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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Author’s reply » Markets sold off today, I was out so was their any catalyst?


    7 Nov 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » After reading USERS blog I posted this !!




    Having this information coming from a person in the know is sooo valuable I hope it keeps on coming.


    Learning is what I look for to essentially back up my "outside the box" thinking I have. Personally I think a little reality is finally settling in for the public.."


    Now after JW'S I was taken back with his thoughts. FEAR has always been the calm one, and hopefully the correct one, as the end game.


    I applaud at three of you for adding value to this site !!


    Extended comments from anyone reading it should be left so that we know who the followers are. If you are a lurker please consider posting within the group of topics. We want to hear from you !
    7 Nov 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • @IT


    Two possible catalysts on MW streaming & CNBC & kind of obvious anyway --
    1) taking profits off a run up.
    2) GDP was well above expectation so tapering sooner than later.
    I was out too, so I missed any thoughtful analysis on GDP & jobs reports, so if anyone else has info to fill in or other points to elucidate!!


    So is this it for correction, or will it bounce around some downward more until holiday excitement hits? I bet this isn't the only correction day we see in the next few weeks. (Fear's chart is a good visual on this too in his instablog.)
    .... and taper may come soon. The last media events by Fed folks, were to keep Dec, Jan on the table. Is it still about the numbers?


    For those buying individual stocks, good article on end of year tax selling & picking up good prices:
    (Mark Hulbert - seems like a perpetual bull, but gives buying details here.)
    7 Nov 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • LOMH,
    news was actually pretty good , like u said the GDP number was ok, and the ECB cut rates. A lot of names that have had good runs were smashed today , Tech in general was hit hard. market down on decent headlines = a tired market after new highs. S & P 1700-1720 from these levels, looks like its in the cards..
    7 Nov 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I must admit that the POTUS almost had me in tears with his "I am sorry " speech about all those folks who now lost their health coverage when he specifically stated that would never happen.


    What a joke !


    I hope Americans really get annoyed at this BS..


    I also see that the new jobs number went through the roof. Anyone have any idea how many were seasonal hires. I am not buying this figure just yet on the surface, could use more info if anyone has any .


    Thanks !
    8 Nov 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • IT, The POTUS apology was directed to his liberal base, and any in the center that initially may have accepted to original promise that no one would lose health care coverage. These types of apologies have a tendency to calm any unrest that could form a crack in this base and create any longer term erosion. The "he lied" headlines, and concerns over the exit poll data from this week's elections created the timing of this weeks apology.


    You did identify one of the key issues on the unemployment/employment reporting. Yes, labor participation rate is still falling, down to 62.8% now. This is the lowest level since 1978. There are now 91 million people who are no longer in the labor force. The US is on course to a time real soon were there will be more people not working than working. Sounds like a recipe for more entitlements and declining tax revenues. I wonder if all of these events will make our increasing debt more attractive to foreign investment? Or maybe the FED just turns up the dial a little more on the printing press?
    9 Nov 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OAG


    That dial will be smoking real soon...No taper coming either.


    I might be eating my words but I am a gambling man, and a person who reads between the lines. No way this even gets started on Ben's watch. Not a chance !!
    9 Nov 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • OAG,
    While the labor participation rate is troubling there are other positive changes at work. 2009 ushered in two government programs designed to pay people for not working: food stamp eligibility was significantly expanded, and unemployment benefits were extended in unprecedented fashion. This most likely contributed to people's decision to drop out of the labor force, though I believe there are other factors at work as well, and that has kept participation suppressed.


    Friday's October jobs report beat expectations (204K vs. 120K), but that only means that the economy was not weakening in recent months as many assumed The important trends that have been in place for the past three years—2% annual growth of private sector jobs, remains intact. The economy continues to grow at a modest pace. The jobs picture isn't perfect to say the least, Jobs growth will need to accelerate from here before we can really get optimistic about a significant improvement in the economy. Its a "change" from where we were.


    I mentioned this as one of many secular changes taking place in the economy in my blog - 9/26 .


    The federal budget outlook continues to improve. The change in the debt problem is already taking place: We've seen dramatically higher tax receipts over the last several months , because of economic growth and a a rapidly shrinking deficit. The deficit will soon be well below 3.1% of GDP, the 40-year average, and is projected to shrink to 2.1% of GDP by 2015.


    Since hitting a high of $1.478 trillion in February 2010, the U.S. federal budget deficit has plunged by 54% to a new, post-recession low of $679 billion in the 12 months ended August 2013. A contributing factor accounting for the bulk of the decline: federal outlays have declined. Virtually NO ONE expected the budget outlook would improve so quickly and so dramatically.


    Relative to GDP, Gov't spending has declined by over 15%, from 24.4% of GDP to 20.6%, while revenues have increased by almost 17%, from 14.2% of GDP to 16.5%. The budget deficit is now a mere 4.1% of GDP, down from a high of 10.2%. In less than 3 years, the federal budget outlook has gone from dire to almost normal.


    The increase in tax revenues has been ongoing for the past three years: nearly every month has seen higher revenues on a year over year basis. The fundamental driver of revenue growth is economic growth: more people are working every month, and incomes are rising; a growing tax base is predictably generating higher revenues. This has happened in every recovery. If this trend continues the budget will be balanced in 3 years.


    It's not as dire as the naysayers would have us believe (and the equity market has and is telling a very different story) , as continued improvement will let the economy stand on its own and the fed slowly reduces their asset purchases.
    9 Nov 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    I read you comment above and it holds plenty of truths... But then do you expect tapering in December? If so why? If not why?


    Trying to learn here your thought process.


    Thanks !
    9 Nov 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think tapering in Dec. . My thoughts are the Fed wont take a chance with the round two of the debt fiasco looming in Jan.


    We'll see..
    9 Nov 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    If you remember TACK said Tapering had nothing to do with the markets. So if that is true, and I am not suggested your opinion on that at all, then would it matter if they tapered or not?


    Your answer has me believing that you feel taper could hurt the markets. I feel interest rates might take off if they taper. Are we wrong?
    9 Nov 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • IT:


    You've misquoted me. I said that taper would have little effect on the economy. The markets will discover that fact soon enough after whatever compulsory panic attack they feel compelled to have.
    9 Nov 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK


    Sorry, my wording was off, so then I am guessing here you really see no need in waiting to taper?
    9 Nov 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • As Tack mentioned here the markets will more than likely have a "panic attack", it will be more emotional than anything else. After a while the markets will eventually realize as the economy improves as we have seen, tapering will have minimal effect on economic conditions in general ..


    Interest rates will rise gradually and normalize as the economy improves on its own.
    9 Nov 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • IT:


    Not really, but, as Lawrence Kramer has stated elsewhere, the market keeps allowing the Treasury to sell bonds cheaply, so why shouldn't they take advantage, even via the Fed, if it's not creating inflationary pressures? Of course, that can't last forever.
    9 Nov 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear,
    I have been watching the labor situation and I don't see any signs of a labor recovery. You mentioned the increased food stamp program and extended unemployment benefits. I think another significant number is the increase in disability payouts. I'm sorry I didn't research an actual numbers for this post, but have heard that the number of people now on disability have nearly doubled over the past few years.


    None of this is healthy, but I do believe that businesses are not investing all this available capital that is out there to expand their businesses and hire more people. The excess dollars seem to be going in to the stock market and some in to real estate. You would think that with historically low interest rates and all of this availability of cash, that businesses would be tripping over each other to borrow and expand. Hire more people. Increase production to support GDP increases in the 7-8% area. The problem seems to be that there is not enough demand to make this all happen.


    The middle class in the US has been the large sector that has historically moved the market. This sector is losing income. While the 1% is doing very well, the middle class is shrinking, and the lower class is expanding. If that is not stabilized and reversed, and if the middle class does not start to grow and increase earnings along the way, there will not be any sustained recovery in the US.


    There is a lot of pressure in the US right now to cut full-time jobs and replace them with part-time jobs. Obamacare will be a huge blow to the middle class. Many of these people will be pushed down to the lower class with this law. There will also be many that will simply not be able to afford insurance. A lot of these people will be too rich to receive the subsidy, yet not well off enough to add the extra premiums and high-deductibles that they will be either forced to pay, or they will be forced to decline insurance and pay the tax penalty. God help these people that are forced off insurance and then end up with high medical bills in 2014+. This obamacare is a major, major, factor to this economy. Even if there are some more delays to the rollout, this law is not going away. It is here to stay, and it will have a major impact to this economy.


    Not sure how the latest budget deficit is looking. I do know that through the first 8-months of 2013, the deficit did shrink. Higher taxes, of which a lot of these are probably a result of the large gains in the stock market. I did hear that there was a sizable increase in the deficit in October, once the debt ceiling was extended into early next year. I don't see any consensus from this current group in the House, Senate, and President, to pass spending cuts from where they are currently at.


    You have mentioned favorable improvements in the GDP, and reduced government spending along with increased tax revenues. It would seem to me that QE3 should have never been approved and been implemented in January, '13 if all of this were true. With the rapid improvements during just 2013, you would think that there would have been tapering and serious discussion of eliminating QE in light of the turnaround in the economy. I guess we will see if there is any tapering in 2014, or more likely any increases to QE in 2014.


    I do hope that I can look back a year or two from now and say, FEAR was right. If so, most of us will all be better off.
    10 Nov 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • OAG,
    An article here that debunks the argument that jobs growth is coming form part time jobs only ...



    This link show a chart that indicates there has been ZERO growth in part time employment since the recovery..



    IMO the crowd that debunks this recovery uses the "part time' employment issue to "sell" their story.. A story which has been wrong since the recovery started . I'm not buying and neither is the market.


    It's not perfect . when it is the market will have topped , we aren't there yet.. Speed bumps for sure , but the market will be higher in '14 than it is today ... No one believed we would be at S & P 1770 but here we are.... :) 
    10 Nov 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear,


    Thank you for the two articles from Scott Grannis' blog. I accept his claim that this recovery is similar to others from the past in that the new jobs have been more full time than part time. However...


    Scott's third point from the 8/7 blog is telling in that he indicates the 2013 job creation has sharply swung to a much greater percentage of part time vs. full time jobs. I agree with Scott in that this is most likely due to obamacare and how it deals with companies that employ more than 50 full time employees. Although Scott seems to believe this is a temporary trend in full/part-time jobs, and feels this will swing back to more full-time, obamacare is not "temporary". In fact I think it is a fair statement to make that obamacare gets progressively worse and more expensive year-to-year, in terms of progressive taxes/rules during the swift transition.


    On Scott's second article, I know he concludes that from a jobs perspective, he feels his charts he presents make a strong argument to taper QE. On a side note, I would support Scott Grannis to head the FED, over Yellen. The telling chart for me on this 11/8 blog, is the labor force participation rate chart. Stunning chart. An expanded food stamp program and extended unemployment benefits are a drain on our economy, but I don't believe they affect the long term trend of this steady decline in participation rate. I believe an employer will fill positions for employment to meet their needs regardless of this rising entitlements particularly over the longer term.


    I still look at the impact of obamacare and cannot equate this disaster to any implemented socialism that has happened in the history of the US. In the last 100-years, we've seen income taxes imposed, social security tax, medicare, runaway spending on failing public schools, countless powerful over-reaching Federal agencies, etc. In the past, these all start out relatively small and then progress over time. Obamacare will hit the middle class fast and hard, immediately. If you are not in the top 1%, or if you are below the income level to receive a meaningful subsidy, this will impact most everyone in that middle class. I don't see how this will not have a lasting significant impact on employment and the economy. This is not a one and done massive tax, rather a gift that keeps on giving, ongoing.
    10 Nov 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • It's seasonally adjusted data.


    Lot's of discussion here:
    Left Banker & Mrdirt talk about that specifically.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH


    Thanks for the link !
    8 Nov 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So I guess where back to tapering happening in December? Anyone want to wager on that?


    Not happening !!!
    8 Nov 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Quoting someone else..


    "Not great employment 77% of all low paying jobs: Retail up 44k
    932k dropped out of labor force. U6 13.8
    Leisure & hospitality up 53.0k
    Health Care up 17.5k
    Prof bus Svc up 44.0k
    Total 158.5k"


    Anyone care to want to comment on this?
    8 Nov 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • My thoughts..


    If anyone choose to disbelieve a "good" jobs number , then they should also disbelieve a "poor" jobs number..


    At the end of the day , forget the day to day headlines , concentrate on what the market is saying ..


    no taper in '13 is what i have been saying for a while , Doubt that any taper wil take place in Dec. Simply because the fed cant trust that we wont have another debt fiasco in Jan. so IMO they sit and watch .. 
    8 Nov 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. This was very good news & numbers. For a change the market reacted to good news as good.


    I'd forgotten about the Jan fiasco option, but that's an incredibly excellent point.


    Dec taper is "conceivably" possible. However:
    - There's overswing. So it swung out to March, now it's back to Dec.
    - Fed said 6.5% & it's about about the numbers.
    - It was a short one time jump. They'll want more evidence it's a stable improvement.
    - No one wants to ruin a holiday. An upbeat season will help the economy with upbeat momentum & confidence so they'll aim for that.
    - Market didn't show Dec taper worries today. So that's the consensus even as the media keeps talking.


    A couple Dec possible vague thoughts:
    - Holiday isn't looking good so they taper to give it an excuse?
    - Yellen's coming, they decide it's best to start before the handoff.
    - Fed are people -- they could decide anything & surprise us.


    There'll be more dips before the holiday season starts. It's still toppy according to everyone... And if it starts overheating, the Fed will go to the media and talk about tapering.


    I haven't paid attention to the market pre-QE. I'm wondering, so what moves it regularly? Is it earnings, and general economic data being good, & conversely black swan events? Anything else? Can folks who've experience normal, tell me what it's like :) ??
    8 Nov 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,


    Earnings ,move the markets, there are always plenty of headlines and supposed market moving events. But when the dust settles it all comes down to what corporations are earning and the market always looks ahead to their future earning capabilities.
    8 Nov 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Borrowed this post as well. Seemed interesting !


    "From the most recent Current -- "On the downside, the labor force participation rate whooshed down to 62.8% from 63.2%"


    Payrolls sizeable jump up, unemployment ticks up, participation rate plummets.


    Hmm, that's a strange mix of results? I look forward to reading explanations and thanks in advance for any insights posted."
    8 Nov 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • That link I gave earlier has discussion that explains how furlowed were counted and not counted -- that directly explains all of it.
    9 Nov 2013, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH


    I disagree with that link. This isn't just about the furlowed workers. It goes much deeper then that. They want you to believe that. But that report has nothing to do with people LEAVING the workforce..


    Wait until O CARE really hits home. As you can see from very intelligent people posting here daily folks are losing their insurance come Jan 1..


    Please, I do not want to even hear anyone say the POTUS had no clue that insurance companies would do away with lower cost plans once they were forced to accept prior conditions. Did anyone really think those plans would survive.?


    Lies, lies, lies, is all we are hearing and plenty are getting scared and annoyed at the same time. That is a recipe for a disaster to happen.


    Corp. bottom lines will eventually get affected. Maybe people will have to sell some stocks to pay the higher premiums so the bottom lines won't even matter. Survival will come first !
    9 Nov 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • My Commentary on the equity "bubble" talk........

    9 Nov 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So on Friday gold drops another 1.5% yet (DUST) also does the same..??


    9 Nov 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT


    Gold - Dollar got stronger. That's the key correlation right now. You haven't been including it in your looks.


    That link is just a bunch of folks talking on SA. So post your thoughts there and see if anyone has a comment.
    9 Nov 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH


    If we are talking about the same link i have left plenty of comments that I made my point and have moved on this morning to other articles..


    You see I am of the opinion that one day the dollar getting stronger won't have the same impact on gold. I just posted about gold getting wacked on Friday but (NUGT) WAS ACTUALLY UP..(DUST) WAS DOWN...


    You will see no taper in December either. The FED will point out another weakness and say "not just yet". How many times do they have to do this for people to wake up. It ain't happening. It would be a disaster right around the holidays.. NEVER..


    9 Nov 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Curious about views on interest rates,


    Friday had a huge spike up in interest rates. The rate on the10 yr bond jumped 13 basis points to 2.75% which is an increase of 5%. (TLT) dropped $2.55 - also a huge drop.


    Question: Is this an over-reaction to the jobs report? Was this overdone? Or is this just the start of even higher interest rates to come.


    I'm wondering as I have some i-rate sensitive investments. I did sell TLT at its peak over a week ago.
    10 Nov 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW


    I recently heard a person who runs a bond fund warning investors to get out of bonds completely by 2014... So not sure how we bobble from here but I am thinking rates are heading North.


    Now I think you will find this video very disturbing.. CAN ELECTIONS BE RIGGED?

    10 Nov 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I might add am I the only one who really never understood MONSANTO ?



    What effect , if any , did this have on the markets ??
    10 Nov 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Investors tend to only look at earnings and they don't care what the company sold or produced to create the earnings.


    The investors will read the morning WS Journal while having coffee sweetened with aspartame sweetener (92 listed health side effects like brain cancer), and eating GMO Bt (pesticide gene) Corn Flakes with GMO soy milk (mimics estrogen hormones) for a healthy touch.


    For the rest of his family, the kids drink down a glass of rGBH (recombinant bovine growth hormone) tainted milk to produce early puberty in girls and breast cancer in women and maybe other cancers like prostrate cancer.


    The WS Journal may have a small article about collapse of honey bee colonies. The investor will shrug it off and read about Monsanto's earnings from the sales of seeds that produce toxins that kill insects.


    Later in the week he will attend the funeral of an uncle who died of cancer caused by Agent Orange that he was exposed to in Viet Nam.


    This is just a small sample of how of how Monsanto has touched our lives on its way to positive earnings growth.
    10 Nov 2013, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW


    I have a lot more to learn about this. People need to visit your blog..
    10 Nov 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • >People need to visit your blog.


    Buy precious metals! Vaccines are bad! Down with the Fed cartel!


    I get my fill of fear-mongering and conspiracy theories, thanks.
    12 Nov 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DNORM


    You are always welcomed to your opinion here..
    12 Nov 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234


    I like your halo. Where can I get one without dying?


    I am buying precious metals - some silver coins here and there, Vaccines are bad- I haven't had one in 55 years and I'm doing fine, and I don't have much use for the Fed,


    ...but about fear-mongering in the context of warning against consuming harmful chemicals and toxic substances, I don't see how that is fear mongering.


    "Conspiracy theory" is just a disparaging trigger word employed by the media establishment to cast a cloud of ridicule on any attempt to uncover and understand acts of malfeasance committed by the leaders who they serve.
    -- -- sorry if that was a difficult sentence.


    Of course you have gotten your fill of "conspiracy theories" It is SUPPOSED to be overwhelming to the point that the average person is desensitized.
    12 Nov 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • There are people who have had vaccines for the past 55 years that are doing fine, too. Your straw man is weak, grasshopper. We got our son vaccinated, and would have even if it were not "the law". Chicken pox was no fun. I don't know from personal experience, but I imagine polio wasn't much fun, either. Or small pox.


    Because I have not eaten Madagascar Hissing Cockroaches is not the reason I don't have cancer right now. Perhaps had I eaten them I -WOULD- have cancer.


    That's how some of these arguments sound...
    12 Nov 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • I come across people every week who have gotten some vaccination and then got sick right afterwards. Vaccines are DESIGNED to have side effects and some side effects are worse than others, especially when it is death.


    People who have gotten 55 years of vaccines probably have Alzheimer's now thanks to aluminum and mercury in the shots.


    You can expect the government to lie to you about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines and hide the incidence of adverse reactions.


    Flu shots are virtually worthless. They ARE worthless by the time you are over 60. They are potentially dangerous at any age. The vaccine schedule of 35 shots by the age of 16 is criminal. Doctors have no sense in giving shots to people with compromised immune systems.


    We may be seeing more shingles as a direct result of the chicken pox vaccine, which by the way only confers temporary immunity.
    "A five-year-old girl, vaccinated against varicella-zoster [chicken pox] virus (VZV) presented with clinical symptoms of herpes zoster "[shingles].


    My wife's friend's brother got the shingles vaccine. Then he got shingles.


    25% of the US population is infected with SV-40 monkey virus from the polio vaccines in the 1960's. The monkey virus can produce about 5 different fatal cancers including brain cancer. Merk knew the vaccine had the money virus when they distributed it. It is passed on from mother to child. Some of the people reading this are carrying the money virus.
    May as well eat Madagascar Hissing Cockroaches.
    12 Nov 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • How many people were adversely affected by polio, which is now all but eradicated due to the vaccine? By having chicken pox, I am at a higher risk of getting shingles.


    To deny the benefits of the polio vaccine, the small pox vaccine, and now (wasn't available when I was young) the chicken pox vaccine makes (the person who denies the benefits) a fool, and wrong.


    "My wife's friend's brother got the shingles vaccine. Then he got shingles."


    That may be a matter of correlation without causation. Because one thing happened does not mean something else that happened afterwards was the result of the first thing.


    With our litigious society, where are all the lawsuits for death due to monkey virus from vaccinations? I hear the lawyer ads for mesothelioma, joint replacements, now Tylenol, etc., etc - not so much on monkey virus. If there was meat on those bones, I know the lawyers would be a-callin'.


    We may be seeing more shingles as a direct result of sun spot activity. People over 70 who do not have Alzheimer's may have avoided it by getting vaccinations for 55 years. See what I did there? It's easy to throw stuff out there, but where is the proof? Where is the science? Where are the lawyers?
    12 Nov 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • John:


    Yes, while we're at it, let's go back to the pre-antibiotic and pre-sulfa-drug days, when any minor infection could easily be a death sentence and often was.


    The problem today is that people have life so good and effortless that they have to invent threats and crises in their free time to alleviate boredom and their sense of not being challenged.
    13 Nov 2013, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • Well, the general consensus was that Twitter would rally opening day and then settle back down a bit in the next few days. Of course I did not listen and added it to my portfolio challenge. However, I believe it will do just as Facebook did...rally opening day... settle down a bit with a somewhat hard fall (maybe into 20s or low 30s but then after a few months I think it will rally again and move up into the 50s. Without giving any scientific reasoning and just going with my gut, I think twitter could be $100 stock in the not too distant future and I am considering buying some in my real life portfolio too... just not sure when to enter. Anyone else in here like Twitter long-term?
    11 Nov 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • ROS,


    I haven't done a whole lot of research on Twitter, but my initial reaction on all IPO's is to sit and wait for a better entry point .. Most if not all are cut in half or more after they become public..


    I was fortunate , waited for FB to get down to low 20's (remember when everyone hated FB and how horrible it was ? ) I was reading 2- 3 negative articles here on SA every week ) -- I then got in for the ride.. I think the same pattern could develop here. be patient , add it when the media and analysts turn negative. These are what I call "Lottery ticket" stocks and should only be a small portion of your portfolio..
    11 Nov 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • @ROS


    I've seen commentary and I tend to expect -- that Twitter will be an run up stock the way Tesla & Amazon are. $100 may be more in line with it's future potential earnings than either of those any time soon for their prices, so it may be a bit more sensible as a bet. I'm not buying it though because it's a betting stock, not a valuation stock (I'm making up those terms). Also I've been staying away from the big news names & all the drama with them that can run the prices up and down, without it being based on straight value...& that I'd have to listen to noisy media to follow. But I agree with you it's probably not a crazy buy at this time & price.


    Oh, and I don't use twitter. I think it's a fade that media & business uses, but that will not be as able to grow or as solid in the longer term future. There's so much stuff generated on it that no one could care about. I joined and wound up hearing what my one time acquaintance's cat was eating on an hourly basis... But that's a much, much longer term, years out, view of mine. They;ll have to find new relevance, or new businesses eventually, which they may, to not max out growth.
    11 Nov 2013, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • LMH,


    For a while I thought Twitter was a fad and quite frankly I never liked it much bit as i watch it gain in popularity and my teenage son talks about it, I tend to believe it is beyond any fad stage. Once in a while you get those companies like Amazon, Apple or Netflix that appear to be nothing more than a solid long-term company and then one day you term around and their price is 30, 40 50 times what it was a few years ago. i think Twitter has that potential. I am definitely NOT making it a significant part of my portfolio but i like the idea of owning a pocketful of shares, empty pockets into dresser drawer and check back a year or two fromnow.
    11 Nov 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • @ROS
    I'll go back on what I said, and go with what Fear said. Rather than now to enter, wait for the big pullback. There's already negative media attention on Twitter, so more is bound to come.


    There are those companies that just break out & seem amazing. But for each of those, are all the ones that flopped who's names we don't even remember. Hence the "lottery ticket" idea. Twitter definitely has the star-power image that could be one of those you described.
    11 Nov 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • It must be added that i 'borrowed" the "lottery ticket" name from "southgent" :)
    12 Nov 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Where did everybody go today?


    No comments>>
    11 Nov 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Did my made up Monsanto story scare then away?
    11 Nov 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • No. I'm a Monsanto fan, and have heard that nonsense many times before. ;)


    I wish they sold their seeds @ retail.
    11 Nov 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Just don't eat their seeds. I hear that pigs if given a choice to eat GMO corn or old time field corn, will always go for the old time field corn.


    I trust animals more than scientists.
    11 Nov 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Locally-grown corn (locally to me) is grown from Monsanto seed. It tastes delicious. Very lush crops, too, and TN has a tendency to be very dry in the summer time.


    I believe the cotton and soybeans around here are also Monsanto seed stock, but I don't care about those crops. I just like the corn. ;)


    Pigs will eat feces. They are poor judges of quality food, in my opinion.
    11 Nov 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • I've never heard of Monsanto before (am I living under a rock)?


    While I tend to be cautious on a lot of the worry stories (and there are so many - I live in an earthy-crunchy community), the bee problems from pesticides/toxins I do take seriously. I know beekeepers and what they've dealt with. Several are people I know very well, and trust on judgement.


    At first I didn't take the GMO concerns seriously. At this point my thought is, it might be fine, might not, but I'd rather not do this ginnie pig style and find out centuries from now that we humans made an irrevocable mess. I'd rather caution going forward, with real testing.


    Be it with pigs or something less thrilled with "slop". (Do pigs really eat feces? Dogs do. I gather a bunch of animals do. The story I'd always heard is pigs roll in feces but only if they don't have enough liquid/water to keep cool other ways.)


    So JW, for all the issues I've not approached as you have, you hit one I have some similar thoughts on :).


    That's interesting. I don't know anything about Monsanto seed itself (obviously), but creating effective stock is the driving point. That can help with many other problems (hunger, costs, water). It's what makes a need for not over reacting when evaluating.
    11 Nov 2013, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,


    (MON) genetically engineers their seeds to grow naturally(?) pest resistant plants. In addition, they engineer them to be hardy in a wide temperature range. The resultant plants are also very drought/wet tolerant.


    (MON) gets a bad rap because they genetically engineer their product. People fear advancement, still to this day. We got honey bees a-plenty here, and we're right in the middle of GMO corn, soybean, cotton and wheat fields. Maybe all the bees are migrating to Tennessee? Please take some back, if that is the case.


    Pigs are somewhat similar to dogs (distant cousins?). Pigs will eat anything.
    12 Nov 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH


    Isn't it interesting that some lawyers at Monsanto are also lawyers for the FDA?


    Google MONSANTO and decide for yourself. From what I read it isn't a bad rap at all. Decide for yourself.


    Here is one for starters..


    Just spoke to two nurses over the weekend about the Flu vaccine. Does everyone know it contains mercury? Humm.. Hence they will never take the shot. Has many other items included as well..
    12 Nov 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • "" is against Monsanto? Stop the presses! I heard PETA thinks animal abuse is wrong, too... I better check their website to verify.
    12 Nov 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am all for advancement. But at what price? Everyone can choose to put whatever they want into their bodies.


    Me? I TRY to avoid eating anything that already contains a toxin. But call me foolish..


    BTW..I love Clinton now holding BO'S feet to the fire about healthcare.
    12 Nov 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Monsanto, Tyson, Smithfield (Shuanghui), Archer-Daniels, Potash, etc. make it possible to feed this world and it's ever-growing population. Free-range chickens and non-GMO, non-heavily fertilized crops aint gonna cut it anymore.


    The alternatives - culling the "herd" or forced sterilizations, mass starvation, etc. seem like higher prices to pay than using 20th/21st-century food tech that has not been proven (by any reputable science) to be harmful to humans.
    12 Nov 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "Monsanto, Tyson, Smithfield (Shuanghui), Archer-Daniels, Potash, etc. make it possible to feed this world and it's ever-growing population. Free-range chickens and non-GMO, non-heavily fertilized crops aint gonna cut it anymore."


    So then that is the reason we should eat chemicals?


    That doesn't cut it for me, I buy as much organic food as I can. Yes, you can still buy Free-range chickens if you'd like. It comes down to what you want to pay. Just because they can produce more doesn't mean it is better for you!
    12 Nov 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Doesn't mean it's better, or worse either. ;)


    I'm down for culling the "herd" - where should we start?
    12 Nov 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No it does mean it is worse for you.. Sprinkle some toxins on your dinner for me then..


    Monsanto WILL "cull the herd", you just won't know it. Some dying at an earlier age is culling :)
    12 Nov 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Only thing is - people keep continuing to live longer and longer...


    Maybe GMO crops and hormone-laced meat is making us stronger and more resilient. There's more evidence for that than anything else.
    12 Nov 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "Maybe GMO crops and hormone-laced meat is making us stronger and more resilient"


    Kinda like what steroids did for Professional sports? Stronger for sure, but healthier??
    12 Nov 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH


    I am borrowing this post from JW'S blog..


    "That web page is exactly what I'm talking about. I just briefly touched on it. Spend some time reading its content.


    Monsanto is voted world's "Most Evil Corporation" year after year.


    Monsanto has been poisoning us and giving us cancer since the 1970's.


    PBC's: -- skin and lever damage


    DDT: --harmful insecticide


    Agent Orange:-- cancer causing herbicide


    Aspartame: -- poisonous and harmful in many ways


    (rBGH) growth hormone milk, likely to cause several types of cancer.


    GMO crops: This is a huge issue now. Control the food supply.
    Feed us food from grains that rats will not eat. Good example is the Bt pesticide corn. Poisonous.


    In short, IT, Monsanto is the present day equivalent of IG Farben.
    Do you remember who IG Farben was? I'll give you a clue: they made pesticides for a fascist government. Monsanto makes pesticide and herbicide products to poison both humans, and the environment. They are in collusion with the government. Hell, they are inside the government.


    Here is another link that lays it out: Monsanto's Dark History


    It is no exaggeration to say that Monsanto is inherently evil to the core."
    12 Nov 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • "Monsanto is voted world's "Most Evil Corporation" year after year."


    Left out the remainder of that headline - "by environmentalists."


    The linking of biased websites that have an obvious agenda do absolutely nothing for your argument.


    It is a verifiable fact that the world's population is living longer than ever before. Because some greenies say that GMO/hormone-enhanced foods MAY cause problems generations from now is no kind of proof of anything.


    I could claim that about anything.
    12 Nov 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "by environmentalists.".. Are they soo bad worrying about this? I kinda like watchdogs.


    "It is a verifiable fact that the world's population is living longer than ever before. Because some greenies say that GMO/hormone-enhanced foods MAY cause problems generations from now is no kind of proof of anything."


    You don't see any of the negative effects happening now? Ok, No need to beat this to death. We will just disagree and live our lives as we see fit !
    12 Nov 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • To your last question, no, I don't.


    Agree to disagree. Enjoy your organics.
    12 Nov 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • I am middle of the road on this.




    When I was working security in a sorority house in the late 90's (not nearly as cool as it sounds), I listened to Art Bell overnight. I remember one guest was bashing Monsanto and how their genetic engineering was going to eventually lead to all plants being sterile except the seeds bought from Monsanto.


    This hasn't happened yet. Nor has Y2K.




    Please google monsanto lawsuits against farmers or vise-versa. Read a few pages. I kind of find it disturbing.
    12 Nov 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • I find most lawsuits I read about disturbing.
    12 Nov 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER


    So am I. Like I stated I recently found out about Monsanto. Felt like LOMAH.. Knew nothing really about them. Then my core of friends "enlightened" me somewhat this weekend.


    What I have learned is the truth usually lies somewhere in between. But I refuse to dismiss it !


    JBT.. Having chicken tonight as a matter of fact :)
    12 Nov 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    Get hit by a car running a red light like I did. Then talk to me about disturbing lawsuits..
    12 Nov 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • I (well, my mother) tried to bring a lawsuit against the hospital where I was born because of something they did post-delivery that has negatively affected me my whole life. The doctors retreated into their doctor shells, lost notes, lost audio tapes, etc., etc. Our lawyer recommended that we drop the case, as it would be too expensive to go forward. People that knew everything at the outset soon knew nothing when they were potentially getting prosecuted.


    I know all about disturbing lawsuits. Even disturbing "almost-lawsuits".


    Enjoy the chicken. If it's "organic", it's still most likely pumped up with growth hormone. No regs on labeling, and all that. Somebody's "core group" of friends will assure you that you're going to grow a second head and turn into a vampire.
    12 Nov 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    From a guy who roasts whatever in a pit:) I am fine with my chicken as we have places that sell them where I live.


    Sorry you have some deficiency that will last a lifetime. I know the feeling .No, it isn't my second head either.


    BTW core friends are all in the medical field. I do trust their opinions...
    12 Nov 2013, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    So do we - Wal-Mart. ;) Gonna get our Thanksgiving turkey there, too. No turkeys in the pit, though - not cooking enough of them. Might grill one and oven bake one, though. Maybe if I get it hot enough it will cook off all those evil toxins. ;)


    Oh, and I'm not all elephant-man, or anything.... One of the charge nurses quickly removed the bandage off the bottom of my heel (that's where they used to take blood, or something), thereby removing my tender infant skin with it. Heel skin does not grow back very well, and never has. It made it a challenge to be a child (had to be VERY careful of that foot), and to this day if I step on, say a rock, or anything "sharp" when barefoot, it will puncture the "skin" and I'll have to be off my feet until it heals.


    The excuse back then was that skin grafts would not "take" on the heel. My fear of the medical establishment has prevented me from seeing if they have made any advancements that would help. Besides, I'm old now, and don't really like going barefoot, anyways.


    Anyways, that's what happened - I am not a freak! ;) That would have been a slam-dunk lawsuit today, and I should be living on easy street. I still curse that old hag w(b)itch that did that to me, even though she's long dead. I spit on her soul.
    12 Nov 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    Maybe Monsanto can grow you some new skin :)


    Gonna be tough without your double check qb...Rodgers is a deal breaker for sure !!
    13 Nov 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • I forget the name of the company or research group or whatever, but somebody out there can grow human ears on the backs of rats. Maybe I should look into that.


    Yeah, Rodgers going down ended our season, pretty much. Funny thing is, right before that game I was talking with the wife and remarked how I initially considered A.R. a glass cannon when he first took the QB reigns from Favre... So, it may just be my fault. :(
    14 Nov 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You need ears too?? Eat more Monsanto corn. Trust me they will grow:)
    14 Nov 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • No, I'll grow rat-back ears on my foot bottoms. (MON) only makes plants grow, not animal tissue. Probably would need something from a biotech firm. Sprinkle some fetal cells on the rat-back ears, maybe.
    14 Nov 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well then no one could say you don't have your ears to the ground that's for sure!
    14 Nov 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • I could patent it.... Of course Apple would probably sue me...
    14 Nov 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • IT, the new one has been posted and the boo birds are already commenting LOL...... I can't fathom how so many are out of touch...


    stay cool.
    12 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AP report: The ethanol push is "an ecological disaster"


    The secret, dirty cost of Pres. Obama's green power push: The ethanol era has proven far more damaging to the environment than promised and much worse than the government admits today, according to an AP analysis. (also)


    As farmers rushed to find new places to plant corn, they wiped out millions of acres of conservation land, destroyed habitat and polluted water supplies, the report says; 5M acres of land set aside for conservation have vanished on Obama's watch.


    Government mandates to increase ethanol production have helped drive up corn prices, leading to marginal land being farmed to produce the crop; in 2012, 44% of the U.S. corn crop was used for fuel, about twice the rate in 2006.
    12 Nov 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • On the bright side, Monsanto seed grows lusher crops providing more biomass per acre.


    If you hired '5 Guys And A Hoe' with their oxen-driven plows and heirloom seeds, we probably would have lost FIFTY million acres of "conservation" land.


    If you give me a minute, I'll bet I can find a website that says as much...


    12 Nov 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • IT


    Ethanol is the crowning achievement of government stupidity.


    Can you imagine anything more stupid than mandating that food producing resources (land) be diverted to subsidize and grow produce (corn) and then burn the food in cars?


    This sums it up: burn food in cars and use our money to subsidize it. Save nothing at the gas pump but pay 10 to 20 percent more at the grocery store.


    And they are not "Feeding the world." The corn goes to produce high-fructose corn syrup to sweeten Coke & Pepsi and salad dressing and other products. Also for corn oil from which hydrogenated oils are made from. So a good portion of the corn goes to produce diabetes causing high-fructose corn syrup and heart disease causing hydrogenated vegetable oil, then ethanol, then animal feed, then humans.


    I daily see freight trains with ADM tanker cars filled with "corn sweetener." The trains are about a half mile long. That's the outcome of chemical based agriculture: industrialized chemical food if you can call high-fructose corn syrup "food."


    You are right. The corn belt now looks like the landscape of Mars. It's a dead zone. The top soil is in the Gulf of Mexico - the Gulf is dead too.
    13 Nov 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • JW:


    Hey, make up your mind. Since your so terrified of corn as a major source ingredient for all kinds of imagined health risks, you should be thrilled they're burning all the evil stuff up in automobiles. You can't have it both ways.
    13 Nov 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John, what is the matter? This is really doom & gloom....are you okay? You know I'm from the great state of Iowa, and I get updates every week about how our farmer friends & my family are doing. I hate ethanol made from corn, and those sweeteners, but it's not going to wreck my life. Or anyone's really, don't eat that crap & don't buy ethanol gas ; )


    I just quit eating Halloween candy about a week ago. I feel so much better now, even my achey (yes, that is a word!) knees are less achey. And I have tons of energy. Sugar makes you ache & makes you tired.


    We've been thru a lot here in NJ. But we are not going to let it spoil Christmas/Hanukkah/Divali etc. Just wait, things are getting better. The Menlo Park mall was packed last Sunday.


    You have some really nice parks out there. I used to walk/run in the park, starting from Hancher then all along the river. My favorite bridge over the river is the one between Hancher & Stanley dorm. Sending you hugs ((( John )))
    13 Nov 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Achey Breaky Heart (thanks - I'll have that in my head for the rest of the day). ;) Sugar makes me stronger. RAWR! ;)
    13 Nov 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • That new song by Katy Perry is pretty good. I like watching the high school kids lip dubs, gotta give it these teens



    Keep on RAWRing!!
    13 Nov 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack


    It does seem like an apparent contradiction . . .


    ... but what I really don't like is chemical based food production to produce, not food, but a bio- chemical stock used for mass produced synthetic pseudo foods.


    "Terrified" is not the right word. Anger at a twisted system is more appropriate. Anger at the destroying of the environment to produce synthetic food - and I'm not even an environmentalist.


    Farmers themselves will admit that the corn produced is just empty calorie "filler." The soil was "farmed out" decades ago. No minerals or organic material is left in it.


    The soil that erodes and washes down to the Mississippi delta poisons the Gulf and has created a "dead zone" (because it's poisoned) that extends many miles out.


    Things are messed up so bad, that as I said to "dnorm1234" up above, that people are desensitized to the stuff that is going down in the world. People don't want to pay attention, because it might be disturbing to them.


    -- dnorm, you still lurking ?
    13 Nov 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Just a preview of Janet Yellen going before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday...
    12 Nov 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Not sure how this will affect the price of gold. Could be a good day for gold to start rallying. Especially the more contentious this hearing gets.
    13 Nov 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Wow! Just reading this off of Kitco.



    “I don’t think anybody has a very good model of what makes gold prices go up or down,” she said. “But, certainly, it is an asset that people want to hold when they are very fearful about (a) potential financial-market catastrophe or economic troubles and tail risks.


    “And, when there is financial-market turbulence, often we see gold prices rise as we see people flee into it.”


    Is this not a strong endorsement by Janet Yellen to buy gold?
    14 Nov 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Is Janet stacking?? Just asking...
    14 Nov 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • A closet stacker perhaps¡
    14 Nov 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Guys, the world is not ending tomorrow, or even next year. Don't worry, be happy.....things are not as bad as they seem.


    There are very few things I can control in my life. The Fed, national debt, what the prez & congress do are all beyond our grip. So let it go...take some time to enjoy the things in life that make you happy.


    Or make someone else happy.
    13 Nov 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Blu ,
    good advice,,


    I never mix politics with investing , it can sway judgement, and as you mentioned,, we literally have no control over these DC issues whether it be Obamacare or all of the other nonsense.
    13 Nov 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    I AGREE with you that MOST times you do not mix politics with investing. However the amount of money some families will have to lay out can cause all sorts of negative results within the markets.


    Some might have to sell stocks just to cover the insurance bill, or not invest and use that money to survive.


    Just thinking out loud...
    14 Nov 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Heeeeeere comes TWTR !
    14 Nov 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Anybody who's not at work or was able to watch or listen to Obama's change of mind care to give a synopsis that's hopefully more in depth than the brief article on Marketwatch I just read about maybe being able to keep my current insurance?
    14 Nov 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • 7415181,
    I saw the same headline and don't have any other details, nor have I heard the talking heads comments on this either, yet.


    Within the bill, now law, itself, and paraphrasing here, it states that no insured can be forced to cancel their current health insurance if they so choose to keep their insurance, which is what BHO promised in several speeches since 2010. However, within the law, it also makes it impossible for the insurer to offer the pre-OC law policies to the insured. End result is that millions are now forced off of their policies as a result of this law regardless of the insured's intent of keeping their policy. This little trickery was well known all the way back to 2010 by the administration and intentionally not communicated to the public.


    Now, after all of these policies have been cancelled, how can the government force these to be re-instated? It would have been much easier to issue this wavier months ago before policies were cancelled. Further, even if these policies can be reinstated now, will the insurance companies need to add the additional coverage levels mandated by OC to these policies? How will this effect the cost of these policies? Who will pick up these costs?


    I think that all of this happening now, starting with BHO's announcement on this today, is part of the administration's campaign to demonize private insurance for canceling policies, and then after BHO making this move today and being the "savior", and the confusion and trouble of policies getting re-instated or not, the private insurance companies will be blamed for all of this. The administrative costs to the insurance companies for all of this are likely pretty significant. Who pays for these costs?


    Those on the left will support BHO on this. Those on the right will see right through this political stunt. The question is will enough of the independents buy in to this trick and view the insurance companies as not only evil, but the greater evil between them and BHO/OC.


    Stay tuned. The plot thickens.
    14 Nov 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • What I did hear was a compromise from earlier BHO statements. The revised statement is as follows:
    "If you like your health insurance policy, you can keep your policy, COMA, for one more year, period."
    14 Nov 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A telling sign was Bill Clinton throwing the POTUS under the bus. I guess he is now officially a lame duck President.


    Wonder why Bill would do such a thing? Hillary ? Nah...
    14 Nov 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Look for Bill to "insert himself" in all the right places at just the right times for the next three years. Those with dirty minds, place stay on point with that comment.
    14 Nov 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ol' Billy Boy sure did look old in that interview piece... He did not age gracefully.
    14 Nov 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • He still has that influential and effective crooked index finger, and he isn't afraid to use it!
    14 Nov 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • nah!
    14 Nov 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Cigars can do that to you...Just sayin>>
    14 Nov 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So the POTUS bent a little here. However IF the insurance companies do indeed allow their clients back it is ONLY for one more year and they aren't allowed to sign up anyone new.


    I interpret this now in the hands of the insurance companies.. The baton was passed!


    Think the mid term elections has anything to do with this??


    Nah !!
    14 Nov 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • It shows how utterly incompetent our politicians are. Every single one of them.


    A bunch of out-of-touch, rich lawyers. This is what we have as a "representative government".
    14 Nov 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Well, I got a week before open enrollment ends and have to sign back up with my hospital. JBT, will you be contacting your wife's insurance company to see if they changed their mind? I'm going to call up BC/BS tomorrow and see if there's a hope I can stay on my current plan.
    14 Nov 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    You mentioned "culling" yesterday and where to start. I have an idea??
    14 Nov 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • User-


    Changed their mind about what?




    Perfect place to start. Tar and feathers for the lot of them.
    14 Nov 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • JBT, sorry about not clarifying. I believe that you posted that your wife had her insurance cancelled after I started wailing about my plan getting cancelled.


    Technically, mine runs to the end of the year, so I'm wondering if there's a hope in hell that BC/BS might continue it next year with Prezs speech today. Curious if you guys have contacted her insurance company yet and what the results were?
    14 Nov 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • I am still of the opinion that everything so far is pretty much on plan as it stood back on 3/23/10. I believe the plan in 2010 for this rollout included a flawed internet site rollout for OC sign-up & the 1-year extension for private policies to be extended AFTER millions of policies were to be cancelled under this plan.


    This was preconceived. Note that the law states that individuals were allowed to keep their current plans once OC was implemented. At the same time the law changed the coverage requirements that insurance providers needed to include on old/new policies under OC. Also remember that the Administration is on federal record as forecasting 91+ million policies would be cancelled as a result of this law. This information was never made public, until a FOX news report a couple weeks ago.


    Careful. These guys know what they are doing including their planned "flawed" rollout. Hillarycare had strong support back in 1993 before they came clean on what their program would require. They were fairly upfront and honest of their intentions on their program and support tanked, Dem's lost the Senate & House (Dem's controlled the House 1952-94) as a result of this aggressive rollout. They learned from their 1993-4 mistakes and have made the adjustments we are seeing this time. Clinton almost lost the '96 re-election (thank you H.Ross Perot).
    14 Nov 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well the reporters didn't like the POTUS last sentence today !!


    "President Obama closed his health care press conference on Thursday by taking one last shot at the reporters he was speaking to.


    “The things that go right, you guys aren’t going to write about," he said.


    To say that might not have been the best thing to do on a day when Obama was apologizing for the botched rollout of his health care law, but, if Obama was looking for some stray validation, he would have been wise to look away from Twitter.


    The reviews for his press conference were negative, to say the least."


    Sounds like a desperate POTUS to me. ALLIENIATE the reporters isn't a smart thing to do..
    14 Nov 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • User,


    No, they are continuing coverage into 2014. She just did her open enrollment. Her HR person hinted that company-sponsored insurance may go away after the upcoming policy year. We're safe for one more calendar year, though with an 18% (18.8% to be more accurate) increase in monthly premiums.


    I'm sure BC/BS would be more than happy to continue to provide the insurance. It's the guys in the company boardroom who may decide it's gotten too expensive.
    14 Nov 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks. Looks like I'm in a different boat since I purchased insurance outside of my employer last year.
    14 Nov 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • OAG


    I got a year to wait before voting a straight-line ticket (which I've not done before).


    I've got a week to plan my finances for the next year due to the insurance crap.
    14 Nov 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • You know, that was a jerk reply and apologize. Just stressed.
    14 Nov 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The truth never needs an apology.. Sometimes it hurts !
    14 Nov 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • I feel for you 7415181 and everyone else on this. I also still believe that we are still on course right now for a disastrous 2014 because of how this new law effects all of us, particularly those in the middle class that are at or above the subsidy-line for receiving health care benefits. Even then, there are still excessive deductibles on the plans that the poor will receive as well.


    This subject is extremely relevant to cover as many of us have, on an investment site like SA in determining your financial and investment future and the likely impact it will have on the economy. This cost-bomb to the middle-class will have significant consequences to the economy and personal finance in my opinion.


    One thing that I think we will see is an expanding lower class, and shrinking middle class which will be more noticeable in 2014+ than it has been in our lifetimes. If the law stands pretty much as is, there will be a lot of middle class that will simply end up uninsured. A number of the previously uninsured will be receiving insurance under medicaid or subsidy. 2015+ the penalty for not carrying OC minimum insurance will accelerate year-to-year, but I also believe we will all be on gov't single-payer health care as early as 2015-16.
    14 Nov 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • OAG,


    Good points, all. The responsible will constrain spending to manage more expensive premiums. Others will get the bare minimum coverage, knowing full well they can chapter-7?/9? to get out of paying an unexpected large medical bill.


    I harp on this too often, but imagine - over $95,000 to have my kid in the hospital for 6 days. He did not get cut open. He did not receive a transplant. He laid in a bed and received occasional albuterol (it was an asthma attack that made us take him in) treatments for 5 of those 6 days. That's it, and it was $95,000+.


    Had we not had insurance, that would have been a bankruptcy for us.


    If insurance keeps going up at the rate it has, we may drop ourselves into the irresponsible ranks and just roll the dice. We could get part-time jobs then. Maybe food stamps and an EBT card, too. The free insurance will just be some of the icing on the cake.
    14 Nov 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • I'm still not clear as to if you decline insurance out of the gate, are subject to penalty, but then sign up for OC while you are sitting in the Emergency Room waiting for treatment, how that would be handled.


    Shouldn't need a waiting period since pre-existing conditions do not effect coverage under OC. Of course for the time being it may take you several days to successfully sign-up for OC.
    14 Nov 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • There's some kind of lag.... Those that have signed up in some fashion (106k or so people) have until 12/15 to make a payment on the premium so it will be in force on 1/1/2014.


    As to your ER scenario, probably best to contact a BK attorney before trying to save your butt by getting an insurance policy on the spot.
    14 Nov 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Is anyone suggesting a massive market correction next year or just business as usual??


    Seems to me almost all are talking about reigning in spending...
    14 Nov 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • I can't imagine the labor participation rate/wages increasing in 2014, but rather decrease. I do think that we are currently in a very anemic recovery and that in some areas of the country, probably a reasonable recovery right now.


    I try to compare this to the housing bubble crash in 07. As I recall, everything was going along relatively well while the housing bubble was near capacity. It is my opinion that the sharp spike in fuel prices at that time was the spark that ignited the explosion in housing. A lot of the sub-prime loans went over the cliff as a result of the high fuel costs imo and the house of cards collapsed from there. The bubble would have popped at some point soon anyway, but I still believe the fuel cost spike was the catalyst at that time.


    If the cost of living, primarily due to health care, to the middle-class, and even upper-lower class, increase at levels equal to or greater than the fuel spike that burst the housing bubble, 2014 will not be a good year. I just cannot see how this can work out with minimal overall impact to the economy.


    One advantage we might have now is that the economy was going pretty well when the housing bubble burst, and is much worse now, so we may have a shorter distance to fall this time then last. Employment was strong then, and very weak right now, so I'm just hoping things don't turn much worse from where they are.


    2014 recession? I think so.
    14 Nov 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Watch consumer stocks for 1Q14 results. 2Q14 may be even more telling. I'm thinking (WMT), (TGT), (MCD), and maybe (KR), too. Stocks like that. Big drop in SSS - recession coming right up. And it will be forever known as the Obamacession. The dems will own it so completely, and it will change the political landscape for a long time.


    I'll caveat that with the fact that my predictions are just as valid and accurate as everybody elses.
    14 Nov 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • outright recession in '14 ?? - Far from it ... Sorry i'm not n that camp at all.


    I will be posting my thoughts on the first look at '14 and the markets in my blog over the weekend ..


    Stay tuned
    14 Nov 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    Just read an article that both Wall Mart and Kohl's turned in disappointing sales figures already..



    The Dem's are in trouble next November. People will just be on the brink of losing their healthcare again. That is if the insurance companies do backtrack this year.


    I haven't read yet that they will or plan on it.. I am sure they were well aware of this before the POTUS spoke..
    14 Nov 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • I still do think that the stock market could have a good year in 2014, or at least a good start. I do not see any tapering to QE, and likely even an increase to QE in 2014, particularly if economic numbers are in fact weak and getting worse in early 2014.


    So the stock market could still be the only real good news as it could continue to be pushed to artificial highs off of increased QE. I am still on the sidelines in this market as I think the S&P at 1800; is too high to risk entry right now because when it does crash, it may not see 1800 again for several years. My entry point in the market right now would probably be when the S&P is south of 7-800 right now. But there may be money to be made yet pre-crash.
    14 Nov 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OAG


    You are calling for a very large correction one day then? I agree that the QE'S might increase. But some here feel that has no impact on the markets long term.


    What little I know I tend to disagree and think it will have a very large impact.


    My 2 cents!
    14 Nov 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • My ordinary average brain tells me that all of this excess spontaneous fiat is ending up inflating the stock market. This is discussed on this article:


    I may have shared this with you before, but it talks about past stock market bubbles as a result of excess fiat. There seems to be a pattern here.


    Inflated stock prices without the earnings to support the bubble will cause a bust eventually.


    FEAR mentioned that average Joe is not driving this market right now. I agree with that comment. Big money and QE is driving the market in terms of record market highs, not avg-Joe. Average Joe and the middle class provide earnings for companies. If Avg Joe is forced to spend a greater portion of his disposable income thus reducing available money, businesses will suffer and lose sales/profits Average Joe and the middle class is who drives sales and profits for businesses.


    Therefore, I do believe that P/E ratio's will spread to levels that will result in an eventual larger correction or collapse in the markets.
    14 Nov 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Oag,
    your assessment : Inflated stock prices without the earnings to support the bubble will cause a bust eventually. (Please Note: We are currently at record S & P earnings and this is hardly a "bubble" )


    With all due respect markets have had Bull and Bear cycles over its history. To suggest this market or any other may EVENTUALLY bust --IMHO isn't a market strategy. & obviously if the market continues on its upward path , the correction will be steeper, that is obvious .. What im hearing is more of an emotional response to one's views of the economy , the fed , obamacare, et al ,,


    As we have seen, those views have been a detriment to the majority that chose to follow an emotional path and sit out this market.


    My strategy has been to follow what the market is telling you , the changes taking place in the global economies, the secular changes here in the US that will have a major impact on the future.


    If you choose to do so , i have detailed my views and strategy in my blog for review.. ..


    Best of luck with your investments ..
    15 Nov 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • thing I'm confident about in 2014 is the price of PMs rising significantly. Everything else is anybody's guess. I have no doubt a massive market correction is coming. But the question is when. However I do not see business as usual in 2014, though it will be presented as such.


    Best regards to all.
    20 Nov 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BIZ


    May I ask your reason why for all to read?


    Thanks !
    20 Nov 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I'm not alone believing the ravage of continued and accelerated QE will start taking its toll next year, no taper, the petrodollar is going to be out of a job which is to say world reserve currency status is in real trouble, nations holding US bonds and dollars could dump those dollars on the exchanges at the same time real interest rates start moving up on their own - Fed loosing control of that tool - a reliable source says at 4% its game over for bonds, I say that seems low Volcker went three times higher than that - he says Volcker was in control of his rate. These are interesting times. The stock markets start to smell like toast. Then, at what point during all of this chaotic change does the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble explode like stepping on a pregnant spider?


    It is likely this unravel will start to show itself during 2014 (after Q1) and continue into 2015 while silver and gold respond favorably.


    But, please don't get me started :-)
    -Actually thanks for offering the space for me to vent.


    Very best,
    20 Nov 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BIZ


    Eurozone business activity losing momentum


    As expected, Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI has edged up to a 29-month high of 51.5 in November from 51.3 in October.


    However, services slipped to 50.9 from 51.6 and missed consensus of 51.9.


    Composite output declined to 51.5 from 51.9 and fell short of forecasts of 52.


    Manufacturing output edged down to 52.8 from 52.9.


    "It looks like momentum is being lost again," says Markit. "Deflationary forces may be gathering," while growth outside the "big two" of Germany and France "slowed to near-stagnation." French activity actually contracted again.


    I THOUGHT Europe was off life support. Am I mistaken >>
    21 Nov 2013, 04:24 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I think the patient is still critical.


    You know as well as anyone that the spin is spun until it no longer resembles yarn. We're hard pressed to know if up is down or down is up. The inherent complexities here only serve to further confuse.


    Nothing resembles normal to me any more except what we've come to accept as normal, which in itself is not normal. I now tread with extreme caution and only hope I don't miss an opportunity being too defensive.


    Wait! Has anyone seen my lunch?


    Very best,
    23 Nov 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    You have been quiet. I trust your judgment. Do you think OC can have any effect on investing next year?
    14 Nov 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    turmoil, volatility for sure as always from the DC shenanigans.. Please keep in mind that the "average joe" while hurt by this Obamacare nightmare , isn't driving this market.. so in the end it will all go away. Also there is a chance that they actually may make things right..


    As of the moment I'm not using the noise from this to change my perspective on the markets for next year.


    don't forget the massive baby boomer crowd that is retired and retiring that have their healthcare paid by their employer as part of their retirement that isn't remotely affected by this .. They will have more to invest and "say' as to where the markets go than the person struggling to get by.. Im not saying all is "right" with that , but it's simply the cold facts of the situation..
    14 Nov 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    "don't forget the massive baby boomer crowd that is retired and retiring that have their healthcare paid by their employer as part of their retirement that isn't remotely affected by this "


    actually THIS IS NOT TRUE. I have read and some have told me that their health insurance that was suppose to be guaranteed for life is changing. Not sure if they have to contribute, but they aren't getting what they expected to get until the passed away.
    14 Nov 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    It seems to be holding true for myself, friends, and associates, and clients of mine and all of my colleagues .. yes some have to make minimal contributions now , but none seem to be involved in the obamacare fiasco..
    14 Nov 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    Good for you guys!
    14 Nov 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • I'll say this - the dems shoulda capitulated when the reps wanted a 1 year delay. They could have dotted the i's and crossed the t's in that time. As it stands, they're losing a portion of their base. It reminds me of that black woman that was thinking Obama was going to make her car note disappear.


    A lot of people are waking up and realizing rates are going up, not down. I am surprised they are not on his case more for saying the average family would save $2,500/year in premium payments.


    It would all be very comical if it were not so tragic.
    14 Nov 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    Clinton picked the right time to bury him, This may fall apart over time. But he sure set the stage for Hillary that's for sure..


    Is it "culling" time
    15 Nov 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Here is the spin by Juan Williams of FOX, that OAG was predicting - that the insurance companies would be blamed and demonized and Obama would be held innocent. I just saw this article though it was published 11/5.


    Juan Williams of Fox News article:


    "Insurance cancelled? Don't blame Obama or the ACA, blame America's insurance companies"



    As I wrote in chapter 37 on Nov 3, this will be a crisis by the end of the month.


    It won't wait until the next election. It will be a crisis NOW.


    Oh, by the way here is a new economic ratio:
    The "Policy Cancellation to Marketplace enrollment" ratio.


    Its somewhere around 3,000,000 to 50,000, or 60:1


    They are accomplishing exactly the opposite of what they said they would do.


    This disaster may be unfolding according to a script, but I don't think Obama wrote the script. I think he is genuinely dumbfounded and just now coming out of denial. I think he actually thought that the web site would get fixed by the end of the month just because he decreed it.


    My - it's interesting that Bill Clinton has interjected his elder statesman perspective, that Obama should "honor" his pledge. That pretty much leaves BHO no choice. Will he fix it by decree (executive order?) I'm sure they won't let the Republicans fix it.


    Of course Hillary is just waiting for it to be her turn.


    A third party that repudiates all of this is way overdue.
    14 Nov 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks JW,
    A few observations. Juan Williams certainly meets the criteria to become the next mayor of Toronto! His experience with NPR certainly helped him to mature as a good independent thinker.


    I'll say it again, all the dems/media need to do is shore up their base and hopefully hold their own with the independents. They can start coming forward apologizing for websites and people that mis-interpreted BHO's keep your insurance statement, and now that the horse is out of the barn, tell people they can have their pre OC insurance AFTER millions of policies have been cancelled.


    Now the stage is set to attack the private insurance companies. Most on the left will bite on this move. Yes OC is a program that is flawed and is having rollout problems, but look at the private insurance companies. They are worse! Thats their strategy, and it has been their strategy for the last 3+ years. Now they execute the plan.


    The website will be ready AFTER the private insurance companies are successfully attacked, and the left/base directs their attention that way. Polling data and public feedback will help dictate when enough sheeple are mad at the insurance industry, and then the functioning website can happen.


    And no, BHO did not write this script, it was handed to him. Just as this bill was not written by BHO/Reid, or Pelosi. This bill/law is the same bill that was called hillarycare, 20-years ago. Sure they probably added a few hundred pages to it since then, possibly made a few changes here and there but it is the same old bill.


    The Bill Clinton appearance may or may not have been part of the script, (I believe WJC is part of the script) but the TIMING of this was well planned and executed. WJC did not make this statement on honoring insurance policies a month or so ago, because it was too early to play that card This is a good political move to support Hillary, and many will probably bite on that move to help her politically. This was a good set-up to then bring in Obama a day or so later to grant this 1-year extension. I'm still saying the actors are still on script and the timing of these moves is being fairly strictly adhered to.
    14 Nov 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • I'm sure Pelosi still hasn't read the bill to find out what's in it yet.


    There will be/must be a period of chaos and great uncertainty and denial of coverage, so people will cry out for the saving healthcare insurance that they have been trained to be dependent on.


    [The mind set is, "if I can't get coverage, I will die." I'm not trying to make fun of anyone, this is just my observation. I know I'm going to die someday. I'm just not going to go out on chemo drugs - even if they were free.]


    Yes, OAG, the wave of cancellations has begun. It can't be stopped on a dime. Cancellation letters from insurers are going out even now. Employers have already made decisions to cancel their group policies because they are too expensive now. Employees are deciding to go without. It will be a period of chaos going into the holiday season.


    I will be watching for your scenario to unfold.


    IT -
    I don't think it will be good for the insurers as an investment. It will be up in the air for them for months to come. They won't know how to design a policy. Their policy sales will drop way off.


    What is the "End game" - the oligarch's goal?


    WMarkW commented (chpt 37) that they would like " make all the people who work in the healthcare industry, whether as providers, insurers, shift them from private employment to government employment." I agree, they want control of this.


    OAG commented, " the motive from the left is to control this large segment of the economy" (chpt 37). I agree, they want to "own" this segment.


    My statement of their ultimate goal is to turn the average citizen into a healthcare "consumer" who is completely dependent on expensive drug-based health care which will be controlled and dispensed by official government contractors. There will be no other place to go for it.


    There will be no alternatives allowed. No competition. It will be by the government and for the government.


    Create dependence and exert control. That is the methodology and outcome.


    Sounds similar to the pusher/junkie relationship.


    The only defense as I stated in my blog is not to need it. To not be dependent on it.
    15 Nov 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Obamacare "fix" puts insurers in a tough spot


    Pres. Obama's administrative fix for health insurance cancellations may sound simple - allow insurers to extend their plans for another year - but it's anything but easy.


    "Changing the rules after health plans have already met the requirements of the law could destabilize the market and result in higher premiums for consumers," says the head of the top insurer trade group. "Premiums have already been set for next year based on an assumption of when consumers will be transitioning to the new marketplace."


    "The logistics of doing it with just a few days left in the policy year are extremely difficult," says a former CEO of Oklahoma's largest health system. The fix "shifts the blame and makes [the insurance companies] the culprits."


    Aetna (AET) says it will need close cooperation from state insurance regulators to implement the fix.


    Beyond the administrative burden, Citi analyst Carl McDonald says the change presents a risk of building a less healthy and less profitable pool of insurance buyers; the potential deterioration of the exchange market will pose a risk for WellPoint (WLP), Humana (HUM) and Health Net (HNT), which pursued aggressive exchange strategies for 2014


    14 Nov 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OAK


    So what can throw a monkey wrench into this plan??
    14 Nov 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • They was a saying in the late 60's:


    "What if they gave a war and nobody showed up?"
    15 Nov 2013, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • I think this OC battle should be fought on (2) fronts.
    On the Federal side and as 2014 unfolds, this law will be extremely costly to the federal deficit and federal debt. The "House" needs to hold firm on the next round of debt ceiling and budget talks and include OC in all debt/budget discussions.


    Medical providers will really start feeling the pinch in 2014+ as more and more patients show up in emergency rooms with no insurance. It will be interesting to compare a now & then ratio of insured/uninsured emergency patients at various emergency facilities. Who is going to bail these institutions out? The Federal Reserve?


    The second area that this battle should be fought and hopefully there already is some behind the scenes action happening on this is through the states. I think it could be effective and probably even be legally binding for 33+ states to come together to overwrite much of the OC policies and set their own health care insurance requirements at the state levels incorporating private insurance participation.


    I have no confidence that the current BHO/Reid/Boehner, 3-headed monster will do anything to reverse OC. The House may continue a weak effort to delay or slow this down. I do think our greatest hope is for 2/3's of the states to organize and fight this. Whether that happens or whether it works or not, I think that this is where our best opportunity lies for derailing this monster.
    15 Nov 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe some good will come out of it. The darker side of me is hoping:


    -Obamacare is a miserable failure.
    -Insurers go bankrupt
    -"Healthcare providers" go bankrupt / exit the business


    Maybe a return to the days of a Dr. showing up at your house with the little black bag, and when he or she leaves it's affordable to pay the man/woman for their services directly out of your own pocket. Not necessarily like that, but you get the point.


    The whole system is broken, and a "reset" to start from scratch may be the best outcome we could ever hope for.
    15 Nov 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • "Obamacare is a miserable failure.
    -Insurers go bankrupt
    -"Healthcare providers" go bankrupt / exit the business"


    These items were all on the Administration's playbook or script in 2010. The brilliance of their plan was to pass OC for the sole purpose of destroying the healthcare system. Once it is destroyed, it is easy to implement a single-payer system.


    Under the long term plan of single-payer, you will see most/all of the medical providers will have capped incomes and be members of "public" unions. Better than average pay, excellent benefits, 100% paid for retirement...Walking in to a large medical institution in the future will resemble walking in to a larger city post office right now.


    Hopefully the red/purple states pull together and organize their plan to oppose all of this stuff. The time has come for them to make their move.
    15 Nov 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Just a note before I go to work - I wrote that paragraph about the "cancellations"last night (10:45 pm comment) in the comment directly above. This morning they reported what I wrote as news. The cancellation damage is being done. The POTUS's fix is being declared unworkable by the insurance industry.


    UPDATE : "Policy Cancellation to Marketplace enrollment" ratio.
    New numbers:
    4,200,000 cancellations: 50,0000Marketplace enrollments
    New ratio is 84:1
    84 cancellations for each new Marketplace enrollment.


    Way to go BHO
    15 Nov 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • He's the best and the brightest, you know. He shines brighter than his Nobel Peace Prize.
    15 Nov 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Anyone still believe in Santa Clause (tapering)..?


    Nov Empire State Survey: -2.21vs. +5.5 expected, +1.52prior.


    Not happening in 2013...Most likely won't happen in 2014 due to the Nov elections..


    You heard it here first !! lol


    Stackin Yellen still needs time to accumulate her stash once she saw the mess Ben left her!
    15 Nov 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TAMPAT, DOUG, TOM, HEBBA, ERIC....


    Drop in for a comment . I am sure you all have something to add..


    15 Nov 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A friend who posts here occasionally, FOCAL POINT, is a little under the weather.


    Just want to wish him a speedy recovery and our thoughts are with you from me and the misses.


    Get well soon !!
    15 Nov 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry to hear - hope he feels better soon.


    Hopefully it is not portfolio related. ;)


    16 Nov 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Best wishes to Focal...
    16 Nov 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Hey Focal Point, feel better soon!!


    Lots of allergies & colds going around here. Leaves are full of mold, which some people are very allergic to, plus ragweed just released a ton of pollen in the last couple of weeks. Spent all weekend working on the yard. Leaves still coming down.....but this year at least we will be done before Thanksgiving.


    Wild weather over the past weekend.


    18 Nov 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, Can they kill OCARE or is it here to say?

    17 Nov 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • It's here to stay, unless the Reupblicans can field a candidate that can defeat Hillary, which won't happen. So yes, it's here to stay.


    The people who pay for stuff will continue to pay more, and the people who get free stuff will continue to get more free stuff.
    17 Nov 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • They will not "kill" it right away because they are still in denial and actually still believe it will work. They will kill it AFTER it has died due to no one buying the policies except for people who were previously uninsurable.


    84:1 cancellations to enrollments
    17 Nov 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Markets seem listless the last few days..


    Anyone own anything the want to bring to the group ?
    19 Nov 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • IT, hello again...


    For those folks who focus on income, I own and recommend (BPOP) preferred shares. I have some of the P and O shares. (OFG) might be another pick for preferreds - I currently have some of the B shares.


    Both of these are Puerto Rican banks. Puerto Rico has problems, but we've heard this refrain before regarging American banks like JPM. They keep on ticking, and if you're not a fan of the common stock, the preferreds with a decent dividend might make you happy.


    These are not without risk, but that goes for anything. I would point out that the preferreds are very thinly traded - bpopo doesn't even trade on some days so it would be smart for those with more money than I have to buy in small chunks over a period of time.


    I have followed BPOP for over a year now. They have stated many times that they wish to exit TARP. The bank does have a postitive pe. They don't get to pay a dividend on the common until they exit TARP, so...


    OFG I haven't followed as long, but the common stock pays a dividend and currently has a positive pe. That's enough for me to buy the preferreds.
    19 Nov 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, update for 11/20 @ 1600,


    BPOPO up close to 7% on shy of 900 shares trading for the day. I'd like to think that wasn't my comment above that caused it, but who knows. No news catalyst I saw. The last time I mentioned the shares in this blog it bounced in a similar way, but I was upset because it did so a day or so before I had the cash to buy some.


    Anywho, if it was my comment that got someone excited enough to buy some, I'm still holding my shares and plan on doing so unless the price goes back up to near the 52 week high, which is a ways off. I bought in when the market yield was about 9% and currently it's 8% which still makes me happy and if you bought some today, I hope that yield makes you happy as well. Just keep in mind that the P shares will be called before the O shares (and the O shares may never be called...).


    I made a comment to IT that shows up below. I stated I sold off my psec shares. This is true, but I still like the company. I do not know if this will help anyone out, but one reason I did so is that I don't understand a bdc well enough to write about why I would or wouldn't buy into one. That goes for a bunch of other investment types as well.


    I no longer want to buy what others recommend in an article or post unless I can immediately research it and come to a similar conclusion. I want to be able to stand on my own two feet. I suppose that's the main reason I gravitate towards preferreds and cefs - they're fairly easy to figure out if they're trading at a value.
    20 Nov 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER


    Thanks for the input. I am still positive on (PSEC) for a while now as the dividend seems safe as of now. Tough to pass up 11% !!
    19 Nov 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I sold off my psec earlier this month - will try to pick it back up when it drops below $11 or so. I think I made almost the same trade two summers ago - got dividends along the way and sold for a fair profit. Picked it back up several months later during the debt crisis or whatever was going on at the time.
    20 Nov 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like


    Gold drawn into rate-fixing probe


    The U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority has expanded its probe into rate-setting to include a review of how gold benchmarks are set, reports Bloomberg. The review is preliminary, cautions a source, and hasn't yet risen to the level of a formal investigation.


    Not known is which benchmark is under scrutiny, but the London gold fixing, which determines the spot price of gold, is set twice per day.


    19 Nov 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NOW ADD FAKE EMPLOYMENT FIGURES !!!



    Does this ever end?
    19 Nov 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Facade is crumbling, the cracks are visible to anyone who is paying attention to it. What is next? A war? Sudden attack by Afghanistan?


    This guy should go to gas chamber, that's it. Lawlessness should be stopped, otherwise we're all facing dark ages.


    My best regards, God bless, humankind shell prevail!
    20 Nov 2013, 03:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » KAV


    Good to hear from you ..Keep in touch .
    20 Nov 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » HERE WE GO AGAIN !!


    Bullard: Dec. taper on table; Nov. jobs report key


    A December taper is on the table, says St. Louis Fed chief Jim Bullard (appearing on Bloomberg radio), and a strong November jobs report would increase those chances. It's hawkish talk for Bullard, who has taken a significantly more dovish tone of late. As for rates though, he sees the Fed as keeping ZIRP in place even after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.


    Bullard's also got an idea about taking Fed central planning to a whole new level, calling for a study on whether negative interest rates on reserves could be a tool to boost bank lending.
    20 Nov 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Somehow it appears that the QE taper, and the website stories are somehow related. Fair to say that they run in the same direction. So if the taper begins in December, the healthcare website should also be up and fully functional.


    The good news is that Bullard is hinting December taper, and Obama was recently hinting that the healthcare website will be up and running by the end of November.
    20 Nov 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Fully functional huh?


    Yup.. Just as I thought !
    20 Nov 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • OAG
    Or maybe you could say that since the Marketplace web site won't be functional, that QE taper won't be happening. At least not based on functioning as a sign.


    This AM we find out that it is 30 to 40% uncompleted and untested.
    20 Nov 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • As in "Behold, A fully operational 'Death Star' "
    20 Nov 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • To make matters worse, they took the picture of the averagely attractive female off the front page. Now there is absolutely, 100% no reason to visit the site.


    Maybe they should put a wheel you can spin and potentially win a prize on it. They could charge a small fee for additional spins...
    20 Nov 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MOVING ON !!

    20 Nov 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
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