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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Author’s reply » REPEAT QUESTION..


    For those who follow this sector..




    "MREITs digest Anworth's 33% dividend cut


    The mortgage REIT sector (REM -0.6%) is lower on a bright green day for the rest of the market, with Anworth Mortgage's (ANH -1.2%) 33% dividend cut Friday night offering another excuse to Sell. Anworth is an agency mortgage player, investing mostly in adjustable mortgages. Anworth's new forward yield of 7.5% is so far out of line with the double digits of the rest of the industry, it suggests even more declines are in store for the stock, or big dividend cuts lie ahead for competitors. At $4.19, Anworth is selling for a near-30% discount to September 30 book value.


    Down the most today is American Capital Mortgage (AGNC -2.7%), and its non-agency cousin, American Capital Agency (MTGE -1.7%) is off sharply as well.


    Others: Annaly (NLY -1.3%), Armour (ARR -1.2%), Western Asset (WMC -1.8%), Apollo (AMTG -1.4%), Ellington (EFC -0.4%), (EARN +0.2%)


    Related ETFs: MORT, MORL"
    16 Dec 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • IT


    These bottomed Dec 6. You are good at calling a bottom with your painful observance of the performance of these mReits (like you did with gold on Dec 3). As you can see from my portfolio, I have several of these so I felt the pain. Today I can see the lows in the rear-view mirror, I think.


    I would not own ARR ever, but some of the others are okay. Dividends coming in January. Maybe paper gains too.


    I would even buy (CIM) here - not an mReit. Notice it did not go down like the others. I bought (O) last week. A speculator would step up and buy (MORL) now.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The markets are skiddish because the FOMC are meeting today?


    Like tapering will be announced in December.. Give me a break!
    17 Dec 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    just consolidating after yesterdays gain,, However I'm in your camp on tapering this week.. I have made comments that we wouldn't see a taper in '13 and so I wont abandon ship now.. We'll see (remember we are not at the fed's targets) . I added commentary here on my blog to that effect..
    and that commentary includes stocks I like for '14 ..


    Here is a comment I just made on another article regarding tapering, gold and where we may see money flow in the short term, (my crystal ball seemed very clear this morning -- LOL)


    "I have been bearish on Gold all year, However I think we might see a short term bounce here in the metal. Its oversold right now and fund managers are still dumping , but that should abate very soon.


    I can't see money going back into bonds .. eventually the money will find it's way into equities as the year progresses.. The secular bull continues in '14 .


    I'm not so sure we see a reduction of fed purchases this week (we'll see) but the markets may sell of a bit either way simply based on where the averages sit today .. and if there is no taper that could be the catalyst to trigger a short term bounce in Gold..


    But for the remainder of '14, I believe Gold can retest the lows and perhaps go even lower .. the environment that will be out there is not good for gold at all..


    my .02
    17 Dec 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am stealing this quote ..


    Quote of the day from Jim Grant on CNBC this morning----


    "The Fed can change how things look, it cannot change what things are."
    17 Dec 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    and given the recent economic news and reports , They ARE pretty good from where I am sitting..
    17 Dec 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    So far I really can't argue with you. I am sure things would have been much worse now. My only concern, and I will not know for a few years, was this the right move?


    Seems so now, I have changed my mind somewhat. But still skeptical
    17 Dec 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am waiting for my on line delivery today as well !! In 8 inches of fresh snow that was SUPPOSE to be basically a dusting !


    This is one profession where they still can't get it right. Kinda like our POTUS >>>Just sayin


    "UPS expects to deliver 29M packages today


    UPS (UPS -0.2%) forecasts it will deliver 29M packages today to set an all-time company record. The astonishing volume works out to 300 packages a second for the day.


    What to watch: Analysts note that the mix of express deliveries for UPS could be higher this year due to winter storms which cut into brick-and-mortar shopping and the shorter period between Thanksgiving and Christmas."
    17 Dec 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Is this a joke ??


    "DOJ reportedly set to file civil fraud charges against Citi, Merrill


    Reuters reports the DOJ is getting set to file civil fraud charges against Citigroup (C) and Merrill Lynch (BAC) over MBS sales made during the financial crisis. In addition, probes of RBS and Credit Suisse (CS) are said to be "progressing."


    The report comes a month after JPMorgan reached a $13B settlement with the DOJ and other agencies


    Previous: DOJ plans more MBS fraud cases in 2014"


    Mere showcasing as they just end of being slaps on the wrist !!
    17 Dec 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • sheesh so much fighting going on with the DOJ, SEC etc. etc. going after the "bad guys." However, some of these banks did do some questionable stuff. Although I own (JPM) & (BAC) ….. can't they just do the right thing once in awhile?? Making $ can get you into trouble with the Feds it seems. So how did Madoff get away with his scam for so long? Blaming (JPM) seems ridiculous to me, since the (SEC) was tipped off Many Times, investigated Madoff Two Times, and didn't find anything wrong. Really??? Really.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Big rally today.


    Party On! During the recent down days, I bought some great stocks.
    (MMM), (UTX), (XOM), (COST) adding to existing positions & some new ones. (NDLS) came down to a pretty cheap price. (IBM) is looking good too.


    If you are a long term investor, don't worry about the "noise" as F&G calls it. In the long run, we will do just fine. Even fabulous!


    My strategy is to start with small positions, then buy more over time. Choose the great companies, with low PE ratios at a good value (like (IBM) which is really a bargain right now). No way a company like (MMM) will go out of business. Same with (UTX), (LMT), (NOC), (COST), (IBM), (XOM) and so many more.


    If you like dividends (and who doesn't!) then take advantage of (PTY). Down recently, you will see the price go up over the next year as the taper anxiety wears off.


    If you are looking at mREITs, be a little careful. They may offer great value but some may go even lower. (OHI) & (O) both look good to me. Do your research & due diligence as always. I got into (DLR) and then got out as it continued to go lower….always keep an eye on your investments.


    Happy Holidays to Everyone! May you find some great buys.


    Santa Claus Rally is gonna happen!! Believe it.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BSF


    YOU called it !!
    18 Dec 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • thank you ; )
    18 Dec 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BSF


    Now stop yelling at me. I type here to get away from the wife doing it:)


    My (PSEC) certainly enjoyed the news. My wallet isn't real fat so I have to be picky..


    Still have no plans on selling my PM'S though...Not sold were completely out of the woods yet. If I am wrong then I am wrong...
    18 Dec 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BSF


    So what time does the big rally start today?:)


    Maybe you meant in silver and gold?? Silver is over $20 bucks!! Gold is fighting to keep above $1220 daily...


    Your brother, I am sure, has been pointing this out to you daily


    Bye Bye BITCOIN, $1000 TO 500 ???.. China is seeing to that after all the gold they bought!!


    Now buckle up as the FED is talking in a few minutes...hehe..I can't wait to hear nothing new..
    18 Dec 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Bitcoin is a joke, a sucker play, nothing more.


    For all the talk of a cost-free transactional system, the banks and credit-card companies could establish the same overnight, on a whim, if necessary.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gold seems to be heading up and the markets seem to be heading down. Did someone leak anything?


    @TACK....A sucker born everyday !! Bitcoin is what you called it
    18 Dec 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Now Ben is having a news conference at 2.30 ?? Hummm
    18 Dec 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • It's early , BUT it appears that what is taking place in the markets is exactly what many have been saying all along-- the market realizes that tapering isn't tightening.. and that The markets can maintain the upward trend base on the economic news.. so much for the naysayer argument to the contrary ..


    Gold price stabilizing after the announcement tells me it was already baked into the current price ..


    of course it all may change after they parse every word out of berankes mouth -- LOL
    18 Dec 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, so now you Pro's have to explain this volatility with just a 10 billion dollar cut ?


    Finally the FED might be moving out of the way, but 150 points up a minute after it was appx 70 points down..


    So is this really a taper? I thought some were expecting a sell off once a taper was announced ??


    I am confused for sure ...The VIX is down as well..
    18 Dec 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • The daily chart of the Dow looks like they just shocked a patient back into normal rhythm. :)


    Color me surprised - I did not think they would do it this month. At least it wasn't done on a Friday. We still have two days this week to see how the market reacts. So far so good, though.
    18 Dec 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Doe this have any investing meaning?


    "Exxon insider sales surge in December, nearly equaling all of 2012


    Exxon Mobil (XOM +2.4%) has hit all-time highs this week, and some of its executives are cashing in; in December alone, XOM execs have sold almost as many shares as in all of 2012, reaping $8.3M, according to a WSJ review.


    The biggest individual sale was by Mark Albers, a senior VP and a leading candidate to be XOM's next chief executive, who sold ~8% of his shares for ~$5M.


    It's usually not a surprise when company brass sells shares as a stock reaches new heights, but Albers' sale raises some eyebrows; for executives in the running for the top job, the conventional wisdom is that you don't want to sell shares."
    18 Dec 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe Albers doesn't want the promotion... :) (XOM) up ~3% today.
    18 Dec 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    immediate volatility is due to day traders and the algorithmic programs that are set off to react on "keys" , I.E the word taper, etc.. so most equate "taper" to "sell" ...


    Albeit small, it surely is a reduction of asset purchases - (taper) markets can & will go up regardless of a 'taper" . Many including myself have pounded the table on that theme that the market and the economy can & will survive on their own .. No one can claim victory just yet , but its the first step in showing to those that want to believe it's all fed related , may endure more pain with that thesis ..
    18 Dec 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • This is amusing. My favorite and (in my view) unloved fixed-income investment popped 5% this am, dropped back down to the starting price, and then jumped back up 7% on a volume of 18000 so far - the usual daily volume average is less than 1000.


    If I hadn't bought it at a huge a discount to par, I'd be inclined to sell it. Well, I might yet - just put in a limit order to sell as I can buy its sister preferred at a similar yield.
    18 Dec 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER


    What do your charts show for another good entry point to add to my (PSEC) position?


    Others can chime in as well...


    Thanks !
    20 Dec 2013, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • IT,


    I'm not really a TA guy. I use a moving average on big funds. Based off my own past experience of owning it and assuming the prospects for them haven't changed, I would buy under $11. The trick is to figure out what the NAV is and that I can't do on the usual websites I go to. If you can figure that out, I would just buy into them when the price goes to a discount to the NAV.


    Keep in mind I haven't been following them for a couple of months, so it may be prospects have improved and you may not be able to buy under $11 again. If the economy continues to improve, they should do well. If some more interest rate fears come up over the next few months, I bet you can pick them up cheaper.


    One of the reasons I sold them aside from having a nice profit is that I can't evaluate the NAV movement the way I can with a regular cef. Somebody else may be aware of a resource where you could do that for bdc's or reits.
    20 Dec 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A lurker wants to know why gold didn't sell off on this news. I have no answer for all of this. I am still learning..


    Can someone take this question?


    18 Dec 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • My guess is that this was already "priced in" . The recent drop and weakness we have seen was more than likely due to investors taking this into account and reducing their holdings.. Anyone owning gold should be a bit relieved that for the moment it is stable..


    Now if the recent weakness was a prelude to what happens when the fed does reduce , one has to ask themselves how will gold look when the taper continues and ends..


    That is one of my reasons for stating that the environment for gold is shaky in '14 ...
    18 Dec 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    Thanks, great point. I wonder if others have a different opinion..??
    18 Dec 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like it was waiting for today to sell off. Maybe yesterday's rise was a "join the stock euphoria party" bump...
    19 Dec 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • JBT,


    Yep, gold being down about $30 here suggests just that , my initial comment about the taper being "priced in" , was premature ,,
    maybe this push down is coming from the overnight crowd which is Europe , etc. , not a good sign ..
    19 Dec 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am not convinced yet that a $30 sell off is what everyone expected once the FED tapered.. I will be convinced if gold drops below $1100 though.. We have seen these small selloffs before.


    This surely was the overseas markets. Now we shall see if we get a bounce above $1200 next week..


    Still won't sell my little stash regardless:)


    I also expect the markets to give back some of their giddy rise from yesterday as well. The fundamentals didn't change that drastically.


    But what do I know!! Just my 2 cents.
    19 Dec 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • You will never be convinced...
    19 Dec 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » " I will be convinced if gold drops below $1100 though.."


    JBT.. Here is my quote from above.. Still won't sell though:)
    19 Dec 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • "This is just the start folks, better buy your physical metals like gold and silver before its too late. This fiat money is running out of time.


    Might want to prep as well while your at it..."
    "Anyone willing to sell me their gold for $1600 per ounce just pm me!!


    I might add i will take silver at $31 per ounce all day long... "


    Also IT quotes... Heh. ;)
    19 Dec 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT.


    You all of a sudden don't like me anymore:)


    People can change their investment portfolios anytime. But no one took me up on any of those offers..


    Talk to me in 3 years when you have to buy your own health insurance and other factors come into play. You have the laugh now.


    But I owned racehorses and it isn't where you are in the middle of the race, it is the finish line.


    Explain to me why you buy 2 ounces of silver every month then? That buys plenty of spam you know :)


    Guess you had nothing to do today but look up my old quotes huh??
    19 Dec 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • I like you - I just like giving you a hard time, too. ;) It was a great time back then, with everyone prepping, and burying their gold all over the backyard. :)


    "Explain to me why you buy 2 ounces of silver every month then?"


    Good props for when me and the wife play 'pirate'. Arrrr.
    19 Dec 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am not going to even touch that comment:)
    19 Dec 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hummm......Seems like that 6.5% UE number is no longer in consideration.. Why the change ?
    18 Dec 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Because it was a condition for raising rates, not for tapering asset purchases. They've even eased off the raising rates issue, too, saying the current rates may remain for a long time after unemployment reaches their 6.5% target.
    18 Dec 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Just heard an interesting comment. Not sure if it is true. But that a 5 billion cut in Treasuries really isn't a big enough one because the Treasury has been issuing LESS issues monthly. So % wise it is a wash..


    I have no clue if this is true or not!
    18 Dec 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    Not sure if this question is appropriate. So I fully understand if you decline to answer. I remember that a long time ago you had a customer who was sitting on appx. 250k of new cash .


    I believe you were waiting for a pullback to start investing for that person. Have you done so yet?


    You have stayed the course of saying that the markets would continue to rise, as of now you have been spot on...
    18 Dec 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    No Problem , since i have a few that are sitting in Cash


    Since we have had very small pullbacks since that time , I have dabbled in a few names that did correct and I stayed conservative . (T) (CSCO) , (CVX) , (JPM) ,(TGT) all dividend payers as I am looking for income with some growth. Only deployed about 1/3 of the total .. Now I will slowly be adding to some names i like for '14 ..
    but trying to be patient and wait for my price..
    18 Dec 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • How much does the market have to go up before you start to believe that it's fueled by:


    1) More people getting jobs.
    2) Economy improving.
    3) We still need to fix bridges, roads, etc. so expect this help the economy.
    4) People shopping, spending money….it all helps.
    5) That 10% or more market correction….fuhgettabo...
    6) How many times did I post on this blog in the past 6 months that I'm buying on the dips? Every time the market dipped.
    7) Don't listen to me. I'm just an average person, convinced that the market will continue to go up, because Things Are Getting Better. Not because I'm naturally blonde ; )
    8) Just because you don't believe the numbers, don't expect everyone else to believe you.
    9) Yeah the DOW was up 1.84%; S&P up 1.66% and the Nasdaq was up 1.15% today.
    10) Gold is not falling because it's price is being manipulated. Nope. It's falling because there are better places to make money!


    Merry Christmas!
    18 Dec 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BSF


    $900 billion dollars are still being bought annually though...Let's see when the next cut comes.


    10 year is 2.9% . not much of a change either..


    You know I have to keep the discussion going:)
    18 Dec 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • IT, only "liked" your comment because you always complain about nobody clicking on the "like" button. ; )


    I'm in a prrrettty gooood mood right now. Yep, prrretttyyy gooood.


    Looking forward to a very rewarding 2014 too!
    18 Dec 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BSF


    I am happy for you. I am sincere about that !


    You take the chance, invest quite a lot, so I applaud winners >>>


    Now go take the family out to a nice meal and celebrate..


    BTW. WE have a like button???
    18 Dec 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » HOWEVER....


    "Fed's dovish taper sends stocks flying, Dow and S&P score record closes


    The Fed wants it known that tapering is not tightening, so its commitment to keeping short-term rates low after its bond-buying program ends leaves investors giddy, sending the Dow skyrocketing nearly 300 points and the S&P up nearly 30.


    Fed policy remains ultra-easy, buying bonds at an annual $900B clip and keeping short-term rates near zero even as the jobless rate moves lower - all pluses for risk assets.


    "This is about as accommodative of a tapering statement as we were going to get," says the deputy chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank, "but it is confidence-inspiring... [it's] a strong signal to the market."


    Financials and health care were leading stock sectors, but tech was a relative laggard as Apple fell 0.8% in the wake of Jabil Circuit's disappointing quarter.


    The dollar rose more than 1% vs. the yen but was more volatile against other currencies; Treasurys finished with modest losses, with the 10-year yield ending at 2.838%, pulling back after initially climbing to 2.922% on the Fed news.


    Gold gyrated after the Fed announcement before settling at $1,235, up 0.4%; Nymex crude rose 0.6% to $97.80 for its highest close in a week."


    So it seems that you can just throw a dart again !!!
    18 Dec 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • That was frustrating.


    I expected a taper of $10B today. Because they said so in media covered presentations before the pre-meeting media-quiet period.


    BUT I guessed a short term dip, so I waited to buy. Unfortunately had a hard to get doctor's appt at 2pm. On way into parking lot heard the taper news & markets were down. By time I got out, I'd missed the rally! Had I been babysitting the market at home, I'd have bought in. I would have set buy stops, but was concerned about another quick spike up followed by a decided decline.


    Oh well, think this was an overbuy bounce and will come down a little in next few days? I'm jumping in more, in the next week no matter.


    It's harder now though - a stock picking market. I have no experience with pricing fair values, to know when to buy in to each one. ... off to read some of BSF's author recommendations some more. And User7 and Tack's ideas. (I know even less about CEF & rate-sensitive issues.)


    Anyone else buying in more now... or keeping that cash on hand for the correction that just isn't showing it's face?
    18 Dec 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Lomah


    my thoughts




    Good luck !
    18 Dec 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • The market was flat pretty much until the announcement, then it spiked down for like a minute, and then spiked immediately upwards. Woulda had to have been quick to catch that 'dip'.


    I make 5 purchases each month, like I have for a long time, and hope to continuing doing for a long time.


    I have very little desire to wait for a 'correction'. I want all of my money working for me immediately.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • JBT


    I was expecting a more fearful longer term dip -- weeks or months intermittent. Not split second algo computer reactions, lol.


    "I want all of my money working for me immediately."
    Good point.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • What effect will tapering have on foreign markets? I keep hearing emerging will be badly effected. But why would this matter to them?


    And will their drops make for good buys (I'd do index ETFs for foreign.)?


    @ Fear - thanks
    The goldilocks effect never occurred to me for today... It felt that way to me (thank goodness, and not too big), should have assumed it would to majority of other folks too.
    18 Dec 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am not saying I believe this.. However two analyst said that either they will not cut back the 10 billion next month or this will be the last one for quite some time..


    So let's see what happens...
    18 Dec 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT


    I posted this elsewhere. It's my thoughts on this taper...


    The fed said they were going to taper by a small amount - in the pre-meeting media presentations two weeks ago. (They really did.) They said they're going to keep tapering by 10B a meeting. Unless economic data (housing, bond sales) shows real erosion.


    They've said (both BB & Yellen & others) that QE is no longer having the desired effect and they want to taper as long as it won't cause a rate fear reaction & economy stays steady as is or better. They've stuck with their word. They will continue to. So tapering will continue at a slow steady rate, only adjusted if economic numbers show a problematic reaction. No QE forever. No "small taper but it's not for real and they'll stop next month."


    So moving on... if they taper 10B each meeting,
    > how will it effect earnings & revenues?
    > How much of good earnings are built on buybacks & how much on good economy?
    > Rates will creep up. (or will they -- have they oversunk)?
    > What sectors will that effect that haven't over-absorbed it?
    > Looks like a bull, but what's going to cause the dips -- anything big coming?
    18 Dec 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Lomah,


    If we have learned one thing from these recent events that have unfolded --
    my call has suggested not to be 'fed obsessed", so for me , its best to avoid the commentary of whether it "will be 10% next time" and "when the next time will come" .. I see it having zero effect on earnings , it's been my call that its not all fed induced.. so we'll see how it plays out ..


    Financials , financials, financials , I cant say it enough-- they will do well in the taper , slow rising interest rate environment.


    My mantra going into '14 will now be that the correction I and others have been looking for will "come out of the blue" , when no one expects it.. Trying to pinpoint the event that might trigger a pullback is difficult at best ..and can divert one's attention to what is really going on.. So, I keep a pile of cash ready to act when the time comes ..


    Good Luck
    19 Dec 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • @FG


    Yep, you've been been saying (and I think Tack has too) that QE isn't causing the earnings.


    On financials, you've been strong on (JPM)... but they've had tons of legal payouts. Doesn't put a dent in them? Also, what area of financials? Small banks, large banks, housing starts, market segments I haven't thought of? Aren't they up already for buying into right now?


    For pullback are you saying that if you look for an event and keep expecting around it -- and the market does it's moves down randomly -- it's easy to miss?
    19 Dec 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah,


    You hit on the key , sure (JPM) has had the kitchen sink thrown at it , and look at what the stock has done , it hasn' t cratered , its telling you that those events are now behind them and that their earnings growth looking forward will trump all of that bad news with the payouts..
    it pays a nice div to boot and I believe that div will be increased in '14


    ( is also cheap here but no Div. to play the sector its (


    I 'd rather individual names since i can sell calls against any position to get more income ..


    In regard to pullbacks , i'm saying i used a lot of energy to try and pinpoint a correction. a fault of mine is that i try to be too precise , and at times it doesn't work well in the markets, but it does keep me conservative with my entry points on stocks..
    19 Dec 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Seems like gold will be climbing back over $1200 pretty quickly. Any opinions why it isn't dropping like a rock?


    Many stated that once the taper started the drop would pick up steam. As of this early post it is dancing around that mark.


    Just looking for some thoughts why ?


    Thanks !
    20 Dec 2013, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • IT,
    It's all in the paper.
    Physical runs away faster than a stallion.
    Bloomberg who can't be exactly described as a gold bull knows what's happening:
    This gold price drop is rigging, nothing more: even Bloomberg acknowledges:


    That story that 11% taper should justify the gold price drop is just hilarious. It is a scapegoat for rigging. In the end the Fed is still QE-ing at a speed of $75bn/month, and as a result has $4.1 trillion assets (liabilities) on its balance sheet.
    Is the US economy so much better to justify the taper ?
    Wait until spring. We'll know by then.
    In the meantime I stay gold bullish. Damn pity though I haven't more cash to buy. But the Chinese do.
    What strikes me as odd is the perfect cooperation of the US and Chinese authorities: the US want gold down to protect the $-system and the Chinese want gold down to buy it cheap: brothers in crime.
    20 Dec 2013, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @FILIPO


    Fed holdings sail past $4T


    The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has passed $4T for the first time after rising $14.1B this week to $4.01T.


    The milestone comes as the central bank plans to scale back its bond-buying program to $75B a month from $85B. Prior to this third round of QE in September 2012, the central bank held $2.82T in assets. Its balance sheet has quadrupled since 2008.


    No one seems to have a problem with this? What am I missing??
    20 Dec 2013, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • One more interesting thing about gold is that JP Morgan is asking for delivery on its outstanding COMEX contracts in very large amounts - not its normal behaviour. Their COMEX warehouses have also been accumulating physical gold and not offering it for delivery. Very interesting and I think JPM feels there's a bottom
    20 Dec 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • IT ,


    with all due respect , gold is down 29% this year , i would say that is pretty much of a shellacking .. and 37% from the highs ..


    Nothing goes down forever..


    The ONLY positive i saw yesterday , it seemed to bounce after it touched the lows of last JUne - 1185 or so .. IF gold doesn't continue to bounce here and fails at 1180 or so .. there is no support until triple digits..


    I can see a bounce all the way to 1300 , (after tax selling) then if it fails there its back down to test the low again,,, Add the backdrop with the economy and it won't go anywhere ---IMO ..
    20 Dec 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear,
    You are right about the price drop.
    Figures don't lie, but have you also seen the figures that left Western vaults ?
    HSBC) to China.
    Comex had to let go 550 metric tonnes in one year (2013), also to China.
    Does that not ring a bell to you, rather than that TA-mumbo-jumbo based 1180...1300 ?
    20 Dec 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Filipo,
    Ding Ding , yes i hear the bell ----My TA mumbo -jumbo has called it right since Gold entered a bear market , and its all here for anyone to see,


    Believe what u wish about Western vaults , china , et al, as i have asked before-- Please tell me when all of this supposed "good Stuff" is going to show up in the price of Gold. Maybe gold @ 1000 ? 900,800 , yes these are scary numbers , but i said gold would be here (1200) & no one believed, as I was called "foolish" .... , It doesn't matter to me i don't own any,just stating what the price action tells me .. Oh but for those that do , its very painful .. I understand , that is why the arguments directed at me are very fierce .. as I now believe many have "outsized positions" not any of the 5 % -15% crap , u wish us to believe. . As far as I'M concerned --if one person here didn't buy gold at 1500 and observed my thoughts -I'm happy ..


    BTW i heard that nonsense with Gold @ 1500, but don't take my word for it , go back and look at the articles here on SA , it's there,Its all here but you and others are blinded by your "faith" in Gold.. Amazing how the truth hurts , many gold aficionados simply can't handle the truth ,, Nor can they see past their noses at the process in place ..


    Oh, here's another one for you , please tell me how anyone of u guys can tell the public its a "safe haven" . Didn't gold have a 14% drop in 2 days during April ? losing 9% in single day ? or did u forget that .. That's safe ?? HMMM --- Its like listening to snake oil salesman ..
    U see the gold folks are now trying to defend an indefensible position,, If u don't understand - try the "Alamo" as an analogy.. There are NO good arguments to own gold--- especially now ..
    & Being in denial is not a good thing .. If u can't handle the truth - Please move on
    If you can't comprehend what I just wrote - the translation - if u own gold u have been left for dead and the money u have tied up in it is dead also .. possibly for a very long time..
    To recap . I have called it right since gold entered a bear market .. so now ---- believe what u wish ... :)
    So in the spirit of the holidays -- happy investing to you !
    20 Dec 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Biz,
    Filipo - even Fear:


    As you were talking about gold above, I published and article - yesterday AM, looking at the possibility of a bottom in gold now at year end. It came out yesterday as Fed "taper" was announced and gold retested its June 28 low. It didn't look good at the time.


    One day later, it is holding. Here is the link


    "Gold Completing Bottom As Cyprus 'Decides' Not To Sell?"
    20 Dec 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW


    I thought gold would be at $1k per ounce by
    20 Dec 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    I saw your article and would agree with your tech analysis,,
    Looking at the chart, if GLD it does seem that a 'double bottom" pattern has formed. As u said of gold can now hold here and build a base , its bullish for the short term and could spark a rally . If it doesnt't then ??


    I don t know how much the cyprus stuff means -if anything,, since we have heard about the so called India ,china buying since gold was at 1500.. IMO it will be hard for gold to get traction with the economic backdrop.. maybe a geopolitical event as a spark , who knows , but as we have seen before they are short lived pops..


    I've said all along that gold will find its resting place - & maybe u have nailed it and its here , but in my view , wherever it setles it under performs for a while ..
    Best to you ...
    21 Dec 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear,
    The introduction of a paper-market in gold gives way to the possibility of driving the price down (temporarily) through shorting, but when it appears that alot if not all of our Western gold is disappearing to Asia for a cheap price, how will the deliveries be eventually made when all the gold is gone ?
    I admit that I exaggerate -never the Western physical gold will be completely sold out- but still, a Comex decline from 1250 metric tonnes to 780 metric tonnes in no time, makes one muse, doesn't it ?


    You say there are no good arguments to own gold. On the contrary there are lots of arguments to own gold.
    ZIRP, Europe, Chinese-Japanese conflict, JPM buying like hell, to name but a few.


    I don't consider the gold price to have declined as a good argument not to own gold. On the contrary, it induces and enables people to buy more.


    Is volatility of the price an argument ? If that would be so, then no one would buy Apple, Blackberry.......... Their daily volatility is way higher than 9% lately.
    21 Dec 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    I had missed you article, a pity cause it's excellent, especially the fundamental reasons.
    On TA I can't comment.
    There's one more fundamental reason you did not mention: ZIRP.
    ZIRP gives corporates a strong incentive to borrow cheap in a deflationary environment.
    Why do corporates do that ?
    They have no choice than to invest in M&A because the markets are satiated and growth is anaemic.
    What is the main consequence of M&A ? Restructuring.
    Restructuring induces more massive layoffs, unemployment.
    All negative feedback loops.
    When will these M&A's top ? I don't know but when they will, that will be the end of productivity growth and hence of DJIA and SP500 increase.
    Until then I foresee a steady growth of both DJIA and SP500. The inflection point is near though and hence the gold price can from that point only go higher.
    21 Dec 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • filipo


    Thanks for your comment, and for bringing up the Merger and acquisition point, with the negative consequences of layoffs. "Negative feedback loop". Good phrase. Also the borrowing at cheap rates may be used to upgrade to robotics or some process that displaces workers - another negative in terms of employment.


    Wonder who is going to be the customers for the output of this increased productivity?


    For those reasons, can we really expect to see the unemployment rate come down? What we hear about instead is expanding unemployment benefits and expanding Medicaid as more people are below poverty level cannot afford any kind of healthcare.
    21 Dec 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • F & G,


    Good thing you're a modest man because people don't care for braggers.


    Gold would be over $2,000/oz if it weren't for JPM. I think the miners are a buy at this point, but what do I know? According to you, it's squat.
    21 Dec 2013, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • "increased productivity"
    merely inventory buildup.


    "cannot afford any kind of healthcare"
    Obamacare is a frickin joke. Thankfully they screwed it up, so now I get to keep my same policy for at least another year. Unfortunately, we're stuck with him for another three.
    21 Dec 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    Thanks for YOUR comment.
    There's one more thought I should have added:
    The positive effect of ZIRP on M&A which is negative for MT-LT consumption has a silver lining: it increases the wealth effect through share price increases.
    However that wealth effect should not be overestimated because most of the produced wealth stays concentrated in the hands of the elite. Studies have indeed outlined that the trickling down of this wealth is dismal.


    There's more negative to say about ZIRP: it undermines the purchasing capacity of retirees who are unable to participate in the general stock market euphoria for different reasons and who are on the contrary dependent on bond yields and/or their pension.
    Pension funds who are mainly invested in these low yield generating bonds have less earnings, hence pay out less to the retirees, go bankrupt (Detroit) and/or charge higher premiums to compensate for the lower yield incomes.


    You have a good point with "Also the borrowing at cheap rates may be used to upgrade to robotics or some process that displaces workers "
    ST that should increase skilled laborforce, but drive out unskilled labor and MT that should indeed turn out to be a job killer. However, technology in the LT is always a winner.


    I fully agree with your last remark. Employment will indeed be a constant challenge. Eventually that might lead to currency devaluations or/and salary drops.
    22 Dec 2013, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Ninja,
    Just remember ,, it ain't bragging if u can do it ..


    I agree with you , The miners are probably a buy because the tax selling may soon end and they have been thrown away .. & if gold truly has put in a double bottom trading pattern , that will also be a plus..


    Good luck to you ..
    22 Dec 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • F&G:


    Double bottom? Are you just trying to be nice in the holiday season?


    Anyone who thinks so should take a look at the October, November and December charts for gold here: Then, somebody tell me they see an upward trading pattern.


    (A link to the charts directly cannot be posted because the site uses scripts.)
    22 Dec 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    U caught me -- LOL,


    I am always in that 'giving" spirit this time of year :)


    Certainly no upward pattern, however the recent decline did stop at the June low. a technical knee jerk reaction - perhaps.. so for the "moment", that is Santa's gift to the Gold folks.. If it breaks there then the Grinch will take it down to the lows I have mentioned before..
    23 Dec 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Hope I didn't sell too soon at $1300.00 an Oz. in December. I'm buying paper in January .paoer money AS IN CURRENCY. Roll those Gold profits ,BUY PAPER AND THEN SELL it for a profit ! Buy more Gold when it bottoms next month. I love it when a plan comes together.
    24 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Does this have any effect on any markets??


    Chinese shares suffer worst run for 19 years amid cash crunch


    Chinese stocks have closed down for the ninth consecutive session, the worst run since 1994, amid increasing fears of another cash crunch in the short-term money markets.


    The seven-day repurchase rate soared 100 bps to a six-month high of 7.6%, representing a jump of 328 bps this week.


    The spike came as borrowing remained difficult despite the People's Bank of China making an emergency cash injection in the financial system yesterday after being inactive for over two weeks. The PBOC didn't provide too many details, although the amount was reported to be 200B yuan ($32.9B).


    "Market participants have to be able to see it and know the quantity and tenor of liquidity assistance in order to be reassured," says HSBC's Pin Ru Tan. "If they do not, it is natural to remain cautious.


    The Shanghai composite fell 2% and the Hang Seng -0.2%.
    20 Dec 2013, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • I think next generation innovation is where we are all heading,i imagine a complete overhaul.
    20 Dec 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • hello al roman


    I might agree with that too, except by "next generation innovation" and "complete overhaul" are you talking about the same thing I am thinking about?
    21 Dec 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • In general the energy sector but not excluded to.
    23 Dec 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Well, these are indeed interesting times... And I agree with many of the comments above. FEAR, TACK, JBT, IT.... however


    This so called taper will prove ineffective to the ends the Fed is hoping for and of course, as I've written in previous articles, they will have to reverse course and end up realizing more stimulus is needed sometime in 2014. And it may no longer be called quantitative easing. The powers that be will likely come up with a new name for a "new" program that will in effect not be new at all... but just a fatter, more dovish stimulus program. (To untaper and up QE would be to admit defeat... I digress.)


    FEAR, I agree, this new Fed shift was already baked into the pie. And savvy, long term investors, like you say, should really pay no attention to the noise of the Fed. AND I do believe PMs can retest lows and go even lower...


    JBT, I'm surprised too. I never imagined the Fed would taper in December. I figured Ben would just hand-off to Janet...


    Now, I hope I'm wrong, because I don't want to see more weakness and instability in my America! But I think the stock market will soon feel great pain, mortgage and lending rates will rise, the make believe recovery will falter, and the dollar will in fact.... well,


    Warren Buffet said, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."


    TACK, Bitcoin is basically, (INMO) a joke in the sense that it is unsustainable over time. But right now a great number of people are desperate for a safe haven from fiat currency - hence its sudden popularity. Not everyone has the same rosy outlook as many of you above.


    I also think the Comex is toast (read - will be), GLD was just raided for physicals heading east again while we were focused on the FOMC announcement and ultimately, the PM manipulation game will come to an end, (the new exchange in Shanghai is doing no favors for those in the old boys club) and when the silver and gold genie is let out of the bottle the precious, monetary metals will leave Bitcoin in the dust so to speak - especially strong silver, which will out perform gold like a sprinter on steroids.


    I know I'm a little out on a limb here so I might as well go all the way... I think by year end 2014 into 2015 silver and gold will be retesting their highs of September 2011. After that, all things considered, the metals will soar to unimaginable new highs. You've all heard the projected numbers the "bugs" have been throwing around, I'll spare you all here by not repeating them.


    IT, you are correct to hold your stash. As for me, right now, I'm buying all the way down - yes they'll probably go even lower than they are right now - but then it's only up from there.


    Thanks for my little piece of real estate to rant.


    Best wishes for a joyous holiday season to all,


    PS - If I don't reply this afternoon it is because I am in the ER with strep throat. Can't see my Medicare doc until after Christmas. Yes, I'm old. And please don't get this old guy started on OCare. ...peace
    20 Dec 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • BB:


    "TACK, Bitcoin is basically, (INMO) a joke in the sense that it is unsustainable over time. But right now a great number of people are desperate for a safe haven from fiat currency - hence its sudden popularity. Not everyone has the same rosy outlook as many of you above. "


    Safe haven? Bitcoin dropped 50% in a few days! Even gold has been blasted, for completely logical reasons, of course, even while its adherents search for conspiracies and avoid any kind of sensible economic analysis.


    People, who react in fear and ignorance, and make investment decisions thereon, always wind up getting an important part of their anatomy (they usually sit on it) handed to them.
    20 Dec 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack:


    Your last paragraph...Priceless! Why, why, why don't people see this!
    23 Dec 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Right now, the best you can do is invest in housing, especially US and Chinese alike. But make sure the roofs won't come down or your brains might get bruised...
    Some apparently still walk around with this symptom from the former housing collapse.
    23 Dec 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Tack, I know Bitcoin is down, but my point is that it jumped up for the safe haven reason mentioned above.... I'm not pro or con with it. I was simply agreeing with your "it's a joke" thesis - yet you're, what? ...trying to start an argument over it?


    20 Dec 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • BB,
    Appreciate your commentary , My view for '14 is different from yours , Rather than write a novel , its here in my blog..


    I didn't touch upon the Pm's in my commentary there but ,, I haven't changed my stance, they will be under pressure from the environment we will be in during '14..


    Hope u r feeling better ..
    20 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • FEAR,


    Thank you. I read your blog, and though it's obvious we disagree on a number of points (certainly not all), I recognize your knowledge and conviction - and certainly your class in dealing with others who comment on this thread - yet I wonder why you don't write and publish articles on SA. I don't mean to get personal so please don't feel obligated to answer that. I just want you to know what I pondered as I read you.


    I hope you are right in your opinions as this would be best for our nation in both finance and faith.


    Best regards to you and yours. You are a gentleman.


    20 Dec 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BIZ


    I echo the same thoughts about FEAR writing articles. I was hoping that posting his link on this blog would push him to write :)


    Him and I have disagreed in the past, but he is always a gentlemen with his responses until provoked.. lol


    Plus as many do not know he handles our portfolio challenge entries for only $100 bucks a month:)
    20 Dec 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    LOL, thanks for the kind words -, i think ,, lol,,


    anyway , for now , i don't feel i have the time to write articles and then have to reply to all (in a proper way) that have left commentary.. Instead the blog allows me to put my thoughts on paper, and prompts me to do more research. which in turn may make me a better investor.. Plus i can go back and see where i was wrong or right in my analysis..


    My gift to all here is to forego the$100 month salary , instead most of it should be donated to the JBT foundation :)
    20 Dec 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Donate it all, except for enough to buy IT a download or CD (or on vinyl for his gramophone) of Bobby McFarren's "Don't Worry, Be Happy". ;)
    20 Dec 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • JBT


    U got it .. :)
    20 Dec 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    "Donate it all, except for enough to buy IT a download or CD (or on vinyl for his gramophone) of Bobby McFarren's "Don't Worry, Be Happy". ;)"


    a *GRAMOPHONE* huh, Wonder what they are worth today??


    I could not accept it all JBT, YOU have to get at least a NY YANKEES hat .. lol
    20 Dec 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Did GDP really go up ?


    Dont buy the hype, the government changed the way they calculated GDP starting with the 3rd quarter of this year.


    From an article by a fellow SA Author:


    GDP Calculations now include:


    -Research & Development Spending
    -Film Royalties
    -Real Estate Commissions, legal bills


    As well as "Previously, pension spending was included in GDP. After this adjustment however, we also look at the "promise" to pay out pensions. "

    21 Dec 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • The concern I heard was the inventory build up, could have pushed up the GDP and so show a slower GDP next quarter.


    It's still high enough in my opinion to be the start of a turn around, but if it comes in lower, that could unsettle the market's investors (even if it shouldn't).


    Still long overall. We're in the middle of a recovery, not at the beginning, not at a top, and not about to slide backwards into the abyss... even though it's definitely not great yet. Outside of a black swan geopolitical event that's a game changer... we're getting there. Maybe our politicians will even stop regulating everything into oblivion, when elections finally come?
    21 Dec 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • IT:


    Look where all the folks, who haven't bought the "hype" since 2009, are now.
    21 Dec 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK


    Just pointing out the calculation is different that's all...


    Some may not know this !
    21 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • "Maybe our politicians will even stop regulating everything into oblivion, when elections finally come? "


    Never gonna happen. Never ever ever ever.


    It's what they do.
    21 Dec 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • true, although in my field of work, civil engineering, the last few years have seen the strong excel almost in spite of them.


    But as we say at the office, could you imagine where we would be in this recovery if they would just get out of the way!
    23 Dec 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • @ IT I'm going ALL IN on PAPER for 2014 . I sold all my Gold that I had in inventory for $1300.00 an Oz. this December. . .Yep,I'm buying Notes ! Paper money for me . I had too much Gold and people were only paying about $50 an Oz. over spot ,which was still better than they could do on EBAY, so I let them take advantage of me.I am going to be Bullish on old paper money for a while. What's a coin dealer to do? :)
    23 Dec 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mmmm.... Signs of capitulation? Time to look at gold, maybe. ;)
    23 Dec 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Strange JB that the graph for gold and fed assets is symmetrical Mmmm...
    23 Dec 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • It looks inversely proportional to me.
    23 Dec 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • O.K !
    23 Dec 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @COINS


    Pinch me, I must be dreaming :)
    23 Dec 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I guess that was a trick question huh ?


    Some of us aren't that smart... lol
    23 Dec 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • I T this market is freaked out it's like hyper Savvy land.
    23 Dec 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @AL


    So in your opinion when does it end? Expect a major correction?
    23 Dec 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • When we all get on the same page about what's real,we are exhausting the planet and ourselves.Our greatest asset and investment really is each other,recognition of that is an end in it's self.


    As for a correction Fed & Authority will fight like H to make sure that does't happen but something will (ACA),think about that one with patriot laws still in effect.
    24 Dec 2013, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • End of the year summary on saving for retirement .Gold & Silver are 1st and foremost a store of value. Does anyone ever talk about the fiat aspect of 401k plans ? They are really IOU's as well ,and what's even worse that few people think about is that the TAXES due are yet to be added up. So the 401k plan that my wife has with about $225,000..oo can be taxed at a ridiculous rate by the time they figure how to pay for more government programs (Like the Obamascare Tax), with her savings. Just makes me want to run and sell all the precious metals I can to put it into a paper retirement that will be taxed at a very high rate before she reaches 60. Not really
    24 Dec 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • C:


    Let's bring this back to reality.


    When you buy gold, outside that hated 401k, you're using after-tax dollars that have been taxed right now. That means that you cannot compound all that pre-tax value for years and years and pay the taxes later, only as money is withdrawn as you need it.


    And, as history shows, over any extended period on wishes to select, that equities crush gold for total returns, even when on a similar tax basis. If one compares the performance of equities, compounded on a pre-tax basis for 20-30 years, versus gold measured on an after-tax basis, the results would be almost laughable comparisons.


    Gold is only a "store of value" if one compares it to paper money stored in a coffee can for 20-30 years. That's hardly a meaningful comparison.
    24 Dec 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • " Gold is only a "store of value" if one compares it to paper money stored in a coffee can for 20-30 years. That's hardly a meaningful comparison."
    It's a totally meaningless comparison IMO.
    I think you have it completely backwards on your coffee can comparison. And for the taxes ,unless you go with a Roth IRA you have no idea what your responsibility will be in 10 years for the government approved 401k /IRA etc. The Taxcode is as changeable as Obamacare .And guess who gets to make the rules of both organizations? The man that told us 38 times we could keep our plan. No thanks but thanks alot .
    On the metals side It's a great thing to have a 401K ,and it's even better to have a plan B . Merry Christmas.
    24 Dec 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Reflecting on Gold:


    I just read this instablog by Chris Demuth, Aug 15.


    Not a gold bug by any means. This is high level reflective thought, and a call to "primitive" skills" while questioning technological sophistication.


    The pictures alone tell the story.


    Must read / look at.
    24 Dec 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,


    As many times As i have read it , I notice there is never any comeback to your comments on Gold..


    "And, as history shows, over any extended period on wishes to select, that equities crush gold for total returns, even when on a similar tax basis. If one compares the performance of equities, compounded on a pre-tax basis for 20-30 years, versus gold measured on an after-tax basis, the results would be almost laughable comparisons."


    The other commentary that i never hear any reply from is my example to show that Gold offered absolutely nothing to an investor during the 2008- 2009 financial crisis .. So explain , exactly when is it supposed to help me ?? My question is always the same - So where is this supposed "safe haven" ??... the silence is deafening..


    Merry Christmas to all ...
    24 Dec 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • @ F&G
    "The other commentary that i never hear any reply from is my example to show that Gold offered absolutely nothing to an investor during the 2008- 2009 financial crisis .."


    Other than the fact that people who had Gold had ALL their money unlike the EXCLUSIVELY "stocksters " ,.who were lucky if they even had 1/2 OF THEIR RETIREMENTS LEFT AFTER THE PLUNDER OF 2008
    25 Dec 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Coins,,


    perhaps you haven't noticed sir , that the "stocksters " have gained it all back and then some , or haven't u noticed the S & P lately.. and that is by doing absolutely NOTHING. Now , those that were proactive, practiced risk mgmn't on the way down ( gold folks don't know what that is ) , then ventured back in as savvy "stocksters" do, well, well, well, ----- the wealth created is enormous....


    their retirements are more solid than ever before ....


    Ahhh but the naysayers still want to blame the fed for the so called bubble stock market ..they can't see the forest for the trees ,, they are people in denial of what is taking place ... , plain & simple .. Too focused on a debacle that may send there PM's into orbit.. but wait ....


    In Jan '08 gold was 900 /oz, in March 2009 gold was at 892.. The worst financial crisis in history and it stayed FLAT - protection from disaster ? a safe have that will rise in value during times of crisis.. ?Hardly .... Insurance hedge -- ? Think again...


    no, I suggest they are remarks from a snake oils salesman ..preying on emotion -----
    Gold is one thing--- an emotional trade.. period..


    So u want to tell me now that at the precise moment in the financial crisis , the smart PM folks put all of their assets in Gold and stayed there...? as the supposed safe haven ... so they had ALL of their money while the stocksters suffered... ??? BUT, wait a minute I thought the PM allocation was only supposed to be 10 % or so . The story the PM folks put out is one of hypocrisy .. Filled with a flawed strategy from the beginning....


    More facts :
    The run in Gold to 1900 shows how much it overshot Industrial commodities where it has tracked over time ... Industrial commodities have been relatively stable for several years now, and gold looks to be in the process of coming back down to a level that is more consistent with the current level of industrial commodity prices. Over the past century, the real price of gold in today's dollars has averaged just under $600/oz. Want to see a chart of that ? It's called reversion to the mean .....


    Santa has brought the "stocksters" some nice gifts.. and has left coal in place of the gold coins & bars.. Get used to it , it may be this way for quite some time.....
    25 Dec 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Wrote a nice rebuttal that went Poof. So I'll say this We will see . I hope Gold & Silver go down til February though. I hope F&G is actually right for once.
    25 Dec 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    Why February ?
    What's so special about it ?
    25 Dec 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • That's when the Coin show tours begin. That's when we SELL,SELL,SELL. Mostly because of the American Eagle program which ships in Jan. to us small dealers :) Here's where the BIG boys get it going
    25 Dec 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • @Fear


    "were proactive, practiced risk mgmn't on the way down "


    Can you run down a list of those? What I've learned so far are:
    1) Selling what's high & picking up down stocks (i.e. rebalancing)
    2) Selling what's high to cash when it's feeling toppy.
    3) Selling covered puts.


    On Gold - I think it's holding value during the market down turn makes it a nice non-correlated asset, so holding a 3-5% has value. It'd have to be in physical gold to have any bad-times value.


    @Coins seems to have a midas touch. If I could sell and buy with profits like that... I'd have much more than 5% in gold too.


    Though I'd probably go for silver since it had some solid industrial purposes too.
    25 Dec 2013, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Most ex Gold bugs are betting on silver.
    26 Dec 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    Got it. Trading coins must be interesting.
    Hope you do great at that business.
    I own a golden 1922 double eagle that I fancy.
    26 Dec 2013, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • I T Correction or no correction the pump and grind is eternal,rather do it with no correction.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Filipo
    Thanks The 1922 is a St. Gaudens and is one of my favorite coins. The same design ,by Augustus St. Gaudens , is on the Walking Liberty half which can be owned for about $10 in circulated condition.
    26 Dec 2013, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    Well, apparently we share the same taste.
    By all standards it is my favorite coin. Krugers are common compared to the excellence of the 1922 St. Gauden. Mine is in prime condition.
    Wish you all the best and a happy new year.
    26 Dec 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah


    The items u listed are only a step in risk management.. Your last point should read sell covered calls(not puts) .


    What is really necessary is to recognize the change in sentiment and a simple rule -- when a stock , commodity enters into a bear market (20% or so down from the highs) its a huge signal.. ...
    Here is a simple technical approach that i used in the last 2 downturns in the stock market that saved a lot of money ... And contrary to what many believe the signals as shown in the commentary allow u to get out of town with a good deal of your profits... One major diff . in an equity bear market u will still get paid the dividends while you "wait it out", contrary to the Pm's which pay u zero in the interim... That in essence allows more flexibility in the risk management part..



    Good Luck !
    26 Dec 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • F&G, you said it!!! Gold is not where I want to be. You can make money on speculation (like in NUGT & DUST)….but it can burn you too.


    I'll take buying great dividend stocks & holding them until the dividends get cut or frozen any time. After 20/30/40 years (or more), those dividends will be a lot of fun to spend in retirement.


    For what it's worth, my portfolios are doing way better today than they were in 2008….and I never sold a thing during the downturn. The $ that continued to go into the maket since then has done extremely well. Keep the faith, buy the dips & never stop doing your research.
    26 Dec 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Thank's FG


    I'll have to go back to all your blogging... much more for me to learn from... I'd apparently read it back in July, but now I can understand it more!


    It matches what I'd observed when I went back over longer term charts. While crashes were big slides, there was a down trend before almost all of them, several big dip days. And not one correction off a high and that's it. The only exception was 1987 (or whatever year it was). And that crash recovery then happened within something like 2 years or 6 months... not long enough to be a problem even if you were headed into retirement soon.


    What happened to the rally today? I went in early today... and a few indices are around break even, but small caps aren't holding up. ... Do they tend to rally less at end of year buying (lessor known than big cap names for portfolios to pad with?)


    Also I was wondering / thinking for next year, as money comes in, isn't it likely to be more conservative money. Those who moved out of bonds, or finally are getting back in very gingerly. So big & mega caps, and other very stable conservative stocks would be the most likely choices, i.e. be the market segment to overweight for next year? Fisher investments listed mega stocks as the place to be this year.
    26 Dec 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,


    U raised a good point,, as many slowly wade back in with their bond money , they will tend to buy the div. payers that may be considered conservative in nature.... Many managers are calling for the big tech mega caps to do well in '14 .. (MSFT) , (INTC), (CSCO) , etc..
    26 Dec 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @COINS


    I add ONE ASE annually since they began. So since you are an owner of a small coin shop when do you actually receive the monster box so I can plan on buying mine as the price is lower?


    The graded one's are too expensive so I just add a BU yearly. As I stated before I bought my bullion a while ago and don't plan on adding any more...


    Can't flip physical that easy like your store can :)
    26 Dec 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • @ Filipo
    Thanks, and the same to you !
    26 Dec 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Delivery on the monster Box I have already ordered is Jan. 20 by what the distributor told us. We are looking for better entry points for about 3 more monster boxes at the Fla. Fun Show.I have a partner that he buys in person and I buy on the phone and online. Sometimes 2 heads are better than one.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    Well Miami, Balt, GB, ALL choke today !! Meanwhile my J-E-T-S- and my other fav, the Panthers continue to roll.


    Meanwhile the wives Bronco's just roll along too !!


    Now let's see if the markets continue as well. Wife went shopping today, as it was in the 60's in NY, and the stores were packed !!


    People are spending she said. Most did have packages instead of window shoppers !!


    Let the good times roll !!
    22 Dec 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • GB played a pretty good game. They're still in it as of now. Looks to come down to next week's game vs. Chicago. Chicago is getting pummeled right now by the Eagles. Not sure if I'd want Rodgers to come back for next week's game or not - bad time to 'shake off the rust'. Flynn is playing some solid ball.


    My wife went to WMT today to get gifts for her office staff, and she said it was crazy busy. All I have to do before XMas is track down some king crab legs - Kroger put them on their XMas ad, but none of the Krogers have had any since the ad came out! They did have the bone-in rib roasts, though. Omnomnom. $8.99/lb. We got a 4-bone. :)


    We'll close out 2013 with sizable gains in both stocks and 401k. We passed my end-of-year 2014 targets already. I hope the good times do continue to roll. :)
    22 Dec 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • IT...I can tell you this much from where I sit in Land Development, we had a record year in the engineering and surveying business. Largest profit ever (20 years), and this after losing over 50% of the company in 2009 to layoffs, with 25% of the loss occurring on a single day. Things in our area are looking great and we've picked back up at least half of the positions lost with almost all of the growth coming in the last 12-14 months. I really think the economy had turned the corner.


    And if you've been on the sidelines you've missed a chance to make some nice gains! I'm ahead of schedule by about a year at this point.
    23 Dec 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » @CWINN


    Welcome, Glad to hear some industries are picking up hiring. I did sell some of my positions about a year ago. So I have missed out on the tops.


    But I am not smart enough to know when to hold them or fold them. At my age I have to be careful..


    Keep posting and again welcome !
    23 Dec 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Tough call on Rodgers. I mean if he isn't fully healthy is it worth the risk??
    22 Dec 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • The Graphs for Januaries temps for continental United States is above normal ,having the lowest December temps on record I have to credit the inventory call.
    Also Ford keeps my interest.
    23 Dec 2013, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL !!!!!


    Great year of info traded...
    23 Dec 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Merry Christmas IT !!!!!
    What's your'e favorite Christmas movie?


    This is probably mine :
    From the movie 'TRADING PLACES' Directed by the late great Aaron Russo ! And one of my favorite scenes.
    Billy Ray Valentine :" No thanks, guys, I already had breakfast this morning".
    Mortimer Duke: "This is not a meal, Valentine. We are here to try to explain to you what is we do here"
    . Randolph Duke: "We are 'commodities brokers', William. Now, what are commodities? Commodities are agricultural products... like coffee that you had for breakfast... wheat, which is used to make bread... pork bellies, which is used to make bacon, which you might find in a 'bacon and lettuce and tomato' sandwich."
    Randolph: " And then there are other commodities, like frozen orange juice... and gold. Though, of course, gold doesn't grow on trees like oranges. Clear so far?"
    Billy Ray: "Yeah" .
    Randolph Duke: "Good, William! Now, some of our clients are speculating that the price of gold will rise in the future. And we have other clients who are speculating that the price of gold will fall. They place their orders with us, and we buy or sell their gold for them."
    Mortimer Duke: "Tell him the good part."
    Randolph Duke: "The good part, William, is that, no matter whether our clients make money or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions."


    Mortimer Duke:" Well? What do you think, Valentine? "


    Billy Ray: " Sounds to me like you guys are a couple of bookies"


    Randolph Duke:" I told you he'd understand."
    23 Dec 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • @Coins


    One of my all time favorite movies. And they did play it yesterday. I've thought of that line (bookies) since I got to SA!
    25 Dec 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » COINS


    In my opinion the PEACE dollar is highly underrated ...What do you think? As a collector people flock to the Morgan's, yet many don't even look at the Peace dollars..


    I always wonder whose hands were on those coins from the 1800's. I find it a great hobby. Bullion is for a different reason:)
    26 Dec 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • The Peace dollar is a nice design but suffers from a weak strike in most years. The 1922 and 1923 are very common dates and usually have the best strike. The 1934 S with a good strike in Unc. condition is very hard to find. When it comes to "Whose hands" were on them,We always hope they had them in protected holders :) Uncs are what we look for in better dates.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » COINS


    If it is graded a MS62 I am not sure they were in protected sleeves. Do you ? BTW the Peace 1928 year is a toughie as well..


    I always thought the high relief on the 1922 were also tough ...
    26 Dec 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • The 1928 P (No mint mark) is hard to get ,and many 1928 S coins have been altered to become 28 Plains. But in 61 or above grade you are better to have the S mint mark ,if you look at how the S is priced in uncirculated grades. They were weak strikes in SF that year. I was fortunate enough to have a very high grade complete set once and took it to a National show in Atlanta I found out that the 28 S in high grade (About MS-64 ) was worth more than the 28 (Philadelphia) plain. It's always a learning experience.
    If it's graded and certified the holder is supposed to be sealed to protect the coin,and at the very least it will keep fingerprints off of it :)
    26 Dec 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • What about the "Obamascam" deadline ? Anyone think this floating piece of waste was still a good plan? How about the IRS having MORE power to enforce what we can do with our own bodies? Great stuff from "Derr Leader" ain't it?
    Even the Liberal rags are discussing how ludicrous this evil plan is..
    Here's a sample from U.S.A. today.


    The Internal Revenue Service probably will bark at you if you fail to obtain health insurance next year, but the agency won't have much bite. On this issue, Congress pulled the watchdog's teeth.


    The Affordable Care Act declares that most Americans will face a penalty if they're uninsured, starting in 2014. But experts predict the government will have a tough time forcing people to pay up.


    The IRS could deduct the penalty amount from any tax refund you're due. But what if you're not due a tax refund?


    "They might send you a sternly worded letter," said Andy Grewal, a University of Iowa law professor who specializes in tax issues.


    And if you toss the IRS' hectoring note into the recycling bin, you should brace yourself for, um, another sternly worded letter.


    Much has been made about the fact that the penalty for failing to obtain health insurance next year is set at just $95 or 1 percent of a person's income. (That amount is set to rise substantially in subsequent years, but it will remain less than the premiums on many insurance policies.) However, relatively few people know that the Affordable Care Act hamstrings the government's ability to collect the penalties.


    The IRS, which is in charge of enforcing compliance with the new insurance requirement, is accustomed to carrying big sticks. The first step it usually takes against tax scofflaws is to file public liens against them. Such a lien means the IRS has first dibs on any money you acquire, Grewal said.


    "It puts a cloud over all your assets," he said. "If there's a public record that the IRS is after you, no one's going to lend you money."


    That means no mortgage, no car loan, no credit cards — until you settle up with Uncle Sam.


    Grewal said liens are usually enough to bring tax deadbeats to heel. If not, the IRS can seize assets, including your car or your house. And in extreme cases, if you willfully refuse to pay taxes, authorities can charge you criminally, put you on trial and send you to prison.


    But when it passed the Affordable Care Act in 2010, Congress banned the IRS from using any of its usual techniques to force people to pay the penalty for failing to obtain health insurance.


    Alice Helle, a Des Moines lawyer who has been working on Affordable Care Act issues, speculated that members of Congress had political motives for disarming the IRS on this issue.
    23 Dec 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • If/when we lose employer subsidized healthcare, we won't get ANY coverage until: a) one of us gets sick - then we'll sign up for some random junk plan they have available, or b) the annual fine for not signing up to have our money re-distributed exceeds $18,000 (the approximate cost of a policy (affordable my ass) with benefits close to what we have now).


    Dear leader can stick THAT in his pipe and smoke it.
    23 Dec 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    I am sure that is why all the Hospitals now are WIFI FREE ! Cheaper to pay for that and let you sign up for insurance then attend to us without it :)
    23 Dec 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Amen to that JBT !!!
    23 Dec 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Dear leader already did that that's how he came up with the "PLAN".
    23 Dec 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I thought unemployment was under control. A 9 MONTH HIGH?



    I GUESS the FED won't be too happy with this, but it will force MORE out of the labor force for sure...
    23 Dec 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • As the market keeps climbing, What % of your portfolio are you keeping in cash (for dips or a correction)? Or temporarily devalued stocks for better entry points?




    For stock picking -- have you read any good books or sites on fundamentals ...........ones that step through what pieces of data to look for, & what they mean & where to find them?


    There are good books on technicals & psychology & general allocation and strategies that I've found helpful. There are a few SA authors who go through due diligence but... is there anything book-like that's a thorough step by step approach on fundamentals themselves (i.e. stock picking 101, researching fundamentals).
    24 Dec 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,


    Take a look at Investopedia -- . lots of good stuff there..


    Right now I have a bit over 20% in cash.. My approach is to harvest gains as a stock hits my target or seems stretched. Then deploy at better entry points. The core holdings like the div aristocrat names should just sit there and grow over time...


    Two that are not stretched and will do well as the negatives dissipate are (CSCO) & (TGT). As long as one has a LT view....IMO - Perfect for someone to get started and not worry about buying in at the highs.. Sit back & collect dividends..
    Happy Holidays
    24 Dec 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • F&G


    Is 20% high, or just about your usual over time?


    You hit on what I was wondering... if this (TGT) news made for good buying :). I haven't paid much attention to (CSCO). Are their weakness run of the mill, temporary? Seemed like they may not have played the business opportunities as well as could be, or aren't in the hottest end of tech businesses right now?


    I find Investopedia an overwhelming collection. (I use it to look up terms.) I need a starters manual... with a nice layout of what to do. With any online site, i find you have to do the work of sorting through the info, organizing it... It's much more time consuming amount of reading than a good book / instructional manual. I've asked around for this, and it seems like no one writes books on it?
    24 Dec 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it! It just started snowing here.
    24 Dec 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Merry Christmas to everyone, period. ;) To those that don't celebrate it, go fly a kite. :)




    Merry merry & happy Festivus.
    24 Dec 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • @JBT


    It's too coooold to fly a kite. I had to settle for the usual tradition -- Chinese food.


    Hope you had a happy & merry!
    25 Dec 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Everything was good. Belly is too full. Hope your Chinese was good. ;) I enjoy me some swimp fly lice from time to time, too. :)


    P.S. Some of the best kite flying weather is when it's chilly outside...
    25 Dec 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like


    My cash allocation fluctuates with the market and my own feelings.. Some would say that is high given the strength of the market.. and with me being bullish.. BUT I have lived thru downturns and my earlier mistakes came because I would get caught with not enough money to put to work . so when the market rebounded I would be at a break even point instead of being ahead of the game .. I learned the hard way .. :)


    If u don't have it, go to this link and download the US Div champion spreadsheet , in the "tools' section..
    Great info on the dividend champions
    (TGT) is a div. aristocrat --46 years of div payments ,a 10 year div growth rate of 18% ... Hold this over time and its a winner, Plus the stock is at the low end of its trading range because of the negative headlines.. Good companies will "figure it out " and the stock will appreciate from here given a little time.. I started a position in Sept There wil be More tax selling until end of year as the fund managers throw it away ... and I will add to my position...


    Many are negative on CSCO now since they gave out disappointing guidance . and the shares have under performed this year as the stock sold off to an area of support (20-21) where it sits now.. IMO its a bargain , a 25-26 dollar stock with a shot at $30 next year if all goes well, Tons of cash , good div that will grow.. so it doesn't hurt if I have to wait.. I added more to my position @ 20.58


    I have it as my "dog of the Dow" name for next year and look for 25% upside in what I consider a "safe" name ....
    24 Dec 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Coins


    Responding to your "floating piece or crap" comment, I say that fits Obamacare very well because Obamacare so far is working like crap. But its not just crap. It combines the most noted features of two famous systems: you get the authoritarianism of fascism combined with the incompetence and frustration of socialism.


    That's what you get when you have the IRS (fascist) partnering with the SSA (socialism) to help you get health insurance.


    Who wants to do a second set of tax returns each year? Doing it once is bad enough. Doing an Obamacare application is like doing another tax return if not worse:
    (have your tax return info, W-2s, SSNs for everyone, employer EIN & address & phone, upload required documentation, and have the application become corrupted, get locked out of it, and then spend hours on the phone with the MARKETPLACE.)


    At least when you do a tax return you can choose tax software that works. If you want to ruin your holidays just go online to and try to set up a user account and do an application.


    Actually, no, don't do it.


    Ps: Unanimous: No 1 lie/fraud of the year: "If you like you plan you can keep it. Period!"
    24 Dec 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Well said, JW. Watching the news of the poor little girl who's going to be 'unplugged' after going in to have her tonsils removed puts an exclamation point on how bad "healthcare" is.


    Myself, I'll make sure all my business is in order before I voluntarily enter the US 'healthcare' system. God help me if I have to go to an emergency room...
    24 Dec 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • JBT


    I posted a comment about having to go to the ER back in chapter 40. I was having a gall-stone episode and didn't know what it was. It is one of the most common adult GI maladies. The world-class teaching/research hospital ER didn't have a clue what it was either.
    I think we will be forced to go back to pre-modern, primitive, natural preventions and cures as the medical "health delivery" system becomes more incompetent and destructive.


    I am finishing some tax-prep CEs today and looking at occasional comments.


    Direct link to comment:
    25 Dec 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • F&G


    That's a great resource. I haven't seen it before. I had no idea of many of the names on it... guess when a stock "behaves" it doesn't make the news every other day :).


    On (TGT), i'm inclined to learn from the (RAD) buy, and wait till the news seems more out and absorbed, to buy. I don't know whether that's more likely to be a couple days or a couple weeks. Tax selling off is a good tip too -- wouldn't have thought of it -- but makes sense to make their portfolio look good.


    I'll have to look more at (CSCO). I expect (IBM) to stay stuck down 15% off it's top for a while more. So that's what's popping into my head... but (IBM) is a long term buy at these prices too... It'll be a while till their numbers gives them a boost again... I don't think there's a hurry to buy.


    I've got around 40% in. I'm going to add 20% more (probably tomorrow as the Santa Claus rally continues mostly into indices.) I'm not sure if I want to add another 20% from there. So curious what others are doing. If I was already in especially in indivdiual stocks, I'd leave it, but since it's already out... I can leave it out.
    25 Dec 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,


    I agree, IBM is a good LT buy . U may get a bounce in TGT once the tax selling is over..(this week ?) Managers are throwing these type of stocks away at end of year since no one wants to show it in their portfolio.. That is a good time to Start a position and the Div. helps while u wait for the turnaround , in the context that this is a LT play with a company that has paid div for 46 yrs..


    While there is no hurry , by the time u see a rebound on the "numbers" , the stock will have already recognized that and be up 10-15% .. That is why i suggest if u like a good solid company selling at a discount (TGT) (IBM) , it is ok to start a position ,and then add when u do finally see the rebound in fundamentals.. The dividends paid while u wait make all the diff in that approach ... IMO
    26 Dec 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • LOMAH, I like (IBM) too. Bought it a few weeks ago, and added some shares since then. Now I'm watching it go up. (IBM) is one that I had sold all my shares about 2 months back, as it started dropping. So I'm going back in slow, just a few shares at a time. It's a great company & I do believe they will sort out their problems. Meanwhile I'll monitor it in case they don't.


    IMO (RAD) is a tad speculative. I already own (CVS) - a really great company - and I would buy some (WAG) if the price ever gets lower. I'd rather be in solid, dividend paying drugstore stocks than (RAD). Just checked on The past year has been a great one for those that risked buying (RAD). Now click on the "earnings" tab. (RAD) is expected to drop 75% in the next 3 to 5 years. So that's enough research for me, that right there would prevent me from buying (RAD). You can do a quick check on the financials, click on that tab. Balance sheet is not that great….so (RAD) is risky, but that's just IMO.
    26 Dec 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Blue,
    Try (DCI) , they make filters for indutrial use, nothing special, but they are outstanding at what they.
    And with China and South America developing, the future looks bright. Besides, a family member of mine works there.
    26 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Filipo thanks, I've looked at Donaldson's (DCI) in the past. It's a good company, a little highly valued for me at this time. PE is 25.6 now, I would want to see that go down below 20 before buying. 18 or 17 would be ideal. Recently when (MMM) dipped, I bought some shares. Already almost a 7 % gain.


    If the dividend plus the expected growth rate equal 12 % or more, that is what I want. Also an iron clad balance sheet (low debt, lots of cash) and a high EPS (earnings per share) are attractive as well.


    Sometimes we get opportunities, when the market pulls back or a stock gets beat up. Like (IBM) (BP) (CMI) (VMI) (LO) etc. (BAC) could be a real winner in 2014 too.


    Always do your due diligence, which SA makes a little easier when an author does an in depth analysis of your target stock.


    I love stocks with low PE ratios, extremely high EPS, increasing earnings of 10% or better per year, a dividend that has been increasing for over 10 years, a strong balance sheet and in business for 50 + years. Surprisingly, there are still some good values out there right now.
    26 Dec 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Blue,
    you are absolutely right. Some say the market is overvalued,but that is not my impression, except of course for twitter, google, amazon & alii.
    thanks for your hint on (mmm), i'll give it a thought. (KO) looks not overvalued either. People think it will suffer from health-concerns,but if you look at the range of beverages they sell, including excellent natural waters, i'm confident that KO will do great.
    31 Dec 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Did the 10 years hit 3% today? If so, does the rising interest rate concern anyone?


    BSF..I agree with you on owning stocks long term. But I am trying to understand why you would not want even a small percentage in the metals?


    I always remembered the Financial Advisors from years past saying it should be part of everyone's portfolio. FEAR , has the strategy changed over the years ?


    I own some, but also own mutual funds as I am not smart enough to pick stocks on my own. I use a few Vanguard funds and I am happy. My only pick on my own has been (PSEC).


    Just a little confused on the metals % recommended. Or maybe it is zero recommended nowadays..


    Just some random thoughts...Hope everyone had a great Christmas ( who celebrate it)..,my Jewish friends always take in a movie on Christmas..
    26 Dec 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • IT:


    Rising rates will take dollar higher. Not favorable at all for gold.
    26 Dec 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK


    I never asked if it was or wasn't favorable for gold. I was more concerned about paying our debts back at a higher rate..


    Sorry if you misunderstood my question...
    26 Dec 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • They are not "our" debts. :) If you want them, you can have them - don't insinuate they are mine in any way.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT


    Silly me, I just *willed* mine to you !
    26 Dec 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • A new hole has been dug and someone has to get in it.Like the old commercial " lets see if Mike'y likes it".
    26 Dec 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    The recommended metals % now depends on the advisor and to some extent the company they work for .. .. Many still have the belief that 10-15% is a proper allocation..


    The independent advisors I speak with today range from zero to 10 % as a guide.. . Many saw that it didn't perform as insurance in the financial crisis years and have moved away from any allocation....
    26 Dec 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FEAR


    Thanks. as you can tell from my post I am no


    But I find it interesting that some say zero.. After I posted my comment I was asked for a person retiring in about 7 years what Vanguard fund would I recommend.


    I am not smart enough to recommend anything. So do you or anyone have any list of mutual funds that they feel comfortable with ? Person states it would be started NOW, but not used for appx 15 years.


    Person is open to all opinions. Does not have to be Vanguard funds. But they do not want single stocks, as they have a concern about it..


    It sounds like they have not invested on their own before but want to jump on the train as it seems to be going north !!!
    26 Dec 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • IT,


    Sounds like this person needs to do a lot of reading. Extremebanker pointed me towards this paper some time ago:



    Recommendations are basically different funds for different types of assets and use a moving average to know when to get out. If this person only wants to consider mutual funds or etfs, this would be worth reading.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • My wife's allocation (20% to each) since 2005 has been (PRFDX), (TRMCX), (PRNHX), (VMGRX), and (VSIIX).


    Selection method was basically 'darts at the list of funds'... All 5 funds have done quite well in that timeframe.
    26 Dec 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    nothing wrong with any of the Vanguard funds, the fund " user" has in the portfolio challenge (VTSMX) is a great choice , as u can see how it has performed with the market..


    I am familiar with the fund manger that manages these two (Richard Bernstein) --Eaton Vance funds (ERBAX) , (EARAX) ,


    (GSRLX) Goldman Sachs Rising div fund is another


    I suggest dividing money into 4 different pieces, invest first piece now wait 2 months or so then 2nd and so on.. I would not dump entire amount into market now.....
    26 Dec 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Guys


    Thanks for the input !!
    26 Dec 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT here is one of my Vanguard funds my wife and I have done very well with since 2011 'Target Retirement 2030 Trust Plus' it has grown from about 10 K to currently about 14 K
    And we have another Vanguard fund that has not performed quite as well 'Vanguard International Growth Fund Admiral Shares ' (VWILX);_ylt=ArTo2Tya80nMVO_E...
    All in all I am happy with our Vanguard Funds .They are part of our paper retirement .Plan A .
    26 Dec 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » "Inflation hits five-year high in Japan


    Dec 26 2013, 21:54


    Japan November core CPI: +1.2% on year versus 1.1% expected.


    Japan November industrial production (M/M): +0.1 versus +0.4% expected.


    Japan November industrial production (Y/Y): +5%.


    Japan November retail sales (Y/Y): +4% versus +2.9% expected.
    The read on inflation is the highest in more than five years. See also: Kuroda stresses need to ward off deflation"


    Was this caused by the devaluation of their currency??
    27 Dec 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A question that probably belongs in the reading chapter.


    Which magazine is the best to buy for Bloomberg's, Money, etc..


    27 Dec 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • FORBES year end edition !
    27 Dec 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Only the year end edition? Why not get a years subscription.


    Are the Cabana Girls in that edition ??
    27 Dec 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • On what to read...


    Great question. I'm looking to find out too!


    "Money" used to be the lower end, common person's magazine. Not for the serious investor but for the regular folk to feel like they were keeping up. My reads of it more recently says it's improved. I find it good for general ideas... such as learning that new ETFs have come out about dividend stocks. Or new rules on IRAs. Any stock suggestion is long meaningless by the time it's published.


    Online I've tried out MarketWatch because I thought it was well respected. It's been one bearish article after another -- and number of which are downright silly. Such as long ago crashes lined up with current charts to scare... with no respect for math or science. Their streaming data is useful. -Some- of the articles have meat on how to do something. Mark Hubert is the worse offender. He got famous by rating investment advisors on their actual track records with his publication. So he knows plenty. Wish he'd share it.


    Hope someone with a favorite, posts about it!
    30 Dec 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Bull sentiment at a high. Is this a short term contrarian indicator?


    Or is the measure not very relevant now a days with the Fed's actions determining bull vs. bear, instead of economic measures & news vs market value?



    "Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Index rose 7.6 points to 55.1% in the week ended yesterday, the highest level since early January 2011. The long-term bullish average is 39%.
    Bearish sentiment slumped 6.5 points to 18.5%. The long-term average is 30.5%."


    Is the AAII investor sentiment a good source for sentiment?
    27 Dec 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,


    I mention the AAII and another gallup survey in commentary i'm writing for my blog ------which I'll finish tomorrow ..


    As noted the AAII is a good contrarian indicator ..
    27 Dec 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • On Nasdaq


    I've gotten into various indices & related stocks, Russell 2000 small cap, S&P500, DOW........but on the Nasdaq, how much is due to current high valuations on "bets" like Twitter? I've hesitated to get into a Nasdaq index for that reason.


    I'm sure it can claim for a bit longer. But will the fall be more exaggerated with such "dot.coms" holding it up?
    27 Dec 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • FG


    Sounds good to read, thanks :).


    BTW, also thank you for correcting me on puts vs. calls. (I have it right in my notes, just not in my head yet.)




    On Nasdaq, I bought then quickly sold yesterday ($22 loss), with a sense of "mistake." Based on overvaluations. So far today, glad I did. (I did keep my original core amount & other equities I bought yesterday.)
    27 Dec 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Lomah,


    'Twitter my get the headlines , but its not representative of the Nasdaq.


    Plenty of value there .. start with names like (CSCO) , (MSFT)
    27 Dec 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • What if you're buying the whole index (QQQ)?


    I'm keeping some in indexes right now. (Stock picking takes research time so it'd slower for getting in.)
    28 Dec 2013, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • Even a great Portfolio changes over time I advise myself on extreme humility.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK,Who is going to get the 6th seed in the AFC..


    Miami, Baltimore, S.D, or Pitt?


    I ALSO THINK THE FIRST TIE BREAKER IS WRONG. It is Conference play, I think it should be head to head if you played each other.


    Baltimore beat Miami yet is behind them with identical records. That has to change!!


    I think Pitt actually sneaks in ..
    29 Dec 2013, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • How 'bout them Packers? ;) Season spoilers for both the Lions and the Bears. Love it. Rodgers shook off the rust pretty good. Home game next week. One more week, at least. ;)
    29 Dec 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • And Cobb from Alcoa didn't do too bad either. I hope they win next week .
    30 Dec 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Dividend Aristocrats - how many stocks?


    If switching to individual stocks, instead of indices... how many stocks do you like to pick up in this category (dividend aristocrats) to feel you've covered it?


    How much per stock to feel it's enough to appreciate the gains, but not so much to be too risky?


    I normally keep 70% small cap to 30% large cap indices. I'm going to switch this year to 40% large or mostly mega cap. Maybe even more, if I see the tread to save dividend stocks winning over small cap betting.


    I can randomly buy things, then add to them again. But I still need to develop what I'm aiming for as my long term picture.
    30 Dec 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • LOMAH, always buy your individual stocks at extremely good value, that is make sure you are getting a bargain. When you are looking at a stock to buy, if it's not a growth stock (very different from good value or DGI stocks) then look for a low PE, and a beat up price. (IBM) was recently around $176 (under $180 was an excellent entry point - but only if you believe (IBM) will get back it's mojo) so I started buying back in. Now it's $187. The problem I have with stock picking is that once you buy a stock, you aren't done with research/keeping an eye on it. Some stocks, like the Dividend Aristocrats, are great but getting in at a good price is a challenge. (MCD) has been a real no go stock this past year. But I'm patient, if (MCD) starts reporting better numbers in 2014 I'll stay in. At least it pays a dividend while it is going nowhere.


    Growth stocks, like (TSCO) (SBUX) (KKD) (DNKN) (AMBA) (GALE) are exciting to own. If they take off, the returns can be amazing. (AMBA), (MCK), (NOC) (TSCO) have all done great. Of course, the stinkers in my portfolio do take some of wind out of those sails. Counting on (NDLS) to start to do better. It has been awful the past month, so I bought some more of it to lower my cost.


    I like ETFs & some mutual funds, because you don't have to watch them as much. (PTY) paid a huge Dec. bonus dividend, & since has fallen slowly to just over $17. If it goes lower, it's a good one to have in your portfolio. Pimco is an excellent company.


    Maybe as I get older, I'll transfer more money into ETFs & mutual funds, just so I don't have to work so hard.


    If you are looking at emerging markets, don't forget Mexico & S. Korea. They are expected to do well in 2014.


    Happy New Year to all, and may 2014 bring you all good health, happiness & prosperity.
    31 Dec 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • You guys have a happy new year.
    31 Dec 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Hi BSF,


    I decided to get into (IBM) and (TGT), then realized, I didn't have a sense of -how much- to put in. So what do you use per individual stock (by percent or dollar...)?


    I still think (TGT) is a buy, but I missed the opening with (IBM). I'm not sure I want it at $187. I'm going to see how it looks on down days. I was wondering how you noticed (IBM) before it came back in vogue, then realized, you'd noticed when the price had gone down. So I've added that concept to my "bag of tools" to learn to do. I don't think (IBM) was get as much mojo short term, but over the longer term - it will do just fine.


    I still have to check out more companies like the ones you've listed... I think yours and Fear's point is excellent, that for the dividend aristocrats, it's good to look for entry points. I want to check out more ETFs too. With those it's important to look for liquidity and decent management. With so many "newfangled" ones coming out, it helps reduce risk to go for solid, well known ones. (PTY) does look interesting.


    (NDLS), I thought about buying into opening day (but wasn't home or something). For longer term, I'm skipping it. It's good management, but their debt rate is very high - it's what they IPOed for, not simply to raise money for expansion. Mostly it's that my mom and I ate there and weren't overly impressed. It will do decently, but I expect it to be rockier than Chipolatas was out the chute. (I happened to have researched NDLS.)


    I didn't know Mexico and S. Korea are expected to do well... that's good to know. I'm going to do ETFs for foreign exposure. I'm wondering if it's time to get into China, after several poor years. Seems like of pointless - which also seems to match with when things do well.


    I also noticed there are commodities ETFs. With the poor past 3 years, wondering if they're good exposure...


    Any thoughts on amounts you use, or how many you use to get diversity in a category?


    Happy New Year everyone! Thanks for all the banter, advice, and info! Hope I've added something too. May it be a prosperous and peaceful year all around the global!
    31 Dec 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like

    1 Jan, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • IT i have moved on to the new page and discussion,thank you.
    1 Jan, 06:30 PM Reply Like
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