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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
My blog:
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 17.........  132 comments
    Jun 25, 2013 7:38 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (GLD) and (SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: let the comments flow..

Back To Interesting Times' Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (132)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Whenever someone wants to open up?

     

    Alright I will. We have a few newbies posting and I want to WELCOME all here.

     

    Question, did we miss what BB really meant last week? I never heard him say he was ending the QE'S unless the economy was stable. He even asked (begged) Congress to act. What can Congress really do anyway?
    25 Jun 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    IT,,

     

    Some surely missed it , maybe more than "some",, given the reaction of the markets..

     

    Don't get me started on congress :) LOL
    25 Jun 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A few points.

     

    1) I changed the blog info some above so you folks might want to take a look.

     

    2) I also just saw the drawbridge go up and thought a Carnival cruise liner was coming in but then realized it was TACKS yacht because I witnessed about a dozen Cabana Girls walking about. So I am sure he'll rejoin us soon.

     

    3) I also have been aggressive trying to promote this blog and could use some help in the expansion. So any ideas you folks have I would appreciate it. This is not an article so it will have to be word of mouth.

     

    4) As always lets be polite to everyone posting

     

    We do live in INTERESTING TIMES!!
    25 Jun 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    IT, Do i paste the stocks here too?
    25 Jun 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CG

     

    You don't need to go back and do it, but in the future anything you like I appreciate just throwing the brackets around it so that people can scan over it for the name or click on it for some detail information..

     

    Thanks.

     

    Now I have a strategy question to ask. If I want to expand my position on (PSEC) when is the best time to do it . After the ex dividend date, after the day the dividend gets distributed , or another day?

     

    Let's just assume that we have no surprises in the markets, no corrections happening, just a normal market ( is there one?)
    25 Jun 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    If you like the stock at current value just buy it.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Query for those who've been around longer than I:

     

    I'm seeing muni-cefs get hammered pretty good. I'm seeing many that were trading at premiums now trading at discounts to nav. I'm seeing a few that are earning (as of the most recent statements) more than the payout. Any problems with buying into some of them? Aside from the interest-rate/leverage risks?

     

    I think that there might very well be an over-selling of these boogers as they don't tend to be held by institutions as much as retail folks (who I will assume are well-off and much older than I and are trying to preserve income rather than analyze opportunities for future income).

     

    I'm thinking of scaling into some of these as long as the general hatred of anything high-yield lasts along with preferreds.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    Welcome !!

     

    I am sure someone way more informed than me will field this question for you .
    25 Jun 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    User,
    SouthGent1951 is into the CEFs. He'll probably post something for you. I know he has had several other comment about that sector recently since rates started going up.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    User: There are a large number of issues that are contributing to the declines.

     

    1. These funds own longer term bonds that will decline in value as interest rates rise. Intermediate and long term interest rates have been rising quickly since 5/1/13.

     

    2. These funds have used borrowed money to buy an asset that is declining in price which accelerates their losses. Borrowing money to buy anything going down in price is not something that works out well.

     

    3. When the net asset values start to plunge, which has in fact happened, the individual investors who primarily own these funds become net sellers, almost regardless of any consideration other than stopping the pain. This results in the discount to net asset value expanding which adds to the existing shareholders loss of value.

     

    4. Rates are rising now even as the market decreases its forecasts for inflation. The reason rates are rising is due to what is known generally as "interest rate normalization". Simply, intermediate and long term rates have been kept at artificially low levels by QE. In a free market, where investors set rates free from central bank intervention in the market, based on their collective assessment of inflation, credit quality and other issues, the normal process for centuries, rates would be higher than they have been since the FED first launched QE in March 2009. The return to those market based rates is referred to as interest rate normalization.

     

    A normal rate for a ten year treasury, based on the current inflation forecast embodied in the pricing of the ten year TIP would be close to 4% in my opinion, though it may take a couple of years to get from here to there.

     

    The 10 year rate was 1.66% on 5/1 and is now at 2.6% and rising. That percentage rise, while it does not seem like much is sufficient to wipe out several years of interest payments at 1.66% and cause an unrealized loss of nearly 15% for the buyer of that 10 year bond on 5/1.

     

    Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9

     

    So far, the rise in rates has shown no interest in stopping or even pausing to catch a breath. Investors now believe that the FED will likely end QE in the first half of 2014 and the bond market will then return to setting rates at normal levels free of FED intervention. Those levels will be higher than they are now even after the recent rise.

     

    What I would recommend doing is to go to CEFConnect and type in a symbol like NPI:

     

    http://bit.ly/o4ngfR

     

    Then hit the "pricing history" tab.

     

    I would then calculate the percentage decline in both net asset value and the market price since May 1. That would give you an idea of (1) how the rise in rates has impacted the net asset value per share and (2) how investors have responded to that decline. You can adjust the prices for the monthly dividends that went ex dividend between then and now if you want to be precise.

     

    One investor response is evident in the chart showing the discount history. It has expanded during the selloff, creating another problem for existing shareholders.

     

    At the moment, buying these securities are like catching falling knives. My approach will be to chop my orders into very small pieces and to place orders on down days below the then existing bid (usually 10 to 20 cents below). If I receive a fill, I would not be surprised to be back in a week or two with another small order at a lower price.

     

    At the moment, I own only 100 shares of NPI, recently bought, and have several more on a monitor list for potential purchases. I may buy 50 or 100 of another one later this week. It is hard to see a let up in the decline until the treasuries stop going down in price.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    User:

     

    The biggest problem with these leveraged muni CEF's is they are not very liquid both from a fund perspective and the individual bond perspective. Most institutions can't invest in the bonds owned by these funds so they are primarily retail driven. Banks and other institutions can only buy the smaller issues. These are called bank qualified issues or BQ bonds. Since small retail customers are the primary source of liquidity bids can vary substantially.

     

    I have recently purchased NPI and will consider more if the price continues to fall. I consider this a contrarian trade since it is currently almost 15% below it's 200 day average. The yields are such that I can afford to hold for a long time waiting for a rebound in price. I also have been doing some tax management by selling some other funds at a loss to offset some of my 2013 gains.

     

    For example, I also own NUV which is a non leveraged muni fund. This fund has also tumbled with the recent market giving me an unrealized loss. I sold some of this position to offset gains and reinvested in NPI which has more volatility which I HOPE will be beneficial if yields rebound. If the market continues to decline I will swap some ETF's to offset gains. Such as swapping SPY for VOO.

     

    I don't know where the bottom will be in these funds however, NPI is paying over 6.5% tax free which is a yield I can live with for a while. I am also looking at preferred shares however, they have not declined enough at this point to get my attention.

     

    I am a bit unusual in that I pay a lot of attention to taxes and I try to eliminate as much tax liability as possible by selling losing positions each year and earning tax free income.

     

    I don't see anything rational about the current price of NPI when compared to treasuries and other munis!
    26 Jun 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    user:

     

    In my estimation, better to consider various convertible-bond and float-rate CEF's than the muni's because these funds, too, were obliterated along with munis and agency REITs, although their fundamentals look entirely different in a rising-rate market.

     

    Some to consider:

     

    NCV
    AGC
    CHI
    JRO
    PFL
    VVR
    PHD
    26 Jun 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack,

     

    Thanks for reminding about the convertable funds - haven't looked at those in quite a while and used to own some of agc and chi.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    I was hoping you would show up. I'm less comfortable in evaluating bond funds and how they react to interest rates than I am stock funds. Thanks for the pointers in assessing them during a swoon.

     

    Point taken about the falling knives. I'm thinking maybe looking at the ones with relatively lower leverage to develop a short list for buying into here and there, but I don't think I'm going to be in much of a hurry.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    User: The Nuveen and Blackrock municipal bond funds, which I am currently monitoring, have an effective leverage over 30%. That leverage will provide more yield than a comparable non-leveraged fund, which is their main attraction to individual investors. The leverage can also create more upside and downside to the net asset value per share.

     

    The intermediate and long term treasuries are calling the bond market's tune. You could pretty much know now how the entire bond complex is doing on a particular day by looking first at the 10 and 30 year treasury bonds.

     

    Both of those bond rose in price and fell in yield.

     

    NPI, the municipal bond CEF that I mentioned, rose $.35 in price today and the net asset value per share increased $.24 from $13.85 to $14.09. That is the reverse of what has been happening with the market price going down more the decline in net asset value per share.

     

    Today, I averaged down in the ROTH IRA by buying just 50 shares of the taxable bond CEF GDO, which will liquidate in 2024, at $17.58. That is how I am buying bond CEFs at the moment.

     

    The trading range for that one today was between $17.52 to $17.99, with the close at $17.7, up 7 cents for the day. GDO will generally use some leverage but the last reported amount was less than 15%. The NAV increased by only 13 cents so the discount had to widen some from the previous close. The discount widened to -10.43 from -10.19.

     

    Historical Discounts from CEFConnect:
    As of 6/26/2013
    Period Avg Discount
    6 Month -3.96%
    1 Year -2.73%
    3 Year -4.54%

     

    Credit quality is weighted in investment grade but there is significant BB (14.47%) and B (12.23%) rated bonds, both as of 3/31/12.

     

    The sponsor claims that the effective duration was 4.29 year as of 3/31/13. Duration is very important now.

     

    As a rule of thumb, an investor can get a ballpark estimate of the potential losses by multiplying the duration by the percentage rise in rates.

     

    Vanguard: Get to know your bond fund: Duration
    http://bit.ly/13NfZTo

     

    The currently anticipated low inflation rates and the anemic GDP growth will restrain the rise in rates, an important consideration for bond investors now, even when the FED starts to taper and later ends its asset purchases.

     

    The average annual inflation forecast over the next 10 years, built into the price of the 10 Year TIP, was 1.95% as of 6/26/13, a very benign forecast for bond investor's once we get over the rate normalization hump.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2321) | Send Message
     
    "...did we miss what BB really meant last week?"

     

    I think his message was very coherent, unfortunately not everyone, or should I say hardly anyone that doesn't make a special effort to follow closely paid enough attention to get it; perhaps just a 30 second spot on the evening news for most folks who even care, meanwhile bombarded with endless droning of shock talk radio and fragmented memes repeated until they are accepted as critical thought.

     

    Point is that unfortunately maybe a good scare is what it takes to get folks with influence on the fiscal side to take necessary action to make good use the time that can be bought on the monetary side to come up with at least a token down payment on some new investments in the sort of reforms that can accelerate participation in the labor force in a manner that produces perceptible and realistic expectations of sustainable growth on Main Street.

     

    Problem is right now severe complacency has set in and if they're not scared enough they will continue pussy footing around and if they're too scared panic sets in and then the risk increases that things really do get screwed up.

     

    Sort of like flying airplanes, or driving in the national forest at night, hours and hours of sheer boredom punctuated by rare moments of sheer terror.

     

    Beware the deer in the headlights, they're headed your way.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    IPO watch: Early investor interest in Noodles (NDLS) has been strong enough to prompt the company to lift the price range of its IPO to $15 to $17 per share from a prior range of $13-$15. SA author Pursuing Growth sees real growth potential for the chain as it falls into the lush track of previous fast-casual stories like Buffalo Wild Wings, Chipotle, and Panera Bread.

     

    Gonna take a nibble???
    25 Jun 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I'm still on my macro kick of not wanting to get into anything much long term. So I'm going to keep an eye & see if I can set a short climb out of it. ...I won't be home the whole day though.

     

    (Chuy) is way overpriced, but that's the one I'd go into long term. The restaurant goers seems overwhelmingly thrilled with it. I've eaten at (NDLS). Kind of not much more to say after that. On a side note, they don't serve french fries. My little niece found that completely offensive :).

     

    Your arguments for (PSEC) (someplace around here) are compelling on why to get in now. I'll be thinking about it.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gold and Silver are getting crushed overseas !!!

     

    Tomorrow the markets are gonna be interesting.....
    25 Jun 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    What -is- going on with Gold now?
    26 Jun 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Rising rates aren't good to a asset that doesn't provide yield.....
    26 Jun 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    My comments from June 20th,,
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    As of the moment that sceanrio is being played out...
    26 Jun 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    curls

     

    isn't options expiration week?
    26 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I PM'D Tom Luongo and he feels it is a liquidity issue worldwide. Any thoughts on that?
    26 Jun 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I believe Tom was in concert with my opinion (6/20) on price of Gold having to recapture the 1320 or so range to avoid further downside..

     

    Since we have not seen that occur , the scenario of lower prices is in play..

     

    Regardless of the reason (liquidity , etc) , wonder if Tom now agrees that we may have a path down to much lower prices perhaps to 1,000 as I suggest..
    26 Jun 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow & Thursdays earnings reports:

     

    26 Jun AMC Q1 2013 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 0.93 26 0.89
    26 Jun BMO Q4 2013 General Mills, Inc. 0.53 17 0.60
    26 Jun BMO Q3 2013 Monsanto Company 1.60 20 1.63
    26 Jun AMC Q4 2013 Paychex 0.38 23 0.34

     

    27 Jun BMO Q4 FY2013 ConAgra Foods 0.59 15 0.51
    27 Jun BMO Q2 2013 McCormick & Company, 0.61 14 0.60
    27 Jun AMC Q4 2013 Nike 0.75 24 0.59
    http://reut.rs/1ckOuCL
    26 Jun 2013, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    U.S. Sells $35 Billion of Two-Year Notes to Below-Average Demand
    http://bloom.bg/17f6TAq

     

    Europe Stocks Rise With Treasuries as Gold Declines
    http://bloom.bg/17C2CL7

     

    U.S. Stock Futures Advance as China’s Cash Crunch Eases
    http://bloom.bg/17C2DP7

     

    copper 304.30 -3.30
    corn 545.50 +1
    10Y US 2.573%
    VIX 18.47
    WTI 95.19
    Brent 101.49
    26 Jun 2013, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    It is ironic that the strengthening dollar is the result of nobody wanting to buy the debt. Maybe the play is buy dollars sell treasuries and leave Ben holding the bag.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning!
    Today we have third revision to 1Q GDP, and MBA purchase index numbers.

     

    Volatile action in gold. Dollar gaining strength against India currency.

     

    ----CNBC survey claims Americans are more confident about US economy---

     

    http://bit.ly/10UtuTm
    http://bit.ly/KwO5iy
    26 Jun 2013, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Common Guy!
    I forgot about todays calendar:
    Today's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:30 GDP Q1
    8:30 Corporate Profits
    10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction

     

    Notable earnings before today's open: MON, GIS, LNN, AH

     

    Notable earnings after today's close: BBBY, PAYX
    26 Jun 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    No problemo :).

     

    GIS earnings :

     

    Fiscal 2013 Results Summary

     

    --Net sales grew 7 percent to $17.8 billion.

     

    --New businesses contributed 6 points of net sales growth.

     

    --Excluding new businesses, net sales grew 1 percent.

     

    --Segment operating profit grew 6 percent to $3.2 billion.

     

    --Diluted earnings per share (EPS) totaled $2.79, up 19 percent from $2.35 a year ago.

     

    --Adjusted diluted EPS, which excludes certain items affecting comparability of results, totaled $2.69 compared to $2.56 a year ago.

     

    I"m looking for entry point.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CG

     

    Any opinion of GDP revision downwards??
    26 Jun 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Well, it is pretty lackluster considering how much deficit spending is occurring.

     

    But the number right now too old to get a conclusion, we are entering 3Q next week. Recent numbers like durable goods, and consumer sentiment are more important.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    To repeat a late Chap16 post: GDP was revised down to 1.8% today by BEA. This is more inline with TRI's gauge of 1.9%. Jeffrey Lacker of Richmond FRB revealed on BloombergTV his estimate for next year's GDP is 2.25% ... much lower than the FOMC's 3.3% estimate. My target has been 2.2%.

     

    So I continue to stress media & cable news hype over the past month on tapering and higher discount rates has been utterly w/o merit. Economic activity will be soft for two more years ... and then it gets worse!
    26 Jun 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Gold demand outstrips supply .... http://bit.ly/1aN1xyF
    26 Jun 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Since I know there has been interest in (RAD) and (WAG) here is an analysis:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Jun 2013, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    I do not own (WAG) , but after this recent sell -off it may warrant some attention for long term accounts.. -- 2.5% yield ,,

     

    Recent report was "mixed" but i noticed their "express scripts' portion of the business showed strong growth in the latest quarter..

     

    Might be worth a longer look if we get it down to the 40 area..
    26 Jun 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    F&G-

     

    (WAG) has been a great trading stock- Up three, down four, up two, down one, up four, etc. all in two weeks time.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    US GDP

     

    http://bloom.bg/18fRItW
    26 Jun 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    They track how many times we get hair cuts?... "The revisions showed household spending in the category of other services, which includes tourism, legal help and personal care items such as hair cuts, dropped in the first quarter from the previous three months."

     

    The phone taps were bad but hair cuts thats the last straw.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    You have hair??
    26 Jun 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Shoulder length and face hair. I like when it blows in the wind on the bike. Reminds me might be a good day to catch some air. I am looking for a good summer read. In the summer I like fiction might be a good time to reread 1984 or some Orwell. Just finishing Kafka's "The Metamorphosis" .
    26 Jun 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I'm getting a receding hairline it sucks...

     

    My wife says it is okay so overall is all good.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CG

     

    You still trust what she says to you huh.? Gotta be a newlywed.. lol
    26 Jun 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    lol!
    26 Jun 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    As to IT's question at the beginning of this chapter, BB make this statement in his prepared remarks:

     

    "when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7 percent, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains"

     

    http://1.usa.gov/15FpiDe

     

    Steve Liesman asked the first question about that statement and BB said that "it represents the consensus of the FOMC, yes"

     

    Please note the use of the word "vicinity", very much unlike the 6.5% specific target for a possible rise in the federal funds rate.

     

    He went on to say that "if conditions improve faster than expected, the pace of asset purchases could be reduced somewhat more quickly" or delayed "if financial conditions are judged to be inconsistent with further progress in the labor markets"

     

    The FED did lower its unemployment forecast to 6.5% to 6.8% in 2014.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/12bfva9

     

    I also thought that it was important that BB emphasized the extraordinary nature of QE and its limited purpose as a jump start mechanism. He also went to great pains to explain how stimulus would continue after stopping asset purchases by simply holding onto the securities and reinvesting proceeds. (page 13)
    26 Jun 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    So then why did we see the selloff right after his speech then? I mean did EVERYONE just not get what he was saying...

     

    I heard no slowing down pretty clearly unless the economy improves however I am not so sure what *improves* definition is though. GDP, Unemployment ??
    26 Jun 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    IT: The FED expects the unemployment rate to decline to 6.5% to 6.8% in 2014, well below the "vicinity" of a 7% rate for the "end" of the asset purchases part of QE.

     

    In other words, it will not take that much of an improvement to end the asset purchases.

     

    Gross noted in his article published yesterday in Barron's that the FED believes unemployment will fall to 7% by mid-2014.

     

    http://bit.ly/10laqeM

     

    In his opinion, that is a "long shot". I would disagree but we shall see.

     

    It is clear that asset buying will taper and end before the FED raises the federal funds rate which is currently expected to happen in 2015.

     

    Whenever there is a chink in the FED's forecast, such as today's downward revision in GDP, bonds will find a bid and will rally. And, when there are positive reports that support the FED's forecast, I would expect bonds to selloff due to an increased chance that asset purchases would end in the 2014 second quarter, which is how I interpret BB's comments. I view all of the foregoing as part of the ongoing rate normalization process as investors try to assess how much longer will the FED be intervening in the market with asset purchases and the amount of those purchases.

     

    Since the current quarter real GDP is likely to be anemic, growth will have to pick up in the second half for the FED to start tapering, so November 2013 is more likely now than September for the start of tapering.

     

    The PCE revision to 2.6% from 3.4% did not involve what I would call core expenditures like retail spending or auto purchases but only in certain service categories. Maybe it is a good thing that less money was spent on "legal service" . The lower expenditures for health care services may be just a timing issue, something that I will look into later. Personal care expenditures?

     

    I like to read Bryan Westbury's take which can be found in his blog at FirstTrust:

     

    http://bit.ly/VSCcgh
    26 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Can you define what PCE is for those who do not know?

     

    Thanks!
    26 Jun 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    PCE=Personal Consumption Expenditures

     

    Both the total amount of those expenditures by consumers and the prices paid are very important to the FED. The price index for PCE has been trending down.

     

    The U.S. is a consumer driven economy with close to 70% of GDP derived from consumer spending.

     

    The PCE Price Index can be found in Table 8. Core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, was up 1.3% in the first quarter from a year ago.

     

    This is the statement made in the GDP press release this morning:

     

    "Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 7.6 percent, compared with an increase of 13.6 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent. Services increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y

     

    More detailed information is provided in the tables of that release:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/18gfCFy

     

    In the technical note to the release, the government stated that the downward revision was due to "a downward revision to services. Within services, the revision was widespread; the largest contributors were “other” services (notably net foreign travel, legal services, and personal care services), health care (notably dental services and home health care services), and the gross output of nonprofit institutions (specifically hospitals)."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/18gfCFA
    26 Jun 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    Interesting stock I happened on (NVTL).

     

    They've developed new technology for remote management of irrigation with wifi. Some computer's set to buy early in the day, last two days (steep incline). Up 9+% this morning. I'm wondering if it's good for looking for a good entry point on the next down market day? Not much volume most of the time.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Here is another article on BDC'S..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Has comments on (PSEC)..

     

    Appreciate opinions on investing in this group. I thought I remember SOUTH being concerned about putting money here. Why??
    26 Jun 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    For what ever it's worth Sprott Resource Corporation also pays a nice dividend. I am long.
    http://bit.ly/12pGTNm

     

    The only downside if any is it is a little thinly traded.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Can I trust a guy with long hair, facial hair, on a motorcycle ??

     

    BTW. I also have hair, although the color has changed over the last few years .. lol
    26 Jun 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Yes, more grey then I'd like but still young at heart. Motorcycle and bicycle I tend to favour the bicycle more. The mailings from the Cremation Society are bothersome almost as bad as AARP.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    FWIW, I like the looks of NVTL right now.

     

    Also considering (AMD) for a trade.
    Just got an upgrade to outperform from FBR Capitol for whatever thats worth.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    Thanks. (NVTL) Looks good even after the 14% increase? I starred at the chart from yesterday's down then today's 5% up & on. I wonder if there are any clues that it was popping (that I can learn from for the future.) I was starring at a great opportunity but in these situations, are there signals?

     

    (AMD) I read they've supposedly recently found their niche, low margin low end chips. For long term, it didn't impress me as a strong business stance. For short term it seems to be getting lots of positive hype, so they may well climb. What's drawing you in?

     

    I don't know AMD now, but back 25 years ago they were the new kids on the block. I kept saying they're the place to be, but I'd never invested before & didn't. ...I was right on the money, based on watercooler talk.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    I tried to get me some NVLT today with a limit order but didn't work, may try again tomorrow.

     

    I did get some AMD today, but only 1/2 my order got filled.

     

    I simply like the chart on both, the way the technicals are turning up. If NVLT can break the early June high maybe it can run a little. Both would be short term trades for me.

     

    Something I dont especially like about AMD is the previous 3 days price went up but on declining volume but hard to say where it goes.
    I use my gambling money for these trades, small positions.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    I had posted this previously in one of the other chapters, but, for coherence here is the basics for finding and checking out dividend stocks:

     

    Part 1:http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Part 2:http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    What I also do that he doesn't cover is go to the companies website and get their SEC filings for the last 2 years so I can look at the last 8 quarters to see how they handle their accounting for revenues, inventory, earning and cash flow. Many times you can not "see" if the numbers are being massaged to meet expectations without going through their reports and reading the notes. One of the things that turns me off from a company is when I see that they are making changes to their accounting or recognizing revenues now to meet expectations. Because I know later they will pay for it. I look to see if inventory is backing up on them because this could also be a sign of later losses due to write downs/offs, or a sign of slowing sales.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What a shock GDP revised DOWN !!

     

    MBA Mortgage Applications: -3.0% vs. -3.3% last week. Is this becoming a trend ??
    26 Jun 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Think about the anomalous situation of people in near hysteria about upward rate pressures while at the same time fearing a weakening economy. Either the economy is going to weaken or rates are going to rise, but not both.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    I agree 100%. If you get a chance can you look at the article I posted about BDC'S and critique it if needed.

     

    I PM'D the author to ask him to join us as well. Not sure he will though. Now if the economy does weaken how does that effect companies like (PSEC) ?

     

    That is my personal question. Looking to add to my position but thinking I might have a better entry point with some negative data coming out and possibly worse then expected 2nd quarter results.

     

    So would it be prudent for an investor in these BDC'S to wait?

     

    Thanks!
    26 Jun 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Link to article?

     

    Will then comment on BDC's.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks!
    26 Jun 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Thanks for that link. A nice overview of many BDC's.

     

    The only comment I would make about the ranking chart is that I find "profit" and "valuation" to be the two most critical columns on which to focus, followed by current payout. Risk, I believe, is very hard to calibrate for a BDC's private-client portfolio, and analysts' opinions I would read only to discover some fact I overlooked, but not to form any opinion.

     

    I am particularly sensitive to any BDC which has a price/book extremely above 1.0 and out of line with industry averages. Recently, for example, MAIN had the industry's highest price/book, and it was hit especially hard in the previous weeks and during the recent meltdown.

     

    As usual, the "valuation" measure probably has disproportionate worth in judging future compound growth. Consequently, among my favorite current holdings are TICC, AINV, FSC, PSEC and, especially ACAS. ACAS is the only BDC not paying dividends, as management has decided to direct all profits to repurchasing shares as long as share price lags NAV (currently 63%). While not so swell for income seekers, this is a completely logical strategy, and when ACAS finally does approach resumption of dividends, I would expect the shares to rise rapidly.

     

    Lastly, as an income class, most BDC's have been unfairly punished in the recent panic, as they will benefit from a rise in rates, as they overwhelmingly lend on a variable rates basis. Furthermore, they have used the past few years to restructure their balance sheets with increased equity and long-term debt, which will not be impacted by a rise in short-term rates.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Would you consider (PSEC) price to be a good entry point, or wait for another pullback?

     

    Am looking to add more to it . Just not sure when.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    It's impossible to time pullbacks. I'd consider PSEC a decent value at current prices. If its price is below your average basis, then adding shares can only lower your net average basis, which can't be bad.

     

    I note you only mention PSEC is numerous posts. i don't know how much money you are allocating to PSEC, but i'd be sure to have a few BDC's, not just one, and no more than 2-5% of assets in any one name.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    Question:

     

    As most everyone knows, mREITS (NLY) (AGNC) (WMC), etc have been slammed and their yields have increased:
    NLY=13%, AGNC=18%, WMC=22%.

     

    I thought these entities made money, in part, on the difference between short and long term rates.
    Since borrowing costs are low wouldn't the return on mortgage securities it buys be bigger with higher long term rates?
    Since short term rates are still low and IMO, the Fed is unlikely to raise short term rates, and since longer term rates have increased and created a widening of the yield curve, I would think this would be a positive for mREITS unless LT rates decline and they caught in between.

     

    In the Fed keeps buying MBS's would that be a problem for these REITS?

     

    I am obviously not seeing the whole picture so hopefully someone can fill in the blank spaces.
    Or are mREITS such as NLY, AGNC, WMC turning into a good buying opportunity? Even if they do cut the divi's going forward thats quite a yield.

     

    Wondering if it might be safe to get back in the water.

     

    Any insight appreciated.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    tam:

     

    You must consider the question from the position of an existing portfolio.

     

    For example, if an MREIT has an existing portfolio at an existing spread, let's examine what happens if rates move upward. If long-term rates move higher, their existing securities don't pay any additional yield (unless they are adjustable-rate issues), but as the existing market is demanding higher rates, the value of their portfolio drops. And, if they're financing that existing portfolio with short-term borrowing, then their carrying costs increase in relation to short-term rates. Therefore, only a new purchase benefits from any increase in the spread, not the existing portfolio (unless they're holding variable-rate securities.)

     

    Now, the lambasting that MREITs have taken is probably way out of proportion with changes in their actual profitability, but increasing rates will crimp most fixed-rate MREITs. The companies carrying more variable-rate paper should be better bets, at least relatively, e.g., MFA, IVR, DX, MTGE.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    Thanks tack.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Boy, just got back from my doctor's visits and not too many postings. Are people making money here today?

     

    I heard on the radio the market closed up pretty high for the day. So did I miss something?

     

    Or is everyone out as well..
    26 Jun 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Well, it's my work week and I don't tend to post much anyway. I prefer to read. Doctor's vists - as in plural? Hope things are well.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Kept my eyes on (GLP) all day today. Seems a very interesting profitable business called by Tampat 2 days ago. Glad I did not buy yet.

     

    Krustyman
    26 Jun 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    I see it traded in a pretty wide range today. You may very well get a better price, the techs seem to be turning down. Be interesting to see if it can hold the 20 & 50 day MA's.
    I bought a 1/3 position when I opened it so will add if it falls as this isn't a short term trade for me, hopefully it doesnt pull a WAG :)
    26 Jun 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Tampat:

     

    I am really interested by that business. Thanks again for bringing it to our attention.

     

    Leave me alone with WAG ;-)

     

    Krustyman
    26 Jun 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    I posted already too many times about my condition. It is plural though.I am sure others here are in the same boat too.

     

    Try to line em all up in the same day since they all belong to a giant conglomerate group where I live.

     

    They cornered the market for sure, even have a new hospital built because of them. Not to mention we get the NYC doctor's here as well.

     

    I live an hr outside the city so they might not be the sharpest tools in the box but they suffice until I need the heavy hitters then I head into the city.

     

    Bad back, three level fusion, failed surgery, guy ran a red light !!...So it's Pain Management, GP, Surgeon, Neurologist, etc. Just hit a few of them all at once. Between a few buildings..

     

    Thanks for asking though.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Ah. The fact that you still work part-time tells me a lot about your character. Good on you!
    26 Jun 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Have you looked at any of the health care or MOB Reits?
    Brad Thomas and some other SA writer (I forgot) writes some pretty extensive articles on them.
    I figured since you spend time in them, well, you know.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Thanks pal... I will look into them. Maybe on my next visits as now the offices have wifi !!
    26 Jun 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    Here are a couple recent articles by Brad on the REITS in case you haven't read him to get familiar with his subject.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Jun 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TOO young to sit around all the time. My officiating for 25 years gives me an advantage with the assignor. Being rated in the Top 10 doesn't hurt either.

     

    But in softball I don't go behind the plate anymore, which I miss. In soccer I stepped down from the higher level games unless we use a three person system which has less running involved.

     

    Basketball is a goner, and am considering giving up College too as the traveling around the state wears on my back too much. But I still have to make ends meet.

     

    Work about nine months out of the year though. Plus a good attorney helped out with the settlement... leased cars a few years ago had a loophole that dealers were held liable as well. It was essentially considered a rented car so they had the deep pockets, and we got some of that !

     

    Since then they closed that hole up quickly. But I would trade it all back to be able to walk pain free to be honest. A good night sleep I also miss.

     

    Know what is tougher though. GETTING SOME LIKES ON THIS BLOG!!
    26 Jun 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I'm not sure if likes are in vogue anymore, but I'll do you one. I'm sure this has already been recommended or tried by the MDs you see, but sometimes a lidoderm patch or three can help for chronic pain and has the benefit of not being addictive.

     

    If it makes you feel better, I had a patient this week who was crushed by a crane whilst working for the government twenty years ago and no amount of drugs we could give him would help. What did help was taking away his wheelchair restriction and allowing him to use a walker. In just one day he was doing better pain wise just knowing he could pretty much take care of himself.

     

    So I would encourage you to stay as active as you are able without hurting yourself. Take care until sometime next week when I'm not working.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER.

     

    Yup, tried that before the surgery. That was candy compared to what I was on.

     

    PM me next week and I will lay it all out for you. Take care during work !

     

    I do try to stay active for my sanity and my family..
    26 Jun 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    I see Charlie folded his hand on (CLWR). I wonder what he will do for spectrum he seems to have big plans, T-Mobile maybe? I am long the Dish for a small position.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    The underground economy ... Check out this stash of cash...

     

    http://read.bi/17Dgnch
    26 Jun 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10221) | Send Message
     
    bd4uandu - they have the same problem I do.....where do you put all the stuff.....need to bring back $100,000 bills. (ha, ha)
    26 Jun 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Geez, talk about greedy. Why not stop taking all the risk once you hit 100 million?
    27 Jun 2013, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10221) | Send Message
     
    richonsilver....great point...once you pass a certain level, I would think you would want to begin to migrate to "legitimacy" buying real estate, stocks, companies, etc. Curious.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Personally after the first couple million I would disappear. Why put yourself at risk. They must be into the product.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1283) | Send Message
     
    IT sorry about your accident & back problems. I am in awe of your spirit, in spite of all the pain.

     

    Have you tried meditation or acupuncture. If you decide to try acupuncture, look for a traditional Chinese person.

     

    To take my mind off of the market, I watch the ID discovery channel. I love seeing criminals get their just desserts. It scares me how normal the murderers appear. Why young women go out alone late at night, or date strangers off the internet also mystifies me. You'd think they would be more careful.

     

    I've got a long list of stocks to buy but I'm being careful. Earnings for this latest quarter are supposed to be lackluster, so we may see some more downside in the next couple of months. So maybe we will get another opportunity to buy like we just had.

     

    Some companies that I'm anticipating to add to my positions are (HON), (IBM), (KKD), (BAC), (BP), (UNH), (MCK), (SDRL). Here are some stocks I want to start positions in (UTX), (LO), (LMT), (XOM), (BUD). I own (LVS), (YHOO) and am watching them closely as they are not making me comfortable. Maybe longterm they will.

     

    I sold all my (GE) and (TM) and several other stocks when I cashed out my Ameriprise account in April/May. Now I have a lot of cash from that account that needs to be invested. Since this is a taxable account, I'm trying not to pay a lot to the gov't. Lately I've been thinking it's best to have dividend stocks in my retirement accounts, and stocks that grow but don't pay much of a dividend in my investing account. I'm just really tired of paying taxes!

     

    Have a good evening everyone.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Bluesky,

     

    Like your list..

     

    especially -- (LVS) , own it , believe it will do just fine LT .... Planning to add on weakness
    26 Jun 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    "If you decide to try acupuncture, look for a traditional Chinese person."
    Every time we eat Chinese out I lay on the table and let them stick forks in me if that is what you mean. lol

     

    Bad joke, sorry ! Thanks for the symbols for the lurkers and us. I have tried everything prior to the 9 hour surgery . Now after 6 years they have no clue why I am in the pain I am in. Hospital for Special Surgery are miffed as well.

     

    But I don't give up hope. I did give up those nasty pain pills after many years as they weren't helping anymore either.

     

    I just try to keep my mind off of it, and accept the hand that is dealt.

     

    Thanks!
    26 Jun 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    That's ARO'D basement!!
    26 Jun 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    This deflation has me confused again, I know the CPI lies, and I still believe many prices are lower due to government subsidies (and therefore hidden in the debt), but it is still puzzling how corporate profits have not collapsed. But more confusing still is this thought that QE is mostly just increasing the balance sheet of the banks, and the banks aren't lending money. If banks are lending its either because people don't want to borrow or banks don't want to lend or the people that want to borrow are too risky or the banks only want to lend to people that don't need the money.

     

    So, if this is the case, why is there still QE or better yet, why do we care if they taper?

     

    Like I said, I am confused.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    fishfryer, the Fed can't force banks to lend. If you own a bank, why would you want to lock in a long term low interest rate when you know rates are going to go higher? It's a losing proposition. So they invest in derivatives and try to make a buck where they can. Some of them increasingly have played the gold and silver derivatives market. Easy for them to play that market as a small amount of money can move it the directions they want.

     

    It is impossible for the Fed to taper. It would kill the real estate market. We've seen the effect on the stock market. Just a .50 interest rate hike means they have $500 billion more to pay on the interest owed on the national debt. They can't afford to do that. The economy would halt as velocity is already dried up. Problem is, it's already a failure because the Fed throwing money at the economy/banks/whomever, isn't doing anything to improve the data. Hence, GDP, consumer behavior, durable goods and housing data all short of expectations the last couple of days.

     

    Remember, the Fed and everyone else didn't see 2007 coming. What makes anyone think they can "improve" the economy with their maneuvers?
    26 Jun 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    Doug, I agree with every single thing you wrote, that is my confusion.

     

    ' the Fed can't force banks to lend. If you own a bank, why would you want to lock in a long term low interest rate when you know rates are going to go higher? It's a losing proposition'

     

    But still the Fed goes on with QE and basically gives the banks that were to big to fail more money so they become bigger. It makes no sense.

     

    But, that contradicts with

     

    'It is impossible for the Fed to taper. It would kill the real estate market.'

     

    Agreed, so they do lend the money out. Right?

     

    So we have the real reason on my confusion, they only lend out a little bit of this QE, is it because there is too much of it or is it the least amount they can lend out and not catch flak? If they got less, would they lend less?

     

    Why is the government going into debt just to get allow the banks to make easy money? The conspiracy theories abound here, but even that seems too far fetched even for the tin foil hat crowd I hang out with.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FISH

     

    Thoughts on gold and silver getting trounced??
    26 Jun 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    @ Fishfryer

     

    I'm not a macro expert so I'll preface with that. But yep, I find all of it confusing. The general investor/public reaction is nothing like mine with every news release. Moreover, I'm quite sure back in May in comments on days before the Congressional report & in the report, BB as much as said it's time to end QE; it's no longer accomplishing what we want it to.

     

    I also find confusing the sell offs & panics in various sectors that are often opposite to historically traditional movements. For instance, stocks & bonds tend to move opposite each other... So you're not alone in wondering these things :).
    26 Jun 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I truly believe that at times the banks work for the Fed by performing certain tasks. It is like Blackwater Security and the military.

     

    I do believe that gold will become an important part in the future with respect to international trade. The only reason I can see for a government sponsored gold takedown is to shake people confidence in any possible alternative currency and to make sure the dollar maintains its utility in commerce. After all, fiat money is only money because your trading partner has another use for it. Our dollar is basically only good to buy oil with. Every government that tried to use gold or the euro to sell oil for is either toppled (Libya, Iraq) or is on the radar like Iran.

     

    I cannot for the life of me understand why the Fed would support a program to lower the price of gold unless it would destabilize an economic enemy. But I don't get it. I've heard that central banks don't want their currencies dropping against gold because it looks bad, but that makes little sense. I am confused because I believe the banks are doing it and the government allows it even though it is harmful to the country. So even if it is a payoff or something for the banks, I don't get that either, there are easier ways with less risk because gold is important in the world.

     

    The existence of insane amounts of paper gold, the fact that paper gold sets the price, the fact that the takedowns are done in a manner inconsistent with a strategy to maintain price but to crush it all confuses me. No sane seller wants to push prices down if they have more to sell. So we know this is purposeful.

     

    The reason for the takedowns make no sense to me, but I do believe that there will be a time in the near future when the yuan rises at the expense of the dollar. Yuan swaps are being set up all throughout the world, the Chinese want the yuan to be a reserve currency due to the competitive advantages and the fact that they are a very big player in the world and NOT being a reserve currency makes they look weak.

     

    Luckily for me I have no debt, cash and cash flow Never in my life have I sold an ounce of physical gold, i am a buyer, plain and simple. Equities and real estate create cash flow, but gold is an asset for me to diversify completely out of the banking system. My greatest fear is to be 70 years old, poor, unable to work and have all my paper assets worthless. Imagine losing your real estate due to taxes, no tenants, no rent checks and then hoping social security is there? Not me. Gold is an IRA in the bank of fishfryer.

     

    So, as I have always said, I hope gold goes to zero, then I can buy it all. But we know that somehow the physical price will decouple from the paper price before then. It may happen at an exchange in Asia first, but only after all the gold has moved east. My time frame is 20 years, if I don't ever need it great, I hope not. I hope I never need to sell an ounce of gold.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    FF
    Your fear is a common one to be at a vulnerable time in life and watch saved assets rendered valueless.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    fishfryer:

     

    The banks are just conduits. It is the GSE's making these loans at these ridiculously low yields. Bankers are not stupid. They are not going to make a 30 yr fixed rate loan at 3.5% or so. But our handy dandy government will through all of these sponsored programs. Fannie, Freddie, FHA, Farm Credit and USDA just to mention a few. This is how we got into problem to start with. The government changed the underwriting rules and ruined the program.

     

    BB will buy mortgage back securities issued by Fannie and Freddie at ridiculous prices so they can go in the market and buy more mortgages at ridiculous rates that are issued by the banks and sold to Fannie and Freddie.

     

    The government tarp bailout program has shown a profit for the taxpayer. Not so with the GSE programs.

     

    http://bloom.bg/12snTOa
    27 Jun 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    extreme

     

    and that's why audits are verboten
    27 Jun 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10221) | Send Message
     
    fishfryer:

     

    "I cannot for the life of me understand why the Fed would support a program to lower the price of gold unless it would destabilize an economic enemy. But I don't get it. I've heard that central banks don't want their currencies dropping against gold because it looks bad, but that makes little sense. I am confused because I believe the banks are doing it and the government allows it even though it is harmful to the country. So even if it is a payoff or something for the banks, I don't get that either, there are easier ways with less risk because gold is important in the world."

     

    IMHO - the Central Banks are extensions of the private bankers and what the private bankers want is all the real stuff they can get. I suspect when it's all said and done, the real ownership of physical gold will be found to have been transferred by indecipherable means from sovereign nations to private parties.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    Finally wrote my bullish article and submitted it to Seeking Alpha editors at 1pm PST with the fast track check marked since it is time sensitive. It's now 6:45pm and they have not posted it or given feedback. It's been over a month now since I have written an article on SA. How long does it take for SA editors to review? Anyone?

     

    26 Jun 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOUG

     

    Welcome back.. When it does get approved please post it here...Now what's your thoughts on gold and silver getting hammered lately?
    26 Jun 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    IT, my guess is they will.come back with some "recommendations" to make it better. They continually do this to me and it throws off the timing of my articles. They always want me to add stocks, ETFs and the like and not just talk about physical gold and silver. They hate physical gold and silver.

     

    Gold is up $14 since I released my article. I have many people waiting to read my article, but have to wait for SA editors to post it. I get more readership from SA, so I have to wait for them.

     

    My article will explain things IT. Too long to post everything here.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    @ Doug

     

    "add stocks, ETFs and the like and not just talk about physical gold and silver."

     

    Interesting because I've found several author's articles had stocks/EFTs added that obviously didn't fit into the point / flow of the article. So I'd guess you aren't the only one... Looking forward to reading it when it's published!
    26 Jun 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DOUG

     

    But I am anxious!! I can wait....
    26 Jun 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    It's been close to 8 hours now. I can't wait for them. I have taken it away from their control and will just post on my site. Think I am done with Seeking Alpha.

     

    I'll post my article here, but I can guarantee you one thing. I have documented the editors at Seeking Alpha's bias against gold from the beginning before they even had a Gold and Precious metals category. They are just like CNBC in that they only want readers to learn about stocks, bonds, ETFs and other paper investments. I wrote negative things about my own industry, warning investors about how some gold dealers (like Glenn Beck's) rip off their clients. They didn't think it was something those buying gold should learn about. I have to fight with them each time I write an article to appease their editors.

     

    Why have a fast track check mark if it takes 7 hours or longer to get the article out? In a few hours my article becomes irrelevant because of using words like "today's GDP report." I look like the fool! Don't need SA any longer.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    I look forward to reading what you have written Doug. If you get it out there(Somewhere) please let us know. Thanks in advance.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOUG

     

    I can understand the frustration. Once I was put under *moderation* for over 4 months. So every post I made took over 7 hours to appear. You know how awkward some responses were?

     

    When I asked why, I was given no valid reason. That is why I started this blog. I KNOW of a poster who had the ear of someone big at SA. He did not care for me because I had caught him in lies and called him out.

     

    So I try not to comment too much on other articles. In fact I did recently and attached a link to one of my chapters. Next thing I know the chapter was removed because I used CAPITAL letters . Can you imagine that !
    26 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    The thought police.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    IT, yes, I can imagine that, lol.

     

    There is a reason I own my company rather than work for someone else. I am in control of my own destiny and don't need Seeking Alpha to dictate what I can and can't do with what I write. This is censorship, biased as it is, just like CNBC.

     

    I will continue to respond to comments and get my version of the truth out to those who want to hear it. NO CAPS! haha!
    26 Jun 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I know no yelling!
    26 Jun 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    Here's my article;

     

    Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver?

     

    http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ
    26 Jun 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link Doug interesting read. I agree the Fed can't get off the QE junk higher borrowing costs through rates will eat up the budget. How will they buy our votes to stay in power?
    26 Jun 2013, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOUG

     

    Horrible timing !! lol
    26 Jun 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2667) | Send Message
     
    IT, what do you mean horrible timing? I waited specifically for this drop before submitting. The price is up after hours and close to about the price at the time I wrote it. About $4 off for gold and 7 cents off for silver. I'll take that any day, haha!

     

    This is as bullish as I have been in a long time. Call it intuition, or what have you, but I feel good about it. Doesn't mean I'm right. But my track record compared to most "gold bugs" is rather good.

     

    bd4uandu, they won't buy our votes. We're done with them.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    Here's my article;

     

    Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver?

     

    http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ

     

    Thanks Doug. I plan to read this soon.
    27 Jun 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, OPENING Chapter 18 with Doug's article so if others can post their opinion there I would appreciate it

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Two questions answered in Chapter 18..Who is the most famous athlete to wear #18? and why?

     

    CURLS.. Who is the most famous runner? and why?
    26 Jun 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    Number # 18 PEYTON Manning ! At least in Tennessee
    27 Jun 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    That's my choice and I need a good argument why not, except did he win the Super Bowl enough??
    27 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    The answer is NO he did not. He's 1 for 2 . But he should have been in a couple more IMO. Last year was a downer for my brother ,who moved to Colorado and watched every minute of the loss to Baltimore . He was sick about it. My brother is an all out Manning fan and Denver fan ,

     

    I used to love Roman Gabriel when I was a young football fan ,and a Rams fan. I seem to remember him being #18 and a Native American from North Carolina.
    27 Jun 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    Poorly timed interceptions do have that result..
    27 Jun 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2477) | Send Message
     
    Those seem to occur when the Team becomes Desperate. The one against N.O. was awful. Not in a Superbowl,just too final. But in Denver last year that play should have never happened,there wouldn't be an overtime if the defense had played the last minute of the game for Denver. However, Peyton did panic and throw a terrible pass on the run. He should NEVER throw on the run,it ain't what he does. But you did ask about who was the most"famous" ,that is why i answered Peyton :)
    27 Jun 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I would like to ask the group in general about two things I have big interest in. First, silver. Although the plunge was not entirely unexpected, breaking into the teens was, at least for me. Silver has dropped a mind-boggling 45% in 8 months. Since I was in eight months ago I have no choice but to ride out the storm all the way. I am confident it rebounds but now, rather than months, I expect the climb back to say $40 will be years... Thoughts on that???

     

    Secondly, I am gaining access to some IRA funds late this year and want to re-allocate them (lets say about $10k) to either silver (average down on PSLV) or I am seriously considering finding a dividend bearing stock. I would like to find one that has a relatively stable price now and hopefully long term. I would like to invest the approx $10k, re-invest the dividends into more of the same stock for a few years (5+) and then start taking the monthly dividends. One stock I have become most interested in PSEC. The price has remained inside the $10-12 range for a long time and the dividend itself is a whopping 12-13%. Why every investor doesn't jump on this is a mystery to me but they say "if it seems too good to be true, it usually is." That is my fear about PSEC. So, my second question/request for info is about PSEC. Does anyone know much about it? 12-13% dividend re-invested can really grow. Seems to me this stock could generate $200-300 per month pretty fast with a $10k start and re-investing the monthly dividend for a few years. Is this one too good to be true? Thanks in advance.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    I am in a similar boat with PM holdings I intend to ride it out I hope it's back in months not years.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I would like to think there will be an encouraging rebound over the next few months but I think coming all the way back from the 8 month drop of 45% will take more than months. Since mine is within an IRA I can't touch for several years, I can wait but it is just nicer to watch it grow rather than simply recover from a plunge.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RICH

     

    You might want to read Doug's new article posted here and in the next chapter as well..
    27 Jun 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4091) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    IMHO , whether its 10 K, or 100 k or 1 M , I suggest that you should not put it in one position... no matter how good that situation looks now ..
    27 Jun 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (993) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    FWIW, I think F&G is right about not putting it all in one.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (9672) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks

     

    Before Curls gets upset lets answer the last question in the next chapter.. lol

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Jun 2013, 12:25 AM Reply Like
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