Seeking Alpha

AlphaFound's  Instablog

AlphaFound
Send Message
Prior to returning to self-employment, Tim ran International Investment Conferences, a producer of mining investment networking events. He came into the position thanks to a blend of experience in the media and mining industries. He gained a working knowledge of the mining industry as well as... More
My company:
Alpha Found
My blog:
Alpha Found - Opinion & Analysis
  • The three worst investment calls of the decade 0 comments
    Dec 11, 2009 4:57 PM | about stocks: GLD, SLV, OIL, C, GS, JPM, MON, ADM
     ST. LOUIS (Alpha Found) — Time is a nasty opponent of investment prophets and prognosticators. We pick three calls that were hyped-to-the-hilt, but failed-to-the-fullest.

    1. MATTHEW R. SIMMONS, SIMMONS & CO. INTERNATIONAL
    August 2003: Natural gas production will fall off a cliff

    Matt Simmons, CEO of the “world’s largest Energy Investment Bank”, Simmons & Company International, is a fantastic self-promoter, but his energy calls have been of little use to investors. His 2003 statements about American natural gas production falling off a cliff were a complete bust.

    Mr Simmons is a nice guy, and we interviewed him back in 2005 following the publication of his book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. But wrong is wrong.

    Here are the key excerpts from a 2003 interview with Simmons:

    Simmons: As you know, I have been talking for some time about the natural gas cliff we are experiencing. …

    Well, I know you understand it, but people need to understand the concept of peaking and irreversible decline. It’s a sharper issue with gas, which doesn’t follow a bell curve but tends to fall off a cliff. …

    Someone’s going to be left holding the bag big time. If natural gas consumption surges in ten days of excessive heat then it would require almost a complete shutdown of industrial consumption to compensate and protect the grid. As I have been reporting for years now, there isn’t going to be enough gas to run those plants, let alone new ones. …

    Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.

    Just one chart is needed to put Simmons’ prediction on the ash heap of history:

    As Daniel Yergin and Robert Ineson point out in a fantastic article from November, Mr Simmons failed to see what was happening with the ’shale gale’, otherwise known as unconventional gas.

    Yet the natural gas revolution has unfolded with no great fanfare, no grand opening ceremony, no ribbon cutting. It just crept up. In 1990, unconventional gas—from shales, coal-bed methane and so-called “tight” formations—was about 10% of total U.S. production. Today it is around 40%, and growing fast, with shale gas by far the biggest part.

    Horizontal drilling and fraccing have driven the surge in unconventional gas, driving down prices as a consequence. Granted there are many shale skeptics, but the production speaks against the skepticism for now. Peak oilers beware…

    The ramp in production has had a profound effect on reserves:

    Proven reserves have risen to 245 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2008 from 177 Tcf in 2000,despite having produced nearly 165 Tcf during those years. The recent increase in estimated U.S. gas reserves by the Potential Gas Committee, representing both academic and industry experts, is in itself equivalent to more than half of the total proved reserves of Qatar, the new LNG powerhouse. With more drilling experience, U.S. estimates are likely to rise dramatically in the next few years. At current levels of demand, the U.S. has about 90 years of proven and potential supply—a number that is bound to go up as more and more shale gas is found.

    Conclusion: Matt Simmons was exactly wrong. And he does not help his case by trying to justify the “off a cliff” scenario as merely interrupted by shale gas.

    2. BILL MURPHY, GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE (OTCPK:GATA)
    May 2000: “We also told [Speaker Dennis Hastert] that if his Republican friends won the 2000 Presidential elections, the gold market nightmare would blow up on their watch”.

    GATA and its windmill tilting leader, Bill Murphy, have made any number of bad predictions in the course of peddling the gold price suppression conspiracy over the course of a decade. For example, they have repeatedly and repetitively predicted:

    You get the picture; GATA has been wrong over and over and over. But it deserves special mention for the unequivocal prediction that the “gold market nightmare” would blow up on the Republican watch (i.e. Jan 2001 – Jan 2009). Given GATA’s love of politicking, the failure is even more pronounced. Imagine losing a bet with Dennis Hastert!

    3. MICHAEL C. RUPPERT, FROM THE WILDERNESS
    November 2008: Citigroup would collapse because of the Mumbai terrorist attack

    How could we resist adding Ruppert to the mix! Easy now, fellas.

    With fires and shooting still blazing across Mumbai a year ago, Ruppert fired off the hip with this:

    The Achilles tendon of globalization has just been severed.

    Ordinarily, I would go out and start researching to see how bad the exposure is but I already know that it is catastrophic. The markets will do all our research and reporting very quickly for us. Citigroup will be devastated. Its CEO Vikram Pandit, is Indian.

    So let’s see. Citigroup closed at $32.29 on November, 28 2008. The stock continued to rise until December 10, 2008 when it hit $34.77.

    What’s more Pandit is still there.

    Lest we forget, Ruppert’s pessimism was driven by a call on Citi a few days earlier. Mumbai was just accelerant for him. Oops.

    While we’re there, let’s look at Ruppert’s other failed predictions in that same article:

    • “The economy is finished.”
    • “The United States government has committed to bailouts of financial institutions until everything shuts down or there is no more money to”create”. That’s what happens when paradigms end.”
    • By March or April 2009, oil would be $100/bbl and gasoline would cost $3/gal.
    • “J. P. Morgan is the next domino in line”
    • Gold would hit $2,000/oz by March 2009.
    • “I would say that by the end of next summer, as the corn comes in, this nation will be sensing that it is in the grips of something ten times worse than the Great Depression… Shock and Awe. By then you can forget about ethanol. People will be screaming for food. Perhaps Monsanto and Archer Daniels Midland will start to receive some long overdue karmic payback.”

    Nothing holds Ruppert back though. Here’s his doccie trailer. Watch and then start hiking to the seed bank (don’t forget you’ll need a mule an plough because the tractor won’t have gas…).

     

    Today’s investment pundits can be glad the biblical injunction to stone false prophets isn’t held to.



    Disclosure: No Postions

    Disclosure: No positions.
    Themes: Peak Oil, Forecasting, Predictions, Gold Stocks: GLD, SLV, OIL, C, GS, JPM, MON, ADM
Back To AlphaFound's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.