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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Author’s reply » What will we wake up to? Any surprises ?
    9 Feb, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Futures are flat and gold is up $7. $1,275 will press the shorts and we could see $1,300. I need another 40¢ to break even on my (AUY). Going to sell it and never look back. (GG) is much better. Will wait on the sidelines for gold to bottom and then back up the truck. Somewhere around $1,100 is my call. Start to average in around $1,150.

     

    Question...Is there a fee involved with owning (GDX) or (GDXJ)? I've never traded them before. I might try (GDXJ) over (GG).
    9 Feb, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Yes there are extra fees. (GDX) 0.52% ,(GDXJ) 0.48% annually.
    10 Feb, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR MINERS..THIS ARTICLE MIGHT HELP !!!!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Feb, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry (GDXJ) is 0.55%
    12 Feb, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    No fee on my challenge! lol

     

    But seriously I did not pay any fee besides the usual trading fee in my brokerage account..

     

    Maybe others can add to this ?

     

    If gold opens up in the morning the trading day should be interesting.
    9 Feb, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • As i get older and more dull i predict less don't want to get anyone in the troubles,The market's not an individual thing it's a team thing with 10 sectors and has S&P Nasdaq Dow it's just piecing the Dragon together and knowing what part is where you need to be.
    It' mass energy space and time and knowing what to do with it in the sense of the market.
    10 Feb, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • Good Morning to all.

     

    Keeping an eye on several portfolio stocks this week. (UPS) and (COP) moving higher.

     

    See you back here after the Olympics.

     

    Have a great day.
    10 Feb, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DEER

     

    Take a look at gold and silver. Still trending up for some reason. Not sure it is technical...Maybe Janet will surprise us tomorrow?

     

    Personally, i doubt it. Too soon. So why is gold breaking that technical $1270 number ?
    10 Feb, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Oh good! More entertainment coming for our friends in northern climes: Snow forcasted on Wednesday in north Georgia!

     

    Two possibilities:

     

    1. Various governments tell everyone to stay home and take proper precautions - any snow will not stick and we repeat with the short term memory issue of not being prepared the next time there's real snow.

     

    2. Various governments do what they usually do which is wait and see - snow sticks and then glazes over into ice and another debacle happens.

     

    Good thing I have this week off from work again!
    10 Feb, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    I am getting tired of hearing that sound of shovels and plows to be honest !!

     

    Georgia.. Get ready !!
    10 Feb, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • If you lived down here and it snowed, you would be quite happy to hear the seductive siren song of snow plows! (but I won't, because they won't be deployed until it's too late)
    10 Feb, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    If I move down there and here plows I might shoot myself :)

     

    That isn't in my game plan..
    10 Feb, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • This whole thing the system at this point,numb...
    10 Feb, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    At least it would be a different noise than the lawn maintainance guys I currently hear.
    10 Feb, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    You have no idea how us North people loathe for that sound !!
    10 Feb, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • 20 below wind chill this morning in Omaha so stop complaining!

     

    Thanks IT and tommyinexile for the fee information. I'm looking for a new gold stock to invest in. Sold my (AUY) and hopefully won't regret it.
    10 Feb, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    My niece is a reporter in Nebraska.. Hopefully one of those smarter then me will make some suggestions for you..

     

    Personally, I hold physical bought years ago. Looking to actually add some undervalued stocks soon..

     

    But you called gold would wipe out the $1270 barrier.. Good call !!
    10 Feb, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • We as a people really have to figure out what's real and where we really are and start operating from the real is,what reigns are the younger generation being handed.
    10 Feb, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gold still trending up. What's Janet going to say in the morning ?
    10 Feb, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Find it unlikely that she'll disappoint markets,but maybe she will.It would bring down interest rates on bonds.
    10 Feb, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    Welcome.. I agree that she will be towing the FED line this month. But nothing is off the table..

     

    Taper will continue..
    10 Feb, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, which stocks are considered on sale now?

     

    Some lurkers would love some symbols...

     

    Thanks!
    10 Feb, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • For those with patience excellent values developing in Brazil and Chile:

     

    (AKO.A)
    (ABEV)
    (VALE)
    (SID)
    (SQM)
    (PBR)
    10 Feb, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • (CPL) & (PEG) also.
    10 Feb, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • (COP), (XOM) and (PM) are a bit discounted today...
    10 Feb, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T

     

    Thanks !! Do you have any suggestions for mutual funds for value companies. I, personally am interested. I know you mentioned Wellington and Windsor...Any others ??

     

    Some are like me and aren't sharp enough to trade on our own. So appreciate anything you can add..
    10 Feb, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AL and JBT

     

    Thanks !!! I am sure these will help some of the lurkers..
    10 Feb, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • IT:

     

    (VTV)
    (MFV)
    (RVT) (excellent fund)
    10 Feb, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T
    Is there a big difference between (VTV) and (VOOV). Or are they the same?

     

    One looks to just be the S&P 500 ?
    10 Feb, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • IT:

     

    All the Vanguard "value" funds are pretty vanilla and probably too weighted toward index names for my taste. I included it for conservative investors.
    RVT would be my own pick.
    10 Feb, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T

     

    I see it was up today as well...Thanks !
    10 Feb, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • IT,
    I'm mostly is cash right now. Searching for a new gold miner to invest in. I think Apple is undervalued...hoping it tanks so I can get some.

     

    I think this correction is still alive and well and I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for a pullback. Gold is just SITTING on $1,275 today! Literally squatting and not moving. Which way it goes is anyone's guess at this time. If the market pulls back again, I think it will go lower than last week as confidence will be waning.
    10 Feb, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Watch the last hour of trading on gold and the markets.. The real players show up and chase the little guys away. It becomes their field for that hour !
    10 Feb, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • We're coming out with an article on Premier Gold Mines (PIRGF in the US) and we think that should be valued around $2.50 USD per share at current prices.

     

    An explorer heating up the wires now is Probe Mines (OTCPK:PROBF) because they've just issued some excellent drill results. Own a little bit of shares but thats one that can really take off
    10 Feb, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hebba

     

    Thanks for the input!
    10 Feb, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting. I am long premier gold. Let me know when it comes out.
    10 Feb, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Here is an article on miners for you !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Feb, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • If you really want to speculate you could try GWSAF. GG made a 2.4 billion offer for Osisko, pricing their gold in the ground at $800 an ounce. I bought GWSAF on 1/13/14 for $0.0347 per share, pricing their gold in the ground at $3.00 an ounce.Both are in the Timmons District.
    GWSAF closed today at $0.0796 per share.
    Dynasty Gold has been on a tear. It is also in the Timmons District.
    10 Feb, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks IT. Bought a little (GG) in the after market. Gold is up $9 as I type this. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Futures indicating a higher open for stocks also.

     

    Not looking good for my call of both being down tomorrow.
    10 Feb, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA
    Learned a long time ago NEVER try to time the markets. If I got it right I guess I was lucky !!

     

    Don't be surprised to see a sell off in the markets tomorrow..
    10 Feb, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Gold has been correcting for 2 years now,after making a substantial up move ( GLD from ~$85 to ~$171) , sofar it's about a 50 % Fib.retr. maybe a double bottom has been put in place and up we go. So yes Gold is on sale now. Will there be enough fear to drive the price up this coming spring or summer?
    The Market is awaiting tomorrows event with Janet,so kind of a wait and see moment.
    Personally got more of an eye on (EEM) (CHL) (FXI) (TZA) for this weeks short term trades. Otherwise waiting for a larger correction to buy more stocks.
    10 Feb, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY
    Here is a trade I SHOULD make in the challenge portfolio we have.. You are welcome to join BTW.. The "IT FIB" says....
    I SHOULD sell all of my shares in (PSEC) and buy (NUGT) because I have a feeling gold will be *managed* down with Janet speaking tomorrow..
    Short term trade for maybe a day or two.. However I will stay the course. Now in real life ???
    10 Feb, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the invite.I generally don't trade gold short term, want to hold at least a small position via (PHYS). If panic starts,ad some more.
    What real life?
    10 Feb, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    Meaning I might open a trade ...Not in the game , but in my real portfolio.For all I did not as I still see legs for gold right now..

     

    The challenge is fun. Here is the link to those who are participating..

     

    http://bit.ly/1icADUc
    10 Feb, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Do hope gold gets a couple of legs,so it can run. On the weekend we'll check out the challenge. Don't like simulations,but would be interested to put actual trades into the portfolio ( mostly swing trades ).
    BTW ,really like your idea and approach on this blog,keep up the good work!
    10 Feb, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    Thanks, I try to keep it fresh.. Have to open it up to other items besides just stocks. Politics plays a huge part yet few understand that ..
    10 Feb, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Glad I listened to the *IT FIB* and not my gut !!

     

    Gold is trading UP tonight, however lets see if we get that middle of the night *managing*.

     

    The FIB lives on >>>
    10 Feb, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DOW has crossed over the flat line 52 times already today !!

     

    Now what does that mean? Probably nothing !!
    10 Feb, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • It means the Bot's and i'm not kidding are calculating the integers.+-'s.
    10 Feb, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Perhaps waitin' for Janet
    10 Feb, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Last week we had a demonstration of manipulation 101. Tues., Wed. and Thur. gold closed pennies under $1258.00 The desperate bankers couldn't let it break and close above $1258., lest buy programs kick in.

     

    Friday it broke through and closed at $1263.30. Surprise! Last is $1274.64.

     

    Now we'll have manipulation 102 at $1320. Mustn't let gold break above $1320, or we're looking at $1400 plus.

     

    Unless China takes the last ounce of gold in London, the Comex and GLD. Then you won't believe the price. You won't be able to buy any either.
    10 Feb, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Speaking of Janet....I see quite a few who comment here did so on this article..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Feb, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • S&P unable to close above 1,800 and gold unable to close above $1,275 today. Predictions for tomorrow?

     

    1) market and gold down
    2) Yellen indicates status quo on tapering and market goes down
    3) Yellen indicates a hold on tapering or possible increase of QE and market screams upward
    4) other - say what it is

     

    I say #1
    10 Feb, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    I still think gold has legs !!

     

    Janet will not change anything drastic tomorrow . Basically her first day on the job. However I still see her with that gold necklace talking !!

     

    Above is the link to the challenge. Consider it , as we have a different chapter to list what your trades ..
    10 Feb, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • IT'
    Gold had legs when we where all still Chimps.
    10 Feb, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • IT...you like that gold necklace.
    10 Feb, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    It's a silent signal ,,,Go long on gold. When she wears those silver ear rings......you get the point ! lol
    10 Feb, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • What do I do when she starts flashing Illuminati hand signs???
    11 Feb, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Good Morning all.
    11 Feb, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    Looks like silver is the signal for today !! She will keep the signals simple..
    11 Feb, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • IT,
    Wow,do what we know.
    11 Feb, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » EASY..buy silver !!
    11 Feb, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Silvers good but (DANG) !
    13 Feb, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • With no outstanding salient points in the 10 sector structure tomorrows gain and loss will be based on fundamentals and revenue and or defensive capital preservation.
    10 Feb, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • al,
    I think Yellen will dictate market movement tomorrow. Market is unsure what to do at this juncture.
    10 Feb, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja,
    correct and the market will correlate appropriately and allocate in the most profitable sector.
    10 Feb, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • (PEG) tagged with "Better than a Treas." is up ah,that can be indicative of a defensive posture,volume 17,884.
    10 Feb, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • If Calamity Jane talks like Bubble Ben she will say both 2. and 3.
    10 Feb, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Just for the record, Yellen won't say squat tomorrow, insofar as sounding any different from announced Fed policy.
    10 Feb, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    If Yellen doesn't 't say squat, then I think the market will be down due to status quo on tapering.
    10 Feb, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T

     

    Ben already wrote what Janet has to say anyway!

     

    She won't be rocking any boats unless she slips up on a question..
    10 Feb, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • NT:

     

    The tapering story is old news, already. The hysteria was last spring and endured through much of 2013 on yield issues. It's had it's "15 minutes of fame."
    10 Feb, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Not so sure about that. See below.
    10 Feb, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Went long on (UGAS) @ 23.89 today. Plan to hold it for about 3 days.
    10 Feb, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Just sold ( UGAS ) @ 25.77. Groceries earned for the week. Will be awaiting (IWM) to reach $113 and position into (TZA) and (SPXS)
    This rally is fake,that's ok,let the big boys *manage* the markets.
    The first move is usually the wrong one!
    11 Feb, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO posted this on another blog. I found it interesting. So I am just copy and pasting it !!

     

    Ok; Here's the thesis. Tapering to me flattens the yield curve, (confounding most people), by long rates declining. This is happening already, and is turn is benefiting both Mortgage Reits Like NLY and AGNC, and also Gold type plays, as the carry is lower for gold. Hence both are responding.

     

    On the other side, as of now both monetary and fiscal policy are contractionary in trend, and that will hurt growth plays. Also notice all my shorts are broken charts, missed EPS or guidance. GS looks particularly sick, sitting on the 200 day and cannot rally. Bad sign.
    IWM has and will lag, as it is a growth index and policy is now contractionary. Yes Yes, rates will be at zero forever, bla bla bla.

     

    Tapering is not tightening. Well yes it is.

     

    Markets look forward, not presently. Now if Yellen triples QE tommorrow morning, I guess I'm wrong! But I am listening to both the IWM and long bond, and they both say slowing ahead. And Gold looks like a major rally ahead. Yes Yes, world is ending, get the canned goods. No -- I don't think so. But perhaps a powerful countertrend rally in a beaten down sector -- Gold miners.
    10 Feb, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Let's see the speech at 8.30 am !!

     

    People are waiting on line for front row seats !!
    10 Feb, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack was right about Yellen saying nothing new. I still say we'll be down today. Correction is not over.
    11 Feb, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Mot expected her to say nothing to rattle the markets.. This is just a waste of time watching it ..
    11 Feb, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Watching that 10-year Treasury inching upward. As it climbs, tapering will end and QE will resume. Equity markets will soar to new records with this new money. Rejoice! The correction is near its end!
    11 Feb, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • OAG:

     

    In fact, what will be discovered, to the enormous surprise of some, is that tapering doesn't have much effect on anything and, by extension, that the economy was not being held up in thin air by QE. Those that have understood what QE did and what the advent of lots of excess reserves indicated will find none of this amazing.
    11 Feb, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tack, "In fact, what will be discovered, to the enormous surprise of some, is that tapering doesn't have much effect on anything..."

     

    That point could be effectively argued with regard to QE3, given the stated goals by the FED to initiate QE3. The largest reason that they gave was to use this tool to assist in a sustained improvement in the labor market.

     

    But if in fact tapering does not have much effect on anything including the economy, the logical thing would be to have one more taper right away to reduce the monthly QE by an additional $65B.
    11 Feb, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Would be hesitant to chase this rally. Very low volume.
    11 Feb, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • What QE did for sure is prevent a collapse of Banks & Gov.
    I don't trust what the Fed actually says regarding their motives. Their interest is purely to protect the big Banks& Gov.
    They are very smartly misleading the public. Masters of psychological games.
    Don't even care anymore what they say.
    Finding continuously trade setups is all that really matters to me.
    11 Feb, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting chart from last November. http://bit.ly/1aReE5l
    Mark Hulbert has an update out of this chart today and it seems to be following the course so far. QE should help defer this pending drop coming in the markets.
    11 Feb, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Wow. Market is kicking a** right now. Weak participation by the financials is reasoning for my bearish call. So much for reasoning.
    11 Feb, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Not sure what to make of this article.. But are we setting up to look just like 1929 ??

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1em...

     

    You folks decide and let me know what you think..

     

    Thanks !
    11 Feb, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • IT:

     

    Oy! Not this nonsensical baloney, again.

     

    Anyone believing such omens should retire from investing post haste, before they hurt themselves.
    11 Feb, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • I agree with Tack.
    11 Feb, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • I think it is an interesting correlation, but I do believe they are saying that this chart comparison is predicting a market collapse starting within the next 3-months. It is very hard to draw a comparison from 1929 to 2014. A whole different world and circumstances. Technical stuff all looks good until it no longer does.

     

    I still believe we will see new highs in the equity markets this year and at years end, the markets should be sitting pretty good. Shiller P/E ratio currently at 24.8. A little high, and climbing. I still think this market will eventually have 21st century issues, and not likely 1929 issues.
    11 Feb, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Anyone buying today??

     

    The punch bowl seems to be filled again..
    11 Feb, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Don't forget the mustard...
    11 Feb, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I have a buy order in for (PSEC) FOR $11 BUCKS. I read you have an order pending as well. Are you close to my price?

     

    Consider upping it but not sure what to do.. It seems to be rising away from this price..

     

    Any opinions?
    11 Feb, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    Close. I have a limit order in @ $11.15. That's my line in the sand. If it doesn't hit in a week or so, there are other fish in the sea. :)
    11 Feb, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • J:

     

    If one believes an issue has a positive outlook, and since it offers an outstanding 11.75% yield, why would one play games with limit orders, hoping it would dip 1%? And, if one believed it had a negative outlook, then buying it would make no sense at all, and if one believed it was a good issue, but overvalued, then a limit order at only 1% less would still make no sense.

     

    Just buy it.

     

    PSEC is an income engine. Quibbling over pennies is a waste of time and effort.
    11 Feb, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,

     

    It's not a race for me. :) I have until the 25th (I think) before I miss out on any income I'd get from purchasing it. I believe it will hit my buy price before then.

     

    But I get your point in re: quibbling over pennies... I missed a large profit on (F) by 2-cents once.

     

    Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong...
    11 Feb, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TACK

     

    Very good advice,,
    11 Feb, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • J:

     

    Another problem with your strategy is that high-dividend payers often run up into their ex-dividend dates, so you have the likely trend against you. Debating about whether you want to own PSEC, or not, over 11 cents seems like a silly game. One makes money on BDC's by buying good ones and sitting on them. They usually make poor trading vehicles.
    11 Feb, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,

     

    Thanks for the advice. It's not a large purchase, so I'm not worried about it all that much. Feel free to give me a healthy serving of 'I told you so' on ex-div, if I don't get my price. :)
    11 Feb, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T

     

    I just took your advice...
    11 Feb, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Dougles Kass is a fear monger,wouldn't take him seriously. Watched him proudly proclaim to be short when ( SPX ) was at 1600 and as it went higher he shorted more,then he disappeared for a while.1600 to 1850,that's gotta hurt. Now markets pull back and he comes out of the woods again. One day he'll be right.
    But would not rule it out to be more like around 1947 , the last leg down , before the 60 year secular bull market began.
    11 Feb, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    It's possible, but I have to say I agree with Tack. BUT...I do think the downward slope will look very similar some day. What happens between now and then could make a difference in how the chart looks.
    11 Feb, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gold higher amid Yellen testimony; eyes $1,300

     

    Also enjoying the Yellen testimony (and her tenure thus far) is gold, ahead another 1.2% and $10 shy of taking out $1,300 per ounce for the first time since early November.

     

    The QE exit is easier said than done, says Peter Boockvar. "I remain of the belief that just as QE helped markets in 2013, the reduced pace of it will be the headwind in 2014 which will eventually lead to a QE pause that will prove to all that the Fed is stuck in this vicious cycle of ease."

     

    "3.5%, 21%, 38%," writes Barron's Brendan Conway, tallying (in order) today's gain in the gold miners (GDX), the YTD gain in the gold miners, and the YTD gain in the highly speculative junior silver miners (SILJ).

     

    Hey, don't shoot the messenger>>>
    11 Feb, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Getting lightly toasted as I am shorting this rally. So far bulls totally in control. However my process says sell. Gold is also a rock here and treasuries not down much. All says growth slowing, and I am shorting the high growth names. We will see of course. Tapering is tightening.
    11 Feb, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    Your toaster will soon be smoking.
    11 Feb, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • We'll see Tack. If you are so sure you are welcome to take the other side of my growth shorts.... Take your pick TWTR DDD LNKD TSLA.....

     

    Or short gold here, but I would'nt recommend it.
    11 Feb, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    If you are short ultra-high go-go names, you may survive, if you can last long enough, but if you are shorting the macro market, based on tapering, then, you have made a faulty bet.

     

    For the record, I never short, and I never play go-go names.
    11 Feb, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • T:

     

    I pick my spots. I am not a perma bear, perma bull, gold bug, crash groupie . Just listening to price, with limited capital to do everything, shorting momo looks best right now. Get a big dip; I would quickly move along. Tapering may not crash the whole market but it will dent the ridiculous PE stocks, IMO.
    11 Feb, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    High flyers may hit an air pocket at any time, given their momo characteristics, but it will have utterly nothing to do with QE or tapering. QE has nothing to do with almost anything, presently, and that's why tapering, too, is a rather gratuitous exercise.

     

    As QE has been flowing almost exclusively into excess reserves, reducing or stopping it outright will have no more impact than turning off your garden hose when the swimming pool is full and water is overflowing out onto the lawn. The pool will be just as full when it's stopped.
    11 Feb, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • You know that ( about QE) I know that. Market moves on perception, not reality. Tapering then will be an excuse to revalue these high flyers with no revenue growth, like other meaningless news is often an excuse for a market move.

     

    That is why most people lose money in the market. They are looking at rationality not precpetions. Not saying thats you. If the perception that QE is all powerful will inflate PE's, that will work in reverse -- possibly!

     

    Hey I'll play long too. Caught the $75 move from 300 to 375 on ICPT, sold calls against it....I'll play both sides.
    11 Feb, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • This is an emotional buying day... not a good day to assess conditions. Yellen honeymoon. My largest short breaking down (LNKD) Others, not so good but not leaders of this advance.
    11 Feb, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • LNKD testing key $200 level. Air below to 180's
    11 Feb, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Folks

     

    I just came out of my bunker putting some finishing touches on the Suites that are going quickly..

     

    However, it seems Yellen will be printing and/or keeping rates low. So I agree with TACK about (PSEC)...Why let a few pennies get in the way.??

     

    Now will the markets follow this big day up tomorrow or give some back?

     

    Ok, gotta go buy some more canned goods.. Gold just doesn't want to slow down and I wish someone could explain this >>
    11 Feb, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Gold is tied to economic activity in large countries which have inflation or corruption problems.
    It is also being bought by various central banks to diversify from developed economy currencies without actually buying emerging market currencies as that would likely cause harmful price distortions.
    I would also think gold is related to jewelry sales and of course trend following.

     

    I think you also have to consider interest rates and carrying costs of holding gold.

     

    Just my thoughts on gold
    11 Feb, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » YAIR
    Welcome back !!

     

    Corruption problems ? Glad we don't have any of that in the States !!!
    11 Feb, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » For you gold guys !!!

     

    Royal Gold acquires gold stream on Rubicon Minerals’ Phoenix Gold project

     

    Royal Gold (RGLD +3.9%) enters into a $75M gold stream transaction with Rubicon Minerals (RBY +3.4%) that will finance a significant portion of the construction of RBY's Phoenix Gold Project in Ontario.

     

    RGLD will make advance deposit payments totaling $75M in five installments over the next 12 months toward the construction of Phoenix Gold; RBY will sell and deliver 6.3% of any gold produced from the project until 135K oz. have been delivered, and 3.15% thereafter.
    11 Feb, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Gold necklace? She did so well today that her husband should make her a pearl necklace
    11 Feb, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    Notice it was silver...?? She was dropping hints all over. QE'S aren't ready to stop. Maybe change the name, but the printing presses are going to be oiled up tonight !!
    11 Feb, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Do you know what making a pearl necklace means?
    Well than,print more,we just have to follow the tape. Let's see where the market ends up this week.
    Of course go long silver. Did not see the testimony though.
    11 Feb, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • lol

     

    That's all.
    11 Feb, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    Gotta keep it clean or it will get spoofed !! lol
    11 Feb, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Well I think its subtle enough to qualify as clean. You didn't get the first time and I'm sure she's got wet wipes.
    If it was crossing the line,apologies.
    11 Feb, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • JBT
    Really like your healthcare article and absolutely agree.
    Have not taken allopathic drugs in many years,prefer homeopathic instead. It blows me away when seeing in the adds all these side effects of those drugs and people take them anyways.
    Alleviate flu symptoms and damage your liver at the same time? Strange
    11 Feb, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    That blog is run by JW who posts here.. Feel free to leave comments on it !
    11 Feb, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Who is JW?
    11 Feb, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Agree, to a point. Our son had JRA in one joint, and he had to receive Enbrel (horrible medication administration-wise, and it has a very scary list of potential side-effects (including death!)). It worked, though, and his JRA is technically "in remission".

     

    They DO actually make some good drugs, despite possible side effects. Sometimes it's worth the risk.
    11 Feb, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • There where no alternative treatments available?
    11 Feb, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Yes. Methotrexate (failed). Other than that, Humira, Remicade, Rituxin and Simponi. All scary biologics (as is Enbrel).

     

    Due to his age at the time, Enbrel was the least onerous of the bunch after the Methotrexate.

     

    There are no homeopathic remedies I have heard or read about for JRA.
    11 Feb, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry, JW is John Wilson who posts here. That is his blog so he is the expert on whatever he writes. I just put other blogs on my site to help others get exposure if they are a member of this club!!
    11 Feb, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Oh, I got it...Just played dumb to it so that SA would not notice it !!

     

    No apology needed...
    11 Feb, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Thank's
    11 Feb, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So how do the markets react tomorrow?

     

    1) Give back some

     

    2) Gold retreats

     

    3) Upwards we go

     

    Multiple answers are fine...
    11 Feb, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Well, since I recently purchased (LNCO), it will continue to plummet, whether the market is up, down or sideways...
    11 Feb, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • I have to answer ???? Days like today are an inverse to me of a big selloff. Panic to get long. Difficult to read.
    11 Feb, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • How about staying flat and sell to the chasers that don't want to miss out?
    This rally did not have the same volume strength as the previous ones,besides the $NYMO is moving too fast up.(indicating almost overbought). However it could last for a few days.
    11 Feb, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • I bought (TTP) and (BWG) today. What JBT said - pipeline mlps will drop and we can expect a couple of emerging market countries to default on their debt.
    11 Feb, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    Added to my (PSEC) exposure.. Still not convinced that a market downturn isn't around the corner..

     

    But Janet will keep the spigots on for sure ..Never thought she would do anything else..
    11 Feb, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • User-

     

    I do believe the money I am currently trading with is cursed. It is destined to be slowly (or quickly?) eroded to zero.
    11 Feb, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • JBT,

     

    Exactly. It can't be any other way. Just wait until I eventually become interested in buying PMs - a lot of people here will be grumpy about that!
    11 Feb, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    " Just wait until I eventually become interested in buying PMs "

     

    I am heading to my coin dealer in the morning ! Gotta dig this stuff up. Now where did I hide it ?
    11 Feb, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    Have been giving some thought to psec again. Even enough that I replied to an author who thought I was you on my instablog! Still would like to buy below $11, but more importantly, I don't know how to evaluate bdcs like I do other investments. But, rest assured, if I'm not buying into it and since you did it will surely hit $12.50. And then when I announce my interest, you should sell.
    11 Feb, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • IT has me to thank for the bump in (PSEC) today, as I had an open order in to buy.

     

    I should hire myself out for my uncanny abilities to sway individual stocks...
    11 Feb, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I was hoping for $11 bucks...I opened a new ROTH account and the check needed on day to clear. That day it was below $11 bucks. I think it was the same price as I have on the challenge.

     

    But nooooo, I don't buy it the next day. I just watch it gain a few pennies each day. Hoping for a pullback.

     

    But I know deep down I am buying it for the dividend, and not the stock appreciating. So TACK was right. Just buy the damn thing !
    11 Feb, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    "Even enough that I replied to an author who thought I was you on my instablog! "

     

    You as handsome as me ? Anyway you getting that ice storm yet ?
    11 Feb, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    I'm dealing with a small purchase where pennies matter as far as percentage of cost to commission. I'm fine with buying ex-div to keep that percentage below what I consider acceptable. The money can also sit until I have enough to buy something else.

     

    Like I tried to tell Tack - I'm dealing with a few years as a horizon, not next week, or next month...
    11 Feb, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    Not sure what market you're looking at, but wasn't the SPX.

     

    Today had very average volume and a slow steady uptrend all day long. No signs of buying panic anywhere. What we do have, though, is the shorts, who bet on the correction, getting squeezed out of their positions.
    11 Feb, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Me too, that is why a few pennies did not matter. I want the dividend ASAP to start..

     

    Over 5 years it won't matter I hope ..
    11 Feb, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • IT:

     

    Observation:

     

    I judge from your, and some others', comments a disproportionate fear of negative price moves. Maybe, that's why there is so much quibbling over pennies and the setting of lower limit-price buy orders, i.e., it's an excuse not to pull the trigger.
    .
    Yet, you all seem to want income. Why not consider a variety of preferred shares, where the downside risks are less, the security greater and the possibility of a dividend cut nil?
    11 Feb, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,

     

    In this case, maybe because I'm looking to purchase 65 shares of (PSEC). That is not the amount of funds I would spread around to a variety of preferred shares.

     

    If I had a couple grand, I'd just stick it in a large cap blue chip and be done with it.

     

    For me, it's picking nits, and purely psychological. I'm okay with that money sitting in my account for a month or two until I have more to "play" with.
    11 Feb, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T
    I really don't understand preferred shares, or how you buy them. I would be willing to understand how they work.
    Less downside risk, and dividend cuts nil sound like a great plan. So if you don't mind could you explain it some and give some symbols so that I can understand it better.
    I would appreciate it as I am sure other would to !

     

    Then one must know how to pick a preferred stock that doesn't drop in value. Some of us don't have your years of experience...

     

    http://bit.ly/1eOLtAO
    Thanks !
    11 Feb, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • And what would you attribute today's large move to, the catalyst for either the buying or the short covering?

     

    Remember -- any QE expectation is not a valid answer, as you correctly indicated, it all goes into excess reserves.

     

    By that measure, even if today Yellen decided to double monthly QE, that would be irrelevant to the market.
    11 Feb, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    Snowed until about 2pm. Temp close to 40 so it didn't stick. Tomorrow supposed to be colder so if it snows overnight it will stick. Managed to buy breakfast sausage for $1/lb so things are going okay!

     

    Yes, I am beautiful, no matter what they say...

     

    I like Tack's idea - preferreds can be good. If he doesn't beat me writing this, these are two great resources:

     

    http://bit.ly/1diaSkK

     

    http://bit.ly/T5zbpY

     

    The second of which you have to register for, but is free (if you make some money off of the info you should give a contribution though - I think that's a one-guy outfit doing the research)

     

    It's a good idea to read the prospectus of any preferred you're interested in. Buying under par is always a good idea. If the company pays a dividend on the common stock, even better. I don't pay too much attention to ratings.

     

    Various reits, bdcs, mlps ect. that Have to pay out most of their earnings as dividends are pretty good bets. The preferred dividend must be paid before the common stock dividend is.

     

    One that I could recommend and would buy into if I didn't already have a max position is OXLCO. Unlike a lot of preferreds it's a mandatory redeemable in 2013. CEF preferred, which the NAV of the cef is doing just fine. Monthly pay. 8% market yield currently.

     

    Preferreds trade on the exchanges like any other stock. They are tricky as the symbols are not universal - OXLCO does not show up as a ticker on SA or marketwatch. It does on barchart. I own RSO.B in my taxable account. It shows up as RSO.PB on marketwatch and RSO-B in my Vanguard account.
    11 Feb, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • IT:

     

    The link you provided gives you the basics. Many common stocks also have preferred issues, which usually are labelled with letter series, e.g., RSO, RSO-A, RSO-B, etc. All preferred stocks can be researched at http://bit.ly/qWc98b. You buy them like any other stock.

     

    The benefit of preferred stocks is that:

     

    a) dividends cannot be cut
    b) preferred dividends must be paid in full before any common dividends paid
    c) preferred dividends cannot be in arrears if any new preferred or common shares are to be issued
    d) if the issue is cumulative (most are), any suspended dividends must be paid in full before any new issues are made or common dividends paid
    e) in any bankruptcy, claims of preferred rank ahead of common
    11 Feb, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • To add maybe no panic buying, but major chasing and a fear of being left behind.
    11 Feb, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • M:
    You're just making it up, now.
    .
    Today showed no unusual characteristics with either volume or price movements. The uptrend was gradual all day, just like the downtrend was last week, when the shorts were adding. Only, now, the process has reversed, and shorts were unwinding.
    .
    The only fear, if any, I detect is from the doom meisters, who have been wrong, yet again.
    11 Feb, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Who was it calling for a 70% decline in the S&P?

     

    Curious as to if they still think that's in the cards...
    11 Feb, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » T

     

    But the share price can drop after you buy it , correct ??
    11 Feb, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • J:

     

    They quietly disappear, as soon as the volatility dissipates. Look for them, again, on the next -200+ day.
    11 Feb, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • So....I'll ask again. What was the catalyst for today's strong rally?
    11 Feb, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    I would think so. Otherwise I would mortgage our house and go all in. :)
    11 Feb, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    Today was just a continuation of the last five, nothing special. Yesterday's close was right at the 5-day EMA, so, as soon as it became obvious that we were crossing above that, the shorts started closing their bets.
    11 Feb, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • I see. And how do you judge what is short covering, from the long side chasing of fund managers, or retail buying on margin to get long?
    11 Feb, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    Mostly because short-term traders pay loads of attention to the 50-day EMA. They got all excited about breaking below that, so they have to be equally unexcited about its reversal.

     

    The "chasing" you imagine seems to me to be more of a bias than anything exhibited by the behavior today. Volume, especially, wasn't suggestive of any broad "chasing."
    11 Feb, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • In your mind, what was the fundamental reason? I mean it was a big move. Nothing special -- Dow up 200.
    11 Feb, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • It was special to me... ;)
    11 Feb, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    Look at the five-day chart: http://tinyurl.com/k4v...

     

    Today was nothing extraordinary.

     

    If you insist otherwise, then, you'll have to derive your own reasons.
    11 Feb, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • So long side traders -- don't watch the major MA's? You do realize -- the overwhelming majority of traders, and funds, never go short.

     

    Also -- many now are short term -- even the ones running billions. Sorry I don't buy the "short covering" basis for most of today.
    11 Feb, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    OK, it was frantic fund managers and retail guys, loading up on margin, "chasing" away. Feel better, now?
    11 Feb, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Not necessarily. I just find it amusing you or anyone can immediately distinguish short covering from long side exposure, with certainty. That's a talent I don't have.
    11 Feb, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • M:
    It's just that "investors" don't wet their pants when 50-day EMA's get passed in one direction or the other, but "traders" do. So, you asked what caused the continued uptrend, and I gave you an opinion. If you wish to reject that, as illogical, and see it as euphoric long-side guys on a buying binge, then, what's left to be said?
    .
    We simply have different views, only, in my opinion, the charts and logic support mine more than yours. You may, however, place your bets according to your own beliefs.
    11 Feb, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • There are a lot more "traders" in the market than "investors", compared to historically. Hence the unusual hand wringing the recent minor decline brought. Hey, different styles, no worries.
    11 Feb, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • I was looking for your view on the fundamental trigger. Yellen said nothing new.
    11 Feb, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • M:
    I don't think there was any new fundamental trigger. Perhaps, relief that Yellen didn't say something unexpected, although the chances of that were less than being hit by an asteroid.
    11 Feb, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • I did not do any hand-wringing during the down trend... I actually added to positions when the market was turning to pewp.

     

    Slow and steady wins the race. ;)
    11 Feb, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO

     

    So if the markets have a big sell off will the metals get dragged down with it ?
    11 Feb, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Hard to say but is rarely the case unless it gets really disorderly
    11 Feb, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO

     

    I believe you were interested in this company. After you review it would you mind commenting on it ?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks.
    11 Feb, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • I am long PG and am very high on the company for the reasons outlined.
    11 Feb, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO

     

    So you expect it to be worth more then $2.50 per share?
    11 Feb, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • I have no idea. Those questions really have no meaning, as it is largely a market sentiment vote, like if amazon is worth 50 or 400. So many factors. Hence one junior should be a small allocation.
    11 Feb, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • We all have bias. I suspect it makes many bulls feel more secure on a day like today, believing there is massive short exposure in the SPX, that is just beginning to be unwound. Whatever, markets do that, hurt the most people. I prefer to think of a flat squeeze is much more often the case -- folks chasing to add long exposure. There simply is not that many shorts out there anymore.
    11 Feb, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    As bbro posted yesterday, open options positions indicate an 80/20 weighting that the lows for 2014 have not been reached. That sure doesn't sound like any paucity of shorts.
    11 Feb, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • It's relatively insignificant.

     

    As I've said, I am not particularly bearish on the SPX or Dow here. More focused on Momo stocks that have already missed estimates or guidance. Sorry, no 1929 charts from me.
    So far, I'm doing fine. I bought on the dip, Shorted volatility, and now a 90 point SPX move up, I'm shorting those momo's. I buy panic, love to buy when everyone is freaking out.
    11 Feb, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO
    Where do you see people freaking out ? I don't understand that point.. I believe you are calling for a correction if I understand you correctly. Then I think people will freak out.
    But I now believe that the small correction is over. Thought I would never say that as I expected a larger one..
    However I do not have the experience you guys have, I learn as I go >>
    Besides in now invest the opposite of JBT !!! LOL
    11 Feb, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    That would have been a bad trade on my adds to (XOM) and (LMT). I mentioned those when the situation looked dire.

     

    I will be adding to those again next week, and to (COP) on or about the 22nd.
    11 Feb, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Good luck JBT...

     

    I am starting to accept you don't fight the fed..
    11 Feb, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • IT,

     

    Those three stocks are added to automatically. (XOM) and (LMT) on or shortly after the 1st and 15th, and (COP) on or shortly after the 22nd.

     

    All three have worked out well. Makes it easy to invest. I don't go through second-guessing or trying to pick buy points that way.
    11 Feb, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It looks like this market now has a ways to go...That little 5% sell off has happened 15 times I believe since 2009..

     

    I could be off some on the exact number. But it isn't abnormal for it to happen..
    11 Feb, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • IT, at the very lows, there was a bit of that, I bought then and shorted volatility. It's a judgement call, proceed with caution.

     

    I recommend watching the IWM -- russel -- for leadership cues during this period.

     

    The balance says you are likely correct though.
    11 Feb, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » An article from Tom Luongo on gold...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Feb, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • I hope they trot out another scary chart or two tomorrow... That worked out nicely today.
    11 Feb, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Any opinions on passive investing ? Got plenty of comments.. Not sure what to make of this ..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks!
    11 Feb, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • For most people passive investing is a better idea...
    But what he is saying is complete non-sense, do you really believe stock picking is the only endeavor in all of humanity where skill and hardwork cannot produce outsized returns,

     

    Read my discussion with the same author here
    http://seekingalpha.co... ... after he realized he was wrong and didn't even know the definition of "beta" he just forgot to reply.

     

    12 Feb, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • Passive is best unless you a portfolio challenger we will handle it just stay behind the safety barrier we don't want anyone to get hurt.
    12 Feb, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • Yesterday around 5am ET SPX futures marked its high overnight,pulled back and shortly before markets opened, went up.
    Today's action so far is similar.
    12 Feb, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • However, still believe , markets will reach a lower level ,maybe 1650 on SPX,in order to draw in those that have been waiting for that event. This rally feels to me more like a short squeeze.
    Today i'll be looking for an entry in (TZA),in case it goes the other way, will be placing a stop buy order on (TNA) at around $74.50 at the same time.
    12 Feb, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Went long (TZA) @17.67
    12 Feb, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Took profits on some long gold exposure this morning, on the weaker bond market. Very, very short high growth.
    12 Feb, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Even if you are really bullish -- trust me this is a really, really dangerous spot to put much risk on here. Be careful...
    12 Feb, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • I agree Macro. SDRL is getting it's butt kicked today. I guess Barron's had an article about the dividend being shaky. I was looking right at it when it hit 35.32, but didn't pull the trigger. I'm with Macro and tommy that better buying opportunities are coming.

     

    IT...Avi recommended tighter stops in GLD. Be careful with gold. Heck, be careful with everything.
    12 Feb, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    I heard that badass charles hinton is looking for you. Says he has a "shore" to settle with you and he's bringing his sea shells!! LMAO

     

    That guy's a real trip!
    12 Feb, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • If you give him a couple rebuttals he'll eventually give a link that contradicts his own posts. He's out there for sure.
    12 Feb, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • The question of the week by you may have sent him into the stratosphere .
    " How many sea shells do you want for your house? "
    12 Feb, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • We are starting to roll over here.
    12 Feb, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Is that a comment about the market or gold?
    12 Feb, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Both, actually. (referring to gold stocks) I sold my GDXJ this morning, due to higher bond yields. The EM's also look like a possible false breakout.

     

    I seriously think we have a number of potential head and shoulders patterns forming in the indexes. We'll see.
    12 Feb, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • M:

     

    I look at the one-year SPX chart and see the exact same pattern we have now on four previous occasions. More or less meaningless as an indicator.
    12 Feb, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Look at the IWM, if you care to.
    12 Feb, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Macro
    ----
    Why sell GDXJ? The trend is up now.
    -----
    Here what gold is doing now, from my chapter 51 Feb 8 comment on it.
    -----
    http://bit.ly/1nuWcQh
    12 Feb, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • It's overbought, and I expect another correction. I sold 41.60, it's below 40. The short side looks awesome to me right now. See LNKD?
    12 Feb, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Macro
    Yes,It is overbought, but don't expect to see much lower than $38.

     

    This is not were I would be shorting it or buying (DUST) though we may be a small counter-trend pull back. (GDX), (GDXJ) did get way ahead of the metal itself.
    12 Feb, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    I am not fond of AVI'S method to be honest. He always paints a few scenarios and then one of them hit he yells" I NALED IT !"

     

    Just visited another blog where we had one poster who consistently insulted other's points of view here. I thank everyone who disagrees to make their argument. An investor learns more when not insulted..

     

    I threw out an old article for discussion on the 1929 charts, Tack made a comment, and it was used for a discussion piece. Yet he had to throw in a dig and mention our blog, not by name though.

     

    Called the post unintelligent..

     

    Glad the insulting day's, the gloom and doom comments, and others derogatory comment are gone.. One poster almost took down thisblog as I received so many PM'S it was crazy..

     

    Time to move on as we have upgraded since then..Thanks !!
    12 Feb, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Some people miss the point and are stuck in their egocentric believes.
    When i think to know it all,reality kicks me in the butt really hard.
    There is certainly merit in being humble. Overconfidence gets one in trouble. Heck even Buffet displaces occasionally humbleness.
    Like this blog,live is about growing and learning,don't see that very unintelligent ,but insulting someone fits the bill.
    Investors and traders always should contemplate the possibility of being wrong.
    12 Feb, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Always say watch the last hour for the real action...
    12 Feb, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Go (DANG) Go ! maybe the Chinese # actually have merit !
    12 Feb, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • IT
    Did you see the last 10 minutes where about to head down,and al of a sudden someone jumped in and pumped it up! On the (SPY) volume went up about 10 mil. Not uncommon,but made a close in the green.
    12 Feb, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Forget the last hour. A preferred that I sold off 80% of yesterday is currently listed as closing for a 126% gain for today. I've checked the three sites that I use and they all list the same thing.

     

    Something is being reported incorrectly or somebody really screwed up putting in a limit order to buy. I seriously doubt my humble limit sell order for a 10% gain will be executed, but for tonight, I will enjoy having a 126% gain in one position on a fixed income play.
    12 Feb, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » USER

     

    You buying lunch for all.??

     

    Congrads on the killing !!
    12 Feb, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Only a killing if my order got executed! I still think something's fishy with all of this.
    13 Feb, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • Can't you log in to your brokerage and check the status?
    13 Feb, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • "Something is being reported incorrectly ..."

     

    Bingo.
    13 Feb, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, but the cheapie one I use doesn't show yay or nay on it. I'm not counting on anything.
    13 Feb, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    Not sure it really means that much. However gold is still holding steady as well...
    12 Feb, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • You're right,it probably doesn't. Is Gold about to cross 1300 ?
    12 Feb, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » TOMMY

     

    I am in the camp saying it does !
    12 Feb, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • I got my (SDRL) limit order filled today. Bought 100 at 35.35 which was .10 off the bottom. The price actually spiked down to allow me to buy in and then kindly when up after my order was filled. If I had been actively watching it I would have for sure pulled the trigger at a much higher price.

     

    Yield: 10.3%

     

    http://yhoo.it/1cOdK8J;range=5d;compare=;ind...
    12 Feb, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • JW - thanks for bringing (MORL) to my attention. Ended up putting in a small order after your instablog. It's done nothing but move up since then. Most of my REITs have steadily risen since the mid 2013 sell off too. Anymore thoughts on them?
    12 Feb, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Don't forget collecting the 24% current annual yield too on (MORL) as it rebounds. Thanks for reading the instablog.
    -----
    Short term, these mREITS has gone up about 10% since Dec 30, -- and I expect a pause now. So I wouldn't buy more at this point. (REM) the ETF of mREITs is just now hitting its 200 day MA. I expect some pull-back and a pause before the next run up which will take the mREITS up above the 200 day MA into a confirmed uptrend,
    http://yhoo.it/1f1Savu;range=6m;compare=;ind...
    I will write more a little later in another instablog.
    12 Feb, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • JW,
    You did better than you thought. The low was 35.32. I was looking at it when it hit. I think a better opportunity may present itself soon in a market selloff.
    12 Feb, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW

     

    How do the MREIT'S react if the markets correct ? Do they get hammered , or do they usually move with interest rates?

     

    Thanks, and this is open to anyone !!
    12 Feb, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • mREITS are trash run for the benefit of management anyone who thinks buying this is more then speculating on interest rates is going to have a bad time.
    13 Feb, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JW

     

    You caught a falling knife. Now you just have to be concerned about the dividend that is shaky ...Read that somewhere...
    12 Feb, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • IT, read that article too. Wonder if this was a factor in the downside today?
    12 Feb, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Macro
    Do you have a list of stocks that you think are good shorts? I see what you mean by (LNKD) that you mention above. It will have a death cross completing soon.
    -----
    We don't have anyone giving good short ideas here on IT for all Commodities. Maybe you could be the resident short specialist. Show us an inflated high flier that's ready to have the air let out.
    12 Feb, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, you have to take the risk. They thought that a year ago, but the dividend went up instead. 10% + yld is great if the dividend is sustained. And what if it goes up from here. Double digit gains.
    12 Feb, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    Had to be !!
    12 Feb, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • JW
    You might be interested in (DGAZ)
    13 Feb, 04:07 AM Reply Like
  • Good Morning
    13 Feb, 04:17 AM Reply Like
  • JW...I've been reading through the comments from the article IT and I were mentioning. The more I read them the more it looks like there is an upside to (SDRL) and maybe the dividend is safe. I'm still sitting steady as I don't fund my account again until next week.
    13 Feb, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Shorting. I suspect some here think it inherently evil and less moral than buying shares. Funny how that works. You investors should be happy for us who short. Because when it gets really disorderly again -- I know I know this bull market will Never end, we will rise 30% every year on 5% profit growth --- the shorts will be the only ones bidding for stock as the longs run for cover.

     

    . It's ok. Just label any of us who short a broken stock like linkdin, as doom and gloomers hoping for the end of the world. Whatever works. Just remember -- tapering is tightening just as QE was loosening. Don't fight the Fed, and watch what they do, not the jawboning.
    12 Feb, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO

     

    Most on this blog have no problem with the thought of a market correction, so short away and make some money !!

     

    We even think we might see a 10% pullback too !

     

    But were labeled doom and gloomer's because some of us believe in a % of our portfolio should be in metals..
    12 Feb, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • lol. You obsess over metals...

     

    Liking PM's doesn't get anyone the label of doom & gloomer... When people are always calling for a crash, particularly a 70% retracement, then yeah, that gets the doom & gloom label.
    12 Feb, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » JBT...I never said 70% .MAYBE 50% ??? lol

     

    Gonna get another foot of snow tomorrow so I think I will do an inventory of my metals.. Might shine em up too !!
    12 Feb, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » IS THE LIKE BUTTON WORKING FOR EVERYONE ? Mine was finally fixed. Now if I only can get some to use it ...lol..

     

    Boy, we have great info passed around here, need to reward those posters...
    12 Feb, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Count me as a doom and gloomer. I TRULY hope I'm wrong, but I think we'll go as low as before, if not lower.

     

    IT, do you really have a bunker? I'm new to this blog and don't know if that's a running joke or for real.
    12 Feb, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja

     

    Here is a comment I had Feb 1 in chapter 49 regarding a very long term market topping process that a good chance of completing this fall. If you are a gloom and doomer and you want something to hope you are wrong about, read the comment. Link to comment:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Feb, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » NINJA

     

    Nah, it's a running joke.. But I do own guns ! Have for 45 years ...Member of the NRA as well.. Hunted before my bad car accident....
    13 Feb, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Getting wacked with about a foot of snow in upstate NY...So looks like it's a day inside..

     

    Gold is within a hair of breaking $1300 !!
    13 Feb, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Getting whacked in CT already have snow blown twice in an hour.
    13 Feb, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Snow have you stuck inside? Sounds like a great opportunity to do some insider trading today.
    13 Feb, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Weather report and Radar never jive.
    13 Feb, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Nope, just doing inventory on my metals. Time to reorg the safe !!
    13 Feb, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Inventory? Hmm. You must have been reading the latest from R. Wagner & R. Cox, (nothing like a little r&r).

     

    More compelling evidence of sharp price drop in gold coming soon, likely even south of $1,000!!

     

    So when I hear that you are taking inventory I would suspect you are preparing to sell before the drop?
    13 Feb, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • IT, you don't have your metals stored at the Fed?
    13 Feb, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » CWINN

     

    The FED has a storage facility ?

     

    OAG

     

    Nope, unlike Ft Knox I like to keep an updated inventory list..

     

    Plus I do like to look at my collectibles from time to time.. Otherwise the wife will give me a HONEY DO list !!

     

    I just hate to have to go down those 2 stories in the bunker ..
    13 Feb, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I see Greece has finally caught up to the USA as far as unemployment goes.. I use the real numbers, not what is fed to us !
    13 Feb, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gold breaks $1300 for those who care !!
    13 Feb, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • I do but i'm not their yet Bro,thumbs up !
    13 Feb, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Wrong sectors are leading this meltup. Treasuries, gold on the highs. Goldman looks terrible. I'm standing pat here, short growth stocks
    13 Feb, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MACRO

     

    What type of correction are you looking for?
    13 Feb, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Darn,totally missed that there was a long weekend coming up.
    That's what you get when you're livin in an isolated area and also don't have a TV!
    Sell of is not goin to happen this week
    13 Feb, 03:07 PM Reply Like