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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 23............  188 comments
    Jul 7, 2013 4:56 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Post away!!

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Comments (188)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Anyone want to open?

     

    Ok, I will.. I know this is a holiday weekend so I will pick my winner at midnight.

     

    FAMOUS NUMBER 23 ??

     

    Now anyone want to discuss interest rates? Or my sunburn ? lol

     

    BDC conversations to be continued in Chapter 22, it got really detailed and I thank those who are participating in the education of them. But let's move on to specific stocks that some of you are following .

     

    Thanks!
    7 Jul 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Still not sure how the sports question of the day works but rather than stating obvious answers I offer two not so well known number 23s although both are quite significant in their sports and during their time.... Bobby Nystrom and David Beckham.
    7 Jul 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    I dont know know any 23's so will skip ahead to the next one cuz that is the only one I will be able to answer.
    Willie Mays and Kobe.
    :)
    7 Jul 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RICH The sports question is just an opener for something away from stocks. Yeah your 2 picks aren't that good... lol

     

    @PAWS
    Wow, I have 2 great picks for this jersey number that would be a blog as to whom is better.

     

    Right now TACK, FEAR, WMARKW, have been on a tear with one other person getting the winner.

     

    Looking for others to enter. Winner gets 100 oz gold bar from Doug !! Right Doug ??

     

    Straight from Ft. Knox !!! lol
    7 Jul 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10447) | Send Message
     
    IT - don't you know there is NO gold in Ft. Knox. And all bars will need to be tested for titanium. Doug to certify.
    10 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Regarding individual stocks as a change in the discussion, I have found that it is not as easy as one might think to find a good stock that isn't an obvious choice in the market, that isn't priced too high for the average joe investor to grab serious shares of, and that DOES give a solid promise for the future.
    As stated in our recent dividend stock discussion I am limited in my investment funds.I don't have the luxury of buying a bunch of this 60 dollar stock, a heap of that 50 dollar stock and a pinch of another 90 dollar stock along with a wonderful mix of 20 and 30 dollar stocks to create a large and diverse portfolio while I sit on my boat reading the Wall Street Journal.... I only wish that did describe my situation.
    My quest is much more simple... I need to find a stock or stocks to add to my portfolio which (1) I can hold for several years, (2) has good promise for the long haul without too much risk and (3) doesn't cost all that much. .

     

    I think some risk has to be expected if you want to make money above and beyond a basic 2-3%. My problem is finding a nice choice or two below $20 per share and even a few below $10. Investing in a company like General Mills, General Electric or perhaps Sears where the stock price does not move very much over the years are not choices for me. The best for me is inexpensive with high potential to triple in price ASAP. Yes, of course I am kidding although that would be nice.

     

    Actually, the more I chat with experienced individual investors the more I am told NOT to buy too many individual stocks. Funds which contain a variety of stocks seem to be a more favorable choice and there seem to be plenty of funds to choose from depending on what you would like to invest in... utilities, commodities, real estate, oil, technical companies, etc, etc.

     

    I look forward to those offering specific individual stocks but also encourage the addition of funds to this particular discussion. Aside from silver and dividend stocks I lean in the direction of funds that concentrate on a specific sector or sectors in the business world. Those are also on my list of things to learn more about in the market. I look forward to member suggestions and their reasoning behind them.
    7 Jul 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    It appears you have a lot figured out,, it is not EZ selecting and putting an investment plan together. It is hard work, and you have to make the decision if you have the time and if so, will you put the time and effort into this "job" . I call it a "job' no matter what level anyone is at because after all, we want and expect a "return" and to achieve that, there are no free lunches.

     

    Since you are starting out at this age and now new to investing , the one factor that you don't possess is experience. Not meant to be taken negatively. Now u need to put the advantage back on your side by following a lot of "simple" time tested rules that people use that do possess that experience.

     

    Lets go back to the David Fish , dividend champions lists, get familiar with and use the "chowder rule" in his spreadsheets. Use the Div. Growth column and other metrics in that spreadsheet to narrow down your selections.

     

    Look to see where that selection now falls into a historical perspective, price, div . etc.. Chuck Carnevale's "Fast graph" system will take a lot of that work out of the equation for you. He shows info in simplistic terms, and the graph shows where it stands , over , under or fairly valued at this point in time..

     

    From there if you want another opinion, u can go to a S & P rating sheet, Morningstar, etc. for their views..
    By doing that you will be using a lot of time tested formulas that work.. No need to stray from that approach.

     

    With the timeframe you presented (5-7 yrs), you have the ability to start building now.. keeping each position " in line " within the overall portfolio., and investing as opportunities arise.. (simply don't go all in with avail cash at any point)
    Its your portfolio and in the end u need to make those decisions, if u don't have the time or can't put forth the effort, u will need to seek out a professional.. That is sometimes more difficult (for the obvious reasons (experience , trust, results, etc ) than picking stocks -- LOL
    Best of Luck
    8 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5681) | Send Message
     
    Michael Jordan is the number 23 in my opinion.

     

    Where do I pick up my gold?

     

    Train crash in Canada. Reason for pipelines?
    7 Jul 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    Jon Corzine has it !! I think he did some co mingling with it though.

     

    We still have to midnight as their is another 23 lurking that does deserve some attention.

     

    Like my Corzine comment? lol
    7 Jul 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5681) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Well played on The Honorable Jon Corzine. He has $1.2B reasons to stay out of court, so it seems.
    He was last seen cooking hotdogs at his Hamptons home wearing a #23 jersey with the name "Jordan" on the back of it. Jon Knows Numbers- my apologies to Bo Jackson

     

    I have provided a link to back up my choice of MJ. He rated #1 according to the bleacherreport....all-... rankings...

     

    http://bit.ly/1a4AjT1
    7 Jul 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    U cheating? I have one other player in mind. Just want to see if he even gets mentioned although Jordan will be tough to beat. He just use to let his teammates play with the ball until the 4th quarter then said "ok boys outta my way, it's my time !!"
    7 Jul 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Jordan is absolutely the biggest number 23 ever. I was just offering Bobby Nystrom and David Beckham as strong alternatives in other sports. Is this contest all about the most famous sports figure to ever wear the number of the day? i missed the first several. Just one question... when the number 12 was thrown out there, did Joe Namath qualify as the best answer? He should have!
    7 Jul 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Originally on Cleveland LeBron James wore 23. Is that who you were looking for IT?
    7 Jul 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RICH

     

    I didn't start this trivia to we were in the 20 range, and YES LeBron is the other name I was looking for.

     

    I do this just to start the blog off and it is usually done after hours to unwind. Some spend all day here !
    7 Jul 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    My first reaction to 23 is that it's a prime number.

     

    Hum, 23 is famous for being after 22. Yep that's it. I'm quite sure. It's also famous for being before 24!

     

    ...says this person who hasn't a clue on any of these sports. I'm just trying to join in the playing.
    8 Jul 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5681) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    No shenanigans on my part. Jordan was an easy choice for the number 23, in my opinion.
    The kids of today don't know much about Jordan, which amazes me. LeBron is the face of the NBA now and I do enjoy watching him play.

     

    When it is all said and done, LeBron could be considered "the best ever." Two rings down, four to go to match MJ. Nine to go to match Russell. So tough to compare players from different generations.

     

    My choice for #24- Willie Mays (just wanted to go on record early)

     

    Still waiting for my gold. Jon Corzine has buried his in the backyard of his Chateau in France.
    8 Jul 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Has the move to institute centralized clearing of derivatives actually increased systemic risk? Some banks seem to think so, although one might reasonably question their objectivity given that the move to clearinghouses threatens to supplant OTC bilateral deals, which were lucrative for dealer banks. The worry is that clearinghouses are not yet adequately capitalized to fulfill their expanding role in the financial system. "If we move risk somewhere else, we obviously need to make sure there is enough capital to support it," one finance director tells FT."

     

    Can someone translate this into English? I just got a PM asking this !!
    7 Jul 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10447) | Send Message
     
    There is a move to make derivatives more transparent by forcing them to be traded on a market where pricing is obvious and I assume there are bids and asks. Banks seem to be reluctant to allow us into their knickers to see what's going on and have a more comprehensive understanding of how they make money and where their real risks are. I am not sure what kind of capital requirements there would be for "clearing houses" as they don't seem to be anything but record keepers. But someone may understand more about how their role comes into play in busted trades, etc. I don't know if the clearing houses would act as market makers in any way. I would suspect not.
    10 Jul 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Deer has it nailed with MJ,,

     

    but i seem to remember a guy named Don Mattingly , one of my fav's
    7 Jul 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Ok who will have the better career in the end, Mike or LeBron?
    7 Jul 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I'll stick with Mike ,, but its like trying to separate 2 div aristocrats -- LOL
    8 Jul 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • gggl
    , contributor
    Comments (5639) | Send Message
     
    Simply Mike, afterall Michael took a team like the Cavaliers and made them multiple champions (anyone remember how pitiful the Bulls were before Michael). Lebron had to bail and find help.
    10 Jul 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    But then, the Cavs never got LBJ the kind of quality support players the Bulls gave MJ. Pippen was a top 50 all timer and the Bulls had quality role players. If LBJ was on those Bulls teams they may have done as well. Hard to say of course. And LBJ and the Cavs didnt have a hall of fame coach either. MJ didnt win anything until PJ came along.
    You just cant pick a greatest of all time as there are too many other contributing factors.
    10 Jul 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @GGGL

     

    Welcome to our chat. I believe this is your first time and look forward to hopefully you continuing commenting here !

     

    Any thoughts on the markets and how relate to the QE'S ?
    10 Jul 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, Mike is it !!

     

    Now onto investments. Does anyone have their favorite Mutual Fund(s) for people just starting out investing and are uncomfortable picking stocks?

     

    Or and ETF as well ?
    8 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Realize its not for all, especially a newbie, but I'm an individual stock selector , I use A fund or ETF when i want exposure to things like emerging markets, Europe , Japan, etc.. Also very rare for me..

     

    So in that context I wouldn't suggest any of those funds, ETF's for someone starting out..
    I.e. can be difficult explaining the US market to some, why get into the game and try and explain why their german fund is down --- :)
    8 Jul 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    You have been on record as stating gold is kaput. Can you explain this report then?

     

    http://bit.ly/14ZjMfQ

     

    Not sure what to make of it >>>
    9 Jul 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    First, i always look at the source of news and their "track" record .
    I don't know anything about this outfit, but can suggest they "may" have an agenda and anyone can slant numbers to make their case.
    (not accusing them of that )
    From their report "we've all suffered through the almost-daily pain of continued losses. But this is almost over! Please, I beg you, remain patient and continue to stack physical metal'

     

    From those words what side of the equation do they have a vested interest in ?

     

    Could these large players now be set up to play for a dead cat bounce ?( nothing goes down forever) If so, we can review their reports if gold does in fact rally to see how positions may have changed.

     

    I'll stick with my thoughts, Gold is still in a bear market, the trend is still down. I can see a possible rally back to 1300 .. Like any stock or commodity that has suffered this type of fall, all rallies are sold, adding pressure to the downside. Once Gold finds its resting place here or lower. (The Gold "bulls" see 1100-1150 as a retracement. ) ,
    I believe it will settle in and flat line for approx, the same period it took to build the base for the upside.. IMO -- that may be years of non performance , unless one is nimble enough to "trade" rallies or short bounces.
    9 Jul 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Gold - what I don't get is why it's moving up at the same time stocks are?

     

    I thought it was a "things are getting bad" buy, contrary to stocks. Or is this just a minor movement bounce?
    9 Jul 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    IMO , a "bounce" , It will be interesting to see if it can get back to 1300
    9 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Some are in the camp the more you depreciate the dollar by printing the higher both the stock market and gold go. Your dollar actually buys less so the price increases.

     

    Now we will see *if* the FED decides to stop the QE'S what effect that will have.

     

    TACK has the opinion that only hysteria will happen, others have a different thought.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    "TACK has the opinion that only hysteria will happen, others have a different thought."

     

    IT,

     

    Can you or Tack explain that further. I must have missed that discussion but it sounds interesting.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    I might have misinterpreted this so hopefully TACK will correct me if I did. However I interpreted his opinion that the QE'S never made it into the markets, so that once they stop you will basically get a hysteria sell off that won't be sustainable and actually turn into buying opportunities instead.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13539) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    QE will be non-event, in reality.

     

    Inflation will remain moderate.

     

    Gold will remain well below highs.
    9 Jul 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Nothing has changed since the last time you asked. It is still Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
    8 Jul 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Apple (AAPL -1.1%) is cutting iPhone build orders by 20% thanks to "slowing demand for high-end handsets globally," says Wedge Partners' Brian Blair; he now expects 2H builds of 90M-100M vs. a prior 115M-120M. Blair's comments come two weeks after Jefferies' Peter Misek reported of elevated channel inventories and FQ3 (June quarter) build order cuts, and Oppenheimer's Ittai Kidron cut his FQ3 and FQ4 estimates thanks to "mixed" iPhone 5 sales checks. FQ3 results arrive on July 23. (Samsung forecast) (Citi on high-end phones) "

     

    Are those APPLE investors still bullish ??
    8 Jul 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Yes... still a hold for me as an LT investor after adding in June @ $390
    9 Jul 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Does the dividend payout differ in EFTs holding a basket, from what you'd get as an investor holding the same basket by yourself?

     

    I'd think it'd be the same, but someone here posted a comment that made me want to check.
    8 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    I've posted this question about dividends a few times & never gotten any reply...

     

    ....not even a "that's the dumbest question I ever heard curls."

     

    So can someone put me out of my misery and at least say it's dumb & the answer is obvious... or that you don't know... or some other unexpected answer. Thanks!
    8 Jul 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13539) | Send Message
     
    There is no one answer.

     

    At the minimum, dividends can be reduced by the management fees, which in ETF's are low, but not zero. Also, some ETF's have "managed distributions," so they may be different, or smoothed, from what would occur if the holding were merely added together.
    8 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Not trying to blow you off Curls. I don't know, because I have never bought an ETF because of the fees. I prefer just buying the stocks myself so that I can place covered calls on them.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!

     

    Tact: That explains perfectly. So beyond the expense ratio, it's the same but may be lumped differently... or if I read the find print, some EFTs may use derivatives or some other thing I'd never think of. Very helpful explanation.

     

    @Notrub: Thanks - glad to know. (I didn't feel blown off - it was just this question.)
    8 Jul 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Uh.. It's TACK, TACK....not tact.. Now you know why he never answered you ! lol
    8 Jul 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Same here, with some work, your bottom line can be increased dramatically.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Soooorrrry. It's classic messing-up-letters by me. Nothing personal.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    F&G

     

    " Same here, with some work, your bottom line can be increased dramatically. "

     

    What do you mean? I'm missing something here.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    F&G means buying 100 shares of a stock so that he can put a covered call on them. Same as me, above.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls ,
    Sorry for the confusion,, looks like my comment got misplaced under yours.

     

    I was replying to notrub , regarding his strategy to buy individual stocks , then sell covered calls , instead of buying a div ETF.

     

    I prefer to do the same , prefer to pick my own individual stocks, rather than etf.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    As an example the 9 stocks I put calls on this month I have received $139 in dividends. But, I have also received $235 in premiums from the covered calls. For a total income this month of $374. If my calls get exercised by the 20th I will make an additional $600 profit on the stocks. Though only 4 of the 9 are in the money right now. Not a bad return for one month's work.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB and FEAR..

     

    Passing on a PM here, person doesn't understand it fully by googling covered calls and the strategy involved. Would you mind giving us a real example of one?Maybe a trade you have done, how you pick the amount of the strike price, who pays for it, and your rationale. like time wise etc.

     

    I believe you did this once before but if you find time to pick a stock and walk the person through it I think they might want to try it !

     

    Plus if you have a site that explains this well please put it here and in the Reading chapter.

     

    I am still learning this method myself so I don't even want to attempt it. Plus what is the downside of this. It seems both of you two do this religiously so I may be a way for people to make money it seems.
    Thanks!
    8 Jul 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ CURLS

     

    The M'S getting stuck again?

     

    Ok, TACK..... What does TACK stand for anyway??? Care to explain it ?
    8 Jul 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    "Soooorrry."

     

    Nope no stuck m's. I just finished Steve Martin's book about his comedy. He popularized that expression. ...though I think it was meant sarcastically & I genuinely mean it. I'm terrible with keeping letters in words straight.
    8 Jul 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Now there's something i haven't a clue about and won't touch until I do. "Calls" - I don't even know what that is but it sure sounds like Notrub is doing well with them. You mention an income of $374 this month... how much money is tied up in the market in order for you to generate that $374? Is making money this way high risk? I do not expect a fiull blown lesson on this... perhaps a link where i can learn about it but I am curious to hear what kind of funds must be toed up in and what risk level there is to generate the $374 with and additional $600 profit still possible. I would venture to guess there is significant money generating these possibilities but have no clue how much risk is involved at the same time.
    8 Jul 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I am not funny enough for you? My feelings are hurt.
    8 Jul 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Sigh... I guess it's just my day for ..."soooorrry." :)
    8 Jul 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    IT, Rich,
    A call is an option to buy a stock at a given price. If you are buying a call option you pay a premium to purchase that stock at a certain price by a set date. The price is called the Strike Price, the date is called the expiration date or just expiration. If you already own 100 shares of a stock then you can sell a call for that block of stock. 1 options contract is always 100 shares. When you sell 1 contract of 100 shares of a stock that you own it is called a covered call, because your only risk in the contract is having to sell your 100 shares at the strike price. For SELLING a call you receive the premium. If you buy the call you pay the premium. If the price of the stock rises to the strike price the buyer can buy the 100 shares at any time. This is called exercising the option when the buyer wants the 100 shares. Just to give you an idea, I have only had one contract for GE exercised this year. Once the contract hits the expiration date it is gone. Either way you keep the premium and can do anything you want with it. Covered call options are the only options you can do without a margin account. In other words it is the only option you can do without having to borrow or put up money to execute. So, you do not have to worry about margin calls forcing you to make a trade. You already own the shares, that is all that can be forced into a trade at the strike price you agreed on..

     

    For an example. As you know I bought 100 shares of Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) with brokers fees my cost was $3417 or 34.17 a share.
    I went to Yahoo Finance and brought the options section for (ADM)
    http://yhoo.it/16lap9w
    On that day, the $35 strike price ($35 a share would give me a $83 profit for holding the stock for 20 days) for a 20JULY option had a premium of .40 (40 cents per share). .40 times 100 shares = $40.

     

    So I sold a call contact on (ADM) with a strike price of $35 for an expiration of 20JUL13. In the options table you will see ADM130720C00035000. This means the stock is ADM, the year is 2013, the month is 07 the day is 20, the "C" is for a call option and all the rest with the 35 is the strike price of $35.

     

    Currently, today ADM closed at $35.36. So the buyer could exercise their option at any time and my 100 shares of ADM would be sold to them for $3500 and the option is closed. If whatever reason the buyer doesn't exercise the option by 21JULY the option expires, I keep the 100 shares and start all over for the next covered call.

     

    So, just for examples sake the option on ADM is exercised tomorrow. I would have $3500 plus the $40 premium for selling the option for $3540 minus the $3417 I paid for a $123 profit in 20 days. Actually minus the $9.17 broker fees I would only have $113 profit for 20 days. I'll let you do the math, but, the point is that there are options ranging from one week to 5 years. I only do options for one month or less time periods. That means I can generate this income 12 times a years. If I make sure I hold the 100 shares during the 4 times a years that X Dividend and Date of record rolls around I also get the dividend payments for those 100 shares for the year. So if I subtract the 4 times a year I don't want to have an option on my shares I can still do 8 monthly options a year for the extra income.

     

    Hope that helps???
    8 Jul 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    So in your example what is your reasoning for not picking lets say $36 bucks as the strike price?
    8 Jul 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Because the $36 strike price on that day was only .12 or $12. Minus my brokerage fees it would make $2.29.

     

    I have been doing this long enough that I know I can usually just buy the stock back or even better buy one of the other stocks on my watchlist and start the process all over. I am not attached to my stocks. I like having a guaranteed sell price no matter what. My main priority is to generate monthly income, not hold on to a particular stock. Using the covered call option on my stocks I get paid every month vice just 4 times a year when dividends come around.

     

    If you look at the January 2015 option table
    http://yhoo.it/185bCZg
    I could have sold ADM for $40 strike for a $2.26 premium. Experience has shown me I can make more than $226 in two years. If I do weekly contracts that is 52 premiums a year, or monthly 12 times a year. So just doing monthly contracts $226 divided by 24 months = $9.46. So as long as I am making more than $9.46 a contract I am doing better in the long term doing shorter contracts. Also, with the shorter contracts there is less of a chance that your contract will be exercised. So I don't have to make any decision other than what is the next contract I am going to sell.

     

    You have to go into the tables and look up the contracts each time. They vary. A weekly contract may not always be available if there is no opening interest in it. Sometimes the contacts will not be available at each one dollar increment. Sometimes it may be $2 or $5. It all depends on the interest in that particular stock.
    8 Jul 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    Ok, that makes sense.

     

    Thanks!
    8 Jul 2013, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13539) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    OK, ready for a heartwarming little story? :-)

     

    When I was a little tyke, my great aunt used to say "isn't he a cute, little tacker." I suppose that was the vernacular for someone born in the late 1800's. In any case "Tacker" started to be my nickname, which, of course, got shortened to "Tack," and it's remained the name to which I am referred throughout my side of the family.

     

    Of course, when I grew up literally everybody had a nickname, anyway, so that's become my nom de plume, as well.
    9 Jul 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    ROS,
    Currently this month I have 9 stocks that I have covered calls on. My cost for the 900 shares was $15,833. I do not put covered calls on every block of stock I own. Some are up for dividends, some I can not get a profitable strike price for in the one month or shorter time frame. Some I can't put a covered call on because I have not built up a 100 share block yet, like (FCX) I currently own 28 shares which I build on every time I get additional cash.

     

    As long as you only do covered calls on stocks in which you can make a profitable trade on at the strike price you select the only risk is that the option will be exercised and you sell your 100 shares of that particular stock. Once you sell a call on your 100 shares the premium is yours to do what you want with no matter what happens with the option.

     

    Some people think they are leaving money on the table. Take the example I gave of my 100 shares of (ADM). My strike price is $35. At this moment the price is at $35.36. So if it exercised today I get 3500 for the stock and $40 for the premium for 3540 before commissions. The buyer could turn around and sell the stock for $3536 minus their premium, $3500 for the 100 shares and commissions. Say the stock rose to $36 by Friday and was exercised. I would still only get the $3540, but the buyer would get $3600 for selling the 100 shares minus the above.

     

    I have had cases where the stock price goes up over $2 over the strike price and is never exercised. A lot of traders use options for a lot of different purposes. Like using a straddle (buying or selling a put and call at the same time to lock in a profit at a certain price range. This strategy is used a lot during earnings season when a stock is coming out with their earnings on a certain day and the trader wants to lock in a profit on just that days trading) or using options to hedge against losses. Once you get into those types of options you have to have a margin account. Which means your potential losses and gains are amplified because you are using leverage (borrowed money). I do not use borrowed money for any of my transactions so I have limited myself to just doing covered calls and taking what the market will give me each month.

     

    Hope that helps???
    9 Jul 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I gave some examples here on your blog,, however i have decided to use the blog feature here on SA and make "notes" on various opinions that i have stated .
    For one , right or wrong it gives me a track record. I want to be transparent and from time to time use that for a potential client.
    It also eliminates my constant "searching" for comments i may have posted.

     

    Here is my post on the covered calls....

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Rich,
    comments from my blog notes

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    In the Bronx WE all had nicknames as well. Crooked nose Freddy, Sticky fingers Sal. Jimmy the goat ( don't ask), Wigger, Rhino, Mine ? PAIN IN THE AS@... According to my parents.

     

    Thanks for the insight.
    9 Jul 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    Very cute :-) Not sure what she meant, but it paints a fun image of a proud auntie.

     

    ...don't most people have nicknames? Or am I so used to it, I didn't know you could not?
    9 Jul 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub & F&G

     

    Thanks for posting all these details on covered calls. Between yours & F&G's examples, I'm going to buckle down & see if I can absorb this, since it's something I'd like to be doing.
    9 Jul 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @Notrub

     

    So if stock price goes down, you can't sell it off to stop the loss? That's another risk? So if GE dipped to $24 because of really poor earnings or a big production disaster or turned into an Enron, you couldn't get out & would still be holding at the lower price.

     

    If it goes down, but you want it in your portfolio for the long haul & don't mind waiting through the down, then that's not a big deal either. You've gained the premiums, just for holding it.

     

    The other risk as you say, is the stock rises more than the strike price & you miss out on profits. Which could be considered a risk -- or not. Have you done any calculations comparing, if you'd bought & straight held some stock for a time period, vs. buying & having it get exercised some of the times you've covered it during that time period?

     

    It looks like the premiums vary over time. How often are they updated? YOu can't just pick one, but have to place a bid offer to buy & see if you get it.

     

    Am I getting this? Any suggestions?
    10 Jul 2013, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration. It is about the new EPA rules for fuels since Congress didn't act:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Jul 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration. A simple investment strategy for those that don't want to spend the majority of their time on the markets:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Jul 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    he is using David Fish & Chuck Carnevale for his guidelines , two of the best here .
    8 Jul 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    I just like that he goes through and explains how he makes his investment decisions. Once you understand that, if you agree with it, it is just a matter of looking at his holdings for a list of companies that may also meet your needs. Plus, as he shows, even with 600K+ invested there are still plenty of good companies to take a look at.

     

    His articles have been a nice beginners guide to long term dividend growth investing.
    8 Jul 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for posts like these which offer suggestions, reasons and best of all other bloggers you respect. There is no better way to learn than to read the ideas and strategies of others with experience. There's a lot to absorb but most is written in a way that the newbie can get a good grip. I only wish I had more time to read through everything.

     

    Just received my first issue of Kiplingers. I have read several issues in the past either at Barnes and Noble or buying one now and then but finally decided to subscribe. I like the magazine because there always seems to be 2 or 3 articles, if not more that I can relate to and sometimes apply to my own investing process. It is not too basic but not too complicated either.

     

    I think the best thing a newbie can do is read, read, read and as time allows I am trying to do just that. Thanks again for great resources.

     

    ROS
    8 Jul 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just received a PM,,,, What is the next big day for data that might move the markets??
    8 Jul 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Fomc minutes released on July 12, IMO not much effect. but who knows.

     

    Beranake testifies to the House financial svcs committee on July 17th, then goes to Senate Banking committee on the 18th, we can expect rhetoric from our elected officials on sequestration, economy, updated debt ceiling . every word will be sliced diced and parsed..

     

    That may be a market mover.. Thats the one on my radar screen for now.
    Couple that with earnings and you have the makings of short term volatility.
    
    8 Jul 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Thanks!
    8 Jul 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "More on Consumer Credit: The $19.6B rise in May was the most in a year, bringing the annualized percentage gain up to 8.3%. Previous increases have typically been from nonrevolving debt (auto and student loans), with revolving debt (credit cards) sitting out, but revolving debt accounted for $6.6B of the increase in May. At $856.5B, it's little-changed since a steep post-financial crisis drop. Nonrevolving debt of nearly $2T is about 33% higher than it stood 4 years ago."

     

    Appreciate opinions on this !!!
    8 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    A heads up on mining stocks:

     

    http://bit.ly/12ndwvs

     

    Last paragraph is about downgrades. And, the only upgrade was for a company they believe has the cash to ride the slump out.
    8 Jul 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1056) | Send Message
     
    Notrub
    Thank you for the site and an interesting article; base metals mining stocks will suffer more with China slowing down and restructuring; I don't understand why China is buying many mining companies if their economy is slowing; do they know something that we don't or are being foolish?
    8 Jul 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Rin,
    China has had a record of trying to buy companies on the cheap. They have also been strategic in cornering the rare earth minerals market this way. Which has forced other countries to pay the price to China to get some of the REEs that they need for their national strategic programs. I will try and find the articles that explain this and post it separately. With the basic miners on the ropes I have no doubt they will try and pick up as many miners as they think they can make profitable and suits the national priorities.
    8 Jul 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Also, do not forget. China is a communist country. When it comes down to brass tacks their companies will buy whatever they are directed to buy. The government will ensure that it is a profitable enterprise for the purchaser.
    8 Jul 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Rin,
    maybe they aren't slowing as much as the some would have us think..

     

    Their "slowing" is colossal growth compared to the rest of the world..
    9 Jul 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Articles on China and strategic minerals:

     

    http://bit.ly/14ENWWQ

     

    http://bit.ly/14ENUya

     

    http://bit.ly/14ENWWU
    8 Jul 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those dividend growth investors what are your opinions on this article?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks!
    8 Jul 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    I read her article earlier. It was the first one of her articles I have read, but, I like anyone who is willing to lay out their plan and put it out for criticism. So I will probably read all of her articles.

     

    As to her company listing. Some I already own. Some like banks I will never own. And, some of the Canadian companies I am not familiar with and would have to research them to decide own way o0r another. She obviously brings a traders perspective to her DGI portfolio. Which is why I think she is wary of her purchase of Western Union (WU). I learned my lesson in my purchase of Old Republic International (http://bit.ly/NXYZC6) about buying stocks for companies where I didn't completely understand their business. I thought ORI was just an insurance company that had paid dividends longer than anyone else. After getting educated on the business I understood that ORI is a reinsurer meaning that they sold insurance to other companies to cover losses. Like on MBSs. Once I discovered they were in the business of insuring derivatives I sold them. It is the same reason I would never buy (http://bit.ly/pllDEJ). It has become painfully obvious that they don't understand derivatives, and inso what they are insuring. If they can't understand their own business I don't think I will spend the time and effort to do it for them.

     

    Anyway, the short version is I don't buy any company now that I don't completely understand how they make their money. That way I don't have to track what they are up to on a daily basis. Companies like Exxon, Chevron, Proctor and Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Walmart, Coca Cola, Pepsi, Phillip Morris, Clorox, ADM, WD 40, ADP, McDonalds, Kimberly Clarke, 3M, Colgate Palmolive, Unilever, Boeing, Lockheed Martin to name a few aren't going any where in my lifetime. As long as they don't cut or stop paying their dividend I don't care what their price is and could just stick the stock certificates into a safety deposit box and let my kids fight over them when I am dead and gone....:o)
    9 Jul 2013, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    ". As long as they don't cut or stop paying their dividend I don't care what their price is and could just stick the stock certificates into a safety deposit box and let my kids fight over them when I am dead and gone....:o)"

     

    So are your investments just for the dividends then?
    9 Jul 2013, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    I am investing to create income.
    9 Jul 2013, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    She appears to be on right track, using "Fast Graphs" , etc.

     

    I like (CVX) & (AFL) on pullbacks , but i have said that for 3 months now -- LOL
    maybe in Aug ?
    9 Jul 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "More on the Wunderlich downgrade of the mREITs (REM +1.2%), (MORT +1.3%): The "lack of liquidity reached crisis levels" on Friday, says the team. "Price discovery has become a very uncertain process and we believe there is a risk that some entity - be it a mREIT or a hedge fund - could fail to meet margin requirements ... while we hope to be wrong in this case, equity investors need to be mindful of the potential downside scenarios."

     

    I am posting these quotes looking for opinions on what seem to be important issues brought up daily. Either they are right or wrong. Appreciate opinions ..

     

    Thanks !
    8 Jul 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    "Thomson Reuters Corp : The news and information company said it would suspend its early provision to a small group of clients of the widely watched Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment data at the request of the New York Attorney General."
    http://bit.ly/14F1lhB
    8 Jul 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Funny after I posted that it was public knowledge for a long time NOW the NYAG finds it immoral?

     

    Small group huh. They were paying for inside information,,,,

     

    What a crock !
    8 Jul 2013, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    With all the BDC talk in here peaking my interest i have been doing some reading. Came across this Motley Fool article that claims now is not the time to buy BDCs... not yet anyway, so I thought I would share....

     

    http://bit.ly/1a7sn3l
    8 Jul 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    IMHO,

     

    for someone new to "investing" , I would not be into the BDC's , whether its "time " for purchase or not..

     

    When starting out -- keep it simple.. & understandable..
    9 Jul 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    FEAR,

     

    I appreciate your words of wisdom and agree. I feel a small investment in a BDC will give me exposure, be a learning process and hopefully make me a few bucks so I would like to get in slowly. As stated in here I have 10% of my IRA each November to move around. This year I will average down my PSLV investment and introduce a BSD into the mix. Next year, after another year of learning I will decide if BSDs should be a more significant play in my IRA.

     

    Thanks again.

     

    ROS
    9 Jul 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Well thanks to F&G, I can now understand much more of this morning's S&P movement.

     

    1650 was an top resistance.
    1645 was a bottom resistance.
    Currently it's broken down thru 1645 on it's 3rd bounce.... (and 1644 was a new bottom resistance.)

     

    Not sure what I'll do with that type of knowledge... but I'd bet it will help me later understand prices I want to buy swing trades at.
    9 Jul 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    S & P approaching area (1660 - 1687) now that may reveal the direction of the next move. Either we retake the old highs decisively or "fail" and drop back to bottom end of range (1560 - maybe lower.)
    Right now I'm leaning to the downside.. For a variety of reasons.

     

    Good time to "watch" , stay with LT holdings , be conservative , sell covered calls on selective stocks for income..

     

    Please remember its a short term view. a "blip" for LT investors..
    9 Jul 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration the new IMF global growth outlook:

     

    http://bit.ly/171TNWt
    9 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    For your consideration:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    I really do appreciate all your posts, However I do have a small request. When you post "FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION" would you mind a short summary of what it is about?

     

    I have a feeling some just pass over some because they have no idea what it is about. I have as I try to circle around other articles to invite posters to join us as this is all word of mouth.

     

    But if I see something you post that is a MUST read for me I will open it immediately. Just my 2 cents. Sometimes I actually forget to go back and read what you sent. I honestly try to read everything which can take hours.

     

    Oh, and your example on covered calls SHOULD be in the Reading Material so if you find time can you cut and paste? It was a great explanation that would be great to have to relay people to if they question this down the road.imo

     

    Thanks!
    9 Jul 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I put the covered call info in the reading chapter. I can't edit my post. So I will just start leaving a short summary of the articles in any new posts I make.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT

     

    Thanks, sorry I did want you to go back and edit anything. I opened one and saw it was Eric's article. I hope he stops by soon to leave some comments here as well.
    9 Jul 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "IBM is downgraded to Hold with $200 price target at Goldman. The team says the business model isn't working as hoped and the company may see intensifying pressure on its high-margin revenue streams in coming quarters. The 2013 EPS estimate is cut to $16.61 from $16.71; 2014 to $17.92 from $18.10. Shares -1% premarket. "

     

    Times are changing when IBM get downgraded imo..
    9 Jul 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    not an endorsement for IBM , But at the lowered EPS $16.61 and current price of IBM ($191)the PE ratio is approx.. 11.5 - under the S & P at the moment.
    don't forget the 2% yield, 10 yr div growth rate of 17% , paid div for 18 consecutive yrs. -- not greatly overvalued here. Keep in perspective, these are "record" earnings numbers..

     

    any more weakness (lower 180's) and its a " buy"
    9 Jul 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR or anyone!

     

    "New home contract cancellations (XHB) could jump 19% for sales made in H1 of homes not yet built, says mortgage analyst Mark Hanson, as buyers had yet to lock in rates. Hanson refers back to the ending of the homebuyer credit in 2010 when new home sales cratered 38% in a single month. "It's having a chilling effet on the market," says one realtor of higher rates. Someone previously qualified at $600K might now just be able to afford $550K, he says."

     

    Is this a non event?
    10 Jul 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    It's a non-event. A blip at the most. That homebuyer credit was $8000 if closed by end of that month. It's purpose was to stimulate when market was shaky by giving buyers cash to cover closing costs. It worked. Lots of people who otherwise couldn't buy at all based on costs but could afford the mortgage itself now were motivated. Others who'd been on the fence were getting a straight equity boost in the form of tax rebate, so they'd take a chance on a home buy because a small wobble down again wouldn't matter.

     

    Totally different than a slight increase in interest rates. This is just normal movement. It freezes & slows things for a couple months tops. But people buy homes because it's time & they can afford it now that they have a raise. The overall economy is what matters. Not 1-2% different in rates. That's been true for many decades. Rates are a short term blip effect, not an overall effect.

     

    Now $8000 is a big deal at getting those lower end homes that were prime in foreclosures & in rotten physical condition, sold. The firm deadline is why that next month saw a huge drop off. The article isn't genuine by neglecting to put that drop in the longer context of several months or the 1/2 year that followed.
    10 Jul 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    looks like Curls has it covered.. one data point,, thought i saw a headlne here this AM, regarding interest rates not having much affect on homebuying - Go figure ..
    10 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok.. another lurker asking if a few posters can explain the difference between the two different investing methods. Keys vs Aust ??

     

    1) What is the long term pitfalls of each.
    2) Why one is better then the other.
    3) How many years before one would know if the method worked.

     

    Thanks!
    9 Jul 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Keys and Ast aren't investing methods they are economic models from two different schools of economists Keynesians and Austrians. Keys basic say debt doesn't matter
    Aust says it does
    Guess we'll have to wait and see???? Either way we will live through or die and it really won't matter.
    9 Jul 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OPEN TO ALL !!

     

    What has history proved? Has both methods been tried enough to say one matters and the other doesn't?

     

    @NOT... I know you like history so has the Keynesian method ever worked? Can we just forget about debt?
    9 Jul 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those who believe GOLD is money. I see a few who post here already commented on this article.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thoughts ?
    9 Jul 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Companies continue the barrage of div. increases & buybacks

     

    (CMI) is a global cyclical play where the naysayers suggest the world economy isn't improving .

     

    Is this Div. raise & buying back shares an illusion .??
    Not for the shareholders.... '
    http://bit.ly/14Hh7IS
    9 Jul 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So BB speaks after the markets close today. Think he even hints at QE'S stopping? I say NO !
    10 Jul 2013, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    I thought BB was speaking at 2pm. Or meeting released, then he speaks.
    10 Jul 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    He speaks after the markets closed with I believe the minutes being released at 2pm. Is that why it seems the markets are flat today or is this just the summer doldrums?

     

    Thoughts anyone !!
    10 Jul 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    FEAR,

     

    You mentioned in a recent reply that I should more or less stay away from BSDs until I have better knowledge of them. I agree although I may try it on a small scale at first. Let's say I do not go that route and I have between $5k and $10k to work with this November. For the newer and less experienced investor looking for long term choices that can bring rewards worth taking about within say 10 years, may I ask what you would suggest? Are there individual stocks that would be a good move or perhaps a fund? If I want to make 2-3% on my investments I'll go to the bank a invest in a CD. I am looking for 7-10% return each year. I do not believe that is all that unreasonable. Any suggestions? Thanks.
    10 Jul 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FOLKS

     

    Good question, is a 7% return too aggressive. I believe he meant BCD'S..

     

    looking forward to opinions from the seasoned investors. Is 5 to 10k WORKABLE??

     

    Thanks!
    10 Jul 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    Don't get spoiled by the returns we've racked up last year and to date in '13. However, getting involved with 5 or 10 k and picking one position , well I believe u can see the perils of that. If you were going to put the same amount of money to work each year and had the 10 yr time horizon u mentioned , after a while u would have put together a few nice holdings.. Then have more flexibility..

     

    I like individual names instead of funds , primarily because I can sell call options and pick up more income in a shorter period of time.. Requires a working knowledge of that strategy and plenty of work, but here is a quick example of why i prefer that over a fund.

     

    i.e i was looking at (MSFT) for purchase then sell a call , without all the details it will yield 3% for a holding period of 3 months. Annualized 12% .
    Safe & if the market turns against the position I own a stock yielding 2.7% .
    Given the circumstances i mentioned and the fact that u wont have funds untill maybe the Nov time frame, it would be useless to throw names out now.. If u had the money now I doubt i could give u single name I would be confident in at this time..

     

    Follow the link i posted yesterday which shows the call option strategies i have going right now , I will update that as we go along..

     

    Notrub also had some great examples in his post. Follow those also..

     

    maybe the best bet , keep it simple - try one of the div aristocrat funds mentioned here.
    If u decide on an individual stock to start , i can throw out names when u r ready.
    Hope that helps
    10 Jul 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    First, I did mean BCDs but I make that error in letters too often for whatever reason. As for calls and puts... that, to me is more difficult to understand than BCDs. In fact I will admit I have zero clue about calls and puts.... couldn't even define what they are much less use them in an investment strategy. I also do not like paying broker fees for short term investments so for the time being at least I will pass on the short-term moves. I am really looking more for buy and hold stocks, funds, commodities or indeed BCDs. As each November comes, I want to place the amount I can reallocate into long-term investments. I have never been good in the short term and for now am not interested in that type of investment.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2385) | Send Message
     
    Hello IT and all,

     

    I miss a few weeks and I miss a lot! Chapter 23 on what is now the #3 ranked blog on SA. Great work IT!

     

    I'm still getting back up to speed but will plan on checking back soon to join in on the discussion.

     

    Talk to you soon.
    Eric
    9 Jul 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Eric

     

    We do miss your insights as the BDC'S were discussed at length. Hope you find time to comment on a few posters questions and to give us your opinions as well.

     

    We missed you !
    10 Jul 2013, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • beauW
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Intel @ 23...
    10 Jul 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @beauW

     

    Welcome. Are you suggesting buying Intel @23 ? lol
    10 Jul 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • fishfryer
    , contributor
    Comments (3262) | Send Message
     
    I think Intel will be able to be bought much lower, 22.25 or maybe less. Just sold mine right before the peak and given the dividend is worth buying.
    10 Jul 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • beauW
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Times,

     

    Thank you for the welcome. No, I was not suggesting buying. I was seeking feedback on what people thought what to do with Intel right now. Also, it was my first post here and look at your first post.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • beauW
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    How many shares of Intel does one need to buy to benefit from dividend. Time horizon: 10+ years and assume modest growth?
    15 Jul 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Beau,
    I have been a long term holder of (INTC). With that kind of time horizon (10 Yrs) , I believe it will a good "core" holding that will continue to provide dividend growth over time.. With a present yield of almost 4% , it provides decent income right now.. Each share will give u the dividend , there is no minimum to receive a div.

     

    Not sure how much u are investing with , but if u do decide to buy , scale in to the position by taking the total u want to invest into 3 amounts, and invest a 3 separate time periods.

     

    Can it be bought cheaper , sure , but since u are here for LT, starting now isn't the worst thing u could do..

     

    I do like the stock for the long haul for a variety of reasons..
    Hope this helps..
    15 Jul 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • beauW
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Fear & Greed,

     

    Thanks for your advice. Yes, I do own Intel; however, I am 7 months into my first "real" job after graduating college May '12. I bought 20 shares of Intel 3-4 Months ago when it was 21 something. I do not make a lot of money, but I have paid off all debt except for my main student loan, and I don't have any kids or wife and not planning on any until I can start making more money at work, so it's going to be a very long time until that happens. I have just been considering selling Intel because I feel like it's a great stock if you can buy 20,000 shares. I like your adding every 3 months, but what about the fees? Thanks for your time and advice.
    15 Jul 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Beau,

     

    congrats on both your job & your debt situation.

     

    fees can be made manageable , many discount brokers from $7- $9 per transaction, sharebuilder.com, etc.

     

    also if u decide to keep investing look into dividend reinvestment plans offered by companies.. easiest way to add more shares and then reinvest the dividends at low costs.

     

    here's one of many examples out there

     

    http://bit.ly/18h44iY

     

    Best of luck ..
    15 Jul 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BEAU

     

    The best advice I can give you being in my later years ( seasoned ?) is to applaud one for starting to invest at a young age. Maybe TACK and FEAR can guide you in a direction .

     

    I have posted that value investing and dividends should be paramount if you can stick to that through thick and thin. Compounding really does accumulate if you start in your 20's.

     

    Welcome again and please feel free to ask anything you want opinions on. Most are open to suggest thoughts for you.

     

    What I bet you will hear is NEVER put all your investments in ONE stock..
    15 Jul 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • beauW
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. I am very grateful for both.

     

    I pay $7 a trade and I am reinvesting my dividends.

     

    I appreciate your advice and thank you for the link.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "FOMC Minutes: Several on the committee saw tapering as likely and warranted soon, but many want to see further improvement in the labor market first. Several want to see faster economic growth in addition to improvement in employment."

     

    Ok, so are we getting tapering or not? They sure know how to say nothing imo..
    10 Jul 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13539) | Send Message
     
    Since this blog has found everybody ruminating on everything from investments to sports stars and is often debating what the market or gold is going to do next week or in the next few months, I thought I'd offer a different perspective for investors to ponder, especially those young investors with decades of future in front of them. I was prompted to make the following brief observations by two unrelated events, which occurred yesterday, as I was flying from Tampa to Monterey, California.

     

    During my flight I was reading a most fascinating book, which I highly recommend, titled "The Disappearing Spoon," by Sam Kean, which is a wonderful, story-laden history of the creation of the Periodic Table of Elements and of the discovery and uses of the elemnts, themselves. If that sounds dry, it isn't; it's a great story of genius, intrigue, mistakes, human foibles, scoundrels, you name it. Absolutely incredible what's been accomplished in less than the last 100 years.

     

    Just a great read. That's the first event, to which I referred.

     

    The second "event" was seemingly innocuous enough, but the readings, above, about man's progress made it all the more vivid. That event was taking a surface-transport shuttle bus from my arriving flight at LAX to my departing commuter jet to Monterey. The shuttle buses at LAX have to go on circuitous routes far out on the airport taxi ways, very close to the main runways and far from the terminals. It's a perspective that many travels never get from either the jets or within the sterilized terminals.

     

    What immediately strikes one, as they are proceeding down low, in gnat-like fashion across the tarmac is the utter enormity of a modern large airport, the planes, the operations, all of it. It's just overwhelming in its scale. And, I immediately thought that only 100 years ago, man had no idea, much less expectation, about air travel, and a couple of bicycle makers from Ohio were trying to get a rickety craft off a beach in North Carolina. And, not much further back from that, man was rising horses for main transport, much less planes, or even cars.

     

    And, back to that history of the elements, it was only 80 years ago that the first sulfa drugs were discovered and created that for the first time altered routine minor infections from being a death sentence. And, of course, modern antibiotics have existed more briefly than that.

     

    Again, the progress on some many fronts in 100 short years is almost incomprehensible. And, now, with computers, it's only accelerating.

     

    So, what does all this have to do with this thread and investing?

     

    Well, it places into perspective the colossal achievements of which man is capable and the unlimited abilities of the human mind. The future isn't "over," or limited or dark, like naysayers and pessimists would have one believe. Looking back 50 or 100 years from now will, no doubt, be equally astounding.

     

    Those that plan for and invest in man's expanding needs, wants, abilities and creativity will be rewarded. Those that only measure in the short term or that think man's best days are past and prepare for endless bad times, or worse, will be sorry for their pessimism and shortsightedness.

     

    Everybody gets to make their own choices in these matters, but they should choose carefully.
    10 Jul 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Meanwhile, gold up again after Fed shows true colors. Silver too.

     

    No one saw that coming, right?

     

    Fed Officials Showed Worry About Easing Policy
    http://bit.ly/12muXkj

     

    Off to Vegas for FreedomFest.

     

    I copied this from a prior chapter posted by Doug. Just thought it should be brought here for discussions either in agreement or disagreement !
    10 Jul 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    @doug
    Seems a little early to be claiming victory,, :) up $6 --?
    First real test will be around 1300 , if it can get there

     

    We at least agree on the " no taper" this year ,

     

    Enjoy freedomfest ! :)
    10 Jul 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13539) | Send Message
     
    F&G

     

    If we see continued consumer credit numbers, as just reported, you can rest assured we'll have tapering, if not cessation.
    10 Jul 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2385) | Send Message
     
    Hello Tack,

     

    Great comment. First, thanks for sharing your thoughts on The Disappearing Spoon. My wife and I were talking about this book the other day as a possible read and we may look to buy it on your recommendation. Sounds fascinating.

     

    I also agree with you 100% about the long-term view that you expressed in your article. Although I have been generally bearish on the economy and markets, I consider this a short-term view brought about by the unwillingness of policy makers to allow the capital system to go through its necessary adjustments so that it can move on to its next growth phase. I am a very strong believer in the human instinct to adapt and innovate, and just as the last 100 years has brought a tremendous amount of progress and innovation, I am even more excited about what is likely to come over the next 50 to 100 years, as the growth potential is tremendous both in the U.S. and around the world in markets like energy, manufacturing, health care, technology and communications. This is why I continue to anticipate getting the current challenges behind us and take on the final cleansing so that we can move on to the next great growth phase.

     

    Outstanding points as always.
    14 Jul 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Eric,

     

    In one little paragraph I think you expressed the views of many who are long term positive but viewed as pessimistic for short term views.
    Well stated.

     

    The technology field will likely bring about changes we can just barely imagine.
    14 Jul 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2385) | Send Message
     
    Thanks tampat. I appreciate it and always enjoy reading your comments and perspectives. And I agree with you completely on your point about technology in particular.

     

    Thanks again
    14 Jul 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Interesting article here with interesting charts/graphs:

     

    Bad Omens, by Louis Gave and Charles Gave
    http://bit.ly/12icAtl

     

    Here's a snippet from the article:

     

    2-Another bad omen: collapsing silver prices

     

    "Unfortunately, it’s not as if, lately, equity markets have been the only place to lose money. Indeed, as every gold bug has rediscovered in recent months, precious metals have again proven that they are anything but a safe-haven. Still, drops of 30% or more in silver prices do not happen that often: looking back at the past 100 years, such drops have only occurred 11 times. And interestingly, each one of these massive declines marked a significant change in the world financial system."

     

    {chart graphic}

     

    "To cut a long story short, the investment rules after large declines in precious metals were almost always totally different from the rules which prevailed before the fall. More worryingly, each such decline was accompanied by a massive recession/depression somewhere in the world and almost every time by a recession in the US (grey shaded areas), the only exception being 1983-1984 when the Latin American depression did not trigger a US recession but instead a collapse in oil prices."
    10 Jul 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    Nice article. Lets see opinions on this . Curious as to what posters have to say !
    10 Jul 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    How do you interpret today's violatility based on Fed notes?

     

    Anyone one with a clue have an opinion? What was the reaction to the notes?

     

    I can't explain the instantaneous increase? The decrease was either a movement back to where the market was before the notes came out. Or a decease from hearing the word "Fed." Then why did it move back up again after that?

     

    It's noise. But this noise can give clues to the bigger sentiment that will happen as the Fed & rate story continues into fall.
    10 Jul 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    I read a long time ago that if you are a short term trader, to fade the initial reaction to any Fed news. In other words, whatever the initial market move is, do the opposite.

     

    Today for example, the initial reaction was up, so in this theory one would sell (short) the initial rise. Seems it would have worked out nicely, for today anyway.

     

    I have not researched this and don't know if it has merit other than for today. Nothing is 100% and I don't know what % of the time this works, but if it interests you it might be worth further research.
    10 Jul 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    believe u called it - its noise, lets see what develops here in the S & P 1660-1680 range .. Earnings in full bloom next week..
    10 Jul 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    F&G

     

    It's been your stance that it's noise. In some ways that's true. However, it also -micro reflects- the biggest sentiment in investors. So to discover that (which will have intermediate effect), how does one interpret this reaction?

     

    For instance, Is the market still heavily skittish about tapering & rates? Or is this showing that it's built in more?

     

    Is good news going to be good news yet?
    10 Jul 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    best i can describe it -- the market is still trying to figure that out, we are in a transition period, that usually takes some time , and I'm still leaning to further weakness in the short term. We'll see what happens.. another attempt at S & P 1670 or so..? I'm not nimble enough to add any here even for an intermediate term trade.. Just sitting & watching.. I have call positions coming due on certain stocks next week, depending on what happens with that I may do more call writing for income..
    10 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Thanks F&G!

     

    "the market is still trying to figure that out"
    Okay, that puts words to what I saw.

     

    I'm still in cash & I don't want to jump in just as the downturn reaction to tapering talk happens. It's such a classic retail move to wait till -just- that moment to change plans & get in.

     

    I'm thinking this last week or so was a bounce, then it'll be down again. Then after that remains to be seen.

     

    Also, we still have earnings to come in & influence the mood.
    10 Jul 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @Tampat

     

    That's very interesting. It was true on May22 as well, but because the meeting minutes were different than Bernanke's words. There wasn't time to short today's rise - not without a computer, lol.

     

    Something to keep in mind & keep an eye out for, though? Even media was questioning if tomorrow's upswing will really stick around.
    10 Jul 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    You just highlighted why timing the market is next to impossible.

     

    IMO if one tries to go "all in" then " All out" then try to time when to get "all in" again , in the end will lose a lot of money .. There are some that can , but they are rare.

     

    Market has its own Psychology and its counter intuitive at times, making that form of investing more difficult..

     

    Have a plan, use risk management, invest in increments. Over the long haul , it will give the best results.
    11 Jul 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    "invest in increments"

     

    Good advice, duly noted. Definitely my plan. But I'm still uncomfortable with jumping in at this point. It doesn't have to be completely down, but market needs to feel a little more like the fed downward hysteria is wearing off...
    (Plus I need to develop my plan better, which is taking me time.)

     

    ...right now I can't see how my move will cost me tons of money. As long as I don't delay too long & lose too much dividends. I'd miss some upswing, or downswing, is all... and go back to my buy & hold...
    11 Jul 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    BB cannot not stop printing. Unemployment is up, so the printing presses on running full steam.

     

    He has no exit strategy ! This is why the markets are up over 150 points today. No other reason..

     

    I don't accept any other reason right now..imo

     

    Gold and silver heading higher as the economy isn't healthy, sorry folks it isn't !! In fact deflation is here !

     

    This isn't normal trading..
    11 Jul 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    He has an exit strategy. And when he announces it again after the markets are flying "too high", they'll be down again.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    That strategy was meant to be very short term, as in day trading.
    One would have shorted that initial spike higher but closed out the position before the markets closed.
    I dont think it carries forward any meaning to the next day.
    Yes, you would need to be monitoring the chart prices right at the time the news comes out and react quickly.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    I would expect you to be uncomfortable jumping in now.. IMO that is prudent. Work on your plan.. get a list together of div or any other stocks u are interested in.. Be patient.. You aren't missing anything if you are looking a few years out.. The dividends will be there , just need to pick a good entry point on each individual position. There will always be opportunities.

     

    In the short term, the S & P has a hurdle to clear in the 1680 or so range , if it fails , I believe we head down... so maybe that will be an opportunity..
    Have a portion (majority) of what u want to put in equities in the div. growth area, portion for intermediate situations , maybe a portion for selling calls- and always , always leave yourself with cash .
    

     

    11 Jul 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    It, Curls,

     

    IMO , There was nothing new in Bernanke's statements .. maybe i missed it.. Nothing has changed except the knee jerk reactions of short term traders..

     

    What i did hear is the media interpretations, One day he is "hawkish" , last night he is 'dovish" ?? .. Make for nice headlines - nothing more..
    11 Jul 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    What I heard is basically dancing around tapering. Some want it, some don't..

     

    How many months do we need to hear this same swan song. You are correct nothing NEW was said so everyone expects the morphine to continue.

     

    Headlines isn't what is important. No exit strategy that they agree on is !
    11 Jul 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Agree the headline isn't important, my reference to that was the impact on the short term mentality and the market reaction we see today. Similar to how the market reacted to his earlier comments and dropped the market 6% ..

     

    So my take is the same.. LT equity holders , stay the course, use any strength at these levels to harvest more profits that can be put back to work , when the opportunity arises...

     

    We have a diff. view on the "exit strategy" question..

     

    What I can add is that i already have heard the same commentary from a client or two this morning that has sat on the sidelines . This is all going to end badly" What is he (Bernanke) doing ?. I can't get into the market now. The same words that were spoken to me when all of this started.. I hear the animosity toward the fed in their voices, and it goes back to the only point i have been trying to make here and elsewhere , its what we were given, the cards that were dealt.
    The other e- mails i got today,, isnt it great, lets take some money out of this position its up 32% , raise some cash,, maybe look for a better spot.. -

     

    Investor A , had their convictions and now blame the fed, , Investor B has "listened" to the message & has booked profits and built nice income portfolios.

     

    Can't gloat , can't have sour grapes, these are facts, i deal with them now almost on a daily basis.. Investor A vs. investor B . I understand peoples convictions , therefore i don't judge..

     

    Maybe i'm twisted , but i simply cant see the benefit of continuing the practice of fighting the present investment environment we are in.

     

    I think the examples i cite show how that hasn't worked..

     

    Just my thoughts - market is up , gold is up.. time to look for opportunities.
    11 Jul 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    ANYTHING can have either a negative or positive effect on the markets. Long term I am not so sure those who stay in and have a 10 year horizon will be happy once QE'S end.

     

    Sure the last 4 years have been great. But as a gambler my winners always felt good, but my losers hurt for days!

     

    Let's see where we are in 5 years in the stock market. You may be right, I may be right. But just looking back 4 years isn't enough for me to be honest.

     

    What did you tell your investors for those 10 flat years in the S&P while gold went through the roof? You see I can pick a different time period and just spin this argument around.

     

    That little 7% blip might be just a warning of what is ahead once the herd runs for the doors, and we know a ton of people are just gambling now because the banks give them zippo.

     

    Not sure that many of them have become long term holders..

     

    We shall see what exit strategy they have. I haven't read a concrete one yet, although I do see plenty of damage control once BB speaks. So I just think they have no plan. What do you think it is ? Please explain it.

     

    Thanks!
    11 Jul 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I think the long term market results speak for themselves,

     

    The 10 yr flat S & P folks , added to their wealth with dividends and dividend growth. I didn't have to tell them anything..

     

    The folks that are getting zippo form the bank were told that was going to happen when QE started, & they will continue to get nothing on there money markets for the foreseeable future. One has the option now that one had back when it started, accept it , generate income from the market, don't accept and sit back and wait for the environment to change, in the interim not adding to the bottom line..

     

    I always hear about the "disaster " that will befall us when the herd runs for the exits, As i stated here to Doug, if u employ risk management , there is plenty of time to trim down equity exposure and leave yourself with an income portfolio from dividends.
    The charts that a lot of people scoff at tell us that .. ( or use the tried & true 20% bear market threshold to manage risk)
    In contrast i didn't hear anyone commenting on trimming their PM holdings while entering the bear market for Gold.. Look back and not e that i quoted to Doug that risk management should have been employed for Gold at a price of 1500... All markets will have their "exits" , its how one handles those events..

     

    In my example , Investor B has booked profits, so if the "trap door" is sprung , the pain is tolerated. Doubters of the market rarely want to account for that - not to mention the div income they are "stuck " with in a zero rate interest environment..

     

    They also lose sight of the fact that the people that watched their portfolio go thru the worst financial crisis in history , sat back and did nothing, have larger balances now in their equity portfilios than before the crisis.

     

    --just an observation ..
    11 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    "The folks that are getting zippo from the bank were told that was going to happen when QE started, & they will continue to get nothing on there money markets for the foreseeable future"

     

    Now to you that may be a good reason to invest in stocks.. I think just the opposite! It is called a bubble.

     

    Just my opinion.

     

    Factor in inflation and you did not make money for those 10 years either. But everyone has their reasons why we are where we are.

     

    Enjoy your day!
    11 Jul 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @ IT, FG

     

    I ignored my holdings from post crash '99 to April '13. My money grew 2.7x (doubled, then some). That's without savings in that time. Some was in 5% CDs, a CEF, but plenty was in the market. That flat market did give me growth, I assume by dividends for the large caps -- and 70% was in small/mid caps. (None was in PM since I haven't a clue about those.)
    11 Jul 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    "That flat market did give me growth, I assume by dividends for the large caps -- and 70% was in small/mid caps"

     

    70% in small/mid caps might have done the trick. But not the S&P.
    11 Jul 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    If all one's money is in S&P ETFs, that's not diverse enough... S/M usually do better over long haul & I saw they were edging better, so I left it all there...

     

    Plenty of people were disappointed in the last decade & it's a factor to consider. I'm just adding my lone little data point. I can't even say for sure how it grew.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I agree but I know some average Joes who just owned the S&P 500 index as suggested my many magazines and articles.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For all you oils experts. Is this a buying opportunity for this sector?

     

    "It's another rough day for the big refinery stocks, whose margins are getting squeezed in the collapse in WTI-Brent spreads. Alon USA Energy (ALJ -9.1%) is hit especially hard after Barclays warns of a possible downside surprise in its upcoming earnings. Also: ALDW -5.9%, CVI -5.4%, CVRR -5%, TSO -4.5%, HFC -3.6%, PSX -3.3%, WNR -2.6%, MPC -2.6%, NTI -2.5%, DK -2.5%, VLO -2%."

     

    @TRUFFEL might have some thoughts on this ..Open to all..
    10 Jul 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT,,

     

    refiners have pulled back after a decent run this year , due to the info cited in that post.

     

    I missed any run up in those stocks, not much of an opinion here, I do like 3 U.S. Oil exploration co's (CXO) , (WLL) , (ROSE) , I recommended them on 5/19 . CXO @ 82.5, WLL @46.5 , ROSE @ 46.90
    No dividends here , looking for growth & appreciation,,
    Slightly higher now, would look at them on any pullback .
    Full disclosure I own CXO & WLL....
    10 Jul 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10447) | Send Message
     
    Woah.....After market Gold up $23.00 at 7:00 PM ET.

     

    http://bit.ly/93Fihn

     

    Ooops...... now $26.00.
    10 Jul 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    That is because the dollar tanked after BB and then the BoJ meetings. All commodities are up and they yield on the US 10Y is down.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Didn't take long for that nice move to reverse... midnight and all gold and silver after market gains are gone.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Gold's still at the risen price of $1285 at midnight. http://bit.ly/Lls77c

     

    @Notrub
    I couldn't get my head around it till I realized dollar went down has BB talked. Though I didn't follow why it went down? I assume yield went down because bonds became more popular since BB stated outright rates will stay down. I missed the BOJ meeting - I was listening to CNBC or Bloom & didn't hear mention of it...!
    11 Jul 2013, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10447) | Send Message
     
    (NUGT) up 22% today. That's impressive.

     

    I have taken a LT position in NUGT that I don't intend to sell until the price goes back over $80 a share. One can buy 1000 shares for $6k today - $5k yesterday, and under $5k recently. Set it aside and just wait - that's what I am going to do.
    11 Jul 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Gold is sneaking up on that $1300 number pretty quickly huh??

     

    Still gonna short it?
    11 Jul 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    IT ,
    I 'll watch the price action, & let everyone know,, may start to scale into a short 1300-1350 at first.. with a mental "stop" around 1400 . which would be around 7% from start. As with any "trade" , u watch the daily movement to confirm your theory or admit your mistake.. This is no different..

     

    Now if I may ask if anyone has bought here or if they are buying now? Would be a good comparison.. for the short term..

     

    Long term I believe that Gold will remain dormant for a long time after it finds its resting place...

     

    We shall see... It will be interesting..
    11 Jul 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    10 Jul, 11:19 PM Bank of Japan: No change in policy. The Japanese economy is "starting to recover moderately," median inflation forecast is cut to 0.6% (from 0.7%), and real economic growth forecast falls to 2.8% from 2.9%. The yen strengthens on the news, rising 0.83% against the dollar to ¥98.81 at last check.
    The dollar has fallen from 101 Yen to 98.81. It is back up to 1.31 Euro and 1,52 Pounds.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    Time to look at DUG. Summer price with egypt and this will end. Not sure it stays above $105 much longer. Not months any way.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Double,

     

    May not be a bad idea for the short term , however lots of people just got smoked shorting oil less than a week ago, with the same theme.. May see 110 before 100,, so it will require patience..

     

    Just my .02
    11 Jul 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    I would not argue where the price goes for the time being.. I just think this will end at the end of summer and we will see price come down so its time to start looking at it and doing some DD if one agrees.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5277) | Send Message
     
    Double,

     

    agree , think we are saying the same thing, I sometimes use that as a "hedge" against a portfolio with a lot of exposure to "energy" names.

     

    Works well , especially after a nice run ..
    11 Jul 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    Arne Alsin - any opinions on his investment style & top 10 picks?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    His followers seem enthused.
    11 Jul 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    I went back through all of the articles he has posted and the only "investing style" I could find was:

     

    Arne AlsinComments (297)
    Arne Alsin 2389
    Followers14
    FollowingFollow I've been in investment management since 1990. Received my law degree from the University of Oregon in 1984, worked as an accountant for the international accounting firm KPMG Peat Marwick, then got involved in investing. I've written over 300 columns for The Financial Times, TheStreet.com,... More
    Company: Alsin Capital Management, Inc.
    Latest StockTalk
    Hope you're making money in this bull market, lots of good ideas here: http://bit.ly/17tAqce
    May 28, 2013
    Latest articles & Instablog posts
    1.
    IBM: The End Is Near
    2.
    Is This Really A Bull Market?
    3.
    Arne Alsin's #1 Pick: Amazon.com
    Commenter
    (309 comments)
    Author
    (34 articles)
    StockTalker
    (1 posts)
    Send Message
    Very good, exactly the point! Like post-Great Depression, the scars linger, and investors won't love stocks for a long time to come... as a long-side only investor, I can't imagine a better backdrop.
    1 Feb 2012, 06:08 PM

     

    If you mean long only investor, then yes, his picks would also fir my investing style of DGI. I would still have to do my due diligence on his stock picks to see if they meet my criteria. Just like I do with any other author.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    I've read a few of his articles & his pick returns have been impressive.

     

    So I'm wondering if anyone's followed him & developed an opinion already.

     

    (I didn't mean anything in particular by "investment style" other than his choice of stock research & picks.)
    11 Jul 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some here feel that QE has nothing to do with the stock market. Today should just confirm "that if they print investors will come" !!

     

    Pump the morphine >>>
    11 Jul 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Thats right IT
    11 Jul 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @IT

     

    I think...No one says QE has nothing to do with the market. It's obvious investors react to QE words. Commenters say it has nothing to do with the market fundamentals. And that is a debatable topic in many directions.
    11 Jul 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    We have posters that do say QE has not made it into the markets, That if they end it will have no effect.

     

    So I am sorry but you are wrong stating what you did below.

     

    "No one says QE has nothing to do with the market" isn't factual. Check prior posts!
    11 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4314) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I think we're parsing wording now, not meanings.. Several say it doesn't effect the markets fundamentally (i.e. hasn't made it into the markets & won't matter when it's done.) We agree that there are posters here with that view.

     

    I'm saying that QE does effect the markets on a hysteria level, & that everyone agrees & sees that. (i.e.my quote that no one says QE has nothing to do with the market.)

     

    I think...we're missing each others meanings in the wordings.

     

    (In comments above too, my reply to you was on how I interpreted your words. Your answer there told me, I missed the full thought & mis-read it. I suspect that was true here too with my answer to you.)
    11 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    I am in the camp it may be more then just *hysteria*.. I think it is damaging the markets. Time will tell..

     

    Traders feel the same, maybe they are wrong?
    11 Jul 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11423) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    OK, MOVING ON TO THE NEXT CHAPTER.

     

    Trivia??
    11 Jul 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Charts showing bull and bear markets since 1877. Also, a few charts at the end showing the demographics changes in the US.

     

    http://bit.ly/14gHN51
    11 Jul 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
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