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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 26............  173 comments
    Jul 16, 2013 6:57 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: POST POLITELY !

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Comments (173)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I appreciate comments about this blog..

     

    Ok TRIVIA....How many total runs will be scored in tonight's ALL STAR GAME? You go over the total you lose.

     

    Polls close at 8.30 pm !!! I will pick 8 runs...

     

    CURLS, even YOU can pick a number......
    16 Jul 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    IT...

     

    hum, not so easy to pick a number. ...so what sport is tonight's game?

     

    I see runs... so I'm going with baseball? I pick 5. No particular reason.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Wade Boggs, Red sox, Yankees
    16 Jul 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I changed the question. But great pick...
    16 Jul 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    i'll go with 7
    16 Jul 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You got it ... 7 and 8 are taken !!
    16 Jul 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Curls has 5
    Fear has 7
    IT has 8 .

     

    Polls are closed. Winner gets a 100 oz gold tungsten bar from Doug..
    16 Jul 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    But will it have a black market from the rubber band? Did they ever solve that question?
    16 Jul 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Honestly it does not alter the price. It might not look pretty but it is still worth the spot price..
    16 Jul 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    From FG in the last blog:

     

    "A question I have for those that have "issues" with the present Fed policies. let me state that I respect all views on the present situation.

     

    in your opinion where would we be IF , no QE, no Zero rate interest policy .. economically , markets.. or we will never know ?

     

    I have an idea . but i"m no expert, and many of you have more knowledge on this subject than I

     

    --------

     

    I have less experience, but I'm going to give an opinion.

     

    1) Without QE & ZIRP we may not have made it out of the bank/Real Estate crisis.

     

    2) That said, I don't think it's helping enough to justify itself any longer.

     

    ZIRP is too much harm on those nearing & in retirement. Thank goodness, long term is finally going up a little for them.

     

    QE has the market under manipulation. Maybe it's floating it and that would be better than a crash. (It is the only ballgame in town because of ZIRP, plus good low interest for businesses.)

     

    But if QE isn't helping the market & economy, the manipulation is doing damage. Too many people are too nervous about whether to get in because they can't do it based purely on fundamentals. Too much macro is "QE-reaction" dependent. BB said it's losing it's effectiveness & usefulness (I think on May 22).

     

    I can use myself as an example. I came to the market in April to double my money invested in the market. For the next month I did research & by the time I went to go in.... I opted instead to get all out on May 22. I've since figured out it's not going to be an immediate crash, but I do expect a sizeable correction. Now I'm waiting. If they want to taper in Sept or Dec or never, I don't care. BUT TELL ME WHICH. I will put my money in the market as soon as the reaction to the annoucement is absorbed by the market. Now as they manipulate, I'm in a hated position of wanting to get in... but not being able to do in on my judgement of fundamentals (regardless of whether I judge them good or poor.) My money grew nicely in my past buy & ignore strategy. I'm not losing it in bulk (even 10% will feel like a lot)... because of a QE announcement, not actual economic influences.

     

    I do expect that a year or two after QE's ended (if it ends for good this time), the market will have climbed & will be at big risk for a crash from the fallout. I'm not sure what QE is effecting (bank CEO's salaries?) But there will be stuff whether known overtly or covertly. By then the Fed won't be positioned nor paying attention to catch a downward trend fast enough.

     

    After several months of reading & listening, that's the path through the data that I've come up with so far.

     

    PS. I should be 90% in the market by age, but hadn't gotten to it (personal events). But I got motivated to come look because ZIRP was beyond low by now. I think they're charging me to keep my money. I'm gutsty compared to everyone I've talked with, who still is more intent on the mattress than the market.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    Leaving the market on may 22 which was the big "reversal" day may not have been the worst thing. Since u are out & in cash , I will tell u what I would tell anyone in cash right now sit & wait for better entry prices. It may not adhere to the "rules" of LT investing. But instincts tell me to be patient now..
    Put together your plan in the meantime , how much for long term , maybe some intermediate term holdings. Pick your entry points and invest portions of your total at various points in time..

     

    Over time it will work - no matter who is in charge of fed . :)
    That is a proven time tested strategy.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Curls: I am moving more out of than into the market at the present time.

     

    I would recommend refraining from making all or none investment allocations except during those relatively rare events such as the clearly excessive valuations in 1999.

     

    I do not believe that the FED's decision to taper and ultimately end QE will have a long lasting impact on stocks due primarily to the benign inflation forecasts that will keep a lid on interest rates rising to problematic levels. So, while it is just my approach, I would not be keying off the taper talk when making longer term investment decisions. I expect both QE and ZIRP to end, the only question is when.

     

    While a 4% ten year treasury yield may sound bad, given the abnormally low rates since 2008, that rate has historically been a benign one for stocks. Rates were much higher between 1982 to 1987 and 1991 to 2000 when stocks had robust returns and slightly higher in the 2003 to 2007.

     

    If I was all in cash now, I would agree with F & G's recommendation. I would hold off until there is some kind of meaningful correction. I pointed out a chart to you earlier this evening that showed four dips since March 2009, so corrections will happen.

     

    However, the problem with predicting the future is that neither F & G nor I can tell you whether the next 10%+ correction will take us below where we are now and by how much, if any, below the current level. In other words, it would be possible to have a 10+% correction after a 12% further rise. There is just no one to know for sure one way or the other. I would just say that my feeling and opinion is that the market is overbought and in need of at least a 10%+ correction until we have more data suggesting economic support for the current stock market trajectory.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    If you want to read something about economic policy, QE and more read this link, but especially the commentary of Lawrence Kramer, who understands Fed policy better than most, in my estimation:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Jul 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I will, Thanks!
    16 Jul 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ Fear & Southern

     

    Thanks for the advice. I've been thinking if the market doesn't panic over something BB says tomorrow, it's going to bounce up some more. I'd get in for a little while & then see what seems to be happening. (Now that I'm out the tax impact has happened, so it's easy to get out again.)

     

    Your identical (lol) advice is good though! -- to wait for that correction now that it's likely here soon. At the least, get ready for some slow buy ins. I can afford the holding pattern ... as long as I don't let worry over QE-reaction stop me from getting into more of this bull.... I've been a buy, & hold through thick & thin. Being out of the market feels bizarre to me.

     

    Much appreciated!

     

    @ Tack

     

    That is a great article. He really covers clearly some factors on QE impact.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    IT: Always a good idea to figure out where to take money off the table after a good winning streak. I need to learn that lesson when playing blackjack.

     

    I have been reducing my stock allocation some in areas that make sense to me. In my regional bank basket strategy, I have sold six 50 share positions based primarily on the recent surges in price coupled with the non-emotional application of my valuation criteria.

     

    I first start with my valuation criteria for this sector. While I would jump at an opportunity to buy more of General Mills at a 15 P/E multiple of trailing earnings, that multiple would be near the top of my valuation range for a regional bank during a period of economic recovery, where loan losses are deaccelerating and have returned to normal levels for banks that I would normally consider purchasing.

     

    Why?

     

    Regional banks will not grow their dividends and earnings at the same rate as a PEP, KO, or GIS, nor will the rate of growth be as predictable or reliable. Moreover, in my lifetime, regional banks have managed to blow themselves up repeatedly, with large numbers going through near death experiences or actually succumbing to a FDIC seizure. Banks will be more seriously impacted by a recession than a consumer staple company.

     

    So, I am going to slap a lower reasonable multiple on non-recessionary, normalized earnings growth for a bank. An 18 multiple for the past twelve months is just way too much and will likely trigger a sell for the small positions held in the regional basket strategy, all of which are non-core.

     

    Another point is to avoid being a pig for stocks where a 30% gain in five years would be considered good. The gains in the 50 share lots sold are as follows:

     

    Percentage Returns/Approximate Time Period (Excludes Dividends):

     

    SYBT= 16.86%/ 3+ Months
    TRMK= 21.8%/ 7+ Months
    UMPQ= 30.73%/ 8+ Months
    UVSP=33% / 16+ Months
    BHLB= 31%/ 16 Months
    ONB= 15.78%/ 2 months

     

    I have not discussed the first four yet in my blog but the trade snapshots are available in my Gateway Post for this basket near the end:

     

    Stocks, Bonds & Politics: REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST

     

    As to the first four stocks, I will discuss the reasons in more detail in my next post but the reasons involve valuation and profit taking. I am at least attempting to follow an objective discipline, both as to buying and selling.

     

    Part of my reasoning was reinforced today by examing the earnings release from Comerica, which I do not own. I wrote a preliminary paragraph about that good bank's earnings for my next post which highlights some concerns:

     

    Quote of Draft Section for Next Saturday's Blog:

     

    "I follow a large number of regional banks. A couple of weeks ago, I looked at my monitor list and could not find any to buy. That was another signal to me at least to lighten up.

     

    I became somewhat more concerned after Comerica, one of the larger and stronger regional banks, reported earnings last Tuesday. I have no position at the current time.

     

    Comerica is headquartered in Texas and has branches in California, Arizona, Michigan and Florida with 484 offices and total assets of $62.9 billion as of 6/30/13.

     

    CMA) | Comerica Bank
    http://bit.ly/12U5nQ5

     

    That is how I approach a decision to take money off the table.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    I bet quite a few haven't as they think this market is heading to 20k on the DOW...
    16 Jul 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Reply to myself:

     

    Part of the quote dealing with how Comerica's earnings release reinforced my opinion to pare was left out by SA for reasons unknown to me. While I doubt that anyone would miss it, the last section of the preceding comment makes no sense to me without it so here is the omitted part:

     

    "For the 2013 second quarter, the net interest margin declined to 2.83% from 3.1% as of 6/30/12 and 2.88% sequentially; total deposits increased 1.49% and loan growth was up less than 1% sequentially; and the efficiency ratio was reported at 66.43% down minimally from 67.53% reported as of 6/30/12. Non-performing loans declined to 1.18% from 1.78% with the NPA ratio declining from 1.85% to 1.1%. SEC Filed News Release While declines in NPLs is positive of course, growth in earnings going forward will be more dependent on net interest margin expansion coupled with increased loan growth funded by low cost deposits, with an assist to profits coming from an improvement in the bank's efficiency ratio. Prior to this earnings release, the consensus E.P.S. estimate was $2.81 in 2013 and $2.86 in 2014:

     

    *******

     

    I give up. Part of it was deleted again.

     

    The part deleted this time involved the firms dividend history and lack of projected earnings growth with a TTM P/E of over 15.

     

    Dividend History:

     

    http://bit.ly/12U5nQ5
    16 Jul 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    IT: I remember, like it was yesterday, when it was a really big event for the DJIA to cross 1,000 and then stay over that level for more than a few days. Sometimes, it is worthwhile to stare at a long term chart of the DJIA, just to keep things in perspective:

     

    http://bit.ly/vLHnKP

     

    There will be long periods of going nowhere, but the trend is up. Bonds work until they fall into a long term secular bear market which last happened between 1950-1982, sort of death by a thousand paper cuts until the coup de grâce.

     

    Stocks have been during my lifetime a major source of wealth creation but it is not going to be a straight line up and certainly not smooth sailing with no adverse weather events.

     

    The DJIA will hit 30,000 in my lifetime, no big deal really, just another 100% or so gain from where it is now.

     

    Between now and then, there will be a number of scares that will shake investors down to the roots and cause even seasoned investors to cry for their mamas. I am certainly on the seasoned and sautéed side myself. I lost count of how many 20+% corrections that I have managed to navigate. I do remember those that were more than 45% (1974, 2000-2001, 2008-March 2009).

     

    The market is simply not going to bestow its rewards long term without those scares, nor will there be any fundamental change in the nature of stock market cycles since humans are not likely to change and will repeat the same or similar mistakes over and over again.

     

    There will be periods like 1929-1942, 1966-1982 and October 1997 to March 2009, when investors will be punished, spanked, tortured and left hanging to twist in the wind. That's just the way it has been and will always be.

     

    So it is first necessary to come to terms with the game as it is, rather than the way that we would prefer it to be.

     

    I would much prefer a steady 6% real rate of return every year from stocks. Just plant my money tree in the back yard and periodically pull off bills when I need them-no need to water or to feed or even pay attention to the tree. That is not going to happen.

     

    What I will receive is something in the neighborhood of a 14+% percent annualized return for a decade or so, adjusted for inflation, in the S & P 500 with dividends reinvested, with several scary declines, followed by a decade or more of minus 1% annualized declines with at least one really scary 45%+ decline and possibly two of those monster catastrophic events.

     

    Sa la vie is about all that one can say about it.

     

    ********

     

    As to QE and ZIRP, I am in the camp that the FED is causing more harm than good at the present time. The SA article cited by TACK is another one consistent with my views. As I have noted in the past, there was a study published several years ago that pointed out the negative impact from these abnormal economic monetary policies.

     

    In the previous recoveries from recessions, the average risk free interest rate was far higher than now, and the recoveries occurred were more robust than the current one. There are reasons why that happened.

     

    Study Summary:

     

    http://bit.ly/YF81Ij

     

    Trillions of dollars are not earning any return for savers and consequently will retard their spending.

     

    Corporations are sitting on an abundant amount of cash:

     

    http://bit.ly/190n7Mq

     

    Banks are not lending as much as they would with an adequate net interest margin which would justify taking the risk.

     

    While I viewed QE and ZIRP as necessary during 2009-2011, given the severity and nature of the crisis compared to garden variety recessions, positive returns have been diminishing from those highly abnormal policies and are now a net negative in my opinion.

     

    Instead of helping a recovery, the continuation of abnormally low rates, unjustified by current and anticipated rates of inflation, is now without question in mind retarding economic growth and causing non-economic based decisions throughout the economy.

     

    The long term positive impact comes mainly from QE which has allowed individuals and corporations to refinance at abnormally low rates. And it was important in 2008-2009 to provide abundant money to the system to help meet the demand for money and to stabilize the financial system that came very close in October 2008 to a total meltdown.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    Really excellent comments.

     

    QE needs to end for two reasons:

     

    1) Liquidity restoration, which was the aim of QE, has been entirely accomplished, and then some;

     

    2) Consumer credit formation is finally showing signs of advancing at a brisk pace. This si the signal to the Fed to start reeling in all those excess reserves.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Based on what i just read in your last post in Chapter 25 , I am disappointed. However i understand. Just as it may seem frustrating for you to hear the counter arguments , it is also frustrating for those that present those arguments Knowing they are and have worked recently , just to see them dismissed. No one has all of the answers , but to oversimplify things , I go with whats working..

     

    One of my more recent posts , I stated that I am at a total loss to provide more evidence to the investment theory I subscribe to. A thesis that has worked and to date is still working . Yet the statement of "we'll see where we stand a year from now " and similar responses from others over the past few days - well , I have no more answers.

     

    I'll try to put efforts elsewhere, stop in form time to time , but from now on I will limit time spent here.. many here are in a different investment world , and of course i wish them well.

     

    No hard feelings.. Best to you :)
    16 Jul 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I was not pointing a finger at anyone in particular. I just felt that some were getting a little too personal to me. Like I said I ref so once I speak it is over with.

     

    I spend about an hour a night looking at other articles and inviting posters and authors to join us. I have no problem with any bantering as long as it does not get personal. People can feel strongly about their opinions yet can respect others.

     

    I read a few posts where this wasn't the case and people were getting defensive. Like I stated we are all here to help each other and if someone is offended and decides not to post here I really don't care.

     

    The pay ain't great running this and some will not dictate the rules to me in PM'S . I do my best , and want others to just be polite. So just understand where I am coming from. We have lurkers who might just stop reading if everyone is defending themselves all day long.

     

    I respect your position and you respect others so were fine. But just read that chapter and I bet you will see where I felt it was starting to get a little too personal to me.

     

    Personally I might not agree with all but I never dismiss it. Who knows whose correct anyway..
    16 Jul 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    FEAR,

     

    You clearly have years of experience and a wealth of knowledge to share but by your own admission you are not infallible so you need to stop getting insulted and threaten to leave every time someone disagrees with you.

     

    We all agree that a slow, long-term, well-researched and carefully planned lifelong strategy is a great way to go. Fact is, 98% of the people reading and posting in here either don't have the time, money or both to follow the basic long-term strategy. I am one, so what we want to gain here is some insight into some good choices moving forward. Of course no one can realistically expect a home run from a perfect stranger no matter how experienced, but we can expect knowledge. There is no greater gift you can pass on than the knowledge of experience and how that knowledge can help make decisions moving forward for those unable to spend the next 30-40 years with an ultra-conservative approach.

     

    I am only in my fifth year as an independent investor but I love learning and along the way I have closely followed silver as I have stated before. I simply offer the basic logic that silver (and other PMs) seem to go in cycles and we are at what appears to be a bottom. I think we hit it in late June and are climbing out slowly. IF and only IF I happen to be right, there is no better time than now to buy PMs. So, that's the information I offer. Now, I am looking for other choices for myself. I just found out that the 10% I have access to within my IRA happens in early October and not mid-November as I originally thought. That means I have two months to make a decision and I am in here looking to learn so I can make the best decision for MY situation. Your long-term advice on proper investing is useless to me because I do not have the time to follow your plan. To others, your advice is probably quite significant and appreciated.
    I am just saying that you and all members need to stop going to extremes... one day you post 25 entries and the next you threaten to leave because someone disagrees. REALLY??? We need and want everyone to stay in here and contribute but there are going to be varying opinions and that should not chase anyone but rather prompt more facts and valid points.

     

    Quite frankly I thought the last chapter deviated far off the great path we were going on. I am still brand new to BDCs and want to understand how to best select 1,2 or 3 for my long term investment plan. Long-term for me meaning anywhere from 5-20 years. As much as I would love to see the stock price go up over time, I can be happy with it remaining stable and increasing in small steps over the long haul. My paramount concerns are which ones are solid enough to likely be around a long time, not lose much of its stock price (hopefully gain) and offers a nice dividend. To me, finding a few of these is a great plan for anyone at any age.

     

    I see some giving 7, 8, 9% dividends. Those, reinvested back into the stock can really grow quite fast in a short amount of time. THAT is what I need to learn about. Over the next 2-3 years I want to reallocate my funds toward dividend paying stocks that will allow me to build up the portfolio over the next ten years to a point where I can start taking monthly dividends as a partial income to survive in a modest but comfortable single life existence. If I can gain solid knowledge and choices about these things in here, I would be both thrilled and grateful.
    That's my two cents and my reasoning for being here. I hope those who believe they can help me will offer their opinions. Thanks.
    19 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Rich,

     

    I'm not "threatening" anything, certainly not "insulted" , but stating my views at the time to people who as simple as I can state, have had it "wrong".

     

    I post when i believe i can make a contribution, some days a few , others as many as time can afford.

     

    Conversly, I thought the last chapter (25) had some of the best dialogue on where we have been , where we are and where we may go in the markets.

     

    If you truly want to "learn", please go back and read , then digest, then look around the present environment we are in. some of the knowledge that was shared there is invaluable...
    19 Jul 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Every chapter in this forum has had some really good posts and advice but with that said, the bickering and whining was excessive in the last chapter.
    19 Jul 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Rich,,

     

    Totally disagree. Just simple facts that were being stated .
    19 Jul 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    ROS:

     

    You're coming to the chapter -after- we've moved on. It's best to then read forward to the next chapter... and check in (even in Private Msg) with IT or others, to see where things are out.... so that you don't accidentally reopen what's already been hashed.

     

    That chapter did have some tough spots. We all worked on working them out. We've been moving on. So it's all cool now. Anything new comes up, I'm sure the person feeling it will say so.

     

    Fear has a right to his opinions, including his opinion of participating in the blog at any time. I respect his technical expertise, but also his generosity at sharing with us.

     

    So I know it's frustrating to read through posts that are at odds... but it's good if we can get re-focused on our "mission" -- to make alpha (and at the least less delta (D-in greek)) & have fun with each other in the process.

     

    Meanwhile, can I open the door Rich & make a request? If you feel someone's inputs aren't what you'd like. Or they aren't of quality enough. Let it be & not comment. You've made a number of posts of this nature, & it's part of creating a negativity, instead of making it easy for everyone to post. I find it confusing when you ask for advice then reject the advice. You don't have to like it, but if someone attempted to help, it's good to be appreciative, then decide what you like for yourself. I don't agree with everything I read here -- but I don't have to. Nor does anything have to be useful to me. I know you'd like to get to financially comfortable as quickly as possible, but to do it through investing in the market, takes time to figure it out -- more than most things take (I've noticed.) So hope stuff here is helping. Always works to look for a positive way to ask for other inputs which do not "call anyone out" for what they did post, and I'm sure new, more advice will appear.

     

    Hope this helps :-)
    19 Jul 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ROS

     

    I think you made your point. Now as I have warned others it is time to stop your bickering. I have told others the same. Just because I am not on this computer 24 hrs a day give me time to catch up as well folks.

     

    I also deleted my comment a day ago related to FREDDY. So no one is immune to removal. Degrading the links are my concern. Keeping posters here as well. Some comments aren't at everyone's level, yet I respect them all..
    19 Jul 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    "but it's good if we can get re-focused on our "mission" -- to make alpha (and at the least less delta (D-in greek)) & have fun with each other in the process."
    "Always works to look for a positive way to ask for other inputs which do not "call anyone out" for what they did post."

     

    Well put and I am listening. Sometimes I intentionally bring up an opposing view because I truly disagree and seek reasoning about the opposing view... are there fact to support the view or is it someone's opinion only... to me that makes a difference.. Other times I post without appreciating completely how it will appear to others so I can indeed be at fault in that respect. Moving forward I will say thanks to all who take the time to genuinely contribute and help. I have indeed learned a lot and have no desire to alienate anyone so with that I offer my apologies for posts where I have done so.
    19 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Richonsilver! That's very big of you to say so, & much appreciated.
    19 Jul 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    IT wasn't dismissing the arguments nor asking you not to post them. He's said over & over that all views are welcome. So if his comment read otherwise, I'm sure he can explain it more (from PMs I know what he was trying to get it.)

     

    He was just trying to stop the putdownish feeling that had started up. For instance, the repeating of "blaming the fed" was used to claim I didn't have a right to my views (not by you obviously). That's what he was trying to stop repeats of.

     

    Sigh, I thought this was all settled & back on a good track with no more misunderstandings. :(

     

    Do you count me as in a different investment world than you on this topic?
    16 Jul 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    No, I believe you have similar views as mine, and doing your best to learn

     

    17 Jul 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Hello Curls. Hello IT.
    I normally don't trade bio-pharmas, but do you know anything about KERX? It does have decent volume. Just looks interesting to me as it seems something is cooking there.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @trade

     

    Hello, I am sure either SOUTH, TACK, or FEAR might have an opinion on these..

     

    Nice to hear from you again.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Tradewin: When looking at a stock like KERX, my first decision will be to assign it a risk classification that will dictate the limit on my financial exposure. I have classified KERX as a potential Lottery Ticket purchase that limits my monetary exposure to no more than $300 plus any prior net realized gains. I have no prior trades, so my limit would be less than 40 shares at yesterday's $8.4 per share price.

     

    I publish a table of stocks in my Lottery Ticket Basket strategy on the last Monday of each month

     

    Click To Enlarge at
    http://bit.ly/14H8vAK

     

    Snapshots of realized gains and losses can be found at the Gateway Post:
    http://bit.ly/TkDIoK

     

    I reached that risk classification based on a number of factors which I will just briefly mention in no particular order:

     

    1. I pulled up a long term chart at YF, going back to 2000, that highlights the risk in graphic terms. The stock had traded over $18 in 2006 and at $.21 as late as 2008. My first question, which needs an answer, is what went terribly wrong. I did not dig into that query yet.

     

    http://yhoo.it/14doeLr;range=my;compare=;ind...

     

    2. The company has no current product revenue and the near term price will depend on the FDA's approval of a drug called Zerenex. Sometimes, the FDA surprises everyone by requesting more data on the benefits and/or risks. I would at least read at some point before making a purchase decision a summary of the phase 3 trial to see whether there were any serious side effects which may cause the FDA to delay or even deny approval.

     

    http://bit.ly/14doeLx;highlight=

     

    3. Another reason for the classification is based on the self realization that I am not qualified to assess that drugs potential or even the likelihood of a FDA approval without asking for even more trials.

     

    I did read a Motley Fool article which claimed that peak sales for that drug could reach $300M in the U.S. and $800M worldwide and the current market cap represents fair market value. The stock did make a move from around 2 to almost 10 this year that seems to suggest the positive news is mostly, if not entirely, already in the stock price.

     

    http://bit.ly/14dohaa

     

    The market cap of the company at a $8.4 price is about $687M.

     

    4. The stock does not pay a dividend and is not likely to do so.

     

    5. The next question is whether there is anything else in late stage trials that looks promising. I did not see anything yet after looking for a few minutes. The only pipeline drug listed by the company at its website is Zerenex. After searching, I could not find anything else. I might be willing to jump in now with a LOTTO purchase if there was something else in phase 2 that looked interesting.

     

    http://bit.ly/14dohGZ

     

    6. I noted looking at the historical press releases that Keryx managed to sell 8,234,000 shares at $8.49 per share, plus up to an additional 1,235,100 shares in the over allotment option earlier this year which is a positive.

     

    http://bit.ly/14dohqu;highlight=

     

    SEC Filed Underwriting Agreement:
    http://1.usa.gov/14dohH2

     

    Overall, the company received net proceeds of $74.8M in the 2013 first quarter from that offering plus an additional $7M milestone payment from its Japanese partner.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/14dohH4

     

    7. J P Morgan was the lead underwriter. What firm just issued a report on Zerenex with an overweight rating and a $13 price target? That was JPM. So, some skepticism is warranted. I read the AP story on that JPM report which stated that the analyst "believes" that the drug has patent protection until 2024. So I now have another question? Are there patent issues that may allow generic companies to challenge exclusivity?

     

    So, after about 20 minutes of research, which is all that I spent, I classified the stock as a potential LT purchase and put the stock on my monitor list for Lottery Tickets with about 200 other names. Maybe with a significant price drop, I may take another look and buy no more than 30 shares.
    17 Jul 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wednesday, July 17, 1:23 PM ET
    "If we were to tighten policy, the economy would tank," says Ben Bernanke wrapping up day one of his Humphrey Hawkins testimony (tomorrow, the Senate). John Hilsenrath notes the striking change from the June FOMC policy statement - which said downside risks had diminished - to today's testimony which clearly highlighted the downside. "A dovish tilt towards easier money." Hilsenrath and FTAlphaville also both note another dovish tilt, the re-emergence of the "D" word - deflation. "

     

    Ok , looking for some interpretations on this? Does the markets like it? Seems they don't know how to take it ...

     

    Does this tone make the BDC'S A BETTER or WORSE choice if we have deflation? I have no clue so looking for guidance. Also if we do have deflation how does that effect stocks?
    17 Jul 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Deflation is bad for any business dependent upon operating results. Deflation is only good for cash and bond holders, provided they are paid.
    17 Jul 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TACK

     

    What's your take on the conversation this morning? Do you think we have better entry points? I see the BDC'S seemed to like what they heard.

     

    I did not notice if interest rates dropped at all either.
    17 Jul 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    On longer term - SA contributor Tim McAlenan points out consumer products tends to do well with good dividends over time.

     

    Any you'd think most positively of or avoid?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    ---------

     

    Shorter term, well that's different. Fed was dovish yet markets are parallel today. Not the flying high from the last sequence of Fed dovish media interviews.

     

    Signs that market isn't moving according to tapering announcements any more? Counted them in already?

     

    Or signs that it's overbought so the happy feet upward, are balanced against?
    17 Jul 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    c:

     

    Virtually every company listed in that article qualifies for "buy it and forget it" for those who wish neither undue risk nor active management of their portfolios. Most of them have been mentioned at one time or another in IT's blog conversations.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    The consumer sector is always a good area for long term div. growth.
    The stocks that he mentions are solid companies that have been around forever and have paid div. for many years. You will find many of those names as "core" holdings in a lot of diversified portfolios.

     

    As with the overall market , I would like to see them trade a bit lower to get better entry points.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @Tack

     

    Thanks.

     

    Yours: "Most of them have been mentioned at one time or another in IT's blog "

     

    Definitely. That's why I was asking if out of the collection, there's any that would stand out on the ends....

     

    I need to start digging into forming my core, & this is one area that'd make sense to me to include.

     

    Also the sector has lots of solid stocks in it, but wondered if once mentioned as a collection / sector, there was opinion. Some article commenters point out that this was a selection from the sector & the sector as a whole may not be an easy automatic buy area. So kind of wondering what experience over the years looking at the sector produces from folks...

     

    For instance, I was thinking, I noticed your holdings don't seem to include this sector much (unless I misunderstood it). So maybe it's not what you'd use for safe & good returns as the -best- options?

     

    Also - thanks for posting on your positions. I'm still absorbing before asking any questions on it -- want to make sure I understand what you have posted first.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    I have a very specialized portfolio, rather unbalanced from a sector point of view. I have good balance between types of securities: common, preferred, debt, ETF's, but I am rather a specialist when it comes to high-yield value investments, most of which reside in the financial or realty area. As such, my portfolio would not be a good model for someone without my years of doing this or for an unmanaged portfolio.

     

    I don't invest in consumer non-cyclicals, simply because they don't meet my yield hurdles. But, for a longer-term investor, who wishes to have a retirement portfolio sit in an unmanaged IRA, they are excellent.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    What would be your take on them for $ growth? I have 15 years, and even then will be able to get some income. So my goal is growing my total assets. I don't care if it's by price increase or dividends, nor do I mind dips & volatility. How well would this sector fit in that plan?

     

    Definitely they are solid. My impression is what Fear said - they tend to be very much core holdings. So just checking when it's a growth goal, how well they fit in. I don't need to hold for dividends in retirement now - when I'm close to retirement -then- I'll move to that kind of plan.

     

    I did gather than your portfolio was getting over 9% because of the specialized management you bring to it --- financial sector is over my head. I haven't done REITs but I do have strong family experience in real estate in several different market areas, so maybe -- but they aren't RE, they're R.E. mixed with financials.
    17 Jul 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    I'm not sure what your first paragraph refers to. Do you mean consumer stocks or my portfolio?

     

    The consumer issues are excellent core holdings. My issues are diverse in nature, so hard to make a general recommendation. I think, however, that a good mix a generous-yielding preferred shares can't hurt. BDC's do well over extended periods, but they are volatile. REITs volatile, too, even those not only in mortgage paper.

     

    My performance is due more to management than merely sitting on particular names. My general theme, however, is to buy depressed issues at high yields, then roll out of them as they recover and yields drop. Then, find a new target. Repeat.
    17 Jul 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    tack:

     

    The "them" in first paragraph referred to consumables.... how well that sector fits in for my goals.... Knowing that should make my whole comment make more sense :).

     

    So you're revealing another level of complexity to the holdings you have, by pointing out it's your management process that's working.... Definitely not something I or most posters here will be duplicating.

     

    So when you use 9% return to counter a 20-30% dip from a crash in your explanation of your strategy... it sounds like for a less active investor they'd be getting more like 3-4%? (I'm not sure on % typical for a diversified portfolio of yielding stocks.) So maybe growth say in small/mid caps has more appeal & value to their portfolio. (Not to switch to small/mid totally, just not to stick totally with yielding stocks either?). This was one of my earlier questions a few days ago... that I'm trying to work out in order to plan my overall portfolio strategy.
    17 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    You're mixing a few apples and oranges.

     

    My yield averages 8.5 -10%, on average. But, that's just the yield. My overall annual returns, including yield and capital gains from price appreciations has averaged about 18.5% over the last fifteen years.

     

    The secret to elevating the returns comes from good stock selection, i.e., recognizing undervalued issues, and from rolling out of gainers and into new undervalued plays, as they arise. If one selected a basket of the stuff I buy and just sat on it, I think they'd do reasonably well, over time, but I have no idea what that exact percentage return would be.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    Apples & oranges? I've been talking about two different things. 1. Returns (price of the stock goes up) 2. Yields (thru dividends). So yes I'm talking about apples & oranges. I've been trying to assess how important each is to portfolio growth.

     

    To try to explain my question(s):
    For years I've learned that small/mid cap returns exceed large cap but with more volatility. So for someone with a long horizon they "should theoretically" be more in small/mid & not solely in large caps.

     

    Now "all of a sudden" (at least to me) I'm hearing from every direction about dividend DGI is the best way to invest (because of compounding & it saves you when the market is more flat like it's been for last decade). HOWEVER, my concern is DGI is often heavily weighted to large caps, not small/mid with their better growth.

     

    So my questions that have popped into my head are:
    1) Is there research, that's shown DGI is better than the sector weighting to small/mid for growth? Or DGI is better than some other strategy (that I'm not thinking of) since it's so favored right now.
    2) Is it recent research, since I'm hearing about this now, & not years ago when I took investment classes.

     

    Then specific to what you've posted over time...
    You've explained that with 9+% yield, if you're stocks take a 20-30% hit, it doesn't take long to make up for that. So your approach for high dividend works well. I've realized from your portfolio posting & comments, that I'm not going to get that 9% (I don't have the right expertise.) So I suspect if I invest in good dividend payers, I'll get 3-4%? So when evaluating DGI vs. other strategies, the arguments for DGI work well with the 9+%. My thought, question, pondering is whether the same argument for DGI works as well for someone getting more like 3-4% instead of 9+%. While I can do calculations & think it out for myself.... IF there's been research by others & back testing of the DGI approachs compared to others.... I'd like to be aware of the research. It's always better than just doing it on my own.

     

    So I've expanded my question. That's what I've been trying to figure out.

     

    This has gotten long, but meanwhile you say:

     

    "The secret to elevating the returns comes from good stock selection, i.e., recognizing undervalued issues, and from rolling out of gainers and into new undervalued plays, as they arise."

     

    I think in there you've answered the underlying question I've been asking in this conversation, from your perspective & your experience. So thank you. Basically that looking for undervalued while still solid, is the best strategy.

     

    If you have any info or thoughts to add to my question(s)... I'm all ears for that too.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    "1) Is there research, that's shown DGI is better than the sector weighting to small/mid for growth? Or DGI is better than some other strategy (that I'm not thinking of) since it's so favored right now."

     

    Over the longer term, small caps outperform large caps. The price one pays for that outperformance is more volatility and the need for more diversification, at least to the extent of not having too much in any one stock

     

    "2) Is it recent research, since I'm hearing about this now, & not years ago when I took investment classes."

     

    I don't know what you were taught or when, but it's relatively well known that small caps outperform, but that they're "riskier." That's why one needs more positions, so occasional blow-ups don't do you in.

     

    Regarding my returns, I still don't think you fully expressed it accurately. It's the yield, alone, that's 9%. Adding capital gains, the overall returns climb to double that. So, yes, you will get at least 9% returns, not 3-4%, if you assemble a decent, diversified yield portfolio and don't lose principal; it's just questionable whether you can reap the capital gains at appropriate times and redeploy, so you can attain higher returns.
    18 Jul 2013, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    I'm asking for research on whether DGI strategy beats small/mid cap. I'm not asking, but am stating that I've known for a long time that small/mid beats large cap but with more volatility. Do you know about any research on DGI vs. using small/mid cap growth?

     

    I'm understanding your situation & returns. I'm asking about how to apply it to me, since I will not be able to duplicate it (because of lack of expertise in financials). Therefore I will be using stocks who's dividend yields are less than the 9% of yours. I'm asking to take your explanations that were based on your portfolio... and change & adjust them for what would be realistic for me. So, with results with lower numbers in both yields and growth (cap gains), how does that effect the arguments for DGI investing that you've presented previously? That's the question I was asking in that paragraph.

     

    You may have answered it here:

     

    "So, yes, you will get at least 9% returns, not 3-4%, if you assemble a decent, diversified yield portfolio "

     

    So you are saying that with using my expertise (not with using yours in financials), a decent yield portfolio gives around 9% returns (div yields, not selling for cap gains)? I would expect a decent solid portfolio to give around 3-4% yield (not with cap gains, just in div yield).

     

    " it's just questionable whether you can reap the capital gains at appropriate times and redeploy, so you can attain higher returns. "

     

    I will be assuming not, for my initial evaluation of what strategy I aim for.

     

    Thanks for your inputs!
    18 Jul 2013, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FOLKS, No one can question CURLS since she WON the All Star Challenge. She showed all of us up being closest to total runs scored.

     

    I will alert Doug and your Tungsten Gold of 100 ounces will be made and sent to you via Jon Corzine. Just pray he doesn't co mingle it!!
    18 Jul 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    Seriously I won? Yippee! But what sport was it? And when was the game? And who played? It's not fair, if you don't tell me :-).
    18 Jul 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It was wrestling, TACK and FEAR were the main event. It happened on Tack's yacht and the Cabana girls were the judges .

     

    (Baseball, Tuesday night, All Star game, Three runs total.)

     

    Gotta get back to my front row seat, Ben talks in a two hours. I hear he is hydrating up right now as he heard about my comment of him drinking water. Word has it he is nervous and just had a doctor give him a sedative.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    I don't know about research for results of small cap vs. DGI, as it's not a topic I have researched. I guess you'll have to start "Googling."

     

    "So you are saying that with using my expertise (not with using yours in financials), a decent yield portfolio gives around 9% returns (div yields, not selling for cap gains)? I would expect a decent solid portfolio to give around 3-4% yield (not with cap gains, just in div yield)."

     

    I am saying that I believe that with some due-diligence effort one can assemble a higher-yield portfolio, consisting of bonds, preferred shares, some BDC's, some REITs, and assorted other issues that meet some minimum yield hurdle and achieve results that will, over time, outperform a lower-yield portfolio. For someone starting out on this assignment, I might suggest placing a third or a half of their portfolio in that mode and the other half in the DGI or other "safe" conventional mode, then compare the results over a few years.

     

    There's really no substitute for hands-on experience, learning what works and what doesn't, and what risk one can tolerate. Other than self education, the only alternative is to give one's money to someone else, who has the requisite experience. Personally, I don't know a money manager, who does exactly what I do, and, unfortunately, I am not willing to manage others' money, although I've been asked several times. I just don't want the responsibility for other people's results or to deal with their reactions if they're not happy. And, somebody will always be unhappy.

     

    For someone, who wished to commence such an effort, I would recommend using a few stock screeners (e.g., Yahoo Finance, others) to screen for some minimum yield level, for starters. Then, further due diligence on identified issues is required, of course.

     

    For information on exchange-traded debt, convertibles, and all preferred shares, the best site on the web is http://bit.ly/qWc98b.

     

    For detailed information and historical performance data on closed-end funds (CEF's) I recommend http://bit.ly/o4ngfR.

     

    Happy hunting!
    18 Jul 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Curls: I own two closed end funds that invest in small and micro caps that have good long term track records.

     

    RMT and RVT

     

    The sponsor for both funds is the Royce fund group that specializes in the small stocks.

     

    For reasons unconnected with performance, I may sell my shares in RVT when and if a recently proposed shareholder resolution passes for reasons which will be discussed in next Saturday's post.

     

    While their long term records are good, the performance in 2008-March 2009 highlights the risks too. RMT declined over 46% in net asset value and market price during 2008. Another risk for CEFs is that the market price can decline much faster than the net asset value or even fall when the net asset value gains which was the case for RMT in 2007. (click performance tab at CEFConnect)

     

    Both funds will generally sell at greater than 10% discounts to net asset value and both pay a managed quarterly dividend distribution.
    RMT's discount as of yesterday's close was -11.79%.

     

    TACK just gave you a site to CEFConnect which is a good place to start:

     

    LINK TO RMT Page:
    http://bit.ly/112i6D1

     

    Notwithstanding the scares, RMT is up over 9% annualized over the past 10 years and over 10% since inception in 1993, based on both market values and net asset values per share.

     

    Performance numbers are also available at the firm's website:
    http://bit.ly/112i6D3
    This statement is found at that site: "Outperformed Russell 2000 for the 1 year, 10 year, 15 year and since inception (12/14/1993) periods as of 6/30/2013"

     

    For the most part, I will pick my own small cap and micro cap names but I have owned those two stock CEFs for a long time.

     

    I also own a T. Rowe Price Small Cap fund in a trust that I manage which has a better 1, 3, 5, and 10 year record:
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock OTCFX

     

    http://bit.ly/112i8KX
    18 Jul 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack, Southern

     

    Thank you!

     

    So the way I'm going to synthesize this (unless it's totally incorrect) is that another strategy of investing I can do is "higher-yield portfolio" (consisting of such things as bonds, preferred shares, BDC's, REITs, etc.), which tend to higher yields but with increased volatility. Along with DGI & Small/mid growth, it's another strategy. One that's largely done well for both of you where you've used it.

     

    Beyond that into the details - wow, there's a lot of great stuff & links. So lots for me to work with. So thank you!!!

     

    Tack - I thought you were previously saying that your approach IS DGI, but with a twist of buying into & out of undervalued. This (i.e. your approach) is a little different though.
    18 Jul 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Curls: Small cap value stocks will outperform small cap growth over time. I would not limit myself to a small or micro cap "growth" fund.

     

    I found this article for your perusal that notes that small cap value stocks have a 23 year annualized return of 10.34% vs. 7.68% for small cap growth. For a $10,000 investment, the difference over that period was $41,384:

     

    http://bit.ly/18qMVH2

     

    You will see that difference in results when examining long term returns for the better small cap funds.

     

    The problem with the growth approach is what you have to pay for that growth which frequently works out to be way too much. "Growth" companies have an unfortunate habit of slowing down and even producing negative earnings growth rates (or worse, losses) which will cause a bad result when paying 20 or 30 times earnings.

     

    The small and micro cap area has been a lot of fun for me and rewarding too. A premium is placed on good research and the field is not crowded with a lot of knowledgeable investors who are focusing more attention on the larger and better known companies.

     

    I would also recommend avoiding index funds in the small and micro cap area. Good managers routinely beat those indexes over virtually any time period. The indexes are just full of trash. You can't put together an index of 600 to 2000 small companies and avoid lots of garbage.

     

    This link may work to a list compiled by Morningstar of small cap value stocks mutual funds:

     

    http://bit.ly/18qMUmp

     

    I gave you above some blended small and micro cap funds with good long term records.

     

    One little known fund with a good record in small cap value is Walthausen Small Cap Value (WSCVX):

     

    http://bit.ly/18qMUms

     

    The five year annualized return for that one is 19.29% which will be hard to repeat.

     

    When the market tanks these type of investments will likely go down more than the S & P 500 or close to the same decline. They will in no sense or way be refuges from periods of stock market carnage, death and destruction.
    18 Jul 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Scooter-Pop
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    Tennessee'n,

     

    Impact of Detroit on your investing? How many Democrat's Ruled Detroit out of the last 50 years?

     

    Thanks for the SWZ lead!
    18 Jul 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SCOOTER

     

    Welcome to our forum. I see you have been posting for a while so I am looking forward to you contributing some of your thoughts in the future.
    18 Jul 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Scooter-Pop
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    Wow a Welcome; you from Texas? I have learned to follow a few and Lawyer Southgent1951 "Tenneessee'n" is one I TRY to follow.

     

    Look forward to the Volatility!
    18 Jul 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Scooter: I actually do better with my individual Swiss stock picks (Novartis, Roche, Nestle, Zurich) but the SWZ is doing fine too.

     

    CEFConnect Page for SWZ:
    http://bit.ly/12LuHIP

     

    10 Year Annualized Return on Price =10.32%

     

    There are competent and incompetent political leaders from both parties. Based on a few decades of observation, there does not appear to be any shortage of less than optimal politicians.

     

    Nashville has been managed by Democrats forever and that city is booming.

     

    NYT Articles:
    Nashville’s Latest Big Hit Could Be the City Itself
    http://nyti.ms/1avuxKq

     

    Detroit's BK will have no impact on anything that I am doing. I might look tonight to see whether the few municipal bond CEFs, which I own, have any Detroit bonds. I doubt it.
    18 Jul 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SCOOTER

     

    No I am from NY, and we tend to like politeness in this forum. So if you are looking for volatility in this forum please keep it courtious.

     

    Thanks.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ SG

     

    Sorry about the wording clarity. By small cap growth, I meant growth in price rather than growth in money through the dividends.

     

    Though your info on value vs. growth is excellent to look over.

     

    For many years, growth was the hot thing, and did better. Nowadays it's value. I didn't know that value did better over the bigger time picture.

     

    "Good managers routinely beat those indexes over virtually any time period."

     

    I was wondering that. Thinking that while large cap index makes sense, that for small cap, there HAS to be value-add for good picking. I've seen very little on it in media sources & mags.

     

    "They will in no sense or way be refuges from periods of stock market carnage, death and destruction."

     

    Which is why you diversify into large caps too... in case you absolutely need to sell during that time.... :)
    18 Jul 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Scooter-Pop
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Dehorned then!
    18 Jul 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Curls: Value will beat growth investing over long periods of time, though each will have their day in the sun. It is really no contest between the two long term.

     

    I think in terms of total return which includes both capital appreciation and the dividend. I would think along those lines for a BDC, equity REIT or a garden variety common stock position such as KO or GIS.

     

    For common stocks, my natural inclination is to tilt decidedly toward buying growth at reasonable prices, a form of value investing, and to limit myself primarily to stocks that increase their payouts over time. I am aiming for both capital appreciation and dividend growth.

     

    Capital appreciation is made far more likely by buying growth at a reasonable price.

     

    Fidelity has a table that shows the performance by year of various growth and value indexes between 1980 through 2010. Ten thousand invested in the small cap value index in 1980 would be worth $601,860, beating the small cap growth index at $188,107.

     

    Mid cap value and large cap value handily beat their growth counterparts.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bti2lo

     

    Several recently published studies found that low volatility/low beta stocks outperform high volatility stocks over time. That is something that I would anticipate since the low volatility names would frequently be those that would fall into the value category.

     

    http://bit.ly/16QDgZi

     

    Another recent study titled "Low Risk Stocks Outperform within All Observable Markets of the World" can be downloaded free at

     

    http://bit.ly/10UlUTl
    18 Jul 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    curls:

     

    No, I have never been a DGI investor and never so stated. You must have me confused with another. I am a resolute "deep-value, high-yield" investor.
    18 Jul 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    tack:

     

    I didn't know "deep-value, high-yield" investor concept existed. So when you talked quite a bit about the benefits of dividends (yield), I assumed you were a DGI investor (Dividend Growth investor). That's why I was asking questions about DGI. Now I know.
    18 Jul 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT, Curls

     

    Tend to agree, about the market reaction so far. I mentioned being cautious here, market does appear to be tired, overbought . Rather be cautious now. Just a "feeling" , in the short term --of course the market has fooled me before .

     

    Its early, but so far the earnings seem ok, but I note not too much reaction to those earnings as a lot of this is "priced in " .
    17 Jul 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ Fear

     

    Yep, as I looked, I thought of your words yesterday. Made more sense of today's reaction.

     

    Short-term really is tricky, isn't it? It always makes sense afterwards though, lol.

     

    Hey, even CNBC acknowledges it's trading in a tight range just now. Since I started investigating, my mom will hear the news & ask me about the great up day on wall street, while I'm trying to figure out how the media got THAT out of that day's movement.

     

    ....different today, small caps aren't leading upward. Maybe that overbought / tired is showing...
    17 Jul 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    This article from Joseph Stuber that you posted to me does have a lot of food for thought on how the QE is playing out, including in the comments.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    (Though, to I tend to not agree with JS's conspiracy theory around every corner approach ... and his Bernanke-era perennial bear viewpoint.)
    17 Jul 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    CNBC reported that the inflows to mutual funds and ETFs is at historic levels

     

    http://cnb.cx/18o6mjK

     

    I think this market continues to go up, so if there is a dip take advantage. (KO) Coke reported earnings, which were a little disappointing. Stock went down for one day, already almost back up to where it was. I've been on a buying spree, initiating positions in many quality stocks (KO) (PG) (GIS) (JNJ) (CL) (CLX) (CSX) (NOC) (KFT) (DE). Adding to (MO) (IBM) (MCD) (CMI) (BGS). Also bought 2 stocks that don't exactly fit the DGI model, but they triple every 10 years....(CHD) and (PBH). On my buy list (HSY) Hershey. I've read that Hershey's stock mirrors the DOW....check it out, the 10 year chart is like a mirror of the DOW or SPY.

     

    I'm in it for the long haul, 20 years or more. My goal is to build up the dividend stocks in my portfolios enough that we can live on just the dividends in retirement. Already bought positions in (DUK) (ED) (MAIN) (PTY) (ARI) (ARCP) (DLR) (MCK) (SBUX) (AIG) (F) (BP) (BAC) (JPM) (WFC) (KKD) (TROW) (HON) (LVS) (YHOO) (KMP) and (CLMT). Not sure all of these last ones are "keepers."

     

    I still have a lot of mutual funds to get out of, so for the next few months I will be continuing to rotate out of them and into stocks. Chowder just published an article about buying quality stocks. If you wait for these stocks to become "cheap" you will never buy them. Timing the market is impossible, taking advantage of dips is great but while you have been waiting, this market just keeps going up.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    hard to argue with your comments on "timing the market" if you are in it for LT.
    And the market has frustrated most that have been waiting for that "dip"

     

    I don't necessarily like the "fastest rate of inflows this year" fact. Being somewhat of a contrarian , that sends up a caution flag for me , but that's just me..

     

    One thing I found comical and maybe another contrarian point. Dennis Gartman mentions in the article that he sees further gains after the latest correction. Earlier this year right as the market was about to really take off he stated on CNBC that he went to "all cash". LOL..

     

    I'm holding out for that "dip "to add or initiate more exposure.

     

    We shall see. Best of luck 
    17 Jul 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    F&G I waited most of 2012 for that 10% correction we were going to get. Finally started to make things happen last Jan. If you have a long term horizon then buying quality stocks is not a problem. However if you have short term horizon, I would question why put money in at all....but that's how I am. Looking over all my positions, I find there are plenty of stocks I left out from my list above....and I'm still shy of 50. There are a few that I will eventually get out of, unless they continue to go up.

     

    Looking at how the mutual funds have done, I've already beat them in the last 6 months. That's the trouble with most mutual funds, you would be much better off looking at what their top holdings are, then if those are quality stocks, just buy them yourself. I've seen Chowder and Bob Wells recommends that to people, when they are trying to see if an ETF/ mutual fund will perform better than the individual stock picks, and then use back testing.

     

    Thank goodness my portfolios did make money since 2009/2010, but had I bought all these stocks starting back then, I'd be at least 30% ahead (if not more). Yes I keep backtesting to torture myself lol. Especially with all the bonds I bought, it's just sad to look at how much $ was lost to being in those individual bonds, even with a better than 6% interest rate.

     

    If there is a 10% or better correction coming, I'll be ready as I'm still selling out of mutual funds.

     

    We are also looking for a small business to buy, with the idea of my son running it. He has chosen to not go to college, instead he's taking a few courses at a community college and wants to run a small business. Funny thing is, I've tried to talk to 2 commercial realtors about the businesses they have listed....they don't even call me back. I'm a residential realtor and cannot even begin to comprehend this. Is it because I'm a woman?? I always call people back, never left them hanging. Idiots, we are serious buyers.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Blue sky,

     

    You seem to have a good handle on your situation ,especially having cash available if in fact we get some type of correction.

     

    My specific case is a bit different in the fact that I have been fortunate to have assembled a decent div growth portfolio as a core of my investments over the years , So while I agree with buying quality for LT growth is a great plan. When I decide to add or initiate anything new , i like to be very specific about entry points. So I'm willing to wait if I have to . I'll also use some call writing in this type of market to enhance income.

     

    You have assembled some nice holdings in your list and You have a plan , Its a good situation to be in..

     

    Best of luck...

     

    17 Jul 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    IBM - maybe I'm completely dense here.

     

    I could swear earlier in the day, CNBC was babbling about their earnings coming out slightly low, & that the stock was down a little (which it was, about $2 which I thought really oddly light for an earnings miss).

     

    Now I'm seeing they reported earnings - after hours? So now it's up $5-7, because it beat estimates.

     

    So which one happened? And what resource can I use to EASILY see a stream of headlines for the day? I obviously can't keep CNBC or FOX or Bloom on to do it. (I get bored & tune them out.) Online, I either get too many alerts or not enough, & miss stuff. I've never been a water cooler type of person... and I can't seem to get a proper stream of water cooler business data going...
    17 Jul 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    The market currents on SA does a pretty good job with the earnings. Also, every morning Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by Wall Street Breakfast comes out about 6AM. At the bottom it will report all of the companies reporting before open and after close.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Jul 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    I have a long list of stocks on the home page of SA. Right next to that, all the articles that mention those stocks are listed. So I see which companies are announcing earnings, and when. I noticed IBM was announcing after the close today. There's already a couple of articles about it.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://bit.ly/15HOURa

     

    I've been buying IBM on the dips. 10 @ 190, 10 @ 193.30, 10 @ 195.30 since the end of June adding to the position I already had. Nice to see the stock up after hours!

     

    The many articles being published by authors here on SA is giving me a gold mine of ideas for stock purchases. I've learned to be a dividend growth investor, purchasing high quality stocks after reading these authors here on SA. Thank you to Chowder & Bob Wells for being great mentors, and there are others.

     

    That's worked out better than water cooler talk for me. And I enjoy the chat here on IT's blog too.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ BlueSky

     

    I read Chower on yours & Fear's suggestion. I was very impressed. I didn't get a change to dig into Wells yet.

     

    By "water cooler" don't think I mean gossip or the endless commentary & "recommendations" by media or investment gurus. I just mean how to find the storylines (events) so I can track what's changed a price realtime... and decide on it's meaning myself.
    ...every one of these satellite fed people who speak to the media, I miss the happening & am lost on what just happened in the market.

     

    Thanks for posting all those positions... gives lots of good starting places to look.
    17 Jul 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Curls, I don't miss working (in the late 80s & 90s I worked at a large insurance company) and haven't been that busy with real estate lately (my choice, I'm getting cranky in my 50's and prefer to only work with friends & family!).

     

    Thank God for SA and especially this blog....the people in my real life don't enjoy discussing investments at all. My husband's eyes glaze over....he just cannot pay attention to all my great stock insights lol!

     

    So that's why I think this place is even better than a water cooler. And I love chatting with you.

     

    p.s. just remembered how at that large insurance company we went thru 5 downsizings while I was there.....anyone hanging out at the water cooler would have been fired stat!
    17 Jul 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Curls, Chowder's great but Bob Wells is awesome, he puts his portfolio out there & explains how he chooses stocks. Really I have to thank them (and the other authors I'm following) for teaching me the wisdom to invest in quality companies.

     

    Check them both out, and I just put all my stocks on my profile bio. Most of them were found by reading Chowder, Bob Wells, and the commenters after their articles.

     

    I used up all my free trades already for July, dam*!
    17 Jul 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, BB I heard mentioned DEFLATION as a concern. Below is what I found out for those who aren't sure what it is..

     

    "Definition of 'Deflation'
    A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. Central banks attempt to stop severe deflation, along with severe inflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive drop in prices to a minimum.

     

    The decline in prices of assets, is often known as Asset Deflation.

     

    Investopedia explains 'Deflation'
    Declining prices, if they persist, generally create a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits, closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes, and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. To counter deflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can use monetary policy to increase the money supply and deliberately induce rising prices, causing inflation. Rising prices provide an essential lubricant for any sustained recovery because businesses increase profits and take some of the depressive pressures off wages and debtors of every kind.

     

    Deflationary periods can be both short or long, relatively speaking. Japan, for example, had a period of deflation lasting decades starting in the early 1990's. The Japanese government lowered interest rates to try and stimulate inflation, to no avail. Zero interest rate policy was ended in July of 2006."

     

    Ok, now I am confused. We have all this money printing going on yet the definition states that the FED can counter deflation by printing money??? HUH... We are printing money so what can they do if anything? Or do the "seasoned investors" have a different outlook on this.

     

    To me it would seem that the printing presses should be turned up a notch or what they have done so far worked for a few areas to save us from a possible depression but may not be able to save us from deflation?

     

    Thoughts>>>
    17 Jul 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    IT have you been to the grocery store lately??? Deflation my azz! The boxes are the same size, but they're half empty. We only eat oatmeal now - it's better for us anyway - can't really afford $6 for a box of cereal.

     

    If it wasn't for Costco, I probably would have stopped eating cheese & drinking milk. Over $5 for a gallon of milk at Shop Rite, but only $3.30 at Costco.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    You are pretty much on the money. As your quote stated Japan has not been able to get out of their deflation for almost 20 years of zero interest rates.

     

    All the bailouts and money printing have accomplished is keep the world from going into depression. The reason the US had to initially do it was because the US dollar is the world reserve currency and there were not enough dollars in the world after the banking system seized up in OCT 2008. Now most of the major economies are printing currency. The race to the bottom that you keep hearing about, which one will devalue the most????

     

    That is why you see me posting stats about WORLD inflation/deflation. If worldwide deflation can't be stopped it usually turns into worldwide depression in the long run. Read about the 1920s deflation of commodities prior to the 1929 bust.
    17 Jul 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    BSF,
    There is actually deflation of commodities that has been going on since September of 2012. I know it hasn't translated into lower prices at the grocery store for us. But, it has led to lower prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, copper and most industrial metals. The impetus was the slow down in the Chinese economy as they have decided to transition from and export based economy to a internal consumption economy like the US. With a population of 1.2 billion it makes sense as even raising the wages of most of the population to a service job wages would be an improvement for most of the population in China and India.

     

    Some articles:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Jul 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    It would be nice to see lower prices at the grocery store. I did see coffee prices go down a little. Even tho coffee beans are at historic lows, (SBUX) Starbux still raised the price of a cup of joe. Their explanation, operational costs are up. Okay...this is why I buy the beans at Costco & make my coffee at home. I have become a Starbux addict - love grinding the coffee beans fresh every morning for coffee. Costco is selling 2 types of beans now, French dark roast & Breakfast blend. I buy the French dark roast, then use a little less to get a more mild cup of java. Best part of my day, making coffee. ; D
    17 Jul 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Deflation is a rare phenomenon in the U.S. and most everywhere in the world other than Japan.

     

    Let's look at history for a moment before hyperventilating:

     

    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, 1913-
    http://bit.ly/WB2il7?

     

    Since 1955, the U.S. experienced a negative inflation rate in only one year, a -.4% rate in 2009.

     

    The two previous CPI declines occurred in 1955 at -.3%. and -1% in 1949 which occurred after increases of 8.5%, 14.4% and 7.7%.

     

    This is a link to a chart showing the long term CPI trend in the U.S. Looking at that chart, it is difficult to become concerned about deflation becoming a systemic problem.

     

    Chart: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items
    http://bit.ly/13QQArt

     

    The norm is inflation in the U.S. with significant bouts of problematic inflation.

     

    The Labor Department reported that the CPI rose 1.8% Y-O-Y before seasonal adjustment through June 2013.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/rFGzWe

     

    The Cleveland Fed performs a calculation of median CPI that has been running hotter than the BLS estimates. The Y-O-Y increase in median CPI through June was 2.1%:

     

    http://bit.ly/16MEscP

     

    The best inflation forecast by the market is embodied in pricing of TIPs. As of today's close, the market was forecasting an average annual CPI of 2.14% for the next ten years. That number has been rising slightly over the past two weeks.

     

    The current stock market rally is based in part on a benign market forecast of low, non-problematic inflation. A two per cent average rate of inflation is ideal for stocks. Problematic inflation was the cause of a nasty bear market in both stocks and bonds between 1966 to August 1982.

     

    As to Japan, there have been periods of deflation and inflation since 1989. Deflation has been the predominant trend since 2000 with brief periods of modest inflation while inflation was the norm between 1989-2000 with a brief period of deflation late in 1995.

     

    http://bit.ly/RhiI2L

     

    Inflation data for other countries can be found at TradingEconomics:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aRqonE

     

    Brazil, Russia and India would be just three examples where CPI falls only briefly below 4%.

     

    I mentioned some factoids in my last blog that are of interest at least to me on this subject. The tuition at Tulane was $2,200 for my first year and was $46,230 last year, rising almost 4 times faster than CPI. The university helpfully noted for prospective parents paying full freight that incidentals would cost another 16 grand or so. I may be mistaken, money must grow on trees.

     

    Health insurance and medical costs are two other items rising far faster than CPI. I noted in that post that Fidelity estimated that it would cost a couple retiring in 2012, both at 65, approximately $240,000 over their life expectancy to pay for health insurance and other medical costs, assuming no major changes in Medicare.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aRqonF

     

    I also noted a publication from the Kaiser Foundation, a reliable source on this issue, that contained a graph showing how much medical costs have risen in relation to wages just since 2000.

     

    Page 18:
    http://bit.ly/1aRqonK

     

    If you are 40 or 45, I would not be counting on deflation to bail you out. A reasonable estimate would be medical costs for a couple significantly in excess of $500,000.

     

    About a year ago, I received from Travelers a 100% increase in my homeowner's insurance premium. I have insured my house since 1982 with that company and never had a claim. I recently changed to Safeco which was cheaper.

     

    I can recall when gasoline was less than $.3 a gallon. I just filled my Saturn up with regular gas at over $3.6 a gallon- more proof of problematic deflation on the horizon?

     

    As a student of the Great Depression, Bernanke is worried about a repeat of what happened soon after FDR was elected for a second term. It helps to know something about history. The market had experienced one of the most robust rallies, possibly the biggest ever, starting in 1933 when the Fed launched QE and the Federal Government went into overdrive with fiscal stimulus. Yes, all of this stuff has been done before.

     

    Things seemed to on the mend so the FED tightened in 1937 and the government, concerned about budget deficits, cut back on spending. The market and economy went back into a funk. The market picked up some again after the Battle of Midway in 1942, after which the market correctly concluded that the U.S. would win the war against Japan.

     

    I noted that QE history from the Great Depression period in a blog written in March 2009 as one justification for increasing my stock allocation at the time.

     

    Bernanke knows that the government is reducing spending and has raised taxes. He is reluctant to make it a trifecta by ending QE and particularly ZIRP because of that history. The situation is nowhere close to being the same now and evidence is mounting that the FED's monetary policies may be retarding growth rather than fostering it.
    17 Jul 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Notrub for the above articles.

     

    I read this one awhile back, about the lack of relationship between the US GDP and the S&P.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Shows how important it is to invest in the stock market, where you can make enough money to have a good retirement and pass on some wealth to your family. Our economy is not that great, for most people. However, US major corporations can really reward you for holding their stocks over time. Just buy quality stocks and hold on to them, re-investing dividends.
    17 Jul 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5142) | Send Message
     
    Dozen eggs- $1.50
    Just have to drive up the road to a farm for them.
    Leave the money in the coffee can in the fridge by the barn. Honor system.
    Not kidding...a weasel took care of 25 hens and now we are back to the grocery store until the younger chicks produce larger eggs.
    The joys of living in rural western NY.

     

    My guess on the All-Star game is three runs. Pitching will be the factor. Rivera could win MVP too.

     

    Have a great evening.
    17 Jul 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    IT, stripped of fiscal/monetary policy influence Structural GDP reveals the economy would be running at a -3.2% pace and has been in a Structural Greater Depression since Nov/2006. The measures by Congress & FOMC cannot help all sectors and as such Deflation will be a risk 'til SGPD turns positive.

     

    SGDP outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
    17 Jul 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    SG,
    I understand everything you are saying. What I am saying is that commodities collapsed in the 1920s prior to the 1929 crash. This happened even though as your CPI numbers show GDP was running above 10%. I believe you would agree that agricultural prices and metal prices have been falling since September 2012. The only hold out so far is oil. Do dropping commodity prices exert deflationary or inflationary pressures on economies? The result is becoming obvious in the metal miners and processors. Read Eric Parnell's article I posted above about the effect of dropping ag prices.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/13PEnYF

     

    http://bit.ly/13PEqDy

     

    I am not saying the US is going into depression. 1.8% inflation is still inflation. All I am saying is that there are countries in the world right now other than the US, China and India that are experiencing deflation. I personally believe there has been a struggle going on between deflation and inflation since 2008. I don't have a clue which wins out in the long run???? Eventually, one or the other will and we won't have to guess about it any more.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    No:

     

    In the long run deflation never, ever wins. World population is constantly increasing, and world monetary supplies increase faster than the population-driven demand, so inflation is unavoidable. That's why gasoline was 19 cents in the '60's and $4, now. The same can be seem for the prices of virtually every staple on Earth.

     

    Deflation is always a temporary phenomenon, occurring only when people get scared, temporarily, and refrain from spending. It can never last because reality reasserts itself that people need food, shelter, clothing, automobiles, gasoline, etc., etc. It's an inexorably-growing process.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: I remember when corn was $2 to $2.5 a bushel, not that long ago. I actually have some experience selling corn and soybeans back in the mid-1990s.

     

    I see that corn was up today 1.7% after hitting a 2 1/2 year low of $5.425 for the September contract.

     

    WSJ Story
    http://bit.ly/1940xHq

     

    I checked the soybean cash price which was around $15.71. I remember $6 to $7.

     

    http://bit.ly/1940uLT

     

    What can I say? Commodity prices go up and down a lot.

     

    Oil is more important than corn and soybeans, and it is going up. Crude Oil, WTI Cushing, closed at 106.48, up from 89.87 a year ago. Natural gas, at the Henry Hub, was priced today at 3.68, up from 2.86 a year ago.

     

    Energy commodities have a higher weighting in the ETF GSG than in the ETN DJP. GSG has just moved above its 50 and 200 day SMA:

     

    http://yhoo.it/18Cf8Yw;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    I would not invest now based on the deflation hypothesis. I would not draw any long term conclusion about the current weakness in some commodities. I read Eric's article, and nothing that he said changes my thinking on this subject.

     

    I would be more concerned about inflation than deflation in our future. The FED very well may succeed in its objective of creating more inflation, and my concern is that the inflation forecasts embodied in the 10 year TIP pricing now will prove to be too low in the out years. That forecast hit a low last month at a 1.93% average rate over 10 years and was 1.99% on 6/28/13:

     

    10 Years Treasury Yields 6/28/13:
    TIP Yield: .53%
    Nominal Yield: 2.52%
    Break-Even= 1.99%

     

    As of 7/17/13, the average CPI forecast is 2.14% over the next ten years.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Notrub, my Indian relatives (from India) have never experienced deflation. The population is well over a billion...and growing.

     

    They do have a problem with inflation.

     

    China has been beating India for decades now. Hard to believe, but China even exports saris to India.

     

    If India can solve it's manufacturing issues, make electricity & water reliable then it can start beating China. At least India is a democracy.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Notrub, I see now after re-reading that you wrote India does not have deflation, sorry!

     

    I can see deflation occurring if the world's population suddenly decreased. Japan is a special case, where deflation is concerned. The government is tied to the economy, banks, etc. so part of their problem is that when real estate tanked in the 1980s, the banks didn't take the bad assets off their books. So they kept them, rather than allowing foreclosures. So many Japanese companies have done badly (not sure, but it seems like only the car companies have done well). Japan is a small island, with almost no natural resources. It's a closed society, not welcoming immigrants. People do not spend as freely as Americans. The population is in decline. These could be some of the reasons contributing to deflation in Japan.

     

    We have a very long way to go before we are any thing like Japan.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    BSF,
    I agree. The US does have an aging population, but is much more open to immigration than Japan. The US economy is much larger than Japan's. Though I believe China will over take the US economy in size by 2020 based purely on demographics. China has almost 4x the population of the US.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    BSF,
    The main difference between India and China is that China spent vast sums on infrastructure. India still has a ways to go in the infrastructure department. Once India catches up in that area it will be able to compete more effectively with China.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reply SG & Tack,
    I agree that fuel prices effect the end price of just about everything by the time it reaches the end consumer. So with the run up in oil prices that will eventually trickle through to make everything more expensive as long as it stays above $100 a barrel.

     

    And, you do have a point that a period of low inflation is still inflation and not deflation.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So then why is BB concerned about it ?

     

    Maybe we have bubbles waiting to pop like Lawrence Welk?

     

    Our condo just won an auction of a sheriffs sale for a unit we have. The winning bid was $100 bucks. We now have the deed, a lien on past common charges and legal fees, and the bank said they are 2 years away at least before starting foreclosure proceedings.

     

    We now will rent it out for those two years and then recoup the 17k we have as the bank already said they will pay off the liens if they foreclose. NO ONE showed up at the sheriffs sale, no one.!

     

    So we just found free money to offset some projects we want to do without raising the common charges..
    18 Jul 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Notrub I went to China in 2003, and I've been to India 5 times to visit family there, last time in 2005. China is awe inspiring. Shanghai felt like NYC, only better....beautiful city with futuristic buildings. Beijing was not as impressive. The Imperial City was huge with impressive carvings, but all the buildings in the palace complex were empty. Stripped - allegedly by Chiang Kai Shek who took all the treasure when he fled to Taiwan. If it wasn't for the terrible pollution, China would be a great place to live.

     

    In comparison....India is chaotic! Imagine driving down the road dodging cows, goats...and this is in a major city. Not on the fast roads, like our interstate highways, but on local county or state highways. Very scary at times, if you are in one of those little 3 wheel taxicabs, hanging on for dear life. You have million dollar mansions with little shanties next door. In newer neighborhoods, you have beautiful homes & streets, where they keep the clutter out. What I did see as improving in India were the beggers - hardly any. And for the first time, a police officer chased them off when I got surrounded at the airport. Is it my fair skin, blue eyes & "American" written all over me that attracts them? Yup. Times have gotten so much better in the last decade, that India was looking up. Now you have entire new sections in Hyderabad, with all the top tech companies and a new airport. New roads, etc. It's looking good. Only problem is, electricity & water are not reliable. All those new companies have to have their own generators. Bangalore has the worst traffic jams imaginable. So the problems in India grind on, with some improvement.

     

    Meanwhile, China is run like a sleek racing yacht in comparison.

     

    We have a friend that just started a business selling stainless steel tumblers, for sale on Amazon. He's Indian, but found it impossible to manufacture the cups in India. So he's sourcing them from....China. Sadly, that just about sums it up.

     

    However, any day I would prefer India to China. Democracy over communism.....no contest.
    18 Jul 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    Great insight into those two "worlds" - thanks !
    18 Jul 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    The running theme so far for all but banks has been beat on revenues, miss on sales. It has been a mixed bag on earnings.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    you can go to CNBC.com to see what companies announced earnings, it's very nice to see how many were ahead compared to how many missed.

     

    http://cnb.cx/15HVmYq

     

    So far, looks like most companies are beating earnings estimates. CNBC is saying that the Delivering Alpha conference (started today) is influencing the market, to the upside. Not sure if that will last past Friday! August is always a tricky month, as is Oct/Nov. So I'm looking for some more dips in the market to take advantage of.
    17 Jul 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • kvatchik
    , contributor
    Comments (499) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/14frxSr

     

    "You may have heard about William Kaye’s assertion that Western central bank gold is being recast for purchase in Asia. The recent statements of the Fund Manager on King World News are making quite a circuit. However, when asked about it in order to investigate the matter, Mr. Kaye had to say a few things to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings."
    17 Jul 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    IBM Earnings:

     

    I wanted to just add some caveats about IBM to the discussion.

     

    I do not own shares. I did discuss the possibility of buying shares back in May 2010 when the price was $125.26. I was discussing the issue of multiple compression for large cap stocks occurring after the blow off phase of a long term secular bull market, and this point is relevant to an earlier comment:

     

    "IBM would be another example. In 1999, IBM reached $139 per share with an E.P.S. that year of $3.72. Even after the recession, the stock hit $126 in 2002 when earnings fell to $3.95 from $4.35 in the previous year. Since that down year, IBM has reported year-over-year earnings increases reaching an E.P.S. of $10 in 2009 and the consensus estimation is for $11.27 this year. Yet, the price of the shares closed last Friday at $125.26. When IBM was selling at $125 in 2002, the P/E was over 31 and now it is at 11.11 times 2010 earnings and slightly less than 10 times estimated 2011 earnings. A 15 multiple on 2011 estimates would give me a $184 price target."

     

    http://bit.ly/UowheR

     

    IBM has been raising its dividend, but it has also slashed its dividend rate in the past. I do know that IBM slashed its dividend from $1.21 per share to $.54 per share in the first quarter of 1993 and fired it then existing CEO.

     

    http://bit.ly/13PCbAi

     

    The old $1.21 quarterly rate was kept in place between June 1989 to the end of 1992 and was preceded by a $1.1 quarterly rate in existence for 19 quarters. IBM was struggling in the 1980s and early 1990s. And may struggle again.

     

    Unfortunately, IBM's website does not adjust its historical dividend rates for stock splits. How hard would that be?

     

    Adjusting for two 2 for 1 stock splits, the $1.21 rate would be equivalent to $.3025 and the $1.1 quarterly rate would equal $.275. So in effect, IBM has raised its quarterly rate from about $.275 per share from September 1984 to $.95 per share for the June 2013 quarter. Sometimes I have to use fingers to count that high but I believe that is almost 29 years.

     

    I am not impressed by that history, which includes one major dividend slash, as a dividend growth investor.

     

    IBM Website Dividend History

     

    http://ibm.co/13PCefk

     

    The company has had two 2 for 1 splits since 1980.

     

    At the closing price today, and the current quarterly dividend rate of $.95 per share, the current yield would be about 1.95%. The rate was raised to $.50 per share in the 2008 second quarter from $.4.

     

    Another issue with IBM is revenue growth. Eventually, a company can only fire so many people (note the "second-quarter $1 billion workforce rebalancing charge") and buy back so much stock to generate earnings growth. The way to generate earnings growth is by increasing margins and revenues.

     

    For the last quarter, IBM reported a revenue decline of 3.3% to $24.92B, versus the expectation according to Reuters of $25.4B. This was the fifth straight quarter of declining revenue.

     

    SEC Filed News Release
    http://1.usa.gov/13PCbAm

     

    For the six months, revenues decreased 4.2% compared to the first six months in 2012. GAAP Net income declined by 9.9%.

     

    Technology companies always want investors to focus on non-GAAP numbers even though those numbers include recurring type expenses such as "workforce rebalancing". As noted in a WSJ article, IBM is a serial cost cutter and acquirer so why exclude those expenses:

     

    http://bit.ly/13PCefl

     

    In the last Annual Report, revenues were shown to have declined 2.3% from 2011 to 2012:

     

    Page 19:
    http://1.usa.gov/13PCbAq

     

    The company bought back $3.6 Billion in stock and paid dividends of $1. Free cash flow for the quarter was '$2.7B, excluding Global Financing Receivables, down approximately $1 billion year over year." How long can this continue? The buybacks are adding to E.P.S.

     

    I am not saying that IBM is a bad stock. The company may be able to achieve its $20 E.P.S. goal for 2015. So there is a good argument for valuation but the market is not overly impressed given the price hovering at such a low multiple to forward 2014 estimates.

     

    I am saying that IBM does not give me the same cozy feeling as my typical dividend growth stock, something like a General Mills that has not cut the dividend in 114 years and has doubled the rate since the 2007 first quarter and there were a lot of issues over the past few years in the world.

     

    GIS
    http://bit.ly/TTlbQB

     

    I would not put IBM in the DGI category even though the dividend has been raised over the past decade or so. I look at results over longer periods and the rate of earnings/revenue growth on a GAAP basis accomplished preferably without a lot of financial engineering such as massive buybacks that far exceeds FCF generation.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    I like IBM. In July 1993, IBM was $10.50. Today after hours it was almost $200 and hit a high of $215 a few weeks ago. I've been back testing all the stocks that interest me, and although IBM only pays a 2% dividend it's a great company, held long term.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Yes, IBM was at $10.5 in July 1993 after closing at $40.63 in April 1987. That stretch of time was rough for IBM, just like the current time is rough for HP.

     

    Another way to play dividend growth in the tech sector is through the ETF TDIV, which I own:

     

    Sponsor's website:
    http://bit.ly/15ISFWF

     

    The IBM price hit $125 in April 2000 and $58 in July 2002, then $118 or so in 2007 before sinking again to $83.48 on March 9, 2009.

     

    Good and even better stocks will become cheaper during recessions, corrections (one 19.39% correction in the S & P 500 occurred as recently as May to August 8, 2011) and catastrophic stock market declines of greater than 45% which have happened three times since I started to invest. Some stocks like Pepsico will not hit the fire sale price like IBM did in 1993 or GE in 2009, but you could have bought PEP at less than $50 and KO at a split adjusted price of $19 back in March 2009. The price of KO is now below where it was in 1998 on a split adjusted basis. That is not uncommon for extended periods of time when even a good stock hits an absurd price.

     

    I would classify IBM now as a large cap value stock, with disconcerting revenue growth and GAAP E.P.S. receiving a substantial helping hand through major stock buybacks exceeding FCF generation, rather than in the DGI category.

     

    As I noted above, a good case could be made for IBM as a value stock but I would ask myself why the market values the stock at slightly more than 10 times forward earnings:

     

    http://yhoo.it/wqBUh7

     

    17 Jul 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    On IBM -

     

    I bought on the employee stock plan... and that did very well for me. Those 2 for 1 splits certainly helped.

     

    Southern: "IBM does not give me the same cozy feeling as my typical dividend growth stock, something like a General Mills"

     

    I would agree that at this point, IBM is still a long term investment, but it's not cozy, nor is it an dividend stock. In fact, I think by pointing this out here, you've shown me where I've gotten some investing "assumptions" that weren't accurate. I thought of IBM as large cap solid, so I've been assuming dividends aren't worth the chase, since they weren't that much of impressive with IBM. (I'd never looked closely at stocks & their dividends elsewhere.) ....so now I'm a'learning on this.

     

    I was there during the 93 turmoil. The 70's issues at IBM were at least in part, macro economy related. The early '90s issues weren't. They were company specific as it started to plan transition from mainframe dominator of tech, to the new world order. Painful times.

     

    Meanwhile for my money, I kept meaning to sell because of warnings... but would look & hang on.... and it'd keep going up, dip during market crashes but I didn't pay attention. So right or wrong in it's pricing, I've enjoyed the ride! Currently all out though for first time since that first stock purchase (my very first stock of any kind).

     

    IBM has something many other tech companies don't, in their culture. They hire often the brightest (but please, no snickering of so how did she get there?). They can adopt to change at the ground level much better than anyplace else I've been. (It's like night & day, & they don't have to fire and then hire "the right skill set" that other companies need to.) It's the top level that has to get it right... and they tend to take a while.
    18 Jul 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    Oooh, I forgot, I was posting about IBM to ask a question.

     

    Today the ask-bid spread was .05-.08 a lot of the day. That's unusual. Everything else with good steady volume was .01 spread. In past I think (but never paid close attention), the IBM spread was .01.

     

    ...so what's to be made of that?
    18 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2519) | Send Message
     
    Curls: One frequently made incorrect assumption is that a good company will remain so.

     

    Just look at the components of the DJIA over history. Many of those "good" companies are no longer around or have long since been kicked out of the DJIA (e.g. U.S. Steel. Sears, Goodyear, etc)

     

    http://bit.ly/NrEK0p

     

    The underlying problem is that the world is not a static place.

     

    To survive and prosper long term, successful change is required.

     

    IBM was added to the DJIA in the early 1930s based on its then successful electrical tabulating machines and cards. Needless to say, we are not in a punch card tabulating world anymore. If IBM had not evolved into something totally different, it would be remembered today only by a few historians.

     

    The first successful transition occurred when Thomas Watson Jr. bet the company on the successful development of the mainframe computer. The first one was known as the IBM System/360 introduced in 1964. Improvements in that technology powered IBM for the next 20 years or so. If it had not broadened its business lines, IBM would have survived until now but it would be a far less valuable and a much smaller company than it is now.

     

    The third major transformation was into software and services.

     

    Another NY based company, Eastman Kodak, is an example of what happens when a "good" company does not change direction successfully.

     

    In 30 years or so, there will be many new components of the DJIA and several companies will have been given the boot and will start that long road to collapse, absorption by a more successful company or irrelevance.

     

    IBM was kicked ouf of the DJIA in 1939 and replaced by AT & T, even though IBM's tabulating business had many more successful years ahead of it. Just look at the companies that the DJIA kept in 1939, many of which are no longer around at all or in BK now (i.e. Eastman Kodak)

     

    IBM was not restored to the DJIA until 1979. The keepers of that index did not recognize for a long time the successful 1964 transformation. IBM's stock increased about 22,000% by the time it was added back to the DJIA.

     

    http://bloom.bg/16O6VfZ

     

    However, by 1979, IBM was within a few years of stagnation that required another major successful transformation.
    19 Jul 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5142) | Send Message
     
    This just in...
    Former Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Director, Rajat Gupta was ordered to pay a $13.9M civil penalty for passing inside information to Galleon Group's Raj Rajarartnam.
    No comment from anyone at Goldman Sachs on the penalty.
    Hello?....Anyone?...

     

    http://yhoo.it/16Kmaql
    17 Jul 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    when will they ever get the big fish Cohen? Bharara is still after him

     

    http://cnb.cx/13lb3pG
    17 Jul 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Switching gears here. J P MORGAN wants to settle a manipulation case of a few years ago. I thought manipulation never occurs?

     

    http://huff.to/16KtLVT
    17 Jul 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    guess they got caught & will have to pay up
    17 Jul 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Today's economic calendar:
    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
    9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    10:00 Philly Fed Business Outlook
    10:00 Leading Indicators
    10:30 Bernanke delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony
    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
    4:30 PM Money Supply
    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

     

    Noc, the early bird gets the worm eh?
    18 Jul 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OH, and dance lessons start at 10:30 am as BB talks to Congress. We will learn the 2 step, the shuffle, the backflip, and maybe watch in amazement a special trick of talking out of both sides of your mouth with a microphone and camera pointed straight at you !!

     

    I already am getting my popcorn ready for the show >>
    18 Jul 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    looks like more people are paying attention to the "delivering Alpha "/ conf going on in NY .. Lots of the "big boys/Girls" there giving their words of wisdom ..

     

    Maybe another quiet day
    18 Jul 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    LOL

     

    We're on course to taper in Sept. We're basing it on the data & that doesn't look good for Sept. I heard both within 5 mins of each other. Am I learning the 2 step yet - ready for my own show?
    18 Jul 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    Yup, you got that 2 step down perfectly!! Dancing with the stars are looking for contestants. Just sayin ......
    18 Jul 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS....But if you want to learn the blackflip read this !!!

     

    "Calling the financial tightening caused by rising long-term rates "unwelcome," Bernanke - in Day 2 of Humphrey Hawkins testimony - hints the purpose of his taper talk in June was to wring out some excesses from the markets. "It's probably a good thing to have happen," he says, adding it may now be easier to get hawkish leaners to go along with continued $85B/month in QE. "We've not changed policy. We are not talking about tightening monetary policy."

     

    Ok, am I wrong or does this sound like a ton of crap??
    18 Jul 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Sigh. That's just <fancy characters on the keyboard> manipulation.

     

    So he's now saying he doesn't want to taper? But earlier he said they're still on if the numbers are right... They have changed policy if there goal is getting hawkish folks on board, not just to get neutral voting to happen.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Actually IT, I think that was probably the truth. They want to talk the market down a bit, then let it go. I think that will be the M.O. going forward also as they try to manage the market to an orderly rise, setback, rise...

     

    The problem will be when no one believes the crying wolf game anymore, then what?
    18 Jul 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    That's my point, to me it is manipulation. Now I might be naive to all of this but as an investor I don't like games being played that effect my money, or he did it to prove a point to other FED members.

     

    We do remember the damage control after those words though. So I am not so sure I buy this answer from him. Sounds more like an excuse to me..
    18 Jul 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    I doubt a single member of the FOMC cares about the derogatory effect on daytraders by their comments or misinterpretation of same by media pundits and bloggers...
    18 Jul 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well it seemed to me that after we got that 7% drop a ton came out and had reasons why we should not worry about the FED starting tapering.. "It was a joke, it was a joke, a test run folks"

     

    That is the way I took it !
    18 Jul 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT , All,

     

    Remember tapering is not tightening ,,
    18 Jul 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Can you elaborate on that for us?

     

    Thanks!
    18 Jul 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    My calculations of the tapering proposal suggests another $600 billion in QE purchases by mid 2014. Again, you appear to be listening to bloggers and cable news pundits instead of the BB & the committee members. Common sense does not prevail when one trades on daily volatility. These trades are merely founded on rumour and innuendo and go against the sound principles mentioned recently by momentum and long-term traders/investors in this blog and elsewhere...
    18 Jul 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No , I read comments from the committee members. Not bloggers or pundits!
    18 Jul 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    A link that discusses that

     

    http://wapo.st/14jRUqi

     

    And another

     

    http://cnb.cx/14jRX5v
    18 Jul 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    IT, I thought I listened attentively to BB and don't recall any mention by him of "hawkish leaners". I will add that It would be out of character for him to use that rhetoric. Methinx you're confused...
    18 Jul 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I could be confused. Would not be the first time!
    18 Jul 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ IT on backflip quote

     

    I think Freddy is spot on. I'd bet the quote was by some media or outsider commenting on what THEY think BB said. This phrase gives the clue:
    "BB hints the purpose of his taper talk in June,"
    -- "hints", so it's interpretation. It seemed very odd. So whew glad to hear it's nothing than that.
    18 Jul 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    I'm convinced there is not a single member of the FOMC that cares about anything other than the success of the banking system and the remediation of their balance sheets and their bottom line growth.
    18 Jul 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    All week seemed to be quiet. Not sure why.. Maybe this is normal for the summer. But to my naive eye we are trading in a range for sure.
    18 Jul 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Trading range ---- or quiet before the storm ! A little caution here may not be the worst thing..
    18 Jul 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You said it, I think the same!!
    18 Jul 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Here is an article by an SA author on portfolio allocation or diversification, don't think that has been discussed much around here.

     

    Its a pretty unique article(s) in that the writer states that a completely diversified portfolio can consist of just six REITS only, nothing else.

     

    Heres a link to the two articles, one was written a few days ago, the other is new today.

     

    Anyone have any thoughts on diversification or allocation?

     

    Part 1

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Part 2

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Jul 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Tampat, I saw that first article. If that's diversification, all REITs, then count me out.

     

    I like my portfolio to have a mix of solid companies, with REITs maybe 5% or less. Attractive dividends with REITs but I need a broad range of companies in order to SWAN (sleep well at night).
    18 Jul 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    Yeah, it seems a bit too concentrated to me too, but for the author I kinda see his point. That is his area of specialty and comfort, so it could work for him.
    I don't think there is a magic number of stocks to own and it depends in part on how much money you have to invest as well. I guess if it works for him then thats a good thing, but for the average person it might not be the best situation.
    18 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok , I have two questions

     

    1) does anyone think Obamacare will be overturned?

     

    2) after hearing BB today how long do you think he is going to try and keep interest rates low?
    18 Jul 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Over the past six years the FOMC has been and will continue to be behind the curve. While its preference would envision 30-day and long-term rates staying where they are thru Dec/2014, improving external factors in the international arena will see all rates sucked upward. IMHO by the time the FOMC raises its key fed funds rate in Jan/2016, market rates will have already climbed 1%.

     

    My TRI model suggests the economy will be deteriorating thru 2016 & 2017 and beyond as debt service becomes burdensome. This is not an atmosphere wherein the FOMC will be desirous of raising rates. I fear the days of major banks raising/lowering their prime rates in tandem with FOMC signals is at an end. The FOMC may be forced to use its other tools to appear accommodative. In the absence of QE, FOMC will be able to address UR-3 & Inflation targets, but not the pace of GDP.

     

    GDP & SGDP outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
    18 Jul 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    1. I hope Obamacare is overturned, WIl it actually happen ?, I dont know..

     

    2. Keeping rates low ? I don't think anything has changed ,,
    18 Jul 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    BQ - what was his message today? (I had to leave in the middle, but I don't think that's what's causing my unclarity :). ) Was it for Sept taper if figures hold? Or not?

     

    Did he say anything on another part of the economy or process, that intrigued anyone? I caught a sentence on student loans...
    18 Jul 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • kvatchik
    , contributor
    Comments (499) | Send Message
     
    "Bail-In does not need a crisis environment to occur. It will happen without anything worse than the present happening.

     

    Bail-In can easily be applied to banks and financial institutions that do not pass a Stress Test at the will of the Federal Reserve and State Banking Authority.
    ..
    The idea that the FDIC or SIPC will pay in cash is total madness in a systemic crisis. They will pay in special issue US Treasury instruments that will be salable only over a specific amounts of years, more than likely five years.
    " - http://www.jsmineset.com
    18 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ kvatchik

     

    Interesting. Depressing, but interesting.
    19 Jul 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » " Detroit pulls the plug and files for Chapter 9 bankruptcy after emergency manager Kevyn Orr fails to a cut a deal with creditors. The city becomes the largest in U.S. history to file for bankruptcy. A few stocks trading lower on the news: MBI -15%, RDN -0.2%, MTG -1%, F -0.7%, GM -0.7%, MUNI -0.3%, PZA -0.5%, ITM -0.3%, HYD -0.8%."

     

    Ok so a MAJOR city files for bankruptcy. Exactly what happens now? Is this a non event?? This is strange to me.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Of more concern to regular bond investors will be the outcome of Court's treatment of muni bond holders. After the distasteful General Motors, (original) Argentina and Greece dispositions, the risk premium for fringe jurisdictions could see a bump. That said, the fact Detroit failed was priced into the general markets back in 2012...
    18 Jul 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Scooter-Pop
    , contributor
    Comments (1990) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Tax payers bailed out GM, AIG, Bank after Bank.... and could do something similar for Detroit, numerous Cities in California, Illinois....
    Out of the Box thinking sends the Tax Payers to Fund a Bail Out like BAB's, BAD's may be in order?

     

    I have bought Tracts in Rural Texas with dilapidated buildings and various refuse, altogether referred to as "Refuse". I hired the Track Hoes (Thumbed), Doziers and Dump Trucks to LEVEL and Dispose of the Refuse. I bought the pine seedlings and hired the planters to plant my seedlings. There is a COST to Wreck Out/Dispose the Refuse and begin again/anew, WITHOUT TAX PAYER FUNDING. I did and do tracts as described above WITHOUT Government Subsidy.

     

    Wreck Out and Dispose of Detroit's Abandoned Area(s), Dispose of the Refuse (WASTE) and start all over. Muni Bond Holders and Pensioner's Take a haircut! My Father retired from Eastman Kodak in 1992, Lost ALL Retirement/Insurances in 2012, he is 83 and Going Strong. Retirements/Pensions/I... are lost too often, REALITY.
    19 Jul 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Military involvement in Syria? I am not sure this is baked into the markets !!

     

    http://huff.to/1aw2kTM
    18 Jul 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    Utterly meaningless.
    18 Jul 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    But....will there be any military involvement in Detroit?
    18 Jul 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    @ WMARKW - Lol (but if there are riots, could be?)

     

    @ IT

     

    "kinetic strikes," not military force says the politically savvy general.

     

    Any US movement in Syria is about Iran, sending a message. The Syrian rebels are divided & include extremists. It's been 3 years cause no one can decide between a rock & a hard place. So, any help will be done covertly, as "aid" is delivered or some other pretext.

     

    But a General giving options to a president & announcing it to the Senate publicly... hum... wanna bet this was a setup to send a message to Iran via the media?

     

    Nothing to bake into the markets. It was a non-event. Just Middle East politics as usual (posturing & more posturing.)
    18 Jul 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    Here's some BB Baloney courtesy of Bloomberg

     

    http://bloom.bg/13ojFMc

     

    "Gold prices have fallen this year because investors see a reduced need for “disaster insurance,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said.

     

    “One reason gold prices are lower is people are less concerned about extreme outcomes, particularly negative outcomes, and therefore they feel less need for whatever protection gold affords,” he said today under questioning from the Senate Banking Committee. “A lot of people hold gold as an inflation hedge but the movements of gold don’t predict inflation very well actually.”

     

    Bullion tumbled 24 percent this year through yesterday as some investors lost faith in the commodity as a store of value amid an equity rally and muted inflation.

     

    “Nobody really understands gold prices and I don’t pretend to really understand them either,” Bernanke told the lawmakers in Washington."

     

    I guess all those Central Bank gold swaps and leasing agreements were propounded by someone other than Ben.

     

    I wonder if this ( BB's understanding) is why the FRBNY can't seem to find sufficient bullion to return Germany's gold.
    18 Jul 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Wmark

     

    If we take a more simplistic approach to markets, (no sarcasm intended here ) Gold is lower because of less Demand , equities are higher because of more Demand .
    19 Jul 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12721) | Send Message
     
    Bernanke stated it perfectly.

     

    Gold is another fear index, like the VIX. It's movements don't really correlate to inflation or other economic measures. As fear and market volatility abated, gold lost its shine.
    19 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    Please don't miss the point I was trying to make. Bernanke pleading ignorance on a subject that the Fed is participating into up to their noses.....suggests simple lying or and idea that someone else at the Fed is pulling the strings. I opt for the "simple lying" position. And the fact that someone like Bernanke would do that is, to me, disgusting.
    19 Jul 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Wmarkw,

     

    Help me out here and direct me to the lie. Are you u implying this "lie" is part of the "conspiracy" and manipulation theory that some suggest is causing lower Gold Prices. ? Or have i misunderstood your point. ?
    19 Jul 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I can't speak for WMARKW, but I don't believe for a minute that Bernanke doesn't understand gold.

     

    As to whether govt officials ever lie, well, is that even a question.
    19 Jul 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    I have read that the banks shorts have now been covered and they are now long on gold. Can anyone substantiate this claim?

     

    Thanks!
    19 Jul 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Tampat ,

     

    certainly agree on the gov't officials and lying.. u r correct that isnt a question
    19 Jul 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    As for the manipulation of the PM markets, there is more than enough reliable information out there about that so that its hardly a question, especially by JPM.

     

    JPM has been doing it to the oil market too.

     

    JP Morgan Is Reportedly Getting Ready To Settle For $1 Billion For Manipulating Energy Markets

     

    Read more: http://read.bi/15Spqmi
    http://read.bi/15Spp1U
    19 Jul 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    Yup, i posted a similar article about JPM as well somewhere...
    19 Jul 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    They are still short but have closed a lot of those out and gone long.

     

    http://bit.ly/17r8y5k

     

    “Since the Bank Participation Report of February 5, the US bank category position (in effect, almost exclusively JPMorgan) has swung by a net 100,000 contracts, from net short 70,000 contracts to net long 30,000 contracts (all rounded). There has never been a move of such magnitude before. Over that same time, the total net commercial short position (in the COT) declined by 113,000 contracts, meaning that JPMorgan accounted for almost 90% of the entire commercial decline. It is not possible for that extreme degree of concentration and market share not to be manipulation, pure and simple.

     

    And here’s the manipulative icing on the cake – JPMorgan was able to flip a net short position in COMEX gold of 50,000 contracts in February to a net long position of 50,000 contracts on a gold price decline of as much as $350. I would submit that the singular purchase of 10 million ounces of gold (worth the equivalent of $15 billion) within four months on a greater than 20% price decline could only be accomplished if the price was manipulated lower by the purchaser. No other explanation would be possible.

     

    JPMorgan’s emergence as the big COMEX gold long changes the dynamic of the gold market. In addition to conclusively proving that this is the most crooked and evil financial institution ever to exist, it confirms the extremely bullish set up for the gold price.

     

    Of course, if JPMorgan can continue to accumulate inventory on lower prices, we will get lower prices temporarily. But having JPMorgan confirmed as being on the long side of gold is a game changer.”
    19 Jul 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3503) | Send Message
     
    On manipulation keeping people out of the market... it was the topic of conversation at my doctor's office today. (And I didn't bring it up.) The couple people I was chatting with, consider a reason to avoid the market.

     

    So for whoever was making that point... I observed it in action today.
    19 Jul 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    if i understand correctly-- JPMorgan is now long and a bullish signal for the market. According to article this took place on Feb 5 when gold was 1672, now gold is 1295. (22% loss) If im missing something critical here please let me know , From my view it doesn't add up to a game changer.
    19 Jul 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I can't speak for TAMPAT but i remember that JPM went long on gold AFTER the huge drop in price. That is was mentioned someone, you decide who, orchestrated the drop so that the shorts could be covered, then went long.

     

    Indianamark had a post on this. I will see if i can find it !!
    19 Jul 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Found something close to it..

     

    This beat down may be the final elimination of J P Morgan's short position in silver, something I thought would never happen.

     

    Last week's C.O.T. Report had them 5.000 contracts net short. Six months ago they were 60,000 contracts net short. This has to be the best slight of hand maneuver in our lifetime, all while the price was falling and the specs were going short.

     

    If they are finally net long in silver as well as gold, the next few months could be very exciting.

     

    For the shorts, not so much.
    19 Jul 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10244) | Send Message
     
    No, my point about Bernanke and the Fed is that gold is an intimate component of global central bank activity. Even to the point that both IMF and BIS (if I recall correctly) are "invested" (strategically focused) in gold as a long term component of currency stabilization (sic) and international banking funds flows. These banks have entered into sophisticated lease and swap agreements with each other on a regular basis. Most all, in their financial statements, claim gold holdings in terms that include leased and swapped gold.

     

    To state that he understands little about a central tenet of the banker world is just plain bogus.
    20 Jul 2013, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    I think there are some bargains in the market. (KMB) Kimberly Clark will report next Monday, stock has been drifting down at $98.42. (KMB) is a dividend growth stock, 3.29 % dividend.

     

    (BGS) food stock is down after missing earnings by 2 cents. Projected earnings per share growth 3 to 5 years is 32% and you get a 3.37% dividend. Stock is down to $34.33 from its 52 week high of $36.49.

     

    If you want to charge up your portfolio dividends, (PTY) Pimco Corporate Opportunity fund is at $18.67 and has a 8.39% dividend.
    19 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    The market may be down, but these stocks just keep truckin' (PG) Proctor Gamble, (JNJ) Johnson & Johnson, (GIS) General Mills, (CVX) Chevron, (CL) Colgate Palmolive, (DE) Deere and (TSCO) Tractor Supply. They are all up since I bought them just this week. A few have dipped, but still up from where I bought them just days ago (CLX) Chlorox, (CSX) CSX train co., (LO) Lorillard. My (MO) Altria is up; (PM) Phillip Morris just reported a miss.

     

    Yesterday I sold out the remaining bonds and most of my mutual funds. I made some nice profits on the bonds, buying JPM, BAC, C, AIG, etc. bank bonds a few years ago when they were all cheap. The mutual funds were up too. However, had I bought all the stocks I just spent the last 2 weeks buying instead of the bonds & mutual funds, I would be way ahead. Use my example as a reason to buy high quality, dividend stocks & you will do better than buying mutual funds or nasty bonds.
    19 Jul 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1409) | Send Message
     
    Okay here's something everyone can enjoy, 50+ ways to use WD-40

     

    http://bit.ly/12BqAyB

     

    My favorite was spraying it on your aching knees & massaging it in! Maybe I'll try it in my coffee....hmmm ok that's a bad idea. ; D
    19 Jul 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have received a few PM'S concerning my apparent biased to removing posts. First, let all understand that some day I also have a life, I am not on here 24/7. So give me time.

     

    Now having said this I removed a few posts I felt were unwarranted. I also removed MY OWN post to Freddy a day ago. My concern with FREDDYS post was the language, not the thought.

     

    So I am not picking on anyone one or a few of you posters, I just look to keep this polite and allow authors to present their points of view.

     

    Personally I don't treat a person with years of experience from a newbie any different. If the wording is insulting once I get to read it and feel it is inappropriate it will be removed.

     

    Thanks!
    19 Jul 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    OK, a new chapter is open with a different trivia question for a Friday !!
    19 Jul 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
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