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How much can Netflix subscribers grow?

|Includes:Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Netflix revealed double-digit subscriber growth when it reported its Q3 2009 results last Friday.   The company also recently announced a partnership with Sony that will allow Netflix subscribers to stream videos to their TVs through a PlayStation 3 (PS3) gaming console.  We've updated the Trefis price estimate for Netflix slightly from $57.03 to $58.97 to reflect higher subscriber growth and more video streaming per subscriber than we had expected.

Netflix reported an increase of 500,000 subscribers during Q3 resulting in total subscribers of 11.1 million.  The company is expecting 12 to 12.3 million subscribers by the end of 2009, implying at least 900,000 subscriber additions, primarily as a result of the PS3 partnership.  We've updated our Netflix Subscriber forecast to reflect 12 million subscribers by the end of the year since we believe that Netflix's subscriber forecast is already aggressive.

We've also updated our forecast for the Number of Videos Streamed per Subscriber from 1 to about 1.2 as a result of the PS3 partnership and other potential partnerships with consumer electronics manufacturers.  Around 40-42% of Netflix subscribers have tried streaming (up from under 15% in the prior quarter) and a significant portion of them use it on a regular basis.  Netflix also announced plans to launch a streaming-only service in a few countries outside of the US.

You can find additional detail on the update to our Netflix estimate here (scroll down to comments section).

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Stocks: NFLX