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Mark Seleznov
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Mark Seleznov is the Chief Investment Officer of Seleznov Capital Advisors (SCA). SCA is a SEC registered investment advisory firm that performs advisory services for Mutual Funds, Trusts, 401K plans and Individuals. Mark supervises the asset allocation programs of SCA in a variety of strategic... More
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  • System Trading Plan: Current 50 Day Moving Average Signals for December 21, 2010 1 comment
    Dec 20, 2010 5:24 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA, BKF, PKOL, EEM, XLE, EWY, HHH, INP, IWM, IYR, IYT, IYF, EWG, EWH, ILF, EWW, IJH, EFA, EWA, EWJ, EPP, FXI, IVW, IJR, SLV, EZA, EWT, EWU, OIH, PPH, RSX, SMH, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, RWX, XLB, XME, MDY, XHB, XLK, SLX, USO, JNK, BFK, RSP, DTN, UUP, DBC
    Most Indexes are still above their 50 Day Moving Average.  As I have said often, the 50 day in the shortest moving average method that should be used. I feel that traders would be better using a longer moving average to determine trend.
    We track 29 trading plans and provide Daily Signals for 53 Indexes in our Daily Trading Signal Service  We monitor trading signals for 53 Indexes at www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com  You may also sign up for our Free Weekly Commentary at the top right of our home page at www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
    System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 50 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 50 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
    Other widely followed moving averages are the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays the 65 day moving average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
    Why should you care about the signals produced with the 50 day moving average? There are so many people using the 50 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 50 day moving average.
    The below table shows the current 50 day simple moving average condition on the 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
    Security NameTrend2Ticker
    Barclays High Yield BondStay ShortJNK
    BRIC ISharesStay ShortBKF
    Coal Power SharesStay LongPKOL
    DB Commodity IndexStay LongDBC
    Diamond Trust DOWStay LongDIA
    Energy Select SPDRStay LongXLE
    Internet HoldersStay LongHHH
    IPath India IndexStay ShortINP
    IShare Russell 2000Stay LongIWM
    IShares 25 IndexStay ShortFXI
    IShares AustraliaStay LongEWA
    IShares Basic MaterialsStay LongIYM
    IShares DJ Real EstateStay ShortIYR
    Ishares DJ TransportationStay LongIYT
    Ishares Emerging MarketsStay ShortEEM
    IShares Financial SectorStay LongIYF
    IShares GermanyStay LongEWG
    IShares Hong KongStay ShortEWH
    IShares Latin AmericaNew ShortILF
    IShares MexicoStay LongEWW
    IShares Mid Cap 400Stay LongIJH
    IShares MSCI EAFEStay LongEFA
    IShares MSCI JapanStay LongEWJ
    IShares Pacific ex JapanStay LongEPP
    IShares S&P 500 GrowthStay LongIVW
    Ishares S&P Small Cap 600Stay LongIJR
    IShares SilverStay LongSLV
    IShares South AfricaStay LongEZA
    IShares South KoreaStay LongEWY
    IShares TaiwanStay LongEWT
    IShares United KingdomStay LongEWU
    NDX 100Stay LongQQQQ
    Oil Service HoldersStay LongOIH
    Pharmaceutical HoldersStay LongPPH
    PowerShares US Dollar IndexStay LongUUP
    RussiaStay LongRSX
    RYDEX S&P 500 Equal WeightStay LongRSP
    S&P 500Stay LongSPY
    Semiconductor HoldersStay LongSMH
    SPDR Consumer DescretionaryStay LongXLY
    SPDR Consumer StaplesStay LongXLP
    SPDR Gold SharesStay LongGLD
    SPDR HealthcareStay LongXLV
    SPDR Industrial SectorStay LongXLI
    SPDR International Real EstateStay ShortRWX
    SPDR MaterialsStay LongXLB
    SPDR Metal & MiningStay LongXME
    SPDR Mid CapStay LongMDY
    SPDR S&P HomebuildersStay LongXHB
    SPDR TechnologyStay LongXLK
    Steel Market VectorStay LongSLX
    US OilStay LongUSO
    Wisdom Tree Total DividendStay LongDTD

    You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
    These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
    Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
    We monitor the 50 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
    There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 50 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
    For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
    mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
     
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