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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Half a month and it seems like were stuck in neutral.. Opinions?

     

    Gotta wake TACK up !! FOR ALL....Name the best athlete to wear number 45 !!!
    16 Jan, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    After 30% up in 2013, dome profit-taking, a pause, awaiting earnings reports. Nothing dramatic.

     

    Hey, where's my kudos for picking all four playoff games correctly? :-)

     

    Best #45? It helps to be an oldster sometimes: Bob Gibson

     

    16 Jan, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Yup, your Kudos was on my list. I was off by that Carolina game which I knew would be tough.

     

    Speaking of tough. Who would like to embarrass themselves with this weeks football picks? I will take Seattle and Denver..

     

    BEST #45....kudos TO YOU on that as well. Us oldies knew that one. Sorry AL...Did you forget Bob ???

     

    No one ever dug in the batters box against him !!
    16 Jan, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I'm taking the points. An SF-NE Super Bowl.
    16 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Only my bookie talks points.. SA would ban me if I started talking points..lol..So I assume you are picking SF AND NE ??

     

    Curious why they are starting the games late on Sunday though ? I know the time difference. But first game at 3pm ??
    16 Jan, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    M.Jordan on his 3rd comeback.
    16 Jan, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Im going with SF & NE ...this weekend

     

    on the markets - stocks just consolidating after new high on the S & P ..
    IMO, forming an intermediate top or getting ready for another push higher.. I think the latter maybe in the cards..

     

    Gold - chart looks constructive for a push to maybe 1300 ??

     

    Banks are doing Ok, (BAC) & (JPM) at new highs , after good earnings

     

    (GS) earnings ok-- stock is fairly valued here (C) IMO the drop today is a buying opportunity.. All look to be higher later in year..

     

    As far as the gold comment,, i need someone to explain to me how someone in India would pay 1500/oz when it can be bought for 1240 ? not meant to be argumentative ... Isn't 1240 "the real world" price ?

     

    Please explain

     

    If gold is 'rigged" it gets rigged on the way up as well as the way down , its just a matter of what one chooses to believe....

     

    same as the thoughts on the equity market being 'rigged" .. I find however , its usually "sour grapes" that comes into the equation...
    16 Jan, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    As you know the challenge is for fun.. I would get off the bus if gold hit $1300 to be honest. My play in (NUGT) is just for this happening..

     

    I too am interested in Indiana's comment on India selling at $1500 bucks. I believe they have a high tariff but am unsure . MAYBE Doug can also answer it...

     

    Just added to my (PSEC) holdings and found Bogle's ( vanguard ) comments on FBN'S interesting !! Basically said to not try and time the market and to stay 100% invested all the time. No one knows what will happen in the future and index funds are killing managed funds the last 5 years.

     

    Anyone have facts to disprove his comments??
    16 Jan, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 3rd marriage ??
    16 Jan, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    IT, good to see you back & cranky as ever! Those drugs must not be working ; ) If they were, you would be a happy camper for sure. Feel better, and get back to being lazy, so your back won't get stressed.

     

    Did you know that (NUGT) and (DUST) both deteriorate over time? Every month, you will lose some % (not sure if it's 10 % but whatever percentage it is, it increases over time). This means that your original purchase of (NUGT) has already lost roughly 10%. If the price of gold increases, you will not see your (NUGT) go back to the price it was corresponding to the price of gold when you bought (NUGT). If by some miracle gold goes over $1300, then your (NUGT) would go up.

     

    Both (NUGT) & (DUST) are really not meant to be held long term. They are heavily day-traded, which also makes it harder for you to make money being a long-term holder.

     

    As a learning example in the portfolio challenge, you are proving that putting your entire investible amount in one stock is not a good idea.

     

    And that (NUGT) and (DUST) really won't work in the long run.

     

    So thank you for that!
    16 Jan, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Exactly F&G, so if gold is being manipulated, it's not just being manipulated to keep the price down. Funny how nobody was complaining during gold's long rally to the upside, 2009 to 2013!

     

    Furthermore, if you believe that gold is being manipulated, then why in the world would you be trying to invest in it??? Why not just buy your physical gold, bury it somewhere & be done.

     

    Good grief, if the people wasting so much time hollering about the manipulation of gold would just find other things to invest in, they might actually make some $.

     

    Everything is rigged, if you want to think that way. Then you start thinking that the traffic lights are rigged, your phone is bugged, your tv is spying on you & the FBI/CIA/IRS plus the local police are all after you….time to take a reality check and maybe some major meds.

     

    Even with the market down today, I'm making $. And not just in (GALE) and (AMBA)….lots of my stocks were up today.

     

    I don't care about the "market" so much as my stocks, ETFs, etc. And they are doing pretty good ; )

     

    Funny thing about the drug stocks, food stocks, otherwise known as consumer staples. They go up when the market goes down! (MCD), (MCK), (KMB), (NDLS) and many of my stocks were up today.

     

    The USA is doing all right.
    16 Jan, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    F&G, India does not have enough gold to satisfy the demand. The gov't has made it hard for people to bring gold into the country….so this is why gold could command a higher price in India than elsewhere.

     

    India's obsession with gold is hurting their economy.

     

    http://ti.me/1at5Ixu

     

    It is sad in a country so poor that they are doing this to themselves.
    16 Jan, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I was surprised myself to see my real life portfolio have a very good day - up 0.44%. I'll take it. :)
    16 Jan, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF.

     

    Is it July already?:) Is the contest over ?

     

    You do know your paper stocks also deteriorate over time ? Yup, your cash is worth less every month.

     

    Just thought I would point that out.. I guess your positive gold won't go up in value so why not invest in (NUGT)? Just sayin..

     

    and I am not cranky !!!
    16 Jan, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Ever hear of the NSA ???

     

    btw.. mine is buried . I just can't remember where..

     

    Just because ONE stock now puts you in first place doesn't give you the right to sound like my wife...lol..

     

    Geez , one women is enough. I read your post where you actually think women are good for us men ??Really huh ??

     

    I have an old joke that I refuse to type here, but if any of you men want to hear it just PM me...Women are good for us ..wow.
    16 Jan, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Good for you !! I like winners...
    16 Jan, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF.

     

    India ALWAYS had this obsession.. That comment might get deleted for passing out false information..
    16 Jan, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    BlueSky, One cannot compare NUGT or DUST to the price of gold. These ETN's track different baskets of mining stocks that will outperform or under-perform gold.

     

    If one held DUST the last couple of years they would have made a killing, much more than the decline in the price of gold percentage wise, and at some point, after gold bottom's, they will make a killing in NUGT which will be higher than the price of gold percentage wise.

     

    There is a price to pay for leverage, but to have a product to invest in that gives you 3X the return can make one rich....or poor, depending on how they trade/invest.

     

    In the meantime, I do agree in this kind of market they do make good trading vehicles. Cut losses and take profits.

     

    F&G, no one complains about rigging on the way up, lol.
    16 Jan, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOUG

     

    We can't knock her right now as she is the QUEEN of our portfolio challenge..

     

    But thanks for the explanation...
    16 Jan, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IT, didn't know I was knocking, just explaining! I agreed they are good for trading. :-)
    16 Jan, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    IT, you are too funny.

     

    Of course women are smarter than men. Is there any doubt?

     

    Besides, who would take care of everything, if it weren't for women telling you what to do.

     

    Now go back to burnishing your gold hoard lol, but you will probably have to ask your wife where you hid it. Typical!
    16 Jan, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    OK, ok ok - you're not cranky ; )

     

    I think we should keep this contest running forever.

     

    just sayin'
    16 Jan, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF..

     

    BURNISHING ???? You are a closet coin collector aren't you ??

     

    No one knows these types of words unless your a bug !!

     

    COINS....What do you think?
    16 Jan, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Blue, what are you invested in that has you doing so well?
    16 Jan, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    That is my hope ...Get some new blood occasionally and learn along the way !!

     

    You gold bug ....
    16 Jan, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Blue
    did u see the recent report that women hedge fund managers are outperforming their male counterparts ? It's a fact,,
    16 Jan, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    Why on earth would you ? WHY ???
    16 Jan, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • indianamark
    , contributor
    Comments (2025) | Send Message
     
    $1240 is the Comex price set by bid and asked. When you have 10 buy orders and someone dumps 500 sell orders, down goes the price. This happens all the time. No attempt is made to disguise it anymore.

     

    J P Morgan took delivery of 6254 gold contracts of 6493 tendered in Dec. The limit for any one trader is 3.000 contracts, but you don't tell J P Morgan what to do.

     

    India established a black market in gold. As with prohibition, alcohol was banned and consumption increased. To obtain it you paid a higher price. This is the gold market in India.

     

    Argentina is a good example of the precious metal market. The government set artificially low prices and the products disappeared. Now a man drives to Columbia once a week to buy rice at 10 times the price.

     

    Kinda like today's PM market. The government surrogate? keeps the prices artificially low and the product is disappearing to the BRICS. When the shelves are bare we can expect a price 10 times today's phoney baloney Comex price.
    16 Jan, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    LOL -- shhh its reverse psychology ... .)
    16 Jan, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Indianamark,

     

    If the price went to 10x, wouldn't the BRIC folk sell it back, or are we to assume they are ignorant?

     

    I just don't and never have gotten the 'end game' to this scenario.... Who cares if they 'have it all'? In what way would that impact ME? Or anyone in the US? Will we become their servants because they have all the gold?
    16 Jan, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Indiana,

     

    when there are 10 buy orders and 500 sell orders the price will go down whether its gold or soybeans or a stock price - its called supply and demand.. whether someone decides to "dump" their sell orders on a market it is hardly rigged or manipulated -- its part of trading 101 .. it doesn't have to be "disguised"
    ever hear of "short sellers" and a "bear raid in the equity market ??
    I wouldn't compain about what u cited as "rigged"

     

    as for the rest of your story -- unfortunatley the "phoney baloney" comex price is what the rest of the world uses.. not what some person in India , china or argentina or anywhere else is paying on the black market from criminals.
    16 Jan, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Doug, here's the link to our portfolio challenge

     

    http://bit.ly/14r9aJ1
    You should try it out, it's fun.
    16 Jan, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    yup, but I didn't want IT to see that…he might get cranky!
    16 Jan, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Sure they might sell some of it back, but at what price? Think of jewelry now costing 5x what we pay for it now !

     

    Just an example. I asked my jewelry guy what he would pay for a gold necklace I bought 20 years ago. I was floored what he offered. So maybe that is part of the equation..??

     

    If someone "has it all" nothing good comes from it.. I mean anything you can think of. From gasoline to bread...
    16 Jan, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    How so? I did not notice a price differential in anything when gold went from $1900+/ounce to under $1200/ounce...

     

    Going back further to when it was sub-$400/ounce, what changed then? Nothing.

     

    My son is old enough to have been around when silver was less than $7/ounce.... Nothing has happened to bread except inflation. Gas is influenced by so many things, but I don't think gold and who or who does not own it is one of them.
    16 Jan, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    You misunderstood me. What I meant was if someone owned ALL of anything they control the price. Like a monopoly.. Not that gold or silver would influence the price of bread or gas..

     

    But if you tried to buy a necklace when gold was $1900 you got a bracelet instead.. So the price of gold did adjust what one could buy made of gold...

     

    Kabish !!
    16 Jan, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    You just broke the cardinal rule. Handing out the link to someone that does not play. PENALTY....$5K and you go directly to jail..

     

    Don't worry though, those NJ guys will bail you out in a minute. Just call your Governor and say you voted for him !!

     

    Sure he will open a few "LANES" for you to get out !
    16 Jan, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Only a select subset of people would be affected. Much ado about nothing. I have my wedding ring and a few teeth - that's all I need. :)

     

    It would be nice, though - the Indians and the Chinese could decorate their mud huts in gold bricks and gilded knick-knacks. Unfortunately it still wouldn't change the fact that they can't grow enough food to feed their people, and most of 'em don't have indoor plumbing (or any plumbing at all).
    16 Jan, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • indianamark
    , contributor
    Comments (2025) | Send Message
     
    The gold going to China and India will never come back. It represents real wealth to them. Why would they sell it for worthless dollars. It is an open secret that China wants to have the world's reserve currency. They may have 5,000 to 10,000 tons of gold now. Who knows? they have imported, as far as we can tell, 3,000 tons in the past two years, plus they keep all of their own production.

     

    Historically the world power with the most gold makes the rules. The U. S. has lost its industrial base. We have lost the buyers of our Treasuries. We are dismantling our military power. We have alienated many of our long time allies. And we are losing our gold as fast as Asia, Russia and the Middle East can buy it----at a discounted price.
    16 Jan, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • indianamark
    , contributor
    Comments (2025) | Send Message
     
    True, the Comex sets the price. That is why it is so easy to rig. If you sold 500 contracts would you dump them in an overnight, illiquid market to drive down the price? Who has 400 tons of gold to sell? These aren't free market trades. They are market manipulation.

     

    The C.O.T. and Monthly bank reports tell us something else. Every time the 'Commercials' trigger the Spec's sell stops, the 'Commercials' buy.

     

    Ted Butler, Harvey Organ and others have proven many times the tricks of our friendly banker. Just today, the enforcement officer of Germany's market says the gold market manipulation is a worse scandal than the Libor manipulation.
    16 Jan, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Yet where would you rather live? Will the Chinese use their gold fortunes to build more cities that their people can't live in? Is it your contention that when they have enough 'booty' they will 'take us over'?

     

    The PM's have gotten much cheaper, and are in abundant supply - moreso here than in the countries you mentioned.

     

    Do you think if the Chinese government has all the gold they somehow become magically omnipotent?
    16 Jan, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » INDIANA

     

    You make a valid point that if ANY investor wants to get out of a position they do it slowly as to not effect the price drastically. I am not talking about the average Joe here. I mean an Investment Bank or a Hedge Fund.

     

    So I agree that this dumping is worse then people understand. Again, as I learn on this site certain facts seem curious and obvious..

     

    Doesn't make us a *bug* pointing these things out !
    16 Jan, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Indianamark,

     

    "If you sold 500 contracts would you dump them in an overnight, illiquid market to drive down the price? Who has 400 tons of gold to sell?"

     

    Replace 'gold' in that quote with 'corn', or 'oil', or 'copper', or any commodity (with adjusted measures (barrels, bushels, carloads, etc.)).... Welcome to the futures market.

     

    It is people with more money than us making money. It is not some nefarious plot.
    16 Jan, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    GET TO WSB & THUMBS UP FOR DC ! DOO WHOP TIME !
    17 Jan, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link Blue. I probably will join in a bit.
    17 Jan, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    it is manipulated as long as it's reinvested justified.
    Volume and market cap is where it's at.
    Don't forget DB's targets on that i think -14.5%
    18 Jan, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    (TLT) floating around.
    18 Jan, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    what are you looking for the Spike,we know what the targets are.
    some of the consensus is it will be driven up before the targets are realized just to drop,it did correlate well with QE then went into quality paper.
    D bank has never been wrong it's just the timing.
    18 Jan, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nu Skin accelerates dive after reopening

     

    Reopened for trade following its acknowledgement of a Chinese investigation, Nu Skin (NUS -35.7%) tumbles even further.
    "Not all MLM are alike," says Citron Research, defending Herbalife (HLF -13.1%). "Citron has NO evidence (their emphasis) that HLF is operating a pyramid in China."

     

    What is it with China??
    16 Jan, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just got a PM from a poster friend, named Ho Li Crappo, stating more false information isn't anything new...NU SKIN is in trouble.

     

    Meanwhile the banks seem to be turning in lackluster numbers. Citi AND Goldman underperformed and blamed it on fixed income ??

     

    Ben says Bye bye ...

     

    Thoughts??
    16 Jan, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    IT & Co,
    Citi & GS are heavy in Utility Diversified their have been rate freezes 2 years out and during that time the companies are responsible for their own infra structure cost and can't charge for any commodity increase
    it's pretty fixed.

     

    I'm looking forward to the reign of MS.Yellen i believe for where we are on the chart their may be some relief.

     

    The Chinese sold us the Rope we would hang from and bought it too.
    16 Jan, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Gold
    (GDX)
    (AUY)
    Silver
    (SLW)
    (HL)
    (CDE)
    16 Jan, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Pedro Martinez

     

    Resolve where the "Resistance" and affect a break out.
    16 Jan, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I COPIED THIS FROM THE LAST CHAPTER HOPING PEOPLE WOULD RESPOND HERE !!

     

    indianamark Comments (1877)

     

    Some still want to claim there is no manipulation of precious metals. We still have the joke called Comex setting the price. Yesterday the U. S. Mint asked $43.95 for an American Silver Eagle. The only problem was they were out of stock.The Mint didn't sell any ASE's after Dec. 9, 2013 and not until, I believe, this past Monday.

     

    The price of gold in India is reported to be $1500.00 an ounce. and selling like never before.

     

    So we have higher prices in the real world and shortages everywhere and an unrealistic Comex price. If the prices aren't rigged, you could have fooled me.
    16 Jan, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Apmex (who is typically higher-priced) has all the gold you want for right around $1270/ounce. Maybe there's a possible side business - buy it here and sell it in India...

     

    If people are paying twice the going rate for silver coins, it is not for the silver content...

     

    There is no shortage of gold or silver...
    16 Jan, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    So how would you hide it to import gold into India?? Never mind.

     

    I just had a picture of what you might suggest. Golden Tush ??
    16 Jan, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    That's what women are for... ;) j/k It's about time the Indians got price gouged... Check out their prices at the mini-marts! C'mon, guys... j/k. ;)

     

    To say there is a shortage of silver because the US Mint was out of a 'collectible', however, is a joke of a different breed. You can buy 20 pounds (or 100 pounds, or a metric ton) of the stuff at just a touch over spot prices.

     

    Just because a rare baseball card demands a high price does not necessarily mean (no, it does NOT mean, period) that all baseball cards will fetch the same price because they are made of the same paper product.

     

    Indianamark's comment suggested to me that he lives is some kind of fantasy world.
    16 Jan, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Ever run out of milk at 2am and the wife sends you out for it because of the kids...??

     

    Yup, I have to ask the clerk , do you have change of a hundred only to be handed 50 cents...( embellished)
    16 Jan, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Can someone tackle what MLM'S are ??

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Article on them, but some don't know what exactly they are ..

     

    Thanks !!
    16 Jan, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Multi-level marketing, I think. That's where you sell crap (Amway, Avon, etc.), and try to get other people to sell it, too. Then you get a cut of their sales, etc... The classic 'pyramid' scheme.

     

    Kind of like the business world's version of a chain letter... Remember those?
    16 Jan, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bingo !

     

    Ex father in law was a distributor of Shacklee. Although they did have some good products. But over 20 years ago he kept trying to get me to be a seller.

     

    I guess he wanted to make a profit off of me !! lol
    16 Jan, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    MLM
    A pyramid way of marketing products at an excessively marked up price.

     

    I was inan airport once when I saw 2 Hari Krishnas running as fast as they could to the exits. I asked them "What's going on" ? They shouted back
    " There' s an Amway salesman in the airport"
    16 Jan, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » COINS

     

    You do standup ??
    16 Jan, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    @ IT
    I do some entertaining
    http://bit.ly/1cxiryS
    16 Jan, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Come on. Is that really you ? Did you look at the amount of hits you got? Plus I see about 10 people in the audience.

     

    But is that you ??? Do you trust this coin dealer....lol..
    16 Jan, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    I was entertaining a group of old folks in their church gym, We had a Buddy Holly and a Johnny Cash impersonator as well.I didn't think it would go viral,my brother did the video with a camera that records video, so I was surprised it was as good a recording as it was Nearly 200 views WooHoo.
    17 Jan, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BlackRock's Fink sees rotation back into fixed income?????

     

    "We actually saw institutions selling equities and buying bonds, especially the long end of the curve," says BlackRock (BLK +1.7%) CEO Larry Fink, making the rounds after a big earnings report this morning. Institutions with big profits in stocks are asking themselves if they need such large exposure to equities, he continues. "The answer was that they need to be a little more balanced."

     

    Fink's comments square with other reports of a rotation back into fixed income as corporations all of a sudden find their pension funds fully funded thanks to the market rally.

     

    Within fixed income, Fink sees another rotation - and that's out of paper pegged to something like the Aggregate Bond Index (AGG +0.2%) and into "unconstrained" bond funds - not tied to the long end, but instead trying to grab yield without adding duration.

     

    MEANWHILE ..Vanguard just kicked butt with money sent in !! 138B added in 2013...way ahead of rivals!!
    16 Jan, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    IT,,
    could be another reason why the equity market started off slowly..

     

    If i take my money out of equities it wont be going into the "long end" that's for sure....
    16 Jan, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    I ma with you, but maybe that is why I am broke...

     

    BSF is now the guru until someone knocks her off her pedestal. Come on someone , do it !!
    16 Jan, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    In the prior thread, IndianaMark said the following that I would like to comment on: "Some still want to claim there is no manipulation of precious metals. We still have the joke called Comex setting the price. Yesterday the U. S. Mint asked $43.95 for an American Silver Eagle. The only problem was they were out of stock.The Mint didn't sell any ASE's after Dec. 9, 2013 and not until, I believe, this past Monday.

     

    The price of gold in India is reported to be $1500.00 an ounce. and selling like never before.

     

    So we have higher prices in the real world and shortages everywhere and an unrealistic Comex price. If the prices aren't rigged, you could have fooled me."

     

    Hi Mark, Every January (beginning in December actually) the gold dealers order as many 2014 silver eagles as they can and send them off to get them graded MS 69 or MS 70 by PCGS. They in turn double the price on them or more and call them "early release" or "first strike." Of course the U.S. Mint charges whatever they want which is usually outrageous to begin with.

     

    It's pure profit for the gold dealers and the U.S. Mint.

     

    From a personal note, my sales have slowed tremendously after a fantastic December with the price fall. I contacted my suppliers and they too have seen an overall slow down. Of course this is retail, but I do know that two months last year I had record sales followed by an upturn in the price of gold and silver; April and December.

     

    16 Jan, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WHAT SHOULD OUR POTUS DO ??

     

    Canada loses patience on Keystone XL, tells U.S. to make a decision

     

    Canada appears to be losing patience with U.S. foot dragging over the Keystone XL pipeline (TRP +0.8%), as Canada Foreign Minister John Baird tells a D.C. audience that his country wants a decision on the project - even a negative one - sooner rather than later.

     

    It appears to mark the first time a senior Canadian official has directly criticized Washington on the topic: "The time for a decision on Keystone is now, even if it’s not the right one. We can’t continue in this state of limbo."

     

    PM Harper turned a bit testy last week when he said Pres. Obama had "punted” the decision on Keystone.

     

    Earlier: CEO Russ Girling says TRP might look at building rail terminals to get crude oil shipped to the U.S. in the absence of new pipeline infrastructure.
    16 Jan, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I think they just found some kind of sparrow that gets anxiety attacks if trucks carrying pipeline materials come within 50 miles of their habitat. They've probably launched phase one of the study into the ecological impact of anxious sparrows, and will get back to Canada when the study is complete in 2024.
    16 Jan, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    thanks for the insight

     

    my only reply to that kind of markup is WOW ..

     

    and simply leave it at that ...
    16 Jan, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    F&G...there is a reason why they can afford to hire the likes of Glen Beck and Sean Hannity and advertise so much on their shows.

     

    I am extremely confident I could become very wealthy quickly doing the same thing. I choose not to.

     

    Imagine if you could sell your stocks with a markup of 100% and keep the difference! (I do realize some dealers charge less than 100%, but still double digits over bullion Eagles)...
    16 Jan, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Can they still afford Hannity & Beck? Last one I saw hawking gold was William Devane... And then I saw him pushing some kind of herbal BPH concoction...

     

    At least we don't have the dancing sign holders all over the place anymore...
    16 Jan, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    If you are talking graded coins you have quite a few who attend coin shows and spend way more then face value. It has even come down to what it is encapsulated in, like what label is used and how limited it is.

     

    That is when I can make a profit on the collectibles I sell immediately. It is like a car salesperson.( used salesperson not to annoy BSF), ONCE it leaves the building it is usually worth less then what you paid for it.

     

    Very few know the real valuable coins and I am not one of them. I did collect and still do as a hobby. Never expecting to make a profit. Just like collecting them. My vice.. But if I stumble onto something by mistake then I sell..

     

    Plus I have learned what you can buy directly from the Mint a limited edition you can flip for a profit. I try to do that occasionally and have been lucky so far !
    16 Jan, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Doug

     

    that is why I said WOW , and left it at that...
    16 Jan, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Y'all are talking about 'collectibles', not PM's...

     

    I used to sell on eBay... Mainly collectibles. I once sold a Lucille Ball pencil holder for over $400.00. Not all pencil holders would sell for the same price.

     

    Let's not confuse the value of precious metals with the value of 'collectibles'.
    16 Jan, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    But did you know a PM can turn out to be a collectible once the Mint stops production early?

     

    COINS will explain after he rips a few customers off tonight !

     

    Sorry if I confuse you. I will type slower !!
    16 Jan, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I just wanted to point out that you seem to be bullish on 'collectibles', not bullish on precious metals.

     

    People seem to co-mingle the two often, much like Indianamark did.
    16 Jan, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    John, good question. Not watching any of the news channels for the last year. I did see though on the Fox Business channel an ad for one of them.

     

    Many are now creating their own coins and getting them approved for IRA's. Hmmm....maybe I should do that. I can charge so much more! (NOT gunna do it)...

     

    True about the sign holders lol...they'll be back!
    16 Jan, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    Yeah, probably signs that say "Buy our gold! PLEASE!" ;)
    16 Jan, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Not bullish on collectibles at all...That is a possible bubble like comic books. Who knows..

     

    But I do like a few PM'S as well..

     

    You gotta look at COINS on stage above. We have a star here folks (sorry BSF, not you).
    16 Jan, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    IRA's using PM's ? Not a good idea . The old adage is still true,if you go to bed with the govt. ,you will wake up with a prostitute.
    17 Jan, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    CoinsK...interesting comment. I look at it another way. The only way you can go get true wealth from your IRA is to drive to the facility that is holding your gold and pick it up in person. That way you control it, not the government (if we were to sink to that level).

     

    You'll of course have to pay the 20% tax, current income tax and a 10% penalty if withdrawn before 59 1/2, but any wealth you control is yours, not some government (and no, I don't try and get people to invest in an IRA because of this minute possibility).

     

    Cheers!
    17 Jan, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Doug I see your point and I participated in a PM IRA back in the 90's before the general public even knew they existed .My point for these type of "retirement" investments is I have recently changed my thinking with the advent of ObamaSocialism running rampant. The guy says he will sign whatever he wants into law with or without congress. That is the issue. How much will those IRA's and 401k's get Taxed at some time in the future. It's a real consideration that we had better start planning for.They change the Tax code on a whim and we have no opposition to represent us and protect us from their extreme Marxist's views. Sickening.
    17 Jan, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » COINS

     

    You really need to write a book !!
    17 Jan, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    True coins. And that is in my book. We have already seen the long arm of the IRS reach into our pockets and take 20% from the top anytime someone wants to exit their 401k. This can go higher quite easily to stop any type of fear move out. They can also nationalize IRA's if they wanted to.
    17 Jan, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    You can't eat and drink and have shelter and keep warm with metal's
    invest in the former and let them pay the bill,Governance Corporance & IT
    18 Jan, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    But if they had silver for sale you will pick up a couple correct:)
    16 Jan, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Electro Dollas 24/7/365 regulated & under Janet's protective eyes would best,in volume.
    16 Jan, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    If the price is right, and I think there's an opportunity to turn a profit... I traded in Beanie Babies for a time in the past - make a buck where a buck can be made.

     

    But that's all silver, gold, stocks, Beanie Babies, LB pencil holders, etc., etc. are to me - ways to make a buck.

     

    The quicker the turnover, the better, as far as I'm concerned.
    16 Jan, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    That's why Google bought those 100,000 millions in treasuries(Nest)
    their sense of macro economics got them far,now turnover & speed is a given.
    Massive pseudo monopolies that have their own place at the table in the heights of Gov. are for you volume investor and speed of turnover is in magnitudes.
    16 Jan, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning Team IT,just watching the future's on my part of the port folio gleaning every little conniving detail,producers are beyond ruthless,some of these retailers hey we all got to eat and stay warm.
    17 Jan, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile while people are wasting their money ,instead of buying Precious metals we have this situation growing like a deadly cancer in our ,govt. ,economy ,and personal lives.
    This is from an actual correspondence :
    OBAMACARE A comment posted on the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare

     

    "I actually made it through this morning at 8:00 AM. I have a preexisting
    condition (Type 1 Diabetes) and my income base was 45K-55K annually. I chose tier 2 "Silver Plan" and my monthly premiums came out to $597.00 with $13,988 yearly deductible!!! There is NO POSSIBLE way that I can afford this so I "opt-out" and chose to continue along with no insurance. I received an email tonight at 5:00 P.M. Informing me that my fine would be $4,037 and could be attached to my yearly income tax return. Then you make it to the
    "REPERCUSSIONS PORTION" for "non-payment" of yearly fine. First, your drivers license will be suspended until paid, and if you go 24 consecutive months with "Non-Payment" and you happen to be a home owner, you will have a federal tax lien placed on your home. You can agree to give your bank information so that they can easy "Automatically withdraw" your "penalties" weekly, bi-weekly or monthly! This by no means is "Free" or even "Affordable."

     

    To the Obama supporters :
    THE MORE SOME PEOPLE GET WHAT THEY WANT,THE LESS THEY WILL WANT WHAT THEY GET.
    17 Jan, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    "people are wasting their money instead of buying PM's "

     

    HMM , what an interesting comment and strategy ..

     

    but, that really sounds like a snake oil carnival crier ,, err , I mean PM salesman.. yes ,,lets all buy this magic elixir ... and not waste our money .......

     

    May everyone enjoy their day ....
    17 Jan, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    CoinsK,

     

    I am not an Obama fan, nor was a Bush fan, but I have in the past been in the insurance business. I have to point out some flaws in your analysis above that you pasted from somewhere.

     

    First off there is no age of the person you are discussing, so I used the age of 60. I put in $50,000 as income (there is no range but the website uses exact income).

     

    Based on that income and age, the premium came to $497 for the Silver plan. What is not explained in what you posted is the 60 year old is only responsible for 30% of that $497 or $149.10 a month.

     

    The deductible is actually $4,500 and the maximum out of pocket is $6,350.

     

    In 2014, the penalty will be 1 percent of annual income or $95 for each family member that does not have insurance, whichever is greater (this means that if your household income is $45,000, the penalty would be $450). The penalty will increase in future years.

     

    Just thought I would shed some light on this controversial subject.

     

    My take is that there will be so many uninsured who overwhelm the system in the beginning that service will deteriorate. You can bet of the few million who have signed up already, many were low income and uninsured because they couldn't get insurance elsewhere. Before my 3rd book comes out, which will include a more thorough analysis by interviewing doctors and hospitals, I will know if this is the actual case or not.

     

    We all know that anything the government guarantees will have the prices move higher. Some states have laws that cap what insurers can charge. Some do not and can raise premiums all they want (nothing really changed with them price wise). So if insurers have to pay more to hospitals because of this rush of the unhealthy to get services, it may cause premiums to shoot higher in those states that allow it. Simple math to me. Not sure if I will like the outcome of my research.
    17 Jan, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    You don't get it Steve. Pay the government or pay yourself. That's the choice. FA's are going along to get along with the "Snake Oil Salesman" in the White House.Do you offer a free jar of Vaseline to your clients yet?
    17 Jan, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Diabetes Doug ,you can't figure it like youand I used to when we sold Insurance in what used to be a Free market. Think about what is really happening here. OH and the "penalty" WILL be what they tell you it is once they get you hooked. Not going to $95 This is a monstrosity.
    17 Jan, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Steve I haven't offered to sell one thing here.Write your stupid accusation down on a piece of paper and blow your nose on it !
    17 Jan, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
     
    Not going to BE $95 .
    17 Jan, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » COINS

     

    I thought the fines were more like year one $100, year two $300, year three $700 . PLUS the IRS had no way to enforce this according to the Supreme court?

     

    I have read many articles stating this. So am I wrong ??
    17 Jan, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOUG

     

    So if my daughter makes $20k what will be her penalty? She is single..$200 ??
    17 Jan, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Coins

     

    That's what i expected --- hmmm passive aggressive

     

    doesn't feel good when the shoe is on the other foot does it ....

     

    :)
    17 Jan, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IT, if your daughter make $20k, her premium is $78 a month in what would normally be $270 a month but she can get a different plan than silver for as low as $15 a month (using California zipcode). I imagine it is less most everywhere else.

     

    Her penalty for not having the coverage is $200 if she makes $20,000 the 1st year, $400 the next and $600 the following.

     

    It would cost her $180 to have coverage the first year with their lowest cost plan (again using the California zipcode).
    17 Jan, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOUG

     

    Thanks !!
    17 Jan, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    I have Diabetes in my family and take care of business just out of pocket has been 28,000 some years and that's why i paid for the adapto genetic therapy that fda drags their feet on i have out of pocket below 5 now.

     

    Betwee Health care ins & tx's,nightmare i just hope i don't get taken to court again or dimes drop out the blue did the best i could,not done either.
    17 Jan, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Oh well. Picked up more (OXLC) O shares today. Not often I get to max out a position in a month, but I'm not complaining. Average cost was $2 under par and my yield at where I bought it will be 8% until it's redeemed or hopefully get to sell it around par value.

     

    Really wanted to buy more (NRF) D shares, but the price has come up a lot over the last month.

     

    Secret backup option was going to be more (LCM), but it goes-ex-div before I get my next investment paycheck. A quick and dirty look indicates the fund's about 80% convertibles which should be nice when interest rates go up. Nav's started to go up since the last distribution cut in 2012 (I think that's when it was from a quick look at the chart. 14% discount to NAV.

     

    Actually, I took a break in typing this to sell some CHW to purchase some more of this. Now I will get that next distribution.
    17 Jan, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Nice performance on (NUGT)
    17 Jan, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AL

     

    I am waiting for BSF to acknowledge that massive rise in my portfolio.. Not to mention Windwood took over the lead is less then 24 hours !!

     

    Me thinks she is gonna stay quiet today after stating how bad my portfolio is and how I proved having all your money invested in one place is a really bad move.

     

    AND I am not cranky BSF!!
    17 Jan, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    That's why i dropped those miner stocks above the Gold bugs liked the charts,the Lyme's kicked in so i'm wobbly,figure go Harness anyway.
    17 Jan, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Boy, the silence is killing my fingers !!!

     

    NO ONE has anything to say ?? I guess were on weekend mode ..

     

    SOOOOO...It is football talk.. Some haven't given their picks yet ..
    17 Jan, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    I got Gas problems.
    17 Jan, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Beano. Or, if you want to trade your problems, Gas-X (NVS).
    17 Jan, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AL

     

    I guess you ate my wifes cooking then??
    17 Jan, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    I mean the Portfolio.
    17 Jan, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Seattle/Denver...Potbo...
    18 Jan, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    I am with you !! Home teams ...
    18 Jan, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I got one better.. I guess my JETS will be drafting a tight end this year.. Sports guys have to read this one...I have to say it is graphic..

     

    http://bit.ly/1fGRikW
    17 Jan, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Excellent, excellent rant, I mean article, from Casey Research, by Dan Steinhart & Doug French, on ObamaCare, running for the exits and Gold confiscation.

     

    Good history lesson included too on John Law and the Mississippi Co.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fGUZak

     

    Great weekend reading.

     

    (SAND) up 23% in 4 weeks
    17 Jan, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    You might want to add this to your weekend reading list !

     

    LIBOR AND PRECIOUS METALS MANIPULATION..by Bloomberg.com

     

    http://bloom.bg/1hyJPSm

     

    Maybe this is why gold has spiked recently ??
    17 Jan, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Looks like good intel. I will brief myself.

     

    Appears to confirm what was should be obvious and yet will still be denied by those who don't like gold and like money manipulation.

     

    Thanks
    17 Jan, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am no gold bug, but I really don't like what I am reading ...Maybe someone can put this article into context..?

     

    Can it be a bad source ? Or are things starting to come out into the open about rates and currency and the metals ?
    18 Jan, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IT, not a bad source: http://reut.rs/Kne56u

     

    I'm doing research on it now. One of my German contacts is Axel Merk from Merk funds. I'll let you know (probably by article) once I finish my due diligence on it.

     

    I'm sure it makes many gold bugs feel good, but it doesn't mean the price of gold will shoot straight up I don't think either. But so far January has been good to gold. But ironically the retail market (outside of gold dealers buying silver eagles) has been terrible this month according to me and my suppliers who said business is down. They actually called me for the first time and told me about reduction in premiums!

     

    This leads me to believe we may still see a drop after this run up, but I have to dig deeper on this because as the article states, "Deutsche is the world’s largest foreign-exchange dealer" and Berenberg Bank is saying to short them.
    18 Jan, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Doug

     

    Axel is pretty good on interviews I have seen on FBN'S.. Pretty sharp guy !

     

    Would be interested in his point of view..
    18 Jan, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget the effects of the California drought.
    18 Jan, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AL

     

    Can you expand on that thought ?
    18 Jan, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    90 % of food and pipeline will probably have to be built to compensate the shortage i think from Sierras,we have prob's ! i'll get more.
    Here we go utility diversified.
    18 Jan, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    IT and Doug

     

    From your article like IT:
    "Regulators are examining how traders, who communicated in instant-message groups, exchanged information on client orders and agreed how to trade at the time of the fix,"

     

    It seems they will investigate the "traders" and punish individual traders, and then fine the bank - a hand slap. They won't go after big fish. But this may damage their price fixing ability: It may be shifting to the East.
    18 Jan, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Good crew especially the 17 18 19 %'er's .Alpha has good judgement.
    (OTC:NEST)
    17 Jan, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    How about this?

     

    Senate easily passes $1.1 trillion spending bill. 1/16/13

     

    (I read that and wondered "is that like a baseball player's contract that pays out over 5 years? - are they talking about several years??)

     

    No, its for just the rest of this year -- and by "the rest of the year," they mean SEPTEMBER.

     

    A $1.1 trillion compromise spending bill that funds the government through September won approval. CNN

     

    We're screweled. There is now no pretense of trying to hold spending down. No intention of reducing the debt. Let it compound.

     

    BSF: Govt practices your DGI in reverse.

     

    The spiral tightens and picks up speed as the water circles into the throat of the toilet.
    17 Jan, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Let me preface my comment by stating that I am not a supporter of the present administration, congress , et al. To the contrary I have stated many times that the DC crowd is an anchor on our economy . The Dow would be 20,000 right now if a common sense approach rather than a politically motivated one was in place..

     

    Now here is a link to a chart that shows Gov spending since 2009 ..
    in summary spending in '09 was 3517 B in '13 it was 3454 B.

     

    http://bit.ly/1az1GGT

     

    So spending has been Flat since the recovery started , thus the shrinkage in the budget deficit a fact I have mentioned from time to time that no one predicted.. The budget deficit has plunged from a high of 10% of GDP to 3.3% of GDP..

     

    So I'm with all of you that want to slam the politicos and policies ,

     

    However the economy rolls on in spite of Washington... and from an INVESTMENT standpoint Optimism as a default setting is the only way to successfully fund your portfolio and retirement savings over the long haul. Pessimism is intellectually seductive and the arguments always sound smarter, especially when they dovetail with our own worries. But that approach has failed over & over.

     

    We certainly can't ignore what is going on around us , BUT when one lets Politics enter into their investment's they are IMO, doomed.. I believe the last 5 years have demonstrated that quite well. 
    18 Jan, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    From:
    SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS. OMB

     

    Year Deficit in millions of dollars
    2008 -458,553
    2009 -1,412,688
    2010 -1,294,373
    2011 -1,299,593
    2012 -1,086,963
    2013 -972,902
    2014 (est) -744,189 (This will now be $1.1 trillion)

     

    The 2014 estimate has just been blown out of the water by the $1.1 trillion spending bill just passed. When the deficit decreased in 2013 it was only decreasing marginally.

     

    No one is talking about the deficit percent increase, but:

     

    $1.1 trln (now) is 48% larger than $744 bln (2013 deficit).

     

    Okay, I know you are nimble and will be able to shift into your "Fear" mode and lock in profits, but I am looking at a longer term trend, with the consequences of the LT trend taking on more of a short term horizon every month,

     

    This seems like a tipping point moment to me. They are not able to go back now. This spending bill is like an admission that there is no fix for the problem.

     

    Will the voters demand sane government? No, because the tipping point has been reached, 50% + are demanding this type of government.

     

    Sure, ride your trends and profit for as long as you can.

     

    The John Law article above from Casey research is relevant
    18 Jan, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    JW,
    is the link i provided about SPENDING not factual ?

     

    Is the current deficit not 3.3% of GDP.. ??

     

    If one looked at the trend back in '09 they would have never in their wildest dreams expected the budget to shrink like this.. So why should we get in the bunker now for something that may never work out the way your LT forecast may show.. many said we were doomed because of these types of deficits back then ('09-10) , yet we are here and the market is at new highs. Now the same folks want to profess the same rhetoric,, i ask the same question over & over WHY should we believe them now ?? Because IF i believed in that story back then ,, Well I would have been left for dead.... and that is a fact that the naysayers simply can't defend..

     

    And so i repeat the same question why should I believe them now ??? Give me a reason to follow those that have simply had it wrong over & over &over. ..

     

    so far what has been preached by the naysayers is pure nonsense,,
    It's born of absurd notions that simply haven't come to pass.

     

    U say ride the profit trends as long as u can as if to say I am doomed when this cycle stops -- another absurd assumption

     

    The naysayers don't seem to understand how it works. Who cares what happens next time? and when "next time " may come ..

     

    Savvy investors, who make a lot on the major upswings, don't give it all back on the declines. They adjust. Deploy risk management, rendering them with profits in every "up" cycle. Hence their wealth increases gradually over time. Most believe, and accept that there will be another serious decline, but they'll adjust accordingly, as it arrives, not proclaim the end of the world . And with that, allocation of assets are deployed as to what the environment dictates at that time.

     

    The cycles play out time & time again ..

     

    So i repeat again why should i follow any of that advice now .. ??
    Please produce a reason given the facts i presented..
    18 Jan, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Fear

     

    When you refer to the deficit shrinking you are speaking in terms of it as a percentage of GDP. But the deficit and spending is NOT shrinking in nominal or absolute terms. It is holding at or above $1 trln per year.

     

    Where does that leave us if GDP fails to go up?

     

    The markets are underpinned by the economic environment created by the government and the Fed. This environment cannot be sustained indefinitely and it is to a large extent artificial. Your argument is that the markets must go up forever, with just tolerable 8 to 10% corrections along the way.

     

    You can believe it (danger of decline) because it has happened before more than once, 1987, 2000, 2007 - almost in cycles of 14 and 7 years and these were deep declines and they were not expected.

     

    There is absolutely nothing wrong with questioning the possibility of a possible future decline of major proportions. I am looking at possibilities. What I wrote was not advice, but more of a caution.

     

    The BOB BRINKER types cannot have it both ways with the "Don't fight the Fed" slogan, and then turn and say that the government excesses had nothing to do with the rise of the stock market.
    18 Jan, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    JW,
    I don't think i ever said that I only expect "tolerable" 8-10% corrections along the way .. In fact in this commentary i mention that I believe we have the "possibility" of seeing the S & P revisit the1560 range or some 15%- 20% from these levels, this year ---before we hit new highs..
    http://bit.ly/1lHa1u0

     

    Now let me share this as part of my thought process -- as sure as i am writing this there will be another "bear" market. Investors who are in the market to build wealth over time are aware of this and simply do not "fear" it. That is part of the market 'cycles" I mentioned..

     

    I appreciate the cautionary commentary , however as i noted earlier, these "warnings" seem to me to be the same caution, Wall of Worry songs that have been trumpeted since 2010 . Once again IF an investor modeled his holdings with that as his or her strategy back then , they have been left for dead.. The bottom line numbers don't lie.. i see it every day , those that stayed the course and those that didn't. it's night and day .. and quite frankly that is one thing that does disturb me , how many are now out in the cold.. and still crying about what MIGHT happen ... and how they can't get back into the market..

     

    There are so many things that can change that can blow out the most negative dire forecast that simply can't be seen now.. As mentioned did anyone see the budget deficit shrinking as it has back in '09-10 ?? Of course the "many things" that can't be seen today can most assuredly blow out the most bullish forecasts.. That's part of the investment game ...

     

    And with that backdrop I have to once again say -- The naysayers weren't correct then , why do i need to listen to them now.. THE MARKET will tell us all when the change will take place and since it is " forward looking" there will in fact be time to make adjustments to protect and manage total risk..

     

    The so called illusion and as you said "artificial" underpinnings of this market have had a tremendous "wealth effect " for not only the wealthy , BUT the average Joe baby boomer that worked 35 yrs, who NOW has a retirement fund that he/she can count on.. .. IF they stayed the course ..Sadly for those that didn't its a completely different picture and it isn't pretty .. I see it ,, Its fact..

     

    I take no pleasure or do any chest bumping from making that statement -- but i see it and it is simply fact.. & frankly it is something that is disturbing to me.

     

    Believe what u wish about the 'artificial " nature of the market . I also have to chuckle as i hear that cry from the same folks that believe in Gold. Now talk about "artificial" !! It's price at the highs was probably the biggest bubble we have seen since the 2000 tech bubble .

     

    I said earlier I'm not perma anything... I along with many others "play" the cards the economic environment dictates and gives us..

     

    It just so happens I have taken the secular bull market road ,so far so good , If that gives me the title of "perma bull", so be it , IF & when the investment scene changes I will attempt to make the proper adjustments ..Hopefully I will be successful ..

     

    For the record, I don't profess now or in the past to throw caution to the wind. Quite the contrary, my blog is littered with cautionary advice of booking profits and other risk management actions along the way to these levels ..That's why i spend the time to put my thoughts down in writing as a record, good or bad...
    It's there to be reviewed from time to time and be questioned ..

     

    One can question and portend the possibilities of future massive declines as cautionary tales , the question I have is how does it help a person's bottom line -- TODAY...?? because going to cash and hiding in a bunker in -09-'10 when the cautionary tales were at their loudest -- DIDN'T work.. 
    19 Jan, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Fear:

     

    Enough said, but for the budget deficit numbers, I am going to go with the numbers for what they are actually spending that I posted above - like the $1.1 trillion, not what it is as a percentage of GDP.
    19 Jan, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    This is a true story that I lived through.. I owned an Employment agency from the 70's until my car accident. My clients were the back office jobs for the banks and brokerage firms.

     

    I can tell you that 6 months BEFORE any correction in the markets they always would have a hiring freeze. EVERYTIME !! I had a person, now retired, who would simply say play the market as you see it . You have your warning sign. He was one of the managers I dealt with daily.

     

    So although the markets , we are told , look 6 months in advance, I had proof that the brokerage companies had even more knowledge then those 6 months. They were a year out! So you can say some should stay the course, yup , the markets did come back this time.

     

    But I have living proof that some are way ahead of everyone in what is going to happen. Now if only I still had that contact. I shorted the market through family. Had no clue how but just handed over money once the freeze went into effect and said I am positive that within six months the markets are going to correct.

     

    Worked everytime. So you can keep your charts, that is why I tell most they are just good for toilet paper. You have some really really nasty insiders who know what is coming down the road..

     

    Knocking gold, we get it . You think it s a waste of money. I would not put much of my money into it. But I will tell you that if you don't think it has any value to a portfolio, then you can take my chain that I bought for less then a few hundred dollars 20 years ago from the jewelry center in NYC and buy quite a lot with it today..

     

    That is the point some of us are trying to make. You seem to just ignore this point. No end of the world, and certainly gold isn't dead. Hasn't been since I have been on this earth..

     

    That statement just makes no sense. Was the DOW dead for 10 lost years ? Did it take stock holders 5 years to finally break even since 2009 ? So why are the metals any different? You don't want to buy at these prices and I agree They are high. But to say I made a mistake 20 years ago buying some bullion, looking for those pre 64 coins and putting them away, is pure non sense.

     

    I can buy a car today if I choose to for pennies on the dollar from what I accumulated. But as I stated most of the owners of PM do it for another reason. You just don't seem to understand it .

     

    Today, all I read are people like Avi who lay out 4 different options as to what might happen. Once one does he yells "I NAILED IT".
    Personally i don't understand all this wave stuff, and he has been wrong too many times for me to PAY for his advice.. Sooner or later one of his predictions has to come through.

     

    Time will tell, and I am not out of the markets completely. I own (PSEC) MOSTLY as of now and will take that dividend every day of the week.. Otherwise I am more comfortable owning mutual fund indexes that beat managed funds almost every year ,,

     

    For those who do beat the indexes regularly good for you !
    19 Jan, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    John & Fear,
    Difficult material and well done.

     

    At this point an expanding budget would be welcome if not for the astronomical numbers on the debt and the continuing borrowing on top of interest compounded.

     

    The urgency is that we do not let deficit & debt destroy confidence and how does this correlate to the corporate sector a big part of the solution is their.
    19 Jan, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    IT,
    If you can handle any big ticket emergency on your own dime while still generating growth,stability and income,your their,gold and silver is not a bad next step !
    19 Jan, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    IT,'

     

    That's fine but when i read statements that the "last song" hasn't been played yet and al of the other innuendos' about the coming financial disasters i interpret that as being the "end of the world".. the financial one at least ..

     

    So yes i may not "understand " the gold mantra..

     

    All i have attempted to do is bring an understanding of the equity side -- and enduring the 'we are going to lose it all" mentality.. because of an imagined or perceived risk..

     

    For those that have PM profits -- good for you !!
    19 Jan, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Too. Many. Books. ;)
    19 Jan, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    I know that some out there believe the end is coming !! They invest in the metals for way different reasons that I did..

     

    I had a friend that was an Advisor, like yourself, and he convinced me to buy some PM'S many years ago,. He has passed away but I am glad I did.

     

    It lead me into being a collector and paying that premium that Doug always says to avoid. But my vice is just to buy a few coins a year now..

     

    Obviously owning stocks long term is the way to go. I also was a value investor believing in owning stocks out of favor. However I bought them using mutual funds years ago.. Now a divorce and an accident has me basically starting over at a much older time then I had planned. Being close to 60 is a concern if I invest incorrectly.

     

    That is why I started this blog.. I cashed out about a year ago, afraid of a huge correction. But I do still keep a small portfolio and plan on opening up new positions for use in about 10 years.

     

    WE have spoken privately so you understand my financial position. I also agree that people investing half of their money in PM'S are most likely making a mistake..

     

    But all of us are different. I even pull out my collectibles at family gatherings and show the nieces and nephews.. Good conversation pieces. But the PM'S are something if not needed, are just passed down to my daughter.

     

    Morgan, peace, and other 100 year old coins are cool to look at :)

     

    Now that I just picked the two winners today TACK , where is my KUDOS ??

     

    Like I said I make comments to generate a conversation..
    19 Jan, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Good work.

     

    I was 4-0 last week and 0-2 this week. I guess that was a football "correction." :-)
    19 Jan, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    3-1, 2-0.....I really think Peyton will win it all. Seattle QB doesn't impress me much, plus he really has no receivers. They have a tough defense though.

     

    Surprised game was a pick-em..Now I hear it is a 3 point Denver fav. I told my wife I expected it to open as Denver being 3.5 to 4 points!!

     

    Wife is a big Peyton fan, plus loves horses as I do...So I am sure you know how this family will be rooting ..

     

    Still a JETS fan !!
    19 Jan, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but they cut expenses out of the annual budget!

     

    http://bit.ly/PDPkys

     

    (I just love that one John...probably one of my favorites of all time....makes it so relevant for the average Joe/Jill to understand, and that was $3 trillion ago! - I laugh every single time I watch it and I have watched it many times!)
    18 Jan, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How about this ? Comments ?

     

    Many have predicted the demise of the China boom and were early, says Felix Zulauf at the Barron's Roundtable, but now it's more obvious "it's in a terminal stage." He's playing it by shorting the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH). The Hong Kong banking system is heavily exposed to mainland China, so when China goes, there could be a banking crisis in Hong Kong. The HK$ is pegged to the greenback, so the HKMA will defend it by hiking rates, smacking the heavily rate-sensitive economy there.

     

    It's been nearly a decade since Zulauf recommended gold miners, but now's the time the buy the GDX, he says. Gold (GLD) is "washed out ... those who wanted to sell gold have sold it ... Western investors, asset-allocators, ETF players have all sold their gold. The buyers? "Physical gold moved from Western to Eastern hands."

     

    After 30 years of declining yields, Zulauf isn't a secular bull on U.S. Treasurys, but sees mis-pricing in government paper, noting French 10-year notes yield 50 bps less than comparable U.S. ones. The 10-year Treasury yield could easily fall 75-100 bps and he's a buyer of TLT.
    18 Jan, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    (EWH) China index, is in an uptrend , so if he is shorting that , he is trying to predict that it has topped , Many have tried to pick the "top" here in the S & P and have been carried out feet first.

     

    Gold (GDX) has shown a "possible" double bottom pattern and 'could" certainly bounce to 1300-1350. It is certainly washed out..
    18 Jan, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Since the HK dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, it doesn't have to be "defended." In essence, it's fixed. http://tinyurl.com/n4k...

     

    Despite what gold bugs wish to believe, gold is an unproductive luxury, is highly deflationary and is economically unproductive. Consequently, if any serious decline in the Chinese economy were to occur, then that huge hoard of gold --which some fantasize as the road to a reserve currency -- will suddenly look very unattractive and could easily make China gold sellers, rather than buyers, in order to convert those funds back to economically productive use.

     

    As for gold selling being "washed out," we still don't know, technically whether that's so, and won't likely have even short-term confirmation if and until GLD crosses 122 and stays there. http://tinyurl.com/a6o...

     

    Furthermore, gold is usually bought as an inflation hedge, not in deflationary conditions (except in times of panic), which is what a slowdown in China and declining U.S. rates, if such were to occur, portends. Unless the Fed would indicate a new QE effort, the outlook for gold appears guarded, at best.

     

    I do concur with Zulauf's last comment, regarding interest rates. The panicky move in U.S. rates and related yield issues in response to taper concerns has been exaggerated, providing good values across the yield asset class. Already in 2014 we have seen all of these issues handily outperform the equity indices. I suspect that this will continue for until a reversion to more appropriate rates occurs.
    18 Jan, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Are you saying that in the short run bonds can be a better investment? Add to that have you changed your opinion on deflation being a possibility ?

     

    Thanks!
    18 Jan, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    I'm saying that the overreaction to taper led to a disproportionate sell-off in bonds and related yield issues, such that they present good short- to intermediate-term opportunities for above-average yields and price appreciation, a nice combo. And, as a hedge to equities, it's nice to have that side of the portfolio produces positive gains, as well.

     

    I do not foresee deflation and am not predicting any kind of sizable economic contraction. It's just that, as often occurs, lots of the go-go equity issues got overindulged in 2013, and lots of more boring yield issues were discarded and forgotten. Now, the worm is shifting back a bit. Frankly, as a predominant high-yield value investor, this suits me just fine.
    18 Jan, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    So the BDC'S are a little safer now for investors then?
    18 Jan, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Wealthy Chinese continue to flee from China….

     

    http://cnb.cx/Ll9rqo
    18 Jan, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Very interesting article.. But this quote concerns me..

     

    "According to WealthInsight, the Chinese wealthy now have about $658 billion stashed in offshore assets. Boston Consulting Group puts the number lower, at around $450 billion, but says offshore investments are expected to double in the next three years."

     

    OFFSHORE does not mean in the USA !!
    18 Jan, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    IT, the favorite place for these wealthy Chinese to emigrate is the US. When they talk about "offshore" that means "not in China." Where they put their wealth is likely all over the world, to be diversified.

     

    Not surprising that wealthy Chinese choose to leave a country where their wealth (most of it obtained thru political patronage, what a shocker there) could be torn from their hands & they could go to prison at the whim of the communists in power.

     

    Word is they like to put their wealth in diamonds, to get it out of the country more easily.
    18 Jan, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF..

     

    I know the Chinese have been coming here for years. My point was they still won't put their money here. It is like you said ,spread around the world..

     

    I did not know it was diamonds though. Again I learn something new !!
    18 Jan, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (835) | Send Message
     
    >Since the HK dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, it doesn't have to be "defended." In essence, it's fixed. http://tinyurl.com/n4k...

     

    It does have to be defended in the sense that the central bank has to be ready to buy or sell HK$ in order to maintain that peg.
    18 Jan, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    and i thought u weren't a technician ;)

     

    I do agree with your (GLD) analysis , and we may know very quickly if GLD will in fact get over that 122 hump..

     

    Nothing surprises me anymore but i too am hard pressed to find a reason that Gold will continue to rally in the interest rate environment we are in..

     

    maybe the PM'ers are "sniffing" a hint of inflation in the air ??
    18 Jan, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Fear,
    I don't think anybody really knows,just have to be their and a step ahead when it happens.If rates go up the divide going to get wider.
    18 Jan, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Well, unable to discover a fundamental reason for gold to ascend, I was just checking to see if the gold watcher could take comfort in the charts, but, even there, it seems convincing evidence is lacking.

     

    Generally, you are correct; I don't really rely on technical subtleties, at all. However, if I see a capitulatory selling episode in a chart, with a steep drop accompanied by high volumes, then, I'll take notice and react accordingly. I consider the remainder of technical hair splitting highly dubious.
    18 Jan, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    I do use it (tech analysis) a bit more, but as a mentor once told me --charts work ,, until they don't :)
    18 Jan, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Under Janet Rates will continue to be suppressed and gold continued to be skimmed to be reinvested into the market flow.
    The best stats on the charts are those who have not fallen below purchase price from a given date.

     

    Temps are working in my favor,my timing screwed up.
    18 Jan, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Tack said; "Unless the Fed would indicate a new QE effort, the outlook for gold appears guarded, at best."

     

    Hey Tack, I don't think the Fed has a choice if the economy doesn't pick up and stay up as they expect it to. Obviously interest rates are the key as there is nothing in the budget that accounts for any outlay if we get higher rates.

     

    I do think we are in the midst of a deflationary credit contraction and this is the reason Bernanke is implementing the medicine he believes was not administered during the early years of the Great Depression.

     

    Keynes says that a some government spending is what the government needs to implement, but that it should only be "temporary." While gold might be viewed by some as "an unproductive luxury and economically unproductive," over time it does maintain its purchasing power and is good insurance for the $17.33 trillion elephant in the living room that the financial media and Congress never want to address, as well as a Fed balance sheet that is not even close to what it was before the 2008 financial crisis (and we should include in this the over $4 trillion of sub-investment grade derivatives that are coming due in the next 5 years from the nations top banks, more than at the height of the 2008 crisis).

     

    Just so you know, I do think we haven't reached bottom on gold and I still am dollar bullish.

     

    Thoughts?
    18 Jan, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    DE:

     

    I don't believe that QE at any current or reduced level is going to springboard gold because the old apprehension that QE leads to runway inflation has been busted.

     

    Bernanke's medicine was exactly the correct course to allow excess debt to be gradually written off and/or absorbed by the Fed, which doesn't suffer from the solvency or liquidity risks of the private sector. We're at or near the end of this cycle.

     

    Gold can be discussed until the cows come home and it can always be sold to some as an insurance policy, but nonetheless it remains an unproductive asset, in classical economic terms. The very holding of gold is deflationary.

     

    I' not so much dollar bullish as dollar neutral. I believe the imagined rate hikes that many tie directly to taper will not materialize unless there's a sizable pick-up in the economy. Both the economy and rates are going to be much more affected by fiscal and tax policies than by any alteration in Fed buying. I don't see this Administration igniting high growth. Because of the foregoing opinion, I can't find the catalyst for gold.
    18 Jan, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Tack, I never said that more QE would lead to runaway inflation. I said the Fed will do more QE but what most don't comprehend is the fact it's being swallowed up by the deflationary credit contraction. Bernanke's "medicine" isn't enough based on his own understanding and so he kept adding more. If this doesn't explain his battle against deflation, I don't know what does.

     

    Gold represents "real" wealth and has for centuries as non-productive as it is because it maintains purchasing power. How can you explain, like with silver for example, that a 1964 silver quarter can still buy you a gallon of gas today when exchanged for the scrip we use? Who cares if it is an unproductive asset when it maintains purchasing power over time?

     

    I agree with the last paragraph, and you can't see the catalysts for owning gold....yet.

     

    In time I think you will, but you won't buy it and that's ok.
    18 Jan, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    DE:

     

    "Who cares if it is an unproductive asset when it maintains purchasing power over time? "

     

    I have a very simple rejoinder to this comment. Nobody ever got ahead, much less rich, by having one's purchasing power maintain parity over time. Anyone adopting such a plan for retirement would literally have to save his way there, entirely, because the purchasing power of one's gold holding wouldn't be doing any of the work.

     

    That's why, as long-term holdings, investment in productive assets, e.g., equities, is so vital. One arrives years later with enhanced, not maintained, purchasing power. This is genuine wealth creation.
    18 Jan, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Again, another rebuttal that simply puts one asset class versus another. It's a tactic that we constantly see here on Seeking Alpha. I don't talk about stocks and the fact that the DOW hasn't maintained its purchasing power, but this is true when you simply look at the DOW priced in real assets, whether it be soybeans, coffee or wheat...or gold. http://bit.ly/Lmnjk8

     

    Is one rich if they are invested in the DOW when they go to sell their stocks and can't buy as much as they used to? There in lies the illusion.

     

    Gold doesn't have to "work." It doesn't change. You bury it in your back yard, dig it up in 20 years and it's still the same gold you buried, unproductive as it is. But what it buys you, now that's the "real" story.

     

    Again, I am not comparing one versus the other. I am making a case for one though. And when interest rates begin to tick up, many stocks will feel the effect because investment and consumption become less attractive while the "unproductive" one will maintain its purchasing power over time.

     

    We got a little more time though. You won't see too much damage done until we hit about 4% on the 10 year. That should be the point of no return (for what could be awhile). The Fed's job, with their current balance sheet, won't be easy moving forward. Naturally the wise investor allocates accordingly.
    18 Jan, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    DE:

     

    But, the data is incontrovertible that over decades the Dow has outperformed gold by a large margin, many hundreds of percent. So, if one cannot buy whatever in Dow terms, then it's much worse in gold. Since you claim that gold has kept up with inflation, that means equities have well exceeded it, which is what is to be expected by investment in productive assets over time.

     

    I don't understand your comment about not comparing gold and equities. All investing is about comparing one use of funds to another. History simply demonstrates that if you choose gold over equities, then over a number of decades you're almost assured of having less than the equity investor. These are simple verifiable facts.

     

    Now, if one wishes to argue that gold is like hurricane or earthquake insurance and nice to have if the world ends, then, fine, make that claim, but to suggest that it's as good or better than equities for someone trying to build real wealth --not keep up with inflation -- over an investment career, during working years, then, that's simply mistaken unless none of the future looks anything like a long history.
    18 Jan, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    The "IT FIB" charts never fail..:) I might have to make an adjustment now and then. But that is what I hear from all the charters..

     

    I said to book profits early this year and the metals will go up...Not sure how my Twitter prediction is working out though :)
    18 Jan, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    buddy buddy on the edge of the other drink,you just explained something.
    you know like special education for precious little eddy.
    18 Jan, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Month 1 of a very long year...,, S & P might go a bit higher , then have a correction that may scare many, then rebound to be higher than where we are now,,

     

    Gold,, enjoy the bounce i don't see it to be lasting by any means ...

     

    :)
    18 Jan, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't forget the little sister...silver...

     

    Might have a bigger year then gold !! It has slipped to wear the miners now seem attractive.

     

    That is according to the charts of course :) Which means anything can pop up and change them...

     

    Just can't wait for when ole Janet goes soft on the economics...These scandals might also have some teeth this time as well. We have peed off many countries with our antics ...

     

    Even Canada, that Loonie currency, is annoyed at our POTUS and even said it !! That was a major wow in my book !

     

    The "IT FIB" charts responded very negatively towards stocks once Canada spoke up..
    18 Jan, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Silver will be $12 when its all is said and done , just like southgent predicted last year -- I believe he may be right
    18 Jan, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Comex gold feb 14 1251.90
    " "Silver 20.30 mar 14
    at present.
    18 Jan, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    It,

     

    Here's some other charts to look at. Go ahead and overlay a 300 day simple average on them:

     

    http://bit.ly/1je9cMg

     

    http://bit.ly/1je9eE4

     

    http://bit.ly/1je9eE7

     

    I know which one I'm going to surf for awhile....
    18 Jan, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Tack, this can go on because you don't stick to the issue. I never brought up stocks, you did. I never argued one versus the other, you strated to. I simply addressed this and even pointed it out to you but you still want to try this tactic in arguing your point. I have taken enough law classes to understand the importance of sticking with the "issue."
    To correct your assumptions...

     

    Gold's price was fixed until 1971. The DOW has not outperformed gold by "a large margin, many hundreds of percent" but gold has outperformed the DOW since 1971. But of course if you include dividends, it comes out a little closer. Here's the math without dividends.

     

    DOW 1971 846 Gold $40.80
    DOW 2014 16,458 Gold $1,250 % Increase 1845% vs. 2963%
    Regarding comparing the two, you brought stocks into the equation and got off the issue we were discussing. I simply pointed that out. It's not about one versus the other which is what many here on Seeking Alpha try to make it. It's about diversification and asset allocation.
    I have refuted your "over decades" comment and an investment in gold hasn't hurt anyone who bought it and sure as heck isn't going to hurt anyone who buys now.
    The rest of your comments about earthquakes and end of world is again an attempt to divert from the issue we were discussing and not worthy of my response since I never have ever mentioned those in any of my writings. I never said it was better. You brought up stocks, I didn't.
    I think I'm done here. Have a good evening.
    18 Jan, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    Talking about gold since 1971 is a joke because it's price was vastly artificially suppressed by being fixed by government edict. One must compare periods from either long before that date or after price normalization, about 1975 or so.

     

    Gold is a holding that one holds in fear of economic collapse, as an insurance policy. Other than that, it looks nice on my wife's arm. It has no other productive value.

     

    I have no idea why you keep fighting the idea of stocks --or anything else, for that matter -- versus gold. Any dollar spent on one thing cannot be spent on the other, so they always compete.

     

    Let's drop it. Neither of us will influence the other.
    18 Jan, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1094) | Send Message
     
    Fear
    If you believe that, then you are predicting pretty deep deflation. It most likely wouldn't only be silver that would be down sharply- equities would not be immune.
    18 Jan, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Fine with me. History will dictate where we are a few years from now. I have more than a few examples that weigh heavily in my favor of projecting what will come.
    18 Jan, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » boy, we sure disagree on this one!

     

    Southgent had some strange posts to be honest...

     

    Silver will never see $12 bucks.. Your entitled to your opinion. I am not even going to discuss it..
    18 Jan, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » USER

     

    Surf away. I don't read charts because I don't believe in them. Chart readers always have a way to suddenly change their opinion on "something changing". That is an excuse... Good luck, but watch out for those sharks !!!

     

    Just like the guys at the track.. I have met so many chart readers it is actually funny to me. That is why I won't invest nor learn what they supposedly mean.

     

    Like FEAR said charts work until they don't..
    18 Jan, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    But he will adjust before that happens :)

     

    I believe that is what he has been saying he would do...My only question is WHEN do you decide that it is time to sell and stay out or buy as it is a buying opportunity ??

     

    Or stay invested and wait until you possibly recover??

     

    Serious question that has always concerned me.. That 10 year Dow staying flat sticks in my head, as well as 2008/9..

     

    At my age I might be alive when a huge correction comes and it takes 10 years to recover. No one can say it can't happen.. No one knows the future..

     

    These past 5 years is a speck of time, and not enough proof for me that were out of the woods yet. Yes, I might have missed the party, but the last song hasn't been sung yet.

     

    Tack stated he had a bad year last year, so it can happen to anyone !!
    18 Jan, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Time will tell if gold has bottomed yet. Comex registered gold has been pretty much depleted in 2013. (GLD) physical gold inventory is down over 40%.

     

    It will be interesting to see where the physical gold in the west will come from to settle demands from the east. It will also be interesting to watch the naked short sells, their frequency and effectiveness of these actions in 2014.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aA4NeI
    18 Jan, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    I only own a handful of PM'S. I am also relatively new to investing on my own. So I just read as much as I can to understand the pros posting here.

     

    Maybe all these articles about manipulation won't mean anything. Maybe gold going to the West won't either.
    Maybe manipulation HAS been going on for years and I had no idea
    Maybe it will never end.
    Maybe I don't have enough money if these stories have merit.

     

    I HATE investing when i am confused. I undertand TACK feels comfortable that most of what we read is just noise, i hope he is right !
    18 Jan, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    "My only question is WHEN do you decide that it is time to sell and stay out or buy as it is a buying opportunity ??"

     

    IT, IMO this depends on the individual investor and the individual investment. The question to ask is what has fundamentally changed from the time at which I entered the investment that would now cause me to exit. Your answer will determine your course of action.
    19 Jan, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    Sure, charts don't tell you everything. But I can look at them and see what the long term trend's been running for stocks vs. other assets. Things will eventually change, but I'm not seeing it yet.
    19 Jan, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Doug,,

     

    and the 'stocksters" point is that IF & WHEN your stories play out , many of us will add that 10% as insurance to enjoy a profit ..

     

    so for me , the logic says why HOLD an asset that pays no dividend for an outcome that may NEVER develop.

     

    As I have mentioned plenty of times , many (maybe not u ) that have the fascination with gold have outsized positions far greater than the 10% insurance bit , or are playing the 3x leveraged games , hence their passion for the metal..
    19 Jan, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    gold is down from 1900 to 1200 , silver is down from 48 to 19 ,,

     

    I didn't see deflation when they were dropping to these levels..
    19 Jan, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    the same folks that attacked 'southgent" then with his silver prediction also attacked his gold prediction which is now well underway ,,

     

    tell me something when silver was 48 or even 30 did u believe we we would see 19 ??

     

    The silver bubble also burst at 48 -- At the very best , it may take a decade before it gets to sniff that level,, Just as it has taken the Nasdaq 13 years to sniff the old highs

     

    Its NO different ..
    19 Jan, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    this strategy along with other indicators helped me get thru 2000 & 2009

     

    http://bit.ly/1b5zj1u

     

    and once again u seem to want to discount the profits & dividends that have been booked .... before the next downturn..

     

    your comment about the 10yr flatline of the S & P is accurate -- & it has now broken out of that range and THAT fact is precisely why it was time to get invested in equities .. And again dont discount the div, growth during that flatline period.. It kept many afloat ..

     

    your questions are serious BUT i believe they have been answered many times over.. & of course, it depends on a persons station in life. ..I hear your concerns everyday from those that say "I can't get back in " because......... and have been saying that to me since '10 ..

     

    If the horse doesn't want to drink the water that's there so be it...

     

    as for Tack -- although we have different approaches to the market -- I'll take his returns anytime..

     

    the "last song" as u put it has been sung many times over .. yet we are still here .... if that isn't enough evidence , well....

     

    Now here's a thought ----how about if the "last song" takes the S & P to 2500-3000?? That's not a prediction, (I take it one step at a time) BUT where will those people who say "i can't get back in because" be when that happens ...
    DId u believe the S & P would be at 1800 when it was at 800 , -- I think not.. ( not to mention dividend growth and appreciation along the way )

     

    My reply to many ---Give it some thought ... befor u cry "I Can't "
    19 Jan, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    F&G, holding gold for the long term has never hurt anyone. It can't ever go to zero for starters. It's a different philosophy than you personally have and that's why you don't hold it. That's cool.

     

    Not sure where you get your other data from, but if you have any proof I'm open to it. I do know one company Monex, who has an "F" rating from the BBB forces their employees to try and sell the leveraged gold and silver. This is how they make more money as a company. The reason they have the "F" rating is because people find out they lost all their money with a downturn and didn't fully understand what they invested in. I have never recommended leverage.

     

    Regarding deflation, if you haven't noticed, the Fed is fighting it to the tune of a trillion a year. This only postpones the inevitable, unless of course they do too much inflating. It's a fine line they are walking and as they are walking this fine line, their balance sheet grows weaker. If we were to repeat a financial crisis similar to 2008 again, then the Fed wouldn't have the ability to take over the toxic assets as they did before when their balance sheet consisted of 80% quality assets. Gold in 2008 finished the calendar year positive.

     

    Lastly, it's easy to play Monday morning quarterback.

     

    Enjoy the games today! Talk to you in a few years and we can revisit.

     

    Still waiting for your stuf on covered calls but I have not got to that section of my book yet. I only have about 750 pages or so to go through from the material I have collected but am saving it for the end after I complete my economic and government/Fed sections.

     

    Nice to see you would allocate some to gold at some point. It's a start! haha
    19 Jan, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Just to add a brief comment on the oft-seen refrain that those who have been long the rally are just going to lose it all in the next bear market, let's take a look at what would have to happen for that to be true:

     

    For anyone who, since 2009, was in a diversified portfolio or index fund that performed more or less as the market, they would find themselves up 176% from the bottom in March 2009, plus another 20-30% in dividends, on a compounded basis, so let's average out at 200% gains.

     

    Now, in order for them to be worse off than those, who decided to forego the "dangerous" and "unstable' markets, even if they made not a single defensive move with their portfolio, they'd have to see the markets decline 67%, just to be back at breakeven, not even losing money.

     

    That raises two additional questions: 1) what's the likelihood of another precipitous collapse in the immediate future, even greater than the last? 2) why would anyone, having made such gains, not make changes in their portfolio to protect most of them?

     

    Obviously, the overall answer is that successful investors manage both
    up and own markets, whenever they arise.
    19 Jan, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    Typo alert:

     

    "Obviously, the overall answer is that successful investors manage both
    up and DOWN markets, whenever they arise."
    19 Jan, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Of course that's true in theory Tack, but most investors don't manage their own investments and most advisors are always bullish. If you have a system that makes one successful or know of one that someone is using besides investing in the indexes, please share.

     

    Most mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers don't beat the market. Mutual fund managers did better this year than the last 10 (but still didn't beat the index) and hedge fund managers plainly sucked this year. I have to wonder if many of the old mutual fund managers that sucked in the past actually went to go work at hedge funds for the higher payout and brought their lousy track record with them!
    19 Jan, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Tack,,
    well said, a 200% gain is what i have seen in many accounts . As an independent ,i only handle a select few as my sample.. However i hear the same from counterparts that are still at large firms..

     

    Now as I have tried to show with my commentary, those that did employ a defensive strategy and were proactive are literally light years ahead of those that decided they couldn't get back in... So much so, that it is a "game changer " for them, at a time in their life that is most important.. (a boomer - retired or getting ready to retire.)

     

    What i try to impress with commentary , is that this 'illusion " has been in fact a "life changing" event. Sadly for those that didn't see what was happening, they are now in a very difficult place.. Again I refer to the typical baby boomer when i make these comments..

     

    Anyone younger that didn't participate needs to buy some books, get educated on the markets and get better advice for starters.. ..
    19 Jan, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    DE:

     

    Well, over an extended period, one doesn't even need a "system." Markets trend higher perpetually over time, if for no other reason than all values in life are nominal values, and currencies get inflated faster than goods and services. Of course, there are up and down periods, but the trend line is rather obvious. So, index investing does work, over enough time.

     

    Now, one can do better than that generalized average if one can do even better in the up cycles and/or avoid as many losses in the down cycles. From experience, I'd say this is learned behavior and common sense, more than a "system." Be weighted toward equities in up cycles, and be weighted toward yield instruments in down cycles. But, don't go to cash because cash produces nothing, and market timing is an inexact science. Over the long haul, it's always better to be invested than not invested.

     

    Different investors can develop differing methodologies to address market cycles. it really doesn't even have to be complicated or requiring experts. It can be done entirely with mutual or index funds. There's no need to pay usurious fees to professionals, whose compensation is more dependent on asset balances than performance.

     

    Personally, I favor a contrarian investment style, always looking for out-of-favor issues and sectors and limiting my selections to issues with substantial yields. The strategy depends on gradual cyclical rotation and harvesting above-average dividends while awaiting that rotation, the timing of which cannot be predicted. That's why the yield is so important; one gets paid to wait. As undervalued issues revert upward, and yields drops, I rotate the funds into new candidates.

     

    I can attest that this strategy has served me very well over the last 20 years, easily exceeding the market average.
    19 Jan, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Tack said; "There's no need to pay usurious fees to professionals, whose compensation is more dependent on asset balances than performance."

     

    There's one we agree on. One of my subsection titles is; "Are Financial Advisor’s Needed?"

     

    Appreciate your thoughts. Agree with you on dividend paying stocks as well.

     

    Do you use the strategies that F&G recommends with covered calls, etc.?
    19 Jan, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    Your comment :
    If we were to repeat a financial crisis similar to 2008 again, then the Fed wouldn't have the ability to take over the toxic assets as they did before when their balance sheet consisted of 80% quality assets.

     

    That is a HUGE IF.. For starters hasn't the landscape changed ?

     

    Of course anything can happen, its a "possibility" ,, but what are the "probabilities" of another fiscal crisis.

     

    And once again I'm just not sure of what part of a defensive strategy I & and others refer to that some,just don't get " IF " there should be another "crisis" ..

     

    I keep asking why do i need to go into the bunker now ?
    Because of the "next" financial crisis ?

     

    What good would it have done IF i went into that bunker in 2009- 2010... Here is the answer ,backed up by all of the historical facts .... sadly i would have joined the folks that are now in a very difficult place----- I'm buried alive .... & I may not have time to dig out...

     

    OR Is it the notion that some think they want to protect every dollar... ?? ALL investments come with risk , managing those risks over the long haul builds wealth in the long run .. Period..

     

    Hiding in a bunker does not , especially if it's because of a "PERCEIVED " risk and more so if i take a non income producing PM and sit it beside me ...

     

    I respect your thoughts , and we have debated this over & over, your train of thought is great to read in a book , it sounds compelling , it goes to the heart of everyone's "fear" quotient. words like 'crisis" , risk, 'default" and the like are great "reads"

     

    However in real life it just isn't the way to approach investing..

     

    Hope u have success with the book ....
    19 Jan, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12771) | Send Message
     
    DE:

     

    I don't like to utilize covered calls on any dividend-oriented stock I wish to maintain in my portfolio for a couple reasons: 1) because American options can be exercised at any time, if the shares rise above the strike they will be called way prior to the ex-dividend date, depriving the holder of both the additional capital gain and the dividend; 2) one never knows when an issue may gap up on news, as did NRF recently, where the large price move would have been sacrificed for a few extra pennies of premium income on the call sale.

     

    A strategy I like to employ, instead, when I might wish to add shares to an existing position or form a new position, but only at a lower price, is to sell out-of-money puts. Then, I collect the premium income, and if shares decline to or below my strike, I get to add the shares at the lower price, still keeping the premium income.

     

    In essence, I buy undervalued issues that I expect will rise, so I don't want to sell calls, a bearish strategy, and risk capping gains. I'd rather sell puts and get paid to add shares at a discount.
    19 Jan, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    OOps i forgot

     

    I will get you the covered call info that i mentioned.. I have a portfolio here in my blog (it is a "real" portfolio) that has great examples and I will compile and send that to you as a starter..
    19 Jan, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Fear, I think the main difference between you and I is how we interpret the data we view. I don't need to use fear to induce book sales and I actually criticize those who try this tactic in my book (on a side note, I also address the other side of your name, "greed.")

     

    I try to set myself apart from them with the data and let the data dictate investment philosophy but I can't ignore price action and that has been a past mistake of mine. If I make my case with the data then I simply maintain that if one believes the data as prima facie, then they may want to get some insurance. People insure their home and auto with the full knowledge that it is really a waste of money each year, but they still do it "just in case" that Black Swan event comes. If it doesn't come, then unlike the auto and home insurance, their is still some value in the portfolio/currency insurance. But even the data can be confusing which is why I also look for alternative data analysts for truth.

     

    Asset allocation allows one to take advantage of market swings up, for sure, but at the same time, their needs to be some sort of downward protection, not just with gold but with some money management strategies. In the beginning of 2008, no one had these strategies in place but everyone could feel the sentiment change. I'm sure you would agree with that.

     

    I think 2008 was a good lesson moving forward and in reality, the only reason we're not worse off than where I think we really should be is from QE and unprecedented government spending. I would imagine Keynes is even rolling over in his grave along with the Founding Fathers.

     

    This is where the economics comes into play and the main thesis of why I believe what I believe. No one can argue the economics with me. Not even the Austrians who are so dollar negative and bullish on gold the last few years. This is what I feel was missing when I was a financial advisor in that I didn't have a full grasp of why economists say what they say and do what they do. I do now.

     

    You admit that anything can happen and that it is a possibility. I'm not claiming everyone dives into the bunker. Far from it. In fact, I am promoting George Gilder's philosophy in Knowledge and Power, but you won't find most of my political/government solutions come out until my 3rd book. I actually do have a goal of putting myself out of business (but I know the odds are stacked heavily against me).

     

    Thanks for your wishes and despite the back and forth you, Krusty, Tack, and others have with me, I do it on purpose to get to the other side of ignorance to make my book that much better. I have to do this to understand that for which I do not know, the definition of ignorance.
    19 Jan, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tack and F&G...

     

    Enjoy your day. I'm back to writing...
    19 Jan, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FEAR

     

    So explain to me so that I understand what has to happen for you to buy a little gold or silver ?

     

    Then I might ask a follow up question. I just want to see that if you decide it's time are you too late to the party? Should you have had a drink of that water years prior?

     

    Serious question and I am sure you would be happy with TACKS returns. Does that mean you are nowhere near them.. Did I understand that comment correctly?

     

    You still say we have a major correction coming so why should one start investing now ? That is a question from a PM.. I am not wise enough to answer that . I guess the person is young and says why not just wait until things are cheaper?? Good question I think ..

     

    REMEMBER , I try to moderate here... Getting ready to count how many times Peyton yells OMAHA !! Enjoy the games all us sports junkies..

     

    Thanks!
    19 Jan, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    In a PM months ago to me you advised me to maybe just stay invested in Mutual funds and go play golf.. I agree with you because I am light years behind learning on my own. I know IT WOULD COST ME money doing it alone. But I can't golf ...lol

     

    So can you answer for those following how one sets up a defensive/offensive mutual fund portfolio.? If you want to mention some funds by name please feel free. You will help cut down on anyone trying to read books on this. Who know what book is correct anyway !!

     

    Thanks!
    19 Jan, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to Windwood for taking the lead! Bio pharm does it again.

     

    Anyone watching the latest about NJ, the Guv, dirty tricks, mismanaged Sandy relief $, pay-offs to politicians by developers….whoa pay-offs??? Welcome to NJ.

     

    For the few who have read my comments in the past, the amount of corruption in NJ seems to be limitless.

     

    It's not based on party politics. Oh no, NJ welcomes any & all politicos that are willing to take a bribe.

     

    What's sad to me is that Christie was my hero, back in the late 1990s when the FBI ran a multi year sting called "Operation Bid Rig" that snared a developer, the kingpin Spalliero. And a lot of mayors, town councilmen, zoning officials, county gov't officials, etc. who were part of the corrupt process of getting a project built, a firetruck/emergency vehicle, a gov't contract etc.

     

    In Christie's defense, I don't think you can be in NJ politics and not get tarred. He might have been a good guy once, but his associates led him down the vendetta path. And other paths that are easiest to take because they are greased with pay-off $. Closing that bridge was done with his blessings. He's likely not going to get caught….because he's too smart to have put anything in writing. Even if his ex-staff talks, it will be difficult to prove his involvement.

     

    Another sad thing is that, no matter how many get arrested, or how many go to jail, corruption in NJ will survive.

     

    Kudos to Mayor Dawn Zimmer for going against the flow. Hoboken got a paltry $300,000 from Sandy relief. Why? Because she wouldn't do what the Guv's underlings wanted with the Rockefeller project. Wow. Score one for the good guys!
    18 Jan, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Think NJ is bad?? Move to NY and watch what gets accepted here. NJ looks like a church compared to us!

     

    You saw a little taste of what our Mayor tried with soda, cigarettes, and of course guns ! Funny how the NYC police are told to keep the bad paperwork ( ie robberies, attempted robberies, etc ) down . MEANING they never happened...

     

    So now crime is down in our city ? Please !!

     

    BTW..Where is LOMAH been ???
    18 Jan, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully Christie stays in the hunt for '16. He would be a good alternative to Hillary in the primary.
    18 Jan, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    You mean the Hillary that said "what difference does it make" (bengazi).

     

    I am selling Hillary style glasses that can also be worn on New Years ..They say 2016 on them...Two for the price of one..

     

    How many do you want ??

     

    18 Jan, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    IT, Might take you up on those glasses. Just broke my last pair of Harry Carey glasses..
    18 Jan, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    sales are slow so you might have to buy a dozen. I can discount them ?
    18 Jan, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    Tel Aviv most be absolutely beautiful always had fantasy of moving their.
    Sec of E was just in NJ.(PEG)
    18 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (4613) | Send Message
     
    D bank possible incorrect fixing ? how does that explain BAML lowering price target.?

     

    paranoia
    18 Jan, 05:33 PM Reply Like