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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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Comments (276)
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  • Author’s reply » OK, SO WHO'S BUYING ???
    30 Jan, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • It's warming up and spring will be here soon.
    30 Jan, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Not so warm for the POTUS rating of his speech Tuesday !

     

    http://huff.to/1fmfupm

     

    Not a shock!
    30 Jan, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL....morning

     

    Markets on track for biggest loss in 5 years !!

     

    I really feel sorry for those who really have no idea what they even own !

     

    I wish no one any losses.. I guess at some point a buying opportunity will arise,,

     

    Talking heads are all over the place as to why. Interested in opinions from our group why were correction right now !
    31 Jan, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Utility & Gold are excellent safe havens.
    31 Jan, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • IT, if you're an investor and not a trader it's only a loss on paper. I've added to and opened new positions over the last two weeks. Now I've set a few limit orders for buys that just haven't traded down through yet.

     

    I Need to learn to sell puts.
    31 Jan, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    I agree with you.. However you do have some investors getting close to or are retired...Those have to sometimes "take a loss" to sleep that night..

     

    Afraid that the loss could grow and they may lose a lot of money. Everyone has a different time frame..

     

    Additionally some investors also set stop losses at an early age.. Willing to take a specific loss and then walk away...
    31 Jan, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • That's why you really need to watch the income your investments generate. The price shouldn't concern you. I would think the dividend would be affected prior to any massive loss that is coming from a fundamental problem in the underlying investment.
    31 Jan, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Not necessarily...A stock could lose a ton BEFORE it cuts it's dividend...

     

    The price always concerns me.. I am close to 60..!!
    31 Jan, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Do you die when you turn 60?
    31 Jan, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • @ IT

     

    According to DGI investors in the know, it doesn't seem to work that way. The dividend cut is often the forward signal that price drop will be coming, not the other way around. Dividends are icing on the company's value, a luxury. So they go first when the company is in trouble.
    31 Jan, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Probably.
    31 Jan, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Again, the point I was trying to make. (JNJ) isn't going to tank while maintaining its dividend.
    31 Jan, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Usually it is reduce incrementally don't want to panic the sheep,need time to "Think"...
    31 Jan, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No, you turn more conservative if you expect a downturn..
    31 Jan, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    look back to 2008/2009 and let me know if the stock price dropped before the dividend was cut..

     

    Curious..
    31 Jan, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    Again, it is the investors time frame. . Not suggesting any tanking.. But if the DOW drops 10% it's gonna hurt for a while..

     

    Do you think differently ?
    31 Jan, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Which stock? David Fisher, and the other DGIs have written about this. I think they give examples (I'd have to look specifically to see if so.)
    31 Jan, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH...LOL

     

    That is why i asked.. I am not sure ...Maybe someone else can ??

     

    My guess is the stocks dropped first , then the dividend cuts happened, but i am guessing !!!
    31 Jan, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • I try to always be positive but blood,sweat & tears and the grind wheel sometimes it's hard to keep singing a happy tune.
    At moments like this i often think of Judy Garland,Come on lets get Happy!!
    1 Feb, 05:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mama told me not to go,what ever it is i seen i don't want to see no mo ! mama told me not to go oh oh !!
    1 Feb, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • E-PLURIBUS UNUM
    1 Feb, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah,
    Like at Nymex futures on WTI & Brent some of those contracts are around 81.00 "Mix&"Glut" has had an effect.
    They both are hoovering between 106 & 97 right now.
    If NG stabilizes lower again ! at 4.94 it's still a bargin on BTU's.
    1 Feb, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Don't worry, be happy !
    1 Feb, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • "I want to Rock & Roll all night & party everyday"

     

    Remember that one.
    1 Feb, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • IT and LOMAH,

     

    I agree with both of you.
    In 2008, 09, of course the stocks tanked before the dividend was cut because the price fell so fast. On the other hand, a stock can fall even further once a dividend cut is announced unless it's already "built in" to the price. You guys already know this.
    1 Feb, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Rock around the clock...
    Bill Haley
    1 Feb, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • It just keeps getting better and better !
    1 Feb, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • @ It

     

    The market generally crashing, is a macro event to ride out. Dividend cuts are to know to move to a different company with that pocket of money. So ignoring the macro of everything going down and up... dividends give "relative" value/solidness of a company... and cutting them gives heads up that something's wrong long before the something necessarily shows up overtly. But if you look and so problems with the dividend in tact, that's a perfectly good reason to leave it too.
    1 Feb, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Well did the stock price drop 2008/2009 before the Div. was cut.

     

    Can this be answered in simple YES and/or NO ?
    2 Feb, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • @Al

     

    It's not a simple yes or no. It's two different scenarios. Dividend drops in an individual company, don't predict macro drops across the board.

     

    1) If the meat you buy starts going bad early (dividends drop), you stop buying it. 2) If the meat goes bad because the refrigerator failed, you don't stop buying the meat and switch to any other product that's gone bad too. You've got a macro event that caused the problem. The stock price drop has nothing to do with the quality of the stock changing. The dividends going down, are all about signalling when the quality of a company is going down individually, relatiive to others.

     

    Now you may switch to a meat product that went bad more slowly during the bad refrigerator days. Studies show that dividend growth companies tend to hold value more during downturns than companies that aren't strong on dividend growth.

     

    That's the point that BSF has been making, and references to authors who write about this.
    2 Feb, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • So don't believe the hype,but stay with acceptable meat and fridge maintenance with a proven track record,And reliable cash flow.
    What do you think of (D).
    2 Feb, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL

     

    The answer is YES, stocks took a hit way before the dividends were cut.. Final answer..
    2 Feb, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • IT & LOMAH,

     

    Thank you for such a combination of wonderful perspective.
    On the subject of Macro/Micro events and their effect in the mechanisms of Share Ownership.
    2 Feb, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • LOMAH,

     

    IT's final answer is advisable.
    2 Feb, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • "Final answer.. "??
    Huh? That's uninviting. ...to be told to be quiet (to shut up). I'll just post my ideas elsewhere from now on.

     

    @Al
    IT's final answer is simplistic and misrepresents the signalling of dividend cuts.
    4 Feb, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah,

     

    foreign currency exchange can do it too.Exchange rates.

     

    your point on observation of the micro/macro is good too.
    4 Feb, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    I guess you never heard of the tv show "Who Want's To Be A Millionaire ?"

     

    But your choice ...Never heard them say that's my final answer??

     

    No way was that meant to be an insult or telling anyone to shut up .. Sorry you took it that way..

     

    Good Luck.
    4 Feb, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    Good afternoon.
    4 Feb, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL

     

    Afternoon to you !! I see LOMAH took my answer without understanding the joke...Too bad she didn't see the humor..

     

    Hope she still posts here. But it is her choice..
    4 Feb, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • I can tell we both have a deep affinity for her,it's not easy,they say time heals wounds,i just hope it's a bad hair day,that's all.
    4 Feb, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • @IT

     

    Didn't realize it was a joke!! So never mind my comment.

     

    @Al
    Bad hair day, lol.
    4 Feb, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Lomah,

     

    Disparity in market cap on a time line is a good indicator with dividends.
    4 Feb, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I added to my (PSEC) below $11 bucks.....It started to trend up then fell back down..

     

    Bought for that great dividend !! Will look for other investments tomorrow ...After I sell (NUGT) in my real portfolio..
    30 Jan, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Any opinions on this article..

     

    Janet Yellens impossible task ....Is it ??

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Jan, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T

     

    any opinion after what you saw happen today? DOW was up over 100 points.. S&P up close to 20..

     

    Out of the woods yet?
    30 Jan, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Wasn't exactly a "trending up close"...Tack's words. With Amazon's lousy earnings, I'm thinking red going into the weekend. I like Tack's approach of high yield value stocks.

     

    (TGT) isn't working out so well, but I'll be patient. I like Apple and think (hope) a big announcement may come from their annual meeting on February 28th. That along with a dividend hike could boost the stock. Couldn't sell any (AUY) today...maybe tomorrow.
    30 Jan, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe they will increment the iPhone iteration by one. Or add a letter to the end. Or have a semi-rounded corner... :)

     

    If I owned (AAPL), I would hang a picture of Icahn on my wall and pray to it daily.

     

    (TGT) has me watching (which is all I can do right at the moment due to lack of fundage)... But I may buy a little of that for a long-term dividend holding.
    30 Jan, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Good point about the "trending up close"
    30 Jan, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • I thought I was getting (TGT) at a discount with my first bite. Seems $62 wasn't near the bottom. Doubled up the other day, off top of my head I think it was $58 and change. I'm sitting tight from here.
    30 Jan, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FOLKS

     

    Take a look at JPM'S insiders selling !!! This should shake a few people up !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • O.K.
    31 Jan, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • IT...this is just the "noise" you need to read through. It's nothing more than that! The market is a little overvalued and as it's been pointed out more than once on this blog there were some nice gains this last year. It's just locking in profit.
    31 Jan, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    Not everyone considers it all *noise*. Some remember a lost decade on the DOW.. some are worried about how much of a correction we will have..

     

    I agree it could be a small correction. But were back to one's time horizon.. If your in your 60's you think differently investment wise then you do in your 40's...
    31 Jan, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • I would hope if you're in your 60's you're appropriately invested for your time horizon. I can definitely tell you that in my 60's I'm not dabbling with small bio techs like I do right now in my early 40's. I've watched 80% run up in 2 days only to see it turn to a 50% loss in a matter of hours. Not too good if I'm living off my investments.
    31 Jan, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • At 60 (or near to), an investor might want to stick to large-cap blue chips, or stable value money market funds.
    31 Jan, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • That's the point I was trying to make. Thanks.
    31 Jan, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    Throw in a divorce in your 40's and then tell me how you are set up financially.

     

    Like I said everyone has a different scenario.. I was set up pretty good in my 40's until the hammer got dropped on me..
    31 Jan, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    I am still playing catch up from 10 years ago.. Surprises do happen!
    31 Jan, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I agree with that style...I will get there very soon . Until then I have to take chances in my 50's...

     

    So far so good !!
    31 Jan, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    It sounds like you are looking for a get-rich-quick mechanism on Wall St. I don't think one exists. At least not one any safer than the blackjack tables in Vegas.
    31 Jan, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    No, but that is why I have a certain amount of funds set aside to play those 3x leverage plays...

     

    I know that no quick get rich investment exists...That is why what happened yesterday with me was exciting.. I hit a nice size home run, actually a grand slam.... I guess i posted it wrong .

     

    For that i am sorry. But i was indeed satisfied with the result..
    Finally took some pressure off of me. I studied the metals for quite some time.

     

    If i was lucky so be it. Maybe it is better to be lucky then good ?? Now i can get back to a more conservative approach. That is why i posted a mutual fund i am considering..

     

    Finally got some breathing room and am done with those 3x plays for a long time. Don't plan on giving it back ( except a portion for taxes next year ) lol
    31 Jan, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • I'd recommend planning for a 10-year horizon, and invest in safety.

     

    You exude a bias towards PM's and against stocks, so maybe 60% in a low-volatility PM fund(s), and 40% in something like (SPY), or (IVV).

     

    Late 50's seems (to me, at least) a bad time to trade for retirement funds...

     

    Or, you could always buy lottery tickets...
    31 Jan, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    PM's are the smallest part of my portfolio...I just seem to take a liking learning about them.. I own physical and don't plan on buying any more at this point...

     

    Sometimes one has no choice what age to invest. As i have stated i have a nice size settlement from an accident. But the misses gave me an allowance and is keeping the rest in cash..

     

    You never have enough to retire on imo... I might come off as a person who leans towards the metals.. But like many have stated one can own BOTH stocks and PM'S..

     

    Everyone also has a different value put on what they want when they retire...So i set goals but don't plan on hand picking stocks on my own ...

     

    10 YEAR horizon is the plan already put in motion..
    1 Feb, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Then preserve capital and get above inflation returns. You seem to be in a hurry for some reason...

     

    To paraphrase (and butcher, I'm sure, a movie quote): "Why is that, IT? What are you saving up to be? Jewish?"

     

    ;)
    1 Feb, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Now i am just waiting to see if we get that 10% correction then i am back into my mutual funds.. If not i am sure we aren't shooting to the moon soon...

     

    TACK pointed out that important 1775 number so i am going to be patient .That is why i am not bullish on stocks right now . I don't see anything wrong with that ..

     

    We NYER'S are always in a rush ..

     

    BTW.. My business partner of 20 years was Jewish and taught me plenty ...

     

    Remember i sold half way though last year , expecting a correction.. Close to 20% for the year was fine with me..
    1 Feb, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Don't know what to tell you, then... You say you're well-off, but are always frantically (to me, opinion) asking people what to do and what they think about situation x-y-z.
    Maybe the best advice I can give you is to go in and get a script for Xanax (PFE) and relax.
    You got a bookie on your tail or something?
    1 Feb, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Never said well off...But define what well off is to you?

     

    Sorry if you think my post seem frantic...Looking to educate myself isn't frantic..

     

    Anyway, i am done for the night.. Got some basketball games to do in the morning!
    1 Feb, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Good luck.
    1 Feb, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Thanks for the input!
    1 Feb, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Just trying to help. I'm younger than you by (at least, I think) a decade, and if I was your age I would not want to be running around from one investment to another. At 44 I'm already content with getting my ~8%/year.

     

    No muss, no fuss... Just send me my checks, and maybe throw in some price appreciation to boot... Happy camper.
    1 Feb, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Screw the banksters...send em to jail.
    1 Feb, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    IT knows more than he comes across as knowing. He's just trying to include more people in the conversation.
    1 Feb, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja,
    There's not enough space for them all.
    1 Feb, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    I am still learning.. Once a person says they know it all they actually know nothing..Been officiating for 25 years and I still ask questions of my fellow elders..

     

    Same holds true for investing. That is why I like everyone posting...We all can learn from each other..
    1 Feb, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    No one knows what the future holds..Gotta be prepared for anything !!
    1 Feb, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FILIPO

     

    The internet has made it very easy for people to dig and find information. One must decide is it factual or fictional...

     

    Then we all decide on our own what is the best course of action..

     

    Personally I am in a defensive position right now. We had a poster here who loved to ridicule people for their opinions. Especially when they did not match his !!

     

    So I am glad we won't be reading any more "chest bumping" comments here.. EVERYONE is entitled to their opinions and starting on Monday I want to start focusing on investments..

     

    I am going to cut down on my jokes, and concentrate on investing questions to either ask or deliver.. It will take this blog to a higher ground. We had a nasty chapter the one before, and I refuse to allow anyone to repeat and repeat the same comment. They have a word for that !

     

    Likewise I also will be monitoring my own posts. EVERYTHING is still open, especially if it has ramifications down the road..
    1 Feb, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I sincerely do appreciate whatever advice you want to hand out.. Like I said it is all helpful..
    1 Feb, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    But I really liked your jokes. It's going to be a loss if you cut them down.
    2 Feb, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FILIPO

     

    Knowing me I won't ..But I do want to start the learning process going again...Later tonight, after the Super Bowl I will start a new chapter and I hope ALL will help one anther out with investment opinions..

     

    Thanks !
    2 Feb, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Enjoy the Super Bowl, IT !
    2 Feb, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack:

     

    Thanks for the (SDRL) tip. I had been watching it about 6 months ago and hadn't been keeping up to date on it. Didn't know about the recent decline. I may jump in here.

     

    10% yield and may have bottomed (for now)
    30 Jan, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • (SDRL) is on my screen now also. I know that Fear likes (BAC) so it's also on my list. Fair value of futures is red for now.

     

    I'm always fearful of the super high dividend stocks, ones that pay over 7-8%. Always afraid they'll announce a dividend cut. I'm truly a defensive trader and it has cost me with the market's meteoric rise. A man's gotta do whatever helps him sleep at night, right?
    30 Jan, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • People were fearful of (SDRL) also in Oct of 2012 when the dividend payment was .84 and it yielded 8%.

     

    The dividend payment was last .95 and it now yields about 10% and it just got done going down 25%. I may take the chance.
    30 Jan, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    (GS) went with (LINE) instead.
    30 Jan, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • @Al

     

    This comment from a reader of this article, might give a hint why... http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    --
    Per most of JF company dividend policies, which are the best in the world IMO, don't forget that his Hemen Holding company holds shares in many of his companies in his and his daughter's names, so his family earns multi-millions per year from SDRL etc. divs - win-win for him and investors alike. Hemen owns something like 24% of SDRL shares out - tried to reduce their holdings by selling a bunch to Goldman Slacks, but JF snookered them with puts to buy them back, pocketed the cash from the puts, then took the shares back ;-)

     

    --
    (SDRL) is in contracting out deep sea drilling equipment. (LINE) in natural gas, but I haven't looked more. Are they in the same business niche?
    1 Feb, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah,
    I avoided both,but both have a future(Line) is natural Gas,land (SDRL) is deep sea Drilling,Brent crude,you hit the nail on head.

     

    If you want partners in Natural & Oil (D) is the best to start with you have seen (CHK)(LNG) perform on my challenge during an futures up spike and a short action against them,in this i trust those guys.I will look at the data provided thank you,just hang around the four Horsemen.subtle but worth it.
    1 Feb, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • @AL

     

    I'm completely new to the sector of energy. Seems like (D), (CHK) & (LNG) are all in very different niches in the business, or at least different from (SDRL). What niches of energy are best to get into right now? (That's a big topic.)

     

    --
    On a side note: I'd find your comments easier to understand if you used spaces between sentences and after commas. And caps at beginnings of sentences. In writing otherwise, it's harder to know when someone is pausing, and starting a new thought.

     

    --
    Who are the four horseman? These four stocks? What's subtle but worth it?
    1 Feb, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Not really,(D) is premier in liquid gas exports they are partnered with (DUK) (SO) (SCG) look energy,utility,telecom is a big family
    just own stock in you local providers,the carbon mandate mix has decimated coal,DC want's cleaner energy for the well being of the whole planet,i am proud of these men and women for their understanding and compliance.

     

    Lomah i will work on your kind suggestion,thank you kindly.
    1 Feb, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • You long solid hold should correlate to you trades and 3x ventures in this is IT's potential genies.

     

    The Green back in the modern sense of Currency is and should always be mightier than the sword.
    1 Feb, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL

     

    You woke up ? Where you been ??
    30 Jan, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Yes,
    I have been thinking how you operate with 3x, and in the portfolio challenge i have had opportunities to practice,and the guys told me to do that but without experience i may pay a tuition fee.

     

    plus i hired another guy to help me here and we are "grooving" in,so many unemployed around here,i do like to turn over some of my income into upgrades.
    "That is Justice"
    30 Jan, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I would consider some of these Chinese stocks and their China based economies.
    WE should follow some BRIC's (DANG) (BIDU) can be good quick trades.
    1 Feb, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Al,
    For the moment I stay miles away from EM's.
    The worst still has to come when there's one or two who actually default.
    I wait till the dust settles. I don't think there's much undervaluation yet in their currencies or stocks. I want more undervaluation (f.i. the Turkish Lira went up again last week by some 4% after they doubled the interest rate) before I take position in that field.
    1 Feb, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • filipo,

     

    Right now i mean mainly China & Brazil.Just keep an eye.
    1 Feb, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Al:

     

    Is this really you? You seem to be in an entirely different mode of expression.
    1 Feb, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Lomah did some coaching,kinda like Jane Goodall.
    1 Feb, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Al
    I wouldn't take that as a compliment if she said she was acting in the role of Jane Goodall.
    1 Feb, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • @JW

     

    I didn't say any thing like that. It was IT's way of answering humorously... I thought it was a cute comment by him... not a serious one.
    1 Feb, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • How do you think (CHK) (http://bit.ly/rmHAbP) will do Monday and do you know what the futures are at present.

     

    Lomah & John,TKS.
    1 Feb, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Futures seem to become meaningful indicators, often that morning... along with whatever foreign indices are doing.

     

    I haven't followed energy. Just starting to now.

     

    It could go either way. But the feeling lately is different. Correction is seriously possible.
    1 Feb, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    ME ? What did I say?? I think you mixed up some posters??
    1 Feb, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOMAH

     

    "@JW
    I didn't say any thing like that. It was IT's way of answering humorously... I thought it was a cute comment by him... not a serious one."

     

    It wasn't me , it wasn't me....GEEZ...I am in enough hot water already !! hehe

     

    Or did I read something out of context.. I do try to be cute sometimes...
    1 Feb, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • "Al
    I wouldn't take that as a compliment if she said she was acting in the role of Jane Goodall. "

     

    You made the original comment. JW made that comment to Al. I was asnwering that you were source for the original. ...so yes, it was about you being cute. ....And SA not linking the comments together.
    1 Feb, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » What original comment? I am lost !

     

    Please copy and post what you mean... Thanks !

     

    I can't take credit for a comment I don't remember making. Might be having a senior moment..
    2 Feb, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah,
    USD/MMBtu 4.94 ?
    2 Feb, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Al

     

    Is that an audible?

     

    Hut , hut , hut., Omaha !! ????
    2 Feb, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Yes,Fruit & cookie worthy.
    2 Feb, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Search Jane Goodall to see all comments in this thread...
    2 Feb, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • Lomah,
    You are my friend,

     

    USD MMBtu is units of natural gas kinda like a gallon last i saw it was $4.94 for feb 14 contracts,hey lets learn energy together because most big generation runs on the stuff it gets hot around air condition time too !
    2 Feb, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    What does an Audible mean ? sorry.
    2 Feb, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Correction ! Sorry ! contracts are MAR 14 Now !
    2 Feb, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • An audible is when a quarterback changes the play at the line... Like even if he was instructed to do A, he changes the plan and does B instead.
    2 Feb, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you John & IT. An audible,alright,and i played football i just figured out why the coach and quarter back always modulated their sentence structure when it my turn.O.K !

     

    Hey you should check futures going into 2015-2016 on WTI & Brent i think i saw it was $10 than present i think ng has a better shot make sure your guys produce a mix like (CHK).
    2 Feb, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • I remember now an audible can be an implicit play to offset the opposing teams tactics and strategy but different from the obvious,IT one has to get up very early in the morning to get one up on the Gipper !
    2 Feb, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • Al,
    I'm in hot water. Wish me luck, please.
    2 Feb, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Is it female related good luck Bro ,Oh i forgot i did not get today's paper i have to quick run to the store.
    2 Feb, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I bet I made no comment on Jane Goodall....At least I don't think so..
    2 Feb, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL

     

    Football term.. If quarterback changes the play at the line of scrimmage.. It's called an audible..
    2 Feb, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I understand,John W. says to sell (CHK) at 35.

     

    I made the comment on Jane Goodall,???.
    2 Feb, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Al,
    I think they still have a nice ride down to go.
    I wouldn't risk a penny on either of them two at this moment.
    The novelty of China/Brazil is gone, there's tapering in the air and right now US and European stocks offer so much more fun.
    2 Feb, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Filipo,

     

    We will just have to continue to study and Observe.
    2 Feb, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Al,
    Well, that's what I've been doing the last 30 years, studying and observing stocks, but in the end, one gets tired of that game: there are too many unknown variables.
    With gold, I haven't got that problem: I just buy and keep. It's a no-brainer and that's what makes it so attractive in these over-sophisticated times.
    2 Feb, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Filipo,

     

    I have some long holds in China & Brazil,i believe i was well advised and should be O.K
    I have also been advised to hold of on the Gold,but watch and observe.
    2 Feb, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The metals...What is happening with silver? Gold is range bound for now.. But silver is getting hit real hard..

     

    Any ideas ??
    30 Jan, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • JPM wants me to buy more pirate booty... ;)
    30 Jan, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    For those who know James Grant and his former denying of gold price manipulation, here's an enlightening interview with him on CNBC:
    http://cnb.cx/1lp3gSJ
    Apparently it takes time before people see the light.
    31 Jan, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FILIPO

     

    Gold and silver seem to be holding steady right now...Do you agree ??
    31 Jan, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • IT,
    Yes, there's the production cost argument that puts a bottom under gold.
    As long as energy cost stays around where it is, production cost certainly won't decrease much.
    There might be mergers and/or acquisitions in miner's land to cut costs, but overall miners' costs will stay stable.
    People who own physical gold aren't willing to sell it at these depressed prices, so the only physical gold the shorters can get their hands on is freshly mined gold. In that sense gold mining is important to the gold price.
    31 Jan, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I clarify.
    It struck me that Germany didn't get its 5 tonnes of gold from the NY Fed back in the form of the ancient gold that it had sent them in the sixties. Theoretically a bit of de-dusting would have been sufficient.
    Instead, the bars Germany received were brand new, probably coming straight from a US mine.
    And they were only 5 instead of 37 promised.
    Isn't that bizarre ?
    1 Feb, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Filipo

     

    I have been saying this for months.. We just don't have them..

     

    Now it's a race...Do people wise up or do they wait enough years to make people forget ?

     

    Not sure which way this will go !!
    1 Feb, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    "Not sure which way this will go !!"
    ST, I know neither, but LT, when all the shenanigans will have been debunked, the gold price will go up vertically.
    I have no doubt about that.
    Question now of course is, what is LT ?
    In the past I always said after 2014. I still think so. 2015 will be a pivotal year. Think of the huge amounts of debt that come to maturity then: the EM's already experience that aha-moment now and it will only get worse.
    2 Feb, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Dross,it needs to be polished.
    30 Jan, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Bouncing off the 1775 number......Is there any importance to how many times it does it.???
    31 Jan, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Got a bad feeling about the metals tomorrow. Not sure why, just do. Stocks aren't exactly showing any confidence either. Down day all around tomorrow.

     

    Disclosure: I may be right or I may be wrong :)
    30 Jan, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    How do feel about the metals now ??
    31 Jan, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • No,just splits off into the strong holds Gov support and monthly Rev.
    31 Jan, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    GLD is trending down and never did push thru 123. If we break 119, I'm bearish. If 119 holds, then we're in la la land again. Market has come back nicely today.

     

    Does anyone on this blog own (OPKO)? If you do or don't, what do you think?
    31 Jan, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    As I have stated many times...Watch the last half hour of trading.. That is when the real action happens..

     

    Gold is still trading in a range...I am not bearish at all on that part of my portfolio..

     

    I have no knowledge of the stock you mentioned...Sorry
    31 Jan, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Notice how the last hour deteriorated ?

     

    Art Cashin was quoted years ago stating that "everything before the last hour is just posturing" !!

     

    Gold is trading up a few bucks as well as silver a few pennies..
    31 Jan, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Sector allocation even just for swings 9 red 1 +0.59%,you'd be amazed.
    31 Jan, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL

     

    Where do you see this market going this year ?
    31 Jan, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    Where ever Janet and the Corpo's take it,The above mentioned is "everybodies" bank and mute cash cow.
    Should be alright,i hope fed took care of treas.
    31 Jan, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • To the moon with gold...yee haa!! Love to see a breakout, but I don't yet.
    31 Jan, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Gold want be allowed it is too indicative of failure.
    The seed is sown.
    31 Jan, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja

     

    I have an instablog I updated yesterday with my call for the short term trend for gold. Recent additions at bottom of the blog.
    Accurate so far.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW

     

    Are the wheels starting to wobble some more ??
    31 Jan, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Well, I could see gold climbing into the $1,300+ range soon if QE holds in a monthly range of $65b. Right now QE is the only visible support for the stock market as much to my surprise, earnings are falling short of analysts expectations. I would look for further "wack-downs" in gold if gold starts to pick up any upward momentum. The FED will probably allow $1,300-$1375 gold in this environment.

     

    If the FED continues with future tapering, look for further drops in the S&P 500, and further pressure on the FED to hold down gold pricing through the paper markets. If QE is held or grows, I could see the S&P win back some of its January losses, and gold would be held in the mid $1,200 range.

     

    I don't see any positive movement in any of the indicators within the OAG Wall-of-Worry index. I maintain that one or more of the items within that index would need to show signs of recovery or the S&P only has QE to support it.

     

    Finally, I do think the bottom is in for gold. It would appear that the FED either does not have a need for a lower gold price, or lacks the tools to drive it lower. Maybe a little of both, but I choose the former.

     

    For the equity markets, that light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of the oncoming train. I would feel more comfortable if we didn't share the same set of tracks!
    31 Jan, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • AOG

     

    "OAG Wall-of-Worry index"

     

    "IT FIB" chart,

     

    I'm going to have to come up with something distinctive of my own. I can't be left behind on this. I'll be in development this week.

     

    Gold, yes I agree with 1300, but I think that will come easy. It should go to about 1400, possibly higher. The big drop came from 1500 in April 2013, and that would be real stiff resistance.

     

    Its about ready to jump up to the 200 day MA. Its the just above the 50 day (119.21 for GLD) and is poised to take the 200 day MA (about 127 for GLD) --would only take a 6% move to get above the 200day.
    da#@mm this SA automated formatting!!
    1 Feb, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Probably the only thing on the OAG wall of worry index that is holding stable and showing some strength is oil and natural gas. Spikes in the oil price always seem to occur in times of trouble to the economy since the early 70's. There are enough other items on the index to counter this positive, this time though.

     

    In trying to do some reverse engineering on the gold price, I think if we do see 1400 or even 1500+ we should be able to look back during such a rise and see a change in the pattern of the large naked short selling of paper. We just had another attack on Thursday, Jan 30. Higher gold prices should also be indicative of further tapering along with a falling stock market. I still think the tapering will reverse during 2014.
    1 Feb, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. S&P futures down 25 and gold up $10 this morning. The question is ...when will gold break through $1,275? Gets there and falls back every time.
    31 Jan, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    I think the bigger concern are the stocks..

     

    Gold is holding steady right now. Seems to be trading in a range.. But silver is up a little..

     

    Like I posted before stocks might decline for a while at a slow pace.. If gold stays steady then we know it has reached a bottom.. But we do see plenty of itchy fingers right now !!

     

    NINJA...Don't forget we have a challenge going on, you are welcomed to join in anytime you like.
    31 Jan, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • I do NOT think the bottom is in for gold. Too many trading on margin, and when the real fear hits this market, everything goes down, including the metals. I suspect this is what Avi is referring to also although I cannot speak for him.

     

    Near term, watch the 119ish level for GLD. That's your bogie.
    31 Jan, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    I don't believe in those Elliot waves...If you really read Avi's comments he sets up so many different IF'S that one of them has to hit..

     

    Then he yells "I NAILED IT"

     

    The Dr in our portfolio challenge was using his waves. Take a look where he is . LAST !

     

    I am not saying the low in gold is in.. But one might ask while the markets sold off this month gold was UP close to 5%..Keep that in mind !!

     

    btw...I own physical bought way below the current prices..
    31 Jan, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Doug

     

    I did sell out of my position , but I used my timing as well. I agree that the bottom of gold might not be in yet.

     

    But I ain't selling my physical.. Nor am I buying any now either..

     

    Silver is perplexing me right now to be honest..
    31 Jan, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    I own both physical gold and silver and for now...2,000 shares of AUY. I'm underwater on my gold and silver but not too bad. Don't PLAN on selling it but every man has his price.
    31 Jan, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    AS I stated above. Everyone has a different game plan. My physical was bought over 10 years ago. I plan on passing it down to my daughter unless I NEED my "insurance" ..

     

    Now if gold and silver went parabolic then all bets are off !

     

    But I truly believe that 10 years from now gold will be more expensive then today...How much ? Who knows!!
    31 Jan, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • IT...it wasn't a panic sell off. Big difference.
    1 Feb, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ninja

     

    No panic sell off in anything yet. Hope it never happens as I really don't want to see people get wiped out..

     

    But that 1775 number is very close...
    1 Feb, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • "Gets there and falls back every time" --

     

    That will hold true until it now longer does. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It's working on breaking through.

     

    HEY AL:
    Gold at 1275:

     

    Break on through to the other side, Break on through to the other side, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah ...
    1 Feb, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    United States has more physical in reserve than all nations combined.
    John is Monday the 3rd Janet's 1st day on the job?

     

    John? John ! JOHN !!...
    1 Feb, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • IT said; "Silver is perplexing me right now to be honest."

     

    Hey IT. Silver is acting more like an industrial metal. Notice the price of copper? Emerging Markets getting hammered is negative for the industrial metals but silver, when it acts like a monetary metal either dragged along by gold or leading gold, it will move quickly at some point. But this deflationary contraction has to play out more I think.

     

    4 Feb, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Good points Doug. It went the opposite of Gold today .Case in Point.
    4 Feb, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK, DENVER OR SEATTLE ???
    31 Jan, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Denver
    31 Jan, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • SEATTLE
    2 Feb, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL

     

    Now you sound like Avi >>>
    2 Feb, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Who would try to nail Avi down to call this one so early? The game hasn't even started yet! C'mon man!
    2 Feb, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • IT,
    What a compliment !
    2 Feb, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • I was looking for a bounce today. We had the usual beat down yesterday leading up to first notice day.
    A great big 55 gold contracts were posted for delivery today. 51 were J P Morgan's customers.What? 55 the first day? There may be 10,000 more out there.
    With Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey and S Africa's currencies in free fall, a small amount of deliverable gold on the Comex, I feel like something big is about to happen.
    Not to worry. JPM can fiddle the numbers any way they please.
    31 Jan, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MAYBE buying stocks on the dip isn't a great idea right now !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • On a lighter note, it sounds like the Denver & Seattle organizations are trying to call an audible for the halftime show this Sunday. It seems that the performance of the surviving members of the Grateful Dead would have greater appeal to promote these two locations.
    31 Jan, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Rumor has it that Hoffa will rise from the left end zone in amazement !

     

    After all it is the Meadowlands to us NY'ERS >>>
    31 Jan, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Boy, that would really upset a lot of Lions fans. They are certain that Jimmy's final resting ground is in/around the greater Detroit area. He certainly would have chosen that in honor of his dedication and contributions to Detroit and the surrounding area.
    31 Jan, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well I am picking Denver as the wife loves Peyton !! We actually have a signed jersey from him in a frame.. Unfortunately it is when he was with the Colt's !

     

    For Denver fans were having pot roast for dinner..(.Hint..he Is a linesman for Denver..It's his nickname..
    31 Jan, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Should be a very close game. Peyton vs. the top defense. I say Broncos by a roach clip.
    31 Jan, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You just showed you age !!
    31 Jan, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Last night I was thinking of some of the mutual funds that I have owned ..Looking for value investing one specific one stood out.. Tweedy, Browne !! Here is a link for those that might have interest..

     

    http://www.tweedy.com
    31 Jan, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Out of curiosity and not wanting to read a prospectus and running them through a comparision website, anything in particular stand out about them? Not trying to be snarky - am curious. Know nothing about them one way or the other.
    31 Jan, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    They ONLY buy value stocks ....
    Just open up the link and read their info.. No need to read the prospectus.. Pull up their annual charts and look at the returns.. They never really get burnt to the downside but also miss the high upsides..

     

    Hence when I owned them I could sleep at night knowing I should make money annually..
    31 Jan, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Hi all...will be writing an article on gold and silver when I get back from trip next week.

     

    I am bullish on the stock market right now, and PM'd IT to get out of NUGT a few days ago, lol.

     

    Still dollar and treasury bullish. Goes against what those who sell gold are supposed to say, but I'm different that way.

     

    Gold will break to new lows at some point. I have been telling my clients to hold off because of it, but some do still buy as they are dollar cost averaging into a position.

     

    Have a good weekend you all!
    31 Jan, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A former "FED " Michael Cox...DALLAS Fed Senior VP .. Stated on BBN'S that if inflation doesn't start to pick up soon, and if deflation sets in, the tapering would stop !!
    In fact the FED buying would actually increase...Stated that the FED cannot be happy with the non inflation now happening.
    Just keep that in mind folks...
    31 Jan, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • IT, It has been proven that the fastest most efficient way to achieve a desired value in the CPI is to change the way in which this index is measured. They need to include food, energy, taxes, and Obamacare insurance costs. If they can just add these few items to the index, we should be able to see some high inflation happening immediately. Especially a year from now when this next wave of Obamacare enrollees explodes upwards.
    31 Jan, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OBMACARE insurance cost might do it on it's own !!
    31 Jan, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • A big part that I left out would be the significant cost increase to the insured under Obamacare to pay for higher premiums, deductibles, lower co-pay rates, and higher out-of-pocket limits. And yes, as a stand alone, the Obamacare overall costs will be devastating if we are forced to stay the course as is, into 2015.

     

    I don't see QE disappearing anytime soon. Maybe the FED can pick up the tab for a large portion of Obamacare costs under QE next year?
    31 Jan, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • OAG,

     

    No. The average family will save $2,500 per year under Obamacare. Obama said so, so it must be true.
    31 Jan, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Did he say, "average family"? Or, "ordinary average family"?
    31 Jan, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm... Good point. I failed to check the text of his speech for that, or to see if he said "asterisk, dagger, double-dagger" at the end...
    31 Jan, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • You have to watch that stuff pretty carefully. It is very easy to make a wrong accusation that a politician is lying. I've made that mistake more than once myself. Most all of them are lawyers and skilled at choosing the right words and punctuation to express what they are saying. Me? I'm no lawyer, just an ordinary guy...and average at that.
    31 Jan, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • But you have a remarkable resemblance to Gomez. That's not ordinary - that's special. ;)
    31 Jan, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • You hit the nail on the head!!! IMHO. No deflation happening here...these aren't the droids you're looking for...move along
    31 Jan, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Tell us the secret how to write a paragraph?? Who do you know ?
    31 Jan, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    Your picture looks like you just opened your 401k for January...lol.
    31 Jan, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • lol. :) Yeah, you have a good point. :)
    31 Jan, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Or what Governor Christie from NJ looked like tonight !!
    31 Jan, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • You know I'm a southerner and just can't understand why this is such a big deal. This is NEW JERSEY and it is POLITICS! Please one of you Yankees :-) enlighten me as to why this is even on my TV?
    31 Jan, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn 1970,
    ?
    31 Jan, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Chicago-style politics is the domain of the Democrats. People get flustered when the 'Pubs dabble in it a little...
    31 Jan, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • CWnn, because he's contorversial BIG news.. only controversial big news sells to the either breathing masses. It has nothing to do with reality. It has everything to do with status quo ratings - a hack game - that's it. Anybody who thinks any of this is real - or for the benefit of the people are fooling themselves. BUY PHYSICAL SILVER while is is below $20/ It is a no brainer! Peace good luck.... the game is over !
    1 Feb, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • People said that when silver slipped below $30/ounce, too. It was a can't-miss, sure bet.
    1 Feb, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBT, it is a matter of time. Forget the spot charts. They too are an illusion. I'm all in, it's what I believe is correct in my view and I'm not going to spend a lot of time trying to convince folks otherwise. Good luck, biz.
    1 Feb, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fair enough. I hope your investment pays off for you.
    1 Feb, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • thank you, John
    1 Feb, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like Christie is under a little pressure right now and since it has gone national, this is all about 2016. He is backed into a corner right now. His best out would be to change his "R" to a "D", and possibly reverse his position on a key position or two, and then the media would call off the dogs.

     

    The '16 primary between Christie & Hillary would be interesting to watch. They could offset each other's storied past using the "what difference does it make" strategy.
    1 Feb, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Only thing i can say is good evening it sure beats "Welcome to Hades".
    31 Jan, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Lomah,

     

    (UIL) read on the SA look up what it says Oil & Gas (UIL) a potential goldmine.

     

    "Blue the life giving water's quietly understand but wonder why the fight is on"
    1 Feb, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • SA,Thank you, thank you,

     

    Thank You,peace.
    1 Feb, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » January was just a speck of time in the grand scheme of investing.

     

    Personally ,I think February will give us some more insight as to where were heading !!
    1 Feb, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Brave Challengers it is the weekend.

     

    Yes Monday a whole new Administration.
    1 Feb, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • (LINE), (CVX), or (CLX) will have all my attention next week. I'll be opening a new position in one of the three (unless the market is still in frantic mode). Anyone hold them, or have pro/con thoughts on any of them?
    Other than that, regular monthly purchases of (XOM) and (LMT) occur next week. Dividends will be re-invested in (T) and (VZ).
    1 Feb, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT
    Interesting three you picked...
    May I ask why?? Also do you still invest in mutual funds or do you pick your own stocks??
    1 Feb, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stability and dividends. Energy and consumer staples are "safe" stocks. This will be a long-term hold, and I'm not expecting big price appreciation - just steady income.

     

    Only my wife's 401k is invested in funds. I am not against them, I just like to invest in individual stocks.
    1 Feb, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Or for any one else that follows the BDC'S...
    Besides (PSEC) any recommendations?

     

    Hard to pass up the nice dividend...Plus we seem to be in a position of low interest rates for a few more years..

     

    JBT...Good plan on getting a dividend stream.. Do you drip or collect the dividends to buy some other stock?
    1 Feb, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Currently all of my stocks are DRIP'ed. As I get more of my holdings away from Computershare and into my real brokerage, I may change that.
    1 Feb, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • IT...I hold (MAIN) and (TCPC)
    1 Feb, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    I remember you saying (MAIN) was near it's top of it's value.. I read last week that (FSC) was now a BUY !!

     

    What do you like about both of them ??
    1 Feb, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, (MAIN) has gone higher since then. FSC been on my watch list for most of last year. Talk of the coming dividend cut kept me away. Looks like it stabilized and rose a little after the cut. Here is a good article that hopefully will help answer your questions on them.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Feb, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    Do you also follow BUZZ ?? He writes specifically about the BDC'S and sends out a weekly newsletter for free ??
    2 Feb, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • yes
    2 Feb, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I asked TACK in a PM what he thought about that 1775 number.. Here was his response..

     

    "The more times it's tested, it's just likely to make the final outcome more definitive, either up or down. If it's tested and retested and buying support gets exhausted, it could give way rapidly, and we could get that 10% correction down to 1650, or so. However, if it gets tested a bunch and holds, then we could have a sustained rally.

     

    In either case, I don't think the world is ending, and I am not altering my current portfolio balance because of it. The market hasn't had any volatility in so long that people are overreacting to the arrival of a little."

     

    Any thoughts ??
    1 Feb, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Scenario for the rest of 2014.
    The "January indicator" would give the probability of stocks ending lower yet 11 months from now. The January high may have been the top for now. The market could be correction going into Spring. Then a summer rally to possibly a new high. Economic weakness that becomes apparent in the fall, in spite of massive QE, would weaken the market. Ideally and to follow the classic de-leveraging crash model, this would take place in the Fall, like in October.
    Yeah, its all speculation at this point. Market top in Aug '14:
    It would be 7 years from the 2007 top
    -- 14 1/2 years from the 2000 top
    -- almost 28 years from the 1987 top
    Somewhat cyclic? Yes, I will be watching for this possibility.
    1 Feb, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • I am updating this comment due to the severe winter we have had that has caused massive disruptions of economic activity. This may be a contributing factor in the possibility of a negative GDP for the first quarter. Add the effects of Obamacare and who knows how bad it will be.
    ----
    Oh yes, about 28 years counting back from a possible fall 2014 market top takes us back to 1987. Double the 28 years = 56, and count 56 years back from 1987. That takes you to 1931 which was the near the bottom of the depression after the 1929 crash.
    12 Feb, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    Thank you.
    1 Feb, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Al
    I knew you would understand.
    You can't get this anywhere else on SA.
    1 Feb, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • John sometimes i think your actions are more like gods than a humans.
    2 Feb, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • I think the high is in for stocks this year. We'll make one more run back up but will meet resistance again. Gold and the DOW will cross paths at the same time around 1,400.
    1 Feb, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ninja

     

    Be careful making predictions like that...You might be right but maybe explain why you feel this way?
    1 Feb, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    More and more people are getting wise to this QE disguise. Fear is starting to set in, rallies are being sold. Market is EXTREMELY overbought. We're headed to DOW 14,000 this year. When it gets there, I'll reassess the situation.

     

    For those that scoff at this, what say ye?
    2 Feb, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • Al

     

    To respond to your (CHK) question way up above:

     

    I Own (CHK). I owned it in 2008 when it touched $70. I bought at $8. in 2000 or so. I was not playing attention in 2008. I thought it would keep going up, and it would split, and keep going up and be a about a "20 bagger"
    Like I said I had a lot of other things going on in 2008 and wasn't paying attention and it went from 70 down to 22 before I sold. I left a lot of money on the table. After 6 years it has crawled back from $10 to $27 after selling off from $70. I did buy back again.

     

    Let that be a lesson about not watching your stocks. They can go down.
    The nervous passenger on the Titanic asked the designer of the ship the question (in the movie): The "Titanic can't sink can it?" and the designer replied: "It is made out of steel. It can sink."

     

    Al

     

    I still own CHK. It will likely revisit $35 which is about mid-way to $70. That is a historic resistance level. They current cold weather pattern is making NG spike and CHK looks like it will break out from $28 resistance and carry up to $35.

     

    I would sell at $35.
    1 Feb, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    On the same page with that,What do you think of a big producer buying them at 50 ?
    2 Feb, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • (LNG) Anything ?
    2 Feb, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • (CHK) is a big producer, but that would be really nice. I have no knowledge of anything like that coming. Maybe a merger. They can't drill all of their lease commitments as it is. They need help.
    2 Feb, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Tomorrow I will let you folks know what the *IT FIB* red flags will be..

     

    Until then the FIB already warned of a market drop at the beginning of the year..

     

    Janet Yellin calling gold an asset class confirmed that gold will be higher at the end of the year. Remember she was wearing a GOLD NECKLACE when she said it..

     

    It was a signal....The FIB told me !!
    1 Feb, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ok, Avi....
    1 Feb, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    Have you asked Yellen whether her necklace was genuine gold with no tungsten inside ?
    They make everything these days.
    There was this Bloomberg story of an Iranian arrested in Turkey who sent gold from Turkey to Dubai and from there to Iran. Part of the gold appeared to be lead.
    I'll try to find it back. Here it is. I warn you, it's a long boring story and it's only at the end that it becomes interesting. Unfortunately you have to read it all to be able to understand the paragraph "Yellow bricks":
    http://bloom.bg/1a1w2DU
    2 Feb, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FILIPO

     

    In NYC a jewelry store owners bought a few 100 oz gold bars about 2 years ago, From a German salesman.. It weighed the same as gold so they haggled about the price but the jeweler THOUGHT he got a great deal.

     

    Turns out the bars were filled with Tungsten.. Now they will do a sonogram to determine if the gold is real or not. The locals papers would not give out the name of the store located in our famous diamond district for fear of him losing customers..
    2 Feb, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I hadn't heard that story, but it doesn't surprise me: the higher the price stays or goes, the more cheaters will surface. Wealth attrackts thieves.
    2 Feb, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » For those who gamble on the Super Bowl the *IT FIB* has Denver as a lock !!!

     

    Now if that happens...

     

    Definition of 'Super Bowl Indicator'

     

    An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year.

     

    Hold onto your hats !!!
    1 Feb, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • When Bernanke said, "Nobody really understands gold prices and I don't pretend to understand them either,"
    what he really meant was:

     

    "I really don't get why gold didn't go down more than it did, the way we sold all those futures contracts on a sunday night, it should have gone down below $1000. I just don't understand it"

     

    You just have to read between the lines.

     

    Yellen's gold jewelry is an obvious Illuminati signal that its all right to buy gold now. They're not going to try to push it lower. She could have worn diamonds or pearls you know.
    1 Feb, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW

     

    If Denver wins I have some work to do inside the bunker.. Had a few guests ask me if they can come on down..?

     

    Do you know where I can buy some upward flushing devices ??
    1 Feb, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • If you did not plumb your bunker properly, you will not survive the pock-e-clypse.
    1 Feb, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT.
    Do you think I should let my in laws stay or do I just shoot myself and save the agony ??
    2 Feb, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Go to Gander Mountain and buy them a tent.
    2 Feb, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I knew I could rely on you for solid advice !! Pup tent???
    2 Feb, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • You can splurge and get a cabin tent with a sewn in floor. You might even get one with an awning and tie-shut window flaps. Maybe even a waterproof storm cover. Don't want to be cheap with your in-laws.
    2 Feb, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Since they are in-laws, splurge. Two-room, minimum, but set a max cost of $150.00.

     

    Feed them ramens and spam.
    2 Feb, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Once in awhile (MCD) (CPB)...Sundays and holidays.
    2 Feb, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • Al
    So you don't really cook for yourself I see?
    2 Feb, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    I do,as (time goes on) i eat more and more like a bird,about 5 smaller meals a day,low salt low fat,
    I am working on the next chapter in my life and if all goes well and it seems it will,will definitely stay on here at SA.
    I did a lot of cooking in my life.
    2 Feb, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Guys..

     

    I just asked them, unfortunately they want a suite in the bunker !! I told them it cost 20 ounces of gold.. I only have 10 suites ...They might have to downside to an economy room ..It is only 5 ounces of gold and 5 ounces of silver.. But dos include one free meal a day of spam..

     

    The three bedrooms are almost all sold out. The rooms with a bullet proof glass ceiling that is ground level are already sold out .

     

    It is now up to them !!
    2 Feb, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • IT
    How deep is your bunker?
    Or is yours one of those retrofitted ICBM missile silos? That's what I would like to have and condo-ize it. BSF is in real-estate. Maybe she could help in developing and selling units in a retro-fit missile silo.
    2 Feb, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW

     

    Steward Air Force Base is about 20 miles away from me. Now, it is also a commercial air line airport as well. Has a run way long enough for the Challengers to land on it if it was necessary... A town called Pine Bush, NY, is called the UFO Capital up here. Even host an annual costume party .

     

    You would think that maybe the military were flying something new ? Not a UFO ? Nah...They aren't that sharp in the 60's up here..

     

    Anyway , I had a contact and yes, they had some unused silos saved for launching that also had offices, and a complete compound for a possible nuke attack.

     

    Bought the property and have been renting out units inside for a decade now. Never know when you might need it. You gotta see the view from below looking up through that protective glass. At night the stars are just beautiful..

     

    Never had to use any For Sale signs either...Back a few years ago I accepted fiat money because I could flip it and buy that tasty 30 year lifespan food.. Um Um good!!

     

    BUT NOW, IT'S ONLY THE METALS THAT ARE ACCEPTED FOR RENT!

     

    Even found some machine guns unused in a back closet with a ton , and I mean a ton of ammo!!
    2 Feb, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • That's exactly what I was dreaming about.
    2 Feb, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK THE FINAL *IT FIB* SUPER BOWL PREDICTION IS IN !!!

     

    Denver wins by double digits...!!

     

    HOWEVER, if the guy sitting in section 103, row D, seat 4, has two beers then the points drop to single digits. Now if section 305 has more men then women the game is now a toss up.. Additionally if Peyton does not yell OMAHA 27.5 times ( the vegas spread ) Seattle has a very good chance of winning..

     

    So there you have it. I am sure *I NAILED IT* !!
    2 Feb, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • OMAHA is really an acronym.

     

    I'll give you a clue what it means. O is for OBAMA
    M is for Mindnumb
    A is for
    2 Feb, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • O-Obama
    M- Mindnumb
    A_
    H- Hates
    A-America
    2 Feb, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I FORGOT TO ADD..

     

    Denver wins the toss.

     

    NJ will not host another Super Bowl in the next 10 years .

     

    Seatlle's QB will throw 2 pic's.

     

    We will see new commercials.

     

    We also will see a touchdown dance..
    2 Feb, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • IT, So you are using sentiment to guide your call on the game today. I respect that.
    2 Feb, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The *IT FIB* was humming all night coming up with so much information..

     

    Even gave odds that the words POT ROAST will be mentioned. Which is what were serving a few friends later !

     

    Hint...#94 on Denver's nickname...
    2 Feb, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Avi is checking the charts in early second corner and he is leaning Seattle right now...
    2 Feb, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • I am checking the halftime charts, and I am going to go with the Seahawks.
    2 Feb, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • OAG ,
    Using the Avi Gilbert method I see. LOL
    2 Feb, 08:16 PM Reply Like