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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
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    Author’s reply » Any opinions on how this shutdown will effect stocks short and long term ??
    2 Oct 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    From an LPL (Linsco Private Ledger) friend...

     

    Since 1980 there has been 11 Government shut downs. The last time the Federal Government put non-essential government workers on furlough and suspended non-essential services was from November 14 through November 19, 1995 and from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996, for a total of 28 days. However, the average duration of the shut downs have been less than 4 days long and have not affected essential functions of the US Government like the payment of Social Security benefits. Moreover, according to Representative Darrell Issa, even though government workers have been furloughed and pay has been suspended, historically they have never gone without ultimately being paid. In each case, the employees were paid retroactive to the event for full compensation.

     

    The shut down back in 1996 that occurred during the Clinton administration, was the fist time I was personally exposed to such a shocking event while entrenched in the field of finance. I was a college intern for a financial planning firm located in Santa Barbara, CA. I remember thinking, “What the heck are we going to do if the government shuts down”. I soon found out what the media really meant by the term “shutdown”, yet I was still only partially relieved. The reason this event still remains fresh in my memory, was because of the almost palpable fear expressed by the firm’s principals that this particular event was sure to send the S&P 500 back down to 500. Yes, 500. We have come a long way since then and this evening the S&P 500 closed at 1,695.00. Further proof, we must not let the media and politics formulate long-term investment plans. These events seem to control the markets in the very short-term and as a wealth manager, I find many buying opportunities and entry points into both stock and bond positions because of investor panic concerning political issues. Most notably the debt ceiling debates in the fall of 2011. The S&P 500 fell 19% during that fiasco. With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that was a tremendous opportunity to buy stocks and high yield bonds. Based on fundamentals of both the US economy and the health of particular US and Emerging Market companies, we bought reasonable amounts of stock and bonds during that sell off. It was not easy to do and I assure you most individual investors, using emotion as their guide, sold quality assets into the panic and in most cases, ultimately regret the decision and buy the stocks and bonds again later at inflated prices. Of course, they waited until “the smoke had cleared and things were better”. In other words, they waited until prices were higher.

     

    With that being said, we do have potential for this shutdown to become protracted and with the looming debt ceiling debates again on the docket for October 17th, we must remain discipline in how much and what kind of risk we are taking. As of now, we are still maintaining a conservative bias for clients taking distributions from their accounts or those who do not wish to tolerate high levels of volatility. We may have another, possibly more significant, buying opportunity present itself, as this shutdown extends out over several days and we get closer to the next congressional debate. During this time you will hear the media discuss a possible default of US Treasury debt and potential downgrades of US Treasury bond credit quality by firms like Standard and Poors. We have been through this before and in fact have suffered through a downgrade of US Treasury debt back in 2011. Markets were tumultuous during these times, but terrific buying opportunities were available for those who had a formal plan and a disciplined approach to buying high quality, low priced stocks and bonds.

     

    We stand ready to deploy capital as entry points are achieved and we remain fully aware of the volatility that may become quite significant in the coming weeks. Portfolios we build are designed to withstand volatility and mitigate risk as much as reasonably possible.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • richonsilver
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    "These events seem to control the markets in the very short-term and as a wealth manager, I find many buying opportunities and entry points into both stock and bond positions because of investor panic concerning political issues"

     

    I concur and was thinking the same thing. My question now is, how do you pinpoint an entry point? We have no idea how long the shutdown will last or if we can get a budget. Will everything fall into place over the next month or does the shit really hit the fan and if it does, how do we determine the "right time" to get in???. So many "ifs" rule the day so my question is WHEN? Your philosophy of buying at a time of uncertainty and mayhem is quite valid but exactly WHEN does the green light go on for a buy?

     

    I am sitting on some cash within an IRA that I want to allocate to funds and/or stocks but don't know when to do so. In particular I am considering the fund (DLN), the BDC (PSEC) and in metals (PSLV). Any thoughts on these and/or timing in general???
    6 Oct 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
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    Author’s reply » It seems like gold does not want to go below $1300 no matter what. Am I correct here?
    2 Oct 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Not sure what you mean IT. It was at $1,285 yesterday. A break below $1,260 and we may test the lows later this year. I can easily see that happening if we get some sort of a resolution on the debt. I'm actually rather bullish on the stock market if that occurs. But of course all this is short term thinking and base on a big "if" at this point. Republicans last stand in my opinion because of the elections next year and how they vote today will be reflected come November 2014.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @DOUG

     

    That was my point. One day below $1300 and it shot right back up. I had read $1295 was a testing point ,as I do not read charts. But it has been tested a few times if I am correct and has bounced back.

     

    But what do I know !
    2 Oct 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Here's what Larry Edelson had to say;

     

    "The $1,360 – $1380 resistance levels I cited in last week’s report will still act as resistance on any rallies we see in gold. If gold cannot fall to new lows by October 3rd, we will likely see a very choppy period into year-end, then a stab at new lows again in January — before the bull market returns."

     

    I'm actually bullish in January, but cautious into year end tax selling. Keeping a close eye on the debt debate and the dollar though. .
    2 Oct 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Someone just commented in another article that gold is always good on Wednesdays. Any truth to that?
    2 Oct 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    No idea, and a quick Google of it shows nothing.
    2 Oct 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
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    Author’s reply » On a different note I loved the Vets not accepting the WW11 Monument being shut down. Shows you what Americans can really do when you put our backs to the wall.
    2 Oct 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
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    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IT, there is Iron in your words of wisdom!
    2 Oct 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
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    Author’s reply » TRUTH OR DARE??

     

    Treasury: Catastrophe awaits if debt ceiling not raised

     

    Hard at work despite the government shutdown, Treasury authors a report warning of "catastrophic" consequences if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling and the U.S. is forced to temporarily default. The executive summary: 2008 will be considered a tea party by comparison.

     

    Taking us back to August 2011, Treasury reminds of the harm caused by just the threat of default then. To review: The S&P 500 declined 13% in about a month. To review further: This was also in conjunction with the EU debt crisis bubbling over. To review even further: This washout set the stage for a 50% increase in the market in the ensuing two years.

     

    Thoughts for the lurkers !! and me.....
    3 Oct 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I still don't understand the use of a 'debt ceiling' if it is always raised....

     

    It would be nice if they used my accounting standards for the family finances - money out should not be greater than money in.

     

    P.S. Was SA down for a good part of today (10/3)?
    3 Oct 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @JBT

     

    Yup, SA was down...
    4 Oct 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @JB & IT

     

    I'm guessing I'll understand the debit ceiling a lot better in a couple weeks, with endless rounds of "explaining" from CNN, & so on :).

     

    I'm guessing that after this round of "contest," the politicians will move much faster through the debit ceiling. Which isn't in my favor - I'd like that drop so I can get back in more easily. That 50% increase in next two years while true, probably counts from the bottom of the drop...and includes many other factors post that fiasco in 2011. So it's nice to see, but not sure how much it's "predictive or unpredictive," it is. Those being my thoughts.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
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    Author’s reply » Well I guess it's now ok for our police to shoot a women running away from the scene.

     

    I fully understand the severity and the intensity around Washington these days. But did they really have to shoot and kill her? From what I hear she was fleeing the car unarmed !

     

    Could have been handled differently imo.. MAYBE BOX THE CAR IN? Shoot out the tires?

     

    Thoughts!
    4 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    IT

     

    I agree completely. They responded like DC was under some major attack. They could have just blocked off the street. She was not armed. The shooters (police or whoever) are a disgrace.

     

    We are in more at risk of being assaulted by police than we are of being attacked by a criminal. If you are attacked by a criminal you can defend yourself. If you are assaulted by the police you cannot defend yourself. They will call in backup and use deadly force if you defend yourself. The may throw you down and beat you with batons for a few minutes, or they may just shoot you because they imagined you had a weapon.

     

    Just a few weeks ago the police went to a nursing home to the room of a 95 year old man, to enforce a court order to take him away to force him to have an operation that he did not want and may have killed him. He held up a knife (probably a butter knife) and they shot him in his own room with a 12ga bag round at close range. They then "arrested" him (for resisting official acts) and then he died from internal injuries in custody.
    http://bit.ly/1fPdysr

     

    How bad are the police? Anyone can spend a whole day just reading the search results from a search of:
    "police beats woman".
    Yeah, POLICE BEATS WOMAN - very common.

     

    And how about the "No Hesitation" police training pistol targets. What is a No Hesitation target? It is a target made of a poster of a child, pregnant woman or young woman or girl, or old person holding and pointing a gun. These are being used for police and DHS training. They're being trained to shoot women and children if they suspect they are holding a weapon. Shoot first, verify it later.
    http://bit.ly/WanFcV
    4 Oct 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    @JW (yes, I realize we don't always get along),

     

    Thanks for depressing the hell out of me on the night before I have to go to my sister's wedding. Does the old - gent - getting - slaughtered aritcle have any links or sources that could be cross-referenced? (I don't doubt that this occurred, just always like to have at least two sources).

     

    And for anyone who wants to be really disturbed or have your black/white worldview shaken, go to liveleak.com and search for police brutality videos. Can spend a couple of days there watching (don't ask me how I know).

     

    Anywho, does anyone know if the infant in the car is alive? I'm not following this story beyond what I heard on the radio.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    User

     

    I really don't understand the "don't get along" statement. I thought I got along with everyone :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-)

     

    Sorry, for depressing the hell out of you. You can easily find multiple reports of the 95 year old man story just by doing a search with the phrase:

     

    "police shoot 95 year old man in nursing home"

     

    Just as outrageous is the search results you get with the search:
    "police beat woman"

     

    I am glad to report that the news footage showed the one-year old miraculously unharmed, safely being held by a female officer after the police heroes had saved the city by killing her mother.

     

    But put this all aside for the weekend and have a good time at your sister's wedding.

     

    JW
    4 Oct 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @USER

     

    Can anyone explain why the child is still in protective care rather then with family ??

     

    I just don't get this part ..
    4 Oct 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    @JW,

     

    I'm glad the kid's alive.

     

    @IT,

     

    If it were animals we were talking about, it might make a good Disney movie. Hunter kills the vicious wolf but feels sad for the cub and takes it to raise as his own.

     

    I really hope I'm just having a dark sense of humor this morning and I'm way off, but that's the first analogy that popped in my head.
    5 Oct 2013, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    No mercy. Police, and the government in general, are cyborgs.

     

    The woman may have had a bullet-shooting brassiere a'la Austin Powers... You really just never know.
    6 Oct 2013, 04:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    But the NRA has got this all wrong huh?

     

    It is pathetic that it seems the police are inept at handling anything out of the ordinary. Shoot first and ask questions later is a sad policy!
    4 Oct 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    They had no information except that a car tried to run over a policeman, and speed away in circles towards another major target, the capital. It'd be wonderful in hindsight if they'd known, but they were worried about a car bomb or other deadly attack.

     

    The whole area is seriously blocked off, so to drive there attack style takes choice. You can't just wander up by accident right in front of the white house.

     

    I'm not up to speed on quality of police, but this wasn't a straight police action. This is semi-military sight, effectively, a week after the Navy shootings...erratic behavior & then more erratic behavior. So very frustrating, but not unrealistic to what was happening.

     

    You can't shoot out car tires - it's apparently, that's more of a TV myth than a real option.

     

    I'll wait for the investigation to see if this made sense, but I'm not judging till I hear all the details, not just the current news blurbs.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls
    Wouldn't you agree that you (not you personally) can end up in front of the White House if you are under the delusion that Pres Obama has a "thing" for you or something. When a delusional person in their car is surrounded all the way around by police officers, she may be accused of trying to "run down" one of them in the attempt to drive away. To some it looks like they could have ended the event differently.
    JW
    5 Oct 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @JW

     

    I'll stick with what I said-- that it's not realistic to judge this based on the blips from media that is all we have. Wouldn't you agree that blips & blurbs can give impressions that have little to do with what really happens?

     

    Why not let my opinion stand as is, instead of trying to get me to join the "they did bad" crowd. I don't know that they did. I'm not willing to come to any conclusions with this little info. Maybe she aimed at & tried to run someone over. Maybe it's not a 'false' accusation. Calling it false is a HUGE leap to come to -- with nothing directly supporting that. Also, maybe in split second decision making, it's different than post mortem with all sorts of info available.

     

    To some, it looks like claiming it could have ended differently is a jump to conclusions. Could be. Or could not be. I'd rather be thoughtful & patient, than vilify based on guesswork in this. That's my stated position from the beginning. It's all terribly sad, but I'm not going to let my sorrow lead me to want to insist on a particular conclusion.

     

    What I conclude is the same conclusion I've had for several years now. We need to start funding mental health as though it's as significant an illness as any other -- so more folks get better treatment automatically (or at least better monitoring) & less of these tragedies happen.
    5 Oct 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls
    Okay,.... sorry :-( :-( :-(
    5 Oct 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ JW

     

    No prob :). Just different points of view - at the moment.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No information? You had about 7 armed men around the car looking in. They didn't see a kid in the back? I did not see any damage to the front of the car as it supposedly tried to CRASH through the barricade.

     

    From where I sit they just choked big time on this one !

     

    If it had a car bomb it would have been detonated way before they killed her. Now you seriously think WE will ever know the truth besides what you can see on film?

     

    Another cover up coming !! Waiting for the investigation ?? I DON'T TRUST any investigations once you have a major screw up.

     

    I agree that tensions are high but they had other options and just blew it. No weapon, they had time after her car crashed to at least think for a moment. Nope , they just opened fire...

     

    That is their new training policy as the cops in NYC now train with the military as well. WHY????
    4 Oct 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    They didn't see the kid in the backseat --- so they didn't have information. I don't know why, but I don't get an impression of lying about that. Whatever we're getting from a fragment of video isn't the whole sequence (she drives off at that point).

     

    On military -- I wasn't saying anyone trains with the military (I don't know one way or the other), but the white house & capital aren't purposely civilian targets & the policies are different than with civilian targets.

     

    I will wait for more information & more investigation. I'm not judging based on bits & pieces from the media. The story always looks different with more pieces come in.
    4 Oct 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    "They didn't see the kid in the backseat --- so they didn't have information"

     

    Devils advocate here. How do you know this to be true? I would think when an officer put his face to the car window he saw that kid. It is on the video.

     

    I also agree with your mental health point of view.Additionlly It was ME who stated the police train with the military. I have family that know this for a fact !
    5 Oct 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    They said they didn't see the kid (one of the people involved were on the news at one point commenting in passing). I tended to believe them. It's my judgement-call from tone of voice, body language. This is part of why I say we don't have the whole story yet. It's not a full picture yet.

     

    I didn't see anyone put his face to the window. Near by, not right onto the window. It was all quickly, in the time before the car drove off, & it could be that none of them saw a kid in the back seat. Could be was fast enough that none had time to move their glaze from the driver to the backseat - or didn't have the right angle (a kid is much lower than an adult back there). Maybe the kid scrunched down? If the driver drove up wildly to that location, I doubt these people (who stand around all day & had to get suddenly oriented), were thinking 'kid in car' instead of thinking "bomber, lone derange gunmen 'again' "... Eye witnesses are notoriously wrong. One could have looked straight at the kid but because of expectations, not registered it.

     

    So I find it all puzzling, but too many times, when more has come out, the story makes more sense or looks entirely different than the media's bits...

     

    Training with military came from you, ah. This location in particular will have military either training them or straight working there as well...
    5 Oct 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    IT
    It's like the police are becoming an extension of the military. Posse Comitatus Act is being circumvented. The military by this act was barred from occupying or enforcing laws or directives on the citizenry.

     

    The police departments are becoming militarized, even acquiring armored vehicles and tanks with DoD or DHS funding. They are starting to get their protocols and training from DHS. The police are becoming more and more arrogant, referring to citizens as "civilians" as if they (police) are on a level above everyone else. Fellow police or military are "brothers." We are under them from their perspective.

     

    A police state is obviously being formed. You ask "Why?" IT. Everyone should be asking "why".

     

    I remember your brother is a firefighter. I do respect law enforcement and public safety but I don't like the trend that we are seeing.

     

    You are right - I saw the group of police surrounding and looking into the car. How could they have not seen that it was a deranged woman with a baby in the back.
    4 Oct 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Zero tolerance. No room for error when someone rams a barricade outside of a highly guarded bunker (the WH) which the President is not even occupying at the moment (it was tee time, I think).

     

    The baby may have contained a bomb. Should have eliminated that threat as well. I expect officers to go up on charges for not recognizing that threat.
    6 Oct 2013, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    JBT

     

    The baby was necessary for the photo-op (female officer holding baby) to show the compassion of the police after terminating the mother.
    6 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    So let me get this straight. You would have to assume that whatever members carrying guns around the White House are the ELITE...They (supposedly) make split second accurate decisions.

     

    Train real hard, handle the stress related situations the best.

     

    Yup...shoot an unarmed women running away from a car?

     

    I still need to wrap my head around how I can run over a nail and get a flat tire yet you can't shoot a tire and get the same result? Then, of course, we read how our military had a successful mission overseas. Or did they?

     

    Hum...
    6 Oct 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    It's not that a bullet can't flatten a tire. It's that even the best sharp shooters, aiming at a moving tire don't hit it often. Windshields are bigger targets. That's the story on why it's a myth.. I haven't researched the accuracy (of hitting vs. it being a myth).
    6 Oct 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    The car was stationary for about 5 to 10 seconds. It was surrounded by about 7 gunman and none of them thought of blowing out the tires?

     

    I could have gotten off 5 shots with my pistol in that amount of time. If you have seen the same footage I have that was a no brainer imo..

     

    No sharp shooting was necessary. They could have just placed their pistol on the tire they were so close!!

     

    Ultimate choke !!
    6 Oct 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @JB

     

    They didn't shoot her after ramming a barricade. It was after she drove off running red lights speeding on the way towards another target, the capital building.

     

    At tee time? Is everyone, kept apprised of his minute to minute recreation schedule but me? Geez.

     

    Hope you're joking on the baby...

     

    Does remind me though of marches by a group of Hamas supporters where they strapped suicide belts, to their babies as they marched along. Not here in US, but a huge surprise a decade or so ago in Israel was when a pregnant lady in an ambulance turned out to be not-pregnant suicide bomber who well, murdered people. And I thought deranged was a requirement for this sort of stuff.... last week the deranged person who shot people at the Navy yard.

     

    I still think the solution is to back it up & get better care, a long time before these points...

     

    In many locales for a bunch of years now, there's been some effort to train police in how to deal with mental health issues & domestic violence. That too is effective but often gets defunded... especially since the recession. There were even special courts set up in a few districts that solved a whole bunch of problems, getting treatment for people who used to be revolving door cases for the prison system.
    6 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    IT and Curls:

     

    It was no longer necessary to shoot out or flatten her tires to stop her car. She went off the road while trying to make a U-turn and her car was hung up and stopped off the curb.

     

    She was sitting in her stopped car as police walked up to it and fired upon her in execution style. No mercy. DC Capital police: judge jury and executioners.
    6 Oct 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    I was talking about the moments prior when they surrounded the car as it was stationary. They blew it , pure and simple..

     

    I don't buy whatever cover up we will read about. It seems they are now told to shoot first then answer questions after. Sad policy as I am afraid this is just the start of problems to come.

     

    Like I stated these are the Elite? Wow>>>>
    6 Oct 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ JW

     

    I haven't seen any reports that match your description. When I see them, I'll judge them.

     

    If someone is dangerous & you ask questions first, you're dead. So procedures have to balance some very fine lines. Did police tell her to sit still or they'd fire, and she reached for something? Policy is to shoot, & policy is to aim at the head & chest, not a wounding shot.

     

    @ IT

     

    Yes, they could have stopped the car at that point by blowing the tires. I'm not sure what was going on, but they didn't seem to want to stop it, & I don't think it was procedure to do any shooting at that point -- so I'd want more story first.

     

    It's human desire to blame someone when an innocent person dies. But that's not always accurate. Quick emotionally-satisfying judgement, doesn't always lead to truths. Could be mis-action. Or could be they followed procedures that make sense. There'll be attorneys for the family, so there'll be at least some details coming out eventually. She did a lot of questionable stuff, they weren't just shooting some random poor-quality driver.

     

    It's interesting to me, to see the different ways people process this.
    6 Oct 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am surly waiting for the spin !!

     

    Not sure what we would consider "information" is forthcoming. I know tensions are high but that is why we train these guys. To handle this !
    6 Oct 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    This Miriam Cary story has taken an odd turn. Rather than putting a long post on this Commodities blog, and it is controversial, I decided to write an Insta-blog, as this will be my view and analysis of the story and seemed too much for a "comment" format.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Feel free to read and comment. I have added much more than I feel I could write on the topic here.

     

    I will put a link back to this blog to make it easy to come back here.
    6 Oct 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ JW

     

    Apparently I'm not allowed to see your instablog :). The link shows your gold posts. On the right that F&G commented. But it doesn't show up for me. SA programming glitch I imagine.
    6 Oct 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I guess bottom line for me is that I don't really care. The woman was a nut, and got shot to death. Trayvon was a thug, and got shot to death. I just don't care.

     

    The stuff like that Aussie guy getting shot for no reason, or that baby getting shot in the face bothers me - not some crazy woman that was having a mental breakdown and was acting foolish.
    6 Oct 2013, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Interesting observation on big money
    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    "If Washington were about to kill the stock market and destroy the nation's pristine credit rating, Goldman Sachs would not allow Twitter to go public."

     

    Then again... big money was sure the taper would begin, and lost on that one.
    7 Oct 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gotta admit that (PSEC) is getting down in price to a point that I can't refuse it !!

     

    Breaking below $11 bucks is getting enticing to add to my ROTH account. MAYBE I am getting a little greedy here but $10.50 would be a bargain Imo.

     

    Any opinions ??
    7 Oct 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Buy it. Do it in increments if you have to, but I believe that under $11 it's a deal. Even better if it's in a Roth; + 11% dividends tax free?
    7 Oct 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    User:

     

    Sorry, not tax-free. You will get a 1099-Div at year end for dividends paid to shareholders, and may also report short and long term capital gains.

     

    BDCs like PSEC, the company pays little or no corporate income tax. As a pass-through tax structure like REITS, BDCs must distribute at least 90 percent of taxable income as dividends.

     

    The shareholders pay the tax on the divs reported on 1099Div
    8 Oct 2013, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    @JW,

     

    Even if it's in a Roth?
    8 Oct 2013, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    No ,not if it's in a Roth. Money in a Roth has already been taxed before putting it into the Roth. No more tax :-)
    8 Oct 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This game of chicken is starting to get very interesting !!

     

    Interest rates are starting to creep up ....

     

    Thoughts..

     

    "Default watch: One-month T-bill rate soars

     

    The yield on 4-week T-bills soars to its highest level since Lehman after the just completed Treasury auction prices the paper at 0.355% vs. 0.295% in when-issued trading. The yield was roughly zero a month ago. As a reminder, the money-market funds that are natural buyers of these bills have to refrain if they believe there is a chance they won't get paid"
    8 Oct 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    The amount of money wasted on short term debt due to higher interest rates is just one cost this stupidity in DC is causing.

     

    By the way, I blame them ALL. All idiots, costing the people in this country a lot of hardship.

     

    Hopefully today they will come to their senses and do something to end this insanity.
    10 Oct 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I've been watching "Ellen" reruns on FX. Very soothing during this trying time ; )

     

    As for the crazy lady in DC that sadly got shot to death, I think the police did the right thing. One officer had to be helicoptered out with injuries, there may have been many more injuries if they had just shot out the tires. The car could still be driven, even with shot out tires, for a short time. During that time, who knows how many innocent bystanders could have been run over. It is remarkable that nobody else was shot - I would have expected that, watching the video as they all were firing on the car. Also a miracle that the baby survived.

     

    Bottom line, they didn't know she was crazy. They didn't know if she had a bomb in the car. IMO they did the best they could.

     

    My issue is with her family. They knew she was having postpartum depression & she was on major meds. Apparently, this poor woman was living all on her own, with her baby. Where was her family?? They should have been with her during her time of crisis.

     

    My son was 6 months old when I started to care for him all by myself. My husband worked long hours & often travelled. It was the hardest job I've ever had, caring for a little baby. And I didn't have any mental health issues. We didn't have any family living close by either. Until I joined a play group & made friends with other stay at home moms it was grueling, very lonely. A joyful time of course, but a 24/7 job that never let up.
    10 Oct 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    BSF
    I wasn't going to comment anymore on Miraim Carey on IT's blog since I wrote an Instablog article where I gave my views on this, but I will say that your view on her mental condition just seems to just repeat what the major media outlets have put out. I will not go with what they say just because THEY said it.

     

    Were you aware that the Capital Police and Secret Service did not stop her by shooting her as she was fleeing? She was ALREADY stopped after jumping the curb and becoming jammed against a structure and not going anywhere as the police approached. She was just sitting there, unarmed and no bomb (hysterical,reckless, shoot-from-the-hip reporting) when they calculatingly approached and put 17 rounds into her at close range. One witness said they first took the baby from the car first, and THEN began shooting. Link to My blog is above, about 11 comments upward.
    10 Oct 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Maybe that's why law enforcement has to buy so many bullets, making it near impossible for me to buy .22 rounds for target shooting / snake killing. Overkill.

     

    Like that guy in the helicopter in Full Metal Jacket.... "Get some!"
    10 Oct 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    .22 ROUNDS HAVE DROPPED IN PRICE WHERE I LIVE. !!

     

    Finally, you can get a 500 round bric for under 30 bucks! It was over $80 if you can believe that !

     

    Please don't tell me you eat the snakes...
    10 Oct 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Funny how that story has died down huh?
    10 Oct 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    Could you please repost that link?? I am getting something different. Would like to read your thoughts on it.

     

    Thanks!
    10 Oct 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    No, I don't eat the snakes. :) We have cottonmouths, and I tried to kill the last one with a BB gun, and it didn't work out so well. Damn thing looked dead, so I put it in a bucket for disposal. Came back to bucket and snake was gone. Found hm on porch, and he almost bit me when I tried to capture him again.

     

    Hit that sucker right between the eyes with a good Daisy air rifle, too. Pumped it like 12 times. Should have used a pellet.

     

    Anyways, I still have a good part of a 500-box left, but last time I checked our WMT, ammo was still scarce. They did start carrying AR's again, though, so that's a good sign.
    10 Oct 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Here it is again. I tried the one above and it worked for me. That the story "died down" is an understatement. That's one thing I focus on.

     

    http://bit.ly/16Ur1fb

     

    Also if you go to the SA home page and put Miriam Carey in the search box it will come up.
    10 Oct 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW
    JW

     

    Still not working for me. I think since you are the author you get something different.

     

    CURLS had the same issue. I get your blog on gold and then all the other blogs you wrote, I don't see one for this though.

     

    Now where is the search box on the SA home page as I will try that way??
    10 Oct 2013, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    I even pulled up some of the comments on the article and then when I look at the commenter of that post it does not exist.

     

    I bet you have it in draft or SA deleted it. Maybe someone else can open it? I even tried in the search and it says there is an article but when I click on it I just get the blog on gold...

     

    So something is amiss.
    10 Oct 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Sorry

     

    Sorry, It was in draft mode. SA was running real slow when i worked on it last time. Maybe it didn't publish correctly. The link should work now.

     

    http://bit.ly/16Ur1fb
    11 Oct 2013, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    "And I didn't have any mental health issues."

     

    Uh, YOU are a Giants fan correct? :)

     

    Just sayin>>
    10 Oct 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, we have been doing the challenge for a few months now. So anyone want to comment on how their portfolio is doing?

     

    Me, I just took a gamble playing a 3x leverage play that I basically guessed right on. The funny part is had I just stayed with (PSEC) I would likely be close to the same gain.

     

    So my game plan is to basically stay with this BDC unless I get an itch to essentially take a high risk gamble.

     

    Any one want to chime in as this site has been quiet for some time..
    11 Oct 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gold sell-off tied to single trade: Nanex

     

    Was one trade responsible for a sudden $25 drop in the price of gold Friday morning?

     

    The move lower — which happened in the space of 2 minutes and sent the yellow metal to a three-month low — is being blamed on a market order to sell 5K gold futures contracts, Nanex tells CNBC.

     

    "About 2,700 went off and tripped the stop logic, halting gold futures for 10 seconds while liquidity replenished. When enough liquidity returned (after 10 seconds), the balance of about 2,300 completed," Nanex remarked.

     

    The move appears to have affected silver, platinum, and even oil.

     

    HUMMM........
    11 Oct 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Someone wised up and unloaded their large horde of gold. ;)
    11 Oct 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    The gold trade is continuing to go south, because there's more money to be made elsewhere.

     

    Bought some (DUST) on Tuesday....will see how high it goes while gold slides.

     

    Have a good weekend everybody.

     

    If you are in DC for the big trucker rally, it's a non event. You could help pick up trash around the Washington Memorial, that's where Glenn Beck will be : )
    11 Oct 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Someone wised up and unloaded their large horde of gold. ;) "

     

    Yeah I am sure that trade was made by some little ole man sitting around. Not some BIG BANK? The FED? :)

     

    Nah, manipulation never happens>>>>
    12 Oct 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is a comment from another article.

     

    "Gold manipulation is ongoing, and a glaring example was the Tue morning after the Monday midnight government shut down. There was a massive sell order placed counter to what normal market expectations of money flowing to a safe haven would be. From a recent article by SA author Tim Iacona - "After the government shut down at midnight on Monday, the gold price tumbled more than $40 an ounce on Tuesday as shown below via INO.com, the bulk of the move coming just as markets opened when a large sell-order overwhelmed open bids and then triggered stop-loss orders, causing the price to plunge. This is an all-too-familiar occurrence in metal markets as noted in this item on Wednesday, as this "smacks of market manipulation since any 'normal' seller would want to get the best price for his gold position, one that would definitely not be the result of quickly running through open buy orders at successively lower prices."

     

    The question to be asked is why is gold being held down? What is the government afraid of?"

     

    I KNOW, I KNOW , many of you don't believe in any form of manipulation I am far from a gold bug, I do own stocks. But I also know when to be open minded and ask questions..

     

    That one trade reeks !!!!
    12 Oct 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Wait til next year when gold goes under $1000. And yes, I will be watching gold like a hawk, making $ off of DUST or NUGT as the situation presents itself.

     

    Why is gold falling???? Because it's not considered a place to stash your cash while the world ends anymore.

     

    As these large investors continue to dump their holdings, gold will continue to fall.

     

    Unless something happens to put Fear back into the equation (like a big war, the Tea Party ending democracy as we know it, etc) gold will continue to be dumped. Sooner or later, people are realizing that they are missing out on the best place to make money. Stocks! While those investors hung onto their gold, the stock market moved higher. They lost out on one of the all time best rallies, US stocks since spring 2009.

     

    Notice also that gold has gone down $25 or more for several days in a row. Here's the gold chart so you can check

     

    http://cnb.cx/1guRilu

     

    Gold has gone up in one day almost $60 too. Check 9/18/13....that day, I bought DUST. To me, a $60 increase while the overall trend was Down was too good to pass up. Held it for about 3 days & sold. Too soon because DUST has gone to $43 and I bought it at $23 (sold around $31). Last Tuesday, bought DUST again for $36. Haven't sold it yet, may hang on until next year if the overall gold trend continues Down.

     

    Just as when gold was oversold, I bought NUGT back around Aug. 6. As gold went up, the Syria crisis helped it go even higher. That was my first time using the NUGT/DUST trade.

     

    Am I lucky? No because I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. As they say "if it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all." What I am good at is watching the price of gold being influenced by politics, fear, the economy, problems in Syria, etc.
    12 Oct 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    BSF and anyone else who wants to follow gold & silver

     

    Here are where you can track both by charts:
    * Everyone knows about Kitco, right?
    http://bit.ly/IB0T8d
    Shows a live time cash price chart with three days going across.

     

    * Everyone knows about StockCharts too: http://stockcharts.com
    At StockCharts under the group: "Consistently Popular:" you have $gold for continuous gold price and also other popular indexes. In the group called "Currently Popular" is GDX, GLD, and SLV. Of course you can type in any symbol you want. You can select daily or weekly charts.

     

    Drawback: with Stockcharts it is not live prices. Yesterday's close is the most current price on their charts.

     

    Charts with Live prices
    * Here are charts on the evil Comex. They have intraday live charts for so you can see prices with 15 min bars. Also daily or weekly. http://bit.ly/18FUmn6
    from this page click on the little charts icon for the most active futures month, like December. A new chart window will open. In this window you can reset the chart for intraday, daily or weekly.

     

    Here is another daily or intraday chart that was recomended by "happiesthihosilver"
    http://bit.ly/17qVe1g This is a good live price chart.

     

    There's where you can get your charts. Now all you need to know is what to do with them - how the heck to interpret them. Good luck.
    13 Oct 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the chart info Coins
    14 Oct 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @BSF

     

    COINS head is big enough already. It was JW who listed the charts for all of us. I know the Gmen have gotten you a little annoyed:)
    14 Oct 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    haha ! I'm too focused on what gold is doing to watch football.

     

    It's going to be awful watching the bastards in DC either screw up our lives more, or come to a decision before all h*ll breaks loose.

     

    I'm actually a pretty good negotiator after over 10 years doing real estate. Trying to help a relative of an old client of mine from about 8 years ago. I guess they liked me because they hung onto my cell phone number! Nobody can guide you thru the process of buying a home like I can. Nobody. I make all my clients listen to my financial advice too. If they have bad credit, I tell them to fix it. And save up enough cash for the emergency fund, retirement And the kids college...before putting away money for a down payment on a house. Actually, owning a home can be fool hardy. Look what happened after 2005....and yes, back then I was telling people not to buy because the housing market was too high & about to fall. And it did.

     

    No wonder people hang onto my contact info : )
    14 Oct 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    and thanks for those charts JW!
    14 Oct 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Even tho gold floated up earlier today, it's now close to what it was last Friday because the markets are anticipating a deal in DC.

     

    (DUST) is up a little more today. Will continue holding....as long as gold is trending lower. Which it is.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    3 pm today there's a press conference with the latest from DC. Expect that to move the markets....why do they have to fight until 10 seconds before the deadline? Idiots.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    All this horse trading in DC reminds me of the time my husband were still at the University, very poor & starving students. So whenever there was an opportunity to participate in a paid study, we did.

     

    One such study involved the dynamics of how 2 people negotiate. When I went in, the other person was a woman. We quickly read the instructions & scenarios. We had to come to an agreement on how much each of us would get with "the deal." A 60/40 split, 55/45, 70/30 etc. The idea was to see how much time it would take. After about 5 minutes, I said "okay great, you take 55% and I'll take 45% and we can be done. We only get paid $20 bucks for this experiment, so let's make some quick cash." Haha we were out of there in less than 10 minutes! Any guesses as to how long my husband and the guy he was negotiating with?

     

    Over an hour.....lol.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    The Republicans have wasted a lot of political capital on this debt showdown.

     

    Analogy: It's like how the US from 1963 to 1972 fought communism in Vietnam, and lost with 50,000 dead, only to see it (communism) fall apart all by itself later.

     

    What does that analogy mean?
    The Republicans fighting Obama-care is quite similar. They will have all kinds of casualties inflicted upon them and lose in the end.

     

    All they would have to do is just step aside and watch: Mike Adams who has managed IT projects and developed websites explains reveals the critical flaws in the system that are far beyond glitches.
    http://bit.ly/16cAAjy

     

    Because people will not be able to enroll it will not be successfully implemented.

     

    1. They didn't pick the right time and place for the battle. They should have attacked spending during the regular course of business by cutting it out of spending bills as they come up. They should also attack "baseline budget" yearly increases and get rid of them along with the "spend it or loose it" practice of govt agencies.

     

    2. They didn't have an exit strategy. Now all they an do is back down sheepishly - no saving face for them. The 51% who are dependent on government will totally blame the Republicans.

     

    I'm with Jesse Ventura and Ron Paul on this. I can't support either side.
    15 Oct 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    This is an interesting article

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "In 2008-2009, many commodities crashed, oil most spectacularly. That was the first indication that the secular disposition of the markets was changing. In 2011, just as in 1980, silver and gold went parabolic, the death knell of a commodity "supercycle."

     

    The particular relationships between given commodities and the earnings yield will probably not endure over the long run, but the stability of the relationship between the commodity sector as a whole and the earnings yield suggests that commodities can provide a reliable indicator of the secular disposition of the market. The current stock market rally has been confirmed by weakness in commodities generally and by the sometimes startling way in which precious metals have fallen this year."

     

    Naturally, if we go over the cliff, crash & burn, then all bets are off!
    15 Oct 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    the author also notes

     

    "A secular rise in equity yields begins with a surge in energy prices, especially oil, along with weakness in precious metals. When the surge in equity yields concludes, precious metals surge and oil peaks or falls. The ratio between the prices of oil and gold provide a simple history of the vagaries of the P/E ratio since the 1970s."

     

    So if we see gold rise & oil fall, then the stock market should fall too....
    15 Oct 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Great, let's shut down the gov't right before Christmas too.

     

    All I want for Christmas if for the lights to be on, everybody spending $, peace & goodwill to all....

     

    Yes I'll be praying that our dear congress persons strike a deal tonight & we are out of this mess by tomorrow. Sweet dreams everyone!
    15 Oct 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    No deal tonight - they ate their pizza and went home. :/

     

    I haven't noticed the shutdown myself...
    16 Oct 2013, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So is this really a budget deal or can kicking?

     

    I just got in so do not know the specifics. Appreciate some thoughts on this .

     

    Thanks!
    16 Oct 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    The government is not really shut down. Only 15% of it was temporarily shut down. 85% of it kept kept running. They only shut down the things that would be most visible that they could point too and say,

     

    "Oh look at the pain and suffering the shutdown is causing! See how awful it is when the government is shut down?"

     

    -- Like the national parks and WWII memorial.
    16 Oct 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    The shutdown & the fear of not paying interest on Treasuries cost us dearly.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1glLHAA

     

    People who work at the Statue of Liberty, shops in the National parks, towns close to the parks have lost millions.

     

    You might think, "govt shutdown didn't affect me personally. So it really doesn't matter." That's selfish.

     

    People couldn't close their homes - imagine if you had a closing scheduled the last 2 weeks or even next week. Fannie & Freddie weren't getting your mortgage money to your mortgage broker so you could buy a home.

     

    Utter stupidity. Shutting down the govt & raising the debt ceiling should not be dependent on political fights. The bozos in DC have to sit down & negotiate a real budget. One that cuts fairly, but across the board so we can start whittling down that over $13 trillion national debt. By the way, the Republicans have been refusing to do that. Now it's part of the Senate bill passed tonight.

     

    Really, you have to pass a bill in order to do your job & write a budget? Negotiations - and concessions from both sides - have to be done.

     

    If Obamacare is bad it will crash & burn on it's own. Stop fighting about it & move on.
    16 Oct 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    I think this sums it up nicely...

     

    http://bit.ly/PDPkys
    16 Oct 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I don't think it's selfishness... It's the realization that our government is truly and hopelessly bloated, and so much fat could be cut but never will be. Frustration is a better term.

     

    Parks and monuments (national) should be maintained on a volunteer basis, and barring that should be privatized under some government regulation.

     

    EPA - gone. DOE - gone. FDA - scaled WAY back. OSHA - neutered. FEMA - give me a break! TSA - gone like yesterday.

     

    So... much.... fat.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @JBT

     

    TSA ..Gone? I just read they are actually going to start piping in relaxing music and put up scenic backgrounds at airports to try and alleviate the stress while you wait to get frisked. I kid you not !

     

    Any way we can get rid of Pelosi ??
    17 Oct 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I think Pelosi would require am oaken stake driven directly though the center of her black heart. Her and Harry Reid are immortal netherbeings.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maybe it's just me.. But doesn't anyone find it interesting that once a deal was worked out gold actually rose.

     

    MANIPULATED DOWNWARD? Nah....

     

    Our boys running this country would never do that would they????

     

    I am no gold bug as I have stated many times, just stating what I see that's all !!!

     

    Oh, and for those of us that live in NY you will love this little law passed by our Governor that starts in January. If you buy just 5 gunshot shells you have to pay a $10 buck fee and you are registered in the State's computer bank. So the fee may actually cost more then the shells !!!

     

    Now the kicker is this isn't a one time fee. It is EVERYTIME you buy ammo. PLUS if you buy over 1k of .22 shells within a month you can have your house searched without a warning from the ATF.

     

    Now for those who do not target shoot you might think 1k shells in a month is a lot. But if you have 3 people going to the gun club to shoot you can go though that many shells in a month easily.

     

    Keep in mind that they sell a brick of these shells (525) all the time. For this exact reason. They know people go through them like water. Plus I like to buy a few bricks at the same time to save me from running back and forth to the store. Years ago they only cost about $15 bucks...It may last me 4 months but at least I had them on hand.

     

    No wonder we have such a shortage on these small bullets. It is easier to buy shotgun shells, and other high caliber ammo then a stinkin 22 rifle ammo. People are loading up before the New Year !!

     

    Just another tax and another way for big brother to look over us...AMAZING!!
    17 Oct 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Higher debt = positive for gold. Sold half my NUGT and looking to buy DUST in the near future "if" we get a continuation higher in gold. Still see lower prices towards year end. My latest: The Federal Reserve – Lender and Buyer of Last Resort http://bit.ly/17uF19T
    17 Oct 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well I still don't think we have crossed the last hurdle on this budget crises yet. They used a band aide approach.

     

    Will be interesting seeing how the markets react once the euphoria settles down. IBM'S numbers are kinda concerning me at this point. Is this the tip of the iceberg showing??

     

    Any thoughts?
    17 Oct 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Always a band-aid IT...always. There is no other choice. But what most gold bugs don't realize is that things can last longer (with Fed influence). Cheers!
    17 Oct 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So how does this article shake you up?

     

    http://onforb.es/19WwJ0f

     

    Say it ain't so....
    18 Oct 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » some additional info about gold...

     

    Traders befuddled by short, sharp movements in gold prices

     

    Gold traders have been puzzling over a series of massive transactions over the past three weeks that have caused the price of bullion to move sharply within a matter of minutes.

     

    The latest incident came in the wee hours of yesterday morning in New York, when a wave of orders to purchase $2.3B worth of gold caused the metal to spike 3% in just 10 minutes.

     

    Theories about what's causing the phenomenon include the effects of 24-hour electronic trading, short covering, selling by a distressed fund and deliberate market manipulation.

     

    MARKET MANIPULATION???? Humm........
    18 Oct 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FOCAL

     

    All cash huh? Can't wait until the trader in you starts up !! I guess most commenters have moved on as we have a core group left.

     

    Interested in BSF'S play on gold and how that plays out. I am back to my ONE BDC and seeing if the large dividend keeps me in the game.

     

    Otherwise it's back to gambling on the leveraged funds..
    18 Oct 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    On Gold...

     

    @IT - Let's say there's manipulation of the market. How does that effect you? Or what does it matter to? I'm curious to understand why the manipulation is important to you & what you see it effecting in a larger way.

     

    On Gold = Fear. Seems to be true. During last decade stocks didn't do much, up & down through crashes. Gold went up. So golds rise could possibly be related to fear. There was enough fear for retail not to be heavily into the stock market.

     

    The post budget debacle gold rise was because dollar went down, because foreign markets were hesitant to use the dollar with all the chaos surrounding it. That hestitation on the dollar as why dollar was going down, was a theme day after the debacle in SA & marketwatch streaming commentary. Gold goes up when dollar goes down. There's bound to be a bunch of other factors I'm not familar with, but this is at least one big one.

     

    @BSF
    Did you sell your (DUST)? Do you see problems holding it for several days (the leverage deterioration issue)?
    18 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Gold is normally used as a hedge, so if you think stocks will go down you might buy gold as a sort of insurance.

     

    Then there are the people that buy gold because they think it's the best investment.

     

    Most of my opinions on gold are from reading cnbc.com & other sources, like Forbes, WSJ etc.

     

    Commodity traders said gold went up on Thursday because of short covering. There was a big bet placed on gold tanking after the DC fight was resolved. Gold didn't tank - so shorts had to cover. Now the consensus is that due to future QE tapering, gold will continue to drift lower.

     

    Who knows really? Time will tell.
    18 Oct 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    The best answer I can give is buy some physical gold and silver then see if manipulation would have an effect on you. But lets put that aside. Would you want to gamble ( not invest) KNOWING the price of gold is manipulated?

     

    Then that leads to question what else is manipulated??

     

    Gold does not only go up vs fear. That is part of it but as the dollar loses it's value gold increases.

     

    Did we really have FEAR for those 10 years that gold rallied or did investors understand inflation, and QE'S having a negative factor on the value of our dollar ?

     

    BTW, Any reason you aren't playing along in the challenge??
    18 Oct 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    If I bought gold it's be a long term investment. So it wouldn't matter an ounce if it was manipulated. In 20 years the price will have changed from 20 years of change much more than a day to day blip. You're holding long term, so the manipulation isn't effecting you?

     

    Lots of things are manipulated. Hebbs mentioned a book from early 1900 about pump & dump that's still relevant today. Key is either riding the wave or side stepping, but not to blindly step into it. Anyone who thinks where there's money & power, there's no manipulation, has never heard of having lunch money taken.

     

    We had fear for 10 years. Polls are still showing that retail doesn't want into the market out of fear. Prices were going up before QE. As I mentioned, gold seems to move opposite to the dollar as a hedge. ...And there are more factors than one in the price movement. Fear may well be one of them for the last 10 years. US at war, world making a lot less sense & it didn't start out making much sense, the bizzareness of 9/11 & it's changing the world, housing that "always goes up" collapsing. When you raised the question, & I thought about it, I could spot fears in the last decade.

     

    I am playing in the challenged. I backed out of a lot of things recently.. and am not focusing on them (personal reasons). Also, I lost a lot not being in the market since May. I need to worry first about getting my own investments setup properly.
    18 Oct 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My last item for the evening. A comment from a group of investors I follow that may have some validity. YOU DECIDE !!

     

    "This item was brought to our attention by double guns on the QC. There is speculation that we may be entering a hyper inflationary environment. I'm continuing to add physical silver and increasing the cash allotted to it. The debt increased $328B dollars in one day.

     

    JP Morgan Chase has issued letters to its business account holders notifying them that as of November 17 the bank will limit all cash transactions, including deposits, withdrawals and ATM usage, to $50,000 per month, and will prohibit all outgoing international bank wires.

     

    Chase Bank has moved to limit cash withdrawals while banning business customers from sending international wire transfers. This has caused speculation that the bank is preparing for a looming financial crisis in the United States by imposing capital controls.

     

    We have seen this before in Cypress and Greece read more here.
    http://bit.ly/19Rp25D

     

    SMaturin on the QC contributed substantiation. http://bit.ly/19Rrrgu "

     

    Their forum has been around for a while now....Some pretty sharp people I might add.
    18 Oct 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Thoughts.

     

    Hyper inflation. The Fed would be thrilled if we entered regular inflation! There isn't enough tightening at this time for inflation to set in. It may start someday, but I'll rather invest for actual events now, not possible events not happening even around the corner.

     

    Chase bank... limiting... Probably for fraud protection reasons or practicality. Lots of banks for over three years now have been issuing these limits. When asked, it's always part of a form fraud program they've put in place.

     

    Infowars may have some smart folks, but it's a theory generating site. They goal is to generate ideas & explore possibilities. Not limit to conclusively likely ideas. He's rarely met a conspiracy theory he didn't like, according to Forbes: http://onforb.es/19fREst
    His program is syndicated by Genesis Communications, a radio network founded in 1998 by Midas Resources, a vendor of gold and silver coins.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls
    I read about Chase shutting down wire transfers of funds out of the US. Other large banks are expected to do the same. Looks like I will have to move up my schedule of opening an international account in the Caribbean or Central America and moving some money there.

     

    Their plan is to keep money captive in the US. It must mean that they are anticipating possible crisis conditions that would motivate people to want to get money out of the US. Also they just don't want your money leaving their bank.

     

    Were we supposed to have forgotten about the Cyprus insolvency already and the depositors "Bail-in"??
    18 Oct 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @JW

     

    .... or it means they don't want to deal with potential fraud from transfer requests to foreign banks created by relatives of those Nigerian cousins we all share. I've found banks don't want money leaving since that's their business, & their policies over many years reflect it.

     

    Nothing nefarious going on. They just require you to upgrade to a higher fee account in order to do more cash or wire out business.
    Forbes's article: http://onforb.es/1fG7UrH

     

    Cyprus limits were a policy put in place as result of visible insolvency. It wasn't banks sneaking in something.

     

    For me all the conspiracy & panic theories get in the way of reading the market in current time, and then investing well for it. ...do you find that these ideas add to your investment returns? What's been helpful?
    19 Oct 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    WOW....You seem to have developed into a serious and highly seasoned investor. Some of your recent comments seem to almost be from a financial advisor.

     

    I applaud you on all the knowledge you have obtained. Sure you weren't pulling our legs on being a newbie??? lol

     

    My opinion and concern is more in line with JW'S. I really don't think the banks give a hoot if we transferred money to our overseas Nigerian cousins. This move, if true, seems more dire.

     

    My 2 cent's..
    19 Oct 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls
    Some things, like survival and preservation of capital (what you own that you have worked for during your life) are of greater long term importance than investment returns for the next several months.

     

    You can be sure that currency controls will be coming and will be imposed on US citizens. We can't be used to bail-in the government if we have BAILED-OUT of the system (put our money elsewhere).

     

    All of us came from people who not many generations back, came from somewhere else, like Europe, Africa, or the Middle East. It is no crime to do what our great-great grandparents did when they left one place and came here, but only in reverse.

     

    If it is possible, it is a good idea to have some geopolitical diversification - having an asset presence in another place other than the US.

     

    To trade stock and investments requires a trading and investing mentality. The same mentality should be applied in evaluating the government you live under.

     

    You should determine if it is a "Buy" or a "Sell."

     

    It may be my country, but it is not my government. That is, they don't have my consent. The distinction I make is that the country and the government are two separate things.

     

    If you you cannot change a government by voting, then the other alternative is to "vote with your feet." I realize this thought does not even enter into the everyday Americans mind as an option.

     

    The "controls" (as in currency controls) have already been imposed on our thought process.
    19 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Thank you IT. I read & then repeat what advisors say, that make sense to me. So some of them must be wise. Meanwhile I did some short term moves & lost a bit. So I'm not feeling so smart. I need to go back to what I came to do in May -- adjust my long term setup. I have been very dumb for a number of months now. I left, but didn't get in at any of the obvious entry points -- I would be much better off by now. So not to smart. Definitely a newbie!!

     

    By Nigerian cousins, I was trying to say fraud. It's so often a long lost cousin in Nigeria who needs you to wire them money in those spam emails. Then sends a bank check that turns out to be frauduant weeks later & you're stuck. So I was trying to creatively say -- overseas wire transfers may be on high alert for fraud. That could well be the restriction motivation.

     

    I gave perfectly everyday-ish reasonable reasons for the Chase policies. So not need to go for the doom & gloom ones. When something simple explains things, it's usually the explanation.

     

    JW- thanks for letting me know your reasoning.

     

    The thing is - none of what you anticipate will happen in the next two months. Not likely in the next 6 months. It's down the road. So I'm investing for today. As time nears for adjustments for possible policies, there'll be some noises & room then to move. I expect that by new ways will be found to move forward. At some point it may explode in another big crash. Then a recovery will happen of some kind. But I have to decide under today's circumstances. Not the longer range future, that I can decide on as it moves into place.

     

    I need my money to grow in order to retire eventually. I can't afford to have it under the mattress for years, any more than I can afford to have it crash right before retirement. Both are real risks to include in that judgement of when to buy and sell... And what's best is different for each person.

     

    Agreed, diversification including foreign, is key in any portfolio. That's standard investing methods.

     

    If you want to leave the US for someplace else, that's cool. First, most places similar to the US suffer from the same problem -- it's run by humans. Second, the rest of the places are much worst to be in. Sometimes someplace else is a better fit for one's perspectives! Though, so many Americans are annoyed with this govt that it won't last forever.

     

    I don't know what's meant by currency controls. Right now, I can do lots with my money without anyone interfering. I have no accounts where I can't get my money quickly if I want to. Every time one of these restrictions notices arrives, I read it carefully to make sure I can get ALL my money out the same day if I choose. There is ALWAYS a way somewhere in the fine print. It's just the more everyday movements that are restricted, for practical reasons. If I begin to feel like there may be risk or runs on banks, I'll be sure to switch to only local so it's even easier. With Chase it's just their lowest tier business account that's restricted. Nothing else. To get more movement, you have move up a tier, & pay a fee only if you keep a low balance that wouldn't be bothered by those restrictions anyway at the lower tier (restriction only on over $50k). It's all nothing at all.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CURLS

     

    I actually knew what you meant about the fraudulent cousins we all receive emails from. I just don't get the feeling that the banks would go this drastic just to stop what has been going on for 20 years at least.

     

    I am also not convinced it is a doom and gloom position either. So I am hoping others can shed some light on it.

     

    Sorry to hear you lost money on your trades. It is tough trying to do short term trading. BSF and JBT have it right that holding dividend plays long term has always been the best way.

     

    HOWEVER , I am still of the opinion that we have a nice size correction coming so I will still sit out and lick my wounds knowing I may be missing out . FEAR is also correct so far and I wish he felt comfortable enough to come back and post here.

     

    He is gracious enough to control the portfolio for us, I believe some of us can still use his wisdom because as of now I have been wrong and maybe should dip my feet into the water besides my holding of (PSEC).

     

    But I have to admit some of your recent posts sounded more like Cramer the Curls.. lol
    19 Oct 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @IT

     

    I can't listen to Cramer. He starts spitting, & I can't hear what he's saying. That lost was big enough to hit me in the head, and get me more grounded back into myself. My old investing habits did well for 20 years. Looking now at the summer, I realize where I moved away from them & therefore what parts I want to bring back. So I'm not surprised my thinking seems a little different than it had.

     

    I'm still out of the market. I bought late yesterday a standard position, but sold at the end of the day. I still emotionally can't stand any loss (for purely emotional reasons I've told you in PM) and it dipped down most of the afternoon. Plus I'd like to see what Monday brings. While there a lot of room for bull here & this market doesn't seem to know how go down -- 1) there's room for some down days to balance the up so I want to see if Monday is the start of that. 2) there is still a possible correction coming. Not a crash though. ....

     

    I'm buying for 15 years or more, so short of a big crash, it doesn't matter if it goes down for while. I'll get dividends meanwhile.

     

    ....I think I figured it out. While the macro leaves one feeling flat about the market. The fundamentals on each stock aren't bad (even if it is with cost cutting at the moment), & the g'vt is working hard to keep the market up. Now Europe/EMs are doing better. So market is bulling while looking like that makes no sense. That's the key!!
    ...add that my observation in many years, is that for every crisis, a solution almost always appears even when it seems unlikely. So it's important not to let every crisis get into your head. The crisis are real, but most dissipate & or get kicked down the road -- till something unthought of (like new paradigms like technology or mass production) change everything so much, the problems don't matter any more as they were.

     

    On Chase - what the banks did wasn't remotely drastic. It's wasn't odd or notable. It's was just adjusting tiers & fees to make more money. Check out the Forbes article. It takes every concern and explains why it was implemented. The answers read like the fine print of practically every transaction (insurance, banking, charge card) I've ever done. (I tend to read the fine prints).

     

    Correction will have to be proceeded by some sense of negativity for several days about direction the market is taking (i.e. down days with a feeling of downness). Otherwise all the liquidity waiting for dips comes in & up it goes. So it has to shake the dip-waiters enough so they don't come in so fast. When it feels stupid to come in -- that's when it's time. I'm not sure any is coming with the Fed watching. They'll send some media person or make a political announcement, something, to keep it from tanking very much. And that's why this bull is hated. Movement is counter intuitive.
    19 Oct 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls- (not just Curls, but to whoever)
    Glad that your OK with me possibly leaving the US. Ha, ha.

     

    I just thought I would mention that "currency" or "capital" controls are when the government prohibits citizens from moving money outside the country. New laws going into effect are the beginning of the US Govt's strategy to control personal money and keep it in the US.

     

    The noose is tightening (laws going into effect 2104):

     

    FATCA forces you to disclose all accounts to the IRS and possibly withhold 30% of transactions.
    HIRE act if the one that may impose withholding on funds wired out to a foreign bank.

     

    Making plans to have assets out of the US and continuing to invest domestically is not an "either / or" mutually exclusive proposition for me. I can continue to invest while making contingency plans.

     

    Curls: here are two investments to consider since you are looking for something. Both are good quality equity Reits that have undergone hefty declines since May of this year (when Bernanke hinted that the Fed would cut back on QE).

     

    (O) Realty Income Corp,
    ... is one I bought a few weeks ago just under $40. It is now 41.86 after hitting 42.50. It bottomed around $39, after hitting a high of $55 in May. It now looks like it is initiating a new uptrend. It is a strong Reit that has been increasing its dividend regularly. It pays the dividend monthly- something a lot of people like.

     

    I am looking for a little bit of a pullback to just above $40 where I think I will buy another 100 sh.

     

    (UHT) Universal Health Realty Income Trust
    This is another quality equity Reit that has a history of increasing its dividend: it yields 5.8%. It too had peaked in May and sold off thru July with a final bottom in August, spending all summer bottoming as I wrote in a comment above; in the last two weeks UHT has shown an apparent breaking out of the bottom.

     

    I haven't bought it yet, but I am looking to buy after it hits $45 and pulls back to about $42.50. Since I work during the day now and can't watch price movements, I may just place a Good til cancelled (GTC) limit order to buy at $42.50 and just wait for it.

     

    There are recent SA articles about both 'O' and 'UHT' that you can find and read. They were both screened as quality Reits with a history of increasing the dividend.

     

    Pull up a 1 year Yahoo Finance interactive chart with a 50 day simple MA. You'll see the all summer bottom with the recent break above the 50 day MA.
    19 Oct 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    JW

     

    Thanks for the reit ideas! I've never owned a reit (I think they were new years ago when I was last investigating investing ideas.)

     

    They both sound very good, lots of positive. I'll need to do research. Do you have any negatives in mind for either of them? I've been wondering what part of the market got hit & assumed it'd all come back by now -- so that's a great heads up. Is there any reason they've been low? Is it basically all because they are interest rate sensitive, so the tapering sat on them?

     

    What is a reit anyway? Beyond a fancy name for a company.

     

    On the limits on foreign money movement, I'd bet that was the IRS seeing difficulties collecting as money was moved out of the country to escape taxes. I'd bet this was the brilliant way the same Congress that brought us this umm, "budget," aimed to solved that. You're supposed to check off a box on the schedule B about foreign accounts, and that's probably the spot they're trying to close in on those who don't "bother to." Again, I'm not inclined to nefarious global thoughts about it. Personally, if I wanted to move money out of the country, I'd probably store it in silver, travel with it & then sell & bank it. But that's a paranoid style.
    19 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls
    I would not move any metals through customs. They can take anything for any reason. You're right about Schedule B and the check box. But now you have to provide details about the account on a separate form that is required now.

     

    A REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) is a business model where the company elects to pass 90% of the net profits through to the share holders and then the company does not have to pay corporate income taxes. The shareholders pay the taxes.

     

    Equity Reits like (O) and (UHT) are non-leveraged and supposedly safer.. Mortgage Reits or mREITs are leveraged and more risky. They borrow short term money at low interest and then buy Mortgage backed securities that pay higher rates and earn the difference or spread between the short term borrowed money and the MBS rate.

     

    All REITs sold off sharply when Bernanke hinted about tapering the QE back in May. They got oversold by August. So the sell-off was triggered by interest rate "worries".

     

    Now there is a rebound in T-bonds and interest rates have backed down and are continuing down. This is making REITs look attractive:
    1. the yields are attractive now on equity Reits like O & UHT,
    2. They are still down about 24% from their highs.
    3.They are just now rising out of the bottom area. I am looking for a pullback (see comment above) from this first price rally from the bottom area.

     

    Negatives: Interest rates going back up sharply would be negative, but it appears they have stabilized and are even working lower. UHT is a health care/nursing property Reit, so demographics favor them. The economy would have to really turn down and hurt retail and commercial property values to hurt the Reits. If things just stay stable, Reits should do ok.

     

    You can keep an eye on the price movement on them with the chart view as I suggested above. Check out recent articles too. There were some articles that specifically covered these two. Comeback with any questions. Good luck

     

    JW
    19 Oct 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    JW

     

    Very helpful explanation.

     

    so these reits have an issue as a buy for long term -- eventually rates will normalize and they'll go down in price, & ask soon as tapering really does begin. Yet, they sound ready to enter stage 2, or the bounce back down after they have, with good payouts.

     

    There's always something. Maybe buy now, then sell later in the year or early next year before Yellen's confirmation or right after it (there'll be a general market move up with it). Then buy again after the tapering starts. ...or buy & hold long term because in 15 years, the market will move up and these prices will seem small.

     

    Definitely I need to dig up time to look closely at these... I'll be back if I have questions (don't I always)?!

     

    Sure you can move silver through customs. Wear it as jewelry, keep a jewelry bag in your suitcase. Also you can mail jewelry easily (in bulk). I know someone doing so for their jewelry business. Customs can't take anything they want. However, if you come through with bars of silver, it'd scream possible terrorist to them. So the new requirements beyond schB is to collect more taxes. I was wondering when that would show up -- the "be honest on these little boxes" seemed way too lax.

     

    Which brings up another topic -- how to record & pay tax on everything i've sold & bought and sold this year. I've done sch D before. Are there rules for first in, first out, and for daytrading type trades? If so, is there an easy explanation anywhere? I tried reading scottrades & decided a dictionary would be way more interesting, & re-able.
    19 Oct 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CURLS

     

    How do you think those 100 oz silver earrings would look? Maybe I can say were rappers ?? Think customs will buy that ??

     

    Just sayin>>>
    23 Oct 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I suggested NOT wearing jewelry, rapper style or otherwise.

     

    You can mail boxes of jewelry to the point that there's plenty of money in a box. I've seen it done & arrive multiple times for business. Besides it was mute, the regs turned out not to be restrictive, just required an upgraded account.
    23 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CURLS..

     

    "Sure you can move silver through customs. Wear it as jewelry,"

     

    YOUR words , not mine !!!!

     

    Maybe you need to read what you posted. You are confusing me..
    23 Oct 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I said more than "wear it as jewelry." Put together with the rest of my sentences, and my thoughts make a lot more sense than pulling one phrase out...lol.
    23 Oct 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I love this guy. He writes the best articles. Go to his profile & start reading. You will be a far better investor if you do

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Oct 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Curls
    For the mREITs that I have, both in the Portfolio challenge and in my account, I am holding them on the theory that they will rise to their 200 day MA (moving average). This may be a 2 month ride. This will be a resistance area, and they will have gained 10 or 15% by this point plus dividends. Then I will evaluate the market & the economy, but may sell them if it looks like they are stalling out. Then I may buy them back a little later at a lower price when they have drifted down to a natural support level.

     

    On a chart, like on Yahoo Finance you can do a 6 month chart, Add Simple 50 day & 200 day moving averages, (select under "Technical Indicators"). You will see that REITs such as O, UHT, and mREITS such as REM, AGNC, NLY, IVR, have risen above their 50 day MA. They did this earlier in Sept, but it was a premature move (the first attempt usually falls back).

     

    When they rise to the 200 day average then I would consider taking profits, unless they just blow right by it which would be unusual. You are right. If there is adverse interest rate action "normalization" -- or something, they could fall back. Have to watch that. A default would do it.

     

    So happens I am a RTRP (IRS Registered Tax Return Preparer). I am not practicing at this time, but I can tell you how to report stock or equity trades. I worked as a CSR at TaxACT in 2012. I will IM you with details how to do it.

     

    JW
    20 Oct 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Another informative article, that teaches you how to understand a balance sheet. When researching a company, always a must to look at the balance sheet. On CNBC.com, you can get a quick comparison of 4 years of balance sheets. Look up your stock's ticker symbol, then simply click on the tab "financials."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Oct 2013, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    BSF
    Looks like a good article explaining the fundamentals of the balance sheet. I will review.
    Thanks
    JW
    20 Oct 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I thank all of you for sharing how , where, and why you became better investors. Very valuable sites you folks are dishing out !
    20 Oct 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » VERY INTERESTING !!!

     

    HSBC sees gold price rebound, upgrades Barrick Gold, other miners

     

    HSBC upgraded its stock ratings on various gold mining companies, noting that recent weak stock performance has "opened up value again," demand for gold remains strong, lower prices are resulting in reduced supply.

     

    The firm expects gold prices to rebound again, bringing better value in some gold miners, particularly Barrick Gold (ABX +1.9%), Goldcorp (GG +2.1%) and IAMGOLD (IAG +3%), upgraded to Overweight from Neutral (I, II, III); it also raises Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM +0.4%), Yamana Gold (AUY +2%) and AngloGold (AU +0.3%) to Neutral from Underweight (I, II, III).

     

    HSBC, however, cuts Gold Fields (GFI +0.2%) to Underweight from Neutral, in part due to higher risk related to an SEC investigation.

     

    ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, PSAU, NUGT, DUST, GGGG, RING.

     

    Now the big question to ask is why?? Why higher demand when all seems so rosy ?? I THOUGHT this is when the prices would start to plunge...I just don't understand this at all...
    21 Oct 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    It was explained in MarketWatch or someplace this morning.... dollar is down.

     

    Gold reacts to fear, but also goes opposite dollar. Right now international upset is with the dollar for having flaky backers. So gold will be reacting to international reaction to dollar for the little while more than any other factor.

     

    It's why there are specialists in gold. It reacts to much more than opposite one other asset, or one emotion. It's as complex as forex exchanging, with added twists of reaction to blackswan, politics, also still has hold overs to it's many-faceted history.

     

    All while being mostly not the most useful commodity, so it doesn't have that stability factor.

     

    It's an underground form of money. Underground is never a straight path! Gotta go around those tree roots & underground streams & all that.

     

    P.S. can't even print it. Gotta have a pick axe & furnaces & land rights to get it.
    21 Oct 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @CURLS

     

    If you honestly believe that gold acts opposite the dollar then with all the QE'S devaluing the dollar shouldn't gold go higher??
    21 Oct 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    I didn't say gold is opposite to the dollar. I said it's effected by many things here (well through my whole comment):
    "It's why there are specialists in gold. It reacts to much more than opposite one other asset, or one emotion. It's as complex as forex exchanging, with added twists of reaction to blackswan, politics, also still has hold overs to it's many-faceted history."

     

    Currently there's an international fear over dollar. Put those two together & gold goes up. It makes sense. You asked about it's current moves. These are what I spotted. Do you think that's not it?
    21 Oct 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, I think you have it right. Basically no one has a clue:)

     

    The so called experts don't. When you can make a laundry list of reasons then any reason is covered. That is called covering you butt.

     

    I have my own reasons.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Job gain of just 148K in September; UE rate drops to 7.2%

     

    September Nonfarm Payrolls: +148K vs. consensus +180K, 193K previous (revised from 169K).

     

    Unemployment rate 7.2% vs. 7.3% consensus, 7.3% previous.

     

    Huh ???? We ONLY create 148k jobs yet the unemployment percentage drops? Ok, then how many more had to say "no mas" for that % to drop?

     

    Yup, hitting on all cylinders >>>

     

    QE lives to infinity !!
    22 Oct 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT, CURLS, BLUE, JW

     

    Been quiet for a while.. Any thoughts????????????
    23 Oct 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Well, even though I wasn't invited to comment probably because of my generic name, JW was proven right on (MORL) and is no doubt pleased (I am more relieved than anything else). I got my big divvy a couple of days ago and just sold out of the rest of the shares about ten minutes ago. Managed to get a slight profit which I don't consider too bad for three months of waiting, especially as it dropped like a brick after I bought it in late July.

     

    Last time I'm screwing with a 2x or 3x leveraged fund or note (until I make my next impulse buy). Too easy to catch herpes.

     

    Proceeds went into more VYM which buying/selling of is free with Vanguard and I'm playing it the way I am with VTSMX in the challenge.
    23 Oct 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    My computers been a mess for several days... I have to do the research still.
    23 Oct 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    How did you change your name?

     

    I remember you wanted to know some rules and opinions on authors, so I'll shoot you a message in a bit.
    23 Oct 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Just waiting for more divs to roll in so I can add to a position. I noticed $300.00 separates the two of us, and you've been so busy. ;)
    23 Oct 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    You know what really sucks? In my real-life 401k, the fees for having a distribution currently exceed the distribution itself.
    23 Oct 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Who you looking to catch? Not me !!
    24 Oct 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I'm just looking to make a decent buck. I hope everyone does well. :)
    24 Oct 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Just busting em...I wish I had the 100k to kick around like were doing:)
    24 Oct 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » USER

     

    I am sorry I forgot to include you. I actually did want to put your name on this list. I just had an old timers brain fart. Congrads on your gains as it is hard to decide when to lock in profits..

     

    Glad you included this comment for all to see..
    23 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Just messin' IT,

     

    I bought a chunk of MORL back in July a couple of days After the ex-date. I figured that the price would have dropped like a brick (it did) due to the jumbo dividend paid out that month and then I would collect the smaller dividend for a couple of months and get the jumbo dividend in Ocotober and hopefully a corresponding rise in price.

     

    So I bought @ 20.50. A couple of weeks later it dropped to around 16. I wept. I did as planned, collected my dividends, and prayed. I put a limit in for my original buy price as I decided I was damned if I was going to compound dividends into a note that essentially states in the prospectus that UBS can liquidate the note if the price drops too low.

     

    I lucked out today - it hit my limit price for what I bought it for. My only profits were the divvies - $0.99 per share over three months. So about 5% for the quarter, and about 20% for a year. I can't handle that volitility, going back to slow and steady.

     

    ed - Actually, I was going to make a more disgusting comment than the last one that I find to be highly witty, but realizing that readers have different backgrounds and sensitivity levels, I will omit it. Even though I really, really want to write it.
    23 Oct 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » USER

     

    Oh, go ahead a write it !! No one is THAT sensitive after what has been bantered here for quite a while... lol
    23 Oct 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Leveraged funds can be good, but can act up like the Hooker Who Didn't Get Paid...
    23 Oct 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That was disgusting?? lol
    23 Oct 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    @ User

     

    Sorry to hear you sold out of MORL. You might weep again as I think it is just getting started. I bought at 19.85 and have almost 4% gain in 3 days - I expect some good upside. Watch. Tomorrow, it will probably gap higher and gain about $1.00. I Own 200 sh for real too.

     

    The leverage is why I like it here.
    23 Oct 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    this market is making me nervous - especially when it went up yesterday on the bad jobs report

     

    time to take some profits & increase your cash stash?

     

    can't figure out if 2014 will be better economy wise or not

     

    so far looks like Christmas retail might be in trouble

     

    anyone watching (TSLA)? lol

     

    how about (NFLX) another one you should sell now
    23 Oct 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    It's going to be either bull or sideways till the taper word comes out again, as long as earnings aren't dismal. Unless an overseas events triggers a down turn for a little bit, but that will be short lived if Europe/EM/Asia is not a reversal to recession or completely terrible.

     

    I went back into the market with 1/6th my funds. I'm wishing I'd stuck with 1/12 and not bought IWM yesterday - impulsive buy & should have waited till today.

     

    I'm going to stay out (except for if specific stocks look good) for a couple weeks (unless there's an obvious bull). Just a sense that all this rallying will lead to a couple weeks of downturn. It's a little overbought, looking for an excuse.

     

    Meanwhile though, there's no tapering coming, earnings are okay (not stellar but not bad). Yellen is considered a dove. Any downturn will bring out an annoucement of some kind from someone to prop it up. So it will bull or sideways overall.

     

    Back during the post shutdown rally, I got a sense of a bigger correction coming. I'm trying to get a gut read on whether that's coming or it will be just a little dip. If it is, it will be a little dip that bounced back, -then- first does a nice downturn.

     

    That's my read on it. ...we'll see... I'm certainly not some kind of expert.

     

    I was thinking earlier that DUST is low. It's popped since then. But maybe a good trade buy? I'm not risking it, but any thoughts?

     

    I'm also not playing with (TSLA) & (NFLX). They are over valued for current numbers. If their model starts to work... it will be a slower climb based on profits not "potential", but that's when I'll get in.
    23 Oct 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My take is bad news in the economy is actually good news for those afraid of tapering. I just can't believe that no one seems to point out what the dire consequences are of the FED'S buying...

     

    Additionally I just posted in another article that the closer we get to the election for the POTUS the less likely we will taper. Does anyone think 16 months before the election a market correction will look good?

     

    Kicking the can down the road will eventually end and YELLIN will be under orders IF UE hits that 6.5% threshold to say that was only a possibility of tapering, that other factors are also involved. Here is something I just read..

     

    "Labor market softening. Why taper at all?

     

    Tapril? Banks quickly ratchet back their expectations for the taper initiation with the previously aggressive Barclays now not expecting it to start until March. Goldman is in agreement. On top of weakish economic data are the distortions caused by the government shutdown - meaning no "clean" numbers until at least December.

     

    "Why bother taper at all," asks Deutsche's U.S. rate strategist Dominic Konstam. The labor market is exhibiting "late cycle" tendencies and has only a 50/50 chance of persisting much beyond 2015, he says. This gives the Fed just a "narrow window" to taper before another economic slowdown hits.

     

    Given the taper delay and possible permanent postponement, he thinks 2.25% is a reasonable target for the 10-year Treasury (which this morning has dropped to 2.5%).

     

    Treasury ETFs: SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX. "

     

    Now we have oil prices declining. Any one have any thoughts why? It usually means less demand which leads to a recession. But I would appreciate others giving their view..

     

    Thanks !
    23 Oct 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    " I just can't believe that no one seems to point out what the dire consequences are of the FED'S buying..."

     

    It's in the timeline. Like Tampat had said, just because it's bad for the future, doesn't mean he won't gain from the current market's movement up.

     

    It's consequences down the road are irrelevant to judging whether to be in the market now (is the idea behind this bull).
    23 Oct 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So you have the timeline figured out then?? That's great because many of us don't.

     

    Tell us when you expect the markets to turn.. I love when I hear something is irrelevant but then read a person only invested 1/6th of their funds and now states that maybe 1/12th would have been better.

     

    Which way do you want to play? Aggressive, conservative, or not at all?
    23 Oct 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    @IT

     

    You're mixing up parts of what I wrote. I'm 1/6 in because of the short term mini-correction from the rally. Nothing remotely to do with tapering.

     

    I don't have timeline figured out, and don't give a timeline. But I am certain it won't be till Dec at the earliest, and not till early next year is more likely that tapering starts. As for the dire consequences, that's in -the future- a few years from now, not as soon as tapering starts. It's "consequences," not immediate reactiveness. By then something could change & it will not be a problem - that's almost always how the market's worked since I've been in it for over 20 years.

     

    I'm not comfortable with how doomy all this is. It gets in the way of investing & gaining. The world will end, and there may be disaster at any moment or eventually - or not. But the best way to prepare, is to do well while get the getting is good. I'm a cautious personality. But you have to do it with calculations & figuring, not straight concern.
    23 Oct 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "I don't have timeline figured out, and don't give a timeline. But I am certain it won't be till Dec at the earliest, and not till early next year is more likely that tapering starts. As for the dire consequences, that's in -the future- a few years from now,"

     

    So tapering is the deciding factor when this market run is over? Oh, and I also just think you kinda gave a timeline above..

     

    Just trying to understand your posts more clearly that's all.. Not picking on it. Hope you understand that.. You seem to be very bullish in your comments but bearish on your investment exposure.. So I am confused as to which way you are leaning.

     

    To me you are sitting on the sidelines while all the so called "easy money" is being made. Am I correct? Why?
    23 Oct 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Do you disagree with my statements?

     

    It does read like you're "challenging" them for the sake of challenging. Do you disagree with anything? I gave my thoughts extensively. It wasn't about tapering -- I gave various reasons for why I expect bull or sideways. I didn't give "a timeline." I gave a short blip.

     

    So let's talk specifics. What is your view on the points I raised, not as a challenge but just what do you see as the factors? And how do they play out? What timeline do you see, where do you see it as impossible to guess. If it's that the market can crash anytime -- that's always possible -- but then you shouldn't be investing in the market ever. So, I had been wondering, why are you so interested in the market, when as you've said in the past, it's largely not the right vehicle for you?
    23 Oct 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I see a market with very low daily volume. I see retail investors scared. I see manipulation in the metals.

     

    We have seen some very different and unusual reactions over the last year. I hate when timelines are used as all of us are clueless when the markets will, if they do, reverse.

     

    I feel the rich are making out like bandits right now. I saw gold tick upwards BEFORE no taper was announced. Most invest for the long haul and I do not see happy trails ahead right now.

     

    We have a dysfunctional government, a POTUS who is spineless. Market movers who don't even try to hide what they are doing. FLASH CRASHES, etc.

     

    So when I see comments that people have figured out how to day trade I just get nervous. You might as well just throw out all logic and just bet.

     

    Some of your comments seem to include so many variables, so many different directions short term, that quite honestly you might blow a fuse. You will never figure out what you cannot control.

     

    Others are doing that. Just look and gold and silver...

     

    My interest are far from just the stock market. I am worried about this country as a whole. Where we are headed. What will my daughter be left to deal with.

     

    So please don't take it personal but I feel obligated to point out confusion within a post.
    23 Oct 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    "Some of your comments seem to include so many variables, so many different directions short term, "

     

    Not they don't. Besides I asked you to tell me -your- perspective on the same elements, instead of commenting at mine.

     

    " I feel obligated to point out confusion within a post. "
    I'm not confused. My posts are consistent. Also, I don't want to spend me time having things pointed out to me. I'm much more interested in other people expressing their views, so I can do my own comparisons.

     

    " I am worried about this country as a whole. Where we are headed. What will my daughter be left to deal with"
    Thanks for explaining. I didn't know that. I'm not concerned about where we are headed -- or more accurately, I'm not up for discussing it. I need for myself to focus on the market itself in the current, to figure out my plan for myself on it. It's been a tough year for me, & I don't have the energy for the macro stuff at the moment, except how it influences my investing plan.

     

    Who figured out how to day trade?

     

    Well that helps me understand your perspective & concerns. Someone's got to worry about them, so glad you are.
    24 Oct 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Be careful what you buy as always, look for stocks that are great companies with low valuations. This means a low PE. Check out (IBM) (MCD) (LMT) (WMT) (TGT) all stocks with low PE ratios but very good earnings per share, EPS. You can see the data on CNBC.com

     

    If you buy a company that is overvalued (high PE ratio) then you risk losing money on that stock because sooner or later, the market will push the stock price down. See what happened to (KMB) Kimberly Clark this year. The stock was over valued, corrected down and just recently the stock price has been going up. When you see a stock like (LO) Lorillard get punished too severely (worry over the gov't regulating menthol cigs) then that's an opportunity to buy.
    23 Oct 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Strangely, I own a lot of tobacco & beer stocks. Nope, don't smoke & although a good beer with a brat is nice once in awhile red wine is my preferred drink. Except when I'm depressed about the market, then anything will do to ease the pain! lol

     

    Anyhow, my sin stocks have done great. (BUD) (STZ) (LO) & (MO) all good earners. The donut stocks are down a little today, but overall (DNKN) and (KKD) have hit the spot. (MCD) needs to do better, but I actually do like their wraps & smoothies.

     

    (SBUX) has done extremely well, just bought it in Jan. 2013.

     

    You don't want all your stocks in the eat, drink & smoke department but you can do well with these stocks.
    23 Oct 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    IT oil is going down due to less demand. Apparently, people drive more over the summer while taking vacations.

     

    Cheaper gas is good for us, and look oil was $80 bucks not too long ago.

     

    Perhaps people can no longer afford to drive their cars - could be another reason.

     

    If Christmas is bad this year, then to me that means people are not doing well & that is going to make me worry a lot more.

     

    So go out & drive your car to the mall & buy something!!!! Stop by (MCD) (DNKN) (KKD) and don't forget your smokes (LO) (MO) and how about some brewskies (BUD) ; D
    23 Oct 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Gotta agree that those wraps are good! Now I read that Micky D'S will be offering a salad instead of fries with their value meals..

     

    They have to try and get to a more healthy menu as the prices are getting close to other chains that aren't fast food ones either.

     

    I have a chain called Friendly's in NY ,and you being from NJ might have or know about them. I get to sit down, be served better food, and almost pay the same if you use their coupons.( which I am not ashamed to say we do !).

     

    So they have to do something different as I have met plenty of people who go LESS to the fast food chains today as they are getting pricy. You use to get change back from $10 bucks for 2 people. Now you have to swing out a $20 to get change...

     

    Now you hit on another point that people are driving less too ! I have friends who do less window shopping and also combine their driving to hit as many errands as they can at the same time. We all know we have to pay for gas. But for those on a tight budget some concessions have to be made..
    23 Oct 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Friendlys is a good place to eat. The young kids (like my son) seem to think McDonalds is the only place to eat - sad!

     

    You're right IT, we should be worried about what is happening in the gov't. But you know what, I've come to the conclusion it's no worse nor better than it ever was. So I'm just going to watch the stock market & not the politics so much. I have a good reason for this. The fact that the politicos in DC cannot work together bothers me a lot. Then you have some wackos that think a compromise is a defeat. They want to tear down the gov't . If they are successful then all your fears will come true. The stock market will fall over 40%. We will lose everything, including the trust in our ability to do the right thing that it's taken since 1776 to build. So thank you tp for making all our nightmares come true.

     

    Just My Opinion. If we don't work together then nothing will change or ever get done. There is so much to be do, with tax reform as a starter.

     

    Again, if the ACA is so awful it will implode on its own.

     

    As a woman, I do have one wish. It involves having the next president be a woman. And I expect it to come true in 2016.
    23 Oct 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF...

     

    Not sure if the Tea Party is to blame. This deficit has been building for years and MAYBE Bernanke was better off letting us fall into a recession then doing what he started ..

     

    I firmly believe he thought by now things would have improved. That is my nightmare. I know that fighting between party's has been an ongoing theme. But the FED playing a game of Russian Roulette concerns me.

     

    We have never been down this road before so no one knows the end game. Maybe it is because I have paid more attention to politics and the markets since my car accident, maybe this has always gone on. I just get the feeling this is different.

     

    A bookie doesn't mind you winning a few times as a new gambler. He hands over you money with a smile knowing that long term he might own your house!!

     

    Is that going on now with our markets? Easy money isn't easy long term. Something's gonna give. I wish I knew what and when it is/was...

     

    I ALSO HOPE I AM WRONG!!

     

    Remember NOTHING has been agreed on. They just kicked the can down the road again.. No budget, no debt ceiling, Obama care is still a mess. Give me a break on unemployment actually dropping. No new jobs being created monthly to just keep up with recent grads...It's gotta catch up to corp. bottom lines .

     

    In fact it already has. Who ever thought Micky D would have bad numbers?? Let's see how far this disease gets to grow before we can stop it..

     

    My 2 cent's...
    23 Oct 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    BSF
    I work in a field where I am more aware of the implementation of ACA than most people. You are correct in your statement that "...it will implode on its own." Without going into details, what you said is an understatement. Few will complete an application, and of those who do ....

     

    I predict you will start to hear stories of people who completed an application and had plans with premiums quoted to them that were as high as 25% of their income. They won't buy, and as you say it will implode.

     

    Who will Obama blame?

     

    --A Woman President? - Okay with me, but I will not be able to handle 2016 presidential tickets where the candidates have the last name of Bush - {Rep}, or Clinton - {Dem}. The system is so bad that this could happen. I would like to have all of the current group of "leaders" thrown out.

     

    Isn't it time for a viable third party that repudiates the leadership of both of these two parties that have driven us into the ditch?

     

    IT:

     

    "Who ever thought Micky D would have bad numbers??"

     

    --Maybe people are finding out what's in Mac chicken nuggets. 50% or less chicken meat. The other 50%, you don't want to know.
    http://bit.ly/1a1PPfx

     

    Does the CEO of MCD eat Big Macs and chicken nuggets?
    23 Oct 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    They taste good.

     

    MCD will do fine, regardless of what is in their products.
    24 Oct 2013, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    They really have 50% chicken? I would have guessed less after I tasted them. Wife bought me a small pack of chicken McNuggets , and I eat almost anything without complaint.

     

    Those I actually fed to the birds. I even said to her this isn't chicken. But I still eat hot dogs and god knows what's in those !!

     

    Oh BTW I saw the CEO of MCD at Burger King ..
    24 Oct 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TIME TO MOVE ON, GREAT INFO IN THIS CHAPTER. I WOULD KEEP IT BOOKMARKED...MY 2 CENTS !

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Already opened with a question....
    24 Oct 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
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