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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 33.........  188 comments
    Aug 18, 2013 3:33 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.






    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (GLD) and (SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (188)
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  • Author’s reply » Ok, what are the Major reports due out this week??
    18 Aug 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I see quite a few comments and have asked before for a few to explain a "covered call"


    FEAR and NOTRUB seem to use this and make money monthly.


    So if anyone wants to take the time again to explain it and maybe copy and put in the READING CHAPTER?


    some questions asked of me .


    1) How many shares do you need to own.
    2) does this method work in a correction.
    3) can anyone do this within their trading account or do they need margin
    4) can you cancel the trade if the stock takes off


    Now I know someone took the time to explain this once before but instead of me looking for what chapter it is in I would appreciate someone doing again. Maybe add a few links as well?


    But I guess the questions above were not answered completely and I am not a trader doing this.


    18 Aug 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I am the one who did the explanation before. And, I added it to your reading list as per your request.
    All of you questions above were answer there except #4. The answer to #4 is yes you cancel the trade by buying a call to close for the exact same trade you sold the call for. When you do that you will have to pay the current premium for that option which is usually higher than the premium you received, if the stock takes off.
    18 Aug 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub's explanation on the call strategy is top notch.


    After reading his analysis and getting familiar with the strategy here is an actual portfolio I have set up and intend to track for a year here on SA to see how It does. I intend to limit the actual dollars invested at any given point in time to $100,000 . Makes it EZ to adjust if someone wants to try with a smaller amount.



    From that link u can see the holdings as of today & go back in time to see how each was added.
    18 Aug 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NOTRUB


    Thanks, I appreciate that. Getting ready to take my wife out for our Anniversary dinner. Trying to just answer and update before I leave.


    Think McDonalds has a special today?hehe
    18 Aug 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • OK, I had mentioned recently that I have this psychological thing going where I prefer to buy stocks more in the $20 range than say $60, 70, 80 or more. I like having quantity of a good stock with potential in the lower price area so when they move a buck or two it means something.


    I did a little snooping around to see if I can find examples of a few higher priced stock with good reputations that have given its investors little or no gains in say the past couple of years. Here are a couple....
    (1) CAT - Catepillar is a big name yet its stock price was $89 two years ago and today stands at $85
    (2) McD - McDonalds $88 two years ago and now stands at $96. That's not bad but had you purchased it 18 months ago rather than two years when it was just above $100 you would be holding it now at $96.... no gain


    I realize we can all look around and find others that did well but these are two glaring examples of big name, high profile companies priced in the 80s that are no gain over the last 18-24 months if you held. I also realize that I am asking for stocks that will do well in a 5-10 year period and these two have indeed done well in that time.


    I am sure with enough research I can find some real nice bumps in lower priced stocks over the past 5-10 years too. I am not completely closed minded to more expensive stocks, especially if they have a nice dividend but with limited funds to invest and only being able to do so once a year I guess I am just looking for stocks more reasonably priced for my budget so I can buy two or three if I so desire. Diversity is good in a portfolio too and if I buy $100 stocks I will only be able to buy one company at a time.


    I am just trying to sort it all out and weigh my options as I get closer to my October opportunity to change my IRA a bit,
    18 Aug 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • In re: (CAT) and (MCD), you have to factor in dividends received over that holding period, too. I 'get' the psychological thing about having a large number of shares, but really, it doesn't make a difference. It's not uncommon for a high price stock to move a couple dollars in a day - you really should look at in %'age gains in total. They all kind of balance out, barring major 'events'.
    18 Aug 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • ROS


    I had the same initial reaction that smaller would show more % change on a few dollars move. On looking, I observed that lower shares moved by pennies... while larger shares moved by dollars.


    The only place where there's effect, is much lower cost stocks. Then a penny change can be a big percent. Then though the moves are a penny up, a penny down, so still doesn't matter. You just can't fine tune your stops and buy limits as finely. These stocks, too, are much more risky, gambling scenarios most of the time. Certainly not the bigger solid stocks paying dividends and considered low risk long term holds.


    So I'd encourage you to stare at the charts of several picks (all that did equally well), and see for yourself. ...and if you see something different than I did... please let me know!
    18 Aug 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • ROS,
    Actually, if you go back and take look a LOT of stocks still have not recovered from the 2000 Y2K/DotCom bust. You will also find that the 1998-2000 period was the last time a lot of stocks did a stock split.


    Take Intel for example. It hit its peak and split 2 for 1 on 31JUL2000. It's pre split price was 74.87, post split price was 37.44. (INTC) has not broken either of those prices in 13 years. (MSFT) same story.
    19 Aug 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Boy either they are after JP MORGUE or they are just playing games here..


    SEC probes JPMorgan over hiring practices in China


    The SEC is reportedly investigating JPMorgan (JPM) into whether the bank recruited the children of influential Chinese officials in order to win business
    In one instance, JPMorgan hired Tang Xiaoning, the son of the chairman of state-controlled China Everbright Group. Following the recruitment, the U.S. bank won multiple deals from the Chinese financial conglomerate.


    In another example, JPMorgan recruited Zhang Xixi, the daughter of a Chinese railway official who was later arrested over bribery claims. At the time of Zang's hiring, China Railway Group was in the process of choosing JPMorgan to help it with an IPO.


    JPMorgan referred to the probe in its latest quarterly filing this month, saying the SEC had requested information about the "employment of certain former employees in Hong Kong and its business relationships with certain clients."


    The investigation adds to several other probes into JPMorgan, including into the London Whale trading blunder and mortgage bonds.


    The bank is the subject of inquiries by at least eight federal agencies and a state regulator in the U.S., as well as by two foreign countries.
    18 Aug 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sh@t, I new I should have never sold that safe.

    18 Aug 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Read the comment section of that story... It appears that HuffPo's reader base consists largely of a bunch of potheads.
    18 Aug 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JBT


    Ok, what point are you making? I can use the
    19 Aug 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Just an observation...
    19 Aug 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Might have missed that as they were passing the Bong around.


    So speaking of observations, where's the market heading short term? We have the FED again having an influence this week. But I sense something else brewing since rates are still creeping up. You?
    19 Aug 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Does it ever do anything except go down? :)
    19 Aug 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBN


    I am serious. You have been doing this for a while it seems. Some of us haven't. So do you feel this is a short term drop or a start of a correction that can last for a while?


    Serious question as our lurkers I am sure would value your opinion.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Since predictions are free (and usually worth what you pay for them), here's mine...


    Choppy, mainly down until mid-September. Typical ramp-up into the holidays, with maybe a stronger up-side than usual due to strong holiday sales numbers (another prediction). Taper will turn out to be much a-do about nothing, and they'll either keep on the current course, or trim buys by a token amount ("for an extended period", or course). Maybe a 1/4-point interest rate rise, but I doubt it. Political shenanigans will probably steal the Fed limelight for awhile sometime in there.


    Any, all or none of that stuff can go like I predict. I'm holding on to all of my stocks, both in real-life and in the challenge. In my real money portfolio, I'm trying to trim other expenses so I can boost my monthly purchases. My stocks are on sale.
    19 Aug 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So we don't have a housing financial issue?



    Take a look !!
    19 Aug 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Ugly day for preferred stocks. Fortunately, I don't have too much invested (as I don't have that much money) at this time. I see more and more preferreds below par and at better yields.


    If the fixed income freakout continues, I will be focusing buying into the ones that are backed by companies actually making money and trading below par for the rest of the year. As the bills allow me to save, of course.
    19 Aug 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @USER


    Ugly day all around imo.. Rates will still continue to rise as many on the Floor have suggested today. they expect tapering to happen. I am not so sure.


    But what do I know! I don't read charts, I just look at the macro events in society when I invest. Too much turmoil going on imo.


    It isn't the media putting any spin on the FED. It is real. The traders admit it, Jackson Hole is also a concern. Gold held up relatively well today too.


    My 2 cents !
    19 Aug 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, but preferred stocks, especially the mreit ones (even those that own actual real estate as well as mortgages or lend to real-estate companies) got hammered especially bad.


    I don't focus on macro-events for investing. I don't understand them well enough and how it might relate to investing. I can understand political and social ramifications down the road fairly well, but as far as investing? Can't do it.


    Obamacare? I work in healthcare and I don't understand it! I don't think most of my colleagues could explain it coherently. I expect the insurance rates I pay will go up, but that's the best I can do. I have not investigated them, but I keep hearing that health-care oriented reits have done very well this year.


    I could point to the civil war in Syria (not that much oil or gas) or the last couple of months in Egypt (even less commodities produced, but regionally important) as macro events that could be considered important. And Sudan, which I read this article about gold fields:



    But how would I interpret this as far as investing in anything goes? I have read many doom & gloom articles over the last few years, but have not benefited from them, nor do I understand the writer's motivations other than to gain more clients. "You can not do it...there is to much scary stuff going on...only I can guide you" (made up quote, but I think some people reading this can guess a few writers I might be thinking of with this)


    Last summer, I liquidated most of my stocks and such to pay down various debt I had. I figured we would have a repeat of summer 2011. I was wrong. I started investing again last November and did quite well until (what I consider) an emergency happened last June. So I can't complain.


    I have no confidence in what various governments preach. Or any other organizations for that matter. What I do have confidence in is my ability to evaluate information and make a decision.


    Which is why I like preferred stocks. They are fairly simple to understand (as long as you read the prospectus). Rising rates? Blah.


    I don't have that much in the market currently, but if rates keep rising I think that some market hysteria and evaluating the underlying companies and selectively buying into preferreds could be profitable with some decent dividends along the way.


    IT, have you ever considered I-bonds for an investment? I like them as they match cpi, but also can never lose the prinicpal. Meaning you get some inflation protection, but maybe more importantly deflation protection when you buy into them.


    And I apologize to whoever might be irritated with me - I've had a bad week at work and have a good many hours left to work this week. :)
    19 Aug 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • User,


    Paying attention to macro events can help you discern longer term trends. You dont need to understand the ACA to see that it may effect health care, look at a health ins stock like UNH.


    You mentioned the middle east, you don't need to know what the outcome will be, only that the violence will continue and consider how the US may get dragged into it or, not dragged, but will voluntarily participate as they always do, as well as long term US foreign policy, so look at whats been a very strong sector related to that, defense companies. To mention just a few, look at how LMT, RTN, ATK, etc are doing.


    Look at the growth of drones and stocks that build them, NOC for example.


    Just a few examples for you.
    20 Aug 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Won't argue about term trends. But as far as how to analyze all the geo-political info, and how markets might react to that, I could not begin to do that.


    Like defense companies. Yes, this country won't quit spending on defense. But will the pace increase or decrease? When we get another recession, will there be defense cutbacks? Is Raytheon allowed to sell misslile systems abroad? If so, will those countries keep buying from Raytheon when China or others catch up technology-wise for a cheaper price?


    I don't know. Any analysis based on world events, for me, would at best be a guess as to how a defense company might do. If I were to buy RTN again, it would be because of checking out the company itself rather than what's going on in the world.
    20 Aug 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    You just can't make this stuff up. Yet I am sure many still believe manipulations NEVER happen !!
    19 Aug 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • They sure are giving ol' JP Morgan the business, lately... Adding the stock to my watch list. ;)
    19 Aug 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • These articles/investigations on JPM are so frequent I don't pay much attention to them. in the end, it seems JP is never held accountable for anything. Supposedly they have manipulated silver prices for years and if that is true they are clearly getting away with it. Annoying and frustration which i why i have come to ignore news about JPM.
    19 Aug 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » PER TOM LUONGO


    @IT The energy market investigation is old news... what is news is that it's moved beyond the CFTC and to the Justice Dept. It looks like Goldman is moving to take out JPM. This is beginning to get interesting.
    20 Aug 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Wonder what JAMIE did ? It is obvious other banks did the same but to single out JP MORGUE ??


    Tip of the iceberg folks!


    Just wait until the day finally comes when they investigate them for real manipulating the metals !! Say it ain't so >>>
    19 Aug 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe his vig envelope to the DNC was light last month...
    19 Aug 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » He had to do something the FED did not like !!


    BTW Sanchez threw an INT in the first half this weekend. I collected on that bet !


    Horses are next on Wednesday with the wife. Our day out where I get to handicap what I THINK I
    19 Aug 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • I'll take the #7 horse to place in the third race. ;)
    19 Aug 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Sanchez throwing an INT in the first half of any game this year is a pretty safe bet because he sucks.
    19 Aug 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rich,


    Stop sugar-coating things... ;)
    19 Aug 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry John... it comes from over 40 years of futility watching my Jets. Every 5-6 years they get another inept QB and refuse to admit he was not the correct pick or trade. it is a devastating repetitive cycle they go through. They should have signed Peyton Manning when they had the chance. Time to package Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan and send them to anybody for a bag of fresh new footballs.
    20 Aug 2013, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JBT


    DONTDRAGMESHOPPIN was the 7 horse in the 3rd race and paid $13.40 to place, and $7.70 to show.


    Thanks for the tip !! It did finish 2nd >>>
    22 Aug 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • No problem... Had I been there and bet, the horse surely would have broke a leg coming out of the first turn. :)
    22 Aug 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Is that thoroughbred racing or harness?
    22 Aug 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Harness !!
    22 Aug 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Are there any hardcore harness fans here? Ever hear of the USTA main harness racing magazine? Its called "Hoof Beats." The next issue comes out in a week or so. The cover this month is a photo I took at the finish line of the Hambletonian August 3rd :-)

    22 Aug 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @ROS


    Congrads on that pic. However I can do you one better. A few years ago my stable was interviewed for an article in Hoof Beats. I mean quite a few years
    22 Aug 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Second Hambletonian cover in three years :-) ... and the one year in between I got a two page spread inside. I used to do freelance for the main guy at Belmont for thoroughbred years back but that ended. It's nice to stay connected on some level and I get the inside of the track which is a less common shot.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Saw an article on SA by a CPA/CFA and had to comment since it was in the top 10 articles of the day and was bashing gold. Agree with some of it, but had to fill in the blanks from my point of view. Here is the article (and my comment below - but you might want to read article first);


    Why Gold And Silver Prices Are Not Headed For The Stratosphere



    We are still in a deflationary credit contraction that is actually dollar bullish (hence the rise in the dollar and fall in gold since Sept. 2011) and is putting pressure on gold. Wrote about it in my book "Buy Gold and Silver Safely," Chapter 4.


    You bring up Japan, but you don't mention the fact that gold rose priced in Yen. We are heading to a point where the dollar AND gold will be rising together, a point I will be making in my next book, "Illusions of Wealth" which will expand upon Chapter 4 of my first book.


    For now, the dollar still matters as far as gold goes and in the short term (last couple months) we have seen a fall in the dollar and rise in gold. What gold bugs don't understand, and I sell gold for a living, is that what happens if the dollar continues to rise? How much pressure will that put on gold over the short term? Even with Fed QE et al (there will be no tapering)?


    We'll have to wait and see.


    But gold's long term outlook is rosy. Doesn't have to be in the "stratosphere" to be good insurance for one's portfolio. The purchasing power of silver since 1964 when they stopped minting quarters and dimes in silver hasn't been too bad either. Can still buy a gallon of gas for the price of a 1964 quarter (converted to the scrip of the day)!
    20 Aug 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Doug - Reading some of your previous comments I gather you were long DUST and long term PM bullish. Are you still maintaining that stance?
    20 Aug 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • rodh7858, no, got bitten on DUST and switched to NUGT and got some of my losses back. Still down on the DUST trade after the the NUGT gains overall though. I simply stayed in too long and thought we were at a double top on gold and double bottom on dollar.


    I do however think we are going lower again on gold and higher on the dollar.


    Long term, it matters not.


    Finally leaving the desert after writing for the last month or so, but still have much work to do once back in San Diego where I will finish up, so won't have much time to visit here (but still peak in now and then).
    20 Aug 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • about gold and what not:


    So last week, feeling the market jitters & noticing that gold was on the upswing, I decided to take my cash and load up on (NUGT). Well it was a smart move, the first day I was up over $30,000. For the first time ever, the market took a dive and my portfolio(s) were up! What a thrill that was. I guess it took watching Dr. Ken rolling in the dough in our portfolio challenge to convince me that gold can actually be a good investment.


    After IT yelled at me, my brother called me 3 times yelling at me, I did sell half the position. Today it looks like I should have continued to hold it....but then it's okay to take some off the table too & book the profits. I'll continue to hold the remaining position, as by hook or by crook, gold is hanging in there & continues to go up a little every day. On the other hand, if it gets anywhere near my sell price, I will sell it all.


    (JPM) is one of my stocks. Back off, I say! Another example of gov't over reaching. Good grief, like no company any where in the world ever hired a douchebag because of their connections?? Go after the rest of 'em or leave (JPM) alone. At least they know how to make money....the gov't could learn from them. That's right, (JPM) is better run than any gov't dept. In fact, throw everyone in Washington DC out of a job, including the fools in congress, and let Jaime Dimon run the whole dam* thing. We'd all be better off.
    20 Aug 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • What is the link to the spreadsheet for the contest?
    By the way (NUGT) is going to 12 in a hurry soon.
    20 Aug 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. Ken, I'll send it to you in a dm.
    20 Aug 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • @ Bluesky


    That's fantastic. I'm jealous of course. But good to know it worked for you. (My gold money so far is only in monopoly money.)


    @Dr. K


    I went to the blog to see why you're saying $12.


    You've got on the chart that insiders bought it end of day - and during the day they kept price down to buy lower at those points?


    Also how can you tell it's insiders? and why $12?


    21 Aug 2013, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • Nasdaq & tech is doing better day after day lately... Any ideas why?


    I'll give my guess:
    Several cornerstones were beaten down recently (IBM), (MSFT). But in general market decline, they'd be seen as solid "stable" to get into?
    21 Aug 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • @CURLS


    Do you day trade? Or do you make frequent changes to your "real-life" portfolio? If not then I have to ask why you even wish to analyze daily or weekly movement in the market...
    "Several cornerstones were beaten down recently (IBM), ("


    Inevitably "cornerstones" like those two will suffer short-term on just about any down market news and 99 times out of 100 will rebound when that news becomes yesterday's news. I am not sure that monitoring daily or even weekly "trends" will help you predict the future since many of these short term trends are a result of "sudden" news no one expected. I liken it to a football player like Adrian Petersen. Week to week he is expected to go out and put up big numbers, so if you get the first pick in the draft you grab him. You base your pick on long term results so when he pulls up lame one game in week 6 with a pulled muscle it is something completely unexpected and unless you knew it in advance you would pick him first 100 out of 100 times.
    To me daily news in the markets is the same. Analysis of every day is not going to help you predict the future because everything changes so drastically every day. A confrontation breaks out overseas that we didn't anticipate and the markets react but not possibly knowing that, you would not have made any moves.
    My point is this... why get so deep into analysis and uptight about what happens in the market on a daily basis unless you are a day trader? I am long in just about all my investments so the one bad day here and there no longer bothers me. As I have said before they are ultimately a small blip in the big picture.
    When I try to learn about stocks I look at any and all long-term indicators and rarely pay attention what is going on any one day unless of course it is game-changing news which is often not the case.
    I just think individuals and groups of individuals over react to any news and all I can deduce is that since there are so many day traders and short-term traders in the market, that wil always be the case but when it comes to my long-term choices, most of that daily nonsense simply means nothing. In fact when a good stock is beaten down on recent trends or news i think that makes them a great buy. Let's see if my theory is correct where IBM and MSFT are concerned. In mid July MSFT was $36.50 and is now $32. That is about 11% down. IBM was $205 and is now $186. That is down about 10%. Those drops reflect about 5 weeks. Lets see if in the next 5 weeks if and how far they rebound. It may take a little more than the same five week period but i say they both get back most if not all of those losses which would in effect make the short term news almost meaningless UNLESS you are smart enough to buy on the dips. IBM is too high priced for me but just for fun I will put my imaginary portfolio money where my mouth is...I am adding MSFT to our challenge to test my theory.
    Just my two cents.
    21 Aug 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • By the way CURLS, I am not trying to be a wise guy with my post. i am also learning and just feel my theory has legs so I want to see if I am correct and will do so by using our challenge to go for some MSFT :-)
    21 Aug 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • @ ROS


    Not sure why my questions are bothering you.


    I'm interested in the answers. I'm very curious what info, experienced investors can add here.


    If, as you describe, the answers don't matter to you -- then my questions are ignorable by you.


    "uptight "
    I didn't express any emotion in my questions. If you think you saw emotion, then it's your own projected in.


    I don't need to justify myself & I feel like you're asking me to. I'll add a few things along those lines though:


    1) I want to understand the markets better. The day to day movements and news impacts, ARE part of that. I've done the buy and ignore for years. You aren't pointing out anything, I haven't done and done well. I had not much reaction to the 3 crashes my money has been through. I'm hardly in need to dealing with emotions like that.


    2) I have potential interest in day trading. I may like to supplement my long term investing with swing and day trading.


    3) I'm simply curious. I see patterns. When I've asked before, the answers have been most interesting... not at all irrelevant to my understanding how the market works. I've never seen the indices so out of sync. So I wonder if it's often that way at the beginnings of downturns.


    4) When picking a point to sell, or buy, these shorter term information can make a difference... not just fundamentals. As you mention, many things tends down when the market is down.


    5) I'm in cash, so I've made a short term trade type decision with my money, so the short term fundamentals matter. I'm not interested in the old, dollar cost average "no matter what." It's not right for my timeline. Nor for my knowledge of the market based on the past. I have my personal reasons.


    6) I come from a cultural background where no question is EVER dumb. Time and again, I've been amazed at how much some little peep, with no credentials, has changed the course of history, with a little irrelevant question. Mine aren't at that caliber. But I stand by my background -- NO question is ever too dumb, or irrelevant to ask.


    7) I'm trying to develop my instincts. That takes watching. Listening. Looking at the noise, and the non-noise... and at some point instincts improve.


    8) Those cornerstones you're claiming went down because the market did -- went down BEFORE the market did. Maybe were part of why the market went down. Nasdaq's been oddly positive while the rest of the market is down. So it's a good question to ask -- what's up with that?


    So I understand that these type questions don't interest you or fit into your plans. Please understand that they do interest me, and fit into what I want to learn. :-).
    21 Aug 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • @ ROS


    Of course your theory has legs. It's buy and hold. It should be done with some awareness and thought (picking sectors, capsize...). I can tell it's a known method that works. Personally my money grew nicely over 15 years, using largely buy and hold (some ignore, some kind of looking once in a while.) My instincts that I used all those years, had me pull out for now & try to learn instead... so I'm sticking with my instincts.
    21 Aug 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • @Curls,


    "Not sure why my questions are bothering you."
    They don't.. You are taking my post incorrectly


    "I'm interested in the answers. I'm very curious what info, experienced investors can add here."
    I agree 100%. I am too


    "I don't need to justify myself & I feel like you're asking me to."
    No, not at all. I was merely using your post as an example to ask questions. I honestly never understood (other than day traders) why there is so much analysis and concern on any particular day of the markets in general or any specific stocks. I have found so often that any one day of news is just that, one day of news and once it becomes old news it is insignificant. My example with MSFT was already proven correct on a small and quick one day scale. MSFT went down recently based on some news… 11% over the last month and my point was that news, as it gets stale will no longer affect the stock and in fact it will rebound making it a nice buy after the recent beat down. Lo and behold it jumped 2.5% today after I bought in (in our contest) and I suspect over the next month or two will wash away that 11% drop.


    That;s all I was trying to illustrate. My comment to you based on your post about short term analysis was meant to be a general observation and question as to why people over-react to one day of news.


    if you thought my post was an attack of any kind, know that it was not at all. I was never asking you to justify yourself… only making the observation that in this case you were reading a lot into short term news and my point was, that happens a lot in the markets and my response to it all is not sweating the small stuff when you are a long term investor.


    There was no individual put down or attack in my post at all.. or certainly not intended and I made that point in my second post immediately after. so not sure why you took as such. Hope this clears it up a bit.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • @ROS


    " I was merely using your post as an example "


    By making it about me specifically & not saying it's generic, it makes it personal.


    "making the observation that in this case you were reading a lot into short term news and my point was, that happens a lot in the markets and my response to it all is not sweating the small stuff when you are a long term investor."


    Again, that's personal suggestion to me on how I personally should / could think. It wasn't really worded as "suggestion" but more strongly as "direction."


    So I'm glad to hear it wasn't meant personally. When I read you're 2nd post, I kind of figured out so. By then I'd already posted my long response. However, I'm glad you posted this explanation, because it was still looking a bit personal to me.


    Though at no point did I take it as attack.


    So no problem. Glad to hear this explanation though.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • "IBM is too high priced for me but just for fun I will put my imaginary portfolio money where my mouth is...I am adding MSFT to our challenge to test my theory."


    For those of you that missed it, I presented a theory just three days ago where I pointed out that sharp price drops of solid stocks in a short period of time due to some kind of news was just that... short term and could indeed lead to a nice rebound windfall. I pointed out that Microsoft fell 11% in less than a month and I was confident it would rebound. As a result and to test the theory I used our portfolio challenge to buy 300 shares of (MSFT). In 2 days.... thats TWO days, the stock has rebounded back from $32 to today's $34.50. That recovers 7.5% of the loss already in two days and for those that bought on the dip, you would be up .$2.50/share. In my case of 300 shares that would give me $750 in two days on a $10k investment. Hmmm 7.5% return in two days. Pretty good.


    In the end my point was and still is this.... Daily news in the market can beat down a good stock and when it does its a great time to buy. I am no day trader and I am not suggesting anyone go that route because its a tough way to win but its a good idea to keep your eyes out for these solid companies that were beaten down short-term because of one or two days of news that brings the market down. I still suspect MSFT is a good one to have for a bit and will keep mine in the challenge to see if i get back to and above that original $35.50 level any time soon. I can't think of any better example than this to show how dramatic human emotion in the market can affect any and all stocks in the short term. Well, as I said in the original post, that's just my two cents... which, by the way is already up to 3.5 cents in two days thanks to MSFT. :-)
    23 Aug 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • @ ROS


    You're using the argument in one direction, but dropping it in the other.


    (MSFT) was down on earning and news. It was up on news! A change of CEO is now planned.


    Now, chances are the change of CEO, is based on the poor performance that gave the 11% drop. What I noticed in April with (IBM) is that after a disappointing earnings it dropped 10% or more. Then "out of the blue" a few weeks later, they announced buybacks and acquisitions, the stock rebounded nicely.


    Obviously it wasn't out of the blue. They knew in advance of earnings announcement that it'd be poor, and surely had plans of what to do about it. (MSFT) I'd bet had the same thing in mind.


    So when a solid company tanks off something not centrally huge, I'd bet that in a few weeks or so, they'd have a plan that does something about it.


    What I'd add to your insight, is that it's not that bad news is a blip. It's that "good news" follows, that's planned in order to counter the blip. It's not simply that "bad news" is merely noise, and that a stock automatically stabilizes back up afterward.


    Please do let me know the next time you see a beaten down solid stock. I didn't buy this time (way too unfocused), but will in the future.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Another question for the experienced folks....


    Often indices move together. Maybe more or less pronounced, but very similar. As this (apparently a) correction starts, indices are very varied. Moment to moment, one's moving up when another is standing still...


    So is this typical during downturns, or starts of them? As there's general selling, but the buy on dips is in specific desirable stocks?
    21 Aug 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • This is a nothing day until the Fed minutes are out. Nothing interesting ever happens until the release... then we watch an episode of "Algos Gone Wild" for a bit and then the markets close near VWAP. :)


    If that doesn't happen then it will prick up my ears, as it were.
    21 Aug 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Bingo Tom...forget valuations...what's the Fed saying? lol


    Do I buy NUGT or DUST? haha...


    Looks like DUST was the winner.
    21 Aug 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Just saw an interesting and favorable article on one of the stocks I have in the challenge and am strongly considering in my real portfolio so I thought I would share. I have watched (CSCO) for a long time and have considered owning some for just as long, something I may very well be in soon....

    21 Aug 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Hello to my SA friends from Africa! :-) It is the trip of a lifetime! It may become a contract down the road...fingers crossed! :-)


    It is 30 minutes passed noon here.




    The Fed is only noise IMHO. The only thing that counts is (and always was, valuation).


    Some stocks are quite cheap. Bought (XRX) on Monday and another chunk yesterday.




    Krustyman ;-)
    22 Aug 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @KRUSTY


    Glad to hear from you. We started a 100k portfolio Challenge where you can trade anytime and we will look at the results next July. So if you on again you can ask me for the link if you want to start either now or when you get home.


    We have 15 players now and would love to have you join in.


    Hope you stayed away from those big animals out there.
    22 Aug 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Hi there, IT!


    Big animals? They are all on Wall Street! lol ;-)


    Yes, I would like to participate to the 100k portfolio. How does it work?


    22 Aug 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Krusty



    Here is the latest chapter. Basicially use 100k and pick what you want to own at your own pace. Once you join you will be given the link to all of the participants and our portfolios.


    If you trade during the day you get that days closing price, Once that trading day is over and you post a trade you get the next days opening price. No day trading allowed using a timestamp.


    We needed to make it simple to follow. As you play along you will learn and can go back and read prior chapters that are specific only to this challenge. Unlimited trades are allowed however only a max of 10 different symbols can be used !


    Please ask anything you'd like !
    22 Aug 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hope everyone digested their morning coffee.



    Anyone hear from FEAR?
    22 Aug 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • @IT:


    So I post my stocks and amount under that link, correct?
    22 Aug 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @KRUSTY


    Yes, you post what you want to buy and all the info . We have 2 people who input that into the spreadsheet for us !
    22 Aug 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » How many shares you are buying, the symbol, or a dollar amount and the shares will be figured out by those who take care of the spreadsheet.


    Like if you started today you will now get todays closing price since the post is being done during the trading day. So no rush as you can post at 3.59 and get the same price as posting it now !
    22 Aug 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The gold train seems to be picking up steam, as well as interest rates!!


    FED is losing it's grip on this..
    22 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • @IT The loss of control is occurring in SE Asia. Last night's bloodbath is spilling over today. Watch the 10 yr yield after POMO ends. Right now it's down at 2.88% but it wants to run to 3%


    Against this backdrop Gold could run to $1400 by tomorrow's close.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TOM


    I TRY to show the macro events and what can happen but am dismissed as people are only looking at Corps. balance sheets it seems.


    What can you do ?
    22 Aug 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe we are overly worried about the Fed. Let interest rates go up, that will actually help those countries in crisis right a few months it will all even out. We have weathered this recent drop in the US markets, which we needed. I've been listening to business reports & reading articles about the emerging markets getting pummeled. The Indian rupee going to an all time high of 64 to the dollar. However, if interest rates are allowed to rise in India, then investors will flock there to get that higher return. Also, everything in India becomes cheaper in dollar terms, which is good for India in the sense that their cheaper products (and services) should attract more buyers.


    In another quarter or 2, we will be in a better place. The Fed is causing people to overly worry about tapering. Just do it....get it over with. In the long run we will be fine.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Anybody buying today? Stocks are cheaper than they were a few weeks ago.


    I may start buying a little here & there, adding to positions.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • @ Blue


    I'm holding off. I may day trade. Today would have been perfect - but I slept in late...and missed it. Still looking.


    On longer term - I expect another downturn around end of Sept. The tapering fears, and an good article I read outlining the political decisions needed at that point, that will of course leave chaos around then and into Oct. So good buying times may still come.


    I expect a pop before then, mini-bounce. Not sure if this is that, or it's just a traditional mix of up days within bunch of down. Or it's a new direction for a bit, with the "news" that tapering is "??- not gung ho." (if that's what that news was yesterday.)


    There's also that it's 11am. Market often changes pattern at this time of day. Dribbles off even for rest of day... Turns down for a while, or up for a while... So,


    So take this as IMHO, as not very experienced!
    22 Aug 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • curls,


    I'm with you. This little set back so far, does it even qualify as a correction? The markets down roughly 3%, thats really nothing more than a blip. I think we will see a lot more downside before we see a lot more upside, but I can't predict dates as well as you.


    I suppose someone might want to look at REITS if they are looking for something that has fallen pretty fast pretty far, that is, if you think the REITS will turn up at some point despite higher rates.


    The small caps (IWM) (RUT) and tech (QQQ) have been holding on pretty well, if they start to break down that will be a stronger confirmation of the downside, but until then this is just bouncing around a bit.


    After 6 down days in a row the market is overdue for a bounce.
    See what happens with SPY if it can get over its 50 day MA and go to 168, then up through resistance or breakdown.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • @ Blue


    On political events coming up (you've posted about before)... nicely laid out to effect the market's mood....
    22 Aug 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Curls, I agree with the article, Congress is great at accomplishing nothing, except when it comes to messing up the markets, the economy, tax reform, etc. etc!


    We have the election in November, so even less will be expected of these dumbos in Congress because they will have to campaign. Pass a budget? Oh h*ll no, that would be getting something done. Can't expect those bozos to actually get our economy going by taking on real work & ***gasp**** working together.


    There's an old saying, "you have to spend money to make money." It's so true. If you don't start the ball rolling by infusing cash, then nobody wants to open their wallet. If we would all spend more cash, we could prod the economy into higher gear.


    It's somewhere around 70% of the economy is actually what you and I our cars, consume gas to do that, buy clothes, food, laundry detergent, travel (spend money on restaurants & hotels), send kids to school - all that "stuff" that we do in our daily lives makes the economy hum. Right now we need to eat out, buy new clothes (wish they were made in the USA) and maybe replace some appliances. Our cars are over 10 years old, but we're not replacing them yet. I'm waiting for a small cheap electric car - one made in the USA of course, to replace my old car with.


    My doctor told me a long time ago not to get too involved in politics It's the worst thing for my blood pressure.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Bozo's and dumbo's, won't find many who would disagree with that characterization! Very nice.


    The problem with prodding the economy by spending is there are too many people with too few dollars to do that.
    Guess it will be left to the wealthy, or higher income folks to prod the economy. They better get prodding pronto.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I wonder how the markets would react if a budget is passed but funding for O'bamacare is not included?


    This is seriously being discussed..
    22 Aug 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I cant believe that will ever happen. The Dems control the senate.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TAMPAT


    Some of them are up for re election though? In fact it was a DEM who said he was in favor of doing this !


    Could be interesting !!
    22 Aug 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I'll believe it when I see it.


    As for who said what, well, you know the old saying about how do you know when a politician is lying???


    (His lips move)
    22 Aug 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gotta love that the NASDAQ isn't trading and all hell has broken loose. Just shows how computers cause major moves!!


    A flash freeze? But the Spiders are trading, Don't they contain shares now halted on the NASDAQ??


    I just had a flashback ! Deja Vue all over again...


    22 Aug 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FBN'S Charlie Gasparino just said that potentially the small investor got hosed !!


    Cisco, Microsoft, Ebay, etc just started to trade yet the S&P SPIDERS contain these stocks. So how did they price it? 2200 symbols frozen and no reason why?????


    How can you trade an index when stocks were frozen for hours that are contained in that index. Will they void those trades?


    Even the POTUS is now involved. TERRORIST? 3 HOUR BLACKOUT !!!
    22 Aug 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • IT, it's not a conspiracy! Stop watching Fox news, it's not good for your health. Look at your trading system....yikes! I would have to go on major meds to trade like you. As it is, (NUGT) is killing me. I'm convinced it will go a little higher....and then I'm out! I like stocks that don't need babysitting.


    (JNJ) (KO) (LO) (MO) and a whole bunch of DGI blue chip stocks are on sale right now.
    22 Aug 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Ah, I had to throw that in just to get some


    BTW I told you to sell (NUGT)... Just sayin>>>
    22 Aug 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • I have to ask... what is all the anti- Fox Business News about? Is it because their opinions are more like the Democrats than Republicans? I don't know, just asking. Other than trying to pick good candidates at election time I try not to be all "political" in my daily life. I don't read the Daily News instead of the Post because its left or right. I buy whatever is available and if I am about to spend a lot of time waiting in the doctor's office I buy both. The only reason I don't buy the NY Times is price... nothing to do with political views of the paper of writers. I don't watch or refrain from watching a business channel because it's left or right. I don't even understand half that crap. I watch Fox because they have a lot of good resources, are up to the minute with news and have excellent guests.


    I have never liked or subscribed to being to the left or right and I certainly do not believe everything either party believes "just because." I have a friend who is the most vocal anti-Democrat I have ever met and no matter what the issue or what the degree of belief in an issue, he takes the Republican view... To me that is being a puppet, a servant, a close-minded imbecile who simply believes in issues "just because." I hear people stand strong on issues because their party does, not necessarily because it is what they truly believe. if you are Republican does that mean you MUST take a stand on every single issue with that mindset? I never understood all that. I believe in issues because I do, not because they are the issues under either platform. When someone asks which party I am I say neither because I certainly do not believe in "everything" either of them put out there.
    I believe the government should help those in need, especially those who have worked all their lives in the US and now need their help. At the same time I do not believe our government should just throw money at people who are able but don't get off their asses to find work. Yet, I am accused of being Democratic if I favor helping those in need. I could give two sh*ts which side of politics my views lean toward. When elections come up I look at the candidates, their record and their platforms without looking at their party. I voted for Clinton and I voted for Romney, because in both cases I thought they were the best choices at the time.
    Anyway, my original question is about Fox Business. What do they represent that has some, like Blue bashing them because I don't get it.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • In my opinion playing the (NUGT) and (DUST) ping pong game is a recipe for disaster. Just look at our portfolio contest. In one week Dr K soared to plus $32k and then dropped half the following week. Yes, he is still up but those are big swings and when the downtrend is bigger than the uptrend, one can lose a boatload of money. I do not believe that is a wise way to invest. You can lose your shirt trying that one and for those of us simply unable to experience a drastic loss if the plan doesn't work, its a poor way to invest IMO.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rich,


    It could be "Fox Here Is a Bag of Free Money", and some people would rail against it. It's the 'Fox' part that draws ire. Much like 'Obama' does for myself.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • So ROS, you're an independent...lots of us out there.


    I can't tell which business channel to watch. CNBC seems to do the most drama - which is the quickest way to figure out what topics I need to google, as I turn off the TV.
    22 Aug 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • I don't get CNBC (/sadface)... I get Bloomberg and FBN. I watch neither. ;) On the off occasion I have one or the other on (like the flash crash thing, etc.), the TV is usually muted, and I just read the tickers and headline scrollers from time to time.


    MW and SA are my main sources for news related to the stock market.
    22 Aug 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • lol I know just how to make fun of you IT, you really remind me of my brother. He watches Fox news too. You could be twins!
    22 Aug 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    I already like your brother. Girls on that show don't hurt the eyes either. I did not know they talk though. I also use the mute button and just watch the ticker most of the time !
    22 Aug 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • I like Fox more but it has zero to do with political views. I find the channel very informative. i think Varney is interesting and several of the other reporters as well. I have watched CNBC and they are fine too but i just like Fox a bit more. Aside from the good reporting, Fox has some impressive eye candy for us guys too.... Nicole Pettalides and Diane Macedo are beautiful to name two and a few other nice ones as well. Hey, good news is important but impressive visual content works too.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, that's eye candy alright. Not that I don't like what comes out of Nicoles mouth either.
    I don't watch much Fox News or TV news in general. But I cannot not handle MSNBC for one. They constantly just pump the propaganda and slant everything so far to the left it's ridiculous. Sure, Fox hammers the Democrats, but they offer a lot of of material to be hammered with. My problem is that journalists need to be helping question the government, not acting as their propaganda arm. Many think Fox is anti-Obama, anti-Democrat. If you ask me, they just offer an alternative to the propaganda arm of the current leadership.
    I'd love to see a 3rd party come in and fix some things. It seems neither the Dems or Reps are worth anything for many decades.
    23 Aug 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @PP


    Welcome to our discussions. Interested in playing along in our portfolio challenge?


    Continue to post along as well.
    24 Aug 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks IT, I'm interested. I haven't ever played with stocks. Just funds in my retirement accounts and rollover IRAs. But I'm thinking about seeing what I might do in the future. Your challenge seems like a great way for me to experiment! Thanks!
    26 Aug 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Here is the challenge. Basically you start off with the max of 10 symbols and 100k. The blog explains the timeline so look forward to you joining in.


    Once you post what you want to buy you will be given the link to monitor everyone's portfolio. Welcome..
    26 Aug 2013, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know, they yacked about that all afternoon on CNBC. So small investors got hosed? I don't trade that often, so it didn't affect me. The whole market was stalled, so I don't know how that gave anyone an advantage.


    The traders were the most upset (the ones that trade futures, etc) because they felt like they were "unprotected." I don't even understand what they do, but if nobody can trade, aren't all things "equal" or as "equal" as they will ever be? From what they described about the systems, it sounds like the whole thing should collapse every day. Legacy systems on top of legacy systems. I used to work at a major insurance company on a legacy system as a computer programmer. The main code was done in the 1960's and we were making changes in the 1990's. Talk about outdated, inefficient and a pile of was awful.


    What they need is a new trading system based on modern code.


    Until then, expect problems. Like the other day when Goldman lost a 100 million. Oh well.
    22 Aug 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • BSF,


    Are you saying that the stock exchanges are still using those old legacy systems, or were you just referring to the one's you worked on at the insurance company?
    22 Aug 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tampat, they had an expert on CNBC today discussing the legacy computer systems in use at the Nasdaq, and likely all the stock exchanges. It will cost at least a billion or more to build a state of the art new system....and who knows if it will work if it ever goes live. All day people were screaming on CNBC about how dangerous these legacy systems are.


    One of the major problems is you have the NYSE, the Nasdaq, and how many other stock exchanges, all interacting with each other. Ever hear of the term "dark pools?" I had heard it, & now have a greater understanding of the term. It refers to the "dark pools" of the system, where transactions can be lost or go haywire. With a legacy system, those black pools are hard to detect & fix.


    What happened with Goldman Sachs the other day, that they lost a $100 million on "errant trades?"


    Another huge problem are the "high frequency trades" which we as individual investors can't even see coming, yet we can be wiped out. Remember the "flash crash" a few years ago? So the market fell a thousand points (don't recall exactly how much) in a matter of minutes, and this caused all those limit trades that were in place to sell....causing massive selling. Then a few minutes later....the market was back up. Some people lost their stocks at ridiculously low prices, and therefore lost a bundle.


    Wasn't Madoff the head of the Nasdaq in the past? Figures.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • The 'flash crash' was a lesson on setting better stops. You should never set a 'ridiculously low' stop-loss. Doing so defeats the purpose.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JBT


    Actually I disagree about stops. I have chatted with some very big investors who now NEVER use stops. If you remember that FLASH CRASH I was told they blew through their low stops and by time it sold it was already back above what they lost it for.


    To this day one guy cannot get over his loss as it took him over a year to make it back !
    22 Aug 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • My brokerhouse, lets you set stop limit with a lower bracket value too. So it will sell only while in that range.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • I don't use them at all myself. I don't buy stocks that would be subject to massive drops.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » That flash crash no one expected massive drops either.. that is my point;)


    I bet you own some now that could have blown through some serious low stops. However if you never use them you would not have been subjected to it.


    Good advice though.. Now you want to pick another horse? Had a profitable day so it looks like Monday it's back to the track !
    22 Aug 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • John... no such thing. I bet Enron stockholders had the same thought at one time.
    22 Aug 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • If it ever happens to one of my stocks, I will gladly plant my foot firmly in my mouth. I won't cry like a little bitch about it, either. ;) Diversification and at least semi-equal asset weighting as a percentage of a total portfolio is something everyone should try to achieve.


    I shed no tears for those who "lost it all" in the collapse of Enron.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • BSF,


    Thanks for the info. I had forgotten about the relevance of computer systems as maybe being relevant to a future crash scenario.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » IMPLODING??


    Key JPMorgan lawyer leaving bank...
    2:54 PM JPM


    Amid a growing number of lawsuits and regulatory investigations, Michael Coyne - JPMorgan's (JPM) lawyer in charge of handling such matters - is leaving the bank to become general counsel of Union Bank. He's been with JPMorgan for 21 years and in 2010 became responsible for litigation and government investigation matters worldwide.
    26 Aug 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • On small cap run up:


    "Small companies have a history of outperforming during periods of rising bond yields, and they have held true to form in the past three months. Pyramus Global Advisors, in its piece “U.S. Small Caps: Outperformers During Rising Rate Environments,” showed that in the period from 1979 through March 2012, small caps lagged large caps when 10-year Treasury yields were falling (with an average annual return of 11.5% to 12.09% for the S&P 500) but outperformed when rates were rising (13.94% to 13.38%). "


    ---- Is this true? Wonder why.


    ....."On a longer-term basis, it’s also important to keep in mind that although small-cap stocks are generally thought to outperform large caps over time, they lose their performance advantage once they are compared to an equal-weighted — instead of capitalization-weighted — large-cap index."


    ----well, that's important. Anyone have more info? Does that mean DGI beats smallcaps?


    22 Aug 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • It's annoying when they lump every company into one category, one size fits all. There must be plenty of small caps that are crappy, and some that are great.


    Look for high quality companies, in whatever category. David Fish's CCC list can point you in the right direction. His research shows best of breed, reliable companies with decades of dividends, increasing every year. It's a good place to start. The CCC refers to Champions, Challengers & Contenders. The Champions are best of breed. David updates his spreadsheet every quarter, too.


    Here's his profile on SA

    22 Aug 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Curls, one more thing to be careful of. If a stock trades less than 250,000 shares a day, that could be a problem. I read that somewhere here on SA, to be careful of thinly traded companies.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Thought provoking article on the long term investment worthiness of electric utility companies:

    23 Aug 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Can I ask a dopey question? Prior to 1971 it was illegal to hold bullion, right? How did jewelers make a living? How did they buy gold, what did it cost? Did they sell it for gold standard price levels?


    I am confused.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • "Order 6102 specifically exempted "customary use in industry, profession or art"—a provision that covered artists, jewellers, dentists, and sign makers among others."


    From Wikipedia.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Wasn't illegal fish...could hold $100 worth. But yes, jewelers were exempt.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • I guess with all those loopholes it was impossible to actually confiscate, and the same goes for now. People worry about confiscation, but it is impossible if jewelers can get it. Hell, I'll become a freaking jeweler, it'll be like being a legal meth dealer.
    23 Aug 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • If it DID happen (it won't), the regulations would be onerous. Doctor's can legally prescribe narcotics, but you don't see a lot of people rushing out to become doctors so they can hang out on the corner and deal Vicodin.


    I imagine there would be audits. Lots and lots of audits. Jewelers, dental labs, etc. would have to keep themselves squeaky clean.
    23 Aug 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Where have all the anti gold and silver bugs gone??


    Hiding again. Funny how they only come out when they THINK they know where the price is heading !!
    23 Aug 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • @IT or have been tipped off by TPTB. ;)
    23 Aug 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • The gold bugs were pretty quiet there for awhile, too. :)


    Reminds me of a movie quote:


    "Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does."
    23 Aug 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am not a gold bug, but I do like having a few pieces laying around for that just in case BB screws up ( or when ) :)
    Never heard me say I wasn't happy owning mine !!


    Don't think we have fake jewelry dealers? Just come to NYC. We have one on every corner. lol


    I believe the Russians got the idea from them about selling Tungsten to those visiting our great city.


    Hint: If you do pay us a visit do yourself a favor, don't walk around looking up. First sign you don't belong here.


    Just sayin..
    23 Aug 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • I wasn't referring to you, actually. It just reminded me of how vocal the bugs were when gold had it's run. $5,000 by year end was the mantra (sometimes higher). It was at the point of becoming sickening, and "anti gold bugs" pretty much just wanted them to shut up.


    I hope to never again visit the state of New York, much less NYC proper.


    There will always be a black market in everything that is illegal. But thinking it would be as easy as just declaring yourself a jeweler so you could skirt government restrictions on owning gold is naive.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • @ John


    Some of NY is lovely!! And it's officially a different country than "down state" or "the city" as that country is known. Parts are stunningly beautiful (mountains, lakes), warm people, small town charm...
    23 Aug 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • No doubt there are good parts... Nothing I can't find closer to home, though. Get rid of metro areas, and I'd be willing to bet that all states are 'lovely'.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • @ John


    Been to Tennessee. Definitely lovely... And NY can definitely compete. Been in a lot of states and lots have something special. There are many parts of upstate NY that are poster-type special --- I've lived other places that aren't quite the same.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • JTN, your opinion of NY & NYC really makes me chuckle. Which probably means you think even less of NJ! I live less than 50 miles from NYC (in NJ) so I understand how you feel.


    All these years (since 1985) I've probably gone to NYC less than 30 times. Just no reason to go, & I hate crowds.


    Where we live in NJ is actually a beautiful place. It's quiet, a small town but of course, just off the NJ GSP (Garden State Parkway). After all these years, I've grown used to it.
    24 Aug 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry if it seemed like I was hating on NY... See my comment about removing metro areas - that's more how I feel. I've lived close to Chicago, Milwaukee, and now Memphis. Horrible places, all.


    I was just born to live in a more rural setting, I guess. :)
    24 Aug 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • One small detail you are all missing. Sure, there are parts of NY that are scenic and serene and many states share those qualities but what really makes a state are its people. I am from New York and there are far more jerks than nice people. I have visited cities in Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Vermont and Connecticut. I can say without a doubt the biggest jerks and highest in number reside in New York. Go to Boston, Chicago or Williamsburg and people smile and often strike up a conversation to a perfect stranger and if you ask for assistance they are more than happy to assist. In New York, you are ignored, get dirty looks when you sit next to someone on a bus or train and have to check your wallet to make sure its still there every ten minutes. Indeed the metro area is the worst but I have been to many parts of NY and while there are of course nice people, too often it is not the case.
    If family and work didn't force me to stay in NY, I would be out of here on the next bus, train, boat or plane. the cost of living stinks, the atmosphere both literally and figuratively stinks and too many of the people stink ... also both literally and figuratively.
    24 Aug 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • @ ROS


    I'd have to hugely disagree. Having spent much time in NY and lived and traveled in lots other areas both in US and overseas. In NY, lots of very warm caring people. Don't stab you behind your back while smiling to your front - you get what you get. Good humor, hard workers, always there as part of the community to pull together. Plus it's charming, and beautiful... and in parts, more so than many other states.


    For instance, it's when I came BACK to NY that I delighted in how people chatted with me in cashier lines. Wished me well on problems, and meant it sincerely. Had patience when someone was slow or having trouble. Missed that where I was at the time.


    Downstate has it's city charms but the city is a city with all that entails, but mixing that up with the HUGE rest of NY isn't fair to upstate. It's a different country. If you don't know what that means, or how important it is -- then you've never really been locally upstate. A downstate visitor to upstate is easy to spot from a mile away (sometimes literally).


    Besides, I don't think it's productive to be negative at a state, where several people here are fond of it.... It's not about investing. So can we let this line of conversation drop?
    24 Aug 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • It actually CAN be about investing. Look at in/outflux of people and businesses amongst the states. That ties in to things like real estate, and which businesses have large presences in a particular locale.


    There's really not much you can talk about that doesn't have at least some kind of investing undertones.
    24 Aug 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • @ John


    True but not the point of the topic here. And my thought was - if you find out it's something people take pride in, and not immediately relevant to investing... it's nice to let it go.... (which you'd done.)
    24 Aug 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I bet they still think a sub 1k is possible...:)
    23 Aug 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yup, hitting on all cylinders???



    Some will spin this as well..
    23 Aug 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • IT, the housing market is insane. How can young people afford to buy, let alone rent a home? The town I live in is just ridiculous. The schools are highly rated, so homes here cost even more. Just crazy.


    New construction is so shoddy, I would buy an older home that is well built instead. They don't even use wood anymore, it's all compressed particle board.


    There's no new construction where I live, unless you tear a house down. What few lots are left, the builders that own them want to build million dollar plus homes on, which nobody can afford. There are so many over million dollar homes for re-sale, you would think the builders would take notice. We still have a huge problem here in NJ. Over built at the high end, very few buyers for these huge mansions and many jobs left the state. Just went "poof!"


    Real estate recovered a tiny bit but why should prices ever go back up as high as they were?


    What's happening here is what is normal in other places. In the midwest, house prices never appreciated to dizzy heights. So we should get used to that, all over the country. It's all a question of supply and demand. We definitely still have an over supply in NJ, especially of huge mansions. Who wants to pay those property taxes, utilities and lawn maintenance? The builders are idiots.
    24 Aug 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • There's a house near me for sale, built in 1972 (brick home), on an acre lot for $75,000. Hard NOT to afford that, even on a "Wal-Mart" salary.


    In re: construction materials... I work a lot in new construction, and houses are all still framed with standard pine 2x4/6/10's. Sheathing has always been MDF ("compressed particle board"). These pesky little guys called inspectors drop in at every step of the build, and from my experience, in 100% of the cases, they are sticklers. They put a tape measure to every drain we run, and every joist we notch/bore. They count nails! Construction quality is up, not down.
    24 Aug 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • John.... what does "near you" mean. Where exactly??? TN?
    24 Aug 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, TN.



    Short commute to a major-metro area (Memphis). Job situation is good, especially for high-blue/white collar jobs. Cost of living is low, no state income tax, weather is great (IMO, of course).


    Monthly mortgage payment if you went conventional 30-year on that place is $302! I've drove by it, and it's not a run-down rickety shack. Even low-skilled workers would have no problem finding a job in Millington (small-ish town, about a 10-minute drive from the house).
    24 Aug 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    I live 60 miles outside the City and as you stated we are rural as well. I have been living here for 40 years, and the people are the friendliest I have ever been around.


    EVERYONE looks out for one another. The prices aren't bad for homes and I sit on my porch EVERY weekend chuckling and watch the traffic backed up for miles with all this who claim to hate Upstate NY.


    Not pointing out a finger here. But I have heard from all my friends who say "How can you live there" yet I ask "Why do you come up here on weekends". The traffic is just as bad as the Jersey shore traffic if you can believe that !


    Prices are still affordable and we have Express buses that get you into the Port Authority in less time then it took me to take a subway from Queens. Amazing just 60 miles away and a it is like a different world


    Now tie that into investing and you can also see who now carpools, who says they just don't go to the mall anymore to browse, and of course who are still underwater on their homes.


    Besides the cold weather our drinking water is clean, we have plenty of doctors and if you need a NYC specialist it is literally just one hour by car away ! In fact most people where I live commute to Manhattan daily.
    24 Aug 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    That comment about Construction quality I cannot say is the same here. I only wish it was that strict. Hence I am considering moving to South Carolina in a few years for the warmer weather and the cheaper cost of living.


    A slower lifestyle will suit me just fine as I age!!
    24 Aug 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I find that surprising, actually. They (code enforcement) are legally held liable for the national building codes, as well as state / local. State, and local in particular, can be even more stringent that the national codes (never less so).


    You don't have to purchase new construction if you aren't allowed to see pass/fails on inspections. Save the green tags (they have all the inspector info on them), and if at a future date a problem arises due to a code deficiency you will have legal recourse.


    I just have a hard time imagining a place where code enforcement is lax...
    24 Aug 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Cash does a lot of talking around here... Just sayin!!
    24 Aug 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Let the buyer beware, I guess. :)
    24 Aug 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Well John, you haven't seen what happens in NJ. Especially with construction! Think Sopranos. You get the idea.


    I was a realtor for over 10 years, now I'm just referral. I personally witnessed things that make you go "hmmmm."


    One guy who was eventually sent to prison, was paying off mayors, inspectors, zoning code panels, etc. He built a lot of housing in the area I live in, all sub standard. The FBI did a sting, and eventually got him, several local mayors & others. This was going on in the late 1990s early 2000s.


    He also owned all the local strip joints. I kid you not, there are developments with the stripper's names for streets.


    They couldn't pin him personally with murder, but several people did end up dead. Including a former girl friend.


    24 Aug 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • IT, you are lucky. It's not that unfriendly where I live, and really there a lots of great people in my town. Some are even former New Yorkers.


    I find that the reaction you get from people - strangers or otherwise - depends on your attitude. Even in NYC, I've had pleasant conversations with total strangers.


    But just in case, we have 2 very large German shepherds. You don't even have to train them, they know when to go after someone. Makes me feel very safe at home. ; )
    24 Aug 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • I've tried to avoid living near organized crime. As a realtor, I'm sure you did your best to make sure your clients avoided buying properties built by Mr. Soprano.


    I just deal with the inspectors "on the ground", and I speak from that experience. Try to grease their palms, and they'll call the cops and slap a stop-work order on a job immediately.
    24 Aug 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • John, that's what I like about rural areas, the total cost of living is so much less. My mom has a great house that my parents bought in the 1960s, in a very small town in Iowa. She manages to live very well in her retirement. The neighbors are fantastic too. I'm thinking of retiring there. May have to find somewhere to go during the winter, which can be brutal there.
    24 Aug 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    I have 2 watchdogs as well. Named 12 gauge and 20 gauge..


    24 Aug 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • sounds good IT! But my dogs would take you down before you could fire....ha!
    24 Aug 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Which reminds me about the law in NJ. So say a burglar broke into my house, and had a gun or knife at my throat....and my doggies attacked him. Well guess what, in the state of NJ I could be liable for that! And be sued, which the criminal could win - a civil suit, that is. So I have to pay the criminal - who is trying to kill me - when my dogs attack. WTH.


    I'm very careful with my dogs. Lots of people just looking for ways to make money with frivolous lawsuits here.
    24 Aug 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • It,


    I like the names of your watchdogs.


    I'm not really sure what my 5 dogs would do in the event of a stranger trying to break in, but I am sure of what my live-in friends Smith, Wesson and Remington would do.


    Our motto is:
    Due to the high cost of ammo, we will no longer fire a warning shot...
    24 Aug 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Defensive dogs are great to own. Our two have an affinity for my wife, and if anyone ever tried to do anything to her they would eat them. The lab/rott mix bite would hurt, too. I've tried to get chicken / rib bones away from that dog and it's like a vice.
    24 Aug 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • John, does your wife feed the doggies? Mine never leave my side. They are always within a few feet, asleep mostly ; ) I feed them, so maybe that's why. Although their favorite person is our son. He plays with them. What's funny is they clearly think he is the leader of our "pack." Can't imagine why....chuckling. Dogs are good readers of body language, and clearly we live for our son, guess they figured it out.
    24 Aug 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • She feeds them sometimes, but mostly our son does. She does let them sleep next to her in the bed when she sleeps in or naps. I guess I'm just the guy that yells at them. :) They still like me a lot, too, though.
    24 Aug 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • @IT and Tampat LOL. I have 4 guard dogs named Duke, Daisy, Honey and Calvin.
    24 Aug 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    That is why I have my little friends always locked and loaded !


    Someone enters my house uninvited they will leave toes first.!!!


    Awful dark in the suburbs at night...
    24 Aug 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @Tom


    I also forgot the newbie addition. Just nicknamed him Ruger !! People really don't feel comfortable with that red light on their forehead I was told..


    Oh well, I say just knock next time MOM !
    24 Aug 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • @IT That's cool. You do realize I'm talking about real dogs, right?


    My other dogs i don't like to talk about in public.
    25 Aug 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • So IT, who's going to win, the Jets or the Giants? I'm watching this game!
    24 Aug 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • I hope the Giants get squished, New England style. :)
    24 Aug 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • John, my sister lives in Mass. One of my all time favorite days was when the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The one the Pats were supposed to win, until they met up with the Giants. Best Super Bowl ever!
    24 Aug 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • I dislike Brady the robot, and the Patriots in general, so I was pleased to see them get trounced by Detroit. Usually I cheer for whatever team is playing the Giants, unless they're from the AFC, or it matters for playoff standings.
    24 Aug 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Geno looks horrible that's for sure. But the Gmen aren't impressing me either..
    24 Aug 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Food for thought!!


    Bullion's bull run set to continue - analysts ....


    The recent increase in the price of gold, which has climbed by over 14% since dropping to almost $1,200 an ounce in June, has a strong basis and is set to continue, analysts believe.


    Some of the reasons for bullion's rise include heavy demand in Asia - and particularly India, where the insatiable appetite for gold is doing nothing to help the country's current account deficit - turmoil in emerging markets, high-priced U.S. equities and the under-performance of commodities in general.


    Another factor is a possible future constraint on supply as miners cut back on projects because gold has become more expensive to produce than it's worth.


    Gold futures are now +0.3% at $1,375.50


    24 Aug 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • What will happen if they stop producing "new gold"?
    25 Aug 2013, 03:33 AM Reply Like
  • It will become rare and PMs in general will soar making us metal hounds rich.... as in richonsilver :-)
    25 Aug 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • IT, Gold is over $1400 pre market on


    now it is showing up just $0.40 at


    so is gold going up??
    25 Aug 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    What does your brother think? You see my results doing short term trades....Why would anyone trust my opinion? lol
    25 Aug 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • lol, he probably would agree with you! Long term he thinks gold will go up up up, but who knows short term!
    25 Aug 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • @BSF


    If you've made a nice profit in gold, then sell. Greed is the 2nd leg of getting in trouble with a short term trade. If you can live with what you've got, and not feel sick if you miss out on another leg up, then that's your answer. For whatever that's worth.
    25 Aug 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • ....or, be really smart and change your mindset to long and get rich on silver (or gold)
    25 Aug 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Long term's not guaranteed. A current high win is.


    I've learned earlier on this blog, that if you're making a short term play, then stick with that. If you want to switch to long term, that takes careful analysis. Usually hard to do as part of a switch. So a word of warning (to myself) when that idea comes upon me...Instead, for me, better to sell out, then decide from scratch if it's a long term play I want.


    Personally, I may get in for a short term. But I don't have a win to bank yet. Maybe Dr. K's posted something on his blog?
    25 Aug 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • If you are a career short term player and just made a nice hit, no doubt the correct move is take the money and run. However, with that said, if you have thought about long term plays, have the time and a block of cash you can let sit, PMs are a great choice and can pay off big.


    Nothing in life and certainly not the market is certain but metals are making a comeback and while it may be slow, it is likely going to be a nice rise. We hit the bottom... its up from here. I have been saying it for several weeks. In a few years, 2013 will be looked back upon as the time PMs were a bargain and a lot of people will be mumbling "shoulda, coulda, woulda." :-)
    26 Aug 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CURLS


    People are catching you !!
    26 Aug 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Greece needs €10B in extra aid: Stournaras
    6:46 PM GREK


    "Greece may need a further €10B in extra support from its eurozone partners but would not expect any loan to come with conditions attached," Reuters says, citing comments made by Yannis Stournaras to Proto Thema.


    Stournaras, Greece's finance minister, is attempting to put a positive spin on the new aid which will help the country fill a 2014-2015 funding gap.


    It's not a bailout, but rather an "economic support package" and will come "without new terms," Stournaras says, adding that "other [austerity] measures or targets cannot be required."


    I thought they were in the clear and on their way to a recovery?


    Spin baby spin it!!
    25 Aug 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Europe has done a pretty good job band-aiding over the problems and kicking the can down the road. A recent article I read talks about the seriousness of the issues in France. Their top tax rate is now 75% and the wealthy aren't sticking around to see if it goes higher.


    Industrial output continues to fall and their PMI is one of the worst in Europe. Unemployment is over 11% and has risen for 26 straight months.


    Portugal is on the verge of needing another bailout and may very well resort to the Cyprus model of a bail-in, by the people.
    And if Portugal does that, France, Italy and Spain will be paying close attention.


    European markets seem to ignoring any problems for the time being and European ETF have actually outperformed the SPY the last 3 months. It seems it will be a long and winding road, but 2014 could see some fireworks over there.
    26 Aug 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TAMPAT


    They want us to think they are magicians instead of politicians. Gold has not risen because of any bounce as some have proclaimed.


    Europe has some nasty times ahead for them but of course we have Germany's election first!


    Blinders need to be removed from some. The sheeple will get slaughtered imo. It is just a matter of time !
    26 Aug 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, someone said, I think maybe it was Tom L, that stocks have been seeing a rise because of liquidity, not fundamentals. When the liquidity dries up, it will be - 'Houston, we have a problem here'.
    You can put lipstick on a pig, but its still a pig, and the markets have lipstick all over them.
    26 Aug 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Check out Tom's latest article. Makes plenty of sense and look at the comments as one of our regulars (FEAR) was making a ton of counter points.


    Worth reading all !!

    26 Aug 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • @Tampat:


    Stocks rising because of liquidity? Yes but they are also rising because of fundamentals. I mean...a lot of them have good fundamentals (and selling on the cheap). (SB) is one of them.




    3 Sep 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Krusty,


    Agree some stocks have good fundamentals. Thanks for mentioning SB, will check it out.
    4 Sep 2013, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @ROS


    The new guru of investing !! We bow down to you>>


    Money flowing back into precious metals
    1:13 PM GLD


    Gold ETFs saw inflows equivalent to 4.7 tons of the metal last Friday, according to Bloomberg - the highest recorded since last November.


    Also, notes Commerzbank, speculative investors increased their net long positions in gold by 28% to a 3-week high of 48.4K contracts in the week ended August 20. Net longs in sliver jumped 41% to 16.2K contracts.


    Rising geopolitical risk in North Africa and the Middle East may be boosting demand, but these sorts of boosts tend to be temporary in nature, says Barron's Teresa Rivas. Maybe of more interest are recent Fed minutes and speakers at Jackson Hole suggesting a September taper is not yet a done deal.


    Gold punched through 1,400 earlier in the session, but is now down a hair at $1,393. Silver's up 1.3% to $24.10.
    26 Aug 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • I dont worry too much about the PM's. They are tucked away safe and sound for a rainy day.


    I toyed with the idea of buying some (GPL) a couple weeks ago and then thought, nah, think I'll wait. Now its up 50% from early Aug.
    Oh well.


    Platinum (PPLT) has been doing even better, just broke over its 200 day MA.


    It funny how some think when stocks fall you should buy them when they are cheap, but when gold falls its dead, all done for.
    26 Aug 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » What a shock, now whispers are around the street that the USA is too weak to start tapering... DUH !!!
    26 Aug 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MOVING ON !!!

    26 Aug 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
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