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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! PORTFOLIO #8.......  137 comments
    Oct 2, 2013 9:20 PM




    What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.

    We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...

    Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.

    Here is the current link to our BLOG CHAPTER !

    The chapters continue to advance so this may not be the latest one. Please just look at the bottom of the chapter for the next link !!

    As of now we have a small group of investors nervously playing a game. It is ONLY a game but as I have learned that if it is a competition and we do keep standings people take it seriously. I am happy to see this as I am learning while I lose money ( fiat of course, or monopoly money ) lol

    But as we progress we are changing rules to make it fairer and more competitive. I have been received messages from all with your ideas and it is your game as well. So please feel free to add whatever thoughts you have. I hope over time other will join as we are still at the beginning stages.

    I urge all to post on other articles and blogs what you like about our chapters and challenge in hopes others will either follow or join in the conversation. So keep posting when you trade why you trade for all to see the reasoning. Good luck to all !!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (137)
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  • Author’s reply » OK , Lets see what the markets do as this shutdown continues!!
    2 Oct 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Please purchase 100 shares of (LDOS)
    3 Oct 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • I would like to add 100 more shares of (LDOS)
    3 Oct 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Please sell all of my BITA at the close today and buy 1,000 YOKU.


    Thank you! :-)
    4 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @KRUSTY


    Can you do please do me a favor and bracket your trades ? You have been doing well so i would like people to just be able to click on the symbol and see what you are doing.


    4 Oct 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • No problem.
    4 Oct 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • please add 100 shares of (RSP) at Monday's open . Thanks
    6 Oct 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Please sell:


    1,000 shares Vale, S.A. (VALE) at opening tomorrow morning.
    I will hold as cash until I can regroup.


    Thank you-


    Go Eagles! Go Pirates!


    6 Oct 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • To whom it may concern:
    I held 1000 shares of (SAI) before the record date for their split transaction. That means with the reverse split of 1 for 4, I ended up with 250 shares of (LDOS) and 142 shares of SAIC. So using these prices, it was approximately a $16,000 initial investment, with current holdings of 11,520 (@46.09) in (LDOS) and $4980 for SAIC (@32.76), for a sum of $16,500 or so. This caused a discrepancy in my current sales or holdings in the amount of nearly $ 5000.00 if I have researched this correctly.Please advise,thanks.


    This does not involve the additional 100 shares of (LDOS) I added at a later date.
    6 Oct 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • I'll trust you - how many shares of which stock should you have, and what would be your 'purchase price' of each? Splits such as the one SAI did are above my pay grade.
    6 Oct 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John for your help.
    7 Oct 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • 142 shares of SAIC should have been dispersed in cash @ $32.76 pershare if I have it right. $4651.92 .
    7 Oct 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Aster the close today (Monday please do the following in my account...


    sell (SUNS) 170 shares
    sell (AFOP) 200 shares
    sell (VGR) 250 shares


    buy (DLN) 70 shares
    buy (PSLV) 500 shares
    buy (DENN) whatever I can with remaining cash


    7 Oct 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • If anyone cares, the reasoning behind my three new purchases are..


    (1) I am considering buying about 70 shares of DLN in real life so I
    want to see how it does for a bit
    (2) I am looking for silver to do better over the next several months
    so I am adding to my position in PSLV
    (3) Dennys is just a good consistent company. Chart looks
    good and its on the rise so I thought it would be a good one
    to add
    7 Oct 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • @richonsilver


    What is your rationale behind (DENN) purchase?


    7 Oct 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • More importantly, is Tony Gwenn still endorsing them?
    7 Oct 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Buying $19,809.69 of VXX at the open tomorrow. Tying to cover myself, I think....


    Cash balance should be zero following purchase.


    Thank you.


    7 Oct 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • I will join with Deercreekvols...
    Please buy $4,500 worth of (VXX) at the open tomorrow.
    7 Oct 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics,


    I feel that I am in good company on this purchase. Thank you!


    Have a great day.
    8 Oct 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tomorrow AM open:
    Sell 300 (SGAPY) Singapore Telecommunications Ltd


    Tomorrow at Market Close:
    Buy 300 (IVR)


    8 Oct 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Please sell 3000 SPXU at the open today.
    8 Oct 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Back to plan A.
    Please purchase $60k worth of SPXU at the close today.
    8 Oct 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • @ FP


    I'm thinking between the Yellen appt this evening & two days of bigger downs... tomorrow will at least start with a run up. Already after hours SPY is up a little bit (and I think a few others - but I don't remember well.) Stock futures are green as well, though by morning they sometimes change.


    Of course what do I know? I could be a great contrarian signal for all I know!


    I wish I'd bet on (DUST) later this afternoon. I was out. I picked up a small amount of (TZA) downward movement today. I'm hoping to build some courage to go for more...
    8 Oct 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, I agree with you Curls ... If I had known about the Yellen appt before the close, I would not have gone short on the close.


    I also thought the market would be up today after the down the previous day.. I played that wrong too... The way things have been going, I am beginning to think I am also a great contrarian signal...
    8 Oct 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • I just spotted a comment from SA user that I think's pegged it...


    "Maybe there were indications of a serious market drop tomorrow - 300+ Dow points, and they needed to play this trump card now to at least buy another day or two for possible CR/debt resolution. Markets might still drop tomorrow but maybe not as much.


    Otherwise you think they would keep this "in the hole" to use for an X-mas rally kickoff sometime in November. "
    By @Mobyss on


    So Focalpoint, your short might work! I'd guess market up at first... and this crowd's been so bullish, it may just continue. But with the political environment, it may just dip down later in the day. ...this will be a good measure of how much taper chatter is still effecting the market (not taper itself, the chatter).


    I'm also thinking the current investors are the more risk willing & more savvy. The retail that comes into a bull, hasn't yet. So I think that's why their less rattled on noise (goes up when it seems like it ought to do more down), and small caps (which require more research) are doing well... Just a theory.
    8 Oct 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • At the close, please sell 1,640 (SPXU)
    At the close, please buy 1,000 (UWTI).
    9 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • At the open, please sell all shares in (SPXU), and (VXX)
    Please buy (SPXL) with the proceeds of those sales.
    10 Oct 2013, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » At the open please sell all of my shares of (PSEC) and buy as many shares of (SPXL) as possible!


    Back to my casino play !!
    10 Oct 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hey guys.


    I just got in and received this PM from Focal. Can someone check on the opening price of what we bought today (SPXL)


    "Hi Bill


    The opening price we got was 47.27.
    Yahoo shows it at 47.20.
    If you Google it you get 47.17."


    10 Oct 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Checked on Morningstar and Bloomberg, and both concur with $47.20. Changed to reflect that.
    10 Oct 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you for checking John.


    Just in case anyone thinks I am trying to game the system, the open price originally entered in the spreadsheet was 47.27. That price was not correct. The open price posted on Yahoo was 47.20. The open price that came up when I Goggled using this search string "spxl open price" was 47.17.


    I asked that the price be checked. I also checked with the ultimate authority, the exchange. 47.20 was the correct open price. So Yahoo, Morningstar, and Bloomberg's open prices were correct.
    10 Oct 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • It's weird how they can't all get their infos straight. I usually wait until 10:00am (CST) to enter trades, because they all start to gel with the same number around then. My brokerage (Tradeking - I'm poor white trash, haha), often has the wrong opening price listed all day long. :)
    10 Oct 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JBT


    It's tough to all be on the same page when you are manipulating prices:) Just sayin...
    10 Oct 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Please add 100 SHARES of (SLV) AT OPEN Thanks.
    10 Oct 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • I like when our children politik play nicely together in the sandbox. I need to make a sale from my real portfolio, and have been deterred by the government shenanigans. Hopefully they'll have a real breakthrough soon, so I can sell my stock and pay some bills. :)
    10 Oct 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • At the open, please sell (SPXL) and with the proceeds buy (UWTI) . It's an issue of upside... Oil dropped overnight. I think there is more upside and less risk with the leveraged oil play than with the leveraged market play.
    11 Oct 2013, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • (PGH) goes Xdiv on Oct 18 for .04 @ share:



    11 Oct 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Please sell all of my shares in (SPXL) at the close today and buy as many shares possible of (PSEC).


    11 Oct 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Query for IT and Focal,


    Do you guys use the leveraged funds in real life? I did very well with TZA in late 2011 until I didn't - took about six months to get even close to breakeven. That's about when I decided to concentrate on boring but high yield.


    If you do use them, then how to you go about trading them? Momentum on the index they're based on?


    Which reminds me, what happened to Dr. K? He seemed to be the one who specialized in this type of stuff.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @USER


    In real life I do not. Too much of gambling at high stakes for me. Financially I can not afford a huge loss and my heart can not accept these wild swings:)


    Me thinks the DR. is trying to figure out what wave he is on??
    11 Oct 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Yup. Can't take that even though the profits could be awesome (personal experience is that the losses can be awesome as well). I still mull this over though. I remember a bit from statistics class and the reversion-to-mean bit and standard deviations stick in my head. Probably because some of the authors I read on SA reference it once in awhile.


    I've been experimenting a bit in real life with scratch-off tickets. The problem is you're betting against the house, so if you manage to come up even with any purchase you're technically ahead. That said, the odds of the tickets I've bought over the last week are 1 in 4 for winning anything.


    The first batch I bought over the weekend had one free ticket out of twenty. I bought the same number of tickets yesterday and started scratching this morning. I've already covered yesterday's purchase price and have four more to scratch. I'm not sure where I"m going with this (other than than the poorhouse), but I'm wondering if there might be a way to apply this to a leveraged etf?


    Now, this fellow wrote a compelling article over a year ago:



    The problem is that if you have followed his writings since, he's been wrong. I mean way wrong. But if what I recall from statistics class matches up with what he's been arguing, then at some point he will be right. But how much money will his arguments make you vs. how much money you will have lost by being wrong over a good amount of time?


    Now compare his argument with what I've been doing in the challenge:



    This one's pretty simple - pick a very broad range index fund or etf and stay in it until it crosses a pre-determined moving average. If it does, stay in a cash-equivalent until it moves back above the previously-mentioned moving average. The idea being that you miss much of the market's downside and get most of the market's upside.


    What I'm wondering is if there is some way to combine the two strategies. Play the standard deviations / bollinger bands and have the momentum going for you. And utilize a leveraged etf for the process?


    When's the challenge end? Next August? If we're still going, I may try a variation on this.


    Sorry, just finding ways to keep from vacuming and cleaning the kitchen...
    11 Oct 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • @User 7


    Seems tempting to get out as it's going down, and back in as it's going up. If it hovers at the line, you can pay a lot in commissions. Otherwise, it seems to make sense. You've stopped your losses at a particular point. So either you gain as it goes up, or you don't lose more. Hum. Have you thought it threw more? Problem too, is getting in. If you set that as your line, you can go back & forth for a while before it climbs.


    I'm curious what you did when you traded? Did you figure out any techniques? I'm in process of getting back into my usual layout & not doing quick day trading, maybe some swing trades. Still, I figured a few things out, and I'm curious what worked for you. Also, when you didn't do well, how did it happen? Was it, multiple trades, or one day -- Dumb luck with timing; not sticking to what you'd figured; mood of the market changed? To get back to even did you keep using leveraged but changed something?


    Hope your current plan is serving you well!!
    18 Oct 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Curls,


    Hello again! It's Friday! Off work! I am far from an expert in this type of stuff, so take what I say with a grain of salt. As far as the moving average strategy goes, I'm comfortable with it. Right now VTSMX, the Vanguard Total fund I have in the challenge and my 401k is above the simple 300 day moving average. I also am trying this with a smaller amount of money in VYM in my Roth.


    More importantly, I think, is that the moving average continues to climb and hasn't starten to flatten yet. If it starts to flatten or slow down you can bet I'll be paying a lot more attention to the fund's price.


    Check out this chart:



    Play around with it and overlay the 300 day sma. Lengthen the chart back to October 2006.


    If I had been using Nat Stewart's strategy at the time for this fund (I did own the fund at the time but was in school so decided to squat in the corner and cover my eyes), I would have first moved to cash late in 2007. I wouldn't have gotten back in the fund until later in 2009. So I would have gotten out at around 35 and back in at 26 or so. Looks like the fund dropped below 18 in early 2009.


    And each year since, except this one, I would have gotten briefly kicked into cash. But by following the rules, I would have shortly been back in the fund and riding the market higher. So, I'm cool with this strategy as it fits what I have available in my 401k and would have provided a good amount of protection during the 08-09 meltdowns.


    The Bollinger Band/Standard Deviation bit (Joseph Stuber) I haven't tried or experimented with as the charts I have run (especially this year) indicate to me that although reversion to the mean will happen, there's no guarantee of When it will happen.


    I could probably play around and figure out some way to overlay the two strategies that might back test well in different markets, but I spend too much time reading this site as it is and would rather keep things kind of sorta simple to allow more free time for leisure activities. I don't have enough money saved to make this my full time job, no matter how interesting it is!


    As far as my brief trading experience: If I'm remembering correctly, in summer of 2011 I was mulling over moving average crossovers. Then I found out there were such things as 3x long or short funds. I looked at a chart of TZA (the short) and the 50 day was about to cross the 200 (August). I bought some, put in a limit order for a 30% gain and two days later hit it.


    Wow! I'll be rich in no time! Right? Right. So a few weeks later I did the same with TNA (the long) and made some more money. I expected at the time that things would go bad or at least flatline for the economy (mostly because of reading doom articles on this site that I had recently discovered), so the next time the crossovers got close I bought TZA again. And the market started going up again until the spring of the next year. I held the shares as I would have lost quite a bit of money if I sold, and hoped for a miracle.


    I managed to sell in May when the market went south again. So, the end result was that I broke even (a little less than even) many months later after my initial monstrous gains in just a couple of weeks. And that was real money, which I shouldn't even have been trading with at the time. And I consider myself lucky for getting out with a fairly small loss.


    If I was to do it again, I would use moving averages of some type or another on the underlying index, not the leveraged funds. I would trade the long leveraged funds only, not the shorts. Unless that 300 day average I like started to go into a downtrend on the underlying index, then I would consider the short funds.


    I believe the reasons I failed doing this were because I got giddy from the initial experiment to the point where I hadn't thought it through enough and not having a disciplined set of conditions/rules - to - blindly - follow - no - matter - what written down.


    I also discovered that while I'm willing to take a gamble once in a while, I'm much happier getting some type of dividend routinely than by making a bet that may pay off big or cause a big loss.


    I use a different strategy in my taxable account. Right now I get dividends every two weeks - not much because I don't have that much money or that many positions, but it's nice to see a few dollars show up in your account when the prices of the funds and stocks you own are going down (like during the recent gubmint shutdown bs).


    If you hover over my profile, I do indeed write an instablog (more like a personal journal) of what I intend to buy into each month and what I'm trying to do. It kind of sucks because you can't tell how many people have even looked at it as opposed to articles except by comments. And I have one comment so far since I started doing this (thanks, JW).


    If you, or anyone else would care to read some and leave a critique or question (barring threats or insults, which I can easily exceed and may actually act upon) then I would be grateful.
    18 Oct 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • @User7


    Thank you -- that was fascinating!


    I found an article that using a movement idea similar to what you suggest. Though I found LeftBanker's comment at the bottom of the page important too.


    I'm trying to start tracking who's bull & bear in articles, so I can know if someone's assessing in real time -- or has a permanent viewpoint.


    On lotto tickets, there are definitely better ways. It's like with insurance. Actuaries set it up, so unless you happen to be the tiny number who gets lucky, you will lose. I noticed it most clearly on extended warrantees on electronics. I'd calculate what's likely vs. their price... and it was almost always cheaper in probabilities to skip it. The exception was when screens were covered (or large screen TV), where the breaking risk goes up. Which is why most plans stopped covering it. Unless the data going into the actuary work is inaccurate, the spread will be big & the house will win. On lottery the data is just how many tickets will sell. They fixed that risk by holding over the prizes from week to week, & it's a fixed amount of prizes per count of tickets coming in (income.) It's completely luck. It's why in investing the experts give the advice that the secret to good money is finding investments where you have a better read on the data, before it's generally known & popular. That can be through excellent research to uncover data before others, or better judgement of the data that everyone has.


    You've got a great point, of buying long in leveraged when the market is going long overall. I can't believe you had the patience to hold for 6 months. Though the prior big wins likely helped make it feel better :). I suspect that many people come to the market, do a bit of gambling then lose a bit big. Then give up on the quick money & move to more stable investments. And very few people talk about it.


    I have no sense of using the MAs like you did. I don't have courage to try for trends like that. Apparently -- it's quite risky. At least it's not like options where timing is another element you have to hit. With this one, you could wait.


    I have come up with some rules on short term movements. Also, it is hard because you have to develop rules, and then apply them quickly & consistently. Longer term, you can mull it over, and hope that at some point a bull gives you a ride. (I'd like to share on "rules" but I've got to eat lunch!!)


    Do you find SA is more doom than other sites out there? I'm curious on that.
    19 Oct 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Curls,


    Yup. Lotto tickets are a bad idea, no matter how much I enjoy the crossword ones. What can I say? I enjoyed uncovering the letters and spelling "ooze".


    You could easily sum up what I wrote about my leveraged fund trading as "I didn't know what I was doing and got lucky my first time and was lucky several months later that I wasn't completely wiped out".


    I'd like to think that two years of research later I would do better, and I'm pretty sure I could due to having a long-term view now and being more analytical, but I do not have enough confidence to try trading like that again. The gains can be huge, but so can the losses. Check out Dr. Ken's posts/history in the challenge - started off with huge wins and then huge losses before he stopped updating. And presumably he's a pro - I was just a retail guy who jumped in without thinking about it adequately.


    And I think I told you wrong in the previous post based on my memory and not actually looking up the records (which I will not do - that was an ugly six months + of my life) - the initial purchase in TZA was based on a ma crossover and I don't remember for certain if it was a 20 day crossing a 50 or the fifty day crossing the 200.


    But after that I was just alternating between it and it's converse, TNA. I was greedy. And the more I think about it, I made more trades between the two in that timeframe than I mentioned. One thing I do remember for sure was in November of 2011 I was talking to my dad about the strategy and he said: "You know eventually you're going to call it wrong, right?" which I don't know if it was a jinx or not, but he was proven in short order to be correct.


    I suppose the above is my opaque way of warning you against Trading until you become comfortable in Investing. Which I suspect in my case will be a multi-decade process.


    "I can't believe you had the patience to hold for 6 months. Though the prior big wins likely helped make it feel better :)."


    The prior wins did not make it feel better. Being up huge and watching it evaporate in a couple of weeks (nevermind that looking back I should have been paying down credit cards instead of trading) and then doubling down and then having to double down again and finally months later the market slides and you're able to sell for a pop put the first noticible gray hairs on my face.


    Mentally, after a couple of months, I had just wrote off the money I had put in TZA. That's the only way I was able to hold it.


    "I suspect that many people come to the market, do a bit of gambling then lose a bit big. Then give up on the quick money & move to more stable investments. And very few people talk about it."


    This probably is true. I try to be honest about what I do and my history as I'm not trying to sell a service or anything and I'm anonymous (hopefully) on the internet. I'm just another guy.


    "You've got a great point, of buying long in leveraged when the market is going long overall."


    Maybe. The decay of leveraged funds with the daily reset and the leverage itself with interest rate risk on the horizon at some point I do believe screws up any viability of using a moving average with leveraged funds. Like I said, I could probably spend a year or so researching and probably come up with a viable strategy, but I'm just not willing to make the effort. Too much stress. If you're wrong, it's waaaaay wrong.


    What I do now pretty much guarantees an income anually of 8% on any new investment in my taxable account. That threshold can and will be adjusted upwards as interest rates increase.


    "I have no sense of using the MAs like you did. I don't have courage to try for trends like that. Apparently -- it's quite risky."


    I'm not sure that at the time I understood MAs. See evidence above of what happened to me. :)


    The moving average strategy I adopted for the limited options for my 401k - my hospital matches better than 50% on my contributions up to 6% of my salary, so I can't pass that up. And less than two months 'til total vestment if I can stand it. I'm hopeful for the strategy as there's a fair amount of evidence that it can (following the rules) protect you from a very nasty correction like 08-09 and the turn of the century while allowing you to joy-ride the market's long term move upwards.


    I checked out the article you linked. I would point out that he's using a 20 day moving average. That's very short term. That's for trading which I hope I clarified my opinions of in a family - friendly - manner in this writing. I use a 300 day average. I believe a few months ago we interacted with F&G - he presented a two year moving average that I hadn't even considered.


    Using the longer time-frame averages, you eschew the hft programs, the traders, and the nervous-nellies affecting the general market. You filter out the short term news noise. Everyone says you should do that, but how do you if you're constantly bombarded by the media with one crisis after another? Go with a long term look and follow the long term momentum...


    I overlay the 300 day sma on VTSMX - I see that every month or so there's a brief pull-back in the price, but that ends and it starts going up again. As long as that average is heading up and not starting to flat-line, I will keep my new contributions for my 401k to that fund. When it starts to trend sideways or the price of that fund drops like a brick to cross that average, then I will convert my money and new contributions to the money market fund.


    There. I just solved my problem of filtering out the noise! I will let the players with Big Money that can actually affect the market determine over the long haul what's going on and where things will go! As always, maybe...


    But I don't pay as much attention to headlines on Marketwatch or listen to the radio about the day's market movements (I cut cable TV a couple of years ago to save money). Nor do I worry about it. I just check that average against a broad index like VTSMX every week or so.


    "Also, it is hard because you have to develop rules, and then apply them quickly & consistently."


    I have literally written my rules in a 70 - page - college - rule notebook for more than a year over and over and filled it up so that I'm on a new one. Small tweaks as I learn something new, but then I would completely rewrite the two pages of my rules for buying and selling and rip out the old pages. I have the damn rules memorized, but I still look at them each time I'm researching - I still find myself using standards that have been out of date because I beat my brain up with this stuff constantly.


    I don't know that "quickly" applies to what I am doing, but consistency is very much a key!


    "Do you find SA is more doom than other sites out there? I'm curious on that."


    I do not know. I know Zerohedge is completely doom based on the few times I visited. Marketwatch articles seem to be more political-bait than investment-oriented. I started reading SA after another forum that I no longer visit mentioned it as being pretty good, but "I hope you like gold" was included in the recommending comment.


    One of the posters had mentioned cefs and tax-free and 7% monthly dividends in one post. I did google-fu because this sounded interesting and was a completely new to me idea and came across this site and cefconnect and investopedia.


    What I can say is that after more than two years of reading articles from a variety of authors, I have a pretty good sense of who is trying to make money based on fear, who is trying to make money based on optimism, and who is trying to make money by putting in print a list of stocks that they just ran a screen on. And a common feature of all of the above is that You - the Individual - is not smart/brave/knowlegeable enough to invest on your own without signing up for their awesome newsletter or reading the latest version of their book so you can be told what to do!


    And there are a few authors that put out articles that you can make money off of or better yet, learn from what they do. I think at this point there are ten or so I have bookmarked.


    I also bookmark the comments of folks that I think know what they're doing. That's probably a bit higher than the number of authors that I read.
    19 Oct 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • User7


    "income anually of 8%"
    That's an excellent return. It'd be nice to get some ride up as the market bulls too. But 8% is nothing to sneeze at. When I'm ready I'll have to find out your list of stocks. (BSF's, I have a good idea of by now :) to check out too. )


    MAs for stopped out before crashes. Hard to believe something works and it's not been "discovered enmass." But it seems good. Definitely something to consider for myself since avoiding crashes totally changes return rates even if you ride the 12% corrections.


    "I checked out the article you linked. I would point out that he's using a 20 day moving average."
    Good point. Using longer averages doesn't miss as much down. But it misses a lot more whipsaw, which can be very useful. Now a days more people use technicals so the market moves with them. So this may work better than it ever would have in the past.


    " the two pages of my rules for buying and selling"
    We'll have to compare notes! Maybe we all can at some point. We can see if we can fine tune each others. Mine aren't in a 70 page notebook. They're squribbled on papers, on the backs of store receipts... all in a folder waiting for me to summarize them. I'm new to anything beyond long term (that I learned quite a bit about in some excellent classes & tons of reading years ago), so I'm forming rules.


    Haven't heard of cefconnect. I'm finding SA has some excellent material. But a lot, lot of noise that has to be filtered out. Authors who don't fully research, and you only learn that reading the comments. Other times in older articles authors were right, but were reamed for it. At first I thought I was inept at reading, but quickly figured out some of it wasn't written clearly at all, was the whole program.


    "What I can say is that after more than two years of reading articles from a variety of authors, I have a pretty good sense of who is trying to make money based on fear, who is trying to make money based on optimism, and who is trying to make money by putting in print a list of stocks that they just ran a screen on."


    That's a great skill. I'll have to run a couple authors by you. I haven't developed that yet. But a few confused me. Felt like pump & dump or something not quite right -- yet people followed them glowing about money made. I wouldn't follow them for my whole portfolio, but I'd like a better read on how they "read." (I do like the list of authors BSF uses for solid concepts. Plus a few others seemed to think things through on the macro / movement front.) Be interesting too for all of us to share our author lists. Better to do in the chapter blogs, than in this portfolio blog. I'm trying to start a list of authors across various websites, & whether they are bulls, bears, or judge in the actual moment. So many macro articles are convincing till you realize they've been saying the same thing for years....


    What's your read on these two? (also newer from him:


    For everyone:


    I wanted to share Chuck Carnevale wrote about how to do due diligence.
    20 Oct 2013, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER


    Find a bookie rather then those scratch offs. I never liked those investments where you have no say in the outcome.


    Like a casino. Will play Blackjack but will not play the slots. Betting on sports is a long term losing way as well. Bookies want you betting every night so that , as you say, you eventually lose.


    But if you can be choosy and dedicated you can make money betting on sports. I did !! Until I got carried away and away from a system.


    The most important variable with any investment is time. Do you have time to make back your losses?
    11 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • I have traded leveraged ETFs for real, but only when I was pretty convinced of the sector or market's direction. I think the real skill involved with trading anything is not about when to buy but when to sell. The Greed problem. What often happened to me, particularly with leveraged ETF's is I made good money, than watched it evaporate along with part of my initial capital investment because I stayed in too long. I have been working on the when to buy and sell problem for a year or so now using daily buy and sell data over more than sixty years. It's a challenging problem...
    11 Oct 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » any opinions from the gold guys why the price is dropping?


    I just don't understand with so much uncertainty that it isn't rising..


    11 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • The big drop was apparently from one order. You can do all the technical analysis in the world and it provides zero protection from this kind of action.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Really IT, by now you should be able to see the pattern. Fear = Gold Up. Then Fear go bye bye = Gold down.


    Nobody wants to be holding the hot potato (that's holding on to gold while it falls like the rock it is).


    Check the GOLD chart on & go back 10 years. See gold go up as big financial crisis = real scary = gold go up. Now see how since 2011, gold is Falling because fear go bye bye.

  (click on 10 years to get the chart to go back that far)


    Sometimes you are so lost all you can see is the trees closest to you, and not the big picture - the forest. Another way to look at it, the doom & gloom you are in is keeping you stuck in a rut.


    Gotta make $ while the sun shines! Here's another feel good analogy. Take a look at the DOW chart going as far back as you can. Maybe on yahoo. Notice something? It just keeps going up. Once in awhile, we do see some down times. But then it gets back to going up. Will it always go up? Will it always recover? Your fear is holding you back from making money on great companies. Over the last year, the blue ribbon dividend growth stocks have done great. Plus you get the dividends.


    The way to make $ on the stock market is to hold 10, 20, 30 years or longer the really great stocks. Then watch your dividends pile up. You can have a mix of DGI stocks & growth stocks. My (KKD) (SBUX) (TSCO) (DNKN) are all making money, right along with the DGI stocks like (JNJ) (MCD) (CLX) (LMT) etc. All listed on my profile. Sure I've got some losers. Why the heck did I buy (FL) and (M)??? May be dumping them soon, but I'll wait for Christmas.


    Then there's that sweet trade of (NUGT)/(DUST). The cash made from that is making the losses easier to take.


    (QCOR) has been on fire again. That looks like a good stock to hang onto while it rockets to the upside.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    I don't agree with your assessment. Sure Gold should go up with fear. So if you believe that then explain why gold went up for 10 straight years? Was there a fear that lasted that long?


    I don't think so and if you really believe that the QE'S have nothing to do with the markets going up then I don't know what to say. I guess when tapering was hinted and the markets dropped it was a coincidence?


    Let me see what happens in a few years before I believe in this market. I know we already had a 10 year period of stagnation in the S&P . You invest in the millions you are fine. The ordinary Joe just isn't that fortunate.


    I am not buying that things are all rosy yet either. We shall see. I can be wrong . But I just don't see it right now.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Since before 2008 I've been a serious investor. Even in the down market 2008/2009 we were investing. The investment results have been better than I ever expected. In 2009, I was very scared but kept faith in the markets and the value of being invested. A lot of the recent gains we have had is due to reading here on SA & getting better at it. Like the gold trade with DUST/NUGT. Amazing stuff you can learn here!


    When QE ends, the economy will be able to keep going & things will continue to get better. There will be ups & downs, no market goes straight up. With dividend stocks, you get to make money even when the market is declining.


    If there is a big decline, well then always have a little cash stashed to take advantage of that. Because my portfolio is now mostly DGI stocks that never reduced their dividends during 2009 (in fact many continued to increase the dividend) we will weather what ever storms come our way. The fact that we just came thru such a hard time, battered but not drowned, makes me trust that we can survive come what may.


    My argument is that if you buy blue chip, quality stocks that pay dividends you will be rewarded. There are some great authors here on SA that help identify when a stock you want is value priced or over priced, so that when you buy it, you should see positive results. I bought some stocks when they were over KMB, FL, M and a few others. I don't always get it right. After a lifetime of investing, the overall results have been good. Some mistakes were made, and if decades ago (when we were in our 20's) I had invested in the market like I am today, you bet we would be happily retired. With no worries, just watching over the portfolio pruning stocks that reduced dividends & investing in better ones. That's the great thing about DGI stocks. The first indication that a company is in trouble is when they cut the dividend.


    We did not start out with oodles of money. Back in 1984, my husband & I had no savings, and we were lucky to have $5 at the end of the month. However, if SA had been my guru back then, so many things would be different today.


    It's never too late however, to switch up your investment strategy and to start putting together a plan where one day, you can live off the dividends. That's my goal, to retire & not ever sell any stocks because the dividends will meet our needs.


    This year, the savings will not have to be tapped as much, because making $ off the DUST/NUGT trades is going to really help pay expenses. Thank you to Dr. Ken for showing me this strategy.


    You know what's really amazing to me is that gold went as high as it did, to $1900. If you look at the chart for gold (on CNBC or anywhere) you see a direct relationship to the DOW and gold. Fear is a lot less now, even with the ongoing nonsense in DC that will soon be resolved.


    It is truly amazing to me that this year, I've made more $ on trading DUST/NUGT than I did at my last job. Hopefully, this will continue and given the volatility with the price of gold, the opportunities will present themselves.
    12 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • BSF
    I see you are in article writing mode. Are you working on any?
    13 Oct 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • I'll post one of my old posts in reply to the slam on Gold and PM's trading because of "fear".
    Making profits on Gold & Silver depends on what you bought with it when you sold it .If you used it as money you can invest Gold profit in many ways. That's what intelligent people do. If you BUY and HOLD stocks ,you are being quite foolish and a mark for the equity salesman to take advantage of. OTOH ,Gold buyers like myself buy $1000.00 worth for $900.00 and sell it when it's worth about 10% more than it was when we bought it. (That would be about $1100.00).100 deals like that and it makes no difference about volatility,and we are helping our local economy.
    14 Oct 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • too lazy to do it JW. As long as IT allows me, I'll just post my comments here : )
    14 Oct 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Coins, the only way to make money for real is to put cash in the bank : ) I love the gold volatility. Sh*t I love the goldbugs. They keep that commodity bouncing enough for me to make $ on the ups (NUGT) and the downs (DUST).


    The only stock strategy I've ever followed is buy & monitor. What I love about the DGI (dividend growth) stocks is that the first indication the company is having problems is often seen when the dividend is frozen, or worse - cut.


    SA has a lot of great authors that do terrific research. It's a great place to learn & profit from it.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with making money off all types of assets Blue Sky.And i applaud you for doing it with gold mining ETF's .not me though,i don't care for that sector very much. I prefer a surething and as long as precious metals are going up and down I'm fine with it. I can't take too much of it sitting still though. I like it when it goes up for weeks and even months at a time and I can sell a bunch then start buying again after it gets killed by the big money manipulators like Soros and Buffett.. I can't move markets like them ,but have gotten better at seeing the signs when they start to flip it upside down for a parabolic drop.We need another year of ups so they can do that again.I paid my building off in 2011 when they did that last time.Best regards ,Curt
    14 Oct 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Your insight and stories are always welcomed here.! I also learn from them as well.
    14 Oct 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » " Sh*t I love the goldbugs. They keep that commodity bouncing enough for me to make $ on the ups (NUGT) and the downs (DUST).


    Maybe it isn't the gold bugs moving this ?? Big trades are needed and I believe we have other forces at work doing this. Just my opinion of course.


    Someone is making out like a bandit that's for sure!
    19 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I know, I know...Everyone is looking at the standings and saying "look where IT is !"


    I hit the right wave folks... hehe


    Got a ways to go to catch that COINS guy . He is good, but he too will stumble.


    Have a good weekend !!
    11 Oct 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Net negative cash is it... :)
    12 Oct 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • :)
    14 Oct 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • I know, I know...Everyone is looking at the standings and saying "look where IT is !"


    " I hit the right wave folks... hehe
    Got a ways to go to catch that COINS guy . He is good, but he too will stumble.
    Have a good weekend !! "


    : )
    14 Oct 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • I am moving 100% into trading mode. At Monday's open, please sell (NVAX) and (VICL).
    12 Oct 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Had to minus 5+ shares of PSEC from you to cover your negative balance (this aint your bookie - no going in the hole... ;)). Not sure how it happened. I did not enter the trade, but either your cash on hand at the time of the trade was incorrect, or the number of shares bought was incorrect.


    Focal's should be correct now (crossing fingers), too.


    Thanks for pointing out errors, and please continue to do so. Very helpful if you happen to see what's wrong, too. Took me a minute to figure both issues out. :)
    14 Oct 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @JBT


    I just noticed this posting and I believe that FEAR changed the buying price for both Focal and myself as it was wrong. That might have caused the error.


    I am really not concerned about 5 shares ( yes I )


    But look above as FOCAL pointed out the error. I think you might have to reverse whatever you did.


    Plus I NEVER had a negative balance with my bookie either. ( hehe )...If you believe that I also have a bridge to sell ya !!


    But no worries if you think you got it right. I just wanted to point out that our original purchase or sale of (SPXL) MIGHT have something to do with this error...


    Send me a box of .22's and well call it even..???
    18 Oct 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • At the open, please buy 100 (UCO).
    15 Oct 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • At the close please sell (UWTI) and (UCO). That puts me all in cash at the close.
    16 Oct 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Please, buy 6000 shares of (BMRA) at today's close. And, sell my 1900 shares of (STB).
    16 Oct 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Please, sell the 3050 shares of (CLM) bought at 7.20 at today's close.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • JBT
    Question: if we have two instances of the same stock (bought on two different dates), does that count as ONE position or TWO positions?
    I am asking because of the "10 position portfolio limit"


    Anyway, here are my two trades for Friday AM:


    If I already have 10 postilions, I will sell the 100 shares of (FXC)
    Attention User7415181 - I am buying your recommendation - your core holding. It is a breaking-out, big, fast money, leveraged momentum play WITH A 26% YIELD.
    Look at what the REITS did today. Breaking out.


    Buy 400 sh (MORL) UBS E-TRACS Mthly Pay 2x Mortg REIT


    PS-if the 2 different trade dates don't count as different positions, but are one, then don't sell my (FXC)
    18 Oct 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW


    When I established the rules ONE symbol could be bought 20x . It is still considered ONE POSITION..


    Now on a different topic some will find this interesting for sure...

    18 Oct 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • No, JW!!! This is not what I own in the challenge! I only own a few shares in real life - please tell me that you're only using play money for this?


    And I think you missed the big ex-dividend date - the next two months of dividends will be much smaller. And there's no guarantee they will ever go up - they may very well go down...


    I very hope you're right that it will skyrocket (since I own some in reality), but at this point I would be happy to sell my shares for breakeven. Much too volitile for my stomach...
    18 Oct 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • User
    I think you will be getting even soon in (MORL) as tenatively, the REITS - all kinds of them are breaking out. Equity REITS, Healthcare REITs, mREITS; it looks like they are all breaking out of their bottom that has been in formation since July. They are now going above their 50 day MA all across the board.


    This is the sector I have loaded up on the most. Second behind them for me is Municipal CEFs. Locked in 6.5% tax free yield.


    REITs may easily go up 10% from here before hitting their 200day MA.
    That could mean 6 to $7000 for my portfolio in the next two months.


    MORL is 2x leveraged which is bad if its going down, but good if its going up. Looks like its going up.


    Others that I own are O and I am looking at UHT. These are "equity reits. both are good quality. I didn't use the () as it was showing a URL instead of the symbol. I also own TWO


    Oh, by the way, notice that all of my purchases - there are 12, are all in the black?


    PS - I don't attempt to understand mREITS. They are too complex. I only attempt to understand their price action.
    18 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Please sell all (BAC) and (WFC) shares. Proceeds to all go into buying (DUST)


    Thank you!
    18 Oct 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • BSF


    Do you expect (DUST) to continue popping up? Over what kind of time frame? I figured once (NUGT) was bought up on worries over the dollar being "played" with by politicians (i.e. budget crisis), it'd start to reverse.
    18 Oct 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • no way to tell what gold will do in the next few days


    depends a lot on the earnings being reported and on the jobs report - if it looks like the economy is full steam ahead than gold will become less of a hedge


    expect a lot of volatility as the effects of the shutdown on the GDP become known - won't know that until 4th Q is reported


    buckle up buttercup we've got a bumpy ride ahead as for stocks & gold
    19 Oct 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • I'm still in cash & now looking forward to getting back in.... so I hope you are right because bumps will be a great buy in op for me!


    I'm not sure poor returns on GDP will bug investors sentiment. First it means no way on tapering. Second, as long as earnings are directly good, that's what's driving the prices up, so GDP isn't that important.


    ...hum, I just read that defense stocks are down. (Maybe because g'vt that pays them was shut?)... could be a buying opportunity for buy & hold..., especially if we hit a bump down in general??


    Since I'm mostly going to go for ETFs (I don't know how to eval stocks well yet so I'll sub them in as I figure it out)... buying ETFs has no fundamentals to buy in on -- only market timing.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @BSF


    Here I thought you were only a buy and hold type of investor. Welcome to the casino rink !!


    All bets in, keep your hands off the table...Here we go !
    18 Oct 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    WOW, It just seemed like days ago you were underwater. What a pop north.


    Without looking at your portfolio would you mind commenting on what took off and why you think it did?


    Thanks !
    18 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Basically, they are all good stocks, and will naturally gravitate northwards over time. I hold all of them in my personal portfolio, with the exceptions of (CSX), (CLX), and (PFE) (see below for more on PFE). I plan to add the first two soon.


    When we began the challenge, I bought my stocks right after a spike up, and on the first day of holding the market plunged. That's why I've been so far down in the hole for so long.


    I hold long term, so I try to ignore the day to day ups and downs. When I buy something, I'm usually confident I'll sell it for more later - I don't like to gamble. Coke will come around, but that has been the stock that has surprised me the most - it has been a stinker.


    Anyways, on the (PFE)... Sold it out of my personal portfolio this morning. Sold for $30.43. Average cost per share was $16.67. Opened the position in June of 2009. 82.3% gain in roughly 4 years is not sprinting to the finish, but that's the kind of stuff that will win a marathon.


    I sold semi-unwillingly, and it took me awhile to click the sell button. The reasoning for my sell decision was this - I finished out our second floor late last year, including the addition of a full bath (all work done by yours truly! :)), and some of that work required the use of a credit card. I figured it did not make sense to pay that off over time @ 13.4% when Pfizer was only giving me ~5%.


    So, now to rebuild, and CLX is the new target. All that money that was going to the Chase card will now be invested in a bleach company. ;) It was kind of like borrowing money from myself.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like


    I forgot these people do not have the access to what we are doing and are just guessing.


    So I would appreciate it if you folks take the time and explain one of your investments for all!!


    Considering maybe we can then list it in a group, make one portfolio up, and keep it posted for all to see. Would everyone be up to this and you then could trade it along with an explanation..


    I guess we would have to figure out how we can keep it current with the prices. Maybe we can all have 100k and make a 1.5 million dollar portfolio and see how we do.


    Appreciate feedback next week and hope all at least check in and comment.


    18 Oct 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • See my comment above - 6th one up. I discuss the sector I like best at this moment. (AGNC) & (IVR) are my largest holdings in it. Just bought (MORL) today. See above.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • JW,


    Don't get me wrong - I hope you're correct about MORL. I own a bit, but I don't think I would recommend it to my friends or family. I've got a limit order in for 10% above where I bought it.




    I made a pretty detailed reply to Curls last night that's way on up the page, but I would still say VTSMX or any very broad range etf. The 300 day sma is still trending upward. So I think the market can continue to grind higher over time with some pullbacks along the way. When that moving average starts to flat line, then it's time to keep a closer eye on when to sell.


    19 Oct 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW


    I think that is why I was asked for others to do the same as you did. As you know I like (PSEC) for it's high dividend .


    18 Oct 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks IT -- I was concerned someone may have missed my comment above.


    My favorite of those above are (IVR) or (AGNC)
    These selections are time-sensitive. I think they are going o be moving out of the bottoming area and will make a move of 10% or so to the 200 day MA. It may take 2 or three months. At that time they would not be buys, but one could hold them for the dividend yields of 11 - 12%, or more for MORL. A trader might sell then and buy them back later at a lower price.


    I do like IT's PSEC for the monthly dividend of 12% annual, but I would probably sell around $12 and try to buy back around $10.


    See my more detailed comment above.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Go with the theory that beat up stocks will recover eventually.


    Buy (IBM) and (MCD).


    My best stocks are (AIG) (SBUX) (TSCO) (LVS) (KKD) (DNKN) (MCK) but since they all are up so much this year, I am not buying more shares.


    Look for companies with low PE ratios, but good earnings. (LMT) (F) (BAC). (AIG) still has a low PE.


    You have to be careful, since the market is up so much this year, we may not see that much upside in the next 6 months. Buy stocks that have dividends, so you can keep making money even when the market is going sideways or down.


    The shutdown may cause 4th Q to come in lower than expected. Watch how the retailers do between now & Christmas. If people don't spend $ on Christmas the economy is going to go lower. Right now, (M) and other retailers have been beaten up pretty bad. If you think Christmas will be good this year, buy (M).


    If there are any pullbacks, buy (DPZ). It's unbelievable, and still growing.


    Read Chuck Carnevale, David Fish, and Bob Wells hear on SA for how to construct a really good portfolio.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • At the open, please buy 1000 (SCO)
    21 Oct 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Please change that order to buy 1000 (SCO) at the CLOSE.
    I think it will rebound off the opening low during the day so I will buy it at the close.
    21 Oct 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, so for those who are now following gold and gambling on the direction let me know when the head scratching starts !!


    Mine did a while back as you can see from my trades. I think it should go up, it went down. I thought it should go down, it went up!!


    "Lets get physical" has been a theme of mine years ago instead of guessing a direction.


    My 2 guard dogs,named 12 and 20 gauge help me protect it. I believe TAMPAT has 2 also. Smith and Wesson ??


    My 2 cents as I learned the hard way..
    21 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • You should add a guard cat as well :)
    21 Oct 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Oh yeah. I forgot about my pussy cat. Here is a picture of him looking at the camera. Isn't he cute??

    21 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I forgot to tell you his name...comeandgetit !!
    21 Oct 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • At the open today, please buy $50,000 worth of (SCO).


    Also, the spread sheet does not show the execution of my purchase of 1,000 shares of (SCO) at the close yesterday. The closing price yesterday was apparently $31.26. Thanks...
    22 Oct 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Please, buy 10,000 shares of (BMRA) at today's close.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FOCAL


    You have cut your losses in half within days. Can you explain why you played this (SCO) at this moment?


    Where are we going and of course what is your plan to sell..


    Great job !
    23 Oct 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • I started the set up for this in Early October. I decided to experiment with a seasonal leveraged oil play. The idea was that Oil prices sometimes increase in the winter months, so buy leveraged long oil, ride the seasonal trend up, than flip the trade to leverage short oil on the way down. I tested the instruments [ETFs] for the play on the 11th. I announced I was going entirely into trading mode on the 12th. I found the triple oil ETF had insufficient trading volume, and decided to use the double leveraged oil ETFs (UCO), (SCO). I announced I was going totally into cash on the 16th, and there I sat waiting for a signal.


    The signal came, but it was not what I expected. I was looking for the start of an up-trend. What I got was much better than that, I saw what looked like an oil selloff. On investigation, it turned out that Oil supplies were high, that meant lower prices. On top of that, some refineries are down for maintenance. That reduces oil demand. I invested a third of my capital double shorting oil (SCO). The signal was confirmed during the next night with additional news on oil supplies high. I went in with another $50k in (SCO) the next day.


    So far, so good. Right now, double short oil (SCO) is well above its 100 day Moving Average and appears to be approaching its 200 day Moving Average. This means when I do flip the trade into a leveraged long, it is almost certain that the price of oil will retrace towards it's 20 day mean. In other words, I can switch at any time now into the double long oil (UCO) and enjoy the ride on the retrace. That should increase the earning potential of the play. Of course, I don't want to be in the play forever, so I might take profits, wait for the reversal, and than go for the flip.


    At what point do I execute the flip? I doubt I will see a huge change overnight, so I am letting it ride. But I am watching it closely. I think it will bounce on the 200 day MA and that's when I will sell part of my (SCO) position, keeping a portion in just in case the price continues to drop. It does not matter if I catch the local minimum, since I will still realize good profits. At least that's the plan...
    23 Oct 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FOCAL


    Wasn't it you who said the difficulty is when to sell once you are making a profit with an ETF??


    23 Oct 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • hehehe That's the name of the game... when to hold and when to fold. I think the price will drop a bit more... but I am watching the futures closely.


    Another interesting thing happened today... (VICL) popped to over my game purchase price. I of course sold it a few days ago to increase capital for the oil play... I could hear the laughing coming from the clouds when I saw the pop today. Of course, I am still holding it in my real portfolio. I am likely going to enter a leveraged long oil in my real portfolio as a result of this experiment... just a question of when.
    23 Oct 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » UPDATE


    For those who are not privy to the link we now have 12 out of 17 players in the GREEN...


    Still time to join us!!
    23 Oct 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • At the open, please sell (SCO) and with the proceeds buy (UCO).
    24 Oct 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Whoa... please cancel my sale of (SCO) ... sudden change in the market...
    To save you work, I deleted the setups in the spreadsheet...
    24 Oct 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • oil is going wild... its all over the place
    24 Oct 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Guys


    (PSEC) goes ex dividend on the 28th. Not sure what we agreed to as the earliest we can invest that. But please use the dividend to buy additional shares of the same..


    Giving you a few days notice as I have a busy weekend ahead...


    I promise not to change my mind like FOCAL just did... lol
    24 Oct 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • mutter... grumble
    24 Oct 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • At the close today , I wil be buying 150 shs of (FFIV),, some of my recent trades have been bummers, hope to change my timing and luck
    24 Oct 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Cancel the buy of (FFIV) at close ...
    24 Oct 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Today was a wash. I am going to take profits, please sell (SCO) at the close today.
    24 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    Welcome back !.. We can use your insights into this confusing market for some of us. Including me !!


    Any thoughts why gold is still up and oil is going down??


    Would appreciate your thoughts in the chapter section as many are feeling clueless..
    24 Oct 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times Dollar is depreciating and GOLD is going up. Oil is just a commodity. Economy is going to get worse. We are importing less. EVERYBODY wants GOLD
    25 Oct 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NOTRUB


    Congrads as you finally got your head above water....Only a few left in the red...Come on guys lets all be in the green by July!!
    24 Oct 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • DGP Gold long -- DZZ Gold short
    24 Oct 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Please sell my 3000 shares of (BMRA)that were purchased 9/6 for .92 a share at tomorrow's open.


    25 Oct 2013, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • Adding 400 Shs GMLP @ close 10/25
    25 Oct 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Down to 3 in the red..Is it time for FOCAL to get physical and gamble ? Or are you going to play it conservative.. One correct guess on the markets direction and you can end up like the DR did..


    (This is a little birdie sitting on your shoulder talking)


    Is it casino time !!!
    25 Oct 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • It is !2; 19 PM Pacific Time on 25th Oct
    Sell all USLV & with the money BUY TZA
    25 Oct 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. K, can you expand more on what you're seeing that signalling a sell?


    Futures were neutral earlier today, but are now very high positive again... confusing, but this market doesn't seem to know how to do pull backs....?
    27 Oct 2013, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • LOMH,


    Stocks are overbought here,, need to retrace a bit work off this short term excess similar tho what has taken place in the past.


    A chart is worth a thousand words..


    My .02
    28 Oct 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • @ F&G and Dr. K


    I'd read your blog Fear & it has a great chart. I checked out Dr. K's website too. He seems to be using something different for his signal, but that's coming to the same conclusion.


    So I'm hoping Dr. K can explain his signal more, since I couldn't figure it out on his website.
    30 Oct 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Monday at open please add 500 shares of (AWLCF) and 500 shares of (NTI). Thanks.
    26 Oct 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Monday- Opening moves
    1. Sell all VXX
    2. Buy BP (as many shares as VXX sale allows)


    Should have cut this loss weeks and learn...hoping to get out of the red and into the green this week...


    27 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » WOW..


    JBT has vaulted from being in the red to 4TH PLACE!! What a move..


    I see the DR has spoken ....Making a move.


    DEERCREEKS also Is shifting gears.. WILDWOOD has been quiet though...
    27 Oct 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • I view this as a marathon and not a else could I view it being in the bottom tier?...


    Tortoise and the Hare?


    You never want to peak in October.
    28 Oct 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DEER


    Tell that to Boston and St Louie...BTW that obstruction call was correct. I called it immediately from my couch.


    I also thought I spotted Corzine with a long beard on Boston's bench. Could it be??
    28 Oct 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • PLease ADD 1000 shares of (OMEX) ,Thanks
    28 Oct 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • I will sell (NVS) @ close today - buy 500 (PBR) with the proceeds .
    28 Oct 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • At the open, please buy $92k worth of (QTWW).
    28 Oct 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FPA


    Atta boy !! LET IT RIDE ....
    28 Oct 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A NEW CHAPTER!!!

    28 Oct 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • At the open, I would like to use all available cash (not much) to buy some more shares of (CSX).


    It was either (KO) or (CSX), but I like trains better today.
    28 Oct 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • At the close, please purchase as many shares of (QTWW) as possible. A last defiant shot as the ship goes down... in flames.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CRADE


    SOME OF YOUR CHOICES DID NOT COME OUT. Can you re post your comment in our current chapter???


    I believe i gave you the link in the PM..If not i will re post it if you need it !!


    Good Luck ! AND WELCOME...
    5 Jan, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • I'd like to join the portfolio challenge to test whether Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer lazy portfolio out performs Eddy Elfenbein's five new stocks for 2014 posted at his Crossing Wall Street blog Please invest the $100,000 at Friday, Jan. 3rd's closing prices.


    For the No Brainer portfolio please invest $12,500 in (VBMFX), $12,500 in (VFINX), $12,500 in (VEURX), and $12,500 in (NAESX).


    For the individual stock portfolio, please invest $10,000 each in (EBAY), (ESRX), (IBM), (MCD), and (QCOM).


    5 Jan, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CRADE


    The rules state that you have to use Monday Mornings opening price so if you want the same choices it will be that price...I re posted your comment in the current portfolio chapter..
    5 Jan, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Sure, sorry I didn't read the rules carefully enough! I don't care about the prices. Thanks a bunch. How do I find the current portfolio chapter?
    5 Jan, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CRADE


    We are up to chapter 11..

    5 Jan, 11:53 AM Reply Like
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