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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 11........ 139 comments
    Jun 19, 2013 7:41 AM

    Where do commodities go from here, are stocks and bonds still sound investments? Oil. Etf's Physical metals..

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug, Chris, Focal Point, Tack, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Everything is open for discussion!!

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Comments (139)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have no idea why capital letters throws out a blog. I just opened this one up !!

     

    OK, lets start over. What will BB say today?
    19 Jun 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry for all the lost data, however it is out of my control.. I guess they have rules I did not know about..
    19 Jun 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    I went back & saved to file the past blogs. Anyone happen to save this last one 11?
    19 Jun 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Wednesday, June 19, 7:01 AM ET
    MBA Mortgage Applications: -3.3% vs. +5.0% last week."

     

    So I guess the thought that people are running to buy homes isn't true now..
    19 Jun 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Please! These stats vary wildly week to week.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/l72...
    19 Jun 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    When someone posts that people are running around buying homes because prices are increasing then I point out that this might not be the case you have an issue with it?

     

    Please...Stats work both ways!!
    19 Jun 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I am merely pointing out the one-week mortgage applications are meaningless, as an indicator of anything. If you wish to challenge that home sales are increasing or why, then you should rely on some other rationale.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Tack and IT: Please go to the Calculated Risk blog which is very good and you can see a long term chart of the MBA refinance applications index and the MBA purchase Index:

     

    http://bit.ly/KwO5iy

     

    The author also notes that the AIA billing index, a forward indicator for new construction, made a sharp rebound in May.

     

    The 15 and 30 year mortgage rates are moving up but are still at extremely low rates by historical standards:

     

    30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
    http://bit.ly/13yhuXu
    19 Jun 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mortgage applications aren't an indicator of buying? I fully understand they vary week to week. So lets see if this trend continues. But to dismiss this info is up to you.

     

    I am merely pointing out they did not meet expectations. My rationale might not agree with yours. Which is fine.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    IT: MBA has a composite index of all mortgage applications.The master index is then divided into refinances of existing mortgages which I view as extremely important and new purchase applications that are tied to existing and new home purchases. The Calculated Risk blog shows charts of both components:

     

    http://bit.ly/11nKXC8

     

    My father was a homebuilder. There were always periods where less well capitalized builders went bankrupt due to a collapse in new home purchases usually caused by a recession. I remember him telling me in 1974 that he quit housing construction starts altogether and only finished the ones that were past the foundation stage, in order to fight another day.

     

    The downturn would not last very long and new home construction along with automobile sales would help left the economy back into the growth track.

     

    Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started
    http://bit.ly/HUzjHu

     

    This last recession is different. It was caused in part the improvident extension of credit that fueled an unsustainable increase in home prices, aptly described in one documentary as "if you had a pulse, you got a loan".

     

    Dateline NBC:
    http://bit.ly/12Kzevb

     

    One by product was an increase in new home construction to meet that artificial and unsustainable demand for housing.

     

    This long term chart shows a significant and abnormal pick up in new home sales in that 2002-2007 period, following by the inevitable catastrophe:

     

    http://bit.ly/Waa4D4

     

    The rise in the MBA purchase index also reflects that unusual activity between 2002-2007, as shown in the chart previously referenced that can be found at the Calculated Risk blog site.

     

    It will simply take time for new home construction to make a meaningful contribution to the recovery due to what happened in 2002-2007, but economic activity related to that construction will pick up in the coming years just to meet new household formation which is starting to increase. Another trend is that a lot of the housing stock built during the bubble is being destroyed due to the conditions of the property after foreclosure. About 600 homes a year are being bulldozed just in Cleveland.
    19 Jun 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Thanks for all the links !!
    19 Jun 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    Ooops, all the posts gone, no survivors.
    See what happens when you don't follow the rules IT.
    I think this will have to go on your permanent record!!
    19 Jun 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Yup..i need to learn all the rules here.. Anyway anyone change their mind on what BB says today??
    19 Jun 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    Well you would expect problems with a blog titled "Chapter 11 " wouldn't you ? LOL
    19 Jun 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    I just went back and changed every instblog description so this didn't get legs !!

     

    Pretty sad that in a blog you cannot use Capitol letters ..Oh well.. Not even sure what was discussed here anyway!!

     

    Moving on !!
    19 Jun 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Everyone:

     

    Please feel free to join as we got a question from CoinsK on Chapter 4 of this blog.

     

    -----------------
    @ IT or anyone that wishes to respond
    I have been debating with some anti Gold posters on Robt. Wagners hit piece on Peter Schiff. Here's the simple statement I made. I can't believe the disingenuous reply's .The posters there don't want to acknowledge that some people lost 1/2 or more of their pension and or 401k's after a lifetime of saving,all in the 2008 crash.What am I missing ?
    The stock market does not let you win if you start with $100,000 at 14K DOW and then it goes to 7K and then back to 14 K does it ?Wouldn't you be be a net loser. When you do the math what do you end up with ?
    ----------------------...

     

    CoinsK: I am one of those guys (with retired aviator) that responded to you.

     

    First of all, I already explained to you (many times) that I have nothing against gold. I do not like gold as an investment because it has been a terrible investment over the past 40 years. The facts are there to prove this.

     

    I (and retired aviator) also explained to you that people did not loose anything due to the 2008 market crash as the markets are higher now. If you count inflation, they could be approximately even.

     

    The problem is that you are saying that people have lost half of their savings or more due to that crash. If they kept their stocks, they did not lose anything. If they sold, well we have another story, but it is the same thing for any markets and investments. If you sell at any corrections, it is a recipe for disaster. The crash of 2008 was THE deal of a lifetime for those who were able to recognize the value of great American corporations selling for nothing. Even Warren Buffet told people that stocks were cheap at that time.

     

    Now, regarding Peter Shiff. He has been wrong on the market since the ultimate low in 2009 and all the way up. He is bear since the 2009 low! If I could suggest something to you; simply stop reading Zero Hedge.

     

    And finally, before telling me that I have zero credibility (like you did on Roberts article) you should always look at what you are doing. For now, you have been sitting on the wrong side of the fence for almost 3 years. I do not want to sound harsh but this is another fact.

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Krusty.

     

    Now its my turn to be in full agreement with you ! .. Especially regarding Mr Schiff & "zerohedge" .
    19 Jun 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    I wrote this to IT on Chapter 4
    " I would just use the DJIA index because most people who had 401K's in 2007 and got wiped out ,turning them into 201 K's in 2008 ,were mostly in Mutual Funds.And what I have noticed when you look at charts MF's are just Stock soup in these retirement accounts. They mirror the DJIA .I suppose if everything was exactly the same when the market returned to 14K from the 7 K level you could say you were even. However how many years of being in the loss column would people be willing to wait? Opportunity costs? I would think that waiting 5 years would be a terrible waste of time +money.The only way it would make sense is if a person (A retired person) that just lost 1/2 of their life savings in the paper market was bold enough to double down on the market coming back. Hoping it would go back up to where it was before they got thrashed . This could only happen of course if they had the resources available to do that. Not likely at all .Just looking for some perspective on this. Since it DID happen, the markets did lose pensioners money after a lifetime of savings was lost forever by Stock traders with no morals .Those traders were the epitome of a "Moral Hazard" I don't believe we can ignore that. Especially considering the market's are poised to do the same thing again with the DOW over 15 K."
    19 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    Krusty wrote
    "The problem is that you are saying that people have lost half of their savings or more due to that crash. If they kept their stocks, they did not lose anything. If they sold, well we have another story, but it is the same thing for any markets and investments. If you sell at any corrections, it is a recipe for disaster."

     

    The problem is not that I am "Saying it" the problem is that it happened ,on a very large scale. And to your point about "selling off"
    That's what Mutual funds did. That's my point ,Thankyou
    The biggest problem is the Opportunity Costs,and the Time lost(How do you calculate that for a 70 year old man?)
    And if you believe people's hard work and TIME aren't worth mentioning then that's on you.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Fear&Greed:

     

    :-)
    19 Jun 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    Krusty wrote:
    "And finally, before telling me that I have zero credibility (like you did on Roberts article) you should always look at what you are doing. For now, you have been sitting on the wrong side of the fence for almost 3 years. I do not want to sound harsh but this is another fact."

     

    Well you are 100% wrong,read my posts as to the real estate investments I made during that time period and re-adjust accordingly.I have sold more gold during the last 3 years because of the market highs.It's totally presumptuous on your part to assume you know what MY investments are during any period of time. you missed my activities by a mile at least.sorry you couldn't put me in a little box It won't work .I think outside the box :)
    19 Jun 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If anyone still has Chapter 11 saved maybe you can repost it?
    19 Jun 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    @ Coins K

     

    I had money in the market before 2008. I now have same money worth 9% more. Markets fluctuate. It's not like a bank account. You have to be prepared for that if you want to be investing in the market. If loss of principle as it fluctuates will be upsetting, your risk tolerance is low & you need to find other investment vehicles, such as FDIC savings accounts or CDs.

     

    It has been a poor decade for stock prices, close to same value at end as at start. However, add in dividends & it's been a good savings method. Someone posted on one of the prior chapters what the return was for the last decade when dividends are included. It was a sweet return. Also Tack posted a few chapters ago, some dividend info in his general investing advice, that is very, very compelling.

     

    Most of the time periods you dont' even need dividends to see better returns with the market than in saving account.

     

    Hope that helps answer.
    19 Jun 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    @ Curls , Thanks
    19 Jun 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We lost such a great commentary on the basketball game as well. Now that I remember!

     

    Again, not sure if any posts from Chapter 11 survived but I went back and readjusted ALL of the prior chapters as well. This way we should not lose that information which is invaluable ..imo..
    19 Jun 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    As to what Ben and the FED will say today, I may just take a nap this afternoon. Whatever is said, nothing will change what will and has to happen anyway.

     

    The only questions are how quick will it happen and how investors in various markets will react to the inevitable.

     

    QE will end.

     

    The FED will taper before ending QE.

     

    Interest rates will return to normal levels determined by investors in a free market using traditional criteria to set rates.

     

    The most important component for treasuries is the inflation forecast set by the market everyday when pricing 5, 7. 10, 20 and 30 year TIPs.

     

    I am not concerned about 4%-5% ten year treasury notes. That rate is within the benign range.

     

    The FED's statement will likely be similar to the last one which can be read here:

     

    5/1/13 Release:
    http://1.usa.gov/10zipS2

     

    Ben will add some color in his press conference, saying don't worry. ZIRP will continue even after QE ends and the FED will taper slowly based on how the economy is doing, but there will not be any clear guideline on what improvements will trigger the tapering and by how much. Why? The FED members can agree on those criteria.

     

    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
    April 30-May 1, 2013

     

    "A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/10LILk9

     

    Economic news hereafter, which is viewed as positive, will cause more bond investors to start front running the FED's actions and FED talk on tapering and ending QE. The handwriting is already on the wall.

     

    That process has already started when some investors started to realize profits when the 10 year was at 1.66%.

     

    As that rate continues to rise back to normalized levels given the inflation forecasts, more institutional investors will see their unrealized gains disappear and will join the herd in heading for the exit.
    19 Jun 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    south:

     

    "I am not concerned about 4%-5% ten year treasury notes. That rate is within the benign range. "

     

    You're right not to worry, for two reasons: 1) there's not the slightest chance of reaching these levels anytime soon, and 2) if we did reach them, it would be a sign that the economy was rip roaring along.
    19 Jun 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    ''if we did reach them, it would be a sign that the economy was rip roaring along.''

     

    Right on the money!

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This economy is far from rip roaring along !! Printing won't stop for now ...But BB will be dropping hints were not that far away,...imo.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Tack: I am anticipating an acceleration in real GDP growth from about 2% this year to 2.8% to 3% next year. It is also important that inflation expectations, reflected in the pricing of the 10 year TIP, will likely remain very subdued in the 2% to 2.3% range. That would be an overall good environment for stocks.

     

    It is not necessary for the U.S. economy to be "rip roaring" for the 10 year to be trading in the 4% to 5% range.

     

    This is a link to a chart displaying real GDP growth:
    http://bit.ly/190rYCS

     

    Data on Real GDP Growth:
    http://bit.ly/JER9ci

     

    I would look at the data at the preceding link by narrowing the time ranges to certain periods. For example, real GDP growth was moving mostly between 0 to 4%, bobbing up and down, between 1991-1996. During that period, the 10 year was moving between 5% to 7%.

     

    See Data at
    http://bit.ly/10biS0q

     

    A return to movement mostly in the 2% to 4% rate, similar to the 2004-2007 rate of growth, suggests at a minimum a 10 year treasury yield moving in the 4% to 5% range:

     

    Chart 10 year treasury:
    http://bit.ly/WGQM6i

     

    So it will not take much more GDP growth in the next three years to produce a similar result in the 10 year yield. The growth does not have to be robust to produce that result. The yield increase will likely come from the FED's cessation of intervention in the credit markets.

     

    I would agree with your general point that higher interest rates will be associated generally with better economic growth, but now we are faced with a transition from abnormally low rates to just normal market based rates due to the FED's abnormal monetary policies. So this transition period is much different than anything since the date of our birth.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Does anyone have any updated info on LYNAS? Stock falling like a rock..
    19 Jun 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    IT, Many believe we can be just fine , moving along at 2.5 - 3% GDP for a while.. I'm in that camp.. It doesn't have to rip roaring for a positive market... Agree with others here that we are very far from 4-5 % 10 yr ,for a while, and a rip roaring economy..

     

    But the markets don't look at the absolute , they just look at change , direction of change. Either good or bad.. Remember where we are coming from.
    19 Jun 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    I just find it disturbing that we basically have no trading right now, the closest range in 10 months, just waiting for someone to speak?

     

    This is a normal, strong market? Sorry I don't see it ..Maybe it is just me but this just smells bad .
    19 Jun 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Try no to get caught up "in the moment" , step back , for a LT investor this nonsense is a blip .. Think about it..

     

    Southgent suggests taking a nap , good advice,, Only the traders will be wide awake as they whipsaw their money on every word..
    I like to watch cause its better then any circus act I've ever seen, followed by the maniacal media crowd.. Luv the smell of napalm at 2:00 in the aft -- LOL
    19 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    But was it always like this in the past? Being new to handling my own portfolio I get nervous hearing a pin drop on the stock floor awaiting a speaker that seems to have a good deal of input with his QE'S then some suggest.

     

    Or is this for the speculators. I know long term it might not matter, but as I learn I try to figure all of this out!
    19 Jun 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >IT ... This is typical recession period behavior.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DRICH

     

    You know that recession door just swung open for all those who say "what recession"??

     

    Hope you stick around to answer them.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    It's always like this will likely will be forever more, especially since the advent of the Age of the Internet and its accompanying 24/7 breathless commentary. People are scared s***less about something, almost perpetually.

     

    Just a few examples, and I'm sure I've missed more than mentioned: Y2K, Enron/energy crisis, Worldcom/accounting crisis, housing bust, bank bust, EU crisis/dissolution fear, U.S. debt ceiling, U.S. ratings downgrade, U.S. default fear, Katrina, BP spill, Japan tsunami, global warming, Greece crisis, Cyprus crisis, hyperinflation, deflation, QE, Twist, QE removal, and on and on and on....

     

    The world is seemingly going to end on an almost daily basis, for one imagined reason or another. Promotion of anxiety, fear, and hysteria have become an industry, and it is especially loved by the media and short sellers, who now have almost unlimited media access, via the Internet, to further their own hysteria-generating agendas.

     

    One either has to look past all the nonsense and consider the needs and wants of a constantly-expanding global population, or one should not even bother to open up an investment account.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Understood, thanks!
    19 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Don't lose sight of the fact that we are in a different world today , technologically speaking.. Things move much faster, and there is more chatter & noise..

     

    You have to learn to tune it out.. , sure the speculators use all of this to their advantage or destruction - LOL

     

    No need to be nervous today unless you have trading positions open , that is why most of the "floor" is quiet , those guys don' want exposure long or short before he speaks..
    19 Jun 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    That says it all .... I call it the disaster du juor !! LOL
    19 Jun 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Bought (INTC) for $1 movement (up).

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Good move ! Luv that chart.. Hope the FED BS , doesn't mess up the trade 4 u
    19 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    Some of my stocks i owned but sold before the CRASH.

     

    AMD
    NXG
    Sold those and paid for a piece of real Estate in an Antique section of a commercial zoned business area. Afterwards I bought and sold Gold and Silver in a paid for building. I also sold Gold about the time that the Stock market crashed and pensioners lost as much as 60% of their retirement in the Stock market . I used cash from Gold to renovate (Cause it's just like having cash) when the economy was tanking due to the Housing bubble.Like I told Krusty ,it's not good to have ALL your money in Paper :)
    19 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    Sold AuRico at about $9 a Share in January,it's below $5 a share now. Buying MORE Gold with the paper trades. :)
    19 Jun 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    You are pretty daring to put on trades today, might get whipsawed.
    You may want to enter a limit sell order at the price you want now before the action starts.
    Good luck.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Fear&Greed:

     

    I am ready to rumble! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    Thanks for the advice. However, I never use limit, stops etc

     

    The flash crashes convinced me to never ever use that.

     

    Krustyman :-)
    19 Jun 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,,

     

    good for you , may you be the biggest shark in the tank today !!

     

    :)
    19 Jun 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    I understand Krusty.
    My idea was to put the limit sell order $1 above your entry to get your desired profit in case we get a fast spike up then down, which I have seen happen numerous times right after the meeting.
    But nevermind, sounds like you know what you're doing.
    19 Jun 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    @Tampat

     

    That's a great point. I've seen that move a lot - particularly in early mornings, not just after meetings. It's a computer kind of world, I do believe.
    19 Jun 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Fear&Greed:

     

    LOL! ;-)
    19 Jun 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    Great point as Curls says. But I have never been comfortable with any automated trades. It is curious because this is what I learned in my first book ever. Stan Weinstein was advising on moving up stops during a stock advance. But I never followed that advice. And recently with the flash crashes I would have been ejected for nothing.

     

    Your strategy is good as it prevents a trader from losing his gain.

     

    Cheers! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Too Big To Fail .....

     

    "Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) have failed to comply with parts of the $25B national mortgage settlement, according to Joseph Smith, the independent monitor appointed to oversee the process. "We still have work to do on the loan modification process," he says. His findings jibe with anecdotal reports and comes as the NY AG has signaled his intention to sue the banks over violations."

     

    Things that make you think why???
    19 Jun 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1743) | Send Message
     
    Any thoughts by anyone on the new FED chairman. My sources tell me that Bernanke is gone for certain. I think that was made clearer by the President's comments last nite.

     

    Supposedly, Yellen is the number one choice. She is supposedly pushing for more QE which may hold rates lower for even longer.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @EXTREME

     

    Whomever gets this mess will be working with a hand grenade with the pin pulled. This is like taking over a Super Bowl team and I am sure BB knows when he wanted out.

     

    The POTUS talking doesn't comfort me one bit. I don't believe anything he says anymore.. IRS, BENGAZI, NSA, DOJ, RICE etc.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Just need POTUS to go the the sidelines and let the market do it's thing.. Then again maybe he will be the catalyst for a correction with his nonsense !!
    19 Jun 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Haven't given it much thought,, very interesting !!

     

    Market will have stomach pains when we get close to that date , no matter what side of the fence you are on ..
    19 Jun 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    I posted this in a earlier chapter also,,
    I need a scorecard to keep up here -- LOL

     

    Coins,

     

    I see the point about your math regarding the market and that may indeed apply to some investors who sat back and did nothing during that timeframe. Worse yet there are those that sold out at the lows and are now back to work because their lifetime savings were lost and they never allowed themselves the opportunity to get it back with this rebound.

     

    However, without being a genius, there are those that sold some positions when things got ugly raised some cash , then nibbled on the way back up.
    Believe me those folks are definitely ahead here. I had clients that bought (GE) @ 6 . (INTC) @ 12. the list goes on
    I'm not talking about being a perfect market timer either.. Just some common sense.

     

    What it does say is that ALL investments need to be monitored and emotions need to be left at the door, Its not EZ , it comes with experience , some have a natural gift or sense , I'm not one of those gifted , but I had mentors that beat certain principles into me.. saved my personal portfolio and assisted others to get thru that period.

     

    The PM markets are not immune from giving back their entire gains either... No market is.. There are many that say we might just be headed in that direction. So one also has to be cautious and leave emotion out of their decisions..
    Best of luck

     

    .
    19 Jun 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    @F&G Trader Thanks for the thoughtful reply
    19 Jun 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1743) | Send Message
     
    "So one has to be cautious and leave emotion out of their decisions"

     

    Good advice! I learned in 87 I did not have the tolerance to have my entire portfolio invested in Buy and Hold. I came up with a timing technique that has "saved and made" money for me. Back then I simply said if the market falls more than 10% from it's 52 wk hi, I went to cash and vice versa. Used no load mutual funds to hold trading cost down and it worked well for a long time. Now with computers you can look at all kinds of timing formulas.

     

    I backtested the Dow back to 1900 using a 200 day average on a monthly basis and it outperformed the market. Mebane Faber did a similar thing in "The Ivy Portfolios". Avoiding bear markets has been crucial to my performance. I underperform in strong bull markets because I hold multiple asset classes but I do well when the bear rolls around. Lost 12% in 2008 and very little in 2000. Recouped very quickly when the market turned in 2009.

     

    I also have a number of investments that I consider buy and hold but it is not and never will be the majority of my portfolio.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    extremebanker,

     

    Thanks,, did u have to bring up '87 - ouch -- LOL

     

    Your portfolio management seems to have served you well. Well stated advice..
    19 Jun 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    extreme,

     

    You mention you sold if you get a drop of 10% from the high.
    Thats the easy part.
    How did you determine when to get back in?
    19 Jun 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1743) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    The same rule applied. If the market moved back to where it was within 90% of its 52 wk hi I bought back in. Caused me to have a few false alarms but with no load funds these false alarms didn't cause a lot of damage. In other words, I wanted to stay in the market all of the time except when we were having a major correction greater than 10%.

     

    Computers and the internet had not been invented. I wanted something that didn't take a lot of time either.

     

    Buy and hold puts 100% of your investment at risk. Using this timing technique I basically had 10% of my money at risk.
    19 Jun 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    extreme:

     

    Your "system" sounds like a sure bet for either outright losses or under-performance. Selling out on downdrafts only makes sense, if at all, if one gets out very early (much tighter than 10% drops) and has conviction and quick fingers to get back in at lower, not higher, average costs. For somebody that professes to want to be in the market "all the time" it only makes sense to add trading to the strategy if one can turn the trades into a profitable enterprise. Selling in fear, after a 10% drop, then buying back when one "feels better" after a partial recovery just assures that ones average basis is always rising and profits are diminished.

     

    Also, militating against the 10% trigger point is that bull markets can routinely have 10% corrections, but often not much more, so your trigger point greatly increase the probability of selling at or near a bottom. At 10% drops, it would be far better to add shares than to sell and buy higher.

     

    Lastly, just remember this:

     

    It's always impossible to predict the direction of the market, whether today, tomorrow or next month. Anyone who wishes to remain "long" over extended time is, by definition, a believer in the eventual uptrend in markets. So, no matter at what time one is holding positions --since one cannot know which way the market will go in the short term -- the only goal of trading should be to lower one's average cost of holdings. If the trading cannot accomplish that, then it serves no useful purpose.
    19 Jun 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1743) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    Thank you for your comment. I am sure you won't since you already know all the answers but I would encourage you to run your own test. To further limit the benefit, only change positions on the first day of the month. That way you only need monthly data which is available from the FED. It is not a complicated excel program.

     

    That being said, the benefit of such a "system" as you call it is from risk management not from performance improvment although it does improve performance. Time out of the market reduces risk. When the real bear markets arrive you do buy back in at lower prices. Some years you do lose performance.

     

    I would recommend the book "The Ivy Portfolio" which discusses a lot of these topics however, I am sure you will not read it.

     

    I never try to predict the market but the market is always telling a story. I simply react to what it is doing.

     

    Good luck to you and yours!
    19 Jun 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    This was a good read !! Thanks..
    19 Jun 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    Notrub,

     

    Interesting article, thanks for posting the link.
    19 Jun 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Notrub:

     

    Interesting. And welcome to IT's blog. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (6616) | Send Message
     
    Back on board.

     

    Thank you, IT, for your link to the updated Chapter. I appreciate it.

     

    Heat force game 7. Game 6 was fantastic.
    Too bad they don't start earlier so younger viewers could watch until the end. (12:15am last night/this morning)

     

    Where is Jon Corzine and is he getting his resume ready for President Obama?

     

    Have a great day everyone.
    19 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    Welcome.. Yes, it was a great game yesterday !!
    19 Jun 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Everyone:

     

    Natgas seems ready to turn up on a weekly chart.

     

    Just sayin. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    @Krusty

     

    You've said it enough - now I have to bite! - which natural gas comp are you going with?

     

    @IT

     

    I remember what started off the original Chapt 11. The link to Eric Parnell's article on QE:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jun 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Thanks for that article...As we can see no change as of yet ! The FED keeps the printing presses going and left the door open for additional printing if needed.

     

    I am sure all our Pros will lend us their take on today at some point as well..

     

    So why the market selloff in stocks, bonds, and gold, ? I guess just a normal non event trading day .. I have a lot to learn for sure.

     

    This just gets confusing unless the language has some hidden items not discussed yet.. Profit taking today doesn't seem to be the reason as some talking heads are suggesting. Or is it?

     

    Gonna play that Abbot and Costello video again..

     

    Ok, Folks the floor is yours !! Thoughts if any..
    19 Jun 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    IIRC, the full text of the Fed policy statements gets released tomorrow, Thur. This lets us know what all the other Fed-heads think as well.
    There may be further reaction based on that.
    19 Jun 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,
    Agreed, the statements will be chopped, diced , sliced , parsed, regurgitated then repeated. Nothing has changed, we are in that trading range I mentioned earlier,and until there is a break one way or another, just expect more volatility.
    19 Jun 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    All this hullabaloo about QE reminds me of the anxiety and predictions of doom that were tossed about, even after TARP, related to bank loan assets and home REO's on their books. The "cw" was that these would "bury" the banks in an avalanche. What happened, instead, -- and not the least to my surprise -- was that over time the banks gradually wrote off various bad debts, gradually foreclosed and resold homes, and, then, as time went by, mortgage paper and home values started to increase, further ameliorating their on-book losses.

     

    Now, everyone seems convinced that the absence of QE is some harbinger of doom. QE is responsible, apparently, for every automobile sold, home bought, share price rise, even the morning coffee being hot, it seems. This belief is embedded, despite the fact the QE has been pouring into excess reserves, not getting into monetary circulation through any great increase in loan originations.

     

    So, instead of QE's tapering, or even outright disappearance, causing some form of illiquidity or economic contraction, it's absence will have little noticeable effect beyond all the initial hysteria and similar predictions of doom it will engender. And, it won't have much direct effect on interest rates, either, as these will be a function of demand, not changes in liquidity. We're only going significantly higher in interest rates if the economy heats up, which could hardly be viewed as a bad thing.

     

    Like bank bad debts, QE will disappear, slowly, like the Cheshire Cat, leaving only the grin behind.
    19 Jun 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    I am right beside you when it comes to the "hysteria" that is advocated on what is trumpeted on the "disaster of the day". Most forget that things do have a way of working out, just that most can't even perceive how that can happen. Your example of the banks is a perfect reminder of this.

     

    I'm not buying into the end of QE as being a disaster. Your assessment of that situation is excellent and one that I agree with. ..
    I respect all of the opinions and notions that are being professed on QE . These arguments appear compelling, but just as we have witnessed in all of the "black Swan" situations that have come and gone , those compelling arguments for doom were wrong and greatly exaggerated.. We are near all time highs.

     

    Surely there will be market volatility, as we approach the end of QE , but it just may be time to sit back, take inventory and take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves.
    19 Jun 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    What it reminds me of the most is Y2K...:o)
    19 Jun 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    To me QE'S are a lot different then almost all the *events* posted here imo. Y2K was a fear, as were others. QE'S are printing money, FEDS balance sheets blowing up, no plan to unravel, no end in sight as I do not believe this can actually end with the FED saying we *MIGHT* buy more if needed.

     

    But what I did not hear much talk about was BB TELLING Congress to do something. That something may not be doable. Hence BB is rendered helpless if Congress doesn't pitch in...This isn't a computer glitch scare, it is much worse and I even feel more concerned now that they don't know how to end this without pain. Severe pain I might add. Doing this slowly might just be a dream.

     

    We shall see but one day doesn't make a market either. I am just not confident after hearing him speak. Hell, he needed *water* and his voice was cracking as he read his speech. Not sounding to positive on what he was saying either.

     

    That last 90 minutes of trading has some merit to it ! Clearly the *smart* ones did not like something or a few something's. That is why I think we had all things selling off !

     

    The timetable was just fluff and wishes at this point. No clear plan that will work. Not sure this will just go away either. This isn't Cyprus, or anything like that !
    19 Jun 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Stop hyperventilating over Bernanke's speech and think things through. It's all the overreactive behavior that costs so many people money.

     

    QE is not "printing money" because money only gets created when loans are made, not when reserves are increased. And, balance sheets don't have to be contracted, now, or ever, unless the Fed so chooses.

     

    Consider, for example, that QE has been pouring into excess reserves, not getting into circulation or thereby "stimulating" the economy. In fact, that's been a constant recent refrain, i.e., "he's pushing on a string! QE is useless! It's failed. Etc."

     

    Now, mostly the same folks, who offered those criticisms, suddenly decide that QE has been holding up the whole world and that any diminution in it will spell instant doom. This is pure silliness, as the markets often exhibit. In fact, if it isn't doing anything -- and it hasn't been, of late, as it's piled into those excess reserves -- how is stopping the placement of funds into excess reserves going to have any real-world effect? Answer: it's not (other than the usual short-term hysteria).

     

    Interest rates will only come under pressure if borrowing demand increases, and borrowing demand will only increase if the economy gets more energized. All of that would be good, not bad.

     

    And, what is it that you propose Congress should be doing? The very last thing we need right now is for Congress to lift a finger, start some idiotic vote-pandering program or insert itself into this situation in any manner. Let them investigate the the NSA, instead.

     

    Of course, nobody is paying the slightest attention to the facts, just hitting the sell button and diving under their beds. As someone else asked, "how can stocks, bonds and gold all sell off at the same time," as if cash is suddenly in short supply and is the favored class? Completely nuts. And, it won't last, either.

     

    If rates go up the economy and equities will be rising in tandem; if they don't, then all those oversold yield issues will be a particular bargain.

     

    Yes, it will turn out to be "Cyprus," in fact, a tempest over nothing.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    The FED has been printing money for USG since 1920. When it was originally set up in 1913 the FED was not allowed by law to print more than USG held in gold and silver. Then along came WW I. After it was over USG was in over their head. And, despite the law W. Wilson had them print money to cover the debt. It has been a down hill battle ever since. Roosevelt and a hand picked Supreme Court convoluted the process even further. Going so far as to confiscate gold. Go back and look at what the "Federal Reserve Notes" we have now used to look like. The last change change to the "notes" was by Kennedy when they put on the notes "This note is legal tender for all debts public and private" making them the de facto "money" for all persons, companies, and governments in the US and took on the look they have today essentially backed by nothing. The original law that they were back by 1 gold or 5 silver ounces the exchange rate set by congress. Then after the gold confiscation by silver, thus Silver Certificates, because it was illegal to own gold. Then comes Nixon and removes the USG from the gold peg. Because they could not redeem them any more for gold, mainly at the time to France.
    A little history:
    http://bit.ly/11Mw4ov
    As I said in another post. The FED's job since day one has been to be the bank of last resort for USG. THAT has never changed. Even if they do away with everything they have instituted since 2008 they will still print money. They only thing that will ever change that is if the debt of USG can be serviced by the revenues to USG.

     

    Soooo, all of this with the FED is just a side show to me. Just like all the drama with Y2K.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    But doesn't all this creation of money have an inflationary effect one day on the dollar? Does it render fiat money less valuable to have? These are questions I have never gotten an answer I accept yet to be honest.

     

    If we are in a deflationary period, do they just keep printing forever? This black swan event can happen. I just don't see an end to this yet and if this was the answer to all recessions and depressions I believe someone would have tried it already.

     

    Clearly people got spooked today and I would like to know besides hysteria what it was. I can be way off base here but the PM'S I get have others that do not want to post asking these same questions.

     

    You may be 100% correct. I hope you are for all of us. I might also miss out on a great buying opportunity. I did not after 2008/9 as I did buy some stocks back then and sold for a nice profit as well.

     

    Thanks for the information, I am trying like quite a few of us to suck it all in and make sense of it. I just don't care for people talking down to us ..
    19 Jun 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Notrub made the Y2k comparison, but thats ok, i understand what he meant and will try to respond.. You mentioned "no plan to unravel" '
    That's the common belief out there mostly from folks that don' t agree with the Fed . Using Tack's "bank " example from his statement above, I never heard anyone talking about how they were going to get out from under in that timeframe, all i heard was the fianacial system is doomed, etc. As he stated they did get out and I will add they are on the cusp of a tremendous earnings turnaround.

     

    I hear the same thing every day, they (Fed) have no plan , there is no plan, and when QE ends the market will revisit the lows. I take the approach that there can and will be a solution , a plan ,a gradual exit, as things evolve. I'm not suggesting it will be pretty but IMHO its certainly not the "end" as people suggest.
    So as in the bank example this to will pass.

     

    One thing we can all agree on because its fact , we have never been down this road before. So as I mentioned yesterday , no one knows exactly how this will end. In the meantime, play the cards that are dealt. I've been fortunate to do that since QE inception.

     

    IMHO today nothing changed, we will stay the course on ZIRP. and fed policy will revolve around the health of the economy.

     

    The last 90 min was sheer hysteria as Tack mentioned. If it continues , IMO it wil present an opportunity.

     

    This surely can be like Y2 , in the sense that when it came to that magic moment at 12:00 , computers worked, sun came up next day and calamity was not the order of the day. Might that be a possibility. ?
    19 Jun 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Look at all the money that was printed during the great depression. Did it have an effect? I will let you read the history and draw your own conclusions.

     

    While you are at it read about USG's debt after WW II. Not too far from where we are now. What is different is the US was a net creditor in 1945, now we are a net debtor nation. I say that because during my life time the people as well as the government have been on a borrowing spree. A lot of people have woken up since 2008. I did. I have no debt. And, I am not saying that to be smug. I was bankrupt in 2000. I am just pointing out that If we are saving then we are no longer 70% of the economy the way the rules are set up right now. I would go so far as to say that if you are a saver now and don't believe in taking on debt the USG looks at you as unpatriotic...:o) My credit rating is 0, because I don't borrow money.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Allow me to comment further, in an attempt to clear up what I sense is an error in thinking about what the Fed must or will do.

     

    It seems like many people think the choices for the Fed are binary, i.e., either the Fed keeps generating QE, making the balance sheet bigger, or the Fed must reduce QE, making the balance sheet smaller. But, that's where (as the Brits say) they make their "bloomer." The balance sheet of existing QE, i.e., all the bank reserves and excess reserves, doesn't get a single dollar smaller if the Fed stops QE entirely tomorrow morning. That would only occur if the Fed, in addition to stopping further QE, also started liquidating holdings. But, there's no rhyme or reason why the Fed must or will sell assets.

     

    Hence, the stoppage of QE alters existing liquidity not at all. And, that's why all the hysterical handwringing over "QE tapering" is completely ill conceived.

     

    I wrote in another thread an analogy for TARP and QE, as I envisioned it. To repeat, the nation's credit was like a huge swimming pool that cracked and sprung a massive leak in 2008. The Fed applied a patch (TARP) and gradually refilled the pool (QE), but now, the pool is entirely full and the water from the fill hose is sloshing over the side (Excess Reserves). The Fed can turn off the tap, and the pool will still remain completely full and safe for swimming, too. They're not planning to remove any water.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I am not saying were doomed at all. I am just trying to figure out if this is a buying opportunity NOW, or do we wait. You are correct as most times people do irrational things, but is the irrational part over with?

     

    As you know some want to invest to earn an income stream and are looking for the right time to enter. Like that women I posted about who doesn't even know who BB is. But doesn't mean she can't invest in the markets. You have workers who have 401k's and they are janitors..

     

    My point is , and I am probably wrong, is this time were traveling down a road not traveled before imo. Now call me foolish as it may just look like an untraveled road.

     

    But I think this is different then just the sun coming out, don't you?
    19 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    That's just it . Our money printed now is being done by everyone. So what advantage do we have?A race to the bottom ? Germany tried this in the 30's and look what happened. I also have no debt, but what I buy I buy on a cc to keep my credit score high. Pay my bills in full, and use those points to pay airline tickets.

     

    But saving isn't always a good move either as you pointed out. Our money system works with borrowers and our fractional reserve system.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Next, I am NOT trying to imply that nothing "bad" will not come out of all of this. Something bad has already happened. In all honesty, the country and people still have not "recovered" from the Dotcom bubble bursting.

     

    Just go back and look at the stock prices at the highs before the bust. A LOT of stock still have not recovered their highs from then. A LOT of companies don't even exist any more from then.

     

    Add that to what was lost in 2008-2009. Since 2000 the US middle class has been in a downward spiral. Wages have not kept up with inflation. And, everyone that works KNOWS this.

     

    I truly believe the events leading up to 2008 were a LOT like the events leading up to 1929. But, so far we haven't gone into depression. But, I don't think we have "recovered" either. I will give credit where credit is due. Things could be a LOT worse right now than they are. Even if I don't like the way they are doing it.

     

    That is why I said in a previous post I don't rule out a depression. I haven't seen much improvement for the every day guy/gal just trying to make it and take care of their family, yet.

     

    Lastly, And I'll shut up. I do not believe that what happens in the markets is a direct reflection of what is going on with people. From my observation they are two completely different worlds.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Notrub,

     

    I believe you represent the change that has taken place in households all over the country.. That change from where we were in 2008 , is another reason that will help improve the overall economy as we move forward..
    19 Jun 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Mine included! A divorce years ago set me back a ton, then putting a kid through College didn't help financially. Top that off with a car accident that made me lose my business of 20 years !!

     

    Of course I never saved for that rainy day when I was young like were all suppose to do. So as someone said to me we play the hand were dealt. Now I am playing catch up in a game I am not sure you can catch up in ..

     

    And I needed a poster to tell me *Interesting Times* is a Chinese Jinx??
    LOL
    19 Jun 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Understand your concerns. And don't make light of how things seem or are percieved .

     

    I cant say for sure , (nobody can) if the hysteria will continue and the right time to jump in here. All i can say is Its time to be watchful , not fearful and let's see what the markets tell us going forward,

     

    For what ts worth , i will share my thoughts and actions as we move forward...

     

    One thing i forgot to mention earlier, the most important thing we need to keep an eye on is the upcoming earnings reports. That wil be the true measure if we can go higher from here or take a step back.

     

    I think u can relate to this.. I mentioned to my wife a few minutes ago that there was plenty of activity and volatility in the markets today,
    She replied- did we make money ? - I answered - No
    Her reply - then i don t need to hear about activity unless we made money ! - my reply - whats for dinner ?

     

    Those Italians can be a tough crowd. !! LOL
    19 Jun 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    I agree F&G. I set a baseline for my watchlist stock prices on 22MAY. The day all the gyrations started. Every day like today I go back and see where things stand. I would love to see a 25% pull back from 22MAY. But, we are far that right now.

     

    I was afraid with the gains made Monday and Tuesday we were headed back to things as usual. So I just keep watching the VIX (this measures the volatility in the market) and the % price drop. Still just doing my monthly routine and watching.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    "my reply - whats for dinner ?"

     

    Like I tell my friends with my chest out far. I always have the last words with my wife !! lol
    19 Jun 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    LOL F&G,
    It is the same with my wife. Every time she hears about the market going down triple digits she wants me to just give her cash to stash away. I had to agree to open a savings account and put 6 months worth of expenses in it, no matter what the interest rate was, for her to agree to let me do my investing.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    "I am just trying to figure out if this is a buying opportunity NOW, or do we wait."

     

    IT,

     

    The small down move to this point is nothing. Major indexes are still above the 50 day MA which has been supported since last Dec.
    This so far is nothing but a blip and while there are some things that are down 10-20%, like mREITS and such, overall the market is just bouncing around. If the 50 MA holds and the market goes up to new highs, well, there ya go.

     

    A break of the 50 MA by the indexes would likely send the markets lower and maybe down to test the 200 day MA. Now that might be a pretty decent buying opportunity and for the stocks I'm watching for IRA purchases, thats what I'm waiting for.

     

    A break below the 200 day MA makes things more dicey and I would again be on hold from buying until things shake out and it becomes more clear whats up, IMO.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Notrub,
    I like your style and approach,, used May 22 also,, but only looking for 10% or maybe a bit more to put some fear back into us-- LOL

     

    If we get down to 1550 On S & P , and get a negativity spike from media that should scare the heck out of most..

     

    Same here , watching ,listening trying best to be patient..
    19 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    "I am not saying were doomed at all."

     

    IT,

     

    We ARE doomed, its just a matter of when.
    Next year, 5 years, whenever, you can't escape it.
    Doom is coming.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    I should have qualified that by saying that maybe this is the start of a correction. Not just today's action. Just been a long day waking up to see a blog disappear didn't help !

     

    Now I need a nap.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    So you don't buy this QE ENDING stuff ? Not on board with a safe landing either?
    19 Jun 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Just to put into perspective. Monday and Tuesday pretty much made up last weeks losses. When the drop stated after Benanke's speech I checked the VIX and it had hardly moved. So for me today is pretty much a non event.

     

    I think SG explained it a lot better. And, as usual had the links to back it up. Plus, as usual, a wonderful education on using the VIX.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Were all here to learn..
    19 Jun 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I disagree with your second sentence. What Notrub said in his closing paragraph starting with "Lastly..." is absolutely correct.

     

    The average family is hurting. Going from terrible to bad is not something I can get too excited about, bad is bad even if its better than terrible.

     

    Unless or until unemployment really improves, and I dont mean as measured by the ridiculously manipulated govt stats and the 6.5% goal nonsense, and until wages stop stagnating and/or declining, "things" will stay bad and won't move up to good.

     

    Many people think the worst is behind us because we have gone from bad to less bad, though still bad.
    Could things get worse than they are now?
    Of course.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,,

     

    I wont disagree that the avg family is hurting, but going from terrible to bad is something to get excited about in the context of the markets,and one of the reasons the markets are where they are..

     

    While we may all "feel" for a relative or friend that is still hurting, from a market perspective the fact is that household balance sheets are vastly improved since 2008. That sea change along with other macro factors are the components that can take market higher over time..

     

    you stated it - from terrible to bad, if u believe , then the next step is "not too bad" then "ok" than " pretty good". It takes lot of time given this crisis we all went thru..

     

    Things can always deteriorate form here , but i'm not a believer of that sceanrio at this point in time..
    What would u have said to me in '09 if i told u S & P 1650 in '13 ... Please think about it ... It happened.. Now tell me why after some turbulence we cant improve more and go higher..
    19 Jun 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I agree with you about the markets improvement as its obvious, but it is disengaged from economic reality.
    Of course things can get better and hopefully they will.
    But hoping they do doesn't mean they will, its possible but I'm skeptical.
    20 Jun 2013, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    You put your right foot in, you take your right foot out, you put your right foot in & shake it all about.

     

    ...that's what the charts are all about (look like today...)
    19 Jun 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok Folks

     

    Explain to me how you have bonds, stocks, gold , and silver all sell off at the same time??

     

    Is cash the best place to be? Did I miss something ? Rational is one thing. But this has me stumped..
    19 Jun 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    One word: hysteria.

     

    Anybody with an ounce of sense is turning on their stock screening programs about now.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Anybody with an ounce of sense" Do you really need to use a tone of sarcasm? Really?

     

    Please tone it down some. I want posters to be comfortable and that will not bring more out to ask questions..

     

    If you feel this is a great buying opportunity, and you may be right, just choose your words a little better. I would appreciate it .

     

    Explain the Hysteria as well if you would not mind. What hysteria?? This way all can learn something from your experience. What should we be looking to buy ?

     

    Thanks.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    That is exactly what I have been doing Tack...:o)
    19 Jun 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14101) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Well, your lead-in question sums it up. You asked how it could make sense for all classes of assets to suddenly be sold and the dollar suddenly be king. Well, I tried in more than one post explain why QE is not a big deal and therefore will have little direct impact on rates or the economy. One can accept that logic or not.

     

    As for things to buy, everything is going on sale, apparently, so one must decide which types of assets represent the best bargains. If one believe the economy will advance, then equities which the market deems least susceptible to interest-rate issues will perform best. Even among yield-related issues, I'd expect BDC's, realty funds, convertible-bond funds and floating-rate bond funds to fare best in a growth scenario.

     

    Now, if one expects the economy to decline or stall, then all the heavily-sold-off fixed-rate bond issues, like MREITs, corporate bond funds, munis and Treasuries to rebound.

     

    One has to decide between these scenarios or hedge by choosing some of each. The good news is that the market has made those choices less critical because it's sold off everything. If it sells off more, the choices will get even easier, and the discounts to value with be greater.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    That I appreciate as we can learn from it. I am all for a value investment. I read years ago Grahams book and believe in Buffets long term strategy as well.

     

    So maybe the noise just gets kicked up a notch. Like I say in my blog I will *man up* if I am wrong. Always willing to learn from those with experience. That is why I do appreciate the explanations and suggestions. Then it is up to each one to decide what best suits them.

     

    Thanks for breaking it down. You are on a way higher level then most of those who follow and won't post. I am still a novice at this yet I will air my dirty laundry to better myself. If you find some gems feel free to let us know.

     

    Thanks!
    19 Jun 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2832) | Send Message
     
    That seems to be the right question to ask IT .Recently the answer for that was "Liquidity".I don't think that's the issue though. The commodities got killed overnight. That's not because of liquidity.It's by design.
    20 Jun 2013, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    I bought my PM'S years ago waiting for the day that those QE'S would end. Then I expected a sell off in the metals as well. Just look back at 2008/9. However what bounced back the fastest.

     

    The metals, and I expect that to happen here as well. I am not buying a pricing in of the market as some have suggested. Now the stock market is way different as pricing in what will be coming like a freight train !! imo
    20 Jun 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Are you are short on gold?

     

    Krustyman
    20 Jun 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    No, my position in physical was bought a long time ago and I have my drones protecting it !!

     

    I am well in the green btw..
    20 Jun 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    Re natgas: I am not sure the stock I have would be good for you. :-)

     

    Corridor Resources (CDH) in Canada. They have excellent properties and the chart looks amazing to me. Almost no volume when consolidating but the volume was really strong when it broke out from a 17-month base. Bought the stock at $1.02 when it corrected recently.

     

    Due diligence required. ;-)

     

    Krustyman

     

    Ps: why am I not scared with the bumpy market we have today? :-)
    19 Jun 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,
    Maybe because nothing has really changed????
    19 Jun 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Notrub:

     

    Something has changed. We will have better deals. :-)

     

    Krustyman
    19 Jun 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    Krusty :-)

     

    "Corridor Resources (CDH) in Canada." Hum. Well now I know your NGas stock'd'choice. At least I can enjoy a pretty chart & take a peek.

     

    The ride today was purely for checking out the scenery on the way down & up & all around... It was reactive selling, nothing to do with actual economic actions.
    19 Jun 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maybe this article should be read as I have mentioned the POTUS talk about BB in a recent post.

     

    http://bit.ly/12L6arm

     

    Everyone can spin it anyway you'd like. But I think it is at least worth reading!!

     

    "The more Bernanke talked, the more stocks fell and Treasury's rose. While the chairman took pains to indicate the Fed isn't changing policy, the markets clearly see less stimulus ahead, sending the Dow down 200 and pushing 10-year Treasury yields to 15-month highs. High-yielding dividend stocks led decliners, with telecoms and utilities posting respective drops of 2.7% and 2.3%"

     

    You folks might be right about buying opportunities here, but I am not ready yet !
    19 Jun 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    So did anything happen today?

     

    What do we know now that was unknown this morning?

     

    QE will end.

     

    The Fed will taper asset purchases before ending them.

     

    Intermediate and long term interest rates will rise over the next two years to normal levels based on inflation expectations. Bond investors will suffer losses as yields rise.

     

    Normal treasury rates are based primarily on current inflation expectations and those expectations are currently benign for the economy.

     

    Interest rates are not normally influenced by the FED buying $45B in treasury securities every month but by investors using time tested and standard criteria for setting rates.

     

    I would note that there was one important change in the FED statement compared to the last one. The FED now believes the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market have diminished since the Fall:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/11MwTO2

     

    That statement is consistent with my views that tapering will begin later this year and the FED is signaling that to the market with that kind of statement.

     

    The prior statement made in May was more cautious:

     

    "The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/10zipS2

     

    Importantly, the FED lowered its unemployment forecast for 2014, with the new range being 6.5% (the magic number for increasing the federal funds rate) to 6.8%, down from the May estimate of 6.7% to 7%. And the FED raised slightly its estimate of REAL GDP 2014 to 3% to 3.5% from from 2.9% to 3.4%.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/11MwTO7

     

    I still expect QE to end altogether by the 2014 second quarter and for the 10 year to hit 3.5% by June 2014 assuming the later prediction proves prescient.

     

    I am keeping the time for tapering to start as September, but the unemployment numbers will need to be "decent" later this summer for tapering to start then.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SOUTH

     

    You asked if anything new happened?

     

    YES, in my eyes I saw a completely uncomfortable BB TRYING to read a speech without his voice cracking. Now was these his words he was reading or someone else's?

     

    Drinking water was key !! Shows a person not comfortable in what they are doing or saying. After all his speeches why so uncomfortable?

     

    Just sayin do we believe what HE said, or better yet does he believe what he said??

     

    But I do feel comfortable that the sun will come up tomorrow...( checking weather right now )
    19 Jun 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    IT: Bernanke is a shy introvert, a professor uncomfortable with the spotlight and eager to return to Princeton or possibly a University presidency. I have seen him many times look uncomfortable in that kind of setting.

     

    The FED does have a problem after creating this monster known as QE. How do they kill the thing without causing even more harm? That is the pickle.

     

    Chill out, take a deep breath, sometimes it helps to go into the bathroom and howl some.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • The Last Boomer
    , contributor
    Comments (1005) | Send Message
     
    South,
    you say yourself that treasury rates are based on inflation expectations. These expectations as measured by the 10-yr breakeven have essentially cratered lately. I have trouble reconciling this with the soaring stock prices and the soaring yields. Something's got to give here. People are talking about the widowmaker trade in Japan, but the mother of all widowmakers is gonna be all those people shorting TSYs right now.
    19 Jun 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TLB

     

    WELCOME, Do you have a position as to where the stock market might end up??
    19 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Last Boomer: I would not use the word "cratered" to describe the decline in the 10 year break-even spread. Today, the break-even was 2.04% and was 2.48% on 1/2/13. That is a significant move but not a crater based on historical movements during a year.

     

    The decline has accelerated recently with the low CPI and PCE price index numbers. The FED is predicting modest increases later this year in CPI and into next year. So I would expect the number to stabilize near 2% and then trend slightly higher to 2.2% late this year.

     

    If you go back to pre-QE days, a normal 10 year rate on an average annual CPI increase of 2.04% would be at least 4%.

     

    The ten year TIP data for the 10 year goes back to January 2003.

     

    Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates
    http://1.usa.gov/OzG80h

     

    Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9

     

    Just as an example, I did these two calculations a few moments ago:

     

    10 Year TIP 1/03/07 2.38%
    10 Year Nominal 4.68%
    Average Annual Inflation: 2.3%
    Spread to Inflation=2.38%

     

    10 Year TIP 6/1/07 2.57%
    10 Year Nominal 6/1/07 4.95%
    Average Annual Inflation Forecast: 2.38
    Spread to Inflation= 2.57%

     

    You can see for every day since 1/2003 the inflation forecast embodied in the ten year TIP price and see the spread over that average annual CPI forecast in the nominal yield for that day. It is a worthwhile exercise to understand just how far yields could go just to return to normal spreads with the current inflation forecast.

     

    I would not jump to conclusions about that the trend continuing down. The last CPI showed an annual rate of 1.4%, up from the prior month's 1.1%.

     

    The Cleveland FED has a number called Median CPI that is running hotter than the CPI numbers:

     

    http://bit.ly/16MEscP

     

    As to stocks, a 10%+ correction in prices would be viewed by me as healthy and I am not concerned about such events.
    19 Jun 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    I'm thoroughly confused, like I speak a different language than the market audience.

     

    I heard "no tapering now." Also the exact same non-committal vague statement as May 22 "we'd like to taper. Economy slightly better but not enough to taper. We'll revisit this in a month, or 3."

     

    I thought it was "good news on tapering" & markets would soar.

     

    Also it's obvious Obama talked with Bernake. Whatever Bernake had in mind, isn't what Obama's happy with. Bernake goes. We're left with more uncertainty. @ IT - all that BB shakiness, I attribute to that interaction with Obama, not his feeling stressed over the economy scenario. Probably future is a slower tapering than BB wanted since BB's been hinting heavily, but this was a cautious backing off for now (in the language I speak).

     

    I'm with @IT, not ready to jump in yet. Let the nerves shake out some more.

     

    There will be more shakedowns like this intermittently until the tapering is finally underway for a while & the ceiling hasn't fallen - just maybe sunk a little as things shift around.

     

    I want the downslide correction already! So I can buy near the bottom & get back in. And go back to my buy & ignore policy. Only plus side of spending all this time on this (and getting other stuff not done), is meeting all of you.

     

    I didn't hear & really wonder why not...a question to BB of how rates this low effect everything from retirees not spending, to mood & negative reward for anyone responsible who saves. To how all that filters an effect into the economy stodgy growth.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    S&G

     

    Your description sounds right on target. It's like my view, but you backed it up with concrete numbers & quotes.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4789) | Send Message
     
    Men's Wearhouse - with Zimmer gone & shares down - to keep an eye on buying?

     

    What did well today, good for future climbs?
    - TSLA - tesla did well in spite of a recall announcement
    19 Jun 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    "I'm thoroughly confused, like I speak a different language than the market audience."

     

    Your not alone on that thought, trust me !!

     

    Now as far a BB shaking in his boots, not sure if the POTUS did it or something else. Read the article from Stuber I posted above. It made me think!
    19 Jun 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration. These are the places I check every day to keep up with what is really going on. It is has served me well ever since I used to trade currencies. Here are few different site for an alternative view of the numbers the FED uses:

     

    Real unemployment U6. This is the actual number of people not employed for whatever reason vice the number collecting unemployment benefits:
    http://bit.ly/Uhjkrl

     

    Here is the inflation rate that all of are aware of when we go about our business living our daily lives:
    https://www.aier.org/epi

     

    Dry ship index. Health of the world economy:
    http://bit.ly/JYtrJ4

     

    How crazy things really are in the market:
    http://bit.ly/nq8S4P

     

    There are actually two I check from this site Corn and copper. The two are a pretty good indicator of world health. The link is for corn, but you can look at their indexes and get copper also:
    http://bit.ly/16Lv09B

     

    And, alst but not least the US yield curves:
    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9
    19 Jun 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: I would simply use the VIX number available at YF:

     

    http://yhoo.it/103ynXD

     

    The VIX moved up only .03 today to close at 16.64, which is inconsistent with the 22.38 point decline in the S & P 500. I would call that movement in the VIX to be a non-confirmation event for the decline today.

     

    The VIX is in what I call a Stable VIX Pattern consistent with, and a predicate for longer term bullish moves in the S & P 500.

     

    Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply
    http://bit.ly/XIe6mV

     

    VIX and S & P Compared 1990 to 1997
    http://bit.ly/XIe6mR

     

    Vix Charts from 2004 2005 2006 Stable VIX Patterns Phase 1 and Phase 2
    http://bit.ly/YsaseY

     

    Mark Hulbert and the Use of the VIX as a Timing Model
    http://bit.ly/UfRZ8z

     

    The last sell signal given by Vix Asset Allocation Model was in August 2007, a Trigger Event, that caused a mandatory reduction in stock exposure and the creation of an Unstable Vix Pattern from that time until September 2012, consistent in length for the prior Unstable Vix Pattern period between October 1997 to January 2004.

     

    VIX Chart from 2007: Alerts and Triggers Major Disruption of Cyclical Stable Bull VIX Pattern
    http://bit.ly/12K50f1
    19 Jun 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Southgent,

     

    I luv your approach to the VIX and use as a tool,, I have read your links on the subject over and over & i came away with the same conclusion today - VIX movement didn't confirm the S& P drastic move down.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    F & G: I would not be surprised to see a snapback tomorrow, but I am not thinking short term anyway. I try to gaze at the Big Picture events and then work my down from that mountain top and view.

     

    Let's not forget the positive news in the Fed statement today and the better forecasts made for 2014.

     

    I would urge everyone to look at those revised forecasts before jumping out of any windows:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/11MwTO7

     

    The estimated 2014 range for REAL GDP was increased to 3% to 3.5% from 2.9% to 3.4%. Those are good numbers for a large economy.

     

    The unemployment rate forecast was reduced to a range between 6.5% to 6.5% from 6.7% to 7%.

     

    Good or bad news?

     

    There was only a very minor adjustment the top number for 2013 GDP. The forecast now is 2.3% to 2.6%. That is fine.

     

    The FED removed the statement from the May statement about being concerned about the downside risks and replaced it with a more upbeat statement.

     

    The FED is upbeat about consumer spending, labor market conditions, and housing.

     

    "Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further"

     

    The fiscal drag is a given but the FED does not seem to be overly concerned about a slowdown in the growth of federal government spending.

     

    The fact that bond owners are going to experience some pain by a return to normal rates, low by historical standards, is a problem for them. The inflation numbers will restrain their losses and are supportive for stocks.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    F & G: The Vix did confirm today's movement (6/20), rising 23.14% to close at 20.49. There was a decline from the high of 21.32 during the last few minutes of trading.

     

    In my model, it would take a spike into the high 20s for several days before the model would flash the red signal. The VIX chart from 2007 shows what Trigger Events, which are the warning signals, look like.

     

    Spikes in August and November 2007
    Historical Data YF
    http://yhoo.it/1c14WYw

     

    The whipsaw pattern of movement into the high 20s and then back below 20 continued into early 2008 with spikes again in January and March, the only multiple confirmations of a Get of Dodge signal, originally made in August 2007.
    20 Jun 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    yes i did see that spike.. and u already answered the question of what is needed to flash a warning,,

     

    Thanks
    20 Jun 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HERE'S A FIRST!! 10 HOURS AND A NEW BLOG HAS TO BE SET UP!!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I know people will answer posts here but would appreciate comments on today's speech maybe be placed in 12 if possible??
    19 Jun 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
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