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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 34......... 187 comments
    Aug 26, 2013 1:42 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.






    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (GLD) and (SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (187)
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  • Author’s reply » Things are starting to look dicey in Europe. Oil was also used at the highest level overseas in quite some time..


    26 Aug 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am also looking to collect on my Gold bet. A poster said gold would break 1k before it hit $1400. Gold was around $1200 at that point....


    Easiest bet I ever made !!


    So whomever that was I will gladly give you my PAYPAL info!!


    Just PM me >>>
    26 Aug 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Can this really have an impact on silvers production?
    26 Aug 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Agree with Dr. Ken, gold is going thru the roof. Missile strike on Syria as early as Thursday, "within days"



    If we do strike Syria, will Iran attack us? Israelis are getting their gas masks ready.


    It's getting really scary.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • I don't feel scared at all... Iran will up their bluster, maybe, but they know better than to poke the US hornet nest. The little dude in NK might rattle his sabre a little, too, just because it's a good opportunity.


    I just hope they keep it all long-distance, and/or from the air. The "impersonal" approach to conflict.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JBT


    Nah, those silver missiles will be flying very soon via our Navy. I am almost certain no troops will get involved. imo
    27 Aug 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    I know we changed the rules on having our dividends on the ex dividend date. So tomorrow (PSEC) goes ex. When is the first time i can actually invest that money?


    Tomorrows opening price, tomorrows closing price, or the next days opening price?


    27 Aug 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tomorrow's closing price. The money is deposited in your cash the morning of ex-div. It's usually done before open, so I guess if you got up early, saw the cash balance available, you could make a purchase @ opening price if you got the message out prior to market open.


    What happened to all trades being done prior to market close, unless mitigating circumstances? :)
    27 Aug 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » That was someone's else's opinion. I never stated that as a fact. I tried to make this user friendly for all and that includes using money on the ex dividend date. I did not suggest that but was fine with it.


    Personally i believe it is actually better to buy after the record date but what do i know. Just trying to clear up the rules that's all:)
    27 Aug 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Gotcha. Much like a brokerage account, I assume it's okay to place a trade once it shows there is money in the account.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • BSF and JB Tenn,


    I've been ghoulishly following the Arab Spring business for quite a while now. My mood a couple of years ago was optimistic that the region might actually change for the better. Then it turned bitter and cynical after Ghaddafi was killed and the western-friendly government put in place was shown to be impotent in the face of Jihaddi types taking over Libya. Now I am worried because here we go again.


    There are no good guys in Syria. There were at some point, but as usual, they've been rendered impotent or are fleeing the country. On one side we've got the usual murderous and insane dictator who's backed by Hezbollah and Iran. We have what originally was purported to be a democracy-wanting freedom-fighter bunch (like in Libya) who have now been pretty much replaced by Al Queda clones pouring in from Iraq and Yemen and Libya.


    Prez Obama backed himself into a corner last year with his red-line comment. I don't think he wants to do this as the war rhetoric started with France and the UK, but oh well!


    I do not think we should start bombing Syria. I do not see any good that could come from it. Scenarios:


    1. Assad is killed in an airstrike. Whoever replaces him continues to slaughter civilians.


    2. Assad's military is damaged to the point that he begins to lose the war. Al Nusra and company take over and slaughter civilians.


    3. An aspirin factory and some tents are destroyed to keep face. Assad's military stays intact. War continues. Civilians are slaughtered.


    Airstrikes aren't going to do us any good. Neither side should be allowed to win and take over. To accomplish that, it would require an occupation like we had after Iraq. I don't think that turned out so well.


    I hate to say it, but staying out of this mess might be the best solution, chemical weapons or not. If either side wins, it's going to spill over into Iraq and Lebanon (more so than it has) and I could see the whole situtation spinning out of control very quickly.
    27 Aug 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • User,


    I agree whole-heartedly. Get out of there and stay out of there. They really need to duke things out amongst themselves - it is NOT our concern. They all hate us anyways.


    That said, my comment prior was just my hopes that they keep it a ranged affair - drop the bombs, laser guide the missiles. Be merciless and quick about it, if indeed we are compelled to act. Take out the mosques (not on purpose, but if it happens, it happens), try not to kill too many civilians, but damnit, get in and get out.
    27 Aug 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • JB,


    I'm in agreement with you for the most part, but imo even airstrikes are too risky. Who do we bomb? There are no good guys. I am not prone to conspiracy theories, But:


    1. The gas attack occured one year to the day after Prez's "red line" statement.


    2. Assad was starting to win over the last few months. The nice folks from Hezbollah provided some fresh cannon fodder, I mean troops.


    3. After many months of delaying UN inspectors from entering the country, he gasses people a few days before they get there? Like shooting and using bombs and artillery wasn't working?


    4. I think we've all heard the WMD bit before regarding starting up something.


    5. I may be completely wrong to be suspicious regarding who gassed who regarding previous claims of WMD being used by various governments to justify wars. I'm just finding it odd that Assad is automatically assumed to be responsible for this even though he had no motivation to do this. The rebels/Jihaddists would if it would mean western air power on their side.


    6. Most plausible conspiracy theory I've read: Rogue commander autonimously decides to gas rebels. I could buy that. Kind of disturbing that the insane and murderous dictator could lose control of his wmd's, but I can buy it.


    We got terror attacks between Sunnis and Shia's increasing in Lebanon and Iraq. How many billions/lives did we spend to semi-stabilize Iraq? America's doing better, but we're not energy independent yet. (forgot to add that we've pissed off Russia pretty good over the last few years - a potential energy trading partner, but oh well!) And if there's a full blown religious war in the region, we're going to get involved heavily one way or another.


    Why the hell are we arming Jihadists directly or indirectly in Syria? Did we not learn the lesson from Afghanistan? Is this time really different?


    Thank you Hillary for your world tour in 2010 where we a few months later got to see all these uprisings start in pretty much every country you visited. And thank you, The Guardian, for cheerleading every rebellion along no matter who was rebelling (I read them because they have good international coverage - not for their editorials which are insinuated into every article).


    And we've reaped the benefits of the wonderful new democracies flowering across North Africa and the Middle East! A new dawn in relationships between the various cultures of mankind has emerged!


    Oh, wait. No it didn't. We've got Jihaddists and dictators vying for power and murdering folks. And after a winner is declared, will come for the rest of the world. The secular liberal intellectual mouthpieces have been routed (as usual). We're about to become embroiled in another war (and I really, really hope it's not a ground war) over energy. We will reap another generation of Jihaddis trying to kill all things percieved as western.


    JB, not ranting against you, just needed to vent. :)
    27 Aug 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • User,


    NP. I didn't take it that way. If we do have to bomb them, I guess it wouldn't really matter which side we struck (Assad/rebels). Both sides consider us the enemy, anyways.


    I wish we could be more hands-off like Russia and China. We get mired in this stuff while they just trade away, nary a concern for anyone other than themselves.
    27 Aug 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Many valid points User.


    Your points (and more) are why I have mentioned to invest in military/defense stocks. Not just the big guys like LMT, look for those making drones, helicopters and involved with homeland security issues.


    Remember the Stuxnet virus that allegedly did damage to Irans nuke facility. China has been alleged to have hacked into US govt sites and likely vice-versa. Cyber-security will be increasingly important also, both development of and protection against computer hacking and viruses.


    The middle east issues will not end for a long, long time and the US will stay very actively involved there and the rest of the world. I dont worry about any supposed cuts to defense spending. Even if the budget is reduced it will continue to pour $ billions into those areas mentioned above and if needed to cut will do so in other areas such as personnel and benefits.


    Unless a new political 3rd party arises in the US or a libertarian type gets elected president (and what are the chances of that happening), the war machine will roll on and on.
    27 Aug 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • @ tampat,


    See, this is part of the reason I ignore macro issues when it comes to investing! I get worked up about various issues and I know that I'm emotionally involved! A big no-no when it comes to investing. (hopefully this is more clearly thought out than the last time I interacted with you)


    I do not disagree with your premise that war will continue. I would like that it didn't, or better yet if there were clearly defined good and bad guys. But that won't happen. I will still get emotionally involved to some extent. I personally have no more interest than any other American of what happens in Syria. I met a Syrian fellow at the dog park who owned a dog that wanted to make love to one of my dogs a couple of years ago. That's as far as I know about Syria on a personal level.


    By discussing this with you, I know that I'm emotionally involved. Maybe it's because I'm trained not to like people suffering. Or whatever. But, can I evaluate if Raytheon is a buy now or later? The company will do fine. Are they overpriced? I don't know. And I wouldn't trust myself to evaluate them when I'm invested in following a story. Nor could I explain my exuberance following ME events as opposed to say, Ecuador and Columbia.


    Why do I get emotionally invested in this stuff? I work in mental health. I'm about as cynical about the human condition on an individual level as it comes. Perhaps I'm too optimistic about humanity in general? Perhaps I'm hoping that as a mass of humanity we're better? Now I'm thinking like Arthur C. Clark.


    Screw it, I'm going to take a nap and then cook some raviolli and sausage. Food is good. People are not.
    27 Aug 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • User,


    I think I understand what you mean in general.
    I think events, trends and macro issues will effect most any stock, ETF or investment other than maybe ravioli :)


    After identifying a trend or macro event then its just a matter of choosing the right investment to follow it.


    Its hard to not get emotionally involved in our investments, especially if they go down in value.


    Anyway, after seeing the comments on Syria it motivated my comment on military/defense type of investments. I wasn't trying to take anyone out of their comfort zone. I was just throwing it out there into cyberspace for it to float around with all the other infinite number of ideas already there and if someone came across it and was motivated to take it further thats up to them.


    The most important thing is peace of mind. If one can come close to achieving that then investments and personal or financial status really don't mean very much one way or the other. It has been shown time and again that money doesn't create happiness or peace of mind. Though it may help one to find it, it isn't a requirement.
    Some food is bad, some people aren't.
    27 Aug 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • tampat


    I wouldn't talk so fast about defense budget and industries; our Armed Forces have been overextended and as a result there are many problems with morale, suicides and sexual harrassment; all the war materiel used in Iraq and Afganistan must be replaced because it was not designed for the area but for the European flatlands (this is going to cost trillions of $); as for the defense industries, all this fancy but expensive high tech weapons are nothing but a waste of money because weapons are designed with a single point of failure and easy to defeat from a high tech adversary; don't underestimate the Chinese and Russians brainpower because the US suffers of brainpower an example look at the F-22 with problems...what about the F-35 with its cost overruns?
    Printing and printing will bankrupt not only the country but destroy our Armed Forces.
    7 Sep 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Rina,


    I dont disagree with your points. I am aware of the morale, harassment issue and that suicides are the number 1 cause of death of those in the military.
    You're right about all the war material needing replaced, much more business for the defense companies.
    I didnt say I was in favor of all this spending, I am against it and all the wars, and I think the US should get out and stop, but I think it will go on. Billions are being invested now on more high tech weaponry and cyber war/defense capabilities as well as more missiles, drones, etc.
    The defense industry has the most potent political lobby of all industries, they will get their money.
    I am not against investing in companies even though I may not like what they do or their product.
    8 Sep 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    So your bother being 20% right has worked?? Forget days it is within hours...


    The POTUS has his hand on the red button right now !
    27 Aug 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • I should have kept all my (NUGT)!! Youse guys were wrong telling me to sell lol. At least I kept some of it, hoping it goes back to $1000.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Why is gold always higher in the pre-market? It was $1420 now it's less. Crazy gold market!
    27 Aug 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • So should we wait until September to buy anything? August has been pretty bad but it could get worse in September.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • BSF,
    That is what I have been doing since June. The only purchases I made were (FCX)@27.61 and (MSFT)@31.03 when they got beaten down. I am currently sitting on 46% cash and have no plans on buying anything else, unless another opportunity like the 2 above presents itself between now and the end of Sept. after the FOMC meeting.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • I wish I had kept more of my cash Notrub because everything I bought since May/June is down, except for (KKD).


    My plan is to hold on to what cash I have until at least Sept/Oct. I'd rather buy when the market starts recovering than while it's falling.


    The only thing going up for me today is (NUGT) (LMT) and (NOC).
    27 Aug 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • I'll probably end up with more cash because out the 500 shares of (MSFT) I bought I have covered calls @ 33, 34 & 35. So if those 300 shares get exercised by 22SEP it will just be more cash I am sitting on. As I posted in an earlier chapter I park all my unused funds in (CLM) and collect the monthly dividends until I can find a good place to redeploy it long term.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gold and silver are a different animal and you need a strong stomach to trade it. However some here have been stacking for quite a few years so this is normal to us.


    Not a gold bug, but also not bullish on the markets either. Syria is just a smokescreen imo.


    Like i said i got out of this market a year ago, told anyone who was listening to back up the Brinks truck when silver was in the teens. Never suggested a price to buy gold as i had my % years ago.


    (NUGT) is too dangerous for me, i tried it and could not master it. However owning physical might be clumsy to some but not me !
    27 Aug 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • I dont think a time frame like Sept or Oct is relevant to when to buy, rather, events and price might be more relevant to watch.


    I think Bernanke will announce no tapering in Sept and this should support stocks unless QE has lost its mojo.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • IT you are going to laugh but I've been trying to sell all my (NUGT) for days. Kept putting the limit price too high. Then when I saw gold start to rise after Kerry's speech, I cancelled the trades. So I have some left, and will keep it as long as my nerves can take it.


    Probably better to own physical gold. I don't trust the paper gold stocks at all.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    You are preaching to the choir !! lol


    Now this is my opinion but i suspect in a few days when things calm down gold will also drop some as well. So consider that sale price again maybe?


    Long term i am in the camp of higher prices, hence the physical, but short term i proved to myself i would go broke trying to time the market.


    I am a nervous person naturally but when you own physical you do so as insurance. IMO silver is the better physical investment with a dash of gold of course.


    If you made a nice profit in real life on (NUGT) then you might be buying most of your physical with house money. Nothing wrong with that !


    Want something tangible for your son? Show him some silver and gold and i betcha he smiles. if you decide to go that route PM me as i have suggestions for you.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • IT can't figure out (NUGT). The price of gold is still higher than yesterday, at $1415 and now the price of (NUGT) is in free fall. I should have sold this am for $103. This up & down with no relation to what the price of gold is doing is weird!


    Agree with you, after the hysteria with Syria is over, gold might settle down. Of course, there is more high drama to come with the budget debacle in congress, and Sept. will be problematic after all it's a tradition.


    Actually I already own a lot of gold, in the form of jewelry mostly from India. We are looking to buy a business soon, so wish us luck with that! At this point, maybe people will be drinking more so a liquor store is a good idea? After today's market, I might need a drink myself ; )
    27 Aug 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • @ BSF,


    A liquor store is always a wise place to invest in. One of the few business types that did well in NO after Katrina.
    27 Aug 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Always remember those ETF'S do not have to correspond to the price of gold. Leveraged things do funny moves. I am in the camp of not bombing anyone.


    Just keep our noses out of what doesn't concern us. But our Govt. will never learn. Especially when the economy is faltering ! (NUGT) CAN be a roller coaster.


    Now talk on Wall Street of France might having to do haircuts as well? I was out most of the day so have to catch up as to what happened.


    But if you can book a profit , and a nice one I would. I just heard after hours trading is heavy on gold and oil. So you will get at least one more spike to think about what you want to do.


    Scary times are ahead for sure. I trust no one at this point!
    27 Aug 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » ok experts, including the DR. Please explain how (NUGT) and (DUST) moved opposite of gold?


    Nothing better then physical but obviously I just don't get it !
    27 Aug 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    DUST and NUGT are miners ETF's, not gold.
    Therefore they will follow the miners more directly that gold.
    Now, usually gold and miners go up and down together, but not always. Miners have been beaten down much more than the price of gold over the last couple of years.


    UGLD is the 3x bull ETF that will be for gold as NUGT is for the miners.


    DGLD is the 3x bear ETF for gold as DUST is for the miners.
    27 Aug 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TAMPAT


    Thanks for that info !!
    27 Aug 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Here comes LARRY SUMMERS !!


    Who wants whom? Yellen?
    27 Aug 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Have you seen something new regarding Summers as a choice?
    I'm not sure it matters a heckuva lot.
    I'll pick Ron Paul (no chance).
    27 Aug 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Probably propaganda but it was rumored on FBN, However they also said later that Yellin most likely is POTUS choice


    But he was putting his hat in the race !
    27 Aug 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Yellen


    Just get it over with Obama. Then Bernanke can go to England and get Knighted like Greenspan for being our hero and saving us all from financial Armageddon.
    28 Aug 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » WOW...Just got in and were comment less??


    No one has any thoughts on the markets?
    28 Aug 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Sure. The markets suck. There's a thought. ;)
    28 Aug 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Wrote an article a couple days ago. Sticking with my stronger dollarand weaker gold. They are both behaving accordingly since. But it is tthrough year end I think they will continue in that direction.
    29 Aug 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • IT, too busy watching the market & news....JTB is right, this market sucks! Syria is putting a damper on everything. Then we have the budget blow up coming, in Sept which is always a dicey month. Since the market is going nowhere, looks like everyone is just holding on (or shorting) until we get past the future road bumps.


    Even if the market does go up a little, it's all going to fall apart in Sept.


    The danger with gold (it's down today) is that if there is a missile strike on Syria, it will spike up. I was tempted to put my gains from (NUGT) into (DUST) but then realized that is too risky for me. I can see where the gamblers are in this gold trade game!


    That's my strategy, holding onto some cash in anticipation for lower lows ahead.
    29 Aug 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Maybe you can put your money where this banker did with the TARP funds!!

    29 Aug 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Is the POTUS wavering on the bombing?


    Now Russia also has warships in the water as well??


    This isn't a good sign imo..
    29 Aug 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Much a'do about nothing.
    29 Aug 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Hopefully (wavering).


    Maybe the letter he got from 116 congressmen telling him he needs to check with them first, and the British parliament telling Cameron no, is having an effect.


    Russin ships, I dont think is a big deal. The keep a small force of ships there just like we do anyway. New one coming in was to replace one scheduled to rotate out though it may stay for a while now, but thats just posturing I think.


    There isnt much that can be done, Syria just needs to work it out, they will eventually. I mean, fighting in the middle east been going on for 1000++ years, they should be able to resolve their differences by 2150-2200. Nah, just kidding. They wont resolve them that soon either.
    29 Aug 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Looks like it ain't happening HOWEVER the POTUS just snuck a couple of executive privileges in regarding gun control though!
    29 Aug 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I didnt see that, got any details or a link on that, would like to read more about it.
    29 Aug 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tampat,



    To sum up, can't import military surplus weapons, and can't register a gun under a corp. or trust to get around a failed background check.
    29 Aug 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, looks like nothing special.
    The more he does the more he boosts gun sales, good for those gun stocks.
    29 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Pretty much what is above..


    But I find it just a sneaky way of doing it !!
    29 Aug 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Indeed. Can future presidents nullify past presidents executive orders?
    29 Aug 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • JB,


    Yep. Obama revoked one of Bush's executive orders.


    Wonder how this will affect the Civilian Marksmenship Program? Guess I may have missed on ever getting a Garand.
    29 Aug 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • I imagine firearms already here would not be affected. You can still get one, it just may cost quite a bit more than it did.
    29 Aug 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • You know, this type of legislation/order always seems to pop up whenever I'm musing about buying a particular type of firearm. Guess lever-action rifles will be the next thing to be considered assault weapons? Just semi-joking as according to my quick read of the above XO my 90 year old Swiss rifle would now be considered military surplus.
    29 Aug 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Isn't it time for N. Korea's leader to cry for attention? "Hey...over here...we have nukes we are going to use!"


    29 Aug 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • This is ridiculous, the notion that if the US doesn't bomb Syria, we will look foolish. Britain has already voted not to bomb Syria. Is anyone laughing at them? The problem is, no one can say who exactly set off the bombs with the gas in Syria. And who would we bomb exactly? More innocent people will die. They've already suffered so much. How about sending aid, evacuating families (especially children!) and showing some mercy. These people need food, medicine & shelter, not bombs.


    I'm praying that the fools in Congress (all of them!) will let their better nature guide them for once. Let's help save people for a change. Give peace a chance.
    29 Aug 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • @BSF


    We'd look foolish to the Middle East. War doesn't work the same way there as here. Backing down, is a huge invite to attack. Just one example (and there are so very many). When Israel pulled out of Gaza, Hamas announced "Israel is weak, we've beaten them, it's time to start up the war to destroy them." It's not just Hamas. It's well known ME dynamics.


    I'm not saying we should bomb, but if we don't, we lose credibility with many potential ally individuals throughout the region. We completely lose the game of chicken we're playing with Iran and it's nuclear program. Iran lost a lot of regional support when it supported Assad against the rebels. If US doesn't stand up to Assad and Iran, we'd lose too.


    Again, not saying any of this is logical.


    Aid isn't what's needed. They aren't dying from starvation. They're dying from direct hits. You can't evacuate an entire country. And where would you send them? Turkey doesn't want them. Jordan is overrun with them. Israel is taking wounded but can't take them all in. (Though, aid would win US support...)


    There isn't a peace to give a chance to. You have to either pick a side, and get rid of the other. Or watch and let them run it out. Best we could do, is take over some land, and set up camps for refugees on them. But then we'd be -in- the war too.


    US is accused of supporting only dictators there and whatever is in our best interests (easily to ally and control), and interfering with ME efforts to overthrow their dictators and get better futures. It's a fair accusation. Not every time nor in the degree vented, but it's fair. So with all the Arab springs it's our chance to bring our freedom values and support those, instead of dictators, etc..


    Question is what to do in this case. Assad is horrible and always has been. Problem is, not that the rebels are jihadists, but that they too have been grotesquely violent. There are horror stories coming out where they've taken civilians supposedly rescued and...well, horrible. They aren't an organized singular bunch, and we'll just wind up with weapons in the hands of rotten groups.


    I haven't heard a good solution yet. Doesn't seem to be one.


    I'd hesitantly support some underhanded efforts to support rebels, oust Assad already, and meanwhile coordinate some political movement to democracy. It's not Egypt. Syria is different, more with education & money. If they turn democracy or anything like it -- it will take down the rest of the Middle East and every awful ruler there.


    Then again... it could just make a new mess.... So many fractions, again.


    Once a year ago Obama set the line at chemical weapons. If we do nothing, it speaks volumes about American weakness. Even if that doesn't mean sense to an American. In the ME backing down, is a signal that you are ready to be attacked & defeated.
    29 Aug 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • curls,


    Killing more people won't solve anything. Why do you think the US is so disliked in the middle east?


    Imagine a country more powerful than the US that keeps their warships off our coasts, their troops in our country, occasionally bombs our cities to keep us in line, installs our leaders and forces us to use their currency for world trade.


    Imagine your neighborhood is bombed, friends and relatives are killed, now you want some revenge, you become a terrorists to fight them. Americans would fight, terrorist style, if the same things were happening here. Every time American bombs kill people in other countries then more terrorists are created.
    30 Aug 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat


    I'm not suggesting killing more people. Nor is the plan to bomb people, and neighborhoods. It's surgical strikes.


    And while some will be for Assad and unhappy if the US strikes, others will be relieved and glad that the US finally stepped up to supporting the people, instead of the dictator.


    It's not accurate to say this is flatly about the US bombing things. There's been as much anger about what the US hasn't stepped in to help with.


    And terrorism has nothing to do with the politics. The politics are used as a cover by the terrorist organizations to get general population to be mildly comfortable with them. But it's not the core messages of their organizations, and not the motivation for the member's actions. For terrorist organizations themselves, it truly is a "east" vs. "west" sense of culture changes in the world that they're trying to stop. At this point, in most ME countries, terrorism has gone from largely acceptable to largely unacceptable (Pew polling 2011).


    When US fought the dictator in Libya, support for the US was formed big time. Again, Iran was mostly supported in Syria, until Iran supported Assad, when they lost almost all support across the Middle East (it was a big deal shift.)


    I'm completely for peace, less action whenever possible, and leaving other countries be. But doing nothing isn't always the best way to save horrors. (Nor best for the US reputation, but that's not what's important - helping Syrians is.)


    From the news coverage - why do you think this is about the US killing people and bombing neighborhoods?
    30 Aug 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • BTW, I wasn't saying I'm for the bombing over chemical weapons.


    I was just clarifying why pundits are saying if we don't we look weak. Bluesky said "to whom?" and my reply is "within ME rules we'd look weak."


    On bombing over chemicals, I can't believe Obama set that as a red line. It was a dumb move, because now he's backed into a corner. I think all these posturing reasons to get into things, are dumb and counterproductive to everyone. What I'd like is underhand (underground) support for those rebel groups that can be identified as for democracy and won't be fractionally violent if they win. Beyond that -- if we go overt with more than hitting chemical supplies, we need a plan, and I don't see any presented yet (as in -- what's the goal, how will it be done, and what's the cleanup actions.)


    It has regional implications if Obama ignores what he's said a year ago. Implications that could result in much bigger war. So this isn't simple.


    Now that Obama set the red line -- and for the sake of Syrians -- IF and only IF it can be done to take out the chemical weapons stores OR deter use of them, should it be done.


    If we want to oust Assad, that plan has to be announced and figured out. It's officially stated that that is -not- the current goal.


    At 12:30 we'll see what Kerry announces...
    30 Aug 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • curls,


    If the US uses missiles or bombs, no matter the target, people will be killed. Surgical strikes means people will require surgery after the strike.


    Why strike now? Because of the chemical weapons use that no one knows who really used them on whom? So, its ok to kill and maim using guns and bombs, but using anything else means we have to lob a few missles to 'send a message'. Its idiotic. And Obama should not have made a 'red line' in the first place as that forces a response.
    There is no good alternative to Assad so removing him may create even bigger problems, (see also, Egypt).


    You say Terrorism has nothing to do with politics? I believe thats totally wrong, they are quite connected.


    For the US, this is all about oil and the petro-dollar. If a new energy source was discovered and the dollar was removed as the worlds reserve currency there would be no interest in whats going on in the middle east. Syria is no threat to the US.


    Hows about take all that money used for the US war machine and use it in the US. The trillions used in Iraq and Afghan etc, etc would pay for free health care for everyone.
    Or pick your use for that money, improve infrastructure, lower taxes, improve the educational system, or just pay down debt.
    30 Aug 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • @ Curls and Tampat,


    Both of you make points that I agree and disagree with.


    I would bring up these things to consider for casual readers of this thread:


    After a hundred thousand have died in a conflict less than three years old, why is the west getting their panties bunched up over three hundred plus who died last week by chemicals? Is that anymore horrible than bombs, bullets, or burning?


    Obama seemed initially tepid last week. Britain and France were hawkish from the get-go. The French are still rah-rah but seriously depleted their military supplies in first Libya and then Mali. Now Britain has backed down and Obama is left holding the bag? I would argue that he appears weak to everyone on the international stage, not just Mid-East countries. I would argue that bombing or choosing not to bomb will not improve his image.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • If Obama had a nation, it would look like Syria.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • I agree User, bombing or not will not improve his image one iota. Those who like him still will, and those who dont, still wont. Agree with the other stuff too.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • JB,


    One of my friends who is actually involved in making rules of engagement described this administration as "amateur hour" about a year after Obama was elected. I did not understand what he meant at the time.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • @User7


    Yep, the red line over chemical weapons makes very little sense. Why not care all along? The argument is that CWs kill so many so fast. So I suppose that's a factor to consider, but it's not where I'd have drawn the line.


    Amateur hour, lol. My observation, that's been the key problem all along. Obama backed himself into a corner. I agree he looks weak, in the west and the east. But I'll still hold that there's a ME dynamic that bombing will make him look strong. Doesn't mean it's the right thing to do, but it's part of the amateur hour of this administration, that from day one, he didn't understand this very standard ME dynamic. When you back down, it's weak, not peace-seeking, nor compromising. Weird but true.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Curls,


    I cannot argue that backing down over there is percieved as weak. I am arguing that it's too late - he will be percieved as weak whether action is taken or not, by a variety of powers that does not include just the ME, which I think we're in agreement on. So why take action if:


    1. It will be an ineffectual token gesture at best.


    2. It will allow Jihaddis to take over Syria (I know the argument that they are numerically a small part of the rebels. I was going to write down some of the things Al-Nusra types have been doing on videos I've watched, but remembered that not everyone on this site is as soul-charred as I, and would just point out that I have serious doubts of a hundred thousand or so "good guys" can handle a few tens of thousands that are willing to do such acts of brutality whilst being filmed if Assad is overthrown.


    3. If the argument is made that Iran's influence is worse than Saudi/Quatar influence in the region, Iran is stretched pretty thin while supporting Assad - supporting it's military/nuke efforts - feeding it's populace while under sanctions. One of these three things will have to go, or a more successful revolt may happen soon.


    I was going to write a good bit more, but I'm trying to stay somewhat happy for the coming work week. I would like to think that the war is the most ingenious Machivellian plan of getting large groups of evil people in the world together to kill each other off, but I cannot buy it. And I can only conclude that an intervention by the previously mentioned amateur administration will make things worse.


    Steak/mac&cheese/v... stir-fry tonight!


    30 Aug 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • @ User7


    We seems to agree on a lot. There's something that puzzled me in your comments:


    For #1, I haven't seen evidence that the rebels in Syria are largely not terrorist groups. To the contrary, it appears that they are a large enough %, that it's THE prime reason various g'vts have avoided stepping in to end Assad.


    On looking weak, agreed at this point PONTUS looks weaker than if other countries had supported him. In the ME game, if he doesn't hit, it looks wildly weaker, than if he does. It's that large a part of the ME thinking! I'm only adding that as a game board piece. It doesn't change all the game board pieces on why not to bomb.
    1 Sep 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Curls,


    I'm posting from work for the first time ever in retaliation for my boss not letting me go home at 3pm as insinuated much earlier in the day.


    I did read a report last week that the rebels broke down into about 10-30,000 jihaddi types and approx 200 thousand of the rest. I don't think I could source it as I forget which website I read it on. I still took it with a bottle of salt.


    I wonder if at this point Obama and Co. are trying to confuse Assad to death?
    1 Sep 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • @ User7


    Confuse to death, lol.


    Israel's been sitting on the fence and not pushing for taking out Assad. That (and info I've seen connected with that) tells me they're fearful that a rebel takeover would go jihaddist. So I don't the numbers, but I'll accept that assessment. They have a lot at stake at being accurate on this, is my thinking.
    1 Sep 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat


    I answered to must of your points already in my previous postings. So please check them out.


    Terrorism doesn't have to do with politics. That's what Muslim organizations against terrorism say. What experts on the region say. That's what people like Ahmendinajad say when they give speeches, and the core of the issue is looked for. Politics isn't in the core literature from Al-Quaeda and Muslim Brotherhood.


    Sure, politics gets mixed in (in some instances more than others). But fix the politics and you fix the non-terrorist civilian "comfort" with the terrorist organizations, but you don't fix the organizations themselves. That political goal thing, is a smoke screen used to create room for themselves -- and it's works -- you're using it.


    The US goal isn't oil. It's much more complicated than that. It also includes the Church vs. Islam deep past. It also includes wanting to bring democracy (for some people that's the goal.) Syria isn't a threat to the U.S., but Iran may be. Or more accurately if Iran goes nuclear and Hizbollah gets a hold of it, or some rogue group does, it's a problem. Or it encourages N. Korea, which threatens out ally Japan. What's done in Syria has immediate impact on stability of the whole region (i.e. involves Iran), plus Lebanon and Jordan. Plus Egypt is watching closely. It's not simple. It's not remotely simple. Oil is a motivator, but it's not the whole picture at all.


    For the rest, you've not incorporated what I wrote. Please check out what I wrote, then comment.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • curls, you can't install democracy in a Muslim nation. Who gives us the right to do so? We don't even have a democracy here, so it's a sham to begin with, just like the global war on terror against a thought. Deception all the way.


    Democracy, I'm sure you have heard, is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to eat for dinner. The "rule of law" is what all nations could and possibly should agree upon, which gets into the differences of religion you speak of. The U.S. cannot and should not dictate laws of Muslim countries. They have other means via the Constitution to get rid of dictators who cross the line. We just don't consult the Constitution any longer. We have not won a war that wasn't declared.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • @ Doug


    Please read what I wrote again. You're counter comment, doesn't incorporate key pieces.


    Dictator countries don't have constitutions and can't get rid of them via peaceful means. Those citizens who want constitutions and people-driven countries, do not have anything like that option when it's a dictatorship.


    Did I support the "war on terror"? Why argue it with me, when it's not got anything to do with what I've said.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Curls,


    We must have been writing at the same time as I didnt see you 2nd post until after I posted mine.
    Iran is no threat to the US. No country is a threat to the US from a military standpoint. Perhaps do some research on just how powerful the US military is. I invest in military/defense companies and have done quite a bit of research on this.


    We are light years ahead of the rest of the world and that includes Russia and China. Did you know the US has more aircraft carriers than all the countries in the world combined.
    Sure, they could use nukes, but thats an end of the world as we know it situation. No one can threaten the US militarily.


    They know it, so the next issue to be dealt with will be cyber attacks/cyber terrorism and financial attacks by upsetting the USD as the reserve currency.


    It appears we are so far apart on this we will just have to disagree as I don't agree with so many of your points.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • I agree Doug.
    There is so much misinformation spread by the MSM that too many people in the US are just not aware of.


    As John Mayer says:


    'And when you trust your television
    What you get is what you got
    Cause when they own the information
    They can bend it all they want'


    (John Mayer - Waiting On The World To Change)
    30 Aug 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • My internet is finally back. Wasn't ignoring everyone!




    Well the cross-posting explains a lot.


    I'm disappointed that we are so wide on this, since we tend to agree on so much in general. Agree to disagree sounds good...


    Has anyone claimed Iran is a military threat to the US?


    The complaint is a nuclear Iran is a world threat, for many reasons.


    This is the same g'vt that gave children "keys to heaven" so they could "get in" when they cleared mine fields for the gov't.


    This gov't also brought in Hezbollah militants to beat up protestors during the voting riots because Iranian guards couldn't bring themselves to beat up fellow Iranians hard enough.


    Concerns include that with current Iranian missile technology, they can send nukes (when they have them) to some capitals in Europe, and soon to the US eastern seaboard. More important is leakage from this g'vt to unstable groups like Hezbollah, could put nukes into rogue-groups' access, that aren't accountable on the world stage. Then there's the political dynamics. Iran, Turkey and Arabs all have been vying for Middle East for centuries. So if Iran has nukes, it shifts the regional dynamics, all without firing a nuke. Then all the Arab countries feel they need to have them. Israel's at risk. With a govt that's held annual "the world without zionism (and this is obtainable)" conferences, Israel's taking it seriously. Plus it influences N. Korea, and S. America.


    So as far as I've seen, the concerns haven't been Iran's military vs. the US, but specifically concerns which Iran with nukes presents.


    For me, if this go'vt doesn't worry about the welfare of it's own people, I don't trust them with nukes.


    Definitely the cyber issues are a big deal that's not yet getting the public and political attention that it needs to. Hadn't thought about it in terms of currency, but that sounds spot on.
    1 Sep 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat, Doug


    True, the media by itself creates a lot of false "impressions" and even straight up false data at times.


    @ Tampat
    On what I'd posted before, I'm happy to drop it, but wanted to include this link, in case you're interested the link. It's a small organization, so not definitive, but I've gotten this view from many sources.


    (To be sure though, I respect your views and that you came by them thoughtfully and carefully, and I'm not trying to start up a debate. I'm sure we're both in agreement that the less war the better...!!)
    1 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • "The complaint is a nuclear Iran is a world threat, for many reasons."




    Ok, so we are done with Syria and moving on to Iran. :)
    How many times has Iran attacked another country? When was the last time they did?
    Of course Iran wants nukes. They saw how easily the US destroyed Iraq. They know having nukes is the only way to keep the US at bay.
    If you want the US to leave you alone, you really need to have some nukes.


    Look at N Korea. The people are are woefully mistreated and starving and they make regular threats about attacking S Korea and the US and Japan.
    Why does the US leave them alone? They have nukes and no oil, so as long as they don't cross the line they will be ignored.
    There are a lot of countries that abuse their population, look throughout Africa.


    The thing about having nukes though, any country knows if they used them they would be destroyed, it would be a suicide option. I think other countries want them to have a defensive shield, not to use offensively.


    You do have a point about nuke technology getting into the hands of terrorists, but it isn't the technology, or the how to, that is the problem, its getting the materials to do it. If a nuke ever goes off in the US at the hands of terrorists, I would guess various cities in middle east might become a radioactive wasteland, oil or no oil. And I think the US has made that clear to all the govts whether or not they are friendly to the US, so its in those govts best interests to not allow that to happen regardless of how much they dislike the US, but thats just a guess. I wonder why it hasn't happened yet.


    Incidentally, most people in foreign countries, including the middle east, don't hate Americans, they hate the policies/interference of the US govt. But I agree there is always the possibility of a terrorist type getting their hands on enough nuke material to do some damage. Russia has had nuke materials disappear, not a fun thing to think about.


    As for chemical weapons use, Saddam used chem weapons against Irans military and their people as well as on the Iraqi Kurds during its war with Iran in the 1980's, a war Iraq started. The US backed Iraq and Saddam and even provided him with satellite images of Iranian troops so they would know where to direct their efforts and was well aware chemical weapons were being used. The hysteria about their use in Syria is overblown I think and really, a few missiles being fired is more likely just a waste of missiles. And now we are going to have to listen to this chem weapons use and Syria 24/7 for the next week or two, ugh.


    Of course Syria is a problem, the whole middle east is a power keg. They are just going to have to fight it out until one side is dominant enough to take power and then be dealt with after that.


    Anyway, I dont think the nuke issue is the big one to worry about, though it certainly is concerning.
    The cyber attack threat is real. They can be difficult to trace back and super hackers can do it from anywhere. Taking out the electric grid would be a disaster in the US and send us back into the 1800's without firing a shot, at least for some period of time. Imagine the disruption. Imagine the panic and riots as the US goes into lockdown, probably martial law. Better own a gun or two.
    No more computers, no more posting on SA!!!


    I think cyber warfare may be the 21st century nightmare. However, the govt and the military is on top of it and is pouring billions into R&D in this area, as well as Star Trek type laser technology, largely immune to defense budget cuts. From an investment standpoint, its something to think about.
    This is quite a cheerfull topic huh.
    1 Sep 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • "For me, if this go'vt doesn't worry about the welfare of it's own people, I don't trust them with nukes."




    The cynic in me says govts worry more about staying in power than the welfare of its people. They make too many decisions that dont improve peoples lives to think otherwise. Of course, they may try to give the impression they care about their welfare.
    1 Sep 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TAMPAT


    Ever read 2 SECONDS AFTER??


    Great book..
    1 Sep 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    No haven't read.


    I just Googled it and cannot find a book by that name, is it the sequel to One Second After????


    Anyway yeah, suppose things be like in that TV show thats been running, Revolution, where all the power is gone.
    Fun show ;)
    1 Sep 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • @Tampat


    Yes all g'vts worry about staying in power, over people's welfare. In theory democracies (people-driven g'v't for Doug) supposedly stay in power by catering to the people's welfare. But that's theory.


    Iran's sending children to clear out minefields with keys to heaven (and blankets to wrap their bits in so they're hold soul would get to heaven) wasn't about protecting the votes for their g'vt. It's a style of thinking that I don't want deciding if it's a good time to nuke someone.
    1 Sep 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • @Tampat


    You moved on to Iran, and I was politely following you along :).


    Has Iran attacked anyone? Iran has attacked Israel a number of times via proxy, Hezbollah, Hamas, and is allied with Syria that's attacked. Nasrallah from Hezbollah has said he's taken his permission and directive from Iran (also Syria for some stuff). Iran's been doing border skirmishes at Saudi Arabia. They were also funding in the civil war in Yemen, on the jihadist-types' side.


    Yes, oil changes what the US gets involved it, and not rightfully so. Otherwise there's a ton of countries that need more attention, like Darfur in Sudan and the raping in Congo...and the list goes on.


    The nuke one worries me. It's not a side line. It changes everything in the world. And regionally. After reading a few of the conferences on "the world without zionism" and listening to Ahmandinajed in interviews on US news channels...I'd take Iran very seriously as a concern. The rulership isn't working with a full deck. (Did you see the news articles where they caught 14 zionist spies that they were going to try? It was 14 squirrels. For real.)


    Yep, the cyber stuff will be the next big front. Hum, hadn't thought in investment terms. I think that's a weakness of mine as an investor - I don't think of these things!


    And all so cheerful... I'm going to go outside. While there still is one...
    1 Sep 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TP


    1 Sep 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • curls,


    Yeah, Iran does have its issues.


    Its just the hypocrisy of the whole thing.
    We support Saddam using chemical weapons, until we don't.


    If China or Russia or N Korea used them against their own people we would certainly speak out against it, but do you think the US would lob some missiles into any of those countries as punishment.


    Its past time that the other countries in the middle east step up to resolve their issues, like the Arab League for instance. They are all a woeful bunch. They are the problem and they are the solution.
    There are 20+ countries in the Arab League yet they want the UN to resolve this, or the US with UN backing. They need to fix there own problems.


    Why dont they all get together and send a few missiles into Syria as punishment. That would send a far stronger message than anything the US does.


    Or let Israel deal with them.
    1 Sep 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat


    You want to talk about hypocrisy in US foreign policy? It's all over the place!


    " Arab League yet they want the UN to resolve this, or the US with UN backing. "
    Yes behind the scenes, it's working that way. Not sure what helps.


    Obama is almost never very certain or clear about anything. So I've wondered what's motivating him here. He's not saying what it's really about. And if it's just about CWs, than this is very odd. Ranting about 1400 killed, when hundreds of thousands have been. Is it pre-election bravado? Or has Iran done something, that seems to need a message sent? I'd believe the election angle.


    Israel can't get involved, unless they want a full war with everyone. They're worry is keeping all the borders quiet. So many are ready to heat up. If they helped the rebels, that's gain support for Assad...!
    1 Sep 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » But the POTUS did not miss his golf game yesterday ! What a leader we have.. Amazing , just amazing.


    He is the leader of the free world? He is a joke ...
    1 Sep 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • curls,


    Maybe Obama is just trying to back up his 'red line' comments from before.
    But I think maybe you have a valid point that there is more to this than the CW's being used. We may be in need of a military crisis to slow down a financial crisis.


    See also:


    "As The Bernanke Era Comes To An End A New Global Paradigm Is Almost Certain But Few See It Coming"

    1 Sep 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    What 'free world' are you referring to?
    1 Sep 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Good song tampat!


    So is the Who's "We Won't Get Fooled Again"


    Meet the new boss...
    Same as the old boss...
    4 Sep 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » My guess??


    I just walked in and if ANY bombing starts it will be when the markets are closed. I am expecting something after 4pm today or over the weekend.


    Justified or not imo it is gonna happen!
    30 Aug 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Monday or Tuesday. I believe Obama has an appointment with the G20 to keep.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT & User7


    Now this is where the blog is helpful with investing. I didn't think about timing at all. But you've both spot on. It'll be not during market hours... and looks like with the Congress vote, he's effectively delaying till after G20.
    1 Sep 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Folks, I'm sorry. I've just watched Kerry.



    Every other sentence: "We know!"


    This is a college level "debate 101" speech. "Some things we know, we can't talk about publicly" Really?


    I'm going to shut up for a week or so.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • I went to the store to do some grocery shopping so I wouldn't be tempted to turn on the TV to hear him say... nothing. :)
    30 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Actually, you are giving the average American too much credit expecting them to understand college level debate 101. The average American is a moron with a 6th grade reading & comprehension level who listens to cRAP music .... why do you think Obama has been elected twice?
    2 Sep 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Reman noodles??
    30 Aug 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Not this weekend, no. Us and the neighbors two doors down are pit-cooking a whole pig tomorrow. I got stuff to go along with it, since he bought the pig.


    Mmm.... And lots of beer. ;)
    30 Aug 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Enjoy !!..


    Pit cooking the POTUS tomorrow?...
    30 Aug 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • No, I think they only do long-pig in the east TN hills. I'm in the more civilized western part of the state. ;)


    I actually misspoke, anyways - it's a hog, not a pig. And no, we're not cooking Christie, either.
    30 Aug 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • @ JohnBin


    I got invited once to a pig roasting. From someone who wasn't from the deep south. A new experience for me....
    1 Sep 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Now John you know the best pig roasts are in Iowa! Best one I remember the pig was in the ground, roasting for - could this be true - a couple of days? It was the best roast I've ever had.


    Living on the east coast now in NJ, I haven't ever had a steak, or any meat that even comes close to what we had back in Iowa.


    Maybe memories make the meat taste better than it was.....but great memories none the less. Beer & brats, pig roasts, fresh corn, and beef that you never ever get out here. My mom still gets part of a steer from people she knows, she can't use the whole cow but they make sure she gets what she needs. You can't buy the best meat in the regular grocery store.


    The ice cream is better too. There's a little place just half a block from my mom's house that has the best home made ice cream. They make malts, which if you've never had one, it's a milk shake with malt added. So good! Also they make the best tenderloins. A tenderloin is pork, then breaded & fried. I've never seen them in NJ. No malts either. Yes I do dream of retiring there. A lot lower cost of living & the food is great. But the winters.....very cold.


    IT my brother says "the colder the winter, the nicer the people."
    2 Sep 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • BSF,


    It was okay - I'd rather just have a rack of ribs, though, to tell the truth. Was nice to experience, though. Ground pits are usually over-nighters - never heard/read about one that cooked for days. Never know, though. :)


    Fresh beef is always the way to go - we have a "real" butcher shop near us that cuts your beef right off the sides. I grill or smoke food at least once or twice a week, and I'm no stranger to good sweet corn. Same for beer, brats, and ice cream (originally from WI). Can't get cheese curds in TN. :(


    If you ever get up to WI, try Culver's for a really good malt. And hit Cousin's Subs for the best cheese steak sub on the planet. If feeling brave and in Milwaukee, Hup's pizza for the best pizza anywhere, too. :)
    2 Sep 2013, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • I like Wisconsin & even Minnesota. My home town is in northeastern Iowa. Great people out there, salt of the earth. And honest....which is why I find living in NJ so dam* hard.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Amateur hour has gone on for a very long time, sadly. It isn't just confined to the Oval office, despite the Bush & Obama administrations. Congress members don't have much to show for their service either.


    These Middle East problems go back so many centuries, that one thing we can all agree on is that "solving" them won't occur for many decades to come. Perhaps even centuries.


    Saddam Hussein was a monster, but by "liberating" Iraq, what exactly was accomplished? We don't know the full fall out from that yet. One outcome was that Iran's nemesis ceased to exist. Remember when Iraq & Iran fought a 20 year war? That at least kept these 2 tyrannical countries busy killing each other.


    Would the "Arab Spring" have occurred without the "liberation" of Iraq? Have the countries that overthrew their leaders in the Arab Spring become democratic? Or are the Muslim fundamentalist wackos (Al Queda, Taliban, etc.) destined to come to power....we are watching it being carried out every day. Let us not forget that the US evolved from a revolution, to a Civil War, to whatever you now call it going on in our nation's capital. Impasse? Do nothing idiots that cannot decide on a budget let alone pass constructive tax legislation or make it easier for our corporations to bring back their $ & start manufacturing here? And again, I feel bad even complaining when most Americans live in absolute luxury compared to 75% (or more) of the world's population.


    At one time, I believed that countries deserved their leaders, whether dictators or democratically elected. Because the people living in those places tolerated what their leaders did to them.


    My apologies, but it gets harder & harder for me to care why or how these people are butchering each other. Is it our problem to fix theirs? I don't know anymore. However when I see children dying, it does make me very sad. May God forgive them & us, guide us to do the right thing and someday let peace take hold in all these places in the world so mired in deadly violence.
    30 Aug 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • My internet is finally back. Wasn't ignoring everyone!


    @ BlueSky


    Gotta agree with most of your comments. Iraq was the counter balance for Iran. You have to play with the game board pieces, very carefully.


    I am always reminded of a description I read in a history book of Europe. That it took about 50 years from the start of revolutions until most of Western Europe was transformed into people-driven governments, and then it was still shaky. So I've expected the Arab Springs to take a long time. It's hard to sit by and watch it so slowly happen.


    IMH, on dictatorships, people don't choose them, or tolerate them. It's hard stuff to overturn. Just watching the beatings of Iranians for wanting a vote showed that. In Syria, people's houses have been bugged by the government for decades.
    1 Sep 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Saddam Hussein, Muammar al-Gaddafi, Bashar al-Assad.


    The number of people these dictators have killed is minor compared to the Kissinger/Bush killing machine.


    Iraqi dead since we "saved" them from Saddam Hussein is anywhere from 150,000 (low est) to about 1,000,000. How many do you think would have died if we had never invaded?


    Remember that Reagan/ VP-Bush (Bush was really president during Regan's 2nd term) provided the weapons of mass destruction (chemical and biological) to Hussein to use against Iran. It is total hypocrisy for our gov't to claim a moral high ground that they must intervene as they did in Iraq because of the use chemical weapons. The same hypocrisy is being repeated. How dumb do they think the US citizen is?


    The evidence of the CW in Syria was probably staged and the CW attacks were probably carried out by foreign instigators. It is staged to back Obama into a corner so he doesn't have a choice. I didn't realize as User pointed out, that the CW incident occurred a year to the day of Obama's red line statement.


    Solution to Syria: evacuate all civilians, innocents, and non-combatant people. Open the Iraqi border to Syrians. Give aid to the Syrian refugees, not the combatants. Then let the two or three factions have it out - don't give them aid, and whoever wins will win nothing but rubble. Oh - Iraq is a sovereign nation? How can they be expected to do this? Since when did the US have a concern about sovereignty? We have no problem invading and bombing when we have created a convenient excuse.


    How about an excuse to perform humanitarian aid rather than arming rebels?


    Further thoughts: Obama = George Bush III


    Obama and the Intelligence/Surveillance cabal being mad at Russia for giving asylum to Edward Snowden may be getting even with Russia by helping anti-Assad's groups. He/they are that petty and vindictive. "How dare they "dis" us that way!"


    Happy Labor day: machines are replacing humans. Machines don't pay taxes or Social Security & Medicare taxes. Not a promising trend.
    31 Aug 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Machines can print checks - the government seems to love sending those out.
    31 Aug 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well the POTUS just punted !!


    Now needs someone to back his decision? Just stay out, let them fight for their caves.


    I don't like seeing innocent people killed but we really have no proof who actually did it.


    IMHO offer medical and food aid to those who leave the area. Let those two sides battle it out without our help. I bet that won't make the rebels ( whomever those are ) happy ..
    31 Aug 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Good point about knowing who did it. Why would Assad risk the blowback and do it? It seems the rebels have a better motivation for doing it so it gets blamed on Assad.


    Now Obama has 2 weeks to get the media to convince the people Syria must be attacked in some way shape or form.
    1 Sep 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • @IT


    They have recordings in the weeks before of who's giving the orders for gas masks, and so on. So that's not where I'd put doubt, myself. Assad's been known to be pretty poor in his decision making at times...
    1 Sep 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @curls


    Sorry, I don't buy any recordings at this point. I don't trust anyone after Bush's WMD storytelling !!


    Actually I am still trying to figure out who killed Kennedy... But that's just me !
    1 Sep 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well here is an interesting article from Eric that I believe we all should read. Interpret it at your own risk!



    I stated before Summers will be next !
    1 Sep 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • guy's opinion needed... (or gal's):


    So hypothetically... I meet someone during the week who's interesting. Agree to get together at 4pm on Sat for coffee at a casual restaurant. On Sat, he calls saying friend is in hospital so can we move it to 8-9pm that night, or to the next day? After agreeing to (possibly if I have time) next day, he says he'll call after church. Never calls. What's the chances the hospital story was to try to move the time to late on Sat? Vs. that he's a little shy about it and put off calling? There's nothing important about this get together, but curious what it sounds like to others...
    1 Sep 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • curls


    It is healthy to be suspicious. I sense some possible dis-information and misdirection going on with this person. You should be concerned with him trying to move the coffee date to a later time in the evening. I wouldn't believe at face value what he says about going to church. The "church" line sounds like it is intended to make him sound wholesome, when you actually have no clue. People who use the appearance of being religious may be the ones to worry about.


    Sounds like a flakey person first impression, right off.


    I would even try to find a way to do some background checking - seriously. Verify employment (current and past), degrees he claims to have, achievements he boasts of, etc. People lie.


    Do a little reading about Jeffrey Marsalis the nations worst date rapist to see how predators operate.


    Error of the side of safety.


    1 Sep 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting story which could mean fifty different things. Perhaps he is telling the truth on all counts and you are reading too much into it. Then again on the opposite end of the possibility spectrum, he could be a serial rapist looking for a night time rendevous or in still another scenario he is just shy and backing out. There is no telling which of fifty scenarios exists here so if you must know, meet in a public place and insist on daytime hours when it works for both. My biggest point of confusion here is.... what does this have to do with investing????
    2 Sep 2013, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • @ ROS


    Nothing to do with investing. Just wanted a guy perspective, and there's a bunch here, and it's weekend so "time off". Pig roasting isn't an investing topic either :). Please ignore if it's not of interest if that's okay...
    2 Sep 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Was just asking but like I said, it could be one of 50 different possibilities. It's impossible to evaluate based on your story but with that said, where any stranger is ever concerned, stay away... ANY risk is not worth it.


    By the way... I don't like pig roasts... can't stand looking at the whole thing just lying there. :-)
    2 Sep 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @ROS


    Forgive me as maybe I did not explain my intent of this blog when you were around. As we develop trust in reasons why we invest then I was hoping for trust and on line friendships as well.


    It took CURLS courage to tell a personal story and I gave her a straight answer just as I would a very good friend. I still stand by my answer and I am sure she was somewhat confused and bothered by it to ask for opinions.


    I also too will from time to time, hence why I have revealed my health issues and so have you. So no disrespect to anyone but EVERYTHING is open for discussion.


    I hope I cleared that up as a few of us are probably close to if not over a year in chatting and I see nothing wrong with asking personal opinions. I want to know what is going on in anyone's life if they want to share it.


    As ROS said he may have had 50 reasons, but the BIGGEST one was not calling you. imo. I am sure if some of you have daughters you might feel the same. Like I said I don't sugarcoat personal potential problems. This to me sounded like one!
    2 Sep 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @ROS


    You eat Chinese ? Never mind !!
    2 Sep 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • @ ROS & everyone


    So I've decided this is related to investing...


    It's seems easier to spot a serial rapist / problem person, than figure out the insider manipulations in the stock market!


    Coin's posted a gold-manipulation article in the portfolio blog, that's very subtle. I also checked out ABC''s article on Jeffrey Marsalis that JW suggested:


    His profile would have never gotten my attention. Really odd need for control in it (looking for someone who's "not blaming others for incidentals that might happen?" What is that? And the invite to a "magical ride" is so classic over the top.)


    I've read a few SA articles where the pumping seemed possible. A couple where the answers felt too slick...


    So just saying... instincts count here too with investing.


    I was pretty lost at the pig roast. I ate a lot of side dishes. Even though I knew, it's just a good old fashioned BBQ.


    On this guy, we'd started an interesting conversation with intent to finish it (wasn't a date; I think it would have bothered me less if it was). I agree there's no way to tell what the story is. And you have even less info than I have.


    When he didn't call as committed, I went back over and the story shifted possibilities. I'd already flagged each bit with a "caution", but, it's been helpful to see pretty much everyone's had the same reaction to the same pieces. Even more so. He didn't seem the shy type...


    On personal safety I've read a few excellent books ("Back Off!" and "The Gift of Fear" stand out.) Hebba posted an article a long while back that was very good, about pump and dumps. Any one read anything else excellent on insider manipulations?
    2 Sep 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    I went to church and misplaced your number !! (JOKING)


    But seriously as a dad of a 25 year old I would tell her to drop this one quickly.


    Sorry as I do not sugarcoat things like this. Be careful.


    Friend in hospital, then church, followed by a no call? FORGET HIM.


    1 Sep 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • curls,


    I agree with IT.
    2 Sep 2013, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks... no worries, it was a potential friend not relationship (and he knew that.)


    I stuck with the usual, afternoon coffee in public place.... always the way to go.


    He's an immigrant, so I always find the culture interaction is different. Nothing seemed off. We'd talked religion so church wasn't that odd. But the 8-9pm suggestion was odd sounding. So you all have seen /heard of this being done?


    I just don't think "snookering" very often....
    1 Sep 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Curls, I don't know how old you are, but I would not trust someone who gave excuses, then didn't call, etc. Now I'm in my 50s & I think times have changed. There are too many weirdos out there, looking for someone to take advantage of.


    It's hard to meet new people, especially ones you can trust. I would never go online to meet anyone....that's where the weirdos troll the most. I've heard that the "Christian" match site is one of the worst for women. All the rapists love it, it's their favorite site. Wow. Can't trust anyone you don't know.


    I like the idea of doing background checks. Along with criminal records, check their credit. People with bad credit are obviously not good with money, but they also tend to be unreliable people.


    If you like history or archeology, you can go on vacations to sites that need volunteers to help excavate a site. Or take college classes, you meet interesting people that way. Community college, creative writing/that kind of thing. How about photography?


    I met my husband back in 1982 when the world cup was being played. I had gone with other friends to watch a game, and met him there. We were both in college at the time.


    If I was single, I'd join some clubs. We have some great stuff in the town I live in. The "citizens for informed land use" is always trying to get me to join ;) Another fun thing is join a wine tasting club at your local wine store. My cousin (her husband died at 47, she's 58 now) belongs to all sorts of clubs & has a blast. She has a job in a pharmacy, so she meets lots of people. I don't think she has time to be lonely. Her neighbors are great too, the kids help her take care of her horses. That way she can get away once in awhile.


    Be safe out there, watch out for Mr. Charming who will try to empty your bank account or more. So many women get scammed by con artists, even smart women. Stay frosty!
    2 Sep 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Any thoughts on why Small Caps Russell are holding up so well compared to "safer" large caps?
    2 Sep 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • When the Hedge Fund Managers want to get a bang for their bucks, they go after high tech ( Nasdaq) and then Russell 2000. RUssell 2000 had the biggest gans in the last year. OnFriday , IWM ( corresponding to Russell 2000) completed 5 steps down of Leg 1 Down. It is ready to rally to previous highs. That is why I am heavily long (TNA) which is 3X leveraged ETF for Russell 2000. Silver is also very strong after consolidating in the last 4 days till Sept 1. It will rally to new highs in till we hit Syria a week from next Wednesday. Congress has no choice but to approve the President's request . Gold and Silver will both decline after Sept 10 or 11. In the mean time enjoy the rally . (USLV) is 3X leveraged bullish bet on Silver. That is why I am buying it today.
    3 Sep 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Gold went down sharply in Hongkong on Monday morning and then recovered most of the losses today.
    Markets around the wold are rallying today and it will happen here tomorrow also. Please BUY (TNA) with 1/2 of the balance of my money tomorrow morning . At the same time buy (USLV) with the balance .
    3 Sep 2013, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • @ Thank Dr. K


    So it's what I was thinking... that more "in the know" investors were still in the market. That's why small caps were holding, while large caps where safety-seekers went, would be going down.


    What are the legs and steps part of? Is there a link somewhere that describes them?
    4 Sep 2013, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Interest rates are heading up, gold and silver are as well. Now lets see what stocks do by the end of the day !!


    Physical, let's get physical !! ( YOU FOLKS ARE HAPPY YOU CAN'T HEAR ME SING )
    3 Sep 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Listening to the Senate hearing... this is hard to conceive.


    > We're going to intervene to make Assad lose...without taking any strong actions that will effect the outcome.
    > We're aiming to take down Assad enough for an diplomatic agreement to form. Um, in which he'll have what roll? Death? He won't be accepted as dictator, and won't accept less.


    It's like saying we're going to jump into a weaponized fist fight to take away a particular weapon... without impacting the fight... while helping one side win.


    I don't know what to say except... Huh?
    3 Sep 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • curls,


    Its only hard to conceive if you are a rational, thinking person.


    I would not accuse those present for the hearings of being that (with the exception of just a few).
    3 Sep 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well Kerry just screwed up that briefing huh? Seems to me he did not rule out troops possibly having to follow up.


    Let's see how the markets react, if at all.


    3 Sep 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • @ JW


    I come from a different perspective. I do believe there were CWs and deaths, caused by Assad's side.


    What I have trouble with, is the weird & contradictory goals they have set for this action.... so that it HAS to fail, at it's umm, goals. They aren't being straight about what they're motivated by. Or much more frightening (and I suspect reality) is they are being straight, and this is as logical as they all get.


    Alex Jone's stuff is a bit extreme, and I'd view it with at least the same caution as MSM. It needs verification. And it's not held to the same standards, so they can be a lot more lax. They say right in the article footnotes, that stuff hasn't been independently verified.
    4 Sep 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • " I do believe there were CWs and deaths, caused by Assad's side."




    No one doubts that chemical weapons were used, the problem is no one has yet provided any documented proof that it was Assad who did this. Until that proof is provided there is no basis to take any action.


    The article that John posted above is really more believable that what is being spouted by the MSM and the war hawks. I have read other articles similar to the one John posted.
    If that article isnt true why is there no evidence to support the govt claims.


    Did you see how riled up Kerry got when Rand Paul called his bluff? Kerry did not offer any evidence to support his claims.


    This is a false flag operation.
    4 Sep 2013, 05:52 AM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat & JW


    I tend to disagree with you and John on this. I see lots of holes in the false flag story and find it less believable than the info that Assad used them. We'll have to agree to disagree on that.


    What's posted here is undocumented assertions from random heresay, and from people who'd have reason to say whatever they want. Claiming one thing isn't true, does -not- make another thing true. i.e. If the government doesn't have evidence, that doesn't make this article's theories at all true. This neck of the world is prone to outlandish conspiracy statements all the time, so claims by people have to be heavily checked out.


    (An example - there's a mayor in Egypt who with a straight face, and printed in the papers & believed by many, described how Israel trained wild roaming sharks to attack only tourists to Egyptian resort areas. There's a whole bunch of examples like that with substantial "proofs.")


    The govt claimed they have recordings of prepping with gas masks -- have you tracked that down? (I haven't tried to yet.)


    Kerry was riled all afternoon, and said very little that was coherent, or on point to answer questions. He wasn't different with Paul's questions. ...or come to think of it, from when he campaigned, he still can't communicate.
    4 Sep 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • If you are PO'd about striking Syria, and want to tell them about it here is a template for an email. Just copy and paste and edit.


    [How to contact and write to US Senators. This has a link to Senator's email addresses too.]



    [Letter Format:]


    [Your name and address]


    The Honorable (Name)
    United States Senate
    Washington, D.C. 20510


    Dear Senator (Name)


    [Content of letter: this is a sample of what I wrote]


    I am writing to voice my objection to military intervention in the Syrian civil war. There will be votes this week in the Senate to authorize military strikes against the Syrian military based on the hasty and probably incorrect conclusion that the Syrian military randomly used chemical weapons on their own civilian population. As the Senator from my state I urge you to vote against the authorization of US military strikes against the nation of Syria.


    I view the arming of various rebel factions as equivalent to throwing gasoline on a fire.


    The same rationale was used to initiate the war in Iraq and it was learned after the war was commenced that there were no weapons of mass destruction. We should not make a similar mistake again.


    I am in favor of providing aid to refugees and those who are displaced by this conflict.


    Thank you for considering this request; it is my belief that many other Americans have similar feelings about going into another war hastily.




    [your name]
    4 Sep 2013, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • John,


    Thanks for posting the letter copy, think I'll use it today.
    4 Sep 2013, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • @JW


    Personally, I find posting a whole formatted letter for others to use, is a little much here. It'd be fine to post what you'd put into the letter. But by posting a formatted layout --- it's a kin to soliciting for a cause...




    The same rational was NOT used for the Iraq War. That was a different president. Different data. I'm not going to assume things about one president based on another one. (Nor assume all is okay with one based on another one.)


    I also am still sure that Iraq had WMD and shipped them off.


    Conspiracy theories work in all directions.


    I just thought any war would be thought about more carefully, with more time waited for UN support and additional countries to investigate for themselves, before deciding.


    I'm not "PO'ed" about this. It may make sense. So far I'm not seeing a rational plan. But I do believe the upset about CWs and Assad is legitimate. Just that the plan / reaction isn't making any sense yet.
    4 Sep 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • Curls,


    You don't have to answer these questions, but just curious what your line of thinking is for my writing;


    1. If one leader/dictator is assumed to gas his own people, killing 500 to 1,500 of them, does it make sense for another world power or powers to kill 3,000 to stop any further killing, including the lives of those sent in to make life better for said leader/dictator's country?


    2. Are you a Christian?


    3. If you are a Christian, are you a dispensationalist?


    4. Do you have any former or current family members in the military?


    Thanks...I won't reply with any rebuttal, but just trying to understand your point of view better, as you are those who might think differently.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • @ Doug


    1. I never said killing 3000 to prevent further any killing makes sense. Not sure how you'd read that into what I wrote. I didn't even say I support bombing. Important to read what I said, and not read expectations into it beyond what I wrote.


    2. No


    3. N/A


    4. Not really


    I probably do thinking differently than several people here. I may use different resources, and past experiences.


    Most people I met in 2001 thought going into Afghanistan made sense. I thought it was completely loony, and immoral. (And I lived in a very liberal area.)


    It'd be better to take this offline to PM, if you want to.
    4 Sep 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks curls. The first question was not about what you said, but a general statement that I wanted you to answer yes or no with, or give me your thoughts so I understand your thinking better. It was a concept or example, if you will, of a scenario that is similar to what is going on in Syria right now and what our leaders should do. They want to avenge the death of 500 to 1500 people who were gassed by possibly killing 500 - 5000 or more.


    Appreciate your responses.


    No right or wrong answer. Just trying to understand why people think the way they do and what reasoning they may have for it. My goal in my 3rd book (not the Illusions one) is to bring people together in love for one another and to do so, I have to understand where people come from and why they think the way they do; patterns from parents, religion, left vs. right, etc.).




    5 Sep 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug


    There's no plan to kill 500-5000 more people. They're talking surgical strikes on weapons stores. One can argue whether it's realistic. (Israel does successfully do surgical strikes.) But your question doesn't work - since it's not anyone's stated "plan."


    Based on the answers I gave, you still have no idea what I'm thinking, (beyond my prior posts here.)


    Even your questions would imply you assumed or thought you saw, what isn't accurate at all to where I'm coming from... but i'd need to explain that in PM, not here.


    So if you have enough, great. If not, I'd rather be specific in private messages.
    5 Sep 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • curls, I never used the word "plan." But to that point, does anyone really "plan" any killing of anyone when they bomb? I would think it's assumed. Casualties of war. Collateral Damage. Innocents always die.


    As to Israel's success ratio;


    No need to PM. But thanks for your replies. My book is a Christian book as to why they think the way they do. Your answers were sufficient for my research purposes. Wasn't trying to dig into anything else you were saying as I only read your replies to me.


    5 Sep 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • @ Doug


    You're using wiki as a source of neutral data on Israel?? Just the sources alone in that section on Israel, are notorious for being heavily Pali politically tilted, & known for inaccuracy (rag journalism). Israel has one of the best collateral damage rates in the world. That entry is for regular hits in a particular war. And that's where Hamas stationed itself squarely among civilians (their tunnels they shot from were under people's homes and businesses. Their military "bases" were in metropolitan towns, not off in the countryside.).


    However, I was referring to their surgical strikes. Israel's consistently hit weapons stores, without damaging buildings on either side. So yes, it's possible to do surgical strikes without any (or 1-2 misplaced people) of collateral damage. (While 1-2 people is terrible, and unacceptable, it's not the same the 5000 you initially asked about.)


    For surgical strikes, consider the first couple days of the war the wiki article refers to -- all those hits on weapons stores, and practically no collateral damage. Only civilians hit were because weapons were stored in mosques and schools. So though hits were in middle of night, & off hours...


    My worry isn't collateral damage from the plan. It's political damage, and all the fall-out that could lead to more instead of less deaths, in the world.


    You didn't ask anyone else about being supportive of massively killing people -- so that's why I took it personally as something you thought you'd read in my prior comments.


    Yes, I used the word plan. You were referring to the plan as you see it being implemented. It's not the "stated" plan. That's why I said one can debate how realistic it is in implementation. I was splitting it into two topics. One is the plan. The other the implementation. Obviously I have a different conclusion about how the implementation can (possibly) go from you. So it's worth splitting into two topics.


    I do think if you want to filter my answers into anything (including my one word answers), you'd need to ask me more. But if it's off your topic, then glad to help. Best of success.
    5 Sep 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • curls, Wiki is a source of sources. They document everything with footnotes of where the information comes from. What I quoted came straight from Israel's oldest newspaper Haaretz (not "rag journalism), which said the numbers were too low. Perhaps I should have just used that link. Normally I do, but I am busy. Thank you.


    Your comment that Israel does do successful surgical strikes was taken at its face and I simply showed data to the contrary. Yes, it was for a specific timeframe, but I didn't know this wasn't relevant to your broad claim of surgical strikes not having any effect on the innocents.


    Now you admit there is collateral damage (small as it is, and I'm not talking buildings, but humans) and one or two lives aren't the same as 5,000, and you are more concerned about the political damage. .


    I didn't ask anyone else as you replied to me and I wanted to understand your position better which I do now. When tampat made a comment to me, I replied to him. Not picking on you. Just trying to understand you.


    You answered my questions and I had no reason to ask any more and if you were Christian and had those views, I would have.


    Thanks again..
    5 Sep 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug


    Haaretz used to be respected. They are now considered rag journalism by Israelis.


    They literally print different text in English than in Hebrew -- text that's false. (CAMERA has the details outlined, and I personally stopped reading them, when in a single article, the number of causalities was different at the start of the article and the end. It was the last straw on inaccurate reporting for me, after seeing many such things.


    I'm not more concerned with the political damage, than deaths. That's not what I said. I said that in assessing this, I'm more concerned with all how it all politically plays out. Ultimately how that plays out, is all about how many real people are dead in the end. I'm just less worried about dead from surgical strikes now, than potential dead from political fallout (with risk both from bombing and from not bombing) - both dead in Syria, the ME in general, the US, and the world. I want to consider the big picture as well as the immediate action!!


    Wiki for a long time claimed my car model wasn't made in the year that I owned. I'd change it. It'd change back. Wiki is to be taken with a huge grain of salt on anything, including controversial.


    I don't understand the rest of what you wrote. I don't "now admit to" anything, since I wasn't discussing collateral damage with you to begin with. And I'm not saying 1-2 people in dozens of strikes has to happen. It's a far cry from "intent to bomb 5000" that you asked me about.


    Your wiki link was about a war where militants were on the ground among civilians. It had nothing to do with surgical strikes! I pointed out, that the equivalent to the US planned bombing, is the beginning bombing phase in that same wiki-referenced war --- where if you go back and check, the collateral damage was much, much smaller. (And in the end, I think they were each determined to be militants, not collateral.)


    You've managed to get to me have to answer you here, when I wanted to PM.


    No you don't understand my position better. You keep misstating it. And there's plenty I haven't said. So I'd say you don't understand it well. I don't think you need to, and that's fine by me - but please don't walk away thinking you have a good understanding of it.
    5 Sep 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • PS


    Doug why do you keep trying to interpret my comments as though I don't care about dead and injured? When there are more than one way to interpret words, this appears to be the tilt you're looking for. Why?
    5 Sep 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • curls, for some reason you like to twist what I say, so it is clear we are not speaking the same language to each other. Allow me to break down your statements.


    I never used the word "plan" but you still insinuate it.


    I explained how wiki works, thanking you for having me direct you to the link within wiki, and you still bash wiki and now the oldest Newspaper in Israel as if you know what every Israeli thinks.


    You claim I say 5,000 when I clearly gave you a range of 500-5000, calling it "a general statement" or "a concept or example." The numbers aren't the issue whether one life or 5,000 or 50,000. The original question was; "If one leader/dictator is assumed to gas his own people, killing 500 to 1,500 of them, does it make sense for another world power or powers to kill 3,000 to stop any further killing, including the lives of those sent in to make life better for said leader/dictator's country?"


    I don't have an agenda with you, but it is misleading with some of your replies as to what I said.
    I just wanted a yes or no answer to that first question. Then you could have provided an explanation, but it is clear from this back and forth you didn't understand the intent of the question and I clearly said I wouldn't reply as I know how these things end up (what you and I just went through where it gets out of control, lol).


    Regarding your "PS," you said two things in your second to last reply, which I thought I understood, but maybe didn't;


    "Only civilians hit were because weapons were stored in mosques and schools. So though hits were in middle of night, & off hours...


    "My worry isn't collateral damage from the plan."


    then you follow that up with; " I'm more concerned with all how it all politically plays out. Ultimately how that plays out, is all about how many real people are dead in the end. I'm just less worried about dead from surgical strikes now, than potential dead from political fallout."


    If I were to summarize these statements, then you are less concerned about a few dying than more dying because of political fallout? So you accept a few dying (whatever number "few" represents?" If I have this correct, then it is the blowback from this that leads to even more deaths. My point of view, as I stated above, is to reach out in love, not missiles or surgical strikes or drone attacks or undeclared wars, all of which Obama and Bush have done.


    If I don't have it correct, then please let me know.
    5 Sep 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • @ Doug


    You don't have it correct.


    I will respond to a few things. For the rest I'll insist that if you're curious, PM me.


    You said: "you still bash wiki and now the oldest Newspaper in Israel as if you know what every Israeli thinks. "


    I didn't "bash." I gave specific clear examples of why neither is to be taken as point blank factual. Your reply ignored my very valid points. For instance, Haaretz is now purposely mistranslating it's own articles in order to sell better to those who dislike Israel. (see CAMERA link).


    I do know the general perception, feel of Israelis on Haaretz -- from many, many sources. "What every israeli thinks" isn't even relevant here, and is false argument claim. Neither is the age of the paper, since it doesn't give automatic modern legitimacy. The wiki articles non-neutrality IS an issue. It references ONLY a couple HARD left sources. Making it a poor way to come to a final conclusion.


    You say:
    "You claim I say 5,000 when I clearly gave you a range of 500-5000"


    You started with 3000 people killed. Not a range of 500-5000. I didn't remember that you'd used 3000, not 5000 when I wrote my sentence. You shifted it later on down to 500, but I was going with your original question. Which you repeat again here.


    You say:
    " but it is misleading with some of your replies as to what I said. "


    Huh? We're miscommunicating. You're calling that me "misleading"? You want to build love, then don't accuse someone of doing wrong, and use harsh words about them. How about, you're not reading carefully, or you don't know much about me, or you can't hear tone of voice, or I wrote my thoughts poorly, or you're reading into them from your expectation....


    You say: " just wanted a yes or no answer to that first question. "


    You didn't ask for one.


    You did initially comment to me (way up there), and then I replied to you. So you did select me, and I was replying to you. Bluesky's & Tampat listed their views, but you haven't asked them these questions.


    What type of Christian denomination do you practice?


    On the rest - ask me in PM.
    5 Sep 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Never mind curls...


    You'd be a good reporter for some mainstream organization.


    Take care.
    6 Sep 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug


    Nothing I said is "mainstream." And insulting me, isn't "spreading love."
    6 Sep 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting you take it as an insult. It was a compliment as to how mainstream reporters try and twist what people say and I am very aware of this tactic by them or by you. You did it again with the numbers. Instead of quoting me exactly, you throw out what you think I said. The numbers don't matter as I have said. They are arbitrary.


    I tried to summarize what you said and you ignored it. "If I were to summarize these statements, then you are less concerned about a few dying than more dying because of political fallout? So you accept a few dying (whatever number "few" represents?" If I have this correct, then it is the blowback from this that leads to even more deaths. My point of view, as I stated above, is to reach out in love, not missiles or surgical strikes or drone attacks or undeclared wars, all of which Obama and Bush have done.


    If I don't have it correct, then please let me know."


    I stated in my first questions to you that I wouldn't reply. I knew it would go like this is the reason. You interpret what I say as non-loving. That's ok. I don't think most reading it would agree, but appreciate your opinion.


    As far as your private message to me, I have no reason to reply to those accusations either. Nothing I said would be construed by anyone as negative. I clearly have repeated that I was trying to understand your point of view. I know Tampat's views from past conversations and didn't read what Bluesky even said.
    9 Sep 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug


    I've repeatedly asked you to take this to PM. You haven't respected my wishes.


    Please don't claim someone "twisting things" is a complement, and think anyone will agree with you. So, if you're supposed goal is "spreading love", you're failing.


    My views - no you haven't the foggiest - nor do I care.
    9 Sep 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    "Personally, I find posting a whole formatted letter for others to use, is a little much here. It'd be fine to post what you'd put into the letter. But by posting a formatted layout --- it's a kin to soliciting for a cause..."


    Honestly, I have no problem this. I am fine with any point of view and I do not plan on censoring anyone either. I hope you understand but the forum is open to EVERYTHING . Including people with conviction. We did have that spirited religious debate and maybe this will start another one.


    I try to be different and let freedom reign..
    4 Sep 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • @ IT


    I clearly said I was open to ALL opinions. I was uncomfortable with, and felt it was in my face a bit, to add a formatted formal way to push that opinion forward. I'm sure JW didn't mean it that way.
    4 Sep 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    I did not think he was in your face, I think he has a conviction that others might carry. You opening paragraph had me feeling differently about your post.


    If I misunderstood you then I am sorry.


    Formatting might actually help the lurkers !!
    4 Sep 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Interesting concept, that freedom reign thing.
    4 Sep 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TAMPAT


    I read that in a History book! You should have seen what it was like years ago...


    Love the POTUS now says the WORLD drew that red line....Huh ?
    4 Sep 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • The world eh? Wonder what world he is referring to.
    Was funny listening to them say yesterday about how the 'world' agreed after the big world war no one would use chemical weapons. I was hoping someone would ask Kerry what about Iraq using them in the 80's with US support.
    Ummm, well, its ok for us, but not anyone else without our approval.
    4 Sep 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The more I see on TV , for whatever that is worth, I don't see us bombing Syria. However can you imagine if we do it on 9/11 ? TAMPAT...Notice how many post you have right now?


    Just sayin>>


    Meanwhile COINS you better set it up as a few of us are creeping up on ya !!




    I GUESS you don't wanna play with us eh?
    4 Sep 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I didnt notice the number of posts until you pointed that out.
    That 9/11 timing sounds just about right for this.


    I read this morning that they say they have circumstantial evidence of Assad doing this. I guess real evidence isnt needed anymore.


    Other than that, I dont know what you're talking about with the other comment.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder what the markets are so happy about today.
    Maybe its because the Syria attack will postpone any tapering?
    4 Sep 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat


    I'm wondering the same thing - happy why?


    Thinking that any attack is not be immediate so they're buying the last dip? But tapering not happening makes more sense. I can't seem the big players concluding there won't be any.
    4 Sep 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TAMPAT


    Join us in the challenge? Not too late !
    4 Sep 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • @Curls


    When you hear a story like this from the likes of McCain and John Kerry, the first reaction to it should automatically be "they're lying." If nothing is verified at this point, we shouldn't be jumping into war.


    In Syria, the chemical weapon attack, seems to have been an accidental discharge by the rebels from a storage location used by the rebels. There was nothing strategic about it. Like I said, they want to push this through on hype and emotion as fast as possible before it is learned what really happened.


    As for the letter, the "format" for the letter was provided by the web site. The content of the letter that I put into it is my own view on the topic; it is a view just like we have views on investment topics. If someone wants to use the letter, they may modify the content.


    We can say that this topic even has investment implications. The dollar, T-Bonds and stocks have already moved as a result of impending military action.


    You should do some research on Iraqi WMD. All investigations have concluded that they did not exist, except for the chemical and biological weapons that Reagan/Bush supplied to Hussein to use against Iran.


    Listen to the song "Don't Get Fooled Again" by the Who today. Here is the lyrics:


    Hey, this is a great idea. I'm gonna call my local classic rock radio station and request "Don't Get Fooled Again" to be played all week in awareness of the House and Senate action on Syria.
    4 Sep 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • edit, 1st sent, para 1, strike "the likes of McCain and John Kerry", repl w/ "a politician"; end edit


    That would fix it.
    4 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • @ JW


    I disagree with you on many points. Again, we'll need to agree to disagree.


    I do not automatically assume anyone is lying. Nor telling the truth. I do the same with the link you provided, and see many, many holes in that claim that it was accidental rebels. Nor do I think this is "pushing through before anyone can realize." That was a Bush method. I'm not "assuming" the same for others just because Bush did it.


    By posting the formal letter write while we were discussing and no one else was here -- it felt very much a response to put it forward - to me. It's morning now, and I'll assume that wasn't the case.


    I'm well aware that WMD weren't found. But I still have a sneaking sense based on the same type of conspiracy theories you presented here, that there was stuff that got removed before anyone came, anywhere close to looking.


    How about a song that says, don't judge thinks in the future by assuming they'll be identical to the past?


    ...Judge each very individually with it's own merits. Each market movement is a little different too. Past performance is not a predictor of future performance. I've noticed that the intraday movements during this war-news are very different patterns than for the last 4 months that I've been watching.


    Yep, it all applies to investing in it's own way.
    4 Sep 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Curls
    Our politicians have earned the right to be called liars.
    They are betting on the average citizen having a short memory.


    Should we really think it will be different each time?


    "That which has been is that which will be, And that which has been done is that which will be done. So, there is nothing new under the sun." (Eccl 1:9)


    Maybe you should write such a song -" don't judge things in the future by assuming they'll be identical to the past." I'm sure the politicians will buy it :-)
    4 Sep 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • @ JW


    I'm fine tuning it. Politicians lie. But not in the same way every time. To look for the same style of crazy every time -- misses the chance to see what's happening.


    This time I'm wondering what the motivation it for Obama when he's usually so "careful" that he misses the boat.


    Same thing I said on 9/11 theories. The counter theories have to be put to the same scrutiny as the official versions. And very rarely do they hold up.
    4 Sep 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • To all
    I am not in the Portfolio Challenge, but I have recently taken positions with real money in the mREIT sector with (AGNC) and IVR. AGNC is holding above its 50 day MA after apparently bottoming recently. AGNC yields almost 19% AFTER cutting its dividend in June. Any decline has been met with strong rebounds and now it seems to be in a technical confirmation above the 50 day. From where it is now $22.80 it could have a $3 to $5 pop. IVR yields about 17% and has EPS of $3.12 to cover a dividend of $2.60. Looks like the dividend is safe.


    I am just saying that the mREIT group may be ready for a breakout, especially if the market rebounds from here and if interest rate have stopped rising. You can track the whole sector with REM which is an ETF composed of holdings of the biggest mREITS. REM has not broken out yet and would still be considered to be 'bottoming,” and is 20 cents below its 50 day MA. It may hit it and back off again. However AGNC appears to be leading the group. IVR not to far behind.


    In mREITS I also hold TWO and CIM which may eventually be taken over by Annaly.


    Similar to the mREIT sector, the Municipal sector has been battered and is showing signs of rebounding. NEA yields almost 7% taxfree and is discounted about 10% below NAV - it is a CEF. I hold NEA and IIM in this group.


    These are just some things to look at
    4 Sep 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Before we send missiles to Syria, I think we should confirm a few things.


    1) who are the rebels? Are Al Queda & the Taliban in their ranks?


    2) really wouldn't put it past one of the rebel groups to have done the chemical weapons attack. On the other hand, Assad is the devil & his son was daring the US to attack. What a mess it would be if we get involved.


    3) maybe we should just help the refugees to get the h*ll out & help give them food & shelter. Let the bastards slaughter each's not our fight.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • As a side thought, imagine that while the US was mired in our own Civil War, France had decided to get involved. Or any other country.
    Would that have been right? I think it was up to us to fight our own Civil War.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • We did. And we lost.


    Every other country ended slavery without bloodshed. It seems we lust for it.


    But of course the war wasn't about slavery, lol.
    5 Sep 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    What will the POTUS look like if we don't bomb now?


    Serious question, are we now boxed into A CORNER TO DO SOMETHING? I could care less if he looks like an ass. But what will the USA look like?


    I am not so sure we will bomb as time passes on..imo.
    4 Sep 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • These days we have to buy at the opening or at the close. I have no problem with closing , but at the opening we have to place the order by 2AM. Most of us are asleep by 2 AM . Second we are not aware of what happened during the night. We should be allowed to place orders till 6AM PT.
    That is what everybody does in real life. We know about what happened during the night and can place orders accordingly.
    That will be the correct simulation of what is happening in real life.
    4 Sep 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @DR


    We did stop the 2AM deadline and you do have up to the 8.59 AM EST to place your trade and get the opening price. However if you post at 9AM EST you get that day's closing price.


    Now if you post during trading hours you get that day's closing price.


    Am I clear? Plus these comments should be placed in the portfolio chapter as well.


    4 Sep 2013, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks.
    5 Sep 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry for the confusion. I am trying to make everyone happy!!
    5 Sep 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • IT, I don't really care what the rest of the world thinks of the USA. Those that hate us, will continue to do so. Nothing will change their minds.


    We already spend more than the rest of the world on military, defense, etc. Why are we the world's police force?? Let someone else take the blame & foot the bill!
    5 Sep 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » If the POTUS does not have enough votes and decides not to bomb does this have an effect on the markets?
    5 Sep 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MOVING ALONG !!!

    5 Sep 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • An article supposedly about portfolio risk, but, a nice snapshot of "old school" investing:

    9 Sep 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • 3 articles from D. Short concerning employment:






    9 Sep 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
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