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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What is going to be the catalyst for a correction where people can enter or a correction where people should stay away?
    Question from a lurker.

     

    Appreciate some comments...

     

    Thanks !
    20 Nov 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Its never EZ to predict whether the next correction will be 5% or 15% .

     

    I make a lot of suggestions on my blog , all of my purchases are documented there and if one wishes to follow along they will get the idea that I try and take individual situations and invest at all different times , always looking for what I believe is value at the time.

     

    Trying to predict the "exact" moment when to pull the trigger during a corrective phase in the market can't be done.. For me it simply depends on how that individual name ,i'm following looks at the time,, I.E., i just bought GS,added JPM, XOM, CVX, and TGT all when i believed they represented value .. Those buys are documented there..

     

    I cover a lot of this on my blog ,
    http://bit.ly/ZuafPa

     

    Here are two articles - a market update on 11/16 ,
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and the other , S & P 1800 " What to do now" .
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Other prior commentary there also deals with investors who have not participated.. One reason I started the blog was to avoid having to retype my comments every time I wished to reply to someone here on SA.. That was quickly becoming too time consuming..

     

    The blog also helps with my research as the Pm's I get along with the comments adds value for me.. Latest example of that - a reader asked about the homebuilding sector.. It 's not on my radar , but i was able to dig up a report that just might be helpful in the next month or so .. it's in the comment section of the 11/16 market update..
    20 Nov 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh, I forgot to add this for Micky D investors.. Some big changes coming !!

     

    http://aol.it/1atYXhv
    20 Nov 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Great. I don't think they fuq up my orders enough as it is with 2 lanes. Please add more so I never get what I order. Thanks.
    20 Nov 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    How about at least having the fries hot ??

     

    I really don't eat there much but it will now seem like a drive in movie with all those windows...

     

    Desperation?
    20 Nov 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    I get 'famine or famine', typically - either day old fries that are dry and chewy, or lava-hot fries that you can't eat for a half-hour, by which time the sandwich is gone and you don't want the fries anymore. :)

     

    I don't eat there much, myself. Especially in this year of "very little work for JohnBinTN". :/
    20 Nov 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WAS EXPECTING THIS.. Markets were getting a little frothy and giddy so the FED had to make in confusing..

     

    "2:08 PM

     

    FOMC minutes: Taper could happen without labor improvement

     

    The Fed could slow its asset purchases even without improvement in labor markets, according to just-released minutes from the FOMC's October 29-30 policy meeting.

     

    The committee also discussed actions to signal its intention to keep short-term rates low for a long time even with the taper - particularly a cut in the interest rate paid on excess reserves. Most thought the benefit of such an action to be small, other than as a signal of policy intentions."

     

    NOT HAPPENING !!
    20 Nov 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Not much of a sell off. Less than 1%.

     

    The real movement and direction will depend on the next Fed media announcement. They'll announce they were just kidding so the market doesn't slide. Or let it slide a little, then announce a delay in taper - then actually surprise with the taper.

     

    I'm tired of the headgame, but today's FOMC meeting minutes won't be the end of it for the next month. They won't let the word out and that's that, and let us all just switch to guessing on 'when'.

     

    Anyone else have a guess on what's next with this...

     

    @IT
    Gold's going down some more, before the next announcement and it turns around. Could be Monday, Tuesday at the latest. I'm not betting real money on it though - not in a betting mood...
    20 Nov 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    I just changed my portfolio to a huge gamble ( not really) . It is my opinion todays $30 buck gold sell off was waaay overdone and I will get a bounce just like you suggest.

     

    Glad this is monopoly money !! lol

     

    Had to show up BSF as a bigger gambler.. Haven't heard from her. Again she was sighted playing 5 hands of black jack at the same time !! Wearing a Hillary 2016 hat !

     

    Had to be her...Had to be.

     

    Any others want to chime in about the FEDS minutes?? Look what interest rates are doing folks.. Creeping up ...
    20 Nov 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    I like to see metals go down. I like to see Apple go down. It makes me feel good inside. :)
    20 Nov 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » wishing me bad luck??? ;0
    21 Nov 2013, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    No, I just like giving bugs and and cultists a hard time. ;) Silver is actually almost down to a point where I will buy some more.
    21 Nov 2013, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    I posted this elsewhere & it's still what i think on the FOMC mins:

     

    If this was a relationship, I'd break up with it. It doesn't communicate well, doesn't know what it wants, and strings everyone along with mixed messages.

     

    Good, it's time to taper. It's current hurting the people's confidence & with it the economy. And yes they will, same as the last two QEs.

     

    Didn't they just say no taper soon, and the markets went up over that. The markets aren't down much today, way less than 1%. Investors aren't believing them... waiting till they actually, really, do taper.

     

    On gold - this time I think it's only going to be a little oversold. The taper talk will be sobering for a while on it. (Of course there's hosts of other factors I haven't a clue of, that could effect it.) Virtual money is easier...
    20 Nov 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    I will add this comment to your above statement. My opinion is they (THE FED) really don't know what to do. Hence the head bobs to keep us guessing.

     

    If indeed they are rendered useless to do anything then watch out!
    20 Nov 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    I do find all the Fed hysteria fascinating, as it's seemingly overridden any common sense about the likely causes or effects of QE cessation. Let's examine a few scenarios for QE tapering and see what would likely transpire for equities and bonds:

     

    Scenario #1:
    QE has been holding the entire economy aloft, and any reduction or cessation would result in an immediate decline in real business and possibly commence a new recession:
    Equities - down sharply
    Bonds - momentary dip, then up a bunch (i.e., interest rates down, as investors flee equities for safer Treasuries and bonds)

     

    Scenario #2:
    Aside from some modest effect on interest rates, QE hasn't been doing much of anything, as most of it funnels directly into excess reserves. It's cessation is mostly a non-event:
    Equities - temporary minor downswing, followed by recovery
    Bonds - momentary initial decline in prices, as interest rates rise, then plateau

     

    Scenario #3:
    Excess reserves suddenly start getting funneled into loan creation, and the economy heats up, creating both higher growth and increased inflation:
    Equities - temporary pause, then up significantly
    Bonds - longer, deeper sell-off, as rates rise due to loan demand

     

    Take your pick.
    20 Nov 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    I'll take door #1.
    20 Nov 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9436) | Send Message
     
    #3 because in the end the Business Cycle Gods will deem it so...
    21 Nov 2013, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I thought about this ...

     

    Eurozone business activity losing momentum !!!!!

     

    As expected, Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI has edged up to a 29-month high of 51.5 in November from 51.3 in October.

     

    However, services slipped to 50.9 from 51.6 and missed consensus of 51.9.

     

    Composite output declined to 51.5 from 51.9 and fell short of forecasts of 52.

     

    Manufacturing output edged down to 52.8 from 52.9.

     

    "It looks like momentum is being lost again," says Markit. "Deflationary forces may be gathering," while growth outside the "big two" of Germany and France "slowed to near-stagnation." French activity actually contracted again.

     

    I THOUGHT Europe was off life support. Am I mistaken >>
    21 Nov 2013, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    The EU's numbers are mostly wishful thinking. France, one of the supposedly stronger countries is in bad shape, and that is just the tip of the iceberg.
    25 Nov 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    great commentary as usual.. The reaction to the fed's every statement is downright comical ... I am of the opinion that the initial knee jerk reaction when the Fed starts to slow down asset purchases will present a buying opportunity..

     

    IMO -- Throw out scenario 1

     

    Scenario 2 is what I believe to be most plausible and as of now have structured my forward looking outlook into '14 with that as a distinct possibility..

     

    Your thoughts ??
    20 Nov 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    In my opinion virtually no chance it's option #1, and option #3 cannot happen as long as there is active assault on business from this Administration, so that leaves option #2, as the most likely scenario. As such, I see a portfolio balanced between high-yielding equities and similar bonds as the most logical set-up. I'd move toward more bonds in #1 and toward more growth and commodity equities in #3, but absent those scenarios, I want to maximize yield. Everybody seems to be awaiting either accelerated growth or economic reversal, neither of which I see as the most likely outcome.
    20 Nov 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Door #2.

     

    A little from door #3 will show up eventually (several months out). I'm not sure how much door #3 will be real money loan effect (I have no knowledge to judge with), and how much pure psychological. When the Fed says "it's safe enough to stop our recession measures" people will believe it & react to it... (until/unless when jobs don't start appearing.)

     

    I'd think high-yield when possible but high growth would be good too. And avoiding traditional yield sectors - since they'll go down when rates go up???

     

    Reading through SA & other site's comments, I can't believe how many are still saying QE forever. There's been a lot of language that QE has reached it's effectiveness and is going to turn negative (even back in May BB said it between things), and that it's time to try other techniques.
    20 Nov 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sometimes option #4 may show up when no one expects it. Have no clue what it might be but it is out there..O CARE?

     

    I still am leaning towards option #1.. O CARE will have a massive psychological AND financial influence on the markets. It hits home immediately for over 5 to 15 million families.

     

    For those not effected you have no idea what this will cause, absolutely no clue of the families budget and how it will be modified.

     

    Time will tell....QE forever? Well did you think it would be going on for 5 years now? No end date yet either I might add... Maybe not forever but most do think it basically is useless for infrastructure and jobs

     

    TACK might be right as well as FEAR. Honestly I hope so...
    20 Nov 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This just in....Option #4 ?

     

    President Obama's health-insurance fix not such a fix

     

    President Barack Obama might have said that consumers will be allowed to keep canceled health-insurance policies for one more year, but at least five states - including New York and Washington - won't let such plans be reinstated, as they believe it would harm their exchanges.

     

    Many carriers are also not allowing their customers to extend their old policies, due to time constraints and other obstacles. And those firms that may reverse the cancellations have said that premiums could rise.

     

    Of the major players, Cigna (CI) could reinstate policies, while WellPoint (WLP) is analyzing the situation.

     

    Well there goes that idea !!!
    21 Nov 2013, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Premiums WILL rise, regardless. Period.
    21 Nov 2013, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT AND OAG..

     

    You are gonna love this article on OCARE !!

     

    http://huff.to/1c1hSAP
    23 Nov 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    The end justifies the means. BHO is on a mission to destroy the current private health care system and replace it with a one payer nationalized system.

     

    If you read these articles or see stories like these on the news and understand the motive assigned to BHO, none of these news items will surprise a person. It all ends up making sense.

     

    The sheeple that have trouble understanding news items like these believe that BHO is trying to improve the current healthcare system on behalf of the people of the US. The supporters have no problems with the tactics used by the administration because they feel it is all for the good for the majority of all of the people. The sheeple that believe BHO is trying to improve our healthcare, but oppose the strategy in play, simply think that BHO is incompetent. I maintain that BHO is a fairly intelligent person at minimum.
    25 Nov 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    80-million employer health care plans expected to be cancelled in late 2014. That should really cause a rumble next year. Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute, believes that these cancellation notices should start going out in late summer or fall of 2014, and most before the November election. This amount of cancellations represents a little over half of all current employer plans. Again, the administration knew all of this back in 2010.

     

    http://fxn.ws/1iPsV33
    26 Nov 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Nice. I can't wait to pay more so I can get less. At least people who pay nothing will still pay nothing and get something better than what they had.

     

    Starting 1/1/2014, everything we have left over after paying bills, and buying food (cheap, bare-bones sustenance), we will send directly to BHO, in the form of a certified bank check, via registered mail.

     

    He knows better than myself where that money should go.
    26 Nov 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    You won't see the BIG effect until 2015, since the employer mandate was given a 1 year extension. Then next Nov-Dec when people see that their company is no longer providing health insurance, and the 1 year extension for cancelled policies will expire. This time next year you will hear even more against OC from all those in the middle class who won't qualify for subsidies and can't afford the new premiums.

     

    As to Tack's post above. QE has been a total failure except for keeping interest rates low so that the USG can't continue to spend more money than it has for the last 5 years. Every 1% rise in interest rates will cost USG $500B in more interest payments on the 16.7T debt. Once interest rates get back to the "normal" 5-6% the debt will be more than USG can handle. Which means programs will have to be cut/scaled back and taxes will rise OR the USG will default on the debt. Either way, things will become miserable for all those who do not currently have retirement funds set aside, outside SS. Those born after 1970 will really be in a pickle since the measures needed to shore up entitlements (OC included) will make it so they can't save even if they wanted to because of taxes. Everything will become a decision balanced against default When it gets tot the point where Medicare (the first to run out of money) goes bankrupt or USG defaults. What do you think the decision will be?

     

    There has been a bubble growing from the FED's actions. It has been in USG debt. And, reducing the "deficit" has not helped anything. USG has still had to borrow money every year since 1996. And the national debt continues to grow. And, it will till it can't...:oP
    21 Nov 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Exciting times we live in... Will the military open fire when the insurrection begins?
    21 Nov 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Notrub
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    I have wondered that many times over the last 5 years. If history is any indicator the answer is yes.
    21 Nov 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOTRUB

     

    Quite a few states won't allow the extension. Then I read others will but the same policy could have an increased premium of up to 24 %

     

    Now to me this ain't the same policy..I wonder what the catch is ?
    21 Nov 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK,, so you guys think our own military will strike against their own people?
    21 Nov 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    I think some of them will...
    21 Nov 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well I guess since the DOW was up over 100 points today we can go to sleep not worrying about any taper nonsense..

     

    But JBT might want us to sleep with a loaded weapon under our beds. The British are coming !! Sorry, that happened already :)

     

    Serious question here. This disturbs me to be honest...WHY DID TWO TOWNS WHERE I LIVE GET A FED GRANT FOR THE POLICE DEPARTMENTS TO HAVE HUMVEE'S ??

     

    Why do we need them, and then of course once the public started to question the validity they went out of site.
    21 Nov 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    IMHO, another waste of taxpayer money ,, they have taken the homeland security act to an absurd level with how they recklessly spend our tax dollars for their "toys"
    21 Nov 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Since you seem to be determined to keep up this idea of military suppression of the populace, I'll leave you with something else to digest, besides your Thanksgiving turkey:

     

    There are over 300 million privately-owned firearms in the United States. How do you think the military might stack up against 300 million firearms in the hands of an outraged public, even if such were remotely being pondered.

     

    That little data point, however, is precisely why those who would like to dictate and impose their will on the American people are so resolute in their attempts to disarm the public. They realize that, presently -- and exactly as the Founding Fathers envisioned, when they created the Second Amendment -- there's no way that totalitarian government can be imposed by force.

     

    The people, foolish as they are, may vote in upon themselves, but it's not arriving in an armored car.
    21 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Lets see what the average citizen will do when confronted by 10 agents at his door. I think all his weapons would disappear..

     

    Are you suggesting we have a coordinated effort already underway to fight our military, and police?

     

    imo we lose hands down. I own guns and I don't see a day when I want a shoot out against any military. I agree with you 100% about the second amendment. I belong to the NRA. But while I am eating my Turkey and watching football I really see nothing that makes me feel safe as far as a group of gun owners..
    24 Nov 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I'll add a 2cents thought here...

     

    Hum, I don't know... a small band of inexperienced hungry Nazi targets managed to keep the entire Nazi military effort at bay for several days in the Warsaw ghetto, using just a few smuggled weapons. Long after the ban on their owning weapons (and food).

     

    Simply having weaponry among the population, is a balancing of power act. Even simply psychologically for any wanna-bes. The individuals in military also wouldn't be facing an easy gain in "power" but would have to face guns, and risk. That's not what happens elsewhere in those dictator takeovers. Loyalty can change with actual real risk to oneself. (Once in power, such as in Syria, then the loyalty is already in place.)

     

    I'm curious, did you always think this way, or did you come to in more in the years since the accident? (You know, life changing events, leads to changes in thoughts about life...)
    24 Nov 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thinking what way??
    24 Nov 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    The sense of military suppression & g'vt suppression is potential to worry about...
    24 Nov 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Since this POTUS took office...Plenty of signs showing what his real game plan is..

     

    JW has given us plenty to think about, I have added a few tidbits of what I have seen and researched.. Generals being relieved of their ranks due to how and what they think. I will leave it at that !

     

    I joined the NRA for a very strong reason. I like the 2nd amendment. We lose that then the 1st one is a goner as well.

     

    My car accident has nothing to do with this. Why should it?
    24 Nov 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    I'm not questioning whether it's real or not. We obviously tend to have different views on this. (And BTW, my dad's read several significant books in complete agreement with you on this Potus, and tends to your views. I'm in a wildly different camp. I think the current issues are caused by inexperience which leads to less competence, plus too much ego.)

     

    I was only asking timing of your views. You've answered. It's based on this Potus. I'd wondered if a high risk event had been a game changer, by opening your eyes to risk in the world. Your answer is no :). (It's the psychologist in me, had to ask.)
    24 Nov 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » " I'm in a wildly different camp. I think the current issues are caused by inexperience which leads to less competence, plus too much ego.)"

     

    Oh, were in the same camp on this. I just don't believe the POTUS had no clue insurance companies would not drop individuals..

     

    I think he is devious as well..
    24 Nov 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Funny, because one school district was allowed to let their Art students paint it...Like that would make it ok to have it..

     

    It caused an uproar from other towns once it hit the papers. I hear another town also has one but they will not name it..

     

    Bothersome to think why we really need it 100 miles from the Ocean.. In NY !!

     

    Only excuse ( reason) we were given was just in case we get another Sandy ...I live 100 miles inland...No Hurricanes here. Flooding we do get but to use Sandy as the reason was bogus..

     

    They have another reason for sure !
    21 Nov 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Mmmm... Urban pacification. Check out the movie "Blue Thunder" with Roy Scheider.... They were going to deploy attack helicopters in the cities in that one.
    21 Nov 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Here's a little more fuel for the speculation that the FED will seriously consider any tapering on QE.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ca0GHx

     

    The central bank of China has decided that it is “no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves”. During the third quarter of 2013, China’s foreign-exchange reserves were valued at approximately $3.66 trillion. And of course the biggest chunk of that was made up of U.S. dollars. For years, China has been accumulating dollars and working hard to keep the value of the dollar up and the value of the yuan down. One of the goals has been to make Chinese products less expensive in the international marketplace. But now China has announced that the time has come for it to stop stockpiling U.S. dollars. And if that does indeed turn out to be the case, than many U.S. analysts are suggesting that China could also soon stop buying any more U.S. debt. Needless to say, all of this would be very bad for the United States.

     

    Rather than a 2014-taper, perhaps an increase in QE? Should PBoC follow through and stop buying US Treasuries, it would seem much more likely with this and perhaps other factors that QE will see increase(s) during 2014?
    22 Nov 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    OAG:

     

    China has made these kinds of protestations about the Yuan and dollars too many times to count. Just add this one to the list. They're no more in position to jeopardize their export economy at this juncture than other occasions, probably, even less.
    22 Nov 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    OAG and Tack

     

    That short article brings to our attention that China already holds enough dollars and US Treasury bonds and there is no sane reason for them to accumulate more. China is steadily positioning and strengthening the yuan for reserve currency status.

     

    They are accumulating gold to back the yuan/renmimbi. It makes sense that they would use a lot of those dollars and US treasuries to accumulate more gold. Lighten up on dollars/get more gold.

     

    OAG: that article cited another article that presents this case even better: "How China Can Cause The Death Of The Dollar And The Entire U.S. Financial System"
    http://bit.ly/1aNyk6C

     

    Tack:
    “China has made these kinds of protestations about the Yuan and dollars too many times to count.”
    Yes, but it seems that China is ready to give up on keeping the yuan low against the dollar to stimulate exports to the US. Yes, they do want the trade, but they also know they may benefit more with a stronger yaun that would buy more of the worlds natural resources.

     

    This process has been going on the last couple years and we are desensitized to it because we think the dollar will always be the world's reserve currency.

     

    There will be a tipping point where it becomes obvious to all nations that the paradigm of the last 68 years no longer exists, and then the dollar's slide will accelerate.

     

    Note the number of bilateral trade agreements China has made with major trading partners that bypass the dollar. (see the article above).

     

    How about (CYB) as a way to be positioned on the yuan side, and watch the Aussie dollar- FXA and Canadian dollar - FXC when the dollar begins to slide?

     

    Anyone know how to buy the Singapore dollar?
    22 Nov 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    JW:

     

    I spent my career in international business, and I'm simply not worried, not even a little.

     

    Look at the nonsequiters in this argument:

     

    Supposedly, China has a thirst for gold and disdain for the dollar. If so, then explain the persistent weakness in gold prices and dollar strength.

     

    And, likewise, commodities are cheap, presently. There's no thirst for them either, apparently.

     

    Bi-lateral trade agreements occur all over the world and have for ages. When did the idea arise that everybody conducts bi-lateral trade for everything in dollars? Aside from oil, uranium and some other commodities, countries have often priced resources and products in local currencies and insisted on making purchases likewise. I spent the '70's to '90's buying and selling major capital products and services in myriad local currencies, all around the world.

     

    Lastly, China is a closed, murky society and economy, with a dictatorial, capricious leadership, and nobody is remotely close to throwing the U.S. and the dollar over the side. One might think that's rather obvious, when Treasury rates were recently at all-time record lows, and the entire world was, and still is, standing in line to buy them.

     

    This duck simply won't fly.
    22 Nov 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @ Tack

     

    "China is a closed, murky society and economy, with a dictatorial, capricious leadership, and nobody is remotely close to throwing the U.S. and the dollar over the side. "

     

    Well that sums it up, exceedingly well. Very helpful.
    22 Nov 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    Tack

     

    I'm not arguing, just discussing,

     

    The weakness in gold is explained by western dealer banks – most likely US (– not German as they are trying to get their gold back) who have been suppressing the price of gold to mask the effects of loose monetary policies – the monetization of the debt - as you are aware, $85 billion per month.

     

    This has not resulted in “traditional” CPI inflation as the money has not flowed to businesses and consumers; it has flowed to the Fed treasury dealer banks and then back to the Fed in the form of reserves. The banks however are free to use the money to invest in equities, driving up the market.

     

    The inflation comes not from consumer spending, but from direct government consumption of resources and government subsidies of preferred partner corporations such as defense contractors and drug companies. Consumers (those who are not government employed or subsidized) cannot contribute to inflation because they are out of the money loop. They are actually being bled.

     

    Prices still rise because because of the dislocation of resources due to government subsidized consumption. People feel poorer at the same time as they are not recipients of QE money, but have to pay more for gas, food, rent and insurance

     

    Dollar “strength” is when it goes up against the Euro or Yen. So what?

     

    Any indicators of real dollar weakness are suppressed. The dollar may only be allowed to be seen lower relative to other fiat currencies such as the Yen or Euro, on a temporary basis - they take turns going down against each other. It's a game to divert our attention.

     

    The Chinese benefit from lower gold and commodity prices as it allows them to accumulate gold at lower prices at their leisure, while we bankrupt ourselves. It plays into their hand. They are patient and will be using their dollars to accumulate hard assets.

     

    The Chinese leadership is authoritarian, but it is also calculating and focused, and non-divided with a long term plan. US leaders are ADHD Jr high kids compared to them. Haven't you seen the pictures of Obama bowing to the Chinese president and other leaders.
    http://yhoo.it/1eo7bsd

     

    The significant trade agreements are those that arrange for oil sales to occur without petrodollars -they cut the US dollar out of the transactions. When the major trading nations don't use dollars for their oil trade anymore the game is over for the dollar.

     

    I don't like the Chinese leaders either, but your description of them as “dictatorial, capricious leadership” comes pretty close to describing our leaders too.
    23 Nov 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    JW:

     

    It would be pointless to carry on an extended debate because you have invented scenarios in your own mind that don't exist in reality. Just a few examples:

     

    You maintain that gold prices have plummeted because they are "suppressed." This is a typical conspiratorial assertion when people don't like the data they observe, but has no foundation. Prices are down simply because their is insufficient demand versus supply, and if it were true that countries or institutions were trying to drive down the price, they could only do it by flooding the market with excess supply. Do you see the U.S. or others flooding the market with gold in some scheme?

     

    Then, you assert that dollar weakness is "suppressed" (there's that word, again). You'll have to explain how that's accomplished, as more dollars are created, yet it rises in value against both other currencies and gold.

     

    And, you assert that banks are bidding up equities with excess reserves. In fact, this is an impossibility, as bank reserves cannot be directly invested in equities, or they wouldn't be reserves, and the reserves are sitting in huge excess on deposit at the Fed. Equities are up because of two inter-related reasons: 1) low interest rates, which imply a low discount rate to corporate cash flows, and 2) because corporations are turning in excellent performance, both revenues and profits at all-time highs.

     

    You appear to have a strong bias in your opinion that isn't supported by the data, and that kind of dissonance always leads to bad investment decisions. A political debate can be carried on elsewhere.
    23 Nov 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    I won't continue on with the debate, but I will clarify one point. Dealer banks can invest in equities, the proceeds from Fed purchases of Treasuries or mortgage securities they receive from the Fed, and deposit any balance they have remaining, with the Fed as reserves. I believe this is correct and it is what I meant.

     

    I am content to keep my perceptions to myself. I believe there will be long term consequences - though maybe not immediate or short term consequences. This is a process that is hanging us with unprecedented debt. For me these concerns have investment implications.
    23 Nov 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    "You maintain that gold prices have plummeted because they are "suppressed." This is a typical conspiratorial assertion when people don't like the data they observe, but has no foundation. Prices are down simply because their is insufficient demand versus supply..."

     

    How do you time the Comex with buy orders to hit at the exact time the naked shorts hit the market??

     

    It is hard to ignore that the gold price has been dropping in a series of steep drops typically in the $20 range per drop, due to the series of large naked shorts that have been dropped into the market place at strategic times. This "management" of the gold price is evidently being overseen by the FED to protect the dollar during QE.

     

    http://bit.ly/I7k3rW

     

    There is no other logical reason for these large naked-shorts to hit the market.

     

    Tack, I respect your experience and credentials with the markets, thus your opinions in the PM markets too, but find it puzzling that you deny the events that are taking down the gold price in the paper markets. I would respect your position much more if you acknowledged these actions and simply stated that you are of the belief that the gold market is being "managed" to this or possibly lower levels, and that you are of the opinion that the banksters have both the desire and capability to keep gold prices down for x-amount of years/or whatever period of time you would forecast. That would lend more credibility to your overall position.
    23 Nov 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    The ever present "long term consequences" ,

     

    Some random thoughts on an investment approach ;

     

    Investors have to be of the mindset that the world is a risky place and the financial markets will reflect those risks every day. It is not until you begin to understand the nature of risk that you learn how great it can be to create opportunities. When most people consider investing risk, they focus on how much they can lose in a given situation - and understandably so. This is perfectly natural and healthy.
    But not every risk inevitably comes to pass. Many if not most of these risks fade away, making room for new ones. Since the beginning of time if you look around there has always been a reason to be in 100% cash. Yet we all know that is a senseless failed strategy.

     

    This is not to say that bad things don't occur - they do and will. But we often find that the fallout from those "bad things" is less than or very different than what we'd spent so much time panicking about.
    (eurozone issues, sequestration , debt ceiling , tax legislation, on & on , now Obamacare will lead us to destruction, oh of course the "fed" obsession that says it "has to end badly" - all are observations still being touted ) I suppose those that are " fed obsessed " know better and have more knowledge than the entire bevy of central bankers around the globe -- I find that thought very amusing .

     

    This process plays out over & over in the financial world Those who embrace the opportunity philosophy have profited. While the others are still struggling with the “next” debacle, have little time to pay attention to what is really taking place.

     

    The next crisis is coming. The seed has already been planted in some remote corner of the financial world,. It will grow as many trumpet its arrival. And just as always, the arrival of this new crisis will have opened up a massive opportunity for those who've kept their heads.

     

    Many have been kept on the sidelines by the hysterical headlines that are churned out daily , & they have missed the greatest 2 years in the history of the global stock market. Many are still worried , and abhor this equity market as they ponder the perceived "long term consequences" ... Perhaps they need to look at the the folks that sat in their 401 k's before 2008 , & did absolutely NOTHING. They have seen their portfolios not only recoup the entire "paper loss" but their balances are now higher than in 2007 because the market is up 170% from the low...Care to guess how much the proactive investor, practicing simple risk management is ahead in that same time period? And lets not forget the dividend compounding that added extra income to their totals in that time frame. All of that transpired in a period that saw the worst financial crisis in history play out ..

     

    I have maintained this entire year that we are in a secular bull market. We will have corrections for sure , some may be steep and scary, BUT they will represent opportunities. 
    A quote from another financial blog I follow is worth noting ....
    "Most of your favorite crash-fetishists have track records that you wouldn't' wish on your worst enemy. It is one thing to be aware of the potential for terrible things to happen, it is quite another to give up on life and opportunity altogether."
    23 Nov 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    Fear
    I will "like" your comment for a very articulate explanation of your investing strategy. I am sure that when there is reason for you to act on the "Fear" part of your SA name that you will recognize it and act accordingly and timely.

     

    But somehow the name "Greed" is not the one you are being called by. That you are being called by the "Fear" part of your name at the moment is ironic.

     

    To bad that we write these rather long comments and put a lot of thought and effort into them, and they are looked at once and then forgotten due to the vertical/linear layout of these blogs. Seems like people just go to the bottom to see what's new. I would vouch that your comment is worth coming back to.

     

    regards
    JW
    23 Nov 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    I agree with you that I believe we have a "core" group of some very intelligent posters. Most of the time we are courteous to each other and wish their was a way to make the comments stick around for a while.

     

    That is why I try to leave the chapters open for a long time. It may take longer to load but the content is worth it.!! I truly believe the lurkers are getting a nice education here.

     

    I know I am !!
    23 Nov 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    JW,

     

    I never thought of it that way , the "FEAR" part , but u are correct its ironic.. The moniker was chosen because i do attempt to use the fear and greed cycles in the market to my advantage . the old adage buy when others are fearful , sell when there is greed in the air..

     

    Best to you ..
    24 Nov 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Take a look at this !

     

    http://bit.ly/1er0yp5
    24 Nov 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    This is one of many signs that change is on the way. The US Dollar is not long for this world.
    25 Nov 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @JW

     

    "your description of them as “dictatorial, capricious leadership” comes pretty close to describing our leaders too. "

     

    Has any of your family lived under a dictatorship, or fascism or the like?

     

    It's effected immediate family of mine in a big way. I don't see the comparison. The US has it's issues, but a comparison to dictatorship or capricious strikes me as hyperbole.
    23 Nov 2013, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    Lomah

     

    I don't mean to say that our present gov't is equivalent to one such as Nazi Germany in 1940 or that of Stalin.

     

    Yes, I suppose I sound extreme. I am guilty of extrapolating some, but I am not too far off.

     

    I know we don't live under an overt Nazi or Stalinist regime but we do have a regime that will invade another country like Iraq resulting in around 1,000,000 deaths because we didn't like the leader. Same in Viet Nam. Kill hundreds of thousands of them, including women and children.

     

    My statement is not hyperbole just because we are not presently an overtly fascist state, as we are (apparently) on the way to becoming one. A state becomes dictatorial incrementally, by degree. Remember, that Albert Einsten didn't wait until Germany attacked Poland in 1939 to leave Germany. He left in 1933, when he began to see the first signs of what was coming - before it became full-blown.

     

    We have a government that kills people by bombs, drones, Black Ops, Swat Teams, CIA assassinations (50th aniversary of JFKs death); DHS trained local police have gone berserk and on shooting sprees. It is getting very close now to that state of affairs. Just wait until you see your police department driving an armored humvee down the street some day, or if you have to go through an airport terminal to fly somewhere and are stared at and scrutinized by the TSA,

     

    (hey- what are you doing up at 1:00 AM posting? Drink too coffee, and can't sleep?)

     

    Will Rogers in the 1930,s said, "I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts."

     

    But it is not something to joke about anymore. The govt is something to be legitimately worried about.

     

    Goodnight
    JW
    23 Nov 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @JW

     

    None of what you describe is in the ball park of the slow cooking stages of Germany on it's way to Nazism.

     

    You've over simplified all those examples, the motivations and influences, and left out the checks and balances in our system that keeps each one from a shift to dictatorship.

     

    By 1933 extremists were the majority in parliament. Nazi party was already getting written agreements to become the dictatorship gov't. Animosity at Jews was elevated & the 1890s Vichy French Dreyfuss affair had already sounded the alarm for Jews. To get a parallel example in the US, we'd need the KKK-type rhetoric parties to be the majority in Congress. It'd not be safe for African Americans, & one wouldn't have to be a genius to know that.

     

    I've traveled overseas a lot, and been stared at & pulled over by TSA. My police with a humvee wouldn't bother me. Better than some of the idiots I've seen driving one down the highway at 8 m/gal.
    23 Nov 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    We live in totally different times compared to the 1930's. I may have oversimplified but I didn't want to write a book on it. My point is that the loss of freedom is incremental and most people don't notice it or ignore it.

     

    There are no checks and balances anymore. The infrastructure of Executive Orders and other laws already allow for the enablement of a military police state. All that is needed is a major crisis and a presidential declaration.

     

    The House of Representatives is supposed to represent the"people," but they stood up and gave the Capital Police and Secret Service a standing ovation for chasing down and shooting to death an unarmed mother in the Capital who was dehumanized by the lap-dog press as "delusional" and "hearing voices," and distorted the reporting of the incident with "shots were fired" as if there was a shooter.

     

    Don't expect the government to protect your rights.
    23 Nov 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    "Just wait until you see your police department driving an armored humvee down the street some day"

     

    Some day? As i posted above we already have them NOW where I live. They tried to hide them but the local newspaper exposed it, asked why they were needed, and didn't like the answers..

     

    Nor do I !!!
    23 Nov 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    . "My police with a humvee wouldn't bother me."

     

    I have posted I have two towns that are around where I live and they DO have Humvee's... Once you see them in Police Dept.'s MAYBE you will change your mind.

     

    Personally since they are trying to hide them I get the willies.. WHY HIDE THEM?
    23 Nov 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @IT

     

    I'd seen your posting on that earlier. I stand by my statement that a Humvee in my police dept wouldn't bother me. (A major tank would.)

     

    I haven't seen it in the US, but in another country (democratic) and it didn't make me quake. It was curious to look at.

     

    Hidden is probably about having spent money on toys, but hidden is not a good thing.
    23 Nov 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    Ok, I understand your point. Now a serious question. Why did our government give them a Federal Grant to have it? What's the serious issue we are having for the police to get a freebie, then hide it??

     

    It doesn't sit well with me. The reasons were ridiculous at first before it just suddenly stopped getting ink in the paper.. It started to gain momentum of concerns then , poof , nothing .

     

    I have never seen one up close. But to me that's as good as a tank as far as I am concerned. If it was pointed at my front door I wouldn't be happy .

     

    Keep in mind it is Federal money. Meaning yours and mine !!
    23 Nov 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @IT

     

    Ah, there's a dealership not far from me that sells Humvees, ... as well as the little bitty car I used to drive. Upfront and personal, they look like an cross between a caterpillar snow groomer and an overgrown jeep. At least to me. They shout, "I want to show off my, um, vehicle."

     

    The federal grants on stimulus money made no sense. The country is dying for infrastructure updates / repairs, but it went for all sorts of oddball things (I personally know of). All I can say is I voted. And this wasn't what I voted for...

     

    If the HV stopped getting ink, can you do some contacting and get so ink flowing? Two calls to the paper in your size town, and they might think it's a hot topic again, lol.
    23 Nov 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    Not really interested in seeing those 2 hummers at my door before my morning coffee. You know how small towns work...lol
    24 Nov 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @IT

     

    Lol, well yay, there is that.
    24 Nov 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    JW has his eyes open and is a voice of reason here. I'll leave it at that for I do not wish to write a book within the thread either. Thanks, JW. And thanks for the invite, IT.

     

    Cheers all,
    biz
    24 Nov 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Biz
    Nice to know that there is someone else who can concur with what I am seeing and not be in denial. I may post on the "Conspiracy" blog a little later. Talk later.
    24 Nov 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    Now would you drop your morning coffee if this was at your front door?

     

    http://fxn.ws/IgsRfp

     

    It would me !!
    25 Nov 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Well, on the plus side, the Albany one is having the gun turret removed, so it's a big bullet protected truck. Humvees in Albany make good sense, in the winter long battle of helping civilians through the ice & muck.

     

    On the downside, there are small town forces that aren't well monitored outside themselves. This is too much power for them.

     

    Showing up at my front door? Wouldn't bother me. You should see the collection of motorized stuff my father's had over the years. Boys, toys, how's that saying go? If it came with a polite policeman and a logical reason, I'd be fine. If it "came to get me," I'd be a bit perturbed... considering I've got bested once in a while by 5 pound weights at the gym.

     

    I've been in demonstrations where opposition showed who supported Hamas (for real, in US). I wouldn't have minded the big city police having a few of these in their mist. Except for one point made in the article...if they tend to escalate things.
    25 Nov 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    "On the downside, there are small town forces that aren't well monitored outside themselves. This is too much power for them."

     

    The last words I want to hear is some rookie sitting inside saying "WHAT'S THIS BUTTON FOR ?"

     

    Also, once they remove a part can't they just reattach it ?
    25 Nov 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    The recipients don't remove the parts. That's done as part of the sale / donation. Features are disabled. Similarly when you buy an old police car, there's a routine stripping down of everything intriguing. They just can't scrape off all the "aura" of what's been there before...
    (Though we had one, it wasn't bad at all.)

     

    rookie sitting inside saying "WHAT'S THIS BUTTON FOR ?"
    :-)
    25 Nov 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @JW

     

    I'm also avoiding writing a book. This isn't remotely near dictatorship or ability to be one, & not like living in the many countries with one or at risk for one. So I'll say we don't see this similarly and leave it there.

     

    BTW part of Germany's ability to become Nazi Germany was cultural. There was a "follow orders" culture that doesn't exist the same way in the US..

     

    On the unarmed mother, the media was accurately reporting that she was "delusional" and "hearing voices." It was part of her post-partum psychosis.

     

    The hyperbole gets in the way of the message you want to give.
    23 Nov 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    I will never accept that she should have been killed, never.. It could have been handled much differently..

     

    Again, anther story that just died...No pun intended..
    23 Nov 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    1913 was a big year in terms of putting in the foundation to incrementally remove our freedoms and liberty. 2013 most certainly more resembles a dictatorship, and 1913 much more a constitutional government that the forefathers intended it to be.

     

    I did look up dictatorship in Wikipedia, and we sure seem of course to what is described on this site.
    23 Nov 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » While we are on the gold topic. Any opinions on this article.?

     

    http://bit.ly/19RjR5S

     

    I, for one, am getting tired of the "crying wolf" scenario. Not sure why they are doing it but they sure are doing it..

     

    Tapering isn't just around the corner....

     

    My 2 cents
    23 Nov 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    The author of that article has had the story on Gold and the equity markets wrong for a while now..

     

    His two articles in May calling the gold sell off as silly (Gold @ 1450) . Perhaps he thinks its funnier now with Gold @ 1240 .. In Feb he advocating purchase NUGT as the miners were oversold - February ! with NUGT @ 400!

     

    His market calls have been atrocious,, in April he warned everyone that the 'economy was tanking" and big trouble for bank stocks.
    June 4th - his headline "the S & P & dow are about to fall hard "..

     

    I have had the pleasure of debating him here on SA ..
    Why would anyone follow him now ??

     

    Can there be a bounce here, can the miners bounce also,, sure , but the LT trend is down ..

     

    Tapering , one can believe what they wish , but look at the price action ----Consider the metal's reaction to the mere hint of taper. Will it be any better when the fed actually reduces its asset purchases ? The scenario gold will find itself in in the coming year will be toxic Rates slowly rise , the economy continues to heal on its own,,

     

    As I have mentioned for a while now, Gold is in a secular bear market & will be the worst place to be in '14 ..

     

    Gold finds its final resting place then underperforms for a long time...
    23 Nov 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Dave Kranzler may have been wrong on his suggestions for investing in gold and the miners. I haven't followed his calls, nor would I attempt to defend them either. The FED has been hinting about tapering for 7-1/2 months now (some $630 billion+ of QE ago), and it sure hasn't happened.

     

    Fair to say that either we are worse off than 7-1/2 months ago, or the FED is raising the bar as to when they would theoretically start to taper.

     

    Dave does make a strong argument in his article against the idea that the FED will taper any time soon and the impact such a taper would have.
    23 Nov 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    You have been correct about gold so far so I can't argue with you being wrong. But I still think with the naked shorts mentioned by OAG something is amiss..
    23 Nov 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    OAG,

     

    if u go back and read the FED statements , they are doing exactly what THEY have said ..

     

    The "hinting" you refer to is the media and all of the other noise that is being generated that everyone seems compelled to listen to.

     

    I'd rather stick with what i believe are the facts.. Commentary from an earlier blog post of mine :

     

    The bottom line is that the Fed did what the Fed said the Fed would do. Unemployment is above the stated threshold and inflation is below - thus, no taper. Why is this so mystifying? Are we that untrusting of people's word that we can't take a single thing at face value anymore?

     

    Another point on Gold as we head into '14 .
    As risk aversion declines, the price of gold—the classic refuge from monetary and political risk—could decline as well. Gold is still trading at more than two times its average inflation-adjusted price over the past century.

     

    As far as Dave is concerned , I use a simple approach on how i arrive at my investment conclusions. Combine my thoughts and ideas with those that have had the markets "right" .. Avoid those that continue to have the story "wrong" ..
    23 Nov 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Fear,
    You are right that the FED has been doing what BB has stated that they would do so far. No surprises. But there is always a voice that chimes in from one of the presidents of the FED banks (and usually it is not from the same FED bank each time), that the FED may start their taper "next month". This tactic has had impact and the FED may stop these rumors or at least spread them out more to try to get enough people to bite on all of this. These repeated stories or leaks could be prevented or halted but they continue. Couldn't the 12 FED bank presidents simply respond to the media questions that the taper decision is up to the FED chairman, period? End of rumors.

     

    Gold will hold in a price range in 2014 and beyond that the banksters, 1) decide to hold it at, and 2) are able to manipulate the price range that they desire. As long as both of these conditions are met, I would expect gold to hold a range in the 1150 - 1350 area until one of these conditions can either no longer be accomplished, or until the banksters change their position on the gold price for some reason. Expect the 1500+ contract sales within seconds, on the Comex at strategic times/dates to continue for the foreseeable future.
    23 Nov 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Do you think silver will trade in a range as well ? If so what is your feeling the range might be.

     

    This is open to all who have an opinion.

     

    Mine, I see silver advancing to $25 bucks in 2014. My assumption is industry use. I just can't see it staying this low but I am sure I am wrong.. lol

     

    Thanks !
    23 Nov 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    I really have only been studying the pm markets for a fairly short period of time, but try to keep up with as much information both current and historically, as I can.

     

    My 1150-1350 range for gold in 2014 is based upon my opinion that the banksters have achieved the price range that they wanted. A lower price from this range would shut down a lot of gold miners. It sure seems that this was not the goal if you look at the price action in 2013, so I don't expect this price to be driven lower from this range.

     

    As for silver, I think a $21-$25 range for 2014 is reasonable. Silver has a recent track record of exceeding the market direction that gold takes over a period of time. It's price action seems to follow its pm value more than it industrial usage, although I would think that its industrial demand should drive its price more in the future. Commodities overall have been depressed in this market.

     

    Silver's industrial demand should eventually overwhelm these current low silver prices even if pm's are successfully held down for any extended period.
    23 Nov 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    OAG,
    Agree with your comments regarding how the other FED officials appear from time to time giving all of us mixed signals..

     

    In fact , I just saw one of them on CNBC the other day , not sure who it was, However, he was asked just that question. He responded that all of the fed officials while subject to the final decision of the group and the fed chair regarding policy, they all can voice their 'personal" opinions on what they believe . (guess they have a desire to get their 10 min of fame ) Keeping in mind then that they all go back , voice their opinions at the meeting and vote on the final outcome.. I believe most would wish the other officials were under a "gag" order .. But that wouldn't be in concert with 'freedom of speech"....

     

    Thanks for your thoughts on Silver & Gold..
    24 Nov 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    "they all can voice their 'personal" opinions on what they believe . (guess they have a desire to get their 10 min of fame )"

     

    I actually see this as being rather well scripted, though. If for an example, if Charles Evans, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, gave his personal opinions with regard to FED policy, to the media, and Bernanke was both opposed to the comments and also did not want these views shared with the media, the FED Chairman could act swiftly to silence Mr. Evans, or anyone of the FED presidents for issuing comments in contrast to the direction of the FED.

     

    I contrast that with a generic large publicly traded company having one or more of their top executives making "false" public statements with regard to the company, to the press. That individual would not last very long within the company, again, unless they were acting within the script to make such contrary comments on behalf of the company.
    25 Nov 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    With all due respect - IMHO that's all "noise ".. Go back and look at all of the "reasons" (please look at the articles- all written earlier this year) that were stated as to why gold "has" to go up . Somehow they haven't come to fruition. --It was "noise" then and IMHO its "noise" now ..
    23 Nov 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Not debating here - just furthering the conversation. It is my opinion that most of the so called "noise" is only noise because so far it has been miss timed. I agree with the premiss of gold & silver ruling the markets, politics, currencies et al, one day, the only question that can't be answered is when. And, that said, I feel it near impossible to follow any of the fundamental indicators we all once were able to follow - as now nothing resembles normal - except the normalcy bias that keeps everyone simply going through everyday life unaware of what could "go seriously wrong" with the slightest of catalysts.

     

    thanks, biz
    24 Nov 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    You may be right. Or maybe their is some truth when they say "you don't fight the fed..".

     

    I haven't been studying this long enough to honestly have an educated opinion yet.

     

    But I do feel things are manipulated. Have they been for decades? That is where I am not sure. But do I feel games are being played now??

     

    "if u go back and read the FED statements , they are doing exactly what THEY have said ..".

     

    I will agree that they continue to confuse investors by changing the wording and then have a FED say we might taper in December.. To me this smells . The markets didn't react as severe because they have heard this song before !
    23 Nov 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    IMO, Bernanke is the ONLY one that matters ,he stated the thresholds that he was looking at before he would "consider " reducing asset purchases .. He has stayed the course. Now all of the other clowns that come out from time to time to voice THEIR 'opinion' have muddled the situation and the media picks it up and runs with it as if it's FACT. So i do understand that one can see this as mixed signals.. But i go back to my view.. Bernanke and now Yellen is the only voice that i listen to when it comes to the Fed and their actions..

     

    Maybe i am simple, but when the fed chair sets guidelines and adheres to those guidelines , I don't change my approach to the market because of other 'noise" .

     

    Of course , my backdrop of beliefs suggests that the initial taper will have absolutely no effect on the economy, will the market react ,of course , but if its an overreaction to the downside as i expect ,, it will be a chance to buy equities ..
    23 Nov 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    I was under the impression it's a committee, so it's by vote. Hence talk about what's his name who wasn't nominated not being good at consensus building, & Yellen being good at it.

     

    So I've been listening to the Bernanke's words by considering them reflection of where the committee is going. I also listen to the meeting minutes.

     

    For certain, as you've said since June they've stated targets and stuck with them. In the last few weeks, I've thought I'd been hearing from Bernanke and the minutes, that they're emphasizing keeping rates low, to detach QE from ZIRP in investors minds, so (drum roll) they can get to ending QE sooner. Specifically when the improved strength is more consistently showing up in the numbers. They didn't give a specific timing.

     

    Did I hear that accurately? Or did I get noise mixed in along the way?
    23 Nov 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    LOMAh,
    I believe you got it right,, and I can add that as with any "official" , keeping as many 'specifics" out of the commentary , gives them more 'wiggle" room when making final decisions..
    24 Nov 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    IT, It has been manipulated in earlier, interesting times. For instance, in 1965 the US gov and LBJ manipulated silver by removing it from our coins. The difference then - unlike now - is that it was not done secretively. LBJ is on record saying (paraphrased) There is not enough silver to continue using it in our coinage... A very short time later he said (to the American people) Don't even think about hoarding the (now discontinued) silver coins. We have plenty of silver on hand enough to influence the price if we see folks hoarding these coins. Paraphrased of course... but this is how I know it. I'll welcome anyone who knows that story more precisely to correct me if I misrepresented history or if I left something out..
    24 Nov 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Isn't Yellen more dovish then BB?

     

    if that is true then I think tapering is way off into the future. If that is true then where does that leave us ?

     

    I think, from what little I know, is in worse shape..

     

    Plus as I have stated this OCARE fiasco is gonna hurt everyone, and quickly !!

     

    When you have your POTUS saying over and over that if you have insurance already you can keep your policy. All of a sudden he didn't know it was a lie?

     

    That is why I get confused about the effects on the markets in the future. Time will tell.

     

    Very interesting times for sure..
    23 Nov 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Interesting times for sure , tapering may commence when the fed's target mandates are hit ... after all, that is what the FED has said all along.. I believe Yellen will stick to that plan, We'll see..

     

    As far at the POTUS, the markets will be better off if he keeps his mouth shut .. We will all be better off if O 'care gets completely revised and perhaps dismantled ,, we can only wish ..
    23 Nov 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well NY insurance companies already said you cannot keep your old policy.. From what I read Blue cross/Blue shield said you can BUT at a 25% increase.

     

    I think were heading to a one pay system...
    23 Nov 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    That's what OAG has been saying the last month or so.
    23 Nov 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    Is the link correct ?

     

    Oh, BTW... I read a report that when I go for my stress test due to my injury I need to do it laying down and they inject me with god knows what.

     

    Well that "gods know what" has now been labeled by the FDA as something that CAN cause a heart attack or stroke. I guess I will now have to try to do it the old fashion way and deal with the pain..
    23 Nov 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    In remembrance of the 50 anniversary of John F Kennedy's assassination, I would like to post this photo of the swearing in of LBJ.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jwomsd

     

    http://bit.ly/1c1goXc
    23 Nov 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    My analogy on the JFK assassination is that one quarterback, JFK, was taken out (permanently), and replaced by another quarterback, LBJ. I don't think LBJ was the driving force of taking down Kennedy.

     

    To further my analogy, quarterbacks have quarterback coaches, offensive coordinators, head coaches, general managers, and team owners that all over-rule the quarterback. During the game, as you watch from the stands or on TV, many sheeple believe that the QB is running the show for their respective team.
    One parting thought. In 1960, JFK was marketable to win in a close election. LBJ would have lost that election in a landslide. He was groomed to become the president via JFK's running mate. The timing of JFK's takedown was also well timed as LBJ was able to run on the sympathy of JFK's assassination and the legacy that they built for JFK after his death. Another plan well executed.
    23 Nov 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW AND OAG

     

    I like these conversations here but can you guys copy your comments and put them in the conspiracy chapter as well? It could use a jumpstart and this is a great topic for discussion.

     

    THANKS !
    23 Nov 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    I just know that we will never know the whole truth... I also saw a report that now a Secret Service agent in the car behind accidently shot the POTUS.

     

    Yup, on the job for a few months but was the one selected for having control of an AR 15. He heard shots, pulled up the gun from the floor, but once the car jolted an accidental shot hit Kennedy.

     

    I guess they will try any reason....Pathetic..
    23 Nov 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well you guys down south enjoy your weather tomorrow.

     

    Mid 20's as the high in NY so I guess I just curl up and watch some football:)

     

    Anyone else getting hit with this cold snap?
    23 Nov 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    TN is. We're supposed to get down to 16 tonight. Possibility of snow on Monday. :(
    23 Nov 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is 28 degrees now and this is the warmest it will be all day tomorrow.. Not looking forward to this cold just yet !

     

    Tough to dig up my gold and silver :)
    23 Nov 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So the POTUS thinks this Iran deal is great. But what about other countries?

     

    http://huff.to/1eqZiT9

     

    Humm....
    24 Nov 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    yes... ask the Saudis and Israel what they think. I did find Obamya's remarks interesting last night when he said - if after six months Iran does not comply we will re-implement the sanctions. Yeah right. And your health insurance policies that have been cancelled can now be reinstated for awhile.
    24 Nov 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    @ IT

     

    Israel denounced the deal, "Netanyahu says Iran nuclear deal is 'historic mistake':
    http://bit.ly/1jy8Bko

     

    It eases sanctions that took years to put in place, in exchange for letting Iran head toward enrichment, in exchange for some superficial agreement to inspection. Israel still calls for a diplomatic solution, but one not similar to the 1930's agreement that fed Czechoslovakia to Germany & let the world war begin.

     

    More sources:
    http://bit.ly/1jy8yVS

     

    It still has to be voted on by Congress, who is more skeptical.

     

    -----

     

    Last week the Iranian Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, called Jews "subhuman." (A popular Nazi phrase).

     

    He likened them to dogs, which are unclean & the worst insult in Muslim culture.

     

    The US gv't spokes person for the deal on CNN said, "but he was speaking to his people back home with that elevated rhetoric, so it doesn't count."

     

    ------

     

    LOL.

     

    Looking for that, I came across this headline in that 2nd link above:

     

    "Arab Bank in Saudi Arabia is refusing to handle "terror money” after the Palestinian Authority tried to transfer a stipend to a recently released (terrorist) prisoner."

     

    Also one of the grandfather inventors of suicide bombings (who brags about his inventing) was hurt in that suicide bombing in Lebanon last week.

     

    (As a side note to explain, according to PEW's 2011 poll, the rate of support for suicide bombing has gone down dramatically in most Arab countries to under 30%, often even much less. The exception is the Palestinians both West Bank & Gaza. They're at around 78% support it. So that's reflected by that Saudi bank's refusal.)
    24 Nov 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Land:

     

    Foreign treaties must be ratified by Senate only, which is Obama's lap dog. Not a remote chance they'd reject it.
    24 Nov 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Correction:

     

    The Ayatollah called Israelis & Israel "rabid dog", not Jews.
    http://bit.ly/1fAlixW

     

    @ Tack

     

    Interesting. I didn't know & was taking it from the article. It's 2/3s approval by Senate, so dim hope? Well okay as you said, lap dog, sigh.
    Anyone who wants details on process: http://1.usa.gov/1fAlg9a
    24 Nov 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those who follow the BDC'S !!!

     

    Fifth Street -6.5% after slashing dividend

     

    Fifth Street Finance (FSC) tumbles 6.5% in the premarket after slipping a dividend cut into last night's earnings release. The monthly payout falls to $0.05 per share in December from $0.0958 previously. For the first five months of 2014, the dividend will be $0.0833 per share.

     

    The board cancelled the $50M repurchase plan and replaced it with $100M program.

     

    Net asset value per share falls to $9.85 on September 30 from $9.90 at the end of Q2. NII of $0.24 per share fell from $0.27 in Q2.
    CC at 10 ET
    27 Nov 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HERE IT COMES

     

    Reported on FBN'S this morning that if the FED slashes interest rates that the banks receive, in return the banks might actually CHARGE us for deposits we make..

     

    Oh, this will go over well if it ever happens
    27 Nov 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    So technically we aren't 'paying' to be savers but now the banks will start charging us if we save money...priceless 'no pun intended'. You know, I'm a fairly young guy (35) and I was raised by a mother who had to work 2 jobs and still manage to give my sister and I what we needed. My mom never used credit cards and always drilled it through our heads that credit cards were evil.
    "SAVE SAVE SAVE" is what she would always say.

     

    I am college educated and have a nice career with a decent salary as a test engineer in the automotive industry, and while I make a good wage I still take that with me, to save save save. I could have a house twice the cost of this one, a car twice as nice, but for what? To prove my junk is bigger? Who cares? I think people get wrapped up in wanting the latest tech, the best vehicles, the biggest houses, and then here we are as an economy.

     

    It truly is like the matrix. When you open your eyes and start to see all of the tricks that business/govt plays on the consumer to get them to spend, it's a full time job trying to save. It'll get very interesting if it actually costs money to make a deposit or have a savings account no matter what minimum balance is carried.

     

    I will love to see my mother's reaction on the day she finds out bank of america is going to start charging to make deposits. She'll be on the horn to the governor lol.
    27 Nov 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Former U.S. Treasury official, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, weighs in on this interview: http://bit.ly/1aYsOOG

     

    Interesting information from this article with regard to former Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers:

     

    "This vast con game remains unrecognized by Congress and the public. At the IMF Research Conference on November 8, 2013, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers presented a plan to expand the con game."

     

    "Summers says that it is not enough merely to give the banks interest free money. More should be done for the banks. Instead of being paid interest on their bank deposits, people should be penalized for keeping their money in banks instead of spending it."

     

    **skipping down 2-paragraphs in this article...

     

    "Summers notes that despite a zero real rate of interest, there is still substantial unemployment. In other words, not even a zero rate of interest can reduce saving to the level of investment, thus frustrating a full employment recovery. Summers concludes that the natural rate of interest has become negative and is stuck below zero."

     

    "How to fix this? The way to fix it, Summers says, is to charge people for saving money. To avoid the charges, people would spend the money, thus reducing savings to the level of investment and restoring full employment."

     

    It is later noted in this article that the savings rate is currently about 30% BELOW the long term average. Retired people are struggling with these historic low interest rates and are unable to earn money on their retirement savings. These people are being forced to burn up retirement savings to meet their basic needs.
    27 Nov 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    If this dire situation ever occurred go you see PM'S becoming the new way to save or will the mattress become the new bank for some?
    27 Nov 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Well, now there would be the catalyst to move pm's much higher. Larry Summers also commented on a solution for this from the article:

     

    "Summers has a fix for this: eliminate the freedom by imposing a cashless society where the only money is electronic. As electronic money cannot be hoarded except in bank deposits, penalties can be imposed that force unproductive savings into consumption."
    27 Nov 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    I saw this coming 10 years ago. As soon as everybody gets in on the electronic (and this will probably happen as baby boomers die out, because my mother and many her age don't trust the computer), they will no longer accept paper transactions, and then they'll start charging fees and there's not a damn thing you can do about it. It's no different than wells fargo charging me fees inside my 401k. I can either just keep paying their fee, or try to move my money out. But what would be required for me to transfer my 401k to another bank would be to quit my job or take the huge penalty of withdrawal and I'm not going to do either. They got ya and they know it.

     

    You didn't really think electronic transactions would remain free forever did ya? lol
    27 Nov 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    OAG,
    Since PM's pay no dividends or interest , i don't see how they would benefit .

     

    IMO none of this talk regarding the bank deposits will ever take place .

     

    Very happy that Mr Summers did not get the fed chair job..
    27 Nov 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Fear,
    I still recommend a portion of a portfolio invested in physical pm's. I do believe it is wealth preservation and insurance.

     

    As for the negative interest rates on savings or electronic money replacing cash, time will tell. It would be interesting to have a conversation with an informed investor from circa: 1912, that also followed government and politics. If we were to share with that person all of the "socialized" events that happened in the US over the past 100-years, I would think much of this would not be believed possible or remotely likely by an informed individual from 1912.

     

    I'm with you that Summers would not have been a good choice to head the FED.
    27 Nov 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Even me who likes to tease the metals bugs has some physical silver. :) Currently it makes up 4.56% of our overall savings.

     

    If banks started charging to hold cash, I would advise people to close their account and put the money in a stock like (XOM), (PG), (JNJ), etc. I wouldn't recommend storing the cash in physical metals, though.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FIRE

     

    Yup, my parents would look like deer in headlights if that ever happened..

     

    Some here would call it a hidden bail in !!

     

    BTW..Welcome
    27 Nov 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the welcome.

     

    I work with some wonderfully intelligent guys, and a couple of them get together with me and talk political stuff, which makes for a very entertaining discussion.

     

    One of them brought up this question: Why does it cost 50,000 dollars for a F-150 these days when nearly the same material goes into a ford focus?
    Think about that one for a minute. Why can't you buy a decent car for 30k or less these days? I can assure you that it's always the OEMs pressuring the suppliers to make cars cheaper. The technology is vastly improved, but the materials used are the cheapest and the labor to build the parts is the cheapest that can be sought.

     

    Why do guys buy trucks when you can go rent the home depot truck for 20 bucks for the first 75 minutes? I dunno. I know we all like what we like but man...40-50k for a good truck is stupid to me, especially for an item that depreciates extremely fast.

     

    Homes, another scam. People are so easily misled. Is a house really an investment? It's a luxury to own one, and yes it's nice to have your own house, but you never own the property, and the government can throw you out due to eminent domain anytime it wants. You lease the land, never own it. After all the maintenance that goes into a house, unless you flip a house in a short time I don't think you make anything on it. And maybe it shouldn't be viewed that way, but that's how it's sold to the public. "It's the American dream". mm hmm.

     

    Our discussions at work, at least once a day, usually try to analyze something in the news from the previous day, either something the news media decides to focus on, or what that particular focus is distracting the public from, etc.

     

    Ugh, ignorance is bliss. I wish I couldn't see some of the things that go on sometimes. I'd sleep better.
    27 Nov 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    On homes - ya' gotta live somewhere. Renting gets you absolutely nothing in the end either, except a place to live.

     

    I've rented, and I've owned. I prefer owning.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I agree with you. I know the argument about owning a home. But as I age I like having no mortgage payment..

     

    Now if only I could find some ammo !!
    27 Nov 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    That's the trick - have your house paid off before you're old.

     

    Our WalMart has been doing better with ammunition... And they carry AR-15's again.
    27 Nov 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My WalMart is still rationing their .22 shells.. I am in my mid 50's and live within my means, but paid off my mortgage a few years ago.

     

    Gotta tell you it does feel good.. Not a big house but with my daughter gone we have plenty of room..
    27 Nov 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Having enough to pay off our house (not actually paying it off, just reaching the point where we have enough to do so if needed) is our primary goal at the moment. We should reach that by the end of 2015, knock on wood.

     

    We get a higher %'age return on our investments than the interest rate our house carries. As long as that remains to be the case, we'll keep our mortgage, but sleep well knowing we can pay it off if we want/need to.

     

    You can never "pay off" a rental.

     

    On a monthly basis, our property tax comes to $84.66. Maintenance is an issue, but not as big of one as pro-rental people make it out to be. Especially if you can manage some of the minor stuff on your own.

     

    Eminent domain? Sure, it can happen. But it doesn't very often. And those affected are typically well-compensated.
    27 Nov 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting insight..

     

    Please bring some of those daily discussions here...
    27 Nov 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    If this is an acceptable place to bring those discussions, I will certainly do so. Very entertaining stuff for sure. It's the only way I can get through my weeks at work sometimes ;).
    27 Nov 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to hear some comments on the data that comes out from the government on jobs, housing, etc. Do you guys think the data is skewed? Do you think it's manipulated?

     

    I figure everything else in wall street is manipulated, why wouldn't the data that the govt departments put out be any different?

     

    If this type of data is manipulated for one purpose or another, how is it the best kept secret on the planet? Usually government is lousy at keeping secrets and it takes a whistleblower to be the party pooper.
    27 Nov 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Fire,

     

    One thing I read yesterday with regard to government data that is interesting, "In the US, since the beginning of the 1980s the Bureau of Labor Statistics has “adjusted” the methodology of its inflation model 24 times."

     

    That same article shows a graph of consumer inflation (from shadowstats.com) of CPI currently running around 1-2%. Using the 1980 method to measure CPI, we would be running at a rate of 8-9%.

     

    If the data does not come out how the gov't wants it to, you will see the model changed once again, for the 25th time. It is a combination of government sometimes keeping "secrets", and other times not enough sheeple even pay attention to what is happening before their eyes, or uncovering secrets, too.
    27 Nov 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    OAG,

     

    I just wrote this in another article , that is questioning other data points

     

    Investors would be better served if they watched the price action and observe what the markets have been telling them than to be "obsessed" with conspiracy theories, et al.

     

    Maybe someone can tell me how obsessing over the CPI numbers or any other data point , whether you believe are real or "contrived" has helped their investment performance over the past year or two or perhaps 5 .

     

    These folks can "complain " and "whine' til the end of time about these things , it simply wont add to your "bottom line"
    & those that pay attention to the price action and the market signals have added significantly to their portfolio balances -- its a simple fact ..

     

    My.02
    27 Nov 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Fear,
    Thanks for your comments. I will check out your article as well as I both enjoy and respect your points of view. I'm on SA to learn and you have contributed nicely to me and I'm sure many others as well.

     

    Probably one of the more useful reasons for the manipulated CPI data or models to measure this is to create a result that suits the FED to report. If that number trends in the wrong direction then they just adjust the model used to measure it to better suit them.

     

    As to how that relates to investment, that is certainly a loaded question but there would be various views from many as to what the FED is doing and how that might affect personal investment performance. I for one do think that the FED and their actions do factor in to the markets. There are many factors to consider beyond the FED, but I do find them to be relevant.

     

    I do think that S&P at 1800 is not a good entry point right now. It can and likely will go higher with the anticipated continuation of QE, and the potential of QE being increased. Its correction should fall well below 1800 IMO, and I would question a recovery to 1800 for an extended period after the correction.. Good time to park investments in a "safe" place right now, again, IMO.
    27 Nov 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    OAG:

     

    Even if the CPI were manipulated, it would not be to serve any interest of the Fed. Rather it would be to serve the interest of the Government, which has to pay inflation-adjusted rates on Social Security and TIPS, among others. And, it's the Government that prepares the data, not the Fed.

     

    Almost all of the issues presently faced by the economy are consequent of the policies of this Administration, but they must be thrilled to death that all the commentary is directed almost exclusively to the Fed.
    27 Nov 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    "tell me how obsessing over the CPI numbers or any other data point , whether you believe are real or "contrived" has helped their investment performance over the past year or two or perhaps 5" .

     

    Great point F&G, though you and I come from slightly different camps, I recognize your point as "spot on". Investors shouldn't obsess over any of these numbers - as well not weigh on every word muttered by the Fed.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    Tack, I believe without doubt the CPI is manipulated lower BUT you are absolutely correct that the lower CPI helps the gov pay less in inflation adjustments to social security recipients.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Tack,
    The FED is using manipulated inflation numbers in combination with unemployment numbers to justify QE. I would disagree with you that this data is not being managed for the FED.

     

    I also agree with you that the US Gov't is using this CPI data which is keeping Social Security and TIPS lower than it would be if the CPI had a more realistic model to more accurately report inflation. Using the 1980 model, CPI would be around 8-9% right now.

     

    As for the FED, some may see them as privately held, and that they have little or no influence over the US Government or other agencies of the government outside of the Federal Reserve. Further, if the US President, or Senate, is opposed to the FED Chairman, and the FED policy, they will simply remove this person, or anyone else at the FED that the US Gov't deems necessary.

     

    I believe that the FED has much more power than this and that ultimately they have a greater influence over CPI and other data that is coming from the US Government. IMO the US Government is the tail that many believe wags the (FED) dog.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    I tend to agree that it matters not what is reality, but only what the market says is true at the moment.

     

    I didn't think it was a good entry point at SP1500 but what do I know?

     

    I try to pay less attention to the overall index and focus more on trying to find a decent price on a good stock. There might end up being a correction but it doesn't necessarily mean every stock will fall.

     

    I also am trying to pick stocks that I'd actually prefer to fall so i can buy more for the long haul.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    What do you or anyone else think about this POTUS botch up!!

     

    http://huff.to/1erLUgW
    27 Nov 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    I just texted my mother about the possible deposit charges and here was her response verbatim.. "Oh boy come on stupid govt...no wonder people in debt. Don't fall for that crap, KEEP SAVING" lol. Gotta love mom.
    27 Nov 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    The opposition would claim that hoarding savings is contributing to the bad economy and it this needs to be stimulated so that sheeple spend all this pent up savings.

     

    The problem is that real savings is off about 30% from long term average, according to Dr. Paul Craig Roberts. The top 1% have done quite well making money in this FED induced bull market, but the 99% are losing jobs, income, and savings. Participation rates for employment are historically low, and there has been a surge to part-time employment replacing full-time. Add in OC costs/taxes over the next few years and you will see a further drop in M1 & savings from the 99% crowd and a reduction in economic activity along with it.

     

    I'm with Mom on this one all the way!
    27 Nov 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Well, in this type of economy, savings are bad. They don't want people to save money because that means people spend less. How dare people spend less?
    'sarcasm'.

     

    What has this country come to? Boy...and until a couple of years ago, I didn't know there was a time when a day's work and a day's pay were considered a wash, and nobody paid income tax. I NEVER KNEW THAT. When i found that out I was furious, because as I understand it, it was sold to the public as a temporary tax for the war. But since we've been at war with somebody since forever now, I guess it's still justified.

     

    I always wondered why grumpy old men complained about the government. Now I get it.

     

    As generations die out, the new generations will experience this kind of thing. The young kids today don't know a day with telephone booths. Just the other day we drove by some place that had a telephone booth and he says "what is that thing?" I said it's a telephone booth. He said "what's the point of that?" LOL

     

    He's 16. He doesn't know an age of no cell phones. And so it will come to pass as my generation dies out, and he gets older. He won't remember a day when you had to physically walk into the bank. Hell, he hasn't really known a day where you have to walk into any store, because if you wanted to you could just buy anything you need/want online and have it delivered.

     

    I need to stop, I'm getting aggravated ;).
    27 Nov 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FIRE

     

    OAG has some interesting comments on this above !!
    27 Nov 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Biz Bluetree
    , contributor
    Comments (307) | Send Message
     
    Nice dialogue you guys have going this morning. I'm compelled to add my 2 cents=

     

    *Welcome Firehawk.

     

    *Dr. Paul Craig Roberts has a lot of "on spot" things to say. I read him - or even better, listen to him every chance I get.

     

    *We're going to have to see significant bank reform. This monetary system is killing our society as we know it.

     

    *The fudged inflation rate already trumps the low interest rates on savings accounts. Money in the bank is already in trouble. The mattress makes more sense for savings because it puts your dough within your reach in case of bank holidays or ATM malfunction, but the dollar is still shrinking under the sheets.

     

    *My new article (about to be published today) talks about "transferring paper to metals as an alternative savings account outside the banking system" --IT, it is the article you helped inspire... about what to stack and where to get it.

     

    *Yes, all numbers are manipulated. All gov data is either dumbed down or pumped up to benefit a particular charade.
    27 Nov 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    yes, please provide a treasure map so I can go dig up your PM's !!!

     

    ***********just kidding.
    27 Nov 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BIZ

     

    Looking forward to the article...
    27 Nov 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (776) | Send Message
     
    Ditto.
    27 Nov 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Those of you that have studied what happens to economies as they slowly deteriorate, is it the same as what's going on in the USA? I'm talking about 0% savings rates, savers being turned into 'bad people', the continual devaluation of currency, etc?
    27 Nov 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    OMG who the *&^%$$ cares! I'd rather make $. What are your best investment ideas??
    27 Nov 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    What do I know about high finance, not much really. My best stocks this year are (MCK) up over 60 %, (SBUX) up over 30 %, (STZ) up
    30% & (KKD) up 33%. (PRU) is up over 40%. (LVS) up over 30%. Guess what, that's this year, all bought in 2013….KKD was bought in July 2013.

     

    If they fall 10% or more, that's a buying opportunity. Even at 5% down, worth it to buy in. Coffee, donuts, beer, gambling & a little insurance….who knew?

     

    (IBM) looks tempting. It got as low as $177, up today to $178 and change. (MCD) is another one that is looking cheap.

     

    Also like stocks that have dividends, and that have a history of 10 years or more of increasing the dividend. How about using (PTY) or some other ETF to park your cash, and get a dividend too. Personally, I like 10% or more in cash at all times. Right now, I'm sitting on at least 20% or more in cash. In the investing fund that we use for living expenses, even more cash. If you use Bank of America & Merrill Edge, you will not be charged for your accounts, if your balance of all accounts is high enough. They will also give you free trades, with a certain balance in all your accounts combined. If you have your money all over the place, well then you might have to pay for that. Earlier this year I consolidated all investments, retirement & savings accounts into one place, (BOA) & MerrillEdge. If you have joint accounts, your $100,000 per person/per account goes higher….to reflect that. Why keep so much cash? I just transfer $ from the investing account to the checking account to cover expenses.

     

    Real estate…the longer you own it the better. You can keep real estate in the family, so that you get the benefit of having bought it back in the 1960's, as my dad did.

     

    Depending on where you live, housing can be a real budget buster. So always live below your means, drive an old jalopy & buy blue ribbon stocks instead. My dad drove his GM Matador for over 20 years, replacing the tires & engine when necessary.

     

    You don't have to buy everything new. Shop the charity stores, thrift shops, used furniture stores & garage sales. Teens can start earning at 16, and they should! Let them pay for their gadgets, teach them how to save. Even better, get them started learning how to invest.

     

    If your kids think they don't need to work, and you buy everything they want….well then, expect to support them forever. Because they will be lazy & spoiled, depending on how you raise them.

     

    Ever here about the US Marshall's auto auctions? Or buying your Uncle's car when he upgrades? My grandpa got his son's car, then we got them when he would get the next one. Some of those old cars were terrific. I'd rather drive my 2002 vehicle forever than buy something new. Two or better yet three year old cars are better than buying brand new.

     

    Check out David Fish, Chuck Carnevale & the guys who comment on their articles on SA if you want to learn how to find great stocks at cheap prices (yes even in this crazy market).

     

    If you spent more time researching stocks here on SA & less time bellyaching about conspiracy crap, you would have made $ this past year. (AMBA) is another stock you haven't missed yet. Regarded Solutions writes excellent articles here on SA.

     

    Good luck, & enjoy your Thanksgiving! Help your wife or mom with whatever needs to be done. As a wife & mom, I appreciate it when my family helps out. Okay, enough scolding. Why not share your best stocks too?
    27 Nov 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    My wife and I always teamwork Thanksgiving eats. Best for our child to stay well away, as we're whirlwinds on the holidays. He is, however, unloading the dishwasher as I type this. ;)

     

    Neither one of us will relax tomorrow until we eat, have dishes done, kitchen clean, and leftovers put away.

     

    Then it's football and sleep. :)

     

    Happy Thanksgiving to all my SA friends (and "enemies", too, I guess)! :)

     

    And help out whether you're the husband, wife, kid, uninvited guest, unpleasant relative, guy that nobody knows that kinda creeps you out, or whatever the case may be. :)
    27 Nov 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Football starts at noon. Explain to me how you cook, eat, clean up, BEFORE football?

     

    EVERYBODY enjoy tomorrow !
    27 Nov 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Happy Thanksgiving to all,

     

    JBT thanks for working on the spreadsheet with me..

     

    There is plenty to be thankful for , :)

     

    Enjoy !
    27 Nov 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    The Lions-Packers game will be on when the turkey's cooking. Raiders-Cowboys for while we eat/clean up. Steelers-Ravens will provide the entertainment for relaxing and dozing off.
    27 Nov 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    I'm a lions fan, sorry to say. We eating at 1230 just as the game starts, the women clean up the kitchen after I do the cooking ;)
    27 Nov 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    If Rodgers plays tomorrow I am taking (rooting for) Green Bay, Cowboys, and Ravens!
    27 Nov 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    McCarthy said on Tuesday the chances of Rodgers playing were "slim to none". Today he said the chances of Rodgers playings are "closer to none". I wouldn't count on him being the guy.

     

    Hopefully they will stick with Flynn, and not try again with Toulzine (although he was better than Wallace).
    27 Nov 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Wow. The Pack is getting pummeled. Not good when the success of your team rests on one guy's shoulders.

     

    Next year, maybe. :)

     

    Happy Thanksgiving
    28 Nov 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Do the PACK know they are suppose to play defense. Not so sure Rodgers is going to make much of a difference.
    29 Nov 2013, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks

     

    Look at this link. I found it really interesting. Now for those who like to pick their own stocks do you think these 10 are good ones to own?

     

    http://bit.ly/1cwH2u1

     

    BSF...Little cranky today eh? I THOUGHT I WAS LISTENING TO MY WIFE AND HAD TO RUN TO THE BATHROOM..
    27 Nov 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    All 10 are "BUY, BUY, BUY!", as Mr. Cramer would say.
    27 Nov 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • tampat
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Hi IT,

     

    Thats a good article. A mix of some of those 10 companies as well as a few of the communications companies shown below them make for a good core.
    I would have added one more sector to the article, defense companies (war) such as LMT, RTN, ATK and some others as wars will always be around. Ignore the huffing and puffing about defense spending cuts, that industry will continue to thrive.
    27 Nov 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    IT
    Yes, very interesting chart. Notice that 7 of the 10 companies are mega-food companies; they control your food and beverage choices.

     

    In consumer foods, particularly breakfast cereal, Kelloggs is a big one. So is General Mills and Pepsico. Here is some advice for when you are at the grocery store. Always choose Post cereal over Kelloggs. Post doesn't use the high-fructose corn sweetner - it is much better. If you have to have Captain Crunch or Fruit Loops, that's you choice, but if you want something that is nutritious and not harmful go with the Post brand over the "Mega food" corps.

     

    On this10 corporation web page scroll down below the Ten mega corporations, and take a look at the "Mega media" corporations that control most everything you read and hear.

     

    And below the Mega media corporations be sure to check out the "Mega Banks" that control the consumer finances in the US
    28 Nov 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    The frugal amongst us would skip the Post and Kellogg's cereal and buy the Malt-O-Meal bagged cereal, instead. :) Twice the amount of cereal for half the price.

     

    Always tryin' to save a buck, ya' know? :)
    28 Nov 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    No problem with that. ;)
    28 Nov 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    I think you should take a gander over at BIZ'S latest article . Some posts are sure to blow your mind!

     

    If you need a link just let me know.. Some are in the clouds now quoting the Bible..
    29 Nov 2013, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    IT & Fire {quoting you from above}

     

    "if the FED slashes interest rates that the banks receive, in return the banks might actually CHARGE us for deposits we make.."

     

    That is outrageous. And remember that when you deposit funds in Wells Fargo, Chase, Citibank, BAC, you are an unsecured creditor.

     

    Why do people tolerate being penalized for saving in these banks while at the same time by saving in them they have positioned themselves to be fleeced in the eventual "bail-in?"

     

    Get your money out of them and put it in a brokerage cash account which is governed by the SEC laws rather than FDIC psuedo depositor protection.
    (or use a local credit union)

     

    Firehawk:

     

    I agree with your position on houses. The concept of home ownership is an illusion. Your equity is continually confiscated by ever-increasing property taxation. You don't really own the property. The state just lets you think you own it.

     

    I agree with JBT in principle that it is better to own than rent, but I would like to really "OWN" it. I don't feel that I own it if it can be confiscated away from me if you can't pay the almost 2% and continuously increasing property tax.
    27 Nov 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    JW,

     

    By that same token, you never own a rental either. The difference lies in the fact that after the house is "paid off", the ability to maintain ownership of it drops dramatically in price.

     

    When we rented, we could have stayed in the rental 'til the day we died, and the price would have done nothing but increase on a month-to-month basis.

     

    Plus, nobody but us has keys/access to our house. I like that. A lot.

     

    To each his own, though. We still "kind of" own our freedom to choose. ;)
    27 Nov 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1139) | Send Message
     
    JBT

     

    Property taxes are a tax on a person's existence.

     

    I'm just complaining about the way things are now. Property taxes for a house now in one year exceed the price that a house sold for 60 to 70 years ago.

     

    I remember all the years when I would have liked to have put $3000 into an IRA but I couldn't because I had to pay the property taxes with the money instead.

     

    I don't appreciate the system.
    27 Nov 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    JW,

     

    "I don't appreciate the system."

     

    That makes two of us.

     

    Have a good Thanksgiving
    27 Nov 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Firehawk734
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
     
    Happy thnanksgiving all.

     

    Regarding the home buying vs rental, I also bought, I'm just complaining about the system as well ;). I own a rental home right now and also my primary of course. I was in a position to buy a nearly brand new home for about 60% off in late 2010 and converted my other home to a rental. And I'm fortunate, as my renters are wonderful. Nothing like getting rent early every month!

     

    I estimate that I'll have enough money in my after tax brokerage to cover the remaining home balance in about 3-4 yrs.

     

    It's always an interesting discussion to hear what is better, to pay off the home or to continue trying to earn interest on your money. There's pros and cons to both, and obviously once you put the money into the house, you no longer have the cash on hand (without trying to get a loan), but there's GOTTA be something wonderful about not owing a house payment monthly.

     

    The other thing too is while it is, from a financial standpoint, probably better to have your 100k earning interest, it's at risk in the market. The way I look at paying off debt that is accruing interest is that it's basically a risk free interest (savings) paying debt off early, if that makes sense. If I save a boatload paying the house off 15 yrs early, I could view that savings as risk free interest acquired, could I not?

     

    GOBBLE GOBBLE
    28 Nov 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Fire:

     

    Your words remind me of my own experience versus that of some of my friends.

     

    I was able to retire early to a very comfortable lifestyle because I spent much or my working years paying down my home mortgage, as quickly as circumstances would allow, including various refinancings to reduce total net cost, where possible. Some of my friends questioned that strategy and did the opposite, always maxing out their mortgages, claiming it was "cheap debt."

     

    But, what everyone discovers one day is that that "cheap money" must either be serviced endlessly or repaid. Of course, doing either is difficult if income from employment is going to disappear in retirement or the "cheap money" wasn't prudently used only to build liquid investments at a faster rate than the cost of the money. For some of my friends, too often, that money found its way into home improvements, automobiles, vacations and other sundries, none of which built up a liquid pool of capital that in the future could be used to repay the original loan(s).

     

    Consequently, they found themselves trapped in the perpetual need to either produce income or to give up their home entirely. In a few cases, they had depleted home equity to such an extent that even giving up the home didn't free adequate capital to "downsize" and still have adequate resources on which to retire.

     

    The morale of the story is that while investment in one's own home may not be the highest-return or most glamorous investment, or so iit may seem, it is an investment in future living free from a required major cash outflow for housing expense, and paying those mortgage payments prevents capricious use of the funds for matters non-investment related.
    28 Nov 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TACK

     

    there is something to be said not having to pay that mortgage payment monthly and utilizing those funds for investment purposes..
    You hear some say that you lose the tax write off.

     

    That just doesn't make much sense when I put on paper for those people. Once the see the difference in what they really save they always seem to conclude that it is a smart move..

     

    I don't lose sleep over the current market value knowing I have no plans on selling.. Yet I have friends who are underwater and are sick to their stomach...
    29 Nov 2013, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!
    28 Nov 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » National Bank of Greece requests higher bid for real estate asset

     

    National Bank of Greece (NBG +4.6%) has asked the three bidders for its stake in the Astir Palace Vouliagmenis Hotel to improve their offer by the end of the week, reports Bloomberg.

     

    The bank is shedding assets to raise capital and earlier this week sold 66% of its Pangaia Property unit to Invel Real Estate in a deal valued at €653M.

     

    Invel is paying €161M in cash to the bank, plus contributing equity in the form of real estate and apparently taking out a loan from NBG for the rest.

     

    Here I thought Greece was in good shape. Funny how they are asking for the bids to go higher.. What if they don't ?
    29 Nov 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    One gets to ask for higher bids when one is willing to tolerate a "no," not when one is desperate. Lots of money to be made in Greece and other locales still far down the food chain.
    29 Nov 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10356) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MOVING ON TO ANOTHER CHAPTER..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 Nov 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
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