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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 30......... 197 comments
    Jul 28, 2013 2:02 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    Here is the link to the READING MATERIAL !!http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/1998262-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-reading-material

    HERE IS THE LINK TO THE PORFOLIO EXERCISE !!http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/2054352-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-portfolio-exercise

    HERE IS THE LINK TO THE CHAPTER WHEN THE PORTFOLIO CHALLANGE BEGINS AUGUST 1ST !! THE RULES ARE LISTED IN THE FIRST POST!!http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/2071992-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-portfolio-2

    HERE IS THE LINK TO THE CONSPIRACY CHAPTER THAT WILL SUPERCEDE CDC, WHO, MACRO, AND POLITICAL #2 !http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/2075322-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-the-conspiracy-2

    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Have a great day !

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Comments (197)
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let's get started. Anyone want to take a guess at the GDP number this week?
    28 Jul 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    My top question would be
    -- are there any good stock or gold or bond moves for this week
    --- that should hold up long term no matter what's reported this week?

     

    Also, how many currently still expect tapering
    1) in Sept?
    2) in Dec?
    3) not till next year?
    4) never
    5) some indeterminate surprise time smack in the middle of no where there.

     

    And one more question - what's your favorite way to figure out what reports are coming out during the coming week?

     

    @IT
    I have ....no....idea on the GDP.
    28 Jul 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    There will be no tapering anytime soon. Interest rates will still move lower. Treasuries will still get stronger and the dollar will still move higher by default (which can put some pressure on gold). The Japanese situation (debacle?) could push interest rates here negative for a short period.

     

    How much will the Japanese situation spread to Europe and the U.S.? Time will tell. But the IMF won't be there to bail out Japan. The two largest contributors to the IMF are the two largest debtor nations, Japan and the U.S.

     

    28 Jul 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Curls: My baseline scenario is that tapering will start in September 2013 and QE will end before 6/30/14.

     

    As with all scenarios, this is subject to change and an assignment of a probability range number.

     

    I would push the tapering out further with a poor GDP report on 7/31/13 and unemployment remaining at 7.6%.

     

    June Unemployment 7.6%:
    http://1.usa.gov/yN8Mkm

     

    If this upcoming first estimate for second quarter real GDP is close to 1% and unemployment falls to 7.4% by September, I would give very high odds to tapering starting in September.

     

    If the GDP is .5% or lower and unemployment remains at 7.6%, then tapering will not happen until those numbers improve.

     

    In the last analyst, whether tapering starts in September or November, and whether QE continues through the summer of 2014, is not relevant. QE will end and investors in both bonds and stocks need to adjust to that reality.

     

    ZIRP will likely continue well into 2015. This will keep interest rates for savers near zero. The FED tells us that there is almost $7 trillion stuck in savings accounts earning nothing.

     

    So, for the seniors out there waiting for relief and a return to normal rates on their risk free savings, this is not going to happen for at least two more years unless inflation takes a nasty turn to the upside.

     

    In addition, I would expect a slow pace of increases in the federal funds rate once the FED starts to raise that rate in 2015. The pace will likely be far slower than the rise between 1% to 5.25% between June 2004-July 2006. This means those saving account owners will not likely earn a real rate of return before taxes for least another 3 years. I would estimate sometime in 2017-2018.

     

    The FED wants all of us to take risks and will penalize those who insist on earning negative real rate of returns in risk free investments by continuing its Jihad Against the Saving Class which started in late 2008 for an "extended period of time".
    28 Jul 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    some remarks (not mine) from an article i read here on SA, pertinent to next week.

     

    Each week I prepare for action by considering what might happen and how I plan to react.

     

    For long-term investors, you should have a shopping list. When we get new accounts we implement long-term programs gradually. For those who have been in cash (or in poor holdings) you do not need to change everything on day one. Start by selling the worst positions and getting started with your "buy" list.

     

    The most important story might be the GDP report. If it is weak enough, the recessionistas will be out in force. After a two-month absence, we might even see an appearance from the ECRI. None of the important economic data series signal recession, nor do any of my best sources. That will not stop the doomsters if the report is weak enough. Since there are new measurements involved, there will be plenty of spin potential.

     

    Operating without a plan leaves you like a deer in the headlights. You will be unwilling to chase stocks higher on a rally and afraid to buy on a dip.

     

    Volatility is the friend of the trader, but it can be the same for the long-term investor. It starts with having a plan for action.
    28 Jul 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    GDP comes out on the 31st am I correct? That is the day OUR shopping list gets started. I believe they announce the figure during the day?
    28 Jul 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Yes July 31 @ 8:30 am
    28 Jul 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SOUTH or FEAR or FREDDY

     

    Would you mind breaking down this comment for us I *borrowed* from another article. It is too technical for me..

     

    Thanks.

     

    "I think you are correct to believe the FOMC Meeting Announcement - and any comments on tapering and the economy - and first reading of second quarter GDP will dominate the news next week. And as we speak, I believe the consensus estimate for second quarter growth is now at 1.0%, down from 3.0% a year ago.

     

    This stunning drop is about three times the average revision and may, or may not, reflect deteriorating internals.

     

    If the economy is to the realize the growth the Fed expects of around 2.5%, then quarterly growth in second half growth will need to be around 3.6% which looks increasingly unlikely given rising rates, the highly uncertain macro global backdrop and the mixed, if not dour, outlook of corporate CEO’s.

     

    While a bit of stretch, economic weakness may be starting to appear in corporate earnings which on the surface appear to be OK given the fact (meaningless) that of those companies who have reported 73% have beat lowered expectations. Further, the blended year-over-year earnings increase has improved from around 1% last week to 1.8% as of the end of the week. Why worry?

     

    First, only four of the ten sectors are reporting increases in earnings relative to a year ago, with financials taking the lead. Second, earnings growth (1.8%) continues to outstrip revenue growth of only 1.2%. And third, and as noted by FactSet, over the past four years the blended earnings increase has grown by approximately five percentage points from the end of the earnings quarter through the end of the reporting season but earnings increases are still only at 1.8%.

     

    Unless this changes, second quarter earnings reporting will finish with the third lowest earnings growth rate in the index during the past four years. As I have said before, I believe there is a subtle rebalancing taking place with earnings realigning with subdued global growth."
    28 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    I'll give u some quick thoughts on what u commented on, Maybe South if he has time will post in detail..

     

    Can't argue with GDP estimates , until we actually see what is reported , fair to say all estimates have been taken down as stated.

     

    Going forward , i believe it may be too early to tell how the second half will shape up. At this time i would disagree with the statement of the dour outlook of corp Ceo's for the second half.. In fact most have kept or increased guidance for that period. As time goes by we will see if they are right or wrong.

     

    The remainder of the comments deal with the "quality" issue of earnings. Questioning the "revenue" part of the equation. I have maintained this has been questioned going back to 2010. For me there has been enough revenue growth during this recovery to provide for record earnings for the S & P.. Others disagree that the "quality isn't there. .

     

    The GDP numbers may serve as another catalyst to spark a downturn in the markets. If so will it be a buying opportunity ? Keep in mind all of this is "history" . So with GDP being so poor in the second quarter as many predict & record S & P profits being attained in that time frame where might we go if the economy really starts improving ?
    28 Jul 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    There has been virtually no global slowdown. US Earnings are down 'cuz companies have been hiring back and that comes off the bottom line...
    28 Jul 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    F & G: The economy has weakened since the 2012 third quarter,and the recovery prior to that time would be fairly characterized as less robust than the typical recovery from a garden variety recession.

     

    The differences in real GDP growth in 2010-2011 compared to prior recoveries is a matter of concern, with a number of possible explanations.

     

    My father was a homebuilder. In every prior recession, his business plunged during recessions, the worst being 1974, and then picked up smartly during the recovery phase. He had retired before the latest bust.

     

    That kind of snapback rally from a recession can be seen in a long term chart of new housing starts:

     

    Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started
    http://bit.ly/HUzjHu

     

    The origin of the last recession was the housing bubble and everything associated with it. As shown in that chart, new housing starts have turned up but have not even returned to the low reached in 1974!

     

    So new home construction and everything that goes with it has not yet made the same kind of contribution to a recovery as in the past, and the reason is understandable. This is important. Housing is huge.

     

    The other industry that would normally contribute to a recovery, automobiles, is doing its part now.

     

    While I do not have time to get into a lot of detail, I would expect new housing starts to gradually make more of a contribution later this year and particularly in 2014, based on such data points as new household formations, the destruction of existing stock which is occurring in most major cities as foreclosed real estate, abandoned by the homeowner, has to be bulldozed down and other factors.

     

    Another reason is controversial but I believe it to be sound. In prior recoveries, the average rate on risk free savings was close to 5%. It is now close to nothing. If you apply a 5% annualized rate to the pool of risk free savings, the amount of income generated by that rate would now come close to $400 Billion per year more income which could be spent or saved. In 2009, a study was released that estimated that this loss in income from risk free savings was substantially reducing GDP through by reducing consumer spending:

     

    Study Summarized in the Big Picture Blog:
    http://bit.ly/YF81Ij

     

    In other words, there are significant downsides to the Fed's policies that are restraining natural GDP growth in a consumer led economy. Unfortunately, the FED is likely to continue ZIRP well into 2015.

     

    The increase in taxes, including the restoration of the payroll tax to previous levels, would cause some of the recent drag as well as the reductions in federal spending which will reduce GDP.

     

    There are long term forces that are coalescing to generate future growth but they are slow moving long term forces.

     

    One is the increase in consumer disposable income each month due to lower debt financing costs for their primary mortgage obligation. While that stimulus, and it is a stimulus, may amount to a few hundred per month, depending on the size of the mortgage and the difference in interest rates, it mounts up and will continue to increase consumer disposable income for many years to come.

     

    The Age of Leverage for American Households started roughly in 1985, which can be seen in long term charts of household debt to disposable personal income.

     

    The servicing cost of household debt is now at 1980 levels.

     

    Consumer debt has also come down from its peak highs as shown in the N.Y. Fed data.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cf6IZa

     

    As more underwater homeowners are able to refinance this year, due to either an increase in home prices or to HARP, the cost of their debt service obligations will decrease and their long term disposable rate after debt service payments will increase.

     

    The Federal Housing Finance Administration discloses monthly the total number of Fannie and Freddie refinances and the subset of those under the HARP program.

     

    The government is a little slow and the last report was for May 2013:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1cf6IZb

     

    From September 2009 through May 2013, Fannie and Freddie have refinanced over 17 million mortgages.

     

    That number would not include mortgages owned by private companies.

     

    And, just to keep things in perspective, the latest Census shows that 1/3rd of homes are owned free and clear in the U.S.

     

    How many here have refinanced their mortgages for 15, 20 or 30 years and how much was saved per month in interest costs?

     

    I do not have a mortgage but I thought about applying for a 30 year mortgage when the rate fell below 3.5%.

     

    Freddie Mac publishes historical rates since 1971.

     

    http://bit.ly/14Vx92B

     

    When I built my house in 1982, the average rate for that year on a 30 year was 16.04% with 2.2 points.

     

    As to a broader point, there are a lot of important data series that are pointing up. One of the most important in my opinion is the rapid rise in home prices toward trendline growth. For most Americans, their wealth is in their homes.

     

    The market is more interested in the future than in the past.

     

    The 1982 long term bull market started in August of that year when all of the numbers were awful. The economy was in a recession, interest rates were still high, as shown in that mortgage data from Freddie, inflation was hot, and so. But, the market looked forward and not backward. The rational investor, and there are a few who make every effort to take a balanced view of the evidence, saw that the FED was taking its foot off the economy's throat and inflation was coming down. As numbers started to be released in August, I concluded that the FED was in the process of ending its tightening cycle (federal funds were going down with CPI) and that Volcker had effectively tamed the inflation monster that had been bedeviling stock and bond investors for 16 years.

     

    I would expect bonds to react badly to a greater than expected GDP number and stocks will likely sell off some in the event of a zero to +.5% number.

     

    Stocks will need better economic data points, particularly on jobs and new housing construction, to pick up much steam for the remainder of 2013. Wild cards would be better than expected numbers coming out of Europe and Japan during the second half or worst than currently expected numbers from China.

     

    I noted in an earlier comment that I have been a net sellter of stocks over the past few months, but I have not made a significant downshift in that allocation. Most of those proceeds have gone into increasing my cash allocation.

     

    I believe that the market is ahead of fundamentals at the moment. A 10% to 15% correction would be healthy. If conditions improve in the second half, and particularly into 2014, I would feel more comfortable with another spurt up.

     

    IT views a 20,000 DJIA as ridiculous, having said that more than once. I expect to see that level hit no later than the end of 2016. While there are a lot of negative data points, as usual, there are a number of positive ones too.
    28 Jul 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    South,
    Thanks for the data & links, I agree with your conclusions that a good 10-15% correction is what is needed and would be best for the overall health of the market. . I too have been taking profits along the way , building up cash, as i view any correction of that magnitude as a chance to put some of that back to work in selected issues.

     

    First things first, let's see if the market cooperates and gives us a pullback.
    28 Jul 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR, SOUTH .. others

     

    Curls usually states that she thinks a correction of lets say 10% can be over in a few months, I am in the camp that a correction that large might actually take a year to just complete the 10% drop.

     

    Then it would take time for it to climb back up. It could stay at that stage for a while as well. Am I mistaken? I think we all need the definition of a crash and a correction and how long each can possibly take,

     

    Thanks,
    28 Jul 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Good question. I don't think we need to define correction vs. crash specifically (does it matter to something?).

     

    It'd be nice to hear from experienced folks, how long the movements down have taken. ... and how long in a range down there, and then to come back up.
    28 Jul 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    IT: You can have a 20+% decline in a day. You must have missed the October 19, 1987 crash, one of those Maalox and chill pill days as I recall.

     

    Black Monday Down -22.61% in the DJIA in one Day
    http://bit.ly/1aREUIB)

     

    The last major correction in the S & P was almost 20% and lasted between April 29, 2011 and August 8, 2011

     

    S & P 500 4/29/11=1363.61
    8/8/11 Close= 1119.46

     

    I have previously linked information to Doug Short's chart showing the 4 dips since March 2009

     

    Third Chart:
    http://bit.ly/nJLfB3

     

    The time periods for "corrections" are generally relatively short as shown in those charts. Generally, I would expect for most of the damage to be over in a few weeks, followed by a bottoming phase that will generally last longer for significant declines such as the May to August 2011 dip.

     

    I use the word dip on purpose. I have lived through so many dips and corrections that I have lost count.

     

    Corrections are generally characterized as 10% to 20% dips.

     

    At or near the start of a long term secular bear market, there can be something far more serious (almost 50% in 2000-2002; 86.2% 1929-1932):

     

    The Four Totally Bad Bears:
    http://bit.ly/S3fGSs

     

    Then you can have what I call a catastrophic phase in a long term bear market (September 2008-March 2009). No need to rehash that one.

     

    You can also have a whooper of a decline in a long term secular bull market which happened in October 1987 in one day, something analogous to the recent flash crashes.
    28 Jul 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    In this month's annual revision, BEA will be amending figures back to 1922 instead of 3 yrs to make the data more compliant with OECD standards approved in back in 2008. When Canada underwent this major overhaul in January, some quarterly data was amended up to 1.9% higher while others were downgraded -1.7%. On balance there was no change and the ability to do international comparisons was greatly enhanced.

     

    Baseline GDP is presently 2.2% according to my TRI model, but this baby can come in literally anywhere...

     

    GDP & SGDP outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
    28 Jul 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Q1 was unexpectedly reduced downward 0.7%. My March28th guidance chart was accurate for Q2.
    31 Jul 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    >IT-

     

    PM for you.

     

    WT
    28 Jul 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps another view on Japan,,

     

    http://nyti.ms/14pv3nl

     

    http://bit.ly/14pv3no
    28 Jul 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    GDP is still below 2% target. The concern about tapering should at least partially be offset by the reduced level of deficit spending due to sequestration. The summer doldrums will continue until after Labor Day. How's that for prescient, lol?
    28 Jul 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, for all those who think were hitting on all cylinders and the economy is cooking read this. 80% of Americans face poverty !!

     

    http://huff.to/12vKErh

     

    Let's see the response to this !!
    28 Jul 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    >IT-

     

    Not a response but something more to think about- An analysis of jobs hype.

     

    http://bit.ly/15pK50r

     

    WT
    28 Jul 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WIND

     

    A very interesting read for sure.

     

    Thanks!
    28 Jul 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10383) | Send Message
     
    For an informative report on saving for retirement and how poorly most (95%) are doing:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bLllFK
    31 Jul 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @WMARKW

     

    Are you joining us in the challenge??
    31 Jul 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10383) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, but no. More work than I can handle right now. Hope all goes well.
    31 Jul 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    We may need to make it clear that the forgoing discussion refers to Real GDP rather than nominal GDP.

     

    Real Gross Domestic Product,
    http://bit.ly/VeK1dl

     

    Gross Domestic Product
    http://bit.ly/13pC9rC

     

    The Real GDP number for the 1st quarter was +1.8% from the 2012 4th quarter:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y

     

    "Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 3.1 percent, or $120.0 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $15,984.1 billion. In the fourth quarter,current-dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent, or $53.1 billion."

     

    See Discussion Moody's Analytics:

     

    http://bit.ly/13pC9rD

     

    Real GDP was trending over 2% on an annual basis in 2010 and 2011 and for the first three quarters of 2012:

     

    http://bit.ly/JER9ci

     

    Real GDP started to slow below that 2% trendline starting in the 2012 4th quarter.
    28 Jul 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    Now compare the GDP trend line with that of the TYT looking back 3 years, while at the same time reflecting on the standard precaution "past performance does not guarantee future performance."

     

    http://on.mktw.net/16P...
    28 Jul 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Take out the reporting period noise and Real GDP has climbed steadily from April 2011 (0.1%) to June 2013 (2.2%), reflecting the gradual expiry of the -1.6% rising oil price headwind. The last few months of declining crude prices actually provided a 0.4% headwind in April ... but that's gone today.

     

    Using round numbers, a $100 billion move in the Deficit will move GDP by 1% so nobody knows how 2H13 will end up 'til the Debt Ceiling negotiations are complete. Status quo gives a 3.1% crest in January...
    28 Jul 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FOLKS, PLEASE TAKE NOT THAT I HAVE EXPANDED THE CHAPTER THAT STARTED OUT ON THE CDC AND WHO TO A LARGER DISCUSSION. I SINCERELY SUGGEST YOU STOP IN AND READ UP ON WHAT IS BEING DISCUSSED SO THAT MAYBE NEW COMMENTS ABOUT THIS IDEA CAN BE LEFT THERE.

     

    THIS WAY IT IS OUT OF THE INVESTMENT CHAPTERS, THOUGHTS LIKE 9/11 WAS MASTERMINDED, VACCINES, ETC.

     

    Books have been mentioned to buy on kindle and it has struck a chord in me. I already ordered two of them. The above blog gives the site to take a peek,

     

    Thanks !!
    28 Jul 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    You're saying to take note of the separate chapter you created on the CDC medical issues & other topics?
    28 Jul 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    YES, here is the link if anyone wants to discuss political issues, marco ones, or the CDC AND WHO as well. This way the investment chapters don't get bogged down. Trying this as an experiment to see if it gets any reponses
    28 Jul 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So I am going out on a limb and saying we trade in a tight range until the GDP number is announced..

     

    But gold seems to be holding up so far !!
    29 Jul 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    IT, savvy investors are trading on their expectations for GDP, revenues & earnings in Q3 & Q4. Q2 was over four weeks ago and this week's announcement will mainly prompt sector volatility to be played by daytraders...
    29 Jul 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FREDDY

     

    Are you in for the portfolio challenge? I don't think I noticed any post either way..
    29 Jul 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, gotta stick to model updates thru this Q3 volatility. And I've been told to clean up my website some more...

     

    But if I was aboard and had time for due diligence, I'd probably be puttin' my hundred gran' on Blackberry and a couple of other Canadian small caps.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY

     

    OK, No problem...
    29 Jul 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1003) | Send Message
     
    Freddy:
    >And I've been told to clean up my website some more...

     

    I know I was in that crowd (or was it just me?). I meant no offense. You've got so much good information there, it's a shame if people "prejudged" the site. But beggars (me) can't be choosers, right? Regardless, I appreciate your contributions. And the site looks better already!

     

    As a fellow Canadian, I'd be interested in hearing who your small cap picks are.
    29 Jul 2013, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    american vanadium (avc) & enwave (enw)
    30 Jul 2013, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1048) | Send Message
     
    Freddy

     

    I am invested in the Canadian Warren Buffett, Prem Watsa's company (FRFHF.PK) and I believe he is big on Blackberry
    31 Jul 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Being from Woodstock, it was natural to attend the two Waterloo universities. Stayed 25 years and so know alotta the folks down there. They have an excellent business plan but I expect most money to be made will be via a mega-merger.
    31 Jul 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3357) | Send Message
     
    Isn't it Warren and Soros buying up Herbalife ?
    1 Aug 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Good lord, I finally found the volume on Scottrade's charts.

     

    It's under indicators - then lower indicators - then scroll down to the non-visible choices, and there are a volumes selections...

     

    Now what to tell from volume these days?
    RSI is trending down.
    29 Jul 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Tired market - some correction coming?

     

    What was that sell down. Then buyup at the end? Any witching days?

     

    My sense of day traders got in, in the middle of the day -- then out at the end.

     

    Some of the suggested ideas on here, did well today in spite of the overall!
    29 Jul 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    What up and down today? Maybe I missed it but all I saw was RED all day long !!

     

    Markets are waiting for that GDP number !
    29 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    It started out heading way down. Then paused, and climbed for several hours.

     

    Then turned down again, then rapidly so - large red candlesticks. I've noticed those post 3pm strong moves seem to indicate something.
    29 Jul 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All I can add is what Art Cashin said a year ago. Everything before 3pm is posturing, day traders, but the action AFTER 3pm is the professionals going to work !!
    29 Jul 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wow...Everyone is quiet today for some reason.. I guess all are sitting on the bowl cracking under the pressure ??

     

    Not me ... LOCKED AND LOADED !!

     

    We all start to be nice and then we stop posting? Ok FEAR( sorry pal) do you plan on buying anything this week or meekly going to sit and wait for that perfect value stock ?? I hear you are contacting editors from SA for help? Is that true??
    29 Jul 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Yes , i was hoping to keep that quiet but it appears someone slipped - LOL

     

    I'm looking around , but don't see much in my "buy" range. Most of that opinion comes from a feeling that we will get that elusive correction and can buy cheaper.. so far, it hasn't happened...

     

    It seems that way for a lot of those who are overall positive on the markets. I talked to a lot of money managers in the past few days , most are cautious . This time of year is usually "dull" , so if most are cautious now , drifting lower from here may be the path of least resistance.
    29 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    From a short term perspective, Fed meeting too, so difficult to take a stand on anything. With the 10 year at 2.5% or so, I don't think they will utter the word "taper." I think they will just keep things status quo and not spook the markets. I personally don't see a volatile day tomorrow like we usually have when they speak.

     

    I wanted to buy some DUST today and would have made a buck on it, but I don't think it's smart to do before meetings.

     

    In other news, and I'm not a conspiracy guy, "Federal energy regulator accuses JPMorgan of manipulating electricity market." http://cnb.cx/14er8kn

     

    I did write an article how JPMorgan was more involved (volume) in the gold market than ever before. So this doesn't come as a surprise to anyone I'm sure. Especially after Libor.
    29 Jul 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    Have you seen this article on the potential increase in silver demand from China?

     

    A (Photovoltaic) Silver Bull in China

     

    http://bit.ly/1549vmv
    29 Jul 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOT ME !! I have my strategy down pat. Wish I had the nerve to use real money. Oh that's right we don't have that anymore anyway. I think we now call it fiat??
    29 Jul 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JP Morgan and NOW electric. What haven't they messed with?
    29 Jul 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    Thanks tampat...definitely something to consider!
    29 Jul 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR

     

    Here's my plan, (keep it a secret). I am planning on taking my fiat money( monopoly money) to the horse track to try and double it quickly. If I get a 25% return quickly tomorrow I might call it a day and basically start off the challenge with 125k.

     

    It that within the rules??
    29 Jul 2013, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Only if u let me in on that "sure thing" at the track :)

     

    A 25% return and u will be declared the winner
    30 Jul 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ F&G

     

    Hey, hey I'm going to win... now that I know SG's secret of picking the ones near the right big toe, instead of the silly method I've been using all these years, near my left pinky toe.

     

    It's all about fundamentals, not TA. Or it's all about TA, not fundamentals. Or it's all about... I'm confused now.
    30 Jul 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    China, India, EZ, PMs, Japan and US economy

     

    http://bit.ly/1c7Paj5

     

    Everything you wanted to know about World economics and where we are headed. Remember 1987?

     

    Also posted on Chap. 29

     

    WT
    29 Jul 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    WT, thanks for sharing...

     

    Why would the Japanese dump a good asset? (U.S. Treasuries)

     

    They will dump all Yen assets first. I see the dollar stronger (by default) and an increased demand for U.S. treasuries (perceived safety) and lower interest rates (stronger treasuries).

     

    This doesn't mean the U.S. Treasuries will be good forever.

     

    As far as their comment that gold can't be manipulated, see what JP Morgan is accused of doing today with electricity.

     

    The rest of what he writes on China I agree with, but don't expect interest rates to shoot up like that any time soon. This will play out slower than most think. Japan took 20 years! We will see how things play out in Japan and I'll be observing if the Fed learns anything from it.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    >Doug-

     

    I wondered about dumping treasuries rather than yen instruments as well and came to the assumption that treasuries would take a bigger hit in a rising rate market.

     

    JPM and Goldman are in the limelight now for their nefarious dealing with commodities so maybe they will move backstage for a while.

     

    Japan's devaluation of the yen is a desperation move by Abe to create a stronger demand for Japanese exports. Their demographics with a steadily aging populace needs outside money to jump start the economy and China may not provide the necessary juice.

     

    Unfortunately for them the other major players are playing the same game. With enough waves being created the end-all result could be the perfect storm that produces a major world wide deflation.

     

    WT
    30 Jul 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    WT, I am with you, especially on the last 3 paragraphs.

     

    The interest rate picture is something that we here in the U.S. can't allow to get out of control, as evidenced by the retracement by 3 Fed Board members shortly after Bernanke mentioned tapering.

     

    So tomorrow's Fed meeting announcement, to me, will say absolutely nothing, be as vague as can be and just say we will continue to do the $85 billion. The market should be quiet afterwards.

     

    Rates are already pushing 2.60 on the 10 year. At some point, should rates move any higher, they will possibly increase the $85 billion amount.

     

    They have no choice IMO.

     

    Cheers...off to enjoy 48 hours off from writing!
    30 Jul 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    I thought that I would throw the bears a bone.

     

    Someone here referenced a new book by Meban Faber that was available for a short time at Amazon for free. I downloaded the book at that time and did not read it until tonight.

     

    It now costs $4.99 for the Kindle Edition.

     

    http://amzn.to/11qWsbM

     

    Faber points out that the 10 year inflation adjusted return for the stock market is not very good when the Shiller P/E 10 ratio is over 17, its long term historic average.

     

    The Shiller P/E 10 is now about 24.58 according to this website:

     

    http://bit.ly/QqZ06c

     

    If you do not want to buy the book, he points to the same kind of data in this paper that can be downloaded at SSRN for free:

     

    http://bit.ly/W6H9zb

     

    See Particularly Figure 2 in that Paper

     

    I have also compiled a list of SA articles critiquing the Shiller 10 P/E to create a balance here:

     

    http://bit.ly/17cydNd

     

    http://bit.ly/YPax15

     

    http://bit.ly/17cydNe

     

    Liz Ann Sonders AT Schwab:
    http://bit.ly/15s7wGa

     

    In addition, the market is forward looking and the past ten years includes earnings from the worst downturn since the GD.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @SOUTH

     

    I saved 4 bucks huh? No a bad deal. I hope your weeding out your selections as THE day is approaching real fast.

     

    Hook up the IV as some are planning on taking you to the cleaners..

     

    Freddy is too busy while I know FEAR is studying is butt off right now.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    IT: I have developed a full proof system. I wrote 30 symbols on separate pieces of paper, said a prayer and thanked the Lord for being all powerful and merciful, placing my fate in his hands, threw the paper wads into the air, and selected the 10 that fell the closest to the big toe on my right foot.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SOUTH

     

    That'll work. It has for 4 years now !!
    29 Jul 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    Thanks South...I think I downloaded that one too, but haven't got to it yet.

     

    Cheers!
    29 Jul 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    SG

     

    LOL. That'd probably work as well as my system -- I select the ones that land closest to the pinky toe on my left foot.

     

    Thanks for the info & links.

     

    @Windwoodtrader

     

    Thanks for that link too.
    29 Jul 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3357) | Send Message
     
    LOL :)
    30 Jul 2013, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    I still go to the "rent a monkey " store nearby , (its next to mailboxes,etc. ) bring him in , he throws the darts & i write about them a my best picks ... :)
    30 Jul 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    I have followed Liz Ann Sonders for quite a while. I view her analysis as being detailed and objective.

     

    Since I can't display a chart here , I provided some commentary and a simple chart that indicates the correlation of earnings to S & P price action.

     

    Warning: It does contain bullish commentary therefore may be offensive to some and may not be suitable for all audiences, However for those that are still curious , scroll down & look at the picture - it tells a compelling story.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    F & G:

     

    The monkey can work as an alternative to that "rational" man.

     

    Back in my freshman year at Tulane, I was taking a biology course and the professor gave us a really hard multiple choice exam. The professor looked dejected when he brought back the test papers with grades. He noted that a monkey in the lab, who could use a pencil, outscored more than 50% of the humans, or so he claimed. I sort of doubt it, maybe 30% tops.
    30 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Earniings have been strong. Especially in light of current interest rates. Has anyone done an analysis of interest rates compared to PE ratios? Looks like there should be some correlation there. It would seem logical the market could expand the PE ratio based on current rates.
    30 Jul 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    "Warning: It does contain bullish commentary therefore may be offensive to some and may not be suitable for all audiences"

     

    Nah, none of us bears ever take offense to bullish commentary, lol, so were just waiting to see all that 100k put to work since were in a bullish mode yes?

     

    Markets look real bullish to me right now.. LOCKED AND LOADED !

     

    BTW. having a decent day at the track !!
    30 Jul 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SAY IT AIN'T SO !!!

     

    FERC accusing JPMorgan of electricity price manipulation
    The energy regulator alleges JPMorgan engaged in "eight manipulative bidding strategies" in 2010-11 aimed at getting electricity providers in California and the Midwest to overpay.

     

    The WSJ previously reported JPMorgan is expected to settle with FERC for $410M + the relinquishing of ~$200M in unpaid electricity claims.

     

    FERC recently ordered Barclays and four of its traders to pay $487.9M over alleged price manipulation that took place from 2006-08.

     

    Are the wheels coming off or is this part of the strategy? Think outside the box on this one!!
    29 Jul 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    I certainly understand why anyone who looks at this chart would think inflation is right around the corner. Government debt has gone parabolic. It has moved from about 65% of GDP in 2008 to over 100% now.

     

    http://bit.ly/130gE1N
    30 Jul 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    There are a number of forces in place at this time to restrict inflation. One is consumer debt. The consumer has been cautious since 2008 and Americans have deleveraged their personal balance sheets.

     

    http://bit.ly/MiNM1D

     

    http://bit.ly/X6wZju

     

    Although consumer sentiment has improved since 2008 it still remains at the low end of the range.

     

    http://bit.ly/130hw6v
    30 Jul 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: Let's not forget that there is certainly no labor shortage except in a relatively small number of skilled jobs.

     

    Labor unions have lost a great deal of their clout.

     

    Wage increases are struggling to keep up with low CPI increases.

     

    Doug Short has a number of charts showing nominal and real increases in wages:

     

    http://bit.ly/16z7qvt

     

    There is certainly a very large pool of unemployed workers and another large pool who are working part time involuntarily.

     

    Based on the last BLS report, there were 11.8 million unemployed and 8.2 million involuntary part time workers because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full time jobs:

     

    Employment Situation Summary
    http://1.usa.gov/yN8Mkm

     

    There is just a lot of slack, whether you look at low capicity utilization or low labor participation rates and worker surplus.

     

    I would disagree with you slightly that the plunge in the DSR ratio back to 1980s is a restraint on inflation. Households who have refinanced mortageges at low rates will have a build up in disposable income that will enable them to spend more without incurring additing debt. The level of disposable income will increase with wage increases and increases in income from savings once the Fed ends ZIRP and QE. I view that trend, a slow moving one, as potentially inflationary.

     

    The market is forecasting a benign 2.15% average inflation rate over the next ten years, based on the 10 year TIP break-even spread, well below the long term average in the U.S.
    30 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    SOUTH:

     

    I certainly agree that the labor pool is a substantial hindrance to inflation. I prefer to look at total unemployment which is still at very high levels.

     

    http://bit.ly/1caqpCJ

     

    All of these reasons justify the actions of the FED in recent years, IMHO. Business income is good with the S&P earning over 100 dollars per unit. Our current PE is very reasonable when compared to current interest rates. I believe the FED will be easy for the near future. The one unknown could be who replaces Bernanke.
    30 Jul 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    Capacity utilization is anothe reason inflation has remained in check. I live in the Southeast and one does not have to travel far to find vacant plants that have been for sale for a long time with no prospects of reopening. If you draw a trendline across the top data points of this chart, you will see the trend is down.

     

    http://bit.ly/SEYIV6
    30 Jul 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ ExtremeB

     

    Interesting analysis.... to see what's keeping that debit in check from causing inflation. One had to be wondering :).

     

    Get GDP moving up, and debit becomes a smaller % again.
    30 Jul 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    "Get GDP moving up, and debit becomes a smaller % again."

     

    curls,

     

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis has it covered (the unit of the Commerce Department that measures G.D.P).
    Effective this week:

     

    "It plans to give a greater economic weighting to the creation of many types of intellectual property - from books to movies to music to biotech drugs. The economy won't change overnight, but the numbers will. Going all the way back to 1929, the G.D.P. will look bigger."

     

    "Hmmm ... so at a time when the state of the economy remains a big, fat question mark, the guys running the numbers appear to have decided to change the rules of the game. And just what are they adding back into the GDP equation? Oh that's right, the almost impossible to define area of intellectual property. This would be bad enough if we were talking solely about the IP involved with the development of technology, medical devices and/or biotechnology. But believe it or not, the government has decided to also include "entertainment, literary and other artistic originals." For heaven's sake, does anybody else's mind instantly jump to the punch line of the famous joke involving "three kinds of lies?"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Jul 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    These changes bring the USA into harmonization with the rest of the OECD and were approved way back in 2008. I understand most everyone else has implemented this measure to better make international comparisons. My work has revealed no general net change to GDP. Some quarters are higher ... some lower.
    30 Jul 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    Demographic population changes are another factor that is keeping inflation down. There are some economists who believe that there are only two primary ways to grow an economy. Increase population and productivity. Our population is growing slower than years ago. The birth control pill and legal abortion have taken a toll on our economic society. The Catholic church figured out centuries ago that an increasing population was beneficial and therefore banned birth control. The primary shift in demographics is our aging population. The baby boomers fed our economy during their productive years and now they will be a drain for a number of years to come. Thousands are retiring every day from productive work to non productive retirement. Our population over 55 was 16% of the population in 1960 and over 25% today.

     

    http://bit.ly/16z1nXS
    30 Jul 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    IMHO, the statistic or chart that bothers me the most is the velocity of money.

     

    http://bit.ly/16z94gK

     

    This statistic has been in a serious downtrend since the late 90's. This represents the demand destruction that has occurred within our economy. This impacts our economic multiplier and shows why all of our government stimulus has little impact on our economy. So why has this changed so much?

     

    IMHO, there are two reasons for this change. One is that banks had to reduce leverage in the second half of the decade and needed to build reserves and this had a substantial impact. The other reason I see is the loss of manufacturing in the U.S.. I really don't have any way to prove these two opinions but real imports has been increasing substantially.

     

    http://bit.ly/16z94gM
    30 Jul 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Without immigration, our population would be in decline, for decades. Immigration is the only way to keep our economy growing. According to my husband, there are millions of available jobs in high tech. Ford is trying to hire (in Detroit!) engineers/computer engineers & can't find enough qualified applicants. For years, the number of students studying electrical & computer engineering fell in this country. This was because all the major tech companies were opening offices in China, India, Ireland etc. Now there is a reverse trend, with all these companies hiring here in the US, hence the need to allow these high qualified folks to get visas so they can move here. There just aren't enough Americans to fill these jobs, so we need them. These highly trained immigrants will pay taxes, buy stuff & contribute to our economy.

     

    My husband is an immigrant. He worked for over 20 years as a researcher & took high tech products to the market place. He had over 100 people working for him on his last big project. Guess what? You could count on one hand how many were American citizens. This is because most Americans do not get Ph.D's in electrical & computer engineering. We need those foreign students to come here. The vast majority of them stay, and contribute to our economy. This also keeps the US in first place when it comes to innovation.

     

    If you want to see what happens to a country that is not friendly to foreigners, check Japan.

     

    From the beginning it has been immigrants that made the US great. That will never change.
    30 Jul 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    Blue Sky:

     

    You have named one of the things that can help us with our economic problems. It is obvious that Americans are having less children so the only reasonable solution for population growth is to improve our immigration policies. American racism is very prevalent in our immigration policies and needs to be improved. This is one of the answers to make our economy grow faster.
    30 Jul 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: The decline in the velocity of money is related to the vast increase in money caused by QE. M2 has increased at a faster rate than the percentage decline in M2 velocity.

     

    Data M2 Money Stock (in billions of dollars)
    3/30/2009= $8329.9
    7/15/2013= $10698.8
    Up +28.44%
    http://bit.ly/10TIn2J

     

    Data on M2 Velocity:

     

    4/1/2009: 1.657
    1/1/2013 (last Reading)=1.530
    Decline 7.66%

     

    http://bit.ly/16OP2Dr

     

    When looked at in this light, velocity would be moving up with far less M2 money being added to the economy.

     

    The increase in M2 is a by product of the FED's QE and related money printing. The purpose of QE now is to keep intermediate and long term rates at abnormally low levels. The implementation requires money creation to buy the securities. That excess money supply is not needed in the real economy and consequently does not show up in the velocity of M2. This is why money creation did not cause inflation. The new money is not circulating, but remains stationary wherever it first lands (or moves in a way not captured by the FED's velocity of money calculation).

     

    30 Jul 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    I agree with your assessment but I think you are talking about the sympton and not the disease. Why is the money not being used? Usually, when you offer someone money at extremely low interest rates they will borrow and use it. Not really happening this time.

     

    I really don't understand why but I believe, just an opinion, the factors I pointed to have some impact. It is unusual for the country to not have demand for money. The FED has made plenty of money available at very cheap prices.

     

    Respectfully,
    30 Jul 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: It is simply the sheer quantity of money creation associated with QE. Some of that new money is circulating in the real economy.

     

    There are other reasons why more of the excess is not being absorbed in the real economy. Bankers are still tight with the money. You may be able to provide more insight on that topic.

     

    One reason why most of the excess is not been used involves the narrow spread between the cost of money and the abnormally low loan rates, reflected in the still low net interest margin. Why assume a lot of risk when the net interest margin is so low?

     

    In that sense the Fed's QE policy is hurting the economy now by restraining the use of that excess money in the real economy. The banks can earn a risk free rate of return by keeping their funds on deposit at the Fed.

     

    http://bit.ly/16hh0VL

     

    This could change rapidly (and has started to change already) as intermediate and long term rates start to increase with the market anticipating an end to QE.
    30 Jul 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    EB, both manufacturing and goods exports are at record levels so you cannot attribute this to problems with money supply. Money parked on the sidelines (and MS volume & velocity) has very little to do with QE and much more to do with the corporate world being fearful of socialist leanings (aka Progressives) in the White House, Congress and the likelihood of more judicial activism with new appointments.

     

    The tipping point for the US's own austerity crisis is ten years away but business realizes the electoral system is vulnerable to demands for expanded entitlements now that over 50% of eligible voters pay no income tax. This scenario will be hastened should conservatives lose the House of Representatives some day...
    30 Jul 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    The non interest expense of my peer group has historically been around 3%. Keeping money on deposit with the FED at .25% is a good way to go broke. That is why we and others are diligently looking for good loan customers. Money is plentiful and cheap but it is difficult to put to work at any kind of decent yield. Income investments such as agencies or treasuries are not going to cover basic expenses. Good borrowers are scarce. I agree that banks are tighter today than 5 years ago but many have solved their asset quality problems. Yes refinancing has been huge but that does not put new money to work other than what is saved by the consumer. It is better in higher growth areas but not so nationwide. Commercial activity is still weak.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZIp0fY

     

    This chart shows another long term downtrend.
    30 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1048) | Send Message
     
    BlueSky

     

    I agree with you about the PhD; I believe there is already a brain drain in this country with many technical high degreed personnel going back to their countries like China and India where the pay is 40%-50% as here; I am an engineer but I told my son not to get in engineering because it is not as prestigious area like before.
    30 Jul 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I have to disagree that 3% is a historical net interest margin.

     

    The net interest margin is really low now by historical standards:

     

    Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks
    http://bit.ly/WbVzih

     

    If a banker can make a net interest spread of 4%, the wallet is going to open up more than at 3%.

     

    While the loan loss ratio to total loans is coming down, it is still high.
    http://bit.ly/1e8UY8F

     

    A far faster way to go broke is to make a lot of bad loans when net interest margins are low.

     

    Maybe you can explain to me the difference in the chart that you linked and this one:

     

    http://bit.ly/11Q0M1C

     

    ********

     

    Freddy: I just do not buy into your argument that U.S. businesses fear creeping socialism as a reason for holding $5+ trillion in cash. Corporate chieftains always find excuses and Washington is just of the many convenient ones.

     

    I would agree with Warren Buffett on this one when he made the following statement:

     

    I noted in the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report a thinly veiled criticism by Buffet who noted that he was spending to expand the operating businesses owned by Berkshire.

     

    http://bit.ly/10R7CTT

     

    He refers to CEOs who cried "uncertainty when faced with capital allocation decisions, "despite many of their businesses having enjoyed record levels or both earnings and cash". Buffett noted that "we didn't share their fears, instead spending a record $9.8 billion on plant and equipment in 2012". (page 5).
    30 Jul 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    "Extreme: I have to disagree that 3% is a historical net interest margin"

     

    If you reread my comment you will note I stated the "non interest expense" of my peer group has historically been 3%. This was in response to your comment "The banks can earn a risk free rate of return by keeping their funds on deposit at the Fed".

     

    "The net interest margin is really low now by historical standards"

     

    Net interest margins are as you say, extremely thin which is why loans are so attractive. They offer the best potential for yield.

     

    "If a banker can make a net interest spread of 4%, the wallet is going to open up more than at 3%."

     

    A ROA of 1% is pretty good for a bank but they also make fees or non interest income.

     

    "While the loan loss ratio to total loans is coming down, it is still high.
    http://bit.ly/1e8UY8F"

     

    I agree but good income is the best way to offset loss.

     

    Bad loans are the cause of most bank failures. Bad loans are no good regardless of the rate you get.

     

    I noticed the difference in the chart posted by F&G and the chart I posted. I am not able to explain the difference.
    30 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I have asked several people here at SA for about a year now to explain the difference in two charts and no one has an explanation.

     

    The total value numbers are different. The one that you reference is at 80,441 in millions of dollars, which is higher than most of the values during the 2002-2007 expansion but lower than the values from the mid-1990 to 1999 expansion, suggesting that another issue may be involved in the decline from the 1990s such as another source other than banks for the loans (e.g. bonds, etc)

     

    I multiplied 80,441 by 1 million and came up with this number:

     

    $80,441,000,000

     

    The other chart shows a good recovery in loans to $1.557.0906 trillion, much higher than the 1992-1999 period.

     

    This is a large number:

     

    $1,557,090,600,000 (trillion + $$)

     

    Assuming I did those conversions right, which is far from guaranteed given my extreme level of math deficiencies, the chart showing a nice pick up in loans would seem to be a more inclusive and a better reflection of total C & I loan demand.

     

    As to loan losses, it would seem to me to be relevant on the amount of net interest margin. I can not speak for bankers. But I would take more risks at a 4% net interest margin than one that is slightly over 3% and falling, particularly when intermediate and longer term rates are likely to increase as the FED tapers and then ends QE. The narrow interest rate margin would make me more cautious with the selection of my loan customers.

     

    Some of what I am arguing is reflected in this SA article written by Francis Coppola:

     

    http://bit.ly/121iXVa

     

    I will generally try to select banks with a ROA greater than 1% and a ROE of greater than 10%.

     

    I just updated by regional bank holdings.

     

    http://bit.ly/12CKizc
    30 Jul 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    South:
    Our approach which is not exclusive is to increase rates with higher risk. For example, a 5 year arm has more interest rate risk than a 1 yr arm so the 5 year has a higher rate.

     

    A customer with a 650 beacon will be charged a higher rate than a customer with a 800 beacon.

     

    My point is given choices between investments with very low yields or loans with substantially higher yields the best way to increase net interest margin is to allocate more funds to loans.

     

    The increase in rates for additional risk is to offset the additional loan loss reserves required for higher risk loans.

     

    The article you referenced has some points but I am a country banker and I would simply sum it up by saying the FED can't create"demand" for money just by making it available.

     

    I have looked at your website numerous times and I have tried to review some of your holdings but I click to enlarge the screen and it does but is way to small for me to read. I have corrected 20-20 vision so I don't think it is my eyesite. I enjoy reading your stuff and don't want to be critical but I just can't read it.
    30 Jul 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    eb, your graph shows commercial loans are up 21% from last year. What's your point? You stated activity was weak...
    30 Jul 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    Freddy:

     

    Activity has improved in the last 12 months but it is from very low levels. Based on this chart C&I loans are roughly 57% of what they were in 1997. The long term trend is also down. If you draw a trendline from the highpoint on the upper left to the high point in the lower right corner you will see a long term downtrend.
    30 Jul 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    sg, your graph is monthly and reveals a 9% growth rate in loans over last year. eb's chart is quarterly...

     

    Not sure where you got $5 trillion for parked money. You appear to using a very generic definition. Most of us use a figure a quarter of that for "newly parked money".

     

    Corporations have to deal with a fuzzy future for is tax regime, questionable health care costs, an increasingly illiterate labour force, and a declining work ethic. The USA is in major malaise by almost every metric. Declining energy costs are the only bright spot. This is not the environment where one wants to dispatch major money allocation to new ventures. On top of that, the corporate world faces an increasingly hostile Administration and its media lap dogs.

     

    Buffet's comments are meaningless. He'll be dead and buried by the time the USA faces its tipping point...
    30 Jul 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    please remember there are dozens of series from which to choose ... all with differing methodologies. Also, some include commercial leases...
    30 Jul 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Freddy:

     

    (1) I would not so lightly dismiss Buffett. He was talking about corporate CEO's being timid in the face of uncertainty which has always existed, while Berkshire on the other hand was making new investments to expand their businesses. The quality of the CEOs is the issue. It is a very valid criticism of overpaid American CEOs.

     

    I would suggest that anyone interested in Buffett's views of his fellow CEOs to read his comments, rather than my summary of them.

     

    Another side of the problem is evidenced by the repatriation tax holiday given to corporations several years ago in exchange for their promise to create jobs. In response, the corporations shed jobs and used the repatriated cash to increase the compensation of their top executives and to increase dividends according to a Senate Report on the matter.

     

    The Senate Report can be assessed in this story:

     

    http://bit.ly/ThFeIn

     

    (2) Your opinions seem to be influenced by your political beliefs as evidenced in the use of these phrases: "hostile administration", "media lap dogs", "illiterate labor force", and "questionable health care costs" (reference to Obamacare?). Most Americans already have health insurance, largely provided by their employers.

     

    Unlike Canada, the U.S. has given birth to the most of the successful and dominant companies in the world and continues to be the birthplace of innovation and new companies that dominate their industries.

     

    I can not look at long term charts of U.S. Real GDP and Real Personal Income growth, or even the DJIA and S & P indexes long term, and reach the conclusion that the "USA faces its tipping point".

     

    (3) As to cash my number includes non-financial and financial companies as of 2011, more now, and was included in this St. Louis Federal Reserve publication:

     

    http://bit.ly/190n7Mq
    30 Jul 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    sg, I can feel your pain. It must really suck when knowing you were the first nation to put a man on the moon, now you have to whistle a cab (russian) to hitch a ride to ISS. The USA is in terminal decline. In ten short years it will be paying $1.0 trillion a year in interest ($235 billion today) and will have no option but to implement austere cutbacks.

     

    China will regain its status a world's largest economy in 2020. Most in the European Union will have balanced budgets by decade end. Whereas Canada's federal debt will be retired in 2043, CBO figures infer you will owe $130 trillion based on present policy. My own analysis says you'll not be able to raise the Debt Limit to even $30 trillion by that juncture.

     

    In short, many Americans (especially on the left) believe exponential borrowing will last forever. Those of us who have crunched the numbers know otherwise. Those with the reins on major corporations are seen to be already mitigating for the next collapse 'cuz it will make the Great Recession feel like a speed bump...

     

    Debt Wall chart: http://bit.ly/vIM1wQ
    30 Jul 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY]

     

    You underestimate the ole USA, we are just going to declare bankruptcy ! No debt, start all over..

     

    Nice move huh?
    30 Jul 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Freddy: That is one dismal forecast that you have. Admittedly, I can not see that far into the future.

     

    I see that you have a few downgrades of treasury debt in the not too distant future. Does anyone agree with these predictions? If so, please identify and provide a link. I am curious whether you are alone on this one, which is fine.

     

    2014: AA
    2016: A
    2018: BBB
    2019: BB
    2021: B
    2022: CCC
    2023: CC
    2024: C

     

    Did I read that correctly?

     

    You have the budget get as percent of GDP declining to 4.5% in 2015 and then 7.1% of GDP by 2023 with a $1.6T record deficit that year.

     

    The OECD shows the U.S. budget deficit to GDP increasing to a high to 11.9% in 2009 and declining to 5.7% in 2012. The projections for 2013 is 5.4% and then 5.2% in 2014:

     

    http://bit.ly/18LBHJK

     

    Goldman Sachs projected back in April that the U.S. government deficit as a percentage of GDP will decline to 3% or less by fiscal 2015 (ends in September), which seems more optimistic than your forecast.

     

    http://bit.ly/12p4bFi

     

    The rapid recent decline in that number is due to lower spending, higher taxes and an economic improvements. It will help in the coming years for the U.S. to avoid another trillion dollar money pit such as the Iraq War.

     

    Your calculations depend on a host of major variables that can change dramatically. The three major variables have changed significantly just over the past three years and have consequently changed the outlook for the foreseeable future.

     

    While it is just one month, the government did report a budget surplus of $116.5 billion, as revenues rose 10.2% to $286.6B while outlays plunged 48.6% to $170.1 Billion.

     

    Information on June Downloadable from U.S. Government:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/135HP0T

     

    While I understand that you have faith in your trend lines, I do not share your enthusiasm or confidence. Things change.

     

    It was not that long ago that the government had a budget surplus. There were four straight years of budget surpluses in the fiscal years ending in September of 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 and then something happened:

     

    http://bit.ly/Z0mRdf

     

    30 Jul 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Rin,
    If your son is good in math, then he should get into engineering or computer science. Biomedical engineering is another great career choice. It makes sense that we don't have enough kids going into these careers, our population is somewhere around 350 million, with mostly old people, much fewer under 18. Now look at India, over 1 billion & most of them under 30. China has over a billion too with lots of them under 30. So it's easy to see that no way can we fill all the jobs that are math & science related. It's not all because we do a bad job educating kids (although that could be better).

     

    Tell your son times are changing. There's a huge push in this country, we are not done innovating.

     

    Science & engineering are exciting careers. We have a huge shortage of computer programmers - too few kids are majoring in these fields today.

     

    In the next few years, technical advances will keep the medical, computer, communications (anything with a chip in it) fields creating the need for more scientists and engineers. Remember a few years ago, when we didn't have cell phones, tablets, GPS in our cars, robotic surgery, the list goes on. There's a revolution that has taken place with our military capabilities. It's extraordinary how robotics and drones have changed things. The dog or robot relaying video back to the soldiers, and then to mission control, and on to the war room in the White House is amazing. If we can imagine it, we can someday build it.
    30 Jul 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    One more thing Rin, it's not all about the pay. My husband could never have done the research & built the communication chips he did anywhere but here. What we saw happening a decade or so ago is reversing. Some Ph.D's went back to their home countries (met a few in China back in 2003) but they couldn't wait to get back to the USA. And they came here originally to do their graduate degrees on foreign visas. After careers here, they went back to their home countries to work, but eventually ended up back in the USA. I don't think it's much different with India. India is getting better, but there are still major hurdles. The political situations in both countries make it harder to start companies. There's a lot of corruption, bribes, etc. In China you don't really own your company. People dream about coming to the USA.

     

    The only ones that weren't too happy here were from Switzerland. Now, I actually can understand why they did graduate work here & then returned home. Still if they are going to work in industry then there really is no place in the world like the US.

     

    My husband worked at Bell Labs for over 20 years, so we met a lot of these foreigner scientists. The foreigners are what make our country great. Steve Jobs father was a grad student from Syria, what if he had never come here? Our citizens really do represent the entire world.
    30 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    Blue Sky:

     

    I like your advice and attitude. I would go one step further and encourage any young person to become fluent in as many languages as possible. The world will become much more global in the future just because of the population changes that are going on in the world. I would highly encourage Chinese although it is difficult to learn. Of course, we already have voice recognition language converters so maybe it will be less difficult in the future.
    30 Jul 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    No way Freddy, you should go to a major university to feel the energy in this country. We are going to stay ahead of the curve, innovating our way back to a healthy & growing economy.

     

    I read this somewhere awhile ago, it's very amusing. Back at the turn of the previous century, people in Chicago & New York city were worried about the manure piling up in the streets. They were concerned that it would reach 10 feet high, as traffic increased.

     

    Then along came the automobile.
    30 Jul 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    south, 95% of my figures to 2030 come from the CBO. I've used a higher interest rate for treasuries to reflect the inevitable downgrades. I am unsure where you and BlueSky get the idea all is hunky-dorey. By virtually every int'l measure since Y2k, the USA has a failing grade: education, infrastructure, red tape, corruption, barriers to business startups, tax regime, tax fairness, health care, election funding, electoral district adjustment, media neutrality, sector subsidies, arbitrary trade sanctions, failed city cores, metric adoption, etc etc.

     

    As a neighbour I used to enjoy crossing the border many weekends each year. Now not so much. Methinx Americans should travel more to see how far off track they've become, but I guess that's rather difficult for many when your currency is down 40% since 9/11.
    30 Jul 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Freddy:

     

    And the CBO is prescient? What were their calculations for the budget deficits in 2000 looking out to the future?

     

    Budget surpluses as far as the eye could see (table 1):

     

    http://1.usa.gov/14AvL1f

     

    And those 5% changes that you made, did they influence your numbers up or down for the U.S. I wonder?

     

    Your biases are very evident in your statements about the U.S.

     

    For those of us familiar with the U.S., our nation has been a source of wealth creation unparalleled in world history and that will not change.

     

    It is no accident, some kind of temporary fluke, that the U.S. has been source of innovation that other nations simply try to copy, with new companies being born regularly that will rapidly ascend to 50 or even 100 billiion dollar market capitalizations in a decade or less.

     

    I understand that Canada had some technology companies. What was one of them, Nortel, and the other was what Blackberry? We have only Google, Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, Intel, Cisco and a few hundred others.

     

    Now, I am not knocking Canada, and have had professed dreams in my blog of buying Canada, all of it, and renaming it Northern Tennessee.

     

    I own quit a few Canadian stocks and bonds.

     

    But I am concerned about your housing prices up there. Sort of looks like a bubble from down here, with debt to disposable income being far higher than the highest level reached in the U.S. during the housing crisis.

     

    American consumers have reduced their debt service payments to disposable income to levels last seen in 1980:

     

    DSR Ratio:
    http://bit.ly/MiNM1D

     

    FOR Ratio:
    http://bit.ly/WnYXvw

     

    In the 2013 first quarter, the net worth of American households increased to $3 trillion dollars to $70.3 trillion:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/KDf0sF

     

    That number is probably close to $80 trillion now given the rise in home prices, returning rapidly to trend line growth, and the rise in stocks.

     

    I do not see a problem with a long term chart of U.S. corporate profits after tax, noting the fast snapback from the worst downturn since the Great Depression that vastly increased the deficit over several years.

     

    Corporate Profits After Tax
    http://bit.ly/NZJkph

     

    Other numbers do reflect your assessment either:

     

    Real Disposable Personal Income
    http://bit.ly/Z48N5f

     

    Real Gross Domestic Product
    http://bit.ly/VeK1dl

     

    Federal government receipts are turning up nicely:
    http://bit.ly/14AvLhz

     

    Household debt is shrinking as a percentage of GDP:
    http://bit.ly/X6wZju
    30 Jul 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    lol I guess you live close to Detroit! What a downer.

     

    It's all relative. If you are surrounded by depressing people, it's hard to be happy I guess.

     

    Maybe you should see the USA, in your Chrevolet....great old ad song.

     

    It's not all bad here - it's all where you go, who you talk to ; D

     

    Have a nice evening Freddy
    30 Jul 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Extreme, I was just asking my husband "why are there so many old cranky people on the internet?" We're in our 50s, but not dead yet.

     

    He says the young generation coming up is better than us. He works with lots of grad students & professors (electrical & computing engineers). For a few years after leaving Bell Labs, he took it easy. Now he's back into inventing things. The work he does is really exciting.

     

    I'm not ready to just give up & let the pessimists win.
    30 Jul 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    thank you extreme!
    30 Jul 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    I used to cross at Buffalo and Detroit, then Blaine Wash, today it's Skagway. Folks up here used to hate me 'cuz I was so pro-American in my youth. But things have changed. Well, let me say it this way: it's like we all had wild & crazy (alcoholic) uncles who were great to hang with when we were young teens, but now they're just old farts...

     

    Listening to south and others this past year reminds of the happy dance by Argentinians, Icelanders, Greeks, Portuguese and Spanish just before TSHTF...

     

    Anyone who's read my stuff since Y2k knows I was called an American apologist for most of my career and I take no glee in passing on this distressing forecast. Please blame your celebrity President for letting the grand bargain slip by ... not me.

     

    The empirical case for establishing tipping points is sound and albeit figuring out the critical metrics seems to have escaped R&R and most of academia, the path to inevitable harsh austerity is quite predictable.
    30 Jul 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY

     

    Now that comment was what I consider just juvenile.
    30 Jul 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Boy, I am glad some people can see out close to 20 years with a forecast. I can't decide what I want for dinner many nights.

     

    But I have to admit Canada does have better hockey players, just too bad most in the USA don't consider that a sport!

     

    But well see who the real winner will be with the challenge starting shortly. Too bad some have chosen not to show off their talents.
    30 Jul 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    IT: Do you mean the one where Freddy called Americans alcoholic old farts too stupid to realize in their happy dancing that the U.S. government would have a "C" debt rating within 11 years? Was that the "juvenile" comment or were you referring to another one?
    30 Jul 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » south: Nah I saw a few others but I just skip over them now. But it's funny what others think of us isn't it?

     

    Just wished he would just play the challenge and show us how to invest properly. But he's busy so I understand.
    30 Jul 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    So volunteering the three stocks I would have bought wasn't enuf? You want to shame me?

     

    Well, I've been on the 'net since 1987 and on any particular day there's probably seventy stock contests in play with some banks offering $200k in prize money to be shared among the best of over 300 participants. Everything is in real time and portfolio tracking is idiot-proof.

     

    So why would I hang with some stupid American old fart who likes Jack Daniels and wants to run a mickey-mouse challenge? Hmmm?
    31 Jul 2013, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1048) | Send Message
     
    Blue

     

    Thank you for your reply; like you mention times are changing; when I got off the boat 44 years, the space program was going on and this country was considered the world leader in many fields and I knew that I wanted to be an engineer; the economic situation of this country has changed in the past 3 or 4 decades and I have heard many, many times that things will get better and that we'll turn around; I don't want my son to be an engineer working 50-60 hours a week, be obsolete in 5 years and getting into debt to keep up professionally with a master or PhD.
    Instead in accounting and finance field, he can start the process to become financially independent starting right now with stocks.
    But looking at most of the innovations that you mention, it has made it easier for the NSA to spy on the people...I am not sure of the benefits
    31 Jul 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Rin, accounting & finance are both great careers. Your son will soon be telling us where we should invest! Best wishes to him for a bright future.
    31 Jul 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1048) | Send Message
     
    Blue

     

    Thank you for your reply; I got tired of engineering and started to take accounting and financial courses (with a high GPA), and I manage my own stock portfolio without any major sebacks so far; my son has been taking honor class in accounting/finance and placed high in statewide college equivalent test; and for these reasons he got a high merit scholarship for college; yes, you might come across us in a father/son combination managing an hedge fund...see start investing at an early age with education and people might be surprised.
    31 Jul 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FREDDY

     

    Shame you? Why would you think that ? But I would appreciate you cutting down on the negativity of Americans. It is getting old.

     

    I know you hang with us because you love all of us as well.
    31 Jul 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1048) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I saw that the GDP has been revised up (of course) but the graph that I saw doesn't specify if the Q are by CY or FY....anyway even with superstorm Sandy the economy grew...nothing is going to stop us from growing
    31 Jul 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    Deflationary Credit Contraction - I have my own views on it which is the subject matter of Chapter 4 of my first book. Would anyone care to give me their opinions on it?

     

    No rebuttal will be given. Just want to know what you think, right, wrong, crazy or indifferent.

     

    Thank you. Heading out of town for a couple days of RR and will be checking in after that to see if any kind souls reply. I will read all replies with extreme appreciation.
    30 Jul 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Doug;
    I won't venture out on the topic of Deflationary contraction, although I feel it is a real threat, and possibly very soon, but if you do want to get the position of someone who feels that such a scenario is imminent, read the comments of SA commentor, "Contrarianadvisor," who claims 39 yrs experience as an wall street analyst for private investment companies. He sounds credible, though he remains incognito. He has been "warning" people for several months now. Read a few of his comments.
    1 Aug 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John...expected more replies, but I don't think most understand it.
    2 Aug 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10383) | Send Message
     
    I don't know that I understand it all that well, but...

     

    Boom and bust cycles, IMHO are accentuated or attenuated by credit. We have long gotten away from the idea that people save money first and then consume. Today we (generally speaking) buy first and then pay later.

     

    The banksters facilitate the cycles. When the credit standards are loose than we have problems with housing, credit card debt, etc. When the cycles turn, then people figure out they better get some debt paid off, of the system shakes out the debt with writedowns. All too soon (usually) the worm turns and then the guys loosen up the credit again, because they are too tired of slow growth.

     

    I am glad that I am "out of the system" when it comes to credit, and can take action when I want (or when my wife lets me - I should say). I, long ago, said that the "system" was set up to make the bankers rich and the normal folks poor. To play their game is a losing proposition. That does not mean you can't use their system against them to your favor.....
    2 Aug 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    WMARKW:

     

    I am afraid you are a little in left field with your comment. Most people would not have a home if it were not for a mortgage. Most could not buy a car if it were not for their car loans. Many would not be able to buy groceries if it were not for their credit lines on their credit cards. Many would not get a college education if it were not for student loans.

     

    Yes, the process is cyclical and many never get away from the ever reaching tentacles of debt. But is that caused by banks or ever needy consumers who use any debt you give them? Yes, the big banks and the government got crazy during 2008. However, try taking the banks and their credit out of our economic system. It would be the death spiral that would never stop.
    2 Aug 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Actually and probably not surprisingly, loans and leases run on an 8.5 year cycle harmonious with the business cycle. During the expansion phase lenders loosen standards to acquire the new growth and attempt to expand market share, but then must clean up the portfolio as they move along to get rid of the deadbeats. Towards the end of the cycle standards are again tightened ... especially targeted at small and micro firms and recession vulnerable sectors.
    2 Aug 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10383) | Send Message
     
    Extreme....I understand that people need credit. When younger, I needed credit as well. But.... my objective was to get to a point where I didn't NEED credit, but could USE credit when I wanted to.

     

    People who use mortgages can work to get to a point where their mortgage is paid off. Many circumstances make this difficult - e.g. job changes.

     

    Car loans are a whole different story. Sure you may need one at some time, but it's relatively easy to own a car that has no monthly payments associated with it.

     

    I would say it is "tragic" if people need credit cards to buy groceries and suggest that perhaps they need credit cards to buy groceries because they are trapped into usurious interest rates of 20% + on their credit card.

     

    I have no issue with student loans, except that one better examine their prospects for employment if they are going to borrow money to pay for school.

     

    Someone once said:

     

    "Interest never sleeps nor sickens nor dies; it never goes to the hospital; it works on Sundays and holidays; it never takes a vacation; it never visits nor travels; it takes no pleasure; it is never laid off work nor discharged from employment; it never works on reduced hours; it never has short crops nor droughts; it never pays taxes; it buys no food; it wears no clothes; it is unhoused and without home and so has no repairs, no replacements, no shingling, plumbing, painting, or whitewashing; it has neither wife, children, father, mother, nor kinfolk to watch over and care for; it has no expense of living; it has neither weddings nor births nor deaths; it has no love, no sympathy; it is as hard and soulless as a granite cliff. Once in debt, interest is your companion every minute of the day and night; you cannot shun it or slip away from it; you cannot dismiss it; it yields neither to entreaties, demands, or orders; and whenever you get in its way or cross its course or fail to meet its demands, it crushes you."
    Joshua R. Clark
    2 Aug 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    WMARKW:

     

    I believe there is good debt and bad debt. Many people do not know the difference. A carry trade is where one borrows at a lower rate and invest at a higher rate. Banks borrow from the public and invest (lend) to the public at a higher rate. Consumers would be very wise to do the same. In recent years rates have been more attractive than I have ever seen. Yes, credit cards are extremely high but who makes a plan to carry balances on a credit card? Someone who is not very savvy financially. Cut the interest rates on credit cards and you will cut off credit to a part of the economy who really needs credit. Those who can't afford cheap credit. It is unfortunate however, I can't make a viable argument for giving cheap credit to poor credit risk. The system can't function that way since it will not be enough reserves to cover losses.

     

    When I started in business the rule in my business courses was "buyer beware". You had to take responsibility for your decisions. Now, with the consumer protection laws and liberal bankruptcy it seems it is OK to not be responsible. This change in culture has made financing more expensive and less available in my opinion to the detriment of the public. We use to advance loans over the phone when I first started and now it takes a book of documentation to do something simple. All of that paperwork comes with cost to the borrower. The government may think they are protecting someone but very few read the documentation or know what it means after they read it.

     

    My motto is very simple "say what you are going to do and then do it to the best of your ability".

     

    Hope you and everyone else has a great weekend!
    2 Aug 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Yep Doug. I didn't answer because I have no idea what deflationary contraction is. I can guess, but not add value :)
    3 Aug 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK.. The Tungsten 100 oz bar spray painted with gold paint has been ordered and it will be held by Goldman Sachs, or JPM, or Jon Corzine for a year until the winner is announced. The honor system will be used .

     

    Now lets hope they do not lease out our prize possession because we might have to wait 7 years to get it back !!!

     

    Tomorrow's closing prices are to be used for those who want to invest on the first day. I believe we should have about 10 people involved as a few I have asked never responded but could surprise and show up .

     

    LOCKED AND LOADED !!

     

    Remember to put your portfolio in the new chapter that has been saved for entries starting August 1st !! It is in the blogs portion for those who have not bookmarked it .
    30 Jul 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks I did not make this up.. Does SA know something we don't? Check out these figures posted by SA at 1pm..

     

    On the hour
    Dow +0.14%. 10-yr -1.43%. Euro 0.% vs. dollar. Crude -0.45% to $1323.65. GOLD+0.12% to $15540.5.

     

    I told you guys gold would do well. I hope FEAR did not use margin on shorting GOLD !!

     

    Maybe they are posting 2 years out? hehe

     

    Think anyone proof reads anymore??
    30 Jul 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Some charts showing the economy from a different perspective.

     

    I do pay attention to stuff like this , there is a point & counter point to both arguments ---- but the bottom line is earnings.

     

    http://bit.ly/1e8Unnl
    30 Jul 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    I agree the bottom line for the stock market is earnings. However, other markets such as bonds and precious metals rely more on what is going on with the economy.
    30 Jul 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Extreme ,

     

    agreed and this may put all of whats going on in the simplest of terms .

     

    http://bit.ly/1ckQAFl

     

    Until there is a "change' in perception, the trends in the equity, bond & PM markets should remain in the path & direction they now find themselves presently in.
    30 Jul 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, It is now open !! I suggest everyone come up with a Team name for their mock portfolio this way I can see you is joining in.

     

    MINE: LOCKED AND LOADED !!

     

    You can now post that info in the PORTFOLIO CHAPTER #2

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks!!
    30 Jul 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, enough of today's debate...BIG WEDNESDAY'S GDP REPORT IS AROUND THE CORNER !!!!

     

    100K ready to rumble...LOCKED AND LOADED !! Here I come amateurs
    30 Jul 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    "NO MATTER WHAT" :-)
    30 Jul 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ROS

     

    Not official until you post in the portfolio chapter #2 !!!

     

    Now put down the Jack Daniels and find it !!! lol

     

    Hint..( a few post above I listed the link )
    30 Jul 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Another view regarding the global scene , specifically Europe

     

    Article on Warren Buffett and his latest moves in the Eurozone.
    Slow & steady recovery ? Maybe they wont fall apart after all .

     

    http://bit.ly/13v3ARV
    31 Jul 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    Actually the best news this week is from the UK. Despite all the cable news screaming and handwaving about how ludicrous was their harsh austerity program, they clobbered the USA in Q2: 2.4% vs 1.7%

     

    The UK should transition from Recovery to Expansion in 36 months and balance their budget in 2024.
    31 Jul 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    And the future of the U.K. is without question brighter than the U.S. who will have a "C" rating on its government debt within 11 years?

     

    The U.S. government's GDP report this morning has sent interest rates up with the 10 year treasury breaking out of its recent 2.5% to 2.6% trading range. As I mentioned earlier, I believe that the FED would start to taper in September with a Real GDP report in excess of 1% and a small decline in the last 7.6% unemployment rate number.

     

    I just wrote a description of the recent GDP report that I will publish in my next weekly blog, but will copy that discussion here:

     

    The government reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter. This is the first estimate. The price index for gross domestic purchase increased .3% in the second quarter.

     

    Real personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8%, down from +2.3% in the first quarter.

     

    Real gross domestic purchases of good and services increased 2.4%, compared to a 1.4% rise in the prior quarter.

     

    Real nonresidential fixed investment increased by 4.6% vs. a 4.6% decrease in the first quarter.

     

    Corporate spending on equipment rose a 4.1% annualized pace.

     

    Residential construction increased at 13.4% annualized rate, adding .4% to GDP.

     

    Real disposable income increased 3.4% and current dollar personal income increased $140.1 billion or 4.1%.

     

    Exports rose 5.4%, the largest gain since the third quarter of 2011.

     

    The government also released comprehensive revisions to GDP from 1929 through the 2013 first quarter. One revision was a new category for intangible assets like research and development. The revision for 2012 increased GDP growth to 2.8% from 2.2%. The revision also took down the 2013 first quarter to 1.1% from the previous 1.8% number. The revisions has produced a higher savings rate.

     

    ************

     

    In another report today, ADP reported that private employers added 200,000 jobs in July, topping the consensus estimate of 180,000.

     

    http://bit.ly/17Tx9Af
    31 Jul 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    The UK's 10-yr bond rate has been better than the USA's for many weeks. One-by-one, they're all considered better long-term risk than the USA.
    31 Jul 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    I thought Canada was going to pay off its debt in a few years. The Canadian 10 year is at 2.57% this morning, versus 2.68% for the U.S. while the U.K. 10 year is rising in yield to around 2.37%. Only someone, who has already evidenced an extreme bias against the U.S. would view those different numbers as significant, or that any U.S. government rate is signaling any concern whatsoever about the long term financial viability of the U.S.
    31 Jul 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    My 2024 Austerity Crisis guidance was distributed to clients Feb28th. As the 10-yr yield climbed from 1.6%, your celebrity President knew he could no longer make his rosy 2015 Deficit targets. He ain't doin' the happy dance any more.

     

    He knows the conservatives have now got him on both the Debt Limit and the Continuing Resolution. That's why he had his Secretary threaten Gov't Shut Down on all the Sunday news shows over the weekend. He's done...
    31 Jul 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ SG & everyone

     

    The GDP & jobs reports were so good, it points to taper in Sept. Long term interest rates are rising.

     

    So why is the market flying upward?

     

    I was counting on tapering starting a downtrend, that I could then jump back in, somewhere in the middle of.
    31 Jul 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Curls:

     

    There is a misconception that higher interest rates are necessarily bad for stocks.

     

    Rising rates will hurt bond owners and will cause some of those owners to rotate out of bonds into equities. An owner of 1.66% coupon 10 year treasury bought on 5/1/13 has already suffered a significant loss that will offset several years of interest payments at such a low coupon and it is getting worse not better for those bond owners.

     

    The stock market is anticipating more upward momentum in GDP after the recent brief dip. If rates rise due to a better outlook for the economy, resulting in higher profits for companies, then stocks can rise.

     

    There have been prolonged periods where there have been robust stock market moves with the ten year treasury over 4%. The rise between 1991-1999 in the market occurred with the 10 year treasury moving mostly in the 5% to 7.5% range. The long term secular bull market that started in August 1982 had even higher interest rates. The average rate on a 30 year mortgage in 1982 was 16% with 2.2 points. Similarly, the rally in 2003-2007 happened with the 10 year moving mostly in the 4% to 5% range.

     

    Based on the current inflation estimates embodied in the 10 year TIP as of yesterday's close, a very benign 2.17 average rate for 10 years, I doubt that the ten year will rise to over 4.25% over the next two years as the FED tapers and then ends QE. While that will be bad for bond investors, it is not going to be more than a temporary concern for stock investors provided the economic numbers and profits continue to improve. The 2.17% average inflation rate is supportive of stocks, particularly those that raise their dividends at a much higher rate each year.

     

    31 Jul 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ SG

     

    Okay, rates aren't necessarily bad. I added that comment, only because I keep hearing the market things they are. So now I know more :).

     

    But why about the rest that was the core of my question. Why is good news that points to tapering, suddenly good news? The very last time there were mumblings of tapering, it went down in reaction?

     

    Your stronger economy thought, definitely helps explain. Any other reasons?
    31 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Curls,

     

    the daily gyrations of the markets are fickle.. There are some that say the market has already "priced in " the idea and the first bit of tapering.

     

    another thought - traders were patiently waiting for this GDP number which was basically a non event , the market initially has no reaction , they breathe a sigh of relief & then get back to buying..
    31 Jul 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ FG

     

    Hum, makes sense, as much as markets gyrations ever do....
    31 Jul 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Curls: I doubt that the FED will start to taper unless the unemployment declines from the June 7.6% number. The FED is focused more on unemployment than GDP at the moment.

     

    The ADP employment report number was above expectations at +200,000 private sector jobs. ADP also revised up its June estimate to 198,000 from 188,000.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aWXU8F

     

    The BLS will release its next jobs report this Friday. That is the next important data point. The current estimates, depending on which service compiles the data, are between 175,000-185,000, which includes both the government and the private sector. The June BLS number was +195,000.

     

    The consensus forecast also calls for the unemployment rate to fall to 7.5%. One consensus forecast for economic releases can be found at Marketwatch:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aWXU8J

     

    If we see a jobs number this Friday in the 180,000+ range, particularly with upward revisions in the prior months and a decline in unemployment to 7.5% or lower from 7.6% in June, then the start of tapering in September will be highly probable in my view.

     

    I read a story earlier today that TrimTabs was looking for only a 23,000 increase in jobs.

     

    http://cnb.cx/1aWXRJP

     

    If the report is anywhere close to that number, with unemployment staying at 7.6% or higher, then the September tapering bet is off.
    31 Jul 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, I just got in from being out in the afternoon. I AM ASKING A SERIOUS QUESTION HERE. What made gold jump in the afternoon? Did BB SAY SOMETHING?

     

    Thanks!
    31 Jul 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    IT ,

     

    I wasn't paying a lot of attention , I thought the 10 yr went up to 2.7 sending gold down earlier, then the 10 yr reversed , down to 2.59 & gold rallied off the lows. ??

     

    Also maybe traders bought into the no taper talk..

     

    All markets seemed to have a wild ride today
    31 Jul 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The challenge is on. Check out that chapter.

     

    I guess we have a Ben rally today?
    1 Aug 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Maybe, but I think there are other factors at work ,, all Positive

     

    the Europe numbers started us off with strong futures & opening.

     

    http://read.bi/13Dq821
    http://cnnmon.ie/13Dq9De

     

    For the moment "europe" and the implosion that some are predicting is squarely "off the table"

     

    Plenty of issues still there , BUT it is improving, that's all the markets want to see.

     

    Now we just got a very strong ISM number here in the U.S.-- 55
    that is not a "contraction" Number .

     

    SPX broke the 1700 level. , maybe another leg up ?
    1 Aug 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » is anyone else having the problem on their homepage of SA that the articles you follow aren't showing . plus my stocktalk area is just spinning?
    1 Aug 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    same here
    1 Aug 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just wrote a note to SA, hope others do as well.
    1 Aug 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @FEAR and all.

     

    It looks like you are right about the economy. I know part time workers are at an all time clip. Now I do have a question. If you fire a full time person and hire 2 part time people have you increased the job force by 1 person?

     

    That seems the norm with Obamacare on the horizon.
    1 Aug 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Doug Short's data/charts on bull bear markets since 1870:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Aug 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Notrub: That is a good chart and shows why investors need to try and figure out whether they are navigating a long term bear or bull period. The best way to accomplish that feat is to identify the strong secular forces that are driving each period. Problematic inflation was the primary driver for the 1966-1982 bear period. The market took off in August 1982 when enough investors realized that the FED had solved that problem.

     

    The S & P 500 annualized returns during the long term bear periods, with dividends reinvested, will be negative over an extended period of time. Some of the sharpest up and down moves will be made during those periods, a trader's market, but the end result will be a roller coaster ride going nowhere in nominal terms after a decade or more. That is just a historical fact.

     

    I would also agree with his distinction in secular trends and shorter term bull and bear cycles. The decline in October 1987 did not break the dominant secular bull trend in place since August 1982 for example. Each long term bull or bear period will have shorter term bull and bear cycles.

     

    The difference is that the bull cycle will be trending up through those cycles while the long term bear secular market will go nowhere over an extended period and will frequently keep returning to its starting levels after a strong burst up, a trader's market. Long term investors can opportunistically take positions during the catastrophic phases of those long term secular bear cycles.

     

    Some of my posts on the subject:

     

    May 2010
    The Roller Coaster Ride of the Long Term Secular Bear Market
    http://bit.ly/UiFHsF

     

    The Importance of Identifying the Underlying Causes of Long Term Bull and Bear Markets
    http://bit.ly/VxKIwo

     

    There are probably more than 20 posts, mostly older ones, that address this very important subject for investors.

     

    For about 2 years after the March 2009 lows, I classified the move as a bull cyclical move in a long term bear cycle similar to the move off the catastrophic lows (more than 45% down from high) seen in 1932 and 1974.

     

    Based on the weight of the evidence, I reclassified the move as a start of a long term bull period in 2012. The classification did not matter for at least two years, since a trader would play the move irrespective of the classification.
    1 Aug 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    South: Some people are still saying we are in a secular bear market. I don't see how this is possible since most indexes are at new "all time" highs. If that does not define a bull market I don't know what would.
    1 Aug 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I agree. It is inconsistent with the long term bear cycle for market averages to break out of the characteristic whipsaw up and down pattern. Many characterized the move starting in August 1982 for several years as just another cyclical bull move, even after the market averages burst beyond their previous highs (e.g. around 1050 for the DJIA back in 1970) If the rally in 1982 had stalled in the 1000-1100 DJIA range, and then plunged again back to say 800, then that rally would be a cyclical move, but that is not what happened.

     

    http://bit.ly/vLHnKP

     

    I am looking mostly at the long term secular forces that drive the long term bull and bear periods in making my classifications.

     

    For example, I have discussed the long term positive force relating to increases in disposable income every month due to lower debt service payments (DSR Ratio). That evidence is part of what I call the weight of evidence favoring the long term bull classification for the current market.
    1 Aug 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    Extreme,
    There are plenty that are still in the Secular bear camp , their view of this rally is just a cyclical bull rally. They have stated that there is one more down leg to come and most say their research shows that downturn to come this year.. Authors here on SA have shared their views on that , indicating we will see a triple digit S & P number before the year is out.. One has been so bold to say we will revisit the old lows on the S & P -- This Year ! As of July they were still predicting this because of what they feel is the 13 year culmination of their bear cycle.

     

    I have commented numerous times here on SA & elsewhere that I believe we are in a secular BULL market and posted many reasons for that view..

     

    It wont be straight up , but I think before it is all over many will be surprised where this market may go..
    1 Aug 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    F&G, SOUTH

     

    I believe it is probable we will see PE expansion in the next year based on the cheap interest rates we currently enjoy. South, this would coincide with your opinion that an improving DSR ratio is favorable for many. It is, however the depositior or bond investor is receiving a lot less in interest so some of those benefits are negated.

     

    The main positive factor for the stock market IMHO is earnings and revenue continue to improve.

     

    http://bit.ly/13g3EHO
    1 Aug 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3110) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: The long term beneficial impact from QE is the increase in household disposable income resulting from the refinancing wave at historically abnormally low interest rates. The same positive effect will be seen long term for publicly traded corporations that have refinanced their debt at the current levels. Since I own a lot of bonds, I see that kind of activity monthly. An issuer calls the bond and refinances the redemption at a much lower coupon and a significantly longer maturity.

     

    The benefits of QE are rapidly diminishing however. Maybe another 2 million households will be able to refinance at lower rates now through June 2014. Those will mostly be those households who will move into positive equity due to the rise in their home prices and who do not qualify for HARP refinancing since their mortgage is not owned by a GSE.

     

    The negatives outweigh the positives now. However, as wages increase and savers start to earn a normal return on their savings, those factors will combine with the higher disposable income resulting from the refinancing wave to create an even longer period where consumers can spend more to support a recovery without having to incur debt which was the ultimate source of the problem that imploded in 2008.

     

    A 4% average interest rate on $7 trillion in savings account will produce a lot more household disposal income, compared to the near zero income now, to be sure.
    1 Aug 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    south...wages are not increasing though. And if we are a truly global competitor, have much further to fall despite the unions crying for a higher minimum wage. Also, interest rates can stay lower, longer, than most expect.

     

    Food for thought, but more along the lines of what I see forthcoming, based on my understanding of the data.
    3 Aug 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    The economy is recovering. Many of the companies in the Dow still have very low PEs. As more people go back to work they will spend more. Europe is looking up. Things are getting better.

     

    I can see the Dow reaching 16,000 later this year. People are still eating, smoking, drinking & using personal care products. And getting their prescriptions filled. Apparently they are even buying homes. The death of the US economy is greatly exaggerated.
    1 Aug 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    There will be another $600 billion in QE purchases over the next three quarters and the effect on the economy will be dramatic according to TRI's measure of animal-spirits-plus since mid May. While neophytes fretted over the upcoming alleged flat Q2 number, savvy investors have been investing based on 4Q13 & 1Q14 targets. As cable news pundits continued their ad nauseum negativity thru July, the shares dumped by scared nervous nellies were being picked up by medium-term minded traders.

     

    Only failure of the Debt Ceiling & CR negotiations add uncertainty short-term but smart money takes comfort in the realization any fallout will be short-lived...

     

    gdp outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
    1 Aug 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Freddy
    I did take a look at the link above and the "Animal Spirits Plus" chart.

     

    I liked the picture you have of Obama bowing before Chinese President Hu in 2010. It may deserve even more prominence. Then I remembered that Obama also bowed before Saudi King Abdullah. Do you think that the bow to President Hu was a more significant bow than the bow to King Abdullah? Maybe you should show both.

     

    The best laugh is Obama bowing before his majesty, the Burger King.

     

    Debt wall: the year 2023 seems rather conservative, when you consider how much debt has been compiled just since 2008. I know you must have a data model you trust, but it seems (my animal spirits) like the wheels will have fallen off well before 2023.
    2 Aug 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    John, the May revision of the Debt Wall chart will be released in two weeks. Its data is founded for the most part on CBO's Alternative Scenario and has been updated quarterly since 2009. The enhancement for tipping points on ratings downgrades and 10-yr yield forecasts is new for 2013. Neither CBO nor my TRI are sensing economic contractions withing the next ten years.

     

    If however the US would suffer such an event, it would hasten the 2024 austerity crisis 'cuz all ratios tied to GDP would hit empirical tipping points sooner. As the March 27th chart shows, its Q2 forecast was 1.7% ... so I have rather high confidence in its gauge of baseline Real GDP. That said, when one filters out this year's massive federal deficit, the underlying economy is a dreadful -2.8% today (August), so any attempt to balance the Budget on the short-term would be perilous.

     

    As this week's BEA multi-decadal revision has on balance improved GDP readings over the past two years, we should see this month Lakshman Achuthan's mea culpa admitting both the 2011 & 2012 ECRI recession calls were false positives. Their model seems to have been unable since mid 2011 to get a handle on both the multiplier effect of fiscal policy and the headwind/tailwind factor of rising/falling oil prices. He must be getting input from James Hamilton!
    2 Aug 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Latest Macro:
    * July Nonfarm Payrolls: +162K vs. consensus +175K, +188K previous (revised from +195K).
    * Unemployment rate 7.4% vs. consensus 7.5%, 7.6% previous.

     

    SPY & IWM trading slightly lower triggered as it came out.

     

    What's it mean?
    2 Aug 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2922) | Send Message
     
    So wait, the unemployment picture is not improving?...and all those good numbers from the last two reports were revised lower?
    2 Aug 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    The number of new jobs went down yet unemployment went down also?
    2 Aug 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10383) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the denominator changed because a couple million people died.
    2 Aug 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I HAVE ASKED THIS QUESTION BEFORE BUT DID NOT GET AN ANSWER. If an owner fires one full time employee but hires two part time employees did unemployment drop and job creation expand by one in each direction???

     

    Serious question ....
    2 Aug 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10383) | Send Message
     
    What is the CES definition of employment?

     

    "CES employment is an estimate of the number of nonfarm, payroll jobs in the U.S. economy. Employment is the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full-or part-time who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any employees who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. A striking employee who only works a small portion of the survey period, and is paid, would be included as employed under the CES definitions. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment. Data exclude proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Persons on layoff the entire pay period, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period, or who have a pending job but have not yet reported for work are not counted as employed. Government employment covers only civilian employees; it excludes uniformed members of the armed services."

     

    Note: from WMARKW - notice part-timers counted in each establishment.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/13IQ7Fd
    2 Aug 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ Tampat

     

    That totally puzzled me too. No one in the comments on the SA market moves article explains it either.
    2 Aug 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    It depends on if the person fired and the two people hired were collecting unemployment benefits.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/xufzOU

     

    The headline number comes from U3. So if more people drop off the UI benefits rolls than are added for the month then the official US gov. reported "unemployment rate" also drops which is what happened in this last report. Only U6 counts all unemployed irrespective of "benefits".

     

    Below is the overview of these six measures.

     

    U1:
    This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. This unemployment rate measures workers who are chronically unemployed. During business-cycle expansions, this rate captures structural unemployment. However, during lengthy business-cycle contractions, this rate is also likely to include a significant amount of cyclical unemployment. U1 tends to be relatively small, in the range of 1-2 percent.

     

    U2:
    This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is classified as job losers (workers who have been involuntarily fired or laid off from their jobs) and people who have completed temporary jobs. During business-cycle expansions, this rate is likely to capture some degree of frictional unemployment. However, during business-cycle contractions, this rate is most likely to consist of cyclical unemployment. U2 is larger than U1, but still remains substantially less than the official unemployment rate (U3).

     

    U3:
    This is the official unemployment rate, which is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

     

    U4:
    This is the official unemployment rate that is adjusted for discouraged workers. In other words, discouraged workers are treated just like other workers who are officially classified as unemployed, being included in both the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force. It is technically specified as the proportion of the civilian labor force (plus discouraged workers) that is either unemployed but actively seeking employment or discouraged workers. The addition of discouraged workers generally adds a few tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.

     

    U5:
    This augments U4 by including marginally-attached workers to the unemployment rate calculation. Marginally attached workers are potential workers who have given up seeking employment for various reasons. One of these reasons is that the workers believe such effort would be futile, which places them in the discouraged worker category. Those who have other reasons for not seeking employment are placed in the broader marginally-attached workers category. The addition of marginally-attached workers adds a few more tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.

     

    U6:
    This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.

     

    http://bit.ly/Uhjkrl

     

    U6 still hasn't gone under 14%. The REAL unemployment rate.
    3 Aug 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    U-6 had improved to 13.8% March & May but has suffered a setback to 14.3% as folks re-enter the labour force.

     

    U-6 & natural unemployment rate chart: http://bit.ly/pqgjCS
    3 Aug 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @NOTRUB

     

    I did not read all the links. But I am not sure I agree with your statement. You are considered unemployed if you run out of unemployment but are still looking for work.

     

    Now you are considered employed, or not counted, if you ran out of unemployment and are not looking for work. That is my understanding.
    3 Aug 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5105) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I have no idea how that works , but would assume you would be correct - 1 add and rate drops.

     

    I did hear that they do track full time & part time hires now. and have those stats broken down by those 2 categories.. not sure if that's a change or if it was always like that..
    2 Aug 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Only reason I ask is because I hear that is happening all over the place. In fact I was in Home Depot today and one worker said that they have more part timers now then ever before, and less full time workers. Obviously so they do not have to pay benefits.

     

    I asked the guy what he does for benefits being part time and he said he is on his wives plan, but others have no benefits who work part time as they cannot afford the expense with a mortgage etc. Some had no jobs for a while so took this one to feed their families.

     

    So where does this leave us in a year when Obamacare kicks in I asked. They would rather pay the fine then the monthly insurance premium and run the risk of no bad health issues.

     

    One has to wonder what is going to happen in 5 years with a ton of people doing the same. My daughter turns 26 years old next year, is a full time sub for a school district with no benefits. I asked her what she plans on doing once she is off our family plan and said she cannot afford insurance, would rather them chase her for the fine because they haven't even established how they are going to collect it.

     

    That one I could not answer because I am not sure if it is established yet. Plus you have many young graduates without jobs and benefits. She works two jobs, one in the school and one in a department store, also coaches the high school JV softball program.

     

    Then I have posted once before was told that she could not work more then 29.5 hours or they were forced to pay her benefits and they will not. That I believe was shelved for until after 2014 ??

     

    If anyone knows for sure please post it so that I know .

     

    THANKS!!
    2 Aug 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    I can only talk about what I did. I was a forty-hour a week job. Mon - Fri, 3 - 11pm. I hated it. I was burnt out. I managed to talk my way into a 7-day on/7-day off job doing the same work. I am still burnt out. I still hate it. I have a week to recuperate. I can deal.

     

    I gave up benefits (health insurance) for a 12% raise this year. I got to keep the 401k (which I didn't know about until April). My health insurance through BCBS costs the same as my employers. If I went through my employer, I would only have my own hospital's services to consider. BCBS gives me many hospitals and urgent care centers throughout the state.

     

    BCBS sent me a notice that my insurance would expire in Jan. and that rates would likely go up. What I do know is that my hospital insurance rates have gone up over the two years I've been working there. So I will go with BCBS as long as the rates are equivalent and I get to keep my 12% raise.

     

    I suppose I should marry Woman and get on her sweet university insurance plan this year.
    2 Aug 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    So according to what WMARK wrote above, your daughter with 2 jobs is counted as 2 people employed.
    2 Aug 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ok, but can she work over 29.5 hours next year without worrying about her employer paying benefits? Which they already said the school district will not. I thought that was shelved a year??

     

    Or does she have to stay under to be considered part time?
    2 Aug 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    What was pushed back for a year was the "employer" mandate. The "personal" mandate is still in effect starting in January.

     

    Plain english, the companies, schools, etc. don't have to worry about it until 2015. But, every day people will get fined starting Jan 1, 2014 if they don't have coverage. Since the penalty is considered a "tax" the IRS will be the enforcing department of government.

     

    http://bit.ly/1b36Auc

     

    Of course Congress has been exempted from the whole process....:oP

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1b3...
    3 Aug 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    No, WMARK is giving the definition of EMPLOYMENT not UNEMPLOYMENT. See my post above about how she is counted. Since she is NOT collecting unemployment benefits she is only counted in U6 as a part time worker who is seeking full time employment.
    3 Aug 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks

     

    Now she turns 26 during the year. So I assume you get the penalty from your birthday?
    3 Aug 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R...
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
     
    BLS: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in July. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job."
    3 Aug 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    No read the links. The penalty starts January 1, 2014 and is assessed in your taxes for 2014 at APR 2015.
    3 Aug 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    I thought it was pushed back to 2015 also, to give companies more time to 'prepare'.

     

    However, if companies are beginning a transition into keeping their employees under 30 hours now, I see no reason they should go back to full time this year knowing that in a year they will still be faced with the same issue again.
    3 Aug 2013, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @TAMPAT

     

    I hope it was pushed back because being a full time sub she was able to work 5 days a week and the person who handles subs would have had to find a person for one day a week and she would have been able to only work 4 days.

     

    Then she would have had to work a second job for that off day. I now think the school and her would be happy if she can be counted on for 5 days!!
    3 Aug 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11063) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I JUST OPENED A NEW CHAPTER FOR ALL WITH A QUESTION..
    4 Aug 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
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