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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 20......... 163 comments
    Jun 28, 2013 8:58 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Post away !! Lurkers please join in as well...

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Comments (163)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, who wants to open up?

     

    I will....How will the earnings reports do this week. Good , Bad, or ugly?

     

    Famous #20 ???
    28 Jun 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2736) | Send Message
     
    #20 Detroit Lions Lem Barney,Billy Sims,and Barry Sanders all #20
    29 Jun 2013, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12725) | Send Message
     
    Frank Robinson
    29 Jun 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @Humm...I was thinking Sanders but Robinson might be the better choice. Barry left too soon??
    29 Jun 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Gold may be going down on paper, but the physical market is still in high demand. Just ask Rick Harrison, co-owner of the Gold & Silver Pawn Shop and a co-star of the reality series "Pawn Stars." "I'm having a real difficult time right now getting physical metal," Harrison says. "It's the crazy world of gold and silver: Sometimes the paper market is going down but you can't find actual physical items."

     

    Hummm.....
    28 Jun 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it's because smart people don't sell their metal to a pawn shop? I have many Dentist clients who get scrap metal all the time. The California Dental Association show I did in San Francisco last year had 3 scrap metal companies with booths there paying 90%.

     

    Just a thought.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Really.
    Who in the world sells their gold to a pawn dealer?
    Someone desperate I suppose.

     

    Doug, I have heard from another dealer that for their business buyers of physical PM's still are way ahead of sellers, some days by as much as 10-1.
    I am curious what you see in your business, do the sellers outnumber the buyers?

     

    In the case of gold and silver I don't care what the charts say, I think they are a unique asset class and that within the next 5 years that $1900'ish high in gold will be taken out. Many people make the mistake of selling at or near the lows out of fear.

     

    The rosy, supposedly improving economic picture painted by TPTB is an illusion. They HAVE to say and show through the manipulation of the numbers that things are getting better.
    What else can they say?
    They can't say things are getting worse, they can't say that inflation is 10% (or whatever it really is) or that unemployment is closer to 20% than 10%. They can't say they don't know what they are doing and that they really can't identify problems in advance and stop them from occurring.

     

    Their main objective is to stay in power and convince the masses they know what's best for everyone and to shape events to their liking. We are all on the Titanic heading towards the iceberg.

     

    Am I happy about this? No.
    Do I want this to happen? No.
    I am a business owner, I want the economy to do well, for people to find jobs and get wage increases so my business will do well so I can do well.
    I just want the statists to leave us alone so we can all either succeed or fail based on our own efforts and not be dependent upon others to choose the winners.

     

    Gold and silver aren't dead and if my allocation wasn't already filled from buying them since 1999 I would certainly buy more now.
    29 Jun 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    tampat, I have had only two people sell in the past, of which only one was one of my clients who was buying real estate and was profitable at the time. The other was someone else who bought elsewhere who had a tax problem.

     

    But I wanted to take it a step further and actually called my suppliers to ask that same question back in April with the carnage. Their answers were all the same; no one selling.

     

    I too want the economy to improve. The data I read tells me to insure against the high probability of the economy improving being an illusion, a word you used and also part of the title of my next book, Illusions of Wealth.

     

    29 Jun 2013, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Central banks sold a record $32.4B in U.S. Treasurys (SHY) in the week to June 26 - taking their holdings to $2.93T - for the third weekly outflow in the past four weeks. Meanwhile, bond funds tracked by data provider EPFR Global experienced total redemptions of $23.3B last week. The numbers provide some color to the sharp rise in Treasury yields since Ben Bernanke first signaled the Fed would start tapering QE. "

     

    Ok, any words on this folks????
    30 Jun 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    It's a good summary supported by numbers. Bond sell off was from anticipation that Fed would taper bond-buying, so eventually rates would go up, so better to get out now.

     

    So various central banks sold their US bonds, as did bond fund investors.

     

    Bonds are no longer acting as bonds traditionally do... and not with the slowness of change they usually exhibit.
    1 Jul 2013, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ Triffle

     

    From your post in Chapter 18 about straddling...

     

    So hint, hint, you're figuring Apple will move (one way or the other)? You had other concepts with straddling from you experiences? This is interesting stuff.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    This one should get your motor running.

     

    http://read.bi/113RN1p

     

    Good night all
    28 Jun 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    "The absence of significant inflation in the past few years does not mean that it won’t rise in the future. When businesses and households eventually increase their demand for loans, commercial banks that have adequate capital can meet that demand with new lending without running into the limits that might otherwise result from inadequate reserves. The resulting growth of spending by businesses and households might be welcome at first, but it could soon become a source of unwanted inflation."

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/1anz2ci
    28 Jun 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    He never did say what the interest rate was for holding bank reserves. I wonder if it is competitive and what happens if banks can get a better rate somewhere else?
    29 Jun 2013, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    bd4uandu - we must also remember that inflation can also arrive via disruption in the supply chain. And that can come from lots of different sources.
    30 Jun 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm didn't that kick off the great inflation of the 70's. The oil embargo. Any speculation on what the new disruption could be? Maybe a Carbon tax or restrictive regulation? Some kind of a environmental crisis?
    30 Jun 2013, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    You are a great source of information. Would you mind posting some places where you look in the READING chapter?

     

    Thanks!
    30 Jun 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    Sure - primary source = tea leaves.
    1 Jul 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I just peed in my pants. Gotta go change ..
    28 Jun 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Central banks sell record amounts of US debt.... http://on.ft.com/1cyxRDv
    29 Jun 2013, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good morning.. Article ask for a free trial or subscribe..
    29 Jun 2013, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Sorry ... Central banks sell record amounts of US debt.... http://bit.ly/1aWsbFA
    29 Jun 2013, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    "16% of domestic silver production was destroyed with the Kennecott Mine collapse in April. The US produces about 40 million ounces a year total in domestic mine production. 5 million of that came from the Kennecott Mine in Utah and that is now buried under 165 million tons of rock. So since the US Mint must only use domestic mine production for the Eagle program, we will use every ounce we produce just for these coins. Forget about the thousands of uses for industrial silver, and now there is a huge gash in the American Silver productive capacity."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 Jun 2013, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Everyone:

     

    Another interesting clean energy ETF: (QCLN)

     

    http://bit.ly/1159aPh

     

    A pull back around $12 would be fantastic.

     

    What a bull we have in the clean energy area...whew! :-)

     

    Krustyman
    29 Jun 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    I noticed in a prior chapter a discussion about averaging down. I routinely engage in what I call constructive averaging down.

     

    Destructive averaging down is something to avoid which generally will occur in two forms.

     

    First, the investor overpays for a good company, something like paying $55 for GE or $70 for Cisco back in 2000 and then proceeds to average down from those prices. Both the initial purchase price and the average down prices are divorced from a realistic valuation of the business.

     

    In the second form, the investor just picks a bad stock that will keep going lower and lower. By adding more shares on the way down the investor is simply increasing the losses.

     

    Both of these destructive forms of averaging down have as their origin a failure to properly value the stock.

     

    A constructive averaging down trading technique starts with a fact based assessment of a reasonable valuation range. I recognize that my first entry price may not be the best price.

     

    I will first decide my maximum dollar exposure. I will have one limit for Coca Cola and another for a regional bank stock like First Merit. That limitation will be based on a number of criteria including overall safety and reliability of earnings, current yield and dividend growth, current valuation, potential capital appreciation, etc.

     

    Once I have a limit, I will then make a decision whether or not to break the maximum dollar exposure into multiple orders or a single order. Frequently, I will look at a two and five year chart to make that decision along with my opinion about whether the market is range bound, or more likely to move up or down significantly.

     

    For First Merit, I placed a $3,000 limit on my exposure with my comfortable exposure range in the $1,500 to $2,500 range. There are a number of reasons for those ranges applicable to regional banks in general and to FMER in particular. Two major negatives for FMER involve the dividend: (1) the bank substantially cut its quarterly dividend rate during the recent Near Depression and (2) has not raised the rate since cutting it to $.16 back in 2009 4th quarter.

     

    Dividend History
    http://bit.ly/12bu62e

     

    I chopped my orders into pieces after establishing what I considered a reasonable valuation range for the stock.

     

    An integral part of this strategy is to sell the highest cost shares and to keep the lower cost ones long term. By selling the higher cost shares, I cut down my tax bite.

     

    For the past 52 weeks, FMER has traded between $12.95 to $20.48 and hit a new 52 week high last week. When I buy, I obviously do not know the future and whether the market will give me a better price by waiting. If I buy my full allocation at $17, I will miss the opportunity to take advantage of the natural volatility of a stock by buying at better prices. I also believe that $17 is within a reasonable valuation range and the price may never go appreciably lower.

     

    One reason for scaling into a position is a judgment that lower prices are probable.

     

    I am reinvesting the dividend to buy more shares which will also give me prices all over the place.

     

    FMER closed at $20.03 last Friday, and I currently own 141+ shares at an average cost of $14.52. I did not start out with shares purchased near that average cost number.

     

    This is what actually happened with my purchases and sells:

     

    Bought 50 at $16.96-Later Sold
    Added 50 at $16.18-Later Sold
    Bought 30 at $11.35
    Added 50 at $15.2
    Added 50 at $15.09

     

    In retrospect, this technique of constructive averaging down would have produced better results by purchasing more than 30 shares at $11.35. It has also worked better than buying a full position at $16.96.
    29 Jun 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ SG

     

    Thanks for the great description of how to average down! Goes in my log of good info to save.
    1 Jul 2013, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have invited a couple of people who have thoughts on commodities . I hope they post here.

     

    Go back to chapter 18 as Robert Wagner , who is an Author, has an opinion. I have asked him to post here as well. I am sure he covers quite a few areas so hopefully he will ask or answer some thoughts we pose.

     

    I have received a question via a PM....... Why did silver go up 7% on Friday, and Gold 3%. Was it because it was the end of the quarter and if so was it a bullish sign?

     

    Good question and am looking for responses. Additionally we also had a newbie in Chapter 18 that joined us as well. Maybe go back on that long thread at the bottom and take a peek?

     

    I know it's the weekend so we won't be as busy during the day, I will be checking in though.
    29 Jun 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IT; "Why did silver go up 7% on Friday and gold 3%? Was it because it was the end of the quarter and if so was it a bullish sign?"

     

    It was options expiration for the quarter which does bring volatility. Silver started Friday up 32 cents, then fell, then skyrocketed up. Gold started down, went further down, and then went up. I had noticed some strength in silver from the prior trading days compared to gold as well.

     

    For me, silver has the propensity to outperform gold in the near term based on two things. One is the gold/silver ratio was sitting at the 65:1 ratio which historically is high and now has fallen quickly to 62.83:1. I see this going back to 35:1 at some point.

     

    Secondly, as I wrote in my last article, "From gold and silver’s current prices, just to reach their 2011 highs again, it would be about a 55% return for gold but a 160% return for silver." Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver? http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ

     

    I am leading my clients into silver over gold which I mentioned in that article, but if one is very conservative, gold is the place to be.
    29 Jun 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I have my theory on why gold and silver went up Friday; I think it might have to do with the fact that troubles will be starting in Syria now that Russia has withdrawn its people from Tartus base
    29 Jun 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DOUG

     

    In my personal % of commodities I am way more heavy in physical silver then gold as well. I may be wrong but I felt with the industrial uses it may outpace gold for a while.

     

    I am not underwater on either, but may be overexposed to the metals . So I am considering selling some just to reallocate. I have a budget the boss allowed (wife) . So I have to stay within those boundries.

     

    But I am in agreement that silver might be the better play long term.
    29 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IMO, being overexposed to an asset that is beaten down, is better than the opposite. Not sure I would want to be overexposed to the DOW right now. But that's just me.
    29 Jun 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DOUG

     

    Tough call to make here. I read all the comments on this and we have so many different views..

     

    Glad you are hanging around for your input. Always can use Financial Advisors opinions for free!!

     

    You too FEAR... Don't leave us as some of your comments ground us and take the hysteria out of things...

     

    Besides, your good at Trivia!! lol You ole man. Next chapter I am gonna give you guys a tough one.
    29 Jun 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • indianamark
    , contributor
    Comments (2023) | Send Message
     
    Silver set what I think may be our low at $18.21 Fri.,6/28. Then it turned around and closed at $19.64. Gold made a new low at $1180.20 and closed on its high at $1223.80.This has happened maybe 2 or 3 times in the past 2 years.

     

    The C.O.T. Report was the real blockbuster. In silver the commercials are 20.5 million ounces net short, the smallest since Feb.2,1993,over 20 years ago.

     

    The gold shorts are down to 3.52 million ounces, smallest since Aug. 27,2002. The small commercials, Ted Butler's Raptors, hold their largest long position since Feb. 20,2001.

     

    I have been prematurely bullish during this last down turn but every thing seems to me to be super bullish. The C.O.T Report doesn't include the smash and fantastic volume from Wed. to Fri., but the turn Fri. may have been the bottom. Now maybe we can see silver in the $60 range that every one has been looking for.
    29 Jun 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    indianamark, I had 4 limit orders on USLV all the way down in the 4 to 5 range and finally bought just above 5. Bought NUGT too and want more. Really want more.

     

    But dont' forget the physical! haha...

     

    Thanks for the C.O.T. info.
    29 Jun 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @INDIANA

     

    Welcome, thanks for that C.O.T summary. That , to me is very telling for sure..

     

    Looking forward to more of your posts!
    29 Jun 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "The WSJ is the latest in a long line of news sources to report Apple (AAPL) is moving some app processor production to TSMC (TSM) from Samsung (SSNLF.PK). Like Digitimes recently, the WSJ reports TSMC will start mass-producing an Apple CPU that uses its next-gen 20nm process in early 2014. Other details: 1) Though Apple wants to be less dependent on Samsung, the company will still be Apple's main app processor foundry in 2014, and continues to supply memory chips and iPad LCDs (previous). 2) The move to TSMC has been slowed by "glitches" preventing TSMC's chips from meeting Apple's speed/power needs. 3) Apple offered to invest in TSMC or pay for dedicated capacity, but (in-line with a 2012 Bloomberg report) TSMC rejected the offers in the name of staying independent. ;

     

    Any APPLE lovers out there care to comment on this? Krusty?
    29 Jun 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    I invested in TSM on the rumors last year and earlier this year with mixed results. They had a nice run up recently but have returned to near previous levels of 17-18 dollars. They have been adding lots of equipment lately also. The stock makes some interesting runs up and down. Maybe in the 17 area for entry but it's kind of tied to Apple now and if Apple has a bad earnings report the stock might drop quickly. It might be worth a small stake for exposure but not for the faint of heart. Another thing about the stock dividends I believe are annually. I think in the fall.
    29 Jun 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    TSM also has facilities in the US Wafer Tech ....
    http://bit.ly/14EV5VJ
    I thought there was talk about further expansion in the US also.
    29 Jun 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Straggling (AAPL) - Trufflepig was talking about in Chapt 18.

     

    Hinting (AAPL)s a good candidate because it's either going to tank more or recover some.

     

    Any thoughts on where (AAPL)'s going?
    Or whether it still belongs in a solid portfolio?

     

    They did poorly before when Steve Jobs stepped down. Now he can't come back to rescue them. Still, Apple's products are so popular with the more tech savvy younger crowd, I can't imagine that they'll be down for long.

     

    ----
    From Trufflepig:

     

    " Sure - depends on the options premium. There are variations to this subject to where one puts a bit of bias in or caps the cost by caping the gains. The main thing is btw called a Straddle: http://bit.ly/1544CrH

     

    Usually works well with volatile stocks. Also, for a stock like GG that came down from $30 in <1 month (!!) to 22 20% in either direction doesn't seem to be that much. When you follow stocks over the course of one year, most do make much bigger moves up or down. Just an example: AAPL. You would be rich if you would have straddled at $700 without much risk! Or 600, or 500. Hint."
    29 Jun 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Hi curls,

     

    It's actually called straddling, or a stradle; http://bit.ly/17uysGa

     

    I have followed the strategy a long time as a guy I used to work with made a killing doing it...till his wife took him to the cleaners.

     

    I have seen the strategy work well with Fed meeting announcements quite a few times (for gold). Optioins expiration we just had Friday was another good one (for gold).
    30 Jun 2013, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ Doug

     

    Funny typo, "straggling." I'd just made a 6 hour trip - I think it was how I felt :).

     

    So what kind of delta seemed to work well to at least not lose? ...I guess it's a matter of looking at what options are offered, & picking what seems appropriate for that stock or commodity.

     

    For Fed meeting, I wonder if gold was not on as many investor's minds as being hit with Fed announcements, so it was easier to pick up a good set of straddle options, than with the equities market?

     

    Thanks for the link - lot's of good stuff on there for me to read!
    30 Jun 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    When it comes to (AAPL) there are plenty of opinions out there,,
    Most come highly charged with emotion..

     

    I have "traded" (AAPL) , having 6-9 month positions from time to time.. I started somewhere in the $80 range sold mid 100's , then picked spots along the way but didn't have any involvement from low 400's to the highs. I was scared off when all were talking about 1,000 plus prices ..

     

    Like everyone else i watched it come down, and with all of the negatives that were and still are being talked about I got reinterested.

     

    The initiation of the div and now their stock buyback has added to my interest.

     

    I try to use charts to plot good entry points and I started to scale into a new position at these levels.

     

    I can write 3 paragraphs about margins , profits etc.. The simple fact is that AAPl is in the process of transformation form a GoGo growth situation, to a div. /more value oriented play. When Im asked about AAPL, i simply reply with the question , if you believe they can and will innovate ,then its time to get involved, If not ,, then stay away..

     

    I Personally believe they will innovate again, and can take the approx 3% yield and stock buyback program as potential support .in case i'm totally wrong .. Im not looking for 1,000 price here, just give me the 3% , with the ability to increase that div. over time and it will be just fine.. IF they do come back with the next big thing , then u will, have a nice situation.. So i've weighed the risk /reward at these levels and deemed them to be acceptable.. If/when I see a change , I will have to reassess..

     

    I also have the ability to conduct very unscientific surveys from time to time , just to take a contrarian approach on a stock or market in general,,

     

    I spoke with 5 or 6 clients this week about adding or initiating a position in AAPL , during this last week of price weakness.

     

    All replied they are "worried" about the prospects of AAPL , I never "push" a situation, (part of the investment equation is being comfortable.) so I Iet it go.. With that info , I then added another small piece to my holdings on friday morning @390 when the price hit a low of $388.

     

    For all of the traders out there, the RSI on AAPL is 14 --last 2 times we saw those levels there was a nice bounce ... No guarantee the same will happen but here is a situation where u put the odds on your side..

     

    Just some thoughts..
    30 Jun 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Nice comment Fear... Good points would you be a buyer going into earnings? I hope we will see some new products by fall and not just upgrades. Do you think Apple will be able to maintain the "Apple premium"?
    30 Jun 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12725) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    I make these comments, not as an Apple investor, but as an constant observer.

     

    The way I see it, in a few months time, we will have arrived at the two-year anniversary of Steve Jobs' passing, and during that entire interval Apple has introduced nary a single worthwhile new product or even meaningful upgrade. In the same time frame, Samsung has run rings around them. One must question Mr. Cook's leadership abilities, in my opinion.

     

    Now, no one could ever replace Steve Jobs, not at Apple or anywhere else. Notwithstanding, since Cook's takeover, Apple immediately embarked on internal strife and reorganization, decided that the road to prosperity was an inane patent war, increased discrimination in its apps store against those apps it considered contrary to its own ambitions, and completely failed to grasp the importance of larger smartphone screens. As stated above, while all this was transpiring, they created nothing significant to add value. Now, after lots of news, visibility, and discussion, Apple has mostly gone quiet, but it's hardly evident that that's a sign of some new industriousness.

     

    On a fundamental basis, Apple's products have lost their leading-edge qualities, almost entirely, and, consequently, they have no justification to enjoy any price premium, leading to higher margins. Margin erosion will continue -- in fact, accelerate -- unless they can regain some novelty, if for no other reason than Samsung's economies of scale will keep getting better, while Apple's get worse.

     

    In summary, one can talk about technical indicators, and maybe they suggest a bounce somewhere, but the fundamental picture does not look encouraging unless we see evidence of a renewed focus on and actual capability in the innovation side of the business.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    from a fundamental view your arguments are well founded. Loss of Steve Jobs, impact, new mgmn't , margins, etc. etc..

     

    For me i'm willing to see how that plays out , collect the Div. and possibly receive what i believe to be more increases down the road .

     

    As with all positions it is only one of many , and dont suggest to be overloaded here. I will reassess if it trades down to the 350 level (10% from here)...
    However for those with a trader mentality., i'll stick by my assessment of a bounce from here.. keeping mental stops $388 may have been a nice intraday low on friday ... we shall see.
    30 Jun 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Can you explain RSI and it's importance..

     

    Thanks!
    30 Jun 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I mentioned it in another chapter ,but can't find it,, anyway here is link to Wikipedia definition...
    http://bit.ly/17L96EJ

     

    Keeping it simple,, use an RSI of 30 or less as a short term oversold condition, I'll go further and use 20 or less to pick up entry points,, Conversely 70 or higher is a near term overbought indicator, where i might decide to lighten up or possibly sell calls... RSI is one tool that may indicate a short term trend reversal. I rarely look at the RSI on a core position unless i see other signs or red flags.

     

    AAPl may be a good example as shown in other comment, and for the "gold" people, i mentioned last week that the RSI for GLD touched 14 , indicating a short term bounce may be in the cards..

     

    Stock, commodity can remain oversold or overbought for a while,, BUT using the RSI correctly , it can slant the odds for a SHORT TERM reversal in your favor.. Always keep in mind that other factors contribute to the Long term trend whether it be AAPL or Gold, and make those decisions accordingly..

     

    Staying with Gold, RSI on GLD on 4/15 was 14 with price of gold at 1371 --- on 4/29 2 short weeks later - RSI was 35 Gold closed @ 1476...

     

    Hocus pocus, magic, silly numbers on a graph, each to his/ her own, whatever one decides , but for me i will pay attention to any tool that increase odds for success whether it be short term or LT., then decide if it applies to my personal investment situation..
    Most important , there is no "magic formula" , its hard work , & it should be , after all we are talking about making money here -- & nobody gives that away including the markets..
    30 Jun 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Ok, now where does one find the RSI number? On a chart, in an analysis?? Honestly this is new to me. I also do remember you posting this prior now..

     

    Just not sure if you answered where or how to find it !! Every bit of info that you guys post is another part of the puzzle one can use. It is helpful..

     

    Thanks..
    30 Jun 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    The easiest way is go to Yahoo http://yhoo.it/11So6in;c= . I mainly use the RSI when looking for an entry position. I bought ADM at 33.60 when it went below 20 last week. I use the 5 day chart when I am looking for an entry position since I have already done my DD before and and know it is a stock I want for the long term..
    30 Jun 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Not,,
    that is a great source , keeps it simple..
    if one wants to get a little more advanced as they learn, freestockcharts.com is one i recommend.. Its' free and i like the colors -- LOL
    30 Jun 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    If you don't know what entry point you want already I use the 1 year or longer RSI period to see it indicates the stock is over or undervalued. My personal experience is that if I bought the stock when it was at an RSI of 70 or over on the 1 year chart it dropped in price in the short term. If I bought when it was below 20 it usually rose in price in the short term.

     

    Hope that helps???
    30 Jun 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GUYS

     

    Yes that helps, I have no idea what RSI means but I do see how it can be used as a tool..

     

    What does RSI actually mean? If it was posted already sorry as I am in a ton of pain and may have missed it.

     

    Thanks.
    30 Jun 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    RSI=Relative Strength Indicator
    30 Jun 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    No problem,,

     

    "Relative Strength Index."
    30 Jun 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    As an example. I am currently looking at Freeport-McMoRan because copper prices have been so depressed. I like (FCX) balance sheet and dividend of 4.5%. So I have been using the 1 year chart with RSI to watch for an entry point http://yhoo.it/1asnViv;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    If you look at the chart it has hit 20 four times and bounced back up in the last year. So what I am looking for is the RSI to go decided below 20 to like 15 or less as a buy signal.
    30 Jun 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok , so now that makes sense as part of the process to pick a stock..I think people will learn something from that. I just wish those lurkers would post so that they could ask follow up questions.

     

    Hopefully in time they will get comfortable..

     

    Thanks for the example of part of your process in stalking a stock.
    30 Jun 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Here is another. I know all about the palladium story. This article PAL) and (http://bit.ly/Lj19ND). But, they got the stock pick dead wrong, as I discussed in another post in another chapter. Basically, PAL had to take out a 15% loan to keep operating and it's stock has plunged accordingly. If you go read the notes to their last filing you would know that they have come out and said they do not know if they will be able to pay it off unless they can 1)increase production, which is their goal from the loan proceeds. And 2) The price of palladium increases. Right now most are betting the company goes under, as they haven't expanded production to date and palladium price have been range bound.

     

    That leaves Stillwater (http://bit.ly/Lj19ND). Their books are in much better shape. They are only expanding production as cash becomes available. They have a palladium recycle business. But, their negative this year has been infighting on the board concerning the purchase of a copper mine in Argentina which led to the CEO and founder resigning.

     

    Again, as in the example for (http://bit.ly/quothf) I have been watching (http://bit.ly/Lj19ND). Here is the 1 year chart with RSI
    http://yhoo.it/118cXvf;range=1y;compare=;ind...
    It has also bounced off of 20 several times in the last year. I thought I might be looking at an entry point two weeks ago when the markets were down. But, it has bounced again. So I am still looking for that definitive move lower below 20.
    What would change my outlook of just waiting for a lower entry price would be their next filing report with something showing they have a buyer for the copper lands in Argentina, they has selected a replacement CEO with experience in the palladium business or an increase in production with a combined higher palladium price.
    30 Jun 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    I think you have mentioned you are new to picking stocks and other investment positions on your own. Can you share with the readers again what book/articles/or other readings that help educate you?

     

    Thanks!
    30 Jun 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Actually, just plain vanilla stock picking I am very familiar with. I am not familiar with all the new derivatives of that available today such as ETFs, ETNs, CEFs, BDCs, MLPs, REITs, etc. So I learn from reading places like your blog.

     

    For example, when Tack posted the two BDC ETNs I didn't know what ETNs were. So I started researching them and came up with this:
    http://bit.ly/19LfhMp
    http://bit.ly/19LfIX6

     

    I won't invest in either until I thoroughly understand what they are and the implications to my situation. Like, what does and doesn't fit for use in an IRA account. I am just now getting my head around CEFs from reading SGs posts and I am considering some small test investments to see ones which would give me a better option to park cash for a year or less. I read everything I can find and there is plenty out there just on the web to keep you busy for a lifetime once I identify something I don't know anything about. So I am learning from all your posts to identify my deficiencies.

     

    I was in Iraq from 2009-2011. So I missed most of the "great recession" and move up from there. My first inclination upon retiring was to play catch up. But, I know that is a losing game and will just play the hand dealt to me and get what the current market is willing to give.
    30 Jun 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Not,

     

    (FCX) is one that i presently own, it has been painful to watch recently., with purchases over time my cost is approx $32..

     

    You are correct in your assessment , right now in a double whammy fundamentally , copper & Gold , (ouch) They were also smashed because of their purchase of 2 oil companies in a deal that just finalized.

     

    The div. is nice as u mentioned and shareholders just rececived a special dividend of $1 per share that was distributed in June. so with my cost i'll get about 7% in div. this year.. There is plenty of controversy here,, however my take on the special div indicates mgmn'ts concern with shareholders interests and stability of balance sheet.

     

    I have no idea if copper is headed lower,, , they are a premier mining outfit,, and for all the detractors on the oil purchase, that added some diversity to their business. Not a bad thing ...
    30 Jun 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    F&G,
    I agree. I believe the place to look for stocks to purchase is in sectors that have been beat down. I like (FCX) books and I actually like the idea that they are becoming more diversified and don't have everything riding on mining. I just need to find a good entry point under the present conditions. With my 14 year window on holding a stock I think they fit what I am looking for. The only reason I am being picky about entry price is because (FCX) has been in a down trend since DEC 2010 of lower highs and lower lows.
    30 Jun 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: An ETN is an unsecured senior note and exposes you to the credit risk of the issuer. That is simply another layer of risk that I prefer to avoid whenever there is a suitable alternative. If Lehman had issued an ETN, the owner would be in the same boat as every other Lehman senior unsecured note holder, possibly receiving about 20 cents or so on the dollar in a BK.

     

    I have decided to go mostly with ETNs over ETFs only in the MLP sector due to a peculiar legal issue that requires an ETF to organize as a regular "C" corporation when it has a greater than 25% weighting in MLPs.

     

    The Investment Company Act of 1940 requires that no more than 25% of an open-end fund's assets can be invested in MLPs. That is the reason why those concentrated MLP ETFs have to form the "C" corporations, since those funds exceed that 25% limitation.

     

    Unfortunately, organizing as a "C" corporation has negative effects on the shareholder and will cause the fund to significantly underperform the index benchmark. A MLP ETF is required to pay taxes on the taxable distributions paid by the MLPs as well as any gains from securities sales. Those "C" corporations will consequently estimate the amount of that tax liability and keep those funds. In effect, this creates a double taxation issue and will cause this type of fund to underperform the index.

     

    See Morningstar Article:
    http://bit.ly/17wK23C

     

    And, for one MLP sector involving natural gas infrastructure, the purest play was an ETN MLPG which is an unsecured senior note issued by UBS. I bought only 50 shares as a play on what I envision to be a 20 to 30 year natural gas super cycle:

     

    Item 4. Bought 50 MLPG at $31.26-ROTH IRA
    http://bit.ly/Wsdqkj

     

    There is one ETF which I own that keeps the MLP weighting below 25% and consequently can avoid the adverse tax issues associated with the "C" corporation structure.

     

    MDIV:
    Sponsor's webpage:
    http://bit.ly/W6yJZ5

     

    I own 200 shares of that one with the last discussion in this post:

     

    2. Sold 100 MLPA at $15.31 and Bought 100 MDIV at $20.4 Last Wednesday-Roth IRA
    http://bit.ly/17wK0Zi

     

    That fund has been hurt recently by its exposure to Mortgage REITs. The fund will generally keep a 20% weighting in REITs, both the equity and mortgage REITs as one of its five buckets.

     

    See Holdings:
    http://bit.ly/17wK2jS
    30 Jun 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    I think if you are looking for "significant" upside, one should have a core position in NUGT - for me, that would be say 1,000 shares. The downside risk in total $ is relatively small, but the upside is potentially 10 - 15X.
    30 Jun 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 12:00 AM Monday's economic calendar:
    9:00 PMI Manufacturing Index
    10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
    10:00 Construction Spending Comment!

     

    Any importance to these reports tomorrow/today ??
    1 Jul 2013, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    So much in here today to learn from!

     

    F&G & Tack - thank you for the detailed great analysis. Lots to learn from beyond on (AAPL).

     

    Fear: "AAPl is in the process of transformation form a GoGo growth situation, to a div. /more value oriented play"
    Very astute observation - way to summarize.

     

    Tack: " since Cook's takeover, Apple immediately embarked on internal strife and reorganization, decided that the road to prosperity was an inane patent war" etc.
    Great summary of so much that's going on.

     

    Not sure how I'll play this, but gives lots of ways to sort through it!
    1 Jul 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2736) | Send Message
     
    (USLV) (NUGT)
    29 Jun 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @COINS

     

    Thanks for the brackets !!
    29 Jun 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Earnings season kicks off next week 7/8 ,,(AA) starts off the parade, but we really don't get into the "meat" until 15th...
    29 Jun 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Gut reaction a mixed bag??
    29 Jun 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Yep, I do believe Banks can show upbeat reports again,, other than that mixed bag ,
    29 Jun 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ F&G & IT

     

    I'm looking forward to the play by play & overviews of how this plays out.

     

    Hopefully I'll be better at this than sports. I tend to stand on the court & have no idea what the score is, even when my team is winning. Tracking earnings feels the same to me...
    29 Jun 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Trust me half of us feel the same way come earnings time.. I am learning as well if it is important or not. If the majority of the reports are bad then we might see a correction.imo

     

    FEAR AND TACK could answer this better then I can though.
    30 Jun 2013, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Given where the S & P is at the moment and where we have come from,, Speaking in generalities , (not so much in company specific terms) Good earnings may generate a sell off (sell on the news) and bad earnings may generate a sell off. (obvious reasons) leaving all scratching their heads.

     

    Just enough to generate a whole bunch of "noise" as many will lose sight as to how far the rally has come.. That MUST be factored into any near term price action we are going to see..

     

    Remember,We still haven't seen any meaningful pullback..

     

    My broken record , trim overstretched positions , sell calls for income have dry powder, stay the course..

     

    IMHO, nothing in the macro picture has changed.. so far its worked nicely ...LT trend is still decidedly up. plenty of time to re-evaluate if that changes..

     

    30 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    Still great advice that lays it all out so clearly....!
    1 Jul 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    I am an Apple user not Apple investor. I like the products and have had many heated discussions on stocktalk about it. The investors are not quite as fanatical as the Blackberry investors especially after it's fall from grace.
    The company seems to or has the appearance of having lost the WOW factor. Cutting edge products head and shoulders above the rest. The iPhone still a great product has lost the edge with all of the competition, Sammy in particular. The iPods are still best and the recent refinements of them, I like the direction. That seem to be where the company is heading in a refinement mode rather them inovation mode. There were rumors of new product lines a TV, iWatch and hints at others. Apple was late to the cloud and still trying to catch up and integrate it in to their OS. Lion was a big step.
    Right now the software seems to be the weak spot IMO. Personally I like the Chrome browser better then Safari and in using Google I tend to use Google's other products as well. I think Chrome and Chromebooks are a bigger threat to Mr Softy and Apple then they are willing to admit. I have and use a Chromebook and like it's small form, quick use and battery life. Price is a quarter of the price of a Macbook Air.
    I think the stock price will move on the perception of WOW more then anything. If they have decent earnings and a new gotcha product the stock will move up dramatically but I just don't see it with this management. He is a refiner not an innovator.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4

     

    I think you hit the nail on the head about Apple. Your observations match the impressions I've gotten listening to users.

     

    Jobs brought outstanding innovation. Whether his ideas or recognizing those ideas from his team. It's hard to replicate that. Jobs' skill, if Apple recognizes it, was in "human factors" (a field I worked in very briefly) - in designing for likeable use.

     

    Though, with a good corporate culture, I'm personally not going to sell them short (metaphorically) any more than I would IBM after seeing how well they've bounced back from challenging times.

     

    Chrome just snuck up from behind. It's popular with users, but such an afterthought in the business world. Google doesn't play fair. ...one factor is they have inside access to what everyone is googling for.

     

    So question is - will Apple move down/up off the $400 by enough to make an options straddle work?
    30 Jun 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    "Google doesn't play fair" Yes they give things away for your eyeballs. Apple makes you pay through the nose.
    I think most people are just looking for access. I am talking about consumers not business so much but them too to an point. Google allows cheap access and after entering the hardware realm fast too. My Chromebook boots in seconds after that everything in the web is open to me. It suits my needs, quick access and mobility. Isn't that where the world seems to be headed?
    30 Jun 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4

     

    I was agreeing with you on your entire post, so not sure how it came through as disagreement.

     

    I think my comments came through differently than I meant. I mean users like Chrome but Chrome is underaccessed by the MARKET'S business world & by their competitors. (I did not mean that businesses don't like/use Chrome.)

     

    I meant a generic that Google's leaders aren't always going to play fair in business plays. I just don't expect them as business leaders to be "nice" to their competition or "fair" if they can make effective "plays." That's all I meant. They announced (and it didn't get much attention), that they plan to keep & use the info gathered from googling data on individual people (weird announcement ages ago). i.e. They have access to data that allows them to make business moves, that the other company's don't have as much of. Google's freebees are because they want to establish their business base.

     

    So question is the same - will Apple move down/up off the $400 by enough to make an options straddle work?
    30 Jun 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Just posted on currents... http://seekingalpha.co...
    Agree?
    30 Jun 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4

     

    I don't have a personal view of competition going on between apple & google & don't care. My original posting wasn't a comment on one vs. the other.

     

    Do you have an opinion on the article you linked to?
    30 Jun 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Just meddlesome academics spouting off. Just because most people use it doesn't make it a monopoly. There are plenty of browsers out there.
    I don't know if you use Google for searching but I find their algorithms less helpful unless shopping. They seem to prioritize the results according to who pays them the most rather then best information. You get what you pay for I guess.
    30 Jun 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Speaking of Google...

     

    "It is time to break up Google (GOOG)," writes Richard Sennett of the London School of Economics. "The problem is simple: the company is just too powerful, as are Apple (AAPL) and many other big tech groups." Sennett harks back to when the Supreme Court broke up Standard Oil in 1911, when "an overmighty business was shattered into 33 shards." He also cites the progressives of a century ago, such as Herbery Croly, who believed that successful start-ups would extinguish competition and become monopolies. Breaking them up "would set talent free."

     

    Now does this make any sense to those who follow this sector? Reading the comments I am not so sure ..
    30 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4

     

    Bing browser by Microsoft is trying to compete. If they could go at Google for monopoly they would have. When IBM was challenged, there were standards laid out. I'm sure Google & Apple & MS are all making sure they are within them. ...it was stuff like having separate depts in separate divisions work on the same project without any inter-communication, i.e. in competition. So I agree it's academic & babble. What search engine do you like?
    1 Jul 2013, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    metacrawler
    1 Jul 2013, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Check out this nifty graphic about gold...

     

    http://read.bi/14FQhPS
    30 Jun 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    Nice report as it seems to contradict the ones who say $1200 to $1300 is the breakeven amount.
    30 Jun 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    No physical bump in buying of gold on this dip...
    http://bit.ly/127IXtz
    India buying silver instead?
    http://bit.ly/12vxmbV
    30 Jun 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I had read last week that India was starting to buy silver instead. I did not read your link yet but that may have an impact on the price imo.
    30 Jun 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    That has come about because India put a tax on the import of gold.
    30 Jun 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOT

     

    Yup. I saw that also.. Wonder why the tax?? Things that just make me stop short of selling some of my physical..

     

    I know I have to allocate differently just not sure if I hold out for a bounce as some have suggested , or not sell any right now.

     

    Thinking outside the box when I see coupons, discounts, free shipping. etc, I feel they are trying to move a product that they either have too much of or expect another price drop. Ok Bulls tell me why I should not sell !!
    30 Jun 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    India upgraded their "tax" (duty - I am not sure) from something like 4% to 6% of 6% to 8%. The reason - so stated - is to mitigate the impact of gold imports on their balance of payments downward.
    30 Jun 2013, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARK

     

    Think the tax is manipulation in anyway? Hey, don't shoot the messenger here. I was asked .. lol..

     

    Plus I read that now people from India are setting up accounts in other countries as well. Does this seem plausible..
    1 Jul 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Jim Rogers warning ...
    http://bit.ly/14G6kxt
    30 Jun 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ BD4

     

    "Unlike April's $200/oz drop in two days, no surge of physical demand has appeared in response to the gold price's dip below $1,200."
    -- interesting pt from your article.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    BD ,

     

    this is not directed at u ..BUT

     

    "zerohedge" - their ramblings have gotten the markets wrong , and anyone listening to that --- well, sorry no other way to put it "garbage" has in fact lost money ..

     

    yes i have heard it before - "these things take time to play out "

     

    In the meantime anyone following that advice has been left for "dead'.

     

    Caveat emptor . when it comes to "buying" whatever they are selling ...
    30 Jun 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    AS I had posted somewhere I am now getting emails from the gold and silver sellers of freebies, like shipping!

     

    Now to me that isn't a good sign if they are going into discount mode. I wonder why?
    30 Jun 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    And what do you recommend?
    30 Jun 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Is this better?
    http://bit.ly/128eADg
    So do you think Zero Hedge miss quoted Jim Rogers?
    30 Jun 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BDU

     

    I am confused to be honest. I can book profits and buy some dividend paying stocks, or invest in some ETF'S in different sectors. But do I wait for a pullback? Will it happen in a year? With the FED basically saying were not tapering daily are they just telling you to keep investing?

     

    Right now I am leaning towards selling some of mine. I just checked Ebay and a 100 ounce Ebgelhard bar is listed around $3k.. So I might sell a few of those . Then use the funds to reallocate at some point..

     

    What do you suggest?
    30 Jun 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    BD,
    no i didn't say that , Jim rogers can say what he wants and all can choose to buy into his theories, what I said was "zerohedge" - prints "garbage" . their approach to the markets has been totally wrong - not an opinion here, but sheer fact..
    30 Jun 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    I just posted a link I did not endorse any particular site or philosophy. I thought Jim Rogers quotes were timely and relevant.

     

    You make a bold statement about garbage yet show no examples. I also asked if you could give some recommendations of ungarbage sites yet no response. I don't find just saying something is garbage credible, sorry.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I think that's a very astute pick up. Exactly the kind of signal that counts. It goes with the article's claim that there isn't a buy into this silver/gold dip that way there was in April. Which bodes for more down before up.
    1 Jul 2013, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    BD
    Printed Facts dont lie ..
    go back & look at the history & calls zerohedge has made on the markets ...

     

    then please come back and tell me their investment thesis is worth "buying into" .

     

    I suggest it is not ...
    ungarbage site -- SA lots of powerful info here
    1 Jul 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Sorry but your argument falls flat. First tell me what is their investment thesis? Again I posted a link that was a link and you got your undies all in a bunch. Yet does not site one example of poor calls by ZH. Chill out dude. Do you think ZH is my only source of information ... Get real.
    1 Jul 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok guys. Points were made. Lets move on. I tend to agree that Zerohedge just reports news and I know others who use it. However they have been reporting silver and gold should be going through the roof as well.

     

    So to me they are just like every source. Nothing worse nor better either.

     

    We all can have our sources and if you like it post it in the READING section. I tend to agree it is fine as I do read it and I don't see any problems but I also admit I haven't followed it longer then 3 years.

     

    FEAR, what did they say that has you basically calling them fools? This way we can all learn.

     

    Thanks!
    1 Jul 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    BD4

     

    FG didn't say it's your only source of info. Nor did he say your judgement is poor. He didn't comment on you at all.

     

    There are many ways to say you respect ZH or that article & that FG hasn't supported his negative view of ZH... without anyone getting any undies wadded up. I'd be interested, but no need to see things personal here. As a reader outside this exchange... I never saw it as personal at you.
    1 Jul 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I Think you just pointed out one example.. , my original statement said that they have been wrong on the markets - period, further said that if u followed their advice you would have lost money. Directed at them , not anyone personally .

     

    I formed an opinion on them from their continued incorrect assessment of the markets. nothing more , nothing less.

     

    market is up , gold is up all should be smiling ,

     

    Enjoy

     

    1 Jul 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Curls-100: I only occasionally read Zero Hedge. Over the years, I have found "Tyler Durbin" to be persistently bearish and someone who will always view the glass as half empty or full of radioactive sewage.

     

    Virtually every piece of negative information is given more weight than it deserves at that site, while positive information is ignored altogether or viewed as suspect or unworthy of consideration.

     

    Importantly, interpretations of data are invariably skewed to reflect the underlying negative views and biases.

     

    Just as an example, "Durbin" penned an article claiming that the decline in the velocity of money supported his bearish thesis on the economy and the utter silliness of the stock rally. All stock up moves are viewed as ridiculous.

     

    If he had considered that the vast percentage increase in M2 as far exceeding the percent decline in the M2 velocity, he would have arrived at a neutral conclusion, but neutral fact based conclusions based on an unbiased consideration of all the evidence is not his style.

     

    The article which I am referencing was published on 12/19/2011 and was titled "Three Charts That Blow The Doors Off Any Hope Of A 2012 Rally"

     

    http://bit.ly/10uA4xx

     

    FYI, the S & P 500 closed at 1,205.35 on the 12/19/11 and at 1,426.13 on 12/31/12. And, just to drive a point home, the S & P is now almost 35% higher than when that article was published at ZeroHedge.

     

    If an investor wants an unbiased summary of important economic data, I would recommend the Calculated Risk blog:

     

    http://bit.ly/KwO5iy
    1 Jul 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    "If an investor wants an unbiased summary of important economic data, I would recommend the Calculated Risk blog:

     

    http://bit.ly/KwO5iy "

     

    Can you post this in the Reading chapter so that it comes from you. This way in the future people won't think it's from me..

     

    Thanks.

     

    FEAR.. No worries , we all have our opinions that I respect..

     

    BDU... I understand your points as well as I do read Zero,,
    1 Jul 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12725) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Allow me to chime in and cause more trouble, no doubt.

     

    ZeroHedge is exactly the kind of radical-opinion, driven-by-selective-fa... agenda-biased web site that misleads inordinate numbers of investors, if they fall under its thrall. It's aim, precisely, is to inflame negative emotions, and to the extent it achieves this end with readers, it cripples their objective assessment of factual information.

     

    And, to opine that I am not on any warpath directed at ZH, alone, I could say the same thing about other sites with rather one-sided views, like Huffington Post, etc., as well. Even CNBC has its factual information frequently smothered in lots of attention-grabbing punditry that, too often, leads investors astray and detracts from their ability to make independent judgments about what's actually represented by data. That's why I don't even turn it on; it's a distraction and detracts from time spent reading, researching and thinking independently.

     

    One of the best things about SA is that its Market Currents offers an excellent news feed on factual information that's mostly (not always) not slathered with hefty doses of editorial opinion. Of course, articles and commentary are abundantly available to serve that purpose, so readers must try to sift through sources to find those that make useful analyses of data, rather than merely shouting out opinions.

     

    The investors who perform the best are those that spend more time researching and thinking about actual data and its implications and less time getting swept up in emotional debates by sources that usually offer perpetually bullish or calamitous views of the universe.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    You caused no trouble. I agree with your assessment. I just want people to feel comfortable posting their places for information. Wished you posted this comment in the READING section as it is a valid point.

     

    Would you mind copy and pasting it so that it comes from you?

     

    "One of the best things about SA is that its Market Currents offers an excellent news feed on factual information that's mostly (not always) not slathered with hefty doses of editorial opinion."

     

    Many don't know this exists..
    1 Jul 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12725) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    "Link to "Reading Section?"
    1 Jul 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I started one chapter just for Reading material so that people did not have to search though numerous chapters to find what I consider important information..

     

    My link does not flow into this one. It is separate ..

     

    Hope this explains it.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2736) | Send Message
     
    I agree with the concept of doing your own thinking also TACK.
    1 Jul 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Have Fed worries already been adjusted into the market?

     

    How could CBOE VI and VIX be down -- when there's obvious large reaction every time some Fed-associated person speaks?

     

    "CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's favorite barometer of investor anxiety, fell nearly 11 percent in the past week. In Friday's session alone, the VIX ended flat at 16.86."
    http://bit.ly/18owD0g
    30 Jun 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The linked articles and comments are a good read also...:o)
    30 Jun 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    When you link, it'd help if you could include a tibit on what the topic is?

     

    On James Altucher, I didn't see what the mass appeal is. I didn't check out the stock's track records, so maybe that's it. He's looking for penny & low cap stocks for big growth. When challenged to defend his record, he brushed over it posting a few winners instead of a % that wins (something solid like that). I got a sense of flag, & caution in my gut. Others find him "truth telling" but I didn't see any particular truths or untruths.
    (I wondered how much he posted & stocks went up for him to gain on..., if he was back because he needed some money. Tackly thought & I haven't been around long enough to know his style at all... it was just part of caution & questions I asked.)

     

    @ IT
    The cursing in his article really turned me off, distracted from it. I was surprised it was allowed to stay.
    1 Jul 2013, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Yup, and the first comment made by a SA Editor??

     

    Like I said I got surprised my article was removed for caps though. Plus an Author told me they are getting discouraged as to what they accept, and what they want you to change.

     

    Censorship is very important not to mess with, you do lose credibility. I understand guidelines, but that article disturbed me more with that first comment being positive and rewarding..
    1 Jul 2013, 02:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    It adds to my sense of caution when I see receiving of special treatment. Maybe he was a big draw that helped build the site?

     

    That caps removal made no sense whatsoever that I could figure out. I've tried to remember to save some of the chapters just in case.
    1 Jul 2013, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    I see that M Jackson is the latest obfuscation to hit the wires. What next Elvis sightings heat stroked LV? Oh wait ...
    30 Jun 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    BTW, my GE got exercised yesterday 23 (my first, probably of many to come). So now I am sitting on 16% cash and waiting to see how earnings season shakes out. Come to think of it, I will probably just sit pat until after the next FOMC meeting hoping for more volatility down to see what I can pick up cheap. That will give me about a month to do some homework after earnings season..
    30 Jun 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    Hopefully that "exercise" will make your money fatter soon :). Thanks for sharing it.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Not,

     

    You demonstrate great discipline,, just looked at my cash % after the June expiration and i'm about 19% .. Like u, time to wade thru earnings season and what may be slow summer to maybe pick up some bargains..

     

    Here is one for the books,,
    I mentioned earlier i had Sold the 70 BBBY calls against my position, they expired 6/21.
    Stock closed that day at $69.99 - (cant make this stuff up),, given the second life I sold the 70's again last tue . pure luck , but sometimes rather be lucky than good :) Stock sits @ 70.85 now after a decent earnings report .. So we'll see what July brings ....
    30 Jun 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    I believe you subscribed to that newsletter as I did about the rankings of BDC'S and you had a discussion in the comments on that article about your opinions.

     

    Curious what you thought of the newsletter? Was the Author on target?

     

    I am trying to learn about this group but I am not sure I kept the link to that specific article. I know I posted it for you once. So if you think it is a good read I will search for it again, and repost it for all.

     

    Being a newbie to this group I want a more seasoned investor to answer it. FEAR , you may remember when I posted it to TACK. I am sure it is in my comment section just have to spend the time looking for it.

     

    I tried to copy the newsletter but I could not do it and post it here!
    30 Jun 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12725) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I find the newsletter a useful summary of various data and statistics that a prospective investor can use in the context of formulating one's own judgments. As I stated in a previous post, personally, I don't rank Buzz's five criteria equally, as I put more weight on profitability trends and valuation than on subjective evaluations of risk, regulated payouts and analyst opinions.

     

    30 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    I believe you posted that in his article. I know I did post here, somewhere his article. If someone is interested TACK and the Author went back and forth in an educational way.

     

    I PM''D the Author asking him to post some comments here and he looked at the blog but I guess decided not to.

     

    BDC'S seem to be misunderstood according to TACK'S info and was also pointed out in the comment section of that article as well. I am looking at a ton of info TACK graciously forwarded to me about different sectors.

     

    Honestly it is overwhelming for a novice to decide what is best . I have a lot of work to do on it as it was cumbersome.. Obviously the education TACK has accumulated over the years just can't be consumed in a short period of time.

     

    Is there an ETF for just the BDC'S , AND IF SO IS IT A GOOD WAY TO INVEST IN THEM?

     

    Open to anyone who has knowledge of this sector..

     

    Again, TACK, thanks!
    30 Jun 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12725) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    ETN's:

     

    BDCS
    BDCL (2X)
    30 Jun 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Got it ! Thanks.
    30 Jun 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack, IT

     

    Did you find the link to the BDC article?
    Or which Chapter Tack described a lot? (I have down that such a chapter exists, but not the chapt#. ...oh so "not" organized, lol.)
    1 Jul 2013, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    You wish is my command !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I would suggest reading the comment section as TACK had some valid points and consider signing up for the free newsletter.

     

    If up to it maybe consider a cut and paste job Curls and invite the commenters who have experience In the BDC'S to join us??

     

    Just send them a PM, cut and paste if you are up to it. Would like to hear from some of those posters which companies they like. I am also going to prod TACK to list hid favorite 5 for all to do research on !!
    1 Jul 2013, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I KNOW I AM SHOUTING. THOUGHT OF AN IDEA.. I AM OPENING CHAPTER 21 STRICTLY FOR POSTINGS OF WHAT AN INDIVIDUAL USES FOR READING MATERIAL FOR INVESTING..

     

    IT COULD BE BOOKS, WEB PAGES, ANYTHING. I KNOW I AM SIMPLIFYING HERE BUT MAYBE IF WE HAD A LIST OF SITES DIFFERENT PEOPLE USE IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL..

     

    IT WILL BE OPEN SOON! REMEMBER ONCE THIS CHAPTER FILLS UP WE WILL SKIP 21 AND GO TO 22 !!
    30 Jun 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I ADDED THE CHAPTER WITHOUT A NUMBER SO WE CAN GO FROM 20 TO 21 WITH THIS SEPERATE..HOPE THIS IS A GOOD IDEA.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Jun 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration:

     

    http://bit.ly/118j6aU
    30 Jun 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Not,
    Josh Brown is One of the select few on CNBC that is worth listening to - IMHO, a common sense approach,,
    30 Jun 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Not trying to make this difficult but could you repost that in the READING chapter. My intent is to build up a library in one post so that people don't have to go through 50 chapters to find a post.

     

    I am open to suggestions for additional chapters on specific topics you folks want ! Just PM me or post it. I just think personally ONE spot for specific items or thought will be beneficial. A few post already are !! I just read NOTRUB'S article and it makes sense..

     

    I just ordered COINS suggestion for my Kindle...$5 bucks ain't bad !!
    30 Jun 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOT

     

    Can you repost this in the READING CHAPTER?

     

    Thanks!
    30 Jun 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Another report that may have some impact in the short term..

     

    The weekly poll from the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), which asks money managers to provide a number that represents their overall equity exposure as of the Wednesday's close each week, reveals a group that has really pulled back its exposure. (contrarian indicator - now bullish)This past week's reading was the lowest since late May 2012, which preceded an excellent buying opportunity......
    30 Jun 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ F&G

     

    That bullishness on the NAAIM's high pull out to cash...is opposite to your "stay steady & ready with the cash" theme from prior posting?

     

    My gut has been cash is good right now & glad to see their doing it too... and to wait a little for more pull back before going all in.

     

    Thoughts?
    1 Jul 2013, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    a lot of my posts about the market lean towards the Long term crowd.
    I do follow and try to evaluate what short term trends might be upon us.. Th NAAIM is just one of many that "might" give a clue to as to where the market may be headed in a month or two.. keep in mind things like this survey can change pretty quickly. Another example of how one can get whipsawed by trying to follow every report . every day..

     

    So mixed messages for sure will always be there in any short term outlook.
    1 Jul 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    An article about stocks beaten down by the latest Russell 3000 reconstituting:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    If you look at his charts there are several that are making money, have little or no debt and worth investigating as to entry in a portfolio or watchlist.
    30 Jun 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    NOTRUB: I looked at the two tables, provided in Alan's article,
    containing the companies recently ejected from the Russell 2000.

     

    I own one of them-North American University (NAUH). I discussed buying 200 shares in my blog at $3.76, and I subsequently averaged down with a 100 share purchase. It pays a decent dividend of about 4.3% at its current price. I am a few bucks in the black.

     

    I added another reject, Echelon, to my monitor list for potential Lottery Ticket purchases last week. And, I own two others as part of my Lottery Ticket basket strategy which keeps me away from the Blackjack tables:

     

    Last Update 6/25/13:
    Updated Tables for the Lottery Ticket and Regional Bank Basket Strategies/Bought 50 FNB at $11.25

     

    http://bit.ly/14H8vAK

     

    One of those is a tiny position in TINY.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Thanks SG.

     

    I did a cursory scan and came up with:

     

    (NAUH) North American University
    (http://bit.ly/14HarcD) Sypris Solutions Inc.
    (http://bit.ly/14HapBm) Berkshire Bancorp Inc.
    (http://bit.ly/14HarcG) MicroFinancial Inc.
    (http://bit.ly/MWHLHe) Frisch's Restaurants, Inc.

     

    All are still growing, have low debt, and pay a dividend.
    I still have a lot of DD to do on them before I consider taking a position on any of them.

     

    BTW, I have started reading your blog and have considered setting up a "lottery ticket" fund also. Just so I have some place to put those "urges" to take on a lot of risk in small amounts that won't matter in the long run. That way if they all fall apart it just gives me more conviction to stay the course with my more conservative strategy...:o)
    30 Jun 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Northrub: I satisfy my gambling urge with the LT strategy. I allow my Right Brain to swing for the fences at up to $300 per swing.

     

    I am looking for stocks that have already been smashed to smithereens, and are generally unloved and given up for dead. So stocks thrown out of the Russell 2000 are natural hunting grounds for this type of selection, as are stocks hitting new 52 week lows. I will generally be buying securities priced at less than $10 per share and have at least a ray of light visible at the end of whatever dark tunnel engulfs them. Common criteria include price to book and price to sales less than 1.

     

    I noticed several problems with Berkshire Bancorp after looking at its last quarterly report.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/17x1Qvp

     

    One is that the bank had invested $53M, at amortized cost, in auction rate preferred securities, and $34.8M of that amount was invested in below investment grade. Those securities have had failed auctions and now pay interest at a similar rate as paid on money market deposit accounts. (page 31)

     

    Another issue is that the E.P.S. number for the 2013 first quarter was at $.07 down from $.15 in the year ago quarter.

     

    And the net interest margin is also low at 2.66%;

     

    The bank does have excellent capital ratios (page 44). Loan losses are low also. The bank does not set out the usual metrics for evaluating performance in its earnings releases which makes an analysis more difficult.

     

    The bank did trade briefly over $20 in 2005 and at $15 as late as May 2008

     

    I was not aware of this bank until you mentioned it. I have already concluded that it is not suitable for inclusion in my monitor list for the regional bank basket strategy. It is suitable for inclusion in the monitor list for the Lottery Ticket basket. I have two banks in the LT basket that are in line for promotions to the regional bank basket that will allow me to invest more.

     

    North American University was included in the Flyers Basket Strategy which allows for up to a $1,000 investment and is not viewed as gambling but still risky requiring a low limit on the exposure amount. Leapfrog and Xerox were in that category.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I found this old article that should get mixed reviews. I see CURLS commented on it ..

     

    Can't wait to read some posts as to who agrees or disagrees. I PM'D the author as an invite but I suspect he might pass. Let's see the posts !!!
    30 Jun 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FWIW

     

    We have over 3400 comments on this blog so far. I find that amazing !!

     

    Keep posting folks!
    30 Jun 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Has this German Gold thing been discussed here so far? How can it be that the US doesn't want to give it back (needs 7 years for 300 tons....)? Is it all lend out and they are sitting on paper gold?
    30 Jun 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRUFFEL

     

    I have posted it a few times but really get no response from the bears on it!!
    30 Jun 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I am surprised as that would indicate that there is much less physical Gold than there should be. I am really surprised the US Fed doesn't agree to an audit of the German Gold. If this is true you have a run on the banks coming that will make 2008 look childish. No one concerned about this?
    30 Jun 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TRUFFEL

     

    I am in agreement, but we can't even get an audit of Ft. Knox.!!

     

    Some don't see this as an issue. I surely do. But what do i know.. Germany wanted it back for a reason.
    30 Jun 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Ft. Knox is US business - the German Gold is actually owned by Germany. They should have a right to request an audit. Not exactly pocket money.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @truffle

     

    Ft. Knox is US business so it should have an audit as well. I saw about a year ago Fox Business News was allowed to do a photo shot of Ft. Knox but the guy doing it held up a huge bar that had a serial number on it and said look at all this gold !

     

    Well don't you know that someone said that serial number did not match anything Ft. Knox WAS SUPPOSE TO HAVE!! So the next thing I heard was that Ft. Knox ALSO holds gold for other entities.

     

    Me thinks they just shipped gold in from their cronies and got caught with their pants down. I saw this with my own eyes , not a story or an article..
    30 Jun 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ Truffle

     

    Do you have any insights to add to the Apple talk much earlier in this Chapter 20? You were the inspiration for it :).
    1 Jul 2013, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Since I strongly believe AAPL has bottomed here at last, I would buy $500 2015 LEAP calls. One can sell some higher calls to make them cheaper, but I didn't because I do not want to cap upside. I do not think AAPL can significantly fall from here and a straddle in this case probably wouldn't make much sense.

     

    As example for Straddle, the 2015 $400 call would cost ca. $5300 and the puts $7000. Combined that makes 12,300. This combo would make money if AAPL goes <280 (.....chances for that?) or >520. I think the latter is highly likely and you can save money with just the call and make it break even at 460 or so!
    1 Jul 2013, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    What's your guru up to?... http://www.gurufocus.com
    30 Jun 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Think this belongs in the READING chapter? Just asking !!
    1 Jul 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Below is a PM from an old friend who I tried to get a few posts from. It is Options Girl (OG) as is her nickname and I have known her for years. I am posting what she sent me but feels like a lot of what she does is too advanced for our group.

     

    Which may be true. But for anyone involved in options and has specific questions please ask and I will try to twist her arm to answer them.

     

    "I'm not doing stock picking, I'm writing options. It's not the same thing. You can have an excellent stock that doesn't trade options or an excellent stock that has hardly traded options because of low volatility. In options writing we look for rich premiums goosed by volatility. You have to be approved by your broker to trade options. I don't discuss it because people who are newbies haven't studied options strategies and can't trade them. It's not appropriate for your blog.

     

    Here are some dividend payers to review-- Caution: DD necessary.
    MLP's don't belong in retirement accounts--
    Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT), Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) and Suburban Propane (SPH). All three have yields above 7%. "

     

    So for those advanced please take a look at her comment to me!

     

    Hope some find this useful!
    1 Jul 2013, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Let's post inline in the chapters with our sources... then add them to the reading chapter as we go along too.

     

    When I have a moment I'll try to post the list of sources I've been gathering from here & on my own... (I'm an organizer, there's a bunch.)
    1 Jul 2013, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I am fine with that. Honestly I just want a list in that chapter so people can go back and reference it !!
    1 Jul 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Where is the new safe haven?... http://bit.ly/19O3N7t
    1 Jul 2013, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    iWatch trademark in Japan... http://bit.ly/1aunYdm
    1 Jul 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Another source ... http://bit.ly/19O4qOz
    1 Jul 2013, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • bd4uandu
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Would you buy iWatch? What features would prompt you to buy one?
    1 Jul 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10144) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MOVING ALONG TO CHAPTER 21 !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    So now we have two options, the READING CHAPTER and our regular comments. WHY is the market up almost over 150 points already?

     

    Please answer this in next chapter. Thanks ...Gold and Silver are UP ALSO !!

     

    Thoughts on this in next chapter !!
    1 Jul 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
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