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Interesting Times
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I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time... More
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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! CHAPTER 4......
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  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My Rankings, Username, Cash, Balance, Market Value, Initial Portfolio, Value Current Portfolio Value Return

     

    1 OldWarrior 2,384.31 105,964.91 100,000.00 108,349.22 8.35%
    2 justin 17,795.58 87,337.00 100,000.00 105,132.58 5.13%
    3 cbowman -394.80 104,399.50 100,000.00 104,004.70 4.00%
    4 JohnBinTN 77.33 103,239.70 100,000.00 103,317.03 3.32%
    5 MadcapLaughs 6,271.98 96,856.40 100,000.00 103,128.38 3.13%
    6 Interesting 9,752.91 92,403.00 100,000.00 102,155.91 2.16%
    7 crademan 12.79 102,095.07 100,000.00 102,107.86 2.11%
    8 User7 35.19 101,817.62 100,000.00 101,852.81 1.85%
    9 Carl2014 7,539.66 93,729.00 100,000.00 101,268.66 1.27%
    10 EconomicAnalyst 69,051.52 32,012.09 100,000.00 101,063.61 1.06%
    11 Cwinn 13,305.41 99,414.00 100,000.00 100,923.41 0.92%
    12 nocnurzfred 39.77 100,484.00 100,000.00 100,523.77 0.52%
    13 JohnWilson 91,031.12 9,086.00 100,000.00 100,117.12 0.12%
    14 deercreekvols 13,543.74 84,862.50 100,000.00 98,406.24 -1.59%
    15 kanwar99 9,051.94 192,676.00 100,000.00 91,057.94 -8.94%

     

    15 AND GROWING !! LOOK AT THOSE CHANGES AT THE TOP !
    19 Aug 2014, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JANET GETTING READY TO TALK. WHICH WAY WILL THE MARKETS GO ??
    20 Aug 2014, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) reports comparable-store sales increased 4.4% in Q2.
    Gross margin rate +20 bps to 34.55%.
    SG&A expense ratio -40 bps to 21.33%.
    Merchandise inventory +2.3% to $9.315B.
    Guidance: FY14 sales growth of 4.5% is forecast. Comp sales are expected to rise 3.5%, a level which is below prior guidance.
    LOW -4.2% premarket

     

    after going through a home renovation project I must admit I was very unsatisfied with the quality of product from them. Although I was able to negotiate a decent discount my kitchen counter should not have taken 3 months for them to get it right .....Just the quartz counter top.

     

    Their supplier was less then par. Next time we will try Home Depot. Even the manager of Lowe's was blowing smoke up my you know what. How he was going to eventually make me happy at the end.

     

    It took me getting Corp. involved before I could smile !! Never again, although looking back financially it was worth the wait!

     

    ANY ONE ELSE HAVE ISSUE WITH EITHER ??
    20 Aug 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4005) | Send Message
     
    I like the Lowe's by us, despite some FU's they've done with a few orders. Like, they called to tell me our shower surround was in and ready for pickup, but when we got there, they couldn't find it and asked if maybe we had picked it up already... :) A shower surround is bigger than a breadbox, so, no, we didn't pick it up and then forget we picked it up. :)

     

    Their lumber sucks. If you buy lumber there, go to the store and pick it out piece by piece. Even studs. I think they get their pine from the warped, crooked forest. ;)
    21 Aug 2014, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Word has it you and the misses like that breadbox shower..:) Just sayin >>>
    21 Aug 2014, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FOMC minutes: Labor market improvement can't be ignored

     

    Many members say a range of labor market indicators had improved more in recent months than they had earlier anticipated, according to the minutes of the late July FOMC meeting. "The characterization of labor market underutilization might have to change before long, particularly if progress in the labor market continued to be faster than anticipated."

     

    The committee voted 9-1 to maintain the taper and reiterate its commitment to keep rates lower than normal for longer. Dissenting was Philadelphia Fed boss Charles Plosser, who argued the others are underplaying the improvement in the labor market and the march of inflation towards the 2% target.

     

    LABOR MARKET IMPROVING THAT MUCH ? GOOD NEWS !! <yawn>
    20 Aug 2014, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Meanwhile gold is falling off a cliff with silver. Might be a buying opportunity !! I am sure the hole has some input in this. Have to make it look like the world has no issues !!

     

    Thoughts??
    21 Aug 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Looks like I have to stop guessing on a correction by playing (NYSEARCA:TZA) and just go with the flow. This bull market doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon.

     

    My RFP is doing fine, maybe too conservative..

     

    Still looking for some value plays. Any suggestions . I am all ears !!
    21 Aug 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IS VANGUARD THE WAY TO GO ?? MANY FEEL SO..

     

    Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1ne56BY
    21 Aug 2014, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    With regard to inflation, the minutes noted that inflation has moved higher in recent months but is still running below the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

     

    The Fed has said it won’t consider raising interest rates until inflation hits a range of 1.7%-2% and the unemployment rate falls to 5.2%-5.6%. down from its current 6.1% level.

     

    http://fxn.ws/VGCPw4
    21 Aug 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WILL JANET BLOW UP THE MARKETS SOMEHOW TOMORROW BEING TOO HAWKISH ??

     

    Seems we should be ready to roll on our own. So why not free up the interest rates and let the markets react accordingly?

     

    Or is the economy still a stack of cards that needs life support? All I read is positive reports. Oh, I forgot , we have mid term ELECTIONS within a few months!!

     

    Sorry, but I am too nervous to invest a significant amount of money right now . I may be wrong , but I still smell something fishy.

     

    HAPPY FOR THOSE RIDING THIS WAVE. But I got off a year ago . Rather be early then sitting there trying to decide in a down market whether to fold em or hold em..

     

    Don't have many years left to make up for a bad mistake.. So my question is.... IS THIS A BULL MARKET OR IS CAUTION SUGGESTED ?

     

    Hope some respond as I am getting tired of talking to myself:)
    21 Aug 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    http://bit.ly/1nfZS8C

     

    That's Vanguard's total stock market etf for the US. If it doesn't show it, register for that site (it's free) and pull up a chart for VTI. Lengthen it out to where it starts in 2007. Then overlay a 300 day moving average.

     

    The price of that etf hasn't gone below that moving average in a while, since sometime in 2012. And that moving average is still going up. There may be a correction coming this fall, but I thought that last year and was wrong. But I think that things will stay bullish for a while yet, even with a correction. I'll get worried if the price of VTI drops below that moving average.
    21 Aug 2014, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » USER

     

    Thanks.. I use to own this mutual fund a few years ago. However as I always say I have no idea how to do charts. I look at numbers to decide if I like a fund or not.

     

    Having said that I did the overlay and it always seems to be above that average. So I guess then it's a good fund to own..
    21 Aug 2014, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    No hoo-doo to the chart! You're just looking at a long term trend with the 300 day moving average. It's up and it keeps going up. A moving average just helps filter out the day to day price jumps and drops. I think it's a good fund to own currently - that will change at some point.

     

    When the price drops below that moving average, I'll sell the fund and move money into something that's still trending up.

     

    Here's the article that originally got me interested in this approach:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    It's not just for this fund - it's for any broad index fund.
    21 Aug 2014, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOES THIS MAKES SENSE ??

     

    What If The Fed Has Created A Bubble?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    23 Aug 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    Mutual Funds are probably the worst investment vehicle going. You are paying someone else 1-2% win or lose, and very few even beat the S&P. You can do better by just buying the S&P via (NYSEARCA:VOO) and you can get in or out during the day at need, rather than be stuck in for 6 months minimum, and be forced to take "end-of-day" price. Nothing is more painful than watching your investment drop up to 5% during the day and be helpless to stop it.
    Unless you think this Bull Market will never correct, don't buy Mutual Fund BS.
    If you have even just 3 hours a week, you can learn how to DIY (Do It Yourself) investing ,the basics take about 5-6 hours. Then you can buy picked lists like Cabot Top Ten, Zacks, Motley Fool, or my favorite, Blockdesk.com. Put 1-2K in each of 4-6 stocks/month until you build up a decent sized portfolio, and let your money do your work, instead of hiring some Idiot who gets his % whether he makes you money or loses yours. He gets his cut either way.
    22 Aug 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    OW, Agreed. (NYSEARCA:VOO) is a better choice than a managed mutual fund and this ETF is also better than the index mutual fund as well. You can move in/out of the ETF much faster than waiting on buying/selling a mutual fund. I have seen past studies showing the un-managed index funds consistently outperforming managed funds over most time periods. Paying fund managers to under perform against an index is a waste of money.

     

    Good advice on your DIY plan to buy/sell stocks too.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    OW and OAG,

     

    Agree with both of you (assuming you were addressing me). VTI is the etf equivalent for VTSMX. Good thing is that they both have low fees. The only reason I'm interested in VTSMX (and a couple of other Vanguard funds) is it's the best of a bad lot available for me to pick in my 401k.

     

    Now a cef on the other hand - there is often a discrepancy between the market value and the value of the fund. Sometimes that can be taken advantage of, even after the fees the managers charge.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OAG. Someone finally "Gets It".
    The problem with working for either Hourly or even on Commission is that you are limited by the number of hours you can drive yourself each week to do your job, and/or the number of sales you can close. Money at work has no such restrictions. Well chosen investments are at work 24/7 and continue to generate income with only minimal monitoring. When they stop, you "Fire Them". You cannot get out of Mutual Funds in such a manner. You have to suffer through the whole day.
    Remember back in 2008 when the House killed the first vote on the TARP program, and all those people in Mutual Funds had to just watch their life savings evaporate until the market closed hours later down like 700 points. The worst part was even after such heavy losses that people suffered through, they still knew that they were going to be paying their Fund Manager his/her % atop the Loss. I was so glad to have gotten out of the one MF that I ever owned (OAKIX) <I believe it was> months before that.
    Another 9/11 incident, Presidential Assassination, or even a "Flash Crash" can take the market down.
    As I was monitoring my (NYSEARCA:NUGT) today, I was monitoring Gold as well. I bailed out of my RL position at ~143.55. Only a few $ gain, about 2x what my Broker made, but still a profit. That's about $39 more than I had when I woke up.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    @OAG
    There are also a number of studies out there showing an inverse relationship between Management fees and performance-Meaning the funds charging the highest fees underperformed their peers, not to mention the Indexes.
    And don't be fooled by Morningstar ratings. Every Prospectus says "Past performance is no guarantee..." While Morningstar ratings are based upon Past Performance, and NO OTHER METRIC!
    Lastly, Ignore any Analyst who works for or closely with any institution who trades, or is paid by companies that trade. For example, S&P is funded by the companies they rate. Those Analysts have a fiduciary duty to their employer, and none to the Retail Investor. Often companies like Banks are doing business with companies that they are rating, and admit it in the fine print of their research report that there may be a conflict of interest. READ the Fine Print in analysts reports! Many such analysts firms hold positions counter to the analysts recommendations. They want you to buy what they are selling, or visa-versa.
    22 Aug 2014, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    @User 7415181
    At least this is an ETF and not a Mutual Fund. While they are successful at tracking the S&P 500 very closely, during the July correction, you were just along for the ride. If you cannot get in and out of this position, any further corrections will hurt you.
    That is one of my major beefs against MFs, you cannot get out during the day on a big pullback.
    The dividend of this ETF, while small, appears safe, so no worries about an immediate reduction of Dividend.

     

    Sorry to hear that you are stuck in such a limiting 401K If VTI is the best of them, you maybe should invest any money that your company doesn't match into a Roth IRA or an independent 401k, which you maybe can open in a spouse's name if you are married.
    I'm not a Tax Adviser, so you would need to research any possibility of another 401K, but I do know that if you have Earned Income, you can open a Roth IRA with post Tax money, but gains in such are not taxed until you take disbursements. If you have children, you can also open 539 Educational funds. Again consult a Tax Expert. I always use a Tax Lawyer instead of preparers like Block. When the IRS sees a Lawyer's name as the preparer, they are far less likely to Audit you, as they know you will walk in with Legal Representation.
    Here is how I evaluate an ETF or Mutual Fund:
    VTI Expense Ratio great at .05%
    However "It's up and just keeps moving up". As shown below, this July was BAD, dropping ~30% of it's YTD gains. which were mediocre anyway The NAV has gone up ~$.50 in the last 30 days. If we see the long predicted correction, this ETF will give you a beating if you cannot get out.
    Year-to-date
    Market Return as of 7/31 4.87%
    NAV Return as of 7/31 +4.89% MoM fom July, ~-28.6%
    Market return as of 6/30 +7.00%
    NAV return as of 6/30 + +6.98%

     

    Top Ten Holdings - Would I buy these top ten?
    AAPL Apple Inc Technology +25.50% 2.69% <Not right now, it's overbought>
    XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Energy -1.90% 1.99% <probably>
    MSFT Microsoft Corp Technology +20.88% 1.50% <yes for the Dividend and other reasons>
    JNJ Johnson & Johnson Healthcare +13.76% 1.32% <no, It's Beta is too low to present buying opportunities. I would have 2-3 weeks ago on it's pullback though>
    WFC Wells Fargo Financial Services 2.97% 1.25% <It's buyable on it's current pullback>
    GE General Electric Co Industrials -5.71% 1.18% <Never, Bad management and too much litigation>
    CVX Chevron Corp Energy +2.42% 1.15%< Yes if only for it's Dividend>
    BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B Financial Services +15.39% 1.02% <OK for slow growth>
    JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co Financial Services +0.03% 1.02% <No, WFC is way better>
    PG Procter & Gamble Co Consumer Defensive +2.30% 0.98%< Missed the Buy opportunity on last Dip.>
    Overall, not a bad portfolio, but a more actively managed ETF could have made a lot more. I guess it's OK for a 401K, but this is one to avoid on market Dips.
    23 Aug 2014, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    OAG,

     

    Agree with all you said. I'm vested now, so I contribute to what the hospital will match. I have a Roth and a taxable account that excess money goes to. I buy very different types of investments in those.

     

    If it wasn't for the 50% match, I would not be buying vtsmx. I kind of look at it as having an instant 50% gain, which mentally makes a difference for me if we go into an ugly market.

     

    I aslo don't evaluate the nav of the fund so much. I like the long term moving average - helps filter out the noise. That's what I meant by "keeps going up". I'll get worried if the price of the fund gets close to the moving average and will probably switch into a bond fund if the price goes below it.
    24 Aug 2014, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    Error in my above comment - should have been addressed to OW.
    24 Aug 2014, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    OW,

     

    I agree entirely. I took over my accounts about 3 years ago and have learned a wealth of information in that time. I started just as you mentioned above by allocating about 1.5k to a position. Started with stocks like (NYSE:MO), (NYSE:SO), (NYSE:WEC), etc... Seeing that 5% commission right off the bat each time I sent in a check to the mutual fund broker got old real fast. Lately I've moved to a 'blended' approach with good old blue chip DGI's, high yield positions, and what I see as unloved undervalued positions. I use the income thrown off by the high yielders and undervalued to fund future DGI purchases. I recently used dividend income to fund a starting position of 20 shares in (NYSE:PG) on 6/24 at a limit of $79. That purchase paid me a dividend of $12.87 on 8/18. It's not difficult and like you said you can learn how to DIY if you just take the time.
    24 Aug 2014, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    Certainly the 50% match will ease the pain of corrections.
    You should be able to switch it out to a Bond Fund in case of a correction before it loses anywhere near that 50%. In a correction like 2008, cash would be even better since you can buy back in at a lower price once the correction is over.
    Since you have a Roth, if you want to be a more active investor, I can point you to the site where I'm getting my Data, and show you around some. I can even give limited "Guided Tours" inside the site via Skype, or even Ventrillo if you have a Mic so we can talk. You would not need to show my your screen or Video, I would share my screen as I explain things.

     

    This goes for anyone interested in learning how predictions of the Market Makers can be analyzed to see which stocks will hold up. If you have noticed, I have not had any "Bad Days" in my Challenge Portfolio, even on the days the Market fell.

     

    If anyone is interested, message me please. It will cost you nothing but some time.
    24 Aug 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yellen Vs. Putin - Who Wins?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    23 Aug 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » REMEMBER WHEN I POSTED THAT ONCE WE SENT "ADVISORS" OVER TO THE MIDDLE EAST IT WOULD ONLY ESCALATE FROM THERE?

     

    Well he we go !!

     

    U.S. Considering Taking Fight Against Islamic State Into Syria!!!!

     

    http://huff.to/1pqoS1H

     

    Why can't we just keep our noses out of this. Plus did anyone even know of those detained journalist? One who was beheaded ? This seems like it just went around in a circle and is starting all over again.

     

    Next.. Do we now more send advisors (special ops ) or will it be aircraft carriers and boots on the ground disguised as something else ?

     

    BTW... Can CNN already stop the massive coverage of Ferguson already ? I think we have more important issues to learn about . Or were they told to stay away from those topics ?
    23 Aug 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3086) | Send Message
     
    Its a little late for that. Once you kick a hornet's nest it's hard to put them back in. OBL's stated goal was to see an American invasion and occupation of an oil rich Arab country which he hoped would trigger precisely what we are seeing today in Middle East not just in "Iraq". Libya's not get any press but reports are both Egypt and UAE warplanes have been bombing the militants who now control Libya. Tough to put the genie back in the bottle after you let it out. OBL accomplished his mission.
    23 Aug 2014, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JUNE

     

    Here's my take. This POTUS is going to stretch this little "war game" of his out a few years , sit back, do a little bombing here and there. Then hand this mess over to either Hillary, who he loves or the Republicans.

     

    He is personally in a no lose situation for himself. Can't get re elected !!

     

    I read an article years ago where these militants said "We might not be able to beat the USA militarily, but we can defeat them FINANCIALLY !!"

     

    Read that after 9/11 and like I have said a decade is just a speck of time in History. They have patience, more then we do. They , I am sure, have been planning something for a long time now.

     

    Just look at the great job we did in Iraq !! Kids died for no reason. Just like Viet Nam... History repeats over and over..
    23 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ALL I CAN SAY IS WOW !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    They just keep sticking it to us !!
    25 Aug 2014, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I POSTED THIS IN THE CHALLENGE CHAPTER BUT THOUGHT IT MIGHT STRIKE A CONVERSATION HERE !!

     

    Here are some facts about the metals... I am no gold bug but I do seriously wonder why I should not own something that is obviously disguised.. A quote from another poster !!

     

    "The price of silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is currently about 8% above the LBMA price for silver. Moscow is even bigger. On the Moscow Exchange the price of gold is 16% above the LBMA price and silver is 16.8% above.

     

    The countries accumulating large quantities of gold/silver are willing to pay a premium above the phony LBMA posted price in order to get their hands on real metal."
    25 Aug 2014, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    The problem as I see it, is that the Public has always thought that the prices of PM's were an open market with supply/demand establishing the price. Until the recent scandal in Europe, I had never heard of a committee of Bankers setting the daily price of silver or anything else. It makes me wonder what other commodities are "Price Fixed". I'm just glad I never tried to trade in them. Between the LIBOR, Silver, whatever, manipulations can be about anywhere and we never hear of them.
    25 Aug 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it's time for the few of us left holding any metals to exit. A reliable source has highlighted several areas showing the economy is "rock solid". http://on-msn.com/VOHPiy

     

    Enjoy the short article, but ignore all of the negative comments below the article. One can only assume that these cranky comments are coming from the 6.2% unemployed, and not from the 93.8% that are not on that 6.2-list.
    25 Aug 2014, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4005) | Send Message
     
    I know the cause of 6.2% unemployment.... If it were not for "red tape", the U.S. would be at full employment at all times.

     

    I have seen the enemy, and they enemy is government.
    25 Aug 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3681) | Send Message
     
    IT,Tangible assets are the way wise people "Hold" on to their savings .
    25 Aug 2014, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WELL MY (NASDAQ:PSEC) TOOK IN ON THE CHIN TODAY !! DOWN OVER 3% SO FAR. HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    IT, you should have jumped on (NYSE:PER). It looks like it is ready to rebound post quarterly ex-dividend.
    26 Aug 2014, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Talk to me more about (NYSE:PER). !!
    26 Aug 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    IT, Quite honestly, I have not spent any time on (NYSE:PER), or a few other of the SandRidge trusts, (NYSE:SDR), & (NYSE:SDT). I did notice that these trusts have paid some high dividends, but it looks like their share prices have dropped to more than compensate for the generous dividends.

     

    At first blush, these trusts are not getting any buy signals from the pros, but they all had a decent day today. Maybe their time to stabilize or grow their share price is on the horizon?
    I haven't really spent any time looking at high dividend stocks or funds, but I probably should start taking notice. I am still waiting on the sidelines to go long in the market post next correction. http://on.mktw.net/YWNKUS
    Kudos to OW in the challenge and his insightful posts as to what moves he is making in the IT challenge, and his offer to help any/all of us using his market strategies.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    Small to micro caps on those SandRidge trusts, too.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In my RLP I am still sticking with my (NASDAQ:PSEC). Of course my timing in the challenge is always perfect as I added almost 15% to it only to see it drop by 3% today.

     

    However I think it still may be a long term buying opportunity. Glad I have a small% in other BDC'S and TACK had advised me to even look at (NYSEARCA:BDCS) as a way to get exposure to ALL of them.

     

    I see that OW seems to have the magic touch right now. He has offered to walk us through a site that I think has a family connection but who cares. It seems to work and I might take him up on the offer after the Holiday weekend

     

    Maybe he will elaborate on the strategy involved ??
    26 Aug 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    I know you have been a big supporter of (NASDAQ:PSEC). I think this looks pretty solid. I will keep an eye on that one.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    First off, there is no family, nor financial connection.
    I was approached about 2 years ago to be a Beta Tester for BlockDesk.com because I had offered posts that they thought were well thought out, and coincided with their philosophy. They are themselves a family owned and operated business; but I am not a part of that family.
    Peter F.Way has posted many articles about his strategy and those interested should read his Bio and philosophy at the FAQ at Blockdesk.com.
    Essentially what he does is track the hedging activities of the Market Makers. These are the biggest players who move the markets daily. From what they pay to hedge positions that they have to take in order to provide Market Liquidity and how they structure those hedges; he determines what they believe a stock is worth, and going to be worth over the next~3 months. His forecasts are based upon >10 years of such tracking.
    While Beta Testing his site and seeing how accurate his predictions are, I began trading based upon those predictions, and have never regretted it. Not every trade is a blowout, in fact, only about half of the stocks I have bought have hit their Price Targets within 3 months; but the vast majority are at least profitable at the end of that time. Only a few lose money.
    Trades are made with disciplined price or Time targets, the time being 63 Market days or about 3 months on average. Any stock that has not hit it's PT by that time is closed out, win or lose, and the money deployed into other positions that are predicted to be among the most profitable.
    In my research, I have taken it to the next level, with increasingly convincing evidence in my second Blog ( at http://seekingalpha.co... ) that the "Pick-of-the-Litter" are stocks that stay in the "Buy" range for more than 1 day.
    The information you get and how to use it is explained in my Blog at http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    What I am doing and how is no secret, it is explained fully in his FAQ and my Blogs are kind of a Primer of how to use these tools. It does require one to be more proactive in their investing; and to change the erroneous thinking that "Buy and Hold" is the only way to build wealth. Beta is not a proxy for risk, but rather is where the opportunities lay.
    Please read the FAQ at Blockdesk.com, and look at my research in my Blogs.

     

    Blockdesk.com is now open to Retail Investors to purchase the daily top ten investments, along with the usage of a sufficient number of tools to chose the investments best for you. I am always available as well to clarify any questions that might arise in your minds. The first list I purchased has already produced 3 stocks that sold at their Sell Targets, and paid for itself many times over. I have made all my purchases in this Challenge based upon either the List I used in my Analysis Blog, or the list I purchased since they opened, with the exception of (NASDAQ:BWEN) (which made me only about $280 in this Challenge, and NUGT which I let myself be talked into here and lost the ~280 that BWEN had made me). I made my first purchases in this challenge only 20 days ago. A rough annualization of my returns is ~175%.
    This method is especially good for investors new to "Do-it-yourself" investing, as the majority of the DD has already been done by the Market Makers.

     

    I look forward to hearing from some of you in my Blogs if questions remain after you read them.
    26 Aug 2014, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OW

     

    Thanks for filling us in.! It seems to be working just fine for you right now.

     

    Can you give us an idea of the cost structure? Do they recommend what to buy or does the investor have to?
    26 Aug 2014, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    As of the last time I visited the products page, for $50 they give you a list of that day's top ten most promising stocks as of approximately 1 hour after the Market closes. This is called an "Intelligence List", and is as close as they will say as a recommendation. Since Peter is actually a CFA, he could call them recommendations, but I am not and thus cannot. Along with that you get a number of Tools to track the list and evaluate which of the ten best suit you. I personally want to see a stock stay in the "Buy" range (87% or greater chance of hitting it's projected PT) for more than 1 day.
    As I say in my Blog, I would, on the 2nd day that I have Data, buy up to 4 of the 10 that stayed buyable. Then after 2-3 more days, add 2-4 more if they still look good. Others may just want to spread their money equally over all 10. I discourage this, but that is my own opinion, not that of BlockDesk.
    I have to emphasize that I am giving only my own OPINIONs, and the investor is solely responsible for their own money. I cannot stress enough that you read their FAQ before spending any money.
    The Tools and their use is in my Blogs.
    27 Aug 2014, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Good morning ! Hi !
    Been kinda over loaded.
    Crade i took you cautions on (NYSE:SDRL)tks.
    27 Aug 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DOES THIS REALLY ADD UP ? WHY ARE INTEREST RATES FALLING ?

     

    "Treasury yields continue unexpected 2014 slide"

     

    A series of strong economic reports (Q2 GDP, jobless claims, home sales) is failing to halt the decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which slips another four basis points to 2.32%. The German 10-year Bund yield is lower by two basis points to 0.89%.

     

    At issue today is Ukraine's assertion the Russian military has invaded the country. "It's more overt now," says a senior NATO military officer, and NATO reports "well over" 1K Russian troops are inside Ukraine, with another 20K just across the border in Russia.
    28 Aug 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    What we need is another series of Robert Wagner SA articles highlighting $7-800 gold, along with his explanation of how the good economic reports, and great FED intervention has contributed to all of this good news. He could then also explain why the treasuries are falling and why the dollar is rising. He might even have some insight to the Russia/Ukraine situation and some of the other global conflicts, and their impact as well.

     

    Somebody tell Robert to back off of his SA focus on the weather, and come back and write articles on and discuss gold, the FED, and the economy.
    28 Aug 2014, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    On a lighter note, and speaking of weather, could you imagine if you tuned in to your local news channel, and all of the sudden, they introduce the weather & forecast, and Avi's kisser turns up on the TV as substitute weatherman!?!?

     

    I can just imagine myself, sprawled out on the recliner, watching intently to the weather/forecast, and after it is finished, my wife calling out to me from the kitchen, "honey, is it supposed to rain tomorrow? Or the day after?"

     

    Now how exactly would I answer her question based on the TV forecast I just watched??? And worst part is, Avi would be on the tube the next night taking credit for his accurate prediction from the night before.
    28 Aug 2014, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    OK I'm dumb. Who/what is Avi?

     

    Second question maybe more important. If you have enough money to buy a T-Bill, why would you buy a German 10 year over a US at > 2.6 times the interest rate?
    As you can tell, I don't follow Bonds Prices, only hear them talk the yield. I know the price moves opposite the yield; but with the German down below 1%, how much higher could the price go?
    My working assumption is that people buy Bonds for safety and since they draw interest are usually preferred to PMs when the PMs are so range-bound. Is the Euro really 2.6 times as safe as the Dollar? With half the Eurozone staring blankly at either austerity or bankruptcy, and the other half having to scramble to find energy that may get shut off by Russia at any time they want, why the Euro???
    BTW Gold hasn't moved all evening, and tomorrow's index futures are looking positive.
    Today just wasn't enough of a dip to buy into unless you are moving millions.

     

    Lastly, Is that Robert Wagner the aging actor? I guess I should look him up and tell him " Surf's UP!!.
    29 Aug 2014, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    OW, As to who/what Avi is, here is his SA profile: http://bit.ly/1n3tVRf
    Avi "whipsaw Gilburt" posts SA articles, *and on other websites* typically weekly, over the weekend, and makes his predictions on the direction of (NYSEARCA:GLD) primarily for trading. His articles frustrate some readers & commenter's, with his elliott wave theory that he uses to forecast the market movements. As you will see if you check any of his articles, he has a soft touch for rebutting any comments that counter his methods, comments, or posts.

     

    As for the T-bills & bonds, and all of the other government debt tools, I don't have a good explanation, but I do review various websites to try and gain a basic understanding of how this all works. I support your assumption that investing in to government bonds is done historically for safety and protection against actual and perceived falling stock prices. Globally, I would say that the US probably still has one of the cleanest dirty t-shirts in the laundry pile right now and still attracts foreign investment into bonds & treasuries.

     

    As for Robert Wagner, the average person may know him as that 84-year old actor on TV & the movies. On SA, many of us know him as the aging SA author/commenter that used to write inspiring articles predicting a large collapse in the gold/pm prices from where the current price range is now. http://bit.ly/1n3tTZA Robert has not posted an article on this since April 1, but he does have a passion and intelligent position with regard to the global warming crisis that is apparently threatening this planet.

     

    29 Aug 2014, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OAG

     

    Actually once of his 5 scenarios turned out to be correct . Like if it did rain on one of those days I am sure he would start the broadcast off with "I NAILED IT"
    29 Aug 2014, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    I guess our "Mercs" were better than the Russian trained Ukrainians.
    28 Aug 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    As for the Ukraine, I wonder if Russia would go ballistic if the Ukraine Gov took the words of those 10 Russian Paratroopers that were captured, that they are Ukrainian, and try them for treason with the possible death penalty? Think those troops would rather face a firing squad than admit that they are Russians?
    Now an even dumber question. Why is POTUS going to a NATO meeting to discuss Russia, when the Ukraine isn't in NATO? How about he just tells Europe that it's their problem. "Call me if they attack a NATO country". While WW2 was really necessary for our interests, That is the only war since the Civil War that we really had any business participating in.
    I saw a lot of pretty nasty stuff in Viet Nam, and War is no game. "Old soldiers never die. Young ones do!"
    29 Aug 2014, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN ? ANOTHER LEHMAN MOMENT ??

     

    http://bloom.bg/1n4E6Fh

     

    How would Russia respond ?
    29 Aug 2014, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN WHAT THIS GOFO MEANS FOR THE PRICE OF GOLD ??

     

    http://bit.ly/1rHOJVB

     

    Thanks!!
    31 Aug 2014, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    IT, In "normal" situations, I would think that this current contango would be a signal to short the gold futures, and would probably signal short to intermediate weakness for gold. But does gold move the direction of this and other fundamentals?

     

    I did check into several past SA articles on contango/backwardation, along with other blogs and websites, and probably the one that I found most relevant is this one from July, 2013, http://bit.ly/17fnwe6

     

    Over the past year or so we have experienced gold in backwardation, which is a signal for a major bottom for gold. Although I feel we have seen a bottom in gold, we have only seen a few small rallies and pullbacks in the gold price since backwardation.

     

    My take on the backwardation we saw, was due to physical shortage of gold which was in part the result of the heavy selling of gold on the futures market that has continued to occur, in particular, the disproportionate large volumes of contracts that get sold within a few minutes time and typically in that 8-8:30 am in the market which blows through the bid stack and trips the hedge fund sell stops along with it. With the low price, physical buying, particularly in the east, has absorbed much of the mining supply and also last year had absorbed a sizable portion of ETF & Comex gold inventories.

     

    Right now, the US is nearing the end of QE tapering and we should be QE-free, temporarily. The US dollar index is close to $83.00 and the 10-year treasury at 2.34%, both at 52-week highs. I am thinking that this recent surge in the US Dollar has pushed gold futures temporarily into contango.

     

    Backwardation did not have a significant effect on gold price so far imo. Will this current contango signal a falling gold price? Is gold in a "normal" market cycle that will follow the fundamentals of contango?

     

    I am more interested on the impact of all of this on the overall economy. How much higher will the US Dollar index rise? Where is the 10-year treasury heading with the end of QE? With the higher dollar, will we start seeing US manufacturing jobs shrink from their current employment levels? How long will the US continue QE-less? Will a new program be up and in place by the first of the year to resume inflating the money supply?

     

    I'm still in the camp that believes gold has reached its bottom. I do think that the short to intermediate range could take gold back up near $1,400 and that we are currently near the low end of the range. A gold price below all-in sustaining cost for the miners would likely cause a supply issue while demand would remain strong or increase with lower prices of any duration to a sub $1,200 gold price bringing a more rapid conclusion to this game.
    1 Sep 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    "Contago" means it never has been "Manipulated" nor never will "be" Actual gain or thru "put" depends on the "Due diligence" of the holder & providers of data are not responsible for the actions of the "Investor/Trader"whether they be third parties or independent sources,It is so but not necessarily & may not apply to you.
    1 Sep 2014, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    In other word's probably a 20% drop to spike the stuff.
    1 Sep 2014, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    But gold should never go into backwardation like it has done a few times over the past year or so, as a result of manipulation.
    1 Sep 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » THIS DIDN'T HELP ME ONE BIT !

     

    Contango is when the futures price is above the expected future spot price. Because the futures price must converge on the expected future spot price, contango implies that futures prices are falling over time as new information brings them into line with the expected future spot price.
    •Normal backwardation is when the futures price is below the expected future spot price. This is desirable for speculators who are "net long" in their positions: they want the futures price to increase. So, normal backwardation is when the futures prices are increasing.

     

    HUH ????
    1 Sep 2014, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    IT & OAG does it sound like a set up for a short ?
    On a lite side happy labor day one & All !
    1 Sep 2014, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    IT
    Those are the best definitions I have yet seen for those 2 words. I have seen people throwing "Contango" around without ever defining it. If that definition is correct, then the banks are willing to loan more money against gold than it's expected future spot price is. Loaning more money against collateral for an amount over the real value of the collateral is not unusual for Banks, they charge interest to make up the difference. My understanding after reading that earlier referenced article is that the GOFO price is what those like 7 big banks will loan against gold holdings. It's not the price of the gold, only it's loan value. Let's assume that the banks charge 6% interest against an ounce of gold, to be repaid in 6 months (for easy calculations). That means that they expect the spot price to be close enough to the value of the loan after 6 months that the customer (who has been making payments on the interest at 1/2%/month, or a total of 3% of the loan), will repay the loan rather than give the bank the collateral (the Gold). A person like me would not get that low an interest rate for a "Signature Loan", but would with collateral worth maybe 50-90% of the loan value, depending on my credit rating.
    Few people would sell a Futures Contract on their gold (or stock) unless they felt that they would be getting a Premium over what their instrument is worth, or will be worth when the contract expires. Options are a Guessing Game of future valuations, and thus should only be played by people with a lot more knowledge than I currently have.
    2 Sep 2014, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    I should say that that is the best definition of Contango I have heard. As for Backwardization, I'm not so sure about that. I would think that backwardization means that the price of something is falling. That's why I never use those words, I say what I mean, and don't use words I don't understand.
    2 Sep 2014, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Backwardization is the better position to be in if your going long,future spot is higher,contago,leave that to the experts.
    4 Sep 2014, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    "Gold & Real Estate" was and still is,victims of the "Melt down".
    1 Sep 2014, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HERE COMES SEPTEMBER !!

     

    My Rankings, Username, Cash Balance, Market Value, Initial Portfolio Value, Current Portfolio Value, Return

     

    1 OldWarrior -91,037.35 200,762.44 100,000.00 109,725.09 9.73%
    2 cbowman 168.55 105,394.20 100,000.00 105,562.75 5.56%
    3 JohnBinTN -24,249.77 128,008.10 100,000.00 103,758.33 3.76%
    4 MadcapLaughs -34,191.55 137,480.81 100,000.00 103,289.26 3.29%
    5 crademan 12.79 102,855.27 100,000.00 102,868.06 2.87%
    6 User7 2,062.36 100,767.87 100,000.00 102,830.23 2.83%
    7 Carl2014 3,258.07 99,086.00 100,000.00 102,344.07 2.34%
    8 EconomicAnalyst 9,200.33 92,833.96 100,000.00 102,034.29 2.03%
    9 Cwinn 769.48 112,200.44 100,000.00 100,949.92 0.95%
    10 JohnWilson 91,128.44 9,147.00 100,000.00 100,275.44 0.28%
    11 nocnurzfred 240.64 99,725.00 100,000.00 99,965.64 -0.03%
    12 Interesting 60.67 99,894.15 100,000.00 99,954.82 -0.05%
    13 deercreekvols 27,503.65 69,974.00 100,000.00 97,477.65 -2.52%
    14 justin 17,814.56 77,505.50 100,000.00 95,320.06 -4.68%
    15 kanwar99 9,061.56 192,866.00 100,000.00 85,237.56 -14.76
    1 Sep 2014, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    The banks as groups & individuals win because of volume,due diligence and appropriate quiet allocation of the nest egg.Really Boring stuff but it grows moss.

     

    If in the a said interest Gold will appreciate and only then.
    2 Sep 2014, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ANYONE WANT TO COMMENT ON THIS ? CAN IT REALLY HAPPEN ? THE GOLD AND SILVER GUYS MIGHT SHED SOME LOGHT ON THIS . DO WE HAVE A BLACK SWAN COMING ?

     

    http://bit.ly/1sXbbGe
    2 Sep 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    War is not likely with BHO as POTUS.
    http://bit.ly/1lGx12D Some people may overlook his talent in the area to preserve and promote world peace.

     

    Many people give him credit for facilitating all of the positive changes that have turned around this economy since 2009.
    http://bit.ly/1lGx1PS 10-million new jobs and by almost every measure of the American economy, workers are better off since BHO was sworn in.
    2 Sep 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SO ARE WE GOING TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT THESE BEHEADINGS ?

     

    This is just sickening !!
    2 Sep 2014, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    I was aware of ISIS last year when I was whining on this site that we shouldn't be bombing Syria (kudos to me - Assad's bad but he's not as evil as these animals). I knew they were bad (like eating human organs on video), but didn't really super-start paying attention until I heard they overran Mosul last June. About a week before the first journalist's video was put out, I finally watched one of their "promotional" videos complete with music. This video was quickly taken down by Youtube, but was saved and posted on a Russian blog that I drop by.

     

    The first minute or so showed what appears to be Iraqi soldiers and civilians rounded up and begging for their lives. The next minute or so was ISIS shooting a bunch of guys in a ditch. The next minute was one guy after another being pulled up to the edge of a river and shot in the head and tossed in. I quit watching at that point and I believe there was two minutes of footage left that I didn't watch.

     

    Give or take, that was about 100 people executed in just two out of the three minutes I watched.

     

    I have not watched the beheading videos because I'm still disturbed by the one I partially watched.

     

    These people are bad. Like Khmer Rouge bad. If allowed to spread, it will be Hitler or Stalin bad.

     

    I tend to be an isolationist, but in this case I'm fine with Obama bombing them as much as he likes. My problem is that he's not bombing them enough.
    2 Sep 2014, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » USER

     

    When we had beheadings about 10 years ago I actually watched one at work. Still to this day I am haunted by this savage act. I remember almost throwing up.

     

    I could care less if the POTUS leveled the Middle East to be honest. He MUST respond somehow. Letting this go unpunished is unacceptable imo..
    2 Sep 2014, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    In my change of careers, when I quit driving a semi to go to school, during my first semester, I met a guy at a party who was also a truck driver. He told me about how much contract truck drivers could make in Iraq and invited me to join him in signing up. About $80K a year. I actually mulled that over for a bit but decided that I would continue with school.

     

    That would have been late 2004, about a month or so before the first kidnap-beheading videos started.

     

    I'm kind of glad that I didn't go, but that would have been a good chunk of change!

     

    No, Obama won't do anything substantial. All show, no blow. Amateur hour.
    2 Sep 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let's not forget 9/11 is just around the corner !!
    2 Sep 2014, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    And nearly a dozen missing commercial airlines have gone awol recently. http://bit.ly/1pIOmZu
    3 Sep 2014, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those true gold bugs a lurker wants to understand why prices are dropping with all the Middle East unrest. I only have a % of my portfolio in physical and would like to know as well.

     

    Still learning !!
    2 Sep 2014, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    As for war, I have had my fill of it thank you. I don't need to see atrocities on TV or in videos; I still see the real things almost every night in my nightmares from my 27 months in Viet Nam. I saw combat at an intensity not seen since the Korean War, nor in any conflict since. I flew in the invasions of both Cambodia in 1970, and Laos in 1971 in Lam Son II, and into many fights never given names. I applaud Obama only for not getting us into another hopeless battle in which there cannot be a winner; certainly not us. He has only 2 choices once involved. Either use the massive force necessary to sterilize the contested areas and be criticized for his cruelty (as the US was for The"Highway to Hell" in Gulf 1), or do less and be criticized for not doing enough. The only way to win is not play the game.

     

    Frankly, in case no one has noticed, it does not matter how many terrorist organizations we destroy, more just pop up to take their place. As long as people use either Religion or Dogma as a justification for killing, there will be new radicals who believe that they are saving people by killing them, or saving villages by destroying them. We cannot save the world from itself; the best we can do is lop off the worst of the bad vines occasionally.
    I personally cannot understand how people with education, like the guys from the US and Brittan who are fighting for Isis, can adopt such a radical thought pattern as to buy into such psychotic actions, and believe them acceptable. There is no punishment that would ever deter these people, they somehow need to be completely removed from the Gene Pool.

     

    The real problem though from my perception that we CAN address, is that these Sunni's are being funded, and which nation in that region can do that? There is only one-Saudi Arabia. Their paranoia of the Shiite sect is so great that they are willing to support Isis, and no one has the cajones to call them out for fear of an Oil War. Those were not Iraqis in the planes on 9/11, most were Saudi. Not Bush then, nor Obama now, nor will the next president. Not until they run out of oil and thus power and money will they be called to account. I will not live that long, nor might my children; but inevitably that day will come.
    There is the head of the snake; and until their funding is cut, similar groups will only replace however many of the peasants you kill.

     

    IT
    The world does not run on Gold, It runs on Energy. As long as the oil flows, Gold will not be the "Reserve Currency" Oils and Nat Gas are. The US is currently self sufficient in Energy (for the most part) and it is the price of energy that will determine inflation or deflation. As goes the price of energy, so will go the price of gold. Plot the 2 on charts since 1974 (which happened to be when we had our first Oil Crisis, as well as the removal of any semblance of the Gold Standard).
    2 Sep 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OW

     

    You have way more experience then I do pertaining to war. My thoughts are to do what Israel would do. I doubt they would take this laying down. I don't want to see troops on the ground. But a massive airstrike on where Isis is headquarters in Syria would be just fine with me. Civilians will die, but that might slow these radicals down some. We are sending another 350 troops to Iraq . Maybe some will filter into Syria ??? Isolate their headquarters??

     

    Let them hold some of their dead, even some leaders , and maybe they will think twice. Maybe I am off base. But I just can't wrap my head around taking this and doing nothing.

     

    Viet Nam was a war fought to purposely be stretched out. We don't need that here !!

     

    Now as far a gold and oil goes I don't read charts so you might be correct. But I still expect a rise in the price of both ! Gold will get a bounce and I will take my profits and run. However if oil does slow down coming out of the Middle East or Russia the prices will get effected.

     

    I also don't think were self energy efficient just yet either. The oil we produce I read is a low grade quality. Again I can be wrong.
    2 Sep 2014, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    I am only going by what the pundits are saying about our energy independence. I have no first hand knowledge.
    Gold is not exactly lockstep with Oil surges, but there is a huge correlation. The costs of production and distribution of goods is intricately locked with energy costs. That is more of a driver of inflation than any other single cause. Wages were in the days before automation, but repetitive motions are almost all automated now. Even harvesting crops is largely automated by GPS telling the combine where to turn.

     

    And you pray to whatever "Higher Power" you believe in that you never learn as much about War as I. And that you never have to use a cane in the grocery store to pull things off the shelves from a power wheelchair either.
    3 Sep 2014, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    "A lot of big swings off the anvil today ?"
    3 Sep 2014, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Seasonal switch is going on, a few weeks or months out might be too expensive.
    Lowering gold price is a big juicy hedge.
    3 Sep 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OW

     

    Grabbed my tiny profit on (NUGT) this morning and sold it !!
    3 Sep 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    The bond discussion has merit.
    3 Sep 2014, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    OW
    I do agree with your perspective on the situation in Iraq. Especially about the Sunnis and the Saudis. I do remember and perhaps User will concur, that there was a Saudi (a rogue Saudi), funding the anti Assad rebels in Syria last year when Obama wanted to go in and public dissent made him back down. This Saudi may have been responsible for the poison gas that was released upon civilians.

     

    Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is worried about these extremists. Even the liberal socialist press is making the connection that ISIS is Saudi/Sunni backed.
    http://bit.ly/1u29bPE
    Even now, Obama and his cronies don't care about ISIS; they still care more about overthrowing Assad. We can now see that Obama and Kerry LIED last year when they wanted to intervene against Assad last year. They were going to assist rebels trying to overthrow Assad. They were not going to fight against ISIS then. They may possible planed to help ISIS. But now they have changed their story and are saying that if they could have had their way they would have been stopping ISIS. They had no intention of fighting ISIS then. It was and still is all about getting rid of Assad.

     

    If US military intelligence has an IQ of at least 50, they knew that ISIS was preparing to make moves into Iraq and they did nothing. It is almost like Obama did not give a crap after over 4500 service men/women died in Iraq alone. If their deaths were to mean anything, what he let happen is a desecration of their sacrifice.

     

    Also it is about 100 times easier to have prevented ISIS from invading Iraq than it would be to drive them out now. Look at the arsenal of weapons that Obama let ISIS have. Which is it: could Obama be that incredibly stupid, or is he actually that evil? Are the ISIS guys his friends?

     

    Does Obama know what he is doing now? Just look at his results with Libya. Al Qaeda insurgents, or whoever they are, the same people who attacked the Benghazi embassy are now having a pool party at the US Embassy building in Libya. It was a crime to have contributed to overthrowing Qaddafi so these anti-US criminals could take over.

     

    About the beheading – it was done off camera. I did not watch it, but the commentary by those who analyzed it said the beheading on camera was a mock act, and the journalist was probably killed off camera and then his head was later displayed with his body. There is speculation as to who is producing the video and what their motives are. It all points to directing American wrath toward ISIS and creating an imperative for re-engaging in Iraq. I am not against removing the Isis types from the gene pool, but we are being manipulated in the process.

     

    I do disagree with the mass killing of the retreating Iraqi military as they left Kuwait. It goes against all modern military conventions to slaughter retreating soldiers just because they are easy targets and you are able to deliver carpet bombing on them. And then to come along afterwards and kill off the wounded too? That's George HW Bush and his friends for you. Then invite the Shiites to rise up against Saddam and let them get killed too and don't lift a finger.

     

    US policy in Iraq has been and continues to be insane at its best moments and at other times, totally disastrous.
    3 Sep 2014, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3681) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile Obama wants to back up the Titanic and ram the iceberg again. That'l fix it right?
    4 Sep 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    JW,

     

    "I do remember and perhaps User will concur, that there was a Saudi (a rogue Saudi), funding the anti Assad rebels in Syria last year when Obama wanted to go in and public dissent made him back down. This Saudi may have been responsible for the poison gas that was released upon civilians."

     

    Rumors currently are that it's not just one rich Saudi, but rich folks in Qatar and UAE as well. We'll never know who did the gassing. Some evidence it was Assad, some evidence it was a set-up of Assad.

     

    "Even now, Obama and his cronies don't care about ISIS; they still care more about overthrowing Assad."

     

    This is what I don't get and is the most important point. Does the state department, or whoever is telling Obama who the bad guys are, never admit they're wrong and change their minds?

     

    Saddam, Khadaffi. Getting rid of them turned out so well for Iraq and Libya. Assad, but he's proven more resilient. Whoever at the current moment is in charge of Iran. Putin. Wonder how the Chinese will react when the state department turns their eyes on them?

     

    "I did not watch it, but the commentary by those who analyzed it said the beheading on camera was a mock act, and the journalist was probably killed off camera and then his head was later displayed with his body. There is speculation as to who is producing the video and what their motives are. It all points to directing American wrath toward ISIS and creating an imperative for re-engaging in Iraq. I am not against removing the Isis types from the gene pool, but we are being manipulated in the process."

     

    I finally did watch it as Woman did. She was nauseous. Compared to the previously mentioned video I watched (which was not, in my opinion, faked - way too many people being killed explicitly in quick order), this was benign. I would like to hope they offered the guy the choice to be shot if he would read the statement and they would do the head chopping after he was dead.

     

    I have read numerous theories about Isis ranging from an unintended consequence (the one I currenly believe in) to that they were explicitly created by the CIA as some form of masterplot to keep the US perpetually at war, because, you know, Israel and Iran.

     

    Doesn't matter - sometimes people are evil enough that they just need to be removed from the gene pool.

     

    Always enjoy talking with you as we can disagree on things and not get into insult slinging contests. Have a good evening!
    4 Sep 2014, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    I also heard last night about those missing planes from Libya . I wonder how one gets into a plane and flies it away without anyone noticing ? Over 11 of them ?

     

    I mean, please don't tell me we did not see this happening ? No wonder the Brits are on high alert. Any chance they might nail Piers Morgan ?
    4 Sep 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    I never said I agreed with the Mass Killing on that highway. I used that as an example of the severity that would be necessary to comprehensively eliminate future threats, which is not a viable option, nor is killing only a few. That is a waste of time as others will step up. I presented those 2 options as both unfeasible and how impossible it will be to effect any long term change. "The only way to win is to not play". I am strongly against killing absent clear and present threat.
    That murder along that highway was generated by frustration over the failure of the "Left Hook" that was meant to trap the Republican Guard due to timid commanders going in at walking speed. In frustration, the commanders opted to try to destroy Saddam's future threat probability by killing anyone that they could catch. Had that Left Hook operation done their job and surrounded the Republican Guard, it would have had the effect hoped for. That effect being to de-Fang Saddam. While our armor did destroy who they engaged, they really only hit rear guard troops while the other divisions escaped to Basra. Our press declared that "Left Hook" brilliant, and it would have been had the commanders had a Patton in charge, pushing it quickly.

     

    In actuality, it was a miserably managed failure.

     

    The only thing feasible in the current situation would be to cut off the funding of Isis by whatever rich Sunnis are behind them. Saudi Arabia may not be the only source of funds, but certainly were there early and extensively. Saudi Arabia announced even during the last gulf war that the Sunnis needed their support against the Shiites, in order to reduce the threat from Iran.
    4 Sep 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Long term Investors are looking through 2017 for realization, in the media it seems nonexistant or otherwise.Iraq & the subsequent melt down is the cause of our present time dimunition,Adverse parties have taken clear advantage of these "Matter of facts & Conduct"
    4 Sep 2014, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Status Quo seems to be mining for the mother load & holding ground,realizing potential.
    4 Sep 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Dr. Ken Kapur
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    I got Whipsawed on Aug 22. Was going to be long. Instead was short. Since I was expecting a decline I decided to stay short even though my technical analysis said that I should be Long. The result was I got clobbered as I was highly leveraged.
    At any rate I should do OK now as I am 100% short.( Long TZA and Short TNA) With 80% of the advisers being bullish, nobody else is there to go long. The market should have a nice decline from here onwards at least in Sept and OCT.
    ECB Central Bank has now started printing money . It will not create any good jobs and they will end up in a mess in the long run.
    4 Sep 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ordinary Average Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (1160) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Ken, I see MarketEdge seems to be leaning your way. Hoping the real market does not have a sharp correction, but it sure seems ripe.
    4 Sep 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Ken
    I think you are right this time.

     

    There is the extreme bullish sentiment you noted, but there are negative forces in real life among Americans that are reaching a critical TIPPING POINT, (I talk to dozens everyday -govt med ins cust serv.) and the consumer is negative and defensive and they don't trust govt or the market. They are being bled by health ins and med services and on top of that, Joan Rivers died today.

     

    I a little more conservative: Going long (SDS) for RL
    4 Sep 2014, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Ya, miles to go before we rest.
    4 Sep 2014, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    One mistake with this Isis group and the markets will sell off rapidly. The POTUS is either stupid or in bed with them.
    4 Sep 2014, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    "The Atlantic Pipeline"Go Team Go !
    4 Sep 2014, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    IT
    ..and its hard to believe that someone could be that stupid.

     

    Joe "Bitin" Biden is taking the opportunity to make hell-fire speeches though.
    4 Sep 2014, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    It's a battle between the "Gas Giants" for the "Market"
    And the Politicians are the "Pawns" in this Geo-political-economic... positioning.
    4 Sep 2014, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW

     

    Not so sure I want the History books to eventually talk about this administration and what it did to the USA !!
    4 Sep 2014, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • al roman
    , contributor
    Comments (9500) | Send Message
     
    Did tell ya all "fo hosmen" now.
    4 Sep 2014, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (12915) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TIME TO MOVE ON !!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Sep 2014, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3681) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1tdYh6O
    6 Sep 2014, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3681) | Send Message
     
    John, I forgot where we discussed the U.S. OF AMERICA as a corporation. But saw this since that subject came up.
    http://bit.ly/1t08EtN
    25 Sep 2014, 01:33 PM Reply Like
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