at this point.
    11 Jun 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Hi fishfryer,
    The ratings agencies haven't been believable for years. Look at the ratings they were giving out before the last big market crash.
    11 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FISH

     

    Still is right, I don't care what those agencies say anymore. They are TOLD what to do!! imo
    11 Jun 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I could use some advice. I want to open an ETF which includes mostly the Dividend Aristocrats. A few have given me Vanguard Mutual funds and I thank you.

     

    Without buying each stock separately do I have any other options?

     

    Thanks!
    10 Jun 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Another choice.. SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which tracks the S&P High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. It holds 60 companies from the S&P 1500 Index that have lifted their dividends at least 25 straight years.

     

    Wisdom Tree also has a Div ETF.

     

    While I understand the ease of buying this type of ETF, my personal preference is to assemble my own basket of "aristocrats" over time, allowing more flexibility. My approach is more "hands on", and therefore may not be for everybody.
    10 Jun 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    My favorite is the Vanguard consumer staples etf (VDC).
    Its got a 2.5% divi which isnt fantastic but not bad.
    It can be a good core holding and then add in some higher divi stocks around it.
    Prior to buying it for my IRA I ran a comparison of different etf's on Google finance where you can input different symbols to compare performance and it beat everything I checked it against (similar type ETF's). Comparing its 5 & 10 yr performance I couldn't find anything that did better.
    And the costs for Vanguard ETF's are quite low, the lowest in the industry I think. VDC expense is .14%
    10 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    I use to invest in Vanguard and just thought that a 2,5% seemed low for companies that are suppose to INCREASE dividends yearly.

     

    That was one of my concerns, plus not sure if I enter now or just wait for a pullback. I can dollar cost average but do I sell some of my physical to gain this exposure?

     

    I do have a limited budget and would hate to part with my physical at these prices, although I am way ahead of my breakeven..

     

    Confused for sure as I don't see QE slowing down so should I join in? I went to mostly fry powder and KNOW s soon as I buy the markets will drop 10% . My luck as always>>
    10 Jun 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Tough choices.
    If I buy anything now first I decide how much I want to put into it then I just buy 1/3 of that. If we see declines I can buy 1/3 again and 1/3 again after that. If the markets keep heading up at least I have some exposure. We will see more declines at some point, but who knows when or from what price level.

     

    As for selling any PM's to do that it depends on what % the PM's are of your total. If I had 50% or more of my total in PM's I think I might sell a bit, but you gotta do whatever makes you sleep well at night. I think PM's will rise again, but who knows for sure???

     

    As for those ETF's you aren't going to get the same yield as if you purchased each stock individually, but the benefit of the ETF is to get exposure to quality companies on a more limited budget or also for those who just don't want to try and pick and choose the stocks they want.
    10 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,
    great advice on "scaling " into a position,, it removes that "exact" timing aspect for the position that is next to impossible to achieve.
    10 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PAWS

     

    You hit on all the Questions I would have asked..

     

    Thanks!!
    10 Jun 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    ETFs get a different yield than the average weighted yield of the stocks individually? Can you say more?
    11 Jun 2013, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    @ F&G & Tampat

     

    Thank you for the dividends ideas. It's helpful for my research too!
    11 Jun 2013, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I just wrote you a PM on this. You read my mind!! Any standout symbols that pay a high dividend rather then hope for capital appreciation?

     

    I , personally am looking for an income stream. No against buying each stock either!!

     

    Hope you had a good weekend>>>>
    10 Jun 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Dividend stocks are looking good in my mind too. We're both in cash. Are you getting cold feet? As anything changed in the market outlook to change your choices? Or are you thinking a buy & hold on dividend stocks is worth it even if the market goes down?

     

    I'm still waiting. I may jump in during the day & out again. I may miss part of the climb up .... and be oh so frustrated. I'm still expecting more downside (every chart reader says "soon we'll know.") I was very bothered on Friday when I got home after the rise & had missed out so much... and started 2nd guessing this plan.
    11 Jun 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CURLS

     

    No, I still expect some type of panic selling. Whether it is sound or not won't matter. Prices will drop. I am just trying to line up and monitor what I want to buy when it happens!
    11 Jun 2013, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Ohhhhh. That makes more sense. It's exactly what I need to do too. Including in dividends.
    11 Jun 2013, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Gonna try to get some sleep. Talk to you tomorrow..
    11 Jun 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Everyone has a diff. definition of "high" yield, if your are looking for 5-8 % , most of my favorites are in the MLP & REIT sector. They have had good runs and I am waiting for a pullback. Especially in the REITS.

     

    Then the BDC's , an emerging asset class like your (PSEC) which offer higher yields - 8% or higher..

     

    And some folks want names in the 3-5 % range and have a good track record of solid div. growth. A starting point is The David Fisher Div Growth list , it can be downloaded here ; http://bit.ly/rABTPA

     

    A combination of those sectors will provide good diversity and exposure to all aspects of div. investing .

     

    I'll put together a list of names that I own and currently watching when i get some time this aft.
    10 Jun 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Thanks , as I am sure others will want to take a peak at it !!

     

    I do ...
    10 Jun 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Here are some of my fav's by sector
    MLP's

     

    (LINE) - Own
    (GMLP) - Own
    (EPD) - Own
    (UAN) - Own
    (TGP)
    (VNR)
    (NGLS)

     

    REITS

     

    (OHI) - Own
    (O) - Own - corrected sharply can start buying here
    (DLR) - Own - can start buying here.
    (STK) - lower yield than others - has come down to buying range

     

    Div. Aristocrats.

     

    (CVX) - Own - waiting for pullback to add
    (MCD) - Own - waiting for pullback to add
    (LEG) - Own
    (AFL) - Own
    (T) - Own - Like (VZ) on a pullback as an alternative
    (UBSI) - Own
    (JNJ) - I still like but haven't pulled the trigger

     

    Div Growth candidates

     

    (INTC) - Own
    (CSCO) - Own
    (FCX) - Own - Just announced a $1.00 special Div. Has $1.25 Reg.Div
    (QCOM) - Own - I like it here , strong buy under $60
    (ESV) - Own

     

    Fav Drug Co's for growth &- decent yields
    (MRK) - Own
    (NVS) -Own - Huge run - maybe add under $70 ?

     

    (JPM) - Own - Fav. Bank - growth with nice yield
    (AAPL) - Own - I like the Div. - don't think they are dead just yet.
    Probably forgot one or two. Like the market, a lot of these names are stretched , so suggest due diligence in selecting buy ranges.

     

    I currently have 28 positions , 22 are paying dividends. Have another group of names that I use as short term trades , and sell covered calls on others for income.
    (EBAY) is my latest covered call play. Bot EBAY 6/5 @ 52.15 , Sold the July 52.50 calls for $2.16.. If EBAY is above 52.50 on July 20 ( expiration day) , the yield is 4.7% for holding the stock for 6 weeks . If it is below 52.50 my yield is 3.8% for the same 6 weeks, and I own the stock at an effective price of $49.90.
    Not a bad way to add income..

     

    Of course there are many more ideas from David Fish's spreadsheet and other authors here on SA.. Always searching for new and better ideas.

     

    It's work , but it keeps me out of trouble..
    10 Jun 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Wow, thank you for this full listing!!
    10 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Nice list.
    I noticed no defense stocks like (LMT), (RTN), (ATK), etc.
    Some have a decent divi and my own thoughts are that there will be war always, at least in our lifetimes and the talk of military spending cuts is overrated.
    Just curious about that.
    10 Jun 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    That is a sector i totally missed. As u said, some have nice div.. and the sequestration talks last year was a great opportunity to get involved. LMT was on my radar but i never pulled the trigger..
    10 Jun 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PAWS

     

    "my own thoughts are that there will be war always,"

     

    You peeking in my windows today??
    10 Jun 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    LOL, no, not through the windows, I have a drone overhead though!
    Nice nick you created for me. Oh well, if the shoe fits...
    10 Jun 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4379) | Send Message
     
    F & G: We own many of the same stocks, possibly you could help me pare down to 28 from my current number, somewhere over 400.

     

    I even recognized the symbol STK as one that I own but would have to disagree with you that it is a REIT:

     

    Columbia Seligman Premium Technology (STK)
    http://bit.ly/19YYKSF

     

    If I was going to buy one of the businesses that you list, and admittedly I may be a few dollars short, I would want to know the free cash flow and the free cash flow yield. It is also a way for me to compare the free cash generation from two different companies.

     

    I would generally agree with the author of the following linked article that a free cash flow yield of greater than 5% is good:

     

    http://bit.ly/UIAnNM

     

    Earlier today, I calculated the FCF Yield for Intel which I own and will simply drag and drop that discussion here. I used the intraday price for Intel:

     

    "Given the number of my holdings, and the number of stocks on my monitor lists, I will rely on a third party to perform some basic computations for me. For free cash flow, I will simply go to YCharts.

     

    Intel's FCF Numbers
    http://bit.ly/SFNvci

     

    Capital expenditures would be deducted from net income to arrive at FCF.

     

    Just looking at the YChart numbers, I added four quarter of FCF and came up with a $9.94B number.

     

    About once a year, I will take the time to calculate a FCF yield number which requires some time.

     

    I last did that calculation in a December 2012 post and came up with a 9.05% FCF Yield number which is good.

     

    http://bit.ly/Toc8uA

     

    FCF Yield: Free Cash Flow Divided by Market Value Plus Debt Minus Cash

     

    I decided to go ahead and update the numbers based on the current market capitalization this morning and using the other data from the last earnings report for Q.E. 3/31/13.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/16WRQPa

     

    Market Cap at $24.94= $123.88B

     

    +DEBT of $13.231B= $137.111B

     

    - (Cash + Marketable Securities= $17.073B)=$120.038B

     

    Enterprise Value=$120.038B

     

    Divide 12 month FCF of $9.94B by $120.038B=8.28%

     

    The decline is due to the rise in market price since my last computation."
    *****************

     

    I also own Cisco. I did that calculation in a 5/27/13 comment. To arrive at the current number, you would need to plug in today's market capitalization and redo the additions and subtractions:

     

    "I own a small position in CSCO. I do not own a significant position since I am not qualified to evaluate the competitive landscape for Cisco's products. That statement is true for virtually all technology stocks.

     

    I did start to buy a number of large cap technology companies in the later part of 2008 and into 2009, all in small quantities, based on standard and time tested valuation criteria including their abnormally low P/E multiples at the time. I am a long time practitioner of value investing. My current Intel position was acquired for example with small odd lot buys starting after Lehman's failure:

     

    ( if interested click Snapshot in Item # 4 Snapshot of GE and Intel Purchases with Cash Flow):

     

    http://bit.ly/TPnuT9

     

    I will compute after each quarter's earnings release Cisco's free cash flow yield which helps me decide whether to sell or to hold my position. The FCF Yield number for Cisco is very impressive at 10.93% using the prior 4 quarters of FCF.

     

    The author of the following linked article maintains that a FCF Yield number in the 8% to 10% range would be a "stunning bargain".

     

    http://bit.ly/UIAnNM

     

    FCF Yield: Free Cash Flow Divided by Enterprise Value (Market Value Plus Debt & Preferred Stock Minus Cash)

     

    http://bit.ly/19i6EGo

     

    For the 12 months ending 4/30/13, Cisco's total FCF was 10.857B, up from 10.153B in the prior 12 month period, using YCharts Data:

     

    http://bit.ly/UWCP7Z

     

    Market Cap at $23.52 Closing Price=125.75B

     

    + Debt $21.063B

     

    - Cash + Marketable Securities $47.388B

     

    Taken from Earnings Release for the Q/E 4/27/13:
    http://1.usa.gov/19i6H4Z

     

    Enterprise Value= $99.425B

     

    Divide 12 month FCF of $10.867B by Enterprise Value= 10.93%"

     

    **************

     

    I thought that I would do Qualcomm to see how it compares:

     

    12 months FCF: $5.379B
    http://bit.ly/19YYKSJ

     

    Market Cap as of 6/10/13: $107.18B

     

    +DEBT (none)

     

    - (cash+marketable securities=$13.493B ): $13.493B

     

    Enterprise Value=$93.687B

     

    FCF Yield=5.74%

     

    This says nothing about the sustainability or future profitability of the business, but it does give me an idea of how quickly I could buy the business at the current stock price using its own cash.
    10 Jun 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    Drones? My favorite is the unmanned ones watching my physical. But you knew that already!!
    10 Jun 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    Southgent,

     

    Wow, 400 is a daunting number. Do u really think I have a shot at getting you down to 50 ? LOL... I have been up to 50 but like to keep it around 25- 35. Appreciate you sharing your FCF analysis, and as usual you have given me plenty of information to keep my mind active for a while. Not a complaint, it is a good thing.

     

    I inadvertently quoted the wrong symbol in the REIT section , it should be (SKT) Tanger outlet, not (STK).

     

    I noticed in one of the attached links that (BBBY) was also mentioned as having a 7% FCF yield which is good news.. I own that also, its a Non div payer but picked it up real cheap last Dec. Like the mgmn't team.

     

    Another that was mentioned was (GPN) don't own it but have watched it for a while..

     

    Any thoughts on MSFT ?, Extended now, but I may get interested on a pullback.

     

    Thanks Again - Happy Investing
    10 Jun 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4379) | Send Message
     
    F&G: I can not hold onto Microsoft shares. I am an Apple guy so I have some prejudices against a company that lost its mojo many years ago in my opinion. Still, I can not resist buying a hundred shares every now and then. In fact, I noted recently after checking my prior trades that I had been buying around 100 shares every year since 2009 when I bought my first shares in over a decade except for a quick flip in 2008. I can not remember that far back anymore so I do a google search of my own blog and find out what I have done.

     

    I am not going to pay for my nursing home expenses with the Microsoft profits, but at least I did not buy in 1999-2000 and waiting for a rise back to $58, near a peak price.

     

    I see that it closed today at $35.47. My last sell was less than optimal, in retrospect, at $32.83:

     

    Item # 3. Sold 100+ MSFT at $32.83

     

    http://bit.ly/11Tg3ia

     

    As noted in that post, I received many years ago one share of MSFT stock bought by a relative from
    http://www.oneshare.com

     

    As a result of splits and dividends reinvestments, I am up to 7 or 8 shares. One benefit to actually having the share certificate is that I am enrolled in the DRIP plan and can just send them a check and buy more directly from MSFT which I have not done. The one MSFT share is in a nice frame but it is dull looking and very uninspiring. I put it in a bathroom on the second floor. Personally, I much prefer my one share of DISNEY, given to me as a Christmas gift and purchased from the same firm, which is in a frame next to my trading desk (now 3 shares). It is a work of art.
    10 Jun 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the list F&G. That can certainly keep us busy learning from! If I spot anything exciting to me -- I'll be sure pass it on. Never know, even new inexperienced eyes can spot things anew.
    11 Jun 2013, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @F&G

     

    You come out with a list this long again and either your going to manage my money or were gonna have some serious concerns.

     

    lol.

     

    Adding all these symbols made me crazy. Plus I won't mention who actually wanted me to put them in alphabetical order.... (tampat) lol
    12 Jun 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    You should see my "watchlist" ,, I'll remember to alphabetize as I post them .. :)
    12 Jun 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    Comedian huh??

     

    List out those *watchlist* for some who might want to do some due diligence on them. That is if you feel ok doing it. Just bracket them so I can cut and paste them to the next article..
    12 Jun 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    I'll toss them out from time to time as they get close to what i feel may be a good entry point. Otherwise it would be overkill .
    Here is one :
    (LVS) , Las Vegas Sands - turn around story with their Macau properties.
    Solid uptrend , decent div . approx 2.5% (just increased) and they gave a special one time div of $2.75 last year.

     

    I don't own , may start a small position , and leave room to add on any market downturn..

     

    12 Jun 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    (RAD) rocks today! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    I took profits on RAD today. It was up nicely and I couldn't resist. Bought 6.5 @ 2.88 sold 6.10 @ 3.18 ... 9% in a week.
    10 Jun 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    krusty,

     

    I tried getting into RAD Friday but couldn't watch the markets so put in a limit order. Missed my purchase by 1 cent, 1 lousy cent.
    Shoulda just bought at market instead, oh well.
    10 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    bd4uandu:

     

    Nice one! :-)

     

    tampat:

     

    1 cent!! Was the bid/ask spread so terrible for you to place a limit order? :-(

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    krusty,

     

    No, the bid/ask wasnt the issue.
    I was going by Thur data close of 2.90 and Fri it gapped higher at the open to 2.94, so I put in a limit order just below that right after the open and it came down to 2.93 but that was the LOD. SInce I wasnt watching the markets I couldnt adjust anything.
    The bid did actually hit the price I wanted but the ask didnt.

     

    No biggee, there will always be another one.
    10 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    Off by a penny? sign, frustrating. Like you said, they'll be other ops.

     

    I've been figuring out if I can access the internet from various spots out of the house. Did pretty well. Still...dragging my computer is a drag. I'll have to win enough in the market to get an ipad or netbook or .... I felt so obsessive doing it.
    11 Jun 2013, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Go for the Ipad solution, curls. So easy when you're outside or on the road.

     

    Krustyman
    11 Jun 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Krusty. As soon as there's some up days when I'm home, so I can't possibly lose!

     

    I have an ipod but it's only upgradaeble to OS 4. something. And the hotspots provided by my internet folks, require OS 5. Bummer.
    11 Jun 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    Anybody buy (CHUY)? it is having a nice run up today but I sold too soon
    10 Jun 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    @Rina

     

    Dont follow it , but may start looking more closely - that is a break out to new high. We've all been there (selling too soon) , know how u feel.
    10 Jun 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    Rinascimento,

     

    Your supposed to tell us about it before the run up in price :)

     

    Just kidding, thanks for the symbol.
    10 Jun 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Rina:

     

    Nice one!

     

    I remember that one. We discussed it here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    krusty

     

    yes we discussed before; congratulations you had made the right call; right now I am riding (RAD); the next stock I pick I'll bounce off you
    10 Jun 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Rina:

     

    You picked (CHUY) in the first place so congrats to you! :-)

     

    I certainly want to know about your next stock.

     

    Cheers!

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    (RAD)s have a good trip up too! I didn't get into either... I will next good stock that comes by...
    11 Jun 2013, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Here is my latest Interesting Times topic for the day, and probably for many days ahead:
    http://bit.ly/106fW6Y

     

    It appears that China is close to introducing two gold ETP funds, which will mark the first time that these domestic funds will be available to the Chinese. This would appear to be fairly significant news, depending on when these actually become available in China, and how well institutional and retail investors respond to these new funds. A few questions that I have:

     

    1) When will these funds be available?
    2) Will access to these funds only be available in China?
    3) Will these funds increase overall gold demand in China, or will a portion of their existing physical demand shift to the new ETP funds?
    4) Will these funds operate similar to (GLD)?
    5) How will these new funds be backed in terms of physical gold on deposit vs. outstanding shares of the ETP's?
    6) Will investors in these funds be able to short these funds to the same extreme degree as (GLD)?
    7) What is China's real underlying intent of allowing these ETP's to be offered in China?

     

    Those are just a few questions I have, but I'll probably think of several more. I would think that if there is much initial and growing interest in these new funds once they are made available, that this could be short-mid term bullish for gold, assuming that the overall China demand for Physical + gold ETP's, would increase China's overall gold demand.

     

    Longer term, if these new products operate similar to (GLD), it would seem that this could be bearish on gold as this could be yet another tool to reign in the higher prices of gold through shorting these funds.

     

    It will be interesting to hear the details on all of this if they are available, or as they become available.
    10 Jun 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    OAG:

     

    It will be very interesting to see how it plays out. Thanks for the info and welcome to this blog. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    Here's an interesting note from the WSJ on the Chinese gold ETF's:

     

    Huaan Asset Management Co. received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to start its own gold ETF, the company said in a statement on its website dated Sunday. Guotai Asset Management Co. said in a post on microblogging site Weibo that it had received approval for a gold ETF.

     

    "China is the world's second-largest consumer of gold behind India, according to the World Gold Council, a mining trade group. The Chinese usually buy gold coins or jewelry, and government restrictions have limited the ability of investors to buy gold ETFs abroad.

     

    The Chinese gold ETFs would buy prompt-delivery gold futures contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on behalf of investors, which would give them exposure to gold prices in the domestic market. This would be different from most U.S. and European ETFs, which buy bullion for each share sold and store the gold in vaults."

     

    http://bit.ly/17FuRHJ

     

    To me, this explanation says these two ETF's described are even worse than GLD in the sense that they don't even buy the physical bars, but only contracts on the futures market. So that is like a third derivative to the real thing.

     

    There are certainly a lot of people in China who are wealthy enough to have a brokerage account to trade on Shanghai Exchange. But...the culture in China is to own physical. So, it will be interesting to see how this works. I don't like it personally.

     

    Also, these will RMB denominated accounts. It is very hard to get meaningful amounts of currency out of China, so even if a non-Chinese resident could open an account ( I doubt it) if you made a $million profit, I don't think you'd ever get it out of the country.
    11 Jun 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @OAG

     

    Welcome and thanks for that information. I am sure a few Authors will respond to some concerns you have.

     

    Looking forward to your posts!!
    10 Jun 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Hello,

     

    New to this blog but not so new to my favorite commodity, silver. It's a tough place to put your savings but I am, have always been and will always be confident that silver is a great investment and will pay off one day. I am hoping that day is not too too far down the road but my investment plan has always included silver long.
    It seems every time silver is on the rise I read articles about how we should have bought more at the last "bottom" but now, as we sit at what appears to be a new bottom, many are backing off silver. I don't get it nor do I agree with it. I admire and applaud those able to play silver up and down in the short term but that's not for me. My philosophy is build up the personal silver supply little by little as I can and simply sit back and wait. I am invested in both physical silver via ASEs and some stock via PSLV. I have been hit pretty hard by the drop these past few months but I live by the advice received from several investor friends..."no need to panic about a long term investment because you don't lose a dime until you actually sell." That is good advice although it took me a while to believe in it while I was watching my investment totals plunge. I understand those who are not necessarily long term being upset about the harsh dive in silver prices but when you are in long term you try to look at these hard falls as more buying opportunities.
    I also have some long term funds working but I don't chat about those since they are in place and packed up in a shoe box some where deep in the closet.
    I became interested in silver about 4-5 years ago and have followed it daily ever since. I remember first buying some at $17 an ounce. I also remember watching it make a fast run through the 20s, 30s and 40s while every other article proclaimed we were on course for triple digits but we never saw it break $50. Now, since those days in the high 40s, it has been one drop after another and the same people proclaiming triple digits are giving up on silver all together (or at least some of them). That is why I do not take any single opinion too seriously. As I see it there are too many bandwagon jumpers when silver is on the rise and too many abandoning ship when it drops. It's not easy to watch your investment crash to less than half after all the optimism that came with the rise to $47/oz., but a few wise friends made me realize that I should not panic and sell if I had the time to wait. One of those wise men is the moderator of this forum to whom I am grateful for all his support and good advice in many areas but most notably with silver.
    I look forward to reading the opinions and advice of others. We all want to succeed with our investments and often a diverse group of opinions can help educate each other. Good Luck to all.
    10 Jun 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Hebba Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (1595) | Send Message
     
    Hey Rich - my advice to you would be to back off the day-to-day and month-to-month movements and focus on the longer term picture. I've done a number of articles about the produciton cost of silver, and what we are seeing is that the best silver producers produce the metal in the low-to-mid twenties with thier all-in costs. The silver price is now below where most producers are able to sustain production for very long.

     

    Could it drop further? Absolutely. But what we will see (and are seeing now) is production is dropping and if the price is low enough for long enough then the market structure will change and industry and investors will find that they no longer have the supply they are used to. Ask yourself - do you want to own an asset at prices at or below the cost of production?

     

    Remember that big traders take advantage of emotions of retail investors. A must-read article for any market investor is the following:

     

    http://bit.ly/15iglm9

     

    Big traders want to drive your emotions and thus unload their positions when the price is high (the asset can do no wrong) and buy from you when the price is low (this asset does nothing but go down). Silver right now is in the latter phase of this process.

     

    Finally, ask yourself, how low do you think silver is going? I dont think you think it will drop to zero. But ten per ounce? fifteen? These are all unsustainable prices and we wont have any more mined silver at those prices. Really I believe the downside is minimal, so why sell now when the upside is much greater?
    10 Jun 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Hebba:

     

    What an amazing article. Can you point out when you see that manipulation in a chart (present or past)? My gut says I've seen it or variations. Spotting it could made all the different for short term trading.
    11 Jun 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RICH

     

    So let me get this straight. You post for the very first time and get 6 LIKES? 6 ?

     

    I post what I think are interesting ideas and you know what I get? Paws asking me to alphabetize the frigging symbols with barely a like !

     

    Tough crowd here !!
    12 Jun 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RICH

     

    Congrads on willing to join our group. I am sure some posters will give their opinion on silver as well!!

     

    WELCOME, and continue to post!!
    10 Jun 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    Anyone lucky enough or to have gotten into (KNDI) lately?
    Chinese electric auto maker. Whew, check out that chart!!
    I missed it.
    10 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    From Forbes ... http://onforb.es/19YWvia

     

    Interesting looking vehicles might be a good trade.
    10 Jun 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    Sorry SA should have used your link ... same article... http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    What half of my body rides on the outside??

     

    Reminds me of the Flintstones, with my A$$ pushing this sucker up the hills where I live.
    10 Jun 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    IT they make all kinds of stuff ... http://bit.ly/17DnlgD

     

    yubba dubba doo Hey Barnie?
    10 Jun 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    Amazing!

     

    Krustyman
    10 Jun 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    YOU can explain to my surgeon why my 3 disc in my back fused and those titanium bars and screws came loose after riding in one of those as well.

     

    Rather have half my body getting road burns!!

     

    Where's Wilma??
    10 Jun 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You guys are KILLING me with all these new symbols. I don't think I can load anymore on the ticker line. Gotta put them on the bottom ..
    10 Jun 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm let's see tomorrow is Tuesday .... I wonder?
    10 Jun 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another steak going to get started. Up or down???
    10 Jun 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    I think it be an up day Tue.
    10 Jun 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Me too.
    11 Jun 2013, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    ooops...
    Premarket dow down 120...
    11 Jun 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14446) | Send Message
     
    Cannot start another appreciable up streak for indices until various interest-related financial issues find support. Too many sectors selling off aggressively on overblown rate phobia.
    10 Jun 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    The bloom is off the rose?

     

    BB.. "Hey I'm pumping as fast as I can."

     

    Didn't I see something about reducing to only 65 billion?
    10 Jun 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I saw your comment on the BDC'S on another article. I get the feeling you feel (PSEC) is a safe investment right now? An Author posted what I copied below. Do you agree?

     

    " One of the tasks of management is to chart a course that balances debt and equity issuance. I listened to the February and May conference calls and I appreciate management's transparency and willingness to answer ANY question that comes over the phone.

     

    The company reported a 12/31 debt-to-equity ratio of 44%. In May the CFO said, "We believe our low leverage, diversified access to match book funding, vast majority of unencumbered asserts, and weighting towards secured fixed rate debt demonstrate both balance sheet strength, as well as substantial liquidity to capitalize on attractive opportunities."

     

    I'm not an easy sell regarding indebtedness, but in both conference calls I was satisfied with management's clarity about their financial structure. Regarding equity issuance, "From February 11 through May 7, we have sold approximately 17.2 million shares of our common stock in our ATM program at an average price of $11.14 per share and raised $191.9 million of gross proceeds."

     

    I found this helpful, from the CFO in the May conference call: "When the next storm comes ... we have built a very strong fortress here by having over $3 billion of bond convert assets and a entirely fixed rate financing structure on our term debt with no financial covenant. So we will be the ones going in offense when others are liquidity weak, when others are dealing with covenant breaches and the like we will have that balance sheet strength .... So we have ... run the business under-levered for quite some time. (Some say) you are pretty under-levered, you can move that up. And we appreciate that commentary, I think it reflects our carefulness and downside protection and ... we can move that leverage ratio prudently up while still maintaining a healthy cushion versus the 1X regulatory limit that supported by our structure."
    10 Jun 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4379) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Times: You ask me to comment so here I am. I left another comment above.
    I would not use the word "safe" in connection with any BDC. I prefer to buy PSEC when it is selling at below its net asset value per share. I added 50 shares at $10.15 last week which I will discuss in my next blog.

     

    The last reported net asset value was $10.71, as of 3/31/13, down from $10.83 on 6/30/12:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/13yybAa

     

    The company issued a press release in May stating that its net asset value would be increased by 6 cents due to a transaction involving Wolf Energy:

     

    http://mwne.ws/17DpWqN

     

    Still, it needs to be kept in mind that the net asset value per share was $15.24 on 12/31/2006 and the stock closed at $17.36 on 1/3/2007.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/VOHHsU

     

    This company also has a history of selling stock below net asset value per share.

     

    If you are interested, my last detailed discussion was made in Item #3 3. Pared Trade: Sold 50 PRY at $25.51-Roth IRA and Bought 100 PSEC at $10.20-ROTH IRA

     

    http://bit.ly/T5uYTm

     

    I note several other disadvantages in that post including one prior dividend cut. The company has been increasing its monthly dividend since that cut by a miniscule amount.

     

    I own around 600 shares and 100 of those are in the ROTH IRA. I will trade shares held in the ROTH periodically and will most likely sell that 100 shares at over $11 assuming that happens after collecting at least one year of dividends.
    I am currently reinvesting the dividends paid on the shares held in a taxable account but will take only cash dividends in the IRA. I will quit reinvesting the dividend when the shares trade at over a 5% premium to the last reported NAV per share.
    10 Jun 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Yes I did ask for your opinion and it is well worth it. Very detailed info for all of us. I used the wrong word *safe*, I should have used a good *entry point*.

     

    Thanks for joining us and also correcting anything if you think it is incorrect. I appreciate you adding your blog info as well.

     

    Please drop in when you have time as you said you are swamped. Any visit seems like it will be educational for sure!!
    10 Jun 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4379) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Times: Yes, "entry point" is a much better word than safe. I am sort of stickler about the use of that other word.

     

    Sometimes, someone, who does not regularly read my blog, asks me whether I consider a particular junk bond rated CCC+ and selling with a 18% or so yield and a 40% discount to par value, as "safe". Well, I would not call any investment that fluctuates in value as safe. Heck, I do not call the debt of our Uncle Sam as "safe" either. One day before I meet the great stock investor in the sky, I may see a news item that the U.S. government tried to sell 100 billion in T Bills in an auction and no one showed up. I would like to go on record now to say that, if and when that happens, the stock market is going to have a really bad day.

     

    Is this Bond Safe?
    http://bit.ly/1bq4Tp3
    10 Jun 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14446) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Etrade reports PSEC's debt-to-assets ratio at 34%, which is conservative versus their theoretical maximum of 50%. And, as they state, most of their debt is fixed rate.

     

    The good news is that they are very conservative and underlevered. The bad news is that at today's present low rates, if there were ever a time to be fully levered, especially at fixed rates, this is the time to be levered by the max, unless it's thought that the economy is entering a declining, rather than growing, period.

     

    Certainly, the company si not going to be hurt, per se, by rising rates, but on the other hand, if they wish to institute new borrowings, they will be at a higher rate than previously, so that places a higer hurdle on the returns they would have to acieve from any new business.

     

    So, if one thinks that the economy si about to expand growth, then PSEC's conservatism might be reduce its relative performance. If one thinks the economy may soften, then they're in a better relative position. In neither case are they in much jeopardy.

     

    P,S. As I have stated elsewhere, in the present moment nobody is much discriminating between balance sheets of various yield-related investments, They've pretty much sold all of them since mid-May, and especially last week and today.
    10 Jun 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Thanks, I will think this through and most likely stay put for now. Tough when you get hit from all sides and my limited investing on my own( I used mutual funds) makes me question my decisions .

     

    My due diligence says I will be fine, that I should be adding slowly to my position. Yet as you said soo many people have written this sector off. Which is why I want to buy more!!

     

    I like to go against the herd mentality when I feel it's appropriate.
    10 Jun 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4379) | Send Message
     
    I had planned to be at a Vanderbilt baseball game tonight, but unfortunately the team lost 2-1 yesterday in the Super Regional to Louisville after leaving 11 men on base, so I have some free time now.

     

    I will now do the Microsoft FCF Yield calculation so that we can compare it to Cisco, Intel and Qualcomm, noted above.

     

    12 month FCF: $27.522B
    http://bit.ly/17Dy6j8

     

    Market Cap as of 6/10/13 Close=$291.21B

     

    + Debt of $11.949B
    http://1.usa.gov/1bq9sQ3

     

    - (Cash +marketable securities)= $74.483B

     

    Enterprise Value= $228.676

     

    Divided 12 Months FCF by Enterprise Value=

     

    FCF Yield of 12.03%

     

    So maybe I needed to do that calculation before I sell my shares next time.
    10 Jun 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (2071) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Gent for your posts they bring an interesting perspective to the dialog.
    10 Jun 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6636) | Send Message
     
    Southgent

     

    Thnaks,

     

    maybe we nibble here on a dip..
    11 Jun 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4379) | Send Message
     
    F&G: If I had done this calculation before I sold the shares, I would have kept the shares. However, whenever I think about MSFT, a picture forms in my mind of a circus performer trying to teach an elephant to tap dance. I am not kidding!

     

    I made the following comment in a blog written back in 2011 when I bought some shares, later sold:

     

    " I do believe that Microsoft lost its Mojo many years ago. And, I have to ask myself why Apple is the innovator on such consumer devices as the IPod, IPhone and the IPad, and why is Microsoft with all of its resources and talent continually playing catch up on virtually every "cool" new gadget? Then there is the slowness in responding to Google's inroads. Then there are legitimate concerns about the future impact of cloud computing.

     

    While all of those concerns are legitimate, and many of those issues call into question the basic competency of MSFT's management without question, Microsoft is still a money machine, selling at close to 10 times projected forward earnings. . . . .

     

    While investors are justly critical of MSFT's failure to keep up in the fast growing consumer markets outside of its traditional Bailiwicks (Windows and Office), the current depressed share price is a function of placing too much emphasis on MSFT's many failures, while failing to give the company its due for its achievements. It also suggests to me that the youngsters who dominate money management lack perspective, and frequently define long term in much shorter units of time than the Old Geezers who have seen many trends come and go. While I should not even hazard a prediction, I suspect that MSFT will have a 25% to 35% market share in handheld computing devices within five years, with Google and Apple controlling most of the remainder.

     

    I also do not have a negative view of MSFT's recent link up with Nokia. I can understand why the market has pounded NOK shares over the past few days, but I do not see the logic in selling MSFT on that news. While it does highlight MSFT's perpetual problems, it does provide the potential for MSFT to capture a large market share for smart phone operating systems. It would certainly be fair to ask why a relatively new company like Google has captured the leading market share for smart phones with its Android operating system.

     

    MSFT has a long term chart that is typical of many large cap companies over the past decade or so. The following chart includes the period from 2/1998 to 2/2011 (chart omitted). . .

     

    This would certainly be discouraging for an investor who bought the stock in early 1998 and still owned the shares. And, anyone looking at this kind of chart, without knowing the name of the company, would likely take a pass and understandably so. I would first ask, though, whether the stock market was in a long term secular bull or bear cycle during the period shown by the chart, which may explain a lot.

     

    A lot of this sideways pattern is due to multiple compression that occurs for most large companies over the course of a long term secular bear market, when the market averages go up and down and end up going nowhere for about 15 years or so. To be sure, many of the large cap companies that are in this pattern have some issues. According to Value Line's data, Microsoft earned 45 cents per share in 1998 and had an average annual P/E of 42.8. By 2000, the annual average P/E hit 53.1.

     

    At the start of the going sideways pattern period, the stock is selling at a high multiple reflecting the irrational enthusiasm prevailing in the dying stages of a long term bull market. Large companies, who might be lucky to grow earnings at 10% a year are valued at over 30 or even 40 times future earnings. The end of the long term secular bull market will cause those multiples to contract, even though the company continues to grow earnings, to strengthen its balance sheet, and to expand its business and/or products. At the tail end of the long term bear cycle, generally around 15 years or so, investors will look at these companies and give them up for dead at 10 times earnings or even less. That is no more rational than valuing them at 40 times earnings near the end of the bull cycle...

     

    http://bit.ly/UowheR

     

    http://bit.ly/TXhOsM

     

    The problem is investor perception more than anything now, and that negative perception will be fueled by many young analysts who will not see any catalysts for the large cap company to break out of that long term, narrow trading range. The catalysts will ultimately be the valuation, a change in perception about the firm's long term prospects, and the overall strength of its balance sheet and financial position. The problem is trying to predict a transition point in a going nowhere cycle which has been ongoing since 1998. That is one reason why I have traded Microsoft shares and have not been a long term investor over the past decade or so.

     

    I do not have a target price for the shares, except I believe that $33 to $35 is doable within two years. A $6 gain on the shares would equate to a 22% return on the shares plus the dividends.

     

    *************

     

    That was a pretty good prediction as it turned out. My fortune telling on MSFT is more cloudy now.
    11 Jun 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    "I had planned to be at a Vanderbilt baseball game tonight, but unfortunately the team lost 2-1 yesterday in the Super Regional to Louisville after leaving 11 men on base, so I have some free time now."

     

    I am a NY Mets fan so I have PLENTY of time !!
    10 Jun 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1627) | Send Message
     
    IT, and High-dividend investors:

     

    BDCs don't look good now {to me} If the picture isn't good, I will not waste too much time on their fundamentals. It's not only BDCs, but especially mREITs, and even "safer" MLPs.

     

    Need to step back and look at the forest (the group); what these "safe" high yield income stocks doing now? Some are literally crashing {mREITs}, AGNC, ARR, and REITs (IYR): and others like PSEC are weak and will go lower.

     

    The whole high dividend income sector is acting crazy.

     

    Here's a doozy, Realty Income Corp, the last three months.
    http://yhoo.it/13TpxeE;range=3m;compare=;ind...

     

    Look at one of the very best BDCs, MAIN Street Capital. It is currently in a bear market, under its 200day MA:
    http://yhoo.it/11DUMvl;range=1y;compare=;ind...
    I don't see how PSEC will do better than MAIN.

     

    Same with FSC
    http://yhoo.it/11DUMvp;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    I know I sound negative, but I have to respect the price action and the picture that the Moving averages are conveying. I do not think I can analyze "why" these high-div sectors are selling down, but I can certainly see that it is happening and looks like it can continue lower. I am standing aside now.
    11 Jun 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » John

     

    Thanks for the input. We need to hear from the Pros what is really going on and then make our decisions...

     

    BTW..WE ARE NOW AT NUMBER 11 TONIGHT IN THE BLOGS!!

     

    Keep spreading the word as obviously we are gathering a following as more and more experts chime in !!

     

    Well see where we are in the morning! ( a few hours)...lol..
    11 Jun 2013, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14446) | Send Message
     
    Rate hysteria now fully caught fire, as evidenced by today's futures. Now, equities, bonds, and Treasuries selling off in tandem, which makes virtually no sense. But, that's what hysteria looks like.
    11 Jun 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    tack

     

    that's globalization at work for you...1 for all, all for 1
    11 Jun 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    Great post. I wouldn't have pieced it together yet...

     

    There's often a 10am turnaround. Same is today, more in Russell 2000 than S&P500.

     

    @ Rin
    It has gotten pretty funny that Japan's markets are reacting more to US news than US markets... then days later it turns around US as reaction to Japan's markets.
    11 Jun 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    This is why I feel many foreign markets act in tandem. Do others agree? ALL,,,, NOW TAKE THAT SURVEY ON CHAPTER 7 !!! LOL :)
    11 Jun 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MOVING ALONG..I asked a question on Chapter 7 to get us started!!

     

    Correction or profit taking happening today? ANSWER ON CHAPTER 7 !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jun 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Guys:

     

    On of my top picks is exploding today (LMNX). Boom! :-)

     

    But I am not in...yet!
    11 Jun 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    It already exploded (LMNX). It's sideways now....?

     

    Good call. I'm in (MUX), but it's down. Are you still in MUX?
    11 Jun 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Curious as a cat -- what made you think it was ready to climb?
    11 Jun 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    (LMNX): Technically nice and in a nice business. :-)

     

    No longer in (MUX). I mentioned it, did I? I took a lost of nearly 9 cents a share (net), ouch! :-( I have been too emotional on that one and did not follow my plan. Can you believe it?! :-) It still looks ready to bounce IMHO. But I do not want to influence you.

     

    Tampat:

     

    Why (SPY)?

     

    Krustyman
    11 Jun 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    krusty,

     

    Not sure what your why is referring to, but I'll give it a shot.
    SPY - I like how it stalled out at 165 and went lower, I think it tests its recent low around 160 again and if that doesn't hold look out below.

     

    Basically same story for TSLA, stalled at the 10 day MA and moved lower, and if SPY goes TSLA will go with it either up or down. Support at 90 but if that doesn't hold could be a big drop from there.
    I think it needs to go pay a visit to its 50 day MA.

     

    Market seems a little nervous to me. Notice that little correction in April that went down to the 50 day MA (SPY). As soon as it touched it it went right back up, 17 up days with only 4 minor small downs in 4 weeks.
    It looks to be struggling here a bit, indecision.
    Overall, I am in a correction mindset and want to have some exposure to the downside just in case it happens.
    11 Jun 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    krusty,

     

    Also, did you see this article out today on TSLA?

     

    http://bit.ly/192KeIl
    11 Jun 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    tampat:

     

    Could be the start of a correction (TSLA) what do you think, tampat?

     

    Krustyman
    11 Jun 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Krusty :-) (Someday will you tell us the story behind that name?)

     

    You said you liked PLG better, but didn't mention the (MUX) sale. I wondered but didn't quite pick up on it. What was your plan, to hold longer or not buy?

     

    At the least I'll wait till a generally up day to get less of a loss. It has some surprising jumps & holds for periods while S&P is down. So I'm thinking it may hold value (bounce) a bit. On technicals & bouncing, I don't know them but my fingers crossed. It's good to hear. If you see a change, let me know :).
    11 Jun 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    krusty,

     

    Yes, I think it could be. Did you see my comments a few posts up?
    11 Jun 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Krusty:

     

    On (MUX), it's well below it's 13MA, and that's crossed way below the 50MA ($2.40). Isn't that signs of a break downward & momentum down. ... as in get out as soon as there's a good opportunity?

     

    (I read a website page. Now I'm an expert, lol. :)
    11 Jun 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    ''Krusty :-) (Someday will you tell us the story behind that name?)''

     

    No! Just kidding! Krusty is my favorite Simpsons character. That's why he is my avatar. And what about you? Why curls?

     

    ''What was your plan, to hold longer or not buy?''

     

    On (PLG)?

     

    At the moment, I hate the miners...which should be good indicators! :D

     

    Platinum and Nat gas seems 2 promising areas for the next 12 months. People seem a lot into oil and gold but barely mention nat gas and platinum, so...

     

    Regarding (MUX) he should bounce on his ma30 days. And if it bounced, you may want to ride the rally a little bit before selling. Your entry point was around $2.42, correct? So that's still OK. Mine was too high. I will keep an eye on it for you but as you know nobody could be right 100% of the time. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    12 Jun 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    But despite the (SPY) what about (GM) being more problematic for (TSLA) for a while? Agreed that it should dip on ma30/ma50 level meaning $80/$70 pull-back.

     

    Krustyman
    12 Jun 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    The stock is extremely oversold at the moment.

     

    Also, I thought the stock closed at $2.38 yesterday which is not the case. So we are a little far from your entry point, but still, it is extremely oversold.

     

    The stock is reacting to the news reporting a cut in forecasted production for 2016 so the stock is adjusting to that news and people always over-react, so it is tricky here.

     

    Krustyman
    12 Jun 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Krusty:

     

    So it'll likely bounce back... but not necessarily to where we were both expecting? I got in higher at $2.48. Now at $2.31.
    Keep the miner hate going :)... I need the bounce!

     

    You'd said on (MUX), you didn't stick with your plan. So I was asking what the plan was --- to hold longer, till when? or not rebuy?

     

    So Krusty is a fav! Mine is a hair feature. :) nothing exciting to tell.

     

    All the winning picks posted -- and I picked the only one that isn't bringing home the gold at the moment (couldn't resist the pun.)

     

    On (TSLA)
    I don't see GM as the competition? TSLA are $50k+ high end "special" cars. At the electric car group near me, everyone'd love to own a TSLA, but drive GMs, Fords, Hondas.... some gutted & redone electric when they have the $12K.
    12 Jun 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Good lord it's still going down... while everything else is going up.
    12 Jun 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    re: (MUX) my plan was to exit sooner and I did not follow it so I had to sell at a substantial lost.

     

    I will be honest, I am really tempted to sell (PLG) at the moment, but my plan was to keep it until the $1.50 level. I hate the miners! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    12 Jun 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    Nice pick krusty.
    I've been thinking about that one but ya snooze ya lose sometimes.
    The only shopping I've done today is (SPY) and (TSLA) July puts.

     

    TSLA was good to me 2 weeks ago so trying again, 90'ish target.
    11 Jun 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
     
    Hmm, looks like were on an old page again, guess we should move to page 7.
    11 Jun 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT..

     

    Paws.. Thanks for mentioning the next chapter. Before you know it RIN will be complaining how long it takes to load..LOL.
    12 Jun 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    I've been answering to come some topics started here. But if it makes sense (more to talk about), I'll move them to the new one.
    12 Jun 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » UH HELLO.... CHAPTER 7 !!!!
    12 Jun 2013, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    Right, that's what I just said (in between the typos).
    12 Jun 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13362) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New keyboards don't have typos do they??

     

    RIN is gonna get pissed that it will take 5 minutes to see this post... LMAO.
    12 Jun 2013, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5645) | Send Message
     
    I ordered the one with typos. That way I can always plead the fifth (i.e. typo). Oh well, couldn't resist answering... Rin - see you on Chapter 7!
    12 Jun 2013, 01:55 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.