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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 19.........  138 comments
    Jun 27, 2013 10:15 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Let the posting begin!!

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Comments (138)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, the best athlete with #19 !!!

     

    Easy one ...

     

    How low does gold go?? Silver ??

     

    Post away >>>>
    27 Jun 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    IT: My best guess is a return to the price prevailing before the FED launched QE on 3/18/19. Prior to that announcement, the London gold fix was at $893.45 and $12.61 for silver. (see my discussion in Chapter 18).

     

    Past Historical Fix
    http://bit.ly/17mLc1B

     

    My theory is that investors believed that QE would cause problematic inflation. Gold spiked up in price on the first London Fix after the Fed's announcement.

     

    Eventually, investors had to come to a realization, based on the CPI and PCE price index data, that there was no problematic inflation on the horizon. Possibly the reason lies in the rapid decrease in the velocity of M2 as more money was added by the FED, indicating that the additional new money was just catching a few rays and consequently could not cause inflationary pressures anymore than if you buried a couple trillion in your back yard.

     

    Thus, starting in September 2011, more and more investors started to change their minds on this point. and eventually that change in opinion reached a critical mass causing a more rapid spike down, quickly breaching all previous technical support levels like cutting through butter.

     

    So I am about $110 lower than F & G.

     

    In any event, I am not a buyer or a seller at these price levels. I may buy a couple of silver eagle rolls when and if silver declines below $13 an ounce.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Wow, you are below what it cost to extract it then. I am sure you have your reasons but I don't understand how it can stay that low if plants shut down.

     

    Supply vs Demand and silver is used by thousands of companies products . Am I correct or what am I missing?
    27 Jun 2013, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    IT: Industrial demand will eventually prop up the silver price. That may be more of a 2015-2016 story than a 2013 one.

     

    It is may understanding, for example, that China's silver imports fell 28% in April:

     

    http://bit.ly/13bjgQ7

     

    See also:
    http://bit.ly/13bjgQa

     

    http://bit.ly/zfQpgo

     

    http://bit.ly/13bjgQe

     

    There is also supply created by melting junk silver coins and other products that have no value other than in their silver content.

     

    There is nothing that says that price can not go below the cost of production.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "There is nothing that says that price can not go below the cost of production."

     

    I agree with that 100%. My metals were bought years ago so I am still ahead of the game. Just thought that the money printing was going to cause inflation and higher prices.

     

    Now I am not so sure, but I also know BB isn't fond of deflation either.

     

    Very confusing these metals are !!
    27 Jun 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (899) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Silver stayed in the $4-8 range for a while despite the economy that was doing OK.

     

    Krustyman
    28 Jun 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    krusty

     

    yes, that's might have coincided when the gov't was dumping its 8B ounces inventory or so in the markets ...I'd have to do some research for time frame
    28 Jun 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Here is a cool graphic from VC about gold production costs:

     

    http://bit.ly/14ehyKA
    28 Jun 2013, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3524) | Send Message
     
    No Number for you since it went below $19 you should have asked this for your last chapter at $18 .

     

    "I have a quote though.
    Inside of every problem lies an opportunity."
    Robert Kiyosaki
    28 Jun 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3524) | Send Message
     
    Johnny Unitas .

     

    Wouldn't it be great to have a president named UNITAS,instead of OBombuh
    28 Jun 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3524) | Send Message
     
    Watched a Gold documentary that stated that most of what South America produces is not from companies mining with equipment,but the Peruvian miners that go out with very little technology getting about an Oz. a day. They said it was illegal mining. IMHO It's theirs if they can get it out of the jungle,not the stinking governments.They sold their Oz. for about $800.00 to the Peruvian dealer.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    Your a dealer. Worth a flight there ? At that price I might join you and just flip them !!
    28 Jun 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    Coin

     

    I agree with you; in my opinion, it is not illegal mining? the miners take all the risks going in the jungle and it belongs to the government? the gold prospectors of 150 years ago in this country did not give their found gold to the government.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @KRUSTY

     

    Sorry, not buying into it ever going that low again.. Even I have my limits. I will accept it when a loaf of bread cost a nickel. Was going to say a penny but I know Canadians have no use for them anymore!! :)
    28 Jun 2013, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    IT ,

     

    My previous comments here and elsewhere on SA , paint a picture of a the distinct possibility for a $1,000 price for gold.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    You could be right! But it won't be sustainable as BB can't stop the printing. I still feel everyone should have exposure to a % of their portfolio in metals though.

     

    We will see in a few months where this goes. If we are entering a deflationary period BB won't be happy..

     

    No guess on #19 ??
    27 Jun 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    IT, we have been in a deflationary period with Bernanke fighting it tooth and nail. Read his 2002 speech on his strategy; "Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here"

     

    http://1.usa.gov/11NslMe

     

    This is where the gold bulls construed his "dropping money from a helicopter" comment, but it wasn't him who said it, but a reference to the one who said it, Milton Friedman.

     

    His version is QE infinity. This is being swallowed up by the ongoing credit contraction, thus more QE, more QE, more QE. The amazing part to me is that those who are for this in "stimulating the economy," think that he can actually begin tapering. When interest rates rise, who will buy the Fed's assets? Please have someone explain to me how this will be accomplished and what the interest rate picture will be and the value of said assets as well as who has the ability to even make the purchases? The nations top banks?
    28 Jun 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @ Doug

     

    BB said the Fed won't be trying to sell the assets. I'd guess in order to answer to the questions from investors that the idea of selling them raises, as you outlined. (I'm not saying his statement makes sense.)
    28 Jun 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    @ curls-100,

     

    "I think we have the technical means to unwind at the appropriate time; of course picking the exact moment to do, of course, is always difficult."

     

    http://cnnmon.ie/11Nu4Ba

     

    Emphasis should be placed on the word, "difficult."
    28 Jun 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    Doug,
    Why does anyone have to buy the FED's assets? Why can't the FED hold its assets to maturity? The FED didn't borrow any money to make those purchases every month. It just printed money to do it.

     

    I can see where USG, via the Treasury Dept., has to eventually sell its holdings in companies and GSEs that have been bailed out.

     

    The situation I have been unable to find an answer to is the FED's holdings of US treasuries. IF USG defaults can the FED just "forgive" USG's default and "reset" to zero on its holdings on US treasuries? I know it will have other ramifications for global holders of US treasuries, such as the US losing its "reserve" currency status and higher borrowing cost to match the risk. I am just confused as to the relationship between the FED and USG since it has become so insestious. For example, USG "pays" the FED the interest due on its US treasury holdings. But, at the same time, all profits from the FED are returned to the Treasury Dept. I can see why people like Ron Paul want an audit of the FED. It is the only way to see the true health of USG because the "accounting" process has become so convoluted..
    28 Jun 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @Doug

     

    I'd have to google for it -- but he also said point blank that they wouldn't be trying to sell the bonds (but made no comment on MLSs). That's what I was referring to.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Notrub, you said, "why does anyone have to buy the Fed's assets?"

     

    A simple question back to this is, would you hold onto an asset paying 3% or 4% when the market is paying you 6%, 10% or higher? This is where we are headed eventually. Of course the Fed is trying all they can to keep rates low and hope that they can unload the assets in a thriving economy. But the economy isn't thriving.

     

    The profits of what the Fed invests in is supposed to be returned to the Treasury as you say. They have a reputation to uphold. They just can't sit on an unproductive asset.

     

    The entire TARP program they have spent 100's of millions trying to unwind, with some success and some failures, and this during a booming market. Who will buy the Fed's assets if we enter a period of time where the markets aren't booming? What are the odds of us just continuing higher in the markets when the economic fundamentals don't support that scenario?

     

    To bring up more food for thought, I ask the following questions as well...

     

    How long can the Fed continue to prop things up with QE infinity, and how long can they maintain credibility? What happened in just two weeks after Bernanke's "taper" comment to interest rates? Why did Fed President William Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell come out immediately after the markets were tanking and interest rates rising to quell market nerves?

     

    How did the Fed not see 2007/2008 coming? What makes anyone believe they can save the system next time there is a crisis when their balance sheet and printing press are already at maximum overdrive? Will Congress step in again and TARP us? Will the U.S. citizens stand for it?

     

    If you look at the current TARP program, it baffles the mind how much the Fed had to do to "save the system" the last time they got caught with their head in the sand. http://1.usa.gov/124y8s8

     

    What assurance does one have they will be successful next time?

     

    I'm actually dollar bullish, which most don't understand why. And I'm still in the deflation camp with Bernanke fighting it all the way in trying to stimulate that for which he can not.

     

    The U.S. won't default. They are going to be viewed as the last bastion of safety. Just look at how those in Argentina, Brazil and many other places are giving up their currency at a 30% hair cut just to have U.S. dollars.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Doug,
    something to ponder ,, has it ever occurred to anyone that the Fed may actually know what they are doing? is everyone here on SA or for that matter elsewhere, more astute, more educated , more experienced ?

     

    Fed haters can now bash away,, I'm neither a fed basher or a fed lover ,, but as stated many times we are in uncharted territory here and submit that I'm not drinking the Kool Aid from anyone that says it HAS to end badly..... Of course it will may be volatile , that comes with emotion, but I believe no one knows how it wil end ..

     

    I submit that anyone that has structured his/her investment decisions on Fed watching and "end badly scenario during this QE episode has missed the most powerful rally in history..

     

    Like it or not the FED told everyone what to do when this started.. U will get no return on savings for the foreseeable future. let's take a wild guess as to what's left.. I have clients today that still complain about the present climate we are in .. they sit on cash,,, if they can sleep at night I am happy for them , I totally understand , but dont whine about it..

     

    I like to keep it simple - u play the cards that are dealt ,I've been called a simple person--- the call to get into equities with this Fed was the easiest call i had to make in 30 years.. People were told what to do .. question was did they listen, what has transpired in the equity market should come as no surprise. IMHO watch the price action of the markets , they tell the story, I leave the fed noise to those that like to conjur up things that may or may not occur ..
    28 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    Actually Doug the FED can sit on assets till maturity. Look at all the MBSs they have purchased since 2008. They KNOW they couldn't give most of them away. Yet, they continue to make the monthly purchases to keep the GSEs afloat.

     

    The FED could, in theory, expand its balance sheet to the current US debt of 17 trillion without repercussion except on the value of the dollar. There is nothing material to force the FED to sell anything. Thus the saying "Don't fight the FED." Because if it came down to it the FED could produce the resources to protect their interest. As the people last week found out who put up the $14 billion play on US dollar.

     

    As far as reputation, the FED's has been in the dirt for years. What has changed now?

     

    I sometimes think people get the FED and the US government mixed up. They are separate entities. They do not have have the same risks associated with their financial policies. It is entirely in the realm of possibilities that the US government could default at the same time the FED continues to make a profit.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: BB stated in the recent news conference that a majority of FED members "now expects that the Committee will not sell agency mortgage-backed securities during the process of normalizing monetary policy, although in the longer run, limited sales could be used to reduce or eliminate residual MBS holdings" He then went on to say that "these matters are unlikely to be relevant to actual policy for quite awhile".

     

    Page 2
    http://1.usa.gov/15FpiDe

     

    He also talks at page 13 of the transcript about rolling over maturing securities as a means to continue monetary stimulus after the asset purchases stop.

     

    A list of holdings can be found at the NYFED and there is a constant stream of maturing treasury securities:

     

    http://bit.ly/12yg38A
    28 Jun 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Notrub, I'm not saying they can't. Of course they can. But how does that fit in with profitability and confidence in them?

     

    One of the first articles I wrote was "The Fed Is Still Releveant, For Now." Because of the power they have, I have been one of the few who sell gold that has been bullish on the dollar. Other's, like Schiff and everyone in the Rockwell camp. keep dissing the dollar and crying inflation but it is the credit contraction (which the Rockwell crowd for the most part don't include in their definition of the money supply) that Bernanke is fighting. It is deflation that is his concern.

     

    The Fed's reputation hasn't been dirt until they changed things in 2008 with TARP and the purchases of assets they had no business of purchasing "to save the system." Their balance sheet at that time was primarily treasuries and "stable." Now look at it.

     

    The reason their reputation is "dirt" as you say now, is they changed the game. Many view this as successful, and so far, it gives the illusion of success. I read the data differently though and that's what I write about.

     

    I don't agree with your last sentence the way I read it. They work together. One cannot exist without the other. The Fed gives Congress the ability to abuse the system. Without the Fed, Congress would live within its taxable means. Without Congress, well, perhaps we should not go there. In a sense though, the Fed is about profit, but moving forward, they will find it hard to come by. Remember, these are the same people, Congress and the Fed, who didn't see the financial crisis coming. People seem to forget this important fact too.

     

    Thanks for the discussion. Have to get to other things. Curls, you too. I do appreciate all you say and I purposefully get into these conversations to understand what I might be missing for writing my books, hence my attitude may come off across as aggressive at times. I want to push people to their limits and see what they have to say.

     

    Cheers!
    28 Jun 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Doug,
    "Many view this as successful, and so far, it gives the illusion of success. "

     

    Just an observation :
    Client Monthly statements showing profits from the current policies , don't come with "fed induced " or "illusion " printed next to them ..
    Seems to all be quite "real " to me..

     

    Cheers !
    28 Jun 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    F&G, they didn't in 2007/2008 either. But Fed policy led to those statements and Fed policy, which is worse today than then, will be something some investors (not necessarily you as you have faith in the dividend paying stocks you are investing in) might have to deal with.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    respectfully,,, regarding the equity market , this isn't 2007 ,, not anywhere close...

     

    28 Jun 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Doug: Your statement that the "Fed's reputation hasn't been dirt until they changed things in 2008 with TARP" is not accurate.

     

    TARP monies were disbursed by the U.S. Treasury, not the Federal Reserve.

     

    http://bit.ly/124KY9O

     

    The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 originally authorized the Treasury to spend $700B that was later reduced to $475B.

     

    The money disbursed to banks was for the purchase of cumulative preferred stock that initially paid 5% for five years and thereafter at 9%. Most of that equity preferred stock was issued in late 2008. The U.S.Treasury also received common stock warrants as a kicker. While there have been some losses due to bank failures, wiping out the value of the government's preferred stock, the "Treasury has been earning a return on most of the TARP money invested or loaned. So far, the total return is: $50.9B."

     

    Quote from
    http://bit.ly/124KWP2

     

    This part of TARP is generally known as the "Capital Purchase Program"

     

    http://bit.ly/124KWP4

     

    The Fed has been earning substantial profits from its holdings of treasuries and mortgage backed securities.

     

    The FED is not buying toxic assets. This is a statement from the NY FED that specifies clearly that the purchases are only agency MBS:

     

    "Agency MBS purchases will likely be concentrated in newly-issued agency MBS in the To-Be-Announced (TBA) market because these securities have greater liquidity and are closely tied to primary mortgage rates. The Desk may purchase other agency MBS if market conditions warrant. Only fixed-rate agency MBS securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are eligible assets for purchase. These eligible assets include, but are not limited to, 30-year and 15-year securities of these issuers. Ineligible assets include CMOs, REMICs, Trust IOs/Trust POs and other mortgage derivatives or cash equivalents."

     

    http://bit.ly/16cCrHe

     

    In 2012, the FED returned $88.4B in profits to the Treasury, mostly from $80.5B in interest paid by the treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bought by the FED. The profit in 2011 was $77.4B and turned over about $77.4B of that amount to the Treasury.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reply Doug. I too am trying to find all the missing pieces and enjoy the conversations that make me look in other areas I hadn't previously considered.

     

    I have gotten into several conversations with people who are zealous about their positions so I have developed thick skin over the years and don't really take it personal. I am not out to convince, just to learn.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: I noted elsewhere that you recently bought XRX. There was a recently published negative article about XRX.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I recently sold my 100 shares at $9.43, which I will discuss in this Saturday's post. The profit was $192.87. By engaging in those trades, I satisfy my trading urges and consequently have an increased likelihood of leaving long term core positions alone.

     

    I will frequently flip these small, non-core positions for profits. Another recent example of that approach was the flip of 100 LF.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    Thanks SG.
    Yes, I read the article myself yesterday. Which made me go back and redo my homework on (XRX).

     

    The negatives are that it didn't pay a dividend this past DEC. And, also as the article mentioned, their accounting is suspect because of the use of acquisitions to cover up bad performance.

     

    The positives for me are that they are slowly getting out of the hardware space that everyone is familiar with, but is a dying business, copiers. And, is in the process of redefining its business in services. So I am basically viewing this as a turnaround play. Especially considering that it is trading under P/S (ttm): .51, price to book value: .98, Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 0.85, 20% payout ration on dividends, and debt to equity of 71%. Basically, everything screams at me undervalued. So I will give it a year or two to do the turnaround. As long as they don't miss another dividend payment. And, the stock doesn't drop 10% from my purchase price of 3.98. I would say I am cautiously optimistic about it????
    28 Jun 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    F&G, in my original statement that you posted, I was addressing Fed policy, "Many view this as successful, and so far, it gives the illusion of success." You turned this into an equity issue about clients and their statements that "they don't come with a "fed induced" or "illusion" next to them.". I replied the statements of 2007/2008 didn't come with those words next to them either.

     

    Regarding the Fed, this is 2007 and prior to 2007 all over again just like when Greenspan was pushing down interest rates causing some markets, stocks and real estate up. Now, it's dejavu with Bernanke and company, who are giving investors the "illusion" that things are normal again. The data I show says they are not. Economic Data Show Potential Of Stock Market Bubble http://bit.ly/124QCJ6

     

    The data that came out this week confirms this prior data, as I wrote about in my last article. The stock market is simply reacting to Fed Board members, not to the underlying data.

     

    If you read the data differently than me, that's ok. I call it like I see it and have a pretty good track record of doing so.
    28 Jun 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    BTW, I also put a covered call 7/20 option on it after purchase @9 for a $22 premium. But, I screwed up in my purchase because I bought it on the 26th which was XDIV day.

     

    And, I was incorrect above. My purchase price was 8.98.
    28 Jun 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: The services angle for XRX is a long term positive, compared at least to its copier business, but that is a tough space too with lots of competition (e.g. HP, IBM & Accenture) It is not the Holy Grail. ACN is getting knocked pretty good this morning on a miss.

     

    See Barron's Article from today:

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    28 Jun 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Thanks for the article.

     

    The "ray of light" I thought was XRX's business in the big data analysis market. Which right now only IBM is a competitor. It already has clients that are transitioning into big data, but don't know what to do with all of it to get the info they are looking for????

     

    So you think the long term prospects with its current management will still be underperform? In all honesty I would have dropped it back in DEC if I had held it.
    28 Jun 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    The Fed it seems is the enabler to the Federal debt junkie.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    My point was and still is, there is no "Illusion" , and further imply that anyone that has bought into that scenario has missed a nice rally.. nothing more - nothing less, its a simple fact .

     

    I note the article u wish to use to make your analogy about the "potential of a stock market bubble" comes from the "Buy Gold And Silver daily"

     

    All can follow data & pursue whatever sources they wish,, IMHO this is not 2007 and equities are not in a bubble ...The only "bubble" in the markets just broke..

     

    I have been fortunate, my track record didn't and does not include the "illusion" scenario...

     

    Be well, enjoy the markets , ;) It will be interesting to see how it all plays out

     

    28 Jun 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Nortrub: Xerox is one of those companies where I will invest a limited amount of money (e.g. less than a $1,000) only when the valuation, risk and reward tilts in my favor toward a timing trade. I can not be too optimistic about its future given its past. I may have anywhere from 20 to 40 of those types of trades per year. Another recent example was 100 shares of Leapfrog sold at $10.15 after purchasing the shares at $7.86:

     

    7. Sold 100 LF at $10.01
    http://bit.ly/14CU4Q2

     

    When I go into one of those timing trades, I have a number of negative opinions about a company so I limit my risk primarily through my monetary exposure.

     

    I will also have a price target for an exit. I am not trying to hit a home run, or even a triple or a double. It is more like leaning into a pitch and hoping it nicks your jersey.

     

    For XRX, I set a price target in part by reading a slightly positive report from Morningstar, which has a consider to buy price at $7 or below:

     

    http://bit.ly/11O0Emm

     

    And, I also considered a negative report from S & P that has a two star rating on XRX with a $7 price target. That report is available at most brokerage firms.

     

    I will also use a two chart to set entry and exit points. The $9.5 price seemed to be a decent upside target with $7 or so as the downside purchase price range.

     

    2 Year YF Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/12PpqSi;range=2y;compare=;ind...

     

    And I will review some earnings reports too in setting potential entry and exit points.

     

    The first important step for me is how do I classify the stock. I classified XRX as being solely a stock suitable for timing trades based on valuation and an assessment of the relative balance between risk and rewards, using a limited and relatively insignificant amount of money to control risks.

     

    XRX is not nowhere near being a suitable core position in my conservative approach to stocks.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    SG,
    Thanks for the response.

     

    I am starting to get the impression I am weak in the area of setting price targets once I identify a stock to get into. This makes the 3rd trade when I sat down and thought about it I really don't have a "get out" target on the high side.

     

    I think my investing style has a lot to do with that. I have always just let my stock holdings run no matter what unless they crossed the 10% threshold.

     

    Thanks again. Something to think about.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    F&G, the article comes from my website, Buy Gold and Silver Safely, which is also the name of my first book (see reviews on Amazon.com) and the name of my company that sells gold and silver.

     

    I have been bullish on the stock market up until that article; bullish on the dollar and still am; and advising clients not to go "all in" on gold up until recently.

     

    For those investing in gold I have continually said to dollar cost average into an allocation, unlike Schiff, Turk and others who sell gold and just take your money and buy and move on to the next customer. I tell my clients to "hope" for a further pullback so they can obtain a better overall price. Of course, unlike you, I and they have to have confidence that precious metals are going to move higher in price. My interpretation of the data and understanding of the Fed and government, clearly is not the same as yours. That's ok.

     

    My next book is called "Illusions of Wealth," which is an expansion of Chapter 4 of my first book which is a road map to the future.

     

    I provide the data so people can make good decisions in my articles. What they do with it is up to them. My company specializes in the physical delivery of the metals to my clients as insurance against what I see for our economies future. If they see things similarly, they buy. If they don't, then they don't buy..

     

    Lastly, I was one of those guys who was trained by an industry that was pro stocks ALL the time. I learned how to step outside the financial advisor box and look in as to why advisors recommend what they do. When I bought all the CFP books and paid for the College for Financial Planning course to become a CFP, my attitude changed when their investment book had a section on gold that look like it was written by someone who didn't understand a thing about gold. That's why I wrote my book. But I took it a stop further and critiqued my entire industry of gold dealers for selling products that are 15% to 30% or more in commissions and ripping people off. I was instrumental in a $4.5 million lawsuit against one of them through the City of Santa Monica, asked to speak on Capital Hill about what I know and interviewed by the NY Times for a story on how gold dealers ripped people off. But then all of a sudden things changed. The gold dealer in question hired a K street lobbyist. Congress went on to something else. The story never appeared in the NY Times.

     

    I do agree with you that it will be interesting how things will play out and wish you the best. I know your money is on it and so is mine. That's what makes a market!
    28 Jun 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Doug,
    Thanks for sharing that info..
    Like u I call it the way I see it :)

     

    One thing we have in common is conviction to our thesis.

     

    We don't have to agree, but I firmly believe one has to have that conviction to be successful over time .

     

    Be well !
    28 Jun 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Great comment F&G...

     

    Be well yourself...
    28 Jun 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    F&G, I just checked your profile for the first time. Didn't even realize you were a financial advisor, lol. No wonder we both stand by our convictions!

     

    BTW, I did have my license plate here in California with the letters "CFP." I sold it for $1,000 to a CFP friend of mine.
    28 Jun 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Doug, the FOMC commenced raising its key rates in July 2004 after projections showed UR-3 would return to its natural unemployment rate (5.0%) in 2005Q4. Greenspan was not "pushing down interest rates" prior to 2007.

     

    natural UR chart: http://bit.ly/pqgjCS
    28 Jun 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Freddy,

     

    Thats an interesting website, thanks for the link.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Freddy, we might read different people or different charts, but I clearly remember Fed intervention and the "briefcase watch' from CNBC and was trading based on what the Fed was doing.

     

    http://bit.ly/14BF8zp
    28 Jun 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Better to look at stats instead of what agenda-driven bloggers say they are...
    http://bit.ly/14fuLCM

     

    Greenspan & the FOMC were merely fulfilling their full employment mandate 2002 to mid 2004. Raising rates to quell the realty bubble would have induced an outcry. The bubble could have been easily damped by mortgage regulators ... but they dropped the ball. This was outside the FRB's mandate.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    So you admit that Greenspan artificially lowered rates. He lowered them and then raised them at the wrong time. He also said for people to take out ARM's right before he raised them. For this, he was knighted.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    "then raised them at the wrong time" huh?

     

    I've advised my clients to get ARMs virtually every year since 1985. 99% of 'em are ahead of anyone who locked in for 5yr or 10yr terms. There's lotsa white papers illustrating this.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Freddy, look at the rates from 2001 (1% to 2%) to the bubble popping in 2006/2007/2008 when the 5 year ARMs reset (at the higher rate). On average they paid 1% more for the new ARM in 2006/2007 and 1.5% more for those in 2008.

     

    Greenspan raised rates and those who had bought during those years had to come up with more money to pay their mortgages, and couldn't. Of the one's who took ARM's, a higher percentage took 5 year because the payment was lower. Greenspan and the Fed interest rate policy caused this. "Wrong time!" Has it worked for other since then? Yes, at different times. But this segment who couldn't pay the higher fees helped escalate the crash. There's more to the crash than this segment though. Loaning to anyone with a pulse, Congress allowing banks to fractionally reserve lend more than the 9:1 average. Bank of America buying Countrywide helped, but hurt them.

     

    Naturally you see things differently, but I think we can agree that it's not just one issue that caused the crisis.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps it's also a geographic perception. Here in Canada, ARMs recalculate monthly ... not every five years. On some, the monthly payment changes annually to reflect this. On others, an adjustment to the principal is issued. In any case, the rate is usually 2% less than five year term mortgages. Borrowers here can secure three month, six month, 1yr, 2yr, 3yr, 4yr or 5yr mtgs with the option of fixed (term) or floating (ARM) rates.

     

    You seem to be describing what we call a 5yr term mtg. This is also very popular and the payment and rate and opportunity to change lenders are locked for five years. That being the case, I can see why you feel higher rates in 2006/2007/2008 of mtgs drawn in 2001/2002/2003 were problematic.

     

    This would coincide well with my TRI model's conclusion the USA entered a Structural Greater Depression in Nov/2006. Layered over this is the effect of ever-rising petroleum prices. TRI gauges this headwind to GDP was -0.3% at that juncture and the factor rocketed to -1.6% by June 2008.

     

    In short, I agree the Great Recession was a perfect storm of circumstances ... but I put alotta weight on its severity on rising gas/oil prices and the overall burden of housing rent/mortgage payments. The Realty Bubbles Monitor gauges home prices were 52% ($75k) overpriced at the peak in 2005. Those renewing mtgs were inconsequential in the overall scheme.

     

    Realty Bubbles Monitor's USA chart: http://bit.ly/YuEK18
    28 Jun 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Freddy,

     

    Answer me this if you can. Where do you see issues in Canada re: housing and banking?

     

    Also, because Canada is so connected to the U.S. from a trade perspective, will the U.S., should we have a more severe banking crisis, cause those in Canada to crash too. I realize your home loan system is different than ours, but just want to get your opinion. Thanks.
    29 Jun 2013, 04:58 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    From two decades of underwriting I can tell ya the banking and mtg sectors are solid. Anyone choosing a shorter term or ARM mtg due its lesser interest rate still needs to qualify at the five-yr term. Failures of banks, trustco's & credit unions are quite rare and as in the USA, the regulators have usually arranged/sanctioned takeovers by the time of announcements.

     

    Prudence must be maintained and the Bank of Canada is shoring up capital requirements despite the fact all qualified for Basel-3 some time ago. Canada never completed its housing bubble correction. This is why Canada was last in and first out during the Great Recession. Canadians still had the opportunity of the house ATM. Neither the Gov't nor CMHC made attempts to quash the bubble at that critical juncture. I should also point out that our mtg's require personal covenant. Walk away and your wages get garnisheed...

     

    The avg Canadian home is more than double its American equivalent today. At this time it appears the realty bubble peaked in 2011 @ 35% ($94k) above the price/income ratio trend. Today the bubble is still 28% ($80k) above trend and the correction is mimicking the 1989 scenario (prices dropped only 6% and went sideways for ten years). On the present trajectory, I don't expect new highs 'til 2022.

     

    That said, should Canada see a 25% plunge in prices as the USA experienced, the Bank of Canada & CMHC say stress tests reveal the banking sector can with stand such a shock. High ratio mortgages (>80% L/V ratio) must be insured in Canada.
    29 Jun 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Trader Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    F&G I totally agree with Doug, each of us have our own opinions, the important thing is how it all plays out at the end.
    29 Jun 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3524) | Send Message
     
    @ Freddy Hutter

     

    You wrote : " That said, should Canada see a 25% plunge in prices as the USA experienced, the Bank of Canada & CMHC say stress tests reveal the banking sector can with stand such a shock. High ratio mortgages (>80% L/V ratio) must be insured in Canada."

     

    How is that different than the U.S. ? Isn't that the same as PMI ? The AIG debacle was insuring subprime mortgages wasn't it? I love to watch some of the Real Estate shows on HGTV ,but they are in Canada many times. I can't believe how expensive those homes are.
    Any insights?
    29 Jun 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Freddy. Appreciate the insight. My understanding is Canadians get it when it comes to banking and housing. Care to elaborate on the health care situation there? We Americans have our opinions, but would like to know your's and those you know's experience.

     

    I am aware of some who have the money, simply cross the border here and get taken care of quicker.

     

    TIA
    29 Jun 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRADER

     

    Welcome here. I hope you continue commenting on whatever your thoughts are !!
    29 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    CK, most of the mtg insurance is held by CMHC (canada mortgage housing corp) which is a 50-yr old crown corp, so the Gov't must backstop any CMHC losses greater than their reserves. The first 75% of mtg is not subject to loss claims. The stress tests are updated half-yearly. There are virtually no sub primes up here. Only a small percentage of mortgagors can mail in keys, but some will declare bankruptcy to avoid garnishee.
    29 Jun 2013, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Doug, I don't know anyone who gone to States in that fashion. Have seen some stats ... not a big number. Admittedly some do go to Caribbean or Central American or India for dental care. Our Provincial health plans don't cover dental or eyeglasses.

     

    I also don't know anyone paying more than $300/month for basic Provincial health care. Optional deluxe add-ons (dental, eyecare, prescriptions, etc etc) can cost $350/month.

     

    Here in the Yukon there are no health premiums or Prov/territorial sales tax. In most Provinces the premiums are linked to income with anyone making less than $20k/yr totally subsidized. I've tried several times to get data on how much Provincial Govt's share of health care is per capita but no success.
    29 Jun 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Freddy...

     

    Last question, what percentage of your income, if not in the subsidized group, goes towards health care. Is is set at a maximum like Medicare payments are here in the states?

     

    TIA
    30 Jun 2013, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    We have flat fees and here are a couple of examples at highest income category:

     

    Ontario: $75/month & BC: $67/month single; $133/month family plan.
    30 Jun 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Just Googled what you pay in taxes. Little better than Europe, that's for sure. Something's not right there, but thanks.I might have to promote Canada's system more in my next book. Just have to do more research on what others say. I have met people from Alberta, and they are down here spending money like mad. Also, many from Canada come to the Palm Desert/Rancho Mirage area where my parents live for the winter months.

     

    Cheers! eh!
    30 Jun 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Just remember this is for Provincial universal health care. Private supplemental group plans to secure deluxe dental, eyecare & prescriptions coverage can add up to $400/month to the tally.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Showing my age again , only one that i know of is Johnny Unitas
    27 Jun 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BINGO !!! your a winner !

     

    My choice as well. Let's see if the young ones have anyone better to offer.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    Experienced investors - on a different topic!

     

    Have you tried any Trading Software or Trade Setup Advising websites? Mostly they look like get rich schemes to me. I'm curious if any were helpful? Noticeably unhelpful? Just plan funny stories to tell?

     

    Maybe some run the chart indicators well, or do good research.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Most are ploys to kill your wallet....
    28 Jun 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @ CG

     

    That's what I figure.

     

    That's why I'm curious if anyone's tried any... and learned the hard way or knows someone who has. (It's easier to ignore, once you know of other's experiences.)

     

    Or found anything that -was- helpful.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Curls ,

     

    agree with Common Guy ,,I haven't heard of anyone that uses these "tools" with any overwhelming success ..

     

    Guess its best to say there is no magic formula.. freestockcharts.com offers a nice way to get started in charting and tech analysis. best of all its "free" :)

     

    Simple way to learn,, start using any chart system u wish,, when u run across a term or situation that is confusing ,, Google it , amazed to see how much info is really out there .. Also, u will find many 10-15 minute clips out on youtube explaining different chart techniques.. .. Great way to start..

     

    also if u are using an online broker - i..e Ameritrade, e trade , they provide many sophisticated charting & trading tools..
    Good Luck
    28 Jun 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    On Trading Software - seems a shame to do by hand what can be by computer.

     

    The chart drawing & scouring for indicators should be very automate-able.

     

    That's what gives me the idea that some sites could add value. Being the programmer that I am.

     

    @ FG
    Thanks for the chart site. And ideas of what to google for. I just need time now to take it all in!
    28 Jun 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 12:00 AM Friday's economic calendar:
    9:45 Chicago PMI
    9:55 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment

     

    Remember Reuters releases this report TWO MINUTES prior to their subscribers !!
    28 Jun 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Student loan rates due to increase ... http://reut.rs/13dkM2U

     

    Is the can going to get kicked down the road?
    28 Jun 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4
    That's going to have a big effect. Wonder if school costs will come down, when less are able to attend (supply/demand)? And how it will effect US's future competitiveness.

     

    For now it will effect economy at least a small bit since those with kids going to college, will be even more conservative with money.
    30 Jun 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    My guess is they will eventually pass something and backdate it . No way these kids will be paying that high of an interest imo..
    30 Jun 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    President Obama made his speech about his intention to move the US to "clean energy" on Wednesday. Whether you like him and his policies or not it will have an effect on companies and in turn your investment in those companies because there are some things he can do via the EPA that do not need congress's approval. So again the USG will be picking winners and losers as this agenda get implemented.

     

    Because I invest long term I am always looking for changes/trends to take place in the near future (3-5 years timeline). So I found this article interesting in light of the above:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Jun 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    (MUX) is in the green today. What's with that? After in the red no matter what else was happening for weeks now.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    curls
    (mux) must be a temperamental stock
    28 Jun 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Christopher F. Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (1324) | Send Message
     
    Getting a bit of a bounce after questioning if gold and silver are as worthless as the central banks would have us believe

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Great quote in the article, well researched. Have a look. Probably a good time to add. I havent added any since $23/oz and $1300/oz
    28 Jun 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Hi Christopher, read your article this morning and was a very interesting opening you chose, haha... Just wrote my bullish article yesterday (not for SA) and wish I would have waited 2 more days because of the volatility that quarterly options expiration brings. At least I made an addendum to the article yesterday around noon before the smack down of after hours and this morning.

     

    I finally dipped into USLV this morning with less than half shares for my allocation. Nice recovery off the lows so far. Selfishly I want to see some further lows, but not sure it will come.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Dipped into NUGT too.

     

    Both of these I won't sell for a long time.
    28 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1764) | Send Message
     
    Huldra Silver, which is widely considered one of the top silver junior producers just put their mine on care and maintenance. A lot of mine supply will be coming offline quickly over the next few quarters if we go any lower.
    28 Jun 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Welcome Jason ... We need another voice of someone very knowledgeable of the PM sector.

     

    Have we seen the bottom?
    28 Jun 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @JASON

     

    Glad you took up my invitation to stop by. WELCOME !!
    28 Jun 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    Just as some background before I post these articles. I am 56 years old. Most men in my family don't live to see 70. So just based on genetics my current time horizon is 14 years to accomplish what I want to get accomplished as far as "investing". My only goal is to produce an annual income for my wife, that is not dependent on government sources, to replace my military retirement, VA disability and eventual social security annual payments. So roughly about 30K a year. With this criteria some investments are automatically eliminated such as physical metals, bonds, etc. After researching all the possible investment possibilities, dividend income from companies with a solid future for the next 30 years best fit my needs and situation. The articles below represent the best investment strategies for that scenario. Just in case there are others that may be in the same situation and want to cut down on the research time:

     

    1) Background for the two strategies:
    Maximizing Income: High Dividend Vs. High Dividend Growth
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    2) Retirement Portfolio For Maximum Income Growth
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    3) Retirement Income: Portfolio Design For Maximum Current Income
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Just to give you an idea of my long term plan. I will invest in growth companies as long as my health holds up. Once there is any indication of failing health I will began transitioning the portfolio to income focussed companies and removing them from my tax sheltered account to stock certificates to be placed in an safety deposit box, and paying the resulting taxes. So all she has to worry about is collecting the checks and paying the taxes.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    Thank you! Definitely nice to save time & borrow. I'll add it to my short-list of things to read for my investing education.
    28 Jun 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    I ditto CURLS remarks. I appreciate the homework !

     

    I was out almost all afternoon and I have to add that whomever isn't following us is missing out on a TON of material and educational posts.

     

    Catching up isn't easy as I try to read each post and I do save all the Chapters to see where we evolve to along the path of trying to make money !!

     

    Thanks to all that stick around and post. I have tried to invite others by posting in articles, even PM people who post in other articles as well.

     

    But hopefully more will come aboard and post as I am sure other ideas will open up other discussions. We had a great two chapters on gold and silver and I am sure another topic will come up shortly as well.

     

    Great to see everyone being respectful to others opinions. We all do not need to agree, and surely we don't, but our goal is to learn and profit from one another!

     

    I think we have accomplished that with people willing to post their investments and others following doing the same as well. I am not a day trader, but I appreciate following and learning what makes a person tick..
    28 Jun 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    I find it to be interesting times indeed. I saw IAMGOLD (IAG) shoot up 7% yesterday and went searching for something that would explain why??? I didn't find anything, but, ran across this article by Hebba that basically showed that (http://bit.ly/18kIoos) had changed their accounting procedures and it was costing more to get the gold out of the ground than the current spot price:
    http://bit.ly/18kIoot

     

    Today (http://bit.ly/18kIoos) is up another 6%???? Anyone in the know???

     

    PS- I don't own it, and have no intention of buying it. I just like good stories...:o)
    28 Jun 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @Notrub

     

    Apparently gold mining stocks are up recently. I haven't a clue why.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    an article about hyperinflation as we discussed in a previous chapter:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Jun 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    Chuck Carnevale's 3rd article in in his series on finding value stocks in today's markets:

     

    http://bit.ly/124H7th
    28 Jun 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    All

     

    I am reading the book World Right Side Up (Investing across six continents) by Christopher Mayer and I recommend it to people who are looking for stocks and specific areas to invest; Mayer presents and discusses the case for each stocks with pros and cons
    28 Jun 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    On derivatives:

     

    http://nyti.ms/16F306Q
    28 Jun 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    Anybody following (WPRT)?
    28 Jun 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin

     

    What are you seeing with (WPRT)?

     

    It's taken off soaring since 26th. What was the trigger? @Krusty's ears must be perking up, since he's long on natural gas! It does seem for longer plays it will take a year or two before a climb happens.

     

    @ Notrub

     

    That derivative stuff is something else. Wonder if Southerngent or Fear &Greed or anyone has opinions from over time on them.

     

    If gives an idea of things to watch out for when researching stocks.

     

    Do you like any of Chuck Carnevale's selections? His ideas are good, but take a while to get through.
    30 Jun 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Curls.
    I don't follow (WPRT) , other than to know their "clean fuel" engine initiatives. Its one of those "story" stocks that seem to move with headlines surrounding nat gas , oil, etc. No earnings so i can't follow as a value situation.. Now it comes down to technicals..
    Just my .02

     

    IMO , Chuck Carnevale is one of the best here, if you are looking at the definition of div growth and value investing look no further..
    Read his articles, take notes, set entry points , and over time you will not be disappointed..
    30 Jun 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    curls

     

    Last week Obama gave speech on climate and took off
    1 Jul 2013, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3524) | Send Message
     
    " Last week Obama gave speech on climate and took off "

     

    We were 20 degrees below the high for June 30 Obama couldn't stick his finger in his.........with a stick of butter .
    1 Jul 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    The (DISH) is up another 2% today I wonder what charlie has up his sleeve.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    Brackets, brackets, makes life so much easier!!

     

    @IT where's your moderating self to get on everyone's case on this :). Kidding, but it would help if folks but stock symbols in quotes. Then when you mouseover, the company's name appears. Very helpful.

     

    @BD4
    Now (DISH) is up 3%. Do have to wonder what's happening?
    28 Jun 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Charlie is on the hunt.
    28 Jun 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Ever click on a symbol with brackets? Just asking as you do get more info !!

     

    Now as far as getting on everyone have you noticed I stopped asking for everyone to hit the LIKE button. I GAVE UP!!
    28 Jun 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    This is interesting speculation on a Dish/ Direct TV merger.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Jun 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I got a haircut today ( a real one). Did you ever notice that they actually add grey when they cut it?

     

    At least that is what I think.. But what do you know with shoulder length hair. Get it cut annually??
    28 Jun 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    The unruly emancipated look gives me an edge with the street people who ride the bus. I really don't have a set schedule.

     

    I got a figurative haircut earlier in the week but seems to be tracking nicely today. What's up with the last hour? I see the Fed is dancing around the taper no taper issue again. Kind of reminds me of the European crisis about the greek situation, will they or won't they for months. Seems when the press finds a hot button they like to use it.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I hate when someone keeps driving a point home... Usually means trouble. Another FED speaks today.. How many do we actually have ??

     

    BTW . Where is Snowden and Corzine ??
    28 Jun 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Your not implying obfuscation? They seem to realize that the only thing going in the economy right now is the market. If they lose that then the bright lights shine on the dreaded fiscal situation.

     

    Tell me is it still legal the inside trade for congressmen? No doubt some of that valuable information gets trickled down to staff. Ah to be a servant of the public.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @BD4

     

    I was wondering if the Fed said something that triggered that sell off. What / who spoke where? I missed it in the news.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain and watch me as I pull a rabbit out of my hat....

     

    http://bit.ly/125jSPW
    28 Jun 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    No Fed talk, probably Funds locking up profits at the end of the Quarter , but the gold and silver buying is interesting on the last day for sure..

     

    I know some will call it a bounce so we shall see.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    I called it right but didn't get into (NDLS). Up 22% since it's $32 opening.

     

    I'm thinking, I'll wait till a down day in general when this too comes down, & get in & wait for a small rise on a later day.

     

    Question for experienced folks:

     

    The IPO was supposed to start at $18 (up from original $14-16). It appears at 11am it was offered with $32 as start price using my broker's chart. Would there have been a lower entrance that I missed, an earlier release? How did it get to $32 on release?
    28 Jun 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    Last 1/2 hour of market is lot of sell off. A lot of profit taking?? Any ideas?

     

    Or did I miss a Fed announcement?
    28 Jun 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Curls,,

     

    no fed , but u missed russell rebalance --- sounds like a good excuse as any for last minute weakness.. :)
    28 Jun 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    Could it be last minute window dressing for the quarter? That would be my guess..
    28 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Possibly , but i cited the Russell rebalance as maybe the culprit..?? or maybe traders decide to close up shop early and head for beach :)

     

    First day of new quarter may be interestng ...
    28 Jun 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    Ooooh. Yep, that would make sense out of it.

     

    A few individual stocks moved down rapidly too. A couple I can be sure was profit taking (NDLS) IPO, (MUX). Others like (GM) maybe part of the rebalance.
    28 Jun 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    Dennis Gartman says sell gold, no wait, he says buy gold, no wait...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Jun 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    As an aside, I saw Gartman speak live at an LPL conference in Chicago. He readily admits he is wrong 80% of the time.
    28 Jun 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Doug ,

     

    now there is really something we can agree on--- Gartman doing his "waffle" dance

     

    :)
    28 Jun 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (3019) | Send Message
     
    and getting paid $5,000 per person annually for being wrong 80% of the time. Nice gig if you can get it!
    28 Jun 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DOUG

     

    Which means he is probably wrong 90% of the time. Were back to rounding ! 89.9% is 80% to some I know !!
    28 Jun 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    The last hour took the bloom off the rose for many holdings but my penny's seemed to move upward along with the PM's.
    28 Jun 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "It's still too early to reduce asset purchases, says San Francisco Fed chief Williams. More evidence is needed of the recovery's momentum and that the drop in inflation is a temporary one. His personal forecast is for unemployment to still be over 7% at year's end and for inflation to remain well under 2% into 2015."

     

    Thinking outside the box here.. WHY do they still drag these guys out for their opinions daily?

     

    They must have an agenda for sure!! The more they say the most I distrust them..imo
    28 Jun 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    "What we have here is a failure to communicate." It's not that they are saying it wrong it's just that we are listening wrong.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1069) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    It is an informal job interview to replace BB
    28 Jun 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4387) | Send Message
     
    That makes no sense. He's pushing a lack of tapering... but the market went down. That consistently has made it go up.

     

    What's different this time?

     

    Also, are earnings so far supporting more bull, or a bit lacking?
    28 Jun 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5358) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    earnings are the key question now as we go forward,, as they come in July reports may suggest further weakness ... so far from some early predictions i saw , no one seems to think they will impress. always tough to gauge .

     

    Not a shocker here , i believe banks will report well, then company specific , probably a mixed bag.....
    28 Jun 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @F&G, DOUG, TACK, and all...

     

    Can you update us when the Earnings come out and your take on them?

     

    Got a PM from someone who would like opinions.

     

    Thanks!
    28 Jun 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    So far it has been a mixed bag this week. The headliner was Blackberry's losses yesterday after the bell.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Blackberry sold off big today. The stocktalk board was full of sob stories. What could be next??? Apple ... Tesla?
    28 Jun 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    This is an interesting article on the shadow banking system in China.

     

    http://bit.ly/125lqt0

     

    After reading it I sounds like they did the same as O did with shovel ready projects going to local governments. Don't the WMV's sound similar to BDC's?

     

    Da Shadow knows...

     

    Here's another take on it.

     

    http://n.pr/153Rnr2
    28 Jun 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    I have a meaningless question. I don't have cable TV although I have in the past. Financial news on broadcast TV is telling the DOW 30 number and that is about it. The local PBS has run Nightly Business Report for years and I watch it sporadically depending on schedule. Recently I noticed that CNBC has taken over the production of it. They have been parading the whole cast of characters from at least the 1990's. Anybody watch it and have any opinions or am I the only one watching free TV?
    28 Jun 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    Do you still have rabbit ears on your TV?? Showing my age again!
    28 Jun 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    The media is consumed with ratings. This adds to revenues, which in turn adds to ability to give real good contracts to on-air personalities ... who are mostly ex models, sportscasters or lawyers - not economists.

     

    By bringing in celebrities from the past, viewers are usually exposed to ideologues who have very very outrageous positions. The purpose is simple: to create volatility and to make you angry. The former is great for traders; the latter gets you to phone, fax, email and/or tweet while throwing stuff at the screen...
    28 Jun 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
     
    Yup Rabbit ears but with the digital signal I don't need tin foil anymore... Showing my age. It's all crap on TV so why should I pay for it?
    28 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I have Direct TV, have 500 channels but maybe watch 15 at the most. Tin foil brought a tear to my eye. Remember when you were told to just stand still and not move holding those ears. Like we were actually adding strength to the signal. Were we??

     

    Got Direct TV for football season actually. A huge fantasy player. I always bargain with them to get lower rates as they always screw something up with the equipment. In fact that reminds me, I cannot connect to the internet though them now. Gotta call them on Monday, complain, then ask for customer retention..

     

    You say retention? Yup they are passed customer service when you threaten to drop them. Those folks then throw out the freebies. But I never heard of customer retention ever before !!

     

    Times are changing!!
    28 Jun 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11546) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    MOVING ALONG WEEKEND WARRIORS !!!

     

    Trivia posted in Chapter 20 >>>>
    28 Jun 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
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