Djvu's Instablog

Send Message

- Investing style - pure value driven with minimum target returns of 2x in < 1 or max 2 years with lowest possible risk to reward ratio. - Trading Style - My trading bias is mostly only on the short side . i.e buying puts,shorting calls. - Market focus - investing in Indian stocks and... More

My blog:: Saanpaurseedi aka Snakes and Ladders

S&P 500 rallies 11% in 9 days - Bear Market rally or Bottom ? 0 comments

Oct 15, 2011 8:53 PM | about stocks: AAXJ, AGEM, BCYIF.PK, BIK, BKF, BRIL, BRIS, CEW, CNY, DAX, EFZ, EPI, ERO, EU, EUFN, EUM, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWQ, EWZ, FGEM, FXI, GLD, HSXUF.PK, ICN, IFN, INDL, INDY, INDZ, INFY, INP, INR, INXX, ISCHF.PK, IXG, IYF, LTOUF.PK, OIL, PGJ, PIN, SCIF, SCIN, SDS, SGOL, SH, SKF, SPXU, SPY, UDN, UUP, UYG, VFH, XLF, QQQ

This is again an ` technical `attempt to assess if recent rallies in S&P 500 is a bottom or just bear market rallies.

Summary - Too early to call a bottom yet.

Had posted a study based on 3 trading days rallies and then what happens 7 trading days after that.And the finding was that over 80% of the time , we have a negative closing of ~ 3-4% after 7 trading days.

Now we recently had a 3 day rally of +8.4% ( from 4 Oct 2011 intra day low of 1075 ). But it is already 6 trading day - 14 Oct 2011 , after the end of the 3rd closing day (on 6 Oct 2011) and S&P 500 is still at 1225 or +5.1% above.

This makes a 9 trading day rally of +11.4% of S&P 500 from closing of 1099 on 3 Oct 2011 to 1224 on 14 Oct 2011. Now how does this compare with past bear markets ?

Detailed analysis here

Stocks: AAXJ, AGEM, BCYIF.PK, BIK, BKF, BRIL, BRIS, CEW, CNY, DAX, EFZ, EPI, ERO, EU, EUFN, EUM, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWQ, EWZ, FGEM, FXI, GLD, HSXUF.PK, ICN, IFN, INDL, INDY, INDZ, INFY, INP, INR, INXX, ISCHF.PK, IXG, IYF, LTOUF.PK, OIL, PGJ, PIN, SCIF, SCIN, SDS, SGOL, SH, SKF, SPXU, SPY, UDN, UUP, UYG, VFH, XLF, QQQ

Back To Djvu's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Share this Instablog

Tweet

Full index of posts »

Latest Followers

StockTalks

India NIFTY closes 5th straight down week.What happens next? http://bit.ly/GMyrUo INDY ICN INP INR PIN INDL INDA SMIN EPI INXX INCO SCIN
Mar 24, 2012
SPY up +30% fm Oct`11 lows n up +100% in past 3 years.1987 also saw +100% rally.Chart study blog post http://bit.ly/GU7jS6 SPYG SPYV
Mar 23, 2012
S&P 500 up +30% fm Oct`11 lows n up +100% in past 3 years.1984 to 1987 also saw +100% rally.Chart study blog post http://bit.ly/GU7jS6
Mar 23, 2012

mehul57 on Sayaji Hotels open offer by Clearwater Capital - any upside left ? very good analysis ....brilliant
dubai rent on short guru - Chanos " China is Dubai times 1,000 if not a million" According to Jim Chanos, China is 1000 times Du...
manish0007 on Japan `s quake impact on Bonds,Commodities,Stocks not bad but its very bad for globly
Djvu on Timing exit from a bull market -Backtesting Mean Reversion to the 200 DMA - NIFTY NSE INDIA Hmm. Yes. Agree with your point. But I`m still ...
tradeiqin on Timing exit from a bull market -Backtesting Mean Reversion to the 200 DMA - NIFTY NSE INDIA 1) the problem with the above strategy is the e...

Posts by Themes

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.

Djvu's Instablog

S&P 500 rallies 11% in 9 days - Bear Market rally or Bottom ? 0 comments

Share this Instablog

Latest Followers

StockTalks

Latest Comments

Most Commented

Posts by Themes

Instablogged Stocks

Latest Instablog Posts

Top Instablogs