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David Beard
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David E. Beard, CFA, founded Winterport Capital in 2008. Prior to founding Winterport, David co-managed a US equity focused long short hedge fund at portfolio at Morgens, Waterfall, Vintiadis & Co. and managed long only accounts at Trainor Wortham, both based in NYC. Previously he worked at... More
My company:
Iberia Capital Partners
  • HI LO List (better format) 0 comments
    Mar 10, 2010 4:28 PM | about stocks: BC, ACAT, ELY, ZNH, CEA, ALK, AAL, CPA, SMCI, STI

    Stock Ticker

    Recent Price

    Market

    Cap.

    Notes:

    BC

    $

    Brunswick – After restructuring, boats and engines account for about 80% of sales, the balance sporting goods and bowling. The company has presented at 3 conferences this month following the Miami Boat show in February. Earnings are estimated to be losses ($2/share in 2010) rebounding to break even in 2011. 14% of the float is short. Net debt totals $324mm against EBITDA estimates of $56mm this year and $220mm next.

     

    ACAT

    Arctic Cat Inc – Best known for its snowmobiles, ATV’s now account for almost ½ its sales. Parts and clothing account for 20%. The balance sheet has about $2.50/share in net cash and earnings have held up ok, as the Dec. Q earned 14c versus a loss in 2008 despite a 25% decline in sales. Estimates call for a modest 3% gain in sales for FY2011.

     

    ELY

     

    Callaway Golf Inc. – A familiar name too many, the company gets about ½ is sales from the US and about 20% each from Drivers, Irons and Golf Balls. After several years of flattish sales, 2009 saw a 15% decline and losses. Estimates are for mid single digit sales growth leveraging into almost 60c/share by 2011. The balance sheet is still solid with over $1/share in cash.

     

    ZNH

    China Southern Airline – After raising $1.6b in Hong Kong and a Morgan Stanley upgrade, the shares have been on a tear from the high teens. Debt at about $6b looks formidable, but the company should be profitable this year and could generate $2b in ebitda in 2012E, assuming 15-20% revenue growth.

     

    CEA

    China Eastern Airline – They announced that they also need to raise money and have sold a joint venture. Industry analysts expect China’s passenger traffic to increase 20% this year

     

     

     

     

    ALK

    Alaska Air – not to be out done, US airlines are showing some impressive operating metrics. ALK said February revenue was up 16% compared with January -3%, load factors in February were 80% and could climb to 87% in March. Thus the street’s $4.20/share eps estimates seem conservative, given the projected loss in the March quarter.

     

    AMR

    American Airlines – Some small announcements today don’t seem to be moving the stock. Rather the global airline group seems strong.

     

    CPA

    Copa Holdings – Panamanian based airline announced February Traffic up 12%, capacity up 3% on March 4th. Their balance sheet is less levered, with net debt = 1x projected EBITDA and the $5.60/share estimate for 2010 has been increasing in the past 4 weeks.

     

    SMCI

    Super Micro Computer – This San Jose, CA based company manufactures servers. Many products claim to offer better performance-per-dollar spent and better performance per –square-foot of computer space. The stock is extended from its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, the recent run might be justified, as SMCI reported a 42% increase in sales in the December quarter and is trading at 16x 2011 EPS estimates with $2/share in net cash on the balance sheet.

     

    STI

    SunTrust Banks Inc. – This Atlanta GA bank is best known for its 56mm shares of Coca-Cola Inc. (KO), yet it trades just over its $19/share tangible book and below its $35/share stated book value. The company has presented at two conferences over the past few days.

     



    Disclosure: no positions in these names at the time of posting
    Stocks: BC, ACAT, ELY, ZNH, CEA, ALK, AAL, CPA, SMCI, STI
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