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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 24............  172 comments
    Jul 11, 2013 10:23 AM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Post Away !!

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Comments (172)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Big Ben say anything we did not expect?

     

    Ok,,,# 24 ..Best athlete ??

     

    Start posting !!
    11 Jul 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2380) | Send Message
     
    IT-

     

    It is not clear that you will get a lot of answers right away from folks other than those who were there in person, as most who listened live on C-SPAN have already changed channels; and so far only 33 have actually taken the time to listened to the recorded comments on C-SPAN. Q&A starts shortly after 28:00.

     

    I am unable to find another source for a transcript of the Q&A, so if someone has a good link for that it would be a possible useful basis for opinion, or we can continue to rely on the talking heads notetakers & scriptwriters to tell us what they think their boss's boss's boss thinks we should believe about what he meant to say, lol.

     

    http://cs.pn/155xlue
    11 Jul 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    I don't ever remember the Q&A's being posted. You can google "Chairman Bernanke's Q&A on the Economic Outlook" and sometimes find the transcript.

     

    You can find copious amounts of things the Fed posts here.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/13DRkol

     

    Click on "Testimony" up on the left to find the actual "Economic Outlook" that BB does the Q&A on.

     

    At the end of a FedDigest email for the Q&A, you will find this...

     

    "This material is intended for authorized users only. No unauthorized distribution"

     

    So I don't know if the Q&A is published.
    11 Jul 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    Interesting comment from the Q&A

     

    "Warren Buffett has described our stock markets as waiting, quote, "on a hair-trigger from the Fed." Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher described stock markets as, "hooked on the drug," of easy money.

     

    So can you comment on your guidance? And can you comment on Mr. Buffett's and President Fisher's comments?

     

    I think not speaking about these issues would have risked a dislocation, a moving of market expectations away from the expectations of the committee. It would have risked increased build- up of leverage or excessively risky positions in the market, which I believe the unwinding of that is part of the reason for some of the volatility that we've seen."

     

    I've been wondering if the recent tapering talk has been about testing the waters. BB seems to be confirming that it is.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Are emerging markets down everywhere - or is it primarily China?

     

    They're down more than any other market. Was / is it the "recession" (or whatever you call this)? Or something else?

     

    I had a good smattering of domestic efts, but needed to figure out foreign market investments (via US exchanges). I'm inclined to buy ETFs (& skip conscious Forex issues for now by going for individual stocks.).

     

    Any suggestions for a good layout of foreign ETFs or other vehicles?
    11 Jul 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    Might look at the emerging markets ETF (EEM) or the China ETF (FXI) they are flying today.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Well, the REITS and mREITS and even the BDC's may have gotten a reprieve.
    Might be some decent deals available now in that area.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    Thanks for all the ideas!!
    11 Jul 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Just like there is only one #23 that can truly be considered the best, same is the case for #24 Willie Mays.
    11 Jul 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RICH

     

    You WIN...Game over.

     

    Now back to investing all!!
    11 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Wow! Huge surplus in the federal government more than $100B surplus in June. Highest ever on record! Astounding!
    11 Jul 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Common - I wonder if that's because they are playing funny with the debt ceiling and pulling all their tactics to extend spending ability until debt ceiling is debated again. I don't know, just wondering. Hard to imagine a real surplus?
    11 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Input:
    Per Time:

     

    http://ti.me/12uxhB2

     

    "A $113 billion surplus in April was largely the result of income tax payments around the tax filing deadline. In June, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two federally-backed companies that support the U.S. mortgage market, delivered a combined $66 billion to the federal treasury after strong earnings in the first quarter of the year—substantially inflating the surplus sum. Spending in June declined to a level not seen in nearly a decade, falling to $170 billion — the lowest since a $161 billion month in November 2004.

     

    According to a CBO analysis, outlays for student loans decreased by $5 billion, spending on Medicare and Medicaid fell by $4 billion and $2 billion, respectively, and defense spending dropped by $5 billion compared to the same month in 2012 when timing shifts are included. Income and social security taxes increased due to the ending of the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest earners and the payroll tax cut in January, and corporate tax receipts jumped by $6 billion (roughly 10%) due to higher corporate profits."
    11 Jul 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Common Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    What impressed me was the spending level, much lower than expected.
    11 Jul 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Hebba Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (1308) | Send Message
     
    Government spending is being cut, which is something that people have to take into consideration with the market because government provides a lot of money for the economy - that is now being reduced.

     

    I think you will start to see corporate earnings become much softer as Q2 and Q3 earnings are released.
    15 Jul 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • waf76
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    Bernanke definitely didn't say anything we didn't expect. He only can threaten to stop printing but he actually can't ever stop printing. I'm really liking Platinum at these levels.
    11 Jul 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WAF76

     

    I am in your camp where we *hear* that they will stop tapering, and one day obviously they will have to. Now the bigger question is how big of a mess will we have by then??
    12 Jul 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Waf76

     

    There's been a lot of talk about gold/silver in these blogs. (There's a link to Eric's article at the bottom of this chapter as well.) How is Platinum doing compared to g/s? Does it shift & depend more on commercial need? How/where are your favorite ways to invest in it? ...just curious.
    13 Jul 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • waf76
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    @curls-100

     

    Sorry for the late response, I haven't frequented SA much recently. I follow the adage "if you don't hold it, you don't own it". I look at all my PM holdings as a hedge against the western debt based monetary system. I'm betting against the Fed. I know they will always print. There is nothing else they can do. Today is further example. Let the masses be heavily invested in this market. I only have my 401k in it but i also have decades before I retire.

     

    Recently I purchased Valcambi Platinum Combibars. Platinum and Palladium are both up this year. They should perform as silver does meaning they have industrial uses and can be tied to the economy. What I really like about platinum is that it is 30 times more precious than gold and trading at essentially a 1-1 ratio.

     

    I also like China Platinum Pandas but they are quite expensive as their value far exceeds the intrinsic value of the underlying metal.
    31 Jul 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • waf76
    , contributor
    Comments (588) | Send Message
     
    @ Interesting Times

     

    They will never willingly taper or stop. They will print until their is a crisis and the market forces them to stop. Until then its rinse, wash, repeat.
    31 Jul 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Waf76

     

    Thanks for the ideas and thoughts! That debit based system, is a worry and 1-1 ratio is impressive with a useful metal. Some thing for me to research into :).
    31 Jul 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Was it just me, or was trading light today?
    11 Jul 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    It was just you.

     

    If you look at a chart the volume is usually shown, or there is an indicator you can click to show volume. Some charts will include a moving average line across the volume to make it easier to see a rising or falling trend. When prices are trending up with falling volume, that can be a warning sign.

     

    Looking at a chart of the Dow, volume was slightly higher today than Mon, Tue or Wed.
    SPX volume was typical, slightly down from Mon, higher than Tue or Wed.

     

    But someone was sure out there buying. It makes me wonder who is buying in at the highs.
    11 Jul 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Volume increased due to short covering by hedge funds , especially at end of day . They took the wrong side of the equation during the recent weakness and when market broke out today they were caught.
    11 Jul 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    "(NUGT) up 22% today. That's impressive.

     

    I have taken a LT position in NUGT that I don't intend to sell until the price goes back over $80 a share. One can buy 1000 shares for $6k today - $5k yesterday, and under $5k recently. Set it aside and just wait - that's what I am going to do."

     

    WMARKW,

     

    I am replying here as the previous thread is so darn long.

     

    Maybe you are already aware of this, from the NUGT prospectus:

     

    "This leveraged ETF seeks a return that is 300% the return of its benchmark index for a single day. The fund should not be expected to provide three times the return of the benchmark’s cumulative return for periods greater than a day."

     

    My biggest losing trade ever was using a 3x ETF several years ago during the big crash time. When it went the wrong way and I was down 50% I compounded my error by doubling down instead of just taking the loss. After doubling my position, it tanked and tanked and tanked. Then they did a reverse split similar to what GDXJ did recently.

     

    It finally got so low I just forgot about it and never did close it out as the dollar value is just a few hundred bucks for me now. Its so worthless now I just let it sit there thinking if there is ever another market crash it might payoff, but I doubt I will ever get my original investment out of it because over long periods of time they lose the 3x tracking.

     

    It was an expensive lesson for me. I like trading those leveraged ETF's sometimes, but only short term.
    11 Jul 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Good input Tampat.

     

    I'll have to re-consider my definition of long term.

     

    Hmmm on the reverse split? Why would they do that?
    11 Jul 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Because the price gets so low and they redo the companies in the ETF.
    Here is a recent article about it, seems NUGT also did a split too.

     

    "What The Recently Announced Reverse Split In GDXJ Means For Shareholders"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jul 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Where do you see the money printing leaving us one day. What condition will our markets be, our economy, our debt. ???

     

    OPEN TO ALL !!
    12 Jul 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Seriously IT??
    You don't really want me to answer that right?
    ;)
    12 Jul 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Yes I do !!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Who sees the markets correcting in less then 6 months, say 10% down???
    12 Jul 2013, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    Not me.

     

    I see no choice for the Fed but to continue with QE (jawboning to the contrary aside). The employer mandate for Ocare has been delayed, that means less taxation via regulation, and that means less price fixing, which means less shortages, which is better for employment (not good enough to stop QE, but enough to keep fear abated and risk-on going). Finally, the rules for Dodd Frank were announced to be finalized by the end of the year. That means they won't get implemented until later in 2014 and the effects won't really kick-in until 2015.

     

    So, just from a 30k foot level, I see the conditions for risk-on to continue, thus equities up and yields up. We could see 1800 by the end of the year and 3% on the 10yr. The only thing that may slow the rise in treasury yields, could be capital flight from Europe, and I can see more storm clouds gathering around Greece but mostly France. If the cameras get turned back on in Europe, we could get some capital flight that lowers treas yields.
    12 Jul 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    IT the market looks extremely bullish to me for the rest of the year. The economy is coming back baby! It's been agonizingly slow, but is slowly getting better. Fingers crossed the recovery continues.

     

    There are some bargains out there. Recently I bought Duke Energy (DUK) and Con Ed (ED) 2 utilities that dipped. For the first time, bought some reits (ARCP), (DLR). Digital Realty (DLR) is up 5.45 % the day after I bought in. (MAIN) is a new position for me, it was down due to the taper caper. Now let's see if the Bernanke Bounce lasts.

     

    Because I've been following Bob Wells, Chowder, and the dividend growth investors - DGI guys - I've decided to sell all my bonds. Now I've got to figure out what to invest in. Slowly I will go into low beta (that means low risk), solid companies with growing dividends. Like (KMB), (PG), (LMT), (GIS), (KRFT), (MCD). Check out Chowder's blog & Bob Wells articles for info on the "CCC" companies.

     

    I did buy one fund because the dividend is very tasty. Pimco Corporate & Income (PTY) has an 8.36% dividend. It dipped a few months ago, now up over 3 % since I bought it just 2 days back.

     

    Another company that is going to make money is Cummins. Check it out, this company will benefit from the switch to natural gas engines.

     

    Even at high valuations, it's worth going into quality companies. If there are future dips or a correction, I'll keep some cash to take advantage of that. When you have an income producing portfolio, then the dips are your friend because you are constantly re-investing. Chasing high yield risky companies can lead to losses, especially considering that had you bought a great company, you would at least recover faster & make income along the way.

     

    Here's why I finally lost my bond liking. Let's say you buy a bond for $50,000 at 6% interest for 20 years. Great, you make $3,000 a year X 20 = $60,000. Sounds great, right? Now let's see what would have happened if you bought (MCD) in 1993. It was about 12.50 depending on when in 1993 you bought it. Today (MCD) is about a $100. That's an increase of $87.50. Okay, that's roughly 8 times, so it will rock your world that $50,000 times 8 = $400,000.
    Folks, that doesn't even include the dividend growth. With the bonds, you get a $60,000 profit. With (MCD) you get at least $350,000.

     

    Of course we probably won't see (MCD) increase 8 times in the next 20 years. But I'd still rather own (MCD) then a bond because I'm positive I can do better than $60,000 in 20 years.
    12 Jul 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Blue sky,
    Like your picks, (CMI) , I'm also looking at (CAT) , (already Own), and (DE) , cyclical plays out of favor right now , that pay decent div. and are dividend growers. They are the premier companies in their respective space.. (DLR) was an absolute steal under 60, (already own) . (O) & (OHI) , two more quality beaten down Reits.
    (MCD) , waiting for that pullback.. :)

     

    Smart to get out of bonds, You represent a sampling of investors right now that are doing the same , & have the question of what do i do now.. IMO we are very early in the "bond" rotation , people are looking at those statements and are in shock. It will only get worse.

     

    A little more cautious than u at this exact moment, but it looks like u got into some nice situations.. I'm always waiting for that "perfect Moment" on a stock, sometimes i can be too fine with my entry points.

     

    Best of luck ..
    12 Jul 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    Anybody who approaches the market as a guessing game, as to when it might have a "correction" and what amount that might be, is unlikely to be an investor who does well over time. One must seek out and make judgments about the value of individual issues, not rely on one of those floating eight-balls for making prognostications.
    12 Jul 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I throw out these questions to get a conversation going otherwise this link might just die. As you see a few people responded by listing the stocks that they like. You made a valid point but I guess just misunderstand my intent.

     

    My hard work it to have people continue a dialog, that's all.

     

    Just go with the flow...
    12 Jul 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @HOOP

     

    So when does the printing end? What needs to be accomplished to do so. Then the final question is what shape will we be in ?

     

    This is always open to all as well..
    12 Jul 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    So for a long term investor looking for an entry point do you suggest entering now or waiting for some type of pullback?

     

    Again, this is open to all and please understand I am asking questions thinking of the lurkers as well. We have dropped to #4 for a reason, just not sure why.

     

    So I am looking to stimulate a conversation here as articles do yet blogs just don't unless a question is posed. So I will pose em!
    12 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I agree Tack but with our very unpredictable and ever changing world isn't it difficult to even take an educated guess as to where things will stand say 5 years from now? Who knows who will replace this disgrace of a President in 2016 and how they will do? I think a lot of things depend on our next President.

     

    This is one reason I like silver over the long term. Perhaps the only things we can indeed rely on are death and taxes but silver, and gold too, have value, always will and seem likely to rebound. The rest of it is very much a guessing game. Granted, we can be well informed and make our guesses more educated than not, but with so much uncertainty even just a few years ahead, I think we're all guessing when it comes to investments.
    14 Jul 2013, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    If I may offer and opinion...

     

    "So for a long term investor looking for an entry point do you suggest entering now or waiting for some type of pullback?"

     

    As a long term investor I think it is difficult and somewhat foolish to try and time the market and guess on a pull back. Short term investors need to do such analysis but as simple as it may sound, the way I look at it is, if I am long on the success of a stock, fund or commodity, does it really matter if I buy today or tomorrow at 5% less or three months from now at 10% less??? Of course we want a bottom but I also want to hit the lottery tomorrow and that is not happening either. In my opinion, if you strongly believe in the long-term success of an investment and you are somewhat confident we are near a bottom, why wait for it to make a run upward and miss an opportunity? I believe silver will hit $50 per ounce within the time frame of 8 years which I am willing to wait. Whether I buy at $20 today or $18 three weeks from now (if it drops) is not worth the risk of a rebound which I also believe is very possible when in the end I will do quite well at that $50 level I fully expect.
    14 Jul 2013, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    Lots of uncertainties, crosswinds, to any LT forecast etc.

     

    IMO "Risk management" is a better way to approach the markets.
    14 Jul 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Rich,
    understand your "conviction" regarding silver. U do have the fact that if u are a buyer here u certainly aren't buying at the highs.

     

    But to state silver will be @ 50 /oz in 8 yrs would be like me stating the S & P will be at 3400 in 8 yrs. Believing in the "absolutes" is a recipe for disaster.

     

    This is what one may be faced with , What will you do in this scenario, buy here at 20 , see price go to 40 in 3-4 yrs. sell, buy more, do nothing ,? or buy @ 20 go down to 10 , sit there 3-4 yrs later, sell , buy more, do nothing, ?

     

    Better to make a decision, "Monitor the situation as events unfold", deploy risk management, whether it be a stock,PM or Bonds.
    Just my .02

     

    14 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    rich, F&G, others:

     

    I keep watching this ongoing jousting about where equities will be in some future date versus gold, silver or Dunkin Donuts. The reality is that nobody knows.

     

    What I do know, however, is that I maintain each and every year a portfolio that yields on an aggregate basis over ~9%, or more. In eight years time that 9% compounded yield means that my money doubles, i.e., 99.2%, exactly, just from the yield alone. Price movements may add further or subtract, but that doubling, for starters, is in the bank.

     

    Long experience has proven to me the enormous power of compounded returns operating on predictable payouts. All the rest is speculation. It's fine to try to allocate funds, too, to achieve price gains, but it is certainly nothing that can be predicted with certainty.

     

    This is why decades of investment experience led me to the consistency and predictability offered by yield-oriented value investing. I can certainly recommend it.
    14 Jul 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    I don't believe i have said anything different, my comment on S & P 3400 was meant to show just how ludicrous that is ..

     

    However, in my world, I am constantly being asked for both near term and longer term views on markets. Therefore, I'm prepared to share that opinion, right, wrong or indifferent. Understand where u are , and your success. Not everybody is in your position either in life or with their investments. Not everyone has followed those tried and true techniques their "entire" life. Not everyone is educated in the markets as you. Believe it or not some people come to the investment game much later in life and haven't used your techniques. Some have been there all of their life but haven't deployed discipline , got caught up in emotion and are now back trying to repair the damage.. others simply have never been in the markets. All types , all different cases. I try to Have a "macro" view as a backdrop and realize where we might be in that view, always willing to change. Then adapt that scenario to best fit the person's situation. "One size" therefore does not fit all..

     

    Therefore I try to keep all aspects of markets "on the table" .

     

    Sorry if my "jousting" is bothersome.. There are an abundance of views on the markets both short & longer term that apply to a plethora of "different" individuals.

     

    14 Jul 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    I'm not being critical and think you make comments with which I generally concur, but I wanted to point out to the quiet background audience that there are other ways to make money, and make it far more reliably, than guessing price directions on stocks, bonds or metals. The earlier one starts, the better, but, as shown, 9% yield doubles in only eight years.
    14 Jul 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    your points and techniques used to achieve those results are well taken,,

     

    Enjoy
    14 Jul 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack, & FG

     

    I read Tack's comment about jousting to be generic & not applying to anyone on this blog, but to the world of retain investors in general.

     

    I would hope it wasn't directed at, or included Fear&Greed, for being kind enough to indulge all of us newbies constantly asking "so what's this mean? What's happening next?"

     

    Also, those short term questions ARE valid. Same as the long term ones. To know what you want to do, often you have to understand how the picture moves & then map it to your particular needs. There are very good reasons I've been asking a lot of short term movement questions. Sometimes I outline why - other times, it's not worth making people read my every thought.

     

    The flip side from Tack is also very important -- that reminder that all this "noise" is noise and not part of good long term plans. Fear & Greed has also been saying this (his mantra "it's all noise"). So the more experienced investors repeating the mantra, the better for us newbies.

     

    If it's helpful, here are some of my reasons for asking on these topics:

     

    - Education. I'm moving from a buy & hold of largely ETFs/Mutual Funds to more active knowledge. Knowing all the market's influences & effects, helps get me oriented. Start sorting out what I care about & what I don't.

     

    - Having a feel for the rollercoaster ride, helps me be less "panicky" & keep things make more active decisions.

     

    - Swing trading interests me (for reasons I won't go into). This stuff is important to that. I'll decide later if I really want to do any shorter trades. First I need a set up long term plan.

     

    - I need or want to do some capital preservation - some I'm making some decisions based on that. Short term info is helpful to that. It's not everyone's needs, either financially or emotionally, but it's mine right now.

     

    - Even for longer term, understanding more, helps me know value & when I want to get into a position better. Helps me know what I want to count in & what I don't. (For instance, the noise does effect sector movements, & small re-balances to them over time...)

     

    So it's all good advice. And it's all very appreciated. It also gets more clear over time, that there are key themes that better more experienced investors use. And this theme of "ignore the noise" is one of them. A lot of SA doesn't go with that theme, but it's been one from the experts on this blog... and one reason I've appreciated this blog as giving me a good perspective over when I was just generally looking at SA articles.

     

    My two cents for what it's worth. (More like 4 cents.)
    14 Jul 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    your .04 is always appreciated. I'm sure u have figured this out, Tack , offers solid investment principles that will absolutely work over time. That cannot be disputed.... Valuable advice.

     

    Yep, neither of us like the "noise" ... :)
    next week - two days of Bernanke -- --More "Noise" ? we shall see

     

    All is good ...
    14 Jul 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let me add a point here I have made a few times. Some of my questions are generic in nature and to just get a conversation started.

     

    Like.. What do we think the markets will do this week?, or when does a person expect a 10% correction?

     

    Some are taking this too literal, so before we lose more people because of jousting lets just keep this thought in mind. Newbies like to hear what the older investors think of the next week. Sure in the grand scheme of investing it is a blip that one should not be concerned with.

     

    But you want the truth, it is educational !!

     

    So lets respect the questions, and the answers in a cordial manner. I see it slipping where I don't want it to go, nor will I let it .

     

    Too much is at stake here . Thanks Folks.
    14 Jul 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    All is good,

     

    whats with this "older investors" comment.. ?? LOL

     

    maybe "seasoned investors" - just busting.. :)

     

    Enjoy !!
    14 Jul 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Extremely well put. Everyone's post has a value to someone reading along , EVERYONES!!!
    14 Jul 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    How about OLDER SEASONED INVESTORS??

     

    Speaking of older it is story time. I donate some of my time in the summer to our Condo's younger kids and try to teach them to play *TEAM* basketball. Well most of you know I can't move as quick as I once did. So one kid about 7 years old said I could not guard him.

     

    I looked at my wife and she just shook her head knowing the pain I would be in but I NEVER in my life turned down a challenge. I WILL NOW as that kid blew by me like I was standing still ( I think I was standing still ). The mind said move left, yet the legs said "what are you crazy "??

     

    Point here is I really want us to be a TEAM and at the end of the day treat each other with respect. So lets keep this in mind as a lurker might have gotten the nerve up to post a question then may have backed off.

     

    We want a growing family, not a shrinking one, and I was one of the first to break my own rule of insulting and attacking. Not saying anyone has but keep in mind we have more newbies here then you think. They do need your guidance !!

     

    Thanks, now I have to go soak my aching back ..
    14 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Like the "older seasoned" approach

     

    & the story..
    14 Jul 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    FEAR,

     

    Absolutely, I plan to make decisions as things present themselves over the years. I was making the general statement that I have time to wait to see silver prices get at or near where I would like before considering selling some or all. Also, I didn't mean I expected it to take 8 years to see $50 but rather, I have 8 years as a time-frame. I expect to see $50 per ounce or very close to it long before 2021 and I am not setting a firm price level before selling. Variables over time will surely dictate my opinion moving forward. If it takes five years to break $40, I may just sell and take a decent profit at that point. If it reaches into the 40s within a couple years I would be more likely to hold longer. That's all I was trying to say with the 8 years. Perhaps I shouldn't talk in absolutes but as you know by now, I am quite confident silver does well over the next few years. If I am wrong, so be it.

     

    With that said, IT has told me to move on beyond repeating my plan so I will. I need to keep learning from all of you what to do with my other investment dollars as each annual opportunity arises. So far I am seriously considering one of those BDCs and the recently praised NUGT is another. I am sure several others will peak my interest over time. Just a matter of what feels right each November for me.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    OK, so in other words, we all have various opinions for various reasons at various times and if circumstances change over time we might change our minds too. Glad we got that out of the way.

     

    IMO there is no question that everyone is different in the investment world. So much can be determined based on funds available of course but goals, past experiences and just changes in circumstances. If there are financial advisors out there using a single tried and true method and applying it to all clients, that guy should get into another field.... quick! ... or at the very least, his clients should find another advisor - quick!

     

    What I like about forums such as this one is the diversity of truly intelligent and experienced investors. For me, just reading posts is an incredibly beneficial education although I don't agree with all of them. Still, just reading in here for the past two months I have been motivated to research companies and possible investments that I may have never considered before... so thanks to all opinions and even more, thanks for the reading suggestions... links have been incredibly enlightening.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Very well said in my opinion. I am long-term with pretty much every investment but that doesn't mean i can't change and this group is helping me find and understand some nice choices.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Also, newbies ask about "next week" or the short term to generate opinions and answers from the experienced and then look at what was said and what really happened. It gives newbies a good perspective on whose opinion to hold in the highest regard and why.

     

    The old saying "take it with a grain of salt" should be applied to any opinion but information is knowledge. It's up to each newbie to take a little bit of this information and a little bit of that and form their own opinions and ultimately make their investment choices. That's what I am doing and again, I appreciate all the input as it prompts me to follow up on points of interest (that apply to me of course) and do further research... great learning experience and you can't ask for more than that.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    rich:

     

    "Also, newbies ask about "next week" or the short term to generate opinions and answers from the experienced and then look at what was said and what really happened. It gives newbies a good perspective on whose opinion to hold in the highest regard and why. "

     

    With all due respect, this is baloney. Newbies ask about next week because they are uncertain about what to do and think, from observation and news headlines, that investing is about making endless series of brilliant short-term guesses. Anybody who pursues their investment strategy this way will be dependent on Social Security to eat.

     

    And, it's pointless to ask seasoned investors about next week because they, like the newbies, have no idea, either, and if they pretend they do, then they're pulling your leg. No genuine investor proves his mettle by being right about next week.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I knew that post would get at least one defensive reply but that was a bit faster than expected. At any rate while you cannot completely base an opinion about an investor on next week's prediction you can get an idea from several short term predictions over a period of time whether someone has a clue or is blowing smoke. I also measure a bit of "expert" reliability on sources they provide for good reading which have been excellent in here.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    rich:

     

    I'm still going to disagree entirely, except to say that anybody who even tries to predict every week raises questions about their investing credibility.

     

    Making predictions about next week's actions is a fun game, but it's not different than standing around predicting which color will come up on the next roulette-wheel spin. Even somebody who makes a few good guesses isn't demonstrating any prescience, just temporary good luck.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    I agree that I don't judge an investor by accuracy of his minute to minute predictions. And anyone who's absolute, raises flags for me.
    I do pay attention to the quality of the answers though. A guess stated as a guess is worth more than a "it could go up & down" as though both were the established prediction. That sales job cover-themselves is a flag too. Meanwhile, how well someone explains the market dynamics is a plus.

     

    I also don't agree that it's because newbies are uncertain & overfocused on short term. I listed reasons I ask, in a much earlier post & that add many dimensions to the idea you focus on. Your one idea is a bit insulting... not everyone new is completely that way, that simplistic at thinking. Some of us come to the market with accomplishment & intelligence in other areas of life - that helps us & carry over some to here too.

     

    I'm happen to be paying more attention to short term now, than in my prior many years of being in the market in mutual funds. I went through 3 crashes without a wince. I'm a newbie for sure in this, but I bring something with me.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    I don't mean to be insulting, merely to hold an opinion that there are far too many folks out there, not just newbies, actually, who want to try to either avoid all short-term downs or make money fast on short-term ups, and that it's rarely productive, as they discover over time. Then, after those folks have used up lots of time without the desired results, they feel even more urgency to make money quickly. This is not a good pattern in which to fall.

     

    If we hold different views, that's fine, too.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    I'd agree with your observation. I'm not sure how many folks do that (I don't have a way to know). But I agree, it's tempting & does get in the way of their own best investing.

     

    By saying "newbies" and we've been talking all day about newbies on here... gave the impression it was about US newbies. If you're saying it's about "some" newbies to investing - I'm not insulted at all. I'll just take it as a words of wisdom to keep in mind. :).
    15 Jul 2013, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    I am asking a serious question here. Don't day traders look for the slightest daily if not hourly movements to make a profit?

     

    Not suggesting I agree with this method but aren't trades done this way? Don't traders anticipate a movement one way or another to try and profit from it?

     

    Thanks,
    15 Jul 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    You should not take a general statement as a personal evaluation. I happen to be in the category of newbie too and when I say one can evaluate another on some short terms predictions, I am merely saying that you can distinguish between a knowledgable investor who offers some predictions and reasons for them versus a "know-it-all" who likes to sound impressive. I also didn't mean week by week so literally but rather several short-term picks. As for the sentiment that you cannot judge another on these predictions, I completely disagree. I have been in forums where consistently poor choices have uncovered talkative frauds for what they really were.
    Actually, I don't think anyone should offer consecutive short-term choices at all. Opinion when asked for it is one thing but I have seen members in forums, who consider (or paint) themselves as "experts" offer consistently poor advice and that can be downright dangerous for a newbie and/or inexperienced investor.
    I still maintain that the best information one can offer in these forums are other resources where one can learn.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Yes, and sophisticated program and HFT traders, having experience and lots of money invested in technology can make money, but most amateur retailers get killed. This was especially true in the late '90's when day trading was the rage for a while. Most of those folks have day jobs, now.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I'll add to that question --

     

    Lately I'm hearing a lot about Dividend investing as the best-est.

     

    It seems like a new fad - I hadn't heard it before over the years. So my question, is there some recent research that's shown it's the best?

     

    For years I've heard small/mid caps out run large caps. Solid dividend plays tend to be in large caps, some mid. I've heard diversity among classes & sectors is more key than than anything else.

     

    So my question - does the Dividend focused investing beat all this other long term ways to invest? And why / how do you know?

     

    Also swing traders work harder, but can they do as well over time?

     

    I'd love if everyone who's been focused on dividend planning, gives their views. It's been puzzling me as I've been reading along.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    Glad to be appreciated :). Glad too that all is good !!!
    15 Jul 2013, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    So we have a lot less day traders, even professional day traders now if I understand you correctly? Interesting ...
    15 Jul 2013, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Lots less retailers. I'm not sure about the pros.
    15 Jul 2013, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Is it true that computers are basically running the trading floor now or is that misinformation?
    15 Jul 2013, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    If I could start all over again I would invest mostly in dividend paying stocks. Compounding is amazing. However I have had personal things that changed the course of my investing.

     

    Wouldn't we all want to be in our 20's again? You just asked a great question I hope others respond to as well.
    15 Jul 2013, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    There's a difference between computers that process trades and systems that initiate trades. HFT gets lots of coverage, but these traders arbitrage small differences in quotes and don't seek to apply any direction to markets. Overall, outside of short spurts, I still think people cause the market to move, not machines.
    15 Jul 2013, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Thanks, I appreciate that info.. I am sure others do as well

     

    "systems that initiate trades" is what I need to learn more about. That was my question .
    15 Jul 2013, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ ROS

     

    I didn't take anything as "personal." Please don't tell me how to take things though... even if you meant it nicely :).

     

    I don't have energy on this topic... I think I already agreed with you on a good deal of this.
    15 Jul 2013, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Curls

     

    I reposted this GREAT question in the next chapter. So hopefully anyone who responds to it will please do so there.

     

    Thanks!
    15 Jul 2013, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Currently looking at 335 point gain on S & P (1675) from Nov. '12 (1340) lows or about 25% in less than 1 yr. ---maybe worth noting that the Nov. lows coincided with the numerous talk of economic calamity (pick your topic) , and talk of market being "overpriced"

     

    Beacuse of this run ,corrections are always on the "table" , magnitude unknown.. Easy money has been made --

     

    For what its worth , although we have made new closing highs, I believe we have the real possibility that we stall here at S & P 1680 range , the talk then will be a "double top " pattern ... correction ensuing ..

     

    For LT investors,, some cash should have been raised with profit taking, to deploy when the opportunities arise.. As in most cases in the past , the "noise" as seen last Nov. , could represent another good buying opportunity..
    For those that want to believe we are in 1995 all over again , corrections will be contained as they were last month ---no major pullbacks for entire year..
    Take your pick , You can now see why money managers, face the daily dilemma, where do I put "new" money ...
    12 Jul 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    F&G I like the way you think (because it mirrors mine lol). Here's why the US markets are going to keep going up. They no longer rely on the US economy GDP. Read an article the other day on SA that researched back, showing how the S&P has grown way more than GDP since the 1980s. Why? Well, US companies are global. So as the world does better, somewhere, so do the US companies that are international. Makes sense, right? Now add to that, who can you trust when you invest your money. A Chinese company? H*ll no. Even in emerging markets, you are better off in a US company multinational. The only other country out there with that amount of trust is Germany.

     

    If you go in slow, over time you will do fine. Don't be afraid - (LMT) Lockheed Market isn't going down. I'd stay out of (CAT) unless you are adding to an existing position to lower your cost. (DE) and (CAT) will prosper again but don't overlook great companies like (LMT) and (HON). Plus (NOC) Northrup Grumman.

     

    I had a "wealth advisor" at Merrill Lynch. I'd like to kick him in the ass. He could have given me the (MCD) scenario above, to convince me that bonds were not so great, especially for someone who is 1) not so wealthy that all they care about is preservation of capital 2) not so elderly that all they care about is a steady stream of income & preservation of capital. Instead of educating me, he took every opportunity to make money off of me.
    12 Jul 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Blue Sky,
    I hear that story( Merrill Lynch) a lot, unfortunately they give a black eye to the "advisor" title.. IMO ,not EZ to find an advisor in the "corp. world" that doesn't have his/her company first, client second..
    With that backdrop, Is it any surprise that most advisors underperform the markets ??

     

    Being small and independent - I have to answer to the client , then myself, no pressure from corp world..

     

    You brought up some good names in the "defense" sector , for some reason I have a mental block there, seriously need to take a look at those quality names ...
    12 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    F&G I like your approach with your clients. It's hard to deal with them ( I can imagine) but if they are making $ that keeps them happy ; )

     

    One reason the defense industry will not lose money is the gov't will never stop funding defense. They may cut, but the best companies will survive that. I'm looking to buy (LMT) & (NOC) on the dips. (HON) had done very well for me. (MMM) is anther top company. (ETN) is one of those I should have bought....I remember Cramer talking about it over a year ago. It's way up since then.

     

    Sometimes when Cramer talks up a company, I run the other way. He isn't always right, but he does have his moments.

     

    I like (MO) (LO) (PM) (REI) all good companies with a solid dividend.

     

    Some of my companies don't fit the dividend growth model, but they have made excellent returns. (AIG) (SBUX) and (KKD) are my top stocks so far this year. I'll have to figure out when to sell, but right now the gains are too good.

     

    (WFM) should have been one of my buys, it should go up more. (HD) is another one I missed.

     

    Have a great weekend everyone!
    12 Jul 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    forgot to mention (ABBV). Just bought it today. There some real potential with this company, and a good dividend.
    12 Jul 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    blue,

     

    I totally agree with your comments on owning some defense companies. One only needs look at the history of the US and especially recent history. I'm still waiting for the name change from the Dept of Defense to Dept of Offense. When cutbacks to defense are discussed its usually in the context of cutting the amount of future increases, not true cutbacks. The military industrial complex that Ike warned about is stronger than ever and not going away, so might as well make some $$ from it.

     

    There are a number of good one's, two others to consider are (KTOS) and (http://bit.ly/1dronKV) as well as (TASR) which isn't really military but self defense. They are selling tons of them to police depts and with the tumult surrounding guns it may have a brighter future.
    12 Jul 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks

     

    Thanks for listing out what you follow and why. You have a ton of lurkers who appreciate what were doing. Please keep the ideas flowing !!
    12 Jul 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Yep, thanks! Definitely helpful, I'm laying out a general ETF based plan... then adjusting to add in great companies as I learn how to research them...so it's great to hear names & views of them!
    12 Jul 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    I thought I read a post where this has been mentioned but scrolling back up I couldn't find it, maybe it was a different chapter, so I'll mention it here.

     

    There is an SA writer who has put together a fantastic series of 3 articles showing step by step what you are looking to do.
    He shows exactly how to do the research and offers step by step guidelines on how to simply find the important info.

     

    It is really an excellent series of articles with great information.

     

    His name is Bob Wells and his most recent article came out today and is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    There are links in his article to his previous two.

     

    There is some homework involved but well worthwhile. It maybe the best info I have found on SA to help someone build a quality, top-notch dividend portfolio and he writes in simple to understand terms.

     

    His info is excellent for new or experienced investors and I can't recommend it highly enough.
    12 Jul 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    I posted Mr. Well's latest on Div ETF's in the reading material chapter..
    12 Jul 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Is this info in the Reading Chapter? If not I would appreciate you cutting and pasting it there for all .

     

    Thanks!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Thanks so much Tampat. I'd noticed someone posted about him, but wouldn't have thought to go back to it as a first step, so that will help!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Thanks, I have been busy this week with personal stuff but look forward to this weekend have a cold one and reading over that chapter, I bet it is better then any book on the market thanks to you folks.
    12 Jul 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    .... yep F*G ... now I remember it was your posting & I'd made a mental note. (Often I make a note in a list I'm keeping... I remember the advice much better that way.)
    12 Jul 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Enjoy weekend, i plan on doing the same... :)
    12 Jul 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Looking at end of day run up... and why market stayed up most of day... I'm thinking there's a lot of bull, and effort to get into or back into the market.

     

    ....End of day is when bigger investors make their moves after seeing the days events. So they liked how it held up all day? Plus all day, instead of taking profits being the winning move, it held up.

     

    So instead of double top, this is just on the way up?

     

    Add that the Fed is likely to speak dovishly next week, less hawk than last time (as this week's BB talk indicates), & that will make for happy feet.

     

    It's opposite my original expectations, but I'm wondering about a change of expectations? Haven't read the list of articles out there yet on it.

     

    Any other factors for the big last minute climb? Or other thinkings?

     

    The contrary factor is that if there is something to trigger a downward, there's still so much nervousness, it's likely to really give a correction.

     

    (I'm out in cash, so if there's a change, I need to be ready for it, & not stuck in my old expectation. And ready to gradually get back in sooner than I'd planned.)
    12 Jul 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    lets see what next week brings , Bernanke testimony,, economic reports, earnings, etc. may give a clue as to the next move..
    12 Jul 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    Dont know how old you are or if you can invest for a long term, but if thats the case, waiting for a pullback to get in might not be the best strategy. It may be good to figure out what you want, how much of each you want, how many stocks you think you might want eventually, then you can determine how much to invest in each stock and just stick your toes in. You dont need to open a full position to start. Even if its just a small amount, buy some now. Then if we get a pullback of whatever % you think is good, 5%, 10%, 15%, buy some more then.

     

    The thing is, this market could run higher and then pullback and the eventual downturn may bring prices down just to where they are today. So if you get in small now, at least you are participating and earning some dividends in case the market keeps running higher.

     

    And if a big downturn (crash) comes and you buy more then, you will then be averaging down which for long term holds of quality divi stocks is not a bad thing.

     

    Some people advise buying once a month, or once a quarter, in small amounts so you keep averaging the prices paid.

     

    I am not the most optimistic person in regards to my views on the markets going forward, but thats the strategy I use and I still keep buying small amounts of different divi stocks for my IRA. Not long ago I opened a small position in (GLP), 6% divi. If we get a pullback (I hope) I will get more.

     

    Just a thought or two...
    12 Jul 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Look, at this time I maybe need to explain why I do all this work. It isn't for the money obviously. My intent is to try and get a core group of investors bantering daily about what stocks, bonds, metals, etc they like and more importantly WHY.

     

    I also include a few trivia questions, some joking along the way, to lighten the conversation somewhat. It seems to be working and the blogs say EVERYTHING is open for discussion. I think I do a god job injecting questions.

     

    If a poster wants to talk about Political events , that is fine. It they can even link it to investments , better yet.

     

    But please understand that it can become mundane just talking investments all day. We lose a few poster and then gain new ones. But it is obvious who likes to post here. I did receive a PM from someone who did not care for the sports trivia that start off the chapters.

     

    Sorry, but I am not going to change that. One night a few of us posted for about an hour why we liked a specific athlete. I see nothing wrong with this. I am also shocked that some do. All one has to do is just pass over it if you have no interest.

     

    Read my bio and my blog's goal. It might be outside the box but I am hoping it is working. Now if you want to post or PM me your thoughts on this method that is fine. But I want to keep this fresh. Because we WILL gain new followers by doing so.

     

    Hope all understand my intent here and work along the guidelines. I mean we all did wish TACK a Happy Birthday and also know now how he got his nickname. I think that is great for all of us to humanize this blog some what.

     

    I hope the majority of you agree with this method and as you can see approaching or passing 4 thousand posts already everyone is civil..

     

    Thanks for listening to me and most of all understanding what I am aiming to accomplish.. Appreciate honesty in you folks posting your thoughts on this as well.. I have a thick skin so fire away !! lol

     

    GONNA END THIS WITH A QUESTION. WHAT IS ZIMMERMAN GOING TO BE CONVICTED OF ???
    12 Jul 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Holey moley IT, quite a controversial topic.
    LOL, what will he be convicted of?
    Who knows.
    But in my mind there is absolutely no question that if you consider the most important, relevant information, he should be found __________!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I haven't followed it. But if I did, I'd decide based on physical evidence & not on friends & family's comments. What were the wounds & what did they tell.

     

    So, no idea... but today in D.C. a study showed black folks are getting arrested at a hugely higher rate than others. That's even for non-serious, non-violent infractions. It's obvious it's either conscious system-setup or unconscious inequities that have to be addressed.
    12 Jul 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Just a quick google finds the following factoids:

     

    "Today [May 2011], MPD is commanded by a white woman, Cathy Lanier. And while the bulk of the police force’s officers are black, there’s some indication that the demographic changes the District has seen over the last few decades—a shrinking African-American population and an influx of white and Hispanic residents—are, again, being mirrored in MPD’s ranks.

     

    Police statistics show that since about 2000, the number of black officers has been consistent, hovering at around 2,400. But the numbers also show that the percentage of black officers has decreased slightly, as the total number of cops fluctuated.

     

    In 2001, black officers accounted for 66 percent of the department. The year after that, 65 percent. For 2003 and 2004, 64 percent. The steady drift continued throughout the decade, with a 1 percent drop about every one or two years. Last year, black officers made up 58 percent of the force, with whites making up 28 percent, Latinos 7 percent, Asians 2 percent, and those occupying the category “race not designated” 5 percent."

     

    http://bit.ly/15BCpZt
    12 Jul 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    I'll go with a hung jury !!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    Come on go out on that limb. Your from Florida right?

     

    I say he walks!!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @WmarkW

     

    The article I heard on the news wasn't about arrests per se, but overall results -- so the whole dang gone system. (Sorry I wrote arrests in my first post.) It was a serious study (can't remember who/what but not some fluff bias but g'vt itself or something). And it's being taken seriously. (I'm white per se, & none of it effects me directly.)

     

    Have a good trip to HK!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I am very familiar with this case and I have heard most of the testimony.

     

    I think F&G may be right, could very well be a hung jury.

     

    I do wonder about it being a 6 women jury, no men. I think thats a slight negative for Zimmerman. What happened to jury of your peers?

     

    I dont think they find him guilty of the original murder charge, but since they added the manslaughter charge I think they could find him guilty of that. I think there is decent chance they acquit him also. So there, all 3 options are possible, hard to predict what a jury will do.
    13 Jul 2013, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    Agree with the jury make-up , hard to believe the defense wouldn't have tried a bit harder in jury selection phase to get a man on there, maybe they ran out of challenges..? I saw a lot of the testimony also, I'm kinda torn on how I would vote. I might lean to acquittal , I don't think prosecution proved anything "beyond a reasonable doubt". On the other hand there are those that want to have someone "accountable " for a tragedy like this.. Tough call, maybe he will get that one holdout..
    13 Jul 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Could female jury be on purpose? Women often live in a "defense" mood physically. While many men have gotten into a physical scuffle at some time. So they had expectations that women would "understand" & relate to feelings of defense better? If they did a focus group, it could have concretely pointed to better results with female jurors. ...or they ran out of challenges.

     

    The small amount I saw, left room for reasonable doubt. In theory one other possible explanation is all it takes. In reality jurors often are smart enough to see that - but not always. That he stalked the kid, makes it easier to see it as aggressive overall, even if at the last moment it wasn't. (Similar to if I kill the car driver I've been pursuing in road rage, in "self defense" as he lunges back at me...)

     

    Martin isn't straight innocent. He had ways out long before the critical moment & those count. Same too as a drunk driver is held legally responsible for deciding to drink without a good plan to avoid driving, based on "expectations" of what can happen.

     

    Heck even with kids, when one kids says "billy hit me" that answer is always "so what did you do to billy to provoke him? You aren't innocent & you go to your room too!"
    13 Jul 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Interesting perspective on the all female jury , never thought of that !
    13 Jul 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G-curls,

     

    I would think women might tend to identify a little more closely with the victim and men may be more understanding of Zimmermen having to defend himself and how/why it all happened. Then again, I would think the defense atty's are pretty experienced with picking juries and maybe out of all their choices thats the best they could get.

     

    I agree with F&G about the thought of 'holding someone accountable' being a factor though I think thats a terrible reason to convict.

     

    I would not convict based on what happened. Race and age should be non-issues.

     

    Heres the way I see it.
    The trial is about (or should be about) was Zimmerman in self defense mode when he pulled the trigger. They both made some mistakes leading up to it, but in the end, Martin confronted Zimmerman, they had some words, Martin punched Zimmerman who fell to the ground.

     

    Now, imagine yourself in this situation. You are on the ground, you have been punched and your nose is bleeding and broken, pain radiates out into your face and head and you are stunned. The other guy is on top of you (he may or may not have said 'you're gunna die tonight' as Zimmerman said), but no matter. The guy takes your head and slams it on the concrete. At this point, are you in fear of getting seriously hurt or even killed?

     

    I think that should be the crux of the trial. When Zimmerman shot Martin, was he acting in self defense. At that point, I think he was and entitled to use whatever force needed to save himself.

     

    If I ever found myself in that situation, on my back with someone beating me up and slamming my head to the concrete, its exactly would I would do regardless of the other persons race, gender, nationality or age.

     

    Everything that preceded that just isn't relevant as both parties made some mistakes in their behavior leading up to the physical confrontation and both of them had a chance to just walk away before it got to that point. And walking away is what they both should have done, but its moot.

     

    With something as controversial as this I don't mean to offend anyone with those comments.
    13 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    good analysis, that's why I stated my "lean" to acquit.
    Like u said -- In the end , if you're in zimmerman's position, you have to defend yourself..

     

    Yes its a terrible reason to convict somebody , but many see that "accountability" factor as a plausible answer.

     

    Wonder if they come back this weekend or wait till next week.
    13 Jul 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    " women might tend to identify a little more closely with the victim... "

     

    That would be my first instinct too. In high profile trials they do focus groups. Jury selection is far from chance, even if it's contrary to what seems like the way people would react. If they were cornered into all female, the judge would likely have no choice but create more choices, to avoid an appeal opening.

     

    "Now, imagine yourself in this situation. "

     

    I wouldn't find myself in that situation. Not any more than I would hang with a heron dealer & then gripe when I got cut in crossfire. I'd not have pursued. I certainly don't "go after" anyone & wonder what I'm going to do when they turn on me. I would have called the police, taken photos, & assumed that unless Tray was actively harming someone, it could wait. Right there is what self-defense is. I protect myself at night, & keep "out plans" in mind in riskier settings.

     

    There has to be a charge accurate for his pursuit & harassment.

     

    Hum, and as a woman, I see it differently. Very interesting, & not very helpful for defense. (Tampat I'm assuming gender since I've never asked.) Actually as I said in the beginning, there appears to be reasonable doubt (but not innocence), so I'd acquit, so I'd do fine in their focus group.

     

    I too have no intention to offend anyone. I haven't even watched most of it - so my opinions are fully just opinions.
    13 Jul 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One thing I do expect is these Jurors to spend time making their decision. Already asked for a list of evidence, I suspect they will next ask to see it.

     

    But bottom line to convict you must be able to prove "without a doubt" he is guilty. I just don't see that. But then again I didn't see a 4 hr not guilty verdict for OJ coming either !!
    13 Jul 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    I didn't know you were female and appreciate the view from your gender. I agree with you about your comments on the jury selection process. Good plan to be aware, at night especially.

     

    Here's a sorta funny story. My wife carries a stun gun in her purse and did have to use it once for the first time about a month ago in a crowded Walmart parking lot during the day. Can you believe that? She had just parked her car and was still inside when a guy came up to the door and made threatening comments. She pulled out the stun gun as a warning to protect herself from the offender and she held it up so he could see it.

     

    He backed off and went away and she got out and went into the store. When she came out of the store he was there at the door and just then the police pulled up. He actually called the police and said she threatened him with the stun gun. There were a number of witnesses that backed up my wife's explanation of events and they ended up putting him in the car and taking him in. The police told my wife she did a good job and was smart to carry it. But even funnier, my wife didn't realize that the stun gun was totally dead and needed charged until after she was talking to the police as they asked to see it. They told her it would much more helpful if she kept it fully charged when she went out. Duh.

     

    It pays to be aware of whats going around you nowadays, thats for sure. Something can happen in an instant.
    13 Jul 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMAPAT

     

    Tell your wife she used up all that battery life when she tazed me over a parking spot. Gotta tell you I had dance moves I never thought I had once that sucker connected to my body. lol

     

    Still afraid to go to the mall because of it !
    13 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    That's quite a story! I don't carry anything. Could someone have called the police instead, or backed up the car, or waited it out till he left? That's very funny that it wasn't even charged. Glad she was safe in the end. BTW, I would have gone inside & called the police immediately even after I was safe. Better safe than sorry with the unpredictable sorts. He sounds like an out-of-sanity creep.
    13 Jul 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    Lol. Great way to learn some new moves & impress your spouse, eh?
    13 Jul 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Never knew I could do the *moon walk* !!
    13 Jul 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I told her she should have waited in the store and called the police and she agreed. She thought he was gone and that was the end of it, but you just never know anymore.
    13 Jul 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    LOL, good dance moves huh. You wouldn't be dancing with a hit from this one, you'd be flat on your back.
    13 Jul 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    I am sure you are old enough to remember the worm??
    13 Jul 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Uh oh.. Jurors just asked the judge a question about manslaughter. Wanted a clarification...
    13 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOT GUILTY !!! Nailed it ...
    13 Jul 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Nice call , thought one of the ladies would be on fence or stay stubborn for a guilty verdict..
    14 Jul 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Awesome... justice served
    14 Jul 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    My focus is on the immediacy of investing in the market. Questions from what's good, to how to tell, to timings, to macro of the market.

     

    I'm less interested in economics as a whole & no clue on the sports... but no problem. I glance through ones that interest me, & skip what doesn't. Meanwhile, the personalizing does a tell a lot about folks, so I can know how to incorporate their opinions.. plus makes it much more fun. Best of all.. sometimes a side note leads to the best new ideas.

     

    I have so much to learn that I enjoy all the clues on what's what in the market investing.

     

    Plus it's fun that every once in a while a topic appears where I have expertise & can add in (such as house rental & buying.)

     

    For authors it's good too, that I know to follow & read up on their views once they've appeared here.

     

    I wouldn't read anything into a 1-2 list drop. It's in the top, & getting attention.
    12 Jul 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Friday, July 12, 9:23 AM ET
    "We're trying to make clear to you this would be a dramatic reduction in profits," says Jamie Dimon (JPM), responding (earnings call) to a question about mortgage revenue guidance. Mortgage production could drop 40% if rates stay at their current level, says CFO Lake. Earlier, the bank reported originations up 12% from a year ago, but off 7% on a sequential basis."

     

    Surprised no one made a comment on this yet. I was gone all day yet I think this is important information, am I mistaken??

     

    Mortgage business dropping 40% ? Really>>>
    12 Jul 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    "could drop." That's just a silly article to ignore. Not a fact to discuss, IMHO. A typical cry by media to stir up drama-sounds.
    12 Jul 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    If Jamie speaks then the FED is speaking. He is one of their mouthpieces so he is either sending them a message or a warning , imo

     

    I think the comment warrants attention.
    12 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I saw his interview on CNBC, overall he painted a nice picture of where he sees JPM & general economy going.. I was impressed with his candor, understanding he has to act like the CEO he is and play politics at the same time.. He mentioned plenty of other catalysts to increase bank earnings besides mortgage business. The discussion on recent mortgage rate increase is overblown as usual.

     

    I was hoping for them to sell on the news , and take the stock lower ,it didn't happen, I'm a buyer here on any pullback, decent yield and this is a 65- 70 stock when the dust settles..
    12 Jul 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    How many mouthpieces does the Fed have already?

     

    I still don't get a 40% drop in mortgages because of rates rising to still historically low levels. It's not consistent with any past customer behavior. Rates don't change home buying except very short term. I'd have to see the interview & see if there's more to this, but I can't take this seriously from the quote. Plus for the lower production of loans, there's increased profit (higher long term rates.)

     

    @ Fear
    Maybe he was hoping to sell & take the stock lower too for some short term reason of their own?
    13 Jul 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    I should have added more clarity to my last statement about JPM stock going lower. What I was looking for was the "market" selling off JPM stock on the earnings news ..taking recent profits , etc. .. instead it continued higher..

     

    I like the stock but look for a lower entry point.. Maybe in the near future ? Its on my radar ..
    13 Jul 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    It seems endless to me once they start damage control. Those TBTF banks ALL owe him a big favor...Never forget that !
    13 Jul 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Fear

     

    I was making a joke. Also wondering if on for some behind the scenes reason, it's in the banks interest for the stock to dip & he was framing his words that way to get a market sell down? Never know :).

     

    @ IT

     

    I don't understand your statement? (Helps that I now guessed what TBTF means.) What does it have to do with Too Big Too Fail banks, & damage control & favors? Doesn't seem like his remarks had an effect on anything.
    13 Jul 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12774) | Send Message
     
    Just remember one thing about any and all CEO speeches. They're paid to beat projections, so one of the words that should always be kept nearby when listening is "sandbag."
    13 Jul 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Have you ever watched the HBO movie Too Big To Fail? If you did my statement might make more sense. However if you did not keep in mind those banks were supposedly bailed out and *GIVEN* money to *LEND* out to keep the economy rolling. They never did .

     

    More banks then Lehman were in deep trouble.. Favors are now owed!

     

    I might add I think if you haven't seen it I would consider buying it and watching it. HBO occasionally reruns it, but I know many people do not have HBO . imo WELL WORTH IT !

     

    I have watched it multiple times to be honest! I Tivo'd it and kept it. It might connect some dots for you . Seeing all your posts I think you would seriously enjoy it and understand my comment better ,

     

    Jamie doesn't speak without an underlying meaning..
    13 Jul 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    Ah, quite literally, he'd have motivation to talk down his company in the short term.

     

    @ IT

     

    I never did watch it. So overwhelmed with info. One of these days :). I've know it was all a scam - once you hand out big bucks without oversight - you get it pocketed one way or another. I take it this guy was one of the faster talkers on behalf of the TBTFs.
    13 Jul 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Jamie is the Guru of the bankers. Try to watch that movie. Guess whose bank is accused of all those naked shorts done to suppress the prices of the metals. Just sayin !!
    13 Jul 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10252) | Send Message
     
    Going to HK next week. I'll check out the Gold Market while I am there - see if there are lines out the door.

     

    Have a good weekend (while I sit on an airplane - ugh).
    12 Jul 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    Have a safe trip !
    12 Jul 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2228) | Send Message
     
    Hello WMARKW,

     

    I will definitely be interested to hear your on the ground perspective on the precious metals in Hong Kong. Have a safe trip!
    14 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Using TA in Weintraub's book... these charts for equities look very bullish for the market?
    http://bit.ly/16AvPzy

     

    RSI up. MA up. Prices above MA. Though the breakout above already happened, so maybe not so bullish. Can't tell volume from them.

     

    I'm trying to learn my chart reading....
    13 Jul 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    I read the link. He does have a point and for anyone who doesn't have the interest or time to put in trying to pick stocks a simple portfolio of several ETF's isn't all bad. You don't get the nice divi income but its a simple way to get invested to participate.
    13 Jul 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    That certainly is one interpretation of the current charts, but chart reading is not an exact science, If it were, we all would be very rich.

     

    I use charts as only one, of many tools, to try & define an entry or perhaps an exit point for a stock. I.E. look at current price to those MA's , how far away from those trend lines, look at RSI , is stock oversold (low RSI) , overbought (high RSI). Charts can easily show a picture if stock is in uptrend or downtrend. Then determine next course of action.

     

    Many chartists say simply, buy on the "breakout" , strength begets strength. That's true , but if you are a LT investor u have to determine if you are paying a fair price for that stock. I apply a lot of my own techniques, to determine action from a chart when getting ready for a purchase or sale. After a while u get a "feel" for a particular situation.

     

    Unfortunately no magic formula.. Only tools to use to try & put odds in your favor.
    13 Jul 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    I didn't read the article as recommending ETFs over stock picks. I was looking at the charts as bullishness for the market as a whole in those sectors/caps. Do you see that in those charts too? (You've got more chart reading experience.) They seem very bullish for the message given by "reading the tape."

     

    Why do you say you don't gt the divi income from ETFs? I've held & gotten divs. Don't you get the divs for what's in the basket?
    13 Jul 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    No, the article wasn't advising ETF's over stocks, thats just something that came to mind as I read it.

     

    I agree with what F&G wrote above about charts. I would not use only price to determine what to do. When I said 'he has a point', I was referring to some chart analysts that say to buy breakouts, but I think you have to consider the other metrics also (what F&G said).
    But buying breakouts is a common metric used and thats why I said he has a point. Another is buying at support levels.

     

    Yes, ETF's can pay a divi too, but its usually not very large unless its something like the mREIT ETF (REM), that is around 14.5%.

     

    The stock ETF's are low divi compared to the divi one could get just buying some or many of those stocks and holding. And the ETF's have a fee also, though the Vanguard ETF fees are negligible.

     

    Its hard for me to get too excited over these recent breakouts. As I have said before, I participate in the markets but have more in cash right now than I have invested in the markets.

     

    I think the market is a bubble in search of a balloon.
    The Fed can only do so much for so long and to use another silly saying, there is a lot of crap out there floating around looking for a fan.

     

    The only reason I have any money at all in the markets is in case this misplaced confidence drags out longer than I think it will.
    13 Jul 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Hum, thank you Tampat & FG.

     

    So good to know I'm seeing the charts accurately... but yes, in overall context it's good to be reminded at how hard it is to use a chart as the only point. Also, it's good to know my conservative sense on the market at the particular moment, is matched. So thanks for the more experienced feedback bounce off my observations.

     

    @Tampat

     

    "The stock ETF's are low divi compared to the divi one could get just buying some or many of those stocks and holding. "

     

    Why isn't it the same as holding the same stocks? (Expensive ratios aside.) Are you thinking of how the ETF has a large basket of the whole index, & only a subset are the real div payers so you money gets diluted when it comes to dividends? Or is there another factor?
    13 Jul 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    Good question. Here is what Morningstar has to say about it:

     

    "An ETF that owns stocks will collect the dividends based on the number of shares of the underlying companies it owns over the course of time. Periodically, it will pay out these collected dividends to its shareholders. But what happens when new ETF shares are created? For example, the WisdomTree Equity Income (DHS) had about 3.1 million shares outstanding in June 2010. It paid a dividend of $0.44 per share to shareholders of record on June 30, 2010. This amounted to a non-annualised yield of about 1.4%. Over the course of the next quarter, it collected dividends based on the number of shares in the fund, which averaged about 3.2 million. But in the days before the next dividend in mid-September, the shares outstanding in the fund nearly doubled to 6.1 million. Because the total dividend was now spread out among more shareholders, the dividend per share dropped to $0.20 for a yield of about 0.5%. So, the new ETF shareholders diluted the dividend received by the existing ETF shareholders.

     

    - See more at:

     

    http://bit.ly/18UNMPq

     

    Here is an article that also explains it very well, especially the last 5-6 paragraphs.

     

    "Dividend ETF Party Getting Pretty Crowded"

     

    http://onforb.es/18UNOae
    13 Jul 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    THAT Explains it! I bought a dividend ETF. Also small value or some other cap+style. Similar or same fees, both Vang. My logic a couple years ago was with rates so low, & dividends a buzzword, that would do well as a popular direction. Yet it was the other fund that looked better a couple years later. The dividend comparison didn't hold up for the dividend fund. I bet if I look, it will be something like that.

     

    Much as I love the ease of ETFs as a base --- this may very well be one more reason to push me into individual stocks... at least for the large caps.

     

    This leads to another question of mine - what do you all use to track your stocks & their returns & dividends over time?

     

    @FG's mentioned using google charts, which I haven't explored. Is there any easy pre-set up, I can borrow from somewhere?
    13 Jul 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    Software from AAII, not too expensive. Some offer free trials, im sure there are plenty of others.

     

    http://bit.ly/14RzJWM
    14 Jul 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Eric Parnell, who stops in here from time to time penned this article for those interested in the metals.
    13 Jul 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I read Eric's article and he presents an excellent picture of where the metals stand & paints a very accurate technical picture.

     

    13 Jul 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Thought you would like it !!
    13 Jul 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    he did a good job of presenting both a reason to be bullish and possible reasons to be bearish. Break above the down trending MA or stay below for further weakness. .. After some additional research , I've come upon the "seasonality" issue that may add more fuel for the bulls to push the price above the down trending MA.

     

    Next few days might tell the story..
    13 Jul 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Eric Parnell, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (2228) | Send Message
     
    Hello IT & Fear&Greedtrader,

     

    Thanks for your comment and your kind words on my article. I appreciate it very much, as I value and respect both of your opinions a great deal.

     

    Thanks again.
    14 Jul 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Great article... have to copy and paste the quotes that so accurately express my opinion and why I am still loving long-term PMs (for me silver and this applies)...

     

    "To begin with, gold is not going bankrupt, its balance sheet is not going to be impaired by a major accounting scandal and its CEO is not going to be suddenly fired for personal misconduct. And while it is true that the overall demand for precious metals has been down in recent months, this decline is almost exclusively due to selling by speculators in the paper markets, which makes up only a small percentage of worldwide precious metals demand.
    Thus, the long-term fundamentals remain favorable for the precious metals market despite the considerable short-term weakness that has been particularly pronounced since late last year."

     

    Great stuff!
    14 Jul 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ Eric

     

    I've been over to read your article too... and enjoyed it very much. Gives lots of good thoughts to mull & integrate.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    IT you asked me above if I think this is a good time to buy, since the market is at all time highs. Yes, I think some stocks are fairly priced even now & worth buying. I try to go into a stock in slowly, maybe a quarter to a third of the position I'd eventually like to own. This keeps me from putting $20,000 into a stock & then watching it tank.

     

    Especially with some stocks, we got very good dips in the past month (DUK) (ED) (ABBV) and some others.

     

    If you are buying high quality stocks with low risk, then even if they are expensive, over time they won't be. Take (JNJ) & (KMB) both stocks that are on my buy list. I would buy a small amount, and then spread out purchases over the next say 6 months. If you are reading Bob Wells & Chowder, you will see that over time, high quality stocks with growing dividends will give you the best results, especially long term.

     

    Many investors don't like the "buy & hold" philosophy. However if you do some back testing, and see what you could have done instead of that stock or bond you did buy, it starts to make sense that the DGI (dividend growth investors) are going to make money in the long term - and more money than investors that chase high yields buying lower quality stocks. Plus you're building a steady income stream.

     

    I'll bet we will have a market correction. We had a mini one in June. We might even see another recession, maybe one that will last even longer. If you have these high quality stocks, you will continue to get your dividend, and that will allow you to keep investing in the stock. Plus, in a recession (go back to 2009 to check charts on (JNJ) (KMB) (PG) ) you will see that these high quality stocks didn't tank as bad, and they came back up pretty fast. 2009 was a once in a lifetime opportunity, if we had only steeled ourselves to buy buy buy!

     

    Perhaps the biggest factor for me is that if you buy companies that don't take away their dividend, you will continue to make money even during a recession. If you are in retirement & using those dividends to pay expenses, this could be crucial.

     

    For me, it's all about creating a portfolio of quality stocks that will continue to pay me dividends. I even like the stocks that don't go up as fast better. Like (JNJ) had quite a streak staying at the same price, (PG) same thing. I'm referring to their stock prices for about the last 18 months. Now your dividend will buy more shares, because during those periods, the stock price was stable. Or you could go in a couple of times during that period to buy the stock, if you are lucky enough to be able to do that.

     

    I'm not worried so much that I'm paying too much for quality. I'm more concerned that I'm wasting money on stocks that although they are growing now (KKD) (AIG) (SBUX) what about 10 years from now? Being in a transition phase, I sure don't have it all figured out. When I look back to what I could have accomplished in the last 20 years, it does make me mad at myself! But it's never too late to start & why not buy high quality stocks that 20 years from now will be worth more & will have paid a very nice dividend stream too.

     

    There's a lot of people writing about their experiences as DGI investors. They have really inspired me, especially Chowder and Bob Wells.
    13 Jul 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    blue,

     

    You post is reasonable and contains some good points.
    But here is a problem for many older investors. They don't have enough money to retire on. In a broad based sell off, sure, they will still get the divi's, and even increase slightly due to the lower stock prices, but they can't afford to have their investments pricipal decline by 30-40% or more.

     

    Also, they don't have the benefit of time to ride it out. They will need to withdraw principal to live on. So their options are narrower. Do they risk what they have which already isnt enough or do they just want their money to be safe? Whether it grows or not isnt the main issue.

     

    The wealthier don't have this issue. Their portfolio's can decline 30-50% and while thats no fun, it doesn't much effect their lives unless they have too lavish a lifestyle.

     

    And especially the last 5 years, it is the wealthy who have benefited more than the working class. If this continues this is going to cause a major reckoning at some point.
    13 Jul 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    tampat,

     

    Points well taken, it does come down to where one's personal situation is at when they decide to invest in equities, etc. Different situations render different advice. One has to be mindful of where they are in life and go from there.

     

    There is no "cookie Cutter" approach or "one size fits all " strategy that will work.. Risk management is also sometimes overlooked when investing. One should be applying certain "rules" to contain losses, manage risk, in an attempt to avoid the 30-40% scenario you mentioned.

     

    I think we all can agree there are certain fundamental rules & tools to help us along the way , tilt the board in our favor, but there is no magic formula..

     

    I agree with your statement about the wealthy vs the working class over the last 5 yrs. That gap is widening.. I'm going to take the liberty and add "blue collar" working class here. White collar "should" at least be benefiting by participation in corp. 401k, etc.

     

    This may be a whole new area for discussion, but how is that issue fixed? What are the options to get the "blue collar" involved ? Hasn't it always been that way ? With the idea to lift up into the white collar world to get the next generation a better shot?

     

    I came from blue collar, started there and being very fortunate found a way to the "white collar" world. Maybe I'm wrong and showing a generation gap now but it always took hard work, can't that be done now?
    just questions , not intended to be argumentative..
    13 Jul 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Inzkeeper
    , contributor
    Comments (748) | Send Message
     
    tampat,
    In my (limited) experience the type of quality stocks that Blue Sky is talking about also tend to hold their value in downturns much more than the average. I'm realizing one's goals drive the whole bus. I'm aiming for creating an growing income stream of a size we can live from by retirement (20 yrs). With that time frame I have some flexibility. I've spent the past year transitioning from a 6 stock trading portfolio to a 30 company dividend-growth portfolio. Totally different approach, goals, set of companies, mind-set and stress level.
    13 Jul 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @Inzkeeper

     

    Welcome! Can you share some of your finds.. and resources that youre using to get to your new direction? Also, did you do well with trading in your view? I've always done long term & am learning a bit on trading now.
    13 Jul 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Curls, Innzkeeper has written some great articles about her journey becoming a dividend growth investor. Check out her profile, you will enjoy her articles.

     

    For years, I really didn't know what to invest in. We kept mutual funds & bonds for way too long. I fell for stocks that were gaining in the short term, but were risky stocks that weren't high quality. After reading about buying high quality, low risk stocks with growing dividends here on SA, I started to transition into this kind of portfolio. Learned a lot from Innzkeeper, who lists the authors on SA that she learned from.

     

    In the past week, I have sold almost all of my bonds. The only ones that didn't sell didn't get bids. That's distressing, goes to show that when you really want to sell a bond, there might not be any buyers out there.

     

    I've been buying into stocks on the "CCC" list, which you can read about at Bob Well's SA profile (lists all his articles). You can also get very thoughtful insights from Chowder, another super DGI guy here on SA.

     

    I'm planning on adding to the stocks already owned (some I've held for quite awhile, maybe due to dumb luck!) like (MCD). I bought (ED) (DUK) because they are low risk utility companies with a good dividend that recently became cheaper. (MO) (ABBV) and (BP) are already in my portfolio. I'm planning on starting positions in (CL) (KMB) (JNJ) (CLX) (KRFT) (GIS) (XOM). These are stocks that should form the core of your portfolio as they are very low risk but high quality. I just read an excellent article today about these core blue chips, and how they have out performed the S&P the last 10 years
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    There are many stocks to choose from. (PEP) and (KO) too. Check out the stocks on the "CCC" list (look at Bob Well's articles to see more about how he chose his stocks, it's worth a look to see his portfolio). Here's the full list of Champions, Challengers & Contenders stocks on an excel spreadsheet found here (click on "excel spreadsheet" in the US Dividend Champions box - upper left corner).

     

    http://bit.ly/aA8y3H

     

    Sometimes the comments under the articles are very informative. Or just go to Chowder's profile and read his comments. You will learn a lot from him.

     

    When the next bear market comes around, I'm planning on having a portfolio that will actually benefit from that - not crash & burn. It's never too late to start buying quality stocks and they will reward you in the long run with their stellar returns.
    14 Jul 2013, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I should also have added previously, not only does the $ amount of what a person has saved matter, so does their age. Someone who has decades to go before retiring can afford to take more risks and can afford the drawdowns along the way.

     

    I think that there are many people invested who are not very educated about the markets and who don't look at sites such as SA and/or are very busy with their work lives, family and such and don't employ any rules to investing as you mentioned. They get caught in downturns and don't know is this just a blip down or a 2003/2008 event?

     

    How to get the 'blue collar' involved?
    Jobs. They need more money obviously. Has it always been this way? No, I dont think so. Unemployment and underemployment is very high.

     

    During the 90's unemployment was pretty low. I worked in the computer industry back then and there was a huge shortage of workers during a time of rapid growth in technology and due to the impending Y2K fears just about every company was transitioning their IT systems creating a massive amount of work. When Y2K came and went and the world didnt stop there was a slowdown and one could see that recession coming in advance.

     

    Now there are too many people chasing too few jobs. It seems the service sector is where many jobs are and they are generally lower paying, weaker benefit type of jobs. The real estate crash had far reaching effects that we haven't yet recovered from.

     

    I completely agree with your last paragraph. It does take hard work and for those with a reasonable degree of intelligence who are really willing to work hard can achieve some success. It can be a long hard road but hard work usually does pay off in the long run. It depends how people prioritize what they want and what they are willing to do to achieve it.

     

    Would you agree that in general work ethics have changed over the years?

     

    Also, all of the govt bene's, while sincerely needed by some people, are just too much. When people can make more money living off others there is no motivation for them to find work, but then, these aren't the people investing in markets so maybe thats not relevant in this discussion.

     

    I think there is too much govt involvement in the economy and in peoples lives in general and I don't see that changing for the better.
    Govt policy is trying to force people into stocks leaving them no alternative investments and this can't be a good thing longer term.

     

    When you consider that the population is aging and the big boomer class is entering retirement and will be drawing down their IRA's not adding to them, and with high unemployment fewer people will be saving or not saving as much, who will be there to continue buying stocks at higher and higher prices? While I won't say the markets are a ponzi scheme, they are ponzi-like. And who will be there to continue paying into social security and the entitlement programs as the population ages? And if they do run out of money to support those programs while people don't have the means to support themselves during retirement, what happens then?

     

    Health care is a big drag on the economy and peoples wallets. Insurance premiums continue to increase by leaps and bounds and the cost of treatment is out of reach for most without insurance unless it is paid for through govt benefits. I think this is a huge problem and the ACA won't be a big improvement.

     

    There will always be big money in the markets, I mean, the wealthy will continue the take up a larger share of the investment class even though they are just a small % of the population. I'm not sure what effect this will have besides an increasingly widening gap between the wealthy and the not wealthy.

     

    If we were to have another major crash soon it would be the 3rd in a decade and might scare even more people away from investing even though there isn't much of an alternative. If you aren't part of the wealthy and time is not on your side, the return OF your money is more important than the return ON your money.

     

    The older generation and unsophisticated investors need a more secure investment vehicle that will pay them a somewhat decent return on their money without the risks associated with the stock market. The govt has taken that away in an attempt to inflate stocks and create a trickle down wealth effect . So far its working but only for those with money to invest.
    What happens when it stops working?
    Do people really think this can continue indefinitely without consequences?
    14 Jul 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    inzkeeper,

     

    I agree with you that bluesky is focused on quality stocks which may see smaller drawdowns. My point was only that people in or near retirement who don't receive sufficient dividend income or don't have enough in savings to live on and need to withdraw principal cannot afford a drawdown and don't have the benefit of time to ride out any storms.
    14 Jul 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Blue,
    doesn't appear to be "dumb luck " to me , appears that u have put together a nice portfolio which is still "under construction"..

     

    Best of luck , like your approach .. agree with your assessment of INNzkeeper as being another source of info..
    14 Jul 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Thank you F&G. It's ironic that I want to be a DGI investor, because this year my star stocks are (AIG) and (SBUX) which never would have been bought. So glad I did buy them. (AIG) might be sold eventually but I believe (SBUX) is similar to (MCD) when it was about 10 years old.....so (SBUX) will be a long time hold for me. The CEO is a tremendous guy, I've heard him speak on tv a couple of times. Years ago, I had a chance to buy (SBUX) - maybe around 2009 - but thought people would stop going there because the coffee was too expensive. Ha!

     

    In a way, I'm replacing my bond portfolio with these core DGI stocks. The improvement is that the stocks keep going up in value & give a dividend. Wish I had known about DGI investing 30 years ago.
    14 Jul 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Tampat you bring up a lot of good points to ponder.

     

    What I would say to you is that we are better off today than say back in the 1930s, 1940s. It's hard to decide if we are better off today than the decades from 1950 to 1990. Lots of people are suffering, they have chosen to be gang bangers, criminals, and addicts. Not sure if that's really any different from the criminals in the past.

     

    It is very sad to me that for minorities, times are likely much worse. Without economic opportunity, it's easier to sell drugs on the streets than go without a job. I don't know how we can fix this, it's a problem that may take generations to solve. Teach them to farm? Maybe.

     

    The amazing thing is the illegal immigrants that come here, start with nothing but in a generation they can do pretty well. They are the ones working in the fields, restaurants, mowing grass....all the jobs that Americans don't want to do. I see them here in NJ, driving nice trucks and running huge lawn care/landscaping companies. And the name on the truck ain't Smith!

     

    My family worked hard for generations. My grandfather started a small business, a drugstore. I remember helping out at the store by the time I was 10 or 11, doing errands & small jobs. We still have the store in the family but times are so bad for the small drugstore owner that it's not going to last much longer, just maybe until my brother retires. He can't get the insurance (whether from Blue Cross or the state welfare) to cover the cost of filling the prescriptions. He has one lady (she's on welfare) that gets her $500 a month prescription for a cancer drug that he's paying for. That's the kind of guy he is. He hasn't been able to pay himself the first quarter of this year. He's keeping the store going, paying himself a very small salary. A lot less than he would be making at a chain drugstore. But he's 61 so just a few more years. There are about 6 people working there, most of them for over 30 years....that's the kind of place it is. Small towns in the midwest are a wonderful place to grow up & live IMO.

     

    My grandfather was truly amazing. His father died when he was a young boy. He never graduated from high school. He was "self taught" and went to pharmacy college. He worked on the hospital train in France in WWII and retired at age 82. I remember him washing his car in his 90s.

     

    Anyhow, I am a believer in hard work. There are ways to cut costs to meet your expenses. Move to a cheaper state to retire, move in with your family. My grandfather lived with us, and I would be happy to have my son stay with us forever.

     

    The problems of the poor have always been with us. Have you ever been to Mexico or India? You really haven't seen poverty unless you have. I hear it's even worse in some parts of Africa.

     

    Somehow we made it this far, and we will continue to survive in the future. I don't have all the answers. Please don't hate me when I say this, but people need to rely on each more. Join a church, volunteer - it does make me feel better when I help someone else. Together we can make a difference.

     

    As far as the markets go, whether we can continue to see them thrive? Yes I do believe the stock markets will continue. And grow. My grandmother used to tell me about bread for 5 cents, a sack of potatoes for 20 cents etc. Just like the price of bread has gone up, so has the price of stocks. It's all related to "inflation." Are we really paying more for housing, food, etc? Are we earning less money? Not really. Some people are better at saving & investing than others. That's never going to change.

     

    You might even argue that more people participate in the stock market than ever before. Plus it's world wide. US corporations - most of them - are international. I read a good article on SA the other day showing how the S&P has less correlation to the US GDP, going back 30 years. US corporations make money regardless of what the US economy is doing.

     

    How will this impact the future? You must be invested in the stock market, starting as early as possible. My son is 19. He has 2 part time jobs. I'm starting his Roth IRA this year.

     

    Another thing I've learned is to never give up, focus on the positive. Keep putting one foot ahead of the other. You have a choice, focus on the positive or the negative. You will be surprised how changing your energy (mental & physical) to positive can change your life. Tampat, I have not had an easy life. I choose to focus on the good, not the bad. Make positive thinking work for you. I am living proof that positive thinking works.

     

    One last thing, that I noticed in India. I've been there at least 5 times. The poverty did shock me. Then I noticed that these people, who had nothing, still showed happiness. Does it surprise you that people who have nothing, can be so much happier than the poor in the USA who have so much in comparison? It is all in how you decide to handle it. As Mother Teresa said, India is poor but rich in love. After coming to the US, she stated that we are rich economically, but poor in love. I saw that first hand in India. Family is everything there.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    ***my grandfather was in WWI, my dad was in WWII. Praying we never have any more wars....!
    14 Jul 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,
    I am in agreement on many of your views.
    First, on your view of so many people that have investments are not educated to the markets,don’t have a plan and don’t follow simple rules. So when those “crashes” do occur they do what most do and rely on emotions. The absolute worst thing to do at times of crisis. But we see it all the time.

     

    I certainly agree that the overall work ethic has changed and it is a big factor in where we are today. Your views on gov’t intervention are on target and play a big part in that “motivation’ & hard work issue.

     

    Cant agree more on healthcare - again too much gov't intervention.

     

    You do seem to take a longer term view of things when u mention Soc Sec. Baby boomer , entitlement issues and the like as to where that may lead to .. Cant disagree that these are real issues. However when i look at things like this , i set those discussions aside , simply because they have no affect on the markets now. Sure if we project down the road it seems ugly , but so many things can happen in the interim to make it better or even worse. If & when the ugly comes to pass , one that employs some discipline , and a risk mgmn’t plan will be fine.

     

    Its the same reason , I don’t react now to the “impending doom scenario” (not saying that is you ) with our debt situation or who will be paying into programs --years from now.

     

    I agree with your views, its how each of us perceive the “moment” and how to approach that. To oversimplify , what do i tell an investor who wants to invest in a blue chip stock with a 4% yield ? they should wait cause we need to see how the soc sec, healthcare issues,etc will, if ever be resolved ? Sounds silly but that’s what a lot of investors are doing by looking so far down the road, they have missed out on the “blue sky “ above. (not suggesting this is your approach)

     

    You mentioned “IF , we get another crash it will be the third in a decade, true, but what IF we don’t.

     

    “Do people really think this (wealth trickle down effect) can happen without consequences ? “
    If one has that baked into their minds then it does affect their investment approach. , i understand , I am cognizant of what is percieved as “possible consequences” . . Change and reaction to that change as we proceed, for sure , but I don’t subscribe to the thoughts that it “absolutley" has to happen and end badly” . It's Unchartered territory that no one can predict "good or bad" for absolute certainty.
    14 Jul 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    All valid points. People are different. I agree some of the issues I mentioned are more long term problems that shouldn't have much effect on what people do today.

     

    The bigger short term issues may be QE and its future and the disruptions it is causing as well as the continuing growing divide between the wealthy and not wealthy and an economy that is really not well.

     

    Everyone has a different perspective and risk tolerance based on their own experiences as well as, to some extent, genetics. Perhaps my own experiences in life have influenced me to be more cautious.

     

    You are right that no one knows the outcome or events of the future.
    The best we can do is what we are each comfortable with that allows us to sleep well. To that extent, the wealthier someone is, the easier that is to do.

     

    I am actually very content with my life and glad I have the time for activities such as this. As you may have noticed through various posts, there is an anarchistic side to me that has been there from an early age which I suppose also plays an influence.

     

    I understand where you are coming from and you have provided some valuable information here on SA. It seems we agree on many things, but differ somewhat on how to play it.

     

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the impression that you basically say, I'll deal with that if it happens when the time comes. If so, then you do a good job of living in the here and now which I think is a key to peace of mind. That is quite an accomplishment which many people haven't been able to achieve.

     

    I think its easy to form an impression of people based on their posts here, but one should be careful in that regard as its such an incomplete picture. Someone might have an emotional response to a topic but that doesn't really give much insight into what they are really like, only what they are like at that moment.

     

    Glad we had the conversation but I may have to challenge you in the future if your reporting paints a brighter picture than what I view as realistic, (kidding).
    14 Jul 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @INZ

     

    Thanks for taking my offer up to comment here. I believe I am repeating BSF here but your method and reasoning is vital to quite a few who lurk and post here.

     

    I hope you continue to give us some hints and thoughts !

     

    Thanks again and please post your links to articles you have written. As well as join our conversation and always add you points of view. I did read one of your articles and was impressed , that is why I was hoping you would take a peek at what we do here !
    14 Jul 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    BlueSky,

     

    I appreciate all the information you shared.
    That was a very interesting read and I agree with most of what you wrote.

     

    While this post has little to do with investing or the markets your story did motivate me to respond.

     

    Are we better off today? I think it depends on what that means but overall, yes, we are, simply from the technical advancements made over the decades.

     

    I haven't been to India but have been around. I have lived all over the US and I have been to a poor, rural area in eastern Europe and stayed with a family there for a while in the early 1990's. It was interesting in that people from miles around and the nearby villages came to visit because they wanted to 'see the American'.
    I could only talk to them through my traveling companion translating as no one spoke any English, thats how rural it was. They didnt have hardly any money, but they were pretty happy people though quite cynical towards govt in general. They all help each other and are pretty close nit. It was kinda like going back in time here in the US.

     

    They had a huge feast for my arrival, they put on their Sunday church clothes and treated me like a foreign dignitary simply because I was from America and none of them had ever met anyone from the US.

     

    One funny story, there was one TV station that played old American TV reruns (the people I stayed with actually had a small TV) and it went off the air later at night, nothing to watch on any channel. They played shows like Dallas and Dynasty (language dubbed) that showed people of wealth living in opulence and they thought thats how most all Americans really lived. Ha Ha.

     

    In college I worked with inner city, public housing teens and younger. I saw first hand their homes and how they lived and met some of the parents. There are many brutal lifestyles going on in those areas and I had to have a 'local' young person go around with me for my own safety as I was a white guy from 'outside'.

     

    I learned at a very early age the value of hard work and had my first job at 10 years old. I worked my way through the different economic classes to a white collar profession and have had a pretty good lifestyle. The thing is, I hated working in corp America and finally gave it all up to own my own small business and it is incredibly satisfying. I am back in a rural area similar to my childhood and couldn't ask for much more.

     

    TImes really are tough for a lot of people and it wasn't always that way for them. There is a quiet, yet pretty strong anti-govt current out there which I suspect is growing throughout the population. I view this as a good thing.

     

    While you are right we do have a choice to focus on the good instead of the bad, we must have some focus on the bad in order to improve things for those that need it and to address problems and come up with solutions. While I am short term somewhat negative as I think we are on a economic tightrope, I know the technology advances in all areas going into the future will be a sight to behold if we don't blow up the world.

     

    Only one thing I would disagree with you about, you asked are we really paying more for goods and earning less on a relative basis compared to the past. Yes, we certainly are paying more and earning less as the value of the dollar has declined significantly. Someone who earned $10k in 1950, not a bad income then, would need to make about $97k today to come out the same, someone in the mid 1970's making $20k now needs about $86k.

     

    Thanks for sharing some of your personal story. The better people understand one another, the better.
    14 Jul 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4563) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    You are correct , I try my best to be in the "here & now", Trust me I wasn't always that way. I recently (early 2012) took courses and sessions on that very topic. Principle of --control what u can , be prepared & react to what u can't. In the interim, don't ruminate over the stuff that may never come to pass.

     

    Glad we had this conservation also, You are so right when it comes to forming impressions on people because of their comments. I have learned , sometimes the hard way, that I didn't have their complete picture and therefore my comments have been inappropriate for them. Goes back to my "no cookie cutter" approach to investing, but I need to stop, think & invoke that, when responding to certain comments.

     

    I now have a better picture of where u stand on many things, and like u said we do agree on most. I did paint u as somewhat of an anarchist, by previous commentary, and it may surprise u to learn that I have no use for our leadership and appointed officials. -lol

     

    I sometime wonder where we all would be (economically & financially) if there was at least a small percentage that were competent.

     

    Now I try & put that in perspective also, can't totally ignore , but I can't control, so I go with what is working and can control. You know if I really let my feelings take over I wouldn't invest a dime in anything with the incompetence that surrounds us. An emotional overstatement for sure, and I know history shows us that doesn't work, so it has to be put on the shelf. There are some good things happening around us , there just not in the gov't. :)

     

    You can challenge my picture anytime, all criticism is not taken personally, & I hope that any statements I make here are not taken personally by anyone either. I like to think that all need at least to hear the "other side " of things..

     

    I'm Sure we will have further discussions .. :)
    14 Jul 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/16CwIb1

     

    MOVING ALONG TO MONDAY MORNING !!

     

    Trivia question already posted ??? Who wins this week ?

     

    NEXT CHAPTER .....
    14 Jul 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe that we are likely to get any significant tapering, or whatever it is. There is a chance that the FED can cut money printing a bit just to maintain some sort of confidence but it is also possible that they may increase QE.
    The bottom line is that the FED will keep on printing money to infinity. Nobody else can pay the huge debts out there so it will be the FED doing it by printing another 10-15 trillion over the next 10 years, if not faster.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:39 AM Reply Like
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