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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
My blog:
Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 25............ 283 comments
    Jul 14, 2013 3:53 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (283)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Anyone wanna open?

     

    Ok, I will... Does the markets have any reaction this week to Bernanke?

     

    Of course who is the best athlete to wear #25 ??
    14 Jul 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Ok IT, yes, there will certainly be a reaction. I'm hoping someone can tell me what the reaction will be so I can do some short term trading to profit from the movement. Actually, I will just watch from the sidelines as I dont like to try and trade around BB comments.

     

    Will the Bernanke's comments have a long term effect?
    If a new policy is announced maybe so, but probably it will be more of the same ole, same ole. My guess is he adds some new spiked punch to the bowl to keep the party going. I think Mr Prez may threaten a drone strike if he says anything to end the party on his watch.
    14 Jul 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    # 25 , one that comes to mind , with a bunch of controversy is Barry Bonds,

     

    As far as Bernanke, agree with Tampat , may see plenty of action , good week to listen & watch.....
    14 Jul 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    #25 (Bonds) I agree with you. Although he MIGHT have been a great one, those steroids disqualify him in my eyes.

     

    Dig deeper...

     

    Now I also want to clear the air. The kid who beat me was 17 and not 7, I was trying to make a point.

     

    Next point...A while back both SOUTH and TACK went toe to toe in a very lengthy investment discussion. BOTH brought facts to the table and it essentially was up to the individual investor to decide what road he/she would want to travel.

     

    I really enjoyed that and hope to see more of it. Both were professional in their presentation and it was on a level most likely above half who follow this link,

     

    Now ALL please keep in mind sometimes we also have to post more lower level and more explanations as well to educate someone (LIKE ME) new to this style of investing. For some Mutual Funds were the way to go. They are now learning a new craft on the fly.

     

    That is why I wanted a reading chapter as well.
    14 Jul 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    Please please BB announce starting of tapering with a definite date... so we can stop the headgames & get back to investing in the market the usual way.

     

    @Tampat

     

    However the majority reacts - it won't be how I react & I'll be puzzled until someone explains it to me.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Restaurants, bars act to avoid cost of Obamacare. The WSJ has found anecdotal evidence that restaurants and bars have been converting much of their staff to part-time from full time so that they don't have to provide health insurance as mandated by the Affordable Care Act. Companies in the sector have been adding 50,000 jobs a month since April, although the average work week for staff has risen slightly to 25.6 hours this year from 25.5 hours in 2012."

     

    Any effect on the workforce??
    15 Jul 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Asbytec
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    "If a new policy is announced maybe so, but probably it will be more of the same ole, same ole."

     

    Yes, I think the policy is on track, though there is some disagreement about when to start. However, I think Bernanke will tone his message as dovish of hawkish depending on the state of the markets. They appear sufficiently dovish with the dollar's appreciation moderated and equities soaring. He'll stay the course in his testimony, he knows who's listening.

     

    Any change in policy after forward guidance on the taper would be disruptive. Folks who are pricing in a taper would be caught with their proverbial pants down in a big way on overly dovish comments. So, I don't expect much reaction afterward, but maybe a pause leading up to his comments, just in case.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • convoluted
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    COST began same practice several months ago. I sometimes use a couple of their 'employees' for misc projects, so I get the scoop. Pathetic how COST is often lauded, but hard to find a traditional, full-time employee. Yes, I know they have to respond to their environment.
    Is this a short-term response or just another evidentiary exhibit to prove the new normal is becoming simply the norm. What sociological repercussions a decade from now? Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care?
    16 Jul 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    convoluted,
    Seems to be one of unintended consequences of ACA. Everyone can have health care, but, not everyone can have a full time job. It will be interesting to see the other unintended consequences once it begins rolling out in OCT???Especially, since they have rolled back the employer mandate, but, still have the penalties for individuals starting in Jan 2014.

     

    BTW, thanks, I now have that song running through my head....:o) I almost posted: I don't know, I don't know, I don't know.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • sdavid0419
    , contributor
    Comments (802) | Send Message
     
    Chain restaurants in California at the height of the illegal immigrant invasion were firing all salaried employees and replacing them with illegal scabs and paying them under the table. I know this as my friend that was a manager for a major chain restaurant was ordered to fire all salaried employees and hire the scabs. After he completed this horrible act they, of course, fired him and hired an illegal scab to replace him. This is four year old news. Can't credit Obama Care there.
    28 Jul 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Before the election, these Restaurants were forced to fire the illegals because of the government crack down, forcing Restaurants to hire legals and thus pumping up the unemployment numbers for Obama's election.
    28 Jul 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Sdavid & Doug

     

    Interesting points. I remember reading about the use of illegals in restaurant work, vs. salaried a few years back.
    28 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    yeah, my nephews girlfriend works at a chain called Cheesecake Factory and they had to fire everyone the same day.
    28 Jul 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    From the articles, I remember restaurants had to use illegals to make ends meet. It was a kind of understood phenomenon throughout the restaurant industry. It all came up at the time when illegal immigration reform was first being discussed.

     

    I'd assume the industry's been through iterations - such as hiring regulars for politics, then firing them...

     

    It makes it so hard to understand the unemployment numbers accurately... (not to mention the hardship on everyone involved.)
    28 Jul 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    No guess on #25 ? Wow...
    14 Jul 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Nope, the only numbers I know are 7, 8, 9, and 24.
    I just dont pay much attention to that type of thing, maybe you can expand the questions to something other than a number some day.

     

    As for Barry, I dont care about the steroids. Actually, I dont care if all athletes use them. Its their body to do with as they please. It would be kinda cool to see some steroid monster hit 100 homers in a season or a running back that takes 4 guys to bring him down or a pitcher win 30 games. Oh wait, Denny did that. Can you imagine a pitcher with a 130 MPH fastball!!
    And I guess if they all did it it would be that much more difficult to set records as the playing field would still be even. So let them put into their bodies whatever they want, it belongs to them.
    Next thing ya know someone will try to tell us how much soda we can drink.
    14 Jul 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    We did have a running back that could carry 4 players. Jim Brown !!
    14 Jul 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'll continue my contrarian number theme.

     

    So best 25 (way to get to 25)? 5x5 of course. A nice square-rootable number. Definitely a winner.

     

    (Hey, if you can't play in the sandbox, invent your own game. Someone might even come & join you.)
    15 Jul 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Asbytec
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    "Actually, I dont care if all athletes use them."

     

    Where's the spirit of human competition? It's not like you're playing against some naturally genetic iron man with innate ability to play the game, but more like playing a doped up monster or a robot. Yes, it's their body and they can dope all day and shave their legs if they want. Just leave it out of the sport where men outplay or out think the competition.

     

    I am gonna build a batting robot that can knock them out of the park every time, even a ball far outside the plate. Let's see Bonds dope himself up against that. What I hope to see is a real iron man come along and amaze us with his natural abilities and break records. Now, that's an achievement worth admiring.

     

    Players on dope are a lot like equities on drugs. Is that who we are?
    16 Jul 2013, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ASBYTEC

     

    Nice to see you back.

     

    What is your opinion of QE'S? Are they influencing the stock market or have no effect?
    16 Jul 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    "Players on dope are a lot like equities on drugs. Is that who we are?"

     

    Yep, QE is the drug for the equities.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    "Next thing ya know someone will try to tell us how much soda we can drink."

     

    isn't bloomberg doing that in NY ? with the sugar drinks ?

     

    I like the steroid monster stuff ....

     

    IT,
    after Bonds i am drawing a complete blank on #25
    14 Jul 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Yup, thats what I was alluding too ;)
    14 Jul 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    From Soda to Weiners in New York .Sad state of affairs .

     

    My pick for #25 Fred Biletnikof
    17 Jul 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I know you have an interest in BDC's.
    Here is an article you might look at.

     

    "A-BDC-Investment Philosophy"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Jul 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Gold is getting real close to $1300 per ounce tonight. Still think it's a bounce?

     

    Tomorrow should be interesting !!
    14 Jul 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Today & rest of week with bernanke may tell the next short term move..

     

    Eric's article nailed it , stall here & its a bad omen, overtake 1300-1320 and the price stabilizes.

     

    Still appears to be a "bounce" to me . instincts tell me we'll know after Bernanke on thu. just a "feeling"
    15 Jul 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Looks like markets are waiting for BB to speak. Pretty sad that what he says has so much importance..
    15 Jul 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @PAWS

     

    And one for you involving physical metals..

     

    http://bit.ly/12BKVmd
    14 Jul 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    Jacques Lemaire.
    14 Jul 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Over Fred Biletnikoff? Did not know Jac wore 25 ?? Humm

     

    Polls close at midnight ! Then investment time..
    14 Jul 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Forgot about Fred , one of my all time fav's along with his QB -Kenny "snake" Stabler
    14 Jul 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I'm a huge, life-long hockey fan, so I decided to offer a hockey great, as a candidate.
    14 Jul 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Remember when the goalies played without ANY masks? I tell the young kids this and they do not believe me..
    14 Jul 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    I recall when Les Binkley took a slapshot in the forehead, and they just halted play while they sewed him up, and the players just milled around in the crease, scraping about two pints of blood off the ice, so the attendants could scoop it up with snow shovels.

     

    Then, play resumed, as if nothing happened.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    I like hockey - though I don't know the players. But goalie without a mask with that puck?
    15 Jul 2013, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    That's why Jacques Plante invented it.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    OK, I have to ask.. which is your team Tack?
    You see, I am also a long-time hockey fan. Curious to hear the team you support. Maybe we can argue about that too!!!
    15 Jul 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    Ugh. Glad I wasn't there for that one.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    I was an original season-ticket holder to the Capitals, when they got formed (man, were they dreadful in those days), but having spent twenty years watching and attending Sharks games, I'd have to say they are my "home team." Notwithstanding, I love watching all hockey.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok guys let's start playing nice please..

     

    Let's leave it in the last chapter ok ?
    15 Jul 2013, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PM ALERT !!!!

     

    A lurker wants to know if you had to pick ONE stock to invest in to start a portfolio which one would it be?

     

    Keep in mind they do not have a lot of money, do not want a Mutual Fund, but would be open to an ETF..

     

    I know we can list many reasons why you don't want one stock. But she wants to see ONE stock in particular and why???
    14 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    One stock, Geez - i'll go with (CVX) , good div. div growth, cheap valuation, Oil isnt going away anytime soon, & they are getting into the lucrative LNG (Liquified Nat Gas) biz.

     

    One of many fav's
    14 Jul 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5151) | Send Message
     
    I will throw Disney (DIS) out there for one stock to start with.
    Reasons: there is so much under the Disney umbrella- from movies and tv (ESPN) to theme parks and cruise lines-

     

    I am long Disney and have more stocks I like too! (COP), (CSX), (HTA) to name a few.

     

    #25- I refuse to answer until I get my prize or winning #23 :-)

     

    Have a great evening.
    14 Jul 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    Your tungsten, I mean your gold is in process:)
    14 Jul 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    The pat answer is a cheap ETF such as Vang Total World Stock (VT).

     

    Also there are a number of mutual funds & some ETFs that are year to retire related. So you pick your time frame like 2020 & the fund picks the stocks, bonds & asset allocation. I can't stand anything that contrived & avoid them. If I were including bonds, I'd go with the Wellington at Vanguard for that purpose since it has a good solid history of success inspite of being a managed fund.

     

    VT gives good diversity on equities (stocks), but I find that index's return is less than small/mid cap or even straight US large cap ETF over the years. Just takes in too many markets I suppose.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Deer

     

    What prize would you like?? Think big - because it's virtual so the sky's the limit!
    15 Jul 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    You're getting him gold? Gold Bullion site gives out a bit of free silver when you sign up. Then I read the fine print. It's $30 to get any money from sales out of your account & moved to your bank! Fine if you do high $ transactions.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Nah, I nominated Doug to hand out the prizes !!
    15 Jul 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    It depends on the budget. If the person is looking for a single digit suggestion i am kind of liking the recently suggested NUGT. At the $10 range (soon to be above $10)...what else? PSLV of course.

     

    Getting into the $20-50 range and getting away from metals...
    PFE (Pfizer) or CSCO (Cisco)

     

    I can't go much higher priced than that although I think COSTCO (COST) still has room to run if you can afford such a stock

     

    Good Luck!
    15 Jul 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Deer,
    Love (DIS) , great pick,, owned it at 35 sold at 58 , wrote calls on it and lost it during rally -- waiting for the pullback that never comes -- lol
    15 Jul 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Thats a surprise that you went with a commodity stock.
    It tracks fairly close to SPY with a little better divi, but still surprises me you picked that one. I thought for sure you would pick (GLD)!!
    15 Jul 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat

     

    (GLD) , hmm , not yet --- :)
    16 Jul 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    I figured, jk.
    When I first saw the question about 1 stock only first one that popped in my head was (GIS), but I didnt research it for valuation.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5151) | Send Message
     
    Gold, tungsten, silver, coins, bubble gum, I will take anything for winning #23.

     

    I am a big fan of Disney. We (my family) have had nothing but wonderful experiences while at Disney World and staying in their resorts. We did not make the yearly trek to Florida this year, but will head back next summer. First-rate in everything they do, from what I can see. Looking for a pull-back has been difficult. I am trying to add shares.

     

    #25....I will wait for #26...
    16 Jul 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I CHANGED IT UP. total runs for the All Star game tonight !

     

    #27 will be next !
    16 Jul 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2445) | Send Message
     
    I gave my granddaughter $500 worth of DIS to her education trust account 10 years ago when it was around $20. With dividend reinvestments over the years the DIS is worth over $2000.

     

    Pretty good return, no?

     

    Wish I had been that smart with my own money. LOL.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ WindW

     

    That's cool !! Great example to for her to incorporate --- good teaching of tools to her.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • nocnurzfred
    , contributor
    Comments (484) | Send Message
     
    IT; I need some more help here. I put 3 10oz silver bars together [with purchase receipt] together with a rubber band about 3 months ago. Today I pulled them out to merely admire them, and they are scarred with a black oxidation type thing, through the heavy plastic sleeve. I can move them enough to know that this anomaly is not just on the plastic sheath. Like, these things are sealed, and an exrernal rubber band is going to mark them with a black scar? Teach us some more, please.
    14 Jul 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    noc, a simple paste of baking soda and water will shine silver like you can't believe. Try it on something less valuable first to see the results. I've done this with messed up coins and there have been no long term adverse effects.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOC

     

    Sorry, I have no idea what can cause that. Maybe contact Gainesville in the morning and they could help you ?
    14 Jul 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ NOC

     

    Or PM Hebba or Doug & ask them?

     

    Is it just where the band sits? Silver in 3 months tarnishes in jewelry form. I can tell you a great tarnish remover, but that doesn't help. Bet the plastic is letting in air. There are some tarnish preventing strips sold at places like The Container Store, that I've been told really do work. Maybe one should be in the sealed bag.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • nocnurzfred
    , contributor
    Comments (484) | Send Message
     
    Yes, this black stripes are only where the rubber band pressed against the thick plastic sealed sleeve.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Not my expertise on oxidation. Haven't heard of it before. What are the hallmarks of the bars and are they accredited?
    16 Jul 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "@ IT

     

    I'll add to that question --

     

    Lately I'm hearing a lot about Dividend investing as the best-est.

     

    It seems like a new fad - I hadn't heard it before over the years. So my question, is there some recent research that's shown it's the best?

     

    For years I've heard small/mid caps out run large caps. Solid dividend plays tend to be in large caps, some mid. I've heard diversity among classes & sectors is more key than than anything else.

     

    So my question - does the Dividend focused investing beat all this other long term ways to invest? And why / how do you know?

     

    Also swing traders work harder, but can they do as well over time?

     

    I'd love if everyone who's been focused on dividend planning, gives their views. It's been puzzling me as I've been reading along."

     

    I reposted a GREAT question by CURLS here so that the morning crew might take a shot at answering this !!

     

    Hope you don't mind CURLS>>>
    15 Jul 2013, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    It all depends on what your perspective is and what your time horizon is. If what you are concentrating on it stock price, then small, mid cap and penny stocks can give you the most bang for your buck, you just have to pick the correct one. If you are focussed on income there are really only three choices dividend paying stocks, bonds or starting your own business.

     

    The only reason you are hearing so much about dividend investing now is because the government has given savers two choices savings accounts, CDs, money market, etc. that pay little to no interest or move to riskier investments to get enough yield to live on. Dividend investing has been around for decades, it just wasn't advertised a lot because brokers don't make money off it, because the people who practice it don't do a lot of transactions a year.

     

    Anyway, the reason a lot of people have jumped on the dividend investing bandwagon of late is because of income. What they discovered during 2008-2009 was that even though the price of the stocks went down in the recession the good dividend paying companies continued to pay dividends and even increased the income they produced during the recession. Just look at the dividend history of the top 100 dividend companies and you see what I mean. A lot of people who could not make enough off their savings to live off of have moved into these types of companies to increase their income every year. Over time since 2009 they have learned something else. These same 100 companies were recovering faster than the rest of the market.

     

    With the current rise in interest rates people are seeing that just like housing prices, bond prices will not continue to rise forever either. Which in the long run will be a good thing once long term rates get back to 4-5%. Then there will be another shift as people want a guaranteed 5% for 30 years on US bonds. People that bought 30 year bonds in the 80s at 10% are just now beginning to see their bond mature and are looking for the next long term investment to put their retirement money into.

     

    So, the answer to your question is what is your perspective. What are you trying to accomplish. Once you know that you'll know what to invest in...:o) Unfortunately, not everyone has the same answer which is why when I posted before I tried to lay out what my perspective and goals are so that people trying to achieve the same thing would know where I am coming from and people who are not trying to achieve what I am can move on to something else. For those that missed it or don't want to have to go through all the chapters again, I am investing for income. So everything I do is about increasing the annual amount of income that my investments produce until I get my investments to produce enough income to replace me. That is my perspective and goal...:o)
    15 Jul 2013, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    As to your question "How do I know?"
    Because I have invested in dividend companies since the 1970s. I started with Phillip Morris (MO) and Dominion Resources (D). I was 20 years old and had no immediate need for the income so I just let them both reinvest the dividends. At my first purchase I bought 100 shares of MO at $1,42 and 1000 shares of D at $3.27. McDonalds (MCD) was a penny stock that didn't pay dividends.

     

    Anyway, I held those stocks through wars, stagflations, inflations, market crashes and all the other stuff that happened in the world from 1977 to 2000. With the splits and reinvested dividends both would be worth millions today and would generate over $100K in income a year. Unfortunately for me a divorce and subsequent bankruptcy pretty much wiped out all of that in 2000 and I have had the pleasure of starting all over.

     

    So I know dividend investing works because of 36 years of experience in using it. How did I get "turned on" to dividend investing? Because of all the history I had read about how personal fortunes have been made. Why is Bill Gates the richest man in the world? Because he owns so many shares of Microsoft. Why is the Walton family so rich? Because they own so many shares of Walmart. The list could go on, but, I think you get it. Bill Gates and the Walton family don't trade their stocks with what is currently happening in the world. They hold them. In Gates case over 30 years in the Walton's over 40 years. The same is true for the Vanderbilts, Rockefellers, Morgans and on and on. They started trusts with their stocks that pay an income to the "family" some for over 100 years.

     

    Next, I learned how to find these stocks from Peter Lynch in the 1980s. He said look around you and see what YOU use. When I did that it lead me to stocks like (PG), (XOM), (CL), (MO), (KMB), (JNJ), (CLX), (WMT), (ADM), (AFL), (MCD), (D), (PPL), (GD), (LMT), (PG), etc.

     

    I have built a watch list for those stocks and keep a list of them with an entry price. So that when they get to my entry price I buy them. When they are above entry I just watch them. Because I am only interested in income generation I only get focused on the stock price when it is close to my buy price. Otherwise I don't care what the price is. I care how much the company is sending me in income. If the company stops their dividend or lowers it without good reason I sell the stock, no matter what the price is. Otherwise I just hold onto it. As you can see from my short list above it is relatively easy to build a portfolio of stocks that is diversified to different sectors, if that is important to you.

     

    So far in 2013 I have only made 4 trades. 100 shares of (GE) that was exercised in a cover call. And slowly buying positions into (XRX), (ADM) and (FCX). I currently have 100 shares of XRX and ADM and 28 shares of FCX. I will add more FCX till I have 100 as the price goes back to my buy price. I began doing covered calls on the stocks I owned because it helped me generate monthly income vice just quarterly from dividends. Plus, it made it possible to always sell my holdings at a profit. In 36 years that is the only thing that has changed. When things are going up I am not usually interested in the markets. When something happens to make stocks go down then I start paying attention. That is why I started the position in FCX, because the miners have been beaten up so bad this year. What I am looking for is buying a stock for 40 cents for every dollar in value. And, as in the case of FCX that was possible this year.
    15 Jul 2013, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ IT - sure

     

    I'm asking about growth portfolio with years before retiring. Let's say 15.

     

    I'm not looking for a retirement steady income, but to max the money so there's more available when that time comes.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    Yep, the low interest rates (ZIRP) make sense as why Dividend investing is hot right now. It's an alternative for retiring people.

     

    Compound interest is of course a powerful thing for the long term. Still, if you grow anywhich way (through dividend OR through stock price) & you keep it in, the growth happens.

     

    What I notice in your stocks is some of your success is from buying for growth. (MCD) years ago. (FCX) now. Walton & Gates are rich not because of dividend investing but growth in their business.

     

    So to answer the question -- I'm looking for maximum increase in total wealth. So, my question is does Dividend investing style which will be largely large cap, do better than basic good diversity & use of small/mip cap growth?

     

    Thanks Notrub for the examples of how it's worked for you!
    15 Jul 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    Then what you are looking for is another McDonalds that is currently a penny stock. I have no advise on that one. I didn't buy (MCD) at 1.23 a share in 1977. But, a one time investment of $1230 in 1977 would make you a multi millionaire now.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Notrub

     

    I'm not looking for the next get rich speculation. I'm asking on solid long term investing, what styles work well. I've been hearing so much about Dividend investing... but it's not the traditionally sold long term style.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FOLKS

     

    I think I spotted WMARKW on a long line buying gold in Hong Kong. Did you guys hear that TV station which was punked with the pilots names of the crashed flight?

     

    Captain Sum Ting Wong
    Wi Tu Lo
    Ho Lee Fuk
    Bang Ding Ow .

     

    Some intern confirmed these names... You gotta chuckle though
    15 Jul 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT & curls:

     

    There are all kinds of "dividend investing," so there's no generic answer. But, as someone who has specialized in high-yield value investing, I have found that high yields and dividends often pay off in two related ways:

     

    1) The conventional wisdom that many have been taught is that high yield equates to high risk. My own experience, after many years, has been somewhat the opposite; often, high yield is an indicator that the share price is too low. Of course, one needs to examine other metrics and history for any prospective investment, not just yield, but I use that as a starting point.

     

    2) Yield, particularly significant yields, can make up for lots of sins and can aggregate over time to impressive returns, even when prices are moribund. And, yield provides downside price protection that is unafforded by non-yielding issues.

     

    Consider what the compounded returns are over ten years for a portfolio with the following yields, EVEN if the share price doesn't rise one, single dollar:

     

    3% - 34%
    4% - 48%
    5% - 63%
    6% - 79%
    7% - 97%
    8% - 116%
    9% - 137%

     

    Furthermore, yield provides downside price protection. If one buys a stock with a 9% yield, and the share price drops 20%, the buyer will recover that capital depreciation in less than two years, if the dividends are reinvested. This makes the decision to hold a temporarily weak stock or stock in a weak market that much easier.

     

    When one buys a go-go growth stock with no dividends, and it drops 20%, then one has the dilemma of deciding whether to sit on that dead money endlessly and hope it recovers its value or to take the loss and redeploy to another issue that might perform better. In either case, unless yield is involved, the investment is reduced to speculation about price moves, alone. There's only one way to gain, and it's not predictable, like dividend streams.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Great information about a stock that is beaten down yet has a decent dividend.

     

    Any stocks that you feel have been beaten down to a point they should be bought now with a steady dividend stream?
    16 Jul 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Well, for those with a stout heart, I recommend considering SAN. This global bank has a strong balance sheet and does 75% of its business outside Europe, but has been dragged down by its association with Spain. Throughout the recent European struggles the bank has continued to pay prodigious dividends, and I believe at its currently depressed price will see a lot of upside down the road.

     

    As a class, I believe BDC's are undervalued and somewhat misunderstood. Their prices have suffered as rates have risen, but they are not adversely affected by rises in short-term rates, probably even benefited, as they lend on a floating-rate basis. I suggest reading some articles by BDC Buzz, which provide excellent analysis.

     

    One fund I especially like at current prices is the Chile Fund (CH), which has suffered from declining copper-producer prices, among other things. Again, a very nice yield coupled with upside price potential.
    16 Jul 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack,

     

    Yes, you've posted a lot of this before & it's very great information.

     

    I asked above about dividend focused investing. I'd have to find it. @IT reposted it as well. Can you check that out -- I had more focused questions. If /when I find it again, I'll repost it too.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has transferred up to 3B yuan ($489) to over 700 travel agencies and consultancies in China over the past six years as part of a scheme to bribe officials and doctors to illegally increase the sales prices of the company's drugs, the country's Ministry of Public Security said today. The Ministry's Gao Feng didn't say how much of the money was spent on the bribes, but did say that four GSK officials have been detained."

     

    Yup, this will help the stock price for sure !!
    15 Jul 2013, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There's more !!

     

    "Chinese authorities are probing at least four multinational drugmakers, Clifford Chance anti-corruption specialist Wendy Wysong has told Bloomberg, although she declined to identify the companies concerned. In its 2012 annual report, AstraZeneca (AZN) said it is investigating possible inappropriate conduct in China and other countries, although it had no update to provide this week. Wysong's comments come as China investigates GlaxoSmithKline for alleged bribery"

     

    AND THE BEAT GOES ON !!
    16 Jul 2013, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    China's growth rate continues to slow:

     

    http://bloom.bg/14TkJYz
    15 Jul 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Those were the QY/Y numbers which are archaic. Using our North American Q/Q reporting methodology, Real GDP growth rose from 6.4% to a 7.0% pace.

     

    china gdp outlook chart: http://bit.ly/MLSnEi
    16 Jul 2013, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » June Retail Sales: +0.4% vs. +0.8% expected, +0.6% prior. Ex-auto flat% vs. +0.5% expected, +0.3% prior.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    So numbers are poor. So is bad news good news again, & stock fly up because the economy is poor so tapering can't start?
    15 Jul 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IMO Tapering isn't starting for a loooong time !!! Economy is too weak to start taking it off life support !

     

    Interest rates are trickling down, possible deflation might happen, and BB won't be happy with that. So onward with the FEDS program.

     

    Lets see what BB says later this week. But people didn't shop as expected. Just noise really though
    15 Jul 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    probably all of the above.. "traders" are keying in on the 1687 level, on the S & P , but most probably are sitting on sidelines to see if Bernanke will move markets later in week.

     

    some interesting data,

     

    Investors intelligence poll from last week showed number of "bears" increased by 10% while the markets made new highs. Good sign if u are bullish.

     

    The Nat'l Assoc of Ind. Investment Mgrs. poll asking percentage of equity investment exposure last week , dropped dramatically to the lowest level since last Nov ! (point where this market took off)

     

    These two contrarian indicators may indicate there is room to run in the short term.

     

    One negative that has been out there is that "margin debt" is very high. is it an anomaly ? I have no idea or explanation, shows why trying to pick the short term trend is very difficult.

     

    Earnings estimates have come way down , the expectations are very low,, any surprises may add fuel here..

     

    Lets see what happens..
    15 Jul 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    Here's another question - now that it's known that lots of bears, makes for bull. And vice versa. Does that effect whether the power of that theory?

     

    I.E. Do bears get bullish knowing there's a lot of bears...and confound the whole thing?

     

    Does seem to be a lot of mixed messages. I'd tend to guess from that, it means were in the middle or nearish to a top.... but not at a top. As in messages will be clearer at the top or bottom, but in the middle, you'll get a mixed bag. Just guessing off the top of my head though.
    16 Jul 2013, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    Good guesses, yes its always a mixed bag and does change from week to week, so like most "tools" keep it in perspective .
    16 Jul 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (567) | Send Message
     
    Hello again! To anyone who might have some experience with major swing trading, I'm giving some serious thought to using the strategy laid out in this article for my 401k -

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My reasoning behind being interested in this is that my fund selection sucks - the only thing I'm remotely interested in is VTSMX because of the low fees. Individual stock or bond or etf selection in this account is a no-go. I figure using this strategy with a money market account might give some protection during the worst type of corrections.

     

    Any critiques are welcome, thanks!
    15 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    I did a quick look but only looked at 2002-03 and 2007-08 it appears it gets you out after about a 15% decline so you could just use a 15% stop from the highs.

     

    Some people use the 200 day MA as a guide and get out when it goes below and back in when it gets above.

     

    Others just buy and hold and ride it out or just lighten up by selling some %.

     

    Interesting topic, might be interesting to hear what others (who don't hold through a crash) use as a guide to get out and back in.
    15 Jul 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    I don't have a rule set in concrete, but the flags go up when i see a general decline getting to around the 12% level. I always monitor each position as things unfold.. Looking to see if the longer term trend lines are still intact . If one goes back to 2008 , it was very evident that the trend line was broken, then the market actually rallied right back to that line & from there it was history. That was a 4 - 5 Month time period !

     

    A point i try to make to those that believe you wont have time to put your portfolio in order,take some defensive action,etc. It is at that precise time when u really have to filter out the noise and leave emotion at the door.
    15 Jul 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Do you have a specific stop/sell point for each stock or use the market % decline as a guide.

     

    And do you go all out or just sell a certain % of certain stocks?

     

    Do you advise your clients to do the same as you or do you have a separate strategy for yourself?

     

    I have found deciding when to sell can be more difficult than buying.
    15 Jul 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat ,

     

    it really depends on the stock, i rarely sell the "core" div holdings. So, I don't go all out . Other intermediate term holdings are trimmed or completely sold. So it could be 10-15 or 20 % on the individual company that triggers a move. So I don't push the sell button on all if the market goes into a 15% decline.

     

    As far as clients , depends on their circumstances , perspectives, risk tolerance..,etc. All are long term investors, but I like to monitor if they have needs for any shorter term period - 2 - 4 yrs or so. Helps to make decisions along the way. Most like to follow my moves on the intermediate term stuff, where i may be shedding more risk. One goal is to ensure all have cash avail. to put to work if/when the time comes. Managing here is as important as managing in a downturn.

     

    All goes back to each individual.. Keeping emotion out of things is the tough part.

     

    Absolutely right about the "sell" part of the equation. Sometimes its a "feel" ,
    If u have a nice profit , take it ... cut losses when that trend line looks broken One thing i do is never look back , good or bad,, don't let it affect your next decision.. We all tend to beat ourselves up over woulda , shoulda , coulda..

     

    15 Jul 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (567) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat,

     

    Thanks. I was thinking of using a 300 day average - looking back several years it looks like I would have gone to cash for 2008 to late '09, a couple of blips in '10 and during late 2011.

     

    I use barchart.com and one interesting thing is that an exponential average would have kicked me out (using the strategy) last November and a simple average would have come close but kept me in.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    User, All

     

    I posted a LT chart of the S & P with some dialog to illustrate the use of charting.. trend lines, resistance , support , etc.

     

    Take a look :
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Jul 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    That's so funny. I was just reading another comment of yours & thinking of asking about this info :).
    15 Jul 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    US GDP:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/18j...
    15 Jul 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Read the article, nothing really surprising in the data, but as is often the case the comments below were more interesting. Its a very small data point, but it can be interesting to see what comments people are making in response to news.
    Lotta folks not too happy.
    15 Jul 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    If we do slip into a contraction, how does that change your philosophy on investing??
    15 Jul 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    None at all. I have been through several recessions already and bought and sold like I usually do.Though, with the 2008-2009 one I had to wait about 5 months for the stocks to come back up again, the 2000 bubble bust took about 9 months. If it ends up being a full blown depression who knows??? Never been through that, yet???

     

    The only thing that really changes is you get some once in a life time buying opportunities. If you have the funds to take advantage of them. In 2009 I was predisposed and didn't have access to the markets. So I missed that one.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Au contraire, TRI suggests baseline GDP climbed for the 26th consecutive month in June. There will be no monthly contractions in 2013. Note the same MW forecasters are predicting 2.5% & 2.6% for Q3/Q4 respectively so this is plainly a deceptive report...

     

    GDP outlook chart: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
    16 Jul 2013, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "This just in: Gold had its biggest rally in nearly two years last week, gaining 5.4% to $1,278 per ounce. The move came as large speculators raised bullish bets 4.1%, according to CFTC data. Bernanke's dovish comments were a nice excuse to buy, but about a 30% decline in price this year may have been a better one. "Gold may have gotten oversold and was due for a bounce, but a bounce doesn't a bull market make." says equity trader John Goldsmith. GLD is flat, but the metal is up another 0.5% today to $1,284"

     

    Is this a bounce or is the correction over??
    15 Jul 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    It,
    still of the belief it is a bounce.. However, tracking (GLD), it has finally closed over the descending trend line.. If one "believes" they can play for further upside. I will still look at the next hurdle of 1300-1320, IMO the long term downtrend is still in play ,and until that is broken the trend is down..

     

    Rally another 5-7% from here is not out of the question. But then ?
    15 Jul 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hedge funds getting into the act !

     

    http://bloom.bg/1464IR6

     

    Food for thought!
    15 Jul 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    More food for thought..

     

    For those looking at short term trends -- S & P 500 looks to be very "overbought" at present. Many indicators including The RSI (relative strength indicator) which is at 93, signal caution.
    15 Jul 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » " The powerful rally we've seen in stocks this year still hasn't lit a fire under the retail investor, with a recent Gallup survey showing that mom and pop have been not been big beneficiaries of the S&P 500'd nearly 18% surge in 2013 to a succession of record highs. Nearly 54% of retail investors told Gallup they've benefited only "a little" or "not at all" from the recent market rally. And they're perfectly OK with that. While missing the big gains, what's more important is that feel that as long as they're not losing money, they're on top."

     

    I found this quote pretty interesting and I guess most are either gun shy or don't understand the QE'S . Now could it also be that the older investors are more concerned about preservation of capital instead of profits at this point?
    15 Jul 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    This survey should be telling more seasoned observers that we're not approaching a market top. When "mom & pop" are complacent and thinking they're being wise, while missing sizable up moves, this merely indicates that the market advances have been slow and steady, like boiling a frog, and the retail investors have no sense, as yet, of markets running away from them. When that day arrives, and they're frantic not to be left behind, that will be red-alert day for a pending market reversal.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Not so sure I agree, I know families that are struggling that want nothing to do with this market.

     

    They have no desire to chase, no desire when they see their friends being delegated to part time workers to save the company from paying benefits.

     

    I just think the opposite, they are staying put especially since their so called safety net ( bonds) are also getting crushed as well !

     

    They don't have the experience you have, and were happy to get about even after 2008. They are scared if they are in their mid fifty's.. Just my reflection on this. No scientific study .
    15 Jul 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    The old normal for the SP500 and Dow were for an annual rise of 15%-20% range and with a much stronger economy; the new normal is for a 18% at midyear point and a weak economy; don't we know how new norms end up?
    16 Jul 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @RIN

     

    Glad to see you posting again!
    16 Jul 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    This shows two points that have been suggested here. This continues to be a "hated" rally , suggesting we are not near any "Major" top.

     

    Also, "tampat" brought up the point that at present there are a lot of people that have not shared in this "wealth" creation.. That's unfortunate , but from the sound of the last comment in that report , it seems to be "their decision" . (miss the gains but not lose money )
    16 Jul 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    u r right,, BUT when a lot of them cant stand it anymore and decide I HAVE to get in ---- It will be over !

     

    History has told us that....
    16 Jul 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Yeah, unfortunately we do have plenty of families struggling to make ends meet. I wonder if we have any reports to break down how many people in their 20's are investing money right now.

     

    My guess is the % is way lower then when I started . Just a guess but when I talk to my daughters friends none are as they rather pay their bills on time.

     

    When I bring up just invest $50 bucks a month they have no interest as they convey their pay vs their bills just doesn't give them a cushion.

     

    Do you have an opinion on this?
    16 Jul 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I would tend to agree with you about 20 somethings investing right now , but i'm not sure if this is a vast difference from the way it always has been...

     

    Sure there are stats out there maybe someone can get that info..
    16 Jul 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Things have changed in my lifetime. When I was in my 20s all I paid for was food, rent, gas and electric. Pretty much just the basics. I went to night school on a pay as you go bases so I never had a student loan. On my salary of $79 @ month I was still able to sock away 10% from every pay day.

     

    I have watched my kids after they left home and they have a completely different sense of what is essential. Cell phones, computers, Ipads, I pods, TVs, and the monthly bills that go with them for services, etc.

     

    The other difference between me and my children is I see debt as a bad thing, basically selling your future for present gratification. My kids don't see things that way.

     

    As another aside. Out of my whole family extended and other wise my sister in law and myself are the only ones in the stock market. Everyone else is in a savings account, CDs, bonds (mostly those 30 and older) or have no savings (mostly those under 30).
    16 Jul 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    Do market tops always happen at sheer exuberance? Or can it happen in the middle?

     

    Is there something about exuberance that in turn is essential to a crash? Not just the implication of timing from past patterns.

     

    And is this time different because from the last two crashes, mom&pop aren't interested in the market anymore. The high & then low, can happen without them even paying attention. The economy isn't supporting the run up, so the market is higher over the top, same as other times....just different base point.

     

    Plus this time, the bull is riding "belief in" QE, not economy. (Note: I said belief in, not actual results of QE).
    15 Jul 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    Notwithstanding what anybody "feels" or "believes," corporations are reporting all-time-record sales and earnings, and P/E's remain moderate, so it's not just some inflated fantasy that's supporting the market; it's hard, cold data.

     

    Personally, I believe there are lots of folks, who have missed the boat, and therefore want to construct a story that the gains are built on fiction because this makes them feel better about having not participated.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » tack

     

    No they missed the boat and have no interest in catching the next as they feel they might actually fall in the water instead. Wish you could understand this. Geez.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    You say this, as if folks have never gotten scared out of the market before. This song has been sung repeatedly: the late '70's, after 1987, the dot-com bust, the Enron/Worldcom meltdown, the subprime fiasco. There are always some that give up entirely, probably to their own detriment, but the world does keep going around.

     

    And, notwithstanding, new forces always arrive to make people reassess their earlier claims that "they're done." For example, for several years we've seen the most conservative investors seeking shelter in bonds, since CD's and money markets were useless. Now, they are on the leading edge of discovering that bonds aren't foolproof, either. And, I'll bet you they won't just put their money in a bag under the bed because people need and want to make gains, so pressure will build to see funds flow back to equities.

     

    I'd also add that the people who have very limited resources and truly are gone from markets for life constitute a near invisible amount of the capital surrounding markets, and what they do or don't do won't have much, if any, impact. Nonetheless, there are lots of others, who remain overly liquid and underinvested, and it's just that pool of undeployed funds which serves as a downside buffer to sell-offs. Tops and crashes, on the other hand, occur when liquidity is exhausted and already deployed. Then, there are no buyers when sellers appear.

     

    The conditions, presently, do not appear ripe for any collapse unless some extremely adverse global event would occur. Of course, such unpredictable events can happen any day of the year, but if that's the reason not to invest, then anyone spending time here is totally wasting it.

     

    One cannot plan sensible investments based on the possible, but unlikely, occurrence of things way out on either end of the bell curve, People should pay a lot more attention to corporate data and a lot less to news headlines, pundits and their own anxieties. It's essential to become objective and disciplined to be a successful investor.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Well maybe I am more aware of a family trying to feed their family rather then having season tickets to sports events. In fact just taking their kids to ONE game a year is what they can afford.

     

    Most have a breadwinner making either nothing or close to it. I know you don't understand this type of lifestyle, you have done much better and I am happy for you,

     

    Just telling you as their kids are closer to college, or worse yet graduated and can't find a job then it may make sense to you. They don't pick their own stocks, had 401k's for that.

     

    But times are tough for more then you know and it does make you gun shy ! The economic news isn't setting the world on fire either I might add.

     

    No, the money won't be under the bed. Maybe safely in a bank. But I can assure you they aren't entering these markets reading how the FED is involved in goosing the markets, and they may very well be right with QE'S.

     

    I know you don't think this is a factor, others aren't convinced as it seems BB cannot stop it .Mentions he might , but he can't. If he could he would have already. So I do feel for my friends in my circle. Yours are obviously in a different class. Good for you.

     

    Those corrections you talk about may very well be way overdue. I still don't get how everyone( traders) just sit and waits for BB to speak yet it has no impact on the markets? I still have a hard time buying that to be honest

     

    But what do I know. Still trying to get to a ballgame soon with my family. Cheap seat of course!
    16 Jul 2013, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    The economy isn't supporting the run up. Earnings are tepid. A bunch of earnings expectations were just downward adjusted. P/E judgements vary from investor's method to investor's method. Economywise various measures are marginally better & some worse, nothing solid enough even for tapering to be a shoe in. The economy is tepid.

     

    I didn't base my views on what I "feel" nor did I imply that I did. You read that in completely. We may be seeing different metrics, & you have much more experience... but I don't see a recovering economy supporting the market in the numbers.

     

    The whole "missed the boat sour grapes" story doesn't match what real life people are telling me, outside of SA. They aren't missing anything. They're thrilled to be ignoring the market & it's last decade. These same people were interested in the last 90s, and early and even mid-00s. The "missed the boat" story seems to support some kind of wishful thinking by investors, rather than real person surveys that I've seen.

     

    (Beats me why it makes investors feel better. They can claim the tepid feelings by non-investors about the economy, is not their real feelings about it, & dismiss them as sour grapes? I don't know.)
    16 Jul 2013, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    You said:
    "presently, do not appear ripe for any collapse"

     

    Very few are suggesting a collapse. You're arguing a postulate that isn't being argued by me. So let's stick to the topic. That the markets may be in for a downside, a correction of more than the 5% so far. A real correction, whatever that looks like. Not some doomsday scenario.

     

    You said:
    "There are always some that give up entirely"

     

    It's not some. It's many. It's not weakly. It's strong people who took a good look at the numbers for the last decade, & opted not to do this any more. Bonds were considered conservative investments! Conservatives didn't move from CDs to bonds as "new forces". They were already in BOTH. More of their $ moved into bonds to get away from ZIRP, but that's not new people, with new ideas, & new forces. And plenty of people have put their money under their bed through all of this.

     

    Yes, there's lots of liquidity out there. There's no sign they're interested in the market. It's not part of what's happening in the market. They aren't buying the dips. It can't be used to support that the market will keep climbing. They aren't disgruntled & waiting to jump in.

     

    I'm not sure what the discussion is about, what the point to be made is. But this isn't a rose-colored situation. It has it's pluses & minuses.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    I'm not even sure what this discussion is about, anymore.

     

    Look, lots of people have been scared. They got scared in 2008, and stayed scared up until these words were being typed, and they stayed out of the markets. They also assessed the economy and markets entirely incorrectly and have paid dearly in lost opportunity costs for having done so. Now, after the huge run-up, it's even more difficult for them to summon the courage to get back in because may thought the market was in for a long fall at SPX 666. Heaven know where they think it could fall from 1600+.

     

    One becomes a successful, and maybe even rich (over time) investor by making wise decisions, taking calculated risks, and trying to deal in objective facts. This applies to anyone with any amount of funds, who wishes to succeed. There's no point nullifying advice from those who have succeeded by saying its inapplicable to the smaller or less successful investors because unless they adopt some of the traits and advice that have led to success, then they'll remain right where they are, if not a worse place.

     

    There is no clever trick to avoid all risks yet succeed, nor is there any fast track to success by taking big gambles in risky stocks or large options plays. One will achieve investment success by being very disciplined and compounding less gaudy, but predictable, returns over and over again. And, those that start the process too late will just have to settle for less aggregate gains. There is no special pass to the front of the line to make more gains faster to make up for the years that might have been spent less productively.

     

    This is just the way it is. The best thing any investor can do at any age or level of wealth is to pay attention to those that have been successful and start to apply successful techniques, as have been offered by numerous participants, both authors and commenters, here in SA.

     

    Investment success is really mostly a mundane business. When it becomes too exciting and fraught with risks, then the success is usually elusive. But, in any case one must decide to be in the game to have any hope of success.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Apparently you have friends like I do who are FORCED TO LIVE paycheck to paycheck. Not by their choice I might add. As you stated I really don't see the financials setting the world on fire. JUST today retail sales was flat. I know it's a blip, but they were flat !

     

    We have a fake economic recovery with GDP now being downgraded to possible *contraction*. All this proves to me is BB was successful kicking the can down the road. Those out of work, or underemployed , will eventually work their way into the corps bottom line, and that bar has been set so low it is pathetic.

     

    It takes time for all of this to work through the system and it isn't going as planned imo,
    16 Jul 2013, 02:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Here, does this look "fake?"

     

    http://bit.ly/Y3TfIQ
    16 Jul 2013, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    How can you write that much, about a discussion, when you don't know what it's about?? :).

     

    Nor do I know why you suddenly feel challenged & therefore are saying, you as experienced should be listened to. If one is experienced, they can argue on the facts... and don't have to claim their expertise. If my facts are wrong (to the extent this discussion is about facts), I'm happy to listen.

     

    I felt need to respond because you put words in my mouth that I didn't say. Can you see that? A few people have said that in discussion with you, so it's not just me. In this case I never said I was judging anything based on "emotions" or "beliefs." It's insulting to imply that I'm that lame a thinker that I think only with emotions & don't even know it.

     

    You also make statements about non-investors & general public, claiming they're scarey cats that don't count & that they are gripey about missing the market. You haven't supported these claims with facts. This is NOT what I know of the many real world people I've talked with.

     

    This time IS different for THESE folks AT THIS POINT in time. You've said nothing that disagrees with that. On the long term view, yes eventually the markets will be supported by investors & bull away. Right now though, we need to talk about what people are doing right now, to look at the market right now -- which seems to be the topic of discussion for some reason.

     

    ----

     

    All I did was ask the following questions. I would STILL love an answer to these questions themselves. Not generalized philosophy of longterm market thinking. I'm into the details in life.

     

    Ques: Do market tops always happen at sheer exuberance? Or can it happen in the middle?

     

    Ques: Is there something about exuberance that in turn is essential to a crash? Not just the implication of timing from past patterns.

     

    Ques: And is this time different because from the last two crashes, mom&pop aren't interested in the market anymore. The high & then low, can happen without them even paying attention. The economy isn't supporting the run up, so the market is higher over the top, same as other times....just different base point. Plus this time, the bull is riding "belief in" QE, not economy. (Note: I said belief in, not actual results of QE).
    3.. The question - these differences in mom&pops this time, how does that effect things? If your answer is, it's not different & we're merely in the middle of the stage and that's why it looks different... then please say so succinctly.
    4. Another question: QE is new to being so much a reactor in a bull. So how does that play in. Your answer appears to be "it's the economy making the market run up." I don't see that, you're welcome to argue the facts on this based on your experience. What are the facts? Furthermore, I never said NEVER SAID, QE caused the markets to run up. I said very clearly & emphasized that "reaction to QE" is the factor. What is your view on that. Not QE & the markets, but QE reaction & it's effect on the bull.

     

    I asked some questions. I was looking for answers. Not attacks for my saying so. And even if I'm inexperienced I am ALLOWED to disagree with you completely!! That's life. Sometime the newbie has a point to ponder.
    16 Jul 2013, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    I wasn't commenting about you, personally, although you seem to have taken it that way.

     

    Moms and pops are just wholly irrelevant to the market behavior, period. The constitute neither quantity of capital nor trading volume. It simply does not matter what they do.

     

    Markets, absent some major events, don't generally collapse for no reasons when liquidity is high and skepticism abounds. There's a seemingly persistent mania about "crashes." Nobody can guarantee one won't occur, just suggest what history demonstrates.

     

    I remain amazed by the insistence by many, after four years, that markets haven't risen on actual economic performance, but by some mystical Fed levitation. The folks who believe this have mostly all been unsuccessful investors, thinking it was all going to implode, all along the climb up the "wall of worry."

     

    I challenge you to go to http://www.ycharts.com and pick out almost any variable you like, at random, then justify a claim that the market hasn't reflected results, but QE. Look at corporate revenues, profits, autos, retail, housing, credit delinquencies, exports, etc., etc.
    16 Jul 2013, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Still no answers to your questions but we now have unsuccessful investors. I am going to bed but let me add this game isn't over by a longshot yet,

     

    Lets see how BB gets out of this corner he put himself in. Debt eventually has to be paid and I can shoot holes in car loans, housing, retail, all day long. MAYBE TOMORROW.

     

    Just when you thought you have read it all!

     

    NITE.
    16 Jul 2013, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @@ Tack

     

    You've changed your statements. You've misstated what I said. You've not answered to my questions. Too many circles for me.

     

    Just one example on your changed statements. Now you've got mom &pops as irrelevant. Earlier they were side liquidity that helps prevent a collapse.

     

    Your challenge at the end makes no cents -- because what you're countering -- are misstatments of what I've said.

     

    I asked questions which I'd like to hear answers to, from anyone.
    16 Jul 2013, 04:17 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Different charts paint different pictures.
    Does this look like booming sales?

     

    http://bit.ly/16G7cl8
    16 Jul 2013, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Another article about retail sales 'growth'.

     

    Economic Growth Looks Weaker Amid 'Disconcerting' Retail Sales Growth

     

    http://bit.ly/12CTgL1
    Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!
    http://bit.ly/12CTgL3
    16 Jul 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Another article about retail sales 'growth'.

     

    Economic Growth Looks Weaker Amid 'Disconcerting' Retail Sales Growth

     

    http://bit.ly/12CTgL1
    16 Jul 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Agree totally with what Tack has stated ,most have concentrated on the "fed" and "noise" while losing,sight of the price action and the record corp earnings.

     

    A comment from
    - CNNMoney, May 9, 2013
    "We can argue all day long about whether quantitative easing policies from the world's central banks are doing much to help the economy. But this much is for darn sure: It is boosting a wide range of financial markets ... So, why are some of the people who you would think would be the biggest beneficiaries of this strategy so angry about it?

     

    .. it may just be more convenient to blame the (bearded) man behind the curtain as the master market manipulator than to own up to your mistakes."

     

    A theme I have noted among many I talk to ..

     

    When QE, Zero interest policy was announced we were told what asset class would benefit - equities.
    To oversimplify, there were 2 camps , those that started to invest, those that said "its gonna end badly" .. That 2nd camp "may "have their day , in the meantime they miss the wealth creation and blame the "fed" . 
    16 Jul 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT, Tack,

     

    I understand the psychology that is in place now regarding the markets..
    Most are still very fearful.. Understood.

     

    The best example i can give in a few words-- Those accounts that recently went thru the WORST financial crisis in our history and did absolutely nothing to their equity accounts , are now ahead of where they were before 2007.

     

    Add a little management to those accounts and you have nice gains , booked profits and set up a div stream that may last your lifetime..

     

    Food for thought.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Earnings are at record highs, PE ratios are not inflated, the "noise" about earnings boils down to analyst estimates.. Whether a company makes or misses by a penny from their sometimes silly analysis. Overall earnings support these prices. Now we have to see if that continues.

     

    At present there are no signs of a "major top" and imminent collapse as shown in the S & P LT chart i posted. Also no other "signs" in place to support a major top here.

     

    What i will concede is that we may have reached a point of an intermediate "trading top ' being put in place . Something to think about , for sure, make minor adjustments in LT portfolios if one wishes.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    anyone using the word "contraction" is selling "fear and noise"

     

    mark my words - We will hear more of that "noise" and "fear" in the next few months. Now its a question of how one will react to that "noise"

     

    We have heard "noise" for months, this time is different? I suggest not.. Most of the data supports what has transpired.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Looks pretty good , supports the nice gains the retail sector has garnered this year.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    Great point, shows how data can be presented then interpreted. You highlight my point about tempering the "noise" but looking at price action.

     

    I wont throw charts up here suffice to say many retailing stock have had huge gains this year. Now do I care what data chart they read?

     

    I watch the price action, it tells a lot more
    One investor wil do that , make money , other investor wil look at that data as an absolute and stay away or get emotional and "short" .Same story gets played out every day.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    If you read what I stated and consider carefully, I did address your questions. What issue is it with which you either don't understand or agree?

     

    As F&G reconfirmed above, we don't get blow-offs amid skepticism and broad lack of participation. You seem insistent on apprehending a scenario where they can occur at any moment for no particular reason. It doesn't happen mid-cycle unless some major extraneous event occurs that upsets the existing paradigm.

     

    The market hasn't fallen appreciable, even though it's tried repeatedly, because there's simply too much liquidity outside of equities that's looking for entry points, so dips beget buying. This is coming from some investors, who were previously in bonds, gold and cash. The mom-and-pop element in all this is negligible, so why bother to even discuss it?

     

    What is the key issue you want answered that you think remains unanswered from all the foregoing dialogue?
    16 Jul 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    You nailed it succinctly. Those who have not performed well need more mirrors and fewer megaphones.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    That's all well & good, it has close to nothing to do with my original post if you go back to the beginning. I was asking a few questions. I haven't gotten response on them.

     

    I'm exhausted at the tangled mess this was shifted into & repeating myself.

     

    I never mentioned earnings. Nor P/Es. I just said IF EXCITEMENT about QE was running up the market, with more influence than the fundamentals....then asked my QUESTION. And plenty of experts have said that's possible (case in point YOUR quote FG.) So mine is the question NOT arguing with me about QE.

     

    I asked darn good questions & they've gotten lost in the shuffle.

     

    The traditional is, the bull ends when the mood is exuburance & everyone is in it. BUT does that have to be every time? Has it been EVERY TIME? That's a question. From my educational background (includes research), it's excellent to challenge assumptions. To look closely & see what the assumptions contain. Trues are truths, but sometimes what we think of as correlations aren't absolute.

     

    Also if the bull ... I don't have time to write it out again.

     

    ------FG:

     

    From what you post here on this topic, YOU DON'T AGREE WITH TACK. He thinks QE has nothing to do with earnings. Your quote says " But this much is for darn sure: It is boosting a wide range of financial markets "

     

    From you: "To oversimplify, there were 2 camps , those that started to invest, those that said "its gonna end badly" .. That 2nd camp "may "have their day , in the meantime they miss the wealth creation and blame the "fed" . "

     

    And the 3rd camp. Mom & pop's who couldn't give a hoot. Didn't have an opinion on QE & the markets. Just looked at the last decade & think the mattress is a better way to grow money. They're not even noticing there's a bull. NOT EVEN NOTICING. Not a single person in my entire life at this point even knows a bull happened. They aren't blaming anyone.

     

    But that's for the two of you to argue.

     

    Earnings ARE being downgraded for this quarter. So that's relevant to THIS point in time. And if earnings were fed by QE like you quote says, then that's relevant & supports my original IF question.

     

    I have to go & don't have time to word this well. But I'm am very frustrating to be expending time trying to straighten out what I didn't say & argue what you don't even agree with between you two. I don't care. I had some questions & don't appreciate that along the way I got called emotional, & that they got twisted into a topic I'm not aruging that wasn't MY TOPIC. And if you can go back & not see that, then you aren't reading carefully enough... it happens.

     

    Again too busy to proofread this & see if it's sanely written & stated.

     

    Also frustrated at going around and around the same 5 statments on markets we have for two month, when I was adding NEW questions & angles to look at.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    Tack

     

    Yes I agree with you that companies are reporting all time record sales and earnings but this is being accomplished at the expense of the workers by cutting their wages and benefits while a CEO/CFO collects 100x to 300x more than average worker; this is not a fantasy...for how long can this continue?
    16 Jul 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    You raised an interesting point. You mention 2 different types of investors and the way they view the data and react. One follows price, another interprets the data as bad and stays out.
    There is a 3rd type of investor. One who see's the data and thinks, depending on the data, thats BS, or, uh-oh, but also continues to let price play a role in their decisions to buy/sell.

     

    I get an impression from reading differnt posts by different people that some people think just because one is critical of the data or the way its compiled that must mean the person is out or on the wrong side of the market. It isn't that cut and dried. I suspect there are a lot of people who are invested, who think the data is BS, but somewhat nervously still hold on and get the gains.
    16 Jul 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat ,

     

    for that third type of investor , good for them, they realize what really matters. If one employs good risk management, one has nothing to be nervous about.
    16 Jul 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    your comment:
    "The traditional is, the bull ends when the mood is exuburance & everyone is in it. BUT does that have to be every time? Has it been EVERY TIME? That's a question"

     

    Yes major tops have been achieved when the exuberance is out of control.
    Your comment:
    YOU DON'T AGREE WITH TACK. He thinks QE has nothing to do with earnings. Your quote says " But this much is for darn sure: It is boosting a wide range of financial markets "

     

    That wasn't "my" quote it was from a CNN money article that was trying to prove a point about people "blaming" the fed, instead of blaming themselves for missed opportunity.

     

    Your comment:
    And the 3rd camp. Mom & pop's who couldn't give a hoot. Didn't have an opinion on QE & the markets. Just looked at the last decade & think the mattress is a better way to grow money. They're not even noticing there's a bull. NOT EVEN NOTICING. Not a single person in my entire life at this point even knows a bull happened. They aren't blaming anyone.

     

    I don't think the 3rd camp has much to do with the market , so i'm not counting them in any discussion. I'm speaking to those that are in the "bear" camp, or "disbelief" camp. The opportunity was there, they decided otherwise , so according to them , its all Ben's fault .

     

    Your comment:
    Earnings ARE being downgraded for this quarter. So that's relevant to THIS point in time. And if earnings were fed by QE like you quote says, then that's relevant & supports my original IF question.

     

    Again ,not my quote, i used that as an illustration.

     

    Earnings have been downgraded from lofty levels earlier this year to the present 1% or so for this qtr. They are analyst projections.
    Analysts are often wrong.
    Bottom line --corp earnings are at record levels. I wont get into debate on how much QE has had to do with it .. I like to keep it simple, stocks trade on earnings, earnings are good, stocks have gone higher. So that's all that matters.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    Tack

     

    When GS, JPM, and other investment banks report 100% wins on their proprietary trading of 60 days or so, that's fiction!! maybe that's why people are not getting aboard; after all how many times you can fool them?
    16 Jul 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    Rin:

     

    What does that have to do with the overall market or performance of many companies in the economy? If GS makes 100% or loses it's butt that doesn't change my attitude at all about how companies are doing in which I am investing or why they are doing well?

     

    The only fooling going on is that those who have stayed away have fooled themselves, and most aren't happy about it, but many wish to blame someone else, e.g., the Fed, Bernanke, banks, pundits, fund managers, anybody but themselves. The decision to invest or not, make or lose money, is 100% at the discretion of each investor, for which he alone bears 100% of the responsibility for the outcomes.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin

     

    Good point that fooling & manipulations are going on... and it has an impact on what retail investors think.

     

    It's worth exploring how manipulations are happening... and how it's being viewed by retail investors. I haven't been reading articles on it nor stats. Only in the mention of flashcrashes, & that it creates concerns.

     

    This all of course has to do with the overall market, but less so with an individual stock's assessment. Still as Weintrab says in his book, the macro is a big part of assessing on when to buy into individual stocks.
    16 Jul 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Rin,

     

    But when JPM reports the" london whale incident "- thats fact , now everything else is fiction? Would you agree that your statement is a bit skewed.. ?

     

    The" fooling & illusion" that is bandied about is quite funny...

     

    I'm not investing in Mcdonalds cause Jp Morgan is lying. ??
    16 Jul 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    From Rin: " GS, JPM, and other investment banks report 100% wins on their proprietary trading of 60 days or so"

     

    But how does THIS effect potential investors? Does it? Aren't these in that group who didn't invest because of QE & are now gripping? With the last crash involving banks, trust in banks being shaky, could have an impact. On what & in what way?

     

    It's worth asking the question. Enron's lies effected the whole market. So JP Morgan's lying could have an effect too, but obviously lessor.
    16 Jul 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1029) | Send Message
     
    Tack
    Why is that when I throw in a fact to your posting, it has nothing to do with what you say? So the market rigged up with a guaranteed bet for GS/JPM and others and you fault people when not getting aboard; maybe people are starting to get smarter, which they are, and that's why trading volume is down and whatever volume is 50% computer generated; imagine what trading would be like without computers?; but can you believe it that SP and Dow keep going up with low volume? I don't know on what world is your logic? this is not helpful for beginners
    16 Jul 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    Rin:

     

    If you believe the market is rigged and nobody else can make a buck, then you have learned almost nothing about investing and what drives markets. Examine the economic results since 2009, as I suggested elsewhere. People sabotage themselves by believing all kinds of nonsense that simply isn't reflected in the data.

     

    And, I wish I had five bucks for every time I heard somebody exclaim that low volume indicates that the market is weak or may soon collapse. That only applies AFTER large high-volume market surges, when credit and liquidity is nearing exhaustion, and few potential buyers with funds remain to absorb shares. Now, we have exactly the reverse, several years of low-volume, disbelieving markets, with absolute seas of liquidity everywhere -- vash, gold, bonds -- but in equities. A high-volume buying surge hasn't even been started, as yet, much less nearing exhaustion.

     

    Yes, yes, people are getting smarter, especially the ones outside the market while it has registered 150% gains. Please.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Rin

     

    Try not to let Tack's style get to you. He honestly doesn't know that he's worded this in insulting ways.

     

    The factual information in there I see to consider is about low volume timing. Makes sense to me that low volume counts towards a crash only after the high volume run up.

     

    However, that has nothing to do with the point you were making about low volume. You were just saying it shows exactly what Tack said too -- that there's lots of people on the sidelines.

     

    So back to your point.. lies & manipulations effect whether people get into the market. I still think the Enron example gives the same image.

     

    Thanks.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    "There is no special pass to the front of the line to make more gains faster to make up for the years that might have been spent less productively."

     

    Nothing can make up for lost time in a long-term conservative investment plan but that doesn't mean we can't find attractive investments at a later age. Advising everyone that there is only one method of investing which is to start early and be conservative is great for the 2% in here that have the years and desire to do that. Real value in advice comes from stepping out of the box and offering some solid investment tips and strategies that apply to various conditions and situations.

     

    It goes without saying that no one can offer no-lose answers but most of us are also looking for a lot more than "start real early and use only the tried and true strategies I used." No offense TACK, but its not rocket science to tell someone age 12 that if they work real hard and save real well, they will have money when they grow up.
    19 Jul 2013, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    CURLS,

     

    Bravo... love it when someone just tells it like it is... thumbs up!
    I f i could give you 10 likes for that one, I certainly would.
    19 Jul 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    rich:

     

    Yes, starting early is best, but my point was about the sometimes behavior of those that didn't.

     

    My point is and remains that there are folks, who didn't invest for years, or employed the wrong strategies and had poor results, who, now, suddenly want to discover how to hit the accelerator and make up for all that lost time and effort. And, I'm saying that over-reaching is fraught with its own dangers of obtaining yet more poor results. One must accept the past for what it was and commence anew in a thoughtful measured way, not look for a stream of home runs, when a consistent pattern of singles and doubles are what's required.

     

    I believe I've offered vast amounts of strategic advice, based on first-hand experience, here in SA over the years. If you can find useful nuggets, great. Some will benefit; others not.
    19 Jul 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Perfect post! ... and I confess I often feel that way. At first I didn't have much to work with so I didn't invest and then in 2008 I trusted another to guide me and got hammered. Ever since I have been trying to learn. Yes, I get that "I want to hit a couple home runs" feelings nowadays but I am also realistic and understand those are far and few between. IMO silver has potential to be one of them so I am in it. That said, I have most of my portfolio otherwise to adjust each year and while I can live without a home run, I would really like to hit a couple doubles and perhaps stretch one into t triple. Thats why i am trying to learn more and more every day. i believe some big hits are still out there.
    19 Jul 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    rich, I'll jump in on this one if you don't mind. It's a hot one today and I'm looking for an indoor pursuit. My question is "what causes you to believe silver has good potential here?"

     

    My pessimistic nature tells me it doesn't. It had it's run and there are so many out there that got burned by the run up that it will be extremely difficult for it to make significant advances. Gold is key to it, and gold is a red headed step child on Wall Street these days. I found it more than a little interesting that early this year a poll found that most Americans thought gold was their favored investment going forward. If that isn't a red flag, I don't know what is. Wall Street has once again shown it's prowess at shearing the herd.

     

    That being said, I am in the position of having "disposable income" and disposed of some of it on physical silver just this week. I do so with the realization that it may be passed on to my heirs as Dad's silver stash with no significant financial return. The summer doldrums are historically the best time to buy and I consider the risk/reward in my favor, but not excessively so.
    19 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Agbug,

     

    Based on what I have learned over the past five years through both first hand experience and a lot of reading I believe silver is a very good investment. Yes, quite a few people buy physical and view it as an asset to be passed on to the kids. That is a great strategy if you have the luxury of putting money into it and never needing it for yourself. My hope is to build upon what I have now, use what I need over time and ultimately leave the unused portion to my only child. In that sense, some of my silver may end up serving that purpose also.
    That said, and going for real basics, I believe that silver is used faster and more than it is mined which by definition makes it more rare every day and if that is true it should be worth more. Just the fact that silver is used for many reasons betond collectible items is important to its value now and in the future. There seem to be a million and one reasons silver prices are kept down including massive manipulation but that only makes the eventual break-out that much more enticing.
    Another reason I like precious metals, silver being most affordable for me, is because unlike stocks and companies, it always sustains some value. In addition, historically the price runs in cycles and although its difficult to time those cycles they do seem to occur.
    For me, silver is a "solid ground" investment because it will always be there. My initial plan is to double up on my silver interests in a couple months which in effect will average down the price. If silver rebounds as I expect it to I will sell off enough of my stock to regain all I put into it and then play on house money the rest of the way. That, of course, will take time and patience, both of which I like to believe I have.
    I will not claim to have the fool-proof winning argument for silver but I would suggest reading up and watching Mike Maloney. Yes, he sells silver and gold so one can argue that "of course he will keep telling you to buy," but he has logic and history that he uses to prove his theories. In addition, I have read many times over on the internet and in magazines that those who believe in silver do so emphatically and each offers their own theories and reasons.
    So, in the end, its just something that makes sense. Anyone can look back 20 years and say Apple was a great investment back then when everyone claimed it was going under but its those people that have the instinct and perhaps guts to jump on the train when it is sputtering out knowing it will gets its legs back under it soon enough. I truly believe 5-10 years down the line and perhaps sooner, I will be saying those ever annoying yet significant words.... "I told you so."
    With all that said I do not plan on exceeding 15% of my portfolio with silver. I read a long time ago when metals were doing well that was a good percentage to have in a diverse long term portfolio. I see no reason to change that philosophy.

     

    ROS
    19 Jul 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    ROS, it's a little odd how in line our outlook is, with a couple of differences such as scarcity. I target 15% as well and was selling fast when it went parabolic in 2011. The recent market downturn has taken care of the rest of that problem and I'm increasing my holdings as of late to get the percentage back up. I have a few reasons for scaling up again - the GSR is at 65 +/- indicating a bear market, the melt value of a silver quarter won't buy a gallon of gas in most regions, whereas at the peak in 2011 it almost bought 2 gallons, on a 5 year chart silver has rebounded from this level every year from the summer doldrums, the general consensus seems to be that "silver is a suckers game" and you're a fool to be buying it. It's as tough a market as any to play and patience, perseverance and an unemotional perspective are all requirements.

     

    Thanks for the response and the best of luck in your endeavors.
    19 Jul 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10251) | Send Message
     
    Just to add some new blood here.... ROS and Agbug. What are your thoughts on swapping physical gold for physical silver at this time?
    20 Jul 2013, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for asking for my input, Mark. I know some try to adjust to market conditions that way and with a GSR of 65 I suppose a case could be made for doing so. It just seems to me that the transaction cost and current silver premiums would negate the benefit in all but the most extreme circumstances. It just so happens we witnessed those sorts of extremes the past 5 years when the GSR went from 90 or so down to 30. But who knew that was going to be the case? It makes sense in hindsight, now that we know what the ratio was. To repeat that set of circumstances seems like a stretch to me - unless the bull market isn't really kaput. I suppose the attractiveness of that transaction depends on the volume of the trade, and the perspective of the individual. I personally think the recent average GSR of 50 or so represents equilibrium, with 30 and 70 being the extremes. Funny how that coincides with RSI standards isn't it? If an individual adheres to the 16:1 bi-metallic era ratio then the trade would be compelling. I don't happen to myself so I just hope to ride the silver market volatility to some gain.

     

    Has the question been a significant topic, or more of an interest of yours personally?
    20 Jul 2013, 03:43 AM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    I will have to offer a less detailed analysis plus my opinion. Gold is an investment only... silver is also used in industry, the key word being "used." That depletes supply unless mining out numbers usage and from what I understand it does not. Also alluding to the ratio.. so many have said over the years the gold to silver ratio should be 15:1 or 20:1 and yet it is a far bigger ratio. Using the notion that it one day will move closer to what is expected, silver prices should rise or gold drop significantly. I expect the former. Finally, I refer back what I mentioned before, Mike Maloney and his theory of cycles. I believe we are at the beginning of an upward move in the present cycle and silver has plenty of upside, probably more than gold. Also, just to take a middle class view for a moment... you get a lot more bang for your buck buying silver than gold and should silver outperform gold, one can imagine the light at the end of the tunnel can be very bright.
    20 Jul 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10251) | Send Message
     
    It's been more an interest of mine personally. The last attempt I made was trading Silver for Gold at about 45 (if I recall correctly). It was a "small" transaction.

     

    I agree transaction costs are an issue. Particularly with premiums being now what they are, and possibly about to go up with news of gold shortages (physical) continuing with JPM's latest news of holdings and COMEX inventories continuing to go down.

     

    Rich, thanks as well. I don't know if I think the ratio will revert to the "natural" ratio in my lifetime, but I know that there are certainly circumstances that could push it in that direction. At 20:1, I think I'd be trading for Gold.

     

    These are "Interesting Times".
    21 Jul 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    One stock to own:

     

    I would not own one stock, but would own an S&P500 index fund or ETF and be either in it or out of it using a timing model or moving average, like Fear and Greed Trader's 20 month MA. I would use a 9 or 10 month simple MA with a 20 month ExpMA.

     

    With the S&P500 you will NEVER own a stock that blows up like Enron. The bad stocks will drop out of the 500 (hopefully) before they go to hell and will be replaced with stronger companies.

     

    Here is Mebane Farber's (author of The Ivy Portfolio) website that shows his timing model based on his 10 month MA model. Free papers on this website too, like his "Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" white paper.
    http://bit.ly/oQ9uD5

     

    Another concept is the Permanent Portfolio (Harry Browne) of four asset classes: Stocks, bonds, Gold, cash. Some people would add additional classes like Foreign stocks and more than one currency for cash. My twist on this is to use a timing system as mentioned above to get out of asset classes that are headed south.

     

    I attempt to do this my self, but I have to work on the discipline and execution of it a lot.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    Some here will tell you gold is a worthless investment. Any answer to that?
    16 Jul 2013, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Word of caution for all here. Including myself let's just be careful of our wording. Emails and Posts are the worst to interpret because we don't get the flavor of what is really intended.

     

    Now back to the *LIKES*. I looked over a full chapter and sooo much great information has been presented without many getting at least ONE like.

     

    I guess this is the new norm, I wish we could reward each other on good comments. Oh well.

     

    Meanwhile CURLS asked a few questions that I hope a few look back over and respond to ??

     

    Thanks!

     

    Looks like inflation ticked up a little higher then expected? ( just to start a conversation) . Gasoline was higher then expected but other numbers were in line.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Goldman Sachs just blew away the estimates. Plus it looks like the markets are awaiting BB's chat this week. Am I mistaken?

     

    I am seeing another non eventful day. Coca Cola disappointed though. Blamed challenging environmental issues ??
    16 Jul 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Christopher F. Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (1194) | Send Message
     
    (GS) never misses because they own the politicians. (KO) always a strong buy when dividend at 3% if you can get it. Stocks I am watching with great interest, (SNTA) (VGZ) (MTGE).

     

    also picked up 250OZ silver at $18.80 recently. Pleased with the purchase

     

    Nice thread here.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CHRIS

     

    Great price on that physical. Have you penned any new articles that fit our profile? If so could you provide a link?

     

    Thanks!
    16 Jul 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • indianamark
    , contributor
    Comments (2025) | Send Message
     
    I am still waiting for the break out of precious metals. From every indication, it will be one for the history books.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @INDIANAMARK

     

    Can you make a case for those who feel gold and silver are terrible investments?

     

    Thanks!
    16 Jul 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • indianamark
    , contributor
    Comments (2025) | Send Message
     
    That would require an entire article. Two very telling arguments are:

     

    The U. S. banks, according to the BPR, went from $19 billion short of $1800 gold to $5 billion long of $1200 gold. While JPM has yet to deliver gold outstanding since 5/31/13, they are taking delivery of over 90% of the silver delivery on the Comex this month. (and btw while JPM's customers were being called for delivery,JPM, in their proprietary account, was taking delivery. Would you expect that from those fine, upstanding citizens?)

     

    Why would everybody be trying to lay their hands on all of the physical gold and silver available if they didn't expect the price to increase?
    16 Jul 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Curls and Tack had an interesting exchange both with some valid points.

     

    Tack is right in that the smaller retail investors don't move this market, its the big money hedges, funds, etc. He is also right that they have missed out on a big run up.

     

    On the other hand, many in the retail investor group are just sitting it out. One can argue then that they are missing the boat but I don't think that's the point. They don't care. Return of or safety of their money is more important than the risk of losing it. After 2 crashes in 10 years there are a lot of people that have had enough of that.

     

    The morality or ethics of purposely creating such an environment that punishes savers, who are likely to be older and risk averse, is something to question.

     

    The stock market is the only game in town so you either play or stay home. This is on purpose, the Feds 'wealth effect' game in full view.

     

    That leads one to wonder, are stocks rising based on strong economic fundamentals or simply because it is the only place one can park funds to get any kind of return?

     

    I argue its the latter. Economic performance is not to a level that supports such a strong rising market.

     

    The criteria used to determine things such as GDP, unemployment, inflation have been jiggered to show results that show better performance than it would show if the previous way these things were calculated were used. This is intended to try to convince people things are fine.

     

    Some things have definitely improved compared to 2008-2009.
    However, if you have a kid in school who brings home a report card of all E's and then next time brings one home with all D's, then yes, he did improve, but he is still failing and/or his performance is still unacceptable. Just because something improves doesn't mean its good. Yet thats the logic given by some to keep pumping up the markets.

     

    Yes, the markets have gone up a lot and anyone not in has missed out, that can't be argued. But thats not relevant to anything. In the past when the smaller investors saw the market go up they eventually joined in, and thats the sign of a top. I would argue that may not happen this time, that group are sitting this one out.

     

    If things are so fine and dandy in the economy, why does the mere mention of ending QE or tapering send heads reeling?
    If the economy had any strength to it QE could end and the momentum of this strength in the economy should be able to continue to power it higher.

     

    But it can't because it isn't really there. Its an economic bicycle on training wheels. Take away those training wheels and watch what happens.

     

    Does anyone have any faith at all that the dysfunctional gang in DC can fix whats wrong or is it more likely that the issues that keep being swept under the rug or kicked on down the road at some point create the crisis that cant be papered over with more dollar bills.

     

    The goal is to keep throwing money into the banks and markets to create an illusion of improvement until things actually do improve to the point where the economy can stand on its own 2 legs, but we aren't there and it isnt imminent.

     

    Yep, the markets can continue to power higher being fed by an endless supply of QE induced enthusiasm and we don't have any other options if we want to earn any kind of income from savings. Thats a reason this market is so hated, because its been designed to be the only option. Another reason is because it is mostly benefiting the wealthy who have the money to invest as the gap in income continues to widen.

     

    I have no idea when the music will stop, this could go on for some time and I understand that being used as a reason to stay invested and its not necessarily a bad reason. Just be ready to grab your chair when that music stops.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,
    your coment :
    "Just because something improves doesn't mean its good. Yet thats the logic given by some to keep pumping up the markets."

     

    Something i have posted here and elsewhere, "markets don't trade on absolutes, they trade and react to change. "

     

    It is a concept that is counter intuitive, difficult to embrace.. When someone grasps that concept, the positive results will be played out right before them ,, This present market is no different. Everything isn't rosy yet we are at new highs.

     

    Now, When everyone 'feels good", and the masses join in we will be at the top. We are nowhere near that yet.
    16 Jul 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    You've posted a lot of thoughts I've seen plenty & agree with. Thank you. They are counterpoints to Tack & F&G's statements.

     

    @ Tack, FG & Tampat

     

    This wasn't an interesting discussion with valid points raised. I didn't want to discuss this topic at all. I didn't bring it up. It was generated by Tack out of a 1/2 a phrase buried in my original post... without the actual content & questions & was actually focused on.

     

    Obviously I've gotten frustrated here. I'll drop it now. But please understand that this wasn't the topic I was discussing.

     

    @ FG

     

    In the exchange with Tack, he was stating that my statements were completely out to lunch. You may agree with him. However, your quote matches MY statements, therefore showing that not just me, but others assessing this market are saying the same thing. So Tack's claim that I am to inexperienced to make the comments doesn't hold water. That was my point. Again, not a topic I care about... so I'm backing out now. Just my honor I was defending.

     

    @Tack, F&G

     

    On the part of the quote about investors missing the boat & blaming -- my reaction the first time I read that quote weeks ago was - that's a lame quote. They don't support it with evidence & it sounds like CNN running stuff. This whole line of thinking doesn't match anything I've seen in concrete research anywhere. Till I see it there, I'm not using it in my assessments. To me, it sounds like an emotional comment ("people are blaming & sour grapes" is an emotional comment), and therefore something to dismiss or at least be very, very cautious with.

     

    See I have learned from you both, about filtering data. I'm applying it to this statement. That's part of why I'm puzzled about why you both aren't applying your own advice here...
    16 Jul 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    curls,

     

    Sorry I included your name in my post, I had read through all of them pretty quickly. Going back and reading again I see where some of your frustration came form.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Understood,

     

    When I agreed with Tack I was agreeing to the facts and principles he stated nothing more, nothing less,
    I wasn't agreeing to any comments that may have been directed towards you. In the future , I will state what I am agreeing to .

     

    I will disagree now that the CNN quote was lame. I hear the moans e very week, Its brought up here and elsewhere on SA. constantly, it IS the lynch pin of the entire "bear case ", which to date is Wrong . Am i wrong ?
    You can certainly believe it or not, however in my opinion its fact. I have stated it here before, the clients that decided to sit on the sidelines in cash and some bond exposure are the most vocal now regarding the Fed.
    I cannot come to any other conclusion than to believe that quote.
    Anyway I understand your frustration.. 
    I'll try to do better...
    16 Jul 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I cant follow what you mean here.
    What are you saying is the "lynchpin of the entire bear case"?
    16 Jul 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG & Tampat

     

    Thank you! Much appreciated.

     

    Now onward to discussing... what were we discussing? Belly buttons, oil, gold (always)....? Hum.

     

    Hope we ALL know more tomorrow afternoon... but I'm not holding my breath... just buying back in for a while if the market doesn't go down. That's my plan. And I'm sticking to it.

     

    Maybe.
    16 Jul 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat ,

     

    Sorry, amazing how confusing some of comments can get while responding. My fault

     

    What i was referring to is the CNN quote which suggests that the people that have chosen to sit out ,blame it all on the fed, rather than their inactions. I have found that to be the case

     

    In addition, the "bear" case states the economy , markets are all an illusion, all while they sit on the sidelines. These are the frustrated bears that state "its all the Fed (QE)" , throw criticism at fed policy rather than look at their own investment thesis.
    16 Jul 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,,

     

    IMHO market is tired & overbought.. that could all change within a few trading days.. I am really on the fence here ,as to which way the market will break , but i'm leaning to the downside. I'm referring to the short to intermediate time frame. Longer term still looks ok, question is if we will get a chance to buy at lower prices soon. I think those chances may be good.

     

    16 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    So you're basing your claims of whiners on those you have contact with in your business. That makes sense. I haven't met a single one in real life. So I'm thinking... maybe we need to differentiate groupings more clearly & which ones we think are having what impact... when we write.

     

    So my views of who's who -
    Mom & Pops aren't in the market & don't know a bull is happening. They go tired of crashes (not scared of one, but tired of the whole sequence). They're putting money under the mattress. That's everyone I know. They are gripey about ZIRP. It's also lots of retired people who have a reason to want interest rates instead of equities with many years of being taught now's the age in their life to move to bonds & equities. (Maybe these are a fourth group.)

     

    Those in the market - may be happy with the bull, but plenty are grippy & unhappy with the manipulation by Fed. Because it makes it harder to invest on fundamentals. Krusty vented on that one day here. So even if someone's in the market they aren't necessarily thrilled with the Fed.

     

    Not in the market because of Fed & QE & disaster coming & blaming the Fed. I haven't talked to any. I have yet to see a serious statistic of how many & money is involved in this.... nor a survey of what would get them into the market nor how this is effecting the market. I have no idea myself.

     

    I think if we talk about each group distinctly, we can dig in better.
    16 Jul 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I still not entirely sure I know what you mean in the last paragraph.
    Or, maybe I do know but dont understand the relevance.

     

    "...blame it all on the Fed"...

     

    Blame 'what' on the Fed?

     

    I dont understand how you are trying to connect 'blame it all on the Fed" and that they should "look their own investment thesis."

     

    If this is too nit picky feel free to ignore this, but I am not seeing your point.
    16 Jul 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG & everyone --
    That leads to another of my questions I've been pondering...

     

    When the Fed speaks & the market goes down, I hear these:
    1) Investors are reacting to Fed & tapering
    or
    2) The market technicals were ready to go downside, and that's all this was. Not so much Fed reaction, as built in anyway.

     

    So which is it? My observations is much more #1 than #2. The correlation down to the minute is obvious.

     

    Though as I write it occurs to me... maybe in the weeks before the Fed speaks, the markets set up knowing they will speak, and that's why the TAs are right at that point to reaction just as the Fed speaks every time?

     

    Any opinions?
    16 Jul 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2534) | Send Message
     
    Curls: I have not read this line of discussion, but would simply note that there are a large number of households who have owned and continue to own stocks. The number is somewhere over 50%.

     

    In just the 2013 first quarter, the Fed's most recent report on household wealth showed a $1.5 trillion increase in household wealth from "corporate equities and mutual funds". http://1.usa.gov/KDf0sF

     

    The census bureau also tracks that data in Table 1201. The last tabulation was for 2010 which showed $8.514 trillion in equities owned by American households excluding mutual funds and ETFs. Equity mutual fund holdings were reported at $4.801 trillion and stock ETFs at $854 Billion.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Wzc2fn

     

    There is a chart for just about anything. Goldman Sachs has one that shows the breakdowns of equity ownership since 1945. The percentage owned by households has been much higher since about 1993 than between 1945-1993.

     

    http://read.bi/13sm3gT

     

    According to polling data, which may not be accurate, the percentage of household owning stock, either directly or through a mutual fund, has been declining but is still over 50%:

     

    Gallup has been asking that question since 1998:
    http://bit.ly/13sm4Bh
    16 Jul 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,
    Not nit picky , in my travels both here & real life. I find that those that do not believe in the market and suggest the markets "should" be much lower ( Bears) , constantly state equity markets are all an "illusion" and it has been caused by the fed and their programs. What I suggest to them is that maybe they have it wrong , (surely they have had it wrong since QE began) . So instead of making "excuses" and allocating "blame" maybe they need to re visit their overall investment theory, look in the mirror and blame themselves instead of fed policies. They have their conviction and I respect it, but it gets tiring to hear their investment theory, that clearly hasn't worked.

     

    Hope that helps. I believe I know where u are coming from , & understand your feeling & position on the markets.
    16 Jul 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    answer might be a little of both. Don't forget, short term & day traders will give you that initial reaction (#1) so for the sake of this conversation lets not call them investors.

     

    Intermediate guys , 2 - 6 months or so , they will pay attention to the the technical picture as it's being presented at that point in time (MA's , resistance levels , etc. ) # 2 (down or up)

     

    LT investors - shouldn't get involved in the day to day discussions.

     

    As far as your assessment of the tech analysis as we stand right now u r correct. funny how IMO at this exact moment the market is at a crossroad. right near resistance of the old top .. do we break higher or fail & move lower ?

     

    My .02
    16 Jul 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Bears

     

    I think we need to start differentiating types of bears.

     

    1)
    There are perennials that look at a bull & call it a bear with an identity crisis. They are claiming full crash to come.

     

    2)
    There are bears who say that reaction to QE is a significant part of the market run up. They're enjoying the bull, but see the eventual sequence happening through their view of QE's influence.

     

    3)
    There are bears who say it's been a bull, but we're nearing a top, (some because of QE tapering)... and are NOW turning bear. (Personally when I say bear, this has been what I've meant.)

     

    4)
    There are bulls, who see no bearness in sight. They don't believe QE --- NOR REACTION TO QE --- are what's created this bull.

     

    Do I have the categories right? Might help as we talk, if we know which ones we are talking about.

     

    Also some investors focus on QE's influence or lack of. Others focus on QE REACTION's influence or lack of. That difference is important.

     

    @ So FG
    You are referring to perennial bears. What about the views, in terms of other more recent bears?
    16 Jul 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Perennial bears are just that, no matter what the environment /time period they are negative on equities.

     

    The "beranake era" has spawned a whole new set of bears. To some degree I understand their position. They simply disagree with policies and the effect on the markets. But to date their "call" has been wrong

     

    My .02
    16 Jul 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "But to date their "call" has been wrong"

     

    You are correct so far. Let's see where we are in a year ! Better yet, let's see how much water BB needs to drink when he speaks this week.
    My gut is he becomes a politician and says nothing to upset the applecart. But one wrong word and watch the markets react !!
    16 Jul 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    FOMC text & Bernanke pressers have been consistent with their guidance for well over a year. You appear to be confusing cable news noise with actual facts. Aside from confidence issues, their objective is to guide and explain the economy and the timing of future actions. Most issues wrt stock indices and bond yield volatility have more to do with punditry ... not facts on the table.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    Okay so we need to add a 1b) category. Perennial Bernanke era bears.

     

    Their views are similar to the 2)s in their views on QE, maybe even more dire. Their bearishness is specific to the Fed stuff & not perennial to all markets.

     

    That's who you mean when you talk about bears, in what I've gathered.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Sounds good, we may need to add another category when Bernanke leaves office

     

    but thats good for now. :)
    16 Jul 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY

     

    I disagree, we have seen so many FED'S coming out to do damage control that in no way BB has been consistent. Consistently making people bail him out as the markets drop pretty quickly once he opens his mouth.

     

    That I agree with. The speculators hang on every word, the investors not as much.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Do you realize that the perpetual Chicken Little's have watched a 150% gain go by while they're waiting for their momentary orgasmic excitement, when the market pulls back 20-30%. They'll then be jumping up and down, declaring victory, while those that stayed invested will be miles ahead of them, even after the pullback.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    But on the flipside what about a person who just started Investing a year ago? A 20 to 30% pullback can devastate someone. Especially if they are older.

     

    Please keep that in mind. Some here haven't done this for 4 decades.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    The markets can decide to commence a normal 10-15% correction on any day of the week, so anyone who cannot decide to make any investments because the market may go down, instead of only up, is simply defeated before they start. There is never a single day that I purchase a security and say to myself, "whew, I'm glad there's no possibility that that security or the market could decline in value."

     

    One should be looking at fundamental issues about individual investment candidates a lot more than trying to play guessing games on market direction. It's simply impossible to predict in the short term. And, anybody who can't tolerate a temporary paper decline in the value of one's investments, probably should not be investing, period, because the likelihood of that occurring somewhere along the line is quite substantial.

     

    The foregoing is why I recommend portfolios with substantial yield because, then, if the price of an issue declines, or the market has a hissy fit, one just keeps banking the yield payments, and maybe even buying more shares at discounted prices with those same dividends.

     

    I'd add that older investors should place more emphasis on making sure the income that there investments generate is secure than in worrying about the paper fluctuations in price. Unless they plan to liquidate the securities in the short term, price isn't vital, but the income stream is.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    Your missing my point. Say a person who is in his mid 50's gets laid off, now he is trying to learn how to invest to get that income stream. Lets say he invests and within 6 months the markets correct 10 to 20%. Now the person gets nervous and sells.

     

    That is why I started this blog. To teach people to learn from others, or quite frankly to just stick the money under the mattress. But do we really need to call them chicken little?

     

    Did you read my last comment in this chapter ? I am not kidding about deleting comments that offend people. Explanations are great, insults aren't. Please be careful.

     

    Thanks!
    16 Jul 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I didn't miss your point at all. If an investor is going to panic and sell out if markets decline for a period, then, they shouldn't even be here. Yes, pick a mattress. Investing has an unavoidable ingredient of risk. Nobody can avoid it. If it cannot be tolerated, then the game's over.

     

    Since it's unavoidable, that why I suggest forming portfolios with significant yields. Reaping yield can make up for temporary price declines, provided, of course, the investor doesn't panic and dump everything. That kind of emotional reaction is a killer.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack,

     

    What positions are in your portfolio that gives a great yield without undo risk? You said something about 9% which is quite a solid return... not something I've seen from much of anyone.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12761) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    Presently, 9.56%, to be exact. Here's an approximate breakdown, examined different ways. The first number shows the percentage of portfolio; the second the aggregate yield of that line item:

     

    By Category:
    common - 55%, 9.8%
    preferred - 32%, 9.3%
    debt - 13%, 9.1%

     

    By Particular Type of Issue:
    common shares - 45%, 10.0%
    preferred shares- 30%, 9.3%
    debt issues - 3%, 8.0%
    ETF's - 22%, 9.1%

     

    Common Breakout:
    Agency REIT - 11%, 12.6%
    Commercial REIT - 24%, 8.3%
    Healthcare REIT - 2%, 7,4%
    BDC - 47%, 10,5%
    Bank - 11%, 9,5%
    Telecom - 1%, 13.4%
    Other - 4%, 9,6%

     

    ETF Breakout:
    Debt - 9%, 10,2%
    General Equities - 34%, 9.7%
    Preferred - 5%, 7.7%
    Convertible - 28%, 10.0%
    Realty - 15%, 7.5%
    Floating Rate Issues - 9%, 6,8%

     

    The above numbers reflect allocations in my largest account, approximately 80% of assets. My IRA's are weighted toward energy and resources, but at more moderate yields.

     

    I would caution that this portfolio is heavily weighted toward financial issues, which is a sector in which I specialize and have lengthy experience. I could not recommend this portfolio to a novice investor or one who did not wish to actively manage one's account.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Very well put, Tack. The gutless should be investing in GICs, bonds, mortgages & money funds. This has nothing to do with age. Some just don't have the constitution to weather ARMs on the borrowing end or risk to capital on the investment side. That said, many that may have the nerve don't have the patience or aptitude to do their due diligence...
    17 Jul 2013, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I saw a comment you made to someone that they go back and read this chapter, so decided to browse through it to see if I missed anything.

     

    After thinking about your comments above about markets trading on change vs absolutes I see just what you are talking about. I think that should be such an obvious concept, but it isn't.
    Anyway, I see your point (finally, it took a while to sink in).

     

    Any you were right, there is a lot of good info in this chapter.
    19 Jul 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    You have no idea on how long it took for me to embrace that concept. It came form a mentor of mine who finally drilled it into my head by using examples on individual stocks, then applied to the overall market.

     

    Its totally counter intuitive ,, its just not the way we are programmed to "think" .

     

    19 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3536) | Send Message
     
    @ FG, Tampat

     

    I've certainly heard the concept before, that the market's are forward thinking & trading on anticipation. Which is why a great earnings, can tank a stock if it's less than "expected." (It's not the earnings that count because it's been trading on the expectation of good earnings for months. It's the change from that to a lessor, that defines what the stock will trade at.)

     

    Are there any examples or moments of discovery you can give?

     

    In the macro market environment, is the market now trading on expectation that the economy WILL recover (even if eventually), hence the newest bull movement ?
    19 Jul 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4548) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    It may be the case that we are at a crossroads in the market now. SO far we have seen this move based on the improvements that have already shown to be fact. Now , comes the question for the near term ; will the market continue to go up based on more positive change OR will it pause here, evaluate earnings, economic projections , etc. Kinda reevaluate where stock prices are. I still lean to the pause & reevaluation theme for now... and being patient.

     

    19 Jul 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2534) | Send Message
     
    Curls: The market is a decent future forecaster but is not infallible.

     

    There are many examples from the past where the market sees a positive change but there will be a large number of talking heads who are still naysayers stuck in the past.

     

    Prior to August 1982, the market had been in a long term secular bear market, marked by a lot of up and down motion but going nowhere. The S & P 500 started 1966 at 92.18 and was at that level in 1982.

     

    Inflation was the problem. It was out of control. The FED took decisive action in the late 1970s and CPI started to trend down. It was still hot and high though in August 1982. The market saw that the problem causing the bear markets in both bonds and stocks had been cured yet many investors were focused on the past still and the current CPI numbers.

     

    So one of my favorite examples relating to what F & G is talking about comes from August 1982.

     

    Notwithstanding the still hot CPI numbers and the 16 years of problematic inflation,the market took off, starting on August 17, 1982 with a S & P 500 close at 109.4, up from 104.9 the prior day:

     

    http://yhoo.it/13Trixo

     

    By the end of August, the S & P 500 was at 119.51 and continued upward to close at 140.64 by year end (34% since mid-August 1982) and barely looked back before the October 1987 crash, hitting 336.77 by August 1987.

     

    The move which started on August 17, 1982 was predicated on inflation being cured even if most investors did not yet grasp it. It was also the starting day of a long term secular bull market.

     

    The market probably sees things in the future now that the naysayers may not even acknowledge until years after those powerful positive forces become obvious.

     

    But, the market sometimes sees things that are not there, particularly at the individual stock level. The pricing at the individual stock level can frequently be irrational. Even when the aggregate price for stocks is rational, there can be hundreds of clearly irrationally priced stocks and then there are periods where pricing discipline can be lost altogether (late 1990s), in which case the aggregate market forecast about the future reaches the delusional stage. No rational prediction about the future could have justified the 1999 stock prices.

     

    And, sometimes the market is a little slow in seeing rot underneath the surface (run up to October 2007 even though the subprime fiasco was made clear in February 2007) or the change for the better (the last two or so months of declines into early March 2009).

     

    The future forecast expressed by the movement of major market averages is pretty good long term, sometimes a little slow to catch on to the change, but generally better at recognizing the change than the individual participants in the market in isolation.
    19 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1683) | Send Message
     
    Curls-100

     

    The markets certainly trade on anticipation which is the situation with gold and silver at this point. The markets anticipated much stronger inflation due to ZIRP and QE. So far it has not happened and gold and silver are correcting. Fear has subsided in European markets and it appears the Euro may survive. Of course, circumstances could change very quickly.
    19 Jul 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2534) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I would take that example further. I thought that QE would be inflationary when it was first announced in mid-March 2009. The price for both gold and silver took off, starting the next day. Gold had moved from around $280 in 2002 to over $800 by March 2009, but the move from March 2009 to $1900+ by September 2011 was based on that view which was rational. Money printing at that kind of level was rationally viewed as potentially inflationary.

     

    By September 2011, there had been two and one-half years of inflation data and the market had to come to grips with reality at that point. QE was not causing inflation, at least not now, which started to cause a reassessment of why CPI had remained so tame.