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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 35.........  213 comments
    Sep 5, 2013 9:47 PM

    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.






    I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!

    Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.

    For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (GLD) and (SLV).

    With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.

    Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!

    REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.

    If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!

    Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.

    My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.

    I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Tom, Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.

    These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!

    Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well

    LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (213)
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  • Author’s reply » Three Democrats may vote against Summers for Fed chief: WSJ
    9:13 PM ...


    "Senate Banking Committee members Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are among Democrats who will not support Larry Summers for Fed chief, WSJ says, citing congressional aides.


    If the three Democrats do indeed oppose him, Summers will need the support of at least some Republicans in order to get through the Committee to a vote on the Senate floor, as Democrats' majority on the panel is two seats.


    Facing potential opposition from both sides of the aisle, Summers may not be the best choice considering the market's disdain for uncertainty.


    "For a number of reasons, I don't know why the White House would go ahead and nominate Larry Summers," a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid tells the Journal."


    The POTUS is getting it from all sides. No wonder the markets are listless !!
    5 Sep 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like data coming in is decent, improving, so may be tapering. So if no bombing, then markets will get all happy mood, until right before the potential-tapering meetings.
    5 Sep 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » IF they do any bombing it is gonna be more than a few strategic strikes. Right now we look foolish and we usually don't end up looking like this !


    Could get messy ...
    5 Sep 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • The market is tanking because Obama continues to promote his bomb Syria agenda.


    Did anyone see the video of the rebels executing 6 Assad soldiers yesterday? These rebels are thugs, no better than Assad. And they include religious jihadis like Al Queda & Taliban. I don't know about you, but really, I do not want to help those people out.


    Taking out Saddam Hussein & "liberating" Iraq so they could have democracy was a disaster. Iran strengthened & all the religious jihadists got a big boost. Taking out Assad will have the same result. Iran gets stronger, the jihadis get stronger. Is this good for us? IMO, no.


    Maybe we should think about supporting Assad!


    And by the way, guess who sold chemical weapons to Iraq in the 1980s. That's right, President Reagan. The Iraqis used them against the Iranians. And later their own people, but it was okay to use them against the Iranians.
    6 Sep 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • BSF
    You are echoing my Aug 31 comment in the last chapter 34 about "saving" Iraq from Saddam Hussein. I made that point that the chemical and also biological weapons that Iraq had came from Reagan/Bush. The freedom fighters in Syria (at least part of them) are the ones who still do the suicide bombings in Iraq. Like, we want to help them??


    PS, you still need to read the book, "The Trillion Dollar Conspiracy"
    6 Sep 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • check out the history of Reagan & Bush Sr. selling chemical weapons to Iraq



    In this article, it is also pointed out that when Hussein gassed the Kurds, the US did why are we bombing Syria again??


    Oblahblah needs to shut up.
    6 Sep 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • IT: "Right now we look foolish..."
    Obama is not "us" or "we". Obama looks foolish.


    John B makes good point about cold- or maybe hot, war with Russia. Putin said about John Kerry's testimony to the Senate: "he is lying and he knows that he is lying." And Russia will aid Syria.


    The Dow just dropped 130 on Putin's "Aid Syria" comment.


    I wouldn't go along with the Def Leppard strike: do we really wany Al-Qaeda "freedom fighters" moving into the vacuum if Assad topples? It will not result in a nice clean democratic utopia. These are the same types that do the suicide bombings in Iraq.


    Let the administration back off and do nothing because of the public and international sentiment against them, and let them look stupid/incompetent because of the "red line" garbage that they got caught up in.


    --and then let's resume talking about the NSA spying, IRS scandal, what happened in Benghazi, Fast and Furious and all the rest.
    6 Sep 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW


    I am with you ! Just stay out of their Civil War and let them bring it back to the cave age, which it isn't that far away from anyway.


    One bomb cost a Million dollars if I heard it correctly, So how many do we plan on dropping 40, 50,??


    Put that money to work here !!
    6 Sep 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » August Nonfarm Payrolls: +169K vs. consensus +180K,


    +104K previous (revised down from +162K).Unemployment rate 7.3% vs. 7.4% consensus, 7.4% previous.


    Any one else notice that REVISED DOWNWARD number from 162K to 104k? Yet unemployment dropped again?


    Things that send you back to your calculator. Yet were hitting on all cylinders huh?


    6 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, am I paranoid or is anyone else worried about Syria using internet hacking to disrupt our lifestyles?


    Seems to me we are having more and more hacking going on then I ever remember. Can they do some serious damage to our infrastructure.?


    Made for a good book but can it be true?


    I may be wrong but the more we delay the bombing the less chance it will happen. People are not happy across the Country from what I see.
    8 Sep 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • @IT,


    I would think Syria's resources would presently be more occupied within their own borders or in messing with Quatar and Co that are directly supplying the rebels. Now Iran or some other unfriendlies in the region no doubt are trying to find out ways to screw with us.


    I'm thinking (hoping) you're right on the bombing thing. I've been against it from the beginning, but am rather appalled at how pathetic the administration has made America appear.
    8 Sep 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I watch Washington. I am not happy.


    " I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts."
    – Will Rogers


    I'd be more worried about the Chinese hacking. Remember, some countries are worried about NSA hacking and the Stutznet worm. We should also be worried about our gubm't hacking us.


    Reason US/Obama wants intervene militarily in Syria? - follow the money -who would benefit economically?


    "This is a strategic geopolitical conflict about natural resources, religion and money, and it really has nothing to do with chemical weapons at all."


    For a great collection of libertarian quotes, like the one above by Will Rogers, (includes Jefferson, Franklin, Adams) check out:
    8 Sep 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So we are suppose to believe that Syria will hand over ALL of their chemical weapons?


    Boy, I have a bridge to sell to those who really think this would happen.
    9 Sep 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Makes Obama kind of resemble that cop in Demolition Man... "Lie down, on the ground, or else!" Then Simon Phoenix proceeded to kick his butt.
    9 Sep 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • @IT & John


    I thought it was brilliant when I heard it... a way to save face, while not doing anything (what's going to really get turned over?) ... while declaring the team is effective... politicians at their best!


    (cough, cough)
    9 Sep 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • @ Curls,


    Looks like you called it. Good God, the State Department sucks.
    10 Sep 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • @ IT, Curls, and Co.


    Ooops on team is effective at 1015:



    Article supporting my initial "very scary, but I can buy it" conspiracy theory of Assad not being in control of his own wmds:



    A rather sobering view on the rebels:


    I find these articles hilarious as they are featured on The Guardian, which has been enthusiastically cheerleading every revolt in the world and stopping just short of calling for war in Russia over gay rights.
    9 Sep 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Syria's gotta be laughing at having to hand over a third of their chemical bombs.


    I hope no one believes they are handing over more then that with Russia helping them out.


    Disgusting !
    10 Sep 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • @ IT,


    I watched the Charlie Rose interview with Assad this morning. I find his threats against us pathetic as it is obvious that he's running low on supplies of Polydent.


    I cannot understand how Obama has let all of his advisors run amok giving contradictory statements to what he's been saying.


    My assessment that I only half-heartedly believed of Obama several years ago was that he just hired advisors and told them to do "whatever". The last two weeks or so has me fully believing that.


    I am and have been against bombing Syria. I am appalled at how poorly this situation has been handled. America just got shown up by a toothless (I mean that in the literal sense) dictator and a country that is a mere shadow of the Soviet Union. America will pay for this down the road in a situation that really matters. I can only hope we have a different administration during the next crisis.


    Our only hope appears to be everyone's favorite bipolar - drag queen - ex NBA great befriending evil regimes around the world and convincing them to behave.
    10 Sep 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER


    This is NOW about the POTUS saving face. He could care less how many weapons are turned over. He just wants to do some chest bumping.


    10 Sep 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Worse than pathetic. He can't even save face - it's quite obvious that Kerry shot off his mouth and the Russians jumped on it and now Obama is claiming credit for this.


    I don't really care if the weapons are destroyed or seized or whatever - they are not hard to make compared to nukes.


    My concern is that he just showed the administration is a shambles when it comes to making a hard decision on a semi-important issue. If a REAL threat comes up to the US, are you going to have any confidence that we would respond to it? Would whoever is instigating hypotheitical threat have second thoughts before inititating it?


    Kerry to resign - let Dennis Rodman take over. Hell, let him take over the entire administration. He seems level headed and can talk to people.
    10 Sep 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER


    Plus I would like to watch that basketball game as well:)
    10 Sep 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • I'd guess the neocons and war mongers are so mad they could spit right about now. Also very disappointed are Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Syrian rebels.


    Syria was to be the stepping stone to go after Iran.


    I think this whole thing was a 'false flag' operation from the start.


    This is not over, just delayed. They will find some kind of non-compliance with the CW's, and I would guess next time Obama wont consult congress and will stuff a sock in Kerry's mouth.
    10 Sep 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Not so sure Kerry did this on his own. Me thinks he was TOLD to drop that hint to SAVE the POTUS !!
    10 Sep 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • That could be right. He needed a save on this one big time.
    I read yesterday that German intelligence intercepted messages showing Assad specifically telling his commanders they could not use any CW's.


    I keep waiting for someone to challenge Kerry, Rice and the gang about the US supporting Saddam when he used CW's against Iran in the '80s. Oops.
    10 Sep 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It could have been Assad's brother who is the leader of the military who gave the order...Humm..
    10 Sep 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • @Tampat


    Israel's position is and has been neutral. With Hamas & PLO headquartered in Syria, they weren't as worried about Al-Quaeda, as merely which everyday Syrians turn rebel.


    Israelis polled 50% as certain that if US hit Syria, they'd be hit next and need their gas masks.


    The POTUS's plan (or lack of or whatever this was) messed with Israel the worst. His making the US look weak, cost them the most safety. They were much better off without this mess, and not challenging of Assad.... same as they've been, & has been their policy, all along.


    Jews are 75-85% liberals, in US, in Israel, most everywhere. So neocons never made sense. Israelis go right only when left has gotten them bombed, then they recover and go left again.


    Agreed, it may not be over. I'd expect Obama to take this easy way out... but he seems bent on making a war out of this in the weirdest of ways. So I can't read what he's thinking. Doesn't match his previous actions. Doesn't include any clear planning or intelligent thinking. He's increased danger to US, Israel, and pretty much everyone else in the process. Syrians too are way worse off for all of this.
    10 Sep 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • curls,


    Israel (the govt) isn't neutral, they would love to get the US to take out both Syria and Iran. Netanyahu is well known as a hawk.




    WASHINGTON/NEW YORK – Jewish groups are preparing a blitz on Capitol Hill this week to salvage a resolution that would authorize the use of force in Syria in response to a devastating chemical weapons attack outside Damascus on August 21.


    AIPAC in sending nearly 300 activists and lobbyists to meet personally with House members on the Hill throughout the week.



    I dont see any increased danger to the US at all regardless which way this goes.
    10 Sep 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat


    Israel IS neutral. It's mythology that likes to claim Israel is everyone's motivator and problem child for everything...


    Netanyahu is known as a hawk to the anti-Israel crowd. He's more neutral than that. He's not looking for war, only for ending the threats to Israel.


    The Israeli govt's position has been and still is neutral on Syria. Taking out Syria is against their interests! Same as taking out Iraq was against their interests (destablized Iran) and their PM went to Bush and asked him not to invade.


    They aren't looking for the US to take out Iran either. Their interests are only to stop Iran's nuke program.


    For that they don't need the US to start a war. That would be harmful for Israel, as they're the target right there. Their interests are enough intimidation that Iran doesn't go nuclear and target them. That's it.


    Aipac is only one group. They tend to a hawkish position on how to get to goals. But there are many other organizations on Israel relations. And US groups are not the same as Israel anyway.


    POTUS's handling of this is dangerous for Israel. So NOW some groups such as Aipac are looking for a limited bombing, to make the point that the US is strong. That weakness effects the US too, very much. It makes US a target for those who see weakness as an invite to attack. It won't be as immediate as with Israel, but this fiasco will bring more attempts at US on US soil and US embassies and interests overseas. It's not an excuse to start WWIII (in my view), but it is a valid part of the lose-lose problem that's been created by this fiasco, and why it's so hard to get out of this mess properly...


    50% afraid of Israelis after of retailation at Israel that Syria will do with a US bombing... DOES effect what that democracy's goals are.
    10 Sep 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • BUY $75000 worth of (NUGT) at closing today. This is sold out and I expect a nice rally in GOLD starting tomorrow .posted att 12:30 PM PT today
    10 Sep 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @DR


    You posted AFTER the close of trading today so you can either get tomorrows opening price or void this transaction.


    If you do not respond you will get the opening price tomorrow. Sorry, but that is the rule ..


    I have seen your post being on time so I cannot honor you writing posted at 12.30 PT time. You could have PM'D me instead if you thought you were having posting issues.
    10 Sep 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Putin just schooled our POTUS ....


    This is just a joke. Trust Russia ? Give me a break...
    10 Sep 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I see Mortgage applications plunged. But were still hitting on all cylinders right?
    11 Sep 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Noticing... that prices are dropping -more- for misses than they had been. Anyone else noticing that? Makes a better buy opportunity as overselling reactions are bigger?


    Also wondering... the market was up for two days as the "possibility" of a Syria solution was suggested (weapons turning over). Yet, today it's not flying high on POTUS's speech afterhours yesterday that he's going that route. Is that because the info was baked in on the "rumor" so not relevant on the "news"?


    Is it that now that Syria is not the topic, the taper is coming back into mind?




    Listening to CNBC - they're claiming there's no way to construct a serious argument for a bear market. ....that sounds scary bearish to me...


    They're saying retail investors have been staying out, and may come back.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Got my own answer -- DOW was going up. It was Apple's drop that was bringing SP500 & Nasdaq down. So there was some more movement up from the "news."
    11 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Can O'Bamacare be dying?


    GOP delays government funding bill
    4:15 AM


    House Republican leaders yesterday postponed a vote that would have approved the funding of the government through December. The delay came because of opposition among conservative Republicans to parts of the legislation related to the funding of Obamacare, which they want to strip out.


    The government faces a shutdown if legislation isn't approved by September 30. Democrats and Republicans also have to soon agree on measures to lift the debt cap.
    12 Sep 2013, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lets add this info to the info machine !!


    Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly falls
    5:11 AM EZU


    Eurozone industrial production returned to contraction in July, tumbling to -1.5% on month from +0.6% in June and missing consensus of +0.1%.


    On year, output -2.1% vs -0.4% and -0.1%.


    The worse-than-expected figures bring into doubt the sustainability of the eurozone's nascent recovery from recession and are somewhat in contrast to more upbeat PMI data.


    The euro takes a tumble and is now -0.2% at $1.3287. (PR)


    Any effect on worldwide markets expected??
    12 Sep 2013, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Check out the portfolio folks, Me thinks the DR needs a DR. !!
    12 Sep 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • It's the third leg down in a wider 2nd up wave. In the second phase, you would expect to see 7 down legs, and 3 up legs.


    I like to tease the Elliott people. ;)
    12 Sep 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JB


    Was it 7 down legs or 8? Then I thought it was 5 up legs? Those guys always confuse me as it seems to change with the wind..
    12 Sep 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK, someone answer me this. Summers says no mas and the markets take off,


    Did companies fundamentals change or are we just hooked on easy money? Does this smell of a bubble to anyone?


    I really don't like it when ONE person can make a market dance, not one bit !
    16 Sep 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • IT, CNBC's Cramer made some interesting points about Summers being taken off the list for Fed chief.



    So a lot of hedge fund managers were assuming Summers comes in, the Fed tapers, and it's bad for the markets. This caused them to short many companies, so today's upswing is essentially short covering.


    I love it when the hedgies get it wrong. However this is not a good day to buy into the market. I'm sure we will see some future down days. Short term, take advantage of market pull backs.
    16 Sep 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Short covering? That makes some sense out of this upswing right before the Fed meeting.... Still means they aren't expecting much if any taper tomorrow, with it's matching downturn. I'd guess their shorting was over a longer time than a few weeks reaction.
    16 Sep 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Here are 2 SA articles that are very good reads. Buy quality companies, with growing dividends, re-invest the dividends and hold for the very long term. Forget about worrying about the stock market short term. Keep putting money to work. The power of compounding is a beautiful thing.


    16 Sep 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • The main problem for most investors is that they can't see the forest because they focus on the individual trees. That's like paying too much attention to how the market does day to day instead of 20, 30 years and longer. You are free to invest your money however you want to. But if you read the 2 articles above, think about what they are saying, then you will become a much better long term investor.


    Years ago, I didn't think I could be a good stock picker. Instead, bond funds & mutual funds were what I put retirement $ and any other extra $ we had into. Then I thought I was really smart by buying individual bonds. And I fully intended to hold them until they matured. Wow was that not a good idea, when you see what just $10,000 invested in (XOM) over 20 years did (2nd article above). You have to love these great companies mentioned in the articles above. They will provide for your retirement and allow your children or beneficiaries to toast you after you're long gone.


    I didn't have Seeking Alpha to influence me until just recently. About January of this year. Since then, my investment style has drastically changed. Now I'm a believer in great companies with growing dividends. Does anyone think we will see market corrections in the future? Of course we will. Those are the great buying opportunities. If you reinvest dividends, you will really benefit from market dips.


    Does anyone doubt that our economy and our markets will keep going higher? Look where we have been, 2 word wars & countless other market worriers (Viet Nam, 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan/Syria etc.). And yet, the market just keeps on going up.


    Believe it, don't worry so much & keep on looking for those great companies that offer a good price to buy right now. And growing dividends so that you can compound your earnings.
    16 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • I was looking at today's market action and saw MSFT was down even as the market was up strongly because of strong competition in "cloud computing". I decided to do a search for "cloud computing" and saw that Earth Link was a player now. If you want to see a crazy chart with some real steep declines, look at this.


    They are operating at a loss, but they still have $1.6 bln in assets, most of it liquid (net assets $125 million). It looks like they are transitioning into new IT/web services. Anyone ever looked at (ELNK)?
    16 Sep 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • John, that doesn't sound like a company that meets any of the criteria I would use to determine if it's a quality company with at least 10 years of dividend growth. Good luck with it if you decide to invest in it.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Thoughts on Obama's speech today?


    First thought - he's coming to the media & public, to pressure his opposition in Congress to do what he wants? I can't remember any president before using media & public this way so often, on items not typically needing direct public input. Have I been missing this stuff for years (it's possible)?
    18 Sep 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • I think I didn't listen to it. ;)
    18 Sep 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • why can't I like a comment more than once??? Darn!
    19 Sep 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » What I have stated many times. NO TAPER !!!


    No way they can take the morphine away from this market. Any one notice what the markets did right after the announcement?


    But we are hitting on all cylinders and the FED has no impact on the market huh?
    18 Sep 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Funny IT, of course no taper.
    Of course this QE has had no effect on the markets, stocks are just rising cause of fundamentals and cause everything is so much better.
    Hmm, wonder what would have happened if they announced a total withdrawal of QE. A hole would open and swallow the market up.
    Looks like more party time for stocks, at least until the budget talks get going in a few weeks.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TAMPAT


    Investors are dancing with the devil, some just don't get it .


    Boy I am not looking forward to the day of reckoning, and eventually it will come. But the casino lives on !!!


    Something fundamentally is really really wrong imo.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Unbelievable. Market priced in a small taper, and they still couldn't do it. It's killing the economy, at least the normal, small-person economy, not the big-firm money making. All those normal people living with ZIRP.


    One assessment that holds water - they didn't like how fast / high interest rates went this summer.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ben is stumbling on his words right now !


    It is way deeper then just interest rates...


    HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM is more like it >>>
    18 Sep 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think they can afford to taper until the debt-ceiling limit bs plays out. There was a pretty good market freak out the last time this came up in 2011 and there was a mild freak out over the austerity stuff last year.


    One thing I don't see going anywhere for awhile is ZIRP. Gubment's got to be able to make the interest payments on the debt at least. Won't be good if they can't and the Fed can't keep down interest rates...
    18 Sep 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Does anyone still wonder why some of us like to own some physical metals?


    The FED is checkmated !!
    18 Sep 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • @IT Of course it is... and the equity rally is not fundamentally-driven.


    Where's F&G?
    18 Sep 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I might add ....


    Folks go look back and did anyone else notice that gold started to spike PRIOR to the announcement?


    Someone had the word early !! Humm.....
    18 Sep 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • @IT I saw that and between that and the 3 tap failure to break $1295 I actually put a trade on today... bought a few OTM SLW calls at 1:55pm and tripled my money. Hey, $10 is $10 right?


    I had been 75% convinced there would be no taper... bond yields were simply too high to allow for that to happen without the banks imploding.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Also, I'd bet the rally the last few weeks.... included some inside knowledge by bigger boys.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The more the FED delays the closer we get to the next POTUS election year. Think they will taper that year?


    They are stuck and they know it ! Now maybe others will see the bigger picture. We are having a morphine induced casino . Sure people are making paper money right now but it will eventually end imo.


    Fundamentals aren't good or they would have started to taper. The game is slipping away from them!!
    18 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • @IT They will never taper from here and if they try again to jawbone the markets a lot fewer people will listen to them. Their communications policy is now in shambles.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TOM


    Gotta admit I also said no tapering but still had my doubts that maybe I was wrong and did not understand the economy as well as I thought I did.


    Ben just made me feel like a genius and quite frankly he is looking more foolish by the minute ! To think people want him to have a third term. He isn't that stupid as he is running away as fast as he can !!


    I wish I had a buck for every "UMM" he muttered during the Q&A today. But I guess it is easy to look the other way while fast money is made.. I just don't like musical chairs to be honest>>>


    People playing our challenge have to realize this. In fact I got a message from one player who said he was out all day and asked , WHAT HAPPENED ???
    18 Sep 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • @IT Bernanke finally looks like a man who has come to the full realization of the depths of his problem. Today's non-event was foreshadowed by his 'confused' comment about rising interest rates back in June. That he didn't understand that emerging markets would not dump USTs to defend their currencies is pretty scary.


    But, once they committed to that communications strategy they had to play it all the way to the end. We've been saying the Fed was bluffing on ending QE. They've been bluffing about it since December when it began.


    Today is vindication for all of us that called 'BS' on the Fed's machinations in which they proceeded to truly empty their clips (the LBMA and COMEX vaults) in the process.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TOM


    I might be feeling good right now about me being right about QE'S not ending. But should I really be happy or worried about the future and what lies ahead?


    The easy money will end one day and I am afraid the HARD times will last way longer then anyone realizes. Most won't understand as they jump up and down right now looking at their portfolio. But that can change in a heartbeat.


    Never forget 2008/9 folks!!
    18 Sep 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • @IT Of course not. We hope for rationality to take over and prepare for it to not occur.


    At the end of the day you tried to warn people to protect themselves. That's all you can do. The more you reach the better everyone will be when the time comes.
    19 Sep 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Well you sure can make some short term profits in the gold action. Anybody think it's time to buy (DUST) after today's $56 rise in gold?? The Dr. came back big today. Wonder if he will take some profits.
    18 Sep 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Imagine that the shorts are having a really bad day!!
    18 Sep 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    gold ROSE about $7 bucks at the end of trading today in 17 seconds!!


    Talk about a short squeeze.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Someone asked what Fear&Greed's is thinking about the no-taper. He's posted it in an instablog:;source=tracking_notif...
    18 Sep 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • So are we to accept that the earlier comments that caused the market crash in June about tapering were a trial balloon? Now that the market priced in a correction that didn't happen, we are off to the races since 2:01 pm yesterday. We could have all made even more money if we could have figured out the "Fed Fake." Gold was on fire yesterday. Watching today to see if the Dr. continues to outperform today.


    The emerging markets were even "happier" about the no taper yesterday. Some were up 4 %, but all were up....Brazil, India, etc.
    The no taper caper helped their currencies too. Maybe now the Indians will buy more gold, because the Rupee just got stronger.


    Question: will the cheaper dollar help sell more US products overseas? Since we don't manufacture that much here, our US corporations benefit but the American worker doesn't.


    Once again, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • What happened yesterday is a lesson for all of us. Trying to figure out what the Fed will do/won't do is a dangerous game. Just when you think you know, bam! the opposite occurs.


    As many have stated, the scarier part is that Ben doesn't think our economy is strong enough yet. There is a lot of disagreement amongst the Fed members. So maybe when Ben is finally gone, the right thing will be done & we will taper. I wish they had yesterday, as we already had priced it in. Even a $5 billion taper would have been better than nothing. Now the so-called experts on Wall St. are yammering that our economy is in shambles, etc. It's better not to listen to any of the noise, as F&G says. Steady as she goes, keep on sailing. We will get through this.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • @BS


    I lost out big time on gain by not being in the market for all of this, last few months.


    The bull will run, but choppy with politics and nervousness waiting for the Fed shift... and the economy to catch up the latest stock price hikes.


    Two weeks from now are the release of Fed meeting notes. Wonder what the market reaction will be? At this point there's so much disappointment at the taper NOT beginning (even some shift to how it's in the way of the recovery). Maybe that will be come a market mover - the disappointment? For sure, the Fed will make sure the market doesn't move down by much or crash -- or will try to -- by coming out with announcements. At this point will anyone care about their announcements? They said they looked at the numbers, so now so will everyone else very closely.


    Sailing steady... it all means it will take longer and the market will keep up for a while longer. Heck, maybe by then the economy will be good enough that the Fed won't matter. (Longer term payback on the economy & debit for all of this stimulus -- is later on.) So enjoy...
    19 Sep 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • The Fed cannot and will not taper. The talk of taper is to try and manage the markets rise, to slow it down, to try and prevent a bubble growing market collapse. It will work for a while longer, but the bubble will form, actually is forming now and it will collapse, yet again, like 2008. This is as certain as the sun coming up, the only thing unknown is when it happens. However, the higher it goes, the further it will fall.


    Consider allowing interest rates to rise and how that will increase the interest needed to pay on the $16 trillion+ and rising daily debt. They will pull out all the stops to contain interest rates.


    More taper talk will be spouted in the coming months, but it is just talk. There will be no taper, and dont be surprised if at some point the QE is increased further.


    The economy is not even close to a point of being self-sustaining.
    We are cruisin' for a brusin' and its not gunna be pretty.


    Enjoy the ride up as it should continue if the idiots in DC don't derail it with the debt limit disagreements. But the ride down will be puke worthy.


    The Fed didn't see the last 2 bubble/collapses coming and it wont see the next one either.
    19 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • @tampat This is what we've all been saying for years. We just keep having to say it to new people who think they know better. It gets tiring, especially when some (F&G) feel entitled to your time and attention.
    19 Sep 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • I know Tom, but those who think they know better wont listen anyway.
    That guy is a waste of time and best ignored. He is misreading whats happening or chooses to ignore it.
    19 Sep 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • @Tom


    It gets tiring to try defend a strategy that is working since the end of the last bear in 2009. The past five years have been terrific for the stock markets and what do we hear all the time? You guys investing in stocks (non mining) are wrong. Sorry, but it is quite obvious that some gold bugs get it wrong. Why gold is not going to the moon? You have QE on your side after all. It's like a broken record that plays the same tune again and again. Nobody noticed the recent data from Europe, Japan and even China?


    Gold is a tradable asset not a religion. And that asset class is at the same price it was in September 2010. We are in 2013. To me, it is a clear sign something does not go well for your favorite precious metal.


    To conclude on Fear&Greed, he is way more talented that the gloom and doom majority on this site. But isn't how it is supposed to work? The majority get it wrong while the minority makes money. That's how markets work.




    23 Sep 2013, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • A problem?


    A simple chart:

    19 Sep 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @Folks


    Read a your own risk and interpret it as it suits you !!!

    19 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ha, I had just read that article and now see your link.
    Some good points there.
    19 Sep 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @tampat


    I personally believe that the FED does know a bubble is brewing and KNOW they are helpless. Hence the rumors to try and calm down the markets.


    Right now people have a paper gain and one day, I do not know when, that will reverse and badly. Sure, everyone can laugh at me now, But I do sleep better at night knowing what I have accumulated over the years will just do fine by me.


    Get rich quick schemes are like Ponzi schemes, the end badly! I sit back and ask myself why would the FED mislead us ? I think I know why..


    My 2 cents !
    19 Sep 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Isn't it funny how Syria, NSA, Bengazi, etc have now kinda found the back pages.


    It always happens as time goes by so does the important issues. BEN just passed this mess onto the next Chairperson and the markets know it.


    Just look at gold and silver !! Maybe all those speculators that had the price drop lower are getting caught with their pants down. In hindsight I KNOW the banks are now net long on gold so I should have bought (NUGT) yesterday. I did not as I am trying a different approach and am learning along the way.


    But I wish others would comment on what occurred because others would like to hear opinions...


    Any thoughts on BEN'S non action?
    19 Sep 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • @ IT


    The radio news on my ride home today was all about Bengazi, with some Syria. So it's not back pages at all. (Main stream well known news outlet.) Syria, US is pushing for the diplomatic deal... so investing-wise, that's not an issue any longer (in my conclusion).
    19 Sep 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    Who said anything about it being investment news? BTW Diplomatic deals was an excuse for the POTUS not having enough votes to bomb anyway!


    So already chatter is starting that Dec they will taper. Are sheeple really this stupid?
    19 Sep 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT




    The news was just regular old quick summary stuff on several major news stations (one run by one of the big name metropolitan newspapers.)


    My Syrian comment was a different topic. And my point was about it -in relationship to investing- and not about anything else, purposely, That's what I meant by "investment-wise".
    19 Sep 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • @Tampat


    How / what are you using to time getting out before the ride down?


    Did the prior bubbles start forming several years before they popped? (That's the best of my recollection - which is hazy.)
    19 Sep 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Watching for a catalyst.
    Markets wont fall far for no reason, something will spark it, remember Lehman bankruptcy.


    Could be a variety of things.
    If the Fed loses control of interest rates and they continue rising despite Fed attempts to keep them down it would be a red flag.
    So is margin interest continuing to rise.
    If China/Japan continue to buy less and less UST's that will be a big problem.
    Then there is the stupidity of events that come out of DC.
    These are things we can identify.


    There is also the risk of those things no one can see coming, cyber attacks that effect infrastructure is likely a big concern of govt. Think about it, you'll be able to come up with more on your own.
    19 Sep 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • @ Tampat


    Thanks for the thoughts!! You're definitely seeing some signals, that are early warnings compared to what I was picturing.


    I know you'd been in the market to take advantage of the bull, even though your long term outlook is so much more concerned.


    So are you now expecting a catalyst (if big enough) to trigger the downturn soon? Or are you still thinking more bull & liquidity to get back in & Fed attempts (if their words still have meaning) available for a little while before a catalyst can take the winds out of this bubble.
    19 Sep 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • I dont know when whatever will occur, no one does.
    Next month, next year, 2015?


    I think there will be more bull (pun intended). Lots of bulls*-t.


    Market technicals seem toppy and should have some sort of pullback even if modest, but it just keeps going like an Eveready bunny. Seems a 3-5% pullback gets bought quickly to push it back up. I think it will continue until there is a catalyst to stop it. The debt limit negotiations could create a decent set back, but cant really count on that.


    As long as QE stays rampant it should go up. Until investors realize just how badly the economy is doing, or even start caring about that, it should go up.


    As long as bad economic news is treated as good news because it means QE continuing, stocks should go up. And good economic news seems to push it up as it signals economic improvement.
    So really, its a dysfunctional market that is so manipulated and fraught with malinvestment that it is very difficult to analyze.


    The catalyst could be soon, or not soon.
    19 Sep 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • "more bull (pun intended)" - LOL. That about sums it up.


    " so manipulated and fraught with malinvestment that it is very difficult to analyze. ...The catalyst could be soon, or not soon."


    Thanks for the thoughts! That summary makes a lot of sense... much as it's crazy-making.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    I already got off this bus a year ago. I may be wrong but I rather be a year too early then a day too late!!


    Ben's actions the last 2 months confirmed to me they are inept right now. Trying anything including misleading people doesn't sit well with me..


    Watch where gold heads over the next 2 weeks and you might have the real answer..


    My 2 cents !
    19 Sep 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe we were better off centuries ago when all we had to worry about was the price of tulips


    So what we do everyday drives the economy. We go to work to pay for food, housing, clothes, etc. Most of the GDP is what we all do every day, drive our cars, take the kids to school, shop at the grocery store, etc. Believe it or not, that is over 70% of the economy.


    So how is anything we are doing today or tomorrow any different from yesterday? Ah that's the kicker. It is our own perceived fear of the future that drives the economy. If we are fearful, we spend less of our hard earned cash. If we are feeling good, we might buy a bottle of champagne or go out to a nice restaurant. Jobs are plentiful when we all feel good.


    After all that we've been through since 2008, guess who has more $. That's right, the wealthy. The middle class & poor are the ones getting the sh*t kicked out of them. And they are the ones least likely to even be invested in the stock market.


    What can you do? Best thing to do is be diversified more than ever. Have cash stashed in several banks, not all in one. Pay off everything - no debt. If you are in the market, take some off the top. Keep cash in case we do crash 20%. Then you can make out like a bandit, like some smart people did in 2009. Have a mix of real estate, stocks, bonds if you like them, and maybe some metals.


    Come what may, we will weather it. After all, we made it through the last one. What more can we do? Just don't buy into the market on days like yesterday.
    19 Sep 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Good advice at the end there BSF.


    Just to nitpik a little, I dont view a 20% drop as a crash. An orderly 20% drop, that would be a buying oppty, and a good one.


    I view a crash as like 2009, 50% down with wild and crazy volatility, bankruptcies, bank failures, when Wall St feels the fear, etc.


    Your 4th paragraph touches on a big part of the problem.
    No jobs = no economic growth. This will eventually be reflected in corp financial results. They can only buy back stocks to boost P/E's and reduce the workforce for so long.


    Of course there have always been problems to deal with, but we are really stuck in a rut now and have such a disfunctional govt that spends more time trying to see to it that the president fails or looks bad rather than work to improve things.


    The Citizens Untited (what a misnomer) was a horrible event allowing big business to gain even more control over politicians that they already controlled prior to. Until or unless big money is removed from support of politicians these issues will get worse and the gap between rich/poor will continue to widen.


    There needs to be some rather drastic changes that likely wont happen until it is forced. I think it was Churchill who said something along the lines of, Americans always do the right thing, after they have tried everything else.


    I actually think there can be a very bright future for the US after it comes through this dark period, if we make it through. The technology changes will be mind altering but I'm not sure society is evolving fast enough emotionally/intellectu... to be able to deal with it very well.


    There must be significant political change and it must start with the people demanding it either peacefully or violently because the politicians likely wont do it unless forced.


    Theres a lot of issues in play so its difficult to identify specific triggers and such.
    19 Sep 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Agree with what you are saying Tampat. The problem I have is what can I do to make sure we get thru whatever is coming down the pike. I think it's a mistake to cash out of the market completely.


    But what to invest in while we are waiting for things to get better? For some lucky bastards, they have never done better than right now. The rich really are soaking it up, and I'm glad for them, but then I see the down & out not having such an easy time. You're right, Occupy Wall St. or something has to get going if anything is going to change. We need our corporations to move back here & manufacture stuff so people have better jobs. Does Apple make anything in the US?? It burns me that they make all their products in China, then keep the $ out of the US so they don't have to pay taxes & yet, the company was founded in SF.


    On the flip side, countries where our corporations have moved their manufacturing are doing better. I've been to India, they have done a lot better in the last 30 years because of that. Talk about down & out, India had been down for a very long time. People who think they are poor here have no idea! It used to be that the population in Mumbai (Bombay) sleeping on the streets was greater than the ones sleeping in a bed. I saw that, back in the 1980s. Shocking. Everywhere I went, there was a crowd of beggars around me. The first time I went to India, after coming back to the US I had major depression. Last time I went in 2005, it was like a different country. A police officer actually shooed the one beggar that approached me away. China has it a lot better than India, at least the parts of China I saw in 2003. So there you have it, our bottom tier has done worse while people in these poor countries have done better (some places, certainly not all).


    Maybe if the gov't would lower taxes on corporations & reward them when they move jobs to the US, that would help. It is frustrating to see our tax code actually hurting investment. Just like having too many forms to fill out & other restrictions causes companies to decide to locate elsewhere.


    For young people today, they really don't know how far we have come as a country. My parents filled me in on what it was like back in the 1930s. They had pictures too. My mom's family (her parents came to the US in the early 1900s from Switzerland) didn't have indoor plumbing until after WWII. That was in Iowa. I can't even imagine what it must have been like using the outhouse in those winters.


    So maybe things aren't so bad after all. This is why I do have faith in our ability to get thru the hard times. If you are willing to work hard, things will get better. I guess I'm an optimistic at heart.
    19 Sep 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    This is meant as a compliment as many posts are taken wrong. You work real hard at saving and investing and it shows. But I have received a few PM'S stating that you are in A DIFFERENT financial place then many.


    Most would love to at least have 2 years worth of savings put aside for retirement. Then some have read that you lost about a million but made most of that back already. I honestly applaud you for that hard work but please understand the average Joe is no where near that figure.


    The reason I am pointing this out is some are scared. Plain and simple and can't risk losing what they have left. I fully understand staying somewhat in the market. But I am sure you realize that if some who lurk here had 2 years in cash saved many have nothing left besides that. So what do they do?


    I hope you take this the way I intended to point out what I could have avoided saying. Plus I believe your advice for those in their 30's might be great. But what about those in their 50's who aren't as fortunate. They would like to know what you would do if you only had 150k left ??


    One owns his home but no retirement money or savings above the 150k. Can you give that person a plan that you believe in??


    19 Sep 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • IT, I'm 55 soon to be 56, so maybe that puts me in a different place. I'm actually shocked myself that my investment results have been what they have been, believe me. Back in 2007, we rolled over my husband's 401k into an IRA. I was horrified to find out he only had about $450,000. This was after working for over 20 years, with a very good salary at one of the top companies in the world for research. We decided to cash out his pension, as who knew if the company would even exist by the time he would need that pension. So that was an additional $200,000. Since 2008 I have turned this into $1,035,000 today. It took a lot of effort, maybe I could have done better....and understand that in 2009, the account that was roughly $700,000 fell to about $500,000. It was scary to see it go down, but everyone had the same situation back then. Why didn't it fall more? Because it was a mix of bonds & mutual funds. The bonds never lost value & continued to earn interest. The one thing I did not do is sell anything. My husband was panicked, but I told him no way, we really would lose it if we sold.


    We continued to save and both of us had SEP accounts, self employment retirement accounts. My husband started doing consulting work, and I was a realtor. We kept adding to the retirement portfolio, and that helped get to over a million. Our SEP accounts and IRAs now total $1,185,000. About that 2 years of cash, for living expenses. I've done very well with my non retirement investing too, even though we had to use some money over the last 3 years for living expenses. That account totals $370,000 today. It's not all cash, but I worry about losing money we need to pay bills so call me crazy but over $100,000 of it is always kept in cash. We are still earning income, doing a little better this year than the previous 2 years.


    The biggest mistake I made in hindsight was not investing in stocks earlier. For a lot of those years, I had invested in individual bonds and mutual funds. They did do well, but if I had been buying stocks earlier, we would have attained even better results. Just look at (SBUX) (DNKN) (MCK) (JNJ) (PG) (LMT) and some of the other stocks listed on my profile. All of them were a lot cheaper even just last year. Over the years, I did buy stocks in the investment account but not the retirement accounts. Reading authors like Chuck Carnevale, Dave Crosetti, and others here at SA has made me a much better stock picker. Just this past spring, I sold all the bonds and mutual funds in order to convert to a dividend growth investment portfolio. You have to be careful constructing a stock portfolio, please read the authors I've mentioned - Chowder, Crosetti, Carnevale, Fish (check the authors I follow for more) carefully before you buy DGI stocks. Or any stocks. These guys really know what they are talking about. The key is buying a stock at good value. This means when they are cheap. Just recently, Carnevale & Crosetti have written about how to do this. Please read their articles.


    So here is how we lost a lot of money, going back to 2001 and the "dot busted" days. My husband had half of his 401k in company stock. On top of that (without me knowing) he was buying stock every month in the company's stock buying program for employees. We also had bought some really bad stocks that tanked. Remember WorldCom? Global Crossing? at least $50,000 was lost with those bad stocks & others. So I estimate we had at one time close to $400,000 worth of Lucent stock, plus the $50,000 of other bad stocks, and then there were the 401k losses. I've never had the courage to figure out exactly how much he lost, but I do remember seeing a statement with over $800,000 on it back in the late 90s. Remember that was around $450,000 by the time it got rolled over. Who knows how much it went to before it tanked. So that's where I get the roughly million dollar in losses.


    Lesson learned....never invest in your company's stock. We still might have come out okay, if we had sold the Lucent stock at even $40. He never sold it from the 401k until the rollover. By the time we sold the stock from the employee stock buying plan, it was worth less than $40,000. I'm only writing this post for one reason - learn from our mistakes! And never give up. I went back to work as a realtor & managed to do very well.


    Also, never depend on stock options. We will never know what could have been from those. Most of them expired worthless. He had thousands of stock options from his company. Problem was, the price of the stock was lower than the option price by the time they vested, so they were worthless.


    Everybody loses some money in the stock market. You just hope that at some point, you make more than you lose. It takes time to become a good investor, so the younger you start the better. Some of the authors, like Dave Crosetti & Chowder have done way better than me! Check them out.


    To answer your question about what to do now. If somebody is really concerned about losing money, then maybe cash out. In all my accounts, I like to keep some cash (10% or more) to use when there is a market pull back.


    If you are handy, try buying real estate that you can fix up and rent out. That might be a good source of income in retirement. If you are a stay at home mom, baby sit other kids to make extra income. I don't have a house keeper. I trim the trees, bushes & treat the yard myself with Scott's lawn supplies.


    My goal is to have the retirement accounts generate 4% per year in dividends. Right now the stocks (listed on my profile) are getting about $35,000 in dividends and interest per year.


    The non retirement account has done very well for me so far this year. I have it in cash, and (PTY). Now here is where you should be careful, as it's not easy to get the results I'm getting with (NUGT) and (DUST). So far, I've made over $27,000 since August buying & selling them. Thanks to Dr. K for teaching us how to make money off of gold.


    My dad was a really good investor. He used to say "it's not how much money you make. It's what you do with it." Do you really need fancy clothes, expensive cars, expensive vacations, a huge house? No you don't. You can save money by not eating out, watching free movies at home, buy what's on sale every week at the grocery store, use coupons, walk, ride a bike, and yes I really do mean that. Plan your trips so you don't waste gas. If you pick things up on the way home from work, you will save on gas & time.


    If you need furniture or other household items, try used furniture stores, auctions, even yard sales. Buy a family member's used car, not a new one. As soon as you drive off the lot, your brand new car is worth at least 20% less.


    Remember this too. Family and friends are the most important thing, not money. Help each other, always.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • I'm still thinking about what advice to give those who are in their 50s & worried about retirement. Hopefully, they are working & earning income. I would sit down with a pen & paper & write down what you are spending money on. Everything, including that coffee you buy on the way to work & how much you spend on lunch.


    Now figure out the things you can't do without. That would include utilities, your house payment or rent. How much you spend on food. These are your fixed costs. How could they be reduced? Plan your grocery shopping around what's on sale this week. Could you car pool to work, take the bus or walk? Turn the a/c off when you're not home. Turn down the heat when you're not home. Make coffee at home, make your lunch at home & take it to work. You will save at least $5 every work day. Hopefully more.


    List your variable costs. This is what you spend on eating out, clothes, entertainment etc. Try to cut these as much as possible. One trick I've used for years is to only buy black shoes, and to go into my closet to find "new" clothes. Plus only buy clothes when they are 70% off. Jan. & Aug. are the 2 best months of the year to shop for clothes. Only buy what you really need. Don't buy clothes that need to be dry cleaned.


    Never ever lease a car. Buy a good used car & drive it forever. Car pool, even when you grocery shop. Even better, live in an area where you can walk to everything. This is how my 88 year old mom is in such good health. She never learned to drive & lives in a small town. When I visit her, I borrow my brother's car. And I ride a bike all over town, or walk, it's great. I'm planning on retiring back to my home town. It's a cheap place to live and I still have friends and family there.


    Get movies at the library to watch for free. Cancel your cable & stream tv shows online. Just use a cell phone & get rid of your land line. Do you really need that smart phone or can you just have a basic cell phone? It's ridiculous what people spend just on cable tv, internet hook up, home phone & cell phone. If you decide not to have internet you can use the computer at the library for free.


    If you can, downsize now. Don't wait for retirement. Or can you rent out a spare bedroom? Take in a relative, but only if they can pay rent. Live closer to work so you don't have to commute as long.


    Seriously if I had to, I'd move in with my mom (hopefully she wouldn't charge too much rent!).


    If you work at it, you will be amazed at how much money you can save right now by spending less. My parents taught me how to spend as little money as possible. You might say I come from a long line of tight wads!


    Try watching Suze Ormon. After her show, there's an even better one about paying down debt and saving money. Forgot what it's called, great show.


    One of the best authors here at SA is Bob Wells. He is retired and has written a series of articles detailing how he invested his 401k rollover into a dividend growth investment portfolio. His portfolio earns over 4% in dividends, which nicely supplements his pension/social security income.


    If you haven't spent your working life saving, it's not too late. Just get started now. Pay off all your debt. Don't spend money. Trust me, you don't need anything. You can go for over a year without buying anything - clothes, shoes, etc. I don't go to movies. Never go to the mall. No designer nails. No new handbags, for at least a decade. No vacations, I only go to see my mom. This year, she came out to visit us. Go longer between hair cuts, and style it yourself.


    As a realtor, I helped lots of people that weren't good at budgets determine whether or not they should even be thinking about buying a home. Believe it or not, I told lots of them to keep renting, be frugal & save up more money. Some people are really better off renting, maybe a house with other roommates rather than trying to buy a home. Owning a home is expensive. You have to pay the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, maintain the yard and make repairs. Sometimes it really is cheaper to rent a small apartment. Or a room in a house, share the kitchen & baths, this is if you're single.


    When you do retire, look into housing run by the Catholic church or other low income housing. Some of my real estate clients had their parents living in beautiful housing run by the Catholic church.


    If you are working, that's great. Keep working as long as you can. If you move to another state, keep in mind you need to research healthcare, along with state income taxes & living expenses. Maybe better to retire close to family, and even move in with family or friends to lower expenses. Consider buying a multi family home, so you can live in one unit and rent out the others to pay your living expenses.


    There are so many ways to make extra money. Tutoring, house cleaning, personal shopper, bake cakes, baby sitting, house sitting, pet sitting/grooming. Can you keep working part time at your job or another job after you retire?


    If you do buy stocks, make sure you buy stocks that pay dividends. I like (PTY) but please be careful. Some of these high yielders have fallen recently. Like the REITs. Wait for the market to dip, it has gone up too much this year.


    Go into the market very slowly. Sometimes it's a good idea to just buy 10 shares at a time. Always re invest the dividends, that way you don't have to make another trade to invest that cash.


    Try to get free trades at your brokerage. Bank of America allows you to add in your checking/savings account to your Merrill Edge account, so you will qualify for free trades faster.


    Number one thing is, don't panic. If it bothers you, just stop watching the market news. Stick with cash if you are too worried to invest. I can't watch anything on politics - doctor's orders. Really bad for my blood pressure.


    Start with that paper & pen. Write down a detailed budget. Now write down a detailed plan, how you will spend less & save more. Write down your goals. What are things you enjoy, that enable you to relax with family & friends? Instead of going out, play cards and have a pot luck at home. Lean on your family & friends, pool resources.


    Sometimes it helps to work backwards. Figure out what you will have in retirement from social security, pension, dividend income.
    Now go over your budget. Keep trimming, with the goal to not spend it all - keep saving even in retirement.


    I've asked my mom how much she spends. She has her social security, and does take what she has to out of her IRA. Her IRA is less than $300,000. She's never taken out the principal, just dividends. The house if paid off, and her expenses are really low. She's living on less than $2,500 a month. That's about $30,000 a year. No car, so that does save a lot. She likes to donate to the church. Mom is 88, and she still does the bookkeeping for my brother's drugstore. In case you are wondering, Mom works for free. Going down to the store a few hours a week (she's very efficient) really is good for her. Everybody loves her & she loves helping out.


    If my mom can live on $30,000 a year, I know you can too. You just might have to move to a small town in a midwestern state. And you might even like it. ; )


    20 Sep 2013, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • BSF,


    Perhaps you should consider writing in your spare time, maybe make a little extra money publishing on SA :)


    That was all pretty interesting, you have done a good job and offered a lot of good tips. Can't disagree with any of them, you seem able to be very frugal which can be a good trait.


    I am curious though, getting back to IT's question, what would you do now if you had just $150k total in savings.
    Would you invest it in stocks?
    How much of it?
    Would you keep some out for an emergency fund?
    20 Sep 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Thats a tough decision.
    If someone in their 50's is reasonably comfortable that they will be able to work another 10-15 years and have income, I might suggest investing it or maybe some part of it. A lot depends on a persons risk tolerance. If someone just can't stand to see the value decline then stay out of stocks and forget about them.


    Over 10-15 years there will be dips and likely a big one or two.
    Its also possible they could increase that $150k by 1/3 to 1/2 or even double it.
    Consider that $150k x 4% (dividends) is $6k per year x 15 years is $90k.
    If they average an additional 4% in price gains thats another $6000 per year x 15 years is $90k. So it is possible to more than double that $150k in 15 years.
    But one should count on some wild swings over that time period that may be emotionally difficult.


    Of course its also possible the next crash does not rebound as well as the last one, or the next crash occurs when they are 60+ reducing the time needed to recover from that. So its a gamble either way.


    If the $150k is a total amount, of course some of that needs to be set aside and held in cash as an emergency fund with 6 months of living expenses, leaving perhaps $100k to invest.


    Its all about risk tolerance. Some people just aren't emotionally cut out to be in stocks as the fear of loss is just to great.


    I still am about 50% invested in my IRA and would invest more in a 10-20% pullback that did not appear to be a crash.


    My wifes IRA is about 80% in cash and would also invest more if a pullback occurred but we will probably not exceed 30-40% in her acct. What I mean is, her acct will likely stay 60-70% cash.


    My thinking is this.
    Lets assume one invests 50% of their savings.
    If the market pulls back 30%, your draw down is going to be around half of that, or 15%, since half of your money is in cash.
    Even if a 50% crash occurred, that would be 25% down for one who had 50% in cash.
    Though thats no fun, its not terminal. And if one added in or bought more at that time they could likely see better returns.


    Also, I don't consider my physical PM holdings as part of those numbers mentioned. I dont consider them to be investments as such, I think of them as more like an insurance expense that will always have some value.
    20 Sep 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Just talked to Mom about what she is living on as an 88 year old. I was way over on my estimates. She's getting $16,000 a year from social security, as a widow. Then she takes out $6,000 to $8,000 from her IRA every year. She hasn't taken any out so far this year. So let's call it $24,000 a year. On that, she pays taxes, pays nursing home insurance, that medicare plus plan (whatever it's called) and all her other bills. Plus she manages to save, she's got $30,000 in the bank.


    Mom lives in the same small ranch my Dad bought back in the 1960s. It's paid off, and we pay the property taxes and home insurance, about $3,000 a year.


    Small town, midwestern state with low living costs make it possible for her to live very well in retirement.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Back to that $150,000 and I believe IT said they have a house.


    Is the house paid for? How many in the family? The answers to these questions will impact what I would do.


    If the house is paid off, and it's too big might be a good idea to sell. Before you do that, figure out where you will go. If I had adult children with an extra room, I'd think about moving in with them and paying rent. If not, then how much do small apartments go for? Key thing is to figure out all this on paper, making a budget & a plan to enable you to save money every month.


    If the house has extra bedrooms, can you take in renters? I know someone that takes care of retirees. He has them living in a home with lots of bedrooms, and he has it sort of set up like assisted living. They pay him to take care of meals, etc. This man has done very well with this plan. I think he owns several homes & has employees helping him.


    Even though you retire, you could still have a business. Convenience store, ice cream/sandwich shop etc. Before you buy a business, try working in the kind you want to eventually own. Make sure you can do it (and like it) before getting into a potential disaster.


    There is an ice cream/lunch place about a block from my mom's house. It was for sale for years. I thought about buying it, and running it myself. Perhaps it's a good thing someone else bought it, but darn that looked like a good business to run. It was close to the schools, had great food.....that's one that got away from me.


    $150,000 should be treated very carefully. Only put it in things that make interest, and you don't lose the principal. Like Tampat says, keep half in cash. Your goal should be to add as much money to that $150,000 as possible every month. Cut all your expenses & live as cheap as possible.


    If that house has empty bedrooms, I would take in boarders. Of course, be careful with this plan. Only older women, retired that can afford to pay you room & board. If you belong to a church, that's a good place to network. Lots of honest (hopefully!) nice people.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Thanks for all the info.. The person lives with his wife. Both do not work presently due to health issues. They own a small 2 bedroom house and stated that neither are in good enough health to take care of anyone.


    The wife said she would never live with a stranger in the house anyway. They have cut cost to what they feel are the lowest they feel comfortable doing. Not sure how drastic nor would they say.


    But their point is they feel they cannot take the chance of losing it. Family helping out right now is out of the question because of pride I guess. They have just watched my 100k invested in (PSEC) LOSE money the first two days and said they could not stomach watching that happen to them.


    My best advice was to then stay out of the market, be frugal, and just don't expect much interest to help you. Sad, as they added that they are counting on their parents passing away one day to help them regroup financially.


    Some who really never invested in the markets due to jobs that did not have 401k's when they were working haven't given them the ups and downs of the markets for them to experience. I guess it is better for them to just stay in cash??


    Oh, and both had divorces in their lives prior as well that hurt the amount of what they saved. One was forced to sell their home at a bad time to just split a small profit, the other (male) bought his ex out of the home so he had to exhaust all of his savings to do that.


    So no mortgage, no kids in the house, just two people trying to be as cheap as they can be is the way they put it. They hold garage sales every year to raise money to boot.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • IT, so what are they living on? That is a scary situation. In cases like that, you have to look to your family & friends for help.


    I would not invest that $150,000. Keep it in the bank.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BSF


    Apparently they were in some sort of accident where they are living on a lawsuit settlement money and are in the process legally of being declared disabled.


    So that is why they asked what advice you have for them. I advised them to stay in cash until they are deemed legally disabled then maybe at that time take a small chance investing.


    Their response made sense. Why just invest say 50k? Is the risk worth it vs the small reward? That was a tough one to answer as I suggested something that pays a dividend and quite frankly gave them the link to our challenge to follow it.


    The wife actually got sick looking at the swings in the portfolios and said she doesn't think she could handle that .Now I think I am talking about people who did work hard their whole life but due to some unfortunate circumstances had the life savings wiped out until the settlement.


    I am reading between the lines and am assuming they might have also declared bankruptcy. But the hard part is that they cannot work full time and being they are trying to be declared legally disabled the lawyers said that they can't even try to work or they will lose. The kicker is that it can take up to 3 years to get an answer if they are denied the first time by the judge.


    The attorney stated that usually you are denied and then have to appeal. They were told the whole process could take up to at least 3 years. The settlement has nothing to do with their disability case.


    So I guess they are better off just staying in cash and cutting down on everything possible...They say they have. Thanks for the input .I am sure the person appreciates it.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • IT, that is so so sad. I wish I could help them, but it does look like the best advice is to stay in cash. And listen to their lawyer.


    Wish them all the best, hang in there in the meantime. This is the time when your family & friends have to help out.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT


    They can work $800 a month (used to be years ago), and not jeopardize anything. Especially if they try it and can show they had trouble. 2 years is the norm, but if the forms are filled out well, and depending on the reason for disability, it can take much less time.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Too many books. I have a headache now. :)
    20 Sep 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • lol sorry John, you can skip my posts because you already know what you're doing! ; )
    20 Sep 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    "They can work $800 a month (used to be years ago), and not jeopardize anything"


    Sorry, but you are wrong on both the timing and how a judge looks at a person who works in today's economy. I know for a fact.


    Have family who have a great lawyer so I am very familiar with what it takes. Times are much different. Do you know a judge will even look to see if you have a Facebook account? Yup. I know one judge that did !!


    Each County is different and stiffer on the results as well...
    20 Sep 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • OK BSF
    In the two comments above [at 12:47 AM and 3:02 Am (when do you sleep?) ], you already have enough material for an SA article.


    Take the material and do some planning & outlining with your anecdotes (your own experience), maybe add one or two witty analogies, a little research and supporting details, add a conclusion and you have an article.


    ---I take that back. After looking at both comments again (2:47 AM and 3:02 Am articles), I realize that they would be two individual articles:
    1. Based on 9/20 12:47 AM comment,
    "IT, I'm 55 soon to be 56" . . .
    TOPIC:,retirement savings: coming out of the 2008 crisis with paper losses, but turning them into gains with your investing style.


    2. Based on 09/20 3:02AM comment, ' I'm still thinking about what advice to give those who are in their 50s . . ."
    TOPIC: advice for those approaching retirement; how to cut expenses and save funds to invest & advice on how to get started investing.


    Don't tell me you don't have enough time because you are already spending the time doing the commenting here.


    I read a lot of SA articles. Many of them are really short and lame with not much to say. What you have to say would have more substance than many of these. I don't mean to pick on this guy; I'm sure he is a nice sincere person and I like him, but read this short article to see what I mean:


    Can you do better than this?


    In 2010 & 2011 as I was finishing an AA in Accounting, I had to take English Comp I & II & Speech (about 9 sem hrs) to graduate. I really got into the writing. I was 59 - 60 at the time. You have more to say when you have had experience.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JW


    We are very fortunate to have quite a few people here who will spend the time and actually try to help others. You are also one of them. This group might be shrinking in the amount of posters but this information is priceless.


    I am proud to read what most of you put down in your comments. I just wished some who chose to leave would have stayed because we would have had the best cast here on SA without a doubt.


    Thanks to all for all of this !!
    20 Sep 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ah forget John, he's out roasting something to eat tonight !! lol
    20 Sep 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Wow thanks for the encouragement JW! You & Tampat are talking me into it.


    Agree with you about having valid stuff to say after you've experienced it. And you know what? Back in my 20's I took lots of business courses. I knew it was stupid to invest in the company you work for. So what happened to my husband & was even worse, in that regard.


    One of the reasons I was up so late was checking on the price of gold! Every time I buy (NUGT) or (DUST) it drives me to distraction.


    After gold went up so much on Wed. I bought (DUST) just a few minutes before 4pm. Sold it all today. Too scared to hold it over the weekend.
    20 Sep 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Hey, I do not want to lose you as well. Don't listen to those guys !!!


    20 Sep 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • lol JW, that author has 2,000 articles??? Some of the comments were pretty good too. ; )
    20 Sep 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Aww IT, you know I'll never go, I enjoy our conversations here.


    But maybe I should write some of this stuff up. I'd love to make it as a real author. Just writing anecdotes about my family would be fun & fill a book.


    So the article JW listed is about an 80 + year old guy that still worked a back hoe in his retirement.


    Then a bunch of people commented about themselves or others who worked past 80.


    I've got them all beat!! My grandfather, the one who fought in WWI & started the drugstore over 100 years ago worked until 86. Or was it 82? Have to check with mom. At the time he retired, he was the oldest registered working pharmacist in the history of the great state of Iowa. I'm sure he still holds that record. Even tho he didn't fill prescriptions anymore, he went down to the store every day. I remember him dusting shelves, and washing his car in his 90s. Amazing guy.


    Now there's my mom. She's 88 and still does the bookkeeping at that drugstore. For no pay. Because she's helping my brother, and it gives her great satisfaction to contribute.


    Every time I go home to visit, I find lots of stuff to do for them. They are so busy running the drugstore, many things don't get done around the house. I always take my brother's car (the one he lets me borrow) to the car wash & thoroughly clean the inside.
    20 Sep 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You would make a great author here on SA and would start off with a bunch of comments from us for sure !
    20 Sep 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT


    I would expect a judge to look for facebook & other online accounts. I've known of one who hung out ahead of time, to overheard applicants chatting as they waited.


    Yes, you can work in a limited amount. I know that for a fact. I can't remember current $ amounts, but that you can work is info from an excellent disability attorney friend. Each county & judge is different, which is why an excellent attorney in your own locale is so important.


    On timing - I know that very well and can give you specific examples of people I've known. It can be as short as 2 months, & no appeals. Thought 2 years is the norm.
    20 Sep 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • thank you IT appreciate your encouragement too
    20 Sep 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am repeating this post from the investment chapter because I think it is important !!


    ok I need some personal advice here.


    Today in our portfolio challenge I lost close to 10 cents per share in (PSEC). I BOUGHT it yesterday with the understanding from a rep at Schwab that when the stock goes ex dividend is when the price drops at the open to handle the dividend.


    Now today was the payout for that dividend yet the stock dropped almost the exact amount of that dividend. So is this a coincidence or is it expected to drop on the payout date??


    I am still in the learning stages and held off buying the shares until this rep said it was already accounted for. Had I waited until todays close I would have saved this loss. So being this is a learning challenge can some of you investors shed some light on this?


    I REALLY WOULD LIKE TO KNOW if I should have waited until today or is it really the ex dividend date ?? It will help me invest new monies in real life. I am confused if this was just a coincidence or something I should be aware of.


    THANKS IN ADVANCE as I am sure others do not know the answer to this . But some who invest in dividend stocks must have experienced this so I am leaning on you folks.


    Appreciate it as I am burning up inside ... lol I hate to make mistakes even in a game...But this would be great info if someone is willing to respond to this..
    19 Sep 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • What I checked says the ex divi date is 9/26/13.
    Yes, it should drop by roughly the amount of the divi.


    Perhaps you are confused about the ex div date and the payout date.
    19 Sep 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • BTW, looks to me like PSEC went up 5 cents today, or is your post from a different date.
    19 Sep 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Nope, I bought (PSEC) at yesterdays close @ $11.61. It closed down 9 cents today but was down most of the day around 11 cents !
    19 Sep 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @tampat


    No, I was going to buy it on the payout date from LAST MONTH. Which was today, then have it for the next ex dividend date of the 26th.


    But the rep said that last month on that ex date the stock should have corrected by that 11 cents, so is he right and today a coincidence.. PSEC pays out it's dividend a lot later then most monthly BDC'S...


    Take a look again..



    It was August's dividend that was paid out today !!
    19 Sep 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • I dont know, seems a dime isnt much to worry about either way. Thats just part of the normal ebb and flow of the daily movement.
    Looking back it appears it makes pretty small moves on some of those divi dates and bigger moves in between the dates.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Anyone have opinions on this SA author & his indicators? It looks good to me & he seems straightforward.
    Tony Roylance
    19 Sep 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • From Market Currents:
    "t's a quadruple witching day - index futures, index options, individual stock options and individual stock futures all expire on the same day - which could lead to higher volume."


    So we can possibly expect some oddball movements today...
    20 Sep 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Now Bullard has already started the chatter that in Oct. we might start to taper..


    How many times will they have to cry wolf before the sheeple stop believing this junk ???


    Simple, the cannot stop and the markets are giving some of those euphoric gains back today!
    20 Sep 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • The market was about to blast off, they need to talk it back down with threats of Octaper.
    Next they'll have Dectaper.
    They can probably cry wolf for a while longer.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @TAMPAT


    Funny , when the interviewer said the vote was one sided Bullard said well we have to vote to support the majority , however we were "this close" to start tapering !!


    I was rolling on the floor. Boy can they lie with such a straight face it is pathetic...


    But I found it really interesting the sell off today. I also do not think Bullards comments had much bearing. I THINK THE SMART ONES ARE TAKING THEIR PROFITS REAL QUICKLY !!


    Ben just said it doesn't look like it will happen this year then Bullard SAYS JUST THE OPPOSITE? I say Bullard is full of Bulls@it...


    It is clear that they do not want the markets hitting the stratosphere because we will have a hard ride down, but they are really testing people's intelligence right now.. It is scary to be honest .
    20 Sep 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • I had a weird trading day.


    I kept making mistakes own live version of who's on first.
    - typing in the wrong stock (NUGT) not ( & making $200;
    - not realizing I'd bought already. So then selling, thinking I was buying. (Mixing up the buttons.)
    - Then another round buying thinking I was selling
    - Then selling just to get rid of what I unexpectedly had.


    In the end, I made back all the big losses with ( & another quick trade from a couple months ago. $100 to spare. It's about .0025% of my total funds.... but it was a 16% loss on my ( trade, so it really bugged me. That had been part of my early attempts at trading which had gone well till then.


    So whoa, I'm back even.... but can't take credit. That's scary.


    I think I'm going to go out in the sun, and take it easy. See if my brain cells can unscramble themselves.


    You got into ( I thought about it, but didn't jump. What a climb up!
    20 Sep 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Curls, that has happened to me too, buying/selling when I thought I was doing the opposite. Today was bad, but next week.....time to batten down the hatches we are headed for stormy weather: DC budget battle looms!
    20 Sep 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • The () are (MUX) and (RAD)
    20 Sep 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • anyone reeling from the gold action the last couple of days??
    20 Sep 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • @ BSF


    Let me know the next time you're getting into NUGT / DUST. I gained a little (by accident), but I should have gotten in for a much longer ride. I need a little more foresight for that. You must have really made a bundle with (DUST) today. I'm not inclined to trust that when one goes up, the other will right after. I can't tell what the triggers are at all.


    Glad I'm not the only one who's gotten confused. But then I'd bought without knowing it at all. Other screens can be color changed in my setup, but these don't seem to be. It'd be VERY helpful! I normally don't make mistakes like this in anything, so it's baffling to deal with.
    20 Sep 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • OK Curls, you know I'm not a goldbug - but hey, if I can make some fast $ it's a good thing.


    Graphs/technical analysis? Too technical for me. Instead, I follow the price of gold & relate it to what's going on in the real world. You know you have to act fast. The first time I bought (NUGT) it was because gold had become oversold. Check out the graph for (NUGT) and (DUST) on You can also look at the price of gold (click on "gold" tab on the first page, right hand side).


    Back in August, gold had fallen under $1300. Dr. Ken had just bought it in the challenge the day before I dived in. As it went up in value, I did sell some (IT insisted - he & my brother thought it was dangerous to hold too long) after a couple of days. I can't remember when the Syria issue blew up, but that helped gold to go even higher. By the time I sold my last position, it was amazing. over $27,000 in profits.


    Remember this past Wed. what happened? The Fed announced no taper, and gold took off to the upside. To me, this was crazy. Why was gold going up when technically, gold is out of favor? So I bought (DUST) just a few minutes before 5 pm. Today it looked like a good time to cash out, just in case the budget battle coming up causes gold to go back up. Or over the weekend, the Syria situation could get tense again. This time my profit was $28,800.


    Taxes will take a bite, and believe me, this is not the way I like to invest. It really is too much like a casino. What if your trade goes bad? You have to watch the tv/computer screen every second, so that if you have to get out fast you can. Or put in limit orders, that would work too.


    My rule is to only do this trade once a month. It is very dangerous, you have to watch the gold comex to see the trend. Also, if people start bailing out, the price can change in seconds.


    It may be quite awhile before I feel brave enough to buy again. What is truly crazy, is if you had bought (NUGT) on Wed. morning, then sold out before 4 pm, big profits on that trade. Then switch into the (DUST) trade. If you can get a handle on it, what a way to make $. But again, extremely dangerous!
    20 Sep 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • @BSF


    I get what to do. I just haven't been thinking it through in advance. So that's why I'm asking -- when the idea strikes you (even if you're not going in) -- to post a comment. Might get me thinking...


    I don't know what was driving (NUGT) up on Wed. It didn't match anything I expected. Nor did I expect (DUST) up today & miners & gold down. You perceived accurately that it was an over run yesterday so a correction back today. Next week could swing the other way...! For quite a few days recently they've alternated up and down with each other all day. So the steady run in any direction, wasn't something I was automatically trusting.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Curls, Wed. the run up in gold was due to the Fed announcing no taper. This meant to the goldbugs that the economy is still sick & needs QE. Therefore, gold should be more valuable....but going up over $60 in one day was too much. So that's why I watched gold going up & bought (DUST) just before the market close Wed.


    Next week will be interesting.


    Long term, it's expected that gold will settle down, maybe to somewhere around $1000. This all depends on how the economy does, so while we are watching the bull/bear tug of war on the value of gold, there are opportunities to make $. It is dangerous, you really have to watch the price of gold as it trends. This is why I was checking in the middle of the night what gold was doing on So glad I sold on Friday!
    21 Sep 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • and by the way....I did post "is it time to buy (DUST)? on the blog. That was last Wed. on the portfolio blog.
    21 Sep 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • @BSF


    Thanks for the explanation of how the price is moving!! As I said, I'm not doing well at tracking it or paying attention well at all... I missed your posting :(. Maybe I saw it, but didn't register it. Congrats though on your gains from it! I hope to follow suit at least a little bit :).


    I thought there were some ETFs derived from Gold prices rather than from miners (nugt & dust). Wonder if they'd be better on some days in playing this speculation? I don't know what the ETFs were.
    21 Sep 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • thanks Curls, I will post next time the gold trade bug hits me ; )


    found what I posted here on this blog, back on Sept. 18.


    "Well you sure can make some short term profits in the gold action. Anybody think it's time to buy (DUST) after today's $56 rise in gold?? "


    Sometimes I'm shy about posting what I'm doing. Not every trade works out, plus I really don't want to cause anyone to lose $ ever.


    Besides, IT has enough reasons to make fun of me lol! I about died when he said JohnTN was busy roasting something the other day. IT has a great sense of humor ; )
    21 Sep 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • you're right, someone (Tampat?) posted those but I don't remember what they were either. (NUGT) and (DUST) are good enough for me.
    21 Sep 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • DGLD = gold 3x SHORT
    UGLD = gold 3x LONG


    If you think gold will go down, use DGLD (D as in down)


    If you think its going up, use UGLD (U as in up).
    21 Sep 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • @ BSF


    Not to worry about posting ideas. Everyone should be judging for themselves. My instincts have been decent, but I've been getting too skittish to follow them. I think I missed your posting that day. Sometimes SA doesn't seem to notify on every update... maybe that's why?


    In my mind, it's important to remember that even for the expert great traders, they're track records will include easily 40% loss trades. It's about having more wins than losses, not about winning every time. Also about cutting out deep loses by getting out & not trying to "get back to even" or "catch a falling knife" or "not miss a big opportunity, after it's popped up."
    21 Sep 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • IT- Regarding your questions about PSEC above ( I know I previously answered the ex-div question), but here is some further guidance.


    The ex-dividend date is the date when the buyer does not receive the most recent dividend which was 8/28 for PSEC. The price of stock opens lower by the amount of the dividend on that date.


    If you want to receive the most recent dividend, you have to be a shareholder of record on the day before the ex-dividend date.


    If you want to buy a stock discounted or cheaper by the amount of the dividend, you would do that on or after the ex-dividend date.


    BUT-If you look at the price action of a dividend stock, you will see that they sometimes drift lower for a period after it goes ex-div. They ex date doesn't guarantee the lowest price especially on a day when the Dow drops 185.


    For a dividend stock the things that may be larger factors than the dividend ex-date are:
    * Market action and market levels. Overbought or overextended?


    ** Price level of the stock. Where is it in its 52 week range? Has it already had a strong run? or is it at a low and a turnaround prospect?


    *** What is the dividend yield level? Is the dividend at a historically high or low yield for this particular stock? This is why I went into mREITS and Municipal bond funds at this time. Yields are historically way high and there is the prospect of a turnaround in these sectors (short to intermediate term).


    Looking at a 5yr chart of PSEC, there is an obvious pattern of it bottoming around 9 or 10 and topping at 11.50 to 12.00. I would say to wait (lie low in the grass) and buy at 9.50 ish and then hold it for its 12% dividend, and then sell when it gets up towards 12 again. Repeat cyclically. Its a recurring bottoming and topping pattern/range.
    20 Sep 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JW


    Thanks!! Appreciate it..
    20 Sep 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » HEY JBT


    It was cold up North here Sunday as well as today. My wife threw a roast in the oven that we bought on sale yesterday. What did you guys cook in the backyard? :)


    Your Packers looked good huh? (BSF) Giants looked reaaal good to us Jets fans as well..
    23 Sep 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Much like commodities (gold/silver, etc.), teams can go one way or another, sometimes with it making no sense at all. They did get pretty beaten up (injury-wise), and the bye comes at a good time.


    Last night was ribeyes, baked potatoes and imitation crab sticks. Was good. Tonight is left over pizza. :(
    23 Sep 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, I will bite.. What is an imitation crab cake??


    An English MUFFIN:)


    23 Sep 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • No. Louis Kemp imitation crab sticks. Mostly pollock, I think. Found in most grocery stores near or with the seafood. Very tasty, and resemble the taste of crab quite a bit. $2.50 for 8 sticks.
    23 Sep 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Not bad.. You like Sushi??


    I can eat that every day ,,,
    23 Sep 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK, Will Congress end up passing O'bamacare??


    One family said that their premium for 4 people in their family is jumping from $300 bucks to over $900 monthly !!


    I thought this was suppose to be affordable insurance??
    23 Sep 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • I've posted elsewhere & I'll add here, my thoughts on health care reform...


    'I've been saying for a long time, and I wish g'vt had considered...


    1. that the first step to health care reform should be detaching it from jobs. Make it illegal to provide health care as a job benefit. That would solve a good deal of the "can't get insurance" because of switched jobs, and pre-existing conditions while on prior jobs.


    2. Also make it easier to sell the product across many state lines so it's cost effective to be an insurer.


    2. Legislate some kind of limited time premium increase if you want to switch companies with the pre-existing.


    That would solve 95% (my guess) of people who need but can't get insurance. What's left are mostly low income people, for whom this isn't their only problem.


    All that said in a mere 3 concepts... so definitely simpler than the current solution with all it's weird twists.


    Anyone have other preferred adjustments?
    23 Sep 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CURLS


    Good points, we also have to consider that if rates do indeed jump this high the money has to come from somewhere, and then disposable income shrinks as well as consumer buying.


    It may take a while but it may effect companies bottom lines.. You will essentially have a ton of part time workers deciding if insurance is now a necessity !!
    23 Sep 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Markets seem to be in a holding pattern.


    Anyone have any guesses why besides the budget?
    24 Sep 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » What a shock !!!


    "Did some traders get "no taper" decision early?


    The Fed has contacted a number of news organizations to talk about news embargoes after unusual trading patterns were spotted around the surprise news of its non-taper last week, reports CNBC. Some traders in Chicago appeared to get the news ahead of others in town and placed hundreds of millions in bets on futures contracts just milliseconds ahead the shock announcement."


    Say it ain't so !!!!!!
    24 Sep 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Where did everyone go?


    No one has anything to say in days?


    Oh, I get it. Everyone is out helping the POTUS push his Obamacare issue or are helping Ben find a new job?


    OR >>>>>..Is everyone over at JBT'S for a roast of some kind?
    25 Sep 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • I was just thinking the same thing. I checked my SA feed for activity of people I follow. Nothing. It's so quiet, that it must mean that all buyers have already bought - buyers 100% invested? The quiet at the summit.


    Obama care is at the front of the news. Sign up starts Oct 1 for the "Marketplace" Then there will be the "shutdown" and the debt limit. I can never figure why Treasuries improve or go up when there is a debt ceiling crisis. Remember last time? But the last time we had the debt crisis and S&P downgraded US debt, there was the Eurozone banking and bond crisis with the Greece insolvency. We don't have that this time. We don't have Europeans fleeing to the dollar or T-bonds for safety to prop things up.


    I wonder what Fear& Greed would make of it? Maybe if he checks in he'll give his view. Any chance?
    25 Sep 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » He is always welcomed here, that's for sure!
    25 Sep 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • I suppose Obamacare and the debt-ceiling dates makes for as a good an excuse as any for funds to begin the year end selling early.
    25 Sep 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Actually it's the end of the world !! lol
    25 Sep 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • @U7


    There's a typical year end selling? Do tell. When is it typically, and why? Only year end I know of, is buy up due to Christmas sales earnings. But I don't know if I have that right. I vaguely remember Jan is normally good or bad, but I don't remember which. (Snowy I know. Good for ski slope companies.) There's likely also all that end of year selling, buying, readjusting for taxes.


    Anyone have a clue how reporting buys and sells works? I know there's different methods (fifo, etc.). Can anyone give a simple summary (so I don't have to wade through pages of broker fine print.)
    25 Sep 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • @Curls,


    There's often a lot of year end selling by different types of funds. Closed-end funds sell off some of their holdings to take capital losses (and so do those who invest in those funds). Mutual fund investors redeem shares for some of the same reasons and to "rebalance". Hedge funds I don't know as much about, but I understand they churn late in the year to dump losers and try to pick up winners.


    Last year most closed-end funds started selling off heavily at the end of Oct and the lowest point was about mid-Nov. The sequestration bs was commonly cited as the catalyst for all of that. Made for picking of some good deals at the time.
    26 Sep 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • @IT


    ''Markets seem to be in a holding pattern.


    Anyone have any guesses why besides the budget?''


    The market is consolidating.


    It is a good time to buy some turnaround story IMHO.


    Forget about the noise (the politicians' circus) and focus on what really counts; businesses that are profitable or at least at an inflexion point. (NYT) is one of them IMHO. (BONA) is very promising, (SB) is performing extremely well, (TST) could be ready to reward its shareholders and (FRBK) could be the next micro-cap regional bank success story. I have all of them in my portfolio.


    On the big cap side of things (AMZN) and (INTC) are my favorite. I have them as well.


    26 Sep 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • I'm waiting for the sell off before buying. Watching for Oct. as that's usually a volatile month. Last year, November was good if you were looking for bargains. December can be a great month, with the so-called "Santa Claus" rally. This year, January was insane, as the market took off & didn't look back until April? Or was it June? We've seen over 3,000 points added on to the DOW closed at 12,542 on Nov. 15 2012. Even pulling back to 15,328 after seeing 15,676 on Sep. 18 this rally has been impressive.


    Today it will sell off, jitters over the possible shut down in DC.


    Volatility is great for bargain picking!


    Watch's been all over the place last few days. Spiked up to 1336 so let's see where we settle at the end of the day.


    Curls, I'm waiting for gold to top off soon. Watching the developments in DC, then I'll buy dust when the fear is at it's height. We might go up over 1400 if the do nothings in DC keep at it.
    27 Sep 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • @ BSF


    Thanks for the heads up! Good idea. Of course that day, gold went down for no clear reason (according to CNBC).


    I'm seeing the market reactions timed to the economic data reports, not to the shut/slow down. Just an observation so far.


    I could use more volatility!! I have cash to invest. (Volatility apparently means "down" when it comes to markets, not "difference, change" like it does in real world definition.)
    2 Oct 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, any one wanna guess how the weeks going to go? Will Obama care get delayed?


    29 Sep 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like it's going to get ugly IT. Tomorrow we should see the markets going down much worse than today, if the gov't shutdown happens. At least there is a hope (small one!) that they still might come to an agreement by midnight tonight. So stay frosty, tomorrow is when we will really know (or at the stroke of midnight!)
    30 Sep 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Just hoping Obama care gets delayed. It is so confusing trying to get the correct information for my daughter.. Same company has 2 people quoting me different info.


    They just need more time to educate these people...


    But the POTUS just hinted about giving in some. So we shall see !
    30 Sep 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Hey IT, I'm still busy writing, but wrote an article for first time in awhile that I submitted to Seeking Alpha for approval. I purposefully left out GLD and SLV as places to invest. Their reply is below, but I just wanted to point out how they are hypocrites as Avi wrote an article that they did publish this weekend, with no mention of ANY "actionable advice" the editors wanted and approved I speculate because it was negative on silver manipulation talk.


    Check out the spelling errors (5 of them I think) in what they wrote me about my latest article (which I posted on my site): Gold and Silver Are Insurance Against $17 Trillion of National Debt and More Edit They are a joke.


    Here is my comment on Avi's article which also refutes his "there is no manipulation" claim.

    30 Sep 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • " Gold and Silver Are Insurance Against $17 Trillion of National Debt "


    The insurance against $17 Trillion of National debt? What are we doing with the $70+ Trillion of assets the US has (not even counting the Government assets)?
    1 Oct 2013, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman, how are we funding the $120 trillion of future obligations that are more than the entire net worth of the U.S. From productivity of a service economy? Really? Sure the government can sell our soul to China. Is this the kind of America you want? This is the consequence you are speculating when you make such a statement.


    Of course your only comeback is that our productivity (manufacturing and real estate boom) fueled by QE will stimulate and all will be well in America. I simply calculate the future differently than you.


    You don't sell insurance. You hold onto it, and I have clearly said dollar cost average into a position for one's allocation.


    I also said, "and more," if you would bother to read the article.
    1 Oct 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    What is your $120T of future liablities?


    Maybe you are including Medicare and Social that is $87T?


    Because they are PROJECTIONS over a 75-year period, so...


    The US selling his soul to China? LOL


    Do you even know how QE works?


    Talking about insurance, why not using calls and puts instead of the yellow metal?
    1 Oct 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty, do I mock your comments with "lol?" keep it professional if you want to discuss things with me.


    Regarding China, if you haven't notice, they make things we buy at Walmart and pretty much everywhere else, because of their cheap labor. You can thank all those on the Left who "sold our soul" because of GATT, NAFTA, WTO, etc. Why else do you think U.S. corporations have set up shop in those low cost labor countries? Do U.S. workers benefit from this? Maybe the low paid ones with no real education who work for the suppliers of these companies. This has been going on since John Naisbitt predicted it 25 years ago in his book Megatrends.


    The $120 trillion I get from here: LPL) are not allowed to offer them to their clients. In fact, most financial institutions don't allow these products because of fiduciary responsibility to risk factors of individuals government by the SEC. Doesn't mean you personally can't do them, and there are no guarantees. The tortoise (gold) will always prevail over the hare (fiat), throughout the history of mankind. But I don't need to bring up that aspect in my articles. I believe in asset allocation. Right now asset allocation says to take from what has gone up, and add to what has been beaten down; gold and silver.


    Anything else I can help you understand?


    Now, my turn in asking questions...


    When will the Congress decide to raise the debt ceiling? What will S&P do to the credit rating of the U.S.? Does it matter? Is there a difference between $10 trillion of debt and $20 trillion of debt? How much more interest will be paid with each 1% increase in rates on the debt? Has the CBO ever got a prediction right on predicting the future of our economy? If so, when? Where did you get 75 years for your projections for Social Security and Medicare? Are more or less people on food stamps? Are more or less people on disability? Why is Congress allowing the lower income people to buy homes again? Are homes still the American Dream they used to be? How will banks settle the $4 trillion plus subinvestment derivatives they have on the books that are coming due in the next 5 years? Cold there be any Black Swan event that might come from this where no counter-party is available to take the other side of the trade? Will the Fed with a balance sheet that is already filled with questionable assets be the "Buyer of Last Resort?" Again? How will the Fed maintain credibility? Is there a problem with Japan's economy? Is there a problem with Europe's economy? How will things pan out around the world if there is a crisis in Japan? How will the interconnected banks react?


    Things are not as simple moving forward with projections as one may think they are. BTW, these questions above were just off the top of my head. I can easily come up with many more.


    You may be able to hedge yourself perfectly. I would say that 99% of America doesn't have a clue how to. So some of them buy gold, just in case things don't work out as planned. Those are the people that I reach out to.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ah Doug, you are such a joker!


    What are you talking about regarding the $120T?? Be clear and specific please.


    I guess you've missed the latest data about China, Japan and Europe. But that's ok Doug, take some time tonight and have a good read, then we'll discuss.


    Sold our sould to China...whew! I'll give you the award for the most comical comment of the month! :-)


    I would suggest that you focus on questions that can benefit people in making money for their trading account. Asking silly questions like: when the Congress will decide to raise the debt ceiling or what is the difference between $10T and $20T do not impact our portfolio and does not help people in making profits on the get the point? These are absurd questions...and you are good at it.


    Where do I get the 75 year projections on Medicare and Social Security? Are you serious or are you trying to make a joke here??? In which country are you living man?


    Take your time, I am not in a hurry. lol ;-)
    1 Oct 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • I have no respect for you. Good luck with your trading.
    1 Oct 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • "I have no respect for you. Good luck with your trading"




    Take a breath, Doug. You know, the key is to know what you are talking about. Simple, isn't? :-)
    1 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Right, which is why you have "8" followers. I have a new rule. Don't talk to people in comment sections that don't have a bio or more than 100 followers. They are simply a waste of time until they have earned the right to discuss issues intelligently. Keep mocking Krusty. That will really get you places.
    1 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • ''Right, which is why you have "8" followers.''


    Here we go again...


    You've mentioned that a couple of times now. It seems really important to you. So I guess it means because I only follow 14 people all the other people on SA do not worth a read? Half of my comments have ''liked'' so it is not a big deal. And I do not trade markets to have followers on SA...I trade markets to make money. I have nothing to sell...but some people do, so followers are important to them. Correct, Doug? eheh


    Please continue to use your twisted logic at your own risk, pal.


    ''They are simply a waste of time until they have earned the right to discuss issues intelligently.''


    That's right, Doug. Like asking people silly questions like: when the Congress will decide to raise the debt ceiling? Or what is the difference between $10T and $20T? Are homes still the American Dream they used to be? That kind of intelligent questions, Doug? The kind of questions that cannot benefit people's portfolio in any way? You are the best for these issues! lol


    And then you add the following: ''BTW, these questions above were just off the top of my head. I can easily come up with many more.''


    No please, Doug, we have enough already! Please keep them for your next book. Your followers will be happy to pay for it.


    Looking forward to reading your next armageddon thesis! :-)
    1 Oct 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty, why do you waste time with asking my questions? Doesn't it take away from your trading success? Seriously, what is your purpose? If it is to try and refute what I say, you have failed miserably, and you don't answer any of my questions, so why would I bother having any further discussion with such an individual who hides behind a fictitious name that has no bio? Waste of my time you are.


    Problem is, you can't or won't answer any of my questions because you lose "control" of the conversation, which is all you are linguistically trying to do. I'm well aware of this tactic and will point out people like you who do this every time. Answer the questions. They are not "silly" like your comments in reply that mock.


    I mentioned asset allocation into a beaten down asset. Isn't that "helping people?" Do you know anything about Asset Allocation? Does not this "benefit people in making money?" Give me a break man.


    1 Oct 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok guys.. Timeout!!
    1 Oct 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty:
    $100 + trillion is a projection. We know the number is astronomically big, and we know the employment rate and participation rates are not increasing. Personal income is decreasing and the middle class is shrinking. In addition, there is no indication the economy is recovering; we could even see zero or negative GDP.


    I don't need a big number like $120 trillion of unfunded liabilities to see the handwriting on the wall. I can see it with "only" $17 trillion of actual debt that won't be repaid - as if that's a small number.


    $70 trillion in assets in the US you reference, are not relevant as those would be private and corporate assets not available to offset Government debt and liabilities. At least my assets are not.
    1 Oct 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • @John


    Do you understand how future liabilities work?


    Do you realize that the households assets are relevant? That households are on the hook for debts so at the same time you have to take into account the other column of the balance sheet? Do you realize that I did not mention corporate or government assets? They are not in the equation.


    What is your $120T of projected liabilities?


    Do you understand that the $87T in future liabilities are only...projections? Over a 75-year period? What will be the GDP in 75 years from now? What will be the assets?


    Do you understand that there are many measures that can be put in place along the way before getting into trouble?


    And I can go on and on...but it would not change anything because it seems that the gloom and doom squad will always speak the absolute truth while the other dummies will never understand the game even though we are making money...


    I wish you well.
    2 Oct 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    "Do you know anything about Asset Allocation?"


    I suppose not and I suppose that you do. That's probably why you are advising people to put some of their money in a bear market.
    2 Oct 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Exactly Krusty, but gold going up the last 12 years straight is hardly a bear market. Would one bad year in the stock market make it a bear market?


    When stocks were beaten down and gold finished higher in 2008, you could have taken some of your profits in gold and bought stocks right?


    2 Oct 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    Gold is lower than it was 3 years ago. So your followers have a negative return for a 3-year period. It's not just the fact that you were 3 years without making fact, you've lost money.


    Gold entered in a bear market in September 2011. We are in 2013.


    Let's talk about asset allocation.
    2 Oct 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty, I have told my clients to dollar cost average into an "allocation" since before September of 2011 when I turned dollar bullish and said that the gold price could have some pressure on it. I haven't changed that position since, except to call some short term bounces, rather perfectly. By dollar cost averaging into a position, your assumption of them buying at the price where it was in September of 2011 is presumptuous at best.


    I'll let you know when I go "all in."


    Gold ended last year (2012) higher than 2011. When you bought matters and you can't pick one date and say "you've lost money," especially if you averaged in and may get more at a lower price. You also discount anyone who bought lower in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.


    2013 isn't over yet, but I do expect a lower price than 2012. Of course the last time Congress had the debt ceiling issues (2011), gold rose $500 in 3 months.
    2 Oct 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty-


    You say there are ...measures that can be put in place...BEFORE getting into trouble.??
    Before??? What, you don't think the govt is in trouble NOW? The future is now already.


    I do believe that household assets are relevant - relevant to private households. You did refer to the $70 trl in assets in response to Doug's $120 trl of liabilities.
    "The insurance against $17 Trillion of National debt? What are we doing with the $70+ Trillion of assets the US has..."


    What are WE doing with the $70+ trl of assets?? (Who is "WE"?)


    I suppose that's only for the owners of the assets to decide. You weren't looking at the unfunded liabilities and then looking at the $70+ trl assets and then thinking that there was some obligation on the part of the asset owners to .... uh, . . . what were you thinking?


    Private assets should not be impaired by bloated govt with trillion dollar deficits and bloating $17 trl debt.


    Investing rule 1 (don't loose money) also means protect your assets from loss. That means always be keeping an eye on how the gov't is looking at private assets.
    2 Oct 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Bottom line: gold is lower now than it was 3 years ago.
    3 Oct 2013, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • I said, if we get in trouble. We are not.


    The circus in Washington is just that...a circus. Should we raise the debt ceiling? Hmmm let's fight a little bit, let's shut down the agencies and and so we'll give a great show for the next election. But what's the point really?


    Doug "golden boy" Eberhardt never responded regarding that $120T in liabilities...


    Also John, we are looking at a nation's wealth as a whole, you should know that. What do you need to repay that debt? Higher taxes? Higher contributions to various services? And what does that mean? In the end, the people are repaying this debt. The Government is an administrator representing the people. If the administration decides to raise the taxes in order to pay off that debt faster, you will pay, period, no choice here because it's YOUR debt. So households will have to pay more. How? Their choice. With their assets, with their income...their choice, but they will have to pay. So, that's why households assets are relevant. A balance sheet has 2 columns...always! I encourage you to read "Debunkery" from Ken Fisher, he explains that pretty well. As a billionaire I think that he understands how the system works a bit...


    And by the way John, I agree with you, "don't lose money" is an important rule, that's my #2 rule and should be the gold bugs rule as well.


    My #1 rule: make money.
    3 Oct 2013, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • The Emperor Has No Clothes: WWII Vets Expose Obama’s Contempt Towards the American People

    3 Oct 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty, so I should have sold my DOW stocks in Dec 2008 (8,877) Jan (8000) or Feb 2009 (7062) because 4 years earlier the DOW was Jan. 2004 the DOW was at 10,300 or 6 years earlier Mar 2002 the DOW was at 10,100?


    Bottom line, that was the time to buy.


    We can agree to disagree. Thanks for the conversation.


    3 Oct 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty, I gave you the link and asked you 10 questions you never responded to while answering all of yours. Don't twist this into name calling.
    3 Oct 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Depends on what you bought with it .If you used it as money you can invest Gold profit in many ways. That's what intelligent people do. If you BUY and HOLD stocks ,you are being quite foolish and a mark for the equity salesman to take advantage of. OTOH ,Gold buyers like myself buy $1000.00 worth for $900.00 and sell it when it's worth about 10% more than it was when we bought it. (That would be about $1100.00).100 deals like that and it makes no difference about volatility,and we are helping our local economy.
    3 Oct 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    No, you do not get it, Doug.


    You should sell anything after a parabolic blow off top. That was not case for the Dow in December 2008!


    Money management 101.
    3 Oct 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    You've answered all of my questions?? Geeezz...I encourage you to go back and read again.


    Also, you told me that you would not bother answering me in the future...what are you doing man? You changed your mind? LOL
    3 Oct 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • @CoinsK


    ''Depends on what you bought with it .If you used it as money you can invest Gold profit in many ways. That's what intelligent people do.''


    Yeah, as long as you have profits...


    You can also invest the money you made in stocks in many ways. That's what intelligent people do.
    3 Oct 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • No Krusty, you don't get it. I have tolerated you long enough. You have no clue what asset allocation is as proved by your answers.
    3 Oct 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    ''No Krusty, you don't get it. I have tolerated you long enough. You have no clue what asset allocation is as proved by your answers.''


    You are such a joker, Doug. :-)


    The only thing I know regarding asset allocation is to put your money in a mix of assets that will maximize your return. Gold has decreased people's returns for the past 3 years. Overall it was a bad asset allocation strategy to stay in gold right after a parabolic blow off top. Asset allocation strategy 101. lol


    Now please stop answering me with pure nonsense.
    3 Oct 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Typical media tactic Krusty...People who can't debate intellectually resort to name calling; "joker," "golden boy," etc. followed by many "LOL's" and smiley faces, exactly what you do here. But the media uses "conspiracy," "racist," "anti-semite," etc.


    Naturally, anyone reading this conversation can see I have tried to discuss things with you. I choose not to for the final time. (and your only reply is to come up with something clever and an "LOL" and smiley face, so I am presupposing it now.


    3 Oct 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • @Krusty


    It's been fun reading your comments. Too bad Doug takes comments like "joker" and smilely face as "insults,"'s obvious they were ways to lighten the mood so you could focus on discussing the issues....
    3 Oct 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt


    ''Typical media tactic...'' But the media uses "conspiracy," "racist," "anti-semite," etc.''


    Are you doing alright?? Please tell us. You don't like smileys? I think they are cool.


    ''Naturally, anyone reading this conversation can see I have tried to discuss things with you. I choose not to for the final time. (and your only reply is to come up with something clever and an "LOL" and smiley face, so I am presupposing it now.''


    You did not try to discuss anything here. You did not even answer my first question regarding the $120T in liabilities.


    Then, you cannot even admit that it is a wrong asset allocation strategy to keep an asset following a parabolic blow off top. In fact, you are telling me that I do not understand how asset allocation works...hello Doug?


    And then...again, you are trying to convince me that it was a good decision to keep gold in your portfolio for the past 3 years even though it has negatively affected your total returns?


    I think that anyone here is intelligent enough to see where you are coming from. Stop drinking the ''Zero Hedge'' Kool-aid, Doug. The markets don't care about Zero Hedge.


    So keep on writing e-books and selling gold to your ''clients''. It seems that gloom and doom is good marketing these days.


    By the way, I remember well our first debate. You were the guy who called me a ''clown'' because I was not in agreement with you. It was an easy one, Doug and a good one! Krustyman=clown. Now, I am not so sure who is who! :-)


    Now I'll let you discuss your nonsense with your followers.
    3 Oct 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty is not a clown?


    You're the one who chose the nickname.
    3 Oct 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like


    I would appreciate the banter to either be more professional or cease. I don't like to delete comments because I like showing both sides of an argument. BOTH of you are bright but have a different opinion on how to invest.


    Can you guys bring it down a notch and just present you facts and leave out the snide comments , smiley faces, etc ? I do feel both of you are educating people and helping some to decide how to invest. I would have stated this earlier but I don't read SA 24/7.


    I ALSO created a new chapter and wrote TIMEOUT two days ago. Hoping calmer heads would prevail. Please continue just be more cordial is all I ask!


    3 Oct 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DOUG


    Avi was a lawyer once so I get that he plays the middle yet people just don't get it. Once he said "silver might go to 28 an ounce but I haven't discounted my opinion that it might also drop to 22 an ounce."


    Yup, that was close to the wording in one of his articles. When you make a statement like that how can you ever be wrong? I don't follow people like that to be honest. But he is making a pretty good buck doing it so who am I to complain..


    It's like saying the Pittsburgh Steelers might not lose this week, but they have a chance of winning also. Meanwhile they are on a bye week!!! lol
    30 Sep 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • IT, I calculated Avi's recent range. It's actually 32% from high to low. You're right...if silver goes higher, to his $25 range, then he claims victory. If it goes to the $17 range, he claims victory.


    "Exactly where we said it would go." That's his favorite line.
    30 Sep 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • case in point from a comment he made a few minutes ago:


    "But, as you both said, next target is in the 17s . . . do we have to go higher before dropping there or are we going straight there . . that is still a question I cannot answer but have given you support and resistance levels for you to make your own determinations.


    And if you need more guidance, there is always my Trading Room."
    30 Sep 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Doug
    Its amazing the articles that are basically just personal journal entries of someone's thoughts on a topic essentially no "actionable" content. I know what you mean about Avi, but he does have a following. He's always the same: "sentiment" is what matters - whatever that is; there is no manipulation of markets; and if silver doesn't hold at X level it will go down to Y level, but if it goes up to A level then it continue up to B level. Not sure which will happen - it depends on sentiment, but EW will predict the levels.


    If you believe in manipulation you are on the wrong side of the trade. (according to him)


    Does he ever submit an article and have it turned down?


    I like the comments of Happiesthohosilver when he comments on Avi's articles.
    30 Sep 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds a lot like the Elliot Wave mumbo jumbo.
    30 Sep 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Pay up and I will lead you to the promise land!!
    30 Sep 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK ONTO A NEW CHAPTER !!

    2 Oct 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • I know sanctions are a popular policy tools... but now the US is doing sanctions ...on itself?
    2 Oct 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
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