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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 21......... 201 comments
    Jul 1, 2013 10:08 AM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (GLD) and (SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Post away !!

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Comments (201)
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  • Author’s reply » Any importance to today economic reports? Can someone define straddle positions? What do we expect in a short trading week?


    Post away !!
    1 Jul 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Citigroup (C) agrees to pay Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) $968M to settle potential mortgage repurchase claims on 3.7M mortgages sold to Fannie between 2000 and 2012. The bank expects to report a mortgage repurchase reserve build of $245M in Q2. Shares +0.8% premarket. (PR)


    Can someone explain the logic of this??


    APPLE is above $400. IS IT A BUY??
    1 Jul 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I commented on (AAPL) here last Fri,,


    Always get an emotional debate on this stock,, Last week seemed to be a good "set-up" for entry with the end of quarter selling.. Still like it here :)
    1 Jul 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    For those who follow the metals. I thought this was a very informative article. Any thoughts on this ?
    1 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, so I was busy today. Anything shocking happen? I see gold was up, stocks were up, how about interest rates??
    1 Jul 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @COINS


    Your our coins salesman as well as Doug. What are your opinions on this article about silver and gold sales from the mint?



    1 Jul 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • gold/silver ratio dictates buying silver over gold. My last article discussed this.
    2 Jul 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • There is a rule that the U.S. Mint has to buy only U.S. mined Silver. And then there is the large mine in Utah that collapsed recently.


    Wouldn't this mean that the ASE program will suffer some distress in acquiring Silver for future production. I'm just thinking it makes Silver more attractive.So many times when there is disparity between the 2 metals ,a dealer can use the ratio to improve his position. Selling Gold at a premium while buying Silver at a small discount is a great way.Selling anything at a profit and reloading is always the key to survival in a down market. But that's easier said than done. I think the bigger you are the harder it is to accomplish this.I like being a small time dealer.
    2 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @COINS


    I have read recently that they are considering changing the law on where the silver has to be minted. I did not keep the link but I believe the Mint had to buy the silver from an outside country .


    If we had a quantity squeeze it might get approved from Congress.
    2 Jul 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Kennecott's mine is averaging about 4 mil ounces of silver production per year.
    2 Jul 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Are stock buybacks by companies a bearish or bullish sign?
    PM from a lurker!!
    3 Jul 2013, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • I don't believe there are any public laws related to what the U.S. Mint can and can't do with silver, but there is with gold. If you substitute the word silver for gold in your questions, I have provided the best answers based on Public Law 99-185 or the “Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985.”


    "where the silver has to be minted."


    “(3) The Secretary shall acquire gold for the coins issued under section 5112(i) of this title by purchase of gold mined from natural deposits in the United States, or in a territory or possession of the United States, within one year after the month in which the ore from which it is derived was mined. The Secretary shall pay not more than the average world price for the gold. In the absence of available supplies of such gold at the average world price, the Secretary may use gold from reserves held by the United States to mint the coins issued under section 5112(i) of this title. The Secretary shall issue such regulations as may be necessary to carry out this paragraph.”


    "Wouldn't this mean that the ASE program will suffer some distress in acquiring Silver for future production."


    “(i) (1) Notwithstanding section 5111 (a)(1) of this title, the Secretary shall mint and issue the gold coins described in paragraphs (7), (8,) (9), and (10) of subsection (a) of this
    section, in quantities sufficient to meet public demand.

    3 Jul 2013, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link Doug. I believe that that may have been construed to be appllicable for the entire American Eagle coin program. Since I buy the monster box of ASE's in January each year,that is where my focus was. Nevertheless it would be nice to know the whole story.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • ASE current year sales(2013), are in January and therefore the numbers rack up in the1st quarter.Also buyers go crazy when there is a huge price drop.That may not reflect the sentiment after the BIG correction.Dealers buying from the mint have done most of their buying of 2013 Silvers Eagles for the year. Gold Eagles will be selling continually through December in Proof sets and business strikes. Those numbers on Mineseek are probably correct but don't represent the sentiment completely.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like


    Just got this in my email today.
    7 Jul 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • And for $2 more here, lol



    I love it when they sell these things and never list the buy back price.
    7 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @DOUG


    Let me ask you a question for people who have collected silver or gold over the years and want to sell some. Do they use


    1) local coin shops
    2) coin shows
    3) Ebay
    4) Other.


    This is open to anyone who has had experience in selling their metals !


    @coins, you might be able to shed some light on this as well, As an example a person bought ASE'S for 5 bucks over spot. What price can they negotiate ( or accept) once they decide they want to sell?
    7 Jul 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • IT, depends on if they bought bullion coins and bars vs. numismatic/rate/collec... coins. I don't sell the latter and those who buy them are relegated to the place they bought them as well as Ebay and possibly other places, but don't expect a good price. The PCGS website can tell you what the coin is worth, but no one ill pay you retail for it. The closest might be Ebay, but you have to pay a 9% commission to them.


    I sell only bullion coins and bars. My bid price is over spot for the most popular coins; Eagles and Maples and right at spot for the bars, give or take. I have just a 1% fee.


    If I died tomorrow, anyone can sell what I sell to any dealer and get a pretty good price for them.


    The best thing a buyer can do is ask one simple question; If I buy this coin from you today at xxxx spot price, and sell it back to you immediately at the same spot price, what will you give me for it. If a company doesn't list the buy back price, then typically it won't be good.


    7 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    A few years ago I had some silver eagle proof sets that I wanted to sell. I had about $3-4k worth. I contacted dealers that I found online and there are 2 important things to mention.
    1) There was a big difference in price in what the dealers offered to pay me between different dealers, so one must shop around and compare,
    2) None of the dealers offered me anything even remotely close to the sell price.


    I decided to sell them on Ebay and got what was at that time prices slightly above what dealers were selling them for, in other words, slightly above market. So, even with the Ebay fee's having to be taken out which ended up making my price received slightly below market, I still did much better than selling to a dealer.


    I havent paid much attention the last couple of years so I dont know if things have changed with respect to dealers paying more but I occasionally check Ebay prices to compare and it appears the ASE's sell for a slightly higher price on Ebay than from dealers.


    I dont have any experience with trying to sell at coin shows so don't know how well that works.
    7 Jul 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @DOUG and TAMPAT !


    I was strictly talking about ASE'S and AGE'S. I know the numismatic coins are like a car, once you leave the showroom most are worth a lot less then what you paid for them.


    I was just trying to find out the best way to sell bullion if you did not buy it directly from an on line dealer, or have had it for years .


    But if a person recently bought ASE'S for lets say 4 bucks over spot , as it was about a month ago, the best they can get back is around spot right now? Unless they list it on Ebay and pay the fees.


    I am going to call my coin shop up on Monday and see what he is offering to buy it back. I know a Gainesville rep at a coin show was offering about a buck over spot for ASE'S but that was a year ago.


    7 Jul 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • IT, may make sense to find a local dealer because you have to pay to ship the coins to the dealer.
    7 Jul 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • All


    Anybody hear of a Chinese company building a Panama canal Junior in Nicaragua?
    2 Jul 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Hi Rin,
    Yes, I have heard of this canal. The Nicaraguan govt is pushing the idea and the common people have been demonstrating against it. My wife just returned from Nicaragua to visit family, there is a lot of discussion going on there, but the govt seems to be going full steam ahead.







    These are some links I found in English though there other sites in Spanish with a lot of comments both pro and con (mostly con).
    3 Jul 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Rin,


    There was an article in our local newspaper about it yesterday.
    Except that it won't be PC Junior, it will be much bigger, deeper, allowing for more and larger vessels to use it.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Still
    Thank you for providing the sites and interesting information; just exploring for investment opportunities in Nicaragua that a canal might bring; I hear also that such a canal might help our exports from the US east ports
    3 Jul 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    thanks for reply; the PC is also being improved for bigger vessels
    3 Jul 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FOLKS


    I just saw that car sales did well. Is the economy really healing ?


    2 Jul 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • If one throws over $2 trillion at the economy, some of that will leak out into some places that will do well for a time. Then the music stops and investors look for chairs.
    2 Jul 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Economy has been healing and the market has been telling us that ,


    For those that chose to listen the gains are in the neighborhood of 25% since last fall,,


    markets don't trade on absolutes just look for change either positive or negative .. In this case there is a positive change taking place .


    IMO, If one desires to keep looking at the negatives , they have missed this rally and may miss future upside..


    Not hype or opinion here just simple facts .. There is no "illusiuon" to the profits that have been booked this year ..


    Happy investing !
    2 Jul 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Doug ,


    a very shortsighted view,, and one that has been professed during one of the best bull market runs in history..


    at this point , investors who believed have bought their "chairs" and are playing with house money ..


    I also remember those words being uttered at S & P 1400 , 1500 & now 1600 -- In all due respect its a broken record,,


    Yes blame it on the fed & their trillions - after all, its all an illusion !! ")


    Each to his/her own ----- Bottom line is increasing wealth !


    Enjoy & Cheers !!
    2 Jul 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR



    Can anyone give me an opinion on this .My daughter was told that next year (SEPT) as a head sub in our high school THEY could only use her 4 days a week because they would be forced to pay her benefits if she worked over 29.5 hours.


    They will not, so is that law waived for a year? I am not sure reading this. Can se some help with the interpretation,


    3 Jul 2013, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • Fear&Greed, but I'm right, right now. The Fed was relevant for awhile, but this game they are playing with everyone's money is one that is built on a balance sheet and future decisions that all have to come into perfect formation for the game to succeed. My research shows it won't. If you disagree, show me the data and give me your reasoning.


    I post all the "data" in my articles. Post some positive data on the economy and prove me wrong instead of throwing out conjecture.


    It is an illusion because investors won't sell. They are taught by the system (what advisors are taught) that all is well as long as you "invest for the long term." You might hedge some of this with things that other advisors won't or can't touch because of restrictions, and it may or may not work for you, but don't be an arm chair quarterback and be so "shortsighted" and think the Fed's balance sheet is irrelevant, that the debt created without gold's relationship to the Federal Reserve Notes left unattended is irrelevant and that the same people who didn't see 2007 coming are now your heroes. They have dug a bigger hole and you know it.


    And yes, "this time will be different." I won't gloat though.


    Happy 4th!
    3 Jul 2013, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I "heard" the same as is being reported in your link.. delaying obamacare till 2015.. I have no other details , we all have opinions on obamacare .. suffice to say I'm not a fan ..
    3 Jul 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    Happy 4th to you also,


    Merely citing that its seems to be convenient to dismiss what has transpired in the equities market , with the cries of "I'm right now "


    We shall see, anyway its ironic that you state that the illusion is there because the LT investor "wont sell." I can assure you many have booked profits along the way , hedged with options and now sit with yield from their core holdings. I've stated that many times over so its not armchair , nor monday mornng quarterbacking.. Simple fact. Reason I say Ironic is that ,unless i have misinterperted your mantra, you suggest buying Pm's at different price levels , to hold forever as insurance .. Now with Gold in a bear market , believe what u wish, it may take years with no return on investment...


    The equity scenario , I have described , lays out where I've been, where we are now and a belief of where we might go regarding equities. Right , wrong or indifferent , my "facts" have been stated..


    Very Fortunate at this time to be happy with results..


    Learned a long time ago to never "gloat" , markets are humbling.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • F&G, Let me restate what my intent was...I said "the illusion is there because the long term investor won't sell."


    Fed QE programs, TARP, etc., is unprecedented in history. Naturally we can agree on that. This has given the "illusion" that all is well in the economy, with stocks, with bonds, etc. The investors, for the most part, simply trust their advisors, and believe that holding through the down turns in any market will eventually reap them higher returns. Financial advisors, you will agree, but you may be an exception I don't know, did not see 2007 coming in any way, shape or form. We know the Fed didn't either, and we know Congress didn't.


    The investor is always a day late and a dollar short when it comes to understanding our stock markets, let alone the advice financial advisors give. Our entire education system is set up this way to where individuals know nothing about stocks and investing, let alone gold and its place in monetary history and finally what the Federal Reserve System actually is and what they do. I would hope, we agree on this too.


    So the "illusion" is based on all of the above, which is fluff by the Fed (unprecedented) and ignorance by most individuals investing (education system) and somewhat ignorance by most advisors (which I was one for over 20 years before carving out my niche). Even the professional money managers possess an illusion they can beat the indexes. Same with the Hedge Fund managers.


    You may have a system that works with your "hedged with options" investing. I can say with about 100% accuracy, you are unique with this. Most financial advisors can't practice that type of planning for their clients because of their overlords (brokerages), or don't know how to do such a thing. I wish you would simply give me a link to what you have said and done to help me understand you, but at the same time, I understand you are not the "norm." Naturally I think you know this. First reason is you actually discuss things with me which most advisors don't and won't.


    I'd also like to know your take on the current economic data if you will. Or point me to an article that shows me where your thinking is at present as you know where I stand (you mentioned you turned negative at the same time as my article, but I didn't see a link to that sentiment change).


    Regarding gold, you need to understand we are in a "cyclical" bear within a "secular" bull. Your observation that " it may take years with no return on investment" comes without any data or reasoning. Why? Because the separation of gold and Federal Reserve Notes is just a 42 year experiment. In those 42 years, where have we gone with monetary policy?


    Where have we gone with Central Bank Balance sheets? collective central bank balance sheets have actually shrunk over the past three months – by approximately US$415 billion with the ECB shrinking $370 billion (I have written much on Europe and Japan issues, which is the basis of why I am dollar bullish).




    Student Loan Bubble
    FDIC underwater
    PBGC underwater
    Banks don't mark to market with blessing of FASB
    Banks hold more sub-investment grade derivatives on their books today than at the height of the financial crisis
    How will the unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet effect the stock market, interest rates and economy? "Whenever the US central bank curbs the monetary pumping this weakens the diversion of real wealth and undermines the existence of bubble activities—it generates an economic bust."
    Treasury bubble (although I am still and will for a bit be bullish on treasuries for the same reason I am bullish on the dollar)


    This is just a sampling.


    Gold = Insurance


    I've said this many times, there are many cracks in the system and it wouldn't surprise me that some of those cracks in other countries bring this Humpty Dumpty economy here in the U.S. down eventually, because of Central Banking relationships and our largest banks relationships with each other and international parties, but in the short term, the dollar is still king.


    Most unbiased people would have to believe that a Black Swan event is reason enough to own gold as insurance. That's the niche I represent. No one is selling their physical gold and silver with the downturn. These are the same type of individuals who own car, home and other insurances they hope to never collect upon. The difference being, a maintaining of purchasing power; a 1964 silver dime still has $1.42 of purchasing power. 25 cents (of silver) would buy you a gallon of gas back then. That same silver content of that quarter today would buy you up to a $4.26 gallon of gas. It would take 42 1965 dimes to come out equal today.


    Glad you don't gloat, but you can promote.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • DE:


    A little arithmetic:


    In 1965, silver was $1.29/oz. Today it hovers at approximately $19.70. That's a 1427% increase. Sounds impressive, eh?


    In 1965, the SPX was at 85. Today, it is at 1610. That's a 1794% increase, and if distributed dividends (~3%) were compounded at the same rate, that would add another 300+% to the total.


    So, one could have held silver for 1427% gains or equities for 2100+% compounded gains. Take your pick.
    3 Jul 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tack, a little common sense...


    Easy to calculate such when one of those markets are at a high and the other beaten down. Talk to me in a few years ok?


    Meanwhile, it takes 42 1965 dimes to buy a the equivalent purchasing power today of 2.5 dimes in 1964. I thought money was supposed to hold value? (as opposed to currency).


    Money: A current medium of exchange in the form of coins and banknotes; coins and banknotes collectively.


    Currency: A system of money in general use in a particular country.
    The fact or quality of being generally accepted or in use.


    Investment: The action or process of investing money for profit or material result. A thing that is worth buying because it may be profitable or useful in the future.


    Why does everyone who tries to criticize gold try and compare it to stocks returns? Why can't an investor buy 80% to 90% of their portfolio with stocks, bonds and real estate and have 10% to 20% with gold as insurance?


    Do you think gold investors are stupid and just put all their money into gold and live in a cave waiting for the world to end?
    3 Jul 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • DE:


    Who puts their money in a tin can under the bed? Maybe, the same kinds of folks who hoard gold, I'm not sure.


    I gave you the exact results from the exact same years you specified. That's 48 years, not long enough for you? Right, the sun will always come out tomorrow.


    Look, if you want to tell me that the gist of your original commentary was that investors should hold 10% of their non-invested assets in gold, rather than cash, I have no argument that that's a better choice, but that's not what I inferred the discussion was about.
    3 Jul 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • >Why does everyone who tries to criticize gold try and compare it to stocks returns?


    Opportunity costs.


    Why do gold proponents compare gold returns to stuffing dollar bills under a mattress, when there are myriad investments out there?


    As far as 10-20% of your portfolio, I doubt you'll find anyone here who disagrees with that. But that implies 80% elsewhere, and when you read some of these articles, and the sentiment of the commentary, it's hard to imagine that some people are putting their money ANYWHERE BUT gold, rather than putting the majority elsewhere.
    3 Jul 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm - do you have any data, stats, evidence, etc. to suggest that:


    1. Gold is widely held by anyone other than Central Banks and Funds such as GLD
    2. Traditional investors (retail) hold any form of investment in gold in anything resembling large proportions of their assets


    Let me give you a couple stats:


    a. 27 % of Americans have zero savings
    b. 46 % have less than $800 saved
    c. 2/3 of working households age 55 - 64 (typically the only ones who have any kind of savings at all) have less than 1x their annual income saved
    d. 38 million working HOUSEHOLDS do not own any IRA or 401K assets at all
    e. 55-64 age group households that DO have retirement assets in IRA/401k vehicles have ~ $250,000.


    So, where do you see "some people putting their money anywhere but gold"? Which group would that be? Do you know of any IRA/401k vehicle provided by an EMPLOYER that permits investments like that. Only in self directed IRA could that be possible. And then, rarely I suspect, would you find anyone owning 100% of their assets in PHYSICAL gold (too complicated to do).
    3 Jul 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack - what is your definition of "hoard". If I own an ounce - am I a hoarder? What about 2? What about 10? When do I become a hoarder. Or are you just using a general derogatory term to describe one who has an investment position that is contrary to yours?


    Just so you all know.....the US Mint has only sold 19.5 million ounces of American Gold Eagle bullion coins in the last 27 years.


    Who keeps cash in a safe in the house?
    3 Jul 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @DNORM


    Welcome to our little family,, Thanks for dropping in for a comment. Don't be a stranger!
    3 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, sorry, been in an aggressive mode lately (if people can't tell) and read your post wrong.


    Yes, both impressive.


    Bot not equal by definition.


    Think I'll stop posting for awhile, but I sincerely want to hear F&G's reply to my last comment to him.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm, agree, many think one or the other on both sides and in my quick read of Tack's response, I put him in that camp which was a mistake.


    Reminds me of a Human League song...
    3 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
    >dnorm - do you have any data, stats, evidence, etc.


    Perhaps you missed this:
    "when you read some of these articles, and the sentiment of the commentary"


    Peter Schiff and his ilk aren't saying "diversify"; they're saying sell everything and buy gold. And if they aren't outwardly stating it, they're strongly implying it, along with predicting some global economic collapse where only gold will be worth anything.



    Some of the articles here are worse. I'd link you some more examples, but I see you around enough that I bet you know what I'm talking about.


    But I agree; most Americans are broke and/or full of sh*t when it comes to their wealth and investment performance. And I count authors, here and elsewhere, in that group.


    Maybe the issue is that you self-identify with the "gold bug" crowd (same goes for Mr. Eberhardt), when the reality is you're not exactly what others (like me) are referring to when they say "gold bug"?


    I spend a lot of time cruising internet forums; the "passion" behind gold proponents is crazy.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • WM:


    Hoarding is when anybody has a disproportionate share of their wealth in any asset. Reading through SA, one comes across numerous posts from those claiming to have most or all their money in gold, or metals and cash, as if that indicates some level of prudence.


    And, looking back the last few years, there's been a lot of derogatory comment about equities and the "phony" rally, as if anybody with sense would only have a stockpile of gold, or cash rubber-banded together, hidden away somewhere (probably along with the guns and canned goods).


    In any event, my only mission is to point out, as I have done repeatedly, that the hard, cold statistics show that gold (or any other metal) is a chronic underperformer versus equity investments over any longer period one wishes to choose. And, the gold buyers can't take solace in low volatility and/or risk, either, as is readily evident by the last year's action. These are simply the statistical, irrefutable facts, take it or leave it.


    I have no problem with individuals holding 5-10% gold, if that makes them sleep better at night, but the gold adherents don't usually present the issues that way. Instead, it's implied that equity gains are some kind of an "illusion," as presented above.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm - thanks for the clarification. FYI - I do not "identify" with the Gold Bug crowd in the sense that I predict world calamity and total collapse of financial markets, etc. Nevertheless, I consider that such events are a remote possibility, such that I consider an insurance investment in precious metals a "no brainer".


    That being said..... to the extent there is a vocal "gold bug" crowd out there, I guess I am suggesting that most of the vocalizers are not really participating in the market in any significant way, other than with their voices.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • "Who puts their money in a tin can under the bed? Maybe, the same kinds of folks who hoard gold, I'm not sure."




    I'm not sure if people put money in a tin can under their bed, I can think of a bit more creative places. I don't get how that might be related to 'hoarding gold' either.


    Anyway, I thought it was common sense prudence to always keep some cash around. The amount is different for everyone but I have read even from the most mainstream advisors that one should have cash on hand, somewhere between a few weeks worth to a few months worth. To not do so seems pretty impractical, to me anyway
    3 Jul 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • "Hoarding is when anybody has a disproportionate share of their wealth in any asset."




    If someone has a disproportionate share (I dunno, 70-90%) of their wealth in stocks, is that hoarding? Or are stocks not considered an asset?
    I'm not being a smartass, I think you have a valid point about hoarding, or being overweight in an asset.
    Just wondering if stocks as a group would be considered an asset and if so, aren't those who invest in them mostly stock hoarders?
    3 Jul 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
    >Nevertheless, I consider that such events are a remote possibility, such that I consider an insurance investment in precious metals a "no brainer"


    Agreed. As a young man, I don't have enough wealth yet to insure, and am still trying to build it. In that sense, unless I'm going to speculate on the price, gold isn't near the top of my list. Yet.


    I figure if the world falls apart before I'm prepared, I'm going to go with the flow. Which means I can't mock the gloomers too badly; I may need a spot in a bomb shelter!
    3 Jul 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • The last 90% "Junk Silver" I sold was @ 21 X face .That was 2100 %.
    Go Figure.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • tam:


    Yes, stocks, themselves, can be subject to over allocation. That's why it's prudent to balance an overall portfolio in common stocks, preferred stocks, bonds, real estate, even gold, etc.


    My original post was meant only to demonstrate that gold hasn't been the world-beater holding that might have been implied in DE's post about the value of silver (dimes).


    3 Jul 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    I understand what u meant by the “illusion “ comment that investors wont sell and I believe i gave u a example that simply is not the case for many .. Please re -read my comments.


    Please don’t lump “congress” in with financial advisors , fed, etc. as not seeing 2007. Once again, this is not 2007, if you dont want to believe that , so be it .
    “Congress “ may be partly responsible for the issues that arose then , and certainly have done everything in their power to get in the way of this recovery.
    However , Believe what u want its past history..


    “the investor is always a day late and a dollar short” - agreed , do u know why ?? Its, primarily because they look at the present situation as you just outlined in multiple paragraphs to indicate how bad everything is.. while they have totally missed the “change’ taking place in the economy..


    A concept that most cannot grasp.. Markets do not trade on absolutes, they trade on change - in this case for the better. If u want facts on that issue that is, please go to Southgents profile , go thru his comments and there will be a slew of facts to support that. Now, its Up to you if you wish to believe, but I submit the market has told us that by virtue of the gains and will continue to tell us that.


    So my answer is simple if one hasn't believed he "change" but instead keeps citing the “events” as cause for disbelief then that investor hasn't participated.


    Back to the average investor, while he/she believes the scenario you laid out in your “more” commentary, they sit and watch , the economy doesn’t “feel good” to them , so many issues - oh my !…. Now when the same investors awake and sees that they are in a real “feel good” mode, sun is out, sky is blue , it will be At that moment that the markets will be in the 8th inning of the game & will be looking at the next “change” . I can hear the cries, (cause i’ve heard them before) how can the market be going down ?, economy is humming , all seems well , how can this be …? But it will be headed down.


    The thesis I suggest is counterintuitive , most investors can't grasp it.. until they see some results.. For those that can't, well we will writing about them for a long time.. Why do u think most advisors get chills when the retail guy comes back in strong?? Its a decent contrary indicator..


    For the record , we are nowhere near the 8th inning, IMO far from it..


    Not sure if i ever stated that i turned negative on economy or equity market. I’ll clarify any misunderstanding..
    In general , I believe the economy will limp along at the 2,5 - 3.5 % level for a while.. No surprise i guess , but i don't necessarily think that is a bad thing. I believe Market can & will tolerate that. At present i am cautious on the market and have said so , picking spots here & there , but for the most part playing “wait & see”...


    I turn my attention to corp specifics and corp earnings , which again have been totally missed and ignored by the folks that wish to concentrate on the “Oh my “ issues.. Before anyone gets the notion that i do not take any of the pressing issues of the day seriously , I do , but put them in context.


    I do that because i saw the fiscal cliff, eurozone, “euro going to par”, bank runs , spanish bonds, Italian Austerity, cyprus, sequestration, debt ceiling , S & P downgrade , etc, etc, come & go , all the while selectively adding to positions on these events ,why ? -- because of the improving fundamentals and earnings of corporations. At some point it has to get back to earnings & profitability.


    The equity market has told us that .. Price action told us that , listen to the "oh MY" or listen to the balance sheets and earnings.


    “Gold in a cyclical bear” , ok , i’ll buy that for now , but i have to add that with the recent price action , in context with my Secular Bull theory, it just may place gold in a "secular bear market" as we speak. In that case it will take years to rebound to the old highs... as stated many times, the parabolic move in Gold now suggests a retrace back to 1,000 or so , (some have it going lower) and remaining in a flattening, basing period.. Just like it took many years to build that base for the big move up , it may take the same period of time to work off the excesses of that parabolic event.. It;s how markets work, Gold is not immune no matter what fundamentals you may wish to “roll out” now.. Does it absolutley have to play out that way , no , BUT , the odds are in favor of that taking place rther than "V" shape event.


    On the equity markets , corrections , more volatility , turbulence yes , however unless there is a change , the LT trend is decidedly up & i believe we have not seen the highs in the S & P.... No major top has been put in yet..


    IMO, any rally in Gold will be a time to trim positions or if a speculator , get out.of dodge.
    For the more aggressive , any rally into the 1300 area may be a time to scale into a short position, (if it ever gets there 1400-1500 will present a very good entry point for a short.
    Not exactly what u may wish to hear , but unless there is a dramatic change , it' s the way I see it..
    3 Jul 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Point taken.
    I think it was Doug who mentioned somewhere another reason to hold gold is as a currency hedge. Should the value of the USD get crunched, not impossible by any means, gold will hold its value better.
    I look at gold the same as cash. You don't buy and sell cash, you keep some for an above mentioned type of emergency.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    Thanks for providing me the numbers; for me gold and silver are countercyclical to the Dow and SP which means when Dow and SP are in a bull market, gold and silver are in a bear market and viceversa; let's not forget that the government was selling its inventory of an estimated 8 billion ounces of silver; even Warren Buffett at one point bought 120 million ounces (about 25% of production) but then he said he sold too soon.
    3 Jul 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, we simply disagree.


    Good luck.
    4 Jul 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tampat, I am dollar bullish AND gold bullish. I think the price of gold will rise in all currencies, just as it has the last 5 and 10 years.
    4 Jul 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • via the guardian:
    2 Jul 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy


    Thank you, maybe there are investing opportunities
    2 Jul 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Good evening... I enjoy this forum very much and appreciate all the information. I am the first to admit I am not a sophisticated market guy but I am trying to learn as much as I can. As mentioned in previous posts I have an IRA left to me by my father with 7 more years before I can touch it. At that point I do not plan to just liquidate it but I will have access to it. My hope is to build it up and take only what I need as I need it so for me it is definitely a very long term investment tool. I do not have a lot of money and being permanently disabled, this IRA is extremely important so all opinions, help and advice are all appreciated.


    I have read in here that several members do not believe averaging down is a wise move. While I agree with that as a general rule for stocks, I believe precious metals are different. Looking through history, metals seem to (as Mike Maloney proclaims) go in cycles. I believe this theory and am confident that we are near the bottom of our present cycle with plenty of upside coming over the next few years. Fortunately, I have time for my investments to grow and in the case of silver, to rebound. When my next IRA distribution becomes available, as long as PSLV is below $10, I plan to buy more so as to bring my average buy in (now at $13) down to or below $11. If PSLV soars from now until November when I gain access to 10% of the IRA I will reevaluate that purchase. As long as it stays below double figures I will likely do something in PSLV.
    Aside from that I have become quite interested in Business Development Companies (BDCs) which pay dividends. I would like to find one or two that I can buy, keep, add to and eventually take monthly dividend payments from. I am not a day trader nor do I do much weekly or monthly. Since I have the IRA as my main source of investment dollars I am long-term pretty much by necessity. My hope is to build upon what I have slowly but surely over the next 10+ years and have that source for income moving forward through my 60s and beyond if I am fortunate to be around that long. If not, it goes to my only son so that is also good reason to build it up.
    I love the idea of using 4,5,6 years to build up some dividend stocks, re-invest the dividends themselves and eventually take the dividends as monthly income. What I worry about most is finding a BSD that I can rely on for a long term investment and dividend generating source. So, I guess the information I am looking for is more or less is... how does one evaluate these BSDs? How can one tell if it is likely going to be around for many years offering good dividends? What are the primary risk factors with these stocks and how can one tell which ones are safer than others?
    FSC has been one to catch my attention already. At only about $10 per share, an 11% dividend and a relatively low risk factor (according to an article I recently saw on SA) .....



    it seems to be a nice option. I just don't know enough to make an intelligent choice at this point.... Any insight to my questions and concerns here in my post are welcome and appreciated. As I have said, this is very much a learning experience for me and at the moment I have 5 months to decided my next step. Each November for the next 7 years I have access to reallocate 10% of my IRA so my hope is to learn and make good moves.
    Thanks in advance....ROS
    2 Jul 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rich:


    Per It's request, the only immediate comment I could offer would be that BDC's are excellent income vehicles, and there are other solid companies with growing businesses and increasing dividends in which to invest. But, I view buying gold or, even worse, silver, as an unpredictable gamble on inert commodities, whose price mostly depends on emotional vagaries, mostly fear. If I were managing a conservative portfolio that I had to husband for my own retirement, or for my children, speculating in metals is close to the very last thing I would do.


    Instead, spread you fund among 30-40 well-researched businesses, across numerous sectors, never over-concentrating in any one name. Then, allow the power of compounding to work to your benefit over the years. It may not sound as sexy, as gold, but it will almost assuredly outperform such speculations over the longer haul.
    2 Jul 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, thanks for taking the time to comment. I decided a while back that silver was going to be a part of my portfolio as volatile as it is. I decided after buying in that if it went south I would consider averaging down one time if the price difference was significant between my first purchase and the next one. Right now it is. I have believed and still believe that silver will rebound in time and since I have at least seven years I am comfortable owning what I already have and making one more purchase. Since I cannot buy physical silver through my advisor and do not wish to move to another I researched alternatives for a while and decided PSLV was a very good choice to represent silver in my IRA.


    Over the past few years reading in here and various other websites I have seen "experts" and "advisors" talk about 10-15% being a good range for PMs in a portfolio. Now that they are down significantly I do not see any reason to change that philosophy even though several of those writers/experts have changed their tune. Seems to me that when it comes to stocks, PMs and other investments there are plenty of fair weather bandwagon jumpers. If you believed PMs were a good long term investment three years ago why is that no longer the case? I consider a long term investment at least three years if not double that so I stick with my outlook on long term silver prices and am still quite comfortable with it being in my IRA moving forward.. In fact, expecting a rebound as I do, it makes sense to buy more. It is simply a plan I decided on over the course of about three years and am staying the course. The end result will be about 15% in my portfolio being silver which is the top end of that range I saw in so many articles.


    My posts have not really been so focused on asking whether or not my decision with silver is correct as much as what else I should do with the other 85%. Call me stubborn but I am very much set on silver being about 15% of the portfolio and I have no reservations or regrets about that. In the end i am confident that will be a positive aspect of my investments. Once I make the next purchase, I am done with silver purchases within the IRA.


    Just a side note, my IRA is primarily invested in two funds, much of which are in companies within the S&P so even as I reallocate 10% each year a majority of the portfolio will remain quite diversified in stocks. Now, my goal is to learn about various other choices moving forward. The funds are extremely conservative and as a result have grown about 2-3% in two of that last three years and zero in another. That is simply not enough over the long haul if I wish to survive. I understand you can't do it all overnight but as I have stated before I have several years and as long as I make good choices moving forward I would like to think I can do much better than 2-3% per year. Granted, some will argue 15%+ in silver is not a good choice but I disagree. With that said, I need to figure out what to do with the rest, one year and 10% at a time.


    I find BDCs very attractive and need to learn more about the best ones and try to figure out how much I want to allocate to those. Does it make sense to buy more of those each year as funds become available? What percentage of a portfolio is good for BDCs? I have no clue but am interested in learning about that. Then, of course, there are other stocks in general. Some have advised me to look at funds that contain several stocks as opposed to buying individual companies. Vanguard is one that has popped up several times. These are the things I need to learn about. My stubborn 15% is going with silver... I need to figure out the rest. Thanks again for your input.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TACK


    Thanks !! Great advice...
    3 Jul 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • @TACK - i'll take the other side of this argument about silver and gold. Yes they are inert and represent the fear trade (deflation or inflation) but they also represent non-sovereign currency.


    Have we forgotten that in 2008 the dow jones was down more than 30%? Gold ended up 5%. I dont believe the financial crisis is over and if people believe that stocks can not drop significantly again, then complacency has truly taken hold of the market and then it is the best time to own precious metals.


    When you buy a company, no matter how well-run, you are buying all kinds of risk. Economic risk, industry risk, company risk, geopolitical risk, etc are all rolled up into that investment. Gold and silver, inert as they may be, offer a very good hedge against all of those things.


    Finally, on a macroeconomic level, it looks like the world is increasing in its geopolitical risk and moving more and more towards companies protecting their own industries as aggressively as possible (trade wars). This is a scenario that could be very harmful to many companies, but is very positive for PM's.


    Throwing PM's to the side in my mind is a sure sign of complacency in the markets, and I dont think markets warrant that right now with all the risks present. Keeping a portion of your portfolio invested in silver and gold would be a wise decision to at least hedge against some significant macro-economic risks
    3 Jul 2013, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • Hebba ,I like the idea of a certain % of storable wealth.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tack ,I just received my 1st dividend check from a company we recently invested in .I know very little about how that is calculated ,but it was 1 Dollar per share. The company (SAI) .This is why I am glad I read what you guys write here,it opens up other opportunity avenues. Doug is right about investments being in different areas,I think Gold & Silver buyers get a bad reputation when they are painted as 1 dimensional investors. It's not usually the case,but I can see how they can be perceived that way. Best Regards.and thanks for your insights as well. Here's an article about the company's split last year.

    3 Jul 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Hebba:


    Many market participants have been beset with what I like to describe as "2008 phobia." This is a typical syndrome that sets in after any historic event, wherein in its aftermath many imagine that its repeat, or worse, is right around the corner. Much of the grousing in SA, no doubt, comes from many, who mistakenly adopted such a view, as they absorbed huge losses from 2008's events, but failed to recoup them, as they imagined 2008 as the new norm.


    Meanwhile, gold skyrocketed for the same reasons, with nary a day going by that we weren't reminded of guaranteed ruinous inflation or global deflationary collapse, all of which would make economic investments worthless and would make all gold investors into King Midas. No doubt, some adept traders made a killing on these abject fears, but for the many --and, I'm sure there were a lot -- who got seduced by gold's charms and piled in later in the game, they've seen their "safe" investment plummet.


    While you mention a loss of memory that market fell recently by over 30%, gold has fallen in the last year by over 30%, already, not some imagined possible future market calamity. Its loss is very real, and many those who saw it as safe have been buried. One can read about them on and between the lines of SA every day.


    There is no security in gold, any more than investing in copper, oil or any other commodity. Its price can and does swing wildly, and its no more transportable that other commodities, either, despite the fantasies of many holders. In a true calamity the greatest challenge of any gold holder would be how to access any of it without losing it all to regulation or force. The supposed security it offers is only ephemeral.


    So, as with most speculative investments, if one can coolly and calmly trade against the sentiment, buying low and selling high, then gold can be a good trade, but that's exactly what it is, a trade. As an investment, all the data shows conclusively that equities, as a class, bury gold in performance over any extended time period.


    And, it's particularly alarming to read in SA of older, fearful retirees having large allocations to gold, or other metals, because these produce no income, so one must be continuously on the right side of trades. Otherwise, one is forced to invade principal constantly to pay expenses. Personally, I have yet to meet the retiree, who successfully lives off of pure capital-gains-oriented trading, rather than on the income generated by investments held for the longer term. Pure traders, who can always time the moves correctly are very rare, and I surmise that most who attempt it to make a living will fail at the endeavor.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tack - great arguments but i'd have to counter.


    1) You are absolutely right that gold as well as any other investment has its time and place. I wont argue with that at all because I completely agree. But right now is gold's time and place - there will be a time to sell but the bullish for gold is the brightest its been since i've been investing in the gold market (around 2004-2005)


    If you are going to be buying stocks right now after 5 years of gains on mediocre data then you are exposing yourself and your money to a great risk. Stocks are not cheap and have a number of headwinds including rising interest rates (they are BAD for stocks), potential trade wars, rising oil prices, and soon rising commodity prices (Commodities will not stay low forever). That does not even include any panic in sovereign bonds that may occur - this morning Euro-area bonds are jumping because of Portugal.


    There are a lot of risks in stocks right now, and even if you own a conservative dividend paying stock, you can quickly lose a year's worth of dividend gains via stock price losses. Stocks are not a riskless investment and can give retirees big losses.


    I'm not even going to go into bonds, because retirees buying them at current prices are going to be having significant losses if interest rates revert to average levels.


    As for gold, actually I would respectfully disagree. Gold's performance has actually been very good over long periods of time. If you take gold from when it was truly floated ($35 - 1971) to today's date ($1250), it has registered annualized gains of a little over 8% - that is not shabby long-term performance and that is through bull and bear markets.


    As for the statement that retirees shouldnt "live off of pure capital-gains-oriented trading", I think thats incorrect. Retirees should care about what the real value of their investments are - not their nominal value. Bonds paying below real rates of interest are actually lowering a retirees income and principal without them even knowing. And yes by selling gold to find retirement means you have less gold - but you also have a higher valuation of the amount you have left. Investors should care about real returns and not nominal returns - living off capital gains or bond interest is irrelevant.


    Finally, gold offers diversification that both bonds and stocks do not offer. A retiree investing in US stocks and US corporate/government bonds may feel diversified - but they still have a great exposure to USD currency risk. As unlikely as it may seem now, the USD does have risk and by not owning gold (an alternative currency) you are completely exposed to that risk. Gold offers investors a hedge to that risk.


    Gold should still have its place in all investor portfolios - the size of the position may vary, but it is much riskier not to own gold these days then to own it.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • heb:


    One more thing with which I must take issue, as I have done constantly in many other posts:


    The only thing all investors must -- in fact, can -- care about is maximizing nominal returns. No investor can predict or control his "real' return, as that's merely a function, computed retrospectively, of discounting by the rate of inflation. Maximizing here-and-now dollars is the whole ball game, the only game.


    Secondly, gold has not been a good long-term performer, despite your stats. It's not realistic to measure gold from 1971, when its actual market value was enormously suppressed by law. Of course, it had a huge jump as soon as those restrictions were removed, so if one wishes to compare actual more recent market-based performance one should look to a later start date. But, if one goes back all the way to 1900, when gold's price was not suppressed, and compares that to the compounded return on equities, gold underperforms almost by a factor of ten, when dividends are included.


    To me, buying gold right now is purely speculative, like betting on the VIX. It's not possible to say it's undervalued based on fundamentals or an income stream because there are none. It's simply a gamble.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • "Its loss is very real, and many those who saw it as safe have been buried."


    Panic selling leads to such losses. I have always lived by the philosophy that until you actually sell, you don't lose a dime.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Hebba,


    I agree with your take on gold and personally, I apply the same ideas to silver. PMs not succeeding as a long-term investment is completely untrue. It comes down to when you buy and when you sell. If you bought in silver roughly four years ago when it was $15/ounce you could have made a killing if you sold several months later at $45. Show me another investment that triples that quickly. Yes, you must be in and out at the right times bu that applies to plenty of investments. Silver went through a four year cycle going from 17 to 47 and now back to 17 dollars an ounce or in the genersl neighborhood. I expect a new cycle to see silver prices up over $50. How long that will take is surely an unknown but those willing to give it a few years are likely to be well rewarded. That said, I do not believe anyone should overload on PMs but I love allocating 10-15% of mine in silver. Although many will argue that 20-25% metals is too high, I am leaning toward adding gold related stocks as well. Since I believe we are near or at a bottom, these purchases not only make sense but can pay off quite well in a short time. All it comes down to is whether or not I am correct about the direction PMs will go in the coming few years. I am willing to put my money where my mouth is and to some degree have already done so.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Any investment is a gamble. It's all relative. You can sit here all day using graphs, history and equations that so called "experts" live by but in the end we don't know any of those will work. In fact, ever since the markets became an online paper free-for-all, very few of the standard "theories" can be considered reliable anymore.
    If there were sure-fire ways to make good money in the market based on theories and historical data, we'd all be rich. Times have changed significantly. I am not saying that intelligent evaluation should be abandoned but when people post that this way or that way is how it should be done in the markets, I must disagree.


    A gamble indeed... investing is a gamble no matter how you slice it.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK


    If you read this would you mind commenting on it?


    2 Jul 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • For your consideration. The first of many:

    2 Jul 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • P.S. Get ready for some new market hysteria over nothing if Egypt's military steps in.
    2 Jul 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Wednesday, July 3, 7:29 AM ET
    The Egyptian military will make a statement at 10:30 AM ET amid reports it is prepping a coup if the government and opposition leaders can't cool the unrest. Egyptian stocks (EGPT) are off marginally today after major gains yesterday.


    Looks like our markets might shrug this off !!!
    3 Jul 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    add the jobs report on Fri, Bernanke talking later in month, rumblings about eurozone again, etc, etc. should all add to volaitilty going forward..


    Opportunities may be presented ......
    3 Jul 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Question: why is despite the crisis in Egypt the WTI-Brent spread shrinking?? US oil should be cheap right now.......I do not get it.
    2 Jul 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Truffle,
    Here is the latest excuse:
    2 Jul 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "Portuguese markets have gone into meltdown as the austerity induced political crisis threatens the government's existence. Local media reported that ministers from the CDS-PP, the ruling coalition's junior partner, are ready to follow their leader and Foreign Minister Paulo Portas out the door after he resigned yesterday. Portas' departure came after Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar quit on Monday. However, PM Pedro Passos Coelho is so far holding firm. The PSI 20 is -6.5%, 10-year bond yields spike to around 8%."


    Austerity can have a nasty effect....Today expect a sell off of the USA market before a long weekend!!


    Thoughts?.. Where's CURLS, PAWS, AND BDU??
    3 Jul 2013, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • And, about the spread, which is now below $4:
    2 Jul 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, I am asking this for myself. Can someone explain the spread, oil prices, Brent oil, and what they are.?


    I read that the spread should be bigger, WHY? That our oil should be cheaper, WHY? WTI ???


    I really never followed oil so I am trying to pick up the pieces here. From the little I understand one is the US oil, while the other is oil from other countries?


    Thanks, I do appreciate a response..
    2 Jul 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • To conduct macro studies for the USA, one must add $6/barrel to WTI at this time. On its own WTI is a very small portion of domestic volume consumed...


    usa oil price components & outlook:
    3 Jul 2013, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • IT
    The spread is the price difference between the Brent and WTI; the spread has been high because the Brent has been higher by about $20-$25; the lower the WTI has made our oil byproducts exports (about $80B) more competetive; there has been an investigation in Europe of oil companies for price fixing (what's new?) and the spread getting smaller might be related to investigation
    3 Jul 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @RIN


    Thanks, now what does WTI mean?
    3 Jul 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • West Texas Intermediate
    4 Jul 2013, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Obviously I have homework to do on this. I have no clue about oil pricing and Brent, WTI, etc.. Guess I will just google and go from there.


    Now if anyone has some good reading material explaining oil please post it on the READING CHAPTER..


    4 Jul 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • oil & gasoline:


    I would add that the reason Brent has been higher than WTI is mainly due to the Stress Premium price component for each being different. Geopolitical and weather issues affect the two continents in different ways. The Libya crisis was mostly an Italy/Europe concern. Still, it drove up American crude by $28 in April 2011 due to the import component.


    The Stress Premium is only $14 today. As the Iran, Syria & Egypt issues wind down this factor will evapourate and the spread with it. The above link includes oil's seven fundamental and non-fundamental price components.
    4 Jul 2013, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @FREDDY


    Please check the link,


    4 Jul 2013, 05:28 AM Reply Like
    4 Jul 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy


    I heard that the Saudis are getting away from using WTI as a standard and use Brent instead; have you heard anything similar?


    thank you
    7 Jul 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Neither, they have used their own blend scale for two years.
    7 Jul 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Wednesday's economic calendar:
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
    8:15 ADP Jobs Report
    8:30 International Trade
    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
    9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
    10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    12:00 EIA Natural Gas Inventory




    It seems this blog quieted down the last few days. I hope a few more comment on any reports that come out tomorrow..
    3 Jul 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "Asian and European (FEZ) stocks fall across the board, weighed down by a kaleidoscope of factors that includes tepid Chinese services PMI, caution ahead of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, massive unrest in Egypt, and trouble in Greece and Portugal. Japan -0.3%, Hong Kong -2.5%, China -0.6%, India -1.4%. EU Stoxx 50 -2%, London -1.6%, Paris -1.6%, Frankfurt -1.9%, Madrid -2.9%, Milan -1.7%, Portugal -6.6%"


    Uh oh !!
    3 Jul 2013, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Wednesday, July 3, 7:00 AM ET
    MBA Mortgage Applications: -11.7% vs. -3.0% last week.


    I think this is getting weaker, am I wrong?
    3 Jul 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • 188K jobs added:


    3 Jul 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • US trade deficit widens:

    3 Jul 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • US jobless claims fall 5000

    3 Jul 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • For those on the (RAD) bandwagon good earning report:


    8:48 AM Rite Aid (RAD) reports same-store sales increased 0.7% during June with its pharmacy outperforming the front end of stores during the month. Total drugstore sales increased 0.2% Y/Y to $1.927B for the period
    3 Jul 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • People buying cars in US:


    8:51 AM AutoNation (AN) announces new vehicles sales of 25,162 in June to mark a 10% increase from last year's selling level. The company's domestic segment paced the gains with a 15% jump to 8,130 vehicles during the month.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Oh, and the concern over Egypt is about the suez canal, which it controls. If it were to be shut down oil, gold and silver would go up.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • The very best thing that could happen is for the Egyptian military to step in a restore some sanity to this "Arab Spring" nonsense, which has been institutionalizing radical Islam throughout the region in the guise of some "by-the-people" libertarian movement.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    That seems to be the trend. The unrest in Turkey and Egypt has been because the government has tried to enforce "sharia" law. No booze, etc. It would seem the common everyday folk, the majority of the population, aren't having any part of it. They want the government to stop concentrating on religion and more on the economy and jobs.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @NOTRUB


    I don't see that happening, but well see...


    Meanwhile earning season has some weakness,


    "Alcoa (AA) is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with a $9 price target, down from $12, at J.P. Morgan, which says AA's efforts to cut costs in its upstream businesses likely will be overshadowed by persistently weak aluminum prices. Outside of a material rise in prices or significantly better investor sentiment, the firm sees few catalysts for AA shares in the near term. AA -2% premarket."
    3 Jul 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • An interesting read, once you get past the opinion and get down to just the facts he does present some good ideas in valuing refiners and how to price in the WTI-Brent spread.




    Basically the premium for Brent was based on the trucking/rail cost of transporting oil in North America. As more and more pipelines come on line that is disappearing, thus the change in spread between WTI and Brent. Long term as the bottlenecks in transport are removed the US will become a net exporter of oil vice the current net importer. Which will also affect the current trade deficits that the US has been running since the 1970s. There are several companies already in the "pipeline" for approvals to set up export terminals in the US. To date only two have been approved. A lot of this has more to do with the government's list of approved countries to export to than the logistics of setting up the terminals. For example, the terminal that was approved in the Gulf of Mexico was already in place for receiving imports of Brent. It is just a matter of reversing the process the load tankers vice unload them. The pipelines from the terminal to Cushing, OK (where the oil reserves are stored are already in place, the flow would just need to be reversed.) It's approval was for export only to countries on the US approved trade partners list. The refiners on the eastern US coast have not developed the infrastructure yet to take advantage of WTI outflows for export. On the US west coast pipelines are under construction but no export terminals have been approved for export, yet.


    Only reason I made the wall of text above is because there are a lot of investment opportunities in the process outlined above. Just have to do your homework to find them.


    Interesting times indeed....:o)
    3 Jul 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • If I recall correctly, legislation dictates only Alaskan & Canadian crude can be exported from US ports.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy,
    For your Consideration:


    The U.S. sends about 120,000 barrels of crude a day to Canada under a Commerce Department license. Congress allows exports from Alaska’s Cook Inlet and for consumption in Canada, along with sales determined by the president to be in the national interest.



    US exports by destination:



    2013 export to China:


    LNG exports
    DOE approves LNG exports to non free trade countries:

    3 Jul 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @NOTRUB


    Do you feel your above post belongs in the READING section as well? If so would you mind copying it and pasting for me?


    3 Jul 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @NOTRUB


    Educate me here. So are you saying that not too far in the distant future we will be oil independent on other countries like the Middle East?


    If so what is the timeline?


    Reason I also ask this question is a lot of talk has been electric cars, the TOP blog on SA is all about a company called AXION who basically have developed batteries to run trains instead of fuel or coal or electric. So will their still be a real need for these other options besides saving the universe??


    3 Jul 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • US oil independence is over twenty years away ... too far away to avert a probable auto sector crisis in 2024 when gasoline price surpasses permanently the Light Vehicle Sales Barrier ($4.11/gal). IMHO, there is insufficient time for legislators, manufacturers & policy makers to have the infrastructure in place for a dominant non gasoline/diesel fleet. It is likely the sales pace of new cars and light trucks will plunge by 2 million units/yr.


    LVS Barrier chart:
    3 Jul 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FREDDY


    Thanks for the info. That chart looks like my heartbeat when I go up a fight of


    You are the King of info it seems on this.
    4 Jul 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • 10:32 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -10.3M barrels. Gasoline -1.7M barrels. Distillates -2.4M barrels
    3 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Service sector growth slows to three-year low in June: ISM

    3 Jul 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Were hitting on all cylinders though? I really see a very slow grinding small recovery. Am I missing anything guys??
    3 Jul 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Perhaps all the real question is how many are there in the engine. Certainly not 8 - 10 or 12.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Just so you all know...I am overly aggressive in my comments right now to push people into defending their positions now matter what they say. CoinsK, F&G, Freddy and Tack (although that was a mistake), have experienced this.


    I am doing so in preparing to write my next book beginning the middle of this month when I go into seclusion. I just am putting the last pieces of the puzzle together.


    Appreciate the feedback and honesty from which you all write.


    We all have the same goal with our investments, to maintain purchasing power and profit. My only goal is to give the best information for investors to utilize in doing so.


    Doug Eberhardt
    3 Jul 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    I have the same goal (giving info to investors), have no problem with anyone challenging my approach,


    I put the "noise" aside , At the end of the day its about increasing wealth..
    My comments are here for all to see.


    Readers and investors can take that info ,check results and come to their own conclusions ..
    3 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, wish you would provide more links to what you have said in the past, that's all.


    Happy 4th!
    4 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    simply go to my profile and scroll thru my comments.. believe you will find my message has been consistent,


    If that is not enough, you certainly know my positions on the markets as of the last month or so :) & I now understand your theory and position on the markets as well.


    Respectfully you are on Venus and I am on Mars, on macro trends the economy , fed and markets .. :)


    Bottom line , increase wealth over a period of time .. I'll let u know when my theories change, I hope u will do the same :)


    Best of luck in your endeavors !
    4 Jul 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Doug


    Do we get royalties for our help?? lol
    3 Jul 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • IT wrote:
    Do we get royalties for our help?? lol"


    It's OK Doug i like an intense discussion as long as it doesn't get too personal .I used to like that ,but not anymore :). Just mention us in your book and send me a 1 OZ. of any brand .LOL I appreciate your posts very much.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @COINS


    I am with you as far as the discussions go. People should have a conviction to their methods of investing. Trust me people are learning a ton reading along. I know I am !!


    But I won't mind an ASE in the mail either....
    3 Jul 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • IT, I gave you all the advice I could in the PM, haha! You are on a good path! My extra money will simply to to my passion, my 3rd book, which is a Christian/Political book I have been working on for the last 7 years called, "We the Serfs!"


    ConisK, one ounce of copper is yours! :-)
    4 Jul 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • We The Serfs?
    I like the title.
    4 Jul 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • ConisK, one ounce of copper is yours! :-)


    1909 S mint vdb Wheat cents?
    Have a great Independence Day everyone.
    4 Jul 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • IT, this week lots of people will be in vacation mode this week.


    Egypt is now celebrating because the military has taken over. What will happen to Morsi? In spite of this Egyptian turmoil, US markets ended up. Portugal & Greece are roiling the EU markets (again!). The next couple of months will present some opportunities for investors shopping for bargains.


    (BUD) is well off its highs down to $87 and change today. (STZ) just bought Modelo from (BUD) which is interesting. I like both of these companies.


    (NDLS) came down to earth a little today. Went over $51 after the IPO just 3 days ago...from $38 to closing at $45 today.


    I like American Realty Corp. (ARCP) with its 6.28% yield. If you don't own it, you might want to look into it. I've been accumulating a small position, since it's still falling in price.


    Plenty of good stocks out there, and we should see some of them getting a little more affordable on pullbacks. I like (SBUX), (WFC), (UNH), (UTX), (LMT), (HON), (MCK), (MCD), (BGS), (IBM), (SDRL), (KKD), (DNKN), (BP), (LVS), (JPM), (WFM), (BAC), (F), (AIG). If I don't own them, I'm looking for a pullback to buy them. Just this am I was adding to positions.


    I've still got a ton of cash, so I'm spreading out purchases over the next 4 months. It may get ugly but that's the best time to buy.


    Have a great 4th of July everybody.


    ****as far as the gold/silver argument goes, to each his own. Depending on your portfolio goals, I'd much rather have a bond or stock that contributes income (bonds) and income + growth (stocks) while you hold them. Problem with the metals is knowing when to sell. Commodities are doing very badly right now, risky to put your money in them. Different investment strategies mean there will always be some who prefer to hold gold/silver no matter what.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Thanks for all those stocks for people to take a look at. I am sure you have some sites or reading material that you could add to the READING CHAPTER I put together as a source for info in the future.



    Enjoy the holiday !!
    3 Jul 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Happy 4th to everyone!!!


    I've been off on "important matters" but am intrigued by all the high-level debates of ideas going on... I'll be reading them all.


    On a light-hearted note - are there any stocks selling fireworks that go up this time of year?
    3 Jul 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • I damn well hope you all realize that it's my birthday tomorrow, and that's why it's a national holiday! :-)
    3 Jul 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TACK


    Happy Birthday , Your 29 correct? How many Cabana Girls will you have taking care of the yacht tomorrow?
    3 Jul 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    Uh gold and silver?? Let the fireworks start again !! lol
    3 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,


    Happy birthday !
    3 Jul 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • IT:


    I had to fire a couple after the recent weakness in yield stocks. :-)
    3 Jul 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Happy Birthday to you and to our country ! If you get a chance could you tell me what you think of this company ? (SAI) Thanks.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Coins:


    SAI is not a company I follow or am other familiar with. taking a brief look, the one thing that jumped out at me was that earnings appear a bit lackluster, and with a yield below 4%, that would make it a question mark for me, just on the surface. But, as I said, not my area of expertise.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TACK


    No, fire the girls?. You should have fired the bait guy! :)


    I would have mailed you some silver to hold them over if you needed it.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks just the same.
    4 Jul 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Ah, the old market timer strategy :)
    3 Jul 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • I officially call the nonsense on WTI: short UCO via October $33 puts. WTI belongs to 85.....or less.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TRUFFEL


    I had posted above for someone to explain this issue in layman's terms as some really don't understand it all yet. Like I said I am new to oil and the difference between the two as well.


    So if you find the time could you explain why you feel the way you do? I know quite a few understand you, while quite a few don't.


    Lets call it an exercise for us dummies leaning on some experts!


    3 Jul 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • That really sounds like a good play Truffle.
    3 Jul 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • @IT - there is not much to explain. (a) The supply is NOT endangered and Mursi is now gone in Egypt -> $6-$8 premium down. (b) The glut in the US is not really gone -> a little more down. Multiply the about 8-10% correction x 2 because I am leveraging a double ETF should result in some 20% gain for me.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TRUFFEL


    Mind giving out that symbol for folks to follow?
    4 Jul 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like



    3 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • @ Interesting Times


    Thank you for your comments... much is thought provoking, and this healthy for vigorous discussion. In the past, prior to my exodus as a contributor, I posted my sentiments on the projected movement in the PM markets.


    I at this moment believe we are nearing the inflection point when these markets will reverse direction, and correct to the mean. My reasoning is the markets are shifting, into a different direction, in order to seek long term protection from the depreciation in traditional assets. Specifically, we are currently watching the "roll over" in the bond markets. The traditional buyer of these instruments, were seeking safety, but now realize bonds are the least safe of all havens, as rates are beginning to rise, and bond values are depreciating. The lofty valuations of equities is placing fear into many who have chosen this haven as the safest place to park their wealth.


    With the massive depreciation of PM investments, those seeking safety, in hopes of appreciation, will soon begin to show an interest in the PM and take a position. I look for significant movement in this market this fall, and a likely bottom in Gold at the $1150 price level.


    Reversion to the mean, with inter-market catalysts in play, will jump start the PM markets, in the not too distant future.
    7 Jul 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • 1234.


    I can buy into your comments about Gold, possibly headed down to 1150 - my target was around 1000 , close enough..


    However.. i wonder if after reverting to the mean as you suggest, investors will view Gold as a "safe" place, in Light of the percentage drop we are now witnessing.. IMHO , other than the "diehards" there will be plenty of folks (speculators, etc.)who will view any rallies as an opportunity to pare their losses , get out and therefore keep the pressure on the sell side, for a while..


    I agree with your scenario on the "bond" crowd, and when we have that market correction , many will be out in force to tell us all again why stocks are evil-- LOL.


    IMO , the 64,000 question for Gold wil be your view of a "safe" place..


    Right now i'm not so sure -- The Gold "bear" market has just begun, can it reverse in the not to distant future as you comment. ?


    Just some thoughts..
    8 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Any fantasies about gold being a "safe" holding have already been squashed. So, now, it's future is more based on the classical view of it being an inflation hedge. However, with interest rates and the dollar rising at a much faster pace than economic growth or inflation, the likelihood of any runaway inflation in the intermediate term is practically zero.


    All of which raises the question: what's the impetus for buying gold?
    8 Jul 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • "Reversion to the mean, with inter-market catalysts in play, will jump start the PM markets, in the not too distant future."


    ...and that is why patience (if holding PMs) is so important. I simply can't understand anyone selling metals at this point. Company stocks can slide and never recover so sometimes it makes sense to get out on the way down but PMs will always have value and likely rebound as their very volatile history shows us again and again. Unless someone is very talented in short term PM investing, I see no reason to invest in PMs unless going long and if you go long then you have to expect prices all over the place.


    The old adage "you don't lose money in the market until you actually sell" is particularly relevant with metals. Hold and wait and PMs shall set you free!
    8 Jul 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • PMs always bounce back making this time a priceless time to buy. Remember the summer of 2013 5+ years from now when everyone is saying "if only I bought some back then." RIGHT NOW is "back then"
    8 Jul 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • rich:


    That's an adage you should resign to the dust bin, and fast. One's net worth is measured daily, whether in cash, gold, securities or all the above.


    I know a gentleman, who co-founded a growth-happy European liquor distributorship, whose shares went from single digits to over $80 each. He had a 9-digit net worth at the peak. I don't know when he sold all of his remaining shares, but they currently trade for $0.07 each, after the firm's bankruptcy.


    You think he'd be saying he didn't lose any money if he didn't sell?
    8 Jul 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack


    Seriously, you think the US$ is rising? against what countries' currency, the euro, the yen, and the british pound which make up most of the dollar index, and are the weakest currencies?; so the US$ is going up against a bunch of losers and the USD trend is still going down; the USD index has to break above 90 before it reverses its downtrend; going up to 84 or 85 for a day does not make a trend; on inflation, inflation is there but since most goods are imported we don't see it; what do you think you have cost overruns on defense programs? material costs, my friend
    8 Jul 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rin:


    If you're responding to my previous post, above, I don't care which way the dollar is going, or the cost of tuna sandwiches, for that matter. If one has huge gains and doesn't realize them, then one is foolish. It's silly to think that holdings don't have real gains or losses until such time as they are realized. They have assigned values each and every day, and one can make or lose that money by just watching it.


    Apparently, you're trying to make a sales pitch for gold, I suppose, but the market has been telling you you are mistaken. Low inflation and rising interest rates are not a formula for a gold surge. It's just the way it is, and it makes complete sense, too.


    Gold had a near hysterical run-up, based on fear and a wrong-haded analysis of QE, and like all investments that get way ahead of themselves on momentum, rather than fundamentals, the party ends. Those that bought early and hit the sell button pocket nice gains; those that generate self-fulfilling justifications for holding a falling asset usually regret it.
    8 Jul 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, over time, gold maintains its purchasing power and all fiat currencies end up buying you less. One blip on the chart doesn't mean anything to those who own the insurance that gold provides. They're not selling. Also, many are also invested in the stock market, own real estate and drink scotch whiskey all night long.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,


    Look hard enough and you can find examples on both sides of that "coin." I stand quite firm on the rule of thumb that you don't lose until you sell, especially with PMs. I DID say that with stocks it is not quite the same because unlike PMs, stocks do not necessarily retain value all the time - can you say Enron? PMs, and for me silver in particular retain value at some level all the time. Its a matter of whether or not you believe it will rise again... I have no doubt it will. Physical silver, ASEs in particular have been selling at record rates this year. Silver is still used abundantly in industry and from alI I read is becoming more rare by the minute... yet it drops in price... can you say manipulation? Or how about the onslaught of electronic trading by the millions per second?.... all of these things seem to have changed the face of the market in general and definitely affect PMs significantly. I can see the day trader, weekly trader or even monthly trader looking at silver much differently but with my particular situation I literally can't touch my portfolio (the IRA) for at least seven more years so why panic, especially with something like silver? Silver has rebounded over and over again (and yes, plunged over and over again)... time and patience are strong factors in making money here. God willing I have time and patience is forced upon me in the form of 7 years. Yes I can sell within the portfolio but I choose not to. Silver at $50 per ounce is something I fully expect to happen within those seven years and hopefully it goes higher. In fact, I expect to see that within three years, but I have seven if I need it.
    So, to refer back to the original comment, "you don't lose money in the market until you actually sell" is very much appropriate to silver and definitely to my own long-term investment in it. I am absolutely convinced that this year will be referred back upon several years from now with people saying... "remember when silver and gold were all the way down there... if only I had grabbed some then."
    Time will tell. By the end of this year I look to have about 15% in my IRA represented by silver. That has been my plan for a couple years now and remains the same. That stays no matter what... I am now looking to learn about other options for the other 85%... but thanks for your opinion.... I truly respect it very much but in this case I just don't agree with it.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • @Tack


    Your analysis is well stated, however I do disagree with the thesis Gold has lost its "safe haven" status.


    In reality, it is the various sovereign fiat currencies that have lost their safety, as they are in a state of mass dilution. You have stated most accurately the lack of inflation, and I do agree. This situation is temporary, as the rate of dilution of currencies in much of the world, will at some time develop into inflationary forces. This is historically supported by so many examples of this practice.


    I therefore believe the many, who understand this historical "end game", will soon begin to accumulate Gold for long term safety against the effects of currency devaluation.


    Price, time and government policy will identify the moment when this sentiment will mature to the point Gold will appreciate in value.
    9 Jul 2013, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,Read my post @12:00 7/10/13 , it will provide why Gold holders are not fantasizing ,and they are anything but "squashed"
    There are many reasons for the average person to buy Gold & Silver. I don't want to copy and paste the post(that would be redundant and IT would not like it). I just wrote it a few minutes ago so if you would just read it at the bottom of the page you might see that there are many good reasons for "Regular" folks to own Silver and Gold..
    9 Jul 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • So Tack ,by that logic all the folks that hold mutual funds should sell since the Dow (Which is shadowed by MF's) ,is at it's high points since 2008.
    8 Jul 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Coins:


    That depends on whether you think you're a trader or an investor and how your overall portfolio is balanced. That's the difference between issues that pay dividends or other yield and issues, like metals or non-yielding stocks, which depend entirely on price movements to achieve gains. A portfolio balanced between common, preferreds, and debt issues can usually weather changing conditions and keep cranking out the yield, which can be spent, as needed, or reinvested to compound returns.


    Whether one should sell anything, or not, depends on how those gains appears versus historical norms. Gold had a rather hyperbolic run-up, so it has been more exposed to returning to normative values, while stocks are less out of line versus their histprical P/E ratios, etc.
    9 Jul 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • I agree with your point Tack. I totally admire you folks that can think ahead of the markets and make decisions to prosper from those changes that constantly occur. My hat is off to you,sincerely. The point you might want to consider is that Millions are stuck in 401K plans with mutual funds that they can't have any control of. And nearing retirement they are just going to have to hope they can get their money out before someone else does. That's exactly why they need something besides paper investments,it's all they have and it's all controlled by the performance of the Dow.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rich, Coins,1234,Doug,


    Does anyone acknowledge that Gold is in a bear market ?


    Millions are stuck in 401K's ? , please elaborate for me..not sure i understand that comment.


    Buying Gold as an insurance policy will help those that are "stuck " , when their funds supposedly vaporize ? Sorry , IMO no historical data to support that anyone was "saved" by not having the supposed insurance policy..
    9 Jul 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, cyclical bear, secular bull. Unless of course you don't count the last 12 years of rising prices.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    Let me reply with the remark i get from the perma bears,
    If you haven t sold u haven't made a dime,


    The last 12 years u cite , is very important, as the price back then just may be the resting place for the price of Gold when the dust settles..reversion to the mean may actually be around $400 , the price from where gold broke out of its base ...
    First we have to see if can get back to 1300 , before the sellers come back


    Just a thought


    9 Jul 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, that's a true statement, sure. The financial advisors are all taught the same mantra of buy and hold. You personally may be different as you mention you hedge with options, but I don't even think LPL, who has more financial advisors than any other outfit allows such. My CFP friend who works for LPL can't even do a 3x leveraged ETN for himself.


    One thing I don't understand from those who are so negative on gold is they don't ever mention the word "debt" in their rebuttals. I've seen what you have written (in other posts today) and I don's see the word debt anywhere. It's as if the Keynesian professors have succeeded in teaching those who dictate economic policy that debts and deficits don't matter.


    That is, until they do (see Japan whose production just hit a 14 year low) and has full permission by the G20 to weaken the Yen.


    The financial sector and banks may be doing well now. I mean, they are given money to loan and have instead used it for their own gains, so why shouldn't they be doing well? But we all know the track record of these leaches and I can guarantee they will screw it up again. But this time, I hope we're smart enough to let the bad ones fail just as any business that screws up deserves to fail.


    Speaking of reverting to the mean, when will the debt revert to the mean?


    Until that is addressed, you own gold. Black Swan events can come from a multitude of places and I suspect Europe will be the area that ignites it with a snowball effect elsewhere. It's a little insurance with a high probability of paying off. If it doesn't, then you have the 80% to 90% in what you tell people to invest in that I hope they do well in. But the data I see doesn't bode well for them. The data eventually wins out despite present euphoria.


    It's ok that we disagree.


    Naturally we write to try and help others.
    9 Jul 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    Only way i can respond to the question u raised on debt.


    Haven' t we heard about the "debt" , & the impending crisis that may ensue since QE started.. ? Where is the equity market ?
    Now if one wants to say it will all come to an end , that's fine, their belief, but in the meantime from inception of QE , has that person created wealth ? I think not.. There will be time to trim holdings , if u want to say that no one saw 2008 , well the charts did , ever look at the S & P coming straight down ? Ironically it is the same chart pattern that is now present in Gold, it is in a bear market , the signs are there , now its just a matter of where it settles.


    So the "debt" question while it can't be ignored it needs its proper place at this moment in time , on the shelf.. --


    Wasn't Europe going to take us down? , debt ceiling ?, S & P downgrade ?, sequestration, tax hikes ? Cyprus? just a month ago it was the Japanese stock market that was going to domino the world markets ? (by the way have u seen the Nikei lately ?) are these different from the "debt" worries , I simply state that those who used those examples to get out of US stocks , have missed a nice rally..
    I am reminded daily that its all gonna end badly.. In the meantime savvy investors have set up nice income portfolios and booked profits along the way.
    I'm staying the course - LT trend is up .. 
    9 Jul 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • well said ... the media noise purposely creates uncertainty, volatility and ratings.
    9 Jul 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, the QE was simply swallowed up by the Deflationary Credit Contraction which I wrote about in my book, Chapter 4 where I DISAGREED with the mainstream Austrians. Bernanke has been fighting DEFLATION with his failed bouts of QE, HOPING for the economy to recover, but it hasn't. The excess funds went to the banks who in turn didn't lend, but bought equities, speculated in Real Estate, growing those bubbles again.


    Financial advisors didn't see 2008 coming. Not even close. They aren't trained in economics for one, and mostly of the same mantra of buy and hold. You may be an exception.


    You would make a good Congressmen by saying to "put debt on the shelf." Boy...sure wish the average business owner Joe could do that while trying to stimulate their business.


    Regarding Europe, look at their currency and what the ECB did just today. They are being held together by an IMF band aid. Since when does anything the IMF do help out the countries they interfere with? Ask Iceland.


    They are still rioting in Greece:


    The Spain economy has shrunk 7 straight quarters;


    S&P cuts Italy’s credit rating to two levels above junk


    Portugal may re-ignite Europe crisis


    The IMF makes debt slaves of the inhabitants (see Jamaica Inc. docu) just like the Fed is making debt slaves of all our children and grand children. You don't think interest rates will stay this low forever do you? At some point the piper has to be paid. Just this little blip up in interest rates has the Fed board members scrambling. You don't see that? I provide the data of "what's happening now." I let people interpret what I write and make decisions accordingly as to whether or not gold would be good "insurance" for their portfolio. Don't let the media sway your thinking.


    Regarding Japan, you can't compare them to us. Look at the long term Nikkei chart. What are they, 1/4 of the way back from the highs? Record Debt to GDP ratio only held together by a "past" net importing economy. They will be net sellers of U.S. treasuries at some point and the end game for them will have arrived.


    I still leave 80% to 90% for the "professionals," but don't tell me all is rosy and there's not underlying issues everywhere and that gold and silver won't give investors a little peace of mind...just in case your "stay the course" blows up by some seen or unseen Black Swan event.


    Enjoy discussing this with you nonetheless. We both fight for what we believe in as you pointed out before.
    9 Jul 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • The real meaning of "debt" was camouflaged by the SEC's complicity in allowing the banks to defer "mark-to-market". And as a result, the market (stock) has ignored debt. Now either the reasons for not marking to market get resolved through profitability, or they just get kicked down the road.
    9 Jul 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    enjoy the discussion, but the links you provide cement my case.. All known issues that can surely be resolved According to the naysayers , the euro was going to "par" , Greece is leaving the euro , on and on and on...


    As far as prof. money managers not seeing 2008 coming , well agreed nobody saw it , but when the markets started to fall 20% or so indicating bear market territory there were plenty of money managers that reacted.. trim holdings , raise cash. It's simple risk management..
    Not saying i went to 100% cash but did take defensive posture, had funds to live another day .. Speaking along those lines I really never hear that from the proponents of PM's. Never hear anyone saying to trim positions after big moves, now not hearing anyone say its a bear market. It could go lower -- trim holdings.. By the way that should have been done @ 1500 - if one were applying risk management policies. Instead I hear its 1300, it will come back. My guess it will be said at 1,000 . For those that did not hedge their PM exposure or trim positions this could very well end badly. Especially if they are hanging their hats on the headlines that to date have been "noise"


    Instead , I constantly hear that all will end badly for equities -- a blip up in rates and the markets will fall apart , that's what i heard a short week ago..-- all was about to end-- the cycle of this low rate environment is over.. Prepare for higher rates... Sell ,Sell !! ----Here is a brief headline for all those that might be interested ---the Russell 2000 just made an all time historical high today. Somehow it got over a 10 yr @ 2.7% !
    Amazing isnt it ! Sure rates will normalize , sure it will be a change , doesn't mean the end of the equities markets, we haven't survived a normalized rate environment and had decent stock returns? The div payers can grow profits, increase their payouts , at the end of the day that's how one can add wealth ..


    The naysayer's and their arguments about Greece, Spain , Debt issues , et al , ad nauseam , Instead , as I have stated for a while - watch & listen to what the market is telling you .. Avoid the "noise"


    My point about Japan was not a comparison to us, but rather a simple point that the headlines that were bandied about, stated that the Nikeii plunge was the precursor for world market declines. Another headline that was "noise"
    9 Jul 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • WM:


    There is so much misinformation stated in SA, as if it were fact, that it's hardly any wonder that few understand the monetary or banking system. For example, "mark to market" is a poster child.


    Banks never marked their not-for-sale debt holdings to market until the financial accounting board decided in 1997 that that would be a good idea, not ever seeing how easily the debt market values could be gamed by shortsellers, like Goldman Sachs, merely by creating a faux index for debt issues that had no real market and were ridiculously thinly traded. That's precisely what occurred in 2008, when Goldman invented the ABX inex, which became the de-facto yardstick for measuring subprime debt. Then, Goldman set about shorting the index into oblivion.


    But, that wasn't where the big bucks were made, i.e., shorting ABX, which had relatively light volumes and a small market. No, they made the huge killing by shorting all the bank shares, which Goldman realized would have to report catastrophic writedowns on the debt, as per the ABX.


    It all worked perfectly, but had no bearing whatsoever on the actuarial values of that and other debt on the books of the banks. That's been proven by the dramatic recovery in values of that debt, some to benefit the banks, themselves, but much more to benefit various funds that rushed in to buy the debt from panicked banks for pennies on the dollar.


    Mark to market was simply gamed, and using it was reversed, as it should have been. The banking system had existed for eons without it, and if it had been absent in 2008, likely, we would have avoided the uncontrolled panic that ensued.
    9 Jul 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, those article prove my point that there are systemic problems with the system in these countries and unlike the U.S., can't print there way out of it!


    I understand what you are trying to say about many in the gold field. I counter it by simply saying gold is insurance and part of a diversified portfolio that one allocates a position to. People right now should be taking profits from their stocks and allocating it to precious metals to balance out their portfolio.


    I have said many times in my articles, investing in gold is the tortoise (gold) vs. the hare (debt) and the outcome of that race is known. The Humpty Dumpty economy will see to it. But I still think the bigger cracks are in Europe.
    9 Jul 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    i think in the opposite direction at this point in time ,, trim gold positions, wait until there are signs of a bottom,, i've said all during the rise to harvest profits, ( i rarely stray from that premise in any market) but keep core holdings in place for income,, add on any major pullback..


    Plenty of issues , but Europe may be in better shape than u think,,, & as stated in many missives , corp. balance sheets are in the best shape in recent memory.. there are no cracks there.. & they have done it with Europe in turmoil... What many are missing is the improvement as to where we were.. That's why the market is where it is today , when europe & other issues are solved the markets will be headed down ,, & most will ask -- why ??


    market psychology at work.. embrace the concept or be left behind ..
    - ever wonder why the "retail" guy is always left in the dust ??
    Or decides to get in at the top.. ??


    I've seen it for decades.. One can create wealth if they can embrace this counter intuitive principle..


    9 Jul 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • @FG


    " when europe & other issues are solved the markets will be headed down ,, & most will ask -- why ?? "


    So why then, if the market today is based on good balance sheets & growth?
    9 Jul 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Curls ,
    Just tried to prove a point about market psychology,, when all is well and there are seemingly no issues, the market will have topped, as it looks ahead and possibly anticipates the next "change" . At that point, things are wonderful , can they get any better ? - maybe not -- the market then anticipates and moves lower...


    present market is at these levels because of balance sheets & earnings , even with all the doom & gloom surrounding us. The market saw the "change " as a positive one from the depths of where we were and has rallied in the face of the negatives..


    With all of the doubters and pervasive negativity, we are nowhere near any major top .


    Take those examples and say to yourself when do I want to invest, when all is rosy ? that's the average retail investor buying at the top


    Why is the average retail investor sitting on the sidelines? they are saying ,all is horrible I can't invest now , why is the market going up ?


    They have bought into the gloom & doom but haven't embraced the change from where we were , but the market anticipated that and now is reflected in its current price.. .


    Counter intuitive , therefore , difficult to embrace.
    9 Jul 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting to read two completely different views on gold. I understand why Fear has the attitude that we should wait for a bottom but that also seems like common sense... if we knew what the bottom was. I do not believe you can read a graph and tell when a bottom is upon us or everyone would do it. I believe now is a great time to buy PMs because prices have already dropped significantly and by most accounts i have read during the plunge, the levels we are at are perhaps a bit lower than expected. Even if this isn't the absolute floor I can't imagine we are not close. With that as my belief, seems logical to buy for a long-term hold. Unless there is evidence that PMs will not rebound over the next few years I have a hard time arguing against buying some for a long term portfolio.
    I suppose day traders or lets say frequent traders may argue that their money can do better elsewhere right now and if you are one of those who can perfectly time the bottom of gold or any PM then I admire and envy you. However, I have yet to meet such a person.
    9 Jul 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • F&G


    Thanks, I can understand your explanation. Specifically the " when all is well and there are seemingly no issues, the market will have topped, as it looks ahead..."


    I hadn't thought of the trigger that way. That's seems insightful to me.
    9 Jul 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Rich,
    for a comparison, the people who bought CSCO back in the go go days, @ 40 -45 after it had dropped from the 70 area , watched their stock drop to the lower teens stay in a trading range for a decade and is now 25 .. They echoed your same words..


    My belief that Gold will drop and then flat line for years come from some of those same principles - Gold is not immune to such action..


    At least with CSCO we can assign some general rules to come up with a "price" . I have no such tool with Gold -- only sentiment & emotion..


    The only way to try and set a price for Gold is a chart . No guarantees of course , but it applies certain historical metrics that can be used .


    Now if u go back to where Gold broke out of its 10 yr trading range - its around $400 .. No rule that says Gold can't retrace this entire move and go all the way back there..


    U r right no one can call the bottom until it actually takes place , searching for one however can be hazardous to one's financial health.


    10 Jul 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • F&G:


    And, as opposed to gold, at least if one sits on CSCO for ten years with no appreciable price move, one still makes a 30% compounded return merely by reinvesting the 2.7% dividend. Yield can ameliorate a lot of sins, over time, and it does so even faster at higher yields.
    10 Jul 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,


    Absolutely , another fact that is often forgotten.
    10 Jul 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • F&G ,Another forgotten fact is most people that I deal with buy and then sell gold when they want to convert to other things.That's because they are great at saving money,and they do it with gold & silver quite often. They are not traders in the market but they do know what works for them. Many a homebuilder has kept his business going without "Hardmoney" loans because he put back some of his profit into precious metals for a rainy day. It's a fluid market ,not at all stagnant. It helps the economy when people sell gold and buy autos and 2cnd homes etc.
    OTOH ,Mutual funds that people have stuck in their 401ks are the opposite in many cases,people can't get out of let's say a Dodge & Cox type fund,unless they want to dump it into a non-performing asset like a money market fund. and their money is tied down ,tied up until they are 60 years old.
    10 Jul 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Meanwhile, gold up again after Fed shows true colors. Silver too.


    No one saw that coming, right?


    Fed Officials Showed Worry About Easing Policy


    Off to Vegas for FreedomFest.
    10 Jul 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • I guess we agree to disagree. I have 10% of my IRA in silver and will add to it this November. There may not be a graph that tells you where silver is going but using basic common sense helps here. Silver is not becoming more common by the day, it is being used and as a result becoming more rare. That plus the amazing record purchases of ASEs are both indicators that silver is good to have especially if you can plan on holding it for several years.
    As for samples like CSCO or any other stock, hindsight is 20-20 and when silver is $50/oz, better than double what it is today, everyone will be saying what a great investment it was for those who bought it up in the sporing/summer of 2013.


    While I appreciate those taking the time to offer an opinion on my interest in silver, none will change my mind as i believe the 15% in my IRA by the end of this year will be a profitable investment in the not too distant future.


    I am really much more interested in where I can put the other 85% as I move into each November. BDCs is definitely a consideration but I'd also like to find a few decent stocks or funds. Vanguard keeps popping up as a good fund.
    11 Jul 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • F& G ,2008 proved my assertion . .Private ownership of your wealth ,in my opinion,is paramount with the government that we have. That's why Gold was the "Store of Wealth" during the 2008 crash.Meanwhile many of the co-workers at SAIC lost upwards of 50% of their 401k plans in the Mutual funds they had recently converted to from their retirement plan. They had virtually no say in the transfer of their stock from a private stock EOS . It really wouldn't have saved them anyway with the crash in the fall of the market in 2008. Their ONLY alternative was Money Market funds at less than 1% interest.YUCK.
    I have posted many comparisons (links)between the stock market and Gold from 2007 to 2009 ,there is no denying which acted as a safe haven during that period of time.


    Here's the google link for the Capps Law contained in "Obama care"


    Have you heard the term used "Nationalizing" 401K's ? It's in there ! So millions will be lost to the government to prop up Social security and Obama care.I sat at the table with our 3rd District Congressman recently and asked him about it. He sighed and stated that "Obama care" allows this administration to do unprecedented things to people's retirements,pensions ,401k's It's a lost cause IMHO,they will never let people have a retirement plan that they will be able to control their own money with again,the era of freedom is over. Have you read the "Affordable" Care Act?


    I have a few friends that have. It's ominous and open ended,they make it up as they go.They have what it takes to take what we have.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    The major thing that keeps me away from gold, other than it pays no income, is history. The government confiscated, made it illegal to hold, gold in 1933 until 1971. What is to keep that from happening again?
    9 Jul 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub, I am not in the confiscation camp and even was instrumental in one gold dealer no longer being able to use the word "confiscate" (as dictated by the Santa Monica city attorney) in trying to get buyers to purchase pre-1933 coins they claimed wouldn't be touched by any future confiscation because of their "collector" value.




    If the government wanted to go after anything today, they can do it with the stroke of a pen via executive order. But they won't knock on everyone's door like census takers and ask; "do you have any gold?" Especially with the 2nd amendment still in effect.


    They do have control over all 401ks/Pension Plans and IRA's where they could nationalize them or dictate via their IRS arm what can and can't be done with them. This can be accomplished with no real effort..."in times of emergency."


    Not saying it would occur, but they aren't going to come after the People's gold again like 1933.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Speaking of Obama care. A friend works at UPS and has been told that because of this new TAX that if your wife works and can be covered by HER insurance that the individual MUST take her off his family plan.


    Now this adds something new that isn't discussed much. Both people now have a new contribution to make, even if one plan has better coverage you cannot take advantage of that.


    So I see a possible financial drag on the economy as now that household has 2 people who have to contribute to their insurance which will leave LESS money to spend on other items.


    Am I off base here>
    9 Jul 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    They didn't come knocking door to door in 1933. They just passed a law to make it illegal to have it. Thus the only way you had of using the gold you had was to 1) Sell it to the govt. or 2) leave the country with it. Many people, my grandfather for one, just buried it on their property just in case that things got so bad that the govt no longer had control.
    As we know that never happened.


    Anyway, thanks for the reply. I was just asking out of curiosities sake. I am a history nut at heart. I always check when the subject comes up just to see if there is something I have missed and things have changed. Coming from Depression era parents I do find it interesting that some of the same themes are in play even today.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    Good sense. Why go house to house looking for some gold coins when with the stroke of a pen they can control trillions in IRA's, pension funds, etc, force a conversion of them into bonds or, as you said, nationalize them.


    The IRA's, etc contain much more wealth than the gold owners have and the gold owners would be the most difficult to get it from. Most of those with IRA's would just shrug and go oh well, the gold holders would fight to keep it. Its a no-brainer and as Coins pointed out above, there is already a plan in place to do this.


    Gold is held by what, about 1%-2% of the people. Peanuts compared to the other option.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Capps Law


    BTW, George Miller D was discussing taking over millions of dollars worth of accounts in 2008 .


    It's about skating to where the puck is going ,not to where it was last.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » My 2 cents


    I still have my doubts what will actually happen when QE'S do indeed end. I guess we will know either way in a few years. I MIGHT BE WRONG but I am still going to hold a position in physical for that just in case scenario..


    It does look like the shorts are turning into longs as I posted an article on this last night in the latest chapter that I think all should take a look at !


    Opinions are always welcomed as I know very little on this !
    9 Jul 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    best of luck -- no sarcasm intended,


    we are in different worlds..
    9 Jul 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    i dont think u are off base here at all , Obamacare comes with all sorts of 'drags" for the economy , however its a "stretch" to come to some of the conclusions cited. Unless of course one is in the camp of looking for the next catastrophe.


    Now let me spin it for you, despite the complete drag presented by our elected officials, Obamacare, inept congress. US Corporations in the S & P 500 recorded the highest amount of earnings in history.


    Now I will get reminded that it is all an illusion.. :)


    so U see one can "spin" it anyway they want, I do my best to try & increase wealth. Not read the fine print in Obamacare.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @FEAR


    I AGREE with what has transpired over the last 4 years. However once Obamacare does kick in, since the POTUS delayed it for election purposes and no other reason, then reality will sink in and we shall see what the people then actually do.


    Why the delay if it is so good for America? You do agree it was delayed because of the 2014 elections?


    Imo it will be a spin, but not a verbal one. People will be hit with reality, having to buy insurance, having to pay for it, and I am sure we shall see a spin.


    As you have always stated maybe some should book their profits and not be exposed to a correction that you and I have been waiting for.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub, in 1933 most did what their government told them to do. Today, I don't see that occurring if the government does something that most of the people don't agree with, especially the type of people that own gold (who more than likely own guns). Social media is also a big factor. So is marching on Washington in protest.


    My point was just that if you are the government, you don't want to piss off the segment of the population that can do the most damage, lol. I'm going to FreedomFest in Las Vegas tomorrow to meet and greet many of them. I go about every other year.


    9 Jul 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, Lets see, I cut my workforce, pay people less, still make the same amount as before with a bounce off the bottom and my profit breaks records. Makes sense.


    Gap between corporate profits and wages grows to post-war record



    Productivity doesn't match the "illusion" of stock market valuation though. There's more to this story. Doesn't mean that the stock market won't go higher for a bit, but I don't see the follow through that you do.


    U.S. Q1 non-farm productivity revised down to 0.5% gain



    U.S. Manufacturing Takes The Worst Hit Since June 2009

    9 Jul 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    if you have followed my comments,. investors should have been booking profits in selected stocks along the way. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that these portfolios are throwing off income , that will not be affected with any correction. So LT investors need to stay the course and look at corrections as a potential opportunity to create even more income.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    "However, let's not lose sight of the fact that these portfolios are throwing off income , that will not be affected with any correction"


    Maybe I am off base here, but if we have a decent correction, and a stock gets hit downward could they cut their dividend? Isn't that what happened after 2008?


    I am not 100% sure that is why I am asking.


    9 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I don' t see another 2008 here..


    so no im not concerned at this point in time about div cuts. in contrast we just went thru a period of the most div increases in history. Corps. are flush with cash and i don't see the pendulum swinging back that quickly to suggest concern..


    The performance of the div aristocrats over time suggests that also..
    9 Jul 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    Take a look at the stocks I listed and said I would just put the certificates in a safe deposit box. Did their dividends drop 2007-2010? Did any of those companies stop paying dividends 2007-2010? Yes, their price went down in the 2000 bubble crash, yes their price went down in the 1987 crash, yes their price went down in the latest crash 2008-2009. But, they keep paying dividends, doing stock splits, doing share buybacks and their prices always come back up. Companies like these have been the building blocks for trust funds that have generated income for families for generations. And continue to generate income today.


    Does that means you can just forget about them? No, some companies get big and get arrogant and forget about their shareholders and get lazy and lose site of their business.. Microsoft, ATT and the baby Bells, Pitney Bowes, Sears, Kmart, most of the major banks, Xerox are a few of the good case studies in that department.
    9 Jul 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Guys


    Thanks for that information...
    9 Jul 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • China June imports and exports fall 0.7% and 3.1% Y/Y respectively.
    Tuesday, July 9, 10:08 PM ET
    China June imports and exports fall 0.7% and 3.1% Y/Y respectively
    9 Jul 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • I know the article is about QE. But, the charts are a good history lesson in what has been going on since 2008. They also put some perspective into what is going on now economically.

    9 Jul 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
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