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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 27............  194 comments
    Jul 19, 2013 3:09 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    Here is the link to the READING MATERIAL http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/1998262-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-reading-material

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Post Politely !

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Comments (194)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Boy I must sound like a broken record but here I go again. It seems like some are getting *too comfortable* in their posts and are crossing the line of politeness that I am trying to keep in check.

     

    1) I do have a life as all of you do. So please give me time to review the posts, if I feel they are inappropriate I will remove them. TODAY I have!

     

    2) No one is immune to this !

     

    3) I also appreciate the PM'S with concerns to alert me to a potential problem brewing !

     

    4) I respect ALL posters, some posts go over others heads, including mine, but no way are they inappropriate . I have received PM'S asking me to have some comments written more elementary. I WILL NOT. It is apparent that quite a few of you understand them and I ask those that do not to at least read the links that are always provided. If you still do not understand it then ask a question. I have done this with TACK, FEAR, SOUTH and THEY always gave me an answer, ALWAYS!

     

    5) THIS IS NOT A METALS LINK, some feel it is and I am not sure why you think it is. I have comments in the blog description stating everything is open for discussion. EVEN POLITICAL ones.

     

    6) I usually start every chapter off with a Trivia question to get the ball rolling or ask a stupid question that also starts a conversation. if you don't see this then I am sorry but now you know.

     

    7) I received a PM calling me a hypocrite and I took it as insulting. I do my best to monitor this site and maybe I EXPECT more from a few of you. It might not be fair in your eyes but the more seasoned investors are the teachers here. Most of the time you folks are patient and explain your points of view. But a hypocrite?

     

    8) I am also going to protect those who have been here from the beginning. Newbies need to read the blog's rules and live by them. I will not allow this to turn into a wrestling, insulting, degrading site or I will just bow out.

     

    9) Everyone needs to chill . Including me. We had a very heated chapter and it seemed to calm down. I expected this occasionally as people have convictions and I sincerely appreciate repeating your stance. People that continue to mock those who are trying to TEACH YOU will be watched and monitored more closely. Just stating insults while bringing nothing to the table is a useless post.

     

    10) Now lets get back to chatting on a cordial level. I fully understand that those who are trying to teach get frustrated with repeated questions that sound the same. One important point for newbies is that their is no sure investment, no quick get rich scheme, and as I am in my late 50's am accepting my better starting date is behind me. But I can still try to add to my profits even if they are smaller .

     

    Please PM me if you have an issue with any of this!

     

    POLITICAL QUESTION. IF YOU HEARD THE POTUS THIS AFTERNOON WAS HE OUT OF PLACE WITH HIS COMMENTS ON THE ZIMMERMAN VERDICT??
    19 Jul 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Can't add much more to the Zimmerman comments, diito for me what F&G said.
    Charles Barkley did a good job chastising those who think it was an unfair race based trial as well.
    19 Jul 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    I missed what Sir Charles had to say. Do you have a link?
    19 Jul 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    http://huff.to/15u2IPu
    19 Jul 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    Well yes Obama was out of line. Plus he used a faulty premise in order to slam the "Stand your ground Law" ,which is a VERY GOOD law. I feel he is saying white people are not supposed to be armed if you live in an area where you don't feel safe. This was racial and is inappropriate for a POTUS to do. The Stand your Ground Law was not part of the Zimmerman trial. However the DOJ did spend taxpayer money in an attempt to help the prosecution with protesters and help taint the case.It didn't work and now the racebaiters are mad. Maybe Obama should have done more to help "persecute " the defendant.
    20 Jul 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    Well, when it comes to what the President says: http://bit.ly/1aD9S7h
    22 Jul 2013, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    @ Tfive
    The president has been dividing Americans since day one. He has fulfilled his commitment to those who have given him the position he has attained. Divide and conquer.

     

    A TAMPAT ,I agree with Charles Barkley !
    22 Jul 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAKE

     

    And leaders will lead. He clearly isn't one of them !!
    22 Jul 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    With four scandals hounding his Administration, the celebrity President was only too eager to shore up the base and change the narrative of the press corps. 2014 is scaring the crap out of him..
    22 Jul 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    Just PMed you. I think the lecturing is getting kind of distracting. All was fine... we'd all handled what needed to be...

     

    We've been focused onto the topic of the day -- investing!!!

     

    All is fine, you can relax. No one wants to feel like they're being corralled.
    19 Jul 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Curls.

     

    I receive PM'S all day long that you are not privy to. I made a general statement above to all. YOU might think things have quieted down because the PM'S ARE PRIVATE.

     

    Trust me they are far from quiet. So lets just move on. But relaxed is far from the PM'S i am getting. I addressed quite a few PM'S above so that i can move on to things in life as well.
    19 Jul 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    I can only imagine...
    22 Jul 2013, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Ok here we go , I was totally outraged over his comments. I sat here and listened in disbelief.

     

    IMHO he has totally stepped over the line in even addressing this case, with his initial comments and now with his message today ---- never mind his obvious bias.

     

    I heard an African American commentator eloquently state a rebuttal to Obama's initial remarks and the recent rhetoric from the African American community leaders.

     

    His comment --maybe we need to take a look at the 13 African american teenagers that were murdered during the last week of the Zimmerman trial in Detroit. Its time to come & put our efforts towards that situation and find a fix for what is transpiring in the African american communities across this country than pour our energies & put a spotlight on this one case.

     

    I couldn't agree more....
    19 Jul 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    i COULD NOT agree anymore with you. His timing with the protests planned for tomorrow is a concern for me.
    19 Jul 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I was totally unaware of any protests that are scheduled,, that adds more fuel to this situation and is totally uncalled for.
    19 Jul 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    They are calling it RALLY'S. No parent should lose a child to any type of death. I am far from a racist. But i just don't think the POTUS needed to say anything about this case. We can turn the tables around to a white kid being shot by a black. I think the states or governments should come up with new laws or just keep quiet.

     

    I fully understand the POTUS was under pressure from some groups but it was better to keep mum imo..
    19 Jul 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Understand pressure , but like you ,, IMO he has no business singling out one case and bring it to the forefront.

     

    If he maintained a "presidential /leadership aura", he would have told the pressure groups to move on. These actions unfortunately are further evidence of one of his many "agendas" ..
    19 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Can ANYONE ever remember a POTUS making a 20 minute speech on a case judged by a jury??

     

    Funny, did OJ get any comments from a POTUS?? To me that case was a slam dunk in my eyes.
    19 Jul 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    Well, not 20 mins, but POTUS insulted the Supreme Court at his first State of the Union, on a case judged by them.

     

    Like usual, I didn't hear his speech. I did hear an African American leader earlier this week saying the reaction to this case is a shame because it distracts from the real situations where race is an issue in the justice system...

     

    ... then again POTUS had a great opportunity to bring racial discord & issues to the front with that Harvard Professor. Instead he "had a friendly beer" to solve it. Right then I knew, verbal leadership isn't what we'd get on this issue... To bad, because the color of his skin, makes him an ideal president to be a leader on it.
    19 Jul 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    This case has been politics based from the beginning. In shoring up his constituency, your celebrity President was hoping he could help the Party take the House in 2014. But this week Nate Silver says the Dem's can forget about that prospect and they are behind in the Senate majority race as well. 2014 underscores everything happening in DC...
    19 Jul 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Curls,
    The last paragraph of your comment says it all..
    19 Jul 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    Freddy:

     

    "your celebrity President "

     

    Who's celebrity president? You weren't making him my responsibility? Please.
    19 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    I guess it's time for the gun control argument to heat up again. It failed miserably once already after the shooting in Connecticut, so i am taking a stab that this might be the start of the next round.

     

    The 2nd amendment will be tested again. Maybe they will get it right and at least know what an assault rifle is this time.

     

    Having been a gun owner since i was 12 i am biased of course. But just to go target practice it is so expensive it has slowed down many gun ranges in NY where i live.

     

    Just when ammo started to drop in price ...
    19 Jul 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I shoot competitively so I am very well aware of the increase in the cost of ammo. I hear the government is buying it up. All I know is shells are scarce and there is a lot of price gouging.

     

    I don't believe new laws will fix anything. The problem is much deeper than that. It has always been a law "thou shalt not kill".
    19 Jul 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I have my doubts about them getting this right. It seems like common sense doesn't exist in D.C.
    19 Jul 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @EXTREME

     

    I AGREE, now why doesn't the POTUS tell them that in Chicago? He does have a connection there doesn't he?

     

    Now why is the government buying all of this ammo anyway?
    19 Jul 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    It:

     

    I hear it is homeland security. I have no idea. All I know is I have not been able to buy a 22 caliber bullet for over 12 months. who would want to do anything serious with a 22?
    19 Jul 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yup..

     

    In NY upstate it was once about 25 bucks for 500 rounds. Now they fly off the shelf for $80 bucks.

     

    The gun dealer said that if a shipment of 22 rifles come in on Monday they are gone by Wednesday.. One Wallmart has a line on Wed an hr before the store opens since that is delivery day for ammo yet they have no clue what is on the truck.

     

    Plus our local Gander now has a bakery style system of taking a number. Crazy stuff !
    19 Jul 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    Zimmerman wasn't carrying for self protection.
    Nor to shoot bunnies for dinner.
    He was carrying to make himself feel stronger & more protected for when he got aggressive.
    So question is, how do you regulate that?
    Educate on it?

     

    For the mass shootings, almost all were identified as risk by the mental health system, pre-shooting. The biggest help would be better medical insurance for mental health issues, so there'd be less falling through the cracks. Most aren't violent ever, but the few who are, are in a system that pays 50% of mental health for 80% of other health issues.

     

    How do you regulate for this issue? You can't band an entire population group. Nor will it pick up all the violators.

     

    Our culture, more than many other countries, has more isolation, so the loons aren't helped or spotted so easily. Part of independence for individuals in the US leads to more isolation. So far that's what my research has given me.

     

    I really don't have answers. I think the first place to look, is to stop looking for the easy actions - band or not to band. First understand the problem... But I still don't have answers (which drives me crazy.)
    19 Jul 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    IT, it was the "royal" your...
    19 Jul 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    curls... the SotU dust-up with the Supremes was way back... consider letting go of your frustration.

     

    Regarding the good professor... Look Obama is not a perfect man but he handled this issue as well as one could expect.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    LOL... looks like I dropped in on the hate Obama club. Meh

     

    Perhaps b/c I take a different view I thought the President's INTENT was to diffuse any potential problems re: rallies for one thing. It was a very empathetic speech largely directed at the AA community. That said it wasn't divisive unless you want to see it that way.

     

    Freddy... the President has no need to "shore up his constituency." he's not running again.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    Why is he still campaigning then ?
    When he was for it before he was against it.
    http://bit.ly/1aDJGJA
    22 Jul 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    He's campaigning because he doesn't have anything else to do. He has accomplished ZERO in 8 years.
    22 Jul 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAKE

     

    We are not haters of anything. We just tell it like it is. If you think his 20 minute speech was a good thing then your entitled to what you feel.

     

    This has nothing to do with race and everything to do with leadership. A quality he clearly lacks !!
    22 Jul 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    For someone who attended Reverend Wright's violently racially-oriented, anti-American diatribe for twenty years, everything is about race. Any claims from Obama to the contrary are disingenuous.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    @ TakeFive

     

    No hate here. There's a lot of varied views among the posters here, & you are welcome to post yours too.

     

    On my comment about Obama, I find it interesting that of all the people who posted here, you picked that one to negate as though I should change views. Is it because I invited you to this blog? FYI, it's rarely about politics, so hope you stick around the for the investing.

     

    FYI, I was using my comment on justices to respond to IT's "question." You apparently missed that.

     

    I limited my comments not to Obama, but to his leadership on racial divide. Can you point to some wonderful ways he's bridged that divide? I can't. I can say that I'm disappointed that he hasn't shown good leadership in this area. I do consider his divisive style such as with the justices to be a pattern that effects his lack of effect on the racial issues too.

     

    However, beyond a very narrow topic, I didn't voice my political opinions, & you haven't guessed accurately on them. I'm happy to discuss them privately... but I don't want to discuss them publicly.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    curls... I just made an impulsive response to a long ago situation as I am always amazed at the long shelf life of many "talking points." The Citizens United decision was a bi-partisan bill although more recently many R's didn't care for it. There is soo much money in politics it's ridiculous and the decision only aggravates the problem. That said the President picked the wrong time and place to speak his peace. I am also "one of those" that believe many, many people vote against their own best interest b/c they are impassioned by propaganda.

     

    As for racial politics that is an impossible challenge for Obama. Whatever he chooses will be criticized intensely. Likely why he has avoided it 97% of the time. The exception, for campaign purposes, was his diligent pursuit of the Hispanic vote. Latinos had been notorious for not bothering to vote. Obama made them feel welcome and important and they started turning out and making a difference.

     

    You've got this Great Right Billion Dollar Propaganda Machine that is quite an amazing thing actually. They are very good at what they do. Propaganda fundamentals haven't changed in 50 years and it still works its magic. Obama showing good leadership is not even a possibility. If he had 5 choices it wouldn't matter which one was picked it would be a "terrible" choice.

     

    While I'm fascinated by politics, I don't pay it much mind except in election years. Not a tea party fan, but in my Scottsdale voting district I'm delighted to vote for a normal Republican. I'm also a big McCain fan. Guess that makes me a RINO... but a proud one.

     

    Actually, I've always been an independent and always split my ticket. I'm much more interested in local level politics as its easier to relate the benefits of choice. National politics is totally nutty and "they" do a great job of dividing us in order to conquer us.
    23 Jul 2013, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Didn't take too long for the gun debate to start !! Now we got the wife taking up the cause..

     

    http://huff.to/1bZCJnG

     

    I think that state has worse issues to take care of personally. Plus this isn't her place at all. But the POTUS will try anything !
    23 Jul 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    I dont know if this has been mentioned anywhere, but if anyone is interested in dividend investing they might want to check out articles by Chuck Carnevale.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    IT,

     

    I couldn't remember the chapter number for the suggested reading.
    Perhaps you could add a reminder with the chapter number in the beginning or end your commentary at the top of each blog.
    19 Jul 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    YUP, will do . HERE it is for now!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jul 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    I put Chucks article in the reading chapter this afternoon.. A great read..
    19 Jul 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Thats kinda funny, great minds think alike.
    Well, not really...
    19 Jul 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    Is (MSFT) (microsoft) a buy, at 11% down now?

     

    I'm thinking wait a day or two to see if more down is shaking out. Then if it starts to rise, jump on & wait a few weeks or month. It will come back up. Even if not ideal for long term, there's bound to be a nice swing trade upward in this.

     

    I'm thinking cause I watched it with IBM a few months ago when they missed earnings. But the gripes about them didn't start at that point. It's only been recently. But the gripes about microsoft are already at full swing. So it may be a different pattern here.

     

    Plus there's the longer term question, of whether this makes it a good entry point for a long position. I'm more curious about the swing trade though.

     

    Is tech currently a beaten up sector? If so may not be good for swing at all?? But would be good for long.
    19 Jul 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Curls: I have been buying MSFT once a year since 2009 when I was able to pick up shares at $17+. I have also been selling the shares about once a year too.

     

    I do not view MSFT as a long term hold as shown by that pattern of buying and then selling.

     

    In my last round trip, I sold at $32.83 and discussed the trade in a May 6, 2013 post at Item #3:

     

    http://bit.ly/11Tg3ia

     

    I noted the prior trades since 2009 in that post and provided snapshots. I will not be paying my future nursing home expenses with my MSFT profits.

     

    That trade occurred on 4/30/13 and I looked stupid until today. The shares rose thereafter and closed at $36.27 on 7/16/13 and at $31.4 today on 248+M shares compared to an average volume of 49+M.

     

    Somewhere in one of the prior chapters, I calculated the FCF yield of Microsoft which was really good. The problem is that the company is floundering. Its tablet resulted in a big charge. PC sales are declining and in a major funk. Whenever I think of MSFT, I can not stop the image of an elephant trying to tap dance forming in my mush of a brain.

     

    I will likely make my annual purchase later this year, to be flipped, but I want a lower price than the close today. I would set a target lower than F & G for a re-entry, probably below $28.

     

    Summaries of the analyst remarks can be found in Tiernan Ray's blog at Barron's:

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    19 Jul 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    I'd like to see it below 30 to begin nibbling , another 5-7% down from here. The div yield would be just above 3% then .
    19 Jul 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    For whoever:

     

    I am white. Woman is black. Both agree something very bad happened that night. Zimmerman shouldn't have gotten out of his car to play cop or whatever he was doing (or at least I don't think I would have - someone attempting to break into our house is empirically a different story). Stupid is not convictible the last I heard.

     

    Somehow or another Martin turned the tables. He died. Murder? I wouldn't have voted for conviction. From the admittedly little I know about the case, there was not enough evidence. Manslaughter? Maybe. And that would only be because as far as I'm aware Martin was not armed.

     

    President making statements about a murder case? Really? Like interjecting your opinions hasn't backfired before? And, oh yes, not the purview of our president!

     

    One of my friends described this administration in the most succint way: "amateur hour". Unfortunately, that was several years ago.

     

    Apologies to those who like BO, but I myself was hoping for a lot better. Like, you know, better than Jimmy Carter or Lyndon Johnson better.

     

    @ IT,

     

    I very much appreciate what you've done - creating a sub-forum for throwing around various ideas and getting old, I mean seasoned, investors to join is not an easy task.

     

    But please remember this is the internet. There is nothing to prevent myself or anyone else to make numerous fake accounts and spam the hell out of this site with terrible and insulting commentary. Which I kind of regret writing that sentence as it may give people ideas, but so far I've enjoyed reading the various viewpoints on this blog/forum.

     

    And if folks resort to trolling, then I think myself and others are quite capable of responding (it's not like I would ever pretend to be Ru Paul when interacting with nationalist Egyptians or Libyans on the internet or anything).

     

    That said, the chapter (25? 26?) that you were upset with had some really, really useful information posted in between arguements. I would encourage you not to ask for comments to be deleted:

     

    1. It could be valuable info that is just articulated poorly by someone who is quite knowelegable.

     

    2. If it is a pure troll, the writing style and commentary would be quite recognizable and thus could be shamed by an internet Ru Paul.

     

    And thanks for reminding me I have to go back to work tomorrow! :(
    19 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    Thanks for the thoughts. I personally don't mind trollers as the blog states please bring something to the table. Honestly, i don't believe we have anyone trolling because everyone has been posting for a while.

     

    The ONLY time i will remove a comment if a poster ATTACKS a person or a group. Other then that all comments, ideas, and opinions are ok. I believe i have only removed about 5 posts out of over 4 thousand. So we are fine .
    19 Jul 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    I might add seeing a poster with 10 comments is kinda a giveaway. This isn't my first rodeo... LOL
    19 Jul 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Vix and Gold

     

    Does gold react positively to fear?

     

    One of the most fearful months in my life as an investor was October 2008. The world's financial system was on the verge of collapse after Lehman's BK in September.

     

    The VIX closed at 32.82 on 9/25, hit 69.95 on 10/10/08 (a horrific day for the market) and had risen to 80.06 on 10/27/08:

     

    Historic Prices: VOLATILITY S&P 500
    http://yhoo.it/12Cbfh3

     

    Fear was so palpable that you could cut it with a knife.

     

    During that period, the S & P 500 went from 1,209.18 to 848.92, a decline of 29.79%.

     

    What did gold do? I will use the P.M. London Fix

     

    9/25/2008= $888.50
    10/27/2008=$730.50
    Declined: 17.78%

     

    Link to Kitco:
    http://bit.ly/12Cbfh5

     

    Gold was not rising in 2008 as the U.S. entered into a recession. The opening P.M. fix on 1/02/08 was $846.75.

     

    Gold was rising in 2003-2007 with stocks as the VIX was moving in what I call a Stable Vix Pattern. Volatility was low and stable as the VIX rose from $300+ in 2003 to almost $800 during October 2007, when the market topped out.

     

    Vix Charts from 2004 2005 2006 Stable VIX Patterns Phase 1 and Phase 2
    http://bit.ly/YsaseY

     

    The next surge for gold started after the FED announced QE on 3/18/2009. The London P.M. for that day had already been done at $893.25 by the time of the Fed's annoucnement.

     

    On 3/19, the gold price rose to $956.5 and finished the year at 1087.5. The VIX was moving down during that period, though it was still at elevated levels. This indicates to me that the rise in PMs was due to a belief that QE would lead to problematic inflation.

     

    After the Fed's March 2009 QE announcement, TLT, the ETF for the long treasury started to sink, moving from a 104.5 close on 3/18 to below $90 by June 2009 and was trading below $90 in March-April 2010 (and briefly below $90 in April 2011) When gold started to top out in August 2011, TLT started to rise in price again, trading at over $113 in September 2011 as gold topped out:

     

    TLT Historical Prices:
    http://yhoo.it/12Cbfh7

     

    By the end of 2011, TLT was over $120 as gold was sliding. Is that an inflation signal?

     

    The evidence does not suggest that a rise in gold is correlated with a rise in the VIX. To the contrary, gold reacted poorly to the spike in the VIX and rose steadily during an extended period of stable and low stock volatility.

     

    The average inflation number for 2012 was 2.1% and is running at a 1.7% pace this year:

     

    http://bit.ly/WB2il7?

     

    Gold started 2012 at 1598 and ended that year at $1657.5.

     

    On April 16, 2013, the government's March 2013 CPI number was a minus .2% and a non-seasonally adjusted 1.5% increase year over year:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/12Cbfh9

     

    Remember, the government had been buying $85B in securities since September 2012 in its latest round of QE and yet inflation had been FALLING, nor RISING. The market had to come to terms with a rational, but incorrect, opinion about QE and inflation that had been formed in March 2009 and continued until the later part of 2011 when doubts started to be reflected in the declines in both gold and silver until there was no question about the incorrectness of the QE-Inflation hypothesis reached back in March 2009.

     

    Federal Reserve's QE Announcement March 18, 2009:
    http://1.usa.gov/11BsBgz

     

    Federal Reserve's QE Announcement September 13, 2012:
    http://1.usa.gov/PeaRkf
    19 Jul 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    One element that was at issue back in 2008 crisis was liquidity. In fact, without specifics to support, it's been my experience that major drops in market include "sympathetic" drops in gold as liquidity, margin changes, and margin calls all seem to be a factor.

     

    My take away is to wait til the dust settles and then the logical (?) response seems to appear.
    21 Jul 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    SG51:

     

    How about gold versus the value of the dollar? Any correlation there? Gold is often called the ultimate currency.
    19 Jul 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I would recommend going to Marketwatch or some other site that will allow you to compare GLD over the past five year with DXY (the Dollar Index)

     

    http://on.mktw.net/15u...
    A decline in the DXY would indicate USD weakness against a basket of six currencies weighted in the EURO.

     

    I do see a negative correlation between a decline in the DXY and the rise in gold starting in mid-2009, but the correlation was positive from late 2009 until mid-2010 with both moving up in value. There was then a weak negative correlation during gold's parabola into September 2011 as DXY went down some, but not by a significant amount.

     

    Overall, I would call it a weak correlation pair.

     

    After looking at that comparison, I read this article at ZeroHedge where "Tyler Durden" found no correlation between the USD and gold:

     

    http://bit.ly/124RXpT

     

    I would not go that far but the movements do appear to be random when you can have periods where gold and the USD are positively correlated (moving up or down in tandem) and periods of weak positive or negative correlation.

     

    I also compared GLD with the Dollar Bullish ETF UUP. When GLD was rising in late 2009 into mid 2010, UUP was rising too and then parted ways, as GLD continued skyward and UUP sank some in value. This is basically the same relationship as DXY noted above.

     

    If I change the GLD-UUP chart from 5 years to 1, the decline in GLD since February is associated with a minor 2% to 6% rise in UUP, a weak positive correlation in my opinion between the decline in gold and the USD.
    19 Jul 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    SG51:

     

    Thanks for the info. It is funny how you here about all of these correlations but when you check them out they really are not there.

     

    Thanks again!
    19 Jul 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    All commodities priced in USD have a correlation, it's just with some this is often masked by other price components. My Barrel Meter model found the 2008 record crude price ($129) included $30 attributable to debasement. The 2011 Obama Budget failure fostered a $24 debasement premium. Even today $17 of the current price is attributed to long-term Dollar weakness. For the most part, non-americans do not see the petroleum price volatility enjoyed by y'all in the USA.

     

    price components chart: http://bit.ly/pq7MQI
    19 Jul 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Speaking of commodities i just robbed another posters comment from a while ago. Indianamark did a great job with my Abbot and Costello video i throw up here once in a while.

     

    To discuss the article we have those two noted analysts, Abbott and Costello.
    Our apologies to Who's On First.

     

    COSTELLO: Hey, Abbott.
    ABBOTT: Yeah, Lou.
    COSTELLO: I read where the real price of silver should be $100.
    ABBOTT: Lou, the article is about gold.
    COSTELLO: Yeah, but he mentions silver. Doesn't it trade the same as gold?
    ABBOTT: True,Lou.
    COSTELLO: Alright. Let's start again. I read where the real price of silver should be $100.
    ABBOTT: Not true, Lou. It's more like $150 an ounce.
    COSTELLO: Then why is it $22.00?
    ABBOTT: There are a lot of reasons Lou. The price is set on the Comex.
    COSTELLO: It is?
    ABBOTT: Certainly. When there are more sell orders than buy orders, the price goes down. A favorite trick in the over night market is to dump 500 sell orders when there are only 10 buy orders.
    COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE!!! Why would they do that!?
    ABBOTT: Simple. It keeps the price down. Once, when the price hit $49.60 they sold a billion ounces of silver in one day. Of course the entire world production in one year is only 800 million ounces.
    COSTELLO: WHAT?!! That doesn't make sense.
    ABBOTT: Certainly. But it works. Every time the price starts to go up they simply sell a lot of contracts. It's worked for years.
    COSTELLO: THAT DOESN'T SEEM RIGHT!!!
    ABBOTT: Of course, but the CFTC is looking into it. They've been investigating now for 41/2 years.
    COSTELLO: FOUR AND A HALF YEARS!!? What's going on?!
    ABBOTT: Well, those things take time. But, don't worry, silver will soon reach it's fair price.
    COSTELLO: It will?
    ABBOTT: Certainly. Our stockpile and China's stockpile are gone and industrial use is going through the roof.
    COSTELLO: Industrial use?
    ABBOTT: Certainly. Every cell phone, every computer, many other things use silver. When the users can't obtain their silver, what do you think the price will be/
    COSTELLO: They could use something else.
    ABBOTT: Lou. Lou, Silver has heat dispersal qualities. You use something else your computer or cell phone burns up. You wouldn't want that, would you?
    COSTELLO: Not me.
    ABBOTT: And it's one of the best natural anti-microbide elements in Nature. They can't use a substitute.
    COSTELLO: So one of these days we're going to run out of silver?
    ABBOTT: Absolutely. And then you will see a fair price for silver.
    COSTELLO: So the price of silver is kept low by selling more contracts than there are buyers, just like they do with gold. Wait a minute!!! What if they don't have the silver they sell? I dunno. But the 10,000 industrial users of silver will mean that when they go to buy at the last minute and the silver isn't available, they will panic and be willing to pay any price because they absolutely have to have it or shut their plant down.
    ABBOTT: That was brilliant, Lou. You nailed it.
    COSTELLO: I don't even know what I'm talking about.
    19 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for reposting that IT .Just about as good as it gets LOL !
    20 Jul 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    Still looking for my #23 award.
    Has it been taken away before I ever got it?

     

    I missed the brou ha ha that caused the opening comment, but I will play by the rules from now on.

     

    Great stuff from Abbott and Costello!

     

    LGF is a stock on fire! Anyone have any thoughts on this one?

     

    I read several articles calling for the death of the coal industry and yesterday I heard the CEO of Joy Global say that with the higher price of nat gas, coal is back in favor with power companies. Surplus will be used to power the plants and coal mining will kick into gear next year to replenish the stockpiles.
    Thoughts on coal?

     

    Have a good evening everyone.
    19 Jul 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    Corzine DIDN'T deliver it yet?
    19 Jul 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    That explains everything.

     

    May I suggest that you use a delivery service other than MFGPS (MF Global Parcel Service)?

     

    Life-long Pittsburgh Pirates fan hoping that continue playing ball in second half the way they did in the first half. Let's Go Bucs!
    20 Jul 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    I now have JP Morgan holding it for you !!
    20 Jul 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good.

     

    Just don't want Goldman Sachs touching it. They are having enough fun with aluminum!

     

    Looking forward to a comment from Lloyd Blankfein. I am sure he will shed some light on the NYTimes article....well, probably not, but it would be interesting to hear from him.
    21 Jul 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    Ooops....supposed "fire" at JPM Building (former place I think). But it didn't really affect their gold vault....no problem however, since according to Zero Hedge, they have less than 1 Tonne of gold left there anyway.

     

    "You'll wonder where the Yellow went........"
    21 Jul 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    At what temperature does Tungsten melt at anyway??

     

    Just sayin>>
    21 Jul 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    What do I get for picking 5? Do I get to find out what night, what teams & what score ... for picking right?
    19 Jul 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    You get to take a number and wait for Germany to get their gold first ! American league in baseball won 3 to 0 against the National league.

     

    Technically you were over the number since only 3 runs were scored. But no one else was lower then you so you won by default! lol
    19 Jul 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    What were the teams? And when was this?
    Sigh, I was over. Does that mean I needed to short myself?
    19 Jul 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    A generic comment... several folks have posted answers to questions I asked, with tons of details. It's much appreciated!! I've been taking it in. But I've got to get some stuff done here, so I don't have time tonight to go to each one & (well you know me) ask more questions:-). But I wanted to say thanks!!! I did see & lots of great answers & good info :-).
    19 Jul 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    IT, this is a very interesting article written by an author who should be followed

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The graph showing WTI oil/gold compared to the DOW is very informative. Notice that when WTI/gold (using yesterday's numbers, that ratio would be 108/1293 = 0.08) is under the DOW, the market is rising.....but when WTI/gold goes above the DOW, the market is not doing so hot. Notice especially the period on the graph from 2007 to 2008. So going forward, I'm using this graph to signal how the market should do, going forward. As long as the WTI/gold ratio is below the DOW we should experience a bull market.

     

    I am expecting this bull market to run for awhile. If the price of oil goes to 150 and gold goes to 1000, then the ratio is 150/1000 =0.15. That would mean the market will go down, you can see on the graph WTI/gold would be above the DOW. As long as the WTI/gold stays well below 0.1 and the DOW is 10,000 or higher, this bull keeps on running.

     

    ***already put this in your reading chapter
    20 Jul 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    There will likely be some corrections like the one we had in 1987. That would be good, lots of people are waiting for a correction.

     

    Check out the graph for the 1970s - back then we had a bear market for 25 years that didn't end until Reagan became president.
    20 Jul 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    "...bear market for 25 years..."

     

    You might want to look at the charts, again: http://yhoo.it/y13la5;range=my;compare=;ind...

     

    From 1950 to 1972, the markets were in an almost perpetual bull phase, save for two very brief pull backs in 1961 and 1968, which barely touched 20%-correction bear territory. It wasn't until 1972 that the indices suffered a major, persistent reversal that lasted 22 months.

     

    After that reversal, markets climbed 84% to new all-time highs until Reagan's election and another reversal, while Volcker crushed inflation with high rates. Then, it was off to the races.
    20 Jul 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    Reagan was the best economic president of my lifetime.Something about freedom and the Constitution can have that effect on our economy !
    20 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    I have developed a perspective on the stock and bond markets over more than four decades as an investor. There are powerful long term economic forces that will both create and destroy bull and bear markets. Investors who do not focus on those long term trends will most likely underperform and will never understand why markets are rising or falling.

     

    It is futile to discuss these matters with those whose political beliefs guide and determine their view of historical events that will impact stock and bond prices. I am not going to try here except with a few briefs remarks about inflation, one of those secular forces. Politicians and political parties will invariably be incorrectly assigned blame or credit for events.

     

    I can not look at a long term chart of the DJIA or the S & P 500 and know whether a Democrat or a Republican was President or the political party in control of the House or Senate. I could not look at those charts and make even a decent guess about the marginal tax rates or the tax rates applied to dividends or long term capital gains.

     

    Between 1/1/1949 and 12/31/1965, the S & P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 14.4%, ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION, and with dividends reinvested.

     

    http://bit.ly/vFOfUm

     

    The inflation numbers were benign during those years:
    http://bit.ly/WB2il7?

     

    This is what happened thereafter:

     

    Inflation Numbers:
    1966 3.0%
    1967 2.8%
    1968 4.3%
    1969 5.5%
    1970 5.8%
    1971 4.3%
    1972 3.3%
    1973 6.2%
    1974 11.1%
    1975 9.1%
    1976 5.7%
    1977 6.5%
    1978 7.6%
    1979 11.3%
    1980 13.5%
    1981 10.3%

     

    During those years, the S &P 500 lost over 1% on an annualized inflation adjusted basis with dividends reinvested. The stock bear market did not last 25 years.

     

    The most important event that happened in the late 1970s and early 1980s was the nomination of Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. For years, the FED had allowed inflation to become imbedded in the system. There were all kinds of agreements that had automatic inflation adjustments. Each upward adjustment from the start of that period would place even more upward pressure on CPI. Volcker solved the problem by raising the federal funds rate to unprecedented levels and kept it high, causing a deep recession in the U.S. and consequently suffocated the inflation demon that have been haunting both the bond and stock markets for fifteen years.

     

    With inflation falling in 1982, the market finally came to a realization that this negative secular force was no longer a problem and a long term bull market in both stocks and bonds commenced in 1982, with the stock bull market starting on August 17, 1982. Inflation has fallen to a 3.2% annualized rate by 1983 from 13.5% in 1980 and 10.3% in 1981.

     

    As with other long term bull and bear markets, there were other powerful economic forces that coalesced to support the 1982 secular bull market including technological innovations that improved productivity and lowered costs (e.g. computer revolution) which are frequently present in long term secular bull markets. Another powerful force that started in earnest in the early 1980s and gathered steam into the 1990s was the spending of borrowed money by both consumers and governments in ever increasing amounts. Prior to 1980, the total debt of the U.S. government was less than 1 trillion. The increasing use of debt by consumers can be seen in a variety of charts. I reproduce one of them in my blog:

     

    Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Zulauf/Faber and Financial Armageddon Redux/Debt Burden of the American Household
    http://bit.ly/VI6mOz

     

    Spending borrowed money will create growth but that powerful secular force also sowed the seeds for the disaster that finally came in 2008. Eventually, debt financed growth will come to an end.
    20 Jul 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Part of my prior comment was deleted by SA's computer in transmission. That sometimes happens after I provide a link.

     

    The discussion that was omitted involved the high tax rates in effect between 1949 to 1966.

     

    This is a link to tax tables for both the nominal and inflation adjusted tax rates per year:

     

    http://bit.ly/10nR70Z

     

    For a single person making $102,421 now, the equivalent would be $12,000 in 1954 and the marginal tax rate for income over $12,000 was 43%.

     

    (compare pages 29 and 97)

     

    Back then, that single person might have a mortgage interest deduction to reduce taxable income. But dividends would be taxed at the highest marginal rate and taxable income could not be reduced by contributions to a Keogh, Regular IRA or HSA since those programs did not exist.
    20 Jul 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    From a historical perspective, I thought that it would be helpful to look at a long term chart of the Fed's federal funds rate, a rate that is now hovering near zero.

     

    This long term chart reveals, more than words alone, the extraordinary nature of the Federal Reserve's response, led by the then Chairman Paul Volcker, appointed Chairman in August 1979, to the problematic inflation problem that had been causing serious problems for almost 15 years and the problem was getting worse not better as everyone knew at the time:

     

    Effective Federal Funds Rate
    http://bit.ly/16R6nGi

     

    In response the prime interest rate rose and hit a peak of 21.5% in 1981.

     

    Long Term Chart: Bank Prime Rate:
    http://bit.ly/Q4g7ub

     

    The rise in the federal funds rates to unprecedented heights caused back to back recessions Jan-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982

     

    The long term secular bull market started in August 1982 during a recession!

     

    The Labor Department had been reporting much lower CPI numbers for months and Volcker had started to reduce the Federal Funds rate from around 14.81% as of 6/30/1982 to 10.11% on the day the market decided that inflation was licked and the FED was gradually ending its tightening policy.

     

    Historical Federal Funds rates can be downloaded into Excel at the Fed's website (first entry):

     

    http://1.usa.gov/IN0WMj

     

    I used above the weekly data that shows how the funds rate was starting to fall rapidly just before the market took off in August.

     

    None of the foregoing had anything to do with liberals or conservatives, republicans or democrats.
    20 Jul 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "An "industrial dance … choreographed by Goldman"" and others has cost consumers $5B or more over three years by driving up the premium on aluminum in the spot market, The NY Times says. Since Goldman bought Metro International Trade Services in 2010, warehouse customers' wait for deliveries has gone from six weeks to 16 months. The strategy allegedly involves paying incentives to encourage banks, hedge funds, and traders to renew aluminum leases and then shifting that metal from one warehouse to another in order to comply with regulations which require 3K tons to be shipped each day. Banks may also derive a trading edge from the "valuable market information" they collect by controlling warehouses, the Times notes."

     

    Does this surprise anyone??
    20 Jul 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    If Goldman has been conspiring to drive up the price of aluminum, they haven't been doing a very good job:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bShpRa
    20 Jul 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Maybe the premise was wrong. Could the manipulation on Aluminum been done to actually keep the price down? Would not be the first time that manipulation was done to accomplish this ( see gold and silver )

     

    You just made my point !
    21 Jul 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Gold and silver are lower for entirely logical reasons. Those who refuse to accept this are captives of their own cognitive dissonance.

     

    The dollar is rising, markets are rising, inflation remains low, interest-rates are rising (anti-inflationary), QE is going to dissipate (anti-inflationary) and the procession of imagined economic calamities has grown stale in headlines. Why would metals be increasing in demand or price in such an environment?
    21 Jul 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is called deflation and it is worldwide !! The dollars race to the bottom will expose this.

     

    Held captive huh?

     

    Time will tell.
    21 Jul 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Two interesting articles and comments, one on gold, the other on the markets, if you haven't seen check them out.

     

    "Update On GOFO - Factors That Will Spark A Big Move In Gold"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Jul 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    TAMPAT: I also read the SA article that you referenced and viewed it as an excellent example of "cognitive dissonance".

     

    The author ignored every positive piece of information inconsistent with the bearish thesis, and consequently his opinions lacked balance, which is a clear manifestation of cognitive dissonance.

     

    For example, the author mentioned that UPS warned of a slowing "industrial" economy. UPS did cut its 2013 E.P.S. "growth" forecast to 3%-7% from 6%-12%. Yesterday, on the other hand, GE reported that orders in the U.S. were up 20% and it now had a record backlog in "industrial" orders. The Philly Fed reported last week that its manufacturing index rose to 19.8, far higher than the 10 expectation and the highest reading in two years.

     

    Sure, no one can predict the future with certainty. It is possible to place reasonable probability ranges on future scenarios based on a non-biased judgment of all material evidence, conducted without cherry picking isolated pieces of information that merely confirms an existing point of view.

     

    What would the author of that SA article say about the market's huge move starting in August 1982?

     

    He would be bearish of course viewing it as just another example of lizard brain investors failing to see the obvious.

     

    Wasn't it clear after all that the market had been in a long term secular bear cycle since 1966; inflation was still hot (the CPI average would be 6.1% for 1982); the prime rate was over 14% in August 1982; and the economy was in a recession for pete's sake. Wasn't all of that obvious?

     

    Every statement that I just made is factual about the start of the previous long term secular secular bull market, which resulted in over 14% annualized returns adjusted for inflation in the S & P 500 before its demise, and would seem on the surface to support a bearish thesis. Anyone failing to see the obvious would be a little crazy, wouldn't we all agree to that?

     

    The market saw it differently by not focusing on the present but making a reasonable and rational forecast about the future. The FED was rapidly reducing the federal funds rate, and the inflation numbers were also coming down fast. The correct forecast was that the FED was taking its foot off the economy's throat, and the bogeyman for the last sixteen years-inflation-had just been slained by the FED.
    21 Jul 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    "The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Good article !
    22 Jul 2013, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    @ Southern

     

    You do a good job of outlining how the bullish future outlook shifted the markets in '82 even with the bears mumbling.

     

    Can you do the same for nowadays (which matters a lot more to me at the moment). What's the bullish indicators for current that the market is trading high on, that's unrelated to QE? What are the bearish indicators & are they impacting. If not, why not?

     

    It seems to me the economic news is a mixed bag, with a very slow growth so the market is reacting more (or at least as much) to the idea of QE, than to economic news. Every time QE is threatened the market reactions heavily. (It's reacting to the "idea of QE." I'm not convinced QE itself has had much direct impact recently.)

     

    So I want to open the door to outlining the bullish argument based on hard data of why the market is fairly priced (if it is). You've described some (here & earlier), and this may be a big topic...

     

    To be clear, I'm not bringing in or arguing a bearish view. I'm asking to hear the bullish or neutral view. (Though I don't believe anyone can be neutral - bias is part of having a conclusion on any topic, though one can strive.)
    23 Jul 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    IMO,

     

    I found the article on Gold to be filled with a lot of "hope" for a rebound.

     

    The article on stocks is the typical writings of a "frustrated' bear. Things haven't gone his way, so it's all an illusion.. This Fits into where he has "been" with his prior articles..
    21 Jul 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    What happened to your sense of humor, or maybe it should be sense of entertainment.

     

    I especially found the stock article and comments to be quite entertaining.

     

    No one really knows whats going to happen even though a lot seem to think they do both bull and bear. I like reading the different perspectives and can be entertained even if I don't entirely agree.
    21 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    Still have my sense of humor ;)
    I actually thought the author of the gold article was quite "funny"

     

    But I'm Not sure i get "entertained" by what i read in either, then again I'm sure a lot of people aren't entertained by my comments either :)
    21 Jul 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Oh, I don't know about that. I sometimes find myself actually LOL after reading some of your comments :)
    21 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HEY. If you guys wanted to laugh you should of seen my moves after Tampat's WIFE TAZERED ME OVER A PARKING SPOT.

     

    What moves I showed that day!
    21 Jul 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Southgent,

     

    I think your criticism of the author is overdone. You wrote that "the author ignored every positive piece of information inconsistent with the bearish thesis, and consequently his opinions lacked balance..."

     

    I would counter that you ignore negative information and consequently your opinions lack the same balance.

     

    You say the author cherry picked data with his reference point (UPS) but you did the same using only GE and the Fed survey as well as only cherry picking his UPS data point. In addition, you failed to mention the other reference points he gave such as the lingering recession in the eurozone and a slowdown in China, that the IMF and OECD lowered their global GDP forecasts, that the U6 unemployment rate (the one that captures discouraged and underemployed workers) at 14.3%, the decline of 2nd quarter EPS growth forecast from 8.4% to 2-3%.

     

    As to your comment about what the author may or may not have thought in 1982, thats pure speculation on your part as you have no way of knowing what his or anyone else's views may have been 30 years ago. I would guess most people change their views on things over the years as new information becomes available and because of their life experiences.

     

    FInally, the author did not predict a market crash, only that investors have strategies in place to guard against downside risk to their portfolios. Do you consider that to be bad advice?

     

    As part of that commentary discussing the events of 1982 you wrote that "the market saw it differently by not focusing on the present but making a reasonable and rational forecast about the future."
    Ok, so the big question becomes, are investors currently making a reasonable and rational forecast about the future today?
    We can't know the answer to that yet but time will tell.

     

    Setting aside the article, this from the Wall Street Journal this week:

     

    "The jobless nature of the recovery is particularly unsettling. In June, the government's Household Survey reported that since the start of the year, the number of people with jobs increased by 753,000 – but there are jobs and then there are "'jobs."' No fewer than 557,000 of these positions were only part-time. The June survey reported that in June full time jobs declined by 240,000, while part-time jobs soared 360,000 and have now reached an all-time high of 28,059,000 – three million more part-time positions than when the recession began at the end of 2007."

     

    "That's just for starters. The survey includes part-time workers who want full-time work but can't get it, as well as those who want to work but have stopped looking. That puts the real unemployment rate for June at 14.3%, up from 13.8% in May."

     

    And this from the US Chamber of Commerce related to the implementation of the ACA:

     

    "Small businesses expect the AHA requirement to negatively impact their employees. Twenty-seven percent say they will cut hours to reduce full-time employees, 24 percent will reduce hiring, and 23 percent plan to replace full-time employees with part-time workers to avoid triggering the mandate."

     

    The point is, there are plenty of issues that can derail this fledgling recovery. I don't believe this recovery will be lasting and there is a good chance for a relapse. Right now the market see's it differently, but that can change very quickly. Evidently investors at this time are comfortable enough with the small improvements to keep bidding up stocks to higher levels and maybe that will continue, until it stops.

     

    We can sit here all day and throw stats back and forth in support of a positive or negative viewpoint but that will be an exercise in futility. I realize at this time investors say buy, buy, buy but I think just as many negative data points exist as positive but its the positive that are being focused on because the market is rising. When it falls the negative data points will receive the emphasis.

     

    Is there anyone who thinks that without QE the markets could stand on their own two feet or would they be traded differently if the only criteria used were to be economic fundamentals without any QE?
    21 Jul 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    tam:

     

    "Is there anyone who thinks that without QE the markets could stand on their own two feet or would they be traded differently if the only criteria used were to be economic fundamentals without any QE?"

     

    Sign me up. QE is one of the most misunderstood policies in economic history. QE was a liquidity restoration measure, not a fiscal policy. And, now, that liquidity has been more than restored for many, many months, it's additions, almost all going into excess reserves, have almost no economic impact. In fact, the Fed is right to have concerns about the need for tapering, as the sudden large expansion in consumer credit in the last report is a warning shot that those excess reserves could be converted into too-rapid monetary expansion, leading to excess inflationary pressure.

     

    Personally, I find it somewhat amusing to reading the litany of commentary, split between those who believe only QE is holding up the world economies in thin air and those who decry QE as a failure because growth rates lag whatever number they would prefer, instead. Neither group, apparently, understands what the role of QE was or its limitations. It was not, is not, a fiscal-stimulus program in and of itself, and it did do exactly what it set out to do, which was restore liquidity and recapitalize banks.
    21 Jul 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    When the issues are resolved to the satisfaction of all, and everyone "feels good" we will be at the top... The "change" from where we were to where we are is what the market has & is viewing to drive this recent rally.. At some point it will pause & re-evaluate, a healthy correction to work off the excesses. U r right, it will be at that time the "negatives" will get the most attention..
    21 Jul 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Happy to amuse.

     

    You may be right, but I think the psychological impact of QE is what matters more.

     

    "QE-what it set out to do, which was restore liquidity and recapitalize banks."

     

    That has been accomplished, why did it continue from QE1, to QE2, to QE3 to QE indefinitely?
    21 Jul 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Observing the differences between what South wrote and what the author of the article penned , it's evident that one has been right on the market (south )and one has had it "wrong" (author) . I think one has to ask themselves , should i pursue the theories and examples of the guy that so far has it correct, or do i go out on a limb here and say well , let me use the examples of this other guy (author) ---- he has to be right sometime doesn't he?

     

    Now we are playing with real money here, so I would suggest to opt for the guy who has been correct --

     

    I don't have all of the answers, so I try to use the people who have had it "correct" more times than not to formulate an opinion of the market at a given point in time.. Mentors, educated , experienced individuals that have a proven track record . I may be twisted, but when i pick up a newsletter that has been bearish since 2010 , i tend to ignore the ramblings..
    21 Jul 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    tam:

     

    It proceeded to multiple QE's because there was a lot of bad debt to absorb in a deflationary cycle. Personally, I thought QE3 was stretching it, and that has somewhat been proven true, as the slosh into excess reserves increased substantially. Those excesses are latent credit-creating capacity, and the Fed has to ensure that it isn't all suddenly converted into private-sector loans, which would be inflationary and could elevate credit risk.

     

    I agree with you about perception, and that's why talk of tapering caused a mini-panic. That reactive behavior will pass, as investors find the economy relatively unaffected by reductions in QE.
    21 Jul 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I didnt base my comments on anything other than the content of the article. I didnt know what his past articles were about or his long term stance on things and there was nothing in his articles that would change any of my views one way or the other and I dont think that was the issue anyway.
    21 Jul 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Tampat: My comment was obviously not intended to be a comprehensive analysis of both positive and negative factors. Instead, I simply pointed out that the author was cherry picking his data which is both an accurate and fair observation. By doing so, his underlying predilection toward bearishness is evident, and it is an affliction that most likely lasts a lifetime. The bears were certainly out in force during the summer of 1982, naysaying the rally, just as my bullish friends were critical of my decision to sell stocks into the parabolic move in 1999.

     

    I am neither naturally bearish nor bullish and have been both as an investor.

     

    I was so bearish in 1999 that I sold out of stocks entirely and substantially pared my position in 2007 that helped me to substantially outperfrom the S & P 500 for the three and five year periods. I publish those results in my blog, along with snapshots of my trades, where I also include a discussion of both positive and negative data that influence my big picture views.

     

    Snapshot at
    http://bit.ly/U1amOe

     

    I did not find your discussion of negative data to be new, nor to be all encompassing or even objective on the limited points raised about jobs.
    21 Jul 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    "I did not find your discussion of negative data to be new, nor to be all encompassing or even objective on the limited points raised about jobs."

     

    You state the obvious, it was not intended to be. As I said - "We can sit here all day and throw stats back and forth in support of a positive or negative viewpoint but that will be an exercise in futility".

     

    May I suggest we let the economic activity and the markets determine the outcome over the coming months.
    21 Jul 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Tampat: Since I am a serious investor, I have to plan and invest now based on my unbiased and comprehensive view of both negative and positive data. If I waited, as many individuals have done for the next data point, I would not have been riding a 150%+ upward move since March 2009.

     

    I would not base a decision just on negative or positive data points "over the coming months", anymore than I based a decision on the then current data points in the summer of 1982. I am focused on large secular bullish and bearish factors for markets and the worldwide economy that includes the current data from a wide variety of original sources, both here and abroad.

     

    It is typical myopic bear or bull group think to focus on three months of data and then project that data into the future as if nothing ever changes. I see that type of analysis everday here at SA in the articles and in comments.

     

    Just as an example, one perpetual bear justified his views based on a few months of negative monthly ISM manufacturing numbers, without mentioning the positive ISM services data, even though the U.S. economy is primarily a service economy.

     

    But even his reliance on the decline in the ISM manufacturing number was misplaced and only showed his very narrow, cherry picking type approach to data.

     

    In every recovery, the manufacturing ISM will generally shoot up first, the new orders component leading the way, as I discusssed in my blog back in the spring of 2009.

     

    MAY 25, 2009 Post:
    "In the recessions which bottomed in March 1975, July 1980, March 1991, and November 2001, the new order index from the ISM bottomed 1 to 3 months before the recession bottomed. The ISM new order component hit bottom in December 2008 at 22.7"
    http://bit.ly/18wV3FX

     

    During the recovery phase, the number will bob up and down, as shown in a long term chart of that data series. Anyone focusing on a month or three months as a justification for anything is simply demonstrating their bias and those who are negative seem to do that on a regular basis, throughout their entire life.

     

    ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index
    http://bit.ly/14ouiz0

     

    I would personally look forward to a 20% correction, similar to the one that occurred in mid-2011, as I am taking profits in many positions now and would like to redeploy at lower prices.
    21 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    South,
    Your comment
    "I would personally look forward to a 20% correction, similar to the one that occurred in mid-2011, as I am taking profits in many positions now and would like to redeploy at lower prices."

     

    Now i don't have a huge sampling of data , but from what i 'hear" and "observe" there are many money managers that want the same. Now i wonder if that money will find its way in as market gets weak to keep pullbacks a little more contained.

     

    I would be ok with around 20% because i have also harvested profits & raised cash. But i may be nibbling around 10- 12% or so ..

     

    Another source of buying may come from what i have noted from the last trimtabs data. Most of the funds that exited the bond market recently , went into cash. IMO ,the bond to stock rotation hasn't begun yet .

     

    Of course one "scare' & the inept DC crowd can change that in a hurry.
    21 Jul 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    F & G: I would be buying a dip too. There have been four dips since the bull run started in March 2009.

     

    I have previously referenced a chart prepared by Doug Short showing those dips which perpetual bears will always use as proof of their position:

     

    4th Chart on this page:
    http://bit.ly/nJLfB3

     

    The S & P 500 is up 150.1% notwithstanding the following four dips:
    -15.99%
    -19.39%
    -9.94%
    -7.67%

     

    There will be some negative data points that will align with those dips.
    21 Jul 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    Do you not think that QE has supported the government's level of deficit spending without pushing interest rates up? To that end I would say that it has a "fiscal policy" component associated with it - although a kind of first derivative.
    21 Jul 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Its that fascination with Fed policy that still intrigues me. I guess i can say it does entertain me from time to time..

     

    Like the market cant exist, much less appreciate without QE.
    21 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Of course the markets can exist, that was meant as something like sarcasm I guess, wasn't it.

     

    And of course they can appreciate without QE as the past has shown. But it would be interesting to see how the markets would have done had QE ended after QE1.
    Or #2, or #3, or now.

     

    If the Fed came out tomorrow and said ok, the banks are all recapitalized, QE is done effective this week, the markets would freak out until they found a new, lower trading level and then trade off of fundamental economic activity.

     

    Thats what I would like to see, wouldn't you?
    21 Jul 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    Since we couldn't control it and QE wasn't stopped, what the markets "would " have done in its absence is immaterial. As i play my "hand' do i say "if " the dealer just "would" have thrown me an 'ace' , i could have done this or that .. Instead I play what i am holding -- QE after QE. For those that chose not to play for their own personal reasons , I understand & respect that , but if one made that decision , don't blame the dealer.

     

    I believe it should be evident that the fed isn't going to step away from what "they" believe is the correct strategy and throw it all away with an aggressive move.. I believe they realize what a crazy knee jerk reaction we might get given your scenario of an abrupt end. Its quite evident from their approach and actions they will withdraw and observe.. withdraw & observe.

     

    Will coke , pepsi, general mills , P & G, Mcdonalds ,chevron earnings really get impacted if they taper from 85 bil to 65 bil .? & if that process then continues until expiration..

     

    Some say it will have "dire "consequences - A change , yes, an adjustment in some valuations yes, but honestly we may need that now with some of the valuations on certain sectors , QE or no QE.
    21 Jul 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Okey dokey.
    21 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Finding the above comments very informative as I see some are sitting on both sides, being cordial, and presenting their reasoning.

     

    Now others can sit back and decide who might be right, are all right?, cherry pick what they choose !!

     

    SOUTH and TAMPAT you are making very good cases for either side. We obviously know where TACK sits on this. But I am sure he has made mistakes before..

     

    Myself, I own physical for a while now so you know where I sit on this !
    21 Jul 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have an idea. Some here have stated what returns they average annually, others have not. How about ANYONE interested in listing lets say 25 investments, Starting on Monday, and creating a portfolio for all to follow.

     

    This way I am sure one of you will be monitoring the moves and we can look back in 6 months to see how had the better % gain. Now I am sure those who are seasoned should be up to this .

     

    Curious to see who is willing to put their picks where their comments are. You folks can break down what rules you want to make. We have Blue Skies, Tack, South, Fear, and others who feel they have a good handle on this. Please ANYONE CAN BE INVOLVED.

     

    But I am curious who is willing to place a mock draft up for all to see. Manage it anyway you like, and then the readers can see how you manage your portfolio.

     

    I could care less who does what at the end of the year. It is an exercise to show others how one manages their portfolio. What a great lesson this could be.

     

    So throw out the rule for all to agree on. TACK, you say you ROUGHLY average 18% a year and have bee doing this for 40 years. So I appreciate you setting some basic rules you need to show how this is done.

     

    Others please throw out their thoughts as well. This can go on for as long as anyone wants, or does not have to be done at all. Would appreciate though some thoughts on this idea.

     

    Thanks !

     

    Winner in 2 years gets a 100 oz Tungsten gold bar being managed by Corzine and held by JP Morgan. The executor will be Goldman Sac's !!!

     

    So who is up to it?. RULES are wide open to be set by the participants !!

     

    Good Luck ..
    21 Jul 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13423) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    15-20 years.

     

    I wrote a long, long post many moons ago on what I do and what rules I try to apply. I wish SA had a much better search enegine and a way to "star" keep posts for future reference. I'll try to ind this, but don't have the energy or time to recreate the entire thing.

     

    It's really not of valuable to me to post a static list of holdings because I alter these constantly. I did, just recently, provide detailed allocation information, as requested by rich or curls. This was in one of the latest 20-something blog chapters.
    21 Jul 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    IT: I provide detailed lists of my holdings in my blog. Whenever I buy or sell, I now include a snapshot of the trade and the brokerage calculation of the profit or loss.

     

    I will frequently refer here at SA to snapshots of positions contained in the blog, showing the trades and my approach to selling the position. An example was the use of cash flow to acquire odd lots in Intel and GE after Lehman's failure:

     

    Item # 4:
    http://bit.ly/TPnuT9

     

    At the blog, it is necessary to click a snapshot to enlarge it for viewing.

     

    At the end of Gateway Posts on a particular subject, I will include snapshots of the trades

     

    Examples:

     

    Regional Bank Basket Strategy:
    http://bit.ly/WbVA5R

     

    Trust Certificates:
    http://bit.ly/TZTMNN

     

    Lottery Ticket Basket:
    http://bit.ly/TkDIoK

     

    Floating Rate Equity Preferred
    http://bit.ly/ZpE6Yj

     

    I will also post periodically my positions in stock funds. The last update was in June:
    http://bit.ly/11zov4i

     

    Those type of discussions will frequently have a number of snapshots showing existing unrealized or realized profits, etc. or links to other posts containing snapshots.

     

    I also include snapshots of my performance calculated by my broker. I am very open in what I do for instructional purposes.

     

    Unfortunately, my approach can not be easily duplicated due to its complexity and many moving parts. At any given point in time, I may have 400 positions throughout the capital structure worldwide. Some are really small, such as the positions in my Lottery Ticket basket. I will update snapshots of the LT positions once a month with the last update in June:

     

    http://bit.ly/14H8vAK

     

    At the moment, I am cautious with a high cash allocation which is not unusual for me. The main taxable account is over 20% in cash and my Roth IRA has about 10% in cash. Both cash accounts are earning nothing of course.

     

    As mentioned here at SA and in my blog many times, I ran my cash allocation to well over 30% and shifted money into short term investment grade individual bonds with proceeds from stock sales in 2007. I then sold the bonds in February 2009 to reallocate back into stocks in March 2009 as documented in my daily blogs from that period.
    21 Jul 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Since being here on SA , i often received inquiries of my "track record" .

     

    Trying to be transparent as possible, I decided to post them in my instablog here on SA for all to see. http://bit.ly/12ZAUPX

     

    It includes some of my picks this year , along with updates on overall market commentary. I also have started a piece on "call writing "which i am updating as I proceed with that segment of a "typical" portfolio.
    I'll add selections as we go forward.. It is not all of my holdings, but a decent sample to use.
    I listed core holdings on this blog a while ago and will see if i can find that and will add that info as a blog update.
    21 Jul 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    F&G (or anyone else),

     

    Where would you suggest someone who has cash to invest but doesn't want to at this time to keep those funds?

     

    There are probably more than a few people in that type of situation, perhaps waiting for a pullback to put more money to work, that might appreciate ideas on that.

     

    In something other than a money market fund?
    21 Jul 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    Tampat,

     

    Since most that I oversee want flexibility to get in or out of market they are parked in simple money market fund with no yield. Especially now since I expect to put money back to work during any corrective phase. 

     

    Hers is what Fidelity says about short term cash - Nothing great here either. but beats less that 1%

     

    http://bit.ly/1bDeME8

     

    Another link from a Vanguard fund..

     

    http://bit.ly/1bDeKMw
    21 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Allocations isn't what I am looking for. But if you don't want to participate you owe no explanation.

     

    I am looking for specific stock picks starting in August with a budget of lets sat 100k, The rules are OPEN to all suggestions and the participants will decide them, not me !!
    21 Jul 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Ok, so your not interested. That's fine..
    21 Jul 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    I added a list of holdings on my instablog here on SA , and will update if i make changes,
    21 Jul 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I am in!
    I will list the stocks that I currently holding in my portfolio. I will not list the stocks held in my wife's portfolio :-) (DIS, UPS, AAPL, and others)

     

    Is it too early to throw them out there?

     

    Here goes-
    AAPL
    ACI
    AMD
    ARNA
    AUY
    BRK
    COP
    COWN
    CSX
    EPD
    HAL
    HTA
    LFG
    MCP
    NTI
    PSX
    STO

     

    I will update if/when I am adding or selling shares or stocks. I manage my own portfolio. I do not use a financial advisor. I do my own research, which I enjoy.

     

    I am interested to see how others are managing their portfolios.
    21 Jul 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    deercreek... I like it. Like the diversity. Had to look up COWN is all.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    TakeFive: I have COWN on my Lottery Ticket monitor list. I have thought about buying some shares. COWN does not pay a dividend which would limit the amount of my investment.

     

    A long term chart is one reason for that classification:
    http://yhoo.it/13YIwcR;range=my

     

    LT Basket Strategy Explained:
    http://bit.ly/TkDIoK

     

    Last Update:
    1. Update for Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
    http://bit.ly/14H8vAK

     

    ********

     

    As to the political commentary anywhere at SA, as well as the guns and ammo commentary here, I just ignore it.

     

    Occasionally, I will make a comment, which will receive no "like" votes, that it is imperative to cleanse one's mind of all pre-existing political beliefs when putting on one's investor's hat.

     

    Another type of comment, which will land like a thud, is that political parties and politicians are not that important, and are frequently irrelevant, compared to the long term secular forces that drive bull and bear markets.

     

    Investors will frequently fail by bringing those beliefs (conservative, moderate or liberal, democrat or republican) into the investing arena and will blame countless others rather than themselves.

     

    22 Jul 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    TakeFive,

     

    If I am not mistaken, we both hold some of the same stocks, unless you have re-tooled you portfolio.

     

    Thank you for your comment. Investing on my own always leaves me wondering if I am too heavy in any one sector.

     

    I sold AMD this morning and picked up shares of ALU. Small position, nothing to throw the portfolio into flux.

     

    I moved into several more dividend payers over the last few years. Still like speculative plays (small share/dollar amounts) for keeping me on my toes. LGF has paid off very well for me. I argued with a poster several months back about LGF. I felt they had upside, he did not. The same conversation took place with BRK.

     

    Thanks again for the comment.
    Have a great evening.
    22 Jul 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    @ South

     

    I suspect you don't get reactions to saying it's not about politics because

     

    - those who agree think it's obvious so why "like." It's a "non-topic."
    - those who are focused on political impacts, aren't paying attention anyway.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    Deer: You seem to have a number of energy related companies in this portfolio. I have been adding some to energy stocks recently with purchases of Husky Energy and Royal Dutch.

     

    I discussed buying Husky and adding to Royal Dutch earlier this month:

     

    2. Bought 100 HUSKF at $26.42
    http://bit.ly/153Z9yZ

     

    1. Added 50 RDS/A at $65.99
    http://bit.ly/10NcApK

     

    I have owned Statoil in the past but no longer have a position.

     

    I considered buying 100 BRK in 1974 at $16. Most of my major mistakes over the years can be grouped under the general heading "failing to buy" rather than buying or selling too early.

     

    I do own one closed end fund that has a major weighting in BRK but the expense ratio is too high:

     

    Bought 200 of the Stock CEF 200 BIF at $6.67
    http://bit.ly/WsXlM3

     

    I have bought and sold BRK and currently have no position.

     

    I also own the CEF PEO which owns energy stocks and the CEF ADX that owns a lot of PEO.

     

    Last Friday, PEO closed at a -14.95% discount to its net asset value:

     

    CEFConnect Page:
    http://bit.ly/15XXbAy

     

    I would consider adding at least one well known consumer staple stock like GIS when and if there is a meaningful correction which does occur periodically with those names. I last bought some GIS shares at around $35, probably when there was a 20% correction in the market during mid-2011.
    21 Jul 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate the comment, you sharing some stocks, and your advice.
    I will research some consumer staple stocks in the next few weeks and see what fits for me.
    I owned Coke for a few years and may look at it again. I am still kicking myself for not jumping into SAM a number of years back.
    Thank you and have a great evening.
    21 Jul 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    I would like the participants to come up with the rules. Like a portfolio dollar value ( say 100k ) and then a breakdown of how many shares of each you own, at what price, and well look at it quarterly unless you trade in and out then just post it, and maybe your reason why you did.

     

    I don't care if you buy one day and sell the next. What I want to accomplish is the thought process that goes along with managing a portfolio.

     

    Simply stating I have given people a post of what I like to invest in isn't what I am after. If posters have no interest in doing this it's fine. I just thought it was a good idea. So as I see it we have ONE YES so far. Trust me I am not doing this to test anyone's track record.

     

    Far from it, I am hoping people get to learn reasons why people buy and sell. If it is too time consuming for some I understand, too personal I also understand. So let's see who wants to play by Friday, set some rules, and begin the process.

     

    DEER is in!!

     

    I would like to start the trading anytime in August. Not what you own now but ANYTHING new you want to buy and keep in mind the 100k balance. Now I would like someone else to change the rules if you like. I am sitting out watching how the logic works, why someone sells to make a profit, and to see how others respond.

     

    If you don't have the time I understand. But for those who do let me know by posting. So I am not sure if well even get anyone to do this. But I felt the exercise was worth trying .
    21 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    maybe i misunderstood or jumped the gun here , Ok 'I'll play along - hypothetical portfolio, starting Aug 1 we each have 100k cash balance to invest.

     

    maybe set up a separate chapter On Aug 1, ? easier to go back & forth , update & review .. for quick reference
    21 Jul 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Great point. I will set up a CHAPTER for investment moves and if you want to comment why you did it that would be great. I think the lurkers would love this.!

     

    I could care less if we ALL lost money doing this. It is the logic I am after. Too bad TACK won't change his mind..

     

    Oh well, now we have 3 participants...Come on folks join in !!
    21 Jul 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5596) | Send Message
     
    I, too, may have jumped the gun.

     

    I am still in, but will have different stocks in my hypothetical portfolio.

     

    Please excuse my exuberance in posting my "real" stocks. I do thank those who commented on them. I appreciate the feedback.

     

    Looking forward to the Rules of the Portfolio exercise.

     

    Have a great evening everyone.
    22 Jul 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DEER

     

    I have a CHAPTER set up where we are all discussing the rules this week, Please feel free to add any thoughts.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Jul 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    My take on Zimmerman and what he says about the police state:
    There are a lot of authentic police officers who have Zimmerman's mentality, except they wear a real badge

     

    I know the Zimmerman comments were back aways, but Zimmerman reminds me of a former next-door neighbor I had, who was a "wanna-be cop." He did not meet minimum requirements, but he always listened to the police scanner, and his car was a former decommissioned police car & he installed a search light on it.

     

    One day I read in the police arrest log in the paper that he was arrested for impersonating a police officer, by having and using a red flashing light installed on his dash, and had stopped a woman with the red light and "warned" her about speeding.

     

    Zimmerman wanted to exercise police power -with a gun, over another individual. The problem here is that there are a lot of authentic police officers who have Zimmerman's mentality, except they wear a real badge. Just look at the captured videos (on youtube) of cops going into a rage and slamming down a teenage girl to the concrete, or even worse punching a woman in the mouth, knocking out teeth.

     

    With Obama, (I could have been Travon) this is an event that just cannot be wasted: Turn it into to a campaign against white males with guns.

     

    ZIMMERMAN = WHITE MALES WITH GUNS = ZIMMERMAN
    21 Jul 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    I have given this more thought, What If Zimmerman wasn't carrying that gun, ? Travon breaks his nose, continues to bash his head into concrete, eventually Zimmerman dies. Travon walks away into the night with his hoodie , eating his skittles.

     

    Do u think we would have ever heard of that ? It would have been buried in the back of newspaper-- "man who acted as neighborhood watch patrol found beaten & left to die" Police have no suspects.

     

    Think again about a campaign !
    21 Jul 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Yup, buried in the back of the paper. Good point.

     

    Boy, gotta tell you that Al Sharpton NEVER misses a photo op does he??
    21 Jul 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    It really is a shame , these so called "leaders" have the perfect opportunity to address serious issues . Sharpton & others need to address the african americans who are killing other african americans daily in big cities across the country, Go there and get that mess fixed instead of grandstanding....

     

    21 Jul 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Why should he? It is a lost cause in the short term. Big Al is just looking for the fast buck. He showed his mug where I live in NY quite a few years ago with that Tawana Brawley case and we all knew what her gig was.

     

    But the papers ate it up until the truth came out then Big Al ran from Orange County as quick as he could !
    21 Jul 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    F&G
    I agree that if Zimmerman was killed, it would have been a non-event. He should not have been so confrontational and Travon should have played it more cool. It was a lose-lose situation.

     

    The only person who wins is Obama and the Al Shartpn's who will shamelessly exploit it.
    21 Jul 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    John
    Obama "won" nothing with his remarks . He lost whatever credibility he had left with most after that absurd lecture he gave the other day ..
    21 Jul 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    Zimmerman never would have gotten out of his car & challenged Martin without that gun.

     

    Listen to the police tapes of Zimmerman's interview with police right after he killed Martin. He shows no unease, just a few hours after killing Martin. These tapes are fascinating to listen to.

     

    http://bit.ly/14wzqD4

     

    I've talked to my son several times about this situation. He's 19 & says he would have punched Zimmerman for harassing him. If Martin had called 911, maybe we would know what really happened. Maybe holding his phone, telling Zimmerman he was on the phone with 911 would have stopped Zimmerman from killing him. Instead, they got into a fight with a horrible result.

     

    It's a tragic situation.

     

    If you don't have brown/black skin, you really can't understand.

     

    I'm white & my son is dark skinned. My son could have been Trayvon.
    22 Jul 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    I know most won't respond to your comment but I will since it is my blog. Like I posted I never want to see any child murdered. EVER!!. I don't care what color or race. A parent burying a child has to be the worst feeling in the world.

     

    Our discussion really was about how the POTUS got involved and I felt he should not have. He turned a tragedy into a political agenda. The day before the rallies and said he was being pressured from groups to speak out?

     

    Had he shown true leadership he would of stayed quiet. That night turned out to be a tragedy for our nation once the POTUS spoke. He made it personal to him and his family and I believe it wasn't called for.

     

    No disrespect intended towards anyone here. I just didn't care for seeing him on TV talking about this. He is the POTUS for everyone, and I am sure I can find 100 murders that maybe were unjust but never commented on prior.

     

    My comment has nothing to do with guilt or innocence. I HOPE you understand my point and I think every parent needs to talk to their kids about violence. It is way out of control in society. That is why I donate my time to the youth where I live and teach them team basketball. 3x a week for about 5 hours at night under the lights.

     

    I have them doing something creative, not walking around bored.. Plus with my medical condition it isn't easy but nothing is in life. I feel good at the end of the night, or the next day when these kids come up to me and show respect. From 7 year olds to 19 year olds.

     

    This Country needs a wake up call for sure! The POTUS had a great chance to try and polarize this nation and he blew it, imo.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    I never understand why anyone pays Al Sharpton any mind although I understand the propaganda purveyors love to hate him. Wasted energy IMO.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    My son could have been George Zimmerman as well BS .He was defending himself from an attack by a teen on drugs. Have you ever been confronted by a ruthless teenager? A gun is the main reason that Pres. Obama is out there. Fast & Furious didn't get this much coverage by the lamestream media and their kool-aid drinkers.
    22 Jul 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    The thing is IT ,Trayvon was much more than a "Child" he was a young adult and has a history of violence and theft. His parents are still making money off of his tragedy. He was out of control and beat up someone who was scared and shot him in self defense.It's really that basic IMHO.
    22 Jul 2013, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    Al is a "Hater" in every way T FIVE ! And all those of his ilk. Divide and conquer is their mantra .
    22 Jul 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAKE

     

    I never said I hate him. I am just tired of his photo ops and doing NOTHING in 30 years to improve relationships within his own race or between races.

     

    He is one big joke. My opinion of wasted energy?. If you don't speak your thoughts that is wasted energy

     

    BTW, WELCOME to posting here. Time to move on !
    22 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ANY NEW INVESTORS INTERESTED IN THE PORTFOLIO EXERCISE??

     

    Coins, are you in?

     

    TAKE FIVE, Like to join us?
    22 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    One of the most inspiring speeches ever made was by Bobby Kennedy gave in Indianapolis the day Martin Luther King was killed. No riots in Indy, thanks to RFK's speech.

     

    I wish Obama would emulate RFK. Stop the violence....we all can agree on that.

     

    If you bother to listen to the police interrogation tapes with Zimmerman, you will get my point.

     

    The reason I speak to my son about atrocities like the one that occurred in Florida? Because I don't want him to get shot. We talk about what Martin should have done, how he could still be alive today.

     

    As a white person, it was many years before I realized just how good it is to be white. Especially in a country like ours.

     

    It's easy to blame Martin. Hard to understand (for me) why the h*ll Zimmerman ever got out of his car. If you listen to those tapes, you will learn a lot. Zimmerman was convinced Martin was a burgler. He took matters into his own hands. The cop who interviewed him (the male cop) did a good job interviewing him. By the way, Zimmerman never identified himself as "neighborhood watchman" to Martin. The cop asked him several times, why didn't he talk to Martin? Why did he follow him? If you haven't heard these tapes, you don't know the whole story.

     

    I agree Martin was wrong to fight. However, he was being harassed. Followed. Made to feel like a criminal. I don't know what Martin did. But I have listened to Zimmerman's own voice describing what he did that night.

     

    Ask yourself, if you were on neighborhood watch, what would you have done? Especially after calling the police, and they told you to stay in your car.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    listen to RFK's speech here

     

    http://bit.ly/132UieS
    22 Jul 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    I agree , Zimmerman should have never gotten out of his car. He was wrong when instructed not to. I also agree he felt bold having a gun as well. Was he wrong in the shooting? I wish we had those 4 minutes filled in and a law that would allow the jurors to convict him.

     

    But as I stated I felt the POTUS missed a great opportunity to just start a dialog that may have to take a decade to accomplish. But I do know my daughters generation thinks way different then my fathers. I might add my dad was far from a racist , growing up in the Bronx.

     

    Who knows maybe Martin wasn't wrong in fighting. Maybe Zimmerman instigated it. We just have too many if's MISSING AND THAT IS SAD.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    OK what do I need to do ? Give me the 100k and I'll make you some good profit,but it might be in paper money this week :) I told you I was working on a big deal at the end of July. When I buy it's normally physical ,including paper money. I have a client that is getting out of his paper money collection and we are getting some funds together for that. He has everything from $500 bills (FRN notes) from 1934 to a $ 10,000 note.I may have to sell some Gold to buy this collection,but you know how I am about Gold,it's only money :)
    22 Jul 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3379) | Send Message
     
    Obama is NO Bobby Kennedy
    http://bit.ly/1bXR7gk
    22 Jul 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    @ BlueSky

     

    A bunch of us discussed this same viewpoint the other weekend (the day of the verdict.) We all agreed, Zimmerman was far from "innocent," & it was just the lack of enough evidence that creates reasonable doubt.

     

    That Zimmerman's having the gun wasn't for protection, but was with ego involved.

     

    What's in this chapter is just a few strays left from the original conversation, so they may well be coming across out of context. You're kind of presenting to the peanut gallery here.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    I expect the POTUS to talk on this. I didn't hear the talk, so I can't comment on it. I know it couldn't have been riveting & effective at uniting the country, because I didn't catch a repeat even though I had the news on various channels later.

     

    I can't fault him for talking on the topic, considering it a problem in our nation, & it has national attention. (I hope he didn't put down the jurors or their decision at all - that'd be insulting to legal our system.) I'd hope he'd talk about the problem in general, & not lambast Florida law or the case itself. But I never saw it, so I can't comment directly.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    @ Bluesky

     

    Skipping through, I realized my comment about Zimmerman packing to make it easier for him to feel "strong" when he was being aggressive, I posted up above on this chapter -- Yep, i agree with you.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    IT: I would invest differently today than I would in the event of a 10+% correction where I would be looking for individual issues to buy.

     

    I do not currently own Pfizer, for example, but would consider buying it at less than $27. I might add to my Royal Dutch position at less than $63. I am more inclined to sell my position in MDT than to buy more at the current price. I am not buying any of my current holdings in consumer staples (Coca Cola, Unilever, General Mills and SYY) due to valuation.

     

    My approach is far more fluid than buying everything all at once. I will generally chop buy orders into small pieces and spread them out over time.

     

    If I was going to start fresh on Monday with $100,000, I would be gradually using volatility in certain income generating securities that have fallen significantly in price. I would be playing future alternate scenarios. In the less likely scenario, interest rates will stay about where they are now or even decline due to economic weakness and a decline in inflation. That type of scenario would be covered with a long term, fixed coupon, investment grade bond.

     

    I might look to buy a First Mortgage Bond issued by either Entergy Louisiana or Entergy Mississippi that are exchange traded bonds. Both have fallen significantly in price over the past two months and are now trading near par value and yielding about 6%.

     

    For a security that is volatile but underpriced currently compared to similar issues, I would consider buying SANPRB, an equity preferred floater that pays the greater of 4% or .52% above the 3 month Libor rate on a $25 par value. The security is discussed in my last blog published on Saturday and traded below $19 last Friday while similar issues from Suntrust and Zions were trading about 20% higher in price.

     

    I would consider adding, depending on the investor's tax bracket, either a taxable bond CEF or a tax free bond CEF. I have been buying one of those every week during the recent carnage. NPI is one that I have mentioned, and it is closed last Friday at a -9.31% discount to net asset value with a tax free distribution yield of 6.76% according to CEFConnect:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aj96Nu

     

    On the taxable side, I will be considering buying more of GDO at below $18. Last Friday it closed at a -10.55% discount with a 7.67% distribution yield and is weighted in investment grade bonds with a 2024 liquidation data and a relatively short weighted duration of 4.2 years as of 3/31/13, according to the Sponsor.

     

    http://bit.ly/170LDxT

     

    The Sponsor's webpage is linked at CEFConnect at the bottom right of the page.

     

    Given the volatility of bond CEFs with a profound downside bias, I am scaling into positions, particularly those that I liquidated earlier in the year.

     

    I have also been adding BDCs opportunistically, preferably after a decline associated with a share issuance, and the most recent add was PFLT after such a decline. I also added to PSCE and TICC after declines.

     

    In short, I am an opportunistic buyer and seller of securities. I may have one type of security on my buy list next week and another one two weeks from now.

     

    At the moment, the market is giving me decent values in bond CEFs but there is certainly more potential for downside action in the coming weeks and months if interest rates rise more after spiking up since May 1, 2013. I explained how I am currently balancing the risks and opportunities in those securities in Item # 4

     

    4. Added 70 of the Bond CEF BTZ at $12.63
    http://bit.ly/118eFux

     

    I will simply copy it here for anyone interested:

     

    For the next two years, and probably longer, I am not going to earn anything by keeping money in a money market account. My main taxable account has about 20% in cash earning nothing.

     

    I am trying to balance the desire for some income with the potential principal losses inherent in buying bond funds now. I have for now arrived at a balance where I will invest up to $1,000 per week in a bond CEF and reinvest monthly dividend distributions to acquire more shares. That balance was struck after considering the following items.

     

    (1) The declines in market prices for bond CEFs are substantially higher than the declines in net asset values per share, and the discounts now exceed the averages for 1, 3 and 5 years. As the price falls more than the net asset value, I increase my current yield with new purchases, and the yields are attractive in the current abnormally low interest rate environment.

     

    (2) Inflation expectations over the next 10 years remain low and would cap bond losses due to interest rate normalization provided that expectations remains close to 2% per year.

     

    (3) Short term borrowing costs are likely to remain low for several more years for two reasons. The FED is likely to continue ZIRP into 2015, which will anchor short term rates near zero, and will likely raise its federal funds rate much slower than in previous tightening cycles. So, the cost side of the interest rate spread is likely to remain favorable for leveraged bond CEFs for the next 2-3 years and possibly longer. I would add the usual caveat. I would not want to own a leveraged bond fund when both short term and long term rates are rising, particularly when the later increases are due to accelerating inflation and inflation expectations.

     

    The process of interest rate normalization will be difficult as I have noted many times previously.

     

    The Difficult Path to Interest Rate Normalization
    http://bit.ly/16IGJJI

     

    As long as bond prices are moving down and yields up, investors will continue to flee bond funds and bond CEFs in particular, placing additional downward pressure on pricing of bond CEFs that is likely to exceed the percentage decline in net asset value.

     

    That pricing action is a known risk for CEFs since the pricing is not dependent on the closing net asset value, which is the case for a bond mutual fund, but on the supply and demand factors characteristic of a common stock, with no mechanism available to bring price back into line with net asset value per share which exists for bond ETFs.

     

    The foregoing presents a risk but also an opportunity to acquire assets at discounts to net asset value per share, which increases the investor's yield compared to a bond mutual fund selling at net asset value, and the yield increases as the discount expands, just like buying a bond at a discount to its par value.

     

    The problem is that the discount can continue to widen after purchase which is then made worse by a concomitant diminution in net asset value per share. Leverage aids to the losses as the assets bought with borrowed money decline in price.

     

    Leverage adds potential risks and benefits. The benefits are a higher yield due to the spread between the short term borrowing cost and the higher yield paid by the bonds purchased with those borrowed funds and more of a net asset per share gain when the assets purchased with borrowed funds are increasing in value which has not been the case recently of course.

     

    The interest rate risk exists but is mitigated to some degree by the duration. Credit risk always exists for this fund, but is not as pronounced as a pure junk bond fund given the weighting in investment grade securities. (talking about BTZ is this last paragraph)
    21 Jul 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SOUTH

     

    I want to keep this as simple as possible, I really don't want you guys to go crazy over it. Like I said just start up a new portfolio ANYTIME in August and keep a dollar value in mind. I threw out 100k, maybe you guys who want to participate need more.

     

    I am open to anything !!

     

    Just looking for the logic behind the picks for the followers and the participants!
    21 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You know what. I AM IN !!

     

    I will join in and pick my portfolio stating is August with whatever rules you folks decide on !!
    21 Jul 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    IT: I would not do this with my own money but I am all in with your play money with the bond CEF GDO at last Friday's closing price of $18.06.

     

    This was traumatic for me to do, and I have already started counseling as a result. Normally I would buy 50 shares next week if the price went below $18.

     

    5,537 GDO Shares ($100,000 divided by $18.06=5537.098 shares)

     

    At the same time, I am entering a GTC All or None Limit Orders to Sell 1000 at $18.5 and another 1000 at $19. If those orders are filled I will then redeploy the proceeds elsewhere.

     

    The current monthly dividend is $.115 per share so I will be receiving $636.76 in monthly dividends unless I sell some. I will collect at least three dividends and then use the proceeds to buy something else.

     

    The goal is for the dividend to generate a 7.67% return and for me to make another 2.5% to 3%% trading the shares over the next year, possibly adding to that return with other buys.

     

    Rationale:

     

    The fund is lightly leveraged at 13.5%.

     

    The current dividend yield, paid monthly, is 7.67%.

     

    I am buying a $1 worth of bonds for 89.45 cents on the dollar.

     

    The duration is relatively short and that mitigates interest rate risk. The general rule of thumb is to multiply duration by the percentage increase in interest rates to determine the potential loss.

     

    The current discount to net asset value is 10.55%, much higher than the 3.27% 1 year average and the 4.63% three year average:

     

    http://bit.ly/170LDxT

     

    The portfolio is weighted in investment grade bonds. (click "portfolio characteristics" at sponsor's website)

     

    The 10 year treasury bond has settled down in the 2.5%-2.6% range.

     

    Bonds may catch some buying and rise in price after the release of the next GDP report which may even have a slightly negative number. That report is scheduled for release on July 31. That will be the first estimate:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/uNqQid
    21 Jul 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    NOPE, no buys until August ! lol

     

    We need to wait until we get the week day posters involved. Like Curls, Notrub, Richonsilver, Coins, Wmarkw, Tampat, and a few others.

     

    This way it is a good practice drill for all of us. Sorry but ya gotta wait until August and we finalize the rules.

     

    Hopefully some others will join in during the week with an OK I AM IN as well. This gives everyone a week to kinda test run anything they want and to keep within the starting budget.

     

    So keeps your secrets and post your picks in the CHAPTER that I will start within a few days!! INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO it will be called.

     

    But not before August !! hehe
    21 Jul 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    FYI, my last discussion of the bond CEF GDO was in a June 29, 2013 Post:

     

    4. Added 50 GDO at $17.58-Roth IRA

     

    http://bit.ly/118mHU3
    21 Jul 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Not disputing you bought it. Just for this game ALL picks have to be AFTER July 31 st !!

     

    Have to be fair to everyone who wants to participate.

     

    Now the big question. WHO VOLUNTEERS TO KEEP TRACK OF THE FEW PLAYERS we get?

     

    Come on someone volunteer!!
    21 Jul 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    IT: For clarification, are you saying that the shares have to be bought with real money and in the same amount ?

     

    And why after July 31st? I am ready now.

     

    I am not volunteering to track anything. I have enough trouble keeping track of what I own, and the securities that I may want to buy.
    21 Jul 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    What I am suggesting is only a 100k portfolio and that you cannot buy ANYTHING until August 1st. You can buy ONE stock or ONE HUNDRED as long as the total purchases don't exceed 100k.

     

    Did I explain it ok ? Now I know your anxious to get started but ya gotta wait until the gun goes off !!! (AUGUST).

     

    BTW. I am using the KISS METHOD as well. ( keep it simple stupid ) . So only a direct buy and sell or a stock, bond, etc. No covered calls, no margin either :)

     

    I understand if you don't want to keep track. Hopefully someone will step up...

     

    Busting chops is allowed as well !!!

     

    WERE PLAYING WITH MONOPOLY MONEY HERE. Just need to use a starting date and then you can pick the shares, and the lowest price of that day for all I care. Just post your moves on the NEW CHAPTER I WILL OPEN FOR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS!!

     

    No need to do all your purchases that day, you can wait all month long. In fact you can wait 3 months if you'd like. Some that will join in will use this as an exercise in deciding whether to buy , sell, or hold. So no you don't need to use real money...
    21 Jul 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    I'm game for portfolio games. Granted, I'll be doing it slowly...

     

    I'd like to include options & margins. Like to see how others incorporate them.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    No way to have margin allowed, and no options as if you bet the wrong way you get margin calls. So we are just going to keep it simple for now.

     

    I have PM'D a few people and on one believes anything that incorporates dividends reinvested on line is free..
    23 Jul 2013, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    You guys were talking about ammo shortages.
    Its true that ammo is mostly sold out due to the government-caused dislocation of resources (brass and bullets), and DHS is buying it up.
    Look at the "Out of Stock" on 9mm.

     

    http://bit.ly/1b68Ggj

     

    IT asks: "Now why is the government buying all of this ammo anyway?" (2 billion rounds)
    1. so the public won't have it
    2. reason two is a hard one to contemplate: If DHS is concerned with domestic threats, and we are not going to be invaded, who does that leave?

     

    Two billion rounds is over 6 rounds for each man, woman and child in the US,

     

    They won't answer questions from Congress about it either.

     

    http://bit.ly/1b68Ggn

     

    Investment idea: 357mag and 9mm reloading setup and make your own.

     

    PS. I won't be surprised if no one "likes" this comment.
    21 Jul 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    Sometimes I ask stupid questions on purpose !! ( wink wink )

     

    You got a like already :)
    21 Jul 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just changed the rules. I bought 100k on FRIDAY of (NUGT) lol

     

    Anyone seeing what gold is doing tonight?? Blew through $1300 easily !!
    21 Jul 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    I would be curious whether anyone has studied how well NUGT tracks its index after one day, such as over a six month holding period.

     

    Many of these double or triple short products substantially lose tracking over time. I highlighted in a previous comment the horrendous tracking of TBT, the double short for the long treasury bond.

     

    I just compared NUGT with GDX and it does not not appear to be a good track over two years, but I have not studied it:

     

    http://yhoo.it/135QL0e;range=2y;compare=gdx;...
    21 Jul 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    I am not sure either however I was warned by Schwab a few years ago that those triple ETF'S should not be used for long term trading !
    21 Jul 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    Times... trading OK, investing not OK. There's been some very good SA articles on this. Since I'm too dumb to do pooters and call girls, I'll use the double ETF's for short term hedging/insurance. Preferably, good diversity can serve much the same purpose though.

     

    I did pick up some SCO recently figuring maybe crude had gone too far (up). But just as important when I buy an inverse ETF "high" I see it as a great hedge should the market turn tail, even a good dip and it will help.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAKE

     

    You are correct. I just chose the wrong word to use! Long term investing is what I meant. Thanks for clarifying that !
    22 Jul 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I started a CHAPTER for all questions and rules for the INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO exercise..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Bookmark this if interested !!!
    21 Jul 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Finally I can sleep tonight ! The POTUS is going to fix the economy !!

     

    http://huff.to/15AArXp
    21 Jul 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5204) | Send Message
     
    Ah, the budget showdown. More silliness from the DC crowd. Expect the normal posturing and then at the last minute they'll come up with something. They have to wait until the last moment, otherwise their constituents will figure they gave in too easily (applies to both sides I'm sure).

     

    Now it they'd shut her down, I might have an investible event. Highly unlikely however.
    22 Jul 2013, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5145) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    Just The beginning of the DC crowd getting back in the forefront and likely to be catalyst for an overdue correction,

     

    Anyone notice how the market has done when this "circus act" is in the background and not gobbling up media attention. 
    22 Jul 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All I noticed is gold and silver popping this morning and a big miss by Micky D'S !!
    22 Jul 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    I guess my call of the bottom was rather timely eh? Too bad Seeking Alpha editors are so slow.

     

    Anyway, I sleep well at night. So do my clients. All of them.

     

    Out in the desert writing my next book IT. Will drop in when I can, but liking NUGT and USLV right now, but they have shot up pretty fast.

     

    Just checked the top headlines at CNBC. Not one mention of gold or silver for "Top News" except for a shipwreck where they found some silver, lol. Meanwhile, gold up 3% and silver up 5% today.

     

    NUGT only up 19% today.

     

    Hoping for F&G's pullback in gold. Then the release of my book. I think I have time. I don't think we're off to the races yet, but lots of things going on with the metals that make me wonder what's up next.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here's hoping TAMPAT, CURLS, COINS, and maybe TAKEFIVE joins in the portfolio exercise.

     

    As of now we have FEAR, SOUTH, IT, DEER, ....

     

    Hoping BLUESKIESFOREVER jumps in as well. I sent Eric Parnell a PM asking him to join in !!

     

    Should be a fun exercise for all . Spread the wod to anyone you would like.

     

    Markets look tired in my eyes. What do you professionals think?
    22 Jul 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3131) | Send Message
     
    IT: Are you in this portfolio challenge? Did you get my message about taking half of your NUGT at last Friday's close?

     

    Looking at NUGT's two year chart, it looks like one of those fun water slides that I enjoyed as a kid.

     

    There was a 1 for 5 reverse split on 4/2/13. Assuming Yahoo Finance adjusted correctly for that split, the split adjusted price on 9/6/11 was $201.9.

     

    The double and triple short and long products are invitations to disaster unless the investor can time their entry and exist points really well and keep the time period for the trade relatively short term.

     

    I own small lots of AUY, NGD and AUQ but mostly I play the bullion market in very long cycles. I was a seller in September 2011 of both gold and silver (previously provided links to posts showings sales), and I am neither a buyer nor a seller now.

     

    Inflation expectations embodied in the ten year note TIP price have been moving up slightly. I noted last month a daily closing price reflecting an expectation for an average CPI rate of 1.93% over the next year years.

     

    Last Friday, the number was 2.21% (break-even spread is the difference between the 10 year TIP yield and the 10 Year Nominal yield, and represents the average amount of CPI needed for the buyer of the TIP to break-even with the buyer of the non-inflation protected treasury:

     

    Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates
    http://1.usa.gov/yFD89A

     

    Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9
    22 Jul 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    Portfolio exercise sounds good. By August 1, we may be knee high into a good market dip. Today has been all over the place, and sideways. (MCD) (MSFT) (INTC) could be buying opportunities.

     

    This is a big week for earnings. Since (MCD) is off, maybe (SBUX) (DNKN) & (KKD) will all let some air out.

     

    The market is teetering at these highs. Without solid earnings to keep us up there, stocks will pull back.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    Glad your in !!

     

    Tampat came up with a great idea that we ALL have to pick our choices on Aug 1st. Which is a Thursday, hold until 12/31 and NO TRADING!

     

    I LIKE THE IDEA SO PLEASE COMMENT IN THAT CHAPTER..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    If possible I would like to know by Friday whose in. HOPING someone will do the stats on this as I am not that great on sites to put down maybe 10 portfolios and have that person give monthly updates . PLEASE PLEASE someone commit????
    22 Jul 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    Yup, I am in !! Also Tampat sent me a PM with a different idea for the portfolio.

     

    HE will post it in the Chapter. Like I said you folks make up the rules, I am going to plat as well. Usually I am preparing for my Fantasy Football League BUT WILL FIND TIME TO KICK BUTT here as well.

     

    I forgot to remind FREDDY as well.

     

    If I owned (NUGT) I would not be selling just yet !
    22 Jul 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    I have a core (NUGT) holding, and I am trading non-core (NUGT) and (DUST). I did not think gold would hold $1300, as it has been beaten down from that level several times, so I put small (DUST) position on last Friday - too early.

     

    If you are looking for daily moves - these guys will rock your socks.
    22 Jul 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    I hope you will join us in the PORTFOLIO EXERCISE..

     

    Winner gets a Tungsten gold painted bar from Ft. Knox !!

     

    Come on , commit. It will be easy and we have a chapter set aside for those who participate. Working out the kinks this week..

     

    Chapter 28 has the link in the blog!!
    22 Jul 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    Right Mark..."rock your socks," lol...
    22 Jul 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    Doug. I asked in another comment on another thread for thoughts on exchanging physical gold for physical silver at these Gold/Silver ratios. I would be interested in your thoughts on the matter. I do understand about premiums and transactions costs. But if negotiable and acceptable, where would you think a threshold ratio might be 70:1?

     

    I would also be interested on your thoughts about todays gold price move?
    22 Jul 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    WM, I think the 60/1 range is fine. Can't predict the exact top for the ratio, but I have been telling clients to buy silver over gold, and convert back when the ratio hits 35/1 in the future. Only a 1% fee, but mostly recommend this for IRA's, without tax issues. I don't view exchanging gold for silver a "like for like" tax free exchange.

     

    Today's gold move might be the short term blow off top, which is why I nibbled at some DUST late in the day. We'll see what Asia, Europe and tomorrow's opening brings.
    22 Jul 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10397) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the feed back, Doug.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4158) | Send Message
     
    "short term blow off top"

     

    What does this mean? A top that's then beaten down? It did break $1300 tonight. So is it going higher?
    23 Jul 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    Just meant $37 up in one day is not a normal move for gold, and thus the propensity might be for a reversal. This combined with the nice move gold and NUGT have had of late, I am playing this reversal with DUST. A more conservative play would be the inverse gold ETF's.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OPENED A NEW CHAPTER FOR INVESTMENTS. .time to move on !

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    No trivia but an opening question?? Hummm...
    22 Jul 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OOOooppps.... I forgot to call out USER and EXTREMEBANKER as well for the exercise. Join us ?
    22 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Referring to me User or another one?
    22 Jul 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yup you... Any interest ?
    22 Jul 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Okay.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11092) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    Great, we have a Portfolio chapter for ideas . If you have any please post them there..
    22 Jul 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
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