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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 16......... 209 comments
    Jun 24, 2013 2:50 PM

    What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, OUR ECONOMY?

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I expect they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I would like to start up a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S are talked about as being safer then others. (NYSEARCA:PSLV) is the silver ETF.

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "?, are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other commodities? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk (NYSEARCA:GLD) or (NYSEARCA:SLV) that is fine.

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure well be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol you use so that I can include that in the topic forum. It also allows a reader to click on it and get some data as well.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as well. Tom, Eric, Hebba, to name a few in no particular order. I am sure they will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion as well.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well.

    As you see I have stopped adding any new symbols as they were growing way too fast for me to keep up !!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (209)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ">NEVER said it was turning off funds unless the economy was healthy.

     

    It's not only that he never said that. From a rational investor's standpoint: What sense does it make, economically, to stop printing until the economy is on its feet? Why people find that so hard to grasp, I'll never know."

     

    A new poster threw this out for discussion...
    24 Jun 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    IT, Nice blog.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COMMON BLOG

     

    Welcome, I look forward to your thoughts and as you will see we banter ideas back and forth in a polite manner. I usually have to add a new chapter daily as we add some much great info daily I suggest you bookmark all the old chapters as well.

     

    Hopefully others can address the good points of this blog too,

     

    Thanks!
    25 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    You know IT Ya just moved to No. 3.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As I always say and I mean this sincerely. YOU POSTERS are adding so much info it HAS to add lurkers and commenters. I only reff this , and the only person stepping out of line was me.. lol

     

    To all. Thanks for making this work, I am learning along with others and quite honestly this is better then any book to read. This is THE BOOK on investments because we get it from all angles.

     

    I have never read any book that includes this much information on all levels. It was TACK'S explanation of BDC'S and how they are misunderstood that had me tip back in at this point!

     

    Hope all find a way to spread the word, maybe post a stocktalk to all your followers and tell them how this is working. The more the merrier!!
    25 Jun 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    IT, thanx for the invite ... hope my long-term GDP, Debt downgrades & Oil modeling will give some insight. BTW, I can't add any worthwhile comments to this week's grass discussion. Up here in the Yukon nobody mulches it ... comes from BC and they dice it real fine.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY

     

    Welcome.....Jump over to chapter 17 and drop us some ideas you have !!

     

    Link usually is on bottom post but I think we got carried away with some sports talk until CURLS put an end to it !!
    26 Jun 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    The Fed printing to stimulate the economy I don't think it will ever be on it's feet. Congress will just spend to it's new limits. A sane tax policy would help but we have a president and congress that demagogues any proposals. The only thing I see that will help is term limits but I am not sure we will ever see it.
    24 Jun 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    >Congress will just spend to it's new limits.

     

    With inflation non-existent (currently), is that really an issue? Shouldn't we be hoping for more fiscal stimulus?
    24 Jun 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Inflation is non-existent?
    What city, state or country are you referring to?
    24 Jun 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    >What city, state or country are you referring to?

     

    I'm one of those naive souls who trusts the data. CPI is near all time lows.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    tampat,
    understand where u are coming from re: inflation
    However that is what the markets are trading on,, --

     

    goes back to "playing the cards that are dealt"

     

    just an observation...
    25 Jun 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    You're right and I do understand that, but that doesn't make the no inflation claims true.

     

    When the inflation rate is published it should come with a disclaimer:

     

    "This is what we say inflation is but it is really higher than this."
    25 Jun 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DNORM
    Some here don't trust that figure, so it always seems to hit a sore spot for some. Including me, but in the long run it might not matter much anyway..

     

    Some are forecasting deflation happening. So who knows but imo we do have inflation fwiw..
    25 Jun 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    What irritates me is the philosophy, prevalent among politcos, that if you repeat a lie often enough people will believe it and think its true.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    FG

     

    I don't play with the card that are dealt; I made a point when I started investing to get a return that far exceeds inflation and attrition costs (both > 10%) and capital gains
    25 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    I said to Rin a while ago, & I'll say to you too - obviously there's inflation. The whomever may say it, but not one who buys weekly household goods thinks there isn't any. ...it does seem to have leveled off recently. Guess they can't figure out how to make 1/2 serving size cans of tuna that no one will "notice."
    25 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I need to show this post to my wife so that when I make 2 cans of Tuna I can point this out and say "SEE IT'S REALLY ONLY ONE CAN !" Think it might work ??

     

    BDU...I had to yell this as my wife is Italian any only understands that language ( yelling). Those married to Italians might understand this comment.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Rin,

     

    Good for you ,,

     

    point is why obsess over an issue you have no control over i.e. how CPI or any other index is calculated ... or Fed obsession ?? or ............
    25 Jun 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I agree with you that it isn't healthy to obsess about things you have no control over, or obsess about anything for that matter. I guess that's why its called a 'disorder' (i.e. OCD).

     

    Accepting information that isn't true when one knows it isn't true and to continue to perpetuate the lie isn't beneficial to anyone either.

     

    I mean that in general.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    F&G: I just lowered my personal CPI substantially by changing my P & C carrier. Travelers had gone way up in price on my home, car and umbrella policies. After checking around some, I just saved about $800 per year going with another well established carrier and will also receive some upgrades on certain coverage items. Competition is a good thing but consumers need to check prices on just about everything particularly the big items.

     

    There is no doubt in mind that the BLS makes a good faith effort to compute CPI on a national level. I am aware that many disagree with that statement. We all have to recognize that any such effort, even with a considerable amount of resources put into the collection of data, is at best a reasonable approximation for such a large and complex economy as our own.

     

    And, for each individual, your inflation rate will be different from mine or the national average depending on where your spending is concentrated.

     

    The owner equivalent rent component of CPI is not relevant to me, for example, since I own my home free and clear and have no intention of moving.

     

    See BLS Publication:
    http://1.usa.gov/123ySDY

     

    To understand how the official CPI release may relate to a particular individual, it is necessary to disaggregate what is causing increases and decreases and then sort of eyeball those components that impact each person differently. This can be done easily by going to this Cleveland FED site and then click "here" at the bottom of the page under "Disaggregated Median CPI Data"

     

    http://bit.ly/16MEscP

     

    Insurance costs are a more important CPI item for me than the weighting given by the government. I probably sent my personal CPI into negative territory by shopping for a better P & C rate.

     

    Anyone can chop their grocery costs way down by buying when items are significantly discounted, using coupons. For me, I can add to those savings by buying non-perishable items on sale when the store gives me an additional 10% off due to my age (60+: senior's day). My CPI number will be different than yours or anyone else on this board. But the government can not measure CPI on a national basis in that manner.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    >Accepting information that isn't true when one knows it isn't true and to continue to perpetuate the lie isn't beneficial to anyone either.

     

    You can take issue with the way CPI is calculated, and use whatever metric you want to measure inflation for yourself. Maybe what you choose indicates that, in fact, there is high inflation. I'm down with that. However, I happen to believe the CPI is a good indicator.

     

    But calling a metric like the CPI a "lie", or saying it "isn't true" doesn't make any sense. CPI is what it is; a figure that measures the price level for a specific basket of goods. Denying that or implying that it is some opaque tool for corrupt bureaucrats to fool the public is the real misinformation.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    1234

     

    I am an engineer and if I use anything as a metric as data, I don't change it to my likings because I don't like it
    25 Jun 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @Dnorm

     

    I'd argue CPI is manipulated, & it's been well known & discussed among economists & in news articles. The basket was changed to keep the number down. Better more universal shopping baskets were proposed, & research has been published on them, & they'd be higher.

     

    I'm not going to claim it's "corrupt bureaucrats to fool the public." That's a "loaded" image. It is not a cut & dry factual element of math. It's a stat & stats are a developed number.

     

    In my life, I'm paying more for basics & less for random junk I don't tend to buy anyway. So my income that's CPI based, isn't keeping up. I'm also having to recycle more as the bottles for everything shrinks...which reminds me, it's recycling day today.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    >I am an engineer and if I use anything as a metric as data, I don't change it to my likings because I don't like it

     

    Perhaps it should still include the amount we spend on horseshoes, telegraphs and floppy disks then?

     

    Point is, the metric has to evolve. Saying it's changed because they "don't like it" requires some kind of evidence.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DNORM

     

    Do you approve of the new formula they will use for the GDP figure then?

     

    Curious as that hasn't been discussed on this blog yet!
    25 Jun 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    >I'd argue CPI is manipulated, & it's been well known & discussed among economists & in news articles.
    ---

     

    I agree, though I might use a word less inflammatory than "manipulated".

     

    >The basket was changed to keep the number down
    ---
    That's one interpretation. I choose to believe it was changed to be more relevant. I guess I don't understand what the point would be of manipulation. Unless this was done on a consistent basis, whatever basket they choose would represent the rate of change of prices.

     

    If it feels too low for you, then you can use CPI+2%. Or CPI+5%. But as long as we know what basket they are using, CPI is a useful measure. It doesn't matter to me what the figure is; the change in the metric is more valuable. Just my opinion.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is my thought. if a retired persons raise is dependent on the CPI and the govt wants a lower number then *manipulated* sounds like a fitting definition to me..
    25 Jun 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    IT,,

     

    Bingo !!! A winner every time !! ----- :)
    25 Jun 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    @curls
    >So my income that's CPI based, isn't keeping up.
    @IT
    >Here is my thought. if a retired persons raise is dependent on the CPI

     

    That's a good point.

     

    I suppose that is relevant to many, admittedly not myself (yet). Of course, I'll snake my way out of it by arguing that isn't a fault of the CPI, but rather the government for tying income to it ;)
    25 Jun 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    @IT
    >Do you approve of the new formula they will use for the GDP figure then?

     

    As long as any new calculation is a) rational and b) documented, and hence can be adjusted historically for comparison, sure. Go for it

     

    I haven't read a whole lot on it, but if I recall the goal was to modernize the calculation (obviously to the benefit of the US) to account for more intangibles (R&D, art, IP). Makes sense to me.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DNORM

     

    No need to snake out of anything. That is the strength of this blog. We all learn off of each other in a decent dialog. No attacking, no insulting. ( yeah I know I did it yesterday).

     

    I have learned the hard way. You just need to be open minded and for a while I was stubborn. I am older and I thought I knew it all. Turns out I know very little with the help from this group.

     

    "Of course, I'll snake my way out of it by arguing that isn't a fault of the CPI, but rather the government for tying income to it ;) "

     

    Now just re read what you posted and think what a few of us have been trying to get across. Yup. Who tied the number to it??? WHO BENEFITTED ??
    25 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    It's always follow the money... always.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    dnorm,

     

    Your definition of the CPI calculation you posted above is mostly accurate but incomplete. Another metric used to calculate the CPI is rental rates. The largest component (33%) of CPI is cost of shelter and is determined by homeowners who are surveyed by the BLS and asked what amount would they rent their home for. I don't consider this a very scientific metric as it is too subjective.

     

    The Major Problem With CPI And How It Hurts The Economy
    http://onforb.es/11Zr9kZ

     

    As for your question about what would be the point of manipulation, consider this directly from the BLS:

     

    "The CPI is often used to adjust consumers' income payments (for example, Social Security) to adjust income eligibility levels for government assistance and to automatically provide cost-of-living wage adjustments to millions of American workers. As a result of statutory action the CPI affects the income of millions of Americans. Over 50 million Social Security beneficiaries, and military and Federal Civil Service retirees, have cost-of-living adjustments tied to the CPI. In addition, eligibility criteria for millions of food stamp recipients, and children who eat lunch at school, are affected by changes in the CPI. Many collective bargaining agreements also tie wage increases to the CPI."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/148hmwi

     

    So a lower CPI restricts the amount of any increases in those payments. Do you see the motivation to keep it low?

     

    Furthermore, CPI is inversely correlated to GDP, so a lower CPI makes for a higher GDP.

     

    "The GDP, is one of many economic indicators investors can use to gauge the growth rate and strength of an economy. The CPI plays a role in the determination of the real GDP; therefore, manipulation of the CPI could imply manipulation of the GDP because the CPI is used to deflate some of the nominal GDP components for the effects of inflation. CPI and GDP have an inverse relationship, so a lower CPI - and its inverse effect on GDP - could suggest to investors that the economy is stronger and healthier than it really is."

     

    http://bit.ly/148hmwk
    25 Jun 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Of course the CPI needs to be the lowest possible it can, the trillions of unfunded liabilities make it a priority!
    25 Jun 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    And TAXES are NOT included in the CPI.

     

    I think it would virtually impossible to do the hedonic adjustments for healthcare. I'd hate to have that responsibility.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • JAMES CARLINI
    , contributor
    Comments (3866) | Send Message
     
    Southgent1951 -
    You talk about saving money. You can only go so far - whether it be with food or with Insurance. (I do agree with your philosophy though - as I am always seeing if I can get better pricing on items)

     

    What I have found in "looking for coupons" is that most of the incented items are so high to begin with -even with $.50 - $2.00 off, the price is still higher than the store brand - or even other brands. So do you waste time in cutting coupons or just switch brands?

     

    I switched brands - and anything where I did not feel to be the same quality I would go back to the name brand and try to find another store where it was a little cheaper (if possible).

     

    As to insurance, you can always save money by switching carriers but my fear is that you may not get as good a payout with other carriers. I took my car to a repair shop and talked extensively with the shop manager.

     

    He said that many cut-rate carriers will NOT pay for a real repair (taking all the steps and replacing parts with manufacturer's parts). Where they save is that they put in third-party parts that might not be the same quality as well as using cheaper paints, etc.

     

    Can you save some money on insurances - sure, but make sure you are not sacrificing any quality in coverage. You can increase the deductible from $100 to $500 and that will save you some money but most people have already done that. Some are looking at going to $1000 deductible and that might save you money as well. If you have an accident, be prepared to pay that deductible which some forget after they have upped it.

     

    Some of the "save money" suggestions that are put out by "consumer experts" are for those who never shopped outside of Nieman Marcus before. Can you do better than Nieman Marcus prices without sacrificing quality? Of course. But, for those of us already at that point of going to other stores, going to estate sales and doing all the other money-saving ideas, it is hard to find something new.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @JC

     

    First WELCOME.

     

    I agree with the car insurance. Even warranty insurance though Buffets GEICO. My mechanic had to change my radiator and I have a $250 deductible for extended warranty insurance.

     

    First, some mechanics won't even take it. The one that does, who my family has been going to for 50 years, said I have no idea the crap he has to go through on the phone.

     

    In fact they told him that they can get the radiator cheaper then what he wanted to charge GEICO. My mechanic said fine, send it to me... They of course backed down and let him do the work. But he said he is only doing it as a favor because we have been loyal customers for 3 generations now !

     

    So some behind the scenes shenanigans for sure.

     

    Great first post !
    25 Jun 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    dnorm

     

    The gov't uses expensive PhDs and MBAs to change the metrics to shortchange people......I know how they get the numbers by being innovative just like the safe mortgages bonds
    25 Jun 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget all those little extra fees also.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Running deficits is actually fiscal policy stimulus and Congress is on course to add $10.1 trillion in federal deficits to the gross debt over the next ten years. This virtually assures no Recessions in that time frame.

     

    Debt Wall & GDP outlook charts: http://bit.ly/vIM1wQ
    26 Jun 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    The discrepancy rests with one's income level. To poor folk, apparent inflation is high 'cuz much of it affects the staples on which they depend. The middle class never notices inflation 'cuz it's mostly equivalent to a rounding error. They literally don't even notice it...
    26 Jun 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    James: The other P & C carrier was Safeco which is part of Liberty Mutual, the 5th largest P & C insurer in the U.S.

     

    I would not know how Travelers would handle a claim on my house since I never have had one.

     

    The only claim made on my auto occurred over a decade ago, when a BP car wash tore the spoiler off my trunk. BP denied liability. Apparently, the Incredible Hulk came into the car wash and tore it off. BP can not be held liable for anything done by the Hulk.

     

    Anyways, it cost a $1000 to repair the damage. When I went to pick up the car, Travelers had not sent a check to repair company so I had to give them a check to get my car. Eventually, Travelers got around to sending a check.

     

    As to coupons, I will not use store brands on certain items irrespective of the savings, including coffee, cereal, and toilet paper. I will frequently have a coupon for those items. I have noticed that P & G has been aggressively discounting many of their products at the local Kroger, including two ply Charmin tissue (12 double rolls in a bag) for $4.99 to $5.99, so that is when I stock up. I checked the WMT online price which was $6.97.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • FreeStateYank
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    As to CPI, I do feel there has been editing to the basket in such a way that it represents a larger disconnect from what the average American 'feels' in his wallet.

     

    Which brings another point, any of these tools used to measure economic activity are limited in their accuracy and real worth. Why? Because if the general public isn't feeling as positive as the economic data indicates, it won't make them spend any more.

     

    Even with the staggering growth of 'free' things to the public, it is my belief spending is continuing to be suppressed. In part by what is called 'economic repression'. Crappy saving rates, continued employment uncertainty- including public worries about the costs of BOcare, etc...

     

    The majority of Americans live paycheck to paycheck anyway. In as much as they can, people are keeping powder dry. Whether it's paying off debt [as we've seen since the crisis although a good part of that wasn't payoff, but write offs by debt holders], avoiding taking on additional debt, and/or curtailed spending...

     

    In the meantime, though, there is always something 'on sale' in the equities market. The fun and challenge is shaping ones investments to the best of ones ability to take advantage of the real bargains...
    6 Jul 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREESTATEYANK

     

    Welcome to our group!. Glad to see you here. We are already up to chapter 22 or 23 so please catch up if you would like and join us in the new discussions..

     

    You made some great points. We also have a READING CHAPTER separate from our daily discussions and if you have any sites or books that you deem helpful please feel free to post them there.

     

    Thanks!
    6 Jul 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    I don't think there is much evidence that the additional money injected into the economy is doing anything other than laying around and catching some rays.

     

    This is shown by the dramatic decline in the velocity of M2 money since the FED sent QE into overdrive on March 18, 2009.

     

    Velocity of M2 Money Stock
    http://bit.ly/x0cMMT
    2009-04-01 1.657
    2013-01-01 1.532
    Down 7.54%

     

    M2 Money Stock
    http://bit.ly/rsTWKo
    2010-03-22 8472.5
    2013-06-10 10590.2
    Up 25%

     

    Sure, that is a ton more money in the system but it is not moving which explains the anomalous slowdown in M2 velocity during the current recovery.

     

    The liquidity part of QE is not needed by the real economy. It is a by product of the FED's efforts to keep intermediate and long term rates low, primarily to help the over leveraged households refinance their main debt at abnormally low mortgage rates and to secondarily to permit corporations to do the same. For the most part that effort has been successful for publicly traded corporations and most households except for those still in negative equity and unable to refinance through the HARP program.

     

    Possibly, the credit squeeze on China's shadow banking system will put a bid into treasuries for awhile, slowing down the rate normalization process for the time being. Hopefully, we have at least reached a temporary plateau for the 10 year year treasury in the 2.5% to 2.6% range.
    24 Jun 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    I believe the mistake BB made is to treat the 08-09 financial crises as a liquidity instead of a solvency problem; at that point the economy did not need any stimulus to get the economy going but rather to address the solvency of the big banks not by bailing them out but by breaking them out and let them eat their junk mortgages bonds.
    Only by restructuring and breaking up the investment banks, the bad debt can be repudiated from the economy and take the losses all at once and in a couple years the economy will be ready to grow again.
    Instead with the Fed buying all the bad debt, the deflationary effects of all this bad debt will go on forever and forever.
    I hope I did not lose you with my Italian.
    24 Jun 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    Rin:

     

    Yes, they tried it your way, almost exactly, in the early 1930's. That worked out just swell.

     

    Now, I do admit that it's a very purist and puritanical way to make sure all the bad actors are suitably punished, which always seems to be an underlying objective of such proposals, but what is conveniently overlooked is that the collateral damage to such an approach is enormous. And, contrary to populist beliefs (wishes?) it's not the wealthy and "robber barons" (banksters?) that are crushed in the resulting deflationary depressions, even should they be brief, it's the average citizen, who finds himself unemployed, unable to access scarce cash, and often losing his home and other assets which are foreclosed and/or seized in bankruptcy.

     

    And, for the cherry on the cake, who do you think buys up all those bargain-sale assets for pennies on the dollar? Yep, those very same culprits that were sought to be punished by allowing the system to collapse.

     

    It may not be fun or make for exciting growth rates for a while, but it's far better to amortize excess debt over time than to have it drop like a nuclear bomb on all of society. Slower growth, and even some inflation, is a small price to pay in comparison to the alternative.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    Tack

     

    thank you for the reply and your comments; I have to disagree with you because I don't see more debt on top debt as a solution for the economy; the Fed does not have any way out and the end result will be the same but much worse; what you saying is to continue with the status quo and wait another 20 or 30 years because the economy will take care of itself; good luck with that!! look at Japan, starting on 3rd decade but yes, we are special as always
    25 Jun 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    RINA: Most of the TARP funds were used by the federal government to buy cumulative preferred stock issued by the banks that paid a 5% dividend for the first five years after issuance and 9% thereafter. In addition, the government received warrants as a kicker.

     

    As of the last tally, the government was ahead by about $40 billion on those TARP disbursements, taking into account the preferred stock dividends and the profits realized on the warrants.

     

    Toxic asset purchases were a small part of what actually happened and centered mostly on AIG, as I recall, an insurance company, that wrote credit default swaps on CBO's. I believe that the government realized a nice profit on its AIG bailout.

     

    http://bloom.bg/19AESEm

     

    The black holes are and have been Fannie and Freddie that had to be nationalized by the Federal government. There was no alternative remaining in 2008 other than their seizure by the federal government.

     

    In my opinion, the financial system was near collapse in October 2008 and would have collapsed without massive government and central bank intervention, causing without question in my opinion another Great Depression that would have brought a great deal of suffering to billions throughout the world for at least a decade.

     

    So, I have to disagree with all of your points. I was there and was well aware of everything that was happening, virtually every minute of everyday, and I am well aware of how close the world came to financial Armageddon.

     

    The U.S. jobs picture is on the upswing; real GDP is growing; households have successfully deleveraged in the aggregate as shown by the DSR and FOR ratios; the S & P 500 recently hit an all time high; consumer net worth has returned to pre-2007 levels with a 3 trillion dollar rise in the 2013 first quarter; the services part of the economy is and has been in an expansion mode; household is declining in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP; consumer spending is robust; automobile sales are good; and housing prices are returning to trendline at a rapid pace. None of the foregoing would presently exist if the government had followed your prescription in 2008.

     

    Trillions of dollars were incinerated in any event through that time frame and your remedy would have only added trillions more. How much do you think the FDIC had to reimburse depositiors after a massive financial collapse even if the bondholders had been wiped totally out and no one else received a dime?

     

    DSR Chart:
    http://bit.ly/MiNM1D

     

    FED Z.1 Release: Household Net Worth:
    http://1.usa.gov/KDf0sF

     

    Richmond FED Charts:
    http://bit.ly/10BKMVr

     

    Page 4 Real GDP
    Page 5 Retail Sales
    Page 8 Sales of Autos and Trucks
    Page 9 Existing Home Sales
    Page 14 Real Investment in Equipment and Software
    Page 18 Industrial Production
    Page 19 Capacity Utilization
    Page 22: Manufacturer's New Orders
    Page 23: Core Capital Goods
    Page 25: NonFarm Payroll Employment
    Page 29: Aggregate Weekly Hours Index

     

    ISM Non-manufacturing: Business Activity Index
    http://bit.ly/X6x1b6

     

    Household Debt to GDP for United States
    http://bit.ly/X6wZju

     

    Real Disposable Personal Income
    http://bit.ly/Z48N5f

     

    Real Gross Domestic Product
    http://bit.ly/VeK1dl

     

    Corporate Profits After Tax
    http://bit.ly/NZJkph

     

    Corporate Net Cash Flow
    http://bit.ly/U68AIF

     

    Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private
    http://bit.ly/13rAYgC

     

    4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
    http://bit.ly/UO7THj
    25 Jun 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    Rin:

     

    Aside from getting into a long discussion of how Fed mechanics work and why the increase in money supplies can be reversed at an appropriate time, let it just suffice to point out the vast differences between the U.S. and Japan, which make using it as a harbinger stagnation and deflation for the U.S. incomparable:

     

    Japan:
    -- decreasing population
    -- savings culture; little internal consumption
    -- no natural resources
    -- huge energy importer
    -- completely export-driven economy
    -- ferocious export competition from China and Asian Tigers
    -- overvalued Yen

     

    U.S.:
    -- increasing population
    -- consumption culture (although debt-to-GDP at 30-year lows)
    -- abundant natural resources
    -- about to become net energy exporter
    -- economy driven internally and by exports
    -- also export competition, but less impactful on US. economy
    -- undervalued dollar

     

    The U.S. may have its own problems, and it does, but looking like Japan isn't one of them.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Rin,
    Have to respectfully disagree on the blanket statement that the Fed does not have a way out.. IMHO as i stated in many missives no one knows how this will to assume that it will end badly is just that an assumption. Its an unknown and many assign unknown as having a "negative connotation

     

    IMO those that are using (im not suggesting that u are ) that as a backdrop to their investment strategy have missed this market and will continue to do so . There is much more happening around us that is being ignored..

     

    Don't have to take my words-- the market has spoken about that already ....
    26 Jun 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    thank you for your reply and comments with details; I just don't believe that our economy is growing due to the following:
    1- growth is based on a high defense budget and US fighting wars all over the world; I don't consider that growth where people benefit; if you like this sector check out (KTOS)
    2- people excited about housing recovery- I just don't trust all this data about recovery because a couple years housing had to be revised down going back 2 or 3 years that had been released by responsible agencies
    3- yes, car sales are up but to people who can't afford them and loan periods are up to what, 7 or 8 years?
    4- if economy is growing why people on food stamps are at an all time high?
    26 Jun 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    RINA: I trust the data from CoreLogic, a private company that is wired into the register of deeds offices throughout the nation, and knows just about everything happening in residential real estate.

     

    If you own a home, you can sign up for their free service called eproperty watch, which will send you emails about home sales in your neighborhood and provide estimates of your home's value based on comparable sales in the neighborhood based primarily on square footage.

     

    http://bit.ly/11vh6ba

     

    Based on three emails received over the past two months, notifying me of recent sales and prices, CoreLogic increased the estimate of my home's value back to 2007 levels.

     

    The April 2013 CoreLogic Home price index rose 12.3% Y-O-Y:

     

    http://bit.ly/124B5dc

     

    I have no reason to question the accuracy of those CLGX reports which are very encouraging.

     

    As to food stamps, the 2009 Recovery Act provided a temporary boost to the food stamp program that is set to expire in November 2013. About two thirds of the beneficiaries are children, the elderly and the disabled.

     

    http://bit.ly/13Cv7X2

     

    Part of the reasons why SNAP benefits have increased even with an improving economy are explored in a March 2013 WSJ article:

     

    http://bit.ly/124B5df

     

    Some of the increase has to do with the relaxation of eligibility standards.

     

    The Great Recession certainly caused more people to fall into poverty. And, without question, jobs are not plentiful but there are also powerful economic incentives for people not to work or to take the time and effort to learn new skills.

     

    A recent CBS report noted that there were over 3 million unfilled skilled jobs due to a lack of qualified applicants, which does not surprise me. Our educational system is not geared to training people for the good jobs that are available.

     

    60 Minutes Report:
    http://cbsn.ws/YsjxZZ
    26 Jun 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    Tack
    thank you for your reply and comments; I have to disagree for the following reasons:
    1- population- we are becoming a country of low paying skilled workers and this is going to lower wages; I don't know how this is going to benefit our country but increase the liabilities of underfunded welfare costs
    2- consumption culture- just wait until the VAT is passed here and let me know how you feel about it
    3- abundant natural resources- except for oil/nat gas, we will be dependent on most of everything; most of the mines are what 80, 100 years old? mining is a dead industry in this country and it takes up to 20 years to find, mine, and get permits; coal will be illegal soon
    4- net energy exporter- this is all hype; a couple years all this fracking was not good for the environment and all at once no issues; people are getting all kinds of chemicals in their water faucets in Pennsylvania; fracking wells production decays up to 70% in the first year and oil companies have to drill many, many wells for replacement of lost production; billions of $$ have been declared impaired by oil companies
    5- yes, we can export : coal, wheat, corn, cotton
    6- undervalued dollar- people keep saying that the US$ index is getting strong but I checked a chart and index has been at less then 84 for a few years and it doesn't look like it will reach 90; with gold way down why hasn't $ index gone up? I see troubles for the index ahead; anyway BB wants a weak $

     

    Sorry I have to go to do some moonshine of italian wine at Coney Island
    26 Jun 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    FG

     

    I learned that being a contrarian has helped me in the markets with all this biased information; Jim Rogers says being a contrarian is the best policy; yes, there is much more being ignored and today I saw an article that the BIS estimates there are something like $440 trillions of interest rates swaps worldwide and Buffett calls them weapons of mass destruction...we'll see what happens
    26 Jun 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    A Brooklyn boy?
    26 Jun 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    Rina: The DXY is weighted in the EURO (58%) and the Yen (close to 14%). The EURO has been ranged bound against the USD and the YEN has been volatile due to the BOJ's monetary policies:

     

    USD/JPY
    http://yhoo.it/1cospTP;range=1y

     

    The Australian Dollar which has been noticeably week against the USD is not included in the DXY basket, nor are any of the emerging market currencies which have lost close to 10% against the USD in recent weeks, including but not limited to the Brazilian Reel, India's Rupee, and the Mexican Peso. The CAD which has also been week only has a 9.1% weighting.

     

    DXY Components:
    http://bit.ly/1cospTU

     

    Brazilian Reel:
    http://yhoo.it/1coso29

     

    Mexican Peso:
    http://yhoo.it/1coso2d#symbol=;range=1y;comp...

     

    India's Rupee:
    http://yhoo.it/1cosqab#symbol=;range=1y;comp...

     

    Australian Dollar:
    http://yhoo.it/1coso2j#symbol=;range=1y;comp...
    26 Jun 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    yes fuggetaboutit
    27 Jun 2013, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Rin,

     

    Good to be a contrarian, ironic cause "my" contrarian side had me adding and aggressively buying last Oct- Nov to the point of having my lowest cash position in years.. I've since raised cash with the advance since then but remain solidly invested. No need to go into details but as my comments here and elsewhere reveal my position that we are in Secular Bull market.

     

    Respect your views as you responded to Tack & Southgent , my only takeaway is that we are in two different worlds when speaking of the markets.

     

    As you stated we shall see what happens , that's what makes markets .

     

    Best to you ....Be well - Happy investing ...
    27 Jun 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    FG

     

    thank you for your reply and the kind words; I am in for the long term through thick or thin like Buffett because my wife has good German genes and she can use the stocks; we are just learning from each other and I am learning from you, of course, south, tack, and many others; just a warning- like many of you mention the financial markets almost collapsed in 08-09 with just $250B-$300B subprime bad mortgages, don't assume that the Fed can do the same again with $ trillions and trillions of derivatives floating around.
    As an aside, since you are into agriculture maybe you should check out (BWEL), which has farmland in California, grows crops, cotton, and has water rights by the $ billions; I got a few shares a couple months ago but this is for the long, long term; please due your DD
    27 Jun 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    I agree SG. It does seem the latest QE round is just pushing on a string. Even companies aren't spending unless it is on dividends, stock buybacks or acquisitions. It is like they see a soft economy and aren't as interested in expanding as they are holding what they have and trying not to build up excess inventories. More to come later on that front after earnings season.

     

    BTW, VIX end back up closing at 20.11. And, I was wrong this was the 3rd trading day over 20.
    24 Jun 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    This interest you?
    I opened a starter position a couple weeks ago to hold, not a short term trade.

     

    (GLP)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jun 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    OMG! Did you see that chart! Am I missing something here? $20B in revenue vs a $1B market cap? Why is that?

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    Look at this:

     

    Data source S&P Capital IQ

     

    EPS

     

    1) 2013 $ 3.10 E
    2) 2014 $ 3.04 E
    3) 2015 $ 4.35 E
    4) 2016 $ 6.23 E
    5) 2017 $ 8.93 E
    6) 2018 $12.80 E
    7) 2019 $18.34 E
    8) 2020 $26.28 E
    9) 2021 $37.66 E
    10) 2022 $53.96 E

     

    I am taking my first bite tomorrow. :-)

     

    Thanks!!

     

    Krustyman
    24 Jun 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    As I mentioned earlier instead of watching Fed, China, et al , and all associated noise , a quick look at where we were and where we are now ..

     

    at the March 2009 lows the S&P 500 was at 666 (sorry southgent) with $49 of earnings, translating to a P/E of 13.6. If 2013 earnings come in at the estimated $110, then at 1600 the S&P 500 sells at a 14.4 P/E. .....................

     

    Now its all about "perception" and "reality" , reality is what is stated above , however markets are now in the "perception" mode . We can stay in that "mode" for a while, but during this timeframe , opportunities will be presented..

     

    I learned a long time ago.. Stay disciplined and focused and u will survive, those that try to force things and don’t invest with conviction will eventually fail......
    Just my .02 for today........... :)
    24 Jun 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Short day eh?? How was the beach? lol
    24 Jun 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    F & G: The low on March 6, 2009 is clearly shown as 666.79, not that other number that you and TACK insist on you using.

     

    Mar 6, 2009 684.04 699.09 666.79 683.38 683.38

     

    http://yhoo.it/1a8Mtga

     

    Revelation 13:
    [18] Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

     

    There are no numbers after than period.

     

    http://bit.ly/1a8Muk4
    24 Jun 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    I have it on good authority that the apostle John usually rounded. The four horsemen were really 4.3.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    Funny, I usually do the same thing when my wife asks me what I weigh...

     

    Does that make me a Saint?
    25 Jun 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    I'll have to defer to your wife on that question, IT.
    25 Jun 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    Uh, never mind. I got a good feeling what the answer will be.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    IT..

     

    LOL... computer & network issues .. most of day ,, beach tomorrow aft. if market is in sell mode -- :)
    24 Jun 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Southgent,,
    I stand corrected ,please accept my amended comment ;)

     

    As I mentioned earlier instead of watching Fed, China, et al , and all associated noise , a quick look at where we were and where we are now ..

     

    at the March 2009 lows the S&P 500 was at 666.79 with $49 of earnings, translating to a P/E of 13.6. If 2013 earnings come in at the estimated $110, then at 1600 the S&P 500 sells at a 14.4 P/E. .....................

     

    Now its all about "perception" and "reality" , reality is what is stated above , however markets are now in the "perception" mode . We can stay in that "mode" for a while, but during this timeframe , opportunities will be presented..

     

    I learned a long time ago.. Stay disciplined and focused and u will survive, those that try to force things and don’t invest with conviction will eventually fail......
    Just my .02 for today........... :)
    24 Jun 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WOW.

     

    I went out for a few hours and come back to a quiet posting board.

     

    Guess I will read a book !
    24 Jun 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    IT: Maybe they have all retired to their fallout shelters for the evening. I am still working.

     

    I just checked the Asian markets. Japan, Australia and Indonesia were up slightly in early trading. The SSE composite was down 1.65%, much better than yesterday's rout. HK was down less than .5% and had been briefly in positive territory. HK appears to be taking its cue now from the Mainland.

     

    I noted earlier today that institutions appeared to draw a line in the sand on the thirty year treasury today. TLT, the ETF for the 20+ treasury moved into positive territory around 2 E.D.T. and ended in positive territory for the day.

     

    It appears to me that both the 20 and 30 year treasuries are much closer to normalized rates than the 10 year. Inflation expectations have been coming down across the TIP maturity spectrum. The 20 year TIP closed today at a 2.15% break-even, a market forecast that the annual average rate of inflation will be only 2.15% over the next 20 years. The nominal 20 year closed at 3.27%.

     

    While I am just guessing now, the treasury yield curve may end up flatlining at 10+ year or even slightly tilt down moving from the 10 year out to the 20-30 year maturities, when the 10 year finally normalizes to around 4% based on the current 1.93% annual average inflation forecast priced into the 10 year TIP.

     

    If that is prescient, this would explain why the long treasury stabilized today. That rate may not have that much further to rise even with the elimination of QE.

     

    The 30 year treasury closed at 3.56%.

     

    Just a thought.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Could be a deflationary signal??
    25 Jun 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    IT: One thing is for certain. There is nothing in the pricing of the 10, 20 and 30 year TIPs that indicates any concern whatsoever about problematic inflation, such as that experienced in the 1965-1982 time period.

     

    Investors see only benign inflation numbers as far out as 30 years. This may change of course, but the inflation expectations for 10 to 30 years have basically flatlined in the TIP prices.

     

    Those expectations are not yet flashing significant concerns about deflation but do indicate to me more of a concern about deflation possibilities than inflation.

     

    As I have noted, this kind of low inflation forecast is a positive for dividend growers, particularly those that increase their dividends in the high single digits or higher.

     

    The average annual inflation forecast embodied in the 5 year TIP forecast is only 1.62%. On 1/2/07, that forecast was at 2.27%.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    The missing piece seems to be wage inflation. Workers just can't seem to get traction on wages or even job security.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    And though it's not the indicator of inflation(Not yet) ,higher prices at the retail level are definitely eroding people's paycheck. No higher wages,higher cost of living= NO Recovery. What it appears we are seeing is a shrinking middle class.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    My Debt Wall model is presently forecasting a 5.6% yield on 10-yr Treasuries by 2023 ... a high figure driven mostly by bond rating downgrades not normalization or inflation.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY

     

    I believe a gentlemen named SOUTH might comment on this..
    26 Jun 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration. Article that shows how to get exposure to markets outside the US, as a continuation of the past discussion between myself, Curls and SG:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Jun 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, so we get GOOD reports this morning yet the markets really aren't reacting yet, why??

     

    Is this "good news is bad news" because the FED might stop the buying ??
    25 Jun 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Good news means higher rates, and people are terrified of higher rates, apparently, even though we've had booming economies at 9% rates.

     

    Rationality washed down the creek a couple weeks ago and is still bobbing in the current.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Honestly, I am really thinking hard about your hysteria points made a few times. Looking at those remarks soon might be a good entry point long term,

     

    I did add to my (PSEC) yesterday in fact, To me that was a no brainer. So I am tipping my toes back in !!
    25 Jun 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Two more to consider: NRF & RAS
    25 Jun 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Thanks! (NRF) (RAS)

     

    I put it in brackets for others to see what they are !
    25 Jun 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Insiders Buying piece. Includes (PSEC)..

     

    http://onforb.es/1aKvDDb
    25 Jun 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ Tact

     

    "Rationality washed down the creek a couple weeks ago and is still bobbing in the current. "

     

    Can we get it a life vest? I'm just happy the shift has happened, so eventually we can get closer back to normal real.

     

    @ IT

     

    Is that why Bernake was drinking so much water? - he was surrounded by it? (I still think he was nervous over his interactions with Obama, and not over his announcements, but the joke had to be made.)
    25 Jun 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    "GOOD reports this morning yet the markets really aren't reacting yet,"

     

    I look at stock suggestions, they look good. I can't buy till the macro market feels more right to me. I'm waiting for more drop before buying into anything. 5% wasn't enough pullback.

     

    I'm seeing a lot of articles in on market sites, moving some to defensive, i.e. cash. ...and declaring even if new 10 days are up, a bear is in place.

     

    There's tons of money ready to get back in. Yet, IMHO I suspect there are a lot waiting it out more.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I agree with you , however I followed (PSEC) through the sell off and it really did not get banged around much. Add to that the point TACK made that higher interest rates actually are beneficial to this stock made me do a small long term play.

     

    The dividend was key to me. If I am wrong Tack please correct me.

     

    Thanks!
    25 Jun 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    And....PSEC's next 4 dividends are already declared.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    It,

     

    just more volatility this week, IMHO we are just testing the upper and lower ends of the trading range here.. a tug of war -

     

    A total "gut" feeling tells me we will probe more to the downside , maybe after another short rally to 1600? . LT'ers will have opportunities if they remain patient..
    25 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    No real support until 1532, so we have at least 3% to blow off if that's the game we're playing.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    glad u weighed in here, and would like to see that add'l 3% move.

     

    If today is any indication, most of my emails are already lamenting that they may have missed opportunity to add or initiate.. That simply suggests my notion that we wil further probe the downside... :)
    25 Jun 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    The way I handle these situations is that if issues I am tracking have already fallen significantly, I'll add some at the current depressed prices; if they fall further I'll add more. I try not to make an all-or-nothing guess on what the market may do, then find myself not having added any at prices that were good values already.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Tack, i do believe that is a good strategy. Buying depressed assets out of whack because of short term gyrations and taking advantage of that fear to make a "killing" later on. Buying out of favor stocks is the best strategy. Case in point homebuilder stocks. I was buying the housing equities aggressively in late 2009 and all of 2010. This was a time in which it was out of favor to buy this sector.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Tack,,

     

    Agree, setting targets and tracking on an individual basis , is way to go.

     

    as stated near impossible to pick bottom or turnaround in a selloff ..

     

    25 Jun 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CG

     

    Are you following any specific stocks or investments now?
    25 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    FG & Tact

     

    "as stated near impossible to pick bottom or turnaround in a selloff .."

     

    I've seen this a lot. That there's some indicators of tops like parabolics, but bottoms are much harder.

     

    My contrarian question (I'll keep things lively)... are there any indicators of near a bottom or more importantly, heading back up? (The point of timing in my view isn't to hit tops or bottoms, but to cut out some of the middle slide.)
    25 Jun 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    Funny, I have always found it easier to find bottoms, or at least sure-bet value plays, than to gauge market tops. In spite of the headiness that accompanies market tops, it doesn't usually manifest itself in the same kid of unbridled, simultaneous glee that accompanies the orgy of despair on the downside. I guess, by that, I am saying that there's always someone expressing a cautionary note, as things go higher, but the din is overwhelming that the world is ending at bottoms.

     

    Without offering any formula for finding overall market bottoms, i do have a suggestion for finding bottoms or near bottoms, at times, in individual issues you may be tracking. If something is caught in a downdraft I look for the steepness to suddenly increase to near vertical, with the price plummeting (usually early in the day) on much-higher-than-normal volume. In one detects that kind of action, representing a selling climax, and then an immediate reversal on buying volume, that's usually a good indicator that a bottom has been put in. I almost always take or add to positions in such conditions.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    Wow, that's nice & detailed & specific. Something I can really dig into! Very interesting set of signals too. Thank you :) !
    26 Jun 2013, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Home Prices up double digits in San Francisco. It always has been a hot market....

     

    The increase in the case shiller index was 12.1% y-y.

     

    http://bit.ly/18dFORl
    25 Jun 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @Folks

     

    WELCOME COMMON GUY AND MAYBE SAY A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE BLOG FOR HIM?

     

    THANKS!
    25 Jun 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    IT, ya don't gotta shout at us about it.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    SORRY, I did not see the caps locked on. I am trying to multi task today. (cooking lunch)
    25 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ Common Guy

     

    Welcome! San Fran is always a hot market. Some of that is the land issue. It doesn't have the same room to easily expand. With earthquakes, building codes are expensive too.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: Buying U.S. multinationals is probably the best way for individual investors to gain exposure to foreign markets. This is nothing new.

     

    By buying a U.S. multinational using USDs on a U.S. stock exchange, the investor avoids the currency risks inherent in the share price of foreign ADRs.

     

    A U.S. investor in KO or GIS, for example, only has indirect exposure to currency risks, as reported profits and revenues can be impacted by the rise and fall of the USD against foreign currencies when the multinational converts those profits back into USDs for accounting purposes. The profits earned overseas stay overseas so the currency conversion is an accounting entry.

     

    Generally speaking, a strong U.S.D. will have a negative impact on reported earnings and revenues for U.S. multinationals but that impact may be offset by hedges and the relative weightings of sales and profits.

     

    The Euro has been steady against the USD, mostly range bound in the 1.28 to 1.32 to 1, so I would not expect much currency impact on profits for sales in the Eurozone, but emerging market currencies have generally fallen a lot against the greenback this quarter.

     

    EUR/USD
    http://yhoo.it/1aKpo1X;range=1y

     

    A strong U.S.D. will generally benefit importers and hurt exporters. Prices of imported goods have fallen in 11 of the past 12 months.

     

    May Report on Import Prices from Government:

     

    " Overall import prices fell 1.9 percent for the year ended in May, and have not recorded a 12-month advance since the index rose 0.8 percent between April 2011 and April 2012."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1aKpo21
    25 Jun 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    I mentioned this one a few days ago.. (UAN) an MLP, now yielding 11% with recent rate hysteria sell off.. Company has reitereated distrbution for '13... In the fertilizer space which adds diversity to a portfolio..

     

    Full Disc. I own UAN , added a bit more yesterday ,
    25 Jun 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    How do you calibrate UAN's value and earnings stream? They are relatively new. I note, already, they've had some significant variability in their dividend declarations, so I'm wondering what the projected yield really means.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1684) | Send Message
     
    I don't think BB will like 30 yr mortgage rates above 5%. This will definitely slow housing and could have the potential to dip us back into recession. So many more people will not qualify with the higher rates.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: Most households have already refinanced their mortgages. The laggards are mostly those who have negative equity and do not qualify for HARP refinancing.

     

    A 5% thirty year mortgage rate might have a temporary impact on new home sales but it is still an extremely favorable rate based on history. I do not see a return to that rate to be an impediment to housing other than possibly a temporary basis.

     

    I just checked the average rates at Freddie Mac's site;

     

    http://bit.ly/UiFHsA

     

    As of the last weekly survey, the 30 year was at 3.93% and the 15 year was at 3.04%.

     

    Freddie Mac has historic 30 year mortgage rates going back to 1971. A 5% rate looks really good to me:

     

    http://bit.ly/14Vx92B
    25 Jun 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1684) | Send Message
     
    SG51:

     

    I just checked Wells Fargo mortgage rates and they are showing 4.799 with a conforming 25% down payment. I think IT originally posted that Wells was over 5% and very well may be for other types of mortgages.

     

    http://bit.ly/14VHH1Q

     

    I agree that rates are still very low however, BB still may not be happy with the impact on the market in the last thirty days. The change will still keep a lot of people from qualifying.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I just checked around and rates have really jumped since the 6/20/13 Freddie Mac survey. No wonder my regional bank stocks have been rising even on really bad days for the market. Depositor rates are still stuck at near zero.

     

    I checked JP Morgan and their rates for refinancing in my area are at 4.625% for a 30 year and 3.625% for the 15 year.

     

    http://bit.ly/147Sxk4

     

    There are a large number of companies offering lower rates in my area according to Zillow with the average being 4.45% on a thirty year. The fees will vary among the lenders so comparisons are tricky. The rates can vary also depending on FICO credit scores and the amount of down payment. I just played some with the ZILLOW Page to see how rates would vary depending on the inputs.

     

    Mortgage Rates - Today's Home Loan Rates and Trends | Zillow

     

    http://bit.ly/11Yu7oU
    25 Jun 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @EXTREME

     

    So what options does BB have besides turning up the buying??

     

    ANY....
    25 Jun 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1684) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Not much unless he thinks the economy is strong enough to support these rates.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Absent deficit spending, we'd still be in a recession, IMHO. And there are those who suggest that the Fed has no options but to continue on current path. What people aren't talking about is the "new" normal that encompasses lower productivity, and lower birth rates leading to lower GDP.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1684) | Send Message
     
    WMARKW:

     

    You are spot on!. FED stimulus has not been able to stimulate demand primarily due to demograhics. An aging population and low birth rates.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/11YENUD

     

    http://bit.ly/KmRRf3

     

    A decent immigration reform bill is needed and somehow we must get a handle on medicare and medicaid expenses. Medicare expenses totaled 557 billiion in 2011 and medicaid totaled 428 billion in 2011. That is over 1/3 of all federal revenue.

     

    http://go.cms.gov/1a4hsZi

     

    http://bit.ly/11YEOrI
    25 Jun 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    FYI:

     

    Summary of Jeremy Grantham’s 4Q2012 Newsletter (Direct Quote)
     The U.S. GDP growth rate that we have become accustomed to for over a hundred years – in excess of 3% a year – is not just hiding behind temporary setbacks. It is gone forever. Yet most business people (and the Fed) assume that economic growth will recover to its old rates.
     Going forward, GDP growth (conventionally measured) for the U.S. is likely to be about only 1.4% a year, and adjusted growth about 0.9%.
     Population growth that peaked in the U.S. at over 1.5% a year in the 1970s will bob along at less than half a percent. This is pretty much baked into the demographic pie. After adjusting for fewer hours worked per person, man-hours worked annually are likely to be growing at only 0.2% a year.
     Productivity in manufacturing has been high and is expected to stay high, but manufacturing is now only 9% of the U.S. economy, down from 24% in 1900 and 15% in 1990. It is on its way to only 5% by 2040 or so. There is a limit as to how much this small segment can add to total productivity.
     Growth in service productivity in contrast is low and declining. Total productivity is calculated to be just 1.3% through 2030, if we use current accounting methods.
     However, current accounting cannot accurately handle rising resource costs. Spending $150-$200 a barrel in offshore Brazil in the future to deliver the same barrel of oil that cost the Saudis $10 will result perversely in a huge increase in (Brazilian) GDP. In reality, rising resource costs should be counted as a squeeze on the balance of the economy, as they lower our total utility.
     Measuring the non-resource balance of the economy produces the correct effect. The share of resource costs rose by an astonishing 4% of total GDP between 2002 and today. It thus reduced the growth of the non-resource part of GDP by fully 0.4% a year.
     Resource costs have been rising, conservatively, at 7% a year since 2000. If this is maintained in a world growing at under 4% and a developed world at under 1.5% it is easy to see how the squeeze will intensify.
     The price rise might even accelerate as cheap resources diminish. If resources increase their costs at 9% a year, the U.S. will reach a point where all of the growth generated by the economy is used up in simply obtaining enough resources to run the system. It would take just 11 years before the economic system would be in reverse! If, on the other hand, our resource productivity increases, or demand slows, cost increases may decelerate to 5% a year, giving us 31 years to get our act together. Of course, with extraordinary, innovative breakthroughs we might do even better, but we certainly shouldn’t count on that. (Bear in mind that we don’t even know precisely why the prices started to rise so sharply in 2000.) Excessive optimism and doing little could be extremely dangerous.
     For a few years fracking will add helpfully to growth: my guess is that the benefit will peak at about 0.5% within five years, but be modest over longer periods. The key concept here for understanding growth is to know when the maximum upward push will occur. (See Appendix A.)
     Increasing climate damage, reflected mainly in food prices and flood damage, is going to increase. With any luck this will not be severe before 2030 (we allow for a 0.1% setback) but it is very likely to accelerate between 2030 and 2050. A great deal will depend on our responses.

    The bottom line for U.S. real growth, according to our forecast, is 0.9% a year through 2030, decreasing to 0.4% from 2030 to 2050 (see table on Page 16). This is all done presuming no unexpected disasters, but also no heroics, just normal “muddling through.”

     

    http://bit.ly/VJHQn7
    25 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Wmarkw,

     

    so What might an investment strategy be for the scenario you laid out...

     

    25 Jun 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Investing in biotechnology, healthcare and pharma stocks, should take advantage of lower growth and higher age population. Well that's my opinion :)
    25 Jun 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COMMON GUY

     

    Any particular symbols you like? I ask people to bracket them so some can just roll over it to see the name. Right CURLS??
    25 Jun 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Common,
    good choices, but they seem to be working fine in the present day, just take a look at the results in the biotech sector recently.. Pharma 's been pretty good also..

     

    But his scenario would appear to be much more drastic than where we are . Raising the question...
    25 Jun 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Long Term - I'd say that DGI is pretty good as we'll still have population growth outside US, and multi-nationals will see growth outside US at faster pace than in US (in many places - and they are smart enough to go to them).

     

    Lots depends on the "government's" response the a new normal. As inept as they are, I expect them to totally blow it initially. That means, I am more inclined to hang on to a larger proportion of cash anticipating perhaps a more severe correction once reality sets in.

     

    Short Term - I am still for DGI, but not as 'full force' as might otherwise be. I think one should be hedged where possible, but I don't have any great suggestions, as my investments are dominated in IRA and 401k vehicles (where there are some limitations as to approach).

     

    I am closer to retirement so that tends to provoke more of a "safety" mentality.

     

    I know that's not a great answer, but best I have under the circumstances.

     

    Others???
    25 Jun 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Wmarkw,,

     

    I would agree and suggest it's an approach that many are following today...

     

    Amount of cash one chooses to have on hand is clearly dependent on their risk tolerance and age factors , etc. all of which you have taken into account for your case..

     

    The scenarios out to 2030 & 2050 , well they have to give one pause as to the credibility of the predictions..
    25 Jun 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I had VRTX, JAZZ, HGSI(Bought m&a),AMGN, JNJ, QCOR, NVO, MAKO, ISRG, CRIS, ECYT. LGND, CORT. I sold them all in the period of February and March.

     

    Would look for entry points later on.
    25 Jun 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Common,

     

    only one I hold now on your list is NVO,,

     

    waiting for entry on JNJ , been waiting a long time :)
    25 Jun 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    F&G, good choice about NVO. Love that company, had to sell all my position because it was getting too big for the size of my portfolio and i did some reshuffling.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COMMON GUY.

     

    Could you do me a small favor and bracket what you like so it is easy for people to just click on it and see who you are talking about..
    (NVO) Thanks!
    25 Jun 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Apologies, here they are:

     

    (VRTX) (JAZZ) (AMGN) (JNJ) (QCOR) (NVO) (MAKO) (ISRG) (CRIS) (ECYT) (LGND) (CORT)
    25 Jun 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    FG

     

    My selections would be oil, uranium, silver (used in green energy and soldering) because of shortage, food companies, water and obesity drug companies
    25 Jun 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1684) | Send Message
     
    WMARKW:

     

    Looks to me that Obama put another nail in the coffin yesterday by telling the world he is going to go after coal burning energy companies. I don't see how this can do anything but increase costs to everyone just as he has done by not opening drilling in the gulf.

     

    He is bought and paid for by alternative energy lobbies. He must keep the cost of energy high so alternative energy projects make economic sense.

     

    Just an opinion!
    26 Jun 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Rin,,
    Nice list ,
    Have heard a lot recently about investing in the "water" space , compelling macro arguments to support that .. Also I have been and continue to believe in the Ag or fertilizer space-- as long term play on world food supply..
    26 Jun 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    FG
    Thank you and agree on agr and fertilizer; I am not into water yet but interested in (AOS), US company but big in Asia..good luck
    26 Jun 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2378) | Send Message
     
    Godel & Heisenberg were right. Recent surprise raids on the Bond Markets under cover of widespread diversion of attention via intense focus on the Fed has added significant levels of uncertainty to what was already predictably anticipated to be a season of seasonal and cyclical turbulence.

     

    "...remember, in order to perform these dialectic mental operations we must first shatter the rigid conceptual pattern, or patterns, firmly established in our mind. "

     

    http://bit.ly/17bkLvs
    25 Jun 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @EA

     

    WELCOME, glad you joined us and I am sure you will have a lot of interesting posts for us .

     

    Hope to see you more often as this is a very good group of posters!
    25 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2378) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for positive feedback, Bill...I do like to drop by on occasion to see what the latest buzz is, hopefully before I get stung too badly.

     

    While I generally try and shy away from the protracted distractions of tiresome Partisan driven rhetoric that all too often clouds rational discourse, at the same time I am hopefully not oblivious to relevant political and socio-economic realities as well as wasp nests.

     

    Thanks for volunteering to referee some of the regular players here back within the boundaries of the field of useful dialogue.

     

    I'm pretty much a defensive player, not so much interested in the futile approach of trying and take advantage of the element of surprise vs the Feral Pigs as anticipating and avoiding the prospect of unanticipated surprises and the resultant loss of my lunch money, lol.

     

    I try and avoid making any decisions based on either fear or greed; right now with all the uncertainty and conflicting signals, I'm making like a turtle as the bulls have big horns and the bears have sharp claws.

     

    I can hear them scratching on my door right now, hopefully there is enough in the trash cans to keep them away til harvest season in the fall.

     

    I think I'll keep the drawbridge up and the gates locked at least 'til Labor day, and hope my skin is thick enough to withstand this latest assault on rationality by the Mongol Hordes and their Austerian allies.

     

    That should be a good time to go out shopping for a nice new white shirt, which is always in fashion that time of year, especially with the glow of a nice summer tan.

     

    This does not appear to me to be a good time for a turtle to try and cross the road what with all the summer traffic on the highways, especially in light of the June Moon in full display.

     

    I've been reading about a guy named John Boyd and his theory related to the Uncertainty Principle and thinking how it relates to TMI (To Much Information) and what we laughingly refer to as cognitive dissonance when we are ahead of the game albeit in perhaps more colorful language when we are not.

     

    Go ahead and OODA-VOODOO Economics all you want, I think this is a perfectly good time to sit back, sip on some fresh lemonade and watch and see if the guys in big britches who play the big money with 3/1 leverage holding simultaneous positions on both the long and short side self destruct over the next weeks and months in their quest to play both sides against the middle.

     

    Just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean its not true.

     

    Me I hope to have enough sand remaining in either side of the hourglass that it doesn't all disappear down the hopper before the hourglass is once again turned back over t the next reset, and I'm trying to paddle as slow as I possibly can while balancing a bubba burger in the other hand while floating belly up on a cheap air mattress, no undue splashing please.

     

    On second thought, the safest course perhaps is to make sure there are plenty of fully loaded sandbags available on the sidelines just in case this jerryrigged above ground pool springs a leak and we get a sudden unexpected loss of liquidity..

     

    Man the hydrants. Full slow ahead!

     

    http://cs.pn/147VelU
    25 Jun 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1797) | Send Message
     
    Very succinct EA. I always appreciate a good metaphor or two.
    25 Jun 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    I use FFO "funds from operation",, Southgent recently advised me of the advantages of using CAD . "cash avail for dist." .. His raises excellent points with that analysis..

     

    They are new ,I've owned them since early '11 right after their IPO... As you noted the dist. shows a variance . That is due to scheduled plant shutdown for maintenance which is every two years. It is a known, it was well publicized and seemingly misunderstood.
    Hence the variation with distributions..

     

    Note they also had a secondary offering this past May which as in most cases with secondaries added to the weakness.

     

    It has been a short history with this company , but i view the space they are in and believe the overall outlook for that space will continue to show growth in the long run. I still view it as a ground floor opportunity , now at these levels, and willing to ride the variable in distributions during the "off period" ..
    25 Jun 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Any comments on RNF?
    25 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    F & G: CAD matters for some REITs, particularly those that own older office and apartments. I would suggest always looking at whether the CAD number is comfortably above the dividend number and close to FFO.

     

    For Realty Income (O), the normalized FFO and AFFO numbers are close as shown in its last quarterly report:

     

    From Press Release:
    http://1.usa.gov/14Vsi1j

     

    Normalized FFO in excess of dividends paid to
    common stockholders: $19.940M
    AFFO in excess of dividends paid to common stockholders $18.878M
    Normalized FFO per share increased 32.6% to $0.61
    AFFO per share increased 20.0% to $0.60

     

    The CAD numbers just need to be part of an investor's checklist when evaluating a REIT in addition to FFO. Sometimes, it gives the investor a warning of a likely dividend cut when CAD per share is narrowing and running closer to the dividend per share amount; or worse, the CAD per share is already running lower than the dividend per share, even though FFO is still showing an excess. This was the case before Commonwealth REIT and Washington REIT cut their dividends last year. A SA writer who never mentions CAD was recommending WRE just before the dividend cut as the earnings releases were showing a significant contraction in CAD per share below the dividend amount.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    not familiar with (RNF) will take a look and get back to you..
    25 Jun 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    took a quick look at (RNF) , they are scheduled for their turnaround maintenance later this year, so their distribution has been lowered accordingly.. (from 3.30 to 2.60 this year) Another situation like (UAN) where it can be misunderstood , hence offering an opportunity..
    I saw some estimates that they could earn and payout about $3.90 - $4.00 in '14..
    A little more DD here but with the price beaten down to 28 , and expectations of more normalized earnings without the plant shutdown, it seems reasonable to expect share appreciation and collect the dist. while u wait..
    25 Jun 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "More on Richmond Fed: The big gain was led by a jump in New Orders to 9 from -10 previously. Number of Employees 4 vs. 3. Average workweek 12 vs. -6. Expected hiring plans jumps to 13 from 4. The wave of solid economic news - Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence - has taken the starch out of early bond market gains, TLT -0.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up a couple of bps to 2.55%. Stocks back off a big early advance, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.5%)."

     

    Is there such a thing as too much good news??

     

    BTW. Schiller was interviewed on FBN'S and he said that he sees sales slowing down within a year, also that prices might drop as well, that flippers might want to consider buying now with a short term investment horizon. Just reporting what I heard.
    25 Jun 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    On the Richmond Fed , a jump from one month to another is statistical noise. The favorable news to risk taking were the consumer confidence numbers and case-shiller.

     

    Oops, forgot durable goods. It was a good report too.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CG

     

    Schiller was interviewed on FBN and he even had concerns with the numbers. I think it is posted above..

     

    Basically felt it was unsustainable, that we are still down around 30% since 2008, and felt about a year from now they might reverse these figures.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    GDP was revised down to 1.8% today by BEA. This is more inline with TRI's gauge of 1.9%. Jeffrey Lacker of Richmond FRB revealed on BloombergTV his estimate for next year's GDP is 2.25% ... much lower than the FOMC's 3.3% estimate. My target has been 2.2%.

     

    I continue to stress the media hype over the past month on tapering and higher discount rates has been utterly w/o merit. Economic activity will be soft for two more years ... and then it gets worse!
    26 Jun 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Just for the record.

     

    I had a tough day with (WAG)...in fact I have been killed by (http://bit.ly/M8GdV1) today! lol

     

    A lot of buying and selling in order to reduce my lost. I am finally dumping with a net lost of 5k. I should have followed my initial plan...grrrrr...second time in June I do not following my initial plan and I had to take a lost as a result. Not really proud of myself on this trade but that's life.

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @Krusty

     

    Sorry to hear it. That's an ouch. ....these things happen. I'm seeing pharmacy earnings are down as a trend ($stores taking their groceries), so they may price down & give an opportunity later to make it back up?

     

    What part of the plan didn't you follow (in case I can learn without the investment.)?

     

    At any rate, you're in better shape than what just caused the big thump on my window as I was typing. I bet that bird will have stories to tell.
    25 Jun 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    I've been there before , know what u mean.

     

    Since i have been burned before, I 've added another item on my checklist , "earnings date " . I never say never but i rarely step in front of earnings with a new position, because of the unknowns.. Even good reports can take a stock down,depending on the situation,,

     

    Wish I could have spotted,that when u mentioned (WAG) earlier..

     

    I also learned (many times) the hard way .. Hang in there..
    25 Jun 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Fear.

     

    I am like the stock market...I always bounce back! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    Not too often I read where people post they LOST money. You Manned up.

     

    I am sure just another scar added. But it does show others we are trying to help one another make money, and all are on the same side against the HOUSE..
    25 Jun 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS.

     

    Nah, that thump was my GUY trying to get your keyboard. Idiot thought your window was open and tried to just dive in.. Moron.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    ''and all are on the same side against the HOUSE..''

     

    Well said! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    ''I bet that bird will have stories to tell.''

     

    LOL! :-) Thanks for the chuckle!

     

    I initially bought for a $1 profit. I was sure the stock would be in a breakout in a matter of days.

     

    Then Bernanke spooked the markets and (WAG) went downhill with the markets. I should have sold my position at that time. But instead I converted it in a long term trade!? My rational was ''OK I will buy more if the Dow goes to 14,000'' but the point I missed was that I never thought (WAG) would have a 7% daily drop while the Dow was rallying. It is a rookie's mistake...even after 15 years on the market...unbelievable.

     

    I guess the past two years were really too easy, so I needed a slap in the face to wake me up and say: ''you are not the boss...the market is and will always be the boss''.

     

    Oh, and by the way...I have dumped (RAD) as well. I will stick with the new bulls instead.

     

    End of the story ;-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    Krusty :-)

     

    Oh well, with muscle memory, it will all come back. Better than me - I'm stilling looking for rookie opportunities to err & build my muscle memory :).

     

    Everyone talks fundamentals & technicals, but with fresh newbie eyes, I've concluded the Fed is an overriding factor to all regular market tendencies. It'd a great chance to trade on the reaction to them... but messes up every other reasonable plan that crosses it's path.

     

    ...and it's not just on official days. I keep missing minor stories by Hills & loosely associated Fed officials, that make the markets reverse course on a whim...

     

    Oh well. It's time for ice cream.

     

    @ Fear

     

    "i rarely step in front of earnings with a new position,"
    I was wondering what plan makes sense with those. Sometimes a great up chance, but so much uncertainity. ...a good checklist item idea. Thanks.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Curls,,
    Yes u can often get a great bounce with an earnings report after setting up a new position, but with uncertainty and the fact that sometimes even a good report brings selling in the stock the next day.. I decided its not worth the risk..
    25 Jun 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    Nowadays, not sure how many positive-generating earnings reports we're going to have... even more risky than usual...

     

    On the flip side, when something tanks after an earnings report, maybe that's an opportunity (depending on why/how). My IBM went from $212 to $190 by missing $.01 cent of revenue (or something like that). Oh boy do I wish I'd bought at $190, & sold when it came back up to $110 / 212 for a few days before May 22. I should have/could have guessed the management had plans to offset the disappointing results... with a big buy back a week later & some announcements.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    $112 TO $190 on a missed .01? Do you have your numbers backwards?
    25 Jun 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    Lol, it was 212, not 112.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    See I told you some of us read what you post!!

     

    Not everyone ignores you. Maybe you tried to trick us huh?
    25 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    Yes ,

     

    i watch as you say the "flip" side when earnings miss by a penny , or the guidance then is announced on the low end of the range.. or some other such nonsense.. Investors forget these are "analysts estimates to begin with. What makes that gospel ?? IF the overall story on your stock is still intact and they sell it off, U can get real bargains if u do your homework and use the "fear " of others after the announcement as your gain ... One of my favorite plays..

     

    Some of my best plays earlier this year (COH) and (BBBY) after they got trounced after earnings ...
    25 Jun 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    Muscle memory...:-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Oy, that guy is dense if he thinks he's getting my windows open, when I need to hire a contractor to make that happen!

     

    @ Fear

     

    I can just imagine (COH) and (BBBY) were a good deal. Congratulations on spotting them!

     

    @ Krusty

     

    Hope the sympathy helped :). And some ice cream.

     

    Lennar (LEN) that had very positive earnings, did poorly today. CNBC talked about it, but too fast for me to catch. The whole sector is down apparently (home construction). ...so this may be a good opportunity still. I'm waiting though. I'll wait till one of you experienced chart readers gets all excited.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,not trying to rub salt in the wound.But if you didn't sell when it dropped would you have a real loss? I know with Gold going down i have decided not to sell on many occasions because of 5% drops right before a weekend show. How is it different? Just trying to learn other POV s and strategies.I see you took a profit on a competitor(RAD) though,that's the way I offset drops on bullion items.The best reason for dealing with Numismatics,sell the hot item for a profit and sit on the other items till they cycle back up.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    CoinsK:

     

    No salt in the wound, don't worry. :-)

     

    I alreay made one mistake and I simply refused to make a second one. I did not like the market reaction on (WAG) today. In addition, my position on (WAG) was a large one and I had to cut the loses. To each his own money management techniques I guess. But the main point here is to remember one thing: follow your plan. I did not. (WAG) was supposed to be a short term trade. I decided to convert it into a longer one because I was stuck on the wrong side of the fence. That was my mistake.

     

    Going back on gold. Seems to be some interesting action brewing on the August contract. You may want to follow what the large spec is doing.

     

    Cheers! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    25 Jun 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    Krustyman: I owned WAG many moons ago, buying some shares in 2010 at $30.15, when the shares appeared to be on sale, unlike the merchandise sold by the company compared to other retailers.

     

    Bought WAG at 30.15 (June 2010)
    http://bit.ly/18eW4RP

     

    I will compare product prices on a number of commonly purchased items, both as a consumer and a potential purchaser of the stock. I have found that the drugstores are substantially higher in price than my local Kroger on items routinely bought by me, let alone Wal-Mart. I just avoid going into one of them to buy anything.

     

    One advantage to buying smaller lots, which is what I generally do, is that short term movements in market price never provokes a sell response unless something fundamentally has changed about the company. I only briefly glanced at the WAG report and do not see that kind of event. If I owned a lot of shares of a stock with a disappointing earnings report, representing a significant part of the portfolio, then I may have to react differently which may not be the best thing to do long term. Consequently, I do not have a single position that is anywhere close to 1% of my portfolio.

     

    Speaking for myself, I have not been able to time very well short term market movements, up or down, anyway so I do not try based on technicals or anything else.

     

    If I am worried about more downdrafts in price, which is the case for bond CEFs now, I just slice and dice the order into really small pieces and spread them out over time.

     

    I may take advantage of a really fast move up by selling a non core position for a profit but otherwise I am mostly doing nothing day to day other than piddling and researching possible purchases, which seems to work fine over the long term and writing comments here at SA and my weekly blog. The turtle approach seems to work well over a long period of time, focusing on mostly income generating securities and then using the cash flow produced by those securities to buy more of the same.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    OK ,I get your situation now that you said that. Too much of a good thing on a not so good day. I am interested in looking for upside in metals after the sell-off from weak hands and the macro view may be better for markets in general after July. You probably are aware that metals normally take a beating during summer months. The exception has been the case for a few years prior to August of 2011. That was the all-time high for Gold & Silver. It was brief and that's when my grown son clued me in to ZSL for covering the downside.Too bad I didn't have the available cash this spring to use that trade again.I'm going to look at August ,and September to consider an upside possibility for metals AGAIN.Got to love cycles.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    I sent you a PM for an opinion on something. Did you get it??
    26 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Yes i just got on the computer about an hour ago. I would need to look at the Ebay completed auctions to give an opinion on that set Bill. The reason is I haven't had the Silver one in a 3rd party graded holder. I have as I told you ,had the Gold version in a PCGS slab. The only ASE sets I have had were in OGP (Original govt. pkg.). I'll let you know what I come up with,but you can research the completed Ebay auction on those pretty easily.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    My concern is it an item that over the years should increase in value, or better to sell now. Being new to numismatics (only 5 years ) just trying to learn what is good to keep vs what is better to flip.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Bill ,the problem with all the products coming out from the U.S.Mint is that they are NOT Numismatics.They are not just Bullion either. They are high priced coins that have a heavy premium."Created collectibles " if you will. I sometimes cringe when they come in,because depending on how the people bought them ,they are overpriced and then some. The market is soft right now because so many people have turned their money into Bullion and it has hurt the Coin market. Then there are those that just "Chase " these government issue high power coins. I don't subscribe to either approach. I like all of it ,but only at the right price.As a dealer I deal with people popping in the door expecting things from us that do not fit the business model I have. That model is "Buy low Sell high" as much as we can. It's a strange business right now for sure. The one thing I did was put real Numismatic coins back when I bought them 7 or 8 years ago when Gold was still below $500.

     

    At any rate I would never count on the "New" issues from the mint being worth more in 10 years,there's no way to tell.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I have heard from a few coin dealers to stay away from numismatics and the market for them is very soft, worse than for bullion. It may be surprising that a dealer would say that, but true nonetheless.
    But, I dont know anything about them, just relaying what I was told.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Guys

     

    Thanks, my set was bought in 2006 and Ebay sales are much higher then what I bought it for. I was just questioning the rarity of it and if it was worth holding on to. Apparently it isn't so I may list it and take my 40% profit!
    26 Jun 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Its always fun to take some profit and you dont have one until you do.
    Paper profits are meaningless (as homeowners finally discovered).
    26 Jun 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Tampat .The main thing is to get value when you buy anything.Especially true with Numismatics. Most people get taken advantage of when they buy them.I love to own them ,like the $20 Gold coins from the 1850 era ,but I don't want to overpay. A Numismatic has been defined by some as a coin that has collector value in excess of 15% of the Gold or Silver it contains. I bought most of mine based on that when Gold was about $500 to $700 an Oz. over a couple years. I am glad to hang on to those .Even if Gold goes below $800 I'm still happy with the investment.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My luck and the sucker becomes a collectors item though.. But after fees it should net me closer to 45%.

     

    Got a few of these types of numismatics bought a few years ago that might just be ripe to list!
    26 Jun 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Coins,

     

    I really dont know anything about the numismatic market. I suppose if one knows what they are doing it can work for them. There are people who make money with art and other collectibles and do well, but I would be clueless about that too.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    I always have a fear about numismatics after I saw that comic book faze wear off. You had a dealer of comic books in every town. Now you can't give them away fast enough.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "We're in a highly levered economy where households can't afford to pay much more interest," writes Bill Gross, noting monthly payments on a 30-year mortgage have jumped 20-25% since January and mortgage applications have plummeted 39% in 2 months. He's not buying Bernanke's tough talk given the reality of our economy and the chairman's "helicopter" reputation. "Investors selling Treasurys (TLT, TBT) in anticipation the Fed will ease out of the market might be disappointed."

     

    Ok, go tear this apart experts!!
    25 Jun 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Another view ,

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Like most of these data points one can take his/her pick :)
    25 Jun 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2540) | Send Message
     
    IT: It is impossible for me take Gross seriously when he does not even bother to mention the millions that have already refinanced at lower rates and instead focuses on what amounts to less than seven million households who have not already refinanced due primarily to negative equity. Of course, he does not reference the 1/3 of homes owned free and clear in the U.S.

     

    I thought his argument was just absurd given what we already known about households in the aggregate and the total number of refinancings to date.

     

    The debt service payments to disposable income ratio is already at the lowest level since the FED started to maintain that data series in 1980, establishing that consumers in the aggregate have dramatically lowered their debt service costs and consequently raised the amount of disposable income that can be spent elsewhere to support the economy, pay down expensive credit card debt and/or to save.
    25 Jun 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2446) | Send Message
     
    IT>

     

    You have requested input from posters on many occasions regarding (PSEC). You may recall that I put you onto this business development company several months ago. I still hold it and enjoy the 12+% income it produces.

     

    There have been dozens of articles on the stock some of which I provide links for. I also provide a link to their press release where they state what they will be paying out over the next twelve months:

     

    http://bit.ly/148fWSu

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    An interesting article on a number of BDCs:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I've given you some reading to do and evaluate. As I said when you asked me for a recommendation and I provided PSEC, it appears to me to be a solid income producer and I myself have held it a long time.

     

    I hope you have been holding it and benefit from what I have provided here.

     

    Windwood Trader
    25 Jun 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    Thanks for all this info. Yes, actually I owned some for close to a year now. Was looking for a reason to add more as a good friend sold his and thought it was a good move getting out.

     

    It was someone I trust and someone you actually know from the quickchat. I don't want to name the person but you know how strong those folks are knowledge wise as well.

     

    However I have a poster who just asked me in a PM why I liked it so I am going to just let him read all the work you just did !

     

    Thanks..
    25 Jun 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now moving onto CHAPTER 17 !!!

     

    Ok sports nuts, what famous player wore this number??

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Jun 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12767) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    John Havlichek

     

    (It helps to be 63.)
    25 Jun 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    FEAR beat you to it. HE POSTED IT on Chapter 15. I put a hint on the wrong Chapter...But I agree with both of you.

     

    As I posted I bet half those here said who??
    25 Jun 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HINT.. Player is from BOSTON imo.. No cheating !!
    25 Jun 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2446) | Send Message
     
    Mel Parnell was one of the longer active RedSox players. He was there when I was a kid. Best pitcher I ever saw.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    Didn't think of him...Still like him over Havlicek ?
    25 Jun 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2446) | Send Message
     
    Dusty Parnell came to mind first-
    26 Jun 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5152) | Send Message
     
    "Dandy" Don Meredith is my answer. Not sure if he is from Boston or not. Dizzy Dean wore #17 also.

     

    Summer basketball camp underway. League play starts this week. I will try to keep up with IT blog.

     

    Where is Jon Corzine and why are criminal charges not being sought?

     

    Have a great evening.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    A basketball coach and you don't name a basketball player who won 8 titles?

     

    Need another hint? We have a winner already...John Havlicek...

     

    I bet you wished you had 5 starters like him!!!

     

    Dizzy is a great pick also ...
    25 Jun 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2446) | Send Message
     
    Meredith was a QB for Dallas before Monday Night Football with Cosell.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    Two things I do remember back then on Monday night. Meredith singing "Good night the parties over" I believe were the words.

     

    Then Cosell saying "look at that monkey run". He was referring to a black running back whose name escapes me..

     

    Needed some damage control after that statement. I think he had a few cocktail prior to the game. The RB might have been a Giant player??
    25 Jun 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4556) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    believe that running back was Joe Washington , Old Balt colts..

     

    again showing my age - LOL

     

    meredith was the best
    25 Jun 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How bout Dave Meggett from the Giants??
    25 Jun 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just googled it and apparently their is a missing one. The one I remember where he said he's at the 40, the 30, the 20, look at that monkey run !!

     

    But people remember the play but not the game. Apparently he said it more then once ,,I am positive this wasn't the game or play !!

     

    http://bit.ly/14WveLc
    25 Jun 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Chris Berman's play call of "Look at that little Meggett run!" is a reference to a famous NFL Monday Night Football incident. Howard Cosell's original call of "Look at that little monkey run!" in describing Washington Redskin Alvin Garrett sparked a controversy and accusations of racism because Garrett was black. Berman even tries to imitate Cosell's voice on the call. Berman also used this line and voice on ESPN when describing the play of former New York Giants running back Dave Meggett."

     

    Maybe this is what I remember....Still think we have a missing sound bite though.. Ok, now whomever finds it is real good !!

     

    Next we solve Kennedy's death. We aim to please all here ..
    25 Jun 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    Kennedy's dead. ...how come no one told me? "I never know nothing."
    26 Jun 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    So I can find it again...
    here's chapter 17...
    http://bit.ly/1ckN8aW
    26 Jun 2013, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Do I detect a little sarcasm here? Can't the boys play a little>>>
    Come on, I wanna play..
    26 Jun 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Nope, just joking around -- I wanna play too :).
    26 Jun 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I know, busting em...Ok do you like a sport and which one??
    26 Jun 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I don't watch any sport much. I'm just not fun that way to play with <sob, sob>. For playing, I'm partial to skiing... and a little summertime swimming, jogging...
    26 Jun 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, I can come up with a trivia question for you then soon! After the next blog!
    26 Jun 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3545) | Send Message
     
    And here's chapter 17, hanging on till the end! http://bit.ly/1ckN8aW
    26 Jun 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gotta have the last word huh?? Typical ..never mind >>>
    26 Jun 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
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