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Paul Hanly
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Paul Hanly, B.Comm, Ll.B., ACA, has 20 years in banking and finance. Paul has experience in major corporate workouts after 92 recession and commercial real estate bust in Australia.
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Thorts On Investing
  • Caution: Major Markets: Sideways, Pennants, Resistance, SMA crosses 1 comment
    Dec 16, 2009 7:03 PM
    Most major international stock markets are in a period of consolidation in their local currency:
    Australia: sideways for 3 months, pennant formation, resistance at 4860, multiple crosses of 50 day SMA,
    China: sideways since 3 August, large pennant formation, resistance at 3475, multiple crosses of 50 and 100 day SMA
    France: sideways since 20 October, pennant formation, resistance at 3875, multiple crosses of 50 day SMA
    UK: sideways since 16 November, pennant formation, resistance at 5385, crosses of 50 day SMA
    Germany: sideways since 14 October, pennant formation, resistance at 5855, multiple crosses of 50 day SMA
    Hong Kong: sideways since 16 November, pennant formation, resistance at 2300, multiple crosses of 50 day SMA
    India: sideways since 20 October, pennant formation, resistance at 17460, crosses of 50 day SMA
    Japan: possible downtrend since 26 August, broadening pennant formation, resistance at 10670, multiple crosses of 50 and 100 day SMA and crosses of 200 day SMA
    Spain: very slight rising trend since 29 September, slightly rising narrow channel, resistance at 1265, multiple crosses of 50 day SMA
    Netherlands: sideways since 20 October, pennant formation with possible upside breakout, resistance at 330, multiple crosses of 50 day SMA
    US S&P 500: essentially sideways since 20 October definitely since 17 November, narrow sideways channel since 17 November, resistance at 1120, crosses of 50 day SMA

    Does evidence of real growth take markets higher, or does fear of stimulus unwind and higher interest rates, US Mortgage resets and falling commercial property values, unemployment and consumer de-leveraging take the markets down in a major correction?

    If there is a major correction, what happens to commodity prices and commodity based currencies like the AUD?

    Is it time to buy out of the money puts and calls on the basis that something has to give?

    (Charts used from Incredible Charts free version: www.incrediblecharts.com)



    Disclosure: Disclosure: Australian Superannuation funds across equities (Australian and international including emerging markets and commodities) and international fixed interest hedged to AUD
    Themes: International Markets Overview
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    Thanks for the overview Explorer. For you and anyone else who visits this insta, I'll give you this link to a chart I put together that shows the Nasdaq (candlesticks), with an overlay of the Greek market (shown in a purple line). The yellow lines on top of the purple Greek market line are only there to emphasize the legs of the move:

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

    It wouldn't take much of a dollar rally to light the fuse for a similar decline in American markets. Judging by the recent action in the dollar, I kind of think the fuse has already been lit. Kind of a wake up call, wouldn't you agree? .

    . .
    16 Dec 2009, 09:41 PM Reply Like
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