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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 15.........  175 comments
    Jun 23, 2013 2:48 PM

    What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, OUR ECONOMY?

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (175)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Time for another Chapter !!!

     

    Anyone want to open ??
    23 Jun 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    Puzzlement over QE tapering:

     

    What time lag is likely between when QE tapers & that effects the stock market? Or other aspects of the economy?

     

    Actually effects, not this panic reaction effect in the minute after announcement when clearly, obviously, to the 9s, nothing was actually effected yet.
    23 Jun 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    As you can see from last week indirectly it is having an affect on all asset classes. Mostly because of all the coverage in the media.

     

    Directly I do not believe it will have much effect at all. Unless the FED loses the PR war and long term interest rates take off too fast. It is like the PR war over the sequester. Even though the sequester didn't do anything but cut back the growth of the deficit this year. The FED isn't going anywhere, they are just cutting back the purchase of bonds and MBSs. If the economy ever gets to the point that the FED extracts itself completely from the markets, they will still be buying bonds so USG can pay their debts.

     

    I worry more about the unwinding of everything the FED has bought to date, especially the derivatives like MBS (mortgage backed securities). As the banks have discovered they do not necessarily own the mortgage on the home but only a "slice" of it. Hard to foreclose if you can't get the title. If they attempt to sell it back into the markets I believe it will have a "disruptive" effect. Kind of like rising interest rates are having now. If they hold everything to maturity it will have little direct effect on the markets, but will have long term consequences for the FED and the government.

     

    The one caveat is once the FED extracts itself from the markets if the real economy is deflationary at all. Then the FED has already shown they will do whatever they have to do. I believe that is why you keep seeing the statement of 2.5% inflation in BB's statements. Add to that the "adjustments" the USG wants to do for CPI calculations, mostly to cutback on cost of living adjustments for entitlement programs, it is hard to see 2.5% inflation in the near future. I can not prove it, but, my gut tells me that the FED is going to be involved for a while to come. I just don't see the world economy supporting even 1% inflation in the US right now????
    23 Jun 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    So can you explain why the markets had the smallest range of trading that morning BEFORE BB spoke in 10 months? That had nothing to do with media coverage. That was a fact. You could hear a pin drop it was so quiet. That was not hype.

     

    Then BB spoke and all hell broke loose for 2 days. I keep reading that media coverage is much stronger now, the internet is here, but what about those quiet traders??

     

    Do they always stand around that quiet before BB speaks and if so I guess what he has to say carries some merit. If not what am I missing?

     

    Thanks.
    23 Jun 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    My question is a simple one. If the Fed was pumping 85 B into banks every month through QE ,how much of that money was actually going into the Stock market ? And if that is the case wouldn't the Stock market be a casualty of de-funding by the Fed? Any info on this ,couldn't that be the start of a Bear market after the artificial investing goes away?
    23 Jun 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    CoinsK,
    "My question is a simple one. If the Fed was pumping 85 B into banks every month through QE ,how much of that money was actually going into the Stock market ? And if that is the case wouldn't the Stock market be a casualty of de-funding by the Fed? Any info on this ,couldn't that be the start of a Bear market after the artificial investing goes away?"

     

    Coins,
    It is my understanding that:
    1) The purchase of bonds mainly helps the USG directly and the market maker banks indirectly.
    2) The purchase of MBSs helps directly Fannie, Freddy and banks get unsellable derivatives off their balance sheet. And indirectly the housing market and banks and other lending institutions such as savings and loans, credit unions.

     

    The problem seems to be that it isn't having the intended effect except in the housing industry. Mainly because most lending institutions have tightened their lending criteria and are not putting most of the 85 billion to work in the economy as loans. Thus there has been little of the expected inflation from printing the money to buy the bonds and MBSs because only a small amount of it is actually reaching the economy through loans.

     

    I know, people will say "Then why doesn't the government just do infrastructure projects instead. So that the money actually does go to work in the economy?" The answer is the USG can't print money only the FED can print money, loan it out and never have to pay anyone back. If USG did that they would have to borrow more money and pay it back with interest. Same story for State and local governments.

     

    Next "some" of that printed money has made it to the stock market in the form of loans, also known as margin. If you look at the data the markets are highly leveraged right now. Not as bad a s 2007, but it is getting up there. That is what causing the wild swings like last week. A lot of people were trying to cover their bets so they didn't get wiped out. There is a different mentality between people that are trading with leverage and those trading with no leverage (leverage=borrowed money).

     

    My personal opinion is that the markets will a lot better off in the long run without FED intervention of any kind. But, like I said in my other post I do not see that happening for the next 30 years at least (MBSs are essentially repackaged mortgages from 15 to 30 years in maturity). Because it will take that long to unwind everything they have bought to date and USG still needs bonds bought to pay the bills. In other words very unlikely in my lifetime.

     

    So, in conclusion the FED is only talking about TAPERING QE (buying fewer bonds and MBSs). As I said above, if there is any sign of deflation when they begin tapering we will be right back here talking about the same thing over QE 5, 6, 7, etc..
    Also, they haven't said anything about stopping ZIRP (the policy of buying short maturity bonds to keep interest rates low.) the program they have had going since 2008.

     

    (BTW, you can take most of what I say with a grain of salt. I am just an every day joe who reads a lot. I am not a professional or expert at anything. The main reason I started posting in this blog was to talk to myself so I could go back and reread it to see if my thoughts make sense????) Oh but I slept at a Holiday Inn last night...:oP
    23 Jun 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    "Next "some" of that printed money has made it to the stock market in the form of loans, also known as margin"

     

    Maybe you have the answer to this or someone else. I was also under the impression that the Too Big To Fail Banks were using monies that was suppose to be earmarked for lending to actually investing it for themselves. Am I correct?

     

    They are investment banks so I assumed this could be true.
    23 Jun 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    Notrub

     

    I am of the opinion that the Fed will never unwind the MBS toxic waste bonds and besides they are worthless; the only thing the Fed can do is break up the investment banks and tell them to eat the MBS
    23 Jun 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Not ... It sounds like your reading the right stuff. Nothing wrong with every day Joe's. I am a working stiff myself. No silver spoon for me ... yet.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • CKCoinsPlus
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub
    Thanks .Are we headed for a big surprise after the 2014 election cycle?
    24 Jun 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    CK,
    In all honesty my horizon right now only goes out to September after the current earnings season and the next FED meeting.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    never can tell what the market will do , but,, as u noted we have already seen some panic selling over the mere thought of tapering..
    Each to his /her own, but if I'm a LT investor , nothing has changed but emotions.. Its been stated here by many , emotions cannot be part of an investment strategy.

     

    So as in most cases with the market, when it actually starts to occur, the market , will have already priced that in (market may be attempting to do that already) and then will be looking further down the road..

     

    23 Jun 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    I have to add. I do think deflation will eventually happen. Anyone can do the numbers and see that exponential growth can not happen forever. The world if finite, eventually it gets to the point where further growth in any one thing is impossible. It is not just markets I think the same thing will happen with population.
    23 Jun 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    It does seem we have world wide over-capacity right now.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Notrub:

     

    ''The world if finite, eventually it gets to the point where further growth in any one thing is impossible.''

     

    You are raising an interesting point by saying that the world is finite. However, we are far from the saturation point IMHO. The biggest technological boom is probably upon us.

     

    From Dr. Carlota Perez's excellent book:

     

    The world has experienced five major technical-economic cycles:

     

    (1) 1771 - The First Industrial Revolution in Britain, based on mechanization of the cotton industry.

     

    (2) 1829 - The Age of Steam and Railways

     

    (3) 1875 - The Age of Steel and Electricity

     

    (4) 1908 - The Age of Oil, the Automobile, and Mass Production

     

    (5) 1971 - The Age of Information and Telecommunications

     

    Each age has followed a pattern of four phases:

     

    (1) Irruption: Invention/development of the new technological paradigm, decay of the preceding paradigm, probably in conjunction with economic stagnation and unemployment.

     

    (2) Frenzy: Rapid adoption of the new paradigm and intensive financial investment, often leading to irrational excesses and a financial bubble (tech bubble of 2000).

     

    (3) Synergy: The rationalization of the new paradigm and renewed economic expansion after a purging of the excesses of the bubble.

     

    (4) Maturity: Market saturation and the gradual exhaustion of the potential of the new technology setting the stage for the next cycle.

     

    We are on phase 3 (Synergy) IMHO. Therefore, I see a lot of growth coming. Probably the biggest economic boom ever.

     

    We can have some bumps on the road from time to time, but over the long-term that's what I see.

     

    Cheers! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,
    I agree. I do not think "saturation" will occur in my lifetime. I was just thinking out loud, again...:o)
    24 Jun 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    I've been looking at comments on other articles here on SA, and no matter what the topic or intent , most everyone interjects a comment about the Fed.. I commented quite a while ago about this FED obsession. I suggested and still do to a certain extent that the folks that have obsessed about the Fed have missed the entire rally. Looking over their shoulder or trying to gaze into a crystal ball to see the color of Ben's next shirt to get a clue on what he will say /do.. , instead of paying attention to price action, etc.. Of course, it just may have been a choice they decided to make..

     

    Certainly is a place for it in an overall macro outloook, but IMHO investors would be well served to view corporate earnings,, Increasing dividends, stronger balance sheets. When the dust settles it comes down to earnings and those facts. .

     

    Decide for yourself how much is fed induced,, (I have my views) but that is the bottom line on where stock prices are going....

     

    Everything else is "noise" & IMHO doesn't fit into an investment strategy , whether a person is in this market, contemplating getting in or siting out..........

     

    I like to keep things simple..

     

    Just an observation.....
    23 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    So then your professional opinion is that the FED had nothing to do with the stock market increase over the last 4 years.

     

    If so why did Japans stock market dramatically increase after they also essentially devalued their currency on purpose by printing money, a coincidence??
    23 Jun 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    A lot of people believe its all fed induced, I'm not one of them , to what finite degree , I don't believe anyone knows for sure. What I was trying to get across is that people missed the "Good" corporate news that has transpired.Corporate results drive the eventual prices of stocks..

     

    If one wants to assign that "good" to the fed so be it, I wont argue ,
    The proof now is that by Looking back it didn't matter what one believed in "how" it was being accomplished , the fact is it was & is being accomplished. Earnings and dividend increases don't lie they tell the story. Instead of paying attention to that ,I heard a lot of folks obsess about the fed. Ok, but looking back they were wrong.

     

    Now I'm saying if one chooses to continue with that approach , I understand , but calling it the way I see it, they will be wrong again..

     

    A simple observation. Seems to me that we have had economies in this country that have stood on their own, & My belief is that we will experience that again. For all of the negatives that are out there , (which there have always been negatives hanging over our heads) there are secular trends that are evolving now that can take the economy on a nice ride.. Most aren't recognizing that because they are watching and attributing all to the Fed.. I'm not drinking their Kool aid , mine tastes better ,because it's the same that I've had during this rally.

     

    My firm belief is that no One knows for sure how QE will end . Its uncharted territory, BUT that does not mean it will end badly. I understand the perception people have of a terrible ending , BUT IMHO it is because it is "unknown" and most assign "negative" to unknown , a simple response in human nature..

     

    Emotions have to be left at the door, the people that are reacting with emotions now will have a difficult time being successful. Not my theory , but historical fact..

     

    Regarding Japan , Im no economist , no PHD here, but from what I do know their economy cannot be compared to ours. I don't buy into fact that we have to suffer same fate or reap benefits as any other economy one wants to compare us to.. Might it be they had suffered severe economic & market declines due to the natural events they endured and they needed that stimulus to get things started again ?? For every cracker jack that will tell us Japan is doomed , we can find two other to say they are doing just fine ..

     

    I do know what is transpiring here with macro trends and corporate balance sheets to give me confidence to have conviction at this point in time to stay the course regarding U S Equities.

     

    The bottom line is adding to one's wealth ,
    One thing I do know, for those that have booked profits in this market ,there will be no asterisk next to the "profit" total that says "fed induced" on their statements .

     

    

     

    23 Jun 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Great answer. Thanks as I was confused after reading so many different angles to this. TACK made a great observation about BDC'S and how they are set up.

     

    I have read none of that info anywhere else..!!
    23 Jun 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub & others

     

    "As you can see from last week indirectly it is having an affect on all asset classes. "
    NO, tapering didn't have an affect on any asset classes! NO tapering has happened! People's ANTICIPATION is having an effect!

     

    My question is one I haven't seen raised in a single article anywhere, yet it's very key to the future.

     

    Assuming tapering will effect US economics (and assumption not agreed by all).... how long will it take to effect the economics, & the market?

     

    NOT how long will it take to effect the hoards of people making noise about it. How long till the reduced liquidity effects something (whatever that is), which effects something else (whatever that is)... which has an ACTUAL & REAL (keyword is REAL) effect on companies, their profits & therefore the market.

     

    I tell you I'm going to stop feeding you candy & you start hoarding it. That's panic reaction. But at what point after you stop getting candy sandwiches, will you lose weight? It's not when I announce it. So in a world without panic, how long does it take for tapering to ACTUALLY effect economics?
    23 Jun 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    I do not think "tapering" has any affect long or short term. I have actually read studies that the current bond and MBS buying is causing a drag effect on the economy GDP wise.

     

    What will actually affect economics in the long and short term is no purchase of bonds. No bailout of companies/banks. No preferential treatment of one company over another. No propping up of GSEs (Fanny & Freddie for example). The USG balancing the budget and paying down the national debt. Almost everyone of those things will cause some "pain" to accomplish. But, just like a bankrupt company there is light on the other side. To put it into perspective, if you were to evaluate the USG like you do a company would you still buy their bonds?

     

    I believe Detroit over the last 20 years is a good case study of where things are headed as long as those continue.
    23 Jun 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @Notrub

     

    So if USG stops buying bonds, how long does for that to start effecting the general economics & market? All other things held equal. A few weeks, months, a year?

     

    This isn't a philosophical question about the value or lack of value of QE or tapering. It's an economic question of modeling. What effects what & how long does it take.
    23 Jun 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    I just went back and read the posts you made in the other chapter. I understand now what you are trying to get at and I apologize because I think I confused that issue. In answer to what you are looking for I do not think anyone knows the time frame. There are a lot of guesses and theories. But, I have not seen anything proven yet. Which is understandable, this is all kind of uncharted territory, especially this scale.

     

    USG sells bonds to finance it's obligations. As long as I have been alive, 56 years, the Federal Reserve has bought some of those bonds by printing dollars. What has changed is that during the last bond auction cycle the Federal Reserve was the purchaser of 83% of the bonds that USG issued because there were not many others buyers interested. I could be mistaken, but, I believe that is an all time high.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    Oh good, we're communicating well now. I'm not looking for promises... just guesses. I can't figure a guess.

     

    ...USG bonds stop being bought...so how does that effect stocks?

     

    I feel like playing IT's "who's on first" Albott & Costello video right about now.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    If/when it ever gets to the point that the US government can't sell it's bonds the effect will be immediate globally.
    1) Because currently the US dollar is the global currency for carrying out trade. Which is why other countries get mad when it is devalued.
    2) If no one will buy the bonds all that is left is the Federal Reserve to step in and buy them with more printed money. Which would lead to hyperinflation. See Zimbabwe and 1930s Germany for case studies.
    3) It would lead to the US dollar not being the world trade currency. Which for a time, until something else is decided on to facilitate trade, would lead to a world wide depression until the unrestricted flow of trade between countries could resume. Some countries such as China, Russia, India and Brazil are already anticipating this as an eventuality and so have started their own trade blocks known as the BRIC countries to facilitate trade without using the US dollar.
    4) For a time until another system of exchange is developed everything currently priced in US dollars would go up in price significantly.
    5) Cyprus, Iceland, Ireland, Greece would be a good case studies in what would happen here in the US once the US dollar is no longer the world trade currency.
    6) If you study what happened in those countries you will understand that "entitlements" would no longer be an issue, to the government. Though I suspect there will be a BIG issue with the population. The only thing that the USG would concentrate on paying is debt. So a lot of government funded programs would go out the window.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    If the gvt stops buying $85 in bonds -how long- for the real money effect to trickle into the stock market?
    (Not a worry about if the US can't sell it's bonds. Just if it stops this buying of it's own bonds.)

     

    @ Fear
    So your take is that doesn't matter because by then the market will have priced in any possible real effect.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    You asked for it !!

     

    http://bit.ly/11mUQ2U

     

    It never gets old>>>>
    23 Jun 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    The market are forward looking. Things trade on what people think will happen in the future. I think what you saw last week was an aspect of that. People holding long term bonds paying 2% or less "expect" the yields to go higher so they sold out of their 2% bonds. Some people think that higher bonds yields will have an effect on stock yields and sold. Some believe that bond yields in the future will be better than stocks with less risk, so they sold. The dollar went up so commodity prices went down, so they sold. Some don't have a clue and got scared when the market made the big drop Thursday and they sold. When everything "seems" to be going down people get nervous and it just becomes a herd mentality.

     

    That is why I have my rule of selling any of my stocks that go down 10% without using a stop. I have learned that it better to just go to cash and watch where things settle out and go back and buy bargains out of the same companies I was looking at buying at higher prices anyway. I have have also learned if you develop a plan and stick to it you will come out fine in the long run no matter what the markets do. I may not ever win anything for have the fastest gains or most efficient use of my money but I sleep well at night and I don't lose a lot of money.

     

    As we were discussing a few chapters back there is a lot of fear and nervousness in the markets right now. I don't know why???? I do know a lot of people are looking for any excuse to get out and just watch what happens. Guess people are still spooked over what happened in 2008-2009????
    23 Jun 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    Dividends from ETFs - vs. from underlying stocks.

     

    Is there a difference in rate of dividends gained from an ETF, vs if you owned the stocks in the ETF? I assumed they'd be the same.

     

    Someone said there is, but can anyone elaborate?
    23 Jun 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Curls ... Why would anyone want to buy someones debt that pays .25 interest? No one ... the Fed is the buyer of last resort. Unless the USG gets it's fiscal house in order this is going to end very badly. The service on the debt is already starting to over run the budget.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/qvYMRZ

     

    http://bit.ly/16t0dO9
    23 Jun 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @BD4

     

    I'm not talking about anyone buying the bonds that the Fed already bought.

     

    I'm asking if the Fed stops buying bonds, and if that effects economics, what's the pathway & how long does that pathway take to get to the market

     

    ...While ignoring the panic reaction pathway that took less than 1 minute. The market thinks less buying will effect equities so they panic. What pathway do they think that takes, & how long for the real effect to impact?
    23 Jun 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    If no one is interested in the debt the USG issues the bid goes down and interest rates rise. Just the implication of higher rates sends shock waves through the entire system worldwide.

     

    Maybe two seconds if that ... remember this from a couple weeks ago... http://bit.ly/1a5JvsU
    23 Jun 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    That's a fantastic clear summary of what happened & why with the tapering talk & it's forward looking. Thanks.

     

    @ BD4

     

    " If no one is interested in the debt the USG issues the bid goes down and interest rates rise. " That explains a piece I hadn't been able to piece together. In my logic if no one was interested at current rates, they'd have to bring the rates down to get interest.

     

    ----

     

    ....I still have the same question. It's obviously hard to divorce the market's reaction from the question, but I'm asking scientifically, in a real way, the effect of stopping the bond buying. By what pathway & how long does it take to effect the market?

     

    USG stops buying bonds, so what happens within the economic system that eventually effects businesses & therefore the market?

     

    My guess is (from past experience in my life unrelated to finances) when this question starts making sense, I'll have hit on something important to the whole conversation. So I'm persisting :).

     

    The flip side of the question is how does bond buying help the markets, & how long does it take for the bond buying to filter through the economy in a way that effects stocks?

     

    Several people here tend to think the bond buying has nothing to do with stocks. So that's one possibility. It takes zero time because it has zero effect. The only effect is fear of rates & that whole manifestation (as described by Notrub). Is everyone here of the "it has no economic actual effect" camp?
    23 Jun 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    It seems I am doing a bad job of communicating tonight.
    Here is some reading material, hope it helps:

     

    http://bit.ly/10LPcci

     

    http://bit.ly/10LP9Nv

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://bit.ly/10LPccn

     

    http://nyti.ms/10LP9Nw

     

    I guess the point I have been trying to get across is that very low or very high interest rates have been shown to have a negative impact on the stock markets. All of the studies I have seen is that interest rates between 3 and 10% have no effect on stock prices. Where most of these guys are getting the idea that things are falling apart is because of interest rates effects on the economy. They believe that the current US economy is too weak to handle rising rates and will cause another recession. If there is another recession they reason it will have negative effect on stock prices like 2008-2009. They have come to this conclusion because of the last series of earnings reports, which weren't all that great. So that is why for almost a month bad news=good news. Finally after months of telling people it was coming BB just came right out and said that they intend to scale back purchases of bonds and MBSs. Now bad news=bad news again. The next earnings series has already begun and will run until August. Expect bad earnings to equal drops in share prices. If the earning s are bad overall expect a sell off in September after the next FED meeting. That's my take of things anyway????
    23 Jun 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    I think one thing that has you confused is the USG doesn't buy bonds it issues them. The FED buys the bonds.

     

    The treasuries are debt that the USG issues and the FED buys them. The FED is not the USG.

     

    http://bit.ly/10LPH68
    23 Jun 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    NoTrub:

     

    Thanks. That helps. So the answer in your view, is that QE has nothing to do with the economy & stocks. It has to do with the obvious, bonds. The rest is 2ndhand guessing by everyone, all worried about rates that are going up now instead of 2 years from now, only because everyone is worrying about rates going up 2 years from now. Which is why there's no time frame & nothing concrete is ever mentioned.

     

    Anyone think QE has an effect on the economy, that ultimately actually effect stocks in a real world way?

     

    This whole thing has been solidly reminding me of the rat I had in college.

     

    We moved him into the cage. His rump hit the bar & out came a pellet. From then on, this rat would walk away from the space bar, rear-end facing it. Look over his left shoulder, & charge backwards, lifting his rump & getting a solid hit on the bar. Worked every time - a pellet appeared. Of course he never did discover, that if he'd turned around and tapped with his paw, he'd have a pellet & a lot less stress to boot.
    23 Jun 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Part of the reason the zero interest rate is bad especially long term is it removes the check that interest rates give to a healthy economy. The politicians (Pol's) are prone to mischief when they can issue debt at very low rates. It removes the risk of issuing more debt. They find all kinds of things to do with zero interest rates (ZIR's) . They become venture capitalists on our dime. Look at Solyndra $535 mil Federal loans. Our congressmen also like to do insider trading on their investments and they do very well at it. So they make the loans at ZIR in our name then use insider information to make money. Nice little scam they got going isn't it.

     

    http://bit.ly/10LRgAX
    23 Jun 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    QE has an effect on the economy. It has been the major tool used every time the Federal Reserve thinks the economy is slipping back into recession.

     

    Indirectly, that has an effect on stocks every 3 months when earnings reports come out. Let's take McDonalds for example. Back in 2012 they were raising prices and doing fine. Then things worldwide started trending down and their sales started slumping. Then the FED starts, I think we are on QE4 now???, For the first quarter of 2013 (MCD) still sees slumping sales, even in the US. So they boost their dollar menu back like they did in 2008. Now, if sales pick up for the 2nd quarter they are fine and their stock will probably go up. If sales continue to slide so will their stock price. (MCD) just went through a space of time with and without QE. The stock price was based on their sales, not on QE.

     

    Now on the flip side, the world's economic growth has continued to slow down. That has had an effect on the US economy of slowing growth also. The FED started QE4 in the belief that it will help things out like it has since 2008. The results are still out on that one. What is different this time is China's economy has gone from 10% growth to estimates of 4%. They are not buying. So the rest of the world that has been depending on China is in a downturn. You can see this in Brazil, Russia, EU, Australia and the Pacific nations in that trade bloc and the US to a lesser extent. That is why people think if the FED stops, or reduces QE, that things will slip back into recession.
    23 Jun 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    BIS says central banks must stop supporting economy....

     

    http://bbc.in/10eAfgy
    23 Jun 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wasn't the govt suppose to jump start the economy already? One day they will realize that governments cant do it. It will be businessmen that will.
    23 Jun 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    bd4

     

    what is wrong with these dudes at the BIS? aren't they late for the show and missed the last train? what a bunch of bureaucrats!!
    24 Jun 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Thanks bd,
    I agree wholeheartedly:

     

    The BIS said central bank action had borrowed "time for others to act, allowing them to repair balance sheets, to consolidate fiscal balances, and to enact reforms to restore productivity growth".

     

    But Stephen Cecchetti, the head of the BIS monetary and economic department, said this had made it easy for the private sector to put off reforms and for governments to finance deficits more cheaply thanks to the low interest rates their actions had introduced.

     

    Mr Cecchetti said central banks must return their focus to maintaining financial stability and encouraging reforms, rather than "retarding them with near-zero interest rates and purchases of ever larger quantities of government securities".
    23 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There's that word CYPRUSED again !!

     

    "European finance ministers are due to reconvene on Wednesday after yesterday failing to agree on rules about who should bear the brunt of rescuing failing banks in the EU so that taxpayers don't have to. Germany and other eurozone countries want to use Cyprus as a template and impose losses on shareholders, bondholders and then deposits of over the €100,000. France, Britain, Denmark and Sweden want flexibility in whether to take such steps."

     

    For those who did not believe it was a template it didn't take too long to possibly use it again did it !!
    23 Jun 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    IT
    10 yr notes at 2.61%; Moody downgrades HK credit rating...what is going on?
    24 Jun 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    OK, just finnished my morning routine and here is how things look for the open:

     

    1) China has a mini crash over night as it tries to rein in shadow banking. This has cause stocks and commodities to go down.
    http://on.wsj.com/1aHnxew
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2) US dollar up cause gold, silver and oil down:
    http://bloom.bg/1aHnv6g
    3) Price of copper goes below 3.05 signalling world wide deflation.
    4) 10Y & 30Y US bond interest rates continue to climb.

     

    Went through my portfolio this morning and placed the following covered calls:
    1) GE 20JUL13 23 strike for $78 premium
    2) KO 28JUN13 41 strike for $37 premium
    3) MO 29JUL13 35 strike for $68 premium

     

    No other trades as none on my watchlist have hit my entry price, yet. Will be watching at this mornings open to see if any of them drop down to entry price.
    24 Jun 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    Notrub

     

    Good morning and thank for you for the data; about the US dollar index going up; the index has been going up but I don't see it going up to 90 especially with what has been going on in the world markets in the last couple weeks; people are not running to safety anymore because the index has been in a range of 80-84 for a couple years; in my opinion the US bonds and US$ will go down at the same time....I don't understand why experts keep calling US $ going up when it has been trading sideways for years now!!
    24 Jun 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Not,

     

    Thanks for the updates , in the future , please make sure this gets into my inbox by 8:00 am ----saves me a lot of legwork,,

     

    Just kidding ,,, - enjoy the day ! :)
    24 Jun 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration about China:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jun 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The oil stocks are getting crushed !!

     

    The carnage is far from over imo. The vix is rising, people are bailing out of everything. Good luck to those buying now. I just don't think were close to the bottom. 14k isn't too far away as Krusty said he has plays at that point.

     

    Last week people posted that 14k was improbably. Do posters think we can breach 14k now?

     

    Thanks.

     

    Funny when things drop , no one knows where it ends..
    24 Jun 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Today is all about keeping a cool head , & putting stuff in perspective,,

     

    OIl is down about .25 ,

     

    Oils stocks down with market, (CVX) up approx 20% for year , down 2.2% today.. I'm not on the "ledge" yet..

     

    Agree totally , no one knows where it may stop,,(same as when we hit S & P 1687)

     

    At present, order and calm are the order of the day..
    24 Jun 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I should go cut the grass again?
    24 Jun 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I just bought some PM this morning because it is on sale
    24 Jun 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I just misspoke, sorry I meant COAL stocks!! But I guess everything is down today right now. I see NOTRUB has a concern as well??
    24 Jun 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    IT and Fear:

     

    Yep, no one knows where a correction will stop.

     

    I bought my first chunk of (TAN) today. More to buy once we are 15% lower.

     

    Still have plans to buy more (WAG) and (INTC) at 14,000

     

    (BRK.B) still on my watch list.

     

    I hope (FSLR) could go further down the drain as I do not have enough.

     

    Krustyman :-)
    24 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Actually I am just following my plan. My rule says sell anything that drops 10%. That get me out of any long drops and helps build cash to buy back in at lower prices.

     

    I am currently watching (KO), (INTC), (GE) and (ADM)
    24 Jun 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOT

     

    Thanks for the Symbols.. It helps people for sure.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Now that the first hour of trading is in:
    1) The (VIX) has gone back up to over 21. This makes 2 trading days over 20.
    2) WTI-Brent crude spread has fallen below $7 for the moment. I'll let you google it for all the different implications.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    Besides some goggling it what's your take on this?

     

    Thanks.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    In simplistic terms WTI is domestic oil and Brent is foreign oil. As the US WTI oil is a better grade (less sulfur and more product produced per barrel) it used to be priced at a premium to Brent. As the spread narrows it means that oil prices are getting back to that dynamic. In simplistic terms it will mean the US becomes a net exporter of oil vice an importer improving the US balance of trade. Also, since WTI is produced locally it has less transportation costs which should in the long run equal lower refinery costs and end use (Gasoline) costs.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aHGQo1

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://bit.ly/1aHGQEg
    24 Jun 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Not,
    Good info , thanks,,

     

    One of the secular trends at work that will improve economy as this plays out over time.. Nice to keep those dollars here rather than send to Middle east. The great transfer of wealth that took place on our oil dependecy will slowly shift back. That can only be a good thing..

     

    Those facts are "lost" today --- but the impact will be evident down the road..
    24 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Question for all the chart readers!!!!

     

    What's the next level of support for the DOW and the S&P ?
    24 Jun 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I rely on S & P ,, next support ,, 1540-1545ish,
    200 day MA is approx. 1506..

     

    In my view at the moment 1480-1490 would be next ,,the uptrend would still be intact -- and represent about a 12% drop from high..

     

    A healthy correction from the highs.. I stated in recent commentary any correction is going to feel like the end of world because of where we are coming from...

     

    I also suggest now to take 1 day , 1 week at a time ..reevaluate as we move forward..
    24 Jun 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    S&P's bounced 2xs at 1563-63, second very strong bounce up. It's not making it up to 1575, but stopping at 1571-72. Don't know what that means to charts reading, but it seems to be picking a range.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I am not a chart reader but I would bet were going lower then 1560 !

     

    I fully understand people taking it one day at a time. But I am not strong enough to add anything just yet.

     

    Yup, I am guessing just like everyone else here.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    You have been calling for a healthy correction for a while, and as you say to some it will feel like the end of the world. I also was expecting a correction.

     

    I agree, everyone should take it one day at a time. I believe were around 5% down now from it's 52 week high. So 10% is still a ways to go.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    Computers were clearly set at 1560 to buy a bit today as it bounced on them 2xs, nice even number. Has nothing to do with supports from what I gather though. :)
    24 Jun 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    You know I was more optimistic when the power failure was still around. Watching too close is not always a good thing.

     

    It seems there is so much money sloshing around it has to go some where. This realignment ... where to put money when the dust settles?
    24 Jun 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4,

     

    Lol :). Yep, sometimes not looking is the best way to coast....!

     

    I'm not mowing. I'm going to take a nap.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I can hold it for you. But consider putting it in gold and silver first,

     

    That comment outta get some return posts.. hehe
    24 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    @ IT .
    That's really a good strategy for some of us IT. What it means is we buy PM's through the business at a discount from the public. Then we optimize the items based on value and marketability (Is that a word? ) .
    Hopefully Gold & Silver spike up as much as it goes down and by holding it a few days,weeks ,etc. we can increase the profit margin. That's how it works in the Coin business ,in case anyone cares LOL.It's the same principle as trading,buy low sell high. Wash ,Rinse and Repeat. However ,your mileage may vary .
    24 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    I read where a store in the Midwest was not accepting our currency as payment. All he would accept was either gold or silver. He owned the business so you either bought your items his way or not shopped in his store.

     

    Now he was smart. His product was marked up of course. So if it cost him say $15 bucks , his cost , and charged $20 bucks. A person today would walk in and give him an ounce of silver for it.

     

    Now that customer might of had it for years and only paid 8 bucks per ounce, so he was happy, and the vendor just got an ounce of silver for $15 dollars , his cost, when the market price is around $20 bucks..

     

    Apparently it has been going on for a few years now. But of course when silver was in the 30 buck per ounce he might have lost out on profit...One does not know his motive for doing this but I am sure he had it figured out!
    24 Jun 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    This is interesting ... I am not a bitcoin investor nor do I advocate it but ... http://bit.ly/11YVH6z

     

    Then California orders cease and desist .... http://bit.ly/11YVH6B
    24 Jun 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    bd4uandu:

     

    Re: Bitcoins. They should not have done that...especially now. It's the end of Bitcoins IMHO.

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    You may be right Krusty.
    I was regularly trading BTC's before the big run up to 260 and the crash back down and it was the easiest money I ever made.
    But then a month or so ago the USG told Dwolla, a payment processor used to get your money to MtGox, that they could no longer do that. That told me all I needed to know and I sold what BTC's I had left and withdrew my money from MtGox. I am not surprised further crackdowns are occurring, though I do disagree with that.

     

    Glad I got out soon enough, agree with bd4u, would advise anyone to stay away from them. Its sort of a take on dont fight the Fed. The USG can kill BTC's if it wants to. Looks like it may want to.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    Re: Bitcoins

     

    I completely missed the ride on that product. I was tempted to buy some in the 10 zone but never did.

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Everyone:

     

    A good one you may want to add on your watch list: (AAPL)

     

    Interesting.

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Krusty ... I like Apple stuff I use Apple stuff but Apple management seems inept and is constantly shooting themselves in the foot. Maybe I have too high expectations from them but isn't that how they want us to perceive them? They were great when it was Mr Softy and Apple but there is more competition out there now and the WOW doesn't seem there.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    bd4uandu:

     

    I do not think Apple's management is inept but I would agree that Apple is a different company since Steve Jobs is gone.

     

    They probably have a couple of tricks for us hidden in their pipeline. The brand is so strong that any on-par product should be well received. I would also not be surprised to see a new product and/or update from them as soon as the market stabilizes.

     

    Time will tell...

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » KRUSTY.. any comment on this?

     

    Apple (AAPL -3.3%) roundup: 1) Shares are near $400 thanks to Peter Misek's note and an equity selloff. On top of reporting of high inventories (a reason for Wal-Mart's promotion?), Misek says checks indicate Apple's wafer starts at a Samsung fab used for app processor production "have likely been cut." 2) Global Equities claims "recruiters are seeing more and more employees from Apple applying for jobs" at other tech companies (previous). 3) TSMC (TSM) has scored a 3-year app processor deal with Apple, says Digitimes. Volume production of Apple's A8 CPU, said to use TSMC's next-gen 20nm process, will reportedly start after December. 4) The Supreme Court has rejected an appeal from Mirror Worlds to review an overturned $625.5M infringement ruling against Apple
    24 Jun 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    No comment. I've added the stock to my watch list this morning. I posted the info on your blog.

     

    ''The Supreme Court has rejected an appeal from Mirror Worlds to review an overturned $625.5M infringement ruling against Apple''.

     

    This is good, though.

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Kuysty,

     

    Totally agree, I expect a bit more weakness in (AAPL) here due to the window dressing this week,,

     

    good spot here to start building a position for those not already in ..
    24 Jun 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Hi Fear!

     

    The RSI14 closed at 26. We are in an extremely oversold territory.

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    Here's an article about current RSI
    http://bit.ly/18dpnnY
    He's thinking short term bounce for a few days, then bearish overall trend, but long term bullish if it doesn't break below 1340.

     

    Futures are up. Asia was green overnight. Lennar reported better than expected earnings & is up. Wonder if it will do nicely today?
    25 Jun 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    you beat me to that ! :)

     

    saw it --- and totally agree..
    25 Jun 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "The RSI14 closed at 26. We are in an extremely oversold territory."

     

    Some don't understand this comment, can someone please explain it alittle. Thanks!
    25 Jun 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    RSI stands for "realtive strength index" , its an indicator that can show if a particular stock is oversold or overbought at a particular point in time

     

    Simple rule.. An rsi under 30 is considered oversold-- rsi over 80 overbought

     

    Best way to visualize is to see it on a chart ,, freestockcharts.com is a good source..

     

    looking at my (AAPL) chart this morning , the RSI is at a level that in the past indicates the stock is oversold and in the past has "bounced" higher in the near term.. One could suggest this will happen again,,

     

    Good tool for traders , I use it along with other tools to target "entry" price and on Long term positions i use the rsi when it flashes overbought to sell calls against that stock, in anticipation of a pullback,,

     

    Hope this helps...
    25 Jun 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yup.

     

    I understood it but I received a PM from someone who did not. Thanks for adding the source where someone can go to look at it!
    25 Jun 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Had a typo on the Rsi --should read 70 as overbought not 80
    25 Jun 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    I was talking about (AAPL) :-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Fear:

     

    Ehehe :-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,,

     

    I put it on (AAPL) as a trade for one of my clients , @400.40 a few minutes ago .. , think the risk/reward here is acceptable.. Div doesnt hurt either

     

    we shall see ------- :)
    25 Jun 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    F & G: Apple does not disclose the duration of its "long term" bond investments as far as I can tell.

     

    It only breaks out marketable securities as short and long term, with one year being the dividing line.

     

    This is standard but does not provide an investor such as myself with adequate information to quantify potential losses in its bond portfolio for a cash rich company.

     

    This may be a nit but I have to wonder whether the next quarterly report will include a write-down of its portfolio based on a non-temporary decline in value for long term marketable securities. I do not personally view the recent decline in bond prices to be temporary.

     

    I looked in both the quarterly and annual reports for information about bond duration and did not see anything. The break down can be found at page 7 of Apples last filed 10Q:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/12n9p1X

     

    "Long Term Marketable Securities" are shown at $105.55B, most of the cash stash.

     

    I am more concerned about the lack of new products and margins. I am not sure how investors will react when Apple reports and the E.P.S. number is anywhere near the $7.41 current consensus estimate, down from $10.32 in the year earlier quarter.

     

    While all of the statistics say value at the current price (P/E, PEG, Cash Per Share, P/E adjusted for Cash, etc), the market is expressing caution in a price trending down below its 200 and 50 day SMAs.

     

    http://yhoo.it/yfuUsL;range=1y;compare=;ind...
    25 Jun 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    can't argue with that , but we are trading at $390 ish , most if not all may be reflected in price.. If you pull up a "weekly " on AAPL , it sits just above it's longer term trend line - 200 wk MA..

     

    also last three times we saw an RSI at these levels the stock bounced nicely..
    25 Jun 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    I was tempted to buy (AAPL) as well but I had to manage my position with (WAG) so it took me the entire day (well...almost).

     

    Good luck! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,
    Thanks,

     

    may not be too late , don't see AAPL running away here.....
    25 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MORTGAGE RATE ALERT !!

     

    "The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edges above 5% with Conor Sen noting Wells Fargo quoting an APR of 5.05% this morning. It wasn't long ago this had a 3-handle on it. Housing bulls say higher rates will lead to even more buying as panicked prospective purchasers rush to get in before the low-rate door shuts. Weekly mortgage applications - trending down of late - should continue to be of interest. Homebuilders ETF "

     

    Sure they will rush to buy huh?
    24 Jun 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1761) | Send Message
     
    IT some people will still buy homes, because the market (at least where I live) is still down quite a bit from the peak in 2005.

     

    Even a 5 % mortgage is still a good deal. The key is to make sure you will be in that home for at least 7 years (the longer the better) and that you have your emergency fund, 20 % or more to put down, a stable job, and that you've done an analysis that shows buying is better than renting. In fact buying may not be a good option for a young person.

     

    I read your story about 20 somethings not trusting the gov't, not interested in investing....wow that's exactly where I was back in my 20's in the late 1970s. The part about "not trusting the gov't" was a real belly buster. I'm trying to remember when I ever did trust the gov't! Certainly not during Nixon & the Viet Nam War era. Really, is it any worse today than it was back then? I don't see kids rioting like they did on college campuses. Hey these 20 somethings sure look a lot like we did when we were 20 something! And I don't ever remember a time when getting a good job was easy. It took hard work, making the most of your job opportunities & we worked way more than 40 hours a week.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Higher mortgage rates mean lower home prices down the road...is this the right correlation? those housing bulls never get it right, do they? not in 08-09, not now
    24 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    I agree with most of what you said except the part about jobs. It seems more are graduating with less opportunities in their field. But yeah the 70's were similar to today's kids I guess.

     

    I just saw more frustration because when I graduated in the 70's I did find a job in my field. Quite easily I might add. Today it is different in my eyes. Plus in the 70's we were against wars, today it is more items that are coming out daily.

     

    Maybe it is the media and the internet making it seem like more bad news. But even so it does seem like more distrust by the young ones, and they aren't having college sit in's because their issues are after they graduate. Like no jobs and plenty of loans.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Rina:

     

    ''Higher mortgage rates mean lower home prices down the road...is this the right correlation?''

     

    That's what happened in the 80's and 90's. And I guess it will happen again. :-) You pay more interest on your loan but you pay less for the house. In the end, the buyer will be in the driver's seat and will have a bigger negotiating power.

     

    My 2 cents.

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ Rina

     

    Not really. Mortgage rates are not the real driving factor on home buying until they're over 8%. It's desire - what are prices compared to renting? What's the job market for stability? It's this area vs. that location - closer to jobs goes up as building in outlying areas takes on the lower payers.

     

    On Krusty's comment. In 80's rates were high, 8-10% in mid-80s. That started to push it on whether mortgage payments could possibly be only slightly more than what rents could be pushed up to.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1761) | Send Message
     
    IT maybe too many kids are going to college. It's not worth going into that much debt & then have no job after graduation. I worked in a lot of low paying jobs before getting into computer programming. But the job where I made the most money and required the least amount of education was real estate. All my ideas of needing a college education in order to be successful were blown away once I got into real estate, and saw that many of my most successful clients never went to college. They were plumbers, small business owners etc. Sure some of my clients were doctors & lawyers, and they had plenty of money. But the business owners still blew them away.

     

    While I worked at Prudential in the 1990s, they went through several downsizings. Now Prudential doesn't even sell auto & home insurance. So I got into real estate because I could work weekends while my husband took care of our son. I was in my 40s then.

     

    There are jobs out there, but people have to be willing to move. The midwest has really low unemployment.

     

    My husband and I had to move to a place where we knew no one, New Jersey! Now we've lived here so many years, it would be hard to leave. The kids in NJ live at home for many years, sometimes they are 30 before they finally get their own place. Rent & home prices are still too high here.

     

    Before going to college, these kids need to look at what job areas are actually going to hire them. Nursing, (accounting/finance, and teaching (especially math & science) have always been good areas. There's a shortage of dentists, dental assistants and even doctors right now. Physician's assistants do very well.

     

    New Jersey is having a building boom because of that hurricane last year. My son has 2 part time jobs, and they both want him to work more hours. He wants to have his own small business, so he's learning the ropes from the ground up.

     

    Believe it or not, there is a huge shortage of technical workers in computer/electrical engineering right now. This is my husband's field. Anyone going into this field will have a job before graduating.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    krusty

     

    yes I remember the good ole days
    24 Jun 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    I agree that NOW looking at job opportunities makes sense. But 6 years ago this wasn't even a thought that college might be a mistake for some. My Doctor has told me that he wished he became a Lawyer instead because of all the cuts in payments.

     

    In fact he convinced his son not to follow in his footsteps. I have posted my own daughters Teaching issues enough so I won't here. Now as far as moving away you just pointed out a major stumbling block for those after college.

     

    If our kids HAVE to live with us now because of high rents and/or mortgages how can they make it on their own relocating? My daughter is 26 and has talked about this but her boyfriend of 3 years has a business here so he is concerned about losing HIS business while SHE starts her career. So it's a tough choice when it's the kids relocating and not the parents.

     

    I also was considering selling Real Estate about 10 years ago for some extra income but we know what happened to the home market during the last decade.

     

    Speaking of relocating when are your Giants going to get out of my Jets stadium, and why are both still considered NY teams but play in NJ anyway??
    24 Jun 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    The Qualified buyer will. I agree !
    24 Jun 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    Just read this morning the SELLERS are now in the drivers seat. So who is correct?
    25 Jun 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT:

     

    Regarding real estate? What was the rationale behind that?

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    A few guests said that inventory is low in areas and rates are still low so that the seller's are getting multiple bids on homes.

     

    I am sure it is location, location, location,,,
    25 Jun 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    @ It How so? The rule of thumb is Cash is King in a crisis.I would think people that are qualified and have the ability to buy could bypass most of the blarney that the sellers use to get the most out of their house,and get some really nice steals.But I don't pretend to know enough about RE to say. I just know there are some great deals if you can put up with all the excess paperwork.I t's just ridiculous how many people get paid when you buy a home. Everybody slips a bill in at closing.Kind of kills a good thing IMHO.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    If I am understanding you correctly are you suggesting someone pay CASH for the whole purchase. If so that's a lot of moula laying around.

     

    (Moula is Italian for cash, I think). Close to what my wife calls me.. Moron..
    25 Jun 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    Not really IT. What I am saying is ,yes if they have the cash for the whole deal. I did 5 years ago and bought my bldg. (The Alamo) for the business. That was an exception though.
    However, more realistic is the fact that if you have the 20% so that LTV is 80/20 it means you wouldn't pay any PMI to some crooked outfit like Fanny Mae or Freddy Mac . I bought a house about 4 years ago ,but sold a lot that I owned so there would be about 25% equity right away.We made little or no money on the lot but it meant our house pmt. was a HOUSE payment ,not a pmt. to some quasi govt. politically connected deal for Fr Mac to give bonuses to Obama supporters. Just the stubborn German coming out in me. :) Glad we did that now .We actually own 1/2 of our house now .
    25 Jun 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    I live an hour outside of NYC and homes here go for over 300k. So that's a lot of money for some to shell out and seeing their neighbors underwater on homes they bought a few years ago for 400k quite frankly scares them away from taking that chance.

     

    300k doesn't buy much I might add as well.

     

    Most would love not to have a mortgage but a majority of people can't swing that .
    25 Jun 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't want to pay the property taxes there IT. My house pmt is a little more than a $1000.00 a month with Taxes and Insurance. the home appraised for $195,000 ,but we bought it from a bank (A new build) that was a foreclosure because the builder walked away after he finished it in 2008. We had to put some cash and sweat equity with our offer for about 90% of the appraisal. I believe the bank lost money on the sale ,but probably got TARP money on the back end.I have no way of knowing. Good for us though.I hate HIGH property taxes,The power to TAX is the power to destroy IMHO.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    Then this figure for taxes will floor you. My brother lives in a decent size home. His taxes one town over is 25k per year. No , he does not live by the water, he lives in the Catskill Mountains..

     

    25k per year !
    25 Jun 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    Un real !
    25 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    precisely why i left northeast for the carolinas , 2500 sq ft house with pool , taxes $1,700 per year.... 5 min from beach.. not to mention my auto ins is 1/4th , same coverage....

     

    And if you are into golf,,, u wil lbe in heaven.. I'm into fishing , and that works well too..
    25 Jun 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    I kid you not, if I did not have a daughter up here and my Mom I would move in a heartbeat. I don't play golf because of my fused back. But the cold is the worst for my condition.

     

    Wife has family in Florida and also parents in the Bronx but I have visited the Carolina's a few times on vacation and fell in love with the place. Always tell my wife well end up there one day !

     

    My daughter years ago played in a softball tournament in Myrtle Beach and I almost stayed .. lol It was in April and in NY we were freezing and after the drive down I was in shorts. No humidity, I thought I was in heaven!!
    25 Jun 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Yep, I used to live on the coast of NC, really liked it and costs were moderate to low comparatively.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    F & G: Property taxes are about the same here in Tennessee. The total on my home is around $2,000 for both the city and the county. The City of Brentwood has kept their share constant for over 20 years at less than $300 of that amount and has managed to maintain a AAA credit rating while providing its residents all of the amenities. We just do things differently in the south. I would add that there is no state income tax on earned income, IRA withdrawals, or capital gains, and the state legislature just abolished the state inheritance and gift taxes.

     

    25 Jun 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Location is the main point in real estate for sure. My comment was regarding high interest rates. What you are saying is with regard to low interest rates. Not the same effect on prices. :-)

     

    I am not sure a seller would have multiple bids on his home with interest rates at 2-3% higher. But rates are not the only thing to consider (as mentioned by curls above).

     

    Your mortgage payment on a $250,000 house is $1,342/month at 5% for 30 years. At 8%, you have to pay $1,834.41/month. At 10%, it is 2,193.93/month.

     

    You could have a lot of houses hitting the market at the same time if the rates are going too high too fast IMHO, thus putting the buyer in the driver's seat.

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    I love Myrtle Beach area ,especially Pawleys Island. We go there at least once a year,sometimes Spring and Fall. About a 5 hour drive.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    Just the old outdated "Hall" Tax SG .
    25 Jun 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    Good illustration of the interest rate effect on mortgages !
    25 Jun 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    IT/All

     

    If I may express my opinion about real estate, I see from the postings that some people are excited that the real estate market might be growing again but I have to disagree and say that I like to see the economy grow based on manufacturing industries coming back home; the past 2 or 3 decades the economy has been growing based on housing and financial sectors and we know how that ended; as a mechanical engineer (CCNY) I like to see manufacturing back and the country and people will be better off.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    Coins: Yes, I take a good lick on the 6% Hall income tax for most interest and dividends payments, after a standard deduction and certain exclusions such as interest paid by Tennessee municipal bonds.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    You are lucky; Tennessee has good whiskey too
    25 Jun 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    Rina: I was living in Maryland until 1982 and was hit with a 5% tax on all income from that state and another 2.5% from Montgomery County and was paying the Federal government in 1980-1981 a 50% maximum rate on earned income and a higher marginal rate on other forms of income. Dividends were then taxes at the highest marginal rates which were sky high. The marginal rate over $109,400 was 68% in 1980:

     

    http://bit.ly/10nR70Z

     

    So I am content now to pay my $2,000 in property taxes, Tennessee's 6% tax on most dividends and interest payments, and a 15% federal tax on long term capital gains and qualified dividends. I know people in other states that have to pay a state income tax on withdrawals from an IRA, the very mention of that idea would be a hanging offense in Tennessee.

     

    I have visited the Jack Daniels distillery in Lynchburg, TN. which is located in a dry county. Jack died of blood poisoning after kicking his safe after forgetting the combination, breaking his big toe and then an infection set in.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    I am with you Rin
    25 Jun 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    Reply to myself on my tax payments pre-1982:

     

    Actually, come to think of it, why not just hit me on the side of my head with a bat and steal my wallet.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ Rina

     

    "as a mechanical engineer (CCNY) I like to see manufacturing back and the country and people will be better off. "

     

    Absolutely. Growth in the solid production industries instead of the next level (service) industries, is what will really count at getting this country into good economic condition over time.

     

    @ Real Estate

     

    I checked with my family (that's done RE for years). They concurred. People buy houses because it's time to buy a house. Then they pick which one based on what they can afford. There can be short lags with more buyers vs. sellers & vice versa... but that's 3 maybe 4 months tops. A recession & poor wage stability can have a definite effect. But a few points in interest just doesn't do it.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    thank you for your reply and the information on Daniels; I am glad that things have worked out for you; I saved some cash but with 0% rates I got shortchanged and my retirement is delayed and hopefully the moves into stockmarket will compensate
    26 Jun 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    That's funny
    26 Jun 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    Curls , your comment on RE:

     

    "Then they pick which one based on what they can afford. There can be short lags with more buyers vs. sellers & vice versa... but that's 3 maybe 4 months tops. A recession & poor wage stability can have a definite effect. But a few points in interest just doesn't do it."

     

    Totally Agree.... :)
    26 Jun 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    curls

     

    thank you for your comments; yes, I agree with you about growth; on real estate, I know a lot posters don't agree with me on letting the housing bubble deflate but what these people miss is that if prices go lower then more people can afford to buy instead of the government
    26 Jun 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    "Reply to myself on my tax payments pre-1982:
    Actually, come to think of it, why not just hit me on the side of my head with a bat and steal my wallet."

     

    BINGO ! LOL
    26 Jun 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    As an update I had two stocks hit 10% down and sold them this morning 100 (ORI) and 300 (FTR). I just sit on the cash and see where things go.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1761) | Send Message
     
    Today is a buying opportunity, if you are a long term investor. This article today brings it all in perspective

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Save some cash in case we see the market fall even more. A lot of us have been hoarding cash for some time, but invest it slowly.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Were getting there, but to me it seems a bit early to start buying now.
    Isn't there another shoe to drop first?
    24 Jun 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    I keep feeling like there's gong to be more down, another shoe. It'd be conservative until Sept when tapering does or doesn't start.

     

    Question: What good news would make the markets get happy? Several good earnings reports maybe? Anything else typical at this point to show up?
    24 Jun 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Yes I agree some up side earning surprises would help. Maybe Tax reform on a federal, state and local level. It's an off year if things get bad maybe congress will get to work.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    bd4u,

     

    LOL, thats pretty funny.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    That's some of that Blue sky talk isn't it?
    24 Jun 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TRUTH OR DARE??

     

    Ok here is my rant for the day , POLITICAL,,

     

    We have this Snowden guy that was obviously a spy. Now China had em but said "where'd he go ?". Slips out of China ( yeah right) and ends up where, Russia.. Now we have an ambassador showing up to give him asylum.

     

    The very next possible trading day China drops 5% . Ok I like a good conspiracy so is this a coincidence or somehow crafted by the CB'S ?? Did the USA put some heat on here? What do we now do with Russia?

     

    Obviously this POTUS did more then just piss off the Americans. It seems we have no big time allies anywhere. So what do we do ? I know we have some here with Military experience and some who are just smart enough to think outside the box.

     

    With todays market dropping I thought it is a good time to change gears for some. ANYONE want to add their opinion on this situation.

     

    Ecuador seems like a nice place to hunker down. I thought only Venezuela hated us in that location. Seems we have more enemies then we know of..

     

    Still waiting to find out who really killed Kennedy as well. Ok, I am curious if I get any responses on this..
    24 Jun 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    You really think Snowden was a spy?
    I dont think he, or his activities had any effect on markets.
    I forgot the guys name (Wikileaks) who released all that info a while back, much more than Snowden, but he is still out there somewhere and when all that info went out there was no market reaction.

     

    BTW, England is still a good buddy to the US.
    As for Kenendy, I think it was extraterrestrials!!!
    24 Jun 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    I meant China's market getting slapped around the next day after Snowden was hiding in China and they did nothing to help us get our hands around him..

     

    I do like the UFO theory on Kennedy though.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1761) | Send Message
     
    Snowden has zero to do with markets tanking. JMHO.

     

    I find it the height of hypocrisy that Snowden leaked US secrets about the gov't keeping track of our emails, conversations, etc. and then where'd he go....China and then Russia.

     

    The 2 countries where personal liberties are the absolute lowest. And where gov't spying on their own citizens has always been an issue. What a pos.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    I agree Bluesky not effecting the markets.

     

    I am not sure if I see him as traitor or patriot. All this spying on citizens is troubling. It seems Governments local and Federal have policies to encourage urban living. They have IMO more surveillance then necessary. It has gone beyond traffic cams to help with traffic. Conspiracy? ... Well I always liked a good theory. Adding more tin foil soon. Soon at the rate we are going everyone will be indebted to government largess to get buy and if your mind is not right well...."What we have here is a failure to comunicate"
    24 Jun 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    The perfect set up though ? Some see him as a Patriot while some see him as a Traitor. He *leaks* information that both China and Russia knows will really annoy the citizens then offer him a hiding place?

     

    Will make a great movie one day !!

     

    Let's see what else gets leaked as I am sure we haven't heard the last of it.. Plus what did China and Russia learn about us ??
    I am in the camp he became a spy !!

     

    Now the POTUS violated the law when his (3) appointments he did when Congress was in recess were illegal..
    24 Jun 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    what you want do ? nuke both, China and Russia? before that both will dump our bonds or show the world their gold and game over for the US...what else can we do? checkmate
    24 Jun 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Sanctions a possibility?

     

    @BSF

     

    Was he a spy for another country then?
    24 Jun 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1071) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    what kind of sanctions? we are going to tell Russia not to export their oil, the world oil producer?
    don't forget that Russia is allowing the use of its territory to supply our troops in Afganistan
    24 Jun 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1761) | Send Message
     
    IT no, I think Snowden is more of a pawn now. According to one of his friends, that was close to him years ago, he always felt uncomfortable about how much info the gov't was collecting on us.

     

    His discomfort found it impossible for him to keep his job. In a way I'm glad he spilled the beans, we should know about what the gov't is doing.

     

    But I ask you, did anyone really think that every time they talked on a cell phone, sent an email or posted on a blog/facebook/twitter, that no one had the capability of seeing it?

     

    In Great Britain, the tabs made sport of intercepting Princess Di's calls. And that was decades ago.

     

    If you thought you were always anonymous, I have a bridge to sell you, cheap too!
    24 Jun 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    I agree as most of my private thoughts are done in person within my group. We are careful what emails, or phone call conversations we have.

     

    Been doing this for years now. I was just surprised it finally came out and question his reasons. I don't buy he just felt uncomfortable just yet. Maybe I am wrong but I am not convinced .
    24 Jun 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    For what it is worth, I noticed a few minutes ago that the 20+ year treasury bond ETF TLT was down .15%, while the 7-10 year treasury ETF IEF was down more at -.37% as was the 3 to 7 year treasury ETF IEI. Most of the damage now is centered in the intermediate term maturities. LQD was down .97%. While I would not call it a trend, perhaps some investors are seeing value at the long end of the curve.

     

    For now, I am in a wait and see approach, keeping my powder dry for today and possibly for the remainder of the week with the possible exception of a 50 share bond CEF nibble.

     

    Some of my regional banks are doing okay today. FMER, for example, hit a new 52 week high today and is currently up 1.14%.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration in the arena of muni bonds:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/14T...
    24 Jun 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration. As an aside he also has the entry price I am looking for on (GE) 18.50-19.00.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jun 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3355) | Send Message
     
    Nortrub: I would place the odds of GE returning to $18.5- $19 as low. A more likely entry point would be in the $20-$22 range for a new position.

     

    I will generally set a total exposure amount in dollar terms for company. I am not hesitant to build into that position with small lots, which is how I built up my current GE position. I am at my full level for GE open market purchases, but I am reinvesting the dividends.

     

    If I did not have a position, I would not hesitate to initiate a position with a small odd lot purchase between $21--$22 and then buy more in the $20 neighborhood and then more at $18.5 to $19. When a stock is reasonably priced, as GE is now, I would try to be flexible on my entry points for a new position. Notwithstanding what is happening in the market now, GE may not even get below $22 doing this current downdraft period.

     

    The P/E is reasonable. The market is not buying the current E.P.S. consensus estimate of $1.83 for 2014 or a forward 12.57 P/E based on the current $23 share price. If that forward estimate was the market's consensus now, the price would be higher by several dollars per share.

     

    TLT, the 20+ treasury, has moved into positive territory and is now up .34%.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reply SG.
    I am going through several breakdowns as we speak on GE. Most seem to agree with your analysis.

     

    BTW, the VIX has trended back down to where it ended Friday below 19. This could be a long week for the market to figure out what it wants to do...:o)
    24 Jun 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration one of the better articles I've read about what is going on with China and the ramifications. I might note that some of the comments could be educational also in forming a long term world wide view of things.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jun 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Yes interesting article thanks for the link. Does any body know How much world wide government stimulus was added from 2008 to present? Is that how much overcapacity there is now?
    24 Jun 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    bd,
    I would think not because the amount of money wasted on bailing out banks, insurance companies, car companies, GSEs, etc. Then you have the money wasted trying to support certain sectors like solar energy. They would have done better by including them in with MLPs for tax advantages instead of directly supporting them to bankruptcy. I am one of those that believes the government should not be involved in favoring one company over others. To the point I will not buy a GM or Fiat vehicle ever since they took a bailout.

     

    I personally think the money would have been better spent and more people employed if they had used the money to repair current infrastructure, like the bridges that keep collapsing.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking more on country by country basis. China stimulated, South Korea, UK Etc. It's got to be in the tens of trillions?
    24 Jun 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    NR,the money must be kept on the Monopoly board in order for the Banksters to plunder it. If it goes into a silly bridge it's not in their hands and they can't get the usual "moneychanger" exchange benefits .How else can they get their bonuses? Heartless I tell you, heartless.
    24 Jun 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Markets seem to be calming down now that damage control is being done by the FED. IMO they cannot turn off the spickets yet and I expect the markets to head north soon.

     

    Overreaction to what BB said, and maybe misunderstood his comments as he NEVER said it was turning off funds unless the economy was healthy. I guess it is not .
    24 Jun 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1126) | Send Message
     
    >NEVER said it was turning off funds unless the economy was healthy.

     

    It's not only that he never said that. From a rational investor's standpoint: What sense does it make, economically, to stop printing until the economy is on its feet? Why people find that so hard to grasp, I'll never know.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    I see Market Vectors is doing a reverse split on some of their ETF's. I own two of them included (GDXJ) and (REMX) effective next month.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Any thoughts on reverse slits?

     

    Could they be seeing lower share prices in the cards?
    24 Jun 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4398) | Send Message
     
    @BD4
    It's not a sign of things going up. Those have already lost so much, & are already tough to trade because of the lower price. Helps too avoid going Pink Sheet, if they dip under $1 at some point even momentarily on a big overall down day. Those are my thoughts for whatever they add.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the thought .... REMX @ $9.49 and GDXJ @ $8.84 end of day today.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DNORM

     

    WELCOME...Great question to open the next chapter !! MOVING ALONG ONTO ANY NEW TOPIC..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jun 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HINT..PLAYER IS FROM BOSTON imo...no cheating. Winner gets a gift!
    25 Jun 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    John havlicek ?
    25 Jun 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WOW, I actually posted it in the wrong Chapter, but 8 Titles was my pick..

     

    You googled it didn't you??
    25 Jun 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5369) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Nope, just remember him form all of those championships.. couldnt remember any famous red sox player with that number so i took a shot ..not into hockey either..
    25 Jun 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11575) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Know what is sad. I bet half the posters said WHO? We just showed our age on this one. Maybe a poster will have another person in mind.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
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